2024 Week 14 Card: The Definition of Insanity

The Collective goes back to the well with a few familiar faces in Week 14. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Then welcome back to air Gamble, the only podcast it
puts its money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
rich Ron, and I'm joined by the entire collective of
the Disciple, Brett Colson, Donnie DP Peters, and the resident
Moose himself, Monawara. If you're watching this on YouTube, please

(00:33):
like the video and subscribe to the channel listeners, rate
and review on your podcatcher of choice. Five stars only,
And I can't believe I missed this the last time
when the Lion's played ah, because I have an entire
spreadsheet of really goofy five star players five stars only,

(00:54):
like Donovan People's Jones, returner for the Detroit Lions, Michigan
wide receiver, former Cleveland Browns. I feel like he was
one of your heart throbs, Brett, you just like to
collect scummy Cleveland Brown's receivers, Jerry Judy, like these guys

(01:16):
just seem like right up your alley.

Speaker 2 (01:17):
I don't think he was one of them. You're right, though,
I do. I love the Elijah Moors like I love
all those guys.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
I'm very happy to see most faces because mo in
a couple of hours minutes is going to be on
a flight to Las Vegas to actually stay at Casa
Peters because, Mo, you gain entry into the WPT's Big
Shindig Golden Passport million free roll giveaway.

Speaker 3 (01:45):
What's going on?

Speaker 2 (01:46):
Mo?

Speaker 4 (01:47):
Yeah, I managed to win a seat valued at twenty
five hundred.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:52):
I'm looking at that with a skeptical eye both ways,
so I'm just like, who knows, But uh, it should
be a fun event, like Donnie said. Donnie texted me
that like eighty percent of the players have never played
a buying over five hundred dollars or something, so should
be pretty amazing. But I don't know, a lot of

(02:13):
good players are winning seats now, so Josh just want
a seat the other.

Speaker 3 (02:16):
Day winning seats a lot of good players winning.

Speaker 4 (02:19):
Josh actually earned his by playing poker like I did,
so he won a saddy online. There's a bunch of
people winning those saddies now, so it's going to be
a tougher field now than it probably would have been
a week ago, but still going to be very good value.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
And who can complain about a free rule.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
Well, we will be rooting you on and Donnie and
I'm wearing the Poker Go podcast hat. We launched play poker,
Go Donnie and Iron business once again. The band is
back together, DP.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
We were never not together. What are you talking about?
Come on, so little bit truly? Well, just got a
new show, that's right.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
Well, one day Donnie will be the Czar of poker
and I will be just one of his lackeys one day.
Come on, Donald, you're making all these whack ass appointments.
Can we get Can we get another Donald Tzar of poker?
Let's fix it, all right, mo whenever you need to go,
just give me like the flag something and then we'll

(03:19):
we'll get to your pick and and you exactly and
you can you can get on out of here and
we're going to start in the AFC North do real quick?
Do we want to talk about the fourth down last night?
There's a Matt Clark legend in the discord bit that
l y slash discord moose uh fervent believer that a

(03:43):
dot has to be the max, all fourth downs must
be gone. He was ecstatic that Dan Campbell went for
that fourth down last night. I thought it was a
little crazy, and I'm definitely in favor of pushing edges
in these spots. The Ben Baldwin bot had it as

(04:05):
a field goal, but even Ben Baldwin himself in his
notes on his automated bot says that there is no
solve for these endgame scenarios that he doesn't even trust
his math here. So the bot had it as like
a three percentage edge towards kicking the field goal, but
me personally having a literal full games worth of data,

(04:27):
the Lions were getting their ass kicked on short yardage
rusting situations. They had run the ball four times in
one yard or shorter to go situations in that game.
They had only converted on one of them, and they
had a negative five EPA on those plays. So just
from a game state, the Packers had some sort of
advantage to that point on those short down rushing situations.

(04:49):
But I mean, Brett, you've dumped on the guy. Man
Campbell did the Man Campbell thing. He's able to look
his guys in the eyes in the locker room after
that game and say, this is our into football, Like
when it mattered the most, we we just went for it.

Speaker 2 (05:04):
I have to wonder, though, do these do these players
sit together and they're like, does this guy know what
he's doing? Are we just are we just cramming our
chips in like I I have to, I have to wonder,
like I truly don't think this guy looks at the math.
He doesn't look at the the analytics. He's just like

(05:25):
it's all gut with him. And I think that it
bit him last year in the playoffs when he was
he was going forward at what was it at fourth
and whatever at the eight yard line? I got I
I don't think. I don't think it's right. Uh it worked,
of course, and look he did the right thing early
in the game too, going forward on fourth and goal,

(05:47):
but that was that was the right decision. Analytically, this
I don't think this was. And I think this is
just the kind of stuff that yeah, his team buys
in and they love it, but it's gonna it's gonna
bite them in the end.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
Donny, you've been touting a Bill's line super Bowl. I
don't know if Brett could handle it.

Speaker 3 (06:04):
I don't know. I don't know if either fan based
handle it. I mean, could you imagine it'd be incredible? Absolutely,
you get so close and then for fifty percent it's
just going to get ripped away and then the other
side is absolutely going to burn down wherever the super
Bowl is, and they're probably going to march back to
their certity, burning everything in their path. I can't wait

(06:27):
for no put a pin on it.

Speaker 1 (06:28):
Where were we at on this this fourth down shows
by Campbell?

Speaker 4 (06:31):
I thought it was a little bit loony, but whatever,
I guess. I just think when the other team doesn't
have timeouts, like I didn't have any confidence that his
defense was going to get a stop, and he clearly
felt the same. So that's an argument in favor of
going obviously, but you don't really like you're still a
favorite to get a stop when they have no timeouts.

(06:52):
I think like you probably just need two tackles in
bounds and the game is basically over for.

Speaker 1 (06:57):
Sure for sure, and you get then where even if
they get a field goal attempt, it could be the
fire jill right where in those scenarios where there's eleven
twenty two guys shuttling on and off the field, things
happened illegal motion, two many men on the field, Like,
I think there were a lot of outs to Green

(07:18):
Bay not having success even if you missed the field goal,
and on top of that, you needed to hit a
parlay to make the field goal in this scenario, and
I understand that the Baldwin bot had them at ninety
one percent to convert. I think that's I think that's
pretty that's a that's I think part of what's going
into that is that in that normal down and distance

(07:41):
at another part of the game and maybe for another team,
I think passing the ball was an option. I don't
think passing the ball was ever an option on that
play for the Lions, which I actually think brought down
their odds of converting because it didn't make their attack
more multiple.

Speaker 3 (07:58):
It was probably razor thin.

Speaker 1 (07:59):
It's probably close to fifty to fifty, and uh, it
leaves a fun watch.

Speaker 3 (08:04):
How do you play defense in that spot?

Speaker 1 (08:06):
I go go line like if you're gonna if you're
gonna throw, no, no.

Speaker 3 (08:11):
What I'm saying is that you you absolutely cannot jump
off sides, so you're like you're like a half second
behind because you have to make sure the ball is snapped.
Whereas if that's in the second quarter, you basically take
a shot to like time the snap there. You can't
do it.

Speaker 1 (08:29):
You basically need well.

Speaker 3 (08:30):
You you feel almost you're you're kind of like frozen
because you know if you jump off sides. You're you
totally fucked.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
It all up. Yeah, you basically need all of your
D linemen ball watching, and what your D linemen are
supposed to do is just create a lane for your
linebackers and safeties to fill. That's that's essentially what you're
at because you're right. You can't ask your D line
to try to win that down, right because if they
jump right, if they try to get that that quick
twitch like, that's the ball game right there. So you

(08:57):
basically need your defenders to be this. Let you're lineman
to be disciplined, and then your linebackers just have to fill.
And credit to the Lions, they did a tremendous job
on that play, creating that edge and getting Montgomery across
the line. All right, let's get to Sunday. Ah Brett,
you and I are the only people that understood the
assignment Bears at Niners. The Niners are minus four of

(09:19):
the contests and more. You're furrowing your brow over there.
But at this point of the season, well, I guess
there's a new quarter starting, so maybe just picking normal
games actually has some value to us.

Speaker 3 (09:31):
But at this point of the season, of course it does.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
Of the season we need, we need some points and
this is going to be the leverage spot of the week.
Cooly is going to click the Niners as favorites.

Speaker 3 (09:45):
Brett, Yeah, not many.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
And look, maybe the Niners are a bad football team
right now. I don't think they are, but there is
sentiment out there obviously that this team is cooked. What
I'm looking at here, though, is a huge market adjustment
off look ahead off the opener, which was six. Yes,
Niners lost Christian McCaffrey. Now they're down Jordan Mason. Jordan
Mason doesn't matter. But this is a team still in

(10:10):
a division race, a team that has a lot to
play for, still coming off an embarrassing loss in primetime
in the snow. They can now they get to return
home for a couple of games, hit reset ahead of
a It's a tough stretch of games they've got coming up.
They probably need to go like four and one during
this stretch in order to get into the playoffs. And
I trust that they can still do that. They have
the experience to get this done. On the other side,

(10:34):
the Bears do check a box here. They have a
new coach coming in. We do like that upgrade when
this happens. But I can't get past the market adjustment
in this game. I think you have to buy the
Niners at their bottom against a team that has nothing
left to play for, and the public is totally off
this Niners team, and I think the contest probably will
be too, And that's the cap.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
Also, what if Isaac Grendo is just better than a
hobbled Christian McCaffrey, Like, all this Girndo guy has done?
Are you talking, dude? All this girndo guy has done
this year is okay? Yeah, I said hobbled. I didn't
say full strength. All this Gonda guy.

Speaker 4 (11:12):
I can't believe we're talking about Isaac Garnde.

Speaker 3 (11:15):
If McCaffrey can't run, you could put us out there.
And Grendo has multiple.

Speaker 1 (11:20):
Like sixty yard runs this season in like situations.

Speaker 3 (11:24):
Where it matters.

Speaker 1 (11:25):
I think the thing that is playing into this the
most for me is that the coach dead cat bounce
thing has been so baked in to market sentiment this
year that people are going to line up to click
that when last week, all Thomas Brown had to do
was to sign the offense and call plays. Now Thomas

(11:46):
Brown has to coach the whole damn team. So there's
a world where he was more optimal than Shane Waldron
to run the offense right, But now because his role
has increased over the entire team, now his attention is
being pulled away from the offense, which is showing some
signs of life. He has to coach defense and special teams,
and whatever effort he was putting in is actually going

(12:08):
to be diminished by the fact that he has a
much larger role in this coaching staff. So look, I
was the guy on here last week that said take
the Bills minus seven, and I want Purty in there,
because I think that these guys are dead men walking
going into the cold, going into the snow, and they're
going to get their ass kicked. And that's what happened.
But the Bears are not a good football team. Okay,

(12:28):
They've shown that throughout the season. The Lions handed them
every opportunity to beat them last week in a rivalry
game in front of the world, and the Bears did
everything they could to piss that away. Yeah, some of
it was on Aberflus not calling a timeout, but some
of it was also on Caleb changing the play and
also not calling a time out, and he'll still be

(12:48):
under center for the Bears.

Speaker 3 (12:50):
MO pick up the shield for Shytown.

Speaker 4 (12:54):
How do we know the Niners are better than the Bears? Guys,
they don't have any players left. Trent Williams is out,
Nick Bosa is out, their starting guard is out.

Speaker 3 (13:03):
I mean, I don't know if the Niners is better
than that.

Speaker 1 (13:07):
You know, because we got the og exciting Whites. Okay,
we still got Kittle and used check and goddamn it,
that's all that.

Speaker 4 (13:13):
Matters capping for fullbacks. I don't know what this Niners
team is, man, I don't know what's left of this
Niners team. What if Brock Purty is bad like we
thought all of a sudden, when all the starting the
supporting pieces are gone, he looks pretty rough. I mean,
I don't know if this is a I don't know

(13:34):
if the Niners deserve to be power rated in the
top fifteen of the NFL at this point with what
the players.

Speaker 1 (13:39):
They have left.

Speaker 3 (13:40):
Yeah, if these guys come back, yeah, the.

Speaker 4 (13:41):
Niners should be a solid team, of course. I mean
I completely agree with Brett there, But what indication do
we have that they're coming back? I mean, they haven't
practiced they didn't play last week. Like, I don't know,
I need to see these guys playing football before I
believe in it. And I don't know if what the
Bears coming off extra rest and are just playing.

Speaker 2 (14:01):
Better ball than the Niners right now, they just are.

Speaker 3 (14:05):
You can't say they're not.

Speaker 4 (14:06):
They're in a competitive game every week against good teams.

Speaker 1 (14:09):
That's also why six hundred seven hundred more people are
going to take the Bears plus the points in the
contest this week as opposed to the Niners. All right,
let's move to another spot where come on circa double
bird game out West Hawks at Cardinals. They made the
Cardinals a full field goal favorite in this spot, and

(14:32):
I think we all like the Hawks plus the two
and a half. I can tell that because this is
a split game. But Brett, the reason why it's a
split game is because you're going full leverage on Arizona here.
But I think we all like this this Seattle team.
I for one, am buying into this Mike McDonald resurgence
on defense. I think it makes a lot of sense

(14:54):
that posts by this team has looked a lot better
on that side of the ball, top five in EPA
per play, but with the full three Brett. Every single
person is just gonna take the field goal with the Hawks.

Speaker 2 (15:06):
Yeah. Look, I'm not saying that Arizona is the right
side at this number if you're betting this game, but
this will be a plus ev spot I think in
the contest because Seattle will be the most popular play
in the contest. The number is moving in Seattle's favor.
This is going to be probably two and a half
Saturday when people are submitting their cards. This just comes
down to handicapping. Doesn't matter when everybody is seeing the

(15:29):
same things with these fixed lines, you just have to
go anti fragile, go against the grain, and hope that
Kyler and company can continue to move the ball through
the air consistently and the defense can get some stops.
Maybe Gino goes back to shooting himself in the foot
on the road. That's always in play too. So this
has Again, this has nothing to do with me liking
Arizona in this spot. This is just a contest play.

Speaker 1 (15:51):
Donny. I feel like you've been the contest disciple of
late and you two clicked the Cardinals. But again, I
think given our pro Seahawks sentiment on this part, even
you couldn't muster any confidence points on them.

Speaker 3 (16:03):
I had zero idea what to do with this one.
I mean, I was thought about the leverage spot. I
kind of talked to myself out of it. Ultimately, I
just clicked on the Cardinals. I put it at the
bottom or near the bottom. I mean, that's just I
didn't really know what to do here, so not really
look at me with too much conviction.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
MO, you and I on the Hawks. Let's give them
the Let's get the folks the actual handicap here outside
of the contest on why I mean, at three, the
Hawks are like the way obvious side.

Speaker 4 (16:31):
Yeah, the metrics are telling me the Cardinals are a
better team than the Seahawks, but to me, these teams
are just even. I don't see much difference between them,
especially when you look at obviously, Like you said, the
way the Seahawks events has played since the buy first
in EPA, fourth and success rate, And it's not like

(16:52):
they've played like a great set of opponents. But they
haven't played a bad set of opponents either. The Niners
when they were healthier, you know, the Cardinals, whatever the
remains of the Jets are. I mean, this wasn't three
weeks against you know, the Panthers, the Raiders, and you know,
pick your.

Speaker 3 (17:09):
Other bottom dweller.

Speaker 4 (17:10):
Like, they played some decent teams, and I don't understand
why the metrics like the Cardinals so much. I personally
think these teams are close to even. There's some juicy
threes out there in the market still. I think that's okay,
But I think I'd rather just play.

Speaker 1 (17:26):
The money line, I guess.

Speaker 4 (17:27):
I mean, I don't know that it's wide range of
outcomes all year with Arizona, and then you have Geno
who's gonna do the spectacular and the absolutely idiotics, So
just give me the money line, I think here.

Speaker 1 (17:40):
I was impressed with how the Hawks dealt with adversity
last week because the mistakes that were made by Laviskaschnault
were absolutely unforgivable. Obviously another one of Brett's boys, obviously guy, Yeah,
obviously he gets shitcanned on Tuesday, Like figure it out,
my guy, Like if you can't, if you can, if
you can't catch a kickoff at this point, you can't

(18:04):
be in the league.

Speaker 3 (18:04):
Like good luck on the battle Hawks in April, my guy.

Speaker 1 (18:09):
And the Jets get a kick return touchdown themselves from
a guy who's been on the practice squad all year,
and yet the Hawks found a way to dig their
heels in, play a tough game, one of the longest
road trips of the year, and win the football game.
And that's one of those spots with that kind of

(18:29):
resolved in that kind of outcome, where what can you
point to in those scenarios And it tends to be coaching,
So it makes me want to buy in a little
bit more to McDonald, we've talked about Seahawks maybe being
the spoiler in the NFC in the discord, mo, I
know you grabbed a plus four thousand ticket correct to

(18:49):
win the NFC. I mean, they just have the makeup
and you're probably sitting there and you're thinking, rich, what
are you talking about. Gino can absolutely blow it all
on one play, and that's one hundred percent true. But
on the flip side, when you're going to be a
touchdown dog in Detroit or in Philadelphia, that's the type
of variance you're gonna need to introduce to have those

(19:11):
high end outcomes and have these upsets and potentially play
spoiler in the playoffs. Another bird cook, Atlanta Falcons travel
to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. The Vikings are
minus five and a half in a revenge spot for
kirk Cousins, but ken kirk Cousins move and complete forward passes.

(19:37):
Step doesn't think so because he's got Minnesota in his
top five.

Speaker 3 (19:42):
I think a lot of people are talking about if
you want to talk about leverage like the kirk Cousins
bounce back or whatever here. I mean, I don't know.
What we saw last week. I thought was horrendous. I mean,
the guy couldn't throw the ball at all, Like I
can throw a football faster than he threw a football yesterday.

(20:03):
And I have no like shame in saying that whatsoever.
I mean, it was unbelievable. So is this just the
the cliff? Like did kirk Cousins just hit the cliff?
Which is is fine, you get old. It just it
just happens. You drop off a map. It fucking happened
to me, and I'm sure it happened to everyone on
this podcast. Like you, one day you wake up, you

(20:25):
just can't get your ass out of bed. That's just
how life is, man, And I can only imagine it's
one thousand times worse when you're playing professional football and
we've seen it a million times now, not that the
Vikings defense. I think the Vikings defense is I guess
a little bit overrated. I think up front and what
Flores does bringing pressure is certainly warranted. For the praise

(20:46):
that he gets, I think the secondary could be had.
That said, if you're gonna speed up Kirk Cousins, how
is that gonna work out? So so I don't I
don't see it. I mean I think I think, oh,
I think you might have said it last week or
the week before. But like this Falcons team, we kind
of feel like they're just whatever, Like they're not like

(21:08):
some people kind of talk themselves into it a lot.
No one really thinks that they're bad, but you know,
they're just kind of whatever, right, And so I don't know.
I think the Vikings are a bit of a better
team here. So I think ultimately Kirk Cousins is going
to be the big negative here. Now, if there was
any way, shape or form that Pendix were to get
in the game, it'd have to change my tune because

(21:28):
I just think a younger, sprier guy getting in there
with some pop in his arm can can do some things.
But with Cousins, no I'm not buying any.

Speaker 1 (21:37):
I mean, you look at it. The two old guys
that snapped their achilles off last year, Kirk Cousins Aaron
Rodgers not having the best seasons. All of that being said,
gosh that I want to love the Falcons this week,
Oh man, I wanted to get them into my top

(21:59):
five because this has moved a point off of just
the worst game possible from Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Vikings, I mean,
it took every effort to beat the Cardinals. I know
we all had the Cardinals plus three and a half
last week. That comes home, but I just think we're
getting a free point this week in a spot where
Sam Darnold is just as apt to have a game like.

Speaker 3 (22:23):
Kirk Gussins just did.

Speaker 1 (22:27):
But I mean, there's just there's just a world where
Kirk is toast and I don't know if they have
the stones necessary to pull the plug on their two
hundred million dollar quarterback and put Michael Pennix in there.
So ultimately, that's why I couldn't get the Falcons into
my top five. Moe, you've got to go, So let's

(22:51):
touch upon your loan wolf real quick and then we'll
get your pick. I'll play just I'll just going to
play the the I wu okay, ye wou you thought
we made a mistake because all of us have the
Eagles minus twelve and a half and you're the only
person with the Panthers plus twelve.

Speaker 4 (23:11):
Yeah, isn't this like the worst spot of the season
for the Eagles? I mean, what, they're gonna be sleepwalking.
They're playing a bad team, and they just came off
a huge primetime win and now they're going into a
bunch of big games coming up. I don't know if
the staff is going to spend two hours prepping for
this game. Guys, the Panthers are going to cover, I think,

(23:33):
but I will acknowledge that if the Eagles train starts
rolling down the tracks and Saquan starts ripping off thirty
yard runs, this could get out of hand. But I
trust the Panthers offense to score a few points, and
I don't think you need more than a few points
to cover twelve and a half to be honest, So

(23:55):
I think Bryce Young's improvement is legitimate.

Speaker 1 (23:58):
So I'm in at twelve and a half and a
bad spot for the other team. I think the first
thing we have to say is a collective miacolpa to
Brett for his take last week on Bryce Young potentially
being better than c J strowd immediate returns. But but

(24:26):
this is Bryce's first football game in a long time, right,
first road game, first game against a very good team.
Rooting for the kid. But it's definitely a tough spot.
And isn't this the spot where the Eagles just try
to get saquon the heisman?

Speaker 3 (24:42):
Right?

Speaker 1 (24:42):
They just try to get three hundred rushing yards in
this game against a Panther's defense which still remains as
bad as advertised, with Bucky Irving looking like Barry Sanders
last week in the So that's the only part of
this gap. But mo, let's get to your pick. Who

(25:04):
are you putting on the card right now?

Speaker 4 (25:06):
I've got the Giants, so I want to see what
you guys have to say this one. So I want
to say I like the Bears more. But I followed
Brett's rule of we need hooks, and we need preferably leverage,
but definitely hooks so we can try to win this
closing stretch because we need full points and not half points.

(25:29):
And I don't know how the Saints can be really
laying more than three here.

Speaker 3 (25:32):
To be honest with you, guys, they don't have Tassom.

Speaker 4 (25:35):
I mean, doesn't that matter at this point when you've
lost all these other weapons. How are the Saints going
to score touchdowns? I just don't know how they score
touchdowns now.

Speaker 3 (25:44):
They have a weekly.

Speaker 4 (25:46):
Forty yard bomb to MBS, but they're playing outside in
the wind now, so I don't know if they're going
to be able to connect on those. So this is
basically Kamara or bust. I guess I don't know how
else they're going to score touchdowns. So unless Kamara can
cover you know, four and a half on his own,
which hey, he's a great player, but I know that
there's some concerns here. Dexter Lawrence being out obviously as massive,

(26:10):
and Drew Locke is horrific apparently man oh Man, I
cannot believe I'm back on the Giants this week. But
he was under a pressure against Dallas. He shouldn't be
under pressure against the Saints team that is pretty poor
at getting to the quarterback. So maybe he can complete
some passes this week. I just don't know how this
Saints team can be laying this many points on the road.
I know the Giants are bad, but this just just

(26:30):
seems too much to me.

Speaker 1 (26:32):
Okay, Mo had to split having technical issues over here,
but he will be happy to hear that this Giants
selection was a consensus pick. I lied before, By the way,
I did make the Falcons into my top five. I
had my things sworded, so you'll see on YouTube previously
that the Falcons were in gold for me. But yeah,

(26:54):
I've got the Giants in my top five. Brett has
them bubbling his top five, shaking his head over there,
and DP, you are the lowest on the Giants, So
DP tell us your worries about going back to the
well with Drue Locke.

Speaker 3 (27:09):
I mean, the Giants suck. What you want me to say,
I mean, but this, this for sure feels like it
has to be the right side. I mean, I'm just
I don't know. I mean, the Giants are just horrendous
to me. Don't lay points with bad teams. Don't lay
points on the road with bad teams.

Speaker 1 (27:31):
And while Moe is correct that the rushing attack of
Alvin Kamara is very worrisome against the Giants defense, that
would be without Dexter Lawrence, who does a ton in
the middle for them, Brett, I really think the Saints
are going to miss your guy, Tayso Hill. He was
playing on a ton of leverage downs, making a ton

(27:54):
of big plays, and now they just have dumb, dumb
car out there playing quarterback.

Speaker 3 (27:59):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (27:59):
I think you're right. Taysom Hill does matter. Finally, Rich, Finally,
Rich is on our side. Taysom Hill football player. My
biggest concern here is that the Saints look as healthy
as they've been in a while on the offensive line.
So without Dexter Lawrence on the Giants defensive line, this
might just be a run straight game for the Saints.
That said, how do you cover four and a half

(28:19):
running the football? I think with the Saints you also
have to wonder about motivation, like they're all but out
of the playoff race. Not in the same dire situation
the Giants are in, but you legitimately have to wonder
if you're going to get effort from New Orleans in
this game and going forward. So I think the Giants
are the right side. Here we are again every week.
The Giants are the right side, but they never ever

(28:40):
come through for us. They're becoming the Titans.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
Okay, let's time hot back to our last split game,
Raiders at Bucks, and it's said that we just missed
Mo because he had the highest opinion on this game,
with the Raiders in his top five, and I initially
want to be there with him after watching Aid and
O'Connell have so much success throwing too, I guess the

(29:05):
greatest tight end of all time in brock Bours. But
there's just a part of me that worries. For two reasons.
I think this will be popular because the Raiders tend
to be popular in a Las Vegas based contest. Everybody
watched the Raiders have success in that Island game, and

(29:25):
everybody also then watched the Bucks in a short four
PM window with only three games, play a game to
the wire in overtime against the Carolina Panthers. So I
think everybody's knee jerk reaction to this game is how
can the Bucks feeling a full touchdown? I agree with them,
but ultimately that is why I couldn't muster a strong
opinion on this game. DP, You've got the strongest opinion

(29:48):
on the other side on the Bucks fading your hometown
Vegas Raiders.

Speaker 3 (29:54):
Yeah, you guys know, a max fade on the Raiders
at all times. I mean, they're gonna get love. I
think one rich you mentioned that. I mean, especially coming
off last week, right, I mean, I don't know how
they don't get love. I mean, listen, Max Crosby is

(30:15):
arguably the best player in the damn NFL. I mean,
that guy's freaking incredible. So he could give Baker a
ton of fits. And Baker under pressure is you know,
can be bad Baker, Yes, but if Baker can have
any resemblance of a pocket here, which I think he can,
he I can just cook and he's been cooking all season.
So I think this is a great spot after what

(30:37):
we saw last week, where I think the contest is
going to be on for the Bucks to just get
a big blowout win here and you know, they get
to play at home. The Raiders got to do the
whole travel thing. So so yeah, I mean I could
easily see the Bucks winning by you know, ten fourteen
something like that, and it's just, yeah, this is all Baker,

(31:02):
that stupid pass offense or whatever. You just cover Brock
Bowers for the love of God. All right.

Speaker 1 (31:10):
A very wonky split game segment with a mopic and
a mo lone Wolf sprinkled m Now it's time for
the rest of the lone wolves, all right. I think

(31:32):
my one lone wolf in my top five is essentially
a pure leverage play, But I'm also interested in the spot.
The Bills make me wanna Brett, you're freeing your brow.
But everybody in this contest love Sean mcvayh they love
the Los Angeles Rams. I've heard several fake sharps this

(31:56):
week give out the Rams anything above a field goal,
and I think that the Bills can kind of just
bully this Rams team. Where the Rams have had success
so far this year is pressuring the quarterback right Jared

(32:20):
versus just stepping into the league and being an absolute
animal is something that I don't think we could have
accounted for them. Going from Aaron Donald into the wilderness
of trying to rebuild a d line and then having
success immediately is a pretty incredible job by them. But
I think the type of pressure that they generate doesn't

(32:45):
work as effectively against a quarterback like Josh Allen, who
has elite escapability and an elite ability to throw while
he's on the move. We've cited the stat numerous times
about when he's an inch from the sideline. His his
QBR and EP on those attempts is like astronomically higher
than anybody. The other thing I'm really interested in is

(33:07):
the Bills getting healthy at the right time. Right we
saw Milano get back last week. Kean Coleman looks like
he's trending towards returning this week. So the Bills are
getting reinforcements at the right time. And now we get
Josh Allen indoors against a team that I think is

(33:30):
just average, but people are papering over that because they
have an elite coach like Sean McVay. And the other
thing I want to note, I don't think enough people
are talking about this ankle injury for Matthew Stafford. It's
a lateral ankle sprain, and from all the stuff that
I've looked at position players that need to move, this

(33:53):
is a two to three week injury normally. Obviously the
quarterback doesn't have to move as laterally or with as
much quickness as other players. That's especially true when your
quarterback is Matt Stafford and he's not somebody who's gonna
escape the pocket and make plays that's not necessarily part
of his game. He's very much a drop step, quick
out quarterback. That being said, like, there's just gonna be

(34:16):
times in a football game where it is necessary because
of the violence of it to be mobile and to
protect yourself. So I've got that in the back of
my head a little bit. So I've got leverage, I've
got Josh Allen Indoors, I've got a Bills team getting healthy,
and I've got a very weird injury situation for Matthew

(34:37):
Stafford Brett. I gotta go to you first. These are
your Bills, but you've got the Rams.

Speaker 2 (34:42):
I don't think this is going to be leverage for
the Bills. It'll probably be close, but I'm not using
leveragees as a reason to take this game.

Speaker 3 (34:48):
To me.

Speaker 2 (34:49):
This is just a cell spot on Buffalo. After that
signature win last week in the snow everybody watching they
clearly had massive advantage in that game. Buffalo looks great.
The defense will only continue to look better with Milano
getting more snaps in this defense. But the stock on
this team has it's probably peaked seven straight wins. Now,

(35:10):
they go across the contrary against a potential playoff team
that is playing for everything right now, and they got
the QB and the weapons on offense to keep this close.
I like the Rams getting the three and a half
and I yeah.

Speaker 3 (35:25):
I don't.

Speaker 1 (35:25):
I know you're gonna say it.

Speaker 3 (35:26):
I know you're gonna say it.

Speaker 2 (35:29):
Could be money line. Could be money line, dude. The
Bills play the Lions next week, Like, I'm not saying
this is a this is a spot where they're going
to overlook the Rams, but they've got a big one coming.

Speaker 3 (35:44):
Up next week.

Speaker 1 (35:45):
Anybody watching on YouTube's on the discussed on Donnie's face
as well, because he too has the Rams in the
top five.

Speaker 3 (35:51):
Yeah, my disgust was because you're acting like Matthew Stafford
isn't the toughest SOB in the West. I mean, come on,
an ankle injury, buddy, Come on, he ain't gonna be affected.
As you said, he doesn't run around and as I'm saying,
he's been playing with injury his entire career. And the
guy just goes out there and does it. Okay. I mean,

(36:13):
I'm with Brett on the I don't think this is
leverage spot, which which allowed me to push it higher
up in my card. You're selling the Bills after last
week's blowout wind in the snow doing all this crazy shit,
Josh Allen throwing and catching touchdowns to himself. The week

(36:34):
before that, they hand the Chiefs their first loss of
the season. Like, I mean, you got to sell at
some point, right, I mean, and and this feels like
a great spot to sell because you get a you
get a quality team the Rams, McVeigh, Stafford, they got weapons,
they can move the ball like they can they can
cause some havoc on defense for for the Bills. So

(36:57):
so yeah, I mean, listen, it's not if the Bills
lose this game. If Brett's you know, maybe money line
comes through, then it's not the end of the world
for Buffalo. It's not right, It's just, you know, it's
just a kind of a bad spot to two games
that you just come off of where you're flying high.
You got the Lions look ahead, you got to travel
out west, all this sort of stuff. Decent game, they

(37:18):
are decent team, good coach, right, So yeah, why can't
the Rams just win this game?

Speaker 1 (37:23):
Out right?

Speaker 3 (37:23):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (37:23):
I just don't think that the market has adjusted enough
on this Bills team. I mean, the lookout it was
three and a half and it's it's glued at that
number despite those two massive wins back to back. So
and if any Rams the room to go.

Speaker 3 (37:38):
Aquad every week. Every week, they just show up and
they play solid.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
Yeah, they're solid, They're solid. I think people are prescribing
former Rams offensive attributes to this Rams offense because it
is just kind of average, right. They show flashes from
time to time, but on the whole, they're just an
okay offense. Like Cup is looking his age, and as
much as I love Puka, like he's starting to do

(38:05):
the Tyreek thing where there's like once a.

Speaker 3 (38:07):
Game he's in the tent because something.

Speaker 1 (38:10):
Has happened to him.

Speaker 3 (38:12):
But that is my only lone wolf.

Speaker 1 (38:14):
We will go to Brett, who has another AFC East
loan wolf. He said in the group chat to my
statement that Miami, the greatest level team, the greatest team

(38:35):
was gonna score forty, he said that Jets could just
match it. Old man Aaron Rodgers is just gonna roll
down the South beach, chuck the ball around the yard
like it's two thousand and seven.

Speaker 3 (38:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (38:49):
I said that before looking at Miami's injury report, because
Miami Miami, coming out of that game last week, that
secondary was ravaged. Uh, totally depleted. That looks better going
into this one now after the news on Thursday, Kendle
Fuller upgraded to full practice. Look, I want to click
the Jets every week for heaps, but again this comes

(39:09):
back to how do we cap these teams whose seasons
are over, especially once they had so much ipe, so
much fuel coming into the year. Like, ultimately, I'd move
this toward the bottom of my car, because while I
do think the Jets could just win this game, there's
no way of knowing how motivated they're going to be
to even show up for a divisional game anymore. So, Yes,

(39:31):
I clicked Jets, but I continue to push this team
down because I have to give up on any priors
I had going into the year.

Speaker 1 (39:38):
The biggest injury in this game is on the defensive
side of the ball for my fighting New York Jets,
and it's Ahmad Sauce Gardner, who has received a lot
of crap this year, including from yours truly, but last week,
when it mattered at the goal line in a slant
situation against one of the toughest dudes in the league
to defend on a slant, Sauce gets the big pass

(40:00):
breakup what happens when Sauce gets hurt when he pulls
his hamstring.

Speaker 3 (40:04):
Literally, the first.

Speaker 1 (40:06):
Play is a forty yard DPI on some backup trying
to cover dk Metcalf. Sauce very much matters to this
defense and what's gonna happen when you have a team
on the other side, Although they haven't performed up to
snuff with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell. I shudder to

(40:26):
think of the opportunities that to a taga Velo is
going to have to throw in this game. DPU two
are on the fish.

Speaker 3 (40:35):
Was the Jets going to show up as this team
not quit?

Speaker 2 (40:42):
What come?

Speaker 3 (40:43):
I mean, come on? This is pathetic. The team is pathetic.
In what universe could Aaron Rodgers ever keep up with
what the Dolphins could do on offense?

Speaker 1 (40:54):
We're getting lizard back.

Speaker 3 (40:56):
Oh yeah, yeah, maybe maybe maybe we'll maybe we'll hit
a Hill.

Speaker 2 (40:59):
Mary, there it is. There's your forty points? Is their
best offensive player.

Speaker 3 (41:03):
By a mile?

Speaker 1 (41:06):
Oh my? We tumble down Bret's card all the way
to the bottom where he is laying a full touchdown
with Russell Hustle and Bussell Wilson and the Pittsburgh.

Speaker 3 (41:17):
Steelers it's no longer Jamos week.

Speaker 1 (41:19):
Last week was the most literally, the most jamous week possible,
blowing our three into We blame their reverse body though,
because of that. Pick six got his five hundred yards
passing but can't get us the cover. So Brett, you're
fully off our guy, Jamis.

Speaker 2 (41:36):
This is so tough, man, Like, I don't know what
to do with the Steelers week to week because this
offense has been so reliant on explosive plays downfield with Russ,
And if we're anybody else, I would say this can't
be sustainable, Like this is clearly an outlier, but this
is the same way Russ's offenses in Seattle looks too.
We said the same exact thing about Russ and Lockett

(41:56):
and Doug Baldwin for years, and they I must have
had the worst record with Seattle during that stretch because
I always faded them because I'm like, this can't be sustainable.
We have enough tape now to say this is just Russ.
This is what makes him so dangerous, his ability to
put dudes in the right position to make plays on

(42:17):
these moonballs. He's just the best at it. And then
on the other side, like we love Jamis the dudes
exciting and I would typically back him in the spot
because his range of outcomes is so wide, but I
think it's more likely we get a bottom range here
with Jamis in the spot in negative script on the
road against the defense that's getting a stud pass rusher

(42:40):
and high smith back this week. This could just be
a role show in Pittsburgh Cleveland's I mean, this team's cooked. Really,
I think you're hoping for a backdoor cover here with Jamis.

Speaker 1 (42:49):
Yeah, at some point we just had to sit back
and say Russ is going to be the low success
rate high EPA quarterback. He is going to land these
big plays because it is a skill of his to
throw these moon balls and give his receivers a chance
to make a play. And as crazy as he is,
George Pickens was like made in a lab to be

(43:10):
the guy to go downfield and make a play. What's
scary about Cleveland in this matchup is that Cleveland is
like the most inviting team to this type of attack
because they are seventh in pasty success rate and twentieth
in pasty EPA, so on a down to down basis,
they are very solid. But as we saw on Monday night,

(43:31):
football with that massive play to Marvin Mims. The Cleveland
defense is susceptible to the big play. All that being said,
DP is back on Jamis in his top five.

Speaker 3 (43:46):
You gotta sell the Steelers after last week. The Browns
are not as bad on defense as the Bengals. Like,
they're not going to score forty four points or whatever
the hell they scored last week. I don't care how
many moon balls Russell Wilson throws. It's just not going
to happen. And lo. Yeah, the range of outcomes for
Jamis can be pretty bad. Of course, we saw it

(44:06):
last week. There was plenty of good. There was plenty
of bat okay, I mean the guy threw three picks.
I mean it was you know, there was a lot
of bad out there. Seven points, divisional matchup. These games
are always close. Come on, I think everyone's going to
be on the Steelers too. Personally, I think people are
over Jameis Winston and what happened last week. They're high

(44:26):
on the Steelers generally the season. I think people are
high on the Steelers, and I don't necessarily hate that,
but you know, you also got to kind of pick
and choose your spots. But last week you play that
Bengals defense that is so effing bad. I mean, they're
just so bad.

Speaker 1 (44:40):
Seventy percent of the tickets on Pittsburgh. But of course
this did open at six and a half, so you
would assume that the majority of those shares are before
it hit a full seven. But I'm not seeing a
lot of market support antecdotally for taking the seven with Cleveland.
If anything, the only thing I've heard this week is
once he got to the seven, is that the Steelers
are a good tease side, which they probably are, getting

(45:02):
them down to.

Speaker 3 (45:03):
The minus one.

Speaker 1 (45:06):
One thing I want to say real quick, going full
circle back to the start of the pot about Cleveland receivers.
I've always believed in the talent of Elijah Moore. I
think he had a bit of trouble between the years
while he was with the Jets, went through a bit
of a wasteland with Deshaun because DeShawn just wasn't an
accurate quarterback. But now that you got somewhere out someone

(45:28):
back there who I mean this for all Jamis's warts, right,
this was the guy that went one point one. This
is a guy that can spin the football. Elijah is cooking,
and I could definitely see I mean, especially in the
spot like this where if Elijah's in the slot, Steelers
historically horrific in the slot for all of Tomlin's tenure. Like,

(45:49):
I think Elijah could like sneaky be like a league
winner in fantasy here down the stretch. So I'm assuming
at this point he's been claimed in a lot of
your leagues out there, but I think a lot is
an interesting look as we get into the Fantasy playoffs, DP,
You've got the last lone wolf. It is your very
last selection. You are fading the collective's favorite team, the

(46:12):
Jacksonville Jaguars. You've got the Titans, ma Astree.

Speaker 3 (46:15):
Now, I mean they were my favorite team coming into
the season and they just, you know, absolutely went south.
I feel really good about this week because my lone
wolf is my last pick. It's my only lone wolf.
I don't have seven of them, Like I generally feel
pretty good here. This game, like the game between the
two Birds, the Cardinals and the Seahawks, I had no
I have an idea what to do here. I mean

(46:38):
Mac Jones looks ridiculous, of course, I mean the Titans
are ridiculous, yes, So I mean I have no, no
clue what to do.

Speaker 2 (46:47):
Back was good last week.

Speaker 1 (46:48):
I don't know if he was good last week. But
what I respect, I think the most obvious playing this game.
I'll guess you've Brett, You've have the highest opinion on
this game. You've loved Jacksonville. I think a total of
thirty nine is absolutely ludicrous. Like, I think we should
be betting alt overs in this game, because as bad
as Jacksonville played last week, they were throwing the ball downfield,

(47:10):
and you know who's open down the field, Brian Thomas Junior,
Like this dude could have had multiple fifty yard touchdowns
last week. And I think the Jags are going to
continue to do that, continue to push the envelope, even
with Mac Jones at quarterback. And yeah, I just think
a total thirty nine is absolutely ludicrous. That being said,
I did not have the strong enough opinion on Jacksonville,

(47:31):
or at least a strong one as strong ass mister Manati.

Speaker 2 (47:35):
The fact that the Titans of the public side here
tells you how low the stock is on the Jags.
And as high as I have been on the Titans
the past month versus the market, I can't get behind
them as a favorite north of three against a division rival,
and somehow this was as high as five and a
half early in the week, and smart people jumped on
that quickly. There's just too much variance in the Tennessee
offense to trust this team to win a football game,

(47:56):
much less cover by four points. And it looks like
the Titans are going to be the more popular side here,
so I have to click the Jacks again. I don't
think there will be a lot of people on either
side here, but I'm confident there will be. There will
be leverage on the Jags with Mac Jones under center.
Mac was good in relief last week against the Texans,

(48:16):
got the back door cover, got us a point. I
think the Jags, with Walker and Allen on the defensive
line can get enough pressure on Levis to put him
in some tough situations. And we know what happens to
Levis in those spots. So yeah, give me the Jags
in the contest. This is the only game this week
that will be in my account probably, and I am
looking at Rams money line too, but yeah, Jacks plus

(48:38):
three and a half, Jacks money line plus one fifty five,
I love that.

Speaker 3 (48:42):
Yeah, But Mac Jones off the bench mac Jones as
a starter. Those different things.

Speaker 2 (48:48):
Fair it is.

Speaker 1 (48:50):
It is definitely interesting when guys coming cold, how much
better they can perform because the team is prepared for
the other quarterback. Those spots are really interesting. There's just
something about these two teams that I think down the
stretch they could just be firecrackers. I mean, we've seen
it recently with the Titans with the emergence of West
per Kakini. Like the Jags have played the fifth toughest

(49:12):
schedule in football, the Titans have played the third toughest
schedule in football. These guys are both bottom six in
turnover EPA. Like the ball hasn't really bounced their way
this season, but going all the way back to the
summer during best ball. And it's funny because these guys
meet again in Week seventeen in one of those playoff
championship matchups. Like the pieces on these teams are really

(49:33):
fun and we're starting to see them come together. If
I mean, if mac Jones can complete some forward passes
and get the ball into the hands of Brian Thomas Junior,
those are the lone wolves. We've got one pick. Let's
fill out the rest the Week fourteen.

Speaker 3 (49:49):
Card nine.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
Three one fire.

Speaker 1 (50:07):
DP four and one last week, but was also a
winner at three and two. Moe and I were both
one and four, so it feels like a two and
three was a bit undeserved. Uh, with the average record, the.

Speaker 3 (50:22):
Whole season is undeserved. Okay, the whole thing. This is
the whole thing is a freaking joke.

Speaker 1 (50:28):
But it is the final quarter. Our guy ODB cast
for peanuts in the third quarter. I think he thirteen
hundred he got for tying the last position that was
paid in the third quarter. I believe he also has
a sweat over at the West Gate with one of
his entries. So we would be rooting ODB along and

(50:49):
DPU start this week with a player. Moe's going back
to the well with Drew Locke and Donnie. You were
bringing us back to the well with this quarter.

Speaker 3 (51:00):
Yeah, let's go eat a w James Winston Fred's face.
Come on, man, you can't have the Steelers can't be
touchdown favorites. Ever, this is a rule.

Speaker 2 (51:12):
We have to go through this paint again.

Speaker 3 (51:15):
Like you famously said, it's always Jamis week.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
It is always Jamis week, for better or worse.

Speaker 3 (51:23):
Yeah, when this game was seventeen fourteen in the fourth quarter. Okay,
just thank me that, Like seriously.

Speaker 1 (51:33):
That is bookmarked. All right, Brett, you also had a
winning record. You were up next, and you also have
a game. We just discussed you and you and Donnie
trading blows against each other's lone wolves.

Speaker 3 (51:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (51:43):
Last week I did not cap for mac Jones and
had the Jags on my card. We ended up with
mac Jones got us a point. This week, I am
capping for mac Jones and I will have the Jags
on the card for us.

Speaker 3 (51:52):
I gat.

Speaker 1 (51:55):
So we got most pick of Giants plus four and
a half. I had two picks tied one I had
ranked higher. It is a split game, and it's to
me the full average spot of the week.

Speaker 3 (52:07):
It is the.

Speaker 1 (52:08):
Niners minus four. But I can be convinced because this
is the start of a quarter to not go full
insane leverage and move a little bit further down my card.
But that was also a split game in Falcons plus
five and a half. So I'm gonna keep the Niners

(52:29):
four now, but I can be talked off of the ledge.
I am very happy to see this next pick as
the collective pick, but I fear it is also a
collective special, a leverage special, and I'm interested to hear
what you guys have to say about it.

Speaker 3 (53:00):
The collective chooses.

Speaker 1 (53:02):
The Kansas City Chiefs minus four at home against the
Los Angeles Chargers. It made everybody's top five except for Mo,
so I'll be interested to hear his opinion on this game.
He did, of course select the Chiefs, but he did

(53:23):
not have as strong an opinion as we did. Every
single person, just like we talked about with the Raiders,
watched I mean they've watched it all year. They've watched
the Chiefs team all year be completely unable to score
and extend leads and cover numbers, failing to cover over

(53:44):
and over and over and over again. So there is
a distinct possibility that we are just Martin galing this
Chiefs team to cover and they will once again just
win a comfy game against the Chargers, try to get
out of Arrowhead with a field goal VIC and keep
it pushing. There's a distinct possibility of that. The last

(54:07):
time these two guys played, though, however, the Chiefs were
pretty much in control. The difference is they did have
Rashie Rice at that time, and I think he definitely
matters to this offense, which is trying its best to
find somebody to lead this receiver corps. There's been some

(54:30):
signs of life from DeAndre Hopkins, but I don't think
it's come as full as necessary for them to be
big favorites in this spot. For me, this was just
a very strong leverage spot three and a half in
real life as well. Thirty one percent of the tickets
on Kansas City. So I think people are just gonna

(54:51):
pile hardball and mister Herbert and we might get a
good spot here. Brett, what say you on the chief.

Speaker 2 (55:00):
Yeah, potentially a huge upgrade to the Kansas City offensive
line with the return of DJ Humphreez at left tackle.
This could be the week where the Chiefs kick it
into full gear. We were into December they can clinch
the division, but now it's like they can clinch the
division with a win against a division rival who was
a few games behind them this week. Betters are completely

(55:23):
off the Chiefs, like you said, because they don't cover.
They barely beat these clown teams, and we see it
in the ticket count like I and I think we're
gonna see it reflected in the contest here too, with
a sitting north of three. I agree. I think people
are going to be all over the Chargers here, and
this is just a great spot for KC.

Speaker 1 (55:43):
Donny Pylon with your thoughts on the Chiefs, who are
in your top five.

Speaker 3 (55:49):
I mean this is just leverage for me, right, I
mean why literally everyone's going to click the Chargers. That's
all that everyone's gonna do. So I don't have any
other reason why not to click the Chiefs. Like I
basically went into this week like kind of the top
of my top half of my card is where I
put leverage and the bottom half is where I put
things that are non leverage. I mean, yeah, the Chiefs

(56:12):
can get right, you know, I know four points is
it's over a field goal, and yeah, you could you
could talk yourself into all the Chiefs will just win
by a field goal at the end of the game
and that sort of stuff. But they can get right.
I mean I saw mcconkeye was what limited yesterday, so.

Speaker 1 (56:31):
I was just about to I was just about to
bring it up. Lad McConkie is the entire charge. Yeah,
so like is he is he going to be?

Speaker 3 (56:38):
Yeah? He went he you know, improved to a limited practice. Okay,
so that's a positive sign. But is he going to
be ninety in the game, eighty five percent in the game, Like,
is that going to matter? I think it would matter
if you're going against the good Chiefs defense and that's
your only offense, right, So so yeah, I'm not really
sure what's going to happen there. I mean, that's you know,
a big question mark of course. But yeah, I mean

(57:01):
I just again, leverage. You just got to go with
the leverage here. The Chiefs can do it, Mahomes can
do it. I gotta.

Speaker 1 (57:10):
I want to check the temperature too, because the site
that I list, I think they have a flaw where
they always put like, uh, the one pm temperature no
matter what time the game is, bro, it's going.

Speaker 3 (57:24):
To be fuck because, like you said.

Speaker 1 (57:26):
With this knee injury, we're not playing in the comfy
confines of Sofi Stadium anymore for lad, right, We're playing
in Arrowhead at night in the cold Sunday night football.
So yeah, I think I think the Chiefs are are
a pretty good click in the contest here in terms
in terms of real betting, I would be terrified to
put the real American dollars on the Chiefs. And I've

(57:49):
said this, I've said this in Discord very many times
this last Cup, this last week, but at Ali Slash Discord,
Moose and Brett you might not want to hear this,
but I mean the Yiefs are negative net yards for
play right now. Like I hate to say it, Brett,

(58:09):
I think this is the year.

Speaker 3 (58:12):
I think this is going to be the Bill super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (58:20):
It's there.

Speaker 3 (58:21):
It's just it's just there. It's there to be taken. Right.
It's like a.

Speaker 1 (58:28):
Mini kind of rebuild here with the Chiefs, right they
need to figure some stuff out on the offensive line.
They weren't able to cobble together the defense as successfully
as they have due to injuries in the secondary this season.
Lose it and they lost lagarious team in the offseason
as well, So maybe that's like a multi season thing

(58:48):
to patch that up in the secondary. And then who
else is there this whole league?

Speaker 3 (58:54):
Right?

Speaker 1 (58:54):
So you got two front runners in the NFC in
the Lions and Eagles, who when they get into a
pause of game state can absolutely drive you into submission.
Right Like, there are very tough out for teams that
can't throw the ball and fight with them because if
they get ahead and they start running, They're just gonna

(59:15):
absolutely pulverize you. But in the AFC, like I don't know,
I have zero trust for Lamar and this is just
seems like a battered, broken chief Steak.

Speaker 3 (59:29):
It's right there, Brett.

Speaker 1 (59:30):
Are you allowing yourself to get like one percent optimistic?

Speaker 2 (59:34):
Yeah, of course, I mean this is I feel better
now than I have in the past couple of years.
Like the Ravens obviously worrying me, but if they're if
we're playing them in Buffalo, obviously less so. Uh.

Speaker 3 (59:48):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (59:49):
It's like I hear Bill's players saying that we need
to have home field, but even if that's the case,
like we haven't been able to beat Casey at home
in the playoffs. I mean, we just lost them in
the playoffs at home last year, so I need to
see it, I guess before but.

Speaker 3 (01:00:05):
That was excited about it.

Speaker 1 (01:00:07):
That was I think the sneakiest part about the Bills
this year is just how much better the weapons are
compared to last year. And it's not like they have
Jamar Chase, right, they don't have the guy who's going
to go out and make a huge play. But when
the Bills go out on third and you gotta have

(01:00:28):
it like who is the guy that Allan is targeting
that you don't trust? Right, Like it's in the scheme.

Speaker 2 (01:00:35):
It's not so much that the weapons are better. I
think there's less pressure to force feed a guy like
digs to where Alan is just like, whoever, whoever's there,
go through your progressions, whoever's there, just go or take
off and run. We're seeing more of that out of
him this year too, So yeah, are things are different Manchule,
Brady's doing it like that. I think that's the big
difference this year versus I mean, obviously he was there

(01:00:56):
during the playoff round last year, but like ever since
he took over from Dorsey, this off has been different.
So it's it's pretty exciting right now. And yeah, with
a lot of coming back to the defense, is U
is on its way back as well? I don't know,
I am getting exciting and you're excited. He're just talking
about it, But I'm trying to say I am trying
to stay cautiously optimistic as well.

Speaker 1 (01:01:14):
The Bills make me wanna it's so funny. I'll say
this point, then we'll get out of here. This has
been a shit show to record. There's been so my
tech relashes. I appreciate you guys hanging around, but it's funny.
In the Jets discord, I feel like there's not as
much hate for the Bills as I think there would be.

(01:01:37):
There's some guys that just absolutely hate Josh Allen because
one he's great and two he can get a little
eccentric when it comes to selling some of these personal fouls.
But I mean, if you need to do it to
get the call, I can't really regards the guy. But
there's certain there's just not the same level of hate
as there was for the Patriots, and I think there's

(01:01:59):
still even more hate for the Dolphins.

Speaker 3 (01:02:01):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:02:01):
I just think we have more institutional hatred towards Miami
then we do Buffalo, because I mean, you guys like
us haven't had, uh, you know, the same amount of
success at at the Pinnacle. So root for your DPM
room for your dad. I mean, how hype is he?
Can he get to more than one percent optimistic?

Speaker 3 (01:02:21):
No, he's exactly like fucking Brett, exactly like Brett. I
mean he just can't. He can't. I mean, they've seen
it before, right.

Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
They've seen it four times before.

Speaker 3 (01:02:37):
Actually, yeah, exactly, so, I mean I don't know, just go,
come on, I'm rooting for it. Just I just want.
I just I don't even care. I just want Lions bills.
That's all I care about personally. I just want you.

Speaker 1 (01:02:52):
Just want Max, Max euphoria, Max Pain. That's yeah, You're.

Speaker 3 (01:02:56):
Gonna win an either way. I mean, could you imagine
either Detroit or Buffalo winning a Super Bowl? I mean,
come on, oh.

Speaker 1 (01:03:04):
My god, I literally can't a while.

Speaker 3 (01:03:08):
I mean, the hell with the Eagles, the Ravens. Obviously
the Chiefs have won infinel. Who cares about any of
these other teams? No, Like, this is what we need.

Speaker 1 (01:03:17):
The selfish part of me, I'm always going to root
for Mahomes until all of Brady's relevance is dead and buried.
But unfortunately it never will be. It's going to be
Lebron Jordan, right Like the people that grew up with
Brady with Jordan are just always going to say, oh,
it's a different era, passing the ball dirp to dirt.
But I just if Mahomes wins this year and gets

(01:03:43):
to four in a time period where it took Brady,
I think thirteen years to get to four and Mahomes
gets to do it in seven or eight seven, it
would be seven years.

Speaker 3 (01:03:56):
I hate this argument. I hate this argument. I hate it.
I hate yeah. I know it's okay. You're gonna say
it's over, and I'm gonna say yeah. And Brady was
also always there, Like we knock guys for losing super Bowls,
yet you get into a super Bowl, Like if you're
literally making the Super Bowl basically every single year, that's
pretty efanimating.

Speaker 1 (01:04:17):
But it wasn't until their like second run right from
like four to uh two thousand and they had the
undefeated season, right, but then there was that lull towards
the Giant Super Bowl where they were just okay and

(01:04:38):
they were losing too, like my Jets in the playoffs,
where like, there's no scenario right now that Patrick Mahomes
would ever lose a home playoff game to a Mark
Sanchez led type football team. It's just not in the
realm of possibilities. But that would come on, you don't

(01:04:59):
know that, I mean, this guy's lost.

Speaker 3 (01:05:03):
They said the same thing about Brady until it happened,
Like what I mean, what do you mean? Like we've
seen the Chiefs receivers drop infinite passes. Okay, it can happen.

Speaker 1 (01:05:15):
I know, I know. Just yeah, I'm excited. The playoffs
are right around the corner, and I think it is
going to be an electric tournament. I'm I'm really rooting
for one of these NFC teams to upturn the Apple
cart against the Eagles Allions and yeah, I just give

(01:05:35):
me the Chiefs and Bills for all the marbles. That's
all I want and that's the pot. Appreciate you guys
at Brett Holson on Twitter, cobl C double L s
O n at Donny underscore Peters go give mo follow
as well at motor and U double.

Speaker 3 (01:05:53):
W R a H.

Speaker 1 (01:05:54):
Send him all the fire for his free role. I'm
at rich t Ryan, best of luck in your betting ventures.
Absolutely for the first time all season. Need five eight