September 3, 2025 • 52 mins
Tonight on The Brian Crombie Hour, Brianinterviews Elena Davlikanova and Sgt. Yevheniy Malik to discuss if Putin wants peace? Sgt. Yevheniy Malik is a veteran of Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade and Elena Davlikanova is a senior fellow at the Sahaidachnyi Security Centre and the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
Elena covers recent Russian strikes on civilians, including a deadly missile and drone attack that killed 23 people, while Yevheniy explains Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russian oil refineries and railways to cripple Russia’s economy. Together, they discuss the ongoing war, the need for robust Western support, and their concerns about Russian misinformation. Elena warns that Putin’s goal is not peace but victory, regaining influence by dividing the world and forcing sanctions relief. She argues that without strong security guarantees and European protection of Ukraine’s skies, Russia could escalate toward a wider European war by 2030.
Elena covers recent Russian strikes on civilians, including a deadly missile and drone attack that killed 23 people, while Yevheniy explains Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russian oil refineries and railways to cripple Russia’s economy. Together, they discuss the ongoing war, the need for robust Western support, and their concerns about Russian misinformation. Elena warns that Putin’s goal is not peace but victory, regaining influence by dividing the world and forcing sanctions relief. She argues that without strong security guarantees and European protection of Ukraine’s skies, Russia could escalate toward a wider European war by 2030.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The views expressed in the following program are those of
the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of
Saga nine sixty am or its management.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Believe you and everyone to welcome to the Brian Crombie
Radio Hour. I've got Elena Davlakanova and you're Nick. Oh
my god, this was wrong again. I apologize, mister Malak,
who served in the Ukrainian Forces. I can't pronounce your
first name. I apologize, and maybe you could tell us
all your first name, sir.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
That's okay, don't worry about it. My name is you
have guinea, Ye have guinea Mark.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Yes, remind us of the position you had in the
armed forces.
Speaker 4 (00:50):
Please.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
I'm the veteran of thirty sixth Marine Brigade of Marine
Corporate Ukraine. I was a squad leader sergeant and i'm
letteran of mariol Battle.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
And you spent some time as a pow zachrach.
Speaker 5 (01:11):
Yes, that is two and a half years.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Two and a half years. Unbelievable. Well, thank you very
much for joining us. And Elena, tell us a little
bit about you. I read your article recently that was
talking about this putting really one piece. Tell us a
little bit about your background.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
Please, yes, thank you. We wrote this article in cooperation
with your guinea. My name is Lena Wicanava. I am
a senior fellow with the Center Paypean Policy Analysis. It's
a think tank in Washington, d C. And I'm also
a senior fellow with Sagay Dutchines Security Center. It's a
Ukrainian think tank that works on the ter of Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
So thank you both for joining me again, I really
appreciate it. We're going to give everyone an update on
what's going on in Ukraine, what's going on in peace
conversations if any, or happening between Ukraine and Russia, what's
happening at the front, and what's happening in regards to bombing. Alena,
I understand that there's been quite a lot of bombing
this past weekend in Kiev and even in some western
(02:14):
Ukraine cities. You know, it appears to be in retaliation
for some Ukrainian bombings of Russian oil refineries. Tell me
what's what's going on and what's the what's the damage been,
and what's the loss of life? Ben if you could,
first of all.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
I wouldn't call this a retaliation, because this is what
Russia has been doing for three years. Uh. The strategy
of bombing civilians was adopted by Kremlin since the very start,
and the strategy aims breaking Ukrainian spirit and making Ukrainians
press the government to progress with negotiations and capitulation. Fortunately
(02:56):
this doesn't work, but unfortunately a lot of people are
dying all over the Ukraine. The last shooting was very big.
It was the second biggest attack on Ukrainian civilians, almost
seven hundred drones and missiles. Unfortunately, twenty three people were killed,
four of them were children.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Seven hundred drones and missiles in Kiya.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
I'm telling you about the people who only died in Kia,
and it is very unfortunate that still the whole coalition
and the United States cannot press Putting to stop terrorizing
civilian Ukrainian civilians.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Now, Ukraine has been firing at Russia, but it's been
primarily oil infrastructure and military establishments. Is that correct?
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Yes, absolutely, Ukraine is trying to aim strictly military targets,
for example, plants that produced drones and also oil refiner
is because unfortunately Russia continues to get enough funding for
the war by the selling oil and gas and energy
(04:11):
as well.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Now you know this may be an obvious question, but
let me ask you. If Russia is attacking Ukrainian civilians
and cities, why doesn't Ukraine attack Russian civilians and cities.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
Because, unlike Russians, Ukrainians are civilized. We are a civilized nations,
European nation. We do not kill children, women, elderly people
and men as well just because we can.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Yes, so I would like as the military I would
like to explain, there are probably two options to act
on your enemy. First way the terror attack, which main
aim is to threat people, civilian people so they will
(05:09):
influence the government. That is the way like some kind
of terroristic organizations act for example al Qaeda or Islamic States,
or we see the same action from the Russian.
Speaker 5 (05:27):
Federation, that is the way to act.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Basically, anyone, any kind of organization or government can do this,
but the normal European government. The difference between the European
government and the such dictators is that civilized countries do
not act like this, They do not act like a terrorists.
(05:53):
And there isn't another way to influence your enemy in
a military way, to make a special force operation, to
make deep strikes, against the infrastructure, infrastructure, against the weapon
such as operations spider web we did when we destroyed
(06:16):
Russian's nuclear strategy air jets. So this is the difference
between like normal government and the terroristic government. Russia made
the easiest way. They tried to thread the people, the civilians,
and Ukraine tries to act against the infrastructure. So this
(06:42):
is just the difference of mentality.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
I understand that you're can I call you? Are?
Speaker 4 (06:49):
Is that okay?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
You can call Jena?
Speaker 5 (06:56):
Yes, that's Jena.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I understand that recently Ukraine has disabled, if not destroyed,
a railway link that was built through southern Ukraine to
connect Russia to Crimea. How would you describe that?
Speaker 5 (07:14):
That action?
Speaker 3 (07:17):
That is the common military operation against the infrastructure of
your enemy. You can find such you know, each country
got a military book where it's sat like the way
(07:37):
of act to your enemy against in case of war,
and this is one of way to act against infrastructure.
Everything what can be used to supply enemies army with dimminition,
with the patrol, with the food. Everything has to be destroyed.
So any kind of roads, planes, airports, aiway, seaports, everything
(08:06):
has to be destroyed. This is something what Russians tried
to do in Ukraine also, and this is something what
Ukraine tries to do in Russian territory as well. That
is something what we've seen in Middle East when United
States or other countries used to have war with each other.
Speaker 5 (08:28):
So this is the part of war.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
We've seen recently social media reports of long lineups for
gas in Russia. Do you see that as well? And
I presume that is because of attacks against oil refineries
and gas refineries and things like that. What do you
think of that? Is that a good strategy? And also
I understand drones sent to airports to disturb airflight travel,
(08:58):
so that Russians going on vacation have had two miss
flights and things like that. What do you think of
those two strategies disturbing the gas supply and disturbing the
travel opportunities.
Speaker 5 (09:10):
Yes, thank you for the question. This is a really
good question.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
And I'm glad that you know in Canada, in the
United States you can see this efforts, because this is
really interesting that this is really good strategy. First of all,
Ukraine army disturbs airports, Russian airports, but they do not
bomb them, They just threat and in that case Russia
(09:37):
used this plan as they call it cavor, when they
just destroy everything what is in the air, so they
do not let their planes to go to the sky.
This is so great thing because Moscow is a main
(09:58):
hub of airports directions. In case you want to go
from one part of Russia to another, you go through Moscow.
So in case you threat this Moscow region, basically you
just break all the air connections or all the air
directions of Russian Federation and they cannot use these civil
(10:21):
airports because they don't know how to use it without
a Moscow, you know. So this is the first thing
and we make we just break economy of Russian Federation
with the help of such actions without any victims. This
is first of all. And the second thing is to
(10:44):
break all these ale oil factories. We made it for
a long time period. That was a strategic operation, long
term operation. So for the beginning, no one see the threat,
no one see any kind of problem. But now we
can see the result. This is long term result, and
(11:07):
the result is that nowadays the eastern part of Russia
is without the patrol already, and people don't understand the majority.
What is the result, what is the great result because
eastern part of Russian federation that is something like European
territory or whole United States territory. Can you imagine that
(11:29):
we are living on the planet and we have such
a territory as the United States which is without the
patrol right now, like North Korea, and that was made
in by Ukrainian forces without any victims, and that is
the great result, and the economy influence is really great.
So in case we try to learn the way we
(11:53):
influence each other. Russians are bombing citizens our capital, ye
are killing our people, but it doesn't break our wheel.
It just makes us stronger and more aggressive to the
Russian government. And in Naura action, well you know, in
(12:15):
case Russia oil superpower will be without a patrol, Well
that can I think that can break the will of
civilian people who really don't care about this war and
they don't want to be in it. They just want
to live. And for living, you need a petrol and
(12:36):
they don't have it. And petrol is not just to
use your car. It's all about the economy. So in
case you need your farmers to work, you need a petrol.
In case you need any kind of logistic to work.
You need a petrol. So the petrol is a blood
(12:57):
of economy as we know, and that can works.
Speaker 5 (13:00):
I believe in it.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
We're going to take a break for some messages and
come back in just two minutes with these two individuals
from Kiva from Ukraine talking about both the status of
the war. I want to ask our military expert a
little bit about what's happening on the front lines. We've
just chatted about some issues in regards to how Ukraine
is taking the war to Russia. Finally, and then I
(13:25):
want to understand the front line and what's happening there.
And then Elena who authored co authored a really interesting
article on does Putin really want peace? We're going to
come back with these two individuals in just two minutes.
Stay with us, everyone back into.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Stream US live at SAGA nine am.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Welcome back everyone to the Brian Crowney Radio. I've got
the real pleasure. I've been interviewing again Elena Davinkole, Dave
lik Kanova, davel Kanova and Sergeant Malik. I'm not going
to pronounce his first name because I've done a terrible
job doing so so far. I apologize, sir. Both of
you are very motivated to uh, to tell the world
(14:19):
what's going on in Ukraine.
Speaker 4 (14:22):
Why because our lives depends on that, the date of
our country depends on understanding of our allies what is
going on in Ukraine. Unfortunately, Russia has been doing a
very good job spreading mist information, dis information, influencing minds
of our Western the clips, in academia, in decision making
(14:46):
some and so course, and even after three years of
very intense advocacy work, which not only we are doing,
but there is a very big, very respected community of
Ukrainians for trying to advocate for Ukraine all over the globe,
we still see that there are so many issues that
(15:06):
remain unresolved, and we see that our allies still that
boldness in decision making. And this is why we still
do not have any robust security guarantees. Uh, this is
why we still here from the White House, especially talks
like oh, if these two sides do not show flexibility,
(15:26):
then the United States will let these two smaller children
fight on the playground, which is a very bad comparison
and very cruel comparison. So you know, all in all,
I believe that by trying to preserve Alec country, our homes,
our families, people you know, fellow Ukrainians who lose their
(15:50):
lives every day, not only on the front lines, but
also sleeping, accounting in the events and not waking up. Unfortunately,
we are trying to stop this war and by stopping
and talking about a very robust piece deal that will
guarantee that Ukraine exists on the political lab that it
(16:11):
remains a democratic state, and that we will be able
to continue living here happily.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Ever often, Eleanda, you're a fascinating individual. You've got a degree,
a bachelor's degree in teachers College, then you've got a
master's in English Language and literature. Then you've got a
master's degree in management. Then you've got a PhD from
Sumi State University, and now you're working for this think
(16:40):
tank out of Washington, d C. A senior fellow with
a security center, and then also a visiting scholar at
John Hopkins University. What would you be doing if there
wasn't a war? Would you be teaching English?
Speaker 4 (16:56):
Well, I stopped teaching English a long time ago, fifteen years.
I've been working for international institutions, National Democratic Institute and
then pretty Herbrid's Foundation. So I actually devoted my life
to building Ukraine as a democratic European state. I invested
a lot in helping Ukraine to progress its euro integration path.
(17:19):
So I think that without the world would be probably
much closer to European integration, at least I hope.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
So what was your PhD in? It was on.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
Management, economy and management, but the topic was also connected
to education. It was one of the also European integration
projects on education reform, and it was massive, really adapted
German dual education to Ukrainian realities, and that was something
that I actually devoted ten years of my life to.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
You know, it's fascinating how war can change people's lives, obviously,
I guess, but it's interesting, you know, meeting you and
understanding your incredible academic background and practical background, and now
that you're dedicating your life to informing us all. Mister Malik,
Sergeant Malik, what were you doing before joining your forces?
(18:16):
Before joining the Marine.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Started working. I was a civilian in person. But since
the very beginning of this story, since the year twenty fourteen,
when Russia occupied it cramea and started this war in
then Bass region, I could see that they because here
(18:41):
in Ukraine we can understand Russians much better than people
and other regions.
Speaker 5 (18:47):
And I.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Just could feel and I knew that they will not stop,
they will continue, they will go further.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
And I was right.
Speaker 3 (18:59):
So I joined the army just to prepare myself. I
joined to one of the best trooply in our army
to be ready to fight with the Russian Federation invasion.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
And thank you very much for your dedication and your service,
your contribution. I appreciate that. Let me ask you about
what you know about the front right now. I have
been told that Russia is gaining ground. I think that
that's been reported in the media quite a bit. I
had a military expert on my show a week ago
who said, yes, but it's a war of inches and
(19:35):
at this rate it would take twenty to thirty years
before they would even get to Kiev. Tell me what
your sense, based on both people you talk to and
your knowledge of other people and what's been reported in Ukraine,
what's your sense of what the frontline is like today.
Speaker 5 (19:55):
Answering your question, I will tell you a short story
if you don't mind. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
I got back from the captivity on fourteenth, fourteenth September
the year twenty twenty four, So basically that was one
year ago. And when I got the phone first, what
I've did, what I've did done. I called my best
friend who shared with me in marine inventory.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
And.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
When I heard his voice, he was really glad to
hear me, and I asked him, Hi, bro, what is
going on?
Speaker 5 (20:33):
Where are you? What is going on here?
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Where are we on the front on the land. And
he was in Pakrovsk at that period of time, the
thirty eighth Marine Brigade, and he was in Pakrovsk since
June twenty twenty four, and he said to me that
the things are going crazy the front line, that the
(20:56):
situation is really hard, and Pakrowski is the worst place
in the front. And he set me in case you join,
you go back to army, don't come here, go anywhere
you want, but not to across because this is really crazy.
And that was one year ago. During that time, I
heard every day that the front will collapse, that Russians
(21:20):
are coming and they are getting more and more our land.
And recently I heard that Putin said that he wants
in case to to he wants both regions Danie's Region
(21:41):
and Lugansk Region just to leave Ukrainian peace. If not,
he will take all the land, like all the Hardston regions,
Approgia region and something even more.
Speaker 5 (21:54):
But he said it. But you know what, my friend
lives in Pokrovsk. He's still there, and.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
Russians are not in the city. They are not even
in the city. So this is basically this is not
the Pacross city. This is the Pacross direction. And I,
you know, I don't really understand even me, I don't
really understand what is going on.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
So they are telling that they.
Speaker 3 (22:19):
Will occupy the half of our country, but during the
year they couldn't even occupy this little smart Pocross. So
you know, when it was the Second World War and
the Soviet Soviet soldiers were fighting with the Fascist soldiers
(22:40):
and they were getting the territory, they didn't even notice
such cities, such small cities as Pokrovsk. No one even
knows that they exist. They were coming like two hundred
kilometers during the day and that was normal, and here
we can see twenty kilometers you're in one year.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
This is not normal.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
You cannot say that you will occupy one of the
biggest European country in case you cannot cross twenty kilometers
during the year. This is ridiculous. So I don't see
I can say that the situation is really hard. A
lot of people are dying, that is true, but I
(23:25):
don't see any success Russian army in Ukraine. And I
want to remind you that this is thirty first of August.
That means the end of the summer. That means the
end of Russian's summer military campaign. And I moreover, they
(23:46):
actually they don't have like a summer military campaign. They
have a spring summer military campaign or autumn winter military campaign,
which is half a year. So during half a year,
Russians couldn't occupy even the smallest city in Ukraine. They
just got a couple of villages during half a year,
(24:07):
that's it. We got tens of thousands villages in Ukraine.
So in case Putin said that he will occupy six
regions or eight regions, I don't know. Well maybe, yeah,
maybe in thirty.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Years inspection, they are very calculations. They a were calculations
made that it will take Russia with the current base
of Russian army, it will take eighty nine years to
occupy the Akraine.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Eighty nine years. Mister tell Us Cerget Malla tell Us.
Where is petrosk am I produncing right, how big is
it in population? And is there any industry? What is
it known for? Is it agricultural or industrial?
Speaker 5 (24:53):
Okay?
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Yes, of course Across is one of one of a
number of Daniezk cities, so it's in the Danesk region.
The population was before the full scale invasion just fifty
thousand people. Fifty thousand people and some number of small
(25:16):
villages two three four thousand people in each. And to
occupy Pakrovsk, Russia gathered more than one hundred thousand soldiers
right now during this summer campaign. But I want to
mention you that the fight for this Pokrovsk direction started
(25:39):
in June twenty four, more than one year ago. And
during this year, just in Pakrovsk, Russians lost was killed
and injured and dismissed like almost the same, almost one
one hundred thousand soldiers. And this is not our numbers.
This is like numbers which we can hear in among
(26:02):
Russian propaganda channels. So and more more, they've lost more
than two thousand tanks and inventor vehicles just in across direction.
And still across the direction is not surrendered even just
is not even surrendered as it was done in Mariupol,
(26:25):
because I was fighting in Mariupol, we were completely surrendered
in circle. No, so Pacrosk is still not in circle.
They are just coming to Pocrossk. So when what they
need to do right now they need to get to
the Pacross city, then to get it into circle and
(26:45):
then to occupy it. To make this operation they need
probably all at least three four months more. And we
are speaking just about Pacross. In the Nyetsk region we
got not just the Pocross City. We got Constantinovka, Slavansk, Trauma,
Torsk and some other smaller cities. Is Uh and put
(27:09):
In says to us that we have to give it
to him without a fight. But we can see that
he cannot occupy even one across. More than a year
he spent and he can't even get the city into circle.
Speaker 5 (27:25):
So this is the reality on them.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
That the next region is right is in eastern Ukraine,
close to the Russian borders.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
That crap.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
MHM Danes region region. Yes, this is eastern part of
Ukraine and this is part of Asov Region.
Speaker 5 (27:47):
As of c H.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
I want to remind you that more than three years
ago I was fighting in Mariupol, and Mariopol he is
the city of the Nis region as well, the same
city as Pokrovsk. That was more than three years ago.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
So so so, sergeant Malak, Why you've got a country
that is ten times the size of Ukraine. You've got
what some people think is a superpower military. You've got
a military establishment that has been feared by the world
for eighty years. You've got tanks, you've got missiles, You've
(28:28):
got North Korea helping them out. You've got Iranian drones
helping them out. It's right beside Russia. How come they
haven't already got to Kiev. What's what's What's what's happening?
Speaker 5 (28:41):
I think this is Pokrovski is the answer.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Just try to study open sources to understand what is
going on, and you will see that Russia is not
so strong as you as people can think about it,
and they they can just something what you will give
to them in case you fight, they cannot take as
(29:06):
my friend the same surgeon marine surgent. He said to me,
the main thing is to fight, and no matters. So
show your character and keep fighting, keep a struggle and
they will be defeated. And we can see it in Pocrosko.
(29:27):
We can see it in Constantinovka, in vol Chansk, in Coupansk.
They are fighting in Kupansk almost two years. Coupansk is
the same city like Cross maybe thirty forty thousand people
was were there before the full scale invasion. They cannot
(29:48):
take it more than two years. This is the superpower
in case you are fighting for your land, you you
can be successful.
Speaker 5 (29:58):
Moreover we have we can see the.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
Help from our Western partners, more help. We have better
result on the front we got that is the same.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Show your character and keep fighting. Very very good words,
very upwards. Thank you, Sergeant Melica appreciate. We're gonna take
a break for some messages and come back in just
two minutes. So we're going to talk about this article
that Elena and Sergeant Melica have written about, does put
really want peace? Stay with us at one back in
Just too Much.
Speaker 1 (30:39):
Stream us Live at SAGA nine am dot C.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
A welcome back everyone to the brank from you really wore.
I've got Sergeant Black formerly of the Ukrainian arm Forces
fighting in Mariopa, Uh and UH and now UH and
(31:04):
then a prisoner of war for over two years, and
and and now working very hard to inform everyone about
what's going on in Ukraine. And Elena uh dave lik Kanova,
who is uh uh a pH d, a doctor, but
also uh a commentator, author, UH. She's on a several
different think tank organizations, and she's written a really interesting article.
(31:27):
Co authored a really interesting article about does Putin really
want peace? And I read it, Elena, and I was
very impressed with it. Tell us your argument, please, do
you think Putin really wants peace or or or does
he just want continued war?
Speaker 4 (31:42):
What in once victory and he wants it in different
ways because for example, Samita Nagaska was one step towards
russia victory because it allowed Russia to escape semi isolation,
I mean diplomatic isolation, national isolation, and get back to
the international arena. He would be happy to divide the
(32:08):
world without Europeans, without Ukraine directly having agreements with the
United States. In my understanding, Russia does see itself as
a global power, and probably it wants to sit in
at the table together with the US and China and
decide fates of too many millions of Europeans. It is
(32:31):
very fortunate that Europeans understand the threat and they are
trying to keep the United States as their direct ali
given that with the new administration, the situation is pretty
shaky and the defense authentic cooperation that used to be
value based is now more transactional and more contract based.
(32:55):
We see how many new contracts the United States has
gotten when it comes not only to international trade but
also to the purchase of weapons, not only for Ukraine
but also for the Europeans. So altogether we can see
that the situation for Europe in general is pretty shaky,
and it was a very big queen for Ukraine when
(33:17):
President Zvinsky, together with a very significant support from the
from very heavy lifties in European politics, came to meet
President Trump. Unfortunately, with President Trump right now, you never
know how long the agreements or his mood will last.
(33:37):
So we still hear all these different messaging. Recently he
said that the meeting between putting In the Vinsky and
him as well, it will definitely take place. The trade
lateral meeting. Ukraine shows with all its smile that it
is open for peace negotiations. No one like Ukraine once
(34:00):
but we cannot afford the piece which will lead to
our occupation within the next several years. That is why
what we are currently fighting for is understanding what are
the robust security guarantees, not another Buddha Pesta morandum that
will ensure that Ukraine will not be attacked and will
(34:20):
not be occupied by twenty thirty. As we see now,
the offers on the table are very shaky because, for example,
the European troops on the Ukrainian ground, whether this is
five thousand or thirty thousand, they will not actually protect
Ukraine if the guarantees do not for see engagement of
(34:45):
the governments into the war, if Russia attacks Ukraine again,
so there may a presence will not guarantee Ukraine anything,
just like the presence of the Chinese troops, which is
another option on the table. Uh So, Ukraine is pushing
for robot guarantees like for example, Safe Sky is initiative
(35:06):
where European allies will in any case protect Ukrainian skies
because Ukraine is suffering mostly from the drones and the missiles.
These combined attacks are becoming more and more devastating because
our air defense gets tired from this number of air targets.
(35:27):
So altogether we can see that Russia doesn't really want peace,
it doesn't really want even seas fire. Russia will stop
where it will be stopped. And currently we believe that
this should be the economic sanctions that have European Union
(35:48):
has prepared another new sanctioning package. So in my personal opinion,
this is where it's gonna go at the end of
the day, because Russia wants these sanctions to be lifted.
And let's be honest, if especially oil and gas sanctions
are lifted, and there is a new wave of funding
(36:09):
coming to the Russian budget, which is already very severely
focused on the military investments. If I'm not mistaken, they
are now planning six percent of the GDP to be
invested in the military industrial context. So what will it
end up with. It will end up with a war,
(36:31):
even bigger war in Europe by twenty thirty two, by
twenty thirty as European intelligence services are warning, and this
will be a problem of not only Ukraine but the
whole European continent.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
You really think that Russia might attack the Baltic states
or countries other than just Ukraine, You really honestly believe that.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
This option is very possible. I do not see why not.
I mean, if the United States will show or will
signal that whatever it will provide within the Article five
of NATA will be just intelligent sharing and I don't know,
(37:14):
some advice, maybe weapons that will be sold or even
given to Europeans, and that's all, then you know why not?
Speaker 2 (37:25):
So you don't believe that the United States will honor
the Article five parts of the NATO treaty that say
that if a NATO country is attacked, it would be
deemed to be similar to, if not the same, of
being attacked yourself, and therefore actual armed forces from the
United States would be obliged to be involved. You don't
(37:45):
think that the United States would actually send troops to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Germany, France, etc.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
I truly hope that the United States will honor this agreement,
because if it doesn't, then Europe will repeat the history
of the first half of the twentieth century and it
will be very, very unfortunate. It's at the moment currently
the United States is probably not ready to act like that,
(38:17):
but with the current trend that we are observing, we
do not know what's going to happen in a couple
of years.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
Tell me what you think of of Vladimir Putin and
if he really wants peace. Some people have suggested that
that if he is defeated, it's the end of Putin,
that his hold on power is completely dependent on the
continuation of a war and and or victory taking over,
(38:46):
if not all of Ukraine, a lot of Ukraine, and
to for him personally to admit defeat and return the
Russian economy back to a peacetime economy without all of
the extra deficit spending on military that the economy would
grind to a halt time. Tell me what the political
ramifications of peace for binary.
Speaker 4 (39:07):
Prison are as I said, I believe that Putting needs
to sell victory, Russian victory, and it can be framed
in so many different ways. It doesn't even have to
be the occupation of Kiev or complete defeat of Ukraine.
That is why these Ayaska agreements that we don't really
know much about, but that I guess. Pisco mentioned that
(39:29):
Europeans are now ruining the agreements that we are reached
in Ayaska between the US and Russia. So if for example,
Russia manages to achieve certain very very good contracts with
the United States regarding energy, maybe joint projects in the Arctics,
maybe some other cooperation for example, for example, in the
(39:57):
coordination of efforts or the militarization of the nuclearization whatsoever.
So for Putting to show that Russia is now respected
by the biggest players on the planet, by China and
by the United States, that they are a new profitable
economic projects. While Ukraine has lost like twenty percent of
(40:18):
its territory, not fully defeated, not fully occupied. But let's
remember that Putting never proclaimed officially what are the end
goals of this special military operation. So basically these goals
they have been changing depending on the developments on the frontline.
And honestly speaking, if Ukraine will face a lot of
(40:42):
post war economic struggles, social struggles for Russia, this would
be also a certain type of victory. That is why
we need more prompt European integration. Otherwise Ukraine will face
every country that experience such a devastating war, we will
(41:03):
face a lot of other issues. So overall, if Putting
will be able to achieve anything that will look like victory,
that can be sold like victory, he will be okay
with that, mister Melick.
Speaker 2 (41:23):
Some people think that Ukraine will have to give up
some territory, will have to see some territory, And we
have talked already about potentially twenty percent of Ukraine being
occupied already by Russia. Do you think that Ukraine and
the Ukrainian people will agree to see some territory in
(41:43):
order to get peace.
Speaker 5 (41:46):
I don't see that, but I don't want to respond
for all people.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
I just know that.
Speaker 5 (41:57):
Someone who has army can decide well. In Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (42:02):
Zelensky has army put in his army. I don't see
any players for the army in Ukraine, So.
Speaker 4 (42:10):
I think.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
Right now, I don't see any reasons why Ukrainian army
should leave some land. I don't see a Russian army
cannot obviously cannot make Ukraine in a military way to
leave some lands.
Speaker 5 (42:31):
That's it, Elena.
Speaker 2 (42:33):
If Ukraine is required to cede some territory to Russia,
do you think that will happen?
Speaker 4 (42:40):
First of all, it is impossible due to legal, moral,
and also strategic obstacles. Well as for legal constraints, there
is a very clear terms in our constitutions that says
that whatever issues are connected with the Ukraine and sovereignty
(43:02):
or administrative division. This can only be resolved we referendum.
We cannot have any referendum on the martial law. And
I believe that that Ukrainian people will never vote for
giving up the territory that is not occupied. When it
comes to moral arguments, it is not about territory as such,
(43:26):
because I mean, Russia has a lot of territory, but
we always forget about the people who live there. How
do you see this whole picture? President of Ukraine will
tell residents of the government controlled territories, you have a
month to grab your stuff and just leave, and then
we will help you find your new place elsewhere. Who's
(43:50):
going to found it this? We are talking about millions
and millions of Europe to help these people move out
and find new property and so on. So force. And
also let's be honest what putting is in because now
they used to claim the rights for six or blessed,
then for four or ob blessed. Now they are only
(44:10):
insistent to occupy Venetze region. Why Denze region also is
a gaining We have an article explaining why putting is
so much focused on this particular piece of lend because
this is the belt of fortresses. Since twenty fourteen, Russia
is unable to occupy this particular piece of land because
(44:34):
it is so heavily fortified that if we give these
lands to Russia, then afterwards, in maybe half a year
a year, they will be able to freely attack me
pro hartif and then maybe even occupy the cold left
Bank of Ukraine. So that is why his demands are
(44:57):
mostly trajectored by the military and strategic calculations. So whatever
he cannot occupy, he wants to just get in order
to strength strengthen his position for another wave of war
in a couple of years.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
We're going to take a break, final break. Can come
back with some concluding comments with our two guests stuff
from Ukraine in just two minutes. Statement us everyone back into.
Speaker 1 (45:28):
Stream US live at SAGA nine six am dot.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
Can't come back Everyone to the Brian Croby Radio or
I've been having a really interesting conversation with mister Malik
Starge at block. I'm not going to pronounce his first
name because I'm going to get it wrong again. I apologize, sir.
(45:54):
And Elena Davis li Kanova, who is a PhD doctor, writer, author,
opinion writer for several Thing Tanks, and and I really
appreciate the two of you joining Sergia Malik as a
veteran of Mariopa the fight in Mariopa and then served
(46:14):
over two years as a prisoner of war of Russia
and UH and did return to Ukraine about a year ago.
You know, you've talked about the front lines. You've talked
about the lack of Russian advances or the minimal advances
that they've been able to achieve. You've talked about how
challenging it is for Putin politically to UH to agree
(46:36):
to peace. You've talked about the challenges of Ukraine seeding
any territory. You've talked about the UH the Budapest Memorandum,
which was an empty agreement that didn't appear to have
actually been successful. And so therefore I completely understand if
if Ukraine was worry of entering into new agreements without
very strong security guarantees. And at the same time, you're
(46:59):
not getting this security guarantees that I think that you
that you require and that you desire. So I've got
to ask you, is there any chance for peace? Do
you think peace can be achieved?
Speaker 5 (47:12):
Not the sier.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
So you think it could, but just not now.
Speaker 3 (47:16):
I don't see any possibilities right now. As I said,
Russians are taking what they can, take what you can
what you will give to them. They really believe that
they can get something more till the moment they will
(47:37):
be run of money, run off ammunition, run off people,
something one of three of these.
Speaker 5 (47:47):
Means.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
Till that moment they will side to fight and to
involve more. So, right now I don't see any reasons
why they should stop in terms of their motivation and mentality.
Speaker 5 (48:05):
But I can see that soon, pretty soon we'll see.
Speaker 3 (48:10):
Some global problems with the Russian Federation inside, which will
change everything. Maybe not everything, but a lot of things
on the land. So we have to continue to do.
What are we doing right now?
Speaker 2 (48:28):
Elena, what do you think is there any chance of peace?
Speaker 4 (48:34):
There might be a chance for ceasefire maybe next year,
but when it comes to sustainable piece, probably not. As
long as Russia exists as a totalitarian state, which is
imperial in charactery that wants Ukraine to stop existing as
an independent state, because this is what the biggest dream
(48:57):
of Russia was since nineteen nineties, will see no sustainable piece.
We will UH, we will be expecting and training for
another even bigger one.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
Elena and UH and Sergeant Malick, thank you so much
for Johnny and I really appreciate it. This has been
a fascinating conversation. I think that from Canadian standpoint, we
have to be cognizant of this situation and our obligations,
whether they be NATO obligations or human moral obligations to
support Ukraine. I think that Elena and Sergeant Malik are
(49:34):
are right. The chance for peace is very low. I
don't believe Putin really wants peace UH. And I worry
that Trump wants peace just to say that he cheat
piece and isn't really worried about what what he has
to give up to to gain peace. I'm worried about
the historical connectivit connectivity to our similarities to the Budapest Memorandum,
(49:56):
where there were security guarantees provided that we're all and
people didn't honor them, and that includes Western countries as
well as Russia. I'm worried that one of the lessons
of the Budapest Memorandum to countries is that you don't
give up nuclear weapons if you've got them, and I
(50:18):
think that one of the history lessons is going to
be that Ukraine made a mistake and giving up those
nuclear weapons, because if it had nuclear weapons, it wouldn't
have been invaded, and I think that's a bad lesson,
and I think that's bad for the world in the future.
I think that there's similarities to whether it be Yalta
where you had two superpowers carving up the world and
spheres of influence, and I think that's wrong, or whether
(50:39):
it's similarities to Munich and Chamberlain coming and appeasing Hitler
and giving him territory that he thought the Western world
at the time thought might be enough, and it was
never enough, and so therefore Alena would be right that
potentially it would lead to continue to attack to Ukraine
in the future, and or perhaps even to the Baltics
(51:01):
in Poland. I think that tyrants need to be stopped,
and I think that the lesson of the last eighty
years has been that, hopefully successfully, countries have abided by
the belief that taking over territory by force is wrong
and against international law, and people would be disciplined for it.
And regrettably, President Putin never heard that story, never heard
(51:25):
that message never lived it. So I think that, particularly
as the United States potentially diminishes that commitments to Ukraine
and to international laws and respective borders, Canada needs to
stand with Ukraine and support Ukraine. And I think our
(51:46):
Prime Minister visit a Kiev recently and dedicated a significant
military expenditure, and I think that's the right thing to do. Anyway, Elena,
Sergeant Malick, really appreciate your joining us tonight. Thanks, that's
our show for tonight and people, please stay safe. I'm
so glad that you've connected up with me again.
Speaker 1 (52:05):
Good head, everybody, no radio, no problem. Stream is live
on SAGA nine sixty am dot c a
The views expressed in the following program are those of
the participants and do not necessarily reflect the views of
Saga nine sixty am or its management.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Believe you and everyone to welcome to the Brian Crombie
Radio Hour. I've got Elena Davlakanova and you're Nick. Oh
my god, this was wrong again. I apologize, mister Malak,
who served in the Ukrainian Forces. I can't pronounce your
first name. I apologize, and maybe you could tell us
all your first name, sir.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
That's okay, don't worry about it. My name is you
have guinea, Ye have guinea Mark.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Yes, remind us of the position you had in the
armed forces.
Speaker 4 (00:50):
Please.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
I'm the veteran of thirty sixth Marine Brigade of Marine
Corporate Ukraine. I was a squad leader sergeant and i'm
letteran of mariol Battle.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
And you spent some time as a pow zachrach.
Speaker 5 (01:11):
Yes, that is two and a half years.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Two and a half years. Unbelievable. Well, thank you very
much for joining us. And Elena, tell us a little
bit about you. I read your article recently that was
talking about this putting really one piece. Tell us a
little bit about your background.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
Please, yes, thank you. We wrote this article in cooperation
with your guinea. My name is Lena Wicanava. I am
a senior fellow with the Center Paypean Policy Analysis. It's
a think tank in Washington, d C. And I'm also
a senior fellow with Sagay Dutchines Security Center. It's a
Ukrainian think tank that works on the ter of Ukraine.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
So thank you both for joining me again, I really
appreciate it. We're going to give everyone an update on
what's going on in Ukraine, what's going on in peace
conversations if any, or happening between Ukraine and Russia, what's
happening at the front, and what's happening in regards to bombing. Alena,
I understand that there's been quite a lot of bombing
this past weekend in Kiev and even in some western
(02:14):
Ukraine cities. You know, it appears to be in retaliation
for some Ukrainian bombings of Russian oil refineries. Tell me
what's what's going on and what's the what's the damage been,
and what's the loss of life? Ben if you could,
first of all.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
I wouldn't call this a retaliation, because this is what
Russia has been doing for three years. Uh. The strategy
of bombing civilians was adopted by Kremlin since the very start,
and the strategy aims breaking Ukrainian spirit and making Ukrainians
press the government to progress with negotiations and capitulation. Fortunately
(02:56):
this doesn't work, but unfortunately a lot of people are
dying all over the Ukraine. The last shooting was very big.
It was the second biggest attack on Ukrainian civilians, almost
seven hundred drones and missiles. Unfortunately, twenty three people were killed,
four of them were children.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Seven hundred drones and missiles in Kiya.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
I'm telling you about the people who only died in Kia,
and it is very unfortunate that still the whole coalition
and the United States cannot press Putting to stop terrorizing
civilian Ukrainian civilians.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Now, Ukraine has been firing at Russia, but it's been
primarily oil infrastructure and military establishments. Is that correct?
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Yes, absolutely, Ukraine is trying to aim strictly military targets,
for example, plants that produced drones and also oil refiner
is because unfortunately Russia continues to get enough funding for
the war by the selling oil and gas and energy
(04:11):
as well.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Now you know this may be an obvious question, but
let me ask you. If Russia is attacking Ukrainian civilians
and cities, why doesn't Ukraine attack Russian civilians and cities.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
Because, unlike Russians, Ukrainians are civilized. We are a civilized nations,
European nation. We do not kill children, women, elderly people
and men as well just because we can.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Yes, so I would like as the military I would
like to explain, there are probably two options to act
on your enemy. First way the terror attack, which main
aim is to threat people, civilian people so they will
(05:09):
influence the government. That is the way like some kind
of terroristic organizations act for example al Qaeda or Islamic States,
or we see the same action from the Russian.
Speaker 5 (05:27):
Federation, that is the way to act.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Basically, anyone, any kind of organization or government can do this,
but the normal European government. The difference between the European
government and the such dictators is that civilized countries do
not act like this, They do not act like a terrorists.
(05:53):
And there isn't another way to influence your enemy in
a military way, to make a special force operation, to
make deep strikes, against the infrastructure, infrastructure, against the weapon
such as operations spider web we did when we destroyed
(06:16):
Russian's nuclear strategy air jets. So this is the difference
between like normal government and the terroristic government. Russia made
the easiest way. They tried to thread the people, the civilians,
and Ukraine tries to act against the infrastructure. So this
(06:42):
is just the difference of mentality.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
I understand that you're can I call you? Are?
Speaker 4 (06:49):
Is that okay?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
You can call Jena?
Speaker 5 (06:56):
Yes, that's Jena.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
I understand that recently Ukraine has disabled, if not destroyed,
a railway link that was built through southern Ukraine to
connect Russia to Crimea. How would you describe that?
Speaker 5 (07:14):
That action?
Speaker 3 (07:17):
That is the common military operation against the infrastructure of
your enemy. You can find such you know, each country
got a military book where it's sat like the way
(07:37):
of act to your enemy against in case of war,
and this is one of way to act against infrastructure.
Everything what can be used to supply enemies army with dimminition,
with the patrol, with the food. Everything has to be destroyed.
So any kind of roads, planes, airports, aiway, seaports, everything
(08:06):
has to be destroyed. This is something what Russians tried
to do in Ukraine also, and this is something what
Ukraine tries to do in Russian territory as well. That
is something what we've seen in Middle East when United
States or other countries used to have war with each other.
Speaker 5 (08:28):
So this is the part of war.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
We've seen recently social media reports of long lineups for
gas in Russia. Do you see that as well? And
I presume that is because of attacks against oil refineries
and gas refineries and things like that. What do you
think of that? Is that a good strategy? And also
I understand drones sent to airports to disturb airflight travel,
(08:58):
so that Russians going on vacation have had two miss
flights and things like that. What do you think of
those two strategies disturbing the gas supply and disturbing the
travel opportunities.
Speaker 5 (09:10):
Yes, thank you for the question. This is a really
good question.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
And I'm glad that you know in Canada, in the
United States you can see this efforts, because this is
really interesting that this is really good strategy. First of all,
Ukraine army disturbs airports, Russian airports, but they do not
bomb them, They just threat and in that case Russia
(09:37):
used this plan as they call it cavor, when they
just destroy everything what is in the air, so they
do not let their planes to go to the sky.
This is so great thing because Moscow is a main
(09:58):
hub of airports directions. In case you want to go
from one part of Russia to another, you go through Moscow.
So in case you threat this Moscow region, basically you
just break all the air connections or all the air
directions of Russian Federation and they cannot use these civil
(10:21):
airports because they don't know how to use it without
a Moscow, you know. So this is the first thing
and we make we just break economy of Russian Federation
with the help of such actions without any victims. This
is first of all. And the second thing is to
(10:44):
break all these ale oil factories. We made it for
a long time period. That was a strategic operation, long
term operation. So for the beginning, no one see the threat,
no one see any kind of problem. But now we
can see the result. This is long term result, and
(11:07):
the result is that nowadays the eastern part of Russia
is without the patrol already, and people don't understand the majority.
What is the result, what is the great result because
eastern part of Russian federation that is something like European
territory or whole United States territory. Can you imagine that
(11:29):
we are living on the planet and we have such
a territory as the United States which is without the
patrol right now, like North Korea, and that was made
in by Ukrainian forces without any victims, and that is
the great result, and the economy influence is really great.
So in case we try to learn the way we
(11:53):
influence each other. Russians are bombing citizens our capital, ye
are killing our people, but it doesn't break our wheel.
It just makes us stronger and more aggressive to the
Russian government. And in Naura action, well you know, in
(12:15):
case Russia oil superpower will be without a patrol, Well
that can I think that can break the will of
civilian people who really don't care about this war and
they don't want to be in it. They just want
to live. And for living, you need a petrol and
(12:36):
they don't have it. And petrol is not just to
use your car. It's all about the economy. So in
case you need your farmers to work, you need a petrol.
In case you need any kind of logistic to work.
You need a petrol. So the petrol is a blood
(12:57):
of economy as we know, and that can works.
Speaker 5 (13:00):
I believe in it.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
We're going to take a break for some messages and
come back in just two minutes with these two individuals
from Kiva from Ukraine talking about both the status of
the war. I want to ask our military expert a
little bit about what's happening on the front lines. We've
just chatted about some issues in regards to how Ukraine
is taking the war to Russia. Finally, and then I
(13:25):
want to understand the front line and what's happening there.
And then Elena who authored co authored a really interesting
article on does Putin really want peace? We're going to
come back with these two individuals in just two minutes.
Stay with us, everyone back into.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Stream US live at SAGA nine am.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Welcome back everyone to the Brian Crowney Radio. I've got
the real pleasure. I've been interviewing again Elena Davinkole, Dave
lik Kanova, davel Kanova and Sergeant Malik. I'm not going
to pronounce his first name because I've done a terrible
job doing so so far. I apologize, sir. Both of
you are very motivated to uh, to tell the world
(14:19):
what's going on in Ukraine.
Speaker 4 (14:22):
Why because our lives depends on that, the date of
our country depends on understanding of our allies what is
going on in Ukraine. Unfortunately, Russia has been doing a
very good job spreading mist information, dis information, influencing minds
of our Western the clips, in academia, in decision making
(14:46):
some and so course, and even after three years of
very intense advocacy work, which not only we are doing,
but there is a very big, very respected community of
Ukrainians for trying to advocate for Ukraine all over the globe,
we still see that there are so many issues that
(15:06):
remain unresolved, and we see that our allies still that
boldness in decision making. And this is why we still
do not have any robust security guarantees. Uh, this is
why we still here from the White House, especially talks
like oh, if these two sides do not show flexibility,
(15:26):
then the United States will let these two smaller children
fight on the playground, which is a very bad comparison
and very cruel comparison. So you know, all in all,
I believe that by trying to preserve Alec country, our homes,
our families, people you know, fellow Ukrainians who lose their
(15:50):
lives every day, not only on the front lines, but
also sleeping, accounting in the events and not waking up. Unfortunately,
we are trying to stop this war and by stopping
and talking about a very robust piece deal that will
guarantee that Ukraine exists on the political lab that it
(16:11):
remains a democratic state, and that we will be able
to continue living here happily.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Ever often, Eleanda, you're a fascinating individual. You've got a degree,
a bachelor's degree in teachers College, then you've got a
master's in English Language and literature. Then you've got a
master's degree in management. Then you've got a PhD from
Sumi State University, and now you're working for this think
(16:40):
tank out of Washington, d C. A senior fellow with
a security center, and then also a visiting scholar at
John Hopkins University. What would you be doing if there
wasn't a war? Would you be teaching English?
Speaker 4 (16:56):
Well, I stopped teaching English a long time ago, fifteen years.
I've been working for international institutions, National Democratic Institute and
then pretty Herbrid's Foundation. So I actually devoted my life
to building Ukraine as a democratic European state. I invested
a lot in helping Ukraine to progress its euro integration path.
(17:19):
So I think that without the world would be probably
much closer to European integration, at least I hope.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
So what was your PhD in? It was on.
Speaker 4 (17:32):
Management, economy and management, but the topic was also connected
to education. It was one of the also European integration
projects on education reform, and it was massive, really adapted
German dual education to Ukrainian realities, and that was something
that I actually devoted ten years of my life to.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
You know, it's fascinating how war can change people's lives, obviously,
I guess, but it's interesting, you know, meeting you and
understanding your incredible academic background and practical background, and now
that you're dedicating your life to informing us all. Mister Malik,
Sergeant Malik, what were you doing before joining your forces?
(18:16):
Before joining the Marine.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
Started working. I was a civilian in person. But since
the very beginning of this story, since the year twenty fourteen,
when Russia occupied it cramea and started this war in
then Bass region, I could see that they because here
(18:41):
in Ukraine we can understand Russians much better than people
and other regions.
Speaker 5 (18:47):
And I.
Speaker 3 (18:50):
Just could feel and I knew that they will not stop,
they will continue, they will go further.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
And I was right.
Speaker 3 (18:59):
So I joined the army just to prepare myself. I
joined to one of the best trooply in our army
to be ready to fight with the Russian Federation invasion.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
And thank you very much for your dedication and your service,
your contribution. I appreciate that. Let me ask you about
what you know about the front right now. I have
been told that Russia is gaining ground. I think that
that's been reported in the media quite a bit. I
had a military expert on my show a week ago
who said, yes, but it's a war of inches and
(19:35):
at this rate it would take twenty to thirty years
before they would even get to Kiev. Tell me what
your sense, based on both people you talk to and
your knowledge of other people and what's been reported in Ukraine,
what's your sense of what the frontline is like today.
Speaker 5 (19:55):
Answering your question, I will tell you a short story
if you don't mind. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
I got back from the captivity on fourteenth, fourteenth September
the year twenty twenty four, So basically that was one
year ago. And when I got the phone first, what
I've did, what I've did done. I called my best
friend who shared with me in marine inventory.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
And.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
When I heard his voice, he was really glad to
hear me, and I asked him, Hi, bro, what is
going on?
Speaker 5 (20:33):
Where are you? What is going on here?
Speaker 3 (20:35):
Where are we on the front on the land. And
he was in Pakrovsk at that period of time, the
thirty eighth Marine Brigade, and he was in Pakrovsk since
June twenty twenty four, and he said to me that
the things are going crazy the front line, that the
(20:56):
situation is really hard, and Pakrowski is the worst place
in the front. And he set me in case you join,
you go back to army, don't come here, go anywhere
you want, but not to across because this is really crazy.
And that was one year ago. During that time, I
heard every day that the front will collapse, that Russians
(21:20):
are coming and they are getting more and more our land.
And recently I heard that Putin said that he wants
in case to to he wants both regions Danie's Region
(21:41):
and Lugansk Region just to leave Ukrainian peace. If not,
he will take all the land, like all the Hardston regions,
Approgia region and something even more.
Speaker 5 (21:54):
But he said it. But you know what, my friend
lives in Pokrovsk. He's still there, and.
Speaker 3 (22:02):
Russians are not in the city. They are not even
in the city. So this is basically this is not
the Pacross city. This is the Pacross direction. And I,
you know, I don't really understand even me, I don't
really understand what is going on.
Speaker 5 (22:17):
So they are telling that they.
Speaker 3 (22:19):
Will occupy the half of our country, but during the
year they couldn't even occupy this little smart Pocross. So
you know, when it was the Second World War and
the Soviet Soviet soldiers were fighting with the Fascist soldiers
(22:40):
and they were getting the territory, they didn't even notice
such cities, such small cities as Pokrovsk. No one even
knows that they exist. They were coming like two hundred
kilometers during the day and that was normal, and here
we can see twenty kilometers you're in one year.
Speaker 5 (23:01):
This is not normal.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
You cannot say that you will occupy one of the
biggest European country in case you cannot cross twenty kilometers
during the year. This is ridiculous. So I don't see
I can say that the situation is really hard. A
lot of people are dying, that is true, but I
(23:25):
don't see any success Russian army in Ukraine. And I
want to remind you that this is thirty first of August.
That means the end of the summer. That means the
end of Russian's summer military campaign. And I moreover, they
(23:46):
actually they don't have like a summer military campaign. They
have a spring summer military campaign or autumn winter military campaign,
which is half a year. So during half a year,
Russians couldn't occupy even the smallest city in Ukraine. They
just got a couple of villages during half a year,
(24:07):
that's it. We got tens of thousands villages in Ukraine.
So in case Putin said that he will occupy six
regions or eight regions, I don't know. Well maybe, yeah,
maybe in thirty.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Years inspection, they are very calculations. They a were calculations
made that it will take Russia with the current base
of Russian army, it will take eighty nine years to
occupy the Akraine.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Eighty nine years. Mister tell Us Cerget Malla tell Us.
Where is petrosk am I produncing right, how big is
it in population? And is there any industry? What is
it known for? Is it agricultural or industrial?
Speaker 5 (24:53):
Okay?
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Yes, of course Across is one of one of a
number of Daniezk cities, so it's in the Danesk region.
The population was before the full scale invasion just fifty
thousand people. Fifty thousand people and some number of small
(25:16):
villages two three four thousand people in each. And to
occupy Pakrovsk, Russia gathered more than one hundred thousand soldiers
right now during this summer campaign. But I want to
mention you that the fight for this Pokrovsk direction started
(25:39):
in June twenty four, more than one year ago. And
during this year, just in Pakrovsk, Russians lost was killed
and injured and dismissed like almost the same, almost one
one hundred thousand soldiers. And this is not our numbers.
This is like numbers which we can hear in among
(26:02):
Russian propaganda channels. So and more more, they've lost more
than two thousand tanks and inventor vehicles just in across direction.
And still across the direction is not surrendered even just
is not even surrendered as it was done in Mariupol,
(26:25):
because I was fighting in Mariupol, we were completely surrendered
in circle. No, so Pacrosk is still not in circle.
They are just coming to Pocrossk. So when what they
need to do right now they need to get to
the Pacross city, then to get it into circle and
(26:45):
then to occupy it. To make this operation they need
probably all at least three four months more. And we
are speaking just about Pacross. In the Nyetsk region we
got not just the Pocross City. We got Constantinovka, Slavansk, Trauma,
Torsk and some other smaller cities. Is Uh and put
(27:09):
In says to us that we have to give it
to him without a fight. But we can see that
he cannot occupy even one across. More than a year
he spent and he can't even get the city into circle.
Speaker 5 (27:25):
So this is the reality on them.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
That the next region is right is in eastern Ukraine,
close to the Russian borders.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
That crap.
Speaker 3 (27:38):
MHM Danes region region. Yes, this is eastern part of
Ukraine and this is part of Asov Region.
Speaker 5 (27:47):
As of c H.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
I want to remind you that more than three years
ago I was fighting in Mariupol, and Mariopol he is
the city of the Nis region as well, the same
city as Pokrovsk. That was more than three years ago.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
So so so, sergeant Malak, Why you've got a country
that is ten times the size of Ukraine. You've got
what some people think is a superpower military. You've got
a military establishment that has been feared by the world
for eighty years. You've got tanks, you've got missiles, You've
(28:28):
got North Korea helping them out. You've got Iranian drones
helping them out. It's right beside Russia. How come they
haven't already got to Kiev. What's what's What's what's happening?
Speaker 5 (28:41):
I think this is Pokrovski is the answer.
Speaker 3 (28:44):
Just try to study open sources to understand what is
going on, and you will see that Russia is not
so strong as you as people can think about it,
and they they can just something what you will give
to them in case you fight, they cannot take as
(29:06):
my friend the same surgeon marine surgent. He said to me,
the main thing is to fight, and no matters. So
show your character and keep fighting, keep a struggle and
they will be defeated. And we can see it in Pocrosko.
(29:27):
We can see it in Constantinovka, in vol Chansk, in Coupansk.
They are fighting in Kupansk almost two years. Coupansk is
the same city like Cross maybe thirty forty thousand people
was were there before the full scale invasion. They cannot
(29:48):
take it more than two years. This is the superpower
in case you are fighting for your land, you you
can be successful.
Speaker 5 (29:58):
Moreover we have we can see the.
Speaker 3 (30:04):
Help from our Western partners, more help. We have better
result on the front we got that is the same.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Show your character and keep fighting. Very very good words,
very upwards. Thank you, Sergeant Melica appreciate. We're gonna take
a break for some messages and come back in just
two minutes. So we're going to talk about this article
that Elena and Sergeant Melica have written about, does put
really want peace? Stay with us at one back in
Just too Much.
Speaker 1 (30:39):
Stream us Live at SAGA nine am dot C.
Speaker 2 (30:42):
A welcome back everyone to the brank from you really wore.
I've got Sergeant Black formerly of the Ukrainian arm Forces
fighting in Mariopa, Uh and UH and now UH and
(31:04):
then a prisoner of war for over two years, and
and and now working very hard to inform everyone about
what's going on in Ukraine. And Elena uh dave lik Kanova,
who is uh uh a pH d, a doctor, but
also uh a commentator, author, UH. She's on a several
different think tank organizations, and she's written a really interesting article.
(31:27):
Co authored a really interesting article about does Putin really
want peace? And I read it, Elena, and I was
very impressed with it. Tell us your argument, please, do
you think Putin really wants peace or or or does
he just want continued war?
Speaker 4 (31:42):
What in once victory and he wants it in different
ways because for example, Samita Nagaska was one step towards
russia victory because it allowed Russia to escape semi isolation,
I mean diplomatic isolation, national isolation, and get back to
the international arena. He would be happy to divide the
(32:08):
world without Europeans, without Ukraine directly having agreements with the
United States. In my understanding, Russia does see itself as
a global power, and probably it wants to sit in
at the table together with the US and China and
decide fates of too many millions of Europeans. It is
(32:31):
very fortunate that Europeans understand the threat and they are
trying to keep the United States as their direct ali
given that with the new administration, the situation is pretty
shaky and the defense authentic cooperation that used to be
value based is now more transactional and more contract based.
(32:55):
We see how many new contracts the United States has
gotten when it comes not only to international trade but
also to the purchase of weapons, not only for Ukraine
but also for the Europeans. So altogether we can see
that the situation for Europe in general is pretty shaky,
and it was a very big queen for Ukraine when
(33:17):
President Zvinsky, together with a very significant support from the
from very heavy lifties in European politics, came to meet
President Trump. Unfortunately, with President Trump right now, you never
know how long the agreements or his mood will last.
(33:37):
So we still hear all these different messaging. Recently he
said that the meeting between putting In the Vinsky and
him as well, it will definitely take place. The trade
lateral meeting. Ukraine shows with all its smile that it
is open for peace negotiations. No one like Ukraine once
(34:00):
but we cannot afford the piece which will lead to
our occupation within the next several years. That is why
what we are currently fighting for is understanding what are
the robust security guarantees, not another Buddha Pesta morandum that
will ensure that Ukraine will not be attacked and will
(34:20):
not be occupied by twenty thirty. As we see now,
the offers on the table are very shaky because, for example,
the European troops on the Ukrainian ground, whether this is
five thousand or thirty thousand, they will not actually protect
Ukraine if the guarantees do not for see engagement of
(34:45):
the governments into the war, if Russia attacks Ukraine again,
so there may a presence will not guarantee Ukraine anything,
just like the presence of the Chinese troops, which is
another option on the table. Uh So, Ukraine is pushing
for robot guarantees like for example, Safe Sky is initiative
(35:06):
where European allies will in any case protect Ukrainian skies
because Ukraine is suffering mostly from the drones and the missiles.
These combined attacks are becoming more and more devastating because
our air defense gets tired from this number of air targets.
(35:27):
So altogether we can see that Russia doesn't really want peace,
it doesn't really want even seas fire. Russia will stop
where it will be stopped. And currently we believe that
this should be the economic sanctions that have European Union
(35:48):
has prepared another new sanctioning package. So in my personal opinion,
this is where it's gonna go at the end of
the day, because Russia wants these sanctions to be lifted.
And let's be honest, if especially oil and gas sanctions
are lifted, and there is a new wave of funding
(36:09):
coming to the Russian budget, which is already very severely
focused on the military investments. If I'm not mistaken, they
are now planning six percent of the GDP to be
invested in the military industrial context. So what will it
end up with. It will end up with a war,
(36:31):
even bigger war in Europe by twenty thirty two, by
twenty thirty as European intelligence services are warning, and this
will be a problem of not only Ukraine but the
whole European continent.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
You really think that Russia might attack the Baltic states
or countries other than just Ukraine, You really honestly believe that.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
This option is very possible. I do not see why not.
I mean, if the United States will show or will
signal that whatever it will provide within the Article five
of NATA will be just intelligent sharing and I don't know,
(37:14):
some advice, maybe weapons that will be sold or even
given to Europeans, and that's all, then you know why not?
Speaker 2 (37:25):
So you don't believe that the United States will honor
the Article five parts of the NATO treaty that say
that if a NATO country is attacked, it would be
deemed to be similar to, if not the same, of
being attacked yourself, and therefore actual armed forces from the
United States would be obliged to be involved. You don't
(37:45):
think that the United States would actually send troops to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Germany, France, etc.
Speaker 4 (37:54):
I truly hope that the United States will honor this agreement,
because if it doesn't, then Europe will repeat the history
of the first half of the twentieth century and it
will be very, very unfortunate. It's at the moment currently
the United States is probably not ready to act like that,
(38:17):
but with the current trend that we are observing, we
do not know what's going to happen in a couple
of years.
Speaker 2 (38:25):
Tell me what you think of of Vladimir Putin and
if he really wants peace. Some people have suggested that
that if he is defeated, it's the end of Putin,
that his hold on power is completely dependent on the
continuation of a war and and or victory taking over,
(38:46):
if not all of Ukraine, a lot of Ukraine, and
to for him personally to admit defeat and return the
Russian economy back to a peacetime economy without all of
the extra deficit spending on military that the economy would
grind to a halt time. Tell me what the political
ramifications of peace for binary.
Speaker 4 (39:07):
Prison are as I said, I believe that Putting needs
to sell victory, Russian victory, and it can be framed
in so many different ways. It doesn't even have to
be the occupation of Kiev or complete defeat of Ukraine.
That is why these Ayaska agreements that we don't really
know much about, but that I guess. Pisco mentioned that
(39:29):
Europeans are now ruining the agreements that we are reached
in Ayaska between the US and Russia. So if for example,
Russia manages to achieve certain very very good contracts with
the United States regarding energy, maybe joint projects in the Arctics,
maybe some other cooperation for example, for example, in the
(39:57):
coordination of efforts or the militarization of the nuclearization whatsoever.
So for Putting to show that Russia is now respected
by the biggest players on the planet, by China and
by the United States, that they are a new profitable
economic projects. While Ukraine has lost like twenty percent of
(40:18):
its territory, not fully defeated, not fully occupied. But let's
remember that Putting never proclaimed officially what are the end
goals of this special military operation. So basically these goals
they have been changing depending on the developments on the frontline.
And honestly speaking, if Ukraine will face a lot of
(40:42):
post war economic struggles, social struggles for Russia, this would
be also a certain type of victory. That is why
we need more prompt European integration. Otherwise Ukraine will face
every country that experience such a devastating war, we will
(41:03):
face a lot of other issues. So overall, if Putting
will be able to achieve anything that will look like victory,
that can be sold like victory, he will be okay
with that, mister Melick.
Speaker 2 (41:23):
Some people think that Ukraine will have to give up
some territory, will have to see some territory, And we
have talked already about potentially twenty percent of Ukraine being
occupied already by Russia. Do you think that Ukraine and
the Ukrainian people will agree to see some territory in
(41:43):
order to get peace.
Speaker 5 (41:46):
I don't see that, but I don't want to respond
for all people.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
I just know that.
Speaker 5 (41:57):
Someone who has army can decide well. In Ukraine.
Speaker 3 (42:02):
Zelensky has army put in his army. I don't see
any players for the army in Ukraine, So.
Speaker 4 (42:10):
I think.
Speaker 3 (42:12):
Right now, I don't see any reasons why Ukrainian army
should leave some land. I don't see a Russian army
cannot obviously cannot make Ukraine in a military way to
leave some lands.
Speaker 5 (42:31):
That's it, Elena.
Speaker 2 (42:33):
If Ukraine is required to cede some territory to Russia,
do you think that will happen?
Speaker 4 (42:40):
First of all, it is impossible due to legal, moral,
and also strategic obstacles. Well as for legal constraints, there
is a very clear terms in our constitutions that says
that whatever issues are connected with the Ukraine and sovereignty
(43:02):
or administrative division. This can only be resolved we referendum.
We cannot have any referendum on the martial law. And
I believe that that Ukrainian people will never vote for
giving up the territory that is not occupied. When it
comes to moral arguments, it is not about territory as such,
(43:26):
because I mean, Russia has a lot of territory, but
we always forget about the people who live there. How
do you see this whole picture? President of Ukraine will
tell residents of the government controlled territories, you have a
month to grab your stuff and just leave, and then
we will help you find your new place elsewhere. Who's
(43:50):
going to found it this? We are talking about millions
and millions of Europe to help these people move out
and find new property and so on. So force. And
also let's be honest what putting is in because now
they used to claim the rights for six or blessed,
then for four or ob blessed. Now they are only
(44:10):
insistent to occupy Venetze region. Why Denze region also is
a gaining We have an article explaining why putting is
so much focused on this particular piece of lend because
this is the belt of fortresses. Since twenty fourteen, Russia
is unable to occupy this particular piece of land because
(44:34):
it is so heavily fortified that if we give these
lands to Russia, then afterwards, in maybe half a year
a year, they will be able to freely attack me
pro hartif and then maybe even occupy the cold left
Bank of Ukraine. So that is why his demands are
(44:57):
mostly trajectored by the military and strategic calculations. So whatever
he cannot occupy, he wants to just get in order
to strength strengthen his position for another wave of war
in a couple of years.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
We're going to take a break, final break. Can come
back with some concluding comments with our two guests stuff
from Ukraine in just two minutes. Statement us everyone back into.
Speaker 1 (45:28):
Stream US live at SAGA nine six am dot.
Speaker 2 (45:31):
Can't come back Everyone to the Brian Croby Radio or
I've been having a really interesting conversation with mister Malik
Starge at block. I'm not going to pronounce his first
name because I'm going to get it wrong again. I apologize, sir.
(45:54):
And Elena Davis li Kanova, who is a PhD doctor, writer, author,
opinion writer for several Thing Tanks, and and I really
appreciate the two of you joining Sergia Malik as a
veteran of Mariopa the fight in Mariopa and then served
(46:14):
over two years as a prisoner of war of Russia
and UH and did return to Ukraine about a year ago.
You know, you've talked about the front lines. You've talked
about the lack of Russian advances or the minimal advances
that they've been able to achieve. You've talked about how
challenging it is for Putin politically to UH to agree
(46:36):
to peace. You've talked about the challenges of Ukraine seeding
any territory. You've talked about the UH the Budapest Memorandum,
which was an empty agreement that didn't appear to have
actually been successful. And so therefore I completely understand if
if Ukraine was worry of entering into new agreements without
very strong security guarantees. And at the same time, you're
(46:59):
not getting this security guarantees that I think that you
that you require and that you desire. So I've got
to ask you, is there any chance for peace? Do
you think peace can be achieved?
Speaker 5 (47:12):
Not the sier.
Speaker 2 (47:13):
So you think it could, but just not now.
Speaker 3 (47:16):
I don't see any possibilities right now. As I said,
Russians are taking what they can, take what you can
what you will give to them. They really believe that
they can get something more till the moment they will
(47:37):
be run of money, run off ammunition, run off people,
something one of three of these.
Speaker 5 (47:47):
Means.
Speaker 3 (47:48):
Till that moment they will side to fight and to
involve more. So, right now I don't see any reasons
why they should stop in terms of their motivation and mentality.
Speaker 5 (48:05):
But I can see that soon, pretty soon we'll see.
Speaker 3 (48:10):
Some global problems with the Russian Federation inside, which will
change everything. Maybe not everything, but a lot of things
on the land. So we have to continue to do.
What are we doing right now?
Speaker 2 (48:28):
Elena, what do you think is there any chance of peace?
Speaker 4 (48:34):
There might be a chance for ceasefire maybe next year,
but when it comes to sustainable piece, probably not. As
long as Russia exists as a totalitarian state, which is
imperial in charactery that wants Ukraine to stop existing as
an independent state, because this is what the biggest dream
(48:57):
of Russia was since nineteen nineties, will see no sustainable piece.
We will UH, we will be expecting and training for
another even bigger one.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
Elena and UH and Sergeant Malick, thank you so much
for Johnny and I really appreciate it. This has been
a fascinating conversation. I think that from Canadian standpoint, we
have to be cognizant of this situation and our obligations,
whether they be NATO obligations or human moral obligations to
support Ukraine. I think that Elena and Sergeant Malik are
(49:34):
are right. The chance for peace is very low. I
don't believe Putin really wants peace UH. And I worry
that Trump wants peace just to say that he cheat
piece and isn't really worried about what what he has
to give up to to gain peace. I'm worried about
the historical connectivit connectivity to our similarities to the Budapest Memorandum,
(49:56):
where there were security guarantees provided that we're all and
people didn't honor them, and that includes Western countries as
well as Russia. I'm worried that one of the lessons
of the Budapest Memorandum to countries is that you don't
give up nuclear weapons if you've got them, and I
(50:18):
think that one of the history lessons is going to
be that Ukraine made a mistake and giving up those
nuclear weapons, because if it had nuclear weapons, it wouldn't
have been invaded, and I think that's a bad lesson,
and I think that's bad for the world in the future.
I think that there's similarities to whether it be Yalta
where you had two superpowers carving up the world and
spheres of influence, and I think that's wrong, or whether
(50:39):
it's similarities to Munich and Chamberlain coming and appeasing Hitler
and giving him territory that he thought the Western world
at the time thought might be enough, and it was
never enough, and so therefore Alena would be right that
potentially it would lead to continue to attack to Ukraine
in the future, and or perhaps even to the Baltics
(51:01):
in Poland. I think that tyrants need to be stopped,
and I think that the lesson of the last eighty
years has been that, hopefully successfully, countries have abided by
the belief that taking over territory by force is wrong
and against international law, and people would be disciplined for it.
And regrettably, President Putin never heard that story, never heard
(51:25):
that message never lived it. So I think that, particularly
as the United States potentially diminishes that commitments to Ukraine
and to international laws and respective borders, Canada needs to
stand with Ukraine and support Ukraine. And I think our
(51:46):
Prime Minister visit a Kiev recently and dedicated a significant
military expenditure, and I think that's the right thing to do. Anyway, Elena,
Sergeant Malick, really appreciate your joining us tonight. Thanks, that's
our show for tonight and people, please stay safe. I'm
so glad that you've connected up with me again.
Speaker 1 (52:05):
Good head, everybody, no radio, no problem. Stream is live
on SAGA nine sixty am dot c a
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