MUST-KNOW Golf Betting Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge 2025 Best Bets & Predictions

The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club is set to tee off, and we've got your comprehensive betting preview covered. With World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler entering as the overwhelming favorite at +250 odds, fresh off his PGA Championship victory, the spotlight is firmly on him. However, value can be found deeper in the field.

Daniel Berger, a past winner at Colonial, is priced at 25-1 and is drawing attention from experts due to his consistent ball-striking and recent form. J.T. Poston, coming off a fifth-place finish at the PGA Championship, is another contender to watch at 40-1, boasting a strong track record on similar courses. For those seeking long-shot opportunities, players like Emiliano Grillo (100-1) and Adam Schenk (250-1) present intriguing options, especially considering their familiarity with Texas courses and recent performances.

Weather conditions, including potential thunderstorms and high winds, could play a significant role in this tournament, potentially leveling the playing field and offering opportunities for strategic bets. We'll delve into these factors, providing insights on top picks, sleepers, and betting strategies to help you make informed decisions.

For detailed analysis, expert picks, and more betting content, visit www.fffaceoff.com.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Very happy to be on the mic with all of
you watching, going to be previewing the upcoming PGA Tour
event in Fort Worth, Texas. It is the twenty twenty
five Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a tournament that has
seen Scotty Scheffler, world number one golfer, come close to

(00:22):
getting that outright win three years in a row, but
Scheffler has fallen just short. Now, coming off of his
first major win at the PGA Championship last week, there's
a great opportunity for Scheffler to go on a run.
And ironically, he hasn't won three events on the PGA

(00:46):
Tour consecutively through his highly decorated career. So this is
a great opportunity for Schffler to try to get the
latest feat under his belt, which would be three straight
wins culminating with an out right here at the Charles
Schwab Challenge. This is in Scheffler's backyard. He's a resident

(01:09):
of Dallas, of Fort Worth. Dallas kind of like the
Twin Cities there. But yeah, they're going back to Texas
for the fourth time this season on the PGA Tour
and oddsmakers are going ham on Schefler, and there's no
reason not to at this point. The guy is in
peak form right now. He's coming off of a dominant

(01:31):
eight stroke victory that was played in nearby McKinney, Texas
at the CJ Cut Byron Nelson a couple of weeks ago.
He shot thirty one under par. Yeah you heard that right,
thirty one under par at the breakthrough win in twenty
twenty five during the CJ Cup Byron Nelson that was
at TPC Craig Ranch. Just a birdie fest. This is

(01:53):
going to be a lot different. This is not a
birdie fest here at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In fact,
it's one of the hardest part seventies on the PGA
tow or year in and year out. So yeah, we're
not going to see nearly as much red on the
scorecards this week. But if you take a look at
the current odds which I have available right here the
outright market, typically you see a player that's favored to

(02:15):
win between like plus five hundred plus nine hundred, depending
on who's in the field. Scheffler was a favorite every
single event this season prior to his win, so following
these back to back wins at CJ Cupbyron Nelson at
the PGA Championship, He's shortened to the price of plus

(02:36):
two forty in the outright market. That is astoundingly short
for golf betting. You know, in the vacuum you get
plus two forty odds. You know, personally I'd be happy,
but from the context of golf outrights, you know, there's
been guys that have cashed at over one hundred to
one this year at various events. So getting plus two

(02:57):
forty certainly will turn a lot of golf betters off.
But I'm here today with my first best bet to
tell you that laying the chalk with Scheffler at plus
two forty is a good investment. Now, these are all
one unit plays I'm providing, and I'm starting with the
outright winning market and focusing on Scheffler as the overwhelming

(03:19):
favorite at plus two forty odds. The next closest in
the field to Scheffler is Daniel Berger, who won this
event I believe in twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, Yeah,
it was five years ago. He won this event. He's
twenty two to one plus twenty two hundred odds to
win this week at the CJ. I'm sorry, at the

(03:42):
Charles Schwab Challenge, that is just insane. Man. Another guy
who's a local with a lot of fanfare that has
a lot of success at this tournament. Jordan Speeth is
also a big betting favorite relative to the field outside
of Scheffler at twenty five to one, So you got
twenty two to one, Jordan Speed twenty five to one.

(04:03):
Both of those guys have won this event, but it's
been a number of years since that happened. Hadeki Matziyama
is also twenty five to one with Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood
has never won on the PGA Tours, so I don't
really put a lot of emphasis on him making a
big stand this week. But yeah, Berger and Speed, they've
had their moments this year, but they are nowhere close

(04:27):
to playing as consistently well as what we've seen from
Scotti Scheffler. If you want some data to back up
Scheffler and why he's still a good fit at such
a short price, you know, here's the thing. He's gone
inside the top three, including a playoff loss at the
Charles Schwab Challenge, in the past three times he's played
this event. He's knocking on the door. He knows that

(04:49):
he can complete three consecutive wins for the first time
in his career with a win in Fort Worth this
week going to be a ton of family and friends
and they've crowd. I'm sure supporting Scottie, so I just
don't see him slowing down at all. Plus two forty
he is ranked currently first and total strokes gained second,

(05:11):
strokes gained off the te first strokes gained approach, fifteenth
strokes gain putting. Now, the strokes game putting metric is
huge because if you are a golf better or a
golf fan, you know that Scheffler's weakness throughout his recent
surge on the PGA Tour has been putting. He's cleaned
that up substantially in twenty twenty five. He's fifth and

(05:33):
putting average, eleventh and putts per round and seventeenth and
one put percentage. This has led to leading the PGA
Tour and scoring average on par four scoring and yeah,
there's not enough you can say about him. He's third
at finding Green's regulation, it's seventy point eight percent, second
in whole proximity, and he's twenty seventh in driving accuracy now,

(05:55):
driving accurate accuracy is going to be massive at of
course like Colonial Country Club this week, a lot of
dog legged fairways that are fairly thin, and there are
some trees in play as well, so if you're getting
an errant lie off to tee, it's going to be

(06:15):
a bit difficult to recover. Greens run average about five
thousand square feet, which is, you know, right in the
middle of average for a PGA to our course. It's
not small, it's not huge. The bent grass greens were
a recent renovation a couple of years ago, and those
are known for being extremely fast paced. I think it's
going to run up to thirteen feet for punning velocity

(06:37):
this week. So guys who can read bent grass greens,
as we've seen Scheffler be able to do that this
season and throughout his career, that's going to give him
an edge. But like I said, there's not this isn't
I would not call this week the week to get
cute and trendy and look for one of these long
shot guys. It could happen. I mean we did see,

(07:01):
you know, Scheffler had his work cut out for him.
After the front nine on Sunday at Quail Hollow Club
during the PGA Championship with John Rahm, who was not
a long shot, but he was what twenty to one,
twenty five to one compared to Scheffler's five to one,
So yeah, you know, at one point Rom had tied
Scheffler and then Scheffler just put his foot on the gas,

(07:24):
separated from the pack, and he doesn't make mistakes consistently.
Maybe there's a bogie here there, but he's gonna bounce
back with a birdie on the next hole almost always.
So yeah, there's the formula for catching a plus two
forty ticket on the PGA Tour this week. You ride
the chock. We're going one unit on Scotty Scheffler to
be the outright winner at the Charles Schwab Challenge and

(07:48):
completing his first ever three consecutive event win streak. So yeah,
lock up Scheffler is the chalk here. It's not necessarily
a great value play, but it's a play that's going
to look very very enticing come Friday or Saturday when
Scheffler's minus five hundred to win. So a couple other

(08:09):
bets real quick here to take at the Charles Schwab
Challenge includes I'm just gonna stay in the finishing markets.
If you've never bet a finishing market wager before, it's
there are dead heat grading associated with that, which means
that if there's over five guys you finish in the

(08:31):
top five, you divide the payout by However many come
inside the top house, So if there's like a four
way tie fifth and then there's seven or eight guys
that finish type fifth or higher, you're going to have
to split that payout amongst all eight of those. So
for tournaments that have a lot of traffic in a

(08:55):
particular position, it can reduce the payout of it. But
I still like this market. It gives you action and
a lot to sweat throughout the week end for those
golfers that do make the cut. So yeah, top finishing markets.
I'm looking at DraftKings right now. Specifically, they have you
can bet top five, top ten. I'm sorry, you can

(09:17):
bet top five, top ten, twenty thirty forty. Now Here
are some of the bets that I like, outside of
Scheffler to win this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge,
I have Aaron Rye for a top thirty finish at
minus one twenty odds on DraftKings, Harris English for a
top thirty finish at minus one of five odds on DraftKings,

(09:38):
and Brian Harmon as a plus odds wager at plus
one twenty. All of these guys have fared well at
the Charles Schwab Challenge in recent appearances. I think Rye
was t thirty two and twenty twenty four, so he
didn't cash this ticket last year. But Rye's coming off
of three straight top thirty finishes, including the ten nineteen

(10:00):
at the PGA Championships, so he's in good form. He
leads the PJA Tour and fairways hit with his driving accuracy.
Not a lot of power off the tee, but he
does compensate ranking inside the top twenty for Green's hitting,
regulation and strokes, skin down approach. All of those skills
are going to come into play here at of course,

(10:20):
like Colonial, so Aaron Raye, He's thirty to one, which
is pretty short for him to win an event. He's
only done it once in his career. But I do
like betting on Ride to record a top thirty finish
at minus one twenty odds. I think that's pretty good
value here Harris English had a phenomenal round, going six

(10:43):
under on Sunday at the PGA Championship to surge into
a T two finish. He's minus one o five to
car to top thirty finish and last season we did
at the Charles Schwab Challenge see English missed the cut,
so maybe that that's why we're getting pretty decent value
on him entering this event. But he did record a

(11:07):
T twelve and twenty twenty three, so it's not all
bad when it comes to English's history at Colonial. But
you know, he's great strokes, game putting and strict hanging
off the tee are kind of his specialty areas for English.
So yeah, I like Harris English close to Evan Odds

(11:27):
to record a top thirty finish and then Brian Harmon
mister megacorp himself, I think, one of the shortest players
in height on the PGA Tour, but he's turned in
a couple of top thirty finishes at the past two
editions of the Charles twelve Challenge. So he did win
the Valero Texas Open early April, so and then follow

(11:51):
that up with a T three in a signature event
at the RBC heritage, so a couple of bad performances
sliding outside the top four and back to back events,
including at the PGA Championship. It is why Harmon's available
at plus one twenty to post a top thirty finish
this week at Colonial. But I do think he comes

(12:12):
through leaning on his te De Green accuracy putting has
been an issue for Harmon, but I believe that he'll
be able to score low enough to wind up inside
the top thirty at plus odds. So yeah, those are
all my best bets here at the Charles Schwab Challenge

(12:34):
at Colonial Country Club, It's a par seventy runs under
seventy three hundred yards. There's two par fives, four part
three's that are between one ninety four and two forty eight,
and a lot of the par fours are under four
hundred fifty yards. So if you're accurate tea to green,
you're going to be able to compensate for not having
a ton of distance and power off the tea, which
guys like Harmon and Rye do not possess. So to

(12:59):
quickly recap all my best bets for the PGA Charles
Schwab Challenge, that tease off tomorrow morning, I like, what
is it three golfers to go inside the top thirty
in the top thirty finishing market. We got Aaron Ry
at minus one twenty, Harris English at minus one oh five,
and Brian Harmon at plus one twenty. And I'm gonna

(13:24):
bet the chalk take the world number one golfer Scotti
Scheffler as he aims to win three straight events for
the first time on his PGA Tour career. The guy
is red hot. He leaves the PGA Tour in almost
every metric, and he's placed inside the top three three
straight times playing at this course. So I just don't

(13:47):
see any scenario where Scheffler doesn't win this event. And
plus two forty is really short, But come Friday or Saturday,
when he's minus two hundred, minus three hundred, et cetera,
it's you're going to regret not taken him at this number.
So I would bet up to two units on Schaffleer
plus two forty to be the outright winner, and then
one unit plays for each of those top thirty finishing

(14:11):
prop bets that I just ran through. So thanks again
for tuning in to the Ffaceoff. Appreciate the viewership and
hopefully we sweep this board. Go four to oh and
enjoy watching Scotty dominate at a course in his hometown