Episode #215 - Vince Lanci and the Trump Powell Accord - Gold Goats 'n Guns Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:20):
Hello, and welcome to the Gold, Goats and Guns podcast
for April twenty fifth, twenty twenty five. My name is
donal Luongo, and we have a lot to talk about.
And after the last two episodes with Kaitlin Lelong and
Brent Johnson, it's almost like we have to have the
financial Heavy Hitter trilogy. So we had Caitlin Long, Star Wars,
we had, we had Brent Johnson, The Empire strikes back
or the Dollar strikes back, and now we've got my

(00:41):
good friend and campadre Vinzilanci is here of Goldfix in
order to talk about Well, I'm not really sure, but
I have a distinct feeling. It's you know, I don't
think Donald Trump is a Jedi in any way, matter,
shape or form. I think he's the thereof but he's
the return of something and it's kind of cool. So
I don't know, paraf monster. I let this go with
the Vince, How are you about what's going on?

Speaker 2 (01:02):
I'm good. I'm good. When you said that, I was
thinking of uh, like I was. He's Batman, you know,
and and and that's not necessarily a common He's he's
the he's forcing the issue.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
That's what he is yeah, Batman. Actually the meme for me,
it was funny. I was talking to I was doing
a podcast yesterday and I said, you know, for most
of the twenty tens, the Obama as joker meme that
was out there when they somebody recolored a picture of
Barack Obama as right, and it was the joker from

(01:33):
the killing joke from as Brian Bland's version of the
killing was was unbelievable, right, it was such a good image.
I'm like the other day, I'm like, but you know
what I put together with a meme the other day
using groc of Donald Trump sitting at his desk signing
executive orders, dresses V from B from Benetta, and I'm like,
that's your meme of twenty twenty five. Yeah, it's just

(01:56):
I think I think I think I captured it. And
I hate the bustle. For this time, I'm going to
bust my hand, pat myself on the back. I'm going
to do it. I'm taking credits this time.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
You've never done that before.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
No, no, no, no, I always say I'm not busting my hand,
pat myself on the back. Look, I have thought, you
know when you're look, look when you have a track record,
and both of us have very very good track records,
and for a variety of different reasons. One of the
things that's one of the things that you and I
talk about before we got started this morning, which we
see the mark, we see the same things from different perspectives,
right right. It is very easy to get lost in

(02:27):
your own you know, success, and let your confirmation bias
and let your bias overwhelm your analysis. And one of
the things that I really do try to do is
to bring on people who are challenge but who are
not going to be adversarial because I'm because I'm already
enough of the difference it is. I don't want to
have to like defend my turf on my own.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
But you don't mean mentally challenged to you, I mean
that's offensive, No.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
I mean perceptionally challenged like that. You know, So what
do you so? I know that one of the things
that you and I we're talking about before we got
started was, you know, where you're out there in the
markets and on and on Twitter today doing your thing
where you're criticizing Trump for a lot of the things
are going on. I've been pretty much like you know,

(03:14):
I don't I don't even care me. I'm like, I'm
not worried about some of those little things, but well
I see them because I kind of see the whole
big picture. I want to get into that. I think
it's a very important little bit of balance here to
talk about. You know, what you see is as Trump
doing wrong and in the context for and everything else.

Speaker 2 (03:31):
Generally speaking, I don't care about politicians that are in charge,
but I do care about them having a plan and
and and uh. Look from conversations with people uh that
have known him over the years and are close with
his daughter, I could say the following. He's he's an
actual patriot. Okay, he's a real estate classic corporatists, which

(03:57):
you know as a label, but it basically means he
doesn't like finance people. He is a patriot. And even
though he doesn't let unions, you'd rather reward labor than government.
And so maybe that's a yellow dog page. I don't
know what it is. But as a real estate person, see
see as a real estate this is his makeup. Is
So I'm getting into his makeup because I'm looking at

(04:19):
his temperament.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
Right.

Speaker 2 (04:21):
And when the US went from manufacturing to services, we
went globalized, right, So seventies, eighties eight It started in
the eighties, right. So the thing is every corporatist who
could became an exporter or went to NAFTA. But there's

(04:43):
one type of capitalist corporatist I can't and that's a
real estate guy. Real estate people are domestic. You can't
sell your I mean, you can operate overseas, don't get
me wrong, but you're locked into domestic. And so what
happened is during the whole financialization of the country, right,
leverage bangs stocks. Well, I'm sure he did well for himself.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
But during the library years, really to be a that
libraries right.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
Right, his his his product is limited. He can't sell
fucking hershey bars to India, you know, he can't do
those things. He can't cut a deal with China for
a supply chain of real estate. He can't do that.
And so he shifted to branding, you know, and and
and see classic, especially New Yorkers. Classic real estate people

(05:33):
hate fucking finance people. That's why he had no problem
bankruptcy anyway. So going forward, Trump won. He had an
idea he surrounded himself with the wrong people. That he
surround himself with sick of fans because he was insecure.
I can't believe he's insecure at this level, but he was,
and and it's short circuited. And so with that like

(05:54):
under my belt, I'm like, all right, so here we go.
Let me see if he's if he's if he's different,
and his attitude is different, his his demeanor is different.
He's not acting like a guy who still has to
impress to mainstream media. He's dismissive. Now he wh when
he talks, like when he talks like you know, at first,

(06:14):
when he would use those superlatives or actually those simple words,
those one syllable words like we're going like for example,
he talks about the gold one, we're going to find
the gold. It's going to be there and it's going
to be beautiful. Now and Trump won, I would have said, God,
what the fuck is he talking about? Like who talks
like that? Thinking I want him to talk like an Obama? Right?

(06:35):
But now I'm watching him because he's now he's saying
it with confidence, and I go, oh, no, he's a
parent talking to four year olds and they're all like that,
And I go, I'm all about Trump. When he does that,
I'm like I get this now. He's basically projecting, you know.
And of course he's monetizing everything he can for himself,
and that's fine, but he's doing anything right. So so

(06:57):
the last week or two I started to get nervous
because this is where the whole the criticism comes in.
I'm looking for signs that there's abandonment, that he's getting frustrated.
And certainly he's a guy who likes to dominate the
news cycle. So dominating a news cycle for me means
it's like market making. You're just like, keep the camera
on you, and when something's not going good, you changed

(07:18):
you changed direction. As a trader, I did that. As
a market maker. You make a market and everything, and
then you just keep moving like a shark. And then
eventually the thing that shows weakness you pounce on, and
the press will just keep locking into you because they
want to keep their jobs. And then he stopped talking,
and he stopped talking because I believe, pretty confidently, I

(07:41):
believe he stopped talking because the market started going against him.
Stocks were down, which he expected. Okay, the dollars down,
which is a bonus, right, and oils down, that's a bonus,
so net it sucks, but he can handle it, and
he can always point to pal. But the bond markets

(08:02):
started crapping out, and we're gonna get into ahole of
your part of that as well, I'm sure. But then
he shut up, and I said, oh shit, that's not
good that he's shutting up, right, And for a week,
for a week, I was getting concerned that maybe there
was some internal turmoil. And then right, okay, So then
I'm like, oh, I want to stop.

Speaker 1 (08:22):
I'm listening.

Speaker 2 (08:23):
People are gonna stop quitting on him again. You know
that type of ship or or or or or Howard Lutnik,
who I do not know except to say that I
do not like him. I don't like what he stands for.
I was on Wall Street during nine to eleven, right,
so I was there without getting into the details of it,
except to say that after nine to eleven, people in

(08:48):
my community rallied to help him, and I saw how
that turned out, and I said, this guy's you know,
I just I didn't. I didn't like him. So anyway,
the reason I bringing that up is because, okay, Scott,
if he quits, I'm nervous, yes, right, Okay, If Luton
it quits, I'm happy, yep, But if Luttony quits, but

(09:08):
if Lutnik gets fired, I'm not happy. So because once
he starts firing people, even though it might be the
right person to fire, it destabilized everything. So I was
really nervous for a couple of days. And and and
I'm actually I think that made a sarcastic comment today,
like I think, what did Trump say? He said something like,
hold on, give me a second.

Speaker 1 (09:29):
It's it was.

Speaker 2 (09:30):
It was one of those all caps off the tape things.
He made a comment like, oh, I'm talking to G.
You know we're going to have a great deal now.
Four years ago, eight years ago, I would have said,
I would have said, oh, shut the fuck up, you
lie bastard, right, and then G would be like, we're

(09:50):
not talking, and I would actually think G was being honest.
And now here we are later years later, and I
know that he's not uh doing anything except speaking to
his base because he can't have his poll numbers go
too low. Anyway, I'm going off on a tangent except
the same we know.

Speaker 1 (10:07):
You're really not then, So that's just so continue.

Speaker 2 (10:10):
So this is this past week, Uh, this past week,
he got the right person in front of her microphone. Right,
Scott Bessett is actually becoming I thought Bessett was was see.
I thought Best was a shitty, unconfident person because of
the way he was talking. And now I rise he
was just nervous because he's getting he's getting better at it.

(10:33):
You know. It's kind of like first time you go
up in front of the class, even though you're the
smartest kid in the class. You know, same.

Speaker 1 (10:39):
Idea, right, this stuff hard man, right now.

Speaker 2 (10:43):
Hard exactly exactly. So so uh and what the Solomon
the chair, this is. This is what made me turn
and say we're gonna be okay, okay, at least there's
so many turned and say we're not going bad, like
Trump's not going bad. It's it's when Goldman Sachs as CEO.
Solomon said two days ago, he said, uh, it would

(11:06):
really be nice. Basically, he was saying, it would really
be nice that we heard something from the administration. And
I went, I went, uh, then the administration is going
to say something because they pre arranged that, right, So
that's that that's the message, And sure enough the message
comes out and the stock market stabilizes. I don't care
about stocks in that sense. But the bond market stabilizes,

(11:27):
and now I'm like, all right, so he stops shitting
on Pal. I thought they had an accord and I
guess that was wrong or maybe the coord shredded. Uh.
But now, like Solomon says something, Trump responds best at
addresses in a big way, and the markets have calmed down.
Even if he is bullshitting about this really great deal
or that really great deal, he's back. And as long

(11:49):
as you don't like, like, for today, what did he
talk about today? Oh? I get it. Uh, somebody talked
about Greenland and I'm like, oh great, that's really fucking
what we should be talking about now. But again, there
to their good games. I know it's something we talk
about anyway, but I mean in the context of the
stock market, he's changing into stuff.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
Sure.

Speaker 2 (12:06):
Anyway, I'm happy. I'm happy with the last forty eight hours.
That's what I'm saying.

Speaker 1 (12:10):
Well, good, And the last forty eight hours are the
Thursday and Friday of the week. When okay, So now
I'm going to lay out for you what I think
is going on with Trump and the news cycle. And
this is why you don't have to this is why
you cannot react in real time to things that are happening.
Because here's the cycle. This is the latter rints weekly
news cycle, and Trump's never lost control of it. From
my perspective, which is on Thursday and Friday, he starts

(12:31):
the next He sees the market, he sees the narrative
as to what he wants to, he wants them to
react to. So, because they coordinate on Saturday and Sunday,
he plays golf on Saturday, and they actually try to
turn that against him that he goes and plays golf
while they're formulating their freaking plans. So he starts the

(12:51):
process of going, all right, this is what we're going
to talk about next week, and I'm going to talk
about that now, and then I'm going to go play golf.
I'm going to shut up for twenty four hours. They
get around, they get they get together, so talking to
the Democrats and the media and everybody else and Davas,
mostly Davas, it's not the Chinese. And then they sit
around all weekend. They circle jerk each other, they they
they work out there. They get out the whiteboards at

(13:14):
you know, at the at the all the millennial Brownstones
on buying all on Brownstones over in Brooklyn that run
this whole fucking thing through, thank you, And so then
they game plan it all and and okay, so what's
our strategy for next week? And then they write down
all the talking points that they send out the Emily's
of a Sunday night markets and that's sent out about

(13:36):
three o'clock because Sydney opens about five City of London
starts it's it's it's games in Sydney Market and they
start shaping the market for the European Open and then
the New York Open, and then they media blitz everything
starting at three am on the London Open, starting with
Bloomberg's and then the Financial Times and they and then
we talked and then yeah, and then and then we

(13:57):
talk about that, and then they dominate the news cycle
from Monday in the first part of Tuesday, and then
Trump changes the game on late either late Tuesday or
on Wednesday, right right, and then moves us in a
different direction and then latherins repeat every fucking week. That's
what's been going on. It's been masterful to watch, and

(14:18):
he's not slowing down. What did he do after he
he said I'm not gonna fire Powell on Monday. So
on Thursday he goes out there, he goes he goes,
I'm ah fucking pissed off with Powell and all this stuff,
and then they and then they formulated them, Oh good week,
he's weak on Powell. We can use that. And then
Elizabeth Warren comes out and says the president can't put

(14:38):
pressure on the FED chairman and threw in his independence
like like you didn't do five fucking times when Powell
didn't cut interest rates to help Joe Biden and Kamala
Harris back in March, fucking you you hunt? So no,
what this is what goes on? And so we had
that day out themselves. They make themselves look fucking ridiculous. Everybody,
including Manuel maccrone fault fell for this going I think

(15:01):
I think the Euro can replace the dollar is the
global reserve currency. And everybody looked at Hi. I'm like,
the only thing that's going to get replaced here is you,
Like from funck you this is crazy. I'm like, the
only thing, the only thing he's doing to the only
market that he is spurring investment in his guillotines, Like
that's what's going on there. So that happened, and then

(15:23):
what is? What is? And then the markets are augittery,
and they're up on Monday and they're down on Tuesday
and all this all this nonsense, and they open well
and oil is a mess, and you know God wants.

Speaker 2 (15:34):
Us to have a depression.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
They really do, Yeah, they really do. And then Trump says, oh,
I was never gonna fire A Powell? Oh yeah, what
are you talking about? And that was Wednesday, and then
the markets and then the markets and then and then
the markets left because and now we're and now we're
talking about Russia and Ukraine.

Speaker 2 (15:52):
Okay, hold on, before you go to Russia Ukraine, I
want to I want to throw a little right right, Okay, Okay,
it's funny. It's funny because you're what you described there,
just my own personal like perception as it was happening. Uh.
When he said I'm not going to fire pal okay,
eight years ago, I would have said, oh, you can't

(16:14):
fucking do that. Ship man. You're inspiring your your uninspiring
confidence where you're inspiring anyway. But but now, but now
I'm looking at it going he's talking to four year olds,
and what do you say to four year olds? You say,
I changed my mind you don't justify it, you don't
say why, you just say, now, I'm not going to
do it. I'm not going to do it, and then

(16:35):
they ask why. I meanwhile, you're already talking about something else.
It's fucking it really is kind of good. I really
do later. I'm enjoying, you know, I'm really enjoying that. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (16:47):
Okay, So so I can't tell you how much I
had this, how much time I had to spend over
the last over those five days, talking people ledge about
Powell because no one could figure out what the side
was to this, because they're like, well, because he's in
generally like, dudes, I need you to calm down a
little bit and understand that there's a bigger there's a

(17:09):
bigger thing here. He sent ascent out there during all
of it and persent it known that, Hey, man, Jay
and I have lunch every week every Monday. Last week
was you know, last week I went to his I
went to his crib. This week, he's coming to mind, like,
you know.

Speaker 2 (17:25):
There's an accord, man, there's a fucking accord. You didn't
have even though like see, I gotta be like I
called them having an accord. Like when he started I said, okay,
because I know I know Besten's plan, and I know
Bestens plan would be the way to execute Trump's vision.
And I went, Okay, we need weaker we need lower rates,
we need a weaker dollar, we need cheaper oil, and

(17:47):
then POW will take care of the stocks. And that
was the plan that I thought. What happened and it
and it would have happened, except you know, call what
you want. Maybe he tactically overplayed the TIFFs, and I
believe he may have, but that's not his style. He's
going to go over the top and see who links first.
And people are blinking right now. So when he is
attacking Pal this time, everyone's like, he's attacking Palace. I'm like,

(18:10):
he is, but not like he used to. It's not real,
He's not like and I was like, this is bullshit,
this is showmanship. And you know, Pale and best sent
are on the same fucking page. Which is why, which
is why if Pal's not Look, I can go either
way on the whole. Pal should cut shit and cut
but there's a reason Pal's not cutting and it has

(18:33):
to do with our bonds. And I'm sure right now,
ninety nine percent sure that best sense like we need
you to cut. He's like, dude, the bond market's little unstable.
If it's your fucking with us, if it's China fucking
with us, I don't know, but we need the bond
market to be stable before I cut. Get that taken
care of. Come back to me, Throw the shit at me.
I don't care. Do whatever else you have to do.

(18:53):
Just please don't do stimmy checks this time. And I'll
be there when it happens. And I think that's what's
going on. I really do.

Speaker 1 (19:00):
U and I agree, and I think that what Powell
is going to say is and look the net effect
of all of this. Let's now, let's now, let's now,
let's step back from all of the wrangling and the
interesting headlines and the talking points and the tactics and
the motivations and all that bullshit. Let's step back and strategically,
let's look at where we are. Okay, Well, Trump, Scott

(19:20):
Trump has sent JD Vance over to uh India and
is cutting a big deal with the with India, which
forced the Brits to uh To to open up a
war between Indian and Pakistan. No shot, but big deal there.
India is now making their that's is now making their choice.
We're coming into the Canadian elections. It's now boxing Mark Karnian.

(19:42):
That Mark Karni is now the agent provocateur, and he
has now been outed as the guy who if he
does win, which I'm not sure he is, but if
he does win, he's going to then attack the United
States through the Canadian uh through the bond market, via
the Canadian Central Bank, which is which was and I've
got t I S data which supports this, by the way,

(20:03):
and then you have all and then but in reality,
we have all these countries talking to us. Japan has
pledged itself into the United States. Shiba and his government
who all said we're gonna work with the United States.
India is on board. The Chinese asked for Trump to
change his rhetoric and be less combative and more respectful.

(20:24):
He did. So, you know, they're going back and forth.
And now you know when she says, when Trump says,
for example, oh our God, yeah, we're talking, and then
she turns around and says there have been no talks.
That's things that's classic asient the domestic domestic for the
for the domestic Chinese consumption. Right, well, you're.

Speaker 2 (20:44):
Too fucking biased, man like. Look, look I'm gonna push
back on it and say they're both saving face. Okay, No,
perfectly reasonable Trump. We had a great conversation. I'm coming
over to his house for Christmas, and you know we're gonna,
you know, fucking have a No, that didn't happen. Gee,
we didn't talk at all. No, that didn't happen. They're

(21:05):
both playing to their home crowds. Of course, they can't
popularity drop anymore, and G can be replaced, so I
think anyway.

Speaker 1 (21:14):
So ultimately, Vincent, what I'm getting at here is that
what happened, Go look at the bond market. Europe went
and did Europe in Canada and whoever in the mix
of maybe even a little bit of Chinese action, they
went after the US bond market. They tried to blow
up the fucking sofa strip. They tried to blow that

(21:36):
fucking trade up hard. They failed, failed miserably, and in
the end, when you look at the ten year yield,
it hasn't moved.

Speaker 2 (21:46):
That's right.

Speaker 1 (21:47):
I mean net Net on every Friday afternoon, it's somewhere
around four point three percent. It's down twenty basis points
one where he gets up twenty bays points on the week.
The next week, it's like, yeah, the volatility is the story, right,
that everybody reacts to. But the net effect is the
treasury auctions have been good. Everywhere where the bond markets
sold off, the treasury auctions were stellar with foreign uptake

(22:09):
and everywhere where you saw them manipulate the perception of
the bond curve, of the yield curve, meaning sell off
the long end of the curve, buy the short end
of the curve, the belly in six months and three years,
and create an inversion. What happened. The two and three
year bond auctions were shit, well, not very much foreign buying.

(22:30):
Why I wouldn't buy at those prices, No one's buying.
Or two year not to three point nine percent, but
move it to four point one five and you'll see
a stellar two year auction.

Speaker 2 (22:40):
Right, Okay, So this is really this is what I
wanted to talk to you about because I thought we
would have our argument or debate here, but we're not
because no, But what I'm saying is again from a
different discipline. Yeah, I'm going to agree with you without
saying you're right, meaning don't think you're wrong. At all.

(23:01):
I really don't think you're wrong. But look, I want
to walk through what happened starting April fourth for me
ahead because because there are three words that are going
to come out that would not have come out had
I not talked to you about this at different times.
And those three words are European financial propaganda. Okay. So

(23:24):
I read a lot of I read a lot of
reports and and and I rarely look at them regionally.
Now if I do look at them regionally, I'll say, okay,
bullion banks Europe versus US. You know, Europe is more
bullish than the US is, or vice versa. But I
don't look at the bullion bank. I don't look at
the bank analysis geopolitically. I don't because I look at

(23:46):
it like a financial nerd, right. Okay, So that's my
neo Kinesian, his upbringing. Right. So so I'm I'm thinking
about the tariffs, right, And on April fourth, I have
an inspired moment and I write, I write, I write.
In the morning, I say, look, this is on my radar.

(24:09):
It's really not going to happen. There's no fucking way
it can happen. But if stocks, the dollar and the
treasuries drop, meaning people don't throw their money out of
out of stocks at the treasuries. Then that's a sign
that things are going bad. And that's a sign that
foreigners are pulling their money out for whatever reason. And
if they were to do that, then POW can't cut.

(24:30):
Then I called it the worst case scenario, and and
I said, remember that, well about the worst case scenario, right,
and then and then and this is where it starts. Okay,
this is where it starts. So April fourth, April fourth,
their market did what it did. And then a couple
days later, I'm like, it's starting to happen. So I'm
already thinking that way, and then I start seeing some

(24:53):
analysis from from like three banks Deutsche Bank okay, sock
Gen okay, right, and uh Credit Agriical okay. So three banks, right,
three European banks and no American banks. Now the American

(25:16):
banks are saying, hey, we're keeping an eye on this,
kind of like what I was saying, right, But the
European banks are saying, it's happening. The thing that I
was describing, you know, it's happening. And then and then,
but now mind you, I'm reading I'm fucking sucking it up.
I'm reading and taking it all in and I'm going, yes,
that's the because I understand one and one equals two,
two and two equals four. And I'm like, yeah, this

(25:38):
is happening. I look at a couple of curves and
I go, yeah, that's happening. It didn't dawn on me
that they could be doing it a little bit, nudging
it along themselves, which is coming from you. And then
and then I went, I went, oh shit this And
then I saw the dat. I'm like, gold is going up.
I'm like, well, it's not the Europeans buying gold, it's
the it's the Chinese buying gold. You know. That's That's
what I'm thinking at the time, right. And I just

(25:59):
looked back and well, where are the American banks on this?
And at first I said, to show you how your
own bias going to mind you. At first, I said, well,
the American banks aren't saying it. That's because they're long
stocks and they're scared. Like this is me being a doomer.
Gold's going up. I'm happy everything, you know. I'm like,
you know that type of shit's like, you know, our
moment in the sun. And I'm like, oh, the American
banks are scared. They have nothing to push back on, right, Okay.

(26:22):
So then time goes on and things stabilize, and well,
then I start hearing you say that it's Europe. That's
that's I initially said, China's selling bonds. And I know that.
I know that they are. I've seen the data, Okay,
but I didn't think Europe would sell bonds at all.

(26:42):
But they have to be selling bonds because after hearing you,
I looked at the currencies and I went just to
be a little bit, like, the dollar's weaker, what's stronger? Okay,
the euro's up against the dollar? Fine, I get that, right, Okay,
that's what I don't right. But then the Swiss Frank
goes up against your I'm like, oh shit, it's all
rotating out of dollars. This was Frank's and out of
dollars up to the end. And I went, okay, that's

(27:03):
why are stocks are and that's why our bonds are down.
Oh shit, you might be selling too, And I went, oh,
maybe they are scared. And then I'm like, now I
hear you, and I go I go, oh, yeah shit,
they want this to happen. It weakens Trump's position faster.
It's like the opposite of Yellen. Remember when Yellen was
was getting them to buy bonds. Well, it's like they're

(27:24):
it's the opposite. It's opposite day now. So anyway I went,
I went, and so now I'm like, Okay, now I
get it. Everything that I had read and everything I written,
I stand by. We do have the risk. You know.
Maybe it's like almost like Europe's trying to create a
little bit of a push the bank run concept like
the Atlantic, but with bonds, you know, with their stories.

(27:44):
And I went, okay, is China working with Europe? I
don't know. Maybe you know they're practical with doubt Faul dautful. Uh,
but you know, I go back and I go, I
brought it back to American What did the American banks saying?
And they still say nothing, still saying nothing. So like that,
and then yesterday there's a postal on zero hedge. I
haven't read it all yet, but I read the headline.
I'm like, yep, that's it. The post on zero hedge

(28:05):
comes out of Goldman Sachs, and the Goldman Sacks atalyst
basically says, fuck your American exceptionalism. Going down to toilet
like you know, you're wrong, You're wrong, We're fine, and
a very patriotic headline, which of course you know is.
But the analysis was this the balance of payments fear,
which is what I'm afraid of. Right, balance of payments

(28:26):
for those are not familiar, balance of payments is the
terminology that you hear when everyone's exiting your country completely,
like out of stocks into bonds, out of bonds, and
the dollars out of dollars into something else like euros
or yen or gold. Right, So the balance of payments
is what comes up. And then Goldman's like pushing back
the balance of payments is fine. You're focusing on a

(28:47):
little bit of volatility, and I go, oh no, it
is divided along international lines. American banks are supporting, and
mind you, American banks aren't right of center. They're just
basically about money. And at this point, even if they
don't like Trump, they certainly like America more than they
like Europe. And that's what's happening now. I believe I

(29:08):
see without abandoning my analysis, I see it your way
as man. The European is really fucking sneaky.

Speaker 1 (29:16):
Yes, no, And you're you're you're absolutely correct, and there
it is. I think it's a Goldman rex Cell American
narrative sees very little evidence of the US versus rest
of the world rotation in stocks. That's the article. Okay, good,
I wanted. I wanted to get that article because now
I'm gonna put it in the show notes.

Speaker 2 (29:32):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (29:33):
Then, so while you were finishing up that point, I
was looking through zero Hedge to try and find out articles.
Right now, there's there's there's a.

Speaker 2 (29:40):
Thank you that's really gonna be I think I haven't
ready yet, but I'm gonna read it. I'm like, oh yeah,
now I'm seeing Look. Goldman CEO Solomon says, we'd like
to hear something out of the president. President says, I'll
say something, and I'll send my boy out there. He
says something, right, and then two days later Goldman's like,
fuck you, the US is fine, you know, And I'm like,
there you go. It's like it's a propaganda war now

(30:02):
now backing off the propaganda a little bit, right.

Speaker 1 (30:05):
Sure.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
One of the things that Hartnett had said American Bank
Bank of America over the last three months has been
has been he doesn't say sell American stocks because he's
got a lot of equity guys. He'll say big buy
bonds by international stocks, which implies sell your American stocks
out and buy gold. So basically it's an arbitrage short

(30:27):
American by international. They're both going to go down. American
will go down faster, sure, but he's not. He didn't
say it in a a in a short America. He
didn't say it that way. He just basically said this
is going to happen, and then pala is going to
cut and then we'll be fine. So I think what
you're going to see now is you're going to see
American banks pushed back against the European banks and it's

(30:49):
absolutely fast.

Speaker 1 (30:50):
Now interesting, so interesting that you said all that because
during your talk, which was excellent and I really appreciate it,
which was that you brought up a thing that I
had missed, which is the Swiss frank and I and
it's because the Swiss frank is the thing that always
kind of gets lost, like I charged all these other
currencies and I forget to look at the Swiss frank.
But by the way, the other the other two currencies

(31:13):
that moved up along with the euro were the Canadian
dollar and the British pound.

Speaker 2 (31:18):
I'd even pay attention to them.

Speaker 1 (31:20):
I'm paying that I did, and yeah, that makes sense.
It makes perfect sense to all cross that that sphere.
But the Swiss Frank. So yeah, so the Swiss Frank
was being used as a means by which to launder
a lot some of the some of the the size
of the trade. Because when I laid out for my
subscribers and in both the newsletter Now and the market Report,

(31:40):
was to try and lay out for them be in
very simple terms with the graphic of you know, the
trade that happened, right, and it doesn't matter. It wasn't
a basis trade necessarily. It was a sofa trade that
was that was blowing up because I was talking to
a patron. I mentioned this in the Caitlin Long Interview
and who's a you know, financial professional like you guys,

(32:01):
and he's like, and dude, I only see He's like,
I traded this ship for fifteen years and I only
barely understand what's going on, but I could see it happening,
so I think at the end. Yeah, So if you
dig into the inter day sofa trading day from those days,
you'll see unbelievable levels of volatility, Like they went after

(32:25):
Sofa to break it and they failed. They were into
There were one hour and two hour bars events. I mean,
you as a trader understand this. There were one and
two hour bars where Sofa in the middle of the
US trading day moved thirty basis points on unprecedented volume.
So someone was attacking and it was up and down,

(32:45):
it was all over the place, and then invariably at
the end of the bars, they were all like ending flat.
You know, by the time it was all over, And
I charged the Sofa Futures curve. Every time I sit
down to do a podcast for one of my clients,
either for Newsmax for my patrons, So three days a week,
I three or four days a week, I go through
and I get the yield curve, and I look at
the Sofa Futures curve and I update it with update
the model to see where it is. And every day

(33:08):
I was like on Tuesday, I'm recording for Newsmax, and
and the thing moved twenty basis points over where it
closed on Sunday. And then on Wednesday morning, I wake
up and it's back to where it was on Sunday.
That's what the kind of unprecedented volatility that was going on.
And since I don't keep that data, I don't like,
I don't charge that. I mean, there's no way I'm
going to go back and show this, but you can

(33:28):
see it if you just go to the CMU's website
and I'll make sure I drop a link to the
quote page that you guys can go and dig in
and look at the and look at the volatility. Because
SOFA should not move more than three to five basis
we move five basis points to day. That's supposed to
be a lot. The fact that it was moving in
certain aspects of certain areas of the curve between six
months and three years out as much as twenty and

(33:50):
thirty basis points is insane. So that's where the attack was.
And that was probably the inciting incident, and then the
rest of the trade worked itself out. And how did
you get that inciting incident by probably the Bank of Canada,
the Bank of England and the ECB dumping bonds and
coordinated effort. And I'll be honest with you, I expect
that China was probably in there, you know, praying on

(34:12):
the volatility. Because look, it doesn't hurt them in trade
negotiations with Trump to be a fellow traveler during times
like this with the Europeans, I don't think they're coordinating.
I think that I don't think they're coordinating at all.

Speaker 2 (34:26):
But you know, China, people were selling. They were selling
because on days April seventh, eighth, ninth, I actually see
the bar, We're selling. Treasuries were by gold. We're selling.
I'm like, but it was probably their normal behavior, but
bigger because hey, why not, Well it's also under rabbit.

Speaker 1 (34:43):
Well, and the thing is is that China's you have
to look at it strategically backing out now again backing out.
My argument would be from China's perspective, they don't know
who's going to win this. Trump is literally taking on
the people who have run the world's financial system for
three hundred years, and he's and they just made a
major move against him, and it would make sense for

(35:04):
China to, you know, not pick winners here. They have
to protect themselves. So selling a little bit of debt
and buying some gold with it is a perfectly rational
perspective for them, because they don't know who they're going
to have to fight tomorrow because Trump might go down here,
but he didn't. Because Sofur is so much more robust

(35:25):
today in twenty twenty five than it was when it
blew up in twenty nineteen.

Speaker 2 (35:30):
So did you look at the volatility and identify it
as being primarily during euro hours?

Speaker 1 (35:36):
It had not all of it. When you look at it,
you'll see you said, yeah, yeah, yeah, you saw it.
You saw it on like the Sydney Open or the
Singapore Opened, you saw it on London Open, you saw
it on the European clothes. You saw it at different
times in different places.

Speaker 2 (35:55):
But yes, here's why I asked, when when when London
wants to spoof gold? Old when Basil not Basil? When?

Speaker 1 (36:03):
When?

Speaker 2 (36:04):
Uh?

Speaker 1 (36:04):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (36:04):
When? When when Brussels wants this won't Basle. Really, when
Brussels wants to spoof gold or when the IMF wants
to spoof gold, they bang the open in Asia. Okay,
I'm not talking about that, we don't care about that
all there. I'm talking about your time frames. That's why
I asked they bang the open in Asia because it's
thin and everybody's waiting for someone to show their hands.

(36:26):
Then they have control during Europe and then they can
do whatever they want and then they bang the clothes
before they go home. And that's basically it. And then
you'll see the US kind of like you see an
algo kicking it on the US, and I'll start to
buy gold back up. The point is when you when
Europe is doing something, they'll do it at the beginning
of Asia, at the beginning of London, and at the

(36:46):
end of London. And that's that's basically it. So it's
that's that's how you would do it if you wanted
to fuck with Sofa, that's how you do it.

Speaker 1 (36:53):
Yeah, you're absolutely thank you for that. And that's and
and that's what I saw, and it's it's not that way,
because it was. It was. They were definitely like playing
games at other times, but the big moments were at
those times and and they it undergirts the point that

(37:15):
that gold is not being suppressed by the Federal Reserve anymore,
just like you and I talked about two and a
half years ago. Gold is being suppressed by and being
attacked by every by Europe. And then when the New
York Open starts, that's when the bid comes back in
and then they're fighting the bid. The entire time.

Speaker 2 (37:35):
I don't know why Europe would be fighting gold. It's
not Europe itself. I actually think it's the bullion banks
that are short. There are still bully banks that are
still short. I mean because Europe hasn't as much europe
as a ship ton of gold that they can. Maybe
it's all rehypothecated. I don't know, but that there's that.

Speaker 1 (37:53):
The other thing is a lot of it is still
at the is in the vault of the Marine Worlds building.
Don't forget that we own that. We the possession is
nine tenths of the law right and it's vulnerable. And
Trump has threatened the gold reserves. He's threatened their treasury reserves.

Speaker 2 (38:13):
Did he say that the whole the whole marri A.

Speaker 1 (38:15):
Lago accord thing that Jim Bianco was talking about, that
Stephn Miran.

Speaker 2 (38:21):
I actually read the whole paper. But but good because
I didn't.

Speaker 1 (38:24):
But I've but I've heard the distillations of it. I've gotten,
you know, the I've gotten the Jim Bianco and Ai
distillation of it. But they threatened to replace as reparations
for eighty five or eighty plus years of you know,
providing europe security with you know, one hundred years zero
percent coupon bonds. They've thrown it. Now do I think

(38:49):
that that's his? Is the thing interesting about thinking about
bout that? And I actually wanted.

Speaker 2 (38:54):
They wanted to be paid for They wanted to they
were the mar alogue greve. They wanted to back end
payment for security.

Speaker 1 (39:01):
Yes, right, And that's one argument. That's one that's what
was put out there. Now I don't know if that's
real or not, because what dude, if the United States
says that it's a default and it's the one thing
that had the United States has over eurob and everybody else,
which is that we've never defaulted on our bonds. Martin
Armstrong makes this point all the time. This is why
people run into the U. S. Treasury. And that's why

(39:21):
Brent Johnson and I both said the other day on
the podcast, like, look, we control the flow of dollars
like we don't ever we don't ever have to default.
We can always paint make our coombo bids. Why because
we have to fed the ECB does not have a
dollar generation system now that libor is over completely and
officially because synthetic library.

Speaker 2 (39:40):
Like that, Look, I just could I am a patriot,
and I'm I just think gold goes up in dollar terms,
which means I think the US will go down even more.
So I'm not anti dollar. I'm a goal No, No,
I'm not.

Speaker 1 (39:54):
None of that was None of that was was was
was directed to you at all. But actually what I'm
getting at here is or.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
As a piece of shit, it has no fiscal time.
How can it be? I can't believe it still exists,
Like I was short it in like ninety nine, going,
this has no bud, Like, how the fuck does it
still exist? I don't know how it happened.

Speaker 1 (40:11):
Because because the United because of the United States Treasury
Department and Federal Reserve and the whyboard system was actually
working to keep it liquified. Right, I mean, when you
look at the ECB's balance sheet, it something like eighty
five percent of it is vulnerable to a rate shock.
Why do you think Leguard continues to do yield curve control? Right?

Speaker 2 (40:33):
Right?

Speaker 1 (40:33):
And why do you think she's cutting raids? Because she's
forcing German pension funds and Italian pension funds and French
pension funds to buy this crappy debt at these low yields.

Speaker 2 (40:46):
It's funny because it's a different way of doing the
same thing she did during the Greek crisis, or guarantee
the buds that it'd say, we'll take your you get
one hundred percent cash for your for your or whatever
they were Greek buds. So she's doing the same thing now. Yeah, yeah,
that's interesting.

Speaker 1 (41:02):
And and so this is so the Now the big
question is why I posed this question to Brent, and
I posed this question to Caitlin. You know, when I
looked at what happened here, I said, Okay, if this
is analogous to the sober crisis of twenty nineteen, if
this is analogous to the libor right, the lib or

(41:22):
um reisure in two thousand and seven, September two thousand
and seven led the March two thousand and eight, which
led to September two thousand and eight. Right in twenty nineteen,
when Sofa was a thin market, they bombed it, right,
and they forced the FED to come in open the
reopened the standing rebout facility and liquefy the banks, and
then six months later we got market. And then we

(41:43):
got the bidless market, COVID and everything else, and the oil,
you know, everything right, and they engineered the mother of
all financial crisis, the force Powell back to the zero
bound because the treasury market went bidless. Right now, the
question is what we experien this last week, is that
another September?

Speaker 2 (42:05):
Exactly?

Speaker 1 (42:06):
What's the meaning is that? Is that? Is that the
inciting incident? That means that six months from now we're
going to get the real crisis.

Speaker 2 (42:13):
The uh what's the word?

Speaker 1 (42:14):
The uh?

Speaker 2 (42:16):
You know what? You have the tremor before the actual earthquake.

Speaker 1 (42:18):
Yeah, yeah, it's a it Yeah exactly. This in effect,
what I'm saying is you have the tremor. Everybody understands
the before the earthquake starts, and the FED comes in.
And but here's the thing. The FED didn't have to
come in this time.

Speaker 2 (42:32):
Yeah yeah, yeah, that was that didn't.

Speaker 1 (42:34):
Come in like in two thousand and seven. They had to,
you know, they had to, they had to show up
the markets. Bernacchi like panicked. In two twenty nineteen, Powell
comes in and opens the standing repo facility. We get
the six month halo effect, and then they have to
give us COVID in order to finally get him off
of this his his cloud. And then because I got

(42:56):
the Stone song ringing through my head because I heard
it in passing the other day. Hey, you get off
of my cloud. And then and then the and now
today we're staring at an unprecedented move and sofa and
I'm an unpressing palatin. Just like during Silicon Valley Bank
and the worst banking crisis since the Financial Crisis, he

(43:18):
raised interest rates in the middle of it. He flexed
during the worst banking crisis in the United States in
fifteen years.

Speaker 2 (43:27):
Yeah, they he you know, I could shoot on him
with the best of them, but but I something that
he's had to do, and he's done very well. I
think over the last three years, starting with the fuck
up what inflation? And that is he he he has
learned that he needs to manage expectations and markets need

(43:49):
to have trading wheels take it off. So in a
kind of he's not Voker, but Volker was like, I'm
not going to tell you what I'm going to do.
I'm just gonna do it, you know. And so he's
he's gone from he's gone from having three hour long conferences.
You remember when he started doing this about well this
that you know, the handholding that you get at the uh.

(44:09):
At the the the virtue signaling FED chairman has become
the no that's his answer.

Speaker 1 (44:18):
Close the fucking door. Yeah right right, that's going to
be Powell's legacy. I'm just closed the door.

Speaker 2 (44:25):
Right right, exact, Yeah, I just close the door. And
and by the way, that's one of the things like
there's a there's a I think I believe it on
Sultan poster actors said this, but it was probably said
to him by someone. The market needs to have a
little volatility. The market needs the speculators need to start
losing money on this volatility. Stop the put, stop buying

(44:48):
the depth and there's a put. There's a put right now.
The put is underneath the bond market. Of course, you're
still gonna have to go to yield care control.

Speaker 1 (44:56):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (44:56):
And until he's safe, then he's not at ease rates.
So you know what, maybe he is hold it off
because six months from now there's going to be an
earthquake possibly.

Speaker 1 (45:05):
And that it is going to be in Europe because
it all songs, which is why they're talking about seizing savings.
It's why they're talking about a digital Euro's why they're
talking about, you know, massive stimulus in order to try
to rearm Europe. That's what that's all about, and to
transfer and the and to show up their weakness, their
strategic weakness, as you pointed out, is that they have

(45:28):
no fiscal you know, tie the euros and a statistical time.

Speaker 2 (45:31):
Like this eurobond to be they needed.

Speaker 1 (45:33):
They need a eurobond market they need and they have
to get the Germans to go first, because the Germans
are the only ones that that can make that work.
No one wants eurobonds and they can't get tax and
spend authority added to the European Commission because too many
people are saying no. Now it's not just Victor Orbond
in Hungary, it's now Portugal, it's now Spain, it's now

(45:55):
Italy are saying no. And so now they have to
go country by country to trying to get this stuff done.
And now they're scrambling for the short of collateral by
you know, really firming up ties between city of London
and Brussels at a political level, which is like here,
Starmer's in place, but he's not gonna last six months
because Trump is wise to his game, right, if Starmer

(46:17):
goes down in in in the UK, and the way
you do that, by the way, is you blow out
the UK US tenure spread, you blow out the guilt market.

Speaker 2 (46:33):
Now that's our counter attack, that's our that's our counter
attack to all this.

Speaker 1 (46:37):
I think.

Speaker 2 (46:37):
So, no, I'm thinking about you, how would you do that? Well,
lower some rates we've got, like still got a little
bit of QT left. He turned the QT off and
uh yeah, I don't know. It's like he's you know,
I mean, look, he guy's really vulnerable. Man, They're really vulnerable.

Speaker 1 (46:55):
They're very vulnerable. And they're being I said this when
when the against the liz has happened in twenty twenty two,
I said, they're being liquidated, they're being this is a coup.
It's been it's a coup by the by the Europeans, right,
and they're now going to liquidate the UK and they're
going to liquidate all opposition in order to get access

(47:18):
to I didn't say it then, but I'm saying it now.
It's because it's now as obvious to get they're going
to control the development of the of the north slope
of the North Store, the North slope off of Scotland.
So we have Alaska right right right, and they have
the North slope off of Scotland, and there's a tremendous
amount of oil up there in the North Seas. Still
they just yaf.

Speaker 2 (47:39):
That's how great I left. Economically, they need to have
that shit, they need that to work.

Speaker 1 (47:44):
But you know Trump is gonna be like, no, no, no,
You've got that. So so now let's really talk about
what's going on geopolitically. So why did it after all
of this? Right takes a punch in the mouth. His
approval rating is down to is now low. It's fine,

(48:04):
he's taking his massive punch in the mouth. We've had
all this volatility, tariffs, blah blah blah blah blah. Okay,
and now he's shifted back to Ukraine. Right, and what
is he? And what have you noticed? I noticed it.
I don't know if you noticed it because you don't.
Maybe you don't read. You don't read that, you don't
don't think you read the same thing as I do.
But which is I've been reading our teeth. I've been

(48:26):
reading our teeth for twenty years, okay, And yeah, of course,
and I've been reading our teeth for twenty years. And
what I'll tell you is this, on the best of days,
they're neutral towards Donald Trump previously most of the time,
they're skeptical, right, and they need to be editorially they
should be. In the last month or two, they've been

(48:47):
nothing but supportive of everything he's trying to get done.
Why they're the ones that effectively leaked the parameters of
the fucking piece deal that he put on the table.
The Zelenski and what are the two most important Poe
points in that deal? It's not Russia is gonna get
Crimea and the four oh bloss in this and no NATO.
That's none of that matters.

Speaker 2 (49:08):
What are the thing?

Speaker 1 (49:09):
All the fucking sanctions on Russia between the United States? Yea,
and coordinating on energy policy? What the fuck do you
think that is? The United States is work, We're gonna
join OPEC.

Speaker 2 (49:19):
Plus, I'm just fucking lily like. That's by the way,
that dovetails into into what I'm looking at part of
part of his plan, you know, the cheap oil part. Well,
if you get oil prices down enough and uh you
want Russia wants the pumpboard, so you you alleviate sanctions,

(49:40):
you give them their money back. It's not going to
make everything better, but it right away divides Russia. Uh,
it pulls Russia a little bit back away from their
other their antipathy that they have towards US. I agree,
I agree. Like it's totally about that. Like look, you
cause it tariffs, Like these are the three steps that

(50:03):
I see that are still in line with with Scott
Bessett's plan right or tactical plan for Trump. Tariffs make
people pay to use to get access to US. You're charging. Okay,
So as the debate's going on, oil goes down. As
the price of oil goes down, Russia and Saudi Arabia

(50:24):
are miserable. Okay, China is miserable because of the tariffs,
but Russia and Saudi Arabia become miserble because the price
is down and Sadi Arabia is pumping but Russia's really
not be Then you go to Russia and you say,
you know what, how'd you like to pump more? You know,
and we'll give your money back just fucking you know,
take take, you know, let's come up with a reasonable

(50:45):
deal for splitting Ukraine up, like an East and West
Ukrain or whatever the fuck's going to be called. And
that's all that matters is as far as I'm concerned,
and that allows us to hopefully get to a more
stable Europe again. But you know who does well?

Speaker 1 (51:00):
Is is that what that does? I mean, you're you're right,
and what But what that really does is it tells
you that the bid to destroy, to recolonize the United States,
and to destroy Russia is over. The United States and Russia.
The leadership of both countries understand that the only way
they survive is if they cooperate versus are set the strokes,

(51:22):
which is why Davis's next move obviously is to try
and pin a false flag on Putin. Now Trump comes out,
you know, then, and what does Putin doing in the
middle of this strategic surgical strikes on Kiev?

Speaker 2 (51:36):
Right? Although before you this is where I'm going to
push back with Trump, Okay, because I don't know, admittedly
I don't know. Can't everything that we just said, can't
it just also be looked at this way. Trump is
poorly negotiating with with with Putin, and Putin's going to
take advantage of it until he comes to the table,
meaning the heads to bobbing and all that shit. You know.

Speaker 1 (51:58):
Well, yeah, well, I mean, what Putin has to do
is he has to remind everybody in Europe that if
you put Dutch troops in harm's way, we're still going
to attack them. Like they've made it bolantly clear that
everybody who's in Ukraine is an enemy combatant, right and
he has a guarantee, he must have a guarantee from

(52:18):
Trump that no Article five if you blow up British
sas or you know, the French have been dumping foreign
legion in there, right, I mean, that's what who's been
getting killed? The same thing with US mercenaries. None of
all this all plausible deniability for those guys. But at
the moment when they officially announced that they're moving troops
into Ukraine and they're making the Dutch go first. By

(52:41):
the way, meanwhile, the Germans have moved troops so the
first time since World War Two outside of their borders
into Estonia, right on the Russian right on the biolcy
and border. Are you fucking kidding me? This is the
most this is the most provocative thing the Germans have
done since nineteen thirty nine.

Speaker 2 (52:58):
You say that they want the Russians go off sides.

Speaker 1 (53:01):
They're trying to get the Russians to go offside here
they're trying to get the Russians and you know, worried
that something is going that something's going to happen.

Speaker 2 (53:08):
Let's make them elate.

Speaker 1 (53:10):
Yeah, and then and then we go from there and
and then force Trump to defend Europe. And they keep
talking about this. They keep saying, we're going to put
you in a position where you're going to have to
follow follow us in Ukraine. And Trump is like, no,
which is part of the reason why he's trying to
get this deal done now. So now the big question
is and this is this popped into my head earlier

(53:31):
in the week. You know, Martin Armstrong is written about
it a little bit, But I had I've been getting
this feeling that Zelensky's far past his use by day
and he's in a user, and everybody's in a user.
To lose the scenario with Zelenski, Putin uses Zelenski as
an excuse to continue to take territory and to continue
to degrade Ukraine's ability to fight back. Because if there's

(53:53):
going to be a wider cont if Trump and he
and Trump can't get these people to finally just submit it,
which you shouldn't expect them to submit, then Putin in
the summer has shaped the battlefield in Ukraine that if
he drops a quarter of a million troops on you know,

(54:13):
a three areas along the borders, Ukraine collapses and he
takes massive amounts of territory. Trump even said this the
other day, said this recently while he was excoriating Vadimir
for not for for bombing Kiev.

Speaker 2 (54:27):
That was I'm sorry, I didn't like that. That was gay.
But anyway, it was gay.

Speaker 1 (54:31):
It was absolutely gay. But it was. But it's also fake.

Speaker 2 (54:34):
So it's fake and gay. Yeah, I get it.

Speaker 1 (54:37):
But what was really really I have.

Speaker 2 (54:41):
Students that listen, I don't mean that almost that. I
mean that in a in a weak, effeminate, uh appropriate
way anyway.

Speaker 1 (54:48):
G h e y gay? Okay? That that gay? Or
g h e I gay. It's even worse. It's it's
because now it's like you know, it's now now it's
like China fight like it's completely ridiculous. Right. No, And
the bit the important tweet was, look it was. It
was Trump basically saying the concession here is that you

(55:10):
only lose Crimea in these four ro boss because because
Russia can take the whole fucking country if they wanted
to and try it right public like, and that's not
a that's that is that's the that's the ripping the
band aid off moment. Man.

Speaker 2 (55:25):
That's like what he said before, remember remember a long
time ago, He's like, you know, Putin's killed people, and
he's like, well we have two. You know, that's the
you know what, you need to fucking face the truth here,
you know, you need to.

Speaker 1 (55:37):
Face the reality. And the reality is is that And
Trump has the ultimate I hate to use the pun
Trump card, which says, we turn off the satellites, the
wars over in forty eight hours, and we can walk
away from this deal, and we can walk away from
any support for you. And he's shaping the back, he's
shaping the rhetorical battlefield to walk away completely from all

(55:59):
of this, leave this mess to the UK and NATO,
and he turns off NATO access to the US satellite
and targeting systems, and Ukraine is now done, like they're done,
and the Russians can then just roll over the entire country.
But to do that, he well he did it for

(56:22):
forty eight hours. And yeah he did it once when
he threw right after he threw Zelenski out of the
White House back in March, so he's already made that
threat real and he thought it would be enough to
get them to stop, but Europe won't stop. So then
that was early March. Then we get the Liberation Day,

(56:43):
which is two days after the end of Synthetic Libor.
They attacked the sofa market, which makes perfect sense because
they're trying to be legitimate sofa and they're trying to
regain trying to you know, get confidence that they can
replace solar with something else and force us into submission
where we have to go back to the zero bound
and turn the FED into just another euro dollar bank.
And that failed. That failed, So all these things that failed,

(57:08):
and then the negotiations over Ukraine are simply like you guys,
like you're the ones who are holding on to most
of Russ's money. The Zelensky and Vonderland and all of
them have deep like they have deep financial ties. These
people are so fucking corrupt.

Speaker 2 (57:28):
Right, and they wanted to spend Russia's money before we did,
absolutely right, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (57:32):
Well, they what they always wanted us to do was
to go first right and desroy and destroy and then say, oh,
we're not going to do that would be too disabilised,
and they and you know, even even Biden didn't fall
for that ship because somebody like walked up to Janny
Yllen and said, if you do that, you will She
was but she was absolutely pro all that stuff. But

(57:55):
on at a certain level, somebody within the Biden administration,
somebody and side the American government turned to the to
the trainees and the and the millennials running the show
at that point and said, if you do that, you
will all you will all wake up with tomorrow with
some ecolashes at the bottom of the East River. You

(58:16):
will be done. You're not doing that, And I I said, look,
it's forty billion dollars. The United States is going to
trash its standing as the safe haven for global capital
over fucking forty billion dollars and Ukraine, are you.

Speaker 2 (58:32):
Fucking and then convince.

Speaker 1 (58:34):
The last thing. The last thing is he came out
this morning and he said, he told Netanyah, He's like,
I'm not going to go to war with Iran for you, right,
You're not going to get me. You're not going to
backdoor me into a war with Iran.

Speaker 2 (58:49):
Right. That's funny because the US has been trying to receive,
not received, but you know, pull back on its international
police force. And that's kind of what he's doing.

Speaker 1 (58:59):
That kind of what we're doing moving troops out of Syria.
The Israelis were the Israelis to take out Pete hegg
Sath over this, right, like multiple times. The whole thing
about everything about Pete, about what's been going on with
Heggsath is to get get rid of him as sect
death because they want control of the Pentagon and they've
they you know, and Trump has said nothing about wiscon

(59:21):
Ham with he Seth. He hasn't said good, he hasn't
reaffirmed heg Sath, and he hasn't said any He hasn't
you know, he hasn't commented on signal Gate or this. Right,
he knows exactly what's going on. He knows that's silence
here is golden on all of that because they he
knows that they're they're that domestically, the plan is to
sew division through the domestic press that the administration is

(59:45):
the shambles. So their whole argument now is is chaos.
That's their talk.

Speaker 2 (59:50):
We'll talk about what it shuits him, not when it
suits them, right.

Speaker 1 (59:54):
So that's so I mean, like, when you really like
put it all together, man, it's like it's so very
very clear that this is this is world War three,
this is what world War three it looks like.

Speaker 2 (01:00:04):
And yeah, absolutely, it's absolute let's go so all right.

Speaker 1 (01:00:10):
So with that said, I think maybe we should talk
about what we see through the next three to four
months because you know, as my as dexter I put
it in this one's newsletter, don't worry about the messaging.
The tariff is the message. The messaging around the tariffs
is not the messaging the message. The tariffs themselves are

(01:00:31):
the message. Right, And now the question is who can
afford to continue to keep the volatility up, because as
to your point earlier, which you made what you made,
and again you said so much, so much good stuff,
that the the the volatility, you have to get rid of,

(01:00:53):
the froth off the markets. You've got to get rid
of the short specs, the short term specs, you got.

Speaker 2 (01:00:58):
Right, Let let them, let them exhaust themselves, that's kind
of it. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Like volatility is to make
people react that it's not right at least anyway.

Speaker 1 (01:01:09):
But if you wipe those guys out, then you control
the market. It's been my argument about oil that why
they increased the massive volatility and oil during the Biden
hunter was to get rid of all the small stacks
so that they can they can control the direction of
the brin crude contract.

Speaker 2 (01:01:24):
That you're saying, the price of oil growing up other
Biden was a bonus for the UK.

Speaker 1 (01:01:31):
What I'm saying is what I'm saying is during the
Biden hunter, as they were pushed, as Biden was selling
the spr and all this stuff, and oil kept trying
to rally and then they would vomit and take it down.
I watched oil's volatility as a function of price and
in absolute terms and as a function of price triple.
On a weekly basis, oil moves four and a half

(01:01:51):
dollars a barrel. At one point it was six dollars
a barrel on a weekly Like the range on oil,
just the range load to high. This is the most
important market in the world. It's like so for moving
thirty basis points in the day. And this ship's been
going on for years now. It's down to about four
to seventy five, which is still six and a half percent,

(01:02:12):
you know, of of of the of the price.

Speaker 2 (01:02:15):
Because the price is lower, but still it's less.

Speaker 1 (01:02:17):
The percentage of the same. But we're watching the volatility.
Absolute volatility has dropped somewhat, but it's still immense relative
to the current price. And that's just destroying. That's ball
washing all the small specs out of the market so
that they can have more control because the fewer players
means that, you know, the large players then control the market.
And what we and what do we say because we

(01:02:38):
talked about this, so what do we say in previous
iterations of the podcast. Well, all that's going to do
is ensure that that real oil price discovery is going
to move off the Brent crude contract. So they're shooting
themselves in the foot in the long run unless they
have a backup plan as to where they're gonna you know,
they're going to move the oil price discovery.

Speaker 2 (01:02:56):
That's funny. You know, there's something else that we did.
It was under by but it wasn't by doing this
when the price of oil went up a lot. Uh,
what we did was we there's there's there's an index
right the plats inecks or the bread basket that's called right,
which is basically the pricing basket. You know, for every oil. Right,

(01:03:20):
What we did was we we we lobbied and had
them change the bread basket to increase its percentage of
w t I. And that was us pushing back against
That was the right way to push back. Everybody's looking
at bread. So we're like, you know what, We're gonna
put more wt I in the basket because it's better
for pricing, and eventually that makes local wt I more

(01:03:41):
of an international oil, which is going to stabilize the
market in the long run. I think that's right.

Speaker 1 (01:03:46):
Yeah, but at the time, what it was doing, it
helped push the price of oil lower because the breath
that was.

Speaker 2 (01:03:53):
That was it, you know, we saw w t I.
Then it makes Brent go down, right because we were
just having great yeah yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:04:01):
So so okay, so I guess you know, we've been
talking now for you and I have been talking for
quite a long time. But this podcast is now probably
getting close to the proper length, which is that Okay,
now we got about you know, fifteen twenty minutes to
talk about. I think, what do we see in terms
of how this plays out this summer, because again, you
had all these people like shoot a whole lot of bullets. Now,

(01:04:23):
you know, do they do they wait and rearm? Do
we have do we have volatility all summer? Do do
we sell and may and come back after labor Day?

Speaker 2 (01:04:32):
Like?

Speaker 1 (01:04:32):
What do you you know? I mean they what do
you think is? Is? Is the setup here for the
next well the summer?

Speaker 2 (01:04:38):
That's what I think.

Speaker 1 (01:04:39):
That's the actual part for the people and who actually
want to trade these markets even though they shouldn't.

Speaker 2 (01:04:44):
Well, I think I think, I think I think we're
staying on your on your theme. I think the first
question like I'm listening to what you're saying, and I'm going,
all right, so what's my trade? Well? Does does does
Europe have another bullet or do they use it all?
And if they do have another bullet? Is Pal ready
for it? Yes? Because he hasn't used any of his
own yet. So I think I think it comes down to, uh,

(01:05:10):
I mean, it's hard for me to have an opinion
because I'm not looking like I look at the five
year and three minute timeline and right and the two
month is four month timeline is very muddy for me
right now? You know, uh, you know, I'm I'm not
long gold, I'm flat gold, and I want to get
long buns that's all I'm doing right now.

Speaker 1 (01:05:29):
Like that's fair, you know what? I Well, look, how
about this one? I I I mostly agree with you,
and I laid that out there for you to to
to punt because if Vince doesn't have an idea of
what the fuck to do the next two to four months,
and I don't have an idea of what to do
the next four two to four months, nobody else does,
and neither should you. And if you need to, you should,

(01:05:52):
and you're worried about what's going to happen, well then
you do risk like and I've been you know, what
I've been saying recently is like, look, if you need
to sleep better at night, you need to raise you know,
ten percent cash, you know, raise your cash, you know,
by ten percent and go to the short term t
bells do so because gold had a really nice run.
But if if we got peace in Ukraine, Gold's impulse

(01:06:15):
go is over. It's probably done for most of the
rest of the year until a crisis. Are storm merging
Europe again?

Speaker 2 (01:06:20):
Oh yeah, absolutely absolutely. I mean you know, people like
people have been talking about like we'll ever go back
to the normal EU is the rush rush of their
money back and the answers, no, it won't go back
to the However, however, if anyone's longest market to go
to puke on that news, and that's what's going to happen.
So so I don't want to be well right now

(01:06:41):
on a short term basis. I just think it's overbought.
So I'm flat, which is like for me being short. Uh.
The one thing I got really wrong, and fortunately I
didn't have a big trade on I was long miners.
This is what I got right. I was long miners
and short tech for a month and it worked out
really well. And but I was also long oil because

(01:07:03):
I expected oil was my hedge for the tech stock,
and I guess it did its job. But I really
thought oil was going to start to turn h and
it hasn't, and it's really kind of annoyed me. And
then I went, I looked, I went, I looked back
at Uh, what does oil do doing a Republican president?
It goes down? What does oil do doing a Democrat president?

(01:07:26):
It goes up? And what does what It's like we build,
we drill for oil during a Republican president, and then
we spend the oil doing a Democrat president. So I
guess I should be long excell and that fucking oil.
That's the problem.

Speaker 1 (01:07:39):
I've been saying. I I as well can cop to.
I really did think that oil had finished bottoming. You
know the first time we had spike bottom in the
in the low seventies, and then we had the weekly
chart was really clear. But then we had but then
the tariffs hit and it brought it down all over again.

Speaker 2 (01:07:57):
But we want that. I'm like, we want that. I'm
happy with.

Speaker 1 (01:08:00):
Yeah, we work because you know who's you know, who's
gonna benefit from this? Japan Why? I mean I know
that they're not gas, but so well, yeah, well that's
that's the big one. Like like, look, we're still drilling
for a lot.

Speaker 2 (01:08:14):
Oil, right.

Speaker 1 (01:08:15):
The tariffs have priced American energy out of the Chinese market, right, Okay,
so who's gonna so who then immediately shows up and says,
I'm not interested in getting into trade work with the
United States. Ishiba the Japanese Prime Minister, And so Japan
doesn't have to radically strengthen the END to to offset

(01:08:38):
their their domestic inflation because of high energy prices. Energy
prices are down. The END has corrected back into the
low one forties, which so it's pretty solid. Well we're
gonna talk about that in just a second. But LNG,
they they import a ship ton of LNG like now,
they can get it from the United States at a

(01:08:59):
very at preferential oh yeah, yeah to the Chinese and
that and that that takes the pressure off the Ministry
of Finance and the Bank of Japan to radically normalize
interest rates in Japan. They can take their time moving
the long end of the Japanese yield curve up from
one point three percent of the tenure towards two percent,
but they don't have to do so in the next

(01:09:20):
two months. In order to keep missus Watana be happy.
They can take two years to get there.

Speaker 2 (01:09:26):
Right right, Well, that's that's a cheap energy benefits step right.
And and by the way, that's there's a trade for you.
I will want to be long natural gas for like
the next two years us Henry Hub natural gas because
LG is going to make it more expensive for Americans
to get natural gas because we're just going to keep
setting more and more of an AD will blow up
some more pipelines and that's you know, yeah, and.

Speaker 1 (01:09:48):
That he gas below four dollars in MCU a million
bt US here in the United States is is uh
is not sustainable for too many, for a lot of people.
So that's going to have to rise a little bit.
But that's fine if because if we deregulate here in
the US, then the interstitial costs, you know, the the
the the regime cost on top of the actual you know, extraction,

(01:10:12):
you know, the producer costs. And then there's the regime cost.
There's the cost of the government, the taxes and the
tariffs and everything else internally in the United States, what's
on you get rid of those and you and so
you can have natural gas go from three dollars to
three seventy five or four dollars and if you pull
a dollar's.

Speaker 2 (01:10:27):
Worth won't hurt the cost.

Speaker 1 (01:10:29):
But it doesn't have to it doesn't have to create
incipient domestic inflation. If you deregulate the American economy right right,
right right, and the lower corporate income taxes and everything else,
right and Trump gets rid of capital gains tax. Could
you imagine if you got rid of capital gains tax
like you threatened, like across the board.

Speaker 2 (01:10:47):
It'll be phenomenal, It'll be phenomenal, which by the way.
I just want to throw this in there. That's the
next chapter. See, that's the playbook. The playbook is the
play I'm gonna like, like you're talking about the next
six months, here's the next.

Speaker 1 (01:10:59):
Church monk, let's talk. I left that as an open
end to question for you. I don't care what you want.

Speaker 2 (01:11:05):
This is what I do feel about feel and I
can't and I don't have I don't know which way
it's gonna break yet, but so hut synthesizing best ends
approach and Trump's uh megaphone. We want low oil, we
got it. We want a weeker dollar, We're getting it. Uh.

(01:11:26):
And we want to uhh use tariffs either to raise revenue, okay,
and to raise revenue. Honestly, we're going to raise revenue
from it and to get concessions in other areas. Fine,
so that's good. The reason that it has to work,
the reason I think that he pushed early, earlier than
I thought he would, but it made sense. I didn't

(01:11:49):
push back on it. It was because he needs This
is the whole accord with pal thing. Pal I need
you to lower rate before the crisis, and Pal, I
need you a low rate. Nope, oil is too high.
I'll get oil down. Remember Trump's a horse trader. Oil
comes down because of the tariffs. Pala needs a low rates.
I can't do it until the bomb market stabilizes. And

(01:12:10):
then Trump says, all right, I'm going to get revenues
from the tariffs, and then he's going to go to
the Senators and congressman and say here comes the tax bill.
We're going to remove some sort of tax. And that's
where that's where he wins if he can pivot from
the chaos that you know that's going on right now

(01:12:32):
instigated by him. But that's a part of it to
saying all right, Russia, whatever it is, Russia tariffs. Once
there's progress made on the tariffs, he can say tax cuts,
and then he gets he stems his he stems his
the bleeding in his popularity. He makes sure that the Republicans,

(01:12:52):
the midterm people come back to him or stay with him,
and then he can go to the next plan because
otherwise otherwise we're not making anything great again.

Speaker 1 (01:13:02):
We need Yeah, I know you're you're you're correct that
that that is very that is absolutely I'll.

Speaker 2 (01:13:06):
Trying to figure out if people to do it. What
is he going to do it. Is he going to
do it? Is he waiting for news? Or It's like,
put this way, if he were to say tomorrow, I'm
going to push for tax nuts, I would say too
soon because because because he's got these loose things going on.
But if he waits too much longer, this is what
my concern is. If he waits too much longer, then
the Senator is going to start looking at him saying,

(01:13:28):
no longer a mandate, more of a lame duck. So
this is why he has for Russia and Ukraine. He
needs something.

Speaker 1 (01:13:35):
Yeah, he needs to and that's why I think Zonski
is no longer part of this conversation by.

Speaker 2 (01:13:44):
But but they want to get rid of Zalinski or
just leave him in there as as a useful idiot.

Speaker 1 (01:13:49):
No, he's backed by all the worst people. He's either
going to get taken out internally, as all the wars,
as as all the money dries up because Europe doesn't
have the money. Trump, you know, the Putin continues to
take and and enforce reality on the ground supporting Trump's position,
and Powell needs to cut in June.

Speaker 2 (01:14:14):
Wait wait, wait, wait all, So here's one question for
you to help me help me, Like, see your mindset,
you're telling me in the cases of Lenski, you do
not feel that the devil you know is better than
the devil you don't.

Speaker 1 (01:14:27):
Know, Like yeah, yeah, absolutely, yeah, he's not the devil
you know. You don't know this. This guy has the
tracksuit midget needs to go and for every for everybody.
And they're the only people propping him up. Are all
the people that are the ones that we've identified in
this podcast are are Trump are Trump's uh implacable enemies.
So they're the ones propping him up, and but they're

(01:14:49):
getting out maneuvered in every other areas a matter of
Canadians this weekend or a big deal, because that's going
to suck up some time when we try to figure
out what's going on there. Powell's not going to cut
in May, but he's gonna have to start cutting. He's
gonna have to start the second half of the year
with a twenty five basis point rate cut in June,
and maybe even a fifty. He may cut fifty just

(01:15:12):
like he did in September, not just to make Trump happy,
but to acknowledge the to even give Trump this dude, dude, yeah,
I was late, so I'm gonna cut fifty out.

Speaker 2 (01:15:23):
Cutting is an endorsement of Trump's plan.

Speaker 1 (01:15:28):
Yeah, that's what.

Speaker 2 (01:15:30):
When how says twenty five bases points or cape are good,
I'm like, shit, he sees the bond market a stable,
he's not worried about the shit going on with the
UK and so for and I'm like, oh shit, he's
going to push the tax player now this like that
would be really really good. I hope that happens.

Speaker 1 (01:15:49):
I think I think that's what's going on, and sending
Besson to the IMF to dress it down directly. If
you did, you.

Speaker 2 (01:15:57):
Watch, I watched. The whole thing was fucking awesome and
it was. It was again what was it? It was
an adult speaking to children without using the Trump style,
but he was like stop, like what do you say?
Stop treating China like babies? And that was one thing
he said that, you know, being the the i m F.
And it was. It was really really good. It was unbelievable.

(01:16:18):
I loved it.

Speaker 1 (01:16:18):
I love it. I was like, I'm not worried about this.

Speaker 2 (01:16:23):
Trump's Trump's the bad cop. He's the good cop. Trump's
like get rid of the supernationals. He's like before the supernationals.
We'll get rid of it later. You know, it's funny.

Speaker 1 (01:16:33):
Actually, a good cop back comp is fine. I kind
of like calm cops, chaos cops Trump Trump is your
agent of chaos. Are like, yeah, right, it's all fun.
Don't worry about right, that's.

Speaker 2 (01:16:50):
The thing, you know, Like I really think it goes
like this. Trump has a vision and that vision was
to make America great again. And at some point he
finally said how and someone said this is hell and
he said, oh, I understand. Like he sat down with
these people and said, oh I get it. Oh I
get it. Oh I get it. All right, I'm gonna
do it. They're like no, no, no, he goes, no, no, I'm

(01:17:12):
gonna do it my way. As long as you got
my back. You know. That's basically it. I think.

Speaker 1 (01:17:17):
Yeah, and then you bring up everything that Caitlin and
I talked about in our podcast with the sl rooving
the sl R. That's when when when you hear that,
So the FED came out to the yesterday and lifted there. Yeah,
that's a bunch of about crypto and then the next
one is going to be an SLR exemption is coming
and Crypto and tether and all this stuff. And you're like,

(01:17:41):
there ain't gonna be any worries in the bond market, folks.

Speaker 2 (01:17:43):
No, I'm saying, Who's I was going to ask you
who's our next bond buyer, India or Big Cooin? And
you're like, well, it's big Coin that.

Speaker 1 (01:17:51):
Both are both right, right?

Speaker 2 (01:17:54):
No, But that's that's true. That's true. You know, we
lifted that's a big deal. You know, I'm not a
big fan of Sailor, but I understand this is good.
They undid they undid the last thing of Gensler basically, uh,
during the you know, during the Biden administration. And now
you know that, Yeah, that's that's it's really a big

(01:18:14):
deal because now you're going to see stable coins, You're
going to see reasons to hold bonds as collateral. We
need to buy our own bonds. How do you convince
an American who will not buy bonds at four percent
to buy them? You do it by either going into war,
which we're not going to do overtly. You do it
by mandating it while we're not an authoritarian communist country,

(01:18:35):
at least not yet, or you give them a product
attached to it that encourages them to own it. Hey,
if you buy this stable coin attached to gold, attached
to season tickets, debts, but whatever the fuck are attached
it to, and you buy it with it, and you
buy them with a treasury, we'll give you four percent
and you have the upside of bitcoin. Oh, I'll buy

(01:18:56):
some bonds and that's it. And that's it. It's probably because.

Speaker 1 (01:19:00):
And so as you were talking, So as you were talking,
guess why I just checked where we are. This is
Friday morning, that's right around noon. The European clothes hasn't
happened yet. Bitcoin up eighteen hundred dollars at ninety five
eighty seven thirty and the NASDAK is flat. So Bitcoin
is now decoupling from the Nasdaq. And that's the moment
we've all been waiting for bitcoin.

Speaker 2 (01:19:23):
So my trade last year, coincidentally, was was I in
twenty three I shorted TLT and bought CLT and I
went And the reason I did it was a pure
inflation play. I was like, if there's going to be inflation,
either bonds are going to crap out or gold, and
I'll probably not both what'll get manipulated and they both happened.
So this trade, to your point about bitcoin, is long
bonds and long bitcoin. That's the trade.

Speaker 1 (01:19:44):
Now it's completely it may wind up being wouldn't that
be hilarious.

Speaker 2 (01:19:48):
It's a trade safe haven. I'll buy buds bitcoin. It's
a kicker. It's fucking great, it's good. I mean, I'm
last I spent my own bitcoin, but I bought some
like after bitcoin for no reason. All rallied like five thousand.
I went, I'll add and I added it significantly added,
going it should have gone down against tech and it didn't.

(01:20:09):
This is like in the there was like two days
where I mean, fuck it, I'll just buy something because
I was shut tech stocks right right, Tex stocks, long
motters that's working, long oil, that's not working. I went to,
you know, I'm gonna head to my tech stocks by
buying bitcoin. Why not? Right? And then rallied seven thousand
points and then the news comes out, Uh surprise, we're

(01:20:32):
in it, like we're in. It's it's risk on gold time.
It really is, it really is.

Speaker 1 (01:20:37):
Yeah, this is this is whole, This is this is
really hilarious. So I I and you know, dude, we're
going to close gold in the futures market today around
thirty three hundred, and that's not even really a pullback
in gold. I'm what I'm hoping for now with gold.
To be honest with you, is I really do want
that kind of Let's just take six week breather in gold.

(01:20:57):
Let's just like be flat gold for like six weeks,
and then we get back to three yards and a
cloud of dust up one hundred down, fifty up, one
hundred and fifty down down seventy five? What did you say?

Speaker 2 (01:21:06):
Three hours and a three.

Speaker 1 (01:21:08):
Yards and three yards and a cloud of dust the
football reference. I want bill parcels. I don't want, okay, okay, okay,
I want I want off tackle right or off tackle left,
or sweep right or sweet left. As my is my
running game, that's my running playbook. And then and that's
how I want gold, because that's how you unnerve and
you destroy the bullion backs. You really can't they they

(01:21:31):
can play the volatility for.

Speaker 2 (01:21:34):
They're gonta get comfortable getting short again. And by the way,
are the signs that that that that China and the
US are talking will be when gold goes sideways or lower,
because that's how they bought before they bought between February
of twenty four. They they did nothing between the December
of twenty three and February twenty four, and the market
went sideways to lower and they were just doing nothing

(01:21:56):
or buy patiently. And then in March twenty four they
lit a fuse and said, fuck it, we're going to
buy it. So I think they're going to do that again.
As the conversation goes, Look, there's a war on gold
right now. As is buying it way more aggressively than
they used to, and the US is now selling it
more aggressively.

Speaker 1 (01:22:12):
Than we used to.

Speaker 2 (01:22:13):
And I'm going, what the hell's going on here? And
I'm saying, well, you know what, if these guys start
talking and getting along on some level, the buying and
goal is going to stop for a little bit. And
so I would like to see it three yards in
a cloud of dust.

Speaker 1 (01:22:26):
That's a good three yards are cloud of dust, and
then move the chains and take they take twelve minutes
to kick a field goal, Take twelve minutes off the clock,
kick a field goal, send your send your rested defense
out there to you know, to then zone blitz them
into into submission, and then do it again right right field.
By this, I think that's you know, the football analogy here,
especially the best style for football analogy works.

Speaker 2 (01:22:46):
Really really well.

Speaker 1 (01:22:46):
And being an old guy, being an ex giant fan
from that that era of football where it was tactically
and strategically so brilliant, like here as a as as.

Speaker 2 (01:22:59):
The redskin like that.

Speaker 1 (01:23:01):
Yeah, I mean, look like, you know, the the you know,
the old Jim Kelly Buffalo Bills thing was fun. And
you know the and the West Coast offense was also fun.
They just used a short passing game like a running game.
Was the same thing. Five guard slants, five yard slant. Yeah,
and we'll move this. Move the chains, you know, that's
let's move the chains, control the clock, do the thing.

(01:23:22):
So what I'm seeing at this point, and I think
I think you agree with me, is that for the
most part, because and I think it's all because of Sofa,
we are in a beautiful We are in a position
now where we're controlling the clock and our our enemies
are getting desperate. So don't China enemy. I consider China,

(01:23:44):
I considered tribal. I consider China arrival, Like I don't
consider them the enemy, you know.

Speaker 2 (01:23:50):
Right, They're they're right there. They're a pragmatic They're a
pragmatic rival in the sense that if you know, I
could just see like Biden wanted to destabilize Russia and
make China come to us that way, and and Trump's like,
I'll just I'll just calm rush you down and make
try to come to us that way. I have a
question about the euro dollar while all this is going on,

(01:24:13):
What does that do to the euro dollar in your opinion?

Speaker 1 (01:24:16):
Like, oh, I think that they won't be able to
defend par anymore. Is as to Caitlin Long's point, We're
going to defend We're going to continue to defend par.
And there's gonna be an arbitrage play between the off
shore dollar and the onshore dollar as it pertains to
US dollar stable coins they're gonna have.

Speaker 2 (01:24:29):
They not gonna support the offshore dollar, right right, not
at all? Right, That's what I'm looking at them, Like,
the euro dollar's got to go down. If we're going
to hurt Europe, how do we do that? We do
that by not supporting one and supporting the other. And
that's that's right, That's what I was thinking, was like.

Speaker 1 (01:24:47):
And that's exact, and and Vince. This goes right back
to when you and I had the pod, did the
podcast about the arbitrage in gold, and we saw it
all starting to lay out in the gold market then,
and it's all downstream of that. This is just variations
on a similar theme. So that's what that said, my friend.
I think we've probably blown each other's minds and everybody

(01:25:08):
else's minds enough for one day. So why don't we
pick this conversation back up a couple of months from now.
We'll see where we are and.

Speaker 2 (01:25:15):
There, so thank you.

Speaker 1 (01:25:17):
Let everybody know where they can find you, and do
the thing, do the cella.

Speaker 2 (01:25:23):
Gold fixed subst and hopefully I think most of your
people know by now. And I love being here at
thanks for having me. And mean while, I'm looking at
Indian Pakistan trading gunfire right now, right now, and it
must be wearing a Union jack on their backs up man,
you know.

Speaker 1 (01:25:42):
And and I'll tell you right now, A regime change
operation together Pakistan also works. If the United States helps
that process along, that will be stress China in a
great number of ways as well, because the people who
are running Pakistan right now are not operating in Pakistan's
best interest. In Moron. That's why they put in Moron

(01:26:03):
con and jail. We could we could do another half
an hour on that, but just understand that's why this
is blowing up now. So with that said, he said,
he's soaring tech on on Twitter, I'm TfL seventeen twenty
eight Patroon slash gold, Goats and Guns. We're out. Have
a great weekend. Keep your stick on the ice.

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Episode #215 - Vince Lanci and the Trump Powell Accord

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Episode #215 - Vince Lanci and the Trump Powell Accord