Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hey, what's up everybody? Sam hearder here on the FCS
Football Talk podcast. We're gonna do a bit of a
throwback solo episode here, and longtime listeners know there have
been many iterations of this podcast. It started out as
the Hero Sports FCS podcast with the late great Brian
McLaughlin and Jim Oxley, and then it turned into Jim,
(00:26):
Brian and myself. For a little bit, it was me, Brian,
Chase Kitty, and then we rebranded it to b Macenhurd's
FCS Podcast with the late great Brian McLaughlin and myself,
and then I went solo for a little bit and
did some some solo episodes where pretty much me Presser
record rambling for sixty some minutes and then stop recording
(00:48):
and uploading it. This was like twenty twenty two, twenty
twenty three somewhere around there, and it was it was
popular enough where I kept on doing it, even though
it was it was kind of a challenge to just
talk by yourself for that long. And thankfully last year
and into this year as well, brought on Zach McKinnell
of FCS Football Central and the blue Bloods to help
(01:08):
co host this podcast during the football season. But for
this one again to go solo here. Zach and I
already recorded earlier this week yesterday actually actually where we
talked about last weekends FCS action kind of recapping the
highs and the lows there, and we also projected ahead
of what we thought the FCS Playoff Committee I was
(01:29):
going to do with today's rankings. We each projected our
top six. And now that the FCS Playoff Committee has
its top ten rankings out as of you know, through
seven weeks of the FCS football season, I figure it out.
Wud jump on here and go through this top ten
kind of my thoughts on it, thoughts on the order,
thoughts on some teams that you know, maybe had an
(01:52):
argument to get into this top ten. But we'll start
with the FCS Playoff Committee's number ten team that was
Tennessee Tech. Not surprised at all to see Tennessee Tech
in this top ten here. Not the strongest strength of schedule,
it's one hundred and seventeenth, but the Tennessee Tech is
six and zero. They've mostly dominated their opponents. They do
(02:12):
have a non Division one win on their resume and
so five D one wins, but they certainly passed the
Eyeball test. They're not going to have the best resume
out there. I would be surprised even if they finished undefeated.
I would be surprised to see them in that top four,
top five, just because they are going to lack ranked
wins and not have a strong strength to schedule. But
I certainly think potentially worthy of a top eight seed
(02:35):
in a first round by if they are able to
keep on winning games and winning decisively, because how you
win does matter. And if you have a strength to
schedule in the hundreds and you're beating this strength of
schedule by an average of seven points, that's maybe not
going to move the needle. But if you are beating
teams fifty two to ten, that could move the needle
enough for the playoff committee to say, you know what,
(02:56):
might not have ranked wins, might not have a great
strength to schedule, but you guys, that's the Eyeball test.
And so Tennessee Tech right there at number ten I
think does make sense to me. Number nine is Mamuth,
And this was one where I was interested to see
where they would put a team like Mommoth. You know,
how would they stack up against an Illinois state team
or a Southern Illinois team, and Mammath is five and
(03:18):
one overall, but they are five and zero versus the FCS.
They do have a really nice ranked win. They beat Villanova,
who was ranked a number eleven at the time, and
they really hammered Villanova. The final score was like sixteen points,
but it was very much a blowout for most of
that game. And so that is a quality win on
mamis resume, and I think they have a chance to
(03:39):
keep on climbing because I don't necessarily think they have
any games that really scare you, and so I could
see a mom myth team that does finish undefeated versus
the FCS. Probably only one ranked win. You know, strength
to schedule will be a projected year in strength of
schedule is going to be number seventy one, and so
not a super grit strength of schedule, but you know,
(04:02):
it's a team. If you keep on winning, there's a
chance you could rise in the rankings. But we did
see last year the CAAA champion Rhode Island had what
like a ten and two record something like that, and
they got the number nine seed and so they did
not get the first round by and so that is
the the positives and the negatives of the CIA's unbalanced schedule,
where yeah, you can win a lot of games and
(04:23):
get into the playoffs, but sometimes you might get punished
because you lack ranked wins. And we'll see if Mammoth
Ken go undefeated, and if they do go undefeated versus
the FCS, I should say they do have an FBS
loss in there. If they do go undefeated versus the
FCS with one ranked win, where exactly would that stack
up with with other teams, you know, for the Playoff Committee.
(04:44):
Moving on to the Playoff Committe's number eight team, und
I thought this was probably a good spot for U
and D, who's at four and two right now overall
four and one versus the FCS. That one loss is
at Ontana game that was very very close and a
game that un D certainly feels like they, you know,
(05:06):
they should have pulled out and got that win, but
they did lose. They did lose that game. But it's
a you know, a quality loss if you want to
call it that. And we'll come back to the term
quality loss later on in this podcast. You and D,
you know, has a really good strinth to schedule right now.
Which is ranked ninth in the FCS and do the
Fighting Hawks do have one ranked win that's over Youngstown State.
(05:28):
The Penguins were ranked number twenty at the time. Now
they're number twenty five and the coaches poll a Young
Sound State has another ranked match up this weekend, and
so we'll see if they could stick in the polls.
You know, for any team out there, once you beat
a team, you're now cheering for that team because you want,
you know, that that win to age well. And so
for U and D, you want Young Sound State to
stick around in the rankings because that just obviously boosts
(05:50):
up your playoff resume. Number number seven for the for
the playoff committee. They have le High, an interesting team
that I think, to the eye looks really good and
they are set and zero right now with seven Division
one wins. You know, strict the schedule is eighty six
and so not super great, but for the most parts
they are dominating their opponents, and you know they are.
(06:12):
They were a playoff team last year and they actually
gave Idaho a pretty decent game. And I know this
is twenty twenty five, not twenty twenty four, but I
do think whether it is subconsciously. If you are, you know,
a well known name amongst the playoff committee and you've
shown that you can compete well in the playoffs, you know,
maybe you get a little bit more benefit of the doubt.
And I do think Lehigh maybe not a brand brand
(06:32):
name in the FCS, but I think I do think
they are a team that the playoff Committee members will
recognize and say, oh, you know, that's a good team
that has given some other teams like Idaho a decent
scare for at least portion of that game. Last year.
Lehigh does have one ranked win at the time. That
was over Richmond, who was ranked number twenty five and
number twenty two at the time. That was way back
(06:53):
in Week one, and Richmond has since fallen off. You know,
some people might ask, what does the Playoff committee value
more ranked wins at the time or currently ranked wins.
I think that is up to each committee member on
what they want to value, and for me personally, I
do think currently ranked wins are more important. And I
think part of that is pretty obvious. Right If you
beat the number ten team in Week two and that
(07:15):
team ends up being three and eight, do you really
have a top ten win you know, on your resume.
But there are also other times too where let's say
you beat you know, the number twenty four team in
week ten, and because you beat them, you know, late
in the season they were number twenty four, they bounced
out of the top twenty five rankings, and so it's
not a currently ranked win, but it's still you know,
(07:38):
a good win because had you not beaten them, they
would still be ranked, if that makes sense, And so
to me, I think it is a balance of then
ranked wins versus currently ranked wins. I do value currently
ranked wins more, but I think that's the importance of
watching games and also just having that general you know
FCS knowledge knowing. Okay, you know Team eight beat Team B.
Team B is no longer ranked, but you know they
(07:59):
were right outside the ranking, and so it's better than
some other than ranked wins, like if you beat number
fifteen team in week two, they go on to finish
two to ten. Like to me, that's not necessarily an
impressive win and has an age you know as well
as you would like. So Lee high at number seven,
number six UC Davis. This was a spot I expected
the ages to be in. They are five and one
(08:22):
right now, five and zero versus the FCS you know,
pretty strong strength to schedule, ranked fifteenth. That is definitely
juiced up by the fact that they played FBS Washington.
But they do have one ranked win. This was over
a number fourteen slash sixteen Northern Arizona. That was a,
you know, a rather decisive win. For the most part,
(08:45):
it was a one score game going into the fourth
quarter this last weekend, but then UC Davis tacked down
two more touchdowns, so a twenty one point win over
you know, a ranked team in Northern Arizona that also
made the playoffs last year. I definitely think that that
was a much needed win for Davis because they just
didn't really have any wins on the resume before that.
(09:05):
That moved the needle, at least for me. But now
having that ranked win certainly is looking very good on
their playoff resume. All right, now to the top five.
This is where things get interesting. Montana at number five,
and I had Montana number four in my projection. You
(09:26):
know my projection. My projection for the most part, my
top six was relatively accurate. I just mixed around Montana
State and Montana. We'll get to Tarleton State at three,
but I did have the expectations that the committee was
going to put Tarleton State number three. But the Grizz
being at number five isn't necessarily a surprise to me
(09:48):
because you do break down the Grizz's resume and they
are six and zero, but they do have only five
Division one wins. So you compare that to Tarleton State's
Tarleton State seven division one wins, you know, and that
you know, maybe swayed the committee a little bit to
lean Tarleton State here. And as far as non D
(10:08):
one wins, they do count on your playoff resume, but
they don't count as much as D one wins. And
so if Montana is twelve and er, let's say Tarleton
State is twelve and er, Montana is gonna be viewed
as a twelve and oh team, but Tarleton is gonna
be viewed as Okay, Tarleton has twelve D one wins,
Montana has eleven D one wins. And if all things
else are equal, as far as number of ranked wins,
(10:31):
strength to schedule is going to be on par with
each other. Actually looking at it now, with the projected
the projected year end strength to schedule for Tarleton State
is twenty ninth. For Montana it's twenty eighth, so like
right on par with each other. And so if you're
a strinth to schedule and ranked wins are pretty much
the same. And Tarleton State has one more Division one
(10:53):
win than Montana, that could be the separator. And I
just two things real quick. Don't schedule D two's D
three anais. Don't schedule two FBS opponents because you're setting
yourself back when it comes to the number of D
one wins on your resume, and that could be the
difference between the two in the three seed. And I
totally understand that scheduling is hard, and scheduling all D
(11:13):
one games can be hard, but you got to do
you got to do it. You can't schedule non D
ones because it can come back to hurt you. South
Kota State in South Dakota found this out last year
and also scheduling two FBS opponents. I know some athletic
departments need, you know that money, but I think you
can get by most should be able to get by
(11:33):
not having three hundred thousand dollars extra, you know, by
scheduling that second FBS game, because you really put yourself
back there. And now, while you don't get punished for
losing to an FBS team, you do get punished in
the sense that that's one or two less opportunities at
Division one wins and so kind of a kind of
kind of a sidebar there. But the Griz being at
(11:53):
number five for the committee, I think was probably a
surprise for a lot of people. I wasn't necessarily anticipating,
but I wasn't shocked by it either. And you can
kind of go side by side Montana versus Montana States,
like why did they decide to go with the Cats
at four? Why did they decide to go with the
Grizz at five? And I mean it could be eye tests,
(12:14):
because I do think to the eye Montana State has
looked like the better team than Montana over these last
few weeks. It just played. It looks like, you know,
better ball on offense and defense. And even if you
want to look at overall resume, I mean, you can
look at ranked wins and Montana would have the edge there.
The Grizz have beaten un D and Idaho, both of
(12:36):
those teams are still a ranked So that's two ranked
wins for the Grizz. Montana State only has one ranked
win that was a rather decisive one on the road
for Montana State at Northern Arizona, and so the Cats
have an edge, or excuse me, the grizz have an
edge there as far as number of ranked wins. When
it comes to strength to schedule, Montana State has a
huge edge there. The Cats have the number two strength
(12:58):
of schedule through games played out of all FCS teams,
number two compared to Montana's number forty three strength to schedule.
Now you can counter that and say, okay, take Oregon,
you know, off of that, and then what is Montana
State strength to schedule? I would still guess it probably
is ahead of Montana's strength to schedule just because you know,
(13:19):
they did play Northern Arizona on the road and they
did host South Dakota State at home, and so I
still feel like even if you take that Oregon game
off of Montana State strength of schedule, I still feel
like the Cats would would have the strongest strength of
schedule according to whatether algorithm or calculation you want to make,
but it wouldn't be as decisive as number two versus
number forty three. And then going back to the eye test,
(13:42):
And I know a lot of people hate the term
quality losses, and I know on paper like quality losses
like that that shouldn't be a thing. But I do
believe that if your number one argument is quality losses,
then that's not a good argument. So we'll start there.
If you don't have any great wins, but you have, oh,
we played three top ten teams all to seven to
(14:04):
seven point losses, Like, look at all these quality losses.
If that's your best argument, that's not a good argument.
But when you try to view a team through all
different angles, and some people ask, like what is the
playoff committee are they? Are they just doing best resumes?
Are they doing to the eye tests? Are they doing
best teams? It really varies, you know, by committee member.
(14:24):
There isn't a rigid set of criteria. Some maybe members
might be very analytical and look at all the analytics
and ranked wins and strength to schedule and you know,
like where you're rated in the computer. Others might be
you know, hardcore football guys and really value the eye tests.
But I think at the end of the day, most
(14:44):
of the time the Playoff Committee, what they'll do kind
of what they'll stress is they're trying to get the
best teams in there. They're not. They're trying to get Okay,
who's the best team that we think is the best team?
That's the number one team, that's the number one seed.
Who do you think is the second best team? You know,
that's that's the that's the number two seed obviously, and
then they use kind of the resume to kind of
(15:05):
back that up. And so if that is their argument
here of who do we think is the better team
right now Montana versus Montana States, they could view it
from all different angles, whether it be the strength of schedule,
whether it be comparing the Idaho States performances, although you
know road versus away, different defensive schemes, you can kind
of really dive into things there. To me, I think
(15:26):
you can make the case either way for Montana or
Montana State. But going to the quality losses, I think
this is where quality losses and how you perform does
play a role. And if the playoff committee is very
high on South Kota State, which they are, they are
the number two team, and they look at how Montana
State played South Dakota States, they'll go, Okay, the Cats
(15:48):
took the Jacks to two overtime, So it was pretty
much a coin flip game. And if we're really high
on South Kota States and we watched that game, how
they played Montana State, Like, we think Montana State is
a really really good team too, even though we're kind
of weighing them with a loss, like it still is
a quality loss. And so not all losses are created
the same, not all wins are created the same either.
(16:10):
And I do think in this sense, a quote unquote
quality loss does come into play because you're trying to
get just as much data points and as much knowledge
as you can try to really figure out how you're
comparing team A to team B. And sometimes you do
look at losses and how you lost, and if you
play a top three team and you compete very very
(16:30):
well like that, that is different than losing to you know, say,
you know, Austin p losing to Eastern Kentucky like those
those are two very different losses right there. So very
very interesting to see how things kind of evolve here.
And of course Montana Montana State still need to play,
so ultimately it'll be decided on the field, but you
still have to like the enthusiasm and the passion of
(16:52):
of all these fan bases that even though most of
them know like, okay, things will, things will settle on
the field, I still think it's fun to have have
that passion and have you know that those arguments and
you know, those Twitter beefs whatever you want to call it,
excuse me, whatever you want to call it on on
social media, Like you'd rather have passionate fans complain about
(17:13):
where they're ranked right now rather than just being like, whatever,
we don't care. So I really like the the overall
social media chatter chatter around these rankings. All right, the
number three team for the Playoff Committee is Tarleton States.
This was not a surprise to me at all. I
projected the Playoff Committee to have the Texas at number three.
For me personally, in my top twenty five ballots, I
(17:36):
do have Montana number three. I do have Montana State
number four, and I do have Tarleton State number five.
I feel like if these teams were to meet on
a neutral field, I would pick both Montana schools to
beat Tarleton States. But you know, it's not always about
that with the Playoff Committee. Sometimes they do look at
you know, resumes more than like who would we pick
on a neutral field. It's kind of a little bit
(17:58):
of balance of both between eye tests and resume. And
I mean, even if you want to go beyond the
playoff resume to the eye test. You know, Tarleton State
as for the most part past the eye test, that
they've really hammered most of their opponents. And even you
look at these last two games, maybe they haven't beaten
Southern Utah or Utah Tech by as much as people
(18:18):
would expect, but I mean at the same time, Utah
Tech played UC Davis and Northern Arizona to one score games,
and so Utah Tech is a quality of team even
though their overall record isn't isn't very good. And player availability,
you know, that is also a factor for the playoff committee.
And as we've talked about, Tarleton State has down multiple
guys on their too deep you know, notably starting quarterback,
(18:40):
notably their top three rushers or top three running backs
coming into this season. And so to still be able
to win some of those games without a lot of
your key contributors, I think is impressive to the eye.
And then even if you want to go to the
on paper resume, I mean, if they're ranking teams through
games played so far, Taroton State has seven D one wins,
(19:01):
Montana has five, Montana State has five, So that's rather
a decisive right they're having two more D one wins
at this point in the season. They also have a
strength to schedule that actually according to MASSI, which is
a tool that the playoff Committee does use, Tarothan State's
massy strengthen schedule is thirty seventh. Montana's is forty third,
and so according to this metric, Tarleton State does have
(19:23):
a tougher strength to schedule than Montana and Tarotan State.
I think you could definitely argue has the best win
out of Montana or Montana State because they did beat Army,
and Army is three and three right now, and I
believe SAGIN likes Army, you know, more than un D.
They'd like in U and D is Montana's best win.
(19:44):
Montana State's best win is Northern Arizona. Sagan ratings they
like Army more than Northern Arizona. And so you couple
that with the head to head strengthen schedule advantage over
Montana State or over Montana excuse me, Tarthan better strength
of schedule than Montana. You also couple that with two
more D one wins than both the Grizz and the Cats,
and you couple that with a better win, you know,
(20:07):
a better win over Army compared to Montana's un d
and Montana State's Northern Arizona. To me, totally makes sense
why the playoff committee has Tarleton State number three. And
you know, again, for me, I have them number five
and my personal ranking as far as who I think
are the best teams. But like I said, I really
felt rather comfortable that the playoff committee was going to
(20:32):
rank Tarlton State number three. And things are always fluid, right,
I mean, Tarleton State could win out and Montana could
win out, and that doesn't mean Tarleton State has to
stay ahead of Montana because you know, over the course
of the season, maybe if Montana does go unefeated, that
means they beat Montana State and that's that, right, there
is enough to move the Grizz over Tarleton State even
(20:54):
if Tarleton State were to win out. And so things
are very fluid here. And just because teammates had a
Team B and both went out, We've seen plenty of
examples of this in the past where Team B ended
up moving ahead of teammate, even though they both went
out just because you know, maybe they had more impressive
wins as as the season ended and got near its
end of the regular season. Top two teams pretty obvious here.
(21:17):
South Gota State number two, North Kota State number one,
you know, pretty obvious here. South Kota State has three
ranked wins at the time, two currently ranked wins over
Montana State and Youngstown State NDSU three ranked wins at
the time. Also, those three opponents are still currently ranked,
and so three currently ranked wins for the Bison. That's
(21:41):
South Dakota, Illinois State Southern Illinois. So both have very
very good resumes, and they will meet in a couple
of weeks here, and so that that will be for
a lot a lot on the line there. And I
do think it is possible for the loser of the
Dakota marker to still be a top two seed if
they went out. You can make an argument that and
(22:01):
eleven and one and eleven in one NDSU team or
in eleven and one Southcota State team could still have
a better resume than a twelve and oho Montana team
or a twelve and oh Charlton State team. Not saying
that that for sure would happened. But I still think
there's a chance for the loser of the Dakota Marker
game to still be a top two seed, but they
(22:23):
would probably definitely be nervous, you know, if they were
to get that top two seed or not. And having
that number two seed is absolutely crucial because, as I've
said multiple times, the difference between the number two and
the three seed usually is very very minuscule when it
comes to your resume and what's separating you for that
two and three seed and the last it's been several
years since a road team one in the semi finals,
(22:47):
and so the difference between the two and the three
seed could be the difference between reaching the National Championship
game or not. And obviously the same thing with you know,
the four seed having to go on the road to
the number one seed. You know, some teams that I
thought maybe had an argument to be in this top ten,
but you know, honestly, for the most but I don't
really have any arguments. I don't really I'm not necessarily
(23:08):
going to hammer the table for any of these teams
that you know, this team got screwed over and should
have been in the top ten. But weren't you know,
one team that came to mind Abline Christian I thought
maybe had a really good argument. Now they are four
and three overall, and you know, there will only have
four D one wins at this point, but two of
those losses are to FBS opponents, and so they're four
(23:28):
and one versus the FCS, and they have three ranked
wins SFA, Austin p and West Georgian, and so I
actually think they have a really really good resume to
be in this top ten, but not necessarily surprised that
they didn't make this top ten. You know, Mercer at
five and one, five straight wins, maybe had an argument
because they're really heating up, and I think to a
(23:50):
certain extent that the playoff committee might forgive quote unquote
forgive them for that loss of Presbyterian, because, as we've
talked about on this podcast, the Bears made a quarterback
switch after that game, and Mercer looks like a completely
different team with their new quarterback. So I didn't really
expect Mercer to be in this top ten, but at
five and one, if they keep on winning, they could
potentially climb into that ranking. A couple of teams I
(24:13):
thought maybe Southern Illinois, maybe Illinois State, But at the
same time, like what wins out there, could either of
them really pound the table on it and say we
deserve to be in the top ten. Illinois State is
four and two overall, four and one versus the FCS.
They competed pretty well with NDSU. But again, if you're
(24:34):
I don't mind like I already talked about, I don't
mind looking at quality losses that I do think that
tells you a lot about a team. But if that
is your best argument, it isn't a good argument. And
Illinois State their wins are Morehead State, Eastern Illinois, North Alabama,
Murray State, and so I think they're still waiting for
that ranked win to kind of put themselves into that
top ten. And then kind of the same thing with
(24:55):
Southern Illinois. I mean this, Lucas only have three D
one wins right now because they played a non D
one they also played an FBS opponent, and so they're
four and two overall, they're three and one versus the FCS.
At this point in the season, if you only have
three D one wins, are you really going to slide
above a team like Mammoth or Tennessee Tech that have
two more D one wins than you, honestly not. And
(25:16):
Southern Illinois got blown out by NDSU, so that wasn't
necessarily a competitive game. It was for a half, but
the second half the Bison ran away with it. So
there isn't really that performance or that win for Southern
Illinois in my opinion, that would put them in the
top ten. But those are just some teams that I
thought maybe it would have had an argument. It'll be
interesting to see what happens with Harvard if they keep
(25:37):
on winning their four and oh right now, but they're
not going to have a ranked win on their resume.
And so where would a tenant o Harvard team if
they do win out where they stack up. I think
that would be very interesting. And last point here, I mean,
like I talked about just a little bit ago on
the podcast, it's I'd love this top ten ranking and
(25:58):
I'd love the passion of that fans you know, have
about it. I think even though fans realize, hey, things
are going to move and shake, there's still a lot
of big games to come, but hey, we're passionate about
our team, or we're gonna fend our team and we're
gonna get into arguments with other teams. And I think
that's what makes the FCS great is you have fans
in the Dakota's arguing with teams on the East Coast,
and you have fans in Montana arguing with fans in Texas.
(26:20):
Like that. That's what makes the FCS fun because what
happens in the UAC impacts the Big Sky, and what
happens in the Big Sky impacts the valley. What happens
in the valley impacts the Silicon, what happens in the
Silicon impacts the CIA. That's what makes the FCS so
fun is everything just kind of all impacts each other
as far as playoff resumes, who's gonna be the top
four seeds, who's going to get first round buys, who's
(26:41):
going to get in or left off of the playoff bubble.
That's what makes the FCS so fun. So I love
kind of the online discourse surrounding this top ten ranking.
With that said, though, there still are a ton of
games still to come, and if we use the rankings
from the Playoff Committee, here at just some games that
still have to be Playednumber two South Kota State hosts
(27:01):
number one North Kota State, number eight. Un d still
has to host number one NDSU and number two SDSU,
number four Montana State, host number six UC Davis, number
five Montana host, number four Montana State, and number three
Tarleton State. They still have three ranked opponents to come
that are at least currently ranked right now. I know
that is one knock on Tarleton State is yeah, they
(27:23):
have the FBS win, but they don't have any ranked
wins right now. Well, those opportunities are coming because as
of right now, three opponents are still ranked in the
top twenty five polls, and so that'll be a great
test for Tarleton State. So I'll wrap it up there.
This was a mostly rather smooth solo podcast episode. Maybe
I'll do this every now and again. Probably won't be
(27:44):
a weekly thing, just because it is it can be
a challenge talking to yourself pretty much for this line.
But I will wrap up this solo episode here. Thank
you everyone for listening, and we'll see you guys. We'll
catch you guys on the flippity Flip