September 5, 2025 • 11 mins
Kerry Lutz and Edward Siddell break down the economic forces driving today’s markets and what lies ahead. From Jerome Powell’s signals on interest rates to the shifting dynamics of U.S.–China trade, Siddell explains why he sees The Bullish Forecast taking shape. He predicts a full 1% rate cut over the next year, highlights strategic moves in tariff and visa policy, and points to the opportunities these shifts create for private investment and revenue growth. The conversation also explores the housing market, where locked-in mortgage rates keep many homeowners from moving, yet open doors for investors who know where to look. Despite the challenges, Siddell’s outlook is clear: momentum is building, and the path forward looks bullish. Find Ed here: https://egsifinancial.com Find Kerry here: http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/ and here: https://inflation.cafe Kerry's New Book “The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster” is now a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
But I do believe the market is going to finish
up stronger probably you know, sixty six hundred at the
end of the year, and I do. Going in the
next year again, I'm very very bullish. When you see
the Russell do as well as it has done just
since April, that's really good indication of what's to come
because that's the lifebread of America small business.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
So going into next year.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy
five hundred, so we're very very bullish on the markets
in the economy.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to
thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
(00:54):
Network now more than ever.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, we were
back with Edward Sidell and you find Eddie of course
at e g SI Financial dot com. Eddie, it's great
to have you back on. So we got some numbers
we got GDP numbers, tarriffs, trade, what's going on here?
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Well, thanks for having me back, you know what, a
lot of news and it's all heading in the right direction.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
There's really nothing.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
That has been unexpected except for one one very important thing,
which is a pal speech in Jackson Hole, you know,
indicating and and you know, floating out that trial balloon
that they're going to lower rates. You know, we believe
that he probably should have done it sooner, but I
think there's so much economic pressure, not from the outside,
(01:53):
but I think they finally really started looking at the
numbers as well as the uh uh, the governors of
the Fed uh and you started to see that with
a lot of Fed governor's going against Powell and voting
against and so yeah, I think they're.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Going to lower rate.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
So it was his speech that was a little bit shocking.
I thought it was going to be the other way.
But with GDP numbers coming in, that was not shocking.
We were expecting that because of the trade and balance
and the reduction of the trade deficit, because of the tariffs.
You know, the PPI numbers. I mean, honestly, I don't
want to say that they're worthless, but you really can't
(02:30):
depend on them because even since then Biden administration, they've
been inaccurate. They've been updating and redoing those numbers, you know,
a month over month, rerising those downwards. And you know
we're seeing that even now. So you know, really just
looking at the real data, economic data, we're headed in
the right direction. So I'm very very bullishing in the economy,
(02:51):
in the markets.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
Really thinks. So, but what about those tariffs that we're
going to throw the world to global depression? Smooth holly,
and you know, remember the main and all that good stuff, right.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Yeah, you know what, the world did not come to
an end, uh for for sure. And you know, you
and I we actually talked about this earlier in the
year and it was really you know, we talked about uh,
you know, tariffs, uh you know, as you know, taxes
versus tactics, and really it's that reciprocity.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
It's it's nice to finally have.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
A leader of America that can negotiate on on behalf
of its citizens that it's populous to our benefit instead
of to our detriment. So this is this is exciting
stuff going forward.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Not to mention, I mean that the CBO you know
how they are.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
They're very hawkish on estimates, especially as it relates to
revenues coming in. And for them to say they're expecting
over three trillion dollars in revenues over the next ten years,
you know, it's it's uh, these are very very exciting times.
Not to mention, you know, all the private investment coming
into the US as a result of these negotiations going forward,
(04:03):
So companies are on board again. We're already starting to
see the trade and balance as reflected in the GDP
numbers that came out today.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
So we're in the right direction, all right. So we're
in the right direction. The terrorists didn't, didn't cause the
world to end. We're still working out some things with
China though, but it looks like the rest of the
world's kind of falling into line, aren't they.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Absolutely?
Speaker 1 (04:28):
And to your point, so you brought up China and
you know, again negotiations and tactics. So Trump yesterday, what
did he say? So he announced, you know, he would
allow six hundred thousand visas for Chinese students to come
into the US. I know there was a lot of
backlash on it. But the first thing that came to
my mind is he's negotiating. He's trying to get China
(04:50):
to come to the table, and he can automatic. I mean,
he can just as quickly as he said that, he
can change his mind and cut those visas off. So
he is trying to get China back to the table
and get really what we want. So and I'm sure
there's going to be a meeting in the mind somewhere
in between. Right. That's when it's a good negotiation, when
no one gets what they want.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
You know, like China with an intellectual property theft is
like war with canons. Right, yeah, absolutely absolutely they can.
They really that's their business model. They're really going to
change a business model just because Trump says no mos Yeah,
exactly exactly.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
And and they're playing the long game when they know
that they only half to wait. You know, the reality
is three and a half more years and then we
have a new administration coming in. So they're biding our time,
their time, and if we can get something in place
between now and then, we can boost production on our
side and within our borders of prescription meds and other things,
(05:52):
and really become more of a manufacturing society than we
are right now. Instead of just one hundred percent consumption.
That's going to benefit us. And you know, and then
again you know China, it's really going to give them
pause and be willing to negotiate going for further after
this administration is done.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
Yeah, well we will see. I guess the proof of
the pudding is in the tasting here. So you're seeing
rate cuts. How much do you think rates are coming down?
You know, I was listening today.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
You heard some of the commentators pundits talk about a
big rate cut of fifty basis points.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
I don't see that.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
You know, we see maybe a total of fifty basis
points this year, once in September and maybe once again
in November December, and that's it. We do believe going
forward over the next twelve months, we'll see you know,
one percent or maybe one and a quarter percent.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
But that's about it.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Okay, Well, hey, every little bit helps, right Housing. What's
your take on housing?
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Well, you know, when when we're looking at at the
debt as it relates to interest rates right in in
housing debt and being making it more affordable. Really, what
it's going to do is it's going to free some
of the housing up because you have some of our
clients they want to downsize, but it does not make
(07:22):
sense for them to downsize and pay the same amount
that they're paying now for a smaller house, because right
now they're paying you know, maybe two and a quarter
percent or two and a half percent, and and go
as high as six and a half percent. So as
rates come down, it's going to allow them to downsize
and and free up some of this these uh, these
(07:43):
other homes for first and second time home buyers, all
the way across the board. So again, I think the
housing problem is bigger than just interest rates. But that's
a really good.
Speaker 4 (07:54):
Start, all right, So, uh yeah, I don't think interest
rates are enough to solve it because well a lot
of it was caused by lower interest rates. People with
three three and a half percent mortgages, they don't want
to move because they're going to get a six six
and a half percent mortgage, right, and that's that's a
lot of money. So even if you want to downsize,
(08:16):
you can't really afford to downsize unless you buy your
place for cash somehow.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
Right, Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, it's fiscally irresponsible
to you know, get house half your size and impay
the same amount or more.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
Yeah, so, so we got a lot of work to
do there. And I haven't looked at the housing ETF,
homebuilder ETF, and the homebuilder share prices. What have they
been doing lately?
Speaker 2 (08:48):
You know what? Honestly I haven't either. I do know that.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Housing sales have gone up just a little bit throughout
the summer. We did have a down month in July,
but you know, overall, as far as that ETF goes, honestly,
I have not been tracking it.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Okay, well we got to start tracking it again because
I have a feeling it's going to get important very quickly.
Any partying comments here, what you think the economy is
going to be doing and will we see a pickup
in the fourth quarter?
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Yeah, I think we're going to see a little pullback
between now and October. There's going to be some profit taking,
which is justified, and I like that anytime you see
you pull back, that's an opportunity. But I do believe
the market is going to finish up stronger, probably you know,
sixty six hundred at the end of the year, and
(09:42):
I do going into next year again, I'm very very bullish.
When you see the Russell do as well, as it
has done just since April. That's really good indication of
what's to come because that's the lifebread of America small business.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
So going into the next year.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy
five hundred. So we're very, very bullish on the markets
in the economy.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
All right, that's what we'd like to hear. The more
bullish the better. Of course, they got any questions for
Eddie or myself? What do you think GDP is going
to be doing? Where are we heading? Precious metals prices
going up?
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Is that?
Speaker 4 (10:24):
Is that the canary in the gold mine? What are
your thoughts? Email address kl Atcarrie LUTs dot com. And
of course if you want to find Eddie like we
said e GSI Financial dot com and Eddie, we'll talk
to you again soon.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Thanks great, Thanks Garry, I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
Cruis
But I do believe the market is going to finish
up stronger probably you know, sixty six hundred at the
end of the year, and I do. Going in the
next year again, I'm very very bullish. When you see
the Russell do as well as it has done just
since April, that's really good indication of what's to come
because that's the lifebread of America small business.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
So going into next year.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy
five hundred, so we're very very bullish on the markets
in the economy.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to
thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
(00:54):
Network now more than ever.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey, we were
back with Edward Sidell and you find Eddie of course
at e g SI Financial dot com. Eddie, it's great
to have you back on. So we got some numbers
we got GDP numbers, tarriffs, trade, what's going on here?
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Well, thanks for having me back, you know what, a
lot of news and it's all heading in the right direction.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
There's really nothing.
Speaker 1 (01:31):
That has been unexpected except for one one very important thing,
which is a pal speech in Jackson Hole, you know,
indicating and and you know, floating out that trial balloon
that they're going to lower rates. You know, we believe
that he probably should have done it sooner, but I
think there's so much economic pressure, not from the outside,
(01:53):
but I think they finally really started looking at the
numbers as well as the uh uh, the governors of
the Fed uh and you started to see that with
a lot of Fed governor's going against Powell and voting
against and so yeah, I think they're.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Going to lower rate.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
So it was his speech that was a little bit shocking.
I thought it was going to be the other way.
But with GDP numbers coming in, that was not shocking.
We were expecting that because of the trade and balance
and the reduction of the trade deficit, because of the tariffs.
You know, the PPI numbers. I mean, honestly, I don't
want to say that they're worthless, but you really can't
(02:30):
depend on them because even since then Biden administration, they've
been inaccurate. They've been updating and redoing those numbers, you know,
a month over month, rerising those downwards. And you know
we're seeing that even now. So you know, really just
looking at the real data, economic data, we're headed in
the right direction. So I'm very very bullishing in the economy,
(02:51):
in the markets.
Speaker 4 (02:52):
Really thinks. So, but what about those tariffs that we're
going to throw the world to global depression? Smooth holly,
and you know, remember the main and all that good stuff, right.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
Yeah, you know what, the world did not come to
an end, uh for for sure. And you know, you
and I we actually talked about this earlier in the
year and it was really you know, we talked about uh,
you know, tariffs, uh you know, as you know, taxes
versus tactics, and really it's that reciprocity.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
It's it's nice to finally have.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
A leader of America that can negotiate on on behalf
of its citizens that it's populous to our benefit instead
of to our detriment. So this is this is exciting
stuff going forward.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Not to mention, I mean that the CBO you know
how they are.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
They're very hawkish on estimates, especially as it relates to
revenues coming in. And for them to say they're expecting
over three trillion dollars in revenues over the next ten years,
you know, it's it's uh, these are very very exciting times.
Not to mention, you know, all the private investment coming
into the US as a result of these negotiations going forward,
(04:03):
So companies are on board again. We're already starting to
see the trade and balance as reflected in the GDP
numbers that came out today.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
So we're in the right direction, all right. So we're
in the right direction. The terrorists didn't, didn't cause the
world to end. We're still working out some things with
China though, but it looks like the rest of the
world's kind of falling into line, aren't they.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Absolutely?
Speaker 1 (04:28):
And to your point, so you brought up China and
you know, again negotiations and tactics. So Trump yesterday, what
did he say? So he announced, you know, he would
allow six hundred thousand visas for Chinese students to come
into the US. I know there was a lot of
backlash on it. But the first thing that came to
my mind is he's negotiating. He's trying to get China
(04:50):
to come to the table, and he can automatic. I mean,
he can just as quickly as he said that, he
can change his mind and cut those visas off. So
he is trying to get China back to the table
and get really what we want. So and I'm sure
there's going to be a meeting in the mind somewhere
in between. Right. That's when it's a good negotiation, when
no one gets what they want.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
You know, like China with an intellectual property theft is
like war with canons. Right, yeah, absolutely absolutely they can.
They really that's their business model. They're really going to
change a business model just because Trump says no mos Yeah,
exactly exactly.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
And and they're playing the long game when they know
that they only half to wait. You know, the reality
is three and a half more years and then we
have a new administration coming in. So they're biding our time,
their time, and if we can get something in place
between now and then, we can boost production on our
side and within our borders of prescription meds and other things,
(05:52):
and really become more of a manufacturing society than we
are right now. Instead of just one hundred percent consumption.
That's going to benefit us. And you know, and then
again you know China, it's really going to give them
pause and be willing to negotiate going for further after
this administration is done.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
Yeah, well we will see. I guess the proof of
the pudding is in the tasting here. So you're seeing
rate cuts. How much do you think rates are coming down?
You know, I was listening today.
Speaker 1 (06:25):
You heard some of the commentators pundits talk about a
big rate cut of fifty basis points.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
I don't see that.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
You know, we see maybe a total of fifty basis
points this year, once in September and maybe once again
in November December, and that's it. We do believe going
forward over the next twelve months, we'll see you know,
one percent or maybe one and a quarter percent.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
But that's about it.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Okay, Well, hey, every little bit helps, right Housing. What's
your take on housing?
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Well, you know, when when we're looking at at the
debt as it relates to interest rates right in in
housing debt and being making it more affordable. Really, what
it's going to do is it's going to free some
of the housing up because you have some of our
clients they want to downsize, but it does not make
(07:22):
sense for them to downsize and pay the same amount
that they're paying now for a smaller house, because right
now they're paying you know, maybe two and a quarter
percent or two and a half percent, and and go
as high as six and a half percent. So as
rates come down, it's going to allow them to downsize
and and free up some of this these uh, these
(07:43):
other homes for first and second time home buyers, all
the way across the board. So again, I think the
housing problem is bigger than just interest rates. But that's
a really good.
Speaker 4 (07:54):
Start, all right, So, uh yeah, I don't think interest
rates are enough to solve it because well a lot
of it was caused by lower interest rates. People with
three three and a half percent mortgages, they don't want
to move because they're going to get a six six
and a half percent mortgage, right, and that's that's a
lot of money. So even if you want to downsize,
(08:16):
you can't really afford to downsize unless you buy your
place for cash somehow.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
Right, Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, it's fiscally irresponsible
to you know, get house half your size and impay
the same amount or more.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
Yeah, so, so we got a lot of work to
do there. And I haven't looked at the housing ETF,
homebuilder ETF, and the homebuilder share prices. What have they
been doing lately?
Speaker 2 (08:48):
You know what? Honestly I haven't either. I do know that.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
Housing sales have gone up just a little bit throughout
the summer. We did have a down month in July,
but you know, overall, as far as that ETF goes, honestly,
I have not been tracking it.
Speaker 4 (09:04):
Okay, well we got to start tracking it again because
I have a feeling it's going to get important very quickly.
Any partying comments here, what you think the economy is
going to be doing and will we see a pickup
in the fourth quarter?
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Yeah, I think we're going to see a little pullback
between now and October. There's going to be some profit taking,
which is justified, and I like that anytime you see
you pull back, that's an opportunity. But I do believe
the market is going to finish up stronger, probably you know,
sixty six hundred at the end of the year, and
(09:42):
I do going into next year again, I'm very very bullish.
When you see the Russell do as well, as it
has done just since April. That's really good indication of
what's to come because that's the lifebread of America small business.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
So going into the next year.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Next year, actually we're seeing the smp be over seventy
five hundred. So we're very, very bullish on the markets
in the economy.
Speaker 4 (10:08):
All right, that's what we'd like to hear. The more
bullish the better. Of course, they got any questions for
Eddie or myself? What do you think GDP is going
to be doing? Where are we heading? Precious metals prices
going up?
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Is that?
Speaker 4 (10:24):
Is that the canary in the gold mine? What are
your thoughts? Email address kl Atcarrie LUTs dot com. And
of course if you want to find Eddie like we
said e GSI Financial dot com and Eddie, we'll talk
to you again soon.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Thanks great, Thanks Garry, I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
Cruis
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