November 25, 2025 • 53 mins
On this episode, Sam and Zach discuss the FCS playoff bracket. What were the biggest surprises in the seeds and on the bubble? They then break down each corner of the bracket before looking into the FCS championship odds.
The podcast is presented by HERO Sports and BetMGM. Visit HERO Sports for FCS coverage and BetMGM for online betting odds.
The podcast is presented by HERO Sports and BetMGM. Visit HERO Sports for FCS coverage and BetMGM for online betting odds.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:15):
All right, welcome in FCS tackle football fans to another
episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast, presented by Hero
Sports and bet MGM. I'm your host, Sam Herder of
Hero Sports, and I'm joined by my co host Zach
McKinnell of FCS Football Central and the blue Bloods. We
have a loaded show today as we'll give some thoughts
(00:36):
on the overall twenty twenty five FCS playoff brackets. I
will look at the seeds and the bubble and maybe
some disagreements that we have when it comes to the
FCS playoff selections. We'll also go corner corner to corner
to corner to corner. I'm looking at each corner of
the FCS playoff bracket and some of the draws and
some of the pathways to the semi finals. Then we'll
(00:57):
also briefly touch on the for all FCS championship odds.
Those are now how it's on BETMGM and other sports
books as well, looking at who the favorites are to
win the national championship. But first off, Zach, how are
you doing? How was this last weekend not only with
games but Saturday night bracketology? And then obviously Sunday morning
(01:18):
as well watching the selection show.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
You know, Sam, I think no matter how hard we
try to predict like where the chaos may happen, we
always have like a wrench thrown into our bracketology. I
think we all were scrambling last night trying to figure
out seating and then also to you, just never you
never know how the committee is going to list.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
The first year, we've had two top.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Tens, and it kind of looks like they didn't follow
either top ten, which made it even harder to project.
And so I don't know about you, man, it was
a fun Saturday. I think it was one of the
best weekends of the season we've had thus far in
terms of on field performance, but also a little bit
stressed on Saturday night, man, trying to figure out this
bracketology and making those predictions.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Yeah, so I'll ask you this, do you think the
Committee should keep on doing their in season rankings, because
I mean when they first did it in twenty sixteen,
they did like four and that seemed like a lot
because even that week to week top ten ranking wasn't
super consistent. Two years ago, they didn't do it at all,
(02:23):
and they got flack last year, they only did it
once and they got flack because like it was only
one and then four huge games happened and everyone was wondering, like,
do a second release, We want to know how these
games changed your top ten This year, they obviously did two,
and it made for great conversation and all that. But
I mean, their last ranking release was in early November,
(02:46):
and my guess is when they did that top ten,
they didn't do as in depth of a dive as
they did Saturday night when they had you know, just
their multiple page spreadsheets of all the resumes and all that,
where they did even more evaluation of teams, because we've
seen we saw some pretty big shifts in their thinking
(03:07):
from early November to now, the obvious one being Tennessee
Tech going from number seven all the way down to
number thirteen. The other one was flipping Tarleton State to
four and Lee High to five, whereas earlier this month
they had Lehigh at four and Tarleton State at five.
And we even talked about, like in our rankings, in
our like how we would see things where like, yeah,
we think Tarlton State actually is the better team and
(03:29):
has the better resume, but they had Lehigh ahead of
them and nothing has changed since then, so we think
Lee High will be the four. Do you think they
should keep on doing these top ten rankings or should
they not do them? Or is it kind of there's
gonna be pros and cons no matter what they decided
to do.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Yeah, I think it's the last thing you said that
there's gonna be pros and cons to both sides. I
just wish there was a little bit more consistency with them, right,
because I do wonder, like you said, maybe they didn't
do as deep of a deep dive as they did
this time on either one of their top tens. But
if that's the case, then the top tens really don't
serve much of a purpose, right because they don't have
(04:10):
all the same information that they're going to have at
the end, which is going to drastically change the decisions
that are being made. So I think it's a good
thing to get the top ten. I just kind of
wish they would have taken a deeper dib if that
was the case, right Sam, because I look at it,
I think with like Tennessee Tech, right and everyone's going
to scream strength to schedule. That's fine, But if they
(04:33):
were good enough to be in both top tens, and
they finished ten to zero against the FCS and their
only loss was to Kentucky. What happened in between to
go from what was at seven to thirteen and you
look at some of the other strength of schedules that
(04:54):
jumped ahead of them all of a sudden, like Rhode Island.
How many spots in the strength to schedule are different
between them and Rhode Island, like eight or nine spots.
According to Massy Steven, Folso's strength to schedule isn't drastically
better than Tennessee Tech. So I just think there were
some there were some weird decisions. I think overall they
(05:14):
got the twenty four teams probably right. But at the
end of the day, I still wish there was a
little bit more consistency with the top tens going into
selection Sunday. So maybe it's more I wish there was
maybe like a more Q and a part portion of
it right with the committee head where we could get
some more insight on how they're viewing teams and maybe
(05:36):
that will give us more insight on what they could
be seeing when we get to selection Sunday.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, I definitely think Tennessee Tech has the biggest gripe
on Sunday after this bracket was released, and had they
fallen to nine or ten, I would have been like,
I disagree with that, but okay, I can I kind
of get it, I guess, but all the way to thirteen,
you know, it is really tough for them, and I
(06:03):
strength the schedule is obviously a big part of that
as well. I wonder too if I mean, when you
have a strength of schedule like that and no ranked
opponents on your schedule, I think sometimes the committee really
wants to see you just absolutely dominate that schedule. And
when you beat Gardner Webb twenty seven to twenty one
or Eastern Illinois twenty one to nine, I know, like
(06:25):
UT Martin is even no matter what the record is,
like they're going to be a very competitive team. But
even this last weekend only beat in UT Martin twenty
to seventeen. I and UT Martin finishes six and six. Like,
I wonder if part of the conversation was not only
the strength of schedule, but they're not dominating the strength
of schedule where we think they should be a top
eight seed. I'm guessing that is that was their line
(06:47):
of thinking I don't agree with it, but I'm guessing
that is what it was. You know, on you know,
another team that you know, from what I saw, most
people had the same top eight seeds, which meant most
of us went six of eight. When it came to
the top eight seeds. A lot of people had Rhode
Island in there. Then you know, again a lot of
people had Tennessee Tech in there as well in the
(07:08):
top eight.
Speaker 4 (07:09):
The two teams that.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Slid in there instead were SFA, UC Davis, SFA. I
could definitely see, especially with how you know, they ended
the season on a hot streak. UC Davis was definitely
a head scratcher for me as well. You know, had
eight wins. Their best win was over Northern Arizona, who
didn't you and end up making the field. They had
a bad loss to Idaho States, you know, no real like,
(07:33):
I think they beat Southern Utah as well if I'm
remembering correctly, So that's I mean, that's actually according to
the playoff committee, that's a better win than Northern Arizona
because Southern Utah was one of the four first four
teams left out. So a couple of good wins for
UC Davis I do wonder how much they evaluated the
Mercer game, and while they couldn't count it as a
(07:54):
win or a loss, they looked at it as UC
Davis was winning that whole game. Who knows what would
have happened, you know, if Weather went to hit, maybe
Mercer would have won it, maybe Davis would have won it.
But it was a fifty to fifty game, and we
really like Mercer. We have Mercer as the sixth seed,
so we're gonna use that as part of our evaluation
of UC Davis.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
And put them in the top eight seed.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I kind of get that at the same time, like
they forgave Mercer for losing the Presbyterian because they realized
Mercer is a much different team now with Brandon Atkinson. Well,
Atkinson also wasn't playing against UC Davis. And so if
if you're saying, well, UC Davis beat or it was
beating a really good Mercer team, well, that Mercer team
at that point was an okay team, possibly even a
(08:39):
bad team since they lost the Presbyterian. So even that
kind of is clashing as far as what their angle was.
If they were evaluating that Mercer Mercer game to have
an argument to put UC Davis in as a top
eight seed.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Yeah, I think UC Davis being in the being the
eight seed is was one of the more head scratching decisions.
And I do think at least they were consistent, right,
because a lot of their decisions did kind of boil
down to strength to schedule, Like they obviously really value
strength to schedule because North Dakota wasn't even one of
the last four in at seven and five, right, and
they got what the.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Number two strength to schedule in the country.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
I think it see number number one actually for for
U and D But yeah, top two strength to schedule
carried a lot of weight for you for them.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
And I think you see Davis is it is also
in the top five, so it obviously, I mean it,
it became a bigger deal. And this is what I
that's what I hate about the strength to schedule is like, yes,
it should matter, like that should be one of the
MANI factors you consider, but it shouldn't be the only
factor you consider. And like you said, I don't think
(09:46):
and the other thing with like, cause you mentioned this
with Tennessee Tech, is that they weren't blowing out. You know,
they're against subpar opponents. Do we remember you see Davis
struggling with Utah Tech only winning that game by seven.
They were what beat cal Poly on the road by seven,
(10:06):
which is an okay team, but not a world beater,
not on the playoff bubble. Idaho at the time was
a competitive game in Idaho at that point was not
the same team that everyone thought they were going to be.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
You mentioned the Idaho State loss sack State.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
Sax State was a tight game, and sax State really
had a chance to win that game. They really and
truly in the second half. Montana State pulls away big
time in that one, and so I just kind of
wonder how much better was their resume really than a
Tennessee Tech or a Rhode Island or so, like, I
(10:41):
just it's a fine line with judging these teams, and
it's easy for us, for me and you to write
back with hindsight and be like, well you missed this
and why did you consider this? And I know it's
a lot of pressure to pick these teams, but I
just don't. I don't even see like a valid argument
to have UC Davis at eight outside of there in
the big sky, and they had a really good strength
to schedule.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Yeah, looking at the final two seeds, Youngstown State being
in at the fifteen seed, I think makes sense. Southeastern
Louisiana at the sixteen seed. I projected them as the
sixteen seed. So I ended up getting all sixteen teams
right as far as the seeds, But I remember that
was maybe my least confident projection was put in Southeastern
(11:23):
Louisiana at the sixteen seed.
Speaker 4 (11:24):
I just wasn't.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Super confident that they were going to go that route.
But at the same time, like Harvard, Illinois State, Lamar like,
there were a lot of teams that lost Bam Meth losing,
a lot of teams that lost. That pretty much bumped
Southeastern Louisiana all the way up to that number sixteen seed.
So when it comes to the nine through sixteen seeds,
(11:46):
teams that get a host in the first round, any
surprises there as far as teams that got in or
the order of those.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Teams, No, I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Now I didn't project Southeastern Louisiana's the sixteen.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
I think I had Harvard there.
Speaker 4 (12:00):
Yeah, I was really debating Harvard in that spot.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Yeah, And I really do think it was a fine
line for that sixteen seed. I think you can make
an argument for multiple teams sneaky enough. You could have
made an argument for Yale there with their resume. And
the one thing that got me about SOUTHEASTN. Louisiana is
everybody was saying they should be punished right for their
(12:25):
strength to schedule and no quality wins and all this,
and the committee was like, no, there's still went nine
to one, so we're gonna reward them.
Speaker 3 (12:33):
With the top sixteen seed.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
But it seemed but we just talked about another situation
where they punished the team with a very similar resume
and Tennessee Tech. So I am glad they rewarded SOUTHEASTN.
Louisiana because I was really worried they were going to
put them in one of the last four in just
because of their strength to schedule, and I think it
would have been a bad precedent to set. But I
had no problem with anybody from nine to sixteen. You
(12:56):
can maybe argue one team should be higher than the next.
You know, we kind of already talked about Tennessee Tech.
But I think I am kind of glad they rewarded
Appleton Christian. I was very curious and where they were
going to put them because they did have some head
scratching losses, but four ranked wins that that head to
head over Steven F.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Austin is massive.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
What was it the Southern Utah age pretty well, but
that incardinate war loss really put a dent on their resume.
And I was very curious to see if they were
going to look at the overall record of eight and four,
eight and two against the FCS and maybe put them
as one of the lower seeds. But I am glad
they've rewarded all those quality wins to Wildcats had.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
And this is the second year in a row that
the top CIA team does not get a top eight seed,
and we're seeing that again with Roady and we've I've
talked about in the past of the unbalanced scheduling of
the CIA. It can be a blessing and a curse.
And it's a blessing in that you can rack up
(13:57):
a lot of wins, but it can be a curse
that even if you are ten to one versus the FCS,
and you're a team like Rhode Island and you don't
play Villanova and you don't play Mammoth, you know New Hampshire,
you know was a good win for them, and that
being a ranked win. But when you have that unbalanced
schedule and you're not the top teams aren't playing each other,
it can get you multiple teams in, but you're really
(14:19):
hurting yourself when it comes to getting top eight seed
because you're gonna lack those number of ranked wins. And
so I think I definitely think Roady has a gripe
as well as far as not being in the top eight.
Looking at the bubble here the last four in Harvard,
Illinois State, Lamar, New Hampshire. A bit surprised that You
and D wasn't in this group. I actually thought the
(14:40):
last spot in the field was going to be between
U and D and New Hampshire. But this means you
and D was pretty comfortably in New Hampshire. Was maybe
that very last team out, probably them or Lamar, maybe
even Harvard?
Speaker 4 (14:53):
What was I mean?
Speaker 1 (14:54):
They didn't put this in any particular order besides just
alphabetical order, so we don't know who that very last
team is was you look at the first four out, Austin,
p Momth Presbyterian. Honestly, I was a bit surprised they
were in this bunch. Then Southern Utah. I thought Southern
Utah maybe had a chance with how they were finishing.
(15:15):
You know, Mamuth was maybe the biggest surprise of not
getting in. I believe they were the first nine D
one win team to not make it into the bracket.
There was like a nine and two McNeese team that
got left out several years ago, but they had a
non D one win on the resume. I get player
availability what was probably a factor with Derrek Robertson not playing,
but I was pretty surprised that Mammoth didn't get in.
Speaker 4 (15:37):
Austin P. I wonder if how close Austin P was
to getting in.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
I wonder if it was between Austin P and whether
it Belmar or New Hampshire, because Austin he has the
FBS win. They had one ranked win over West Georgia.
They finished with seven wins, but they were one bad pass,
you know on the two point conversion where ninety nine
percent of the persons completes that pass. They barely lose
(16:03):
to Tarleton States. I considered for a while putting Austin
P in. I eventually didn't do so, but I wonder
just how close they were to getting into this bracket.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
I thought you could make a really really strong argument
for them over in New Hampshire personally, just and like
for all the reasons said, you have the FBS win,
you have the one point loss to Charleton State on
the road, right, and you mentioned, man, what a heartbreak,
just sailed that last pass.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
But then you also can.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Make an argument like don't lose to Eastern Kentucky right
and fall to seven to five. So and also too,
they had the head to head lost to Southern Utah,
so maybe it was actually Southern Utah that.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Was that last team.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Yeah, because with the same record, aren't I think you
would make a strong argument for Southern Utah on the
wind streak with the head to head over Austin p plus
they got a win over Ablene, who's in the field
that would have been that would have been really tough
to put Austin p in over Southern Utah. I think
(17:06):
now the now the flip side is Southern Utah obviously
has the much worse loss at San Diego in.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Week two, so maybe it maybe that would have kept
them out.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
And you also got the lost in Northern Arizona on there,
so I think both those teams would have been my
first two teams out you mentioned Momoth. I really do
think it all had to do with Derick Robertson. And
on top of that too, they lost to what was
it a one win U Albany team. Yeah, you just
can't have that loss. And I think what the committee
(17:39):
saw is Mamoth not having Robertson. They they did it,
they really weren't competitive against New Hampshire. And then the
fact that you Albany really and truly, up until Mama
had started coming back in that second half of you
Albany was dominating them, And I just think the optics
of that game without Derek Robertson really hurt them and me.
(18:00):
And you don't know if Derrick Robertson is going to
even be able to come back for the playoffs. And
you can make an argument that without Derek Robertson, Momoth
was not one of the twenty four best teams in
the country. So I actually don't hate the fact that
Mamoth got left out seventy six.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Strength to schedule.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Like you mentioned, two out of the last three you've lost,
and I think that's that's what could have hurt Like
a South Dakota State if they dropped the North Dakota game,
because everyone's just saying says North Dakota wasn't in the
last four in that as South Dakota State would have lost,
they would have been in I don't know because of
the Chase Mason question. And it looked like the committee
(18:35):
did take into account player availability here with Mammoth and
also too, you have to be punished in some way
for losing to U Albany in the last week of
the season and they weren't in a position what was it, Furman,
do they lose like VMI or somebody the last week
of the season and dropped from like the two seed,
but the two or three seed potentially.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
To like the seven or eight.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Mamoth was not in a position where they were going
to be a top eight seed, and so I do
think the committee punished them for player availability.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Yeah, and that's rough for Momoth. I mean, Derek Robertson
was just absolutely rolling. I mean he still might be
top ten. I haven't looked it up, but he still
might be top ten in FCS passing yards despite missing
several games, and you know how he stayed healthy. I
think Mammoth could have been a quarterfinal potential team, and
I mean they still have really fun players. I mean
(19:24):
Rodney at running back and Josh Dairy wide receiver. I
think I saw that Dary has recently entered the transfer portal, So.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
That's a tough yesterday.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, you just you like to see
really good players, you know, and the FCS playoffs doing
their thing. And I still felt like Momoth had a
fun offense to watch. Weaver was kind of up and
down as a young quarterback. But yeah, I probably still
would have put them in at nine wins to see
what they could do. But understand that two of those
performances down the Strets were very very ugly performances by
(19:57):
by Mamath there, so tough for them, but the CIA
still it's a few teams in. Let's go to the bracket.
Speaker 4 (20:04):
Here.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
We'll go kind of each each little quadrant of the
bracket here. Starting at the way top, we have Illinois
States going to Southeastern Louisiana. We also have Central Connecticut
going to Rhode Island. Who's the nine seed. NDSU will
face the winner of Illinois State Southeastern Louisiana CCSU Rhode Island.
When you're there, will go to UC Davis. What do
(20:27):
you make of this section of the bracket here it
seems I mean, I know there's potential there that NDSU
might face a Valley fo although I think that's going
to be a pretty fifty to fifty game when the
Red Birds go to Southeastern Louisiana. But this it seems
like NDSU probably really likes it. It's draw as the
number one seed in this corner of the bracket.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
Love the draw.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
If you're a North Dakota State fan, I don't know
if you could have gotten a better draw, Sam, because
you're probably two toughest opponents. One you already played in
Illinois State beat them on the road in the second half.
They made the adjustments and really just kind of took
control of that game.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Member.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
I think it was Illinois State played on well for
like two quarters, maybe three. It was like eighteen to
six and going in the fourth, and then North Dakota
State just turned it.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
On and then on.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
I think the eight one eight seed matchup could be
interesting just and this is the only reason it maybe
might be interesting, Stam is that that offense is very
hard to defend. Tim Plow super creative, Caden Pinnick super talented,
but you look at that defense man with those injuries,
I think North Dakota State would feel really confident regardless
(21:34):
of who who they got in any of these matchups
out of this quadrit.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Yeah, Pinnick kind of has a bit of the same
playing style as brun Guard as far as being a
dual threat running quarterback. Yet just even though they run
a decent amount, sometimes they're not always designed runs, and
they're super slippery and it's hard to get your hands
on a guy like Pinnick. So yeah, potentially if that
quarterfinal matchup does happen, that could be an interesting one
for NDSU. Going right below that one, we have Harvard
(22:02):
going to number twelve Villanova. The winner there we'll play
number five Lehigh, and then we have U and D
going to number thirteen Tennessee Tech. Win or there goes
to Tarleton State. This is to me one of the
more intriguing corners of the brackets. I really like that
section there of Harvard and Villanova and then the winner
there goes to Lehigh. Definitely you know, regionalized there with
(22:25):
Villanova hosting Harvard, but we get to see a top
team from the IVY League play a top team from
the CIA, and then they go to Lehigh and we'll
get a chance to see, you know, just how good
Lehigh is. And you know, Villanova and Lehigh they'll be
conference mates next next year if that matchup were to
happen out of the Patriot League. So really interested in
(22:46):
that one. You and d going to Tennessee Tech. Like
I've heard varying opinions on this one. I've seen some
people think that, like you indeed should easily win. And
I know we're not making podcasts on on on this
pot or we're not making predictions on this podcast, but
I do think I'm kind of leaning Tennessee Tech in
this one. But just interesting that this matchup seems to
(23:07):
have maybe the most differing opinions as far as who's
gonna win this one in the first round.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Yeah, but I mean, are you really surprised, because because
historically you see a Valley team go up against you know,
a team with that lowest strength to schedule, everyone kind
of is used to what's happening there, and.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
It's always going to end go a guy.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
I remember, like I understand there's seven and five, but
and that's the they're one of the few teams that
has really pushed North Dakota State. They pushed Montana on
the road, so this team has played up to its competition.
So I get why people might have that perception, but
I'm with you. I actually think this is a really
good matchup for Tennessee Tech, and I think it's gonna
(23:46):
be a much more competitive game. And then also too,
I love the matchup for both of those teams stylistically
going up against Tarlton, I'm really interested to see how
Charlton performs in this bracket because we could have some
super interesting matchups with them. And really, I don't know
about you. So I've seen a lot of people on
social media really underestimate lehah in this bracket and saying
(24:10):
that I guess it's just what the Patriot League biased.
I think people did the same thing with Holy Cross
until they saw Seluca give South Dakota State some trouble
in the first half before they pulled away.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
What was that twenty twenty two, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
Mean Colgate b James Madison in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
Yeah, So I would tell people like, go watch this
Lehigh defense.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
They are elite, And I don't know about you.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Sim I would love to see Jade and Craig against
that Lehigh defense. That would be an amazing matchup.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
I think this is probably one of the more exciting quadrants.
And if you told me that any of these six
teams make it to the semifinals outside of and I
don't want to be but outside of maybe Villanova, I
still kind of question their ceiling. But if they get
hot at the right time, I could talk myself in
(25:00):
to it. Any of these teams making it all the
way to face North Dakota State and the Simmis, you
could make a strong argument for it.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
I think, yeah, yeah, I'm.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
Really excited to see Harvard's defense going up against Milanova's
Russian attack. And even the other first round matchup two here,
I mean, Tennessee Tech is elite against stopping the run,
and U and D has struggled to run the ball
in between the tackles, but they are It sounds like
they're getting Gavin z Barth back, who's their power running back.
So really fascinating matchup. Two matchups in this quadrant in
(25:31):
the first round. Let's just say things go chalk as
far as teams making it to the semi finals. I
know a lot of people looked at the potential and
we'll get to the bottom side of oh Montana versus
Montana State in the semi finals. That could be just
an absolute banger of a game. But if things went
chock up top here, like Tarlton State going to NDSU,
(25:51):
I think could be very intriguing because it kind of
gives Abilene Christian going to the Fargardome vibes or UIW
going to the Farvardome where, you know, matchup wise like NDSU,
I would really like NSU's matchup against Lehigh right because
Lehigh is going to try to overpower you, and that's
just not gonna not going to go very well when
(26:11):
you're facing NDS. You Tarleton isn't I mean they like
to run the ball.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
They're not.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
I wouldn't call them a finesse team at all. They
score a lot of points, so they're very explosive, but
they definitely want to establish the run. But just their
their play style I think could make for at least
on paper and intriguing potential semi final game. And if
you're a Tarletan, I mean, you know, at some points
you know going into this bracket. You would have had
to go to NDSU or one of the Montana schools
(26:38):
if you want to make a run. And I mean
I I think NDSU is better than Montana State. But
if you're Tarletan, would you rather go to Bozeman in
December or would you rather go to the Faradome inside
in December? So I think if you're a Tarletan, you're
probably like, well, if we're going to have to go
to a place, let's take our chances inside on the turf,
not have to worry about the elements.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
I have a thousand percent agree. And if you remember
their offenses, it's.
Speaker 3 (27:02):
Different, right.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
I don't want to make it the direct comparison, and
I don't want to get too deep into the x's
and no's, but it is very similar to the Ablen
Christian offense that gave in the Issues some troubles early
last year. And I do think they might have more
pure offensive talent than that Abilion Christian team had. And
on top of that too, a very experienced quarterback in
(27:24):
Victor Gabalis. And on top of that too, I know
there's injuries that banged up in running back, but I
don't know if you've seen saw him this weekend. Sam
Tyland Haines looked really good this weekend getting back from
that week zero And if you remember, he was supposed
to be the starter over page but got hurt in
week zero, So him being back is is big. And
I think Charlton has a very underrated defense. I think
(27:45):
if you look at this entire left side here, Charlton
North Dakota State would be the matchup I would most
be interested in if I had to pick the most exciting.
Speaker 3 (27:55):
Realistic right realistic?
Speaker 2 (27:57):
Is there some exciting ones that we could predict to
happen but probably aren't very realistic. I think INDIASU Tarlton
would be one of the better semi final matches we
could get from this left side.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
All right, let's go to the other side.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Here we have New Hampshire going to number fourteen South
Dakota State winner. We'll go to number three Montana, and
then we have Drake going to number eleven South Dakota winner.
There we'll go to mercer some I mean some really
interesting potential second round games. I don't want to get
ahead of ourselves. I mean South Dakota Drake, we can
(28:29):
get ahead of ourselves there, the Oats will win. It
is a regular season rematch, which they try to avoid.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
But if it's two teams.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
Who aren't in the same conference, they can pair those
two teams up and that's certainly a bush trip for
Drake going to South Dakota, so can safely pencil South
Dakota in. And I think if they were to advance,
South Dakota going to Mercer, I think is super intriguing
right there. Then the other matchup, I mean, you feel
pretty confident picking South Kota State over in New Hampshire.
(28:59):
At the same time, the Jacks don't, you know, pack
the same punch as they have in previous years. And
the last two times they've been at home they lost
to Indiana States. They fell what was it twenty eight
nothing or something like that to Illinois State pretty early on.
So I don't think this is a gimme game for
South Kota State. But if they were to win, then
they go out to Montana and play the grizz and
(29:21):
that could be a really intriguing game right there. And
like I know, on paper, Montana fans are like, oh,
we're gonna have to play South Gota State potentially in
the second round. That doesn't seem like a good draw
for us. But at the same time, again, South Gota State,
I know they're coming off of an impressive road win
at und you know, it's still you know, a South
Gota State team that I still think has you know,
(29:43):
some issues before that they're gonna have to solve before
making a run. It sounds like Chase Mason is I
don't want to say likely to play, but it sounds
promising that he's going to play this weekend. And I mean, heck,
if if South Goota State can run the ball like
they did this last weekend against un D where they
haven't really shown that a bit, like they could be
a dangerous matchup for Montana, who's not super good against
(30:05):
defending the run. But obviously the Jacks first have to
handle business this weekend against New Hampshire, and I think
this could this could maybe be a closer game for
comfort than maybe what some South Kota State fans are
used to seeing when they get, you know, that first
or second round game when they're hosting a team and
they kind of dominate. I don't know if that's gonna
happen this weekend.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Yeah, And I mean, like even if you project Mason
to be back, are we talking about one hundred percent
Chase Mason? Are we talking seventy five percent? Eighty percent?
How and how long is it gonna take for him
to get adjusted to the game speed because being out
with an injury, man, it takes a minute to get
everything back under you. I'm with you, South Dakota Mercer,
(30:45):
that's going to be an interesting matchup. But I do
think the GRIZ South Dakota State matchup would be interesting.
Speaker 3 (30:52):
It would just I do think they would.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Probably need Chase Mason back and playing it near one
hundred percent to for that matchup to be as good
as we're expecting. And I would want to say too,
I think people are overlooking the sixth seed here in
Mercer in this bracket, in terms of this quadrant.
Speaker 3 (31:12):
Yeah, they are a really bad.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
Matchup for a lot of these teams in this quadrant
because of the way they throw the football and how
efficient they are. Now, the question becomes, once they got
to get on the road, if they do right to
play lesson say Montana true freshmen winter weather, what would
that be saying like mid December, a very very tough
(31:36):
road environment. You know, that would be a huge test
for Atkinson. But when you look at the way they
throw the football, you look at their pass rush, they
are built to give a lot of these teams in
their quadrant problems. So I would not just go I
would not write the Griz and Pin for the semi finals,
because I do think you mentioned South Dakota State, Mercer,
and even South Dakota if they get hot and get
(31:57):
past Mercer, like all of those teams could give them
a run for their money on the right day.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Yeah, Furman went out to Montana a couple of years
ago and I think that game went into two overtime.
And this Mercer offense is certainly better than that Furman offense.
Probably not as stout defensively overall as that Furman team
a couple of years ago. They were really senior Layden defensively.
But yeah, I really like how how Mercer is built,
and we'll see how far they can make it. Going
(32:24):
to the last corner here we have Lamar going to
number ten Ablue Christian The winner will go to number
seven SFA. Then we have Yale going to number fifteen
Youngstown States. The winner there goes to number two Montana States.
A bit intriguing here as well. I mean, I forgot
to look this up, but has an IVY League ever
(32:45):
played a Missouri Valley Football Conference team like ever, like
a non conference I don't think so obviously not playoff wise,
like this could be not only the first ever matchup
between Yale and Youngstown but just cross conference wise as well.
And then you know, actually, if Youngstown wins, you have
that offensive Bot Brunger going out to Bozeman, like that
could be very interesting.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Then.
Speaker 1 (33:07):
I mean we kind of have the bit regionalized here
Labar and Ablaine Christian facing off and they go to SFA.
That second hand game would be a regular season rematch
right there. So this, I mean this corner like maybe
isn't as juicy as some of the other corners, but
at the same time, when you kind of peek ahead
to some potential matchups, it definitely is a really interesting corner.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
Yeah, I think that this might be, like you talk
about the lower corner on the other side of the bracket,
like this one could give them a run for their
money in terms of excitement. You mentioned the matchup of
Youngstown State and Yale. I do think Yale might have
a better shot than some people are giving them credit
for there. That defense is really really good. And also
(33:52):
to their offense has been much better since Reno's kind
of grown into that starting quarterback role and Pittsenburgher can
run the football so And also the thing with the
Missouri Valley teams right sim is that their trenches have
been so far ahead of some of the other teams.
And that's one position group that I think the ivs
are a little bit underrated at is that they do
(34:13):
have really good trench play and so I'll be curious
to see how they match up in terms of x's
and o's. And then you talk about a potential insane
matchup with Ablen Christian Steven Foston rematch, because Steven Foston
got off to a slow start in that regular season
game this year, but once they turned it on, that
game was super competitive. They made it a one score game.
(34:33):
There at the end, you give me vid Lack and
you give me that that Ablen Christian offense that can
run the football so well. They've developed some really good
guys out at wide receiver Stone Earls playing really well.
I think that that top little part of this this quadrant.
It's going to be very exciting. Now the question becomes,
can anyone push to Bobcats And I think I mentioned
(34:54):
this earlier this week. A super interesting storyline here. How
about vid LAC potentially being able to get as reveale
on the Big Sky here, possibly having to go through
Montana State and Montana That would be one of the
coolest storylines that we've had.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
In the FCS playoffs in a long time. If we
could get to that.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
Yeah, yeah, that would be That would be something I'm
trying to see as well. Where yeah, probably I was.
I was also looking at like Southeastern Louisiana. I could
Carson camp like run into one of the South Dakota teams,
But now that that one, I mean unless they unless
they met in the championship, which doesn't seem.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
That that would be like the most insane storyline Carson
camp Lease Southeast and Louisiana to wins over Illinois State
in DSU possibly UC Davis all the way to the
national title.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
Yeah, then they played South Dakota who gets some upsets
as well, but probably not gonna happen, but that would
be something look at it. So we look at at
this side of the bracket here, and I think everyone
is kind of looking at You have the two seed
Montana State, you have the three seed Montana. These two
teams have never met in the FCS playoffs before. If
they had, and this was a conversation last week in Montana, like,
(36:01):
what would be crazier these two teams meeting in the
semi finals, whether it be in Bozeman or Missoula or
meeting in Friskirt in Frisco in Nashville for the national
championship game. And you know a lot of people said
it'd be crazier if they met in the semi finals
game just because it would be you know, in state
and as heated of a rallery as this, it would
just be an epic scene no matter where it was played.
Speaker 4 (36:24):
I mean, I feel like.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
This matchup is going to happen at the same time,
like it's almost too good to be true, Like what
are the chances that one of these two teams trips
up in the quarterfinals?
Speaker 4 (36:35):
You know, one game short?
Speaker 1 (36:36):
So what what is your confidence level that we get
to see brawl two point zero in the semi finals
this year?
Speaker 3 (36:44):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Confidence level? I mean sixty? Yeah, like above fifty. But like,
I don't think it's a lock if that makes sense.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
And because I don't know, you felt like, I would
you give Montaa State the better odds of getting there
than Montana just based on who they have to play?
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Yeah, I think Montana State has the easier path get
in there.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
I agree because you look at Montana they might have
to go through South Dakota State and then Mercer or
South Dakota. I mean those are three really tough games.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
Now.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
I mean, Montana State might have to go through Youngstown
Steven Folsonablik Christians, so they both have tough pass But
I think when you look at the stylistic matchups, I
would predict, like, if I had to pick a team
that's going to falter, it would be Montana more so
than Montana State right now, just gut feeling.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
Yeah, And I.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
Mean, who will see what South Kota State looks like.
But I mean they could catch themselves on a heater
here where. And I can't even remember specifically the offense,
the new look offensive line they had, but they rotated
some guys and they had a new center in there
as well, and like maybe that's just the little tinkering.
South Dakota State needs to get that run game. Going
and then Chase Basin comes back and all of a sudden,
(37:59):
they go to a Montana team that, like I said,
isn't super great at stopping the run. You know, even
if Montana wins that game, I mean, do they play
a mercer team who I think is dangerous or like
South Dakota has been you know hot down the stretch here,
so that so I do feel like more likely than
not we are going to see Montana versus Montana State.
But there there's so many other things like we just
(38:21):
don't know whether it be you know, matchup wise or
you know, injuries. You have the potential coaching distraction with
like Brent Vegan, is he going to go to Oregon State?
Is he going to go to Colorado State? Like what
is he telling them? Is he is he telling them
if I take this job, I'm finishing the season with
Montana State. Does the school that offered him say like
(38:43):
we need you now because of the transfer portal and
signing day? Like how does that all unfold? And that's
you know, you can say the exact same thing for NDSU,
Like we're kind of penciling them into most likely make
it to the National Championship Game. But I mean Polsek
might have one or two offers coming in coming his way.
Can you finish the season? Can you finish the season?
What sort of distraction is that? So there's so many
(39:05):
of those unknowns right now, But it seems like, I mean,
last year, I think everything went chock until the National
championship game. Is that corrected when two beats one and
you se beat in Montana State? But I'm pretty sure
every higher seed one up until that point is is
that correct?
Speaker 4 (39:24):
I you remember?
Speaker 3 (39:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (39:27):
I think the only well, yeah, I guess if you're
talking seed versus seas, remember like ut Martin upset New
Hampshire in the first round.
Speaker 3 (39:35):
Then you had leehh catch.
Speaker 2 (39:38):
Richmond, oh yeah in the first round. So like those
two are the ones that stick out to me. But
I think you're right about chalk in terms of like
seed versus seed past that, because I don't think anyone
else got hot, Like I'm looking here.
Speaker 4 (39:53):
I think we had the top eight in the quarterfinals.
Speaker 3 (39:56):
Yeah, I believe.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Yeah, So I mean there wasn't really any other upsets
up to that point. Yeah, because you had the top
four seeds in the semifinals. So there was that, and
then you had one versus eight in the quarters, two
versus seven, three versus six, four versus five, So once
you got past the first round, there was no upsets.
You just had Lehigh over number nine Richmond and U. T.
(40:19):
Martin over number sixteen New Hampshire in the first round
last year.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
So that was it.
Speaker 2 (40:24):
And then then then you had the Villanova Eastern Kentucky debacle,
which could have been an upset.
Speaker 1 (40:29):
Yeah, yeah, well yeah, and that leads me into my
next question here.
Speaker 4 (40:34):
Then that'll that'll lead into the overall.
Speaker 1 (40:35):
Championship odds, Like it seems overall that just with how
the bracket plays out that like well, three of the
four semi final teams are are probably gonna be you know,
the usual suspects, and we might have a same look
National Championship matchup as well in Nashville. But overall, when
you look at these first and second rounds like there are,
(40:56):
to me, it seems like a lot more juicy matchups
and interesting compared to the past years. And so what
do you just make of the bracket overall? And some
of these matchups we will be seeing it and could
be seen in the second round.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
And I think me and I don't remember if we
talked about it on this show or not. But I'll
tell people this, like, even if we end up with
the top four seeds, that does not mean that there's
no parody or that the games were competitive. So I
wouldn't judge it based on that. But I do think
if you're looking for a region where the top four
(41:30):
seed might falter, it would be that bottom quadrant on
the left side, like that Lehigh Tarlton one. I think
I think that's where you could possibly see some chaos.
And then, like you said, that top type right one
where it would take like a South Dakota state of
South Dakota getting really hot, and then we could see
some chaos. But I think the odds are that we
(41:52):
see like the top four seeds and the semis actually
might be pretty good this year. I do think we
could see some chaos behind that, though, And I think
that's where I've talked about this looks like one of
the more competitive brackets I've seen in recent years, and
that's because you man, you even said it, like the
Southeast and Louisiana, Illinois State fifty to fifty, Rhode Island,
(42:14):
Central Connecticut State was a competitive first round game last year,
Villanova Harvard's probably fifty to fifty, Tennessee Tech, North Dakota,
Youngstown State, Yale, ACU, Lamar. I think stylistically might be
a really bad matchup for Lamar. But we'll see South
Dakota State, New Hampshire. You talked about how that one
could be competitive, and then we have the one obvious
South Dakota Drake that probably won't be competitive. I think overall,
(42:37):
like the bracket is going to be super competitive this year.
Speaker 3 (42:39):
But I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (42:40):
I still think there's some pretty likely eyes that we
get the top four in the semifinals.
Speaker 3 (42:45):
And I mean, outside of.
Speaker 2 (42:50):
Is it like, let me ask this to you, because
this is where I was thinking, is is there an
unseated team that you can see making a run to
the semis potentially.
Speaker 4 (43:00):
Hed wise? I really don't. It's really hard. I mean,
maybe you would go with.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Un D, but that's what I was thinking.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
Maybe, But I don't.
Speaker 1 (43:11):
Even think I'm picking you in D this week, and
so I'm kind of, you know, going against what my
prediction would be. And honestly, I don't even know if
so we have six valley teams in in the field,
right I don't know if the Valley gets more than
one team into the quarterfinals, like who who has the
second Obviously, I mean NDSU is very likely going to
(43:33):
be in the quarterfinals. Besides NDSU, who has the best
chance out of the rest of the valley teams to
make it to the quarterfinals? In your opinion, I would
say either South Dakota or South Kota State, But even
that I'm.
Speaker 2 (43:46):
Not I agree, especially because I think Youngstown, if they
had anyone other than Montana State, would have a pretty
good shot. But that's just mean to get Montana State
round two is brutal for them. I mean probably South Dakota,
South Dakota, like you said, North Dakota if they If
North Dakota looks super impressive against Tennessee Tech this weekend,
(44:10):
I think the conversation might change, right just because I
do think Charlton's really good. But if they go out
there and dominate Tennessee Tech on the road, maybe that
conversation changes.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
That could be the one caveat here.
Speaker 1 (44:20):
M Yeah, yea, that would be interesting to see how
that how that plays out.
Speaker 4 (44:25):
It's in yeah, yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (44:27):
I just I don't know how many, Like I said,
we will probably have the same look semi finals in finals,
but there I feel like there's gonna be a lot
of new blood at least in the quarterfinals.
Speaker 3 (44:36):
This year, I think.
Speaker 2 (44:37):
I think so I'll be curious because I don't because
you know this, We've had this conversation about how people
when like all the CAAA teams get eliminated first round
or second round and don't make it to the quarters,
people always say the conference is overrated and they shouldn't
have had all those seeds or like the soacon right,
I like, I have a feeling the energy might not
be the same for the Missouri Valley when that happens,
(44:58):
Like you said, if they only get one quarter final, ty,
I don't know if we're gonna have the same conversation.
So I think you'll be a good example for the
average Missouri Valley fan that likes to yal all the
other conferences are over rated that sometimes you just get
bad matchups in the playoffs. So that doesn't mean that
doesn't mean those teams didn't deserve a bid.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Yeah, a lot of it has to do with matchups.
Like you said, all right, let's go to real quick,
let's run down the national championship odds. These odds are
via bet MGM, but for the most part, they're similar
across a lot of the books. NDSU has the best
odds at minus two to fifty, and then the second
best odds are Montana State plus five fifty. I mean,
(45:37):
this is the most lopsided or the biggest gap I've
seen between the best odds and the second best odds.
Just for a reference, that twenty twenty three South Dakota
State team that we were all declaring the national champion
back in July, they began the twenty twenty three playoffs,
I believe they were minus one sixty five and then
(45:58):
Montana was plus four fifty. And so for NBSU to
be minus two fifty Montana State to be plus five
point fifty, I mean, that is a wide, wide margin
there for the best odds. Were you surprised, I mean
I expected NCU to have a minus in front of
their odds, But were you surprised to see this bit
of this big of a gap between these two teams.
Speaker 2 (46:20):
No, I personally wasn't one as good as Vegas is.
The attention to detail with FCS is not exactly the
same as FBS right and I think I think me
and you have talked about that with game odds in
terms of throughout the season, the FCS odds, like you
can point out a lot of ones are like what
are we looking at here? And it's just because they
(46:41):
don't think it's it's hard to judge just this well
if you don't cover it all the time, like you're
a fan of an FCS school, But man, you talk
about the brand recognition and how dominant they've been, why
would you not put your money on North Dakota State.
They've constantly showed that regardless of how regardless of the field,
they're going to find a way to win. And I
(47:02):
even think, uh, some South Dakota State fans have talked
about this is just the horseshoe that they just seem
to have right where every loose ball bounces their way
that they get a key turnover.
Speaker 3 (47:13):
And I don't know about you, but even.
Speaker 2 (47:16):
Under Pola sac like outside of maybe that South Dakota
hell Mary, they gave up last year the last week
of the season, every single big game, this North Dakota
State team is so locked in and they don't make
those key mistakes and they force other people into mistakes
and they never give you. If they leave the door
crack many you don't kick it in, they're going to
close the door and lock it and find a way
(47:37):
to win the game. And so I think North Dakota
State is to have your favorite. They they were mining
your national championship picks to start the season, and we
said it was possibly going to be everyone chasing in
DSU because.
Speaker 3 (47:49):
Of everything they had coming back.
Speaker 2 (47:50):
So and I think that that's why these odds resemble,
that is because who are you taking in a winner
take all one game series against North to the State.
And I don't know if I don't know if there's
a really great answer to that right now.
Speaker 4 (48:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (48:05):
And the thing with NDSU too is whether it's media
or other fan bases, Like we're watching them just under
a microscope and we're just trying to find like some vulnerabilities,
and like people will point out what when they point
out ndcu's vulnerabilities, they'll like they'll look they'll just look
at like small sequences or one game or one half,
(48:27):
like oh, Illinois State, they were pretty close with NDSC
or are they vulnerable or like Young Sound State found
some offensive success or like Cole Payton didn't look that
great against against und But it's all kind of like
this this one game sample size rather than like a
season wide like oh, they can't run the ball, you know,
at all, or their defense isn't very good. And so
there's always like when I tweeted out like showing just
(48:49):
how big of a favorite NDSU was as far as
being odds, there were some comments about like, well, they
didn't look that good in this half, or they didn't
look that good against you know, this team during this week,
And it seems like every there are those small spurts
where like, yeah, NDSU doesn't look like a world beater,
but they just seem to turn it on. And I
can't remember what coach it was. I think it was
(49:09):
in the late twenty tens, and he was saying that
you can see it on film that like NDSU just
cranks it up a notch when it gets to the
playoffs and their attention to detail and their level of execution.
And so even when there have been moments where you
look at NDSU and you go, well, you know, maybe
they aren't this runaway favorite for the national title, it
seems like, like you said, in the big moments they
(49:31):
definitely come ready to play, and they usually make those
winning plays. So, like I said, NDSU minus two to fifty,
Montana State plus five fifty, Montana is plus twelve hundred,
Tarleton State is plus fourteen hundred. Then we have a
pretty big gap from there. Lehigh plus forty five hundred,
Mercer plus five thousand, Tennessee Tech plus five thousand, South
Gota State plus fifty five hundred. Then SFA is also
(49:54):
plus fifty five hundred. I won't say the rest, but
the rest of them are all plus eight thousand, ten thousand,
all the way down to fifty thou plus fifty thousand.
If you want to throw some money on Drake, I
would advise you not to. But everyone has has some
odds out there. So just just overall, I mean, we
could talk about who has, you know, maybe maybe the
(50:15):
best value here, but yeah, it kind of seems like
nd SU is definitely the favorite. I'll ask you this,
if you had even odds and you had nd SU
whatever plus plus one hundred, and then the field plus
one hundred or maybe it's minus one hundred, however you
want to phrase it, but even odds nd s U
or the field, you know, so so the same value
(50:37):
pretty much as far as the odds, what would you take?
Speaker 2 (50:40):
It's funny I was actually asked this question and it
was if I had one thousand dollars of someone else's money,
would I'll put it on the field or NDSU?
Speaker 4 (50:48):
Yeah, and straight straight up odds too, So.
Speaker 3 (50:50):
Yeah, I still would put it on NDSU.
Speaker 1 (50:55):
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean I had I maybe
it's just learning from last year. But I'm mean I
had South go to state winning last year, and then
it had Montana State winning last year, So maybe it's
just going back to last year and be like, hey,
you kind of you pick against the Bison at your
own risk, and this year it just doesn't seem like
like a safe bet.
Speaker 2 (51:13):
No, I mean because like you said, everyone kind of
nitpicks them because it's so hard to find like a
glaring weakness. Like if you did like a strengthen weakness's
chart right now, of every team, what would you put
is the Bison's weakness.
Speaker 1 (51:27):
Uh, lack of explosive Russian attack?
Speaker 3 (51:32):
Yes, I think that would that would be it.
Speaker 2 (51:34):
But then on the around, yeah, yeah, Penu might not
average four yards per carry, but you know what he
might end with three Russian touchdowns on you know twenty
you know, twenty two carries. And then on top of
that too you'll have Cole Payton that that may or
may not get off that day, right, depending on how
you defend them in the pocket. So it's it's every
(51:55):
even with all even with that, right, they just they
at the end of the day, they find a way
to win the game, and that's all that matters. Like, yes,
they didn't play well against North Dakota, but Sam, I
mean they found that at the end of the day,
they got a big pick at the end and they
won that game. Yeah, that brun guard got off against them, right,
and it had a really good game. But at the
end of the day, North Dakota State came away with
(52:15):
the winning that game. And in the playoffs, as long
as you win, you advance and the other team goes home.
And I think that's the danger of it is that
when Paula Sek has this team locked in in the
playoffs in big games, they they end up with the
win regardless of how they get there. So that's why
I would still go with NDSU, even though I do think,
like I said earlier, the field as a whole should
(52:37):
be more competitive this year, and I'm really excited for
a lot of these first and potential second round games.
Speaker 1 (52:42):
Yeah, and that's where I was going to end it.
To the bracket overall, I think is very exciting and
even if we have the same look national champion and matchup,
this is as intriguing of a first round Zach can remember,
and even going into potential second round games, some very
very interesting matchups and potentially entertaining matchups. So we will
(53:04):
wrap it up there. We'll be back next week to
recap the first round games. We'll also dive into a
bit more preview material when it comes to the second
round games. We're just kind of on a shorter week
here with Thanksgiving, so we'll be back next week to
break it all down. Thank you everyone for listening, and
we'll catch you guys on the flippity Flip
All right, welcome in FCS tackle football fans to another
episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast, presented by Hero
Sports and bet MGM. I'm your host, Sam Herder of
Hero Sports, and I'm joined by my co host Zach
McKinnell of FCS Football Central and the blue Bloods. We
have a loaded show today as we'll give some thoughts
(00:36):
on the overall twenty twenty five FCS playoff brackets. I
will look at the seeds and the bubble and maybe
some disagreements that we have when it comes to the
FCS playoff selections. We'll also go corner corner to corner
to corner to corner. I'm looking at each corner of
the FCS playoff bracket and some of the draws and
some of the pathways to the semi finals. Then we'll
(00:57):
also briefly touch on the for all FCS championship odds.
Those are now how it's on BETMGM and other sports
books as well, looking at who the favorites are to
win the national championship. But first off, Zach, how are
you doing? How was this last weekend not only with
games but Saturday night bracketology? And then obviously Sunday morning
(01:18):
as well watching the selection show.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
You know, Sam, I think no matter how hard we
try to predict like where the chaos may happen, we
always have like a wrench thrown into our bracketology. I
think we all were scrambling last night trying to figure
out seating and then also to you, just never you
never know how the committee is going to list.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
The first year, we've had two top.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Tens, and it kind of looks like they didn't follow
either top ten, which made it even harder to project.
And so I don't know about you, man, it was
a fun Saturday. I think it was one of the
best weekends of the season we've had thus far in
terms of on field performance, but also a little bit
stressed on Saturday night, man, trying to figure out this
bracketology and making those predictions.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
Yeah, so I'll ask you this, do you think the
Committee should keep on doing their in season rankings, because
I mean when they first did it in twenty sixteen,
they did like four and that seemed like a lot
because even that week to week top ten ranking wasn't
super consistent. Two years ago, they didn't do it at all,
(02:23):
and they got flack last year, they only did it
once and they got flack because like it was only
one and then four huge games happened and everyone was wondering, like,
do a second release, We want to know how these
games changed your top ten This year, they obviously did two,
and it made for great conversation and all that. But
I mean, their last ranking release was in early November,
(02:46):
and my guess is when they did that top ten,
they didn't do as in depth of a dive as
they did Saturday night when they had you know, just
their multiple page spreadsheets of all the resumes and all that,
where they did even more evaluation of teams, because we've
seen we saw some pretty big shifts in their thinking
(03:07):
from early November to now, the obvious one being Tennessee
Tech going from number seven all the way down to
number thirteen. The other one was flipping Tarleton State to
four and Lee High to five, whereas earlier this month
they had Lehigh at four and Tarleton State at five.
And we even talked about, like in our rankings, in
our like how we would see things where like, yeah,
we think Tarlton State actually is the better team and
(03:29):
has the better resume, but they had Lehigh ahead of
them and nothing has changed since then, so we think
Lee High will be the four. Do you think they
should keep on doing these top ten rankings or should
they not do them? Or is it kind of there's
gonna be pros and cons no matter what they decided
to do.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Yeah, I think it's the last thing you said that
there's gonna be pros and cons to both sides. I
just wish there was a little bit more consistency with them, right,
because I do wonder, like you said, maybe they didn't
do as deep of a deep dive as they did
this time on either one of their top tens. But
if that's the case, then the top tens really don't
serve much of a purpose, right because they don't have
(04:10):
all the same information that they're going to have at
the end, which is going to drastically change the decisions
that are being made. So I think it's a good
thing to get the top ten. I just kind of
wish they would have taken a deeper dib if that
was the case, right Sam, because I look at it,
I think with like Tennessee Tech, right and everyone's going
to scream strength to schedule. That's fine, But if they
(04:33):
were good enough to be in both top tens, and
they finished ten to zero against the FCS and their
only loss was to Kentucky. What happened in between to
go from what was at seven to thirteen and you
look at some of the other strength of schedules that
(04:54):
jumped ahead of them all of a sudden, like Rhode Island.
How many spots in the strength to schedule are different
between them and Rhode Island, like eight or nine spots.
According to Massy Steven, Folso's strength to schedule isn't drastically
better than Tennessee Tech. So I just think there were
some there were some weird decisions. I think overall they
(05:14):
got the twenty four teams probably right. But at the
end of the day, I still wish there was a
little bit more consistency with the top tens going into
selection Sunday. So maybe it's more I wish there was
maybe like a more Q and a part portion of
it right with the committee head where we could get
some more insight on how they're viewing teams and maybe
(05:36):
that will give us more insight on what they could
be seeing when we get to selection Sunday.
Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, I definitely think Tennessee Tech has the biggest gripe
on Sunday after this bracket was released, and had they
fallen to nine or ten, I would have been like,
I disagree with that, but okay, I can I kind
of get it, I guess, but all the way to thirteen,
you know, it is really tough for them, and I
(06:03):
strength the schedule is obviously a big part of that
as well. I wonder too if I mean, when you
have a strength of schedule like that and no ranked
opponents on your schedule, I think sometimes the committee really
wants to see you just absolutely dominate that schedule. And
when you beat Gardner Webb twenty seven to twenty one
or Eastern Illinois twenty one to nine, I know, like
(06:25):
UT Martin is even no matter what the record is,
like they're going to be a very competitive team. But
even this last weekend only beat in UT Martin twenty
to seventeen. I and UT Martin finishes six and six. Like,
I wonder if part of the conversation was not only
the strength of schedule, but they're not dominating the strength
of schedule where we think they should be a top
eight seed. I'm guessing that is that was their line
(06:47):
of thinking I don't agree with it, but I'm guessing
that is what it was. You know, on you know,
another team that you know, from what I saw, most
people had the same top eight seeds, which meant most
of us went six of eight. When it came to
the top eight seeds. A lot of people had Rhode
Island in there. Then you know, again a lot of
people had Tennessee Tech in there as well in the
(07:08):
top eight.
Speaker 4 (07:09):
The two teams that.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Slid in there instead were SFA, UC Davis, SFA. I
could definitely see, especially with how you know, they ended
the season on a hot streak. UC Davis was definitely
a head scratcher for me as well. You know, had
eight wins. Their best win was over Northern Arizona, who
didn't you and end up making the field. They had
a bad loss to Idaho States, you know, no real like,
(07:33):
I think they beat Southern Utah as well if I'm
remembering correctly, So that's I mean, that's actually according to
the playoff committee, that's a better win than Northern Arizona
because Southern Utah was one of the four first four
teams left out. So a couple of good wins for
UC Davis I do wonder how much they evaluated the
Mercer game, and while they couldn't count it as a
(07:54):
win or a loss, they looked at it as UC
Davis was winning that whole game. Who knows what would
have happened, you know, if Weather went to hit, maybe
Mercer would have won it, maybe Davis would have won it.
But it was a fifty to fifty game, and we
really like Mercer. We have Mercer as the sixth seed,
so we're gonna use that as part of our evaluation
of UC Davis.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
And put them in the top eight seed.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I kind of get that at the same time, like
they forgave Mercer for losing the Presbyterian because they realized
Mercer is a much different team now with Brandon Atkinson. Well,
Atkinson also wasn't playing against UC Davis. And so if
if you're saying, well, UC Davis beat or it was
beating a really good Mercer team, well, that Mercer team
at that point was an okay team, possibly even a
(08:39):
bad team since they lost the Presbyterian. So even that
kind of is clashing as far as what their angle was.
If they were evaluating that Mercer Mercer game to have
an argument to put UC Davis in as a top
eight seed.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Yeah, I think UC Davis being in the being the
eight seed is was one of the more head scratching decisions.
And I do think at least they were consistent, right,
because a lot of their decisions did kind of boil
down to strength to schedule, Like they obviously really value
strength to schedule because North Dakota wasn't even one of
the last four in at seven and five, right, and
they got what the.
Speaker 3 (09:13):
Number two strength to schedule in the country.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
I think it see number number one actually for for
U and D But yeah, top two strength to schedule
carried a lot of weight for you for them.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
And I think you see Davis is it is also
in the top five, so it obviously, I mean it,
it became a bigger deal. And this is what I
that's what I hate about the strength to schedule is like, yes,
it should matter, like that should be one of the
MANI factors you consider, but it shouldn't be the only
factor you consider. And like you said, I don't think
(09:46):
and the other thing with like, cause you mentioned this
with Tennessee Tech, is that they weren't blowing out. You know,
they're against subpar opponents. Do we remember you see Davis
struggling with Utah Tech only winning that game by seven.
They were what beat cal Poly on the road by seven,
(10:06):
which is an okay team, but not a world beater,
not on the playoff bubble. Idaho at the time was
a competitive game in Idaho at that point was not
the same team that everyone thought they were going to be.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
You mentioned the Idaho State loss sack State.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
Sax State was a tight game, and sax State really
had a chance to win that game. They really and
truly in the second half. Montana State pulls away big
time in that one, and so I just kind of
wonder how much better was their resume really than a
Tennessee Tech or a Rhode Island or so, like, I
(10:41):
just it's a fine line with judging these teams, and
it's easy for us, for me and you to write
back with hindsight and be like, well you missed this
and why did you consider this? And I know it's
a lot of pressure to pick these teams, but I
just don't. I don't even see like a valid argument
to have UC Davis at eight outside of there in
the big sky, and they had a really good strength
to schedule.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Yeah, looking at the final two seeds, Youngstown State being
in at the fifteen seed, I think makes sense. Southeastern
Louisiana at the sixteen seed. I projected them as the
sixteen seed. So I ended up getting all sixteen teams
right as far as the seeds, But I remember that
was maybe my least confident projection was put in Southeastern
(11:23):
Louisiana at the sixteen seed.
Speaker 4 (11:24):
I just wasn't.
Speaker 1 (11:25):
Super confident that they were going to go that route.
But at the same time, like Harvard, Illinois State, Lamar like,
there were a lot of teams that lost Bam Meth losing,
a lot of teams that lost. That pretty much bumped
Southeastern Louisiana all the way up to that number sixteen seed.
So when it comes to the nine through sixteen seeds,
(11:46):
teams that get a host in the first round, any
surprises there as far as teams that got in or
the order of those.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Teams, No, I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Now I didn't project Southeastern Louisiana's the sixteen.
Speaker 3 (11:58):
I think I had Harvard there.
Speaker 4 (12:00):
Yeah, I was really debating Harvard in that spot.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Yeah, And I really do think it was a fine
line for that sixteen seed. I think you can make
an argument for multiple teams sneaky enough. You could have
made an argument for Yale there with their resume. And
the one thing that got me about SOUTHEASTN. Louisiana is
everybody was saying they should be punished right for their
(12:25):
strength to schedule and no quality wins and all this,
and the committee was like, no, there's still went nine
to one, so we're gonna reward them.
Speaker 3 (12:33):
With the top sixteen seed.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
But it seemed but we just talked about another situation
where they punished the team with a very similar resume
and Tennessee Tech. So I am glad they rewarded SOUTHEASTN.
Louisiana because I was really worried they were going to
put them in one of the last four in just
because of their strength to schedule, and I think it
would have been a bad precedent to set. But I
had no problem with anybody from nine to sixteen. You
(12:56):
can maybe argue one team should be higher than the next.
You know, we kind of already talked about Tennessee Tech.
But I think I am kind of glad they rewarded
Appleton Christian. I was very curious and where they were
going to put them because they did have some head
scratching losses, but four ranked wins that that head to
head over Steven F.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Austin is massive.
Speaker 2 (13:17):
What was it the Southern Utah age pretty well, but
that incardinate war loss really put a dent on their resume.
And I was very curious to see if they were
going to look at the overall record of eight and four,
eight and two against the FCS and maybe put them
as one of the lower seeds. But I am glad
they've rewarded all those quality wins to Wildcats had.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
And this is the second year in a row that
the top CIA team does not get a top eight seed,
and we're seeing that again with Roady and we've I've
talked about in the past of the unbalanced scheduling of
the CIA. It can be a blessing and a curse.
And it's a blessing in that you can rack up
(13:57):
a lot of wins, but it can be a curse
that even if you are ten to one versus the FCS,
and you're a team like Rhode Island and you don't
play Villanova and you don't play Mammoth, you know New Hampshire,
you know was a good win for them, and that
being a ranked win. But when you have that unbalanced
schedule and you're not the top teams aren't playing each other,
it can get you multiple teams in, but you're really
(14:19):
hurting yourself when it comes to getting top eight seed
because you're gonna lack those number of ranked wins. And
so I think I definitely think Roady has a gripe
as well as far as not being in the top eight.
Looking at the bubble here the last four in Harvard,
Illinois State, Lamar, New Hampshire. A bit surprised that You
and D wasn't in this group. I actually thought the
(14:40):
last spot in the field was going to be between
U and D and New Hampshire. But this means you
and D was pretty comfortably in New Hampshire. Was maybe
that very last team out, probably them or Lamar, maybe
even Harvard?
Speaker 4 (14:53):
What was I mean?
Speaker 1 (14:54):
They didn't put this in any particular order besides just
alphabetical order, so we don't know who that very last
team is was you look at the first four out, Austin,
p Momth Presbyterian. Honestly, I was a bit surprised they
were in this bunch. Then Southern Utah. I thought Southern
Utah maybe had a chance with how they were finishing.
(15:15):
You know, Mamuth was maybe the biggest surprise of not
getting in. I believe they were the first nine D
one win team to not make it into the bracket.
There was like a nine and two McNeese team that
got left out several years ago, but they had a
non D one win on the resume. I get player
availability what was probably a factor with Derrek Robertson not playing,
but I was pretty surprised that Mammoth didn't get in.
Speaker 4 (15:37):
Austin P. I wonder if how close Austin P was
to getting in.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
I wonder if it was between Austin P and whether
it Belmar or New Hampshire, because Austin he has the
FBS win. They had one ranked win over West Georgia.
They finished with seven wins, but they were one bad pass,
you know on the two point conversion where ninety nine
percent of the persons completes that pass. They barely lose
(16:03):
to Tarleton States. I considered for a while putting Austin
P in. I eventually didn't do so, but I wonder
just how close they were to getting into this bracket.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
I thought you could make a really really strong argument
for them over in New Hampshire personally, just and like
for all the reasons said, you have the FBS win,
you have the one point loss to Charleton State on
the road, right, and you mentioned, man, what a heartbreak,
just sailed that last pass.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
But then you also can.
Speaker 2 (16:33):
Make an argument like don't lose to Eastern Kentucky right
and fall to seven to five. So and also too,
they had the head to head lost to Southern Utah,
so maybe it was actually Southern Utah that.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Was that last team.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
Yeah, because with the same record, aren't I think you
would make a strong argument for Southern Utah on the
wind streak with the head to head over Austin p plus
they got a win over Ablene, who's in the field
that would have been that would have been really tough
to put Austin p in over Southern Utah. I think
(17:06):
now the now the flip side is Southern Utah obviously
has the much worse loss at San Diego in.
Speaker 3 (17:11):
Week two, so maybe it maybe that would have kept
them out.
Speaker 2 (17:16):
And you also got the lost in Northern Arizona on there,
so I think both those teams would have been my
first two teams out you mentioned Momoth. I really do
think it all had to do with Derick Robertson. And
on top of that too, they lost to what was
it a one win U Albany team. Yeah, you just
can't have that loss. And I think what the committee
(17:39):
saw is Mamoth not having Robertson. They they did it,
they really weren't competitive against New Hampshire. And then the
fact that you Albany really and truly, up until Mama
had started coming back in that second half of you
Albany was dominating them, And I just think the optics
of that game without Derek Robertson really hurt them and me.
(18:00):
And you don't know if Derrick Robertson is going to
even be able to come back for the playoffs. And
you can make an argument that without Derek Robertson, Momoth
was not one of the twenty four best teams in
the country. So I actually don't hate the fact that
Mamoth got left out seventy six.
Speaker 3 (18:13):
Strength to schedule.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Like you mentioned, two out of the last three you've lost,
and I think that's that's what could have hurt Like
a South Dakota State if they dropped the North Dakota game,
because everyone's just saying says North Dakota wasn't in the
last four in that as South Dakota State would have lost,
they would have been in I don't know because of
the Chase Mason question. And it looked like the committee
(18:35):
did take into account player availability here with Mammoth and
also too, you have to be punished in some way
for losing to U Albany in the last week of
the season and they weren't in a position what was it, Furman,
do they lose like VMI or somebody the last week
of the season and dropped from like the two seed,
but the two or three seed potentially.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
To like the seven or eight.
Speaker 2 (18:55):
Mamoth was not in a position where they were going
to be a top eight seed, and so I do
think the committee punished them for player availability.
Speaker 1 (19:04):
Yeah, and that's rough for Momoth. I mean, Derek Robertson
was just absolutely rolling. I mean he still might be
top ten. I haven't looked it up, but he still
might be top ten in FCS passing yards despite missing
several games, and you know how he stayed healthy. I
think Mammoth could have been a quarterfinal potential team, and
I mean they still have really fun players. I mean
(19:24):
Rodney at running back and Josh Dairy wide receiver. I
think I saw that Dary has recently entered the transfer portal, So.
Speaker 3 (19:31):
That's a tough yesterday.
Speaker 1 (19:33):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, you just you like to see
really good players, you know, and the FCS playoffs doing
their thing. And I still felt like Momoth had a
fun offense to watch. Weaver was kind of up and
down as a young quarterback. But yeah, I probably still
would have put them in at nine wins to see
what they could do. But understand that two of those
performances down the Strets were very very ugly performances by
(19:57):
by Mamath there, so tough for them, but the CIA
still it's a few teams in. Let's go to the bracket.
Speaker 4 (20:04):
Here.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
We'll go kind of each each little quadrant of the
bracket here. Starting at the way top, we have Illinois
States going to Southeastern Louisiana. We also have Central Connecticut
going to Rhode Island. Who's the nine seed. NDSU will
face the winner of Illinois State Southeastern Louisiana CCSU Rhode Island.
When you're there, will go to UC Davis. What do
(20:27):
you make of this section of the bracket here it
seems I mean, I know there's potential there that NDSU
might face a Valley fo although I think that's going
to be a pretty fifty to fifty game when the
Red Birds go to Southeastern Louisiana. But this it seems
like NDSU probably really likes it. It's draw as the
number one seed in this corner of the bracket.
Speaker 3 (20:47):
Love the draw.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
If you're a North Dakota State fan, I don't know
if you could have gotten a better draw, Sam, because
you're probably two toughest opponents. One you already played in
Illinois State beat them on the road in the second half.
They made the adjustments and really just kind of took
control of that game.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Member.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
I think it was Illinois State played on well for
like two quarters, maybe three. It was like eighteen to
six and going in the fourth, and then North Dakota
State just turned it.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
On and then on.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
I think the eight one eight seed matchup could be
interesting just and this is the only reason it maybe
might be interesting, Stam is that that offense is very
hard to defend. Tim Plow super creative, Caden Pinnick super talented,
but you look at that defense man with those injuries,
I think North Dakota State would feel really confident regardless
(21:34):
of who who they got in any of these matchups
out of this quadrit.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
Yeah, Pinnick kind of has a bit of the same
playing style as brun Guard as far as being a
dual threat running quarterback. Yet just even though they run
a decent amount, sometimes they're not always designed runs, and
they're super slippery and it's hard to get your hands
on a guy like Pinnick. So yeah, potentially if that
quarterfinal matchup does happen, that could be an interesting one
for NDSU. Going right below that one, we have Harvard
(22:02):
going to number twelve Villanova. The winner there we'll play
number five Lehigh, and then we have U and D
going to number thirteen Tennessee Tech. Win or there goes
to Tarleton State. This is to me one of the
more intriguing corners of the brackets. I really like that
section there of Harvard and Villanova and then the winner
there goes to Lehigh. Definitely you know, regionalized there with
(22:25):
Villanova hosting Harvard, but we get to see a top
team from the IVY League play a top team from
the CIA, and then they go to Lehigh and we'll
get a chance to see, you know, just how good
Lehigh is. And you know, Villanova and Lehigh they'll be
conference mates next next year if that matchup were to
happen out of the Patriot League. So really interested in
(22:46):
that one. You and d going to Tennessee Tech. Like
I've heard varying opinions on this one. I've seen some
people think that, like you indeed should easily win. And
I know we're not making podcasts on on on this
pot or we're not making predictions on this podcast, but
I do think I'm kind of leaning Tennessee Tech in
this one. But just interesting that this matchup seems to
(23:07):
have maybe the most differing opinions as far as who's
gonna win this one in the first round.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Yeah, but I mean, are you really surprised, because because
historically you see a Valley team go up against you know,
a team with that lowest strength to schedule, everyone kind
of is used to what's happening there, and.
Speaker 3 (23:24):
It's always going to end go a guy.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
I remember, like I understand there's seven and five, but
and that's the they're one of the few teams that
has really pushed North Dakota State. They pushed Montana on
the road, so this team has played up to its competition.
So I get why people might have that perception, but
I'm with you. I actually think this is a really
good matchup for Tennessee Tech, and I think it's gonna
(23:46):
be a much more competitive game. And then also too,
I love the matchup for both of those teams stylistically
going up against Tarlton, I'm really interested to see how
Charlton performs in this bracket because we could have some
super interesting matchups with them. And really, I don't know
about you. So I've seen a lot of people on
social media really underestimate lehah in this bracket and saying
(24:10):
that I guess it's just what the Patriot League biased.
I think people did the same thing with Holy Cross
until they saw Seluca give South Dakota State some trouble
in the first half before they pulled away.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
What was that twenty twenty two, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (24:22):
Mean Colgate b James Madison in twenty eighteen.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
Yeah, So I would tell people like, go watch this
Lehigh defense.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
They are elite, And I don't know about you.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
Sim I would love to see Jade and Craig against
that Lehigh defense. That would be an amazing matchup.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
I think this is probably one of the more exciting quadrants.
And if you told me that any of these six
teams make it to the semifinals outside of and I
don't want to be but outside of maybe Villanova, I
still kind of question their ceiling. But if they get
hot at the right time, I could talk myself in
(25:00):
to it. Any of these teams making it all the
way to face North Dakota State and the Simmis, you
could make a strong argument for it.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
I think, yeah, yeah, I'm.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
Really excited to see Harvard's defense going up against Milanova's
Russian attack. And even the other first round matchup two here,
I mean, Tennessee Tech is elite against stopping the run,
and U and D has struggled to run the ball
in between the tackles, but they are It sounds like
they're getting Gavin z Barth back, who's their power running back.
So really fascinating matchup. Two matchups in this quadrant in
(25:31):
the first round. Let's just say things go chalk as
far as teams making it to the semi finals. I
know a lot of people looked at the potential and
we'll get to the bottom side of oh Montana versus
Montana State in the semi finals. That could be just
an absolute banger of a game. But if things went
chock up top here, like Tarlton State going to NDSU,
(25:51):
I think could be very intriguing because it kind of
gives Abilene Christian going to the Fargardome vibes or UIW
going to the Farvardome where, you know, matchup wise like NDSU,
I would really like NSU's matchup against Lehigh right because
Lehigh is going to try to overpower you, and that's
just not gonna not going to go very well when
(26:11):
you're facing NDS. You Tarleton isn't I mean they like
to run the ball.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
They're not.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
I wouldn't call them a finesse team at all. They
score a lot of points, so they're very explosive, but
they definitely want to establish the run. But just their
their play style I think could make for at least
on paper and intriguing potential semi final game. And if
you're a Tarletan, I mean, you know, at some points
you know going into this bracket. You would have had
to go to NDSU or one of the Montana schools
(26:38):
if you want to make a run. And I mean
I I think NDSU is better than Montana State. But
if you're Tarletan, would you rather go to Bozeman in
December or would you rather go to the Faradome inside
in December? So I think if you're a Tarletan, you're
probably like, well, if we're going to have to go
to a place, let's take our chances inside on the turf,
not have to worry about the elements.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
I have a thousand percent agree. And if you remember
their offenses, it's.
Speaker 3 (27:02):
Different, right.
Speaker 2 (27:02):
I don't want to make it the direct comparison, and
I don't want to get too deep into the x's
and no's, but it is very similar to the Ablen
Christian offense that gave in the Issues some troubles early
last year. And I do think they might have more
pure offensive talent than that Abilion Christian team had. And
on top of that too, a very experienced quarterback in
(27:24):
Victor Gabalis. And on top of that too, I know
there's injuries that banged up in running back, but I
don't know if you've seen saw him this weekend. Sam
Tyland Haines looked really good this weekend getting back from
that week zero And if you remember, he was supposed
to be the starter over page but got hurt in
week zero, So him being back is is big. And
I think Charlton has a very underrated defense. I think
(27:45):
if you look at this entire left side here, Charlton
North Dakota State would be the matchup I would most
be interested in if I had to pick the most exciting.
Speaker 3 (27:55):
Realistic right realistic?
Speaker 2 (27:57):
Is there some exciting ones that we could predict to
happen but probably aren't very realistic. I think INDIASU Tarlton
would be one of the better semi final matches we
could get from this left side.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
All right, let's go to the other side.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
Here we have New Hampshire going to number fourteen South
Dakota State winner. We'll go to number three Montana, and
then we have Drake going to number eleven South Dakota winner.
There we'll go to mercer some I mean some really
interesting potential second round games. I don't want to get
ahead of ourselves. I mean South Dakota Drake, we can
(28:29):
get ahead of ourselves there, the Oats will win. It
is a regular season rematch, which they try to avoid.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
But if it's two teams.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
Who aren't in the same conference, they can pair those
two teams up and that's certainly a bush trip for
Drake going to South Dakota, so can safely pencil South
Dakota in. And I think if they were to advance,
South Dakota going to Mercer, I think is super intriguing
right there. Then the other matchup, I mean, you feel
pretty confident picking South Kota State over in New Hampshire.
(28:59):
At the same time, the Jacks don't, you know, pack
the same punch as they have in previous years. And
the last two times they've been at home they lost
to Indiana States. They fell what was it twenty eight
nothing or something like that to Illinois State pretty early on.
So I don't think this is a gimme game for
South Kota State. But if they were to win, then
they go out to Montana and play the grizz and
(29:21):
that could be a really intriguing game right there. And
like I know, on paper, Montana fans are like, oh,
we're gonna have to play South Gota State potentially in
the second round. That doesn't seem like a good draw
for us. But at the same time, again, South Gota State,
I know they're coming off of an impressive road win
at und you know, it's still you know, a South
Gota State team that I still think has you know,
(29:43):
some issues before that they're gonna have to solve before
making a run. It sounds like Chase Mason is I
don't want to say likely to play, but it sounds
promising that he's going to play this weekend. And I mean, heck,
if if South Goota State can run the ball like
they did this last weekend against un D where they
haven't really shown that a bit, like they could be
a dangerous matchup for Montana, who's not super good against
(30:05):
defending the run. But obviously the Jacks first have to
handle business this weekend against New Hampshire, and I think
this could this could maybe be a closer game for
comfort than maybe what some South Kota State fans are
used to seeing when they get, you know, that first
or second round game when they're hosting a team and
they kind of dominate. I don't know if that's gonna
happen this weekend.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Yeah, And I mean, like even if you project Mason
to be back, are we talking about one hundred percent
Chase Mason? Are we talking seventy five percent? Eighty percent?
How and how long is it gonna take for him
to get adjusted to the game speed because being out
with an injury, man, it takes a minute to get
everything back under you. I'm with you, South Dakota Mercer,
(30:45):
that's going to be an interesting matchup. But I do
think the GRIZ South Dakota State matchup would be interesting.
Speaker 3 (30:52):
It would just I do think they would.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Probably need Chase Mason back and playing it near one
hundred percent to for that matchup to be as good
as we're expecting. And I would want to say too,
I think people are overlooking the sixth seed here in
Mercer in this bracket, in terms of this quadrant.
Speaker 3 (31:12):
Yeah, they are a really bad.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
Matchup for a lot of these teams in this quadrant
because of the way they throw the football and how
efficient they are. Now, the question becomes, once they got
to get on the road, if they do right to
play lesson say Montana true freshmen winter weather, what would
that be saying like mid December, a very very tough
(31:36):
road environment. You know, that would be a huge test
for Atkinson. But when you look at the way they
throw the football, you look at their pass rush, they
are built to give a lot of these teams in
their quadrant problems. So I would not just go I
would not write the Griz and Pin for the semi finals,
because I do think you mentioned South Dakota State, Mercer,
and even South Dakota if they get hot and get
(31:57):
past Mercer, like all of those teams could give them
a run for their money on the right day.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Yeah, Furman went out to Montana a couple of years
ago and I think that game went into two overtime.
And this Mercer offense is certainly better than that Furman offense.
Probably not as stout defensively overall as that Furman team
a couple of years ago. They were really senior Layden defensively.
But yeah, I really like how how Mercer is built,
and we'll see how far they can make it. Going
(32:24):
to the last corner here we have Lamar going to
number ten Ablue Christian The winner will go to number
seven SFA. Then we have Yale going to number fifteen
Youngstown States. The winner there goes to number two Montana States.
A bit intriguing here as well. I mean, I forgot
to look this up, but has an IVY League ever
(32:45):
played a Missouri Valley Football Conference team like ever, like
a non conference I don't think so obviously not playoff wise,
like this could be not only the first ever matchup
between Yale and Youngstown but just cross conference wise as well.
And then you know, actually, if Youngstown wins, you have
that offensive Bot Brunger going out to Bozeman, like that
could be very interesting.
Speaker 4 (33:06):
Then.
Speaker 1 (33:07):
I mean we kind of have the bit regionalized here
Labar and Ablaine Christian facing off and they go to SFA.
That second hand game would be a regular season rematch
right there. So this, I mean this corner like maybe
isn't as juicy as some of the other corners, but
at the same time, when you kind of peek ahead
to some potential matchups, it definitely is a really interesting corner.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
Yeah, I think that this might be, like you talk
about the lower corner on the other side of the bracket,
like this one could give them a run for their
money in terms of excitement. You mentioned the matchup of
Youngstown State and Yale. I do think Yale might have
a better shot than some people are giving them credit
for there. That defense is really really good. And also
(33:52):
to their offense has been much better since Reno's kind
of grown into that starting quarterback role and Pittsenburgher can
run the football so And also the thing with the
Missouri Valley teams right sim is that their trenches have
been so far ahead of some of the other teams.
And that's one position group that I think the ivs
are a little bit underrated at is that they do
(34:13):
have really good trench play and so I'll be curious
to see how they match up in terms of x's
and o's. And then you talk about a potential insane
matchup with Ablen Christian Steven Foston rematch, because Steven Foston
got off to a slow start in that regular season
game this year, but once they turned it on, that
game was super competitive. They made it a one score game.
(34:33):
There at the end, you give me vid Lack and
you give me that that Ablen Christian offense that can
run the football so well. They've developed some really good
guys out at wide receiver Stone Earls playing really well.
I think that that top little part of this this quadrant.
It's going to be very exciting. Now the question becomes,
can anyone push to Bobcats And I think I mentioned
(34:54):
this earlier this week. A super interesting storyline here. How
about vid LAC potentially being able to get as reveale
on the Big Sky here, possibly having to go through
Montana State and Montana That would be one of the
coolest storylines that we've had.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
In the FCS playoffs in a long time. If we
could get to that.
Speaker 1 (35:10):
Yeah, yeah, that would be That would be something I'm
trying to see as well. Where yeah, probably I was.
I was also looking at like Southeastern Louisiana. I could
Carson camp like run into one of the South Dakota teams,
But now that that one, I mean unless they unless
they met in the championship, which doesn't seem.
Speaker 2 (35:28):
That that would be like the most insane storyline Carson
camp Lease Southeast and Louisiana to wins over Illinois State
in DSU possibly UC Davis all the way to the
national title.
Speaker 1 (35:39):
Yeah, then they played South Dakota who gets some upsets
as well, but probably not gonna happen, but that would
be something look at it. So we look at at
this side of the bracket here, and I think everyone
is kind of looking at You have the two seed
Montana State, you have the three seed Montana. These two
teams have never met in the FCS playoffs before. If
they had, and this was a conversation last week in Montana, like,
(36:01):
what would be crazier these two teams meeting in the
semi finals, whether it be in Bozeman or Missoula or
meeting in Friskirt in Frisco in Nashville for the national
championship game. And you know a lot of people said
it'd be crazier if they met in the semi finals
game just because it would be you know, in state
and as heated of a rallery as this, it would
just be an epic scene no matter where it was played.
Speaker 4 (36:24):
I mean, I feel like.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
This matchup is going to happen at the same time,
like it's almost too good to be true, Like what
are the chances that one of these two teams trips
up in the quarterfinals?
Speaker 4 (36:35):
You know, one game short?
Speaker 1 (36:36):
So what what is your confidence level that we get
to see brawl two point zero in the semi finals
this year?
Speaker 3 (36:44):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Confidence level? I mean sixty? Yeah, like above fifty. But like,
I don't think it's a lock if that makes sense.
Speaker 4 (36:55):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
And because I don't know, you felt like, I would
you give Montaa State the better odds of getting there
than Montana just based on who they have to play?
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Yeah, I think Montana State has the easier path get
in there.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
I agree because you look at Montana they might have
to go through South Dakota State and then Mercer or
South Dakota. I mean those are three really tough games.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
Now.
Speaker 2 (37:20):
I mean, Montana State might have to go through Youngstown
Steven Folsonablik Christians, so they both have tough pass But
I think when you look at the stylistic matchups, I
would predict, like, if I had to pick a team
that's going to falter, it would be Montana more so
than Montana State right now, just gut feeling.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
Yeah, And I.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
Mean, who will see what South Kota State looks like.
But I mean they could catch themselves on a heater
here where. And I can't even remember specifically the offense,
the new look offensive line they had, but they rotated
some guys and they had a new center in there
as well, and like maybe that's just the little tinkering.
South Dakota State needs to get that run game. Going
and then Chase Basin comes back and all of a sudden,
(37:59):
they go to a Montana team that, like I said,
isn't super great at stopping the run. You know, even
if Montana wins that game, I mean, do they play
a mercer team who I think is dangerous or like
South Dakota has been you know hot down the stretch here,
so that so I do feel like more likely than
not we are going to see Montana versus Montana State.
But there there's so many other things like we just
(38:21):
don't know whether it be you know, matchup wise or
you know, injuries. You have the potential coaching distraction with
like Brent Vegan, is he going to go to Oregon State?
Is he going to go to Colorado State? Like what
is he telling them? Is he is he telling them
if I take this job, I'm finishing the season with
Montana State. Does the school that offered him say like
(38:43):
we need you now because of the transfer portal and
signing day? Like how does that all unfold? And that's
you know, you can say the exact same thing for NDSU,
Like we're kind of penciling them into most likely make
it to the National Championship Game. But I mean Polsek
might have one or two offers coming in coming his way.
Can you finish the season? Can you finish the season?
What sort of distraction is that? So there's so many
(39:05):
of those unknowns right now, But it seems like, I mean,
last year, I think everything went chock until the National
championship game. Is that corrected when two beats one and
you se beat in Montana State? But I'm pretty sure
every higher seed one up until that point is is
that correct?
Speaker 4 (39:24):
I you remember?
Speaker 3 (39:27):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (39:27):
I think the only well, yeah, I guess if you're
talking seed versus seas, remember like ut Martin upset New
Hampshire in the first round.
Speaker 3 (39:35):
Then you had leehh catch.
Speaker 2 (39:38):
Richmond, oh yeah in the first round. So like those
two are the ones that stick out to me. But
I think you're right about chalk in terms of like
seed versus seed past that, because I don't think anyone
else got hot, Like I'm looking here.
Speaker 4 (39:53):
I think we had the top eight in the quarterfinals.
Speaker 3 (39:56):
Yeah, I believe.
Speaker 2 (39:58):
Yeah, So I mean there wasn't really any other upsets
up to that point. Yeah, because you had the top
four seeds in the semifinals. So there was that, and
then you had one versus eight in the quarters, two
versus seven, three versus six, four versus five, So once
you got past the first round, there was no upsets.
You just had Lehigh over number nine Richmond and U. T.
(40:19):
Martin over number sixteen New Hampshire in the first round
last year.
Speaker 3 (40:24):
So that was it.
Speaker 2 (40:24):
And then then then you had the Villanova Eastern Kentucky debacle,
which could have been an upset.
Speaker 1 (40:29):
Yeah, yeah, well yeah, and that leads me into my
next question here.
Speaker 4 (40:34):
Then that'll that'll lead into the overall.
Speaker 1 (40:35):
Championship odds, Like it seems overall that just with how
the bracket plays out that like well, three of the
four semi final teams are are probably gonna be you know,
the usual suspects, and we might have a same look
National Championship matchup as well in Nashville. But overall, when
you look at these first and second rounds like there are,
(40:56):
to me, it seems like a lot more juicy matchups
and interesting compared to the past years. And so what
do you just make of the bracket overall? And some
of these matchups we will be seeing it and could
be seen in the second round.
Speaker 2 (41:10):
And I think me and I don't remember if we
talked about it on this show or not. But I'll
tell people this, like, even if we end up with
the top four seeds, that does not mean that there's
no parody or that the games were competitive. So I
wouldn't judge it based on that. But I do think
if you're looking for a region where the top four
(41:30):
seed might falter, it would be that bottom quadrant on
the left side, like that Lehigh Tarlton one. I think
I think that's where you could possibly see some chaos.
And then, like you said, that top type right one
where it would take like a South Dakota state of
South Dakota getting really hot, and then we could see
some chaos. But I think the odds are that we
(41:52):
see like the top four seeds and the semis actually
might be pretty good this year. I do think we
could see some chaos behind that, though, And I think
that's where I've talked about this looks like one of
the more competitive brackets I've seen in recent years, and
that's because you man, you even said it, like the
Southeast and Louisiana, Illinois State fifty to fifty, Rhode Island,
(42:14):
Central Connecticut State was a competitive first round game last year,
Villanova Harvard's probably fifty to fifty, Tennessee Tech, North Dakota,
Youngstown State, Yale, ACU, Lamar. I think stylistically might be
a really bad matchup for Lamar. But we'll see South
Dakota State, New Hampshire. You talked about how that one
could be competitive, and then we have the one obvious
South Dakota Drake that probably won't be competitive. I think overall,
(42:37):
like the bracket is going to be super competitive this year.
Speaker 3 (42:39):
But I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (42:40):
I still think there's some pretty likely eyes that we
get the top four in the semifinals.
Speaker 3 (42:45):
And I mean, outside of.
Speaker 2 (42:50):
Is it like, let me ask this to you, because
this is where I was thinking, is is there an
unseated team that you can see making a run to
the semis potentially.
Speaker 4 (43:00):
Hed wise? I really don't. It's really hard. I mean,
maybe you would go with.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
Un D, but that's what I was thinking.
Speaker 4 (43:09):
Maybe, But I don't.
Speaker 1 (43:11):
Even think I'm picking you in D this week, and
so I'm kind of, you know, going against what my
prediction would be. And honestly, I don't even know if
so we have six valley teams in in the field,
right I don't know if the Valley gets more than
one team into the quarterfinals, like who who has the
second Obviously, I mean NDSU is very likely going to
(43:33):
be in the quarterfinals. Besides NDSU, who has the best
chance out of the rest of the valley teams to
make it to the quarterfinals? In your opinion, I would
say either South Dakota or South Kota State, But even
that I'm.
Speaker 2 (43:46):
Not I agree, especially because I think Youngstown, if they
had anyone other than Montana State, would have a pretty
good shot. But that's just mean to get Montana State
round two is brutal for them. I mean probably South Dakota,
South Dakota, like you said, North Dakota if they If
North Dakota looks super impressive against Tennessee Tech this weekend,
(44:10):
I think the conversation might change, right just because I
do think Charlton's really good. But if they go out
there and dominate Tennessee Tech on the road, maybe that
conversation changes.
Speaker 3 (44:18):
That could be the one caveat here.
Speaker 1 (44:20):
M Yeah, yea, that would be interesting to see how
that how that plays out.
Speaker 4 (44:25):
It's in yeah, yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (44:27):
I just I don't know how many, Like I said,
we will probably have the same look semi finals in finals,
but there I feel like there's gonna be a lot
of new blood at least in the quarterfinals.
Speaker 3 (44:36):
This year, I think.
Speaker 2 (44:37):
I think so I'll be curious because I don't because
you know this, We've had this conversation about how people
when like all the CAAA teams get eliminated first round
or second round and don't make it to the quarters,
people always say the conference is overrated and they shouldn't
have had all those seeds or like the soacon right,
I like, I have a feeling the energy might not
be the same for the Missouri Valley when that happens,
(44:58):
Like you said, if they only get one quarter final, ty,
I don't know if we're gonna have the same conversation.
So I think you'll be a good example for the
average Missouri Valley fan that likes to yal all the
other conferences are over rated that sometimes you just get
bad matchups in the playoffs. So that doesn't mean that
doesn't mean those teams didn't deserve a bid.
Speaker 1 (45:15):
Yeah, a lot of it has to do with matchups.
Like you said, all right, let's go to real quick,
let's run down the national championship odds. These odds are
via bet MGM, but for the most part, they're similar
across a lot of the books. NDSU has the best
odds at minus two to fifty, and then the second
best odds are Montana State plus five fifty. I mean,
(45:37):
this is the most lopsided or the biggest gap I've
seen between the best odds and the second best odds.
Just for a reference, that twenty twenty three South Dakota
State team that we were all declaring the national champion
back in July, they began the twenty twenty three playoffs,
I believe they were minus one sixty five and then
(45:58):
Montana was plus four fifty. And so for NBSU to
be minus two fifty Montana State to be plus five
point fifty, I mean, that is a wide, wide margin
there for the best odds. Were you surprised, I mean
I expected NCU to have a minus in front of
their odds, But were you surprised to see this bit
of this big of a gap between these two teams.
Speaker 2 (46:20):
No, I personally wasn't one as good as Vegas is.
The attention to detail with FCS is not exactly the
same as FBS right and I think I think me
and you have talked about that with game odds in
terms of throughout the season, the FCS odds, like you
can point out a lot of ones are like what
are we looking at here? And it's just because they
(46:41):
don't think it's it's hard to judge just this well
if you don't cover it all the time, like you're
a fan of an FCS school, But man, you talk
about the brand recognition and how dominant they've been, why
would you not put your money on North Dakota State.
They've constantly showed that regardless of how regardless of the field,
they're going to find a way to win. And I
(47:02):
even think, uh, some South Dakota State fans have talked
about this is just the horseshoe that they just seem
to have right where every loose ball bounces their way
that they get a key turnover.
Speaker 3 (47:13):
And I don't know about you, but even.
Speaker 2 (47:16):
Under Pola sac like outside of maybe that South Dakota
hell Mary, they gave up last year the last week
of the season, every single big game, this North Dakota
State team is so locked in and they don't make
those key mistakes and they force other people into mistakes
and they never give you. If they leave the door
crack many you don't kick it in, they're going to
close the door and lock it and find a way
(47:37):
to win the game. And so I think North Dakota
State is to have your favorite. They they were mining
your national championship picks to start the season, and we
said it was possibly going to be everyone chasing in
DSU because.
Speaker 3 (47:49):
Of everything they had coming back.
Speaker 2 (47:50):
So and I think that that's why these odds resemble,
that is because who are you taking in a winner
take all one game series against North to the State.
And I don't know if I don't know if there's
a really great answer to that right now.
Speaker 4 (48:05):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (48:05):
And the thing with NDSU too is whether it's media
or other fan bases, Like we're watching them just under
a microscope and we're just trying to find like some vulnerabilities,
and like people will point out what when they point
out ndcu's vulnerabilities, they'll like they'll look they'll just look
at like small sequences or one game or one half,
(48:27):
like oh, Illinois State, they were pretty close with NDSC
or are they vulnerable or like Young Sound State found
some offensive success or like Cole Payton didn't look that
great against against und But it's all kind of like
this this one game sample size rather than like a
season wide like oh, they can't run the ball, you know,
at all, or their defense isn't very good. And so
there's always like when I tweeted out like showing just
(48:49):
how big of a favorite NDSU was as far as
being odds, there were some comments about like, well, they
didn't look that good in this half, or they didn't
look that good against you know, this team during this week,
And it seems like every there are those small spurts
where like, yeah, NDSU doesn't look like a world beater,
but they just seem to turn it on. And I
can't remember what coach it was. I think it was
(49:09):
in the late twenty tens, and he was saying that
you can see it on film that like NDSU just
cranks it up a notch when it gets to the
playoffs and their attention to detail and their level of execution.
And so even when there have been moments where you
look at NDSU and you go, well, you know, maybe
they aren't this runaway favorite for the national title, it
seems like, like you said, in the big moments they
(49:31):
definitely come ready to play, and they usually make those
winning plays. So, like I said, NDSU minus two to fifty,
Montana State plus five fifty, Montana is plus twelve hundred,
Tarleton State is plus fourteen hundred. Then we have a
pretty big gap from there. Lehigh plus forty five hundred,
Mercer plus five thousand, Tennessee Tech plus five thousand, South
Gota State plus fifty five hundred. Then SFA is also
(49:54):
plus fifty five hundred. I won't say the rest, but
the rest of them are all plus eight thousand, ten thousand,
all the way down to fifty thou plus fifty thousand.
If you want to throw some money on Drake, I
would advise you not to. But everyone has has some
odds out there. So just just overall, I mean, we
could talk about who has, you know, maybe maybe the
(50:15):
best value here, but yeah, it kind of seems like
nd SU is definitely the favorite. I'll ask you this,
if you had even odds and you had nd SU
whatever plus plus one hundred, and then the field plus
one hundred or maybe it's minus one hundred, however you
want to phrase it, but even odds nd s U
or the field, you know, so so the same value
(50:37):
pretty much as far as the odds, what would you take?
Speaker 2 (50:40):
It's funny I was actually asked this question and it
was if I had one thousand dollars of someone else's money,
would I'll put it on the field or NDSU?
Speaker 4 (50:48):
Yeah, and straight straight up odds too, So.
Speaker 3 (50:50):
Yeah, I still would put it on NDSU.
Speaker 1 (50:55):
Yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean I had I maybe
it's just learning from last year. But I'm mean I
had South go to state winning last year, and then
it had Montana State winning last year, So maybe it's
just going back to last year and be like, hey,
you kind of you pick against the Bison at your
own risk, and this year it just doesn't seem like
like a safe bet.
Speaker 2 (51:13):
No, I mean because like you said, everyone kind of
nitpicks them because it's so hard to find like a
glaring weakness. Like if you did like a strengthen weakness's
chart right now, of every team, what would you put
is the Bison's weakness.
Speaker 1 (51:27):
Uh, lack of explosive Russian attack?
Speaker 3 (51:32):
Yes, I think that would that would be it.
Speaker 2 (51:34):
But then on the around, yeah, yeah, Penu might not
average four yards per carry, but you know what he
might end with three Russian touchdowns on you know twenty
you know, twenty two carries. And then on top of
that too you'll have Cole Payton that that may or
may not get off that day, right, depending on how
you defend them in the pocket. So it's it's every
(51:55):
even with all even with that, right, they just they
at the end of the day, they find a way
to win the game, and that's all that matters. Like, yes,
they didn't play well against North Dakota, but Sam, I
mean they found that at the end of the day,
they got a big pick at the end and they
won that game. Yeah, that brun guard got off against them, right,
and it had a really good game. But at the
end of the day, North Dakota State came away with
(52:15):
the winning that game. And in the playoffs, as long
as you win, you advance and the other team goes home.
And I think that's the danger of it is that
when Paula Sek has this team locked in in the
playoffs in big games, they they end up with the
win regardless of how they get there. So that's why
I would still go with NDSU, even though I do think,
like I said earlier, the field as a whole should
(52:37):
be more competitive this year, and I'm really excited for
a lot of these first and potential second round games.
Speaker 1 (52:42):
Yeah, and that's where I was going to end it.
To the bracket overall, I think is very exciting and
even if we have the same look national champion and matchup,
this is as intriguing of a first round Zach can remember,
and even going into potential second round games, some very
very interesting matchups and potentially entertaining matchups. So we will
(53:04):
wrap it up there. We'll be back next week to
recap the first round games. We'll also dive into a
bit more preview material when it comes to the second
round games. We're just kind of on a shorter week
here with Thanksgiving, so we'll be back next week to
break it all down. Thank you everyone for listening, and
we'll catch you guys on the flippity Flip
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