Fantasy Hockey Life Ep. 414 Otttawa Senators with Alex Adams

Alex Adams of Sportsnet is here to report on the Ottawa Senators. Jesse and Victor interview Alex about returning pros Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk, Dylan Cozens, Claude Giroux, Shane Pinto, Ridly Greig, Fabian Zetterlund, Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Jordan Spence, Linus Ullmark, and Leevi Meralainen. In Cat's Instincts, Cat Silverman of InGoal mag breaks down Leevi Merilainen and Mads Sogaard.  In the Dynasty Dig, Victor breaks down Carter Yakemchuk, Logan Hensler, and ... well, that is probably enough ... with the help of scouting reports from FHL Scout Tim and Tony and X polls from NHL Rank King Mason Black. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by Fantrax.com. Email [e-mail] and ask to join our free discord. Join our Patreon at Patreon.com/fantasyhockeylife for rankings, bonus podcasts, in-depth prospect reports with video, show notes and more. Check out our YouTube for more prospect videos at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQPYVXp3foOcvh7344fjKmA. Listen and subscribe wherever podcasts are posted - and give us 5 stars! We want to be your best place to talk about the game of dynasty fantasy hockey

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by Fan Tracks. Here's
your source of information and analysis to help you win
your fantasy hockey league.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Block off hot a step hit on staylock block.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
Here's your hosts, Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno.

Speaker 3 (00:24):
Fantasy Hockey Live once again. Victor Nunio, the Fantasy Hockey Doctor,
joins me. Jesse Severe, the Fantasy Hockey regular guy who
makes a lot of eighties movie references. Jesse Severe and Victor,
how you doing today?

Speaker 4 (00:40):
I'm doing awesome, Jesse. I like that. I like that
Moniker for you.

Speaker 3 (00:44):
The truth and advertising. That's all I know.

Speaker 4 (00:47):
Man.

Speaker 3 (00:48):
Yeah, Victor, we're having a good old time today. We're
having a good old time blazing through the summer when
everybody else goes up to their cabins or wherever you
go at this point for the fire days that it's
warm in the extreme North. And nonetheless, we just keep
cranking out the episodes, Victor, and when you want to
listen to these episodes, what you need to do is

(01:09):
pop over to the Fantasy Hockey Life Discord afterwards and
discuss them, because we've got fantasy rookie drafts to do, people,
and all you need to do to get into our
discord for free is email is Fantasy HOCKEYLFET gmail dot com.
We're not putting you on like a mailing list or something.
Don't worry about that. And somebody wrote us this week
and said, you know some was it like if it's
not too much trouble or I'm wondering if I could

(01:31):
do that get it. I'm like, dude, you're our favorite
person if you come and ask for a link to apologize.
So anyway, Yeah, everybody, come on a board. It's a
very nice space. People are pretty cool. And you could
also do other things. Victor tell them what else they
could do if they want to get more involved with
what we got going.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Yeah, tons of other stuff you can do. To get
some bonus content and to stay involved, you can support
the show through Patreon. You can get some bonus content
that way. Patroon cast, you can get show notes, you
can get player cards, tiers, ranks, you can get some
roster doctors, some one on one help. I just did
one today helping a couple people helping co pilot their

(02:13):
startup drafts or their entry drafts. I think that's it
really depends on the situation of your team and what's
going on with you, so it's nice to get that
personalized help. You can also join the Tidy the Tier
Dynasty Super Fun League, we talk about it on the show.
You can compete against some of the best Dynasty players
and it's a perk of being a patron, so why not.
It's a great time. We're definitely going to be starting

(02:34):
up a new division or having a new draft in
our bottom division, so you can do that lots of
fun and then work your way up. So check all
that out over patreon dot com slash Fantasy Hockey.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
Player and we'll be right back to talk a lot
of US centers. Welcome to the show. Back to the show,
Alex Adams of Sportsnet, ready to talk about some Ottawa
Senate How you doing today, Alex.

Speaker 5 (03:02):
Great, guys, it's summertime. There's nothing on the go. Just
I missed the NHL already. I think it's eighty three
days until the next Sens regular season game, and obviously
the NHL's in eighty days or so, so I miss it.

Speaker 4 (03:15):
I need to back right now.

Speaker 5 (03:16):
This is my summertime, trying to bring back the vibes
of hockey season.

Speaker 3 (03:21):
Yep, it's for sure a time when I can understand
really looking forward to that because the Senators had us
on the edge of our seats last time we saw
them out in the ice. It was the first Senator's
playoff appearance if I'm reading my stats since the great
Hamburglar Caper of twenty seventeen, when they went all the
way to the conference finals, and it really felt to

(03:42):
those of us watching the sends from Afar like a
breakthrough last year, especially from March one onward. They finished
fifteen five and three. They threw Leafs fans into a
brief existential crisis in the playoffs, which is always I'm
sure fun for Ottawa led the league in power play goals?
Is that right? I guess they did for the third
straight year. They weren't great shooters. Twenty fourth or twenty

(04:04):
fifth in shooting percentage can't be as good, but it
also came with roughly top ten shot volume in every case,
so they emphasize getting the pucks on net. Is the
vibe around the team still as positive as it seems
like it should be from the outside, and you think
they can build on it this coming year, Alex and
it really stacked still Atlantic.

Speaker 5 (04:24):
A division yeah, I think the vibes are really good
in Ottawa. Obviously, come out of the gates slow and
everything changes, right, everyone in July, August, September, it's a
new season. Everyone can make the playoffs. I don't know
about the Pittsburgh Penguins, but everyone says they could make
the playoffs, right, But I do think the vibes in
Auto are really good. As you mentioned, their division is

(04:47):
really tough with Montreal Toronto obviously, the two Florida teams
still milling about and everyone else, so it's going to
be a tough division to make it out. But I
think the teams by far better than it was to
begin last season, and I think they're a better team
than the one that took on the Maple Leafs in
the playoffs as well. You add in Jordan's Spence instead

(05:07):
of playing Travis Hamnick for god knows how many minutes
to begin last season. I think that's such a huge
upgrade on the right side of the defense. I still
think you look at their core, right, Tim Stutz is
not twenty three, Shane Pinto's twenty five, Ridley Gregg's like
twenty three to twenty two, Brady could Check's only twenty six.
They're still a pretty young team, right, and maybe not

(05:28):
everyone improves from last season, but you'd think for the
most part of this core of guys basically twenty six
to under in that twenty three to twenty five range,
that they should get markedly better. And if they as
a whole get five percent better, then the team's likely
going to be five percent better. I still think Jake Sanderson,
people in Ottawa have known about how good he is

(05:49):
for a long time, but I think at the Four Nations,
the Battle of Montario first round playoff series, you could
just see him blossom and he's a dog. He's going
to be better next year. He's a gym rat, just
such a hockey lifer. I think he's gonna probably be
in that Norris Trophy, maybe not gonna win it, but
in the conversation as a finalist next year, just the

(06:12):
way his trajectory is going. So I think they have
everything in place to be a really good team. Now,
are they top three in the Atlantic? I think they
can be, or could they regress and be just on
that line of two or three points out of the
playoffs two or three points and I think that's possible.
If things injuries, bad goal heading, everything right, It's hockey.

(06:33):
Anything can happen. But I think they're a better team.
I think they're in a better position to go deeper
in the playoffs, to be a higher seed heading into
the playoffs. Aren't any crazy injuries or something dramatic happening,
indeed lost potential outcomes. Let's start with some of the
individual players in the forwards. Of course, we're gonna start
with Tim Stutchla. He set a new career high and assist.

Speaker 2 (06:56):
And power play points, which was pretty nice, but he
did fall under that point per game pace for the
second time after his ninety five point season, which was
now three years ago, and he's had two of those
under point per game season. We like him a lot
because his bash is pretty good. Even with those high points.
He gets over four blocks of shots and hits per

(07:16):
game and ranks one hundred and ninetieth in that metric
and in our tier dynasty he's a top thirty player.
Pretty valuable. But I guess the question, Alex is this
who he is now? Is he going to be this
seventy to eighty point guy or do you think he
can get back to that over eighty point point pace
type of guy, like ninety to one hundred or is

(07:37):
he under that?

Speaker 5 (07:39):
I think for him it's I've interviewed him a ton
of times this year and I would keep asking him like,
why aren't you shooting like you get in all these
high danger areas, and he just refused to shoot and
always tried to be too cute or make a pass
when he was in the slot. I think if he
can regain I think he had thirty nine goals in
the twenty two to twenty three season. If he's a

(07:59):
thirty goal he's going to be in that ninety one
hundred point window as a point producer. If he's more
twenty twenty five goal guy, I think then yeah, he's
maybe a point per game or a couple points below,
a couple points above in that vicinity. So I think
for him it's his goal scoring. It's something that he

(08:19):
harkened on later in the season, saying, I need to
shoot more. I need to be more aggressive in terms
of finding holes and just basically launching the puck on
net more often. He has a good shot too, so
he did have a wrist injury, a left rist injury
two seasons ago. I wonder if that's still bothering him.
He obviously wouldn't say it, but I think for fantasy purposes,

(08:40):
I don't know where he lands next year. I do
think he'll be a better player. He was better this
year offensively than he was the year before. Obviously not
as good as two years ago. But he was telling
me how three years ago, when he had his breakout years,
he was just jumping the zone, just trying to go
for offense, and now he's trying to win games and
be much more defensively minded.

Speaker 4 (08:57):
And I don't think that's going to change. In my opinion,
he shoots better.

Speaker 5 (09:00):
If his shooting percentage goes up even a couple percentage points,
I think he's going to be in that eighty five
ninety per point range. And I think the team itself
there were thirtieth or thirty first and five on five goals.
Some of that was offensive generation or lack thereof a
lot of that was also their shooting percentage was awful, too,
and I think if that regresses more to the mean.

(09:21):
Obviously you mentioned the power play, I don't think they're
going to lead the league in power power play goals
next year, but I still think they should be a
good power play when you have Tim Brady could Chuck
Jake Sanderson breaking out offensively. So overall, I think he's
going to have a better season next year, and it's
going to be curious to see how much he improves
offensively at the same time while not mitigating his defensive prowess,

(09:44):
which he became really good defensively in his own end,
which he really never was prior to last season.

Speaker 2 (09:51):
Indeed, looking at his evolving hockey metrics, their elite offensively
and defensively decline there. Let's switch over to Drake Batherson.
This was his third straight season playing the full eighty
two games. Before that, he had a bit of an
issue playing all his games, but he's been good on that.
Forty two assists, sixty eight points, both career best. One

(10:12):
hundred and forty eight hits was not only a career high,
but the previous was one fifteen. So we love that
he pushed his bash all the way up to four
point four nine per game, ranking him one hundred and
twenty fifth, which is really good, especially for a guy
who gets as many points as he does, because a
lot of those bashers tend not to score as much.
But do you think Alex his hits are going to

(10:34):
continue and do you think he has a little bit
more scoring in him or is he going to be
this sixty five to seventy point pace player.

Speaker 5 (10:43):
He would tell you that he plays his best hockey
when he's physical. That's what gets him engaged. And I
think you could tell how much of an emphasis he
put on the physicality of his game this year. As
you mentioned career high in hits. I think offensively, he's
probably in that range where he is probably consistent sixty
point guy.

Speaker 4 (11:02):
The Senators again, if they can.

Speaker 5 (11:04):
Get better at five on five and create more, I
think that will really open things up for him. He
obviously doesn't play with Tim Stutzla. Him and Dylan Cousins
look good together at times, but I wouldn't have said
that they felt super dynamic and super lethal on the ice,
especially at five on five. I think he's in that
sixty point range. Maybe he gets up to seventy, but

(11:24):
I would be surprised if he all of a sudden
is a point per game player next year. He's he
had that high ankle sprain a couple of years ago
where he was a point per game player and he
really hasn't come back down to earth there. And I
think with Travis Green, he's really focusing on the defensive end,
especially with a guy like Drake Bathurson, who hasn't been
good in his own end for a long time but.

Speaker 4 (11:44):
Did get better this year.

Speaker 5 (11:45):
I just I'd be surprised if he takes a leap,
but I also feel like it's he's a pretty consistent
bet to be in that sixty point range, have close
to that many hits and still be a pretty good player.

Speaker 3 (11:59):
Now we get to Rady Kuchuk, who of course is
one of my favorite NHL players. His normal great run
at the end of the season or the great run
for the whole team is marred by injuries with Kachuk
as he was yet another late season dinged up guy,
but he had his typical performance for the whole year.
Over three hits, over four shots per game is just gold. Kachuck,

(12:21):
like many of us, are not as young as we
used to be, and as you said before, he's only
twenty six. He'll turn twenty six anyway before opening nights,
so he's been to hockey middle age. I would say
at this point still peak times, playing only about eighteen
average time on ice last year, that big shot total
mixed with the NHL's third highest expected goal rate, And

(12:42):
I also tried to look at his type of shots
that said he had the third most tip shots.

Speaker 4 (12:47):
Yeah, in the last year.

Speaker 3 (12:49):
That's he's up near the net, he's being physical, and
that's his expected goal rate is high because he's taking
those shots up close. All that said, it didn't necessarily
pay off. You'd think being closer up the shooting would
be higher. Shooting percentage dropped to nine point eight percent.
League average was ten point seven. Of course, it's not
quite so easy to make a tip shot. You're not

(13:09):
going to make thirty percent on tip shots there. But anyway,
the contract for Brady Kachuck still a bargain in a
rising cap environment. If you ask me, what is next
for Kachuk and could we get him back to that
point per game pace that we had him on a
couple of years back.

Speaker 4 (13:24):
Yeah, I think who knows?

Speaker 5 (13:26):
Like he plays such a physical style and you could
see how at the end of the year he had
a growing issue. He had a hip issue, got a
and in the head as well. I wonder if he's
going to be a guy that's always every NHL players
banged up, more so with Brady. But I do think
that last year the Senators were really snake bit, and
I think Victor talked about it at the beginning of

(13:47):
the show, like one of the lowest shooting percentages in
the league the past couple years, they were creating a
lot of chances. I thought their pressure was really good
at times. I know people within the Sense organization they
felt they weren't getting enough from the right side of defense.
And I think with Spence that can improve pup possession.
And I think that the Senators will really be in
other team zones even more so than they were last year.

(14:10):
But to get back to Kachuck, I think he was
really snake bit, and I think if he comes into
camp he's healthy. He got injured in preseason as well.
Him and Tim Stutzla are one of the best duos
in the NHL analytically speaking, point production wise, on the
power play, I'd be surprised if Brady isn't back up
into that high thirties goals, the shooting percentage goes up

(14:33):
a little bit. I just think he had a bit
of a down year, but mostly because he was injured
rather than anything about his own play, and you saw
him in the playoffs. He was an absolute animal on
one leg. If he has both his legs and he's
relatively healthy, I think he's gonna put up really good
numbers and get back to that point per game pace.
And I think if both him and Timmy their offense

(14:55):
goes up ten percent, I think they both could have
like really big years where they're that eighty to ninety
point range, maybe even higher in Tim Stewtz's case. So
I think this team's if they have a really good
year on the ice, it's those two guys leading the charge,
and I think they're primed and ready for it. They've
learned how to win, they know how to play winning hockey,

(15:15):
and I think now they can maybe focus a little
bit on the offensive side of the game, where last
year Travis Green was literally didn't teach any offensive principles
until midway through the season, so it was all about defense.
And I think this year he'd be the first to
a minute in terms of Green that they're going to
think about, Hey, okay, we have the basics on the
defensive side, now let's try to open things up at

(15:37):
least a little bit to be better at creating chances
and goals, and so I think that'll really help. But
pretty good Chuck, But yeah, he's a fantasy monster. Hits obviously,
shoots at like wild rates, and obviously puts up points
as well. So I think he's a pretty safe bet.

Speaker 3 (15:54):
There's been a lot of kind of stability in this roster,
but one big addition. Dylan Cousins this past year moved
in for the year traded for Josh Norris. His performance
perked up noticeably after moving north of the border, as
he contributed five goals and eleven assists in the last
twenty one games where he was a part. Advanced Stats

(16:14):
did not love his rights on even strength y maybe
he didn't get there in time for Professor Green's early
lessons and had to jump in at the end there.
To be fair, they didn't really love the d that
is the expected stats in Buffalo either. That wasn't really
Dylan cousins calling card. He got a fair bit of
power play Tom and Ice with Ottawatt, so that was good.
Is he going to be a firm second liner and

(16:36):
part of that deadly Ottawa power play next year? What
are you expecting from his first full year in Red
and Black.

Speaker 5 (16:42):
Alex Yeah, I think you hit the nail in terms
of just he's almost like a guy that is that
lit miss test for this team, right if he's a
really good player, if he can be that guy where
I think it was two years ago he had thirty
some goals, seventy points. If he's in that vicinity, I
think the Senators could be challenging for the top of

(17:03):
the Atlantic. And I think obviously Dyldan Cousins having a
big year. But I've not sold on his defensive play
just seeing him for the past couple of years and
that Leaf series Travis Green was hiding him. I don't know.
He's still a young player. He got out of Buffalo.
You can look at all the players that have left
Buffalo and been exceedingly dominant elsewhere. I don't think that

(17:23):
I'm low on him, but I still think that in
many ways, this is a bit of a proven year
for him.

Speaker 4 (17:29):
He will get power play time to ask.

Speaker 5 (17:31):
To answer your point, I'd be surprised if they took
him off the number one unit. They were really they
did really well together. He was a big part of that.
He might sometimes go in the second power play unit
as well, but I think for the most part he
will be on that first unit as just a shooter,
which that unit lacks at times. So I still think
he's going to be that fifty sixty point guy probably.

(17:53):
I think he's going to be on a good team.
He's going to get a lot of possession, a lot
of offensive zone starts. If you look at Travis Green's
utilization of him, basically never started his own end, at
least in like big games, So I expect that to
some degree as well next season, but not fantasy aside.
I think if he becomes much better defensively just even

(18:14):
averagely gaverage, drives play a little bit more, and can
generate some offense and be that guy a Cup from
a couple of years ago, I think Audaw is gonna
be in a great position. But I think really if
Dylan Cousins plays well, the Centers are probably going to
be a really good team. If he doesn't play so well,
then they might be on that outside looking in for
the playoffs. I think he's going to be a huge
factor in terms of how well that this team does

(18:37):
the next season.

Speaker 3 (18:39):
No pressure, kid, no pressure from somebody who We're still
trying to understand what he will be in the NHL.
To somebody who I think we pretty well understand at
this point, Clauseru is a seasoned veteran, a thirty seven
year old who continues to age very gracefully. If you
ask me, he takes a slightly lower rate in terms

(18:59):
of contract to extend another year in his late career
home in Ottawa benefits from playing with team leading scorer
Tim Stutzler as his most common line mate, but Dreu's
offensive bona fide is are beyond question at this point.
I guess you'd say that seventy nine point debut three
years ago in Ottawa was probably not coming back. That's
probably something you can do at thirty four and not

(19:20):
at thirty seven. But what would you say your expectations
are for Drew in the coming year? Top liner? What
kind of production?

Speaker 4 (19:28):
A great point.

Speaker 5 (19:29):
I think that this is going to be a bit
of a big top point of contention and hot topic
in Ottawa. He has been aging gracefully, but I think
he had seventy nine his first year points I think
sixty five two years ago and now fifty, so he's
gone down like fifteen to fourteen points the last couple
of years. I thought during the regular season he wasn't

(19:50):
shooting the puck enough. He has a good shot and
just won't use it. He really looked like he was
a step slow at a lot of times. But the
one thing he does have is that he has amazing
chemistry with Tim Stuitts and Brady Kuchuk, who he's played
with the last three years. Primarily, that line is really proficient,
and at times Travis Green would have to split them
up just to get the other lines going. So I

(20:11):
think he's going to still be on probably the second
power play unit. I don't think he'll be on the
top unit anymore. But if he can shoot the puck
a little bit more, which at times he's mentioned that
he wants to do, I think he can be a
bit better offensively. I think if the team again at
five on five, goes from thirtieth and five on five

(20:32):
goals to fifteenth even or twelfth, he's probably closer to
sixty points than he is to forty. So I think
he's still a really good player. I don't expect him
to have thirty five points next year. I still think
him to see him to be productive. Look at the playoffs.
He had I think five or six points in the playoffs,
so he's still good when it mattered. He's still a

(20:54):
really smart player. I think that's the thing that will
make him age. Like fine wine, I think he's going
to be a really good player, But I think at
times he's gonna be on the third line, and it's
gonna be interesting to see how he deals with that
as a guy who's been a top line guy basically
since he jumped into the league. He played for two
games on the third line in Autawa and then immediately
went back up to the top line. So I think

(21:15):
we'll see more of that next season, but he'll get
a couple He'll still be on the power play, but
I still think he'll play with Kachuk and Suits a
fair bit, and I think he'll be in a pretty
good position to be in that forty to fifty point range.

Speaker 3 (21:28):
Well, I'm gonna give you a pick on between two
guys here who they're tantalizing. They been tantalizing is for
a while. Shane Pinto, Ridley grig Pinto. Last year's seventy games,
twenty one goals and sixteen assists. Greg last year seventy
eight games, thirteen goals and twenty one assists, both younger twenties.

(21:49):
What do you think of the progress of these fellas
and which of them do you think is going to
be more productive next year.

Speaker 4 (21:56):
I think Shane Pintol will be.

Speaker 5 (21:57):
I think he's just naturally a guy that gets that
twenty twenty five goal range. He got injured early in
the season and that set him back. I think he
didn't score goal for fifteen sixteen games and he wasn't
on the power play unit at the end of the year,
and I think that's going to probably change next year,
at least I would do that. I think he is
one of the best shots on the team. I don't

(22:18):
know why you're not putting him on the power play unit.
Dravis Screen basically says he wants him to focus on
the PK, where he is a very good penalty killer.
But I just think his scoring wise, he just he
has an elite shot that will get him that twenty
twenty five goals that I just don't think Ridley Greg has.
I think Ridley greg is a really good player. I

(22:38):
thought at the end of the season. For I think
the last thirty forty games he had twenty two points
or something like that. Like he he got much better
at the end of the season, like Pinto, So I
think he'll take another step offensively, maybe become more of
a fifteen thirty five point guy, give or take fifteen
goals thirty five points. So I expect them both to

(22:58):
have better years. But I think into just with his shot,
he's never gonna get you that many assists. He's not
a playmaker or a natural playmaker, but he knows how
to shoot the puck. And I think if he gets
on the power play a little bit more, he's going
to bury bury a couple more chances. And I think
he could probably be in that twenty five goal range
next year if everything goes to play.

Speaker 3 (23:18):
So we've been through a number of the forwards. Is
there any other forward on this team you think could
maybe at least hit a fifty point pace, or anybody
who are particularly optimistic about there?

Speaker 5 (23:27):
Alex, I think Zetterlund is the guy to me that's
really intriguing. He was on pace to have twenty goals
before it came to Ottawa last season only had two
and I think nineteen games, and he just had almost
like sometimes you see like the all time misses, those
like reels. It felt like every great chance the goal
he made us spectacular save or he hit the post
like he was getting chances and his analytics were good.

(23:49):
I think at times he's gonna play with Tim Stutzlu
and I think that's the kind of guy Stutson needs.

Speaker 4 (23:54):
It's a guy that has a rocket of a shot.

Speaker 5 (23:56):
So I think if he gets more power play time
he's playing up in the lineup, I think there's a
chance that he can be that twenty five goals, twenty
five assists type of player if everything goes well. That's
the one guy that I could see if the Sins
play well, they're scoring a bunch of goals, that he's
going to get a bunch of those. So I think
that's the one player that I think if midway through

(24:18):
the season On was doing well and he has ten
goals in his first twenty eight games or something like that,
I could see it leading to a big offensive season
for him.

Speaker 2 (24:27):
All right, let's move over to the defense and Jake
Sanderson career year. In mini metrics games played, goals, assists,
he had a fifty nine point pace. He had the
most shots, power play points, blocks, power play time, total
time on ice. It was pretty awesome. Excellent metrics both
offensively and defensively, and his bash was high, just under

(24:47):
five per game and which ranked him sixty third amongst
all skaters. And as you mentioned, Alex, he's going to
be in the Norris conversation, and I totally agree. People
have been asking me in fantasy whether they should trade
Sanderson this or that package, and my response is you
better get in a lead package back because this guy
is just reaching his peak. So I'm generally advising people

(25:09):
not to move on from him. I think that would
be a mistake right now. But what do you think
we can expect from Jake Sanderson this season? Is there
even more offense to come? Do you think he can
get over sixty points or do you think where what
we saw last season is what we should expect on
the regular from him now?

Speaker 5 (25:24):
I think to answer both those questions, I think he
is gonna I think he's going to take another leap offensively.
If you looked, I think from like mid January, give
or take like it could be off a little bit.
He was almost a point per game player. In his
last thirty five games. He had thirty points in the
last thirty game five games to begin the season. For
people that don't know, because not everyone watches the Senators,

(25:45):
he was paired with Travis Hamminick, who, if you look
at his wards, like him and bench Rot were like
the two worst defenders last year. And no shade on
Travis Hamminick, but it was just an anchor for Sanderson
who had a really good camp. He looked really promising,
and basically from the turn of the year, when Hamminik
was removed, artam Zup came back, you could just see

(26:06):
him go like this, like just up and up, and
I think he's gonna be a guy that's in that
sixty seventy point range for a long time. He quarters
backs to power play that I think is gonna be
really good when you have Brady Kitchuck and Tim's suits
on it. And so I think he's gonna probably I
think if you had to over under, he's probably gonna
get pretty close at the very least to the output
he had last year. And I'd be if I had

(26:29):
to bet, I think he'd go over what he had
last year in terms of points, just with a subtle partner.
It's gonna be interesting who he plays with next year,
but overall, I think he won't have an anchor on
his right side.

Speaker 4 (26:40):
He's gonna be a year older.

Speaker 5 (26:41):
He's he's a hockey juggernaut, like all he does is eats,
breathe sleeps hockey. And I think those guys are the
guys you want to bet on, especially when they're young,
and you can just see the progression every year. Yeah,
I think he's gonna be I'd be shocked if he's
not top five and Norris voting next year. And I
think he's going to be that sixty seventy point guy.

(27:03):
He's never going to be Lane Hudson or Cale mccarr
or Quinn Hughes. But for me, he's almost of the
mold of a bit of a Victor Headman type right
where he's in the right areas all the time. He's
good offensively, gets you that sixty seventy points every year,
and just super consistent player. I'm not saying he's going
to be as good as Victor Hedman, but that type

(27:25):
of player in terms of a number one defenseman.

Speaker 3 (27:29):
Fans of Thomas Shabbat must be dejected to hear those
types of things because that used to be. Thomas Shabbat
in some ways got our career high end blocks last
year in at least one hundred and forty five, as
well as actually, if you missed it, his best scoring
other than that first remarkable post Eric Carlson debut season
twenty three. Twenty four was the year that Shabat fell

(27:50):
off from being the most common power play quarterback on
the team to power play two with Jacob Chickerun in town,
and now Sanderson definitely has surpassed him or the power
play time. Maybe the best news for Shabbat last year
is the number of games played. After missing twenty three,
fourteen and thirty one games in the prior three years,
he was on the ice for eighty games last year

(28:12):
and again forty five points. So I don't know what.
He certainly signed for eight million dollars for a few
more years, so he's only twenty eight. What is Thomas
Shabbot going to be on this team? What's he gonna do?

Speaker 5 (28:25):
Alex, Yeah, I think I hope and I do think
that he's in a good position to replicate that.

Speaker 4 (28:32):
I think he's.

Speaker 5 (28:33):
Probably he's one of those defensemen where it's, oh, he's
really good, but I don't know if he can be
the best defenseman on a team, and I don't think
he can be leading your number one power play units.
He's an unbelievable skater, really good touch, great first pass.
He still has his defensive wards in his own end
for sure, but he definitely got better at that. But

(28:54):
I think with the Senators he's in the perfect position
where he doesn't have to take all the hard Mac
gets much more favorable up against second and third lines
where he can I don't like him going up against McKinnon,
but I like him going up against other guys. I
think the team itself will have more possession this year.
I think they'll have the puck more. I think they'll

(29:15):
be creating more, especially at five on five, than they
did last year, and I think that will benefit Shabbot,
because if you're not running the first power play unit,
how are you gonna get your points? It's because your
team's good at five on five. And I do expect
the Senators like there's no way they're going to be
thirtieth and five on five goals next year. I just
find that really hard to believe.

Speaker 4 (29:34):
So all in all, I.

Speaker 5 (29:35):
Think he's in that forty five to fifty point range,
and I think he's still a really good player. But
with the arrival of Jake Sanderson as the bonifid number
one defenseman, I wouldn't bet on Shabbat's power play minutes
going up or anything like that. But he'll still be
on the unit too, I think, and if this team

(29:57):
scores more at even strength, he'll be benefiting from that. So
I think there's a chance that he actually gets more
points next year if the team offensively improves, because he's
going to be a huge catalyst of it.

Speaker 3 (30:09):
So obviously hoping for a regression on five, which is
good for another defenseman on this team, just generally because
Sanderson's going to get the points that they're on the
power play. Shabbat and Sanderson certainly are the headliner defenseman
on this team and the team is trying to focus
on a little bit more defense. But of the other
defenseman on the team, who do you think could be
the highest score anybody be able to get, say to

(30:30):
forty points or am I just dreaming at this point, Alix.

Speaker 4 (30:33):
I don't know if you're dreaming.

Speaker 5 (30:34):
I think Jordan Spence is the one guy that is
going to be super I'm really curious. I actually there
was some people on sense Twitter kind of talking about
like where should Spence play, And I was thinking, like,
I don't know. I would put him with Sanderson, Like
obviously you have the tougher minutes, but you're insulated by
Sanderson and if you have another puck mover on the
right side, you're just gonna have the puck the whole time,

(30:56):
and that is a form of defense, right. And then
you put hard and along with Thomas Shabat, who they've
played really well together in the past. I think he
has the offensive now to be a guy that if
this team is humming at five and five, and let's
say they regress maybe too much in a sense when
their shooting percentage goes way too high, where you're like,
I don't know if that's sustainable. I think he could

(31:18):
be a beneficiary of that, where I think he had
thirty points last year and he was basically playing a
lot of third pairing minutes on a good Kings team
that did score some goals but was primarily defensive. I
think if he gets he's probably going to be at
the very least in the top four to begin the season.
With Nick Jensen injured. Maybe at the end of the
season he goes down. But who knows the status of

(31:40):
Nick Jensen with his hip surgery and how he's feeling,
and he's a year old or everything. I think there's
a world where he gets to forty points. Do I
think it's the likeliest. No, But I don't think it's outlandish.
I think if this team is top eight seven in
that vicinity in terms of goal production, be surprised if Spence,

(32:01):
a really mobile, quick defenseman, gets a bunch of apples
and is helping the team generate a lot of offense
from the right side, which I know the Senators for
a fact, wanted to improve upon this summer. They did,
and they feel like that's an area they really want
to improve upon in terms of generating offense, where they
felt last year it was a bit of a dead zone.

Speaker 4 (32:20):
I think that's all the contingency plans that.

Speaker 5 (32:23):
Could lay waste for Jordan Spence to maybe get in
that forty point range.

Speaker 2 (32:28):
All right, let's go over to the goalies, and the
Senators were ranked fourteenth and expected goals against for sixty
but conceded the thirteenth ranked actual goals. Of course, a
big part of this equation was Anton Forsberg, who's no
longer there, but he was able to at least that
five on five provide some pretty reasonable goal save above expected.
But we're focused on a Linus Olmark and Marilyn and

(32:51):
who are going to be there this upcoming season. And
Olmark for his part, he played just forty four games
and was slightly popped his goals save above expected. He
was able to have a neutral effect on the expect
on the goals say percentage that was given to him
the defense that was given to him, which I think
you could see as a negative. Maybe he couldn't do
better than that, but at least he was able to

(33:13):
hold steady and not be worse than the protection that
was given to him, So I think that could be
a win. He's entering the second year of his a
point to twenty five million dollars deal, and I think
so far the results have been pretty good. They've been
the competitive team with him back there, and that's what
they wanted. I think the big question mark for me
is they did Fordsburg is gone that it doesn't look
like they're bringing any other options that so Marilina is

(33:34):
going to be the backup and in his twelve games
he played, he looked pretty good at times, but he
is also still a bit of a younger goalie, and
so what does that look like when he takes on
more of a role, because I imagine if he's the backup,
he's going to play more than twelve games. So, Alex,
what do you think we can expect from these sense
goalies this upcoming year? Do you think they can continue
to provide the protection and the saves that are needed

(33:57):
for them to be a playoff team again?

Speaker 5 (34:00):
Yeah, I think you hit it. You said it right
with all Mark last year. He made the say like
he wasn't spectacular. He had every goaltender will play forty
to fifty games, they're going to have a great game
or they have a thirty eight save shutout. But he
wasn't unbelievable. But he did the job right. And that's
what in Ottawa just for so long it wasn't just

(34:20):
not great goaltending, it was bad goaltending that was leading
them to lose.

Speaker 4 (34:24):
And he came in.

Speaker 5 (34:24):
He stabilized the ship and I expect that to be
the same for him. I do wonder though, like I
wouldn't have said his playoffs was that good. He hasn't
played very well in the playoffs in the past. I
wouldn't say that the reason why the Senators lost this
series against Toronto was all because of all Mark, But
if all Mark was fifteen to twenty percent better, they
might have won that series. Honestly, just with the way

(34:47):
Anthony Stollers outdueled him to begin that series, I expect
him to be good in that nine oh five to
nine fifteen range. I still think the Senators with Sanderson
back there, just being such a good player to go
up against every team's best players, I think they're going
to be still a really good defensive team. So I
don't think they'll have slippage in that way where all

(35:09):
of a sudden they're expected goals against his like twenty fourth.
I still expect them to be in that thirteen to
eight range, so I think they're not going to give
up a ton of high quality chances. I think all
Mark's really gonna be fine. He might have his bad
game here or there, but I think he'll still be
a serviceable NHL goaltender. I think Mariline, it's really interesting

(35:31):
in audible. Obviously, when a guy plays twelve games. Only
people in that market are typically going to see him.
But he's been excellent Bellville the past couple of years,
the Senator's farm team. He's only I think twenty two,
but like I've interviewed him a couple of times, very steady,
like everything you want in a goalie, like quiet, calm, confident,

(35:52):
and I think that's a huge part of how goaltenders
play is between the ears, and he's had sustained success
everywhere he's been the last two or three years.

Speaker 4 (36:01):
Obviously, as you mentioned, if he's.

Speaker 5 (36:03):
Never been a backup, he hasn't played thirty games in
the NHL, maybe more because all Marks have only played
forty nine games. That's the most he's ever played in
the season. So you're basically putting him in a tandem.
So it is a big bet. It's one I would
have made, and I think the Senators were right to make.
He had I think three shutouts in his twelve games
last year with Ottawa and he was really good. It

(36:23):
wasn't like he was making twelve save shutouts. He was
really good in those games. I expect him to be
really good and for me, like my kind of hot
like Steve Nay Smith hot take in maybe a year
or two from now is I think Marilina might be
the starter. Maybe not this playoff time, but maybe in
two years. I think everything I've seen from him, watching him,
what you hear about from scouts, everything is that he

(36:46):
could be the real deal. And I'm a bit lower
on all Mark than maybe people in Ottawa are, and
I think that could be something that comes into the equation.
But then again, he's twenty two. He's gonna play the
most amount of NHL games ever. So it is a bet,
but it's one that I think is worth it, and
I think there if you're a fantasy owner, he might

(37:07):
not be a bad guy to pick up because he's
gonna play a lot of games. Like in Ottawa, like
with Almark, He's basically gonna play a tandem type of style,
and so Mariline's gonna play a fair bit of games.
Just watch out for him because everything seems to suggest
he's a pretty good goaltender.

Speaker 3 (37:23):
Bamboozled, what else would Steven A. Smith say? We have
been to see will be the goalie of this team.
I think you should shoot for it. Man. We need
as much as Steven A. Smith is a thing. We
need a good hockey stephen A. I think that we
need that, Alex, and I'm nominating you, man.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
I must have been the few hockey games that I've watched,
I've enjoyed it.

Speaker 5 (37:45):
Hockey player is a tough as hell.

Speaker 4 (37:47):
It's definitely a tough sport.

Speaker 6 (37:49):
Y'all get my y'all, get my props just for knowing
how to skate.

Speaker 5 (37:53):
I feel like I feel like biz biz Nasty does
a decent job. It's a bit different. He's not like
always taking it, but he has that. He has the
energy and the vibes of a steven A just another form.

Speaker 3 (38:04):
All right, all right, we'll deal with We'll deal with
the old Paul the Senate right now, but I would
rather deal with you, frankly, Alex and all your great content.
So why don't you tell people how they should go
about finding it?

Speaker 5 (38:17):
Yeah, I'm at sports. I cover the Sins. Obviously, it's summertime,
so I don't really have anything on the go until
see me in September. But I'll be covering them, written
for them, maybe doing some stuff on TV here and there.
I have something else cooking up in the Sens world
that I can't share. Right now, But so stay tuned
if you're interested in my content and you're a Sins
fan or just interested in the sense.

Speaker 4 (38:37):
In any way.

Speaker 5 (38:38):
But yeah, you can follow me at Twitter just Alex
Adams BTP BTP, just because there's so many Alex Adams
out there it's hard to differentiate yourself. That's my Twitter handle,
But yeah, just follow me if you like my work.

Speaker 4 (38:51):
Reach out.

Speaker 5 (38:52):
I always love when people say nice things. It always
motivates you to get better. And thanks guys for having
me on. And hopefully we can do this later this
season and maybe in the playoffs when the Senators are
going deep. That'd be fun for me personally. That's it's
always fun when Adowa is. I'm not cheering for them,
but it is much more fun than watching a team

(39:13):
waste away and to like mediocrity. It's much harder to
go to the rink and think of interesting stories.

Speaker 3 (39:18):
Yeah, so you're saying, if the Sins get to the
Cup finals, you'll come on or do an appearance during
that time.

Speaker 4 (39:26):
You know what, I will.

Speaker 3 (39:27):
You will be very busy.

Speaker 5 (39:29):
I will be very busy, but I will give you
twenty minutes.

Speaker 4 (39:33):
I will give you that for sure, all right, I'm
not walking.

Speaker 3 (39:36):
Let's yeah, let's the sense. I'll tell you what. The
sins are extremely fun to follow right now, so I
know people will want to follow your material. Thank you
so much for coming on today, Alex, and good luck
covering this team next year.

Speaker 4 (39:48):
Thanks so much, guys, I always appreciate it.

Speaker 3 (39:57):
We'll send that's good fire. Oh my goodness, long goal
with a chat wet Cram. Now it's your weekly goalie
talk with Kat Silverman, Kat's Instincts.

Speaker 2 (40:16):
Time once again for Kat's Instincts with Kat Silverman at
Engel Mad. We're talking senator's goalies and we have a
couple of interesting ones here. Both these guys have seen
some time in the NHL, and we're gonna start with
Levi Marilinen. He's sixty six and eighty five pounds. Drafted
back in twenty twenty in the third round. He actually
appeared in twelve NHL games this season, or sorry, two

(40:37):
in twenty twenty two, twenty three, and then twelve last
season with a little break in between, which was confusing.
I think also interesting that we heard the general manager
come out and say that he's basically going to be
the backup this season, and so he looks like he
will be in the NHL, so of course we're really
interested now in what we can expect from him. His
numbers were he was there interesting in Ottawa. According to

(41:01):
Evolving Hockey, he had some of the best expected save
percentage numbers and he he was average with that. He
did an outperform it, but he also didn't underperform at
which is nice. He did outperform his expected save percentage
on the power on the penalty kill though, which was
way way lower. He was offered not very good protection
and he outperformed that, so that's great. Looking at the

(41:23):
Hockey prospecting model, mari Linen was hovering in the not
very likely to make it until last season when those
strong NHL numbers bumped him up to sixty four percent.
And so now he's got some decent comps, guys like
Carl vo Melcha and Jonathan Bernier. So what do your
instincts tell us about Marilin and cat because it seems

(41:43):
like he's going to be available and see at least
some playing time this season.

Speaker 6 (41:48):
I think for starters. The Jonathan Bernier comp is delightful
to me. That's a name that I don't think he's
come up as a camp for us among any of
the team and prospects that we've looked at so far.
And I hold a very soft spot in my heart
for Jonathan Burnier. I think he deserved better, but now
I really enjoy leaving Marilyne and he's one of the

(42:10):
Finnish goaltenders that I think played with a lot of
control in the juniors and then in the minors. And
really the only reason to me that he didn't get
talked about more his draft year is because he was
in a logjam situation for the team that he was
playing for. I believe he was playing in the Carpot system,

(42:31):
which as we know, tends to have kind of a
wealth of young goaltenders who go through their system at
the J twenty and then to their minor system, and
then sometimes they have to loan them out to other teams,
and I believe that's what happened at one point, was
that he even while he was with Carpot altogether, he
was just getting kept at the junior level because there

(42:53):
was really no spot for him in either mestics or
at the legal level.

Speaker 7 (42:58):
And it looks like he did.

Speaker 6 (43:00):
He ended up moving over to North America played for
a season with the Kingston front Acts, which went okay,
but he got his taste of playing in North America,
got to go back and play pros for a full
season with Carpot after that, which I think is genius.
And then I appreciate wholeheartedly that the Autawa Senators had

(43:23):
him play two games. He looked like he was trying
to do too much during those games, which at that
point the Autawa Senators needed someone who could do everything,
and he was a prospect, So I get that it
didn't go super well, and I appreciate that they saw
those two games and then they let him develop and

(43:44):
they didn't have him. They didn't force him through trial
by fire to stay with their very clearly rebuilding club,
and then they brought him up when he was ready,
And I think that's great and it looks good. It
looks like he's more confident. It looks like his movement
has an and stuffered any setbacks.

Speaker 7 (44:02):
When it comes to his control.

Speaker 6 (44:03):
He tracks really well, he follows his rebounds really well,
he communicates with his defense really well from what we
can see, and I think that's.

Speaker 7 (44:12):
What Ottawa needs. So it's unsurprising that he's going to
be their backup.

Speaker 6 (44:16):
I think if he does well this year, I don't
want to get too confident because I have made wrong
predictions before, so I don't want anyone to get mad
at me.

Speaker 7 (44:30):
But I think he could be their starter within a year.

Speaker 4 (44:35):
Oh that's pretty exciting.

Speaker 2 (44:36):
Yeah, they definitely have a strong option there in Omark,
but it's certainly nice to look ahead and see what
they have coming for them after that. Almark is making
a pretty penny until the twenty nine season, but you
never know what guess he is.

Speaker 6 (44:51):
I think he could make a good swim in Omark
situation though, and I say.

Speaker 7 (44:57):
That for the listeners.

Speaker 6 (44:59):
Full disclosure, I did grow up a Bruins fan, so
it hurts me very dearly to say that. But I
think that a Mariline and Olmark tandem in the Olmark
Swiman model is their best chance of success, and I
think that could make them a legitimate threat. And I
think it's probably about a year away from being able

(45:22):
to use him like that, But if the team's defense
ends up looking consistent this year, we could see it
this season where we get that essentially thirty eight forty
six ish game split. I forget just how many games
there will be next year. But I think we could

(45:43):
see it where we're getting that fifty five forty five
split and then move to a.

Speaker 7 (45:50):
Fifty to fifty that.

Speaker 6 (45:54):
Follows the flow of the team's schedule and the injury
availability too.

Speaker 7 (46:00):
Once we move beyond this year, we got to.

Speaker 2 (46:04):
See how good he is with his goalie hugs. It's
got to get ready for that. Oh man, that's great
stuff on Mariline. And let's talk a little bit about
Matt Soguard, the Great Dane sixty seven hundred and ninety
eight pounds back drafted back in twenty nineteen. He injury
limited him to just ten games this year, two in
the NHL, eight in the AHL, and the NHL game

(46:26):
didn't go particularly well. That was disappointing. I think he
was really looking forward to showing that he could hang
because his NHL experienced the previous season didn't go so well.
But then he seemed to figure it out in the AHL,
and so it was I think he was really hoping
to re establish himself as a legitimate NHL caliber goalie
and it just didn't happen. Kat, What do your instincts

(46:47):
tell us now about so guard.

Speaker 6 (46:50):
It's really tough because when he got drafted, I was
nervous because I don't love his style of play and
I don't like being proven right by a kid not
being able to succeed. But as each successive season goes by,

(47:11):
he hasn't been taking the overactivity out of his game and.

Speaker 7 (47:17):
He has to do that.

Speaker 6 (47:19):
Has really good agility and he's really flexible. I think
he has a path to being a really strong NHL
goaltender because he moves so quickly and because he moves
so well and he's able to recover when he does.

Speaker 7 (47:35):
Over extent himself a little bit too much.

Speaker 6 (47:38):
But he reminds me of the way that Lauren Bresois
played when he first came into the league and before
he that's one of the goaltenders who had ended up
working with Adam Francilia for.

Speaker 7 (47:48):
A while and really did a lot of.

Speaker 6 (47:51):
Physical conditioning to take almost a hypermobility in his game
and really long limbs that we're doing too much in
reading almost too many openings, and tightened it back up
and made it so that he wasn't moving so much
that he was creating just giant holes in the net.

Speaker 7 (48:08):
And that is something that I still see from so.

Speaker 6 (48:10):
Guard and I think in theory he could end up
being a goaltender who is able to.

Speaker 7 (48:18):
Tighten things up, especially because he does move so well.

Speaker 6 (48:21):
But the way he moves right now, he does open
up holes for himself and he'll almost go down into
butterfly when he should continue standing.

Speaker 7 (48:32):
He'll come flying out of his net.

Speaker 6 (48:34):
He likes to overlap his lateral posts instead of just
staying a little bit tighter. And I think the best
example is I was going through a bunch of his
tape and I saw.

Speaker 7 (48:48):
He really likes to do a good windmill save and.

Speaker 6 (48:53):
It doesn't always make sense where it is, and then
he'll allow a rebound and he will be flat on
his back. And that's something that I don't think, especially
with guys like Mariline and in the Senator's system, they
don't need someone they don't need him to be doing
all that.

Speaker 7 (49:09):
So I don't know.

Speaker 6 (49:11):
I think he could get there maybe, but the farther
we get from his draft year, the less likely it is.
To me.

Speaker 2 (49:19):
Yeah, we'll see if all that theory can become reality.
Thanks for giving us your instincts on the Ottawa Senator's.

Speaker 3 (49:27):
Goalies of course will be back right after this dig

(49:48):
the dionasy did Nottawa Senators. Addition, Victor, things aren't great.
Things are a little bleak here in Ottawa because they've
got the number thirty system. Hey, things are going well
the pro level. They have brought a lot of talent
to bear, but not much left in the cupboard. But
it does start with a no brainer. And who is that?

Speaker 2 (50:09):
Yes, our no brainer is carter Yakhamchuck. We might just
call this prospect system the Carter Yakham Chucks because yeah,
it's pretty bleak after this. But he's awesome. Man, that's great.
So you got that going for you? He is. He
was the twenty four twenty twenty four to seventh overall
pick six two hundred seven pounds. He is a right

(50:32):
shot d which is part of the reason he went
a little earlier than maybe some of the other guys.
His production definitely took a hit last season for the
Calgary Hitman. The team not quite as good as they
were in the previous season, but he still put up
some decent numbers and overall was definitely one of the
more important players on that team. In the Mitch Brown

(50:54):
tracking data, you can see that his offense was ninety
eight percent tile, transition eighty sixty eight per centile, and
defense eighty first percentile. He shoots a lot for a defenseman.
That's something that you're going to love. He also scores
a lot of goals for a defenseman, which isn't always
super translatable, but his expected primary systs and slot passes
and the other creativity that you'd like to see for

(51:15):
defenseman is also there. So he has certainly a lot
of upside. He definitely struggles sometimes with some of his retrievals,
with some of his entry prevention, with some of his
controlled exits, So there's definitely some concerns there in terms
of his ability to handle some of the pressure at
the NHL level. Looking at the Fantasy Hockey Life Player card,
I have him at six point seventy five, definitely one

(51:36):
of the lower ones in terms of the twenty twenty
four defenseman. I remember saying that at the time I
still am a little not sure about his ability to
translate all this, but one thing is for sure. He
shoots a lot. His shots were one hundred percent tile
for the WHL. His hits were seventy percent tile, his
blocks were twenty percentile, So overall pretty solid bashed potential

(51:59):
for car Yakamchuck. Let's see whatever kind of potential he
has by listening to our Fatil scout Jesse.

Speaker 3 (52:08):
Fahl scout Tim has this to say about Yakam Chuck.
Smooth long strides provide deceptive speed when moving forward. He
has room to improve lateral movement and backward skating. A
creative passer and deceptive uses his size very well when
handling the puck. Good hands in tight shooting NHL ready

(52:28):
a bomb from the point wrist and snapshots deceptive and strong.
I can the NHL rank King Mason Black himself put
out the poll Carter Yakamchuck versus Seamus Casey, and Carter
Yakimchuk wins handily seventy to thirty percent victor. Is that
and accurate ranking of these two?

Speaker 6 (52:50):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (52:50):
I think so. There's a lot of upside for Yakimchuk.
There's the bash there, which Casey doesn't really do as
much of. I know that people are down on Casey,
and I have my concerns. I mean, he's he'd had
some NHL games this season, but then went to the
AHL and was plus minus. I think that there's definitely
a lot of offense there. So you like to see

(53:10):
that he is a little bit of a smaller guy,
and so you wonder it's all situations. What's he gonna do?
How is he not redundant from Luke Hughes or Dougie Hamilton.
So there's some concerns there about Casey, but I could see,
I could see a world where he's relevant. But I
definitely think that there's a lot more upside with the Yakimchuck.
They are more invested in him. Like, as we said

(53:31):
at the top, who else is in this pool that's
going to compete with him? So I would definitely want Yakamchuck.
Between the two, it's not particularly close if you look
at the hockey prospect in between the two. Yakamchuk did
decrease his star potential a little bit from fifty three
to forty six percent, which is where Seamus Casey has
lived the last couple of seasons at forty percent. The
star NHL are potential is pretty much the same between

(53:52):
the two. So I mentioned I have your Yakimchuk at
six point seven five, I had Seamus Casey at at
six point sixty seven. So a little bit lower percentage.
I think the upside with Yakimchuk is a little bit
higher though. Just looking at some other comps for him,
there's some interesting players that he might look a little
bit like. Evan Bouchard is one. A lot of people
compared him Tevin Bouchard when he was coming up. I

(54:13):
think I might even have done that. Some other guys
that he looks are like cam Yorke, which you know,
not physically but point production mize they may end up
being like that. We'll have to wait and see, which
would be disappointing for Yakimchuck. The top down Hockey model
has Yakimchuck an eighteen percent chance of being a star
and eighty six percent chance of being in NHL or
so a little bit solid there still, and so that's

(54:35):
good to see. And that's it for Yakimchuk.

Speaker 3 (54:38):
Jesse Victor. The system gets rough from here. But when
in doubt, give yourself a Wisconsin Badger as your need
to know prospect. Who is it, That's.

Speaker 2 (54:49):
Right, it's Logan Hensler twenty twenty five, first round pick,
twenty third Overall. We know that this was not the
best year for the defense in the NHL Draft, but
he still was one of the more interesting ones. He
has a really late birthdate, and so that's often interesting

(55:10):
to think about too. That was part of the reason
that allowed him to play at the University of Wisconsin
this year. He was at the USNTDP last year, but
because it was October birthday, he went to the NCAA route,
which was probably mute at some of his production. He
only had twelve points in thirty two games. If he
was at the NTDP, I'm sure he would have scored
a lot more, or if he was in the USHL,

(55:31):
So that's something to think about. He also was on
that World Junior Championship team that won goal for USA.
He played a little bit more of a limited role
and he certainly didn't have a lot of offense that
all went to Cole Hudson. I think that's the question
is does he have some untapped offense. A lot of
people are suggesting that he might, and so wait and
see what happens with that. He's a good speculative pick,
thinking that might turn around for him. If you look

(55:53):
at his tracking data for Logan Hensler, the offense is
seventy fourth percentile transition eighty fifth percentile on the fence
eighty fifth percentile, and that is where he tends to
be a little bit stronger in the defensive game, and
the transition question is really is there more offense there?
His expected goals and shots were well below average at
University of Wisconsin for the NSAA, but the expected primary assist,

(56:16):
slot passes, and transition game was excellent. He also was
really good at getting placed in the middle and creating
advantages and having good expected goals, so all that was
really solid for Logan Hensler. Looking up the Fantasy Hockey
Life Player card, I have him at a six point
one point five, so a little bit lower percentage, a
little bit speculation here, maybe he can improve that. His

(56:36):
shots were only eightyh percentile in this metric, fiftieth percentile
for hits and sixtieth for block so he'll probably be
just a little bit above average for bash. But Logan
Hensler in general is probably not going to be the
biggest bash guy. But let's hear a little bit more
about Hensler from our FHL scout, Jesse.

Speaker 3 (56:55):
FHL lead scout Tony has this to say of Logan Hensler.
Great skater, good on the edges, very positive passer, makes
excellent passes out of the defensive zone and assists the
teammates in the offensive zone. The shooting is very good,
good shot, although Time seems to be hesitant to shoot.
Sometimes you can't get his shot through. Seemed to score

(57:16):
the closer he got to the net for the ike.
Good vision in anticipation. One of his goals is here
he faked an opponent out of his his jockstrap. Tony
says in one game he watched defense good, excellent with
his stickwork. Will use his body when necessary, but maybe
not enough just yet. The best asset the skating. The

(57:39):
biggest concerns lack of physical play and lack of confidence.
Top tier outcome Tier two. Logan could be Tier two
or higher if he unlocks everything more of a two
way player now with an infusion of confidence, he could
go higher. Tony sees him playing in most situations, but
probably power play two or spotty power play time and

(58:00):
the median outcome Tier three. Solid two way player, right
handed defenseman, great skater in some power play time. Eventually
the stylistic comparable Charlie McAvoy. If Logan can gain confidence,
get more shots through and bring up the physicality. He
could be an excellent player and the NHL ranking Mason
Black put out the comparison, put out the polls he

(58:23):
always does. Soiler Minio versus Logan, Hensler and Hensler in
a rout seventy five to twenty five percent victor. Is
that an accurate comp of the two?

Speaker 2 (58:36):
Yeah, I think so.

Speaker 4 (58:37):
Mineo.

Speaker 2 (58:38):
He's definitely a more two way guy like Hensler is.
He was in the WHL. He should be with Abbasford
Canucks next season. He did go travel with them on
their way to the championship, but he didn't get into
any games so far, and he did play for Canada
the U twenty World Juniors. He didn't have as big
of a role. He only played in three games. I
think both these guys have limited off But because Hensler

(59:01):
is a little bit earlier in the funnel, I would
take him because we don't know. I feel like Mineo
has shown us a little bit more of what he is.
He was drafted back in twenty twenty three, so we've
seen a little bit more of him developer lack of
development in terms of the offensive acumen. He did score
twenty six points in thirty one games for the Calgary Hitman,

(59:21):
but that's your Draft plus two seasons, so you expect
a little bit more offense there. So yeah, I'm definitely
taking Hensler. But this is speculation. It's no, there's not
like a huge upside for him. Looking at the hockey prospecting,
Hensler has eight percent chance of being a star sire
mineow just three percent, so very low. In general, there
aren't a whole lot of great comps for Logan Hensler.

(59:43):
I mean, he has some good comps, but these are
guys who absolutely exploded in their DREE plus one and
two seasons, So that would be Brenton Burns, Thomas Shabat,
Joanie picking In La Frady. Does he really compare to
those guys Kevin Shattenkirk the equivalency say, would say yes,
But is he going to that huge next step? That's
really the question. I'm not so sure that I believe that,

(01:00:03):
but there's certainly a potential for that. Looking at the
top down hockey model through Jfresh, one percent chance of
being a star, sixteen percent chance of being an NHL AER.
That's the pessimism we've known to grow and love from
our friend over at Jfresh. I think that the NHLer
probability is way higher than that. I'm not sure that
the star potential is, but that's where we're at with

(01:00:25):
Logan Hensler and Hey, at least they got another decent
prospect for us to talk about Jesse, because it was
gonna be a lot of just Karteri, Yakubtruk the whole time.
But that's all we're gonna do for the Ottawa Centers.
We're gonna we're not gonna torture ourselves by talking about
any of the other guys we're never going to play
in the NHL. If you're a patron, you can listen
to my top ten prospect rees cap per team, which

(01:00:47):
probably will be difficult for the Centaters, but we'll throw
a couple other names in there. And if you're interested
in scouting with us, shoot me a DM on Twitter, Discord,
or email us.

Speaker 3 (01:00:56):
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(01:01:41):
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(01:02:25):
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(01:02:46):
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(01:03:06):
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