5 Ranked Games Highlighted Week 11 + Week 12 Playoff Implications

On this episode, Sam and Zach discuss:
-3 Game Balls and a Flag from Week 11
-USD, Mercer, Lamar, YSU, and NDSU all pick up wins in ranked matchups
-Playoff scenarios for teams and conferences, and how some Week 12 games impact the postseason picture
-Notable games include No. 14 Illinois State at No. 16 South Dakota State, No. 19 Lamar at No. 15 Stephen F. Austin, No. 17 South Dakota at No. 21 Southern Illinois, No. 9 UC Davis at No. 3 Montana State, and No. 11 Rhode Island at Maine
The podcast is presented by HERO Sports and BetMGM. Visit HERO Sports for FCS coverage and BetMGM for online betting odds.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:18):
All right, Welcome in FCS Tackle Football Fans do another
episode of the FCS Football Todd Podcast, presented by hero
Sports and BEDMGM. I'm your host, Sam Herder of hero Sports,
and I'm joined by my co host, Zach mckinnal of
FCS Football Central. In the blue Bloods. We had a
loaded week eleven slate with five ranked matchups. We also

(00:40):
have four more ranked matchups coming up this weekend, and
so we're gonna do our usual routine of three game
balls and a flag from this last weekend, also touch
on a few other results that maybe didn't make that segment.
Then we'll dive into some playoff scenarios with some of
these big games coming up this weekend. But first off, Zach,
are you doing. How was your weekend? Man?

Speaker 2 (01:02):
It was good, Listen.

Speaker 3 (01:04):
It was one of those weird weekends, you know how
it is in the FCS, where it felt like every
game kicked off with like within the same two hour window.
So busy weekend trying to catch all the games and
getting on the information we need. But man, this is
the best time of the year. Man, I can't believe
we only have two weeks left. I can't believe we're
already here, but this is the best time of the
year in FCS football.

Speaker 1 (01:24):
Yeah, it was. It was a crazy weekend and two
of the craziest results that will touch on all happened
at the same time. And that was Western Carolina missing
its game winning field goal but fans still storming the field.
And then you also had Eastern Washington nearly knockoff Montana
and was in scoring position, but then they fumbled trying
to trying to spike the ball. And you know, I

(01:46):
had multiple games on and both of them remuted, and
so I was like they were both happened at the
exact same time. I was so confused of what happened.
Of you saw like Western Carolina fans celebrating, but then
you saw the final score on the screen, and he
also saw that, oh, you know Montana one. I thought
Eastern Washington just had it in scoring position. So, yeah,
we will touch on all these crazy results. We'll start

(02:08):
as we usually do, with our three game balls in
a flag segment. Zach will hand it off to you
for your first game ball.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
Yeah, a team that I think me and you have
both been really skeptical about throughout the season. I'm Gould
give my first game ball to Lamar. They get a
big ranked win over Southeastern Louisiana, who I think, me, you,
and just about every other analyst in the FCS predicted
Southeastern to win this game and do it convincingly. You

(02:36):
look at how good Southeastern has been offensively many This
Lamar defense was outstanding this weekend, and even though offensively
they still have their woes, they continue to find ways
to win games, man, and it has to count for something.
Andrew Huff had a huge game defensively, mar Mare Evans
with a big interceptions, Ronnie Hammrick had a really big game,

(02:57):
Christian Pugh doing his thing as always at safety. But
you look at how what they did and they held
Southeast in Louisiana is less than three hundred yards of
total offense. That was one of the top offenses in
the country, one for eleven. On third down, they were
more efficient seven to seventeen. They dominated the time of possession.
When they got into the red zone, they made the
most of it. And this defense has just been so good.

(03:19):
And I think you got to give Pete Rosamondo in
this staff so much credit. It feels like Lamar has
been building to this sound and even though they've had injuries,
they've had quarterback issues, the offense hasn't maybe necessarily lived
up to the hype. They continue to find ways to
win games. And now they got to win over South Dakota.
They have a win over Southeast in Louisiana. That's two

(03:40):
ranked wins on the resume. They are in perfect position
and have set themselves up not only to get the
auto bid if they win this weekend, but even if
they falter down the stretch, they should be in a
really good position to get into the playoffs. And that
coming from where this program started when Rosamondo got there,
to be in the playoffs is an absolute shot to
a lot of FCS fans where this program was way

(04:02):
way down and he's built it up into a playoff contender.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
Yeah, it's been a great turnaround for that program. And
you know, just when a lot of us counted them out,
they pull off this ranked win and yeah, on paper,
you felt, I don't know how Lamar is gonna score
enough points to beat Southeastern Louisiana in their offense that
have been playing it at a very high level. But yeah,
to only allow twelve points, that's going to give your offense,

(04:27):
just enough wiggle room there to eke out a win.
My first game ball, I'm going to give it to
South Dakota, another team that has really impressed as far
as you know, us in the media maybe counting them out.
And you look just a few weeks ago for the
Yoats after a lost to Illinois State, and you saw
the remaining games that they had with multiple ranked opponents,

(04:49):
and you just, Okay, it's really hard to see USD
making the playoffs. But now back to back ranked wins
over top ten opponents at the time over und then
this weekend beating the rival South Kota States by a touchdown,
just a huge win for the Yoats, who improved a
seven and four overall seven and three versus the FCS.

(05:10):
Like I said, second straight ranked win to put themselves
in playoff position, and they have just one more game
this season. They have a week thirteen by and they
go to ranked Southern Illinois this weekend in a massive game.
I don't know if it's necessarily a must win for
South Dakota. I feel like they could maybe lose this
game and have done enough to get into the playoffs.

(05:31):
I do feel like it probably is a must win
for Southern Illinois. But we can touch on that. On
that later. South Dakota, I mean LJ. Phillips, I mean,
what a revelation for them. We've obviously talked a lot
about the guys that South Kota State has been missing,
but maybe we forget that. Charles Pierre Junior was viewed
as the best running back coming into this season, maybe

(05:51):
one A, one B with Eli Gillman. He's been out
for quite a while now and l J. Phillips Junior
has stepped up in such a major way. And on
Saturday he rushes four one hundred and sixty eight yards,
a couple of touchdowns, averages six point two yards per carry.
Ainan Bauman, you know, was solid, not spectacular, but was
solid enough and made some big throws when they really
needed him to. Then Dewan Lewis I really we just

(06:13):
touched on Lamar. I really liked watching him play out
Lamar and then for him to transfer to South Dakota,
I thought that was one of the better FCS two
FCS transfers this offseason. He had a huge game for
the it's five tackles, interception, pass breakup as well. On
the SDSU side, of things. I mean, they're down to
their number three quarterback in this game and along with
several several other key injuries, and they need to turn

(06:35):
things around pretty quickly here because that's this is now
three straight losses after a seven and oh starts, and
the Jacks still have two ranked opponents still to come.
So this this season can go a lot of different
ways for the jack Rabbits.

Speaker 3 (06:48):
Yeah, they are in a very very tough place right now,
I think in terms of just their playoff resume and
where they sit, especially if they drop these next two games.
But like you said with selfa just kind of build off.
What you said real quick is what a turnaround for them, man,
because this season could have really got out a hand
for them, and these past two weeks where must win

(07:08):
games to kind of build their resume, and they delivered.
And maybe you know, we kind of talked about how
you wind he probably feels like they shot themselves in
the foot and that one. South Dakota continues to find
ways to win, and I've been really really impressed with
how Joe Hanson's kind of got that team lot back
in But moving on here, we talked about one of
the bigger games of the Week Mercer Western Carolina. My

(07:29):
second game ball goes to Mercer.

Speaker 2 (07:32):
What a win on the road.

Speaker 3 (07:33):
They clinch up the SoCon championship back to back now
under head coach Mike Jacobs, which is so impressive with
how the SoCon has been kind of known for chaos, right,
so we don't see a lot of repeat champions in
this conference. And Braden Akinston in particular, to go on
the road as a true freshman, knowing you have to
go toe to toe with arguably the best quarterback in

(07:55):
the country and to Ron Dickens and deliver in the
way he did four forty three, three touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (08:01):
CJ.

Speaker 3 (08:01):
Miller didn't have his best game on the ground, but
still had three rushing touchdowns and Mercer finds a way
to get the win. He miss field goal or not man.
That defense at the end of the game made a
handful of plays throughout the game to keep this one
close to The offense consistently delivered the pass rush got
after Tron Dickens, I want to say, had four or
five sacks. Andrew Zott continues to be outstanding. And how

(08:22):
about this Mercer team, sam Me, you and everyone else
in the country said all right, I'm out. After they
lost the Presbyterian and they said, we all said the
season was over, and here they are eight and one,
seven and zero win the SoCon, have a chance to
finish undefeated in the SoCon this year and potentially could
sneak in and get a top eight seed. What a

(08:43):
turnaround for this program. And Brandon Akison just go ahead
and hand him to Jerry Rice Award because he has
earned it.

Speaker 1 (08:50):
Yeah. I mean, the their Mercer's ability to reload has
been so impressive and something you don't always see a
lot from from many FCS programs. And Jacobs took over
last year, Mercer was coming off of the playoff appearances,
but they lost, you know, so much talent, you know,
their top two wide receivers from that team a couple
of years ago, some really good defensive players. And last

(09:10):
year they get even better with their quarterfinal appearance, and
then coming into this year, they also lost so much,
mostly on the defensive side of the football. But for
them to reload, and I mean, yeah, Atkinson has just
injected life into that offense. And I mean if you
could couple this offense with last year's defense, I mean,
this team would be so good, and even this year,

(09:31):
I still think their defense has been playing really well.
I know they allowed nearly fifty points to Western Carolina,
but you know Western's offense is just on another level
as well. But yeah, for Mercer to reload like they
have has been very, very impressive. My second game ball,
I'm going to give it to New Hampshire. How they
get a big ranked win. They beat number seven Mamoth
thirty four to thirteen. This keeps New Hampshire alive in

(09:55):
the playoff pitcher. They improved to six and four overall,
six and three versus the They have two more games
to come at Bryant and versus Maine. You like them
at Bryan's. That main game should be really really interesting.
That could possibly create some interesting scenarios in the CIA.
But if New Hampshire was able to get to eight
wins and win these next two I mean eight wins

(10:18):
big ranked victory over Momoth, they do have a head
to head loss over Dartmouth, who also could potentially finish
with eight wins, so that could definitely be a factor
that had to head result right there. Losing to Dartmouth,
that could be a factor on the playoff bubble. But
this was a huge win for New Hampshire to stay alive,
and I was super impressed with their defense. I know
Mammouth was still without their All American quarterback Derek Robertson,

(10:41):
but Mammoth has been able to get it done these
last couple of games without him due to Rodney Nelson
just absolutely going off the running back for Momoth. U
and H's defense held them in check eighty eight yards
on nineteen attempts, So their defense really stepped up and
Jordan McCallister, just a retro freshman defensive end three and
a half sacks, three forest fumbles. He had a heck

(11:02):
of a game for New Hampshire to get that win.
On the MoMA side of things, this is their first
FCS loss of the season. They still have a nice
ranked win over Villa Nova. If they can make it
through these next couple of games with wins, I still
think they could be in playoff position or in a
position to get a top eight playoff seed. It just
kind of depends how much quote unquote wiggle room the

(11:23):
playoff committee wants to give them for losing this game
without Derrick Robertson, and hopefully he can come back soon.
I don't know exactly what a status says. I just
know he's rehabbing to get back, but he was playing
at such a high level for mom. With that, hopefully
he can make it back here down the stretch.

Speaker 3 (11:40):
Yeah, that would be huge for them to get him back,
and I would imagine the.

Speaker 2 (11:43):
Committee would give him a little bit of leeway.

Speaker 3 (11:45):
Just I mean, they did for South Dakota State at
least right in the top ten this past week, so
I'll be curious, especially with it being their only loss,
and they strung together some wins with Alt Robertson, so
at least you know they can win without them, right,
They're not winless without without Robertson at quarterback.

Speaker 2 (12:00):
My last key.

Speaker 3 (12:00):
Ball, going back to the Missouri Valley, I'm going to
give it to Youngstown State.

Speaker 1 (12:05):
What are for?

Speaker 3 (12:06):
I mean, listen, what a how good has this team been?
I know the record at what six and three against
the FCS isn't outstanding, but you look back. I mean,
if they had they had that South Dakota State game early,
they gave it away and that's when South Dakota State
was still healthy. You lose on the road to und
They pushed North Dakota State last week and they rebound

(12:26):
this week a forty eight thirty eight victory over Southern Illinois,
another ranked win for them, and Bo Brungard continues to
just be spectacular. Man three forty five four touchdowns, one
oh four on the ground, two rushing touchdowns and Jade
and Gilbert in this game, man A his sixteen point
six yards per carry had had one hundred and fifty
yards on only nine attempts. And again we talked about

(12:49):
Max tom Zach on the outside for them, but Colin
Colin Flash Wilson has been a really big playmaker for
this team, and I've been really really impressed. Michael Wells
had a good game defensively, but I really like.

Speaker 2 (13:00):
Where Youngstown sits.

Speaker 3 (13:02):
If we're judging it's just based off the odd test
sam this team is. It's going, in my opinion, is
going to be a massive problem in the postseason for somebody,
because they're probably not going to get a top sixteen
seed and they're going to be a really really tough
matchup in that first round for somebody, and even going
on the road in the second round, depending on who
they get, could cause a lot of problems and maybe

(13:23):
even shake up the playoff race if they get hot
at the right time.

Speaker 1 (13:27):
Yeah, I'll be curious to see how Youngstown State stacks
up as far as potentially getting a top sixteen seed.
I mean, they will have most likely finished with eight wins,
but I mean I also look at a team like
UC Davis, who is likely going to finish with eight
wins as well. And I mean Young Sound State has
a couple of ranked wins on their resume for Young

(13:49):
Sound State, so I wonder if they might be able
to slip into a top sixteen seed from like that
fourteen to sixteen range. But we'll see, you know, eight
wins might not jump off the for the committee, but
they do have those couple of ranked wins in a
top twenty strength to schedule as well. And yeah, I
thought that was a really good bounce pack performance from
the Penguins because you can have, you know, a physical

(14:11):
and also a mental hangover when you go to the
number one team in the country and you nearly win.
So I thought that was a good bounce back performance
in Southern Illinois. I mean, they hit a couple of
explosive plays, whether that was schemed up or just defensive
breakdowns by Youngstown States. I thought they kind of settled
in there and that was a huge win for the Penguins.
My last game ball here, I'm gonna give it to

(14:32):
Montana States. It seems like we haven't even really mentioned
Montana State over the last few weeks, which you know,
maybe isn't the best strategy on my part, because you know,
audience wise, we have the most listeners coming out of
the state of Montana. But when Montana State is I mean,
when you're a top three team in your boat racing
unranked opponents, like there isn't much to break down, especially

(14:54):
when you're trying to fit in all these other ranked
matchups and intriguing matchups. But I definitely think the Bobcats
I deserve their flowers now with eight straight wins after
their own two start against Oregon and South Dakota State,
and they've been just demolishing teams. Fifty seven to three
over Eastern Washington, thirty four to ten at ranked Northern Arizona,
forty eight to fourteen versus Idaho State thirty four to

(15:16):
seventeen at cal Poly. That was a game that cal
Poly scored a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter
fifty five to seven at Northern Colorado and then this
last week sixty six to fourteen over Weaver State. And yeah,
a lot of these teams, or all of them except
for Northern Arizona, are not ranked, but they are beating
them more decidedly than their in state rival Montana. And

(15:39):
there's different matchup things there, in different game flow of
things there. So it isn't, you know, totally fair comparisons.
But to me, they're just playing like one of the
more complete teams in the FCS. I think their defense
is top two, if not number one in the FCS
with how well they're playing. And then offensively, this is
the most balanced Montana State team we've seen in a
long long time. Ground game is starting to get going

(16:01):
or has been getting going after offensive line needed a
little bit of time to gel. They're averaging about two
hundred and thirty two rushing yards per game. Then justin Lampson,
you know, might not have those highlight reel plays as
a Tommy Mallott, but he's definitely a better peer passer
than a lot and they can spread teams out, they
can throw it. Lampson has an eighteen to two touchdown
to interception ratio, So he's playing at a high level

(16:23):
as well. In this Montana State team, you know, like
I said, to me, looks like outside of NDSCU, which
I mean, n you see these last couple of games,
doesn't look like world beaters. Montana State to me is
the second best team in the country and one of
the more complete teams in the country for the Bobcats.

Speaker 2 (16:40):
And I think you saw the playoff committee say that too, right.

Speaker 1 (16:43):
Yeah, they've been on it for They've been on it
for a while now, having the Montana State number two
and both of their end season rankings releases.

Speaker 3 (16:51):
Yeah, I've been really impressed with them. The biggest thing,
like you said, is I think that run game has
finally started to.

Speaker 2 (16:57):
Kind of look like itself.

Speaker 3 (16:58):
And it took Julius Davis and Adam Jones and those
guys a little bit longer to kind of jail early.
But now then that team was playing so well. And
I kind of said this earlier this week, is I
think this might be the best Montana State defense we've.

Speaker 2 (17:12):
Seen in a while.

Speaker 3 (17:14):
It's definitely, in my opinion, the best that we've seen
under Vegan.

Speaker 2 (17:17):
I don't know how you feel about that.

Speaker 3 (17:18):
But I would say they're playing like the best defensive
unit that he's had here.

Speaker 1 (17:24):
Yeah, I would agree they might. I don't think they
have the star players maybe of like Greeby or Troy Anderson,
Daniel Hardy, those type of guys, But overall as a unit,
I think they're deeper on the defensive line. I think
their linebackers to me, look a bit longer and you know,
more athletic, and you know, secondary I think is playing

(17:46):
really well. They're really young, especially at the cornerback position,
but those guys that are flying around, so yeah, to me,
I might not have the star part, but definitely looks
like the best unit that they've had for a while. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (17:55):
I won't spend too much longer on my flag. He
kind of broke it down a little bit earlier with
the Mammoth New Hampshire game. Not Flag went to Mammoth
just because, I mean, you talk about missing Darrin Robertson.
But I thought Frankie Weaver played really well. Yeah, it
was under pressure a lot, but twenty one to thirty
one two forty two, two touchdowns. It was the rushing
game that really let them down, and it was a

(18:16):
really surprising letdown. You mentioned Rodney Nelson has been electric
this year. Elijah Jenny's couldn't get anything going, and they
put a ton on a guy in Frankie Weaver that
doesn't have a ton of experience, and they put a
lot of weight on him, a lot of pressure on
him because the run game wasn't there.

Speaker 2 (18:34):
And I look at Mammoth.

Speaker 3 (18:35):
The only reason I throw the flag is still only
their first FCS loss, which is fine, but you had
this one at home. You had two of the worst
teams in the in the CAAA over the next two weeks.
This was the game. You had it at home. Your
backup quarterback played well. This one should have been a
win and probably would have solidified themselves as the top

(18:56):
eight seed. And now with only one signature win at
Villanova game, maybe you can count Delaware State now with
how they've been looking in the MEAC. But I do
think I find it hard to see that they're going
to have a path to a top eight seed now.

Speaker 2 (19:10):
And on top of that too, they lose the CIA.

Speaker 3 (19:13):
Championship potentially if Rhode Island wins out, and that's a
big thing for Mama Man. I thought they were on
track to win this conference hold on to the auto
bit even without Derek Robertson. So that's why I threw
the flag on on this week.

Speaker 1 (19:25):
Yeah, and they had they had an opportunity to with
I mean, had they finished undefeated versus the FCS. They
had that ranked win over Villanova compared to like Harvard
could finish undefeated with no ranked win, same thing with
Tennessee Tech. And so you felt good about mom and
especially because they were able to keep on winning without
Derek Robertson. So yeah, this is a tough loss for them.

(19:47):
My flag, I'm going to give it to Southeastern Louisiana.
We kind of I won't touch on the game a
whole lot because they're already did so talking about how
big of a win this was for Lamar. But on
the Southeastern Louisiana side of things, you know, kind of
just the I guess, somewhat of a buzzkill performance because
they were, you know, kind of clamoring that they should be,
you know, a top ten team with how they've been

(20:08):
beaten up on their opponents and being undefeated versus the FCS.
But this was kind of just a clunker over performance.
You obviously give Lamar a ton of credit, especially defensively.
But this was an opportunity for Southeastern Louisiana to get
its lone ranked win of the season and they come
up short. I still think they could go nine and
three overall, which would be nine and one versus the FCS.

(20:31):
There was a chance that could still get them into
the playoffs, but I feel like right now you look
at SFA and Lamar certainly have much better chances to
get int the playoffs out of the Southland. Is there
a room for that number three team in the Southland
to get in it? It kind of depends on what
happens with the bubble, and we've seen I believe it
was nine and two McNees in like twenty sixteen, seventeen eighteen,

(20:52):
somewhere around there a nine win McNeese team get left
out of the playoffs because they lacked inequality wins. So
it'll be very interesting to see how Southeastern Louisiana how
the playoff comittee views them if they were to finish
nine and one. Do you have kind of any feelings
about how the South End could shake out if they're
a two bid league or do you think they could
get three teams in?

Speaker 3 (21:14):
You also mentioned what about that non winning Cardinal Word
team too, they got left a couple of years ago. Yeah,
but also to the one difference tier is Southeast Louisiana
didn't play a non D one opponent that made these
team and then a Cardin Word team did. Plus that
a cardinet Ward team had the canceled game if you remember,

(21:34):
from Northwestern State, so they had like a double dose
of you know, they just didn't have enough wins. But
I think if if Southeastern wins out, they're probably in.
And that like you said, nine in one against THEFCS.
If we've gotten to a point in the playoffs where
nine division one wins doesn't get you in, I think
we've kind of lost the plot here of the FCS playoffs.

Speaker 2 (21:58):
Like listen, I.

Speaker 3 (21:59):
Get it, and we should break down strength to schedule,
we should break down resume. But if you won't, at
the end of the day, nine wins is too much.
It is more than seven, and we have I think
we have to give credence to they won non division
one games. Maybe they didn't play the gauntlet of the schedule. Maybe,
but at the end of the day, they won non
division one games and went nine in one against the FCS.

(22:21):
Their only loss was a two point loss to a
team that's going to be in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
It's very, very hard to argue.

Speaker 1 (22:29):
Now.

Speaker 3 (22:29):
The trick here is, though, is this weekend they actually
do have a tougher game than I think people are
giving them credit for. Is this incardinate Word team is
starting to play better football that they they have. They've
won some key games recently.

Speaker 2 (22:43):
I think E. J.

Speaker 3 (22:43):
Colson's coming into his own, Jalen Walthall getting healthy makes
that offense a little bit scary, and that defense for
Incarnate Word has played well.

Speaker 2 (22:51):
For a majority of the year.

Speaker 3 (22:52):
If they go in there and overlook Incarnate Word have
to get back on the road to San Antonio.

Speaker 2 (22:58):
That could be a really big trap game. And I
think if they lose.

Speaker 3 (23:00):
That one Sam and they wind up over they'll be
eight and four. I think then they'd probably be on
the outside looking in, depending on how the bubbles shook out, right.

Speaker 1 (23:09):
Yeah, yeah, I think Southeastern Louisiana definitely has to to
win out here. Handle handle business. And I mean you
look at Okay Villanova. If they went out, they would
be nine in one versus the FCS no ranked wins.
I feel like, just on the surface, people would comfortably
put Villanova in at nine and one versus the FCS, Well,
Southeastern Louisiana at nine in one versus the FCS no

(23:29):
ranked wins. Their strength of schedules are right on par
with each other. I think they're like in the in
the upper fifties when you look at year in a
strength of schedule. So I think if you put Villanova in,
Southeastern Louisiana also probably deserves to be in, and plus
you'll have like I think Western Carolina can get in
at eight and four, but they don't have any ranked wins.
I mean, Dartmouth and Wilhelm and Mary may be at

(23:49):
eight wins, no ranked wins, Northern Arizona eight wins, no
ranked wins. So it's not like there's any team that
basically my points, I think Southeastern Louisiana at nine in
one would have a pretty good argument to get in.

Speaker 3 (24:02):
Well, that's the only thing I'll push back on when
people ask me that is what they'll do if they
don't want a team to get in, is they'll they'll
they'll hit us up in like the X threads on
social media, right and say, Sam zach Man, this team
hasn't played anybody, and it was like, okay, well, yeah,
neither has a ton of the bubble teams. Like, there's
a ton of bubble teams this year that don't have

(24:22):
a scene that you're win and so I don't think
you can use that as like a as a knock
on them.

Speaker 2 (24:28):
They don't have a ranked win, you mission all.

Speaker 3 (24:29):
The other teams, but also too if they don't get
in at nine and one, say, and then why is
everybody so confident that Harvard's going to get in at
nine and one? If they drop a game to let's
say Yale next week and Yale gets the auto bid,
why would we all be so confident that Harvard gets
in at nine and one. They also don't have a
ranked win on their resume, but from talking to people,
everyone thinks that Harvard's firmly in. So I do wonder

(24:52):
why Southeast and Louisiana is kind of getting the hammer
from all the fans and media people when there's a
ton of teams that have very similar restons. May that
have kind of been propped up in this conversation.

Speaker 1 (25:03):
Yeah, I mean there's if you're not in the valley,
because obviously the Valley this year has had six, if
not seven teams in the top twenty five. If you're
not in the Valley, there's really no other teams that
have multiple ranked wins right now besides who abling Christian.
Other than that, mostly everyone has either zero or only
one ranked win. And that includes Montana schools in Lehigh.

(25:25):
You know, Tarlton State has one rank ring now with
what West Georgia coming back in Marcer has one, Mamoth
has one, Harvard Tennessee Tech have zero. And so the
argument of they haven't played anyone, you can say that
about a lot of different teams. And I think one
thing too is like ranked wins, I count those both
then ranked wins and currently ranked wins, and because I

(25:45):
do think ranked wins and strength to schedule are probably
the most important factors. But also when it comes to
the playoff committee in their process of doing things, it's
kind of a multi tiered voting system. But to start out,
they all vote like a pool of however many teams
that they think deserve to at least get an at
large bid, and there could be forty five total teams

(26:06):
that get enough votes to be kind of in this
big pool. And then they kind of vote that down. Well,
they also look at, okay, there is these forty schools
kind of in this pool. How many teams has team
a beat out of this pool? And some of those
teams might not be ranked, but they're in that pool
of at least you know, on the on the fringe
of being you know, play in the playoffs. And so
I think the committee counts those as well. Where even

(26:27):
if a team might not have they might only have
one ranked win, well, they might have three wins over
teams that are at least in this big pool of
teams we should consider to be in the playoff bracket.

Speaker 3 (26:39):
Yeah, because like I'll look at specifically, a win over
Southern Utah could end up helping a team like UC Davis, Yeah,
especially because.

Speaker 1 (26:47):
If they went out and finished with I think it'd
be seven wins.

Speaker 2 (26:50):
Yeah, so they'd be in the pool.

Speaker 3 (26:51):
And a team like what if Incardinate Word wins out
that win probably age is better for NAU or you know,
whoever has a win over UIW So like teams like that,
I think, like I would say this, any team that's
probably in like the top fifty, top forty of the
analytics probably should be counted as a as a signature
win or at least a good win for a resume,

(27:14):
like Lehia a win over Yale. If Yale wins out,
how big is that Lehigh win now over Yale.

Speaker 1 (27:21):
Yeah, and they also beat who's their second league team.
Yeah yeah, I mean that's a that's a pretty good win.

Speaker 3 (27:27):
As well Dartmouth New Hampshire. That could be a really
big win for Dartmouth at the end of the season,
depending on how that turns out. So I do think
that people have to kind of get out of the
mindset of just top twenty five wins. I think there's
quality wins and then there's top twenty five wins because
you mentioned like then ranked wins versus now ranked wins
are much different, Like does a win over Idaho hold

(27:48):
the same weight that it did maybe week four or five?

Speaker 1 (27:52):
Right? Yep, Yeah, for sure. A couple more. We talked
about Lehigh a little bit there. They continue to roll.
They beat up on Holy Crow U and Lehigh. You know,
we Lafiet is now in the coaches polls, So that's
an opportunity for one rank to win for Lehigh, but
they're overall like opponents record, it's pretty good for Lee High.
They won't have a great strength to schedule. You know,

(28:13):
some people can question if they are a top five
team nashally if they are legit that good. I don't
know for sure if they are top five, but I
do think they are a really good team overall. I
liked how they're built in in the trenches, and you know,
the run game, and they have some receivers on the
outside that can make some some really good contested catches.
So I do think this is a Lee High team

(28:34):
that can do a little bit of damage in the
playoff bracket. They win big once again Davidson. They knock
off a Presbyterian who was ranked in both of the polls.
That kind of puts the bed the chance of the
Pioneer Football League getting in at large bid. With Presbyterian
losing this one, that kind of knocks that out of
the way. I don't know. The ending of this game

(28:56):
was just so frustrating because Davidson was trying to kneel
out the clock, but the refs couldn't figure out like
when to start the clock and the play a clock,
And then I was watching like just get this game
over with all they have to do is kneel out
and the game is over. I can tweet out the
final score, but it took like five minutes for the
reps to figure out when to start the clock, plus

(29:17):
the play a clock. Yeah, it was. It was just
a mess. Another interesting result was number two Montana. They
beat Eastern Washington twenty nine to twenty four. This was
a game I kind of had in the background and
then I turned it off because there was some other
big games going on at that point. And Montana held
a twenty two to seven lead, but then Eastern Washington
shipped away. They made it twenty nine to twenty four

(29:38):
with one oh one to play, and then they recovered
the on site kick, and you go, okay, I got
I gotta get this game on. See what's going to happen.
Eastern Washington had the ball in scoring position with seconds
to go. They try to spike the ball, but it
ends up Jake Shakele ends up fumbling the ball and
so the clock runs Out's just a brutal way to
end that game. I will say, though, Shakle, who's a

(29:59):
retirt freshman, I believe technically he's the number three quarterback
for Easan Washington. He had a heck of a game,
four hundred and fifty plus yards, a couple of touchdowns,
also a couple of picks, so you like everyone's gonna
I know that it kind of went somewhat viral on
social media, him fumbling that attempt at spike, but he
had a heck of a game. So that was another
interesting result. And then, I mean the highest ranked matchup

(30:21):
north Koda States, they go to U and D. They
get a fifteen to ten win. U and D was
ranked number thirteen at the time, so that's NDSU sixth
the ranked win of the season, both then ranked and
currently ranked, so they're just you know, patting their resume.
And it was a game that U and D was
in control both. I thought they controlled the trenches, the
flow of the game, the amount of plays they played.

(30:43):
But we've seen this with NDSU, whether it was against
Ablin Christian or ETSU last year or against UIW in
the semi finals a few years ago. If you have
a lead on NBSU and you have an opportunity to
get even more of a cushion with that lead, but
you can't get it done. It was one of those
games where the longer un D held that one score lead.

(31:03):
The more confident I was that NBC was going to win.
At some point, They're gonna get the ball and there
they were going to go down and score. I mean,
the Bison were able to do that with a few
minutes left. So any takeaways from from any of those.

Speaker 3 (31:14):
Results I just mentioned, Yeah, you kind of talk hit
hit the perfect point in that North Dakota State game.
If you don't put them away, they're going to They're
going to find a way to win. That's kind of
been their DNA under polosek All last year. Man, there
were a handful of games where teams had a chance
to put them away and and and and win that game,
and they just let them hang around and let them

(31:36):
hang around, and then in the crucial moments, North Dakota
State always makes the right play. And I think again,
even though his stats weren't great, there were probably three
four plays that Cole Payton made that if they don't
have those plays from him, North Dakota State loses this game.
And again, people forget that this is a new staff
for North Dakota. There's a ton of new pieces on
this team, a first year starting quarterback. This team just

(31:57):
has to learn how to win. I think they're extly talented, Sam,
and they just don't know how to win these close game. Shit,
there's been so many just one score losses for this team,
and they got to find a way to close some
of these out. You mentioned the Montana Eastern Washington game.
I'm just gonna say, like, if Montana can lock in
for four quarters, Sam, I think they are an amazing team.

(32:19):
It's just there just seems to be these lags in
the game. They either start out cold, they hit a
cold stretch during the middle of the game, they don't
finish the game well. They if they could stay locked
in for four quarters, this team would be so talented.
It's just like they lose focus and key moments, and
a lot of these games that they really probably would
dominate end up being way closer than they should be.

(32:40):
Look at that Sacred Heart game. That game was out
of hand and then all of a sudden, here, you know,
they just they just kind of let their foot off
the gas. I think that's kind of been the difference
between them and Montana State. Montana State is just throttling teams.
Montana's just letting teams hang around. And so I think
those were kind of my takeaways from some of those
games you hit them.

Speaker 1 (33:00):
Yeah, it's it's interesting watching Montana because they do look
so good for maybe a half or three quarters, but
then they have that lapse and whether that's you know,
mentally just taking the foot off of the gas a
little bit, or you're obviously calling the game a little
bit differently when you have that big of a lead.
It could be you know, rotating more, you know, inexperienced

(33:20):
younger players in because you have that lead. But you know,
at the end of the day, they keep on winning.
And if the grizz do keep on winning and they
get Montana State at home, that is certainly going to
get the number two seed for the Grizz And you
feel like, especially if they're at home in the playoffs,
like good luck anyone going into Missoula and getting to
win in the playoffs. But also like it's it's not

(33:42):
to excuse like how they performed against Eastern Washington in
the second half there, but it's easier to have those
kind of lapses in games when it's in the regular
season against an unranked opponent compared to in the quarterfinals
in the semi finals, Like you just kind of naturally
expect the grizz to be a bit more locked in
if they're in the quarterfinals or the semi finals. So
I do think they are a very very dangerous team,

(34:04):
especially with the Brawl of the Wild being in Missoula.
But you do kind of want to see them, you know,
kind of put the finishing touches on on these type
of games for Montana. All right, looking ahead to this weekend,
some big games with big time playoff implications. We have
four ranked matchups. One of the more intriguing ones Top
ten showdown here a number nine. You see Davis goes two,

(34:25):
number three. Montana states, this is going to be an
ESPN two game late at night. I think it's I
think it's like nine to fifteen Central time kickoff somewhere
around there. So it's still gonna be a late one,
a big sky at dark. A very very interesting game here,
because I feel like this is an important win for
both squads going into the final week of the regular season.

(34:46):
If you see Davis were to lose this game, they'd
be sitting at seven and three overall, at seven and
two versus the FCS, that would definitely put some big
time pressure on them to beat their rival Sacramento State,
who also if Sacramento State wins this weekend, they would
also be at seven wins. So all of a sudden,
we're looking at if sax State wins out, you know,
all of a sudden, they can kind of somehow us

(35:07):
sneak their way into into the playoffs. So this is
a huge opportunity for UC Davis. If they pull off
an upset here, they are for sure in with eight wins.
And then for Montana State, I mean, is this a
trap game? A week before going to Missoula and playing
your rival, We'll have to see the Bobcats do really
seem locked in. If they are able to get this win,

(35:27):
that would be nine straight wins for the Bobcats and
then bringing in plenty of plenty of momentum into the
Brawl of the Wild, which you know, every year since
twenty nineteen, the home team has pretty much boat raced
the opposing team in the Brawl. It seems like this
year we could finally get that really close game just
with how Montana State is built, but they definitely need

(35:50):
to carry some momentum into that game with hosting Davis
this week.

Speaker 3 (35:55):
Yeah, I'm very curious to see how the kind of
injuries that are starting to pollo up for you Davis
affect them. I want to say, plowing out today that
Vargas is out for the year now as well, and
they've just they're missing some key defensive pieces. It just
feels like injuries are happening at the worst time for
this UC Davis team with how well Montana State's playing.
Plus you got a redshirt freshman and independent going into

(36:17):
a very hostile environment, and so I just I don't
know how I feel about the matchup overall, But in
terms of playoff implications, this one, like you said, is
super important for UC Davis because I think a blowout
loss maybe changes to conversation a bit, Sam, because if
they keep it competitive, you think back to last year's game,
maybe it helps them kind of keeps them, keeps them

(36:39):
on the right side of the bubble, even if they
drop a game next week to Sack State, for them
to be competitive, because you look at a team like
North Dakota still being propped up by some of those
close losses and competitive losses they have. Youngstown's built some
of their resume on that as well. They just need
to be competitive in this one. I still love the
matchup for Montana State, but for them this win would

(37:01):
be a huge signature win on their resume, especially if
in a U wins out of as well. They would
have two big wins there and it could help them
if they do drop the brawl, keeping them in one
of those top three seeds, potentially even in the top four.

Speaker 1 (37:17):
Yeah, I'm really excited to watch Pinnic and how he
plays going into hostile territory. I mean, he flashes so
much at multiple different points in games, but he also
kind of has those freshman moments as well with with
some turnovers. So this should be a really exciting game
and we'll get it's on national television as well on
ESPN two. Another ranked matchup here in the Valley. We

(37:38):
have a number fourteen Illinois State going to number sixteen
South Dakota State. We kind of talked about the Jackson
how they're trending three straight losses after a seven and
zero start, injuries that keep on piling up. It doesn't
sound super promising that Chase Mason is going to be
back this week, but he's getting closer, but I mean

(37:58):
he definitely wouldn't jack some life into South Gota State,
but they're also dealing with, you know, injuries to their
best defensive player and some rotational defensive lineman, best wide
receiver Sam Hagan, who's who's maybe their best offensive lineman,
he's also been out. So this is a beat up
South Gota State team that really desperately needs to get
a win. They win this one, they hit, they hit

(38:19):
eight wins. They're for sure in the playoff bracket in
my opinion, no matter what happens at un D, but
also just getting some momentum and confidence on their side
going into that un D game. And on the flip
side for Illinois State, they're at eight. They're at seven
wins right now, excuse me, they do have a couple
or one ranked win over USD, so you feel like

(38:39):
Illinois State is one more win away from from making
the playoffs. At the same time, two ranked opponents still
to play with SDSU and Southern Illinois. So you know,
Illinois State is a team that you know, they're not
a gammy to get in right now, even though they're
decently ranked in the polls. This is a huge opportunity
for both teams and for me to me the winner

(39:00):
here for sure. In the playoffs, and the loser is
potentially in must win mode when it comes to next week.

Speaker 3 (39:07):
I completely agree that that was my number one takeaway.
The winners locked in, the loser has to win next week.
And if you're Illinois State, you're probably facing less pressure,
right because you get that game next week at home
against the Southern Illinois team that hasn't been playing its
best football recently, and so you probably feel a little
bit better than South Dakota State having to go into

(39:27):
the Alahia Center where it's already hard to win against
a potentially desperate North Dakota team, right, And so that's
a really tough matchup, And I don't know how the
biggest question here is what happens. Like, let's just say,
worst case scenario, South Dakota State doesn't win one of
their last two games. I think, Sam, you look at

(39:47):
their resume, that they would have what three ranked wins
still on their resume. They would have the head to
head against Montana State, which would really be good. Youngstown
would be eight and four. They'd have the head to
head over them. But if if you're the committee and
let's just say Chase Mason isn't back at this time,
How do you say that that team belongs in the
playoffs with how they're playing five straight losses, no starting quarterback,

(40:12):
you're missing some other key players. I would just find
it hard if I'm the committee to say I test
wise right now that that team's playing like one of
the twenty four best teams in the country.

Speaker 1 (40:22):
Yeah. I do think how you're trending and how you're
playing recently is a factor for the playoff committee. And
player availability is also a factor. And you know, we
saw that a couple of years ago with Western Carolina
who had an opportunity or had an argument to get in,
but they suffered a bad loss where Cole Gonzales got
got hurt in that game and it was a season

(40:43):
ending injury for him, and so his non availability I
was a factor in keeping them out. And so yeah,
I do think if South Gota State finishes seven to
five and they have the you know, those ranked wins
over Montana State and Youngstown State, and like let's say
even Sack State, sax State wins out and they're in
the playoff, you know that that that win ages well
for South Kota State. But even with seven and five,

(41:05):
three ranked wins on a five game losing streak with
how you're playing currently, you know, it would be tough
in my opinion for the committee to put Southcota State in,
And like it's kind of a it's tough because they
do take overall body of work into play, and so
you could also flip that around and say, well overall
body of work, like there's maybe there's two other seven

(41:25):
win teams you know that are in, and South Kota
State has you know, one more ranked win or two
more ranked wins than then one of them. Maybe that
gives them an argument to get in. But if you're
if you're losing five in a row and you know,
Chase Mason and some of those other guys haven't been
back yet, I feel like that would be a pretty
good reason for the committee to leave the Jacks out
at seven and five.

Speaker 3 (41:45):
Yeah, and that would just be talk about it just
a a shake up right there. But I mean, who
saw that come in even with Mason's injury right where
it's just that And I don't even think it's all
Mason's injury slam. I think they're they're missing a people
like Ogrosky being out is really impacting that offense, I
think the Hagen being out impacting that offensive line, which

(42:07):
already wasn't playing great. And then Chase fan Toll is
such a weapon on that defense. Now they got Jalen
Lee back last week, if I'm not mistaken, So that's
big for the secondary. But like you said, I do
think you have to take into account how these teams
are playing, and you look at some of the teams
that are surging right now on the bubble. You mentioned
a Western Carolina probably playing their best football right now,

(42:27):
I mean, and then even two like, how do you
compare a seven win SDSU team that's lost five straight
with a potential eight or nine win SLU team or
Northern Arizona on the bubble with eight wins or I
mean even like what happens if Southern Utah is on
a what would they be on a five or six
game win streak at seven and five? Would you take

(42:49):
the Jacks on a five game losing streak over a
surging Southern Utah team with two ranked wins as well?
Because they would have wins over Apple and Christian and
Austin p if I'm not mistaken at that point. So
there's just so many different scenarios. So I think the
Jacks this weekend Sam at home, this is your best
chance for a win, and this feels like a must
win to just kind of correct the momentum before going

(43:10):
into the Alairi Center next weekend.

Speaker 1 (43:12):
Yeah, and the Indiana State game or that loss is
going to stick out like a sore thumb as well.
And if you know, if playoff commtee members kind of
want to argue on why they would put a seven
and five Southcota State team in, I mean they could say, okay, well,
quote unquote, forgive you a little bit for the losses
at South Dakota and NDSU because you didn't have you know,

(43:32):
your quarterback and other injuries, and you know, Chase Mason
also wasn't back for Illinois State and you lost that
one that was a close game. Mason came back against
you w and D you lost that one in a
close game. Yeah, So you can kind of make quote
unquote excuses for Southcota State if you want, But that
Indiana State game, you know, I don't care how many
starters were out, you just can't lose that game. And

(43:54):
so I think that's the one that is possibly going
to come back to bite. South Kota State is is losing,
especially at home to Indiana State, a game that they
had opportunities to win, they just weren't able to do that.
So yeah, it'll be interesting to see how south Data
State finishes here. Going to the south and now number
nineteen LAMAR goes to number fifteen SFA. We have the

(44:16):
auto bid on the line here. Potentially in the Southland,
SFA could get it with a win. Six and zero
in South Fold play right now eight and two overall
eight straight wins, they only have seven D one wins
and so that could potentially be a factor as far
as if SFA can get a top sixteen seed and
where they would be seeded in that scenario one unless
D one win could be a factor there for SFA.

(44:39):
Lamar is eight and two overall, five and one in
the Southland. They have a couple of ranked wins, a
big one over USD and also just beat Southeastern Louisiana.
Southeastern is also five and one in the standings seven
and one versus the FCS. SFA in Southeastern don't play,
which is kind of unfortunate because that would be a
really good data point. Same thing with in the CAA

(45:00):
with a Roady doesn't play momth or Vilanova, Like those
would be pretty good matchups for data points for us
in the media and on the playoff committee. But this
is a big one here, Lamar going to SFA A
lot on the line here is it's like we talked
about Southland, I would say, unless huge upsets happen, which
you never know, but two bid league for sure for

(45:20):
the Southland and a very good chance being a three
bid league.

Speaker 3 (45:25):
I am curious the one thing, So like let's just
say Stephen f Alston wins out, I do wonder what their.

Speaker 2 (45:30):
Chances would be at a top eight seed.

Speaker 3 (45:34):
Yeah, yeah, that's the thing, because I don't think Ablen
Christian is going to be in play for a top
eight seed because they've lost too many games, Like at
the end of the day, that incordinate word loss particularly
kind of sticks out for them, or even really the
Southern Utah loss. But I mean they do have what

(45:54):
is it, like four ranked wins right now, and so
I do wonder if the committee will have as a
face seated higher than ACU. And obviously we only got
their top ten, so we don't know kind of what
was behind those top ten teams. But SFA has been
playing outstanding football since that loss. And that was a
game where, if I'm not mistaken, they came out early,
really flat.

Speaker 2 (46:15):
ACU jumped out.

Speaker 3 (46:16):
Early, and it was on the road, and they made
it competitive toward the end, and they were really coming back.

Speaker 2 (46:20):
They just ran out of time.

Speaker 3 (46:22):
And I do wonder if they look at how SFA
is playing now, I do think they would need some
help SAM, like they would need like a Harvard upset
or I mean, who else in that top eight seed range.
I mean maybe like Mercers slipping up in their final
Silka game, which we've seen happen before, right, I mean happen,

(46:42):
So they would need some help. But I do wonder
how much of a candidate they'd be. I really like
how this defense is playing. I think SFA kind of
gets labeled. SAM was just like this high flying offense,
like they're they're they're they're going to win games based
on offense. I think their defense has been out playing
their offense this year. They're allowing to two yards per carry,
sixty five point five yards per game defensively in the

(47:04):
air only line of one eighty two. They have one
of the best defenses in the country, and I think
this is one of the best defenses Kobe Carthle has
put together at his time at this program. And this
team look looks legit if they win this. If they
win this one, like you said, they clinch it up.
And also too, if I'm not mistaken, if it's a
three way toss, Steven f Alston still wins a tiebreaker.

(47:25):
So they're sitting really, really pretty. But I think a
win this weekend will kind of solidify themselves. I would
imagine that it would solidified them as somewhere in that
top twelve seed range. I don't know if they can
push until the top eight, but they should get one
of the higher seeds in terms of even the first
round matchups.

Speaker 1 (47:41):
Yeah, it'd be interesting to see how a ten win
SFA team, but with only nine D one wins, how
would that stack up against Let's just say, you know,
young Sound States and U and D who have eight wins,
so one less D one win than SFA, but they
also have you know, one or two more ranked wins

(48:02):
than SFA. Then you also have like Aplin Christian I
think could finish with eight D one wins. They four
ranked wins is one including over SFA. So yeah, it'll
be interesting to see how far SFA can can climb.
You know, style points they never hurt, so I don't
know if they would. I mean, we thought Southeast in
Louisiana would potentially blow out Lamar. That obviously didn't happen.

(48:23):
But if SFA were to win rather decisively and this one,
I think that could go a long way as far
as just getting those style points. Another one here, let's
go back to the Valley. Number seventeen, South Dakota goes
to number twenty one Southern Illinois. I kind of touched
on this before with us D. I don't necessarily think
this is a must win for the outs. Now, you

(48:44):
still obviously want to win this game, because if you do,
and you the Oats, you finish eight and four overall
before a week thirteen by you were for sure in
the playoffs in that scenario with a few ranked wins.
Even if you lose in your USD and your seven
and five overall, you have a couple of ranked win
n D and Southcota State. I still think that gives
you a pretty good argument to get into the bracket.

(49:05):
But you're also facing off against a bunch of other
seven and eight win teams, So still a huge deal
for USC to get this win to kind of stamp
their playoff resume. On the flip side, Southern Illinois desperately
needs a win here. They have yet to get a
ranked victory. They're sitting at six and four right now,
but they only have five D one wins on the resume,
so that non D one win could definitely be a

(49:26):
factor for the Salukis. Then their last two games obviously
against USD, but then they go to Illinois State, so
they even if they split these next two games, I
don't know if I mean, maybe you get in at
seven overall wins, but six D one wins is really
going to stick out like a sore thumb. So for me,
I think Southern Illinois has to win out if they

(49:47):
do there for sure in the playoffs. If they split
these last two games, that's a really really interesting playoff resume.
If they get in at seven wins but only six
D one wins, but they get a ranked win in
one of these last one of these last two games,
that would be very very interesting.

Speaker 3 (50:04):
Yeah, about three weeks ago, I thought that South Dakota
was going to be the Valley team on the outside
looking in, and it's really kind of shaping up that
s i U might be that team, because I find
it hard to believe like the Valley could get six,
but there's no chance at seven right there's I just
don't see that happening, and I think SIU would just

(50:24):
the way it shook out, especially with their nine D
one win, is going to be on the outside looking in,
which is which is upsetting because I do think this
is a good team. I would love to see DJ
Williams in the playoffs, but that those defensive issues just
kind of came back to bite them in some crucial
games down the stretch, and I, like you said, I
think they probably need to win both of these last
two games to get in and it's just going to

(50:46):
be tough. You got South Dakota this weekend and you
go on the road to Illinois State. I think both
of those are must win games. They they only could
afford to lose one of these last three, and they
kind of wasted that. Lost last week against Jongstown State
in a game that they had a they had a
really good chance to win for three quarters and Youngstown
closed that game out really impressively, and we kind of
already kind of talked about how like in terms of

(51:09):
the valley race, Illinois State is in a pro I
think they're in a pretty good position, but I'll be
honest with them, the best position I think out of
all the valley teams. Like obviously you got North Dakota
State at the top. North Dakota's fine, South Dakota's in
a good position. The one team I really think is
in almost a lot territory barring just insane upshet as

(51:29):
Youngstown right now when you kind of look at what
they have up coming up, they get a home game
against Indiana State. At you and I winning last week
against Southern Illinois potentially could have locked up their spot
as long as they handle business, because I think at
eight and four, Youngstown's probably a lot here. So I
think the valley race was looking very very chaotic here.
It's kind of shaped up to be a little bit

(51:53):
less chaotic than we thought. But I think the selukis
this week, like you said, must win game this weekend
against South Dakota, And I think for South Dakota, you
put yourself in a really really good spot with the
win last week over South Dakota State, and now you
got two back to back ranked wins at seven and four,
you just win one, and if you can just win
this one, you're sitting pretty. I think even at seven
and five you have a pretty strong argument to get in,

(52:16):
but you're gonna be a probably uncomfortable on selection Sunday.

Speaker 1 (52:19):
Yeah, there are seven, potentially seven Valley teams that will
potentially have arguments to get into the playoffs because they'll
hit at least you know, seven potentially seven overall wins
and they'll have like one win over the other, but
they also have a ranked loss to to some other teams.
And yeah, NBC is they're sitting pretty. They got the

(52:39):
auto bid locked up, they have a top two seed
locked up, two unranked teams still to come. Young Sound State,
like you said, Still they're sitting pretty as well. They
got to handle business against Indiana State and Northern Iowa.
But you know, everyone else pretty much has one, if
not two ranked opponents still to come. So that's going
to be a really entertaining finish to see who positions

(53:00):
themselves well for the playoffs of the Missouri Valley Football Conference.
And then one more game here at a touch on
let's go to the CIA number eleven, Rhode Island goes
to Maine. With Momuth losing this last weekend, Roady is
in the driver's seat to win the CIA's auto bid.
I still feel like if mom myth and Rhode Island
were to win out, Roady would get the auto bid.

(53:21):
I still think Mammoth would get a higher seed just
because their overall resume. I mean, we've seen that before
in the past, like even this you're a happling Christian
could win the UAC auto bid. But I still think
Tarlton State would be a higher seed. So it's not,
you know, out of the ordinary for a team to
get an auto bid but be seated below another team
in their conference. But Maine is kind of on a

(53:42):
heater right now. They've won six straight games. They're six
and four overall, but six and two versus the FCS
if you take out a couple of FBS losses five
and one in league play. I mean, I believe Maine
plays New Hampshire as well next weekend, so in New
Hampshire is also kind of in the playoff mix as well,
So Maine could kind of be a factor here when

(54:03):
it comes to the playoffs, and if they gets a
huge upset here, then all of a sudden, Maine is
certainly in play as far as a team that's kind
of snuck up on us a little bit and being
a factor in the playoff race.

Speaker 3 (54:13):
Yeah, who would have thought that Maine would be out
here settling the CAAA race. What's interesting with the CIA
ame I think with Mama's loss, there's a really good
chance the CIA doesn't get a top eight seed. Now listen, mom,
if could still be there, we'll see where kind of
Rhode Island falls. But I think with the way it's

(54:33):
shaping up, if if Harvard wins out, if Tennessee Tech
handle's business, if Lehigh handles business, and Mercer wins out,
there's a really good chance that Mercer could steak into
the top eight seed over maybe a Mo Myth or
someone like that. And then also to you still have
the UC Davis factor too, if they can pull at
least when one of these next two be in that conversation.

(54:54):
But what happens if they upset Montana State this upcoming weekend,
they could be in the top eight seed range. O.
I think it'd be very interesting to see if a
CIA team can get into that top eight seed conversation.
I think Roadeland has been playing much better since that
lost to Brown. Devin Farrell's settled in, They're finding their
rushing attack. Marquise Buchanan is a studd it wide receiver,

(55:14):
and that defense is starting to find its rhythm a bit.
I like Rhode Island's chances here to close this thing out,
But again, I'm more curious about the bubble teams here
in terms of the CIA Rays Sam Where what is
it going to take for William and Mary or someone
like that to sneak into the field, Because I do
think the bubble is getting really really tight right now,

(55:35):
and I know we all do our different bracketologies. When
I do these projections, I find it very very hard
to get William and Mary into the field.

Speaker 1 (55:43):
Yeah, I agree. Yeah, going back to the top eight seeds,
I was a little surprised that Mercer didn't get into
the Committee's top ten last week. Then again, that was
before the Western Carolina game, so I would imagine that
they'd be in the top ten right now. I think
if wins out, they should be a top eight seed,
because I mean, if Tennessee Tech wins out, they're going

(56:04):
to be a top eight seed. But you compare the
two resumes, they would have the same amount of D
one wins, which would be ten. Mercer would have a
better strength of schedule than Tennessee Tech, and they would
also have one ranked win compared to no ranked wins
for Tennessee Tech. So I'm with you there that Mercer
should probably get into the top eight. And then I
mean Rhode Island could be maybe a top eight with

(56:26):
ten wins, but they don't have a ranked win. I
still right now, I have momth as a top eight
seed right at number eight at ten and one versus
the FCS because of their one ranked win over Villanova.
I mean, I think Villanova is a solid team, like
maybe that gives them the edge over a ten win
Harvard team who's ten and oer but doesn't have any
ranked wins. Strength of schedule is about on par with

(56:48):
each other when you compare Momoth in Harvard. So yeah,
I definitely think seeds six through eight are going to
be very very competitive with how they are shaken out
right now.

Speaker 3 (57:01):
Yeah, And I'll just say this and just kind of
I know it's tough, and me and you both do
it trying to project what these first round games could be.
It's going to be very interesting to see how they
handle travel. I know that there's a lot going on
with flights right now, obviously, uh, and so how do
they handle that, because what's gonna end up happening sam

(57:23):
depending on how it works out. Like let's say UC
Davis is in the top eight seed, their their closest
playoff opponent would be NAU, who they can't play, So
somebody's going to have to fly out to UC Davis.
And then on top of that too, you're gonna have
a ton of Missouri Valley teams in that first round
that can't play each other. I think Illinois State U

(57:45):
and D would be one to kind of look at,
depending on what seed U and D get. But you've
got like Youngstown and South Dakota State and South Dakota
and North Dakota and Illinois State a bunch of those
teams that played each other. So I think that's gonna
be That's gonna be an interesting way committee has to
kind of structure this first round in terms of trying
to keep travel manageable while also avoiding those rematches in

(58:08):
the first round. Because I think this is the first
year we've had this many first potential first round rematches.
Plus you got what would that be three potentially three
CAAA teams playing in the first round two.

Speaker 1 (58:20):
Yeah, yeah, And.

Speaker 3 (58:21):
So that would be very interesting. And there's some exciting
matchups that could happen from that too, because I do
think with all the I know people hate the parody talk,
and yes, North Dakota State is really good.

Speaker 2 (58:32):
It's same for Montana State.

Speaker 3 (58:33):
But when you look at this first round this year, Sam,
I mean, anybody could be beaten this.

Speaker 2 (58:38):
First round this year.

Speaker 3 (58:39):
My opinion now, is there gonna be the one to
two just blowouts because we got some other conferences that
just get auto bids in there.

Speaker 2 (58:47):
Yeah. Probably.

Speaker 3 (58:48):
But there's some really interesting first round matchups that could
create some must see TV in this first round. That's
what I'm really excited to see.

Speaker 1 (58:55):
Yeah, and that could bleed into the second round too,
because we could have some you know, valley teams like
und maybe South Kota State if they win one of
these games, or Young Sound States. Then you could have
like UC Davis as well, who could be a nine
through sixteen seed. They would if they win their first
round game, they would first have to win that, then

(59:16):
they would you know, go on the road and we
would see a Valley team or a big Sky team
that I mentioned go to Lehigh or Tarleton State or
Tennessee Tech Mercer, you know, Harvard or Mamas. So that
could really bleed into the second round where we get
some some really great matchups. And I mean, yeah, the
semi finals, it's probably going to be three of the

(59:36):
same teams in the semi finals, with not all four,
it's probably gonna be North Kota State versus one of
the Montana schools, and so you know, at the end
of the day, it's going to be, oh, it's the
same team, same old, same old top heaviness, and that's
that's all true. But I still think first round, second
round are going to be really really fun. Potentially quarterfinals,
like if if Harvard gets the number eight seed, which

(59:57):
is certainly possible, we could see Harvard versus NDSU in
the quarterfinals, Like that is a dream matchup two years
ago where we like, oh, could you imagine if that
ever happened, that'd be awesome. So I do think we
are in store for a very fun playoff brackets, even
though it's probably gonna be the same name hoisting the
trophy in the same type of matchup. But like you said,
it's gonna be, in my opinion, a really fun playoff overall, I'm.

Speaker 3 (01:00:19):
Just going to pray to the playoff God Sam that
Derek Robertson's healthy and they send Western Carolina to Mammouth
in the first round. That's all I want for. That's
all I want for the playoffs, and I'll be satisfied.
I don't even care what happens. Give me Derreck Robinson
versus t Ron Dickens in the first round. I don't
care what the travel is. AT's fundraise for it because
we need that matchup.

Speaker 1 (01:00:39):
Yeah, we could have so many good quarterback matchups, like
pair up Youngstown State and Mercer, you know in the
second round, or you know Harvard and NDSU, or I
mean Rhode Islands, I mean great quarterback play there. You
send them to Tarleton State, that'd be such an entertaining,
high scoring game right there. So yeah, it could be

(01:01:01):
could have some some really fun matchups there in in
the first and in second round. So well, we will
wrap it up there. Thank you everyone as always for listening,
and we'll catch you guys on the flippity flip