Conference-by-Conference Playoff Outlooks

On this episode, Sam and Zach discuss playoff outlooks for each conference. Who are some bid thieves? Who is on the playoff bubble? Who is in a position to earn a Top 16 seed and a Top 8 seed? They break it all down here.
The podcast is presented by HERO Sports and BetMGM. Visit HERO Sports for FCS coverage and BetMGM for online betting odds.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:18):
All right, Welcome in FCS tackle football fans to another
episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast, presented by Hero
Sports and bet MGM. I'm your host, Sam Herder of
hero Sports, and I'm joined by my co host, Zach McKinnell.
He's with FCS Football Central and the blue Bloods. It's
going to be a heck of a week right here,
with the final week of the regular season before selection Sunday.

(00:41):
So with that said, we are going to change kind
of the order here where we're not going to do
three game balls and a flag. We're not going to
do really any recapping from the previous weekend. Instead, we're
going to go conference by conference playoff outlooks, looking at
at key games, seed scenarios, teams that are on the bubble,

(01:03):
and different bubble scenarios, and doing this would take long enough,
and so we are going to go ahead and skip
recapping this previous weekend because I think at this point
most people don't want to hear us talk about last
week and they want to hear us talk about playoff scenarios. So, Zach,
with that said, how are you doing and are you
all geared up for what this week.

Speaker 2 (01:22):
Is going to bring, Man, I can't wait. Best week
of the I guess the best regular season week of
the FCS season. Man, I can't believe we're here, Sam.
It feels like just yesterday we kicked this thing off
with like a week zero preview and now we're talking
playoffs scenarios and we only have just a few more
days still selection Sunday. Man, I'm ready, yeah, real quick.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
What would your favorite week of the FCS season be?
Would it be this week? Quarterfinals, semi finals or National
Championship week?

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Oh? Okay, so like if I had to include playoffs,
I don't know. I think probably that semi final week,
just because those games are always electric. But man, I'll
be honest, looking at some of these, I guess pretty
checktions for the bracket from me, you and some other
media outlets. Man, I think this year's first round is
going to have an old school feel, Like I used
to be excited for the first round, so there's a

(02:09):
little maybe a little bit more parody. But the last
few years it has been a ton of blowouts. But
I think we're gonna get some really good matchups. I
was I would say the last week of the regular
season and or the semi finals would be my pick, though, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
Semi finals, that's an awesome week. And yeah, I will
agree with the first and second round. I think is
going to be more entertaining this year because, like you said,
the some potential first round matchups and even some potential
second round matchups where we'd see you know, a top
four or three Valley team, you know, traveling to Lee Higher,
Tennessee Tech, or you know, Harvard, whatever the case may be,

(02:42):
in the second round could make for some exciting playoff matchups.
So let's dive into conference by conference here. We'll start
with the Big Sky, and right now, I think there
are five teams still with their playoff hopes alive. Four
of them face off against each other rivalry games. We
have the number three Montana State going to number two Montana.

(03:04):
We also have sax State going to number fifteen UC Davis.
There's also another one as well here with number twenty
three Northern Arizona going to Weber State. NAU potentially could
hit their eighth win be eight and three versus the
FCS if they were able to beat Weaber State, which

(03:24):
you know, seems seems pretty likely. We'll start with that
one right there, because as far as a bubble team
out of the Big Sky, Northern Arizona at eight and
four overall eight and three versus the FCS, they don't
have any currently ranked wins. This might be you know.
One of the more interesting was because where would you
put Northern Arizona if they were to finish eight and

(03:45):
four overall? Do you think that is good enough to
get in or does a lot of it depend on
what happens on the bubble.

Speaker 2 (03:51):
I think they would have a very good shot, like
and I say very good shots, say I'm talking like
probably seventy five percent or more like if you've had
to put some odds on it. The only thing that
could hurt them is is if we have some of
these chaos scenario happen, where like a UT Martin beats
Tennessee Tech or a Lafayette beats Leha. If more than
one of those things happen, I think NAU could be

(04:13):
in trouble because if they finish eight and four, sim
I don't know where you have them like I would
have them in the last four in which means if
if enough chaos scenarios happen, they're going to be one
of the teams that are at risk of getting moved
out to because of Tennessee Tech takes in a large
bit of way. So they're not one hundred percent lock

(04:33):
at eight and four, but I do think if things
stay chalk, they would be one of the last four
in at eight and four, even without a signature win,
because I will say this, like, if we're if we're
if we're looking at quality wins, Sam, I usually try
to use like top fifty wins, you know, whether that's Sagarin,
whether that's Massy, Idaho State in southern Utah are not
bad wins, Like those are quality wins, even though they're

(04:55):
not ranked wins. So you do have that on the resume.
And I think at eight and four, with those two
quality wins, with how the bubble shaping up, I would
take them over an eight and four New Hampshire eight
and four. William and Mary, Yeah, And.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
I think we've talked about on the podcast before where
the playoff committee will they'll each individually vote teams that
they think at least deserve to be in the conversation
for and at large team and that could be you know,
thirty teams, forty teams, whatever, and then part of the
you know, playoff resume as well, is how many wins
do you have over teams you know, at least in

(05:29):
that big at large pool. And we'll get to Southern
Utah later, but I think Southern Utah if they win,
they're at least going to be considered. And Northern Arizona
has that win over Southern Utah. And my bracketology isn't
out right now, but I have it kind of on
the back end ready to publish later today, if not
earlier tomorrow. And yeah, I have Northern Arizona as the

(05:49):
very last team I getting into my bracket. I will
say there are scenarios here with sax State going to
UC Davis that potentially could impact Northern Arizona and if
the Jacks can get in or out, and that is
you know, both sax State and UC Davis. They have
seven wins right now. Sax State doesn't have any currently

(06:10):
ranked wins. UC Davis has one currently ranked win over
Northern Arizona. In my opinion, the winner of this one
is certainly in the playoff field. If sax State wins,
or if you see Davis wins, they get to eight victories,
they're in the playoff field as far as the loser.
In my opinion, if sax State doesn't win this game,
they're not going to be in the playoffs at seven
and five overall no ranked wins then or currently ranked wins.

(06:33):
I believe for sax State, if you see Davis loses,
a seven and four UC Davis team would have a
head to head win over Northern Arizona at eight wins.
So in that scenario, could we see you know, Montana
Montana State are both locks you know to get in.
In this scenario, sax State gets in at eight wins.
Is there room for a seven win UC Davis team

(06:55):
and an eight win Northern Arizona team? Or does UC
Davis be that fourth team while Northern Arizona ends up
getting bumped out just because of that had to head
lost to UC Davis. I think that is an interesting
scenario if this result were to happen, of sax State
beating UC Davis.

Speaker 2 (07:10):
I agree. And here's the other thing. I'm a little
bit curious, Sam. I know it didn't count and it
technically doesn't exist I guess in the record books, but
with how mercers look, does the committees say man like
UC Davis was up on them. Now Brad Atkinson did play,
Marcer was driving to potentially, you know, take the lead,
tie that game up. Whatever it was, I'd blinking on

(07:33):
if it was gonna be a tie game or they
were going to take the lead. But does that game
and how close they played Mercer is going to be
a top eight seed impact them as well? Yeah, Yeah,
that's a conversation to have. But I do agree, like
I do think head to head has to matter some,
but also too, does the trajectory of the program and
what the teams play like matter because we're going to

(07:54):
talk in the Missouri Valley of a certain team that
might be in at seven and five or may not,
But jectory of the team matters. And going if UC
Davis loses this weekend, if I'm not mistaken, that would
be three of the last four games that they've lost. Yeah,
does that matter to the committee. And they have a
ton of injuries? Do they take into account all the
injuries they've had on the defensive side, the ball, running back,

(08:17):
it's some other key positions.

Speaker 1 (08:19):
Yeah, and especially not being super competitive. I mean, first
half was decently competitive, but this last weekend going to
Montana State, the Cats had a four score lead at
one point in the fourth quarter, and so not being
super competitive down the stretch there could also hurt UC Davis.
And yeah, with that Mercer game, I think like it

(08:40):
doesn't count, you know, either either way, and it hurts
both teams as far as like that's one less Division
one win and a ranked win forever would have won
that game, and I don't think the playoff committee would
because you can't really say, oh, I think UC Davis
would have won that game, or I think Mercer would
have won that game, because there's arguments on both sides.
But what they could do is say, hey, that was

(09:01):
a fifty to fifty game at the end there, and
if we seed Mercer in the top eight or in
the top ten like that in a way reflects well
on UC Davis. But at the same time, like you said,
how you look in week one, week zero, week two
can be different of how you look in you know,
week ten, eleven, and twelve, And U C. Davis is
also in that situation of the same situation as South

(09:24):
Goota State as far as a lot of injuries piling up,
you know, ending the year on a losing streak, So
that could be a factor for UC Davis real quick.
I said earlier, if sax State loses this game, they're
not going to be in the playoffs overall. Would you
agree with that seven and five sax State team gets
left out of the playoffs?

Speaker 2 (09:42):
Yeah, I don't even think they'd be in the first
four out if they lose this game.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
Yeah no, No, really needle moving wins as far as
currently ranked wins. All right, let's go to the brawl
of the wild here at number three Montana States goes
to number two Montana I think, I mean, we can
keep it simple as far as the winner, because the
winner will get the number two seed behind North Gota State.
Let's talk about the loser here if in my opinion,

(10:07):
I think it depends on who loses and how they
lose as far as how far a team drops. If
Montana loses, you know, I could see the Grizz sticking
at the number three spot as far as the playoff
Committee's rankings, because Montana would be eleven and one overall
ten D one wins, they would have a one currently
ranked win over und Now, if Montana State were to lose,

(10:30):
that would be nine and three overall, nine and two
versus the FCS, the Cats would have two ranked wins
over in Northern Arizona and UC Davis. It'd be interesting
to see what happens with Montana State if the Cats
were to lose this game, because you know, you could
stack them up against Lee High, who's probably going to
be in that four spot. If the playoff committee kind

(10:51):
of keeps its consistency and keeps lee High at number four,
nine and three versus twelve and zero, like on paper,
you could say, well, you know, we'll side with Lehigh
a little bit here at twelve and zero, and Lee
High could have two currently ranked wins as well, because
Yale and Lafayette are both currently ranked, and so that's
kind of a nice late addition to the polls for

(11:13):
Lehigh to get a couple of ranked wins on the
resume if Lehigh was able to beat Lafayette at the
same time, though, I mean, Montana State is going to
have a top five strength to schedule, Lee High is
going to be in the upper eighties, I believe as
far as their strength to schedule. And I also think
messaging is it's kind of important here from the playoff
committee because if they said, okay, Montana State, you have

(11:35):
two FCS losses, Lehigh has zero, Like we we just
have to put Lee High ahead of Montana State. Well,
you're kind of encouraging teams to not schedule tough in
the non conference because we've heard commissioners and ad say
a lot and members of the playoff committee that we
need these really strong non conference matchups for better gauges. Well,

(11:56):
if Montana State didn't schedule South go to State and
Montana State you know, beat whoever, you know San Diego
or whoever, and said, and they only have one FCS loss,
would that be enough to keep them ahead of Lee High?
But because they have two FCS losses, does Lehigh jump
them because that have zero FCS losses? So I think
messaging what would kind of be important here of how

(12:18):
much do you really want to punish Montana State for
having two FCS losses, especially if it's a close loss
in Missoula. If it's a blowout, they probably drop a
bit further. But if it's a close game, I mean,
I think you can have an argument for Montana State
to stay in the top three ahead of Lee High
even if they are nine and three overall.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
Yeah, I've been very vocal about if it's a close game,
regardless of who loses, should be at the three seed.
I just don't see a strong art because because here's
here's where you kind of fall into, right Sam, Let's
just say Montana State loses a close game. Well, if
your argument that it's le haas undefeated, you've got to
move them below Leha will Tennessee Text undefeated against CFCs?

(13:01):
Do you move them below Tennessee Tech? Do you move
them below Harvard? Do you move them below? I mean, like,
it gets into some weird stuff, and then like, how
do you compare them to Tarlton? Who I think even
with one loss? I think Charlton technically. I know the
committee has Lehigh ranked above, had Lehigh ranked above Tarlton.

(13:22):
I still think Tarlton might have a better resume than
lehih on paper. So do you move Montana State below them?

Speaker 1 (13:29):
Too? Like?

Speaker 2 (13:29):
And then we get into the conversation of do you
really think Montana State should be the sixth seed? I
don't and I don't. I don't even think Montana fans
would would have you believe that. So I think you
get into a slippery slope when it's just undefeated versus
one ers who lost FCS because, like you said, I
think Montana State went out there and scheduled that South
Dakota State game and it was an overtime game that
came down to what was it half a yard maybe

(13:52):
in that game on that fourth down. And then if
they go on the road to Missoula and lose like
a three point game a seven point game that's compared,
I just don't see how you don't have that team
at three. I will say this for the Big Sky,
I think Montana has a stronger argument to stay at
three than Montana State because they would only have one
FCS loss. Now the question becomes does that does that

(14:14):
none D one game hurt them? Though? Because even even
at ten and one in the FC ten and one
in the FCS, you would still say, well Man Tarlton
didn't go schedule a D two game or in Lehigh
played twelve Division one games? Would that matter? So I
do think that there there's gonna be some weird conversations

(14:36):
because here's here's what I'll say. We've seen other teams
get punished for nine D one games. We saw some
nine win teams get left out of the playoffs. So
if the committee doesn't punish Montana a little bit for
that none D one game. I do think some other
conferences and I think it's a fair conversation that they
would have some gripes with the committee to discuss because
other teams have been punished for scheduling nine D one games,

(14:58):
so why want that same punish It's been a plot
of Montana.

Speaker 1 (15:01):
Yeah, it's it'll be fascinating to see what happens with
with the loser of this game. And I think I've
seen a few people question if like would they really
put Montana in Montana State on the same side of
the bracket at at two and three or would they
just move the loser to four to split them up
a little bit? And two things that would argue that
that you know that that would't happen is one, NBSU

(15:25):
and South Kota State have been on the same side
of the bracket like six times in the last twelve years,
and so there is past precedent there. Also, the Playoff
Committee doesn't really factor in future games, like future potential
matchups to be like, oh, well, Montana and Montana State,
we have them two and three. You know that's a
potential semi final rematch. Well, to avoid that, let's just

(15:45):
move you know, Montana State down to the four spot.
They don't necessarily have that, you know, kind of in
their arsenal as well, to be able to move around
top eight seeds. And unless it's changed, I'm pretty sure
the top eight seeds are locked in. They can't them.
And again, it isn't a group think thing of all right, everyone,
let's talk about the number one seed. Okay, we're all

(16:06):
in agreement here, okay, NDSU. And then they get to
the three seed. All right, guys, who we think in
Lehigh or Montana State for the three seed or Lee
High or Montana for the three seed. And then they
talk about it and eventually they decide, all right, let's
let's go with Lehigh. It's all an individual voting process,
and so it's multi tiered voting, and each committee member
kind of smits their vote just like a top twenty

(16:26):
five ballots for the most part. And you know, once
they get to okay, these are one through eight seeds
due to the voting, those are locked in, they're not
going to say, well, Montana State ended up at the
three spot and Lehigh is the four spot. But let's
let's move those around a little bit to avoid some
potential semi final rematch that's not in their capability to
do that. And so there is absolutely a possibility of

(16:49):
Montana Montana State being on the same side of the
bracket potentially being paired up in the semi finals, which
I mean, I think that'd be pretty dang funk. They've
yet to meet in the playoffs if I remember correct.

Speaker 2 (17:00):
Yeah, that would be a must sy gang. Can you
imagine the environment in December with a national championship appearance
on the line. That would be electric. Sign me up
for that. And like you said, they've done it before.
So I just think because it hasn't happened, maybe that's
where you see the pushback from Montana Montana State fans about, Man,
they won't ever do this because it hasn't happened. But
I think if it's a close game this weekend, that's

(17:22):
what's gonna happen. You're gonna have the winner as a
two and the loser as a three.

Speaker 1 (17:27):
Yep, all right, let's go to the CIA. Now. It
looks like most likely three teams are going to get in.
Rhode Island is nine to two overall, nine and one
versus the FCS. They have one currently ranked win over
New Hampshire Roady if they beat Hampton, and that's a
home game for Roady, a very very favorable game. If
Roady wins, that would secure the CIA auto bid for

(17:49):
the Rams, also would put them in the conversation for
a top eight seed, which would be ten and one
versus the FCS. And you also have Mamath as well,
who could be in the conversation for a top eight seed.
They Momoth is nine and two overall, nine and one
versus the FCS, and they have one currently ranked win
over Villanova. They're one loss. They're one FCS losses to

(18:10):
New Hampshire. Villanova is also out there as well, probably
very likely not going to be a top eight seed,
but potentially could be a top sixteen seed. Villanova is
eight and two overall and eight and one versus the FCS.
They also have one currently ranked win over in New Hampshire.
Kind of interesting, Actually, I didn't really consider this right away.
Villanova hosts Sacred Heart, and Sacred Heart is an independent

(18:33):
team right now. The Pioneers are eight and three overall
with seven d one wins. If Sacred Heart beats Villanova
and all of a sudden they're at nine and three
with eight d one wins and head to head win
over top ten Villanova, Like, how do you not put
an independent Sacred Heart team in the playoffs at that point?
I do think Villanova has a good chance to win

(18:55):
and then if but you know, if Nova was able
to win at nine nine one wins, one ranked win,
I think Villanova has a chance at a top sixteen seed.
So you know, a couple of other teams to keep
in mind here as well. William and Mary could potentially
hit it's eighth eighth win if it beat rival Richmond,
but there's no currently ranked wins for William and Mary.

(19:18):
It also has a head to head loss over New
Hampshire and New Hampshire it is another team that potentially
could be considered in the playoff at large discussion. If
New Hampshire beats Maine, that would get New Hampshire to
eight eight and four overall eight and three versus the
FCS with that head to head win over Mammuth. Now
an eight win New Hampshire team while having maybe a
decent argument to get in as an at large bid.

(19:41):
They have a head to head loss over Dartmouth, who
could potentially be another eight win team. And so to me,
I have a hard time seeing William and Mary getting
in New Hampshire. Maybe if if some results go their way.
But to me, we're probably looking at Mammouth, Villanova and
Roady getting in from the CIA.

Speaker 2 (20:01):
Yeah, those are the three I have, and like you said,
this is why I don't have the other two. William
and Married no ranked wins, and you lost to New Hampshire,
which means New Hampster is probably going to get in
with the same record over you. And then the reason
I say no to New Hampshire is how do you
not put Dartmouth in over them at eight and two?

(20:21):
I think if if if a spot opens up and
it comes down to New Hampshire Dartmouth, you give Dartmouth
the edge there, absolutely, and especially because I mean, what
would New Hampshire's best win? I mean my myth. But
again the committee takes a into account injuries. How impressed
a visit without Derrick Ropert? Is it the same without
Derrick Roperson? Maybe I don't know how they would look

(20:44):
at that, but that would be interesting if they said, man, well,
new Hampshire has the best overall win, so we're just
gonna going to ignore the head to head against Dartmouth,
who has the same amount of D one wins, so
that that would be where it gets tricky. I actually
think Main would be a pretty quality win for them.
Main's actually not bad this year. People have kind of

(21:04):
overlooked how good that team's been up until last week.
I thought they had a chance to get into the
playoffs as well. But I'm with you. I think Villanova
of Rhode Island, Mammoth all are going to have a
chance to get in, and if they all win this weekend, Sam,
I think they're all pretty much outside. I mean Villanova
is still kind of maybe fifty to fifty. I have
Villanova personally as the sixteen seed, and our projections they're

(21:25):
the last top sixteen seed. But I think there's a
good chance all three of those teams are going to
be locks for top sixteen seeds as long as they
win this weekend, especially Rhode Island and Mammoth, because I
think they're probably going to be in the conversation, Like
you said, maybe for a top eight seed, but somewhere
in that nine to twelve range, like one of the
top four of those next eight seeds.

Speaker 1 (21:44):
Yeah, May I should mention is six and five right now,
overall six and three versus the FCS, if they are
able to get a ranked win over in New Hampshire. Here,
you know, Main, you know, very very likely is not
going to get in the playoffs. But if you hit
seven wins, seven d one wins, you'll at least kind
of be in that consideration. But you know, Maine as

(22:04):
at least put itself somewhat in that conversation. But they
are kind of outer outer bubble right now. You mentioned
Roady and Momoth. If both of them win to hit
ten wins, do you think either of them gets into
the top eight and get a first round by Both
would have kind of similar resumes. They'd be ten and
two overall ten and one versus the FCS. Both would

(22:27):
have one currently ranked win. I kind of lean Momth
as probably the more likely to get a higher seat
because I really like their win over at Villa Nova.
Rody's ranked win is over New Hampshire, who is just
barely in the poll. I think they're like number twenty
five or something in the coach's poll and then not
ranked in the media poll or it could be vice versa.
But do you feel anyway about Rody or Momoth potentially

(22:51):
getting a top eight seed.

Speaker 2 (22:53):
Not without some help. I think they would need like
Tennessee Tech or Harvard to lose. That would be because
because I think Mercer's probably going to lose this weekend Alvern,
but I don't think that's going to penalize them. And
I don't know how you feel. I think Mercers should
be a lot for a top eight seed. That team
is playing just as good as anybody else in the

(23:13):
country right now, and says Atkinson's got made the move
a quarterback, they should get a top eight seed, So
I think they need some help. I'm with you. I
think Mamth would be my pick if someone was going
to get it. So like in our projections, we have
Mamth at nine in Rhode Island at ten, just behind Mercer,
So like, I think they're going to be right there
and I would lean Mamoth. I do wonder though Derek

(23:36):
Robertson's still not back, how much does that impact where
the committee puts them and what's his status going to
be for the playoffs?

Speaker 1 (23:43):
Yeah, I mean if he comes back this week and
he throws for four hundred yards.

Speaker 2 (23:47):
You know that could Yeah, that's a conversation to have
because he's good, yep, yep.

Speaker 1 (23:51):
And I mean even Frankie Weaver, he's he's been playing
pretty well for the most part too as well. Be
at Derek Robertson would just kind of hit hit a
little different for the playoff from all right, let's go
to the IVY League now, I mean there are different
scenarios where, you know, three IVY League teams would at
least have a good argument to get into the playoff bracket.
And we'll start with number eight Harvard. They're going to Yale,

(24:16):
who's number twenty five, and the coaches pull this is
you know, one of the most historic rivalries in all
of college football. This is straight up for the auto
bid as well, because Harvard is six and oho in
IVY League play, Yale is five and one, and so
if Yale were to win, they'd get the auto bid.
And if that were to happen, Harvard would still very
likely get an at large bid, And so for the

(24:36):
IVY League to get multiple bids, you know, Yale beating
Harvard would probably be its best route to go there. Now,
if Yale loses, it would finish seven and three overall,
probably wouldn't make the playoffs. In that scenario, then Harvard
would be ten and oh with an argument to be
a top eight seed. But you also have Dartmouth hanging
out as well. In Dartmouth right now is seven and two.

(24:57):
They play they go to Brown, which you know she
could be a good game, but maybe you favorite Dartmouth there.
If Dartmouth were to win eight and two overall, two
ranked wins, two currently ranked wins, because New Hampshire and
Yale have kind of slipped into the rankings now in
the last couple of weeks. So in that scenario, I
mean an eight and two Dartmouth team with the head

(25:18):
to head win over Yale, I mean they would also
have an argument to get in. And so it seems
maybe the most likely scenario is Harvard wins, gets the
auto bid and then it's between you know, does Dartmouth
get the second bid or do they get left out?
But there's also that scenario of Yale beating Harvard. So
Yale's automatically in, Harvard still has an argument to get in,

(25:40):
and then Dartmouth is sitting there going, well, we have
eight wins and the head to head win over Yale,
why aren't we in as well? So there could be
a few different scenarios that play out here in the
IVY League.

Speaker 2 (25:49):
The bad part is is if Yale beats Harvard, I
think Yale takes the at large, I mean I think
Yale's auto bid, and then Harvard moving into the large
big category, it would push Startmouth out. Yeah, it would
be really hard to get in.

Speaker 1 (26:05):
Yeah. It three seems like a lot for the IVY
League for the in this first year.

Speaker 2 (26:08):
Because because what else would have to happen? I mean,
would you need like in Au to potentially lose to
get them in. I'm just trying to think of like
bubble teams that could potentially lose, because the problem is
there's a ton of bubble teams that play right. So
if so, like if North Dakota South Dakota State, obviously
we both of us think and we'll get to the
Missouri Valley, but like the winner of that one's a

(26:29):
lot the loser might be out. But so that game
doesn't really help you. Would you need like Lamar or
Southeast and Louisianaity get upset to potentially get you in
and that's is there a path for three? I mean,
I think you would need a ton of chaos and
you would also need none of the other chaos scenarios
to happen.

Speaker 1 (26:47):
Right, Yeah, they would need a lot of bubble help
for sure for to get to get three teams in.
But they'll they will at least potentially have three teams
with arguments to get in, which you know, for the
IVY League, I think is exciting to see to have
them in that conversation for playoff positioning. Real quick. On
the MEAC, I know there are a couple of eight
win teams right now. We have South Carolina States and

(27:11):
Delaware States eight and three overall, both four and zero
in the MEAC, and so the winner will advance to
the Celebration Bowl. You know, I don't see either of
these teams getting in that large bid with eight overall wins,
especially because Delaware State only has six D one wins
if they were to lose, and then if South Carolina
State were to lose, they would have only seven D

(27:31):
one wins. Neither of them have ranked victories, and so
you know, the winner off to the Celebration Bowl. Loser.
I really don't see having an argument for and at
large bid that same thing with n C Central. They
could potentially hit eight wins if they go to Morgan State,
but kind of the same thing. There's a non D
one win in there, so n C Central in this
scenario only seven D one wins, no ranked wins. They

(27:53):
also have a head to head loss in New Hampshire,
who could be a bubble team. Plus they have a
head to head losses to Delaware State and sc State.
Essentral is even less likely to make the playoffs than
the loser of Bessie State versus Delaware States, and even
the loser there doesn't have a good chance to make
it in. But I still figured I would throw them
in into the conversation, you know, in case people were
wondering and they see pay an eight win team, the

(28:14):
me act like, do they have a chance. It seems
very very low.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
Zero it's zero. I think Delaware States lost to Sacred
Heart probably ended their chances, and South Carolina States upset
loss to Charleston Southern is probably going to keep them out.
So I think if you flip those games, there's a
different conversation if they get to non wins, But I
think those two out of conference losses probably ended the conversation.

Speaker 1 (28:39):
Yep, all right. Now to the Missouri Valley Football Conference NDSU.
They host Saint Thomas, so that should be rather a
decisive win the Bison. I mean, they have such a
good resume eleven and o six currently ranked wins. I
think no one else has more than four ranked wins,
and so the Bison, they just have a loaded resume
locked in for that that number one seed, number twenty

(29:00):
four Southern Illinois goes to number eleven Illinois States. A
really interesting game here. I think even with the win
Southern Illinois, unfortunately it's probably out. They're six and five
right now. They only have five D one wins, no
currently ranked victories. So even if this Lukies were able
to get a ranked win at Illinois State, I just
have a hard time scene six DY one wins getting in.

(29:22):
On the flip side, I think Illinois State potentially could
play its way into a top eight seed, or at
least be like have a healthy argument to be a
top eight seed, because if Illinois State won, they'd be
nine and three overall, nine and two versus the FCS,
and they would have three ranked wins. South Dakota South
Kota State in southern Illinois. Do you see just let's

(29:42):
just say Illinois State wins this game, which they will
be favored to do. So, do you see the Red
Birds potentially getting into that to those top eight seeds.

Speaker 2 (29:51):
No, I just I don't see a path to a
top eight seed. I still think that. I mean, they'd
obviously be a lot for a top sixteen. I just
I think the race for those top eight is going
to be so tight that I don't I just don't.
I don't see the resume there. Like I still want
put them over Mammoth. I still want put them over
even Rhode Island without a quality win, And I wouldn't

(30:13):
put them over Mercer Like if they're going to make
a run for a top eight seed, they need like
the ultimate chaos to happen. And so that's why I
would say probably not for Illinois State getting a top
eight seed. But I do think they can make a
push for one of the higher of the nine to
sixteen seeds if if they're available. The other problem is too,
like what happens if you do you have them above?

(30:34):
You see Davis? If you see Davis beats Sacramento State
this weekend, I don't know, would you have them over
Steven f Austin, who's won ten consecutive games. And then
I think the other conversation is what you put Illinois
State over. And even an Abilene Christian who you mentioned
ranked wins, they have four right right there behind North
Dakota State with the second most. So I just think

(30:55):
the path to a top eight seeds a little bit
too much to Illinois State. But I'll be honest with you, Sam,
I think I mean, is there a potential that they're
a lot regardless of what happens this weekend?

Speaker 1 (31:05):
It seems so yeah, even with the loss, I mean,
they'd be Illinois State would be at eight wins. I
still have a couple of ranked wins, so it seems
like they're in regardless of what happens. And yeah, a
part of me, I think with bracketology, like when you
lock in on a team that's at least in the
conversation to be a top eight seed, and like you
really try to focus in on them and their resume,

(31:26):
like you kind of find yourself like arguing, Okay, this
team definitely deserves to be a top eight seed. But
then you get to the next team and you're like, well, well,
this team also deserves to be a top eight seed,
and like, I have Illinois State and Mercer right next
to each other right now, and they both would finish
with nine Division one wins. Illinois State would have three
more currently ranked wins. They would also have a much
tougher strength to schedule. And so with that said, you

(31:48):
kind of go, well, resume wise, Illinois State should be
seeded ahead of Mercer at the same time. And I
know the Playoff Committee doesn't utilize the media and coaches poll,
but all of these committee members are are ads, and
they are very familiar with, you know, with what the
polls say, and even if they don't use them, it
seems like more often than not, the Playoff Committee is

(32:11):
kind of in the same line as you know, the polls.
And you can even say that about the media and
coaches polls, like obviously two very different you know, voting members,
but it seems like, more often than the not, the
media poll and the coaches poll for the most part,
kind of lining up as far as which twenty five
twenty seven teams you know are in there, who's in
the top ten and all that, and so it usually
seems like the Playoff Committee's way of thinking at least

(32:35):
falls in line with the way the polls are looking
as well. You know. Plus, I mean, I know, like
individual committee members kind of have freedom to look at
what they want. And I can't remember what committee chair
I was talking to in a previous podcast in previous years,
but ask them about like not using either of the polls,
and that committee member said, or maybe it was the
chair said, like, well, I have my own spreadsheet too,

(32:56):
and I do factor in you know, ranked wins, and
so I do use the polls, you know, in that situation.
And so they do still kind of use the polls
in a way. But that kind of ties me back
into the Illinois State versus Mercer arguments of on paper,
Illinois State has a better resume, but in the polls,
Mercer is four, if not five spots ahead of Illinois State,

(33:17):
And so with the Playoff Committee bump Illinois State ahead
of Mercery and the seeds, that's kind of the balance.
I'm trying to strect it to figure out where to
see these teams.

Speaker 2 (33:27):
Yeah, I just don't think people understand how tight these
conversations really get with and they're different conversations right, So
because me and you both do bracketology, it's tight for
the top eight seeds, it gets tighter for the nine
to sixteen seeds, and then it gets even tighter when
you get down to the bubble. And I think people

(33:47):
need to understand, like how difficult it really is because
you try to be fair with what you value across
each level when you're trying to put all this together.
But then, man, like, I don't think people understand how
hard it, like how tight it really comes down to where, Yeah,
maybe we're using ranked wins to determine who gets to
twelve versus the thirteen or fourteen seed, But then if

(34:10):
that's all equal when we get to the bottom, we
might have to go to strength to schedule, we might
have to use injuries, we might have to use head
to head, like it just kind of depends, like it's
dependent on the matchup when like the teams are being ranked.
And I don't know how you feel, but you get
this a lot, and I'll at least I get it
a lot. I don't know how much you get it,
but man, well that team hasn't beat anybody. Well, yeah,

(34:30):
like you'll you'll find out when you start putting your
bracketology together, there's a lot of teams that haven't beaten,
you know, anybody. If we're using the standard of some
big sky and Valley fans man, there's a ton of
teams in this field stand that have not beat anybody.
And so where do you go behind that? Where I
think a lot of the times people get caught up

(34:50):
on ranked wins when there's so many other metrics to consider.
And then also too, we talked to the playoff committee
earlier this year, or the head of the committee, and
it sounds like odd test matters a whole lot to them,
And so how does their eye test compared to minor yours.
That's really really hard to kind of formulate when when
putting this bracketology together, because me and you could watch

(35:12):
a games them and have two completely different takeaways. And
so you have so many people in that committee room,
there's no way they sit down and watch these games
and there's a consistent opinion on who's the best team
in the country.

Speaker 1 (35:25):
Yeah, yeah, there, I mean there is most teams when
it comes to playoff positioning or in the playoff discussion,
most teams either have one ranked win or no ranked wins.
Like there there aren't a whole lot of teams with
multiple ranked wins. And I mean you can look at
like Dartmouth has two ranked wins right now, Northern Arizona
has zero. Does that mean Dartmouth is a better team
than Northern Arizona? Like maybe for some committee members, their

(35:49):
eyes will tell them something different, and you know, it's
kind of like the clashing narrative of like if a
if a fan of a team that on paper has
a better resume or more ranked wins than another team,
but then they ask, like, why do you have you know,
this other team ranked higher, and they say the eye test.
You know, they'll say, well, that's that's biased, Like you
know on paper that you should just go off on paper,

(36:09):
But if it's flipped, you know, other fans will say, well,
you know, football games aren't one on paper. You have
to you know, watch games with your eye. So it's
kind of the it's kind of the the same thing
as like when it comes to like ranking best players,
like some will say, well, numbers don't lie, and then
other fans will say, well, you're just staring at this
at the box score, and there's more behind it than
than just the numbers, and so it's kind of the

(36:29):
classy narratives and it kind of just depends on where
their team or their favorite player kind of lies on
that side of the argument. A couple of teams here
number eighteen Youngstown State gost in Northern Iowa, Youngstown State
seven and four overall seven and three versus the FCS
two currently ranked wins over Illinois State and Southern Illinois.
You know, really have to avoid an upset loss here,

(36:51):
but Youngstown State should be able to go to Northern
Iowa get a win, they would for sure be in
with eight wins. South Dakota has a buye this week.
That's kind of just how the Yoats and their schedule
kind of played out. But they played themselves into the
playoff bracket this last weekend in a crazy I think
it was a five overtime win at Southern Illinois that
gets the Ooats to eight and four overall eight and

(37:13):
three versus the FCS three currently ranked wins over un
D South Kota State and SIU. South Dakota has a
really strong argument not only to get into the field,
but also be in the conversation for a top sixteen seeds.
So those ones are pretty straightforward. South Dakota is in
Youngstown State for sure, is in if they get a
win at Northern Iowa. The one that has a lot

(37:33):
at stake is number twenty two South Kota State going
to number thirteen UND. Southcota State seven and four overall,
two ranked wins over Montana State and Youngstown State, but
they are on a four game losing streak with Chase
Mason still sidelined with an injury. And then you have UND,
who was also seven and four overall, but seven and
three versus the FCS. The Fighting Hawks have two currently

(37:55):
ranked wins over Youngstown State and Southern Illinois. They also
have multiple losses to South Dakota and North Kota State
and Montana along with Kansas State, so they have kind
of the quality losses quality performances in losses, however you
want to phrase it to me. I mean, the winner

(38:15):
is obviously in right eight and four, you get your
third ranked win, you're probably seated somewhere in the top
sixteen for the loser. I think if UND loses this game,
they have a better shot at getting into the playoffs
with seven wins rather than a seven wins South Kota
State team. Because U and D would have those tight
losses to highly ranked teams, they would have the number
two overall strength of schedule, plus a couple of ranked

(38:36):
wins for the South Gooda State side of things, I mean,
they lose this game, You're on a five game skid,
You're three and five in value play. If the committee
wants to look at overall body of work, they could
stack a seven wins Southcota State team versus some other
seven and eight win teams and say, yeah, the Jacks
have their overall body of work. But you also have
to factor and player availability. I mean four or five

(38:59):
all comfort level players are out, including Chase Mason. Whether
he returns this week or not, we'll have to see.
But I also think how you're playing down the stretch
factors in. So what do you make of this matchup
and seven win U and D team? Do you think
they're in? Seven wins South Kota State team? Do you
think they'd be in?

Speaker 2 (39:19):
I have kind of changed my tune earlier this week
I said seven when North Dakota's probably in. I don't
know if that's necessarily necessarily the case. I do think
they would have a better argument to get in than
South Dakota State would if they lost this game. But
again with like on the South Dakota State side of things, Sam,
if you like, I understand how good the resume looks.

(39:42):
But I even wrote this earlier this week, that team
that beat Montana State doesn't exist anymore. It doesn't exist anymore.
There's been too many injuries. The momentum has completely shifted.
That team that beat Montana State is not on the
field wearing wearing those same in that same helmet anymore.

(40:02):
And if we allow the committee to put in a
team at seven and five with a losing record in conference,
we have lost the plot on what the playoffs are
supposed to be, especially if you leave out like a
and we'll get to this team. I've seen people say
that South Dakota State should get in over a nine
and two Southeast Louisiana. If we leave out a nine
to one against the FCS team for a seven and

(40:26):
five team with a losing conference record, the FCS playoffs
are not here to determine who's the best team in
the country then, because there's no way you can argue
that they belong. And I'm kind of with some of
the Jacks fans I've heard I don't think Chase Mace
is coming back at this point. I just have a
weird feeling that he's not going to be healthy enough
to play. And if they don't have him, along with
Chase Fantle, along with Ogrosky and some of the other pieces,

(40:49):
they're just not a playoff team right now, especially if
they lose this weekend on the road. And I think
for North Dakota, this is how tight the bubble is is.
I think the winner of this team stam might have
an argument for a top sixteen seed, and if you lose,
you're out of the bracket. That's how tight the bubble
is this year, adding the IVY League game and adding
a twelfth game. So I'm with you. I think the

(41:10):
winners a lot. The loser, if it's North Dakota, will
have an argument to be in because of those close losses.
And I think if South Dakota State loses, they're one
of the first four teams out.

Speaker 1 (41:21):
Yeah, that's gonna be really really interesting to see how
that how that plays out. It's with probably it seems
like for sure five teams from the Valley getting in
and then Seller and Illinois probably not gonna be in,
but there's gonna be a six team in the valley
that is either going to be I would guess the
last four in or the first four out. So it'll
be interesting to see what happens come on on selection Sunday. There.

(41:43):
All right, let's go to these next few will be
pretty quick. The NEEC gonna be a one bid league
Central Connecticut State. They can clinch the ouddle bid with
a win, or if they lose and Ducane also loses
to Robert Morris, CCSU would still get the ouddle bid there.
Ducane couldn't get the out of bid with the win
at Robert Morris and a Central Connecticut State loss because

(42:05):
Ducane would have to head head head to head advantage there.
So the NEC probably will get. Whoever wins that conference
will probably most likely get fed into a seeded CAA
team you know, just based off regionalization going to the
OBC Big South. Another potential bid stealer here because UT

(42:26):
Martin goes to number six Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech is
ten and one overall nine and oversus. The FCS with
nine dy one wins. Doesn't have any current current ranked
wins for Tennessee Tech. But if they do beat UT Martin,
it seems Tennessee Tech is likely to get a seeded
a seeded seed somewhere in the top eight seeds. I
would say now, if UT Martin pulls off the upsets,

(42:49):
UT Martin would actually get the OBC Big South Autal
Bay because UT Martin would finish seven and one in
league play. Tennessee Tech would also finish seven and one
in OBC Big South place. If you're a bubble team,
you absolutely do not want to see UT Martin win
that game because that would turn the OBC Big South
into a two bid league. If UT Martin loses this game,

(43:09):
they would only have six wins, and so there isn't
really a chance for UT Martin to get in at
large bid. Another team to keep an eye on in
this league is Gardner Webb, who is seven and four
overall right now seven and two versus the FCS. They
don't have any currently ranked wins, but they did beat
Western Carolina earlier this year. Gardner Webb also played Tennessee

(43:31):
Tech pretty close. If they beat Western Illinois this weekend,
they would get to eight Division one wins. It doesn't
seem like that would be enough to get into the
playoff bracket, but they would at least be in the
discussion in at large bid. So what do you make
of these different scenarios in the OBC Big South.

Speaker 2 (43:49):
Yeah, I got Gardner Webb on the outside looking in. Regardless,
they're going to need a ton of help to get in.
And if any of these bid thief scenarios happen, I
don't think they even have a shot to maybe even
in the first four out. Yeah, so go ahead.

Speaker 1 (44:05):
You can finish up. I was gonna move on to
the Patriot League.

Speaker 2 (44:08):
Oh yeah, and then real quick man. Ut Martin has
been playing really well in conference play and that game
is going to be way trickier for Tennessee Tech than
people expect. We keep a very very strong eye on
ut Martin Tennessee Tech this weekend.

Speaker 1 (44:20):
Yeah, U T Martin just always seems to be hanging
hanging out there and potentially could make some noise. And
you mentioned bid thief, and that I mean brings me
right into the Patriot League because this is potentially another
bid thief, which where we have number four Lehigh going
to number twenty four Lafayette. This is another historical rivalry

(44:40):
in in the FCS. Lee High right now is eleven
to zero versus the FCS. They have one currently ranked
win over Yale. And then you have Lafayette, who is
eight and three overall. They're eight and one versus the
FCS no currently ranked wins. Both of these teams are
undefeated in Patriot League play. So if Lafayette is able
to pull off the upsets and they are at home here,
all of a sudden, Lafayette gets the gets the outle bid,

(45:02):
and Lee High is certainly in at large bid in
this scenario. Now, if and that turns the Patriot League
into a multi bid conference with two teams in Now,
if the opposite happens, where Lee High wins, you know,
Lee High would have would be twelve to zero and
they would have two currently ranked wins over Lafayette, and
Yale probably gets them somewhere in the top five seeds.

(45:23):
In the scenario, Lafayette would be at eight Division one wins,
eight and four overall, eight and two versus the FCS,
no currently ranked wins. I don't it kind of similar
to Garner web. I don't see an eight win Lafayette
team getting into the playoffs in this scenario. So again,
if you're a bubble team, you want to see Tennessee
Tech win, and you want to say you want to
see Lee High win, because if upsets happen in these

(45:45):
two leagues all of a sudden, that's two more at
large bids that are that are out there going to
Lee High in Tennessee Tech if they were to lose
in upset losses.

Speaker 2 (45:54):
Yeah, and if both happen, everything me and Sam just
talked about for an hour doesn't matter, because.

Speaker 1 (46:00):
Yeah, Northern Arizona, Northern Arizona's probably out there this.

Speaker 2 (46:03):
Yeah, Northern Arizona, UC Davis, South Dakota State, North Dakota, Like,
this would be a nightmare scenario for those converces real quick.
Kind of combining these, If Lehigh and Tennessee Tech lose,
do you think do you think both remain a top
eight seed or do you think they fall into the
nine to sixteen range.

Speaker 1 (46:21):
I think I think they both probably fall out of
the seeds for some reason. I got I just feel
like Tennessee Tech is more likely to fall out of
the top eight, and then maybe Lehigh goes from four
to eight, So maybe Lehigh could could stick in the
top eight if they were to lose just it just
kind of seems like the playoff committee it is pretty
high on on Lee High. But if they either of

(46:42):
them lose, it kind of seems like both or at
least one would for sure move out of the top
eight and that would that would make room for a
Harvard Illinois State mercer like maybe Roady could move into
like one of those teams. I guess if you're one
of those teams, like, maybe you want to see an
upset happen here because you're already in and this could
potentially make you move up in the seeding. But if

(47:03):
you're a bubble team, yeah, you definitely don't want to
see an upset happen in these two conferences.

Speaker 2 (47:08):
One more go ahead, love us. I agree. I think
Tennessee Tech falls to like nine to twelve. I do
think LEHA falls similar to how we saw Furman and
falls into that like seven to eight range when they
lost to Wafford yep, yep.

Speaker 1 (47:22):
And you go from hosting a quarterfinal game to you
going to like NBSU or Montana. Yeah, be a pretty
tough follow right there. Pioneer Football League one bid league,
especially with you know, Presbyterian was kind of hanging out there,
but they suffer their second loss in league play. Drake
controls his own destiny right now. They're six and one
in league standings. Presbyterian and San Diego are five and two,

(47:45):
So all Drake has to do is win, which they
probably should against Morehead State, especially at home, and then
they clinched the auto bid. If Drake loses, there are
multiple different tiebreaker scenarios that I won't you know, I
won't try to try to unfold all those tiebreaker scenarios
if that were to happen. But Drake controls his own destiny.

(48:05):
With the win, they are in the playoffs, all right
to the silicon now, I mean last week, at this
time we said, okay, Mercer definitely in obviously locked up
the auto bid, potentially a top eight seed. Western Carolina
just don't get upset beat ETSU, beat VMI. Western Carolina
probably has a decent chance to get in at eight wins.

(48:27):
Well the solicon kind of silicon here, and Western Carolina
allows fifty plus points to Etsu. They lose, and so
Western Carolina six and five right now don't have any
currently ranked wins. They go to VM, I I mean,
should be a win and if you get to seven
wins Western Carolina, you're probably still not making the playoffs,
but you're at least in that conversation. But then you

(48:48):
also kind of Etsu that has put itself in the
conversation as well. Etsu hosts the Citadel this weekend. With
a win there, they would be seven and four or
seven and four versus the FCS seven and five overall,
no currently ranked wins. But the Etsu did knock Western
Carolina out of the rankings this last weekend, and I
mean Etsu. They lost to West Georgia by four, They

(49:10):
lost the Mercer by four. I don't think a seven
win ETSU team gets into the playoffs, but they at
least put themselves in the conversation for the playff committee
to at least give them in that large bid. But
in your opinion, it seems, I mean, maybe there are
a lot of different results that could go the Silcon's way,
but it seems like the Soilcon is once again going

(49:30):
to be a one bid league.

Speaker 2 (49:32):
Yeah, no chance. I don't even Like. I was talking
next to someone for the SoCon today as we were recording,
and I told them, I was say, I can't even
offer you a realistic playoff scenario to get Western in
the field. Yeah, I don't even know what would have
to happen, But you mentioned Etsu sim you mentioned all
those games they lost close, they were beating West Georgia
of the entire game, they had a double digit lead

(49:55):
over Mercer in the fourth quarter, a double digit lead
over Chattanooga in the fourth quarter. What a season that
could have been for Healey in that first year staff
if they just have a few games go the opposite direction. Man,
like you said, the SoCon has so con completely this year.

Speaker 1 (50:09):
Yeah, Mercer goes to Auburn this weekend. Be interesting to
see kind of what Mercer does, Like how I.

Speaker 2 (50:16):
Mean, everybody bench, everybody, please don't get hurt playing in
SEC school.

Speaker 1 (50:22):
You gotta stay healthy. Even at the same time, like
those players, I mean, they for sure want to play,
you know, in that game just to show what they
can do, and you know it helps with with their film,
whether it's their NFL film or you know, especially getting
plucked by some power for school. So interesting to see
what they what they do there. But obviously a likely
loss for Mercer that would drop them to nine and
two overall, they would be nine to one versus the

(50:43):
FCS and currently on a nine game winning streak, no
currently ranked wins, but they did beat Western Carolina, Like
I said a couple of weekends ago, that was a
ranked win at the time, a decent strength to schedule.
I think I want to say it's it's in the fifties.
Do you think we've already kind of touched on this already,
but just in case some people maybe fast forwarded to
the silicon part of it. Mercer top eight seed, a

(51:06):
pretty decent chance. How are you feeling there?

Speaker 2 (51:08):
I would have them an eight personally. Now. I do
think it's going to be interesting if the committee feels
the same way, especially because at the end of the day,
I know Atkinson didn't play, they did lose the Presbyterian,
and do they give momth the benefit of the doubt
because their loss was without their starting quarterback and Derek Robertson.
Now I don't think Akison played in that Presbyterian game,

(51:30):
but it's still not the same losing your starting quarterback
midseason the injury and making a quarterback change like Mercer did,
and they have the win of Revilla Nova, which is
probably better than any when Mercer has, so I do
think it's not a lock. But for me, iye, test wise,
Mercers should be a top eight seed.

Speaker 1 (51:46):
Yeah, that's the like eye test wise. I agree. It's
just I'm interested to see how the committee weighs that
eye test versus resume is because Mercer would have, you know,
one less win than Rhode Island and Momoth and both
those teams have a ranked win. They would have one
less win than Harvard, and Harvard would have a ranked win.
I've already talked about Illinois State and Mercer comparisons. Both

(52:08):
would be both would have nine FCS wins, but Illinois
State would have three currently ranked wins compared to Mercer zero,
plus a stronger strength of schedule. So I mean I
have I'm pretty sure I moved Mercer up a spot.
So in my personal top twenty five ballot, I think
I have Mercer six or seven. But then when I
start looking at resumes, I'm like, well, I don't know
if Mercer is going to be a top eight seat

(52:28):
or not. So we'll see what the playoff Committee does
with that. With Mercer obviously, but I do think they
have probably fifty five to sixty percent chance of getting
a first round by all right, A couple more conferences. Here,
let's go to the Southland. We have number fourteen SFA
going to Northwestern State. SFA has already clinched the auto bid.

(52:49):
They're nine and two overall eight and one versus the
FCS eight D one wins, one currently ranked victory over Lamar.
SFA should win, and in that scenario they would get
to ten wins overall. Nichols go to number twenty one
Southeastern Louisiana. Southeastern eight and three overall eight one versus
the FCS no currently ranked wins. There should be a
win for Southeastern Louisiana, although you know a ravalry game,

(53:11):
you never know what happens there. Then you have mcne's
going to number nineteen Lamar. Lamar is eight and three
overall eight and two versus the FCS two currently ranked
wins over USD and Southeastern. There should also be another
win for Lamar. So in my opinion, you know SFA
gonna win automatically. In any ways, if they do win,

(53:31):
potentially a top sixteen seed. Lamar also for sure should
be in with a win at nine and two versus
the FCS two currently ranked wins, I think those are
pretty much locked in for the most part. I will
ask you about Southeastern though, if they get an expected
win nine and one versus the FCS, no currently ranked wins,
does that get them into the playoffs?

Speaker 2 (53:53):
Listen, I think they. I think if if everybody wins
this weekend, the Southlands should get three teams in. Like
I said earlier, Man, if we're leaving a team that
went nine and one against the FCS, that did not
go out and schedule any Division two games. But as
a program, said me, and you have talked about Southeast
Louisiana that if you know the I would say the

(54:15):
structure of that athletic program, they have to play two
money games a year. They just have to because the
state of Louisiana is different. I don't think we should
penalize them for that. And they went out and it's
been a team historically that is not afraid to go
out and schedule. Man, they were scheduling some killer out
of conference games. Just the one year that they're out
of conference games just did pan out. Like they thought,
nine in one against the FCS should get you in.

(54:37):
So I think there, I think they should be in.
And I have them as one of the last four
in and I think Lamar at nine and three with
wins over South Dakota and Southeast Louisiana should be in
as well. So I think the South Land this year
should be a three team a three team conference.

Speaker 1 (54:53):
Yeah, real quick. On the Swack here kind of similar
to the MIAC in case people are curious, A if
you finish seconds in your your SWACK division, you are
you would be eligible for a playoff at large bid.
But you know, in this situation right now, where in
the Swack East you have Jackson State and Alabama States
both eight and two overall, they both only have seven

(55:15):
D one wins, neither of them have ranked wins, and
they're both six and one in the Swack East. Jackson
State does own the head to head win over Alabama
State and so all JSU has to do is win.
I mean, they face Alcorn State this weekend at home,
and then Jackson State would advance to the SWACK Championship game.
Alabama States, you know, they would be at eight overall wins,

(55:38):
potentially nine overall wins if they do win this weekend.
But they do play in the Turkey Day Classic, which
is November twenty seventh, So in this situation, you know
Alabama State wouldn't be able to play in the playoffs
because they're already playing that week. Now, if somehow Jackson
State loses, Alabama State wins, then Jackson State would you know,
at least be in that conversation for getting in that

(55:58):
large bid with you know, with at eight and three overall,
but they would only have seven D one wins, no
ranked wins. So I'll toss it to you. I mean, obviously,
like I said, Alabama State can't play in the playoffs.
Jackson State would maybe at least get looked at if
they didn't advance to the SWACK Championship. But I don't
really see jsu's resume having a good argument to get in.

Speaker 2 (56:18):
Yeah, zero chance. Again, you know, I don't see it
happening at all.

Speaker 1 (56:22):
Yep. Same. We still got to break it down though,
because I've gotten questions about that, about that possibility. All right,
last one here, let let's go to the UAC real quick.
We have Austin p going to number five Tarlton State Tarleton.
If they win, probably will be somewhere in the top
five seeds because Tarleton would then be eleven and one overall.
FBS win over Army and then one currently ranked win

(56:43):
over West Georgia Austin P. Let's just in this scenario,
let's say Austin P loses, they would they would finish
seven and five overall, but they would have a ranked
win over West Georgia. They would also have a win
over Middle Tennessee, who's an FBS program. I mean, if
Austin P wins this game, they're obviously in at eight
and four. But if they lose at seven and five,

(57:04):
do you see Austin P getting into the playoff bracket
with seven wins?

Speaker 2 (57:09):
No, I don't believe so. I think it would be
a really, really tough argument and a tough path to
get them in at seven to five. But like you said,
if they win, the conversation shifts, and I do think
they're going to have a strong case to potentially get
in if they win.

Speaker 1 (57:23):
Yep, Tarleton State. If they win, do you think probably
the five seed or is there a chance that the
playoff committee looks at Tarleton versus Lehigh a little bit
closer and they flip flop Tarleton and Lee High. Because
I'm with you, like I've had Tarleton ranked ahead of
Lee High, I've also had Tarleton ahead of Lehigh in
my first bracketology. But then the PLAANFF committee came out

(57:45):
their rankings and I'm like, well, they're they're They're higher
on Lehigh than Tarleton State, So what do you make
of Tarleton? If they win? Where are they at in
the top five?

Speaker 2 (57:53):
If I was on the committee, Charlton would be the four,
potentially the three, depending on how the brawl turned out.
But I do think because the committee already set the
expectation is I mean, you mentioned it like Lafayette is
not a bad win, So I just don't know if
there's a big enough difference between Austin p and Lafayette
as a win to push Charlton above Leja. So I

(58:14):
do think they keep Lee High above Charlton. So I
think the five seed is most likely potentially a four
if the loser the brawl gets blown out and they
drop to the five.

Speaker 1 (58:23):
Two more games here at number seventeen, Ablain Christian goes
to Central Arkansas acu at UCA and uac Action. You know,
that's always a kind of an entertaining thing to say,
right there. Ablaine Christian is one of the few teams
with more than two ranked wins. They've beaten SFA West
Georgia and Tarlton States. If Ablaine Christian wins to finish

(58:44):
eight and four overall eight and two versus the FCS,
with those few ranked wins, I think has a pretty
good argument to be a top sixteen seed, especially with
those ranked victories. If they lose, then I mean they're
probably pretty nervous on the playoff bubble at seven and five. Actually,
those three ranked wins could get them as one of
those last four teams into the bracket. Southern Utah is

(59:06):
a very very interesting team here, and I think if
they win at North Alabama they would finish seven and
five overall, and versus the FCS, they would be on
a six game winning streak, and they don't have any
currently ranked or they do have one currently ranked win
over Appling Christian, but they also have a win over
Austin P who, like we said, it could also be

(59:27):
on the playoff bubble. So is there any chance at
all a seven and five Southern Utah team sneaks its
way into the bracket with its wins over Appling Christian
and Austin P.

Speaker 2 (59:38):
Do I wish they would? Yes? I think there were
playing as one I think they are playing like one
of the top teams in the country right now. The
problem is said, it's going to be just like last year.
Remember last year it was the Idaho State loss that
kept them out. This year it's going to be the
San Diego loss. Yeah you flipped that one.

Speaker 1 (59:57):
Yeah, same scenario pretty much with them.

Speaker 2 (59:59):
Yeah, you flip that one game and they're in. And
I feel so bad for fits in that staff, man,
because it seems like every year Sam, it's like they
start the race by tripping and falling, but then by
the end of the race, Man, they're running full sprint
and they're chasing down the leaders. And if they could
just get a good start to the season and they'd
be in some of these playoff races. But I think

(01:00:20):
they would deserve consideration. I just find it very hard
that the bubble's going to shake out the right way
for them to get in.

Speaker 1 (01:00:27):
Yeah, if I remember correctly, I think the only team
I got wrong in my final bracketology is I put
Southern Utah in and I think I left Northern Arizona out.
And that was one of those things where I was
more so like thinking in my head, like Southern Utah
has to be and like, look how they're playing down
the stretch here, But then when they got left out,
I was kind of like, ah, I should have known
the committee was it wasn't gonna put them at It

(01:00:48):
just seemed unlikely. And it's it's probably the same scenario
here of the end of season hot two really good
wins of Rabbling Christian and Austin p But it's just
I have a hard time seeing them getting in at
seven and five, even with the win this weekend. Yeah,
that'll wrap it up for us, Zach any any final
words here, as next time we'll we'll talk to the people,

(01:01:10):
we'll we'll know exactly what the twenty four team field
looks like.

Speaker 2 (01:01:14):
Man, I can't wait. Man, it's gonna be a great weekend.
You guys better have the either multiple TVs, the split
screen going the remote in hand, because there's gonna be
a ton of games that you're gonna have to watch
this this weekend and I can't wait to watch it. Also, Yeah, it's.

Speaker 1 (01:01:28):
Gonna be highly highly entertaining. So we'll be back next
week to break all that down and what the playoff
bracket looks like. Until then, thank you everyone for listening,
and we'll catch you guys on at the Flippity Flip