October 14, 2025 • 45 mins
On this episode, Sam and Zach discuss:
-3 Game Balls and a Flag from Week 7
-Projecting what they think the playoff committee’s Top 6 will be when it reveals its Top 10 ranking on Wednesday?
-Are the top two obvious? Who has the best argument for the No. 3 spot? We think we know who the five teams are to be sorted within the Top 5, but how many teams are in position for the No. 6 spot?
The podcast is presented by HERO Sports and BetMGM. Visit HERO Sports for FCS coverage and BetMGM for online betting odds.
-3 Game Balls and a Flag from Week 7
-Projecting what they think the playoff committee’s Top 6 will be when it reveals its Top 10 ranking on Wednesday?
-Are the top two obvious? Who has the best argument for the No. 3 spot? We think we know who the five teams are to be sorted within the Top 5, but how many teams are in position for the No. 6 spot?
The podcast is presented by HERO Sports and BetMGM. Visit HERO Sports for FCS coverage and BetMGM for online betting odds.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
All right, Welcome in FCS tackle football fans to another
episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast, presented by Hero
Sports and bet MGM. I'm your host, Sam Herder of
hero Sports, and I'm joined by my co host, Zach
mckinnal of FCS Football Central and also the blue Bloods. Zach,
it's gonna be a fun episode this week. I know,
(00:36):
last week we it wasn't even really on, you know,
on the docin, but I kind of just brought up
a couple of impromptu playoff pitcher questions, and you know,
that was kind of a hit with our with our listeners.
And so this week we're gonna do three game balls
in a flag to recap this last weekend. But then
we are going to dive into projecting what we think
the FCS Playoff Committee.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Is going to do.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
They will be releasing their top ten ranking tomorrow, which
is Wednesday. We're just gonna do top six. Doing a
full top ten might take a little bit too long,
and I figured let's do one more outside of the
top five, just because I think the top five, as
far as the teams might be a little obvious. Just
the ordering of that top five might switch up.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
So we'll do.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Top six projecting. This is in our rankings or how
we would see teams. It's what we are thinking. The
Playoff Committee is going to release tomorrow. So first off,
before we dive into that, how was how are you
doing and how was your your last week?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
And watching FCS.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Football, Man, it was good. I was really really impressed
with the slate of games. I think all of us
kind of conveyed the excitement, even though you know it
was obvious. The INDIASU SIU matchup was kind of the headliner,
and there was some really really good games at Jackson
Bama State game and might have been the game of
the year, one of the most exciting games I've watched
in a long time, and it's right up there with
(01:53):
the Montana State STSU game from earlier this year. And
we finally got a little bit of chaos. So we've
been I've been kind of eating for that weekend because
it feels like the FCS always has that one weekend.
Got a little taste of it. Austin p drops, Idaho drops,
but I still think, man, it's kind of sitting on
pins and needles. I feel like that big chaos weekend
is right around the corner. I'm just ready for it
(02:14):
to happen.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Yeah. Absolutely, Well let's start right there.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
I'll head it to you again for your first game
ball because I know you want to give it to
NDSU with that big ranked win.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
So talk about the Bison a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Yeah, Man, I think our listeners might be get out
if you don't. If you're not INDESU FA, you probably
tired of INDIESU being in this segment. But I mean, Sam,
what else can really be said about them? It's their
third consecutive ranked win forty five seventeen over Southern Illinois.
They've won every single game this year by seventeen points
or more. And early in the game, I was actually
(02:47):
really impressed how SIU played. They forced back to back
punts after that big Brice Lance touchdown. But from then on, man,
it was just it was a different game. And I
think right before HALFTM Sam really felt that momentum flip
when NDSU put that late scoring drive together right before halftime,
and then I believe they scored on their next six drives.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Cole Payton so good.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
I mean, I think our guy Salm from Bison sixteen
to sixty put out a tweet after this game. He
has almost as many touchdowns as he does incompletions in
the past, like three games, which is just a ridiculous
level of consistency. And this defensive line I thought played really,
really well. Keenan Wilson really shining there, Jackie Luliano finally
(03:33):
kind of getting in that rotation. I actually thought the
box scores a little bit misleading. I thought DJ Williams
played well, Sam, but what DSU did is they made
it where it was either DJ Williams or Bust That
really wasn't a ton of offense outside of him. There
were some really key drops and wants to throw in
the turnovers against this NDSU defense, they really had no shot.
This team is so dominant, and I know people are
(03:56):
looking forward to that Marker game. I am too, but
this was really This was probably the first game saying
where I'm like, Man, if they dominate Southern Illinois, They're
really really going to put a lot of people on notice.
And right now, I think they should be and probably
are the consensus number one team in the country and
the odds on favorite to win another national title at
(04:16):
the end of this year.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Yeah, I would.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Agree, and I think NDSU is I think they had
like last week or excuse me, Southcota State last week
had like four or five first place votes. Now it's
down to in the media poll. Now South Goota State
still has one first place vote, but it seems more voters,
more voters, voters are swinging toward NDSU as far as
being that number one team, and they definitely look the parts.
(04:40):
And yeah, there's just a couple of sequences there where
Southern Illinois move was moving the ball pretty well, they
cough up a turnover. Then NDSU just pounces on those
sort of those sort of opportunities. And I still think
Southern Illinois is a good team. I think they can
make some name some noise in the playoffs. It's an
interesting program, and it seems like they can never get
(05:03):
that perfect balance. And this is honestly probably the case
with a lot of teams. But there's been a few
like what was that a few years ago when SIU
just had an awesome defense, but the offense was like
averaging twenty two points a game whatever, And you know,
this year.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Offense is awesome.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
I just didn't feel great about the defense coming into
this game. And so it's been I think tough for
SIU to to really have that complimentary football. It seems
like one side of the ball is kind of really
far ahead of the other side of the ball every
other year. But I do think this Lukies are a
good team. My first game ball, I'm gonna give it
to Ablayne Christian. They got their third ranked win of
(05:39):
the season. They beat number twenty one West Georgia thirty
to thirteen. Really a dominant effortsier from able Christian and
their defense definitely answered the call. They held West Georgia
to thirty five rushing yards on sixteen carries, and that's
definitely something that West Georgia wants to do, is establish
the run. So impressive to take away that running game
(06:00):
right there. And for West Georgia, Davin Winner did not play,
even though they're head coaching ad it's sound like he
was going to play this game. And so for West
Georgia to win this game, especially without their starting quarterback,
they're gonna have to establish a run and Abileine Christian
was ebily. Christian was just not having any of that.
And offensively, Stone Earl continues to play super well two
(06:21):
hundred and forty plus passing the yards three touchdowns, I
mean Ablene Christian. I mean they're four and three overall.
Two of those losses, though, are against the FBS, and
so they're four and one versus the FCS. Their low
loss was to UIW on the road rather decisively. Even
more of a head scratcher now when you look back
on it, but they've beaten SFA and Austin P two
(06:42):
ranked teams you know at the time, and still can't
remember if SFA is back in the rankings or not.
But they do have a good looking resume. And for
West Georgia five and two now after a five and
zh start, and now they go on the road I
believe this week and face Tarleton State. So a tough
three game stretcher for West Georgia.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Yeah, yeah, Applee and Christian is kind of the case
where every time they have a big game, Sam, they
just kind of seem to flip the switch right and
they deliver in that moment. I think if they don't
win the UAC, they're gonna be a team that has
a really, really good shot even if they're only less
to say it, eight wins, Sam and maybe even seven, Right,
(07:20):
like what happens if their only losses to Tarltan could
they get in potentially with all these ranked wins, and
I mean, they're gonna have a chance to maybe even
add more in this conference because the UAC is really
really good. I just think they're one of the more
interesting cases of potential bubble teams. But again, Stone Earl's
playing really really well. My next game all I kind
(07:40):
of hinted at it in my intro Jackson State Man number.
I believe they were fifteen in the country this past weekend,
a big win over Alabama State thirty eight thirty four,
stop the Hornets on the one yard line as time expired,
the rest put one second on the clock. They found
a way to keep andrew body in this Bama State
offense out of the end zone five and one, now
three and to win the Swack. Their heavy favorite to
(08:02):
win the Swack. For me, I think they're probably the
favorite to win the Celebration Bowl. They got everything they
wanted in more offensively, they did not attempt to punt
this weekend. They had thirty yards or more on eight
of their nine drives. They had a key fumble that
really gave Alabama State a chance to stay in this game,
and make it this classic game that we saw come
down the stretch, but they had over twos for fifty
(08:25):
yards rushing, Jacobe and Morgan with five passing touchdowns at
sixty six rushing. I thought Andrew Body was great, man,
I really do think he's probably the HBC National Player
of the Year. But at the same time, my big
thing with this game, SAYM was I thought Jackson State
had the better team. Andrew Body was the superstar. And
it's kind of similar to DJ Williams against North Dakota State.
(08:45):
You can't win the game with just one player, man.
And I thought Jackson made some crucial plays, forcing a
big interception, holding Alabama State to field goals inside the twenty.
Quincy IVY was great off the edge, twelve tackles, a
big interception, half a sack. Really like what TC Taylor
has done with this Jackson team. Men, And I don't
say when we start having conversations about the best coaches
in FCS football, I know that a lot of FCS
(09:09):
fans kind of forget about the HBCUs and even in
the IVY leagues. Maybe that will change with the ivy's
joining the playoffs now, But then what TC Taylor has
done at Jackson State is super impressive. They're on the
verge of possibly winning their fourth conference title in the
past five years. Might be back to back Celebration Bowl
champs to first tops as A and T did it
a handful of years ago. TC Taylor, Man, it should
(09:30):
be in that conversation for some one of the best
coaches in FCS football right now.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Yeah, because how many times do we see a coach
come in and turn around in mid major program, whether
it's basketball, FCS, whatever, have great success, move on and
then that program just kind of, you know, falls back,
and that's not what happened. What has been happening with
Jackson State and coach Taylor has has.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Kept that momentum going.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
And you can definitely see the emotion after that game
because that was such a huge game in to take
control of the Swack East and awesome atmosphere, super intense,
crazy ending, you know, with the you know, Jackson State
go ahead score with fifty whatever seconds left and then
Alabama State drives down it seems like the game is over.
The ref's put one second on the clock, so one
(10:16):
more shot at it at the goal line.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Look like a speed option type of play. At the
end there.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
I think that's that's what they were going for, and
Jackson State just you know, stuffed that out.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
So it's just an electric end there.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
My second game ball, I'm gonna give it to Western Carolina,
who's been in this segment a few times now. They
beat Furman fifty two to seven. To me, just a
statement performance, especially defensively. That's kind of what we'll touch
on the offense here in a little bit for Western Carolina.
But defense was kind of the question of can they
get you know, enough stops to win you know games,
(10:50):
because there's you can make an argument that Western Carolina
probably has to win out and if they went out,
they would for sure be in the playoffs because they
would get the auto bid.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
But if they.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Lose one more game, they're gonna be right on the
bubble as far as at large bids. But for them
to hold furmanto seven points, and I thought Furman's offense
was pretty decent coming into this game, and Furman was
four and one coming into this game, I thought it
was a statement performance by the defense. Then offensively, I
mean Toron Dickens just continues to cement his name as
(11:20):
far as being one of the top tier quarterbacks in
the FCS. He's four and oh now as a starter.
This year, Western Carolina was zero to three without him,
and so that just goes to show what a great
quarterback can do for your team. And in his four starts,
a little more than sixteen hundred passing yards, seventeen touchdowns,
no interceptions. Of course, last week, you know he had
(11:42):
the crazy streak of completion. So he is just absolutely
going off in Western Carolina. I should mention too, Mercer
is a red hot team right now. But you look
at Mercer in Western Carolina, those are two really good
teams in the Silicon right now. Between Mercer and Western Carolina.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
You get that game for Western Carolina's homecoming on November eighth,
that's gonna be that's gonna be a really really good game.
I know we got to move on kind of quickly here,
but just real quick. If they do lose to Mercer,
and let's just say it's a close game, sound like
thirty twenty seven, it's seven point three point game and
they're sitting at eight and four, do you think the
(12:21):
committee evaluates Dickens not being there for the first two games,
Because I mean, I think me and you both agree
they probably beat Gardner, Webb and Elin if Tron's playing.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, yep, and they do. They don't play an FBS
opponent near the end of.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
No so they have the Citadel, Chattanooga Mercer Etsu and
Va Mile left on the schedule.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
So if they go eight and four with one more loss,
I think they would get in. Hard to say anything definitively,
just because we don't know exactly what the bubble is
going to look like, but I do know one criteria
is a player availability. And so if you lose three
games without your starting quarterback, but he's coming back, you know,
(13:06):
and he's since come back, and you go seven and
one with him, I do think they would to a
certain extent, to a certain extent, excuse some of those
losses and put an eight win Western Carolina team.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Into the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
I also know it was actually was it two years
ago when Western Carolina was left out of the playoffs,
and one of the reasons why was because of col
Gonzalez suffered a season ending injury, and so that that's
like the player of availability hurt Western Carolina a couple
of years ago. This year it might work in their
favor as far as getting a little bit of benefit
(13:41):
of the doubts losing those games, which you know on
paper aren't good losses for Carolina, But if you are
Western Carolina, but if you factor in Toron Dickens not
being in those games, I think maybe they can get
a little bit of benefit of the doubt from the committee.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Yeah, it also probably helps, and this will kind of
lead into my next game, ball in your flag. It
probably helps that Idaho loses because now it looks like
the Big Sky's probably only going to get four teams
in instead of five, and they probably need that six
valley team to kind of fall off. They need one
of those valley teams to really start trending downwards, whether
(14:16):
that's South Dakota, whether that's Youngstown State. And then also
it helps that Jackson State won, right because they were
a bubble buster. If Jackson State lost this weekend, they're
getting in at ten and two if they went out,
and that would have taken a bit away. And it
also helps that West George is not eligible for the
playoffs because they'd probably be on the bubble two if
they were eligible for the playoffs. So a lot of
things lining up here for Western Carolina. But my game
(14:37):
ball leads into your flag. I think we can both
kind of combo this game. My game ball goes to
Northern Colorado, big upset win over number eleven Idaho forty
nine to thirty three in the Kibbi Dome. And I
know that some fans kind of excuse us because Joshua
Wood was out, but that wasn't the problem. Sound They
allowed almost five hundred yards of total offense, thirty five
(14:59):
first half points. And you look at this program that's
only won one game over the past two years, they're
now three and three. This is the biggest win of
the Edlam era. Eric Gibson was outstanding at quarterback, three
point fifty two touchdowns. I actually really like their wide
receiving corp. Braden Monroe and Carver Cheeks are really dynamic
wide receiving duo combined from those three hundred yards and
(15:22):
as soon as like Idaho had a chance to maybe
kind of come back in the second half, Northern Colorado
put together two big scoring drives late in that game
to kind of secure the win. Also, to the turnovers
really really hurt him. I thought Cam Chaplain had a
really good game. He was a freshman on the American
last year. Ten tackles a big interception that sealed the
(15:42):
game late in the fourth quarter. But I was really
impressed in Northern Colorado and I think they're an interesting
team that could play spoiler in this big Sky race.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
Yeah, I'll get to the Idaho par part of that
in a little bit here. But my last game ball,
I'll give it to UC Davis. They remain undefeated versus
the FCS. They beat number fourteen Northern Arizona forty five
twenty four. A couple of fourth quarter touchdowns for UC
Davis to kind of pull away and win rather decisively.
(16:12):
But this was I think, you know, a big win
for UC Davis in the fact that they you know
this is now you know that you can put a
win in the in the ranked win column for them,
and a rather decisive one as well. And Kitan Pinnock
Rechert freshman continues to play at a super high level.
He goes twenty five of twenty nine nearly three hundred
and fifty yards five touchdowns. I think him and Mercers
(16:34):
Brandon Atkinson are probably the two front runners for the
Jerry Rice Award. And who knows. I think Pinnick could
I don't know ifill necessarily be a top three finisher,
but I think he could get, you know, potentially finished
in the top ten of of Walter Payton Award votes
if he keeps on playing like this. And I really
like how UC Davis's defense has been playing super disruptive,
(16:54):
and that's without the Porter and Rex Connors. I believe
Order will be back at some point. Rexwell is gone
for the year unfortunately, season ending knee injury, but they
they've gotten some splash transfers from the FCS. Colonnie Riddick
has been playing really well. Jacob Syke Harvard transfer two
(17:14):
and a half TFLs, one and a half sacks on Saturday.
So they are a program that doesn't dip into the
portal a whole lot, but when they do, it seems
like they hit on a lot of guys. I mean,
last year they had the linebacker from cal Poly Myers.
I believe like that was a splash transfer edition right there.
And they've done really well when it comes to the
transfer portal and then transition right into my flag. Yeah,
(17:36):
I'll throw it on Idaho. That's just a really bad
loss on its homecoming A really good crowd. Like you said,
Joshua Wood didn't play. He had a knee injury he
suffering against Montana. Sounds like he'll be back sooner than later,
but I don't know the exact timetable. But he does
not play defense, and allowing nearly fifty points honestly could
have been fifty points if Northern Colorado wanted to lay
(17:59):
the hammer down. Just a not a good performance by Idaho,
who now sits at two and four overall, two and
two versus the FCS. I slid them out of my
top twenty five. I just didn't feel like they've really
had a win that so far. That Garner's top twenty
five vote from me, and tough spot for Idaho maybe
in the same boat vote as South Dakota that we
(18:21):
thought maybe they'd be able to reload decently well, but
both those teams got hit pretty hard and might be
a I think both programs will be fine. I think
Idaho will be fine in the big picture, but I
think this year is going to be more of a
rebuilding project than we thought.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Yeah, and going back real quick to your UC Davis
game ball, we talked about that Cole Peyton stat Caden
Pinnock in the past two games, non total touchdown, Sam
Non incompletions. Yeah, in the past two starts for a
freshman plate he's playing ridiculous football. And I think what
you saw is you saw a ton of potential in
that first half against Mercer. I guess since the didn't count,
(18:58):
and then you saw some freshman struggles. Over the next
few weeks, it is click for him. And like you said,
I think there's gonna be an interesting conversation because you
look at with Todd Pennington not playing too well, Lampson's
improving right and he's had a really good year. It
might come down to him and Eli Gilman for the
Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year right now.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
Yeah, if it ended today, Yeah, Riot maybe if they
lean more quarterback.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
But Gilman is certainly in that conversation.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Yes, And then also too, I don't want to get
I don't think he's gonna get it because of the
team he plays on. But Michael Brisco at cal Poly
is unbelievable at wide receiver. The problem is is I
just don't know if cal Poly has got enough juice
to get him in.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
It's kind of while.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
Elajah Ponder got overlooked the past few years a defensive end.
It just didn't have the juice at cal Poly that
he would have had at other universities. But my flag
to wrap this up Austin p Number sixteen in the country,
Luke gets upset by Eastern Kentucky and I mean, correct
me if I'm wrong, Sam. It feels like Walt Wells
just kind of waits till conference play to kind of
get this thing going in the right direction.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Every year.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
They made a one last year.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
Well, well, the problem or whatever you want to call
it with EKU is they always play or it seems
like they always played two FBS opponents in September, and
so they kind of fall off the radar because they're
one in three or two and three and then two
and one versus the FCS. But everyone they kind of
fall off the radar because of those FBS losses, and
then they get into UAC play and they get an
upset and you look at them and go, oh, they're
(20:23):
actually three and one versus the FCS.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Maybe we should pay attention to them.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Yeah, Well, what a job by Eastern Kentucky this weekend.
But this one was inexcusable, kind of for Austin P.
I don't know if you had a chance to watch
this game sown, but EKU only had sixty eight yards
to total offense in the first half, but they had
one hundred yard kickoff return in a pick six to
tie the game right before halftime, and then the second
(20:49):
half just completely flip the script. With nearly three hundred
yards to total offense just in the second half. This
EKU team finds a way to get it done. But
this was not a good loss for Austin P, who
thought was in really good positions down to potentially make
a run for a top sixteen seed. They had a
big FBS win. Their only loss at the time was
to Applene Christian. They had a big win over West Georgia.
(21:11):
But now you kind of look ahead and they have
a ton of games that they're going to have to win,
a sneaky road trip to Southern Utah las ahead. They
still got to hit the road against Charlton State. Often
P just made it where there's not a ton of
room for error. Now, this was just not a good
loss in the grand scheme of thing for the Goves.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
All right, let's move on to.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
Discussing what we think the Playoff Committee is going to
do tomorrow in their Top ten reveal. This would be
their first of two top ten reveals, and the committee
this is kind of like a trialer run for them
as well, because they go through the same process to
determine this top ten as they do, you know, when
they actually form you know, the playoff brackets as far
(21:56):
as who's going to be you know, one through sixteen
seeds a day before or selection Sunday, and you know,
I'll probably have the Playoff Commitee chair on the podcast sometime,
you know, later on the season kind of talk about
the process. But to pretty much sum it up is,
and I think I've said this last week, it's not
necessarily a group think thing where they all talk about
(22:18):
who the number one seed should be and then they
all are in agreement, agree they're all in agreement and
go with the number one team. It's all individual voted
on and so they have discussions about, you know, here's
here are these teams we think deserve top eight seeds.
Let's talk about them. You know, here's their resumes, that's
compare them to each other and all that. But when
it comes to actually forming the seeds, each committee member
(22:38):
has a vote, and so they vote number one whoever,
number two, whoever, and then that spits out of voting total,
just like your typical top ten or a top twenty
five does as well. And then they do multiple votes,
so it's not just one vote. Okay, here are the
twenty four teams or the top sixteen seeds. I think
they break it down a little bit more where Okay,
this is our top ten. Let's discuss this a little
bit more, look at more data. Vote again. I think
(23:00):
there's kind of layers to that. But again, this is
each individual committee member of voting for who they think
are the top ten or whatever. Then it spits out
the total. So it isn't necessarily a group think thing.
And projecting what we think the committee is going to
do is difficult because, as I tweeted last week, there
is no rigid criteria of this is what we weigh
(23:22):
the most. It's one committee. One committee member might really
like ranked wins. Another committee member might really like strength
to schedule. Another committee member might look at the number
of D one wins you have. One committee member might
not really pay attention to who you beat that was
ranked at the time, but they may pay attention to Hey,
here's here are my top thirty five teams in the FCS.
(23:45):
How many of these teams has team a beaten versus
team be beaten? And so in that sense, it's hard
to really project ahead what we think the Playoff Committee
is going to do because there are differing opinions and
there are several new members to the Playoff Committee this year.
But we'll take a stab at it by projecting our
top six, or not our top six, but the top
(24:05):
six of what we think the Playoff Committee is going
to reveal tomorrow. We'll start with number one, work our
way down to number six because we think, you know,
the number one and even number two is probably pretty obvious.
NDSU is very very likely going to be that number
one seed for the Playoff Committee tomorrow. Six and oh
three ranked wins, both at the time of the game
(24:26):
and currently ranked wins, as well as far as teams
currently ranked South Dkota Illinois states and or excuse me,
South Dakota Illinois state in Southern Illinois three ranked wins
for the Bison, so should be the number one seed
when we see the rankings tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
Yeah, good SENS is number one, don't I don't even
think we have to spend a ton of time on them,
that they're going They're going to be number one, I
think for everybody on the committee, and I think, I mean,
do you agree that number two is going to be
South Dakota State.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Yeah, I think it'll be South Kota State. Six and
oh as well.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Three wins at the time, Sack State, Montana State, Youngstown States.
Two of those teams are still are still currently ranked.
Montana State is number five, then YOUNGSTOWND State is still
at number twenty five. I believe that one is in
the coaches pull. So yeah, I still think South Kota
State has the best win so far this year, winning
(25:20):
at Montana State, So I do believe they'll be the
number two seed. All right, move into the three seed.
Who do you have as the three seed? On what
the committee members are going to do?
Speaker 3 (25:30):
I believe it's going to be Montana personally, just they're undefeated.
You know, they're undefeated obviously five and zero against the FCS.
They have that one non D one win. But what
I think puts some over the top is they have
two ranked wins over un D and Idaho. You look
at the I believe it's the top fifty strength to schedule.
(25:51):
Their opponents have a above five hundred record against other teams.
That's something that I think really has. It might hurt
Charlton State eight in this situation, along with Tarlton not
having any ranked wins and no offense to Montana State.
I think a win over un D is the best
win out of all these teams, and I kind of
(26:13):
include that over Tarlton's win over Army. I think U
and D is really really good. I'm really high on them.
I thought that was a massive win for them. And
again Idaho that game, I know it was what forty
one to thirty I think final score really watching that game.
Montana never was not in control of that game. And
so I think Montana is going to be the three
(26:34):
seed come tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Yeah, I think they're going to go with Tarlton States.
That's more of a gut feel on what they're going
to do. They do have if you look at where
things are at currently, they do have two more Division
one wins than Montana. And you know that's something we
should mention that playing nine Dy one games can hurt you.
They do count on your resume, and so just to
(26:58):
make it easy. Let's say mont Tanna goes twelve and oh,
they'll be viewed as a twelve and oh team by
the committee member, by the committee members, but they're eleven
D one wins might be compared to Tarleton State's twelve
Division one wins, And the number of D one wins
you have is a criteria. And so I think as
we sit right now, Tarleton State having two more D
(27:19):
one wins potentially, you know, could set them apart a
little bit and have them be the number three seed,
one spot ahead of Montana. You know, strength to schedule
is pretty much on par with each other. Right now,
Tarleton State has the number thirty seven strength the schedule,
Montana is forty third. What's interesting, if you look ahead
(27:40):
projected year end strength of schedules, Tarleton State is gonna
be twenty ninth and Montana's gonna be twenty eighth. Like
that's in the grand scheme of things like that's pretty
much identical strength of schedules. Plus there's gonna be three
more ranked opponents upcoming four Taroton State, and so I
think they have an opportunity to really solidify really strong
(28:01):
playoff resume and potentially push four, you know, potentially even
a top two seed if they were able to win
out because I do think their their strength to schedule
would be would be pretty you know, dang good for
Tarleton State. So that's why I think the committee members
are gonna go with Tarleton at that three spots. Now
for me, I have Montana number three in my top
(28:21):
twenty five. I have Montana States number four, and I
have Tarleton States number five. I do feel like from
what I've seen, the Grizz and the Cats are better
teams than Tarleton State. But I do think Tarleton, with
their performances and FBS win and you know, having you know,
seven D one wins could potentially set them apart.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
No, that's fair. I mean, and I would have Tarlton
at four in my prediction here, So I would just
have Montana and Tarlton flipped from you because I'm assuming
you would have Montana at four in your projections.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Yeah, I have the griz for and they have a
really good resume as well. I mean, they have two
ranked wins on their resume and you know, one of
those wins, like you mentioned you and DA is a
really solid victory. And you know, if you want to
compare a past opponent's record. Montana does have a big
advantage there because their opponents their records are eighteen and
(29:16):
fourteen compared to Tarleton States ten and twenty six. But
then you can look at the strength of schedule and
those are pretty much comparable. Although that FBS game probably
pikes Tarleton's strength to schedule up quite a bit, but
they do have that win over the f best opponents,
So it'll be really interesting to see. I think that three,
that three four spot is probably most intriguing. Then going
(29:38):
down to number five. Who do you have at the
number five spot?
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Montana State? And I know the Bobcat fans are are
not going to love this, right they have been making
a strong case for them to go up. But again
I just what I mean. Obviously the signature won't be
in AU but we just saw UC Davis knockoff in
a U right, and so that went. How is that
win aging for them? And they just when you look
(30:04):
at the rest of their games San Diego, Mercyhurst, Eastern Washington,
Idaho State, where like what would be the number two
senator win, Like the second best thing for the resume
right now is a loss to South Dakota State, And
for me, I can't put a team higher than other
teams with better resumes just because your best you have
(30:26):
a really good loss. And so I think Montana State
is going to have a chance to add more good
wins to the resume later on. But if we're judging
it right now, in the middle of October, I think
they clearly have the fifth best resume, even though personally
I don't think they're the fifth best team out of
these ones. I think they're a little bit higher than that.
I love what the defense is doing, but we have
(30:46):
to judge this base off of resumes, and that's kind
of why I have Montana State at five.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Yeah, I have the cast at five as well. That
kind of leads me.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
What I was gonna say is I don't think it's
going to happen, but I actually not be surprised if
Montana State gets the three seed tomorrow because it's so
difficult again, like we talked about, because each committee member
kind of has a different list of criteria, and each
committee as a whole, sometimes they sometimes they kind of
(31:17):
talk about different things. Right during the selection show, they'll
have the committee chair on and sometimes they'll hammer home
you know, different parts, you know, different criteria like whether
it's you know, strength to schedule, we really value that
or you know eye test. And I remember, I can't
remember what you're it may have been last year, two
years ago. They really hammered home that they want to
(31:38):
just get the twenty four best teams in and they
ask themselves who are the best teams? Yes, resumes matter
and all that kind of paints the picture of who
these teams are, I mean, how good they are.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
But at the end of the.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Day, like, let's just ask ourselves who are the best
teams and let's put them in that order. And I
think you could argue that Montana State is a better
team than Montana in a better team than Tarleton State
right now, especially when you look at their last three games,
have just absolutely hammered Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona on the road,
who's a ranked opponent, and then Idaho State, who a
(32:08):
week before Idaho State gave Montana a scare. Now you
can flip that around and go, well, you know Montana
was on the road when they got a scare. I
mean that one Montana State was at home. Also different,
you know, matchup wise, Montana State is a tougher out
for Idaho State. So you can kind of go and
round about arguments all you want, but then you look
at the strength of schedule. You know, Montana State has
(32:30):
the number two strength of schedule right now. That has
obviously elevated quite a bit because of the Oregon game,
but they also scheduled tough and they played Southcota State,
and yes they lost that game, but they were, I mean,
every bit as good as South Kota State, just came
up a little bit short. And if the playoff committee
is very firm in South Gota State being the number
two team, I could see some saying, you know, I
(32:54):
think Montana State is just as good as South Goota State,
but we have to put them one spot behind them.
So let's let's put the Cat's number three. I would
not be surprised if that happens. I'm not gonna bet
that's gonna happen, But if the Cats are number three,
I wouldn't be like, holy crap, didn't see that coming
for you.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Okay, So obviously like we gotta put ourselves in the
committee member shoes, but also kind of curious about your
opinion because I've talked about this with other voters too,
write how much do you value the odd test more than?
Like when do you value the odd test more than resume?
Speaker 1 (33:25):
Yeah, it's a it's a tough question because someone can
If someone disagrees with your opinion, you know, they can
spin it as like if I if I if I
ranked because in my rankings, I have Montana ahead of
Montana State, and a part of that is eye test,
but a part of it two is is resume, And
(33:47):
so you could spend that if you're a Montana State fan,
be like, well, just trust your eye, like it's you
can't necessarily control the schedules you play, and you know,
to your eye, sam like Montana State has played better
these last two weeks than Montana has, you know, to
your eye.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
And I'd be like, okay, that's that's probably a fair point.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
If I ranked Montana stayed ahead of Montana and it
was because of you know, the eye test, and you know,
the Cats, even though maybe Montana has the better resume,
the Cats just to my eye look better. Some can
spin that as well, that's just biased, right, because you
could look at all you want on paper, and this
team could stack up better on paper against this team
and has you know, better wins and all that. But
(34:26):
if you just go to well, my eye tells me this,
like you're not really waning anything. There's no like substance
to that. You're just saying, well, I like this team
more than that team because of my eye. So to me,
it's difficult. But I do think it is important to
to watch games obviously and have that eye test, because
I mean, you could look at like Lee High. To me,
I'm not saying they're a top five team, but you
(34:48):
might look at them and be like, oh, they they're
massive strength of schedules eighty six, Like they have one
ranked win at the time over Richmond, who's no longer
very good. Like eh, Lee High, they're probably not very good,
but if you watch Lehigh, you go, okay, like this
front seven is really really good and they can be
pretty explosive on offense. Same thing with Tennessee Tech, Like
you watch them and you go, Okay, I know they're
(35:08):
not playing very good opponents, but like they have some
really good athletes and they're pretty well balanced on both
sides of the ball.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
So I do think eye test.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
I mean you kind of have to blend the eye
test with the resume as well to try to defend
your position.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
As best as you can.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Yeah, it's like you said, it's a balance. I think it.
It makes more sense to lean on the ODE test
if the resumes are close, But if there's a big
disparity in the resume, it's kind of hard to lean
on AD tests because then I think the I think
the person is saying that you're leaning into your biases
is probably right. Like if if if a team has
two or three more ranked wins and a tougher strength
(35:42):
to schedule, I don't really it doesn't really matter what
the AD test says, right, you have to give the
nod to the team with a significantly better resume. But
if the resumes are like you said, kind of like
with Tarlton and Montana, like would it it would make
sense to lean on the odd test, right and put
above who you think would win that hypothetical matchup. But
I think the number six seed would be the one
(36:04):
that I'm most interested to see because I don't know
how you feel. I think there's three teams I'm looking
at that could slide into that spot, and they all
would have an argument in my opinion, and I think
it starts at can I give you like my dark
horse to this one? And I actually think there's a
really good shot they could have it, And there's gonna
be some fans that are upset about it.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
Is it mamoth No?
Speaker 3 (36:26):
I think it might do? I think it might be Lehigh? Okay,
seven D one wins you mentioned with Tarlton the amount
of D one wins matter. Lehigh has seven right now,
and they have a ranked then ranked win over Richmond.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
They have that.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
They're I think twelfth in the Massive rating. Their strength
to schedule is not the highest, but their past opponent's
record is twenty three to ten right now, and really
and truly they've won all their games fairly convincingly. And
this is a team that won a playoff game last year.
And I know the committee will never admit it, right,
but past playoff performance is biased to committee some right.
(37:05):
You're not going to rank a team high that consistently
loses in the first round, that gets blown out. Lehigh
had success last year in the playoffs, and I actually
thought they played Idaho really well in that next round.
They were just young at a lot of key spots.
I think the seven to oh seven D one wins
might be enough to slide them in that spot because
I do think they have a similar resume to UC Davis,
(37:26):
who has five Division one wins. They have one ranked
win over NAU, but you look at the rest of
their schedule. Does it hurt them that that Mercer game
didn't count? And where's their next best win outside of
the NAU game? And then I think the other team
that might be up for it and people aren't gonna
like it. I really do think North Dakota should be
(37:47):
in consideration for that one. But again, four D one
wins versus seven, say, how do you put how do
you put that above? They have a ranked winner for
Youngstown State, they they're close lost to Montana, a close
lost to Kansas. They they have a top ten strength
to schedule. Is that enough to overcome the lack of
Division one wins compared to Leha?
Speaker 1 (38:08):
Yeah, I think the sixth spot is going to go
to UC Davis, but I can absolutely see an argument
for Lehigh. I think U and D potentially could be
in that mix as well. I don't think Tennessee Tech
will will be in competition for that number six spot.
Same thing with like Illinois State or like mom Ith,
(38:29):
I don't think they'll be in contention for that six spot.
So yeah, to me, it does come down to UH
to Lehigh, UC Davis or un d and Yeah, and
you could argue, you know, it's kind of the same,
the same arguments of you know, if the committee members
are really high on South Gota State, then they might
be really high on Montana State because that was a
competitive game, and you can make the case with U
(38:50):
and D and and Montana where U and D was
in control for most of that game. I ended up
barely losing. But if they're if the committee is very
high on Montana, that could help boost.
Speaker 2 (39:02):
You and D up as well.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
But I feel like they're gonna they're gonna lean UC
Davis just with that five and zero FCS record. You know,
the strength of schedule is pretty decent number fifteen, but
again that is kind of carried a little bit by
playing Washington. But they do have, you know, a really
nice ranked win from this last weekend, beating Northern Arizona
by a few touchdowns. But there are games like Utah
(39:26):
Tech was pretty close, Southern Utah was decently close. Cal
Poly that was a close game as well, and I
know some people will say a win is a win
and that's all that matters, but style points do matter,
and so like, if, like if Tennessee Tech was beating
teams by an average of seven points, I don't think
they would be a top ten team, just you know,
(39:49):
just because their strength of schedule is really, really bad.
But they for the most part have hammered all their opponents.
And I know for Tennessee Tech this last week and
against Charleston Southern was I think a fourteen point win.
I think there was some weather and play in that
one as well, But style points do matter, and I
think winning decisively matters. And so with that said, that
could play towards Lee High, who's mostly dominated it schedule
(40:12):
compared to UC Davis. But I do feel like maybe
they'll lean Davis here in this one. And you know,
part of it could be brand recognition, But I do
think ranked win, I currently ranked win, and quite a
bit of a better strength of schedule compared.
Speaker 2 (40:25):
To Lee High. That's why I would lean Davis for
that six spot.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Yeah, if I had to put money on it, I'm
going UC Davis here, But I do I do think
Lee High is the dark horse pick. There just because
of that seven and zero record, And like you said,
I don't think Tennessee Tech has a shot, and maybe
that's unfair, but the strength of schedule's not there for them.
They haven't really been tested yet. I don't I don't think.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
I mean, I'm just.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Trying to think of some other teams that are kind
of in the mix. I don't think Mamith has enough
to get up to six. They'll probably I mean, they
could be in the top ten, right, but I don't
I don't think they're going to make their way all
the way up to six. Illinois State Southern Illinois are
probably going to be toward the back end of the
top ten or maybe even just out. And so I
think those are the three teams I look at. And
the only thing that works me about North Dakota is
(41:08):
to four D one wins. So that's the only reason
I think they might be in the fringe conversation. But
it should come down to UC Davis Leeha. But like
you said that the committee, I think they're going to
like the big Sky a little bit in this conversation,
and right now, I mean we're kind of outside of them,
trying to think Holy Cross is probably the last team
that kind of got a ton of respect from the
(41:29):
committee when they were on that run with Seluca and
Jalen Cocher and the I do wonder does the Patriot
League have the pool right now to squeeze above a
big Sky school.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
Yeah, it'll be interesting, you know, to see who who
also gets into that top ten and what they do
with you know, a team like Momith who hasn't lost
quite yet, or has hasn't lost yet to an FCS opponent,
how do they compare that to Southern Illinois team who
has one FCS loss but it was rather decisive against NDSU,
(42:04):
Or like can Harvard who's still undefeated, can they crack
the top ten? Or how they view Applene Christian who
has more ranked wins than you know, then the same
amount of ranked wins as as like South Gota State
and NDSU, But they also kind of have that head
scratching loss to UIW and they also have two FBS
(42:24):
losses as well, so their overall record might not jump
off the page. So certainly fascinating to see what the
what the Playoff Committee member, what the Playoff Committee will do.
And it's just a snapshot of game so far, and
so they're not projecting ahead, but I do think it'll
give us a good look of you know, how do
they how do they value Tarleton State versus Montana? You know,
(42:46):
how do they value UC Davis versus Lehigh?
Speaker 2 (42:49):
And that it kind of.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Sets the table for what to expect for from the
playoff Committee. And I think that second reveal, which is
going to be early November, mid November, sometime around then,
that's going to be even more telling because we'll have
a whole lot more rank games played at that point
because we still have the Dakota Marker, we still have
the Brawl of the Wild, we still have you and
(43:11):
D hosting North Gooda State in South Kota State, we
still have Tarleton State, three ranked opponents still the common
So things are going to be very, very fluid. But
I am excited just to see kind of this committee,
this specific committee's type of thinking when it comes to
comparing these teams.
Speaker 3 (43:28):
Yeah, I'm so glad they're doing two rankings because it's
the first time we've really got to see how the
committee evolves their thinking throughout the season, because it just
takes a big jump in recent years. Right, they'll release
their top ten around October and then it just jumps
to the end of the season, and so we don't
really know how It will give us a better understanding
(43:50):
of how certain wins and how teams are playing on
the field, So it will give us a better idea
of how they Obviously the percentage value on everything, So
how much percent doesn't odd test count for this committee,
or does rank wins matter more? Or does division one
wins matter more? To strinct the schedule matter more. I
think it gives us a way better understanding of how
(44:11):
the Committee is viewing the landscape and how maybe an
upset changes the picture. And I think it allows us
as media members, like I know, we're all pretty accurate
when we release our bracket predictions at the end of
the years now, but we should be batting near one
hundred percent with all the data we're finally getting. I
think two sets of rankings is huge for giving us
a clear picture of how the Committee is viewing the landscape.
Speaker 2 (44:33):
Yeah, and things will be fluid too.
Speaker 1 (44:34):
I think I've mentioned this before that there's a lot
of examples in the past where Team A is ranked
ahead of Team B for the playoff Committee's top ten
reveal and they both went out. But then Team B
slides ahead of Team A, and obviously the fan base
of Team A would be like, like, what did we
do wrong? We were ahead of that other team and
we both want out, Like why do they move ahead
of us?
Speaker 2 (44:54):
That's not right?
Speaker 1 (44:55):
But you know, more ranked opponents, you know, maybe tougher
strength to schedule to end the year. So so things
can definitely move around and be fluid on that side
of things. So looking forward to that reveal tomorrow on Wednesday,
and I might have some sort of recap on it
on hero sports dot com to just get some takeaways
from that committee top ten reveal, so we can wrap
(45:17):
it up there, Zach, any final words before we log
off here?
Speaker 3 (45:21):
Man, I'm excited for the rankings another there might not
be a ton of rank matchups, but it gains sam.
I think that the weekends with not a ton of
rank matchups are usually the chaos weekend like I talked
about earlier. So hopefully we get some really really good
games this weekend and we'll get an even better picture
of what the top twenty five and what the playoff
picture should look like. Is about time to start evaluating
playoff picture, and that's my favorite time of year.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
Absolutely well, thank you Zach, thank you everyone for listening,
and we'll catch you guys on the flippity flip
All right, Welcome in FCS tackle football fans to another
episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast, presented by Hero
Sports and bet MGM. I'm your host, Sam Herder of
hero Sports, and I'm joined by my co host, Zach
mckinnal of FCS Football Central and also the blue Bloods. Zach,
it's gonna be a fun episode this week. I know,
(00:36):
last week we it wasn't even really on, you know,
on the docin, but I kind of just brought up
a couple of impromptu playoff pitcher questions, and you know,
that was kind of a hit with our with our listeners.
And so this week we're gonna do three game balls
in a flag to recap this last weekend. But then
we are going to dive into projecting what we think
the FCS Playoff Committee.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
Is going to do.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
They will be releasing their top ten ranking tomorrow, which
is Wednesday. We're just gonna do top six. Doing a
full top ten might take a little bit too long,
and I figured let's do one more outside of the
top five, just because I think the top five, as
far as the teams might be a little obvious. Just
the ordering of that top five might switch up.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
So we'll do.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Top six projecting. This is in our rankings or how
we would see teams. It's what we are thinking. The
Playoff Committee is going to release tomorrow. So first off,
before we dive into that, how was how are you
doing and how was your your last week?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
And watching FCS.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
Football, Man, it was good. I was really really impressed
with the slate of games. I think all of us
kind of conveyed the excitement, even though you know it
was obvious. The INDIASU SIU matchup was kind of the headliner,
and there was some really really good games at Jackson
Bama State game and might have been the game of
the year, one of the most exciting games I've watched
in a long time, and it's right up there with
(01:53):
the Montana State STSU game from earlier this year. And
we finally got a little bit of chaos. So we've
been I've been kind of eating for that weekend because
it feels like the FCS always has that one weekend.
Got a little taste of it. Austin p drops, Idaho drops,
but I still think, man, it's kind of sitting on
pins and needles. I feel like that big chaos weekend
is right around the corner. I'm just ready for it
(02:14):
to happen.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Yeah. Absolutely, Well let's start right there.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
I'll head it to you again for your first game
ball because I know you want to give it to
NDSU with that big ranked win.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
So talk about the Bison a little bit.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Yeah, Man, I think our listeners might be get out
if you don't. If you're not INDESU FA, you probably
tired of INDIESU being in this segment. But I mean, Sam,
what else can really be said about them? It's their
third consecutive ranked win forty five seventeen over Southern Illinois.
They've won every single game this year by seventeen points
or more. And early in the game, I was actually
(02:47):
really impressed how SIU played. They forced back to back
punts after that big Brice Lance touchdown. But from then on, man,
it was just it was a different game. And I
think right before HALFTM Sam really felt that momentum flip
when NDSU put that late scoring drive together right before halftime,
and then I believe they scored on their next six drives.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Cole Payton so good.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
I mean, I think our guy Salm from Bison sixteen
to sixty put out a tweet after this game. He
has almost as many touchdowns as he does incompletions in
the past, like three games, which is just a ridiculous
level of consistency. And this defensive line I thought played really,
really well. Keenan Wilson really shining there, Jackie Luliano finally
(03:33):
kind of getting in that rotation. I actually thought the
box scores a little bit misleading. I thought DJ Williams
played well, Sam, but what DSU did is they made
it where it was either DJ Williams or Bust That
really wasn't a ton of offense outside of him. There
were some really key drops and wants to throw in
the turnovers against this NDSU defense, they really had no shot.
This team is so dominant, and I know people are
(03:56):
looking forward to that Marker game. I am too, but
this was really This was probably the first game saying
where I'm like, Man, if they dominate Southern Illinois, They're
really really going to put a lot of people on notice.
And right now, I think they should be and probably
are the consensus number one team in the country and
the odds on favorite to win another national title at
(04:16):
the end of this year.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Yeah, I would.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
Agree, and I think NDSU is I think they had
like last week or excuse me, Southcota State last week
had like four or five first place votes. Now it's
down to in the media poll. Now South Goota State
still has one first place vote, but it seems more voters,
more voters, voters are swinging toward NDSU as far as
being that number one team, and they definitely look the parts.
(04:40):
And yeah, there's just a couple of sequences there where
Southern Illinois move was moving the ball pretty well, they
cough up a turnover. Then NDSU just pounces on those
sort of those sort of opportunities. And I still think
Southern Illinois is a good team. I think they can
make some name some noise in the playoffs. It's an
interesting program, and it seems like they can never get
(05:03):
that perfect balance. And this is honestly probably the case
with a lot of teams. But there's been a few
like what was that a few years ago when SIU
just had an awesome defense, but the offense was like
averaging twenty two points a game whatever, And you know,
this year.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Offense is awesome.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
I just didn't feel great about the defense coming into
this game. And so it's been I think tough for
SIU to to really have that complimentary football. It seems
like one side of the ball is kind of really
far ahead of the other side of the ball every
other year. But I do think this Lukies are a
good team. My first game ball, I'm gonna give it
to Ablayne Christian. They got their third ranked win of
(05:39):
the season. They beat number twenty one West Georgia thirty
to thirteen. Really a dominant effortsier from able Christian and
their defense definitely answered the call. They held West Georgia
to thirty five rushing yards on sixteen carries, and that's
definitely something that West Georgia wants to do, is establish
the run. So impressive to take away that running game
(06:00):
right there. And for West Georgia, Davin Winner did not play,
even though they're head coaching ad it's sound like he
was going to play this game. And so for West
Georgia to win this game, especially without their starting quarterback,
they're gonna have to establish a run and Abileine Christian
was ebily. Christian was just not having any of that.
And offensively, Stone Earl continues to play super well two
(06:21):
hundred and forty plus passing the yards three touchdowns, I
mean Ablene Christian. I mean they're four and three overall.
Two of those losses, though, are against the FBS, and
so they're four and one versus the FCS. Their low
loss was to UIW on the road rather decisively. Even
more of a head scratcher now when you look back
on it, but they've beaten SFA and Austin P two
(06:42):
ranked teams you know at the time, and still can't
remember if SFA is back in the rankings or not.
But they do have a good looking resume. And for
West Georgia five and two now after a five and
zh start, and now they go on the road I
believe this week and face Tarleton State. So a tough
three game stretcher for West Georgia.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Yeah, yeah, Applee and Christian is kind of the case
where every time they have a big game, Sam, they
just kind of seem to flip the switch right and
they deliver in that moment. I think if they don't
win the UAC, they're gonna be a team that has
a really, really good shot even if they're only less
to say it, eight wins, Sam and maybe even seven, Right,
(07:20):
like what happens if their only losses to Tarltan could
they get in potentially with all these ranked wins, and
I mean, they're gonna have a chance to maybe even
add more in this conference because the UAC is really
really good. I just think they're one of the more
interesting cases of potential bubble teams. But again, Stone Earl's
playing really really well. My next game all I kind
(07:40):
of hinted at it in my intro Jackson State Man number.
I believe they were fifteen in the country this past weekend,
a big win over Alabama State thirty eight thirty four,
stop the Hornets on the one yard line as time expired,
the rest put one second on the clock. They found
a way to keep andrew body in this Bama State
offense out of the end zone five and one, now
three and to win the Swack. Their heavy favorite to
(08:02):
win the Swack. For me, I think they're probably the
favorite to win the Celebration Bowl. They got everything they
wanted in more offensively, they did not attempt to punt
this weekend. They had thirty yards or more on eight
of their nine drives. They had a key fumble that
really gave Alabama State a chance to stay in this game,
and make it this classic game that we saw come
down the stretch, but they had over twos for fifty
(08:25):
yards rushing, Jacobe and Morgan with five passing touchdowns at
sixty six rushing. I thought Andrew Body was great, man,
I really do think he's probably the HBC National Player
of the Year. But at the same time, my big
thing with this game, SAYM was I thought Jackson State
had the better team. Andrew Body was the superstar. And
it's kind of similar to DJ Williams against North Dakota State.
(08:45):
You can't win the game with just one player, man.
And I thought Jackson made some crucial plays, forcing a
big interception, holding Alabama State to field goals inside the twenty.
Quincy IVY was great off the edge, twelve tackles, a
big interception, half a sack. Really like what TC Taylor
has done with this Jackson team. Men, And I don't
say when we start having conversations about the best coaches
in FCS football, I know that a lot of FCS
(09:09):
fans kind of forget about the HBCUs and even in
the IVY leagues. Maybe that will change with the ivy's
joining the playoffs now, But then what TC Taylor has
done at Jackson State is super impressive. They're on the
verge of possibly winning their fourth conference title in the
past five years. Might be back to back Celebration Bowl
champs to first tops as A and T did it
a handful of years ago. TC Taylor, Man, it should
(09:30):
be in that conversation for some one of the best
coaches in FCS football right now.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Yeah, because how many times do we see a coach
come in and turn around in mid major program, whether
it's basketball, FCS, whatever, have great success, move on and
then that program just kind of, you know, falls back,
and that's not what happened. What has been happening with
Jackson State and coach Taylor has has.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
Kept that momentum going.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
And you can definitely see the emotion after that game
because that was such a huge game in to take
control of the Swack East and awesome atmosphere, super intense,
crazy ending, you know, with the you know, Jackson State
go ahead score with fifty whatever seconds left and then
Alabama State drives down it seems like the game is over.
The ref's put one second on the clock, so one
(10:16):
more shot at it at the goal line.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Look like a speed option type of play. At the
end there.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
I think that's that's what they were going for, and
Jackson State just you know, stuffed that out.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
So it's just an electric end there.
Speaker 1 (10:30):
My second game ball, I'm gonna give it to Western Carolina,
who's been in this segment a few times now. They
beat Furman fifty two to seven. To me, just a
statement performance, especially defensively. That's kind of what we'll touch
on the offense here in a little bit for Western Carolina.
But defense was kind of the question of can they
get you know, enough stops to win you know games,
(10:50):
because there's you can make an argument that Western Carolina
probably has to win out and if they went out,
they would for sure be in the playoffs because they
would get the auto bid.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
But if they.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Lose one more game, they're gonna be right on the
bubble as far as at large bids. But for them
to hold furmanto seven points, and I thought Furman's offense
was pretty decent coming into this game, and Furman was
four and one coming into this game, I thought it
was a statement performance by the defense. Then offensively, I
mean Toron Dickens just continues to cement his name as
(11:20):
far as being one of the top tier quarterbacks in
the FCS. He's four and oh now as a starter.
This year, Western Carolina was zero to three without him,
and so that just goes to show what a great
quarterback can do for your team. And in his four starts,
a little more than sixteen hundred passing yards, seventeen touchdowns,
no interceptions. Of course, last week, you know he had
(11:42):
the crazy streak of completion. So he is just absolutely
going off in Western Carolina. I should mention too, Mercer
is a red hot team right now. But you look
at Mercer in Western Carolina, those are two really good
teams in the Silicon right now. Between Mercer and Western Carolina.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
You get that game for Western Carolina's homecoming on November eighth,
that's gonna be that's gonna be a really really good game.
I know we got to move on kind of quickly here,
but just real quick. If they do lose to Mercer,
and let's just say it's a close game, sound like
thirty twenty seven, it's seven point three point game and
they're sitting at eight and four, do you think the
(12:21):
committee evaluates Dickens not being there for the first two games,
Because I mean, I think me and you both agree
they probably beat Gardner, Webb and Elin if Tron's playing.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, yep, and they do. They don't play an FBS
opponent near the end of.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
No so they have the Citadel, Chattanooga Mercer Etsu and
Va Mile left on the schedule.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
So if they go eight and four with one more loss,
I think they would get in. Hard to say anything definitively,
just because we don't know exactly what the bubble is
going to look like, but I do know one criteria
is a player availability. And so if you lose three
games without your starting quarterback, but he's coming back, you know,
(13:06):
and he's since come back, and you go seven and
one with him, I do think they would to a
certain extent, to a certain extent, excuse some of those
losses and put an eight win Western Carolina team.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Into the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
I also know it was actually was it two years
ago when Western Carolina was left out of the playoffs,
and one of the reasons why was because of col
Gonzalez suffered a season ending injury, and so that that's
like the player of availability hurt Western Carolina a couple
of years ago. This year it might work in their
favor as far as getting a little bit of benefit
(13:41):
of the doubts losing those games, which you know on
paper aren't good losses for Carolina, But if you are
Western Carolina, but if you factor in Toron Dickens not
being in those games, I think maybe they can get
a little bit of benefit of the doubt from the committee.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
Yeah, it also probably helps, and this will kind of
lead into my next game, ball in your flag. It
probably helps that Idaho loses because now it looks like
the Big Sky's probably only going to get four teams
in instead of five, and they probably need that six
valley team to kind of fall off. They need one
of those valley teams to really start trending downwards, whether
(14:16):
that's South Dakota, whether that's Youngstown State. And then also
it helps that Jackson State won, right because they were
a bubble buster. If Jackson State lost this weekend, they're
getting in at ten and two if they went out,
and that would have taken a bit away. And it
also helps that West George is not eligible for the
playoffs because they'd probably be on the bubble two if
they were eligible for the playoffs. So a lot of
things lining up here for Western Carolina. But my game
(14:37):
ball leads into your flag. I think we can both
kind of combo this game. My game ball goes to
Northern Colorado, big upset win over number eleven Idaho forty
nine to thirty three in the Kibbi Dome. And I
know that some fans kind of excuse us because Joshua
Wood was out, but that wasn't the problem. Sound They
allowed almost five hundred yards of total offense, thirty five
(14:59):
first half points. And you look at this program that's
only won one game over the past two years, they're
now three and three. This is the biggest win of
the Edlam era. Eric Gibson was outstanding at quarterback, three
point fifty two touchdowns. I actually really like their wide
receiving corp. Braden Monroe and Carver Cheeks are really dynamic
wide receiving duo combined from those three hundred yards and
(15:22):
as soon as like Idaho had a chance to maybe
kind of come back in the second half, Northern Colorado
put together two big scoring drives late in that game
to kind of secure the win. Also, to the turnovers
really really hurt him. I thought Cam Chaplain had a
really good game. He was a freshman on the American
last year. Ten tackles a big interception that sealed the
(15:42):
game late in the fourth quarter. But I was really
impressed in Northern Colorado and I think they're an interesting
team that could play spoiler in this big Sky race.
Speaker 1 (15:51):
Yeah, I'll get to the Idaho par part of that
in a little bit here. But my last game ball,
I'll give it to UC Davis. They remain undefeated versus
the FCS. They beat number fourteen Northern Arizona forty five
twenty four. A couple of fourth quarter touchdowns for UC
Davis to kind of pull away and win rather decisively.
(16:12):
But this was I think, you know, a big win
for UC Davis in the fact that they you know
this is now you know that you can put a
win in the in the ranked win column for them,
and a rather decisive one as well. And Kitan Pinnock
Rechert freshman continues to play at a super high level.
He goes twenty five of twenty nine nearly three hundred
and fifty yards five touchdowns. I think him and Mercers
(16:34):
Brandon Atkinson are probably the two front runners for the
Jerry Rice Award. And who knows. I think Pinnick could
I don't know ifill necessarily be a top three finisher,
but I think he could get, you know, potentially finished
in the top ten of of Walter Payton Award votes
if he keeps on playing like this. And I really
like how UC Davis's defense has been playing super disruptive,
(16:54):
and that's without the Porter and Rex Connors. I believe
Order will be back at some point. Rexwell is gone
for the year unfortunately, season ending knee injury, but they
they've gotten some splash transfers from the FCS. Colonnie Riddick
has been playing really well. Jacob Syke Harvard transfer two
(17:14):
and a half TFLs, one and a half sacks on Saturday.
So they are a program that doesn't dip into the
portal a whole lot, but when they do, it seems
like they hit on a lot of guys. I mean,
last year they had the linebacker from cal Poly Myers.
I believe like that was a splash transfer edition right there.
And they've done really well when it comes to the
transfer portal and then transition right into my flag. Yeah,
(17:36):
I'll throw it on Idaho. That's just a really bad
loss on its homecoming A really good crowd. Like you said,
Joshua Wood didn't play. He had a knee injury he
suffering against Montana. Sounds like he'll be back sooner than later,
but I don't know the exact timetable. But he does
not play defense, and allowing nearly fifty points honestly could
have been fifty points if Northern Colorado wanted to lay
(17:59):
the hammer down. Just a not a good performance by Idaho,
who now sits at two and four overall, two and
two versus the FCS. I slid them out of my
top twenty five. I just didn't feel like they've really
had a win that so far. That Garner's top twenty
five vote from me, and tough spot for Idaho maybe
in the same boat vote as South Dakota that we
(18:21):
thought maybe they'd be able to reload decently well, but
both those teams got hit pretty hard and might be
a I think both programs will be fine. I think
Idaho will be fine in the big picture, but I
think this year is going to be more of a
rebuilding project than we thought.
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Yeah, and going back real quick to your UC Davis
game ball, we talked about that Cole Peyton stat Caden
Pinnock in the past two games, non total touchdown, Sam
Non incompletions. Yeah, in the past two starts for a
freshman plate he's playing ridiculous football. And I think what
you saw is you saw a ton of potential in
that first half against Mercer. I guess since the didn't count,
(18:58):
and then you saw some freshman struggles. Over the next
few weeks, it is click for him. And like you said,
I think there's gonna be an interesting conversation because you
look at with Todd Pennington not playing too well, Lampson's
improving right and he's had a really good year. It
might come down to him and Eli Gilman for the
Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year right now.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
Yeah, if it ended today, Yeah, Riot maybe if they
lean more quarterback.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
But Gilman is certainly in that conversation.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
Yes, And then also too, I don't want to get
I don't think he's gonna get it because of the
team he plays on. But Michael Brisco at cal Poly
is unbelievable at wide receiver. The problem is is I
just don't know if cal Poly has got enough juice
to get him in.
Speaker 2 (19:37):
It's kind of while.
Speaker 3 (19:38):
Elajah Ponder got overlooked the past few years a defensive end.
It just didn't have the juice at cal Poly that
he would have had at other universities. But my flag
to wrap this up Austin p Number sixteen in the country,
Luke gets upset by Eastern Kentucky and I mean, correct
me if I'm wrong, Sam. It feels like Walt Wells
just kind of waits till conference play to kind of
get this thing going in the right direction.
Speaker 2 (20:00):
Every year.
Speaker 3 (20:00):
They made a one last year.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
Well, well, the problem or whatever you want to call
it with EKU is they always play or it seems
like they always played two FBS opponents in September, and
so they kind of fall off the radar because they're
one in three or two and three and then two
and one versus the FCS. But everyone they kind of
fall off the radar because of those FBS losses, and
then they get into UAC play and they get an
upset and you look at them and go, oh, they're
(20:23):
actually three and one versus the FCS.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Maybe we should pay attention to them.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Yeah, Well, what a job by Eastern Kentucky this weekend.
But this one was inexcusable, kind of for Austin P.
I don't know if you had a chance to watch
this game sown, but EKU only had sixty eight yards
to total offense in the first half, but they had
one hundred yard kickoff return in a pick six to
tie the game right before halftime, and then the second
(20:49):
half just completely flip the script. With nearly three hundred
yards to total offense just in the second half. This
EKU team finds a way to get it done. But
this was not a good loss for Austin P, who
thought was in really good positions down to potentially make
a run for a top sixteen seed. They had a
big FBS win. Their only loss at the time was
to Applene Christian. They had a big win over West Georgia.
(21:11):
But now you kind of look ahead and they have
a ton of games that they're going to have to win,
a sneaky road trip to Southern Utah las ahead. They
still got to hit the road against Charlton State. Often
P just made it where there's not a ton of
room for error. Now, this was just not a good
loss in the grand scheme of thing for the Goves.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
All right, let's move on to.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
Discussing what we think the Playoff Committee is going to
do tomorrow in their Top ten reveal. This would be
their first of two top ten reveals, and the committee
this is kind of like a trialer run for them
as well, because they go through the same process to
determine this top ten as they do, you know, when
they actually form you know, the playoff brackets as far
(21:56):
as who's going to be you know, one through sixteen
seeds a day before or selection Sunday, and you know,
I'll probably have the Playoff Commitee chair on the podcast sometime,
you know, later on the season kind of talk about
the process. But to pretty much sum it up is,
and I think I've said this last week, it's not
necessarily a group think thing where they all talk about
(22:18):
who the number one seed should be and then they
all are in agreement, agree they're all in agreement and
go with the number one team. It's all individual voted
on and so they have discussions about, you know, here's
here are these teams we think deserve top eight seeds.
Let's talk about them. You know, here's their resumes, that's
compare them to each other and all that. But when
it comes to actually forming the seeds, each committee member
(22:38):
has a vote, and so they vote number one whoever,
number two, whoever, and then that spits out of voting total,
just like your typical top ten or a top twenty
five does as well. And then they do multiple votes,
so it's not just one vote. Okay, here are the
twenty four teams or the top sixteen seeds. I think
they break it down a little bit more where Okay,
this is our top ten. Let's discuss this a little
bit more, look at more data. Vote again. I think
(23:00):
there's kind of layers to that. But again, this is
each individual committee member of voting for who they think
are the top ten or whatever. Then it spits out
the total. So it isn't necessarily a group think thing.
And projecting what we think the committee is going to
do is difficult because, as I tweeted last week, there
is no rigid criteria of this is what we weigh
(23:22):
the most. It's one committee. One committee member might really
like ranked wins. Another committee member might really like strength
to schedule. Another committee member might look at the number
of D one wins you have. One committee member might
not really pay attention to who you beat that was
ranked at the time, but they may pay attention to Hey,
here's here are my top thirty five teams in the FCS.
(23:45):
How many of these teams has team a beaten versus
team be beaten? And so in that sense, it's hard
to really project ahead what we think the Playoff Committee
is going to do because there are differing opinions and
there are several new members to the Playoff Committee this year.
But we'll take a stab at it by projecting our
top six, or not our top six, but the top
(24:05):
six of what we think the Playoff Committee is going
to reveal tomorrow. We'll start with number one, work our
way down to number six because we think, you know,
the number one and even number two is probably pretty obvious.
NDSU is very very likely going to be that number
one seed for the Playoff Committee tomorrow. Six and oh
three ranked wins, both at the time of the game
(24:26):
and currently ranked wins, as well as far as teams
currently ranked South Dkota Illinois states and or excuse me,
South Dakota Illinois state in Southern Illinois three ranked wins
for the Bison, so should be the number one seed
when we see the rankings tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
Yeah, good SENS is number one, don't I don't even
think we have to spend a ton of time on them,
that they're going They're going to be number one, I
think for everybody on the committee, and I think, I mean,
do you agree that number two is going to be
South Dakota State.
Speaker 2 (24:55):
Yeah, I think it'll be South Kota State. Six and
oh as well.
Speaker 1 (24:59):
Three wins at the time, Sack State, Montana State, Youngstown States.
Two of those teams are still are still currently ranked.
Montana State is number five, then YOUNGSTOWND State is still
at number twenty five. I believe that one is in
the coaches pull. So yeah, I still think South Kota
State has the best win so far this year, winning
(25:20):
at Montana State, So I do believe they'll be the
number two seed. All right, move into the three seed.
Who do you have as the three seed? On what
the committee members are going to do?
Speaker 3 (25:30):
I believe it's going to be Montana personally, just they're undefeated.
You know, they're undefeated obviously five and zero against the FCS.
They have that one non D one win. But what
I think puts some over the top is they have
two ranked wins over un D and Idaho. You look
at the I believe it's the top fifty strength to schedule.
(25:51):
Their opponents have a above five hundred record against other teams.
That's something that I think really has. It might hurt
Charlton State eight in this situation, along with Tarlton not
having any ranked wins and no offense to Montana State.
I think a win over un D is the best
win out of all these teams, and I kind of
(26:13):
include that over Tarlton's win over Army. I think U
and D is really really good. I'm really high on them.
I thought that was a massive win for them. And
again Idaho that game, I know it was what forty
one to thirty I think final score really watching that game.
Montana never was not in control of that game. And
so I think Montana is going to be the three
(26:34):
seed come tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Yeah, I think they're going to go with Tarlton States.
That's more of a gut feel on what they're going
to do. They do have if you look at where
things are at currently, they do have two more Division
one wins than Montana. And you know that's something we
should mention that playing nine Dy one games can hurt you.
They do count on your resume, and so just to
(26:58):
make it easy. Let's say mont Tanna goes twelve and oh,
they'll be viewed as a twelve and oh team by
the committee member, by the committee members, but they're eleven
D one wins might be compared to Tarleton State's twelve
Division one wins, And the number of D one wins
you have is a criteria. And so I think as
we sit right now, Tarleton State having two more D
(27:19):
one wins potentially, you know, could set them apart a
little bit and have them be the number three seed,
one spot ahead of Montana. You know, strength to schedule
is pretty much on par with each other. Right now,
Tarleton State has the number thirty seven strength the schedule,
Montana is forty third. What's interesting, if you look ahead
(27:40):
projected year end strength of schedules, Tarleton State is gonna
be twenty ninth and Montana's gonna be twenty eighth. Like
that's in the grand scheme of things like that's pretty
much identical strength of schedules. Plus there's gonna be three
more ranked opponents upcoming four Taroton State, and so I
think they have an opportunity to really solidify really strong
(28:01):
playoff resume and potentially push four, you know, potentially even
a top two seed if they were able to win
out because I do think their their strength to schedule
would be would be pretty you know, dang good for
Tarleton State. So that's why I think the committee members
are gonna go with Tarleton at that three spots. Now
for me, I have Montana number three in my top
(28:21):
twenty five. I have Montana States number four, and I
have Tarleton States number five. I do feel like from
what I've seen, the Grizz and the Cats are better
teams than Tarleton State. But I do think Tarleton, with
their performances and FBS win and you know, having you know,
seven D one wins could potentially set them apart.
Speaker 3 (28:43):
No, that's fair. I mean, and I would have Tarlton
at four in my prediction here, So I would just
have Montana and Tarlton flipped from you because I'm assuming
you would have Montana at four in your projections.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Yeah, I have the griz for and they have a
really good resume as well. I mean, they have two
ranked wins on their resume and you know, one of
those wins, like you mentioned you and DA is a
really solid victory. And you know, if you want to
compare a past opponent's record. Montana does have a big
advantage there because their opponents their records are eighteen and
(29:16):
fourteen compared to Tarleton States ten and twenty six. But
then you can look at the strength of schedule and
those are pretty much comparable. Although that FBS game probably
pikes Tarleton's strength to schedule up quite a bit, but
they do have that win over the f best opponents,
So it'll be really interesting to see. I think that three,
that three four spot is probably most intriguing. Then going
(29:38):
down to number five. Who do you have at the
number five spot?
Speaker 3 (29:42):
Montana State? And I know the Bobcat fans are are
not going to love this, right they have been making
a strong case for them to go up. But again
I just what I mean. Obviously the signature won't be
in AU but we just saw UC Davis knockoff in
a U right, and so that went. How is that
win aging for them? And they just when you look
(30:04):
at the rest of their games San Diego, Mercyhurst, Eastern Washington,
Idaho State, where like what would be the number two
senator win, Like the second best thing for the resume
right now is a loss to South Dakota State, And
for me, I can't put a team higher than other
teams with better resumes just because your best you have
(30:26):
a really good loss. And so I think Montana State
is going to have a chance to add more good
wins to the resume later on. But if we're judging
it right now, in the middle of October, I think
they clearly have the fifth best resume, even though personally
I don't think they're the fifth best team out of
these ones. I think they're a little bit higher than that.
I love what the defense is doing, but we have
(30:46):
to judge this base off of resumes, and that's kind
of why I have Montana State at five.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Yeah, I have the cast at five as well. That
kind of leads me.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
What I was gonna say is I don't think it's
going to happen, but I actually not be surprised if
Montana State gets the three seed tomorrow because it's so
difficult again, like we talked about, because each committee member
kind of has a different list of criteria, and each
committee as a whole, sometimes they sometimes they kind of
(31:17):
talk about different things. Right during the selection show, they'll
have the committee chair on and sometimes they'll hammer home
you know, different parts, you know, different criteria like whether
it's you know, strength to schedule, we really value that
or you know eye test. And I remember, I can't
remember what you're it may have been last year, two
years ago. They really hammered home that they want to
(31:38):
just get the twenty four best teams in and they
ask themselves who are the best teams? Yes, resumes matter
and all that kind of paints the picture of who
these teams are, I mean, how good they are.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
But at the end of the.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Day, like, let's just ask ourselves who are the best
teams and let's put them in that order. And I
think you could argue that Montana State is a better
team than Montana in a better team than Tarleton State
right now, especially when you look at their last three games,
have just absolutely hammered Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona on the road,
who's a ranked opponent, and then Idaho State, who a
(32:08):
week before Idaho State gave Montana a scare. Now you
can flip that around and go, well, you know Montana
was on the road when they got a scare. I
mean that one Montana State was at home. Also different,
you know, matchup wise, Montana State is a tougher out
for Idaho State. So you can kind of go and
round about arguments all you want, but then you look
at the strength of schedule. You know, Montana State has
(32:30):
the number two strength of schedule right now. That has
obviously elevated quite a bit because of the Oregon game,
but they also scheduled tough and they played Southcota State,
and yes they lost that game, but they were, I mean,
every bit as good as South Kota State, just came
up a little bit short. And if the playoff committee
is very firm in South Gota State being the number
two team, I could see some saying, you know, I
(32:54):
think Montana State is just as good as South Goota State,
but we have to put them one spot behind them.
So let's let's put the Cat's number three. I would
not be surprised if that happens. I'm not gonna bet
that's gonna happen, But if the Cats are number three,
I wouldn't be like, holy crap, didn't see that coming
for you.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Okay, So obviously like we gotta put ourselves in the
committee member shoes, but also kind of curious about your
opinion because I've talked about this with other voters too,
write how much do you value the odd test more than?
Like when do you value the odd test more than resume?
Speaker 1 (33:25):
Yeah, it's a it's a tough question because someone can
If someone disagrees with your opinion, you know, they can
spin it as like if I if I if I
ranked because in my rankings, I have Montana ahead of
Montana State, and a part of that is eye test,
but a part of it two is is resume, And
(33:47):
so you could spend that if you're a Montana State fan,
be like, well, just trust your eye, like it's you
can't necessarily control the schedules you play, and you know,
to your eye, sam like Montana State has played better
these last two weeks than Montana has, you know, to
your eye.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
And I'd be like, okay, that's that's probably a fair point.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
If I ranked Montana stayed ahead of Montana and it
was because of you know, the eye test, and you know,
the Cats, even though maybe Montana has the better resume,
the Cats just to my eye look better. Some can
spin that as well, that's just biased, right, because you
could look at all you want on paper, and this
team could stack up better on paper against this team
and has you know, better wins and all that. But
(34:26):
if you just go to well, my eye tells me this,
like you're not really waning anything. There's no like substance
to that. You're just saying, well, I like this team
more than that team because of my eye. So to me,
it's difficult. But I do think it is important to
to watch games obviously and have that eye test, because
I mean, you could look at like Lee High. To me,
I'm not saying they're a top five team, but you
(34:48):
might look at them and be like, oh, they they're
massive strength of schedules eighty six, Like they have one
ranked win at the time over Richmond, who's no longer
very good. Like eh, Lee High, they're probably not very good,
but if you watch Lehigh, you go, okay, like this
front seven is really really good and they can be
pretty explosive on offense. Same thing with Tennessee Tech, Like
you watch them and you go, Okay, I know they're
(35:08):
not playing very good opponents, but like they have some
really good athletes and they're pretty well balanced on both
sides of the ball.
Speaker 2 (35:13):
So I do think eye test.
Speaker 1 (35:15):
I mean you kind of have to blend the eye
test with the resume as well to try to defend
your position.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
As best as you can.
Speaker 3 (35:21):
Yeah, it's like you said, it's a balance. I think it.
It makes more sense to lean on the ODE test
if the resumes are close, But if there's a big
disparity in the resume, it's kind of hard to lean
on AD tests because then I think the I think
the person is saying that you're leaning into your biases
is probably right. Like if if if a team has
two or three more ranked wins and a tougher strength
(35:42):
to schedule, I don't really it doesn't really matter what
the AD test says, right, you have to give the
nod to the team with a significantly better resume. But
if the resumes are like you said, kind of like
with Tarlton and Montana, like would it it would make
sense to lean on the odd test, right and put
above who you think would win that hypothetical matchup. But
I think the number six seed would be the one
(36:04):
that I'm most interested to see because I don't know
how you feel. I think there's three teams I'm looking
at that could slide into that spot, and they all
would have an argument in my opinion, and I think
it starts at can I give you like my dark
horse to this one? And I actually think there's a
really good shot they could have it, And there's gonna
be some fans that are upset about it.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
Is it mamoth No?
Speaker 3 (36:26):
I think it might do? I think it might be Lehigh? Okay,
seven D one wins you mentioned with Tarlton the amount
of D one wins matter. Lehigh has seven right now,
and they have a ranked then ranked win over Richmond.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
They have that.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
They're I think twelfth in the Massive rating. Their strength
to schedule is not the highest, but their past opponent's
record is twenty three to ten right now, and really
and truly they've won all their games fairly convincingly. And
this is a team that won a playoff game last year.
And I know the committee will never admit it, right,
but past playoff performance is biased to committee some right.
(37:05):
You're not going to rank a team high that consistently
loses in the first round, that gets blown out. Lehigh
had success last year in the playoffs, and I actually
thought they played Idaho really well in that next round.
They were just young at a lot of key spots.
I think the seven to oh seven D one wins
might be enough to slide them in that spot because
I do think they have a similar resume to UC Davis,
(37:26):
who has five Division one wins. They have one ranked
win over NAU, but you look at the rest of
their schedule. Does it hurt them that that Mercer game
didn't count? And where's their next best win outside of
the NAU game? And then I think the other team
that might be up for it and people aren't gonna
like it. I really do think North Dakota should be
(37:47):
in consideration for that one. But again, four D one
wins versus seven, say, how do you put how do
you put that above? They have a ranked winner for
Youngstown State, they they're close lost to Montana, a close
lost to Kansas. They they have a top ten strength
to schedule. Is that enough to overcome the lack of
Division one wins compared to Leha?
Speaker 1 (38:08):
Yeah, I think the sixth spot is going to go
to UC Davis, but I can absolutely see an argument
for Lehigh. I think U and D potentially could be
in that mix as well. I don't think Tennessee Tech
will will be in competition for that number six spot.
Same thing with like Illinois State or like mom Ith,
(38:29):
I don't think they'll be in contention for that six spot.
So yeah, to me, it does come down to UH
to Lehigh, UC Davis or un d and Yeah, and
you could argue, you know, it's kind of the same,
the same arguments of you know, if the committee members
are really high on South Gota State, then they might
be really high on Montana State because that was a
competitive game, and you can make the case with U
(38:50):
and D and and Montana where U and D was
in control for most of that game. I ended up
barely losing. But if they're if the committee is very
high on Montana, that could help boost.
Speaker 2 (39:02):
You and D up as well.
Speaker 1 (39:03):
But I feel like they're gonna they're gonna lean UC
Davis just with that five and zero FCS record. You know,
the strength of schedule is pretty decent number fifteen, but
again that is kind of carried a little bit by
playing Washington. But they do have, you know, a really
nice ranked win from this last weekend, beating Northern Arizona
by a few touchdowns. But there are games like Utah
(39:26):
Tech was pretty close, Southern Utah was decently close. Cal
Poly that was a close game as well, and I
know some people will say a win is a win
and that's all that matters, but style points do matter,
and so like, if, like if Tennessee Tech was beating
teams by an average of seven points, I don't think
they would be a top ten team, just you know,
(39:49):
just because their strength of schedule is really, really bad.
But they for the most part have hammered all their opponents.
And I know for Tennessee Tech this last week and
against Charleston Southern was I think a fourteen point win.
I think there was some weather and play in that
one as well, But style points do matter, and I
think winning decisively matters. And so with that said, that
could play towards Lee High, who's mostly dominated it schedule
(40:12):
compared to UC Davis. But I do feel like maybe
they'll lean Davis here in this one. And you know,
part of it could be brand recognition, But I do
think ranked win, I currently ranked win, and quite a
bit of a better strength of schedule compared.
Speaker 2 (40:25):
To Lee High. That's why I would lean Davis for
that six spot.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Yeah, if I had to put money on it, I'm
going UC Davis here, But I do I do think
Lee High is the dark horse pick. There just because
of that seven and zero record, And like you said,
I don't think Tennessee Tech has a shot, and maybe
that's unfair, but the strength of schedule's not there for them.
They haven't really been tested yet. I don't I don't think.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
I mean, I'm just.
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Trying to think of some other teams that are kind
of in the mix. I don't think Mamith has enough
to get up to six. They'll probably I mean, they
could be in the top ten, right, but I don't
I don't think they're going to make their way all
the way up to six. Illinois State Southern Illinois are
probably going to be toward the back end of the
top ten or maybe even just out. And so I
think those are the three teams I look at. And
the only thing that works me about North Dakota is
(41:08):
to four D one wins. So that's the only reason
I think they might be in the fringe conversation. But
it should come down to UC Davis Leeha. But like
you said that the committee, I think they're going to
like the big Sky a little bit in this conversation,
and right now, I mean we're kind of outside of them,
trying to think Holy Cross is probably the last team
that kind of got a ton of respect from the
(41:29):
committee when they were on that run with Seluca and
Jalen Cocher and the I do wonder does the Patriot
League have the pool right now to squeeze above a
big Sky school.
Speaker 1 (41:42):
Yeah, it'll be interesting, you know, to see who who
also gets into that top ten and what they do
with you know, a team like Momith who hasn't lost
quite yet, or has hasn't lost yet to an FCS opponent,
how do they compare that to Southern Illinois team who
has one FCS loss but it was rather decisive against NDSU,
(42:04):
Or like can Harvard who's still undefeated, can they crack
the top ten? Or how they view Applene Christian who
has more ranked wins than you know, then the same
amount of ranked wins as as like South Gota State
and NDSU, But they also kind of have that head
scratching loss to UIW and they also have two FBS
(42:24):
losses as well, so their overall record might not jump
off the page. So certainly fascinating to see what the
what the Playoff Committee member, what the Playoff Committee will do.
And it's just a snapshot of game so far, and
so they're not projecting ahead, but I do think it'll
give us a good look of you know, how do
they how do they value Tarleton State versus Montana? You know,
(42:46):
how do they value UC Davis versus Lehigh?
Speaker 2 (42:49):
And that it kind of.
Speaker 1 (42:50):
Sets the table for what to expect for from the
playoff Committee. And I think that second reveal, which is
going to be early November, mid November, sometime around then,
that's going to be even more telling because we'll have
a whole lot more rank games played at that point
because we still have the Dakota Marker, we still have
the Brawl of the Wild, we still have you and
(43:11):
D hosting North Gooda State in South Kota State, we
still have Tarleton State, three ranked opponents still the common
So things are going to be very, very fluid. But
I am excited just to see kind of this committee,
this specific committee's type of thinking when it comes to
comparing these teams.
Speaker 3 (43:28):
Yeah, I'm so glad they're doing two rankings because it's
the first time we've really got to see how the
committee evolves their thinking throughout the season, because it just
takes a big jump in recent years. Right, they'll release
their top ten around October and then it just jumps
to the end of the season, and so we don't
really know how It will give us a better understanding
(43:50):
of how certain wins and how teams are playing on
the field, So it will give us a better idea
of how they Obviously the percentage value on everything, So
how much percent doesn't odd test count for this committee,
or does rank wins matter more? Or does division one
wins matter more? To strinct the schedule matter more. I
think it gives us a way better understanding of how
(44:11):
the Committee is viewing the landscape and how maybe an
upset changes the picture. And I think it allows us
as media members, like I know, we're all pretty accurate
when we release our bracket predictions at the end of
the years now, but we should be batting near one
hundred percent with all the data we're finally getting. I
think two sets of rankings is huge for giving us
a clear picture of how the Committee is viewing the landscape.
Speaker 2 (44:33):
Yeah, and things will be fluid too.
Speaker 1 (44:34):
I think I've mentioned this before that there's a lot
of examples in the past where Team A is ranked
ahead of Team B for the playoff Committee's top ten
reveal and they both went out. But then Team B
slides ahead of Team A, and obviously the fan base
of Team A would be like, like, what did we
do wrong? We were ahead of that other team and
we both want out, Like why do they move ahead
of us?
Speaker 2 (44:54):
That's not right?
Speaker 1 (44:55):
But you know, more ranked opponents, you know, maybe tougher
strength to schedule to end the year. So so things
can definitely move around and be fluid on that side
of things. So looking forward to that reveal tomorrow on Wednesday,
and I might have some sort of recap on it
on hero sports dot com to just get some takeaways
from that committee top ten reveal, so we can wrap
(45:17):
it up there, Zach, any final words before we log
off here?
Speaker 3 (45:21):
Man, I'm excited for the rankings another there might not
be a ton of rank matchups, but it gains sam.
I think that the weekends with not a ton of
rank matchups are usually the chaos weekend like I talked
about earlier. So hopefully we get some really really good
games this weekend and we'll get an even better picture
of what the top twenty five and what the playoff
picture should look like. Is about time to start evaluating
playoff picture, and that's my favorite time of year.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
Absolutely well, thank you Zach, thank you everyone for listening,
and we'll catch you guys on the flippity flip
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