2024 Week 18 Card: Who is Playing for What?

The Collective try to read the tea leaves and determine who is playing for what in Week 18.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
And welcome back to.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great Iron Cambell, the only podcast that puts its money
where its mouth is. I'm your host, rich Ron and
I'm joined by the insire collective, the Disciple, Brett Colson,
Donnie D. P. Peters, and the Resident Moose himself mo
and Nowara. Hope you had a happy holidays and a

(00:34):
safe New Year. If you are watching this on YouTube,
please like the video and subscribe to the channel Listeners,
rate and review on your podcatcher of choice five stars only.
Like a man who has not hit the league yet
but was absolutely dazzling in my backyard up in Pasadena
this weekend, Jeremiah Smith. I was trying to explain to

(00:57):
the group chat this morning how special of a prospect
Jeremiah Smith is as a true freshman. You have to
look at the last Heisman winning Rode receiver DeVonta Smith.
He had I believe it was seven catches his freshman's
even at WRU at the Ohio State Marvin Harrison junior
as a freshman had eleven catches this year. Jeremiah Smith,

(01:21):
true freshman dude who showed up. I don't think he
was a true seventeen like Ryan Williams. But had just
turned eighteen down from South Florida. Seventy catches, twelve hundred yards,
fourteen touchdowns. This guy, this guy would be the one
point one in this draft if he was eligible, But

(01:42):
somehow he has to return to unprofession football for two
more seasons.

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Cannot wait.

Speaker 3 (01:47):
You were not at the grocery store when that happen.

Speaker 2 (01:51):
Grocery gamble for those in the discord bit that l
slabs discord moves at the exact same time, Mo and
I were disgusted at how disgusting that I don't even
know who the two teams were as ASU, and it.

Speaker 3 (02:04):
Was, yeah, it was. We just read game winning drives
and there was multiple false starts, a twenty yard punt.
I mean it was hideous. Football said we were going
to the grocery.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
Sark had the ball out of the two minute warning
on the opposing side of the field, the perfect math
ball scenario to set up a game winning field goal
with a few clicks remaining, or you know, maybe one
possession of time, but like one down in distance of time,
forty seconds remaining four Arizona State. My guy comes out

(02:40):
past past past, allows Arizona State to keep all of
their timeouts and sets up a long field goal, which
is of course myssed goes into overtime and Mo and
I were disgusted. So at the exact same time, in
two different places, we went to the grocery store and
we were getting roasted at grocery gamble in the discord profession.

Speaker 3 (03:02):
Guys, they were just at it with us.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah, they were absolutely discussing. If that was a long preamble,
it's because it's week eighteen in the National Football League
and we've got no idea outside of a handful of games,
what the hell the motivations are for these teams this week.
You've even got playoff teams playing for seating, where some

(03:26):
have just flat out said they're not trying, the Rams
being one of them, Jimmy Garoppolos starting a quarterback for
Los Angeles, where you have other ones like the Commanders
and Dan Quinn at the podium yesterday saying seating is
important where it seems like they will be playing their starter.
So we are just doing some parsing over here, trying
to read the tea leaves. So we're gonna do a

(03:48):
similar format as we did last week. Give you our
card and then discuss perhaps some fringe games, consensus picks
that didn't make the card. If you're out there doing
some real money betting, if you have any hedges, not hedges,
but if you have any things in your mind that
you think you can get down now that will be

(04:09):
positive in terms of closing value. This is the week
to just bet early and hope that you're right, and
hope that you have closing value come Saturday or Sunday.
You could be way wrong, that you could be multiple
points off, but this is kind of the week where
things are gonna move violently tomorrow when final injury reports

(04:30):
are out and chefty sweet starts going out as to
who's gonna play this weekend, and you're either gonna be
left holding the bag or you're gonna have some closing
value in your pocket waiting for Sunday. You're just gonna
get super razor sharp lines and it's gonna be coin
flip territory for everything. So might as well take a gamble. Now,

(04:52):
let's get into one game where I Okay, so we
know one team, the San Francisco forty nine ers. We
know that they're just everybody's dea. Okay, the entire team
is dmped. Brock Party will not play. Is it going
to be the Pastronaut? Is it going to be Brandon Allen?
Last time they wheeled out Brandon Allen in the leverage spot,

(05:12):
and the Pastronaut just shows up last week and looks
like a functioning quarterback. They go to Arizona to take
on the Cardinals. The Cardinals are minus four and a
half and Mo is laying it going back to the
well with Kyler Murray.

Speaker 3 (05:30):
Yeah, that was a horrific line. As I predicted last week,
the Cardinals should have won the game, but yeah, this week,
I just so initially I thought this was a fair line.
I actually had this as right around my initial fare
when I did my numbers early in the week, so
I actually haven't bet this one. But then I saw
this forty nine Ers injury report. This has to be

(05:52):
the number one CanCon team, right, I mean, you just
look at this team like I know that people are always, oh,
these guys aren't trying these guys over and I think
for the most part, that's like way overblown this team.
This is a team that's been competing for the Super
Bowl every year and they're in a dead game. They
don't need to develop their players. They don't need, you know, anything, really,

(06:14):
the coaches aren't coaching for their jobs. This is just
like everyone's already checked into twenty twenty five, and you
can see it on this injury report. They've already shutting
down people Dre Greenlaw and Trent Williams immediately once the
season was over. They put those guys on ice and
then guys. I didn't actually look at the depth chart,

(06:34):
but my rough count was, I think eight starters are
double DNP to start the week. I think this could
be all backups for the Niners, and they're they're just
putting in a vanilla game plan, packing it in and
heading to next year. So and the Cardinals are They're
still trying to work everyone up until you know, develop

(06:55):
their players, get reps for these guys, and I think
they care about this game more than the forty nine ers.
So I actually think this game should be like, way
way higher if this is going to be just all
backups for the Niners. I did not know this many
guys were going to be out for the Niners when
I made my initial numbers, So I think, yeah, the
Cardinals should probably be like minus seven or higher here

(07:17):
with this injury report.

Speaker 2 (07:19):
You also have the Niners coming off that primetime game
where they were competitive with this this scrappy Lions team
that everybody loves, and then it kind of all just
falls apart in the second half with the brock Purty turnovers.
So it's like you kind of gave this massive effort
for this one last time. Nick Bosa got dinged in
the game and went back in and was being a warrior,

(07:39):
and then yeah, you just have this game in Glendale,
Arizona's in the season, like sleepy against.

Speaker 3 (07:46):
Team with nothing to play for, like you're not playing spoiler.
The other team is not going anywhere.

Speaker 2 (07:52):
Yeah, no, exactly, Brett, I gotta go to you. You
are the Shanahan whisperer. You did put an X next
to the Niner. Do you have any trepidation get him
over there?

Speaker 1 (08:03):
It looks like, er, I haven't.

Speaker 4 (08:05):
I don't know what to do with this team anymore.
I have no idea what to do it. Like I thought,
I really, I thought they were just gonna win that
game last week and then the Lions to the Lions thing,
and it's just it's so tilting with the Lions team.
I don't know, but yeah, I think I agree with that.
I think the Niners are cooked. And there it is
a thing, you know, teams that have all these high
expectations going into the season, and it's like, what motivation

(08:30):
do you have going into the final week.

Speaker 2 (08:32):
We'll keep with you, Brett, because you're the other member
of the collective without a consensus for your top pick.
It is like every game this week a divisional tilt
between the Chargers and the Raiders. You were taking the
four points at home with Las Vegas.

Speaker 3 (08:49):
Knew it, I knew it.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
I don't under I don't know what's happening in this game,
so please tell me.

Speaker 4 (08:55):
So this is this is a parlay with the Bengals
and the Steelers. I really like the Steelers and that game,
and maybe we'll get to that one later in the show.
But if the Steelers do win on Saturday, the Chargers
have nothing to play for. They clinched the sixth seed,
they hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos, and if that's
the case, the Chargers are likely to sit their stars here.
Right But even if the Steelers lose, how much do

(09:16):
the Chargers care about getting the five seed? Like, is
it enough? To risk the health of a Herbert or
a Bosa or a mac. They've got some veterans who
could really use the rest here. And like, I get it,
it's the Texans instead of the Ravens in round one,
But how much does that matter? You still have to
win four games? Like, does Harbaugh really want to fade
his brother in round one? I don't know how to

(09:37):
cap for that, but I have a hard time believing
that the Chargers care that much about moving up one
spot in the standings when you could just rest Herbert
and all these guys ahead of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Raiders,
they already blew their shot at the number one pick.
I think at this point, Pierce is just trying to
put some wins together to either keep his job or
help him land another job if he's fired. Raiders have

(09:59):
a lot of young guys playing for pride, playing for
a contract and a job. In this league, these situations
always get overblown in Week eighteen. Ye, this team is quid,
but Week eighteen really is a wake up call for
a lot of teams. This is their last chance to
put together some good film, and I think the Raiders
do show up this week and catch the Chargers in

(10:20):
kind of a weird spot.

Speaker 2 (10:21):
Especially with really bad teams, like we just talked about
the Cardinals, we're talking about the Raiders. Now, the guys
on these rosters, this might be the last time they
get to play pro football, so they need to lay
down some good tape if they want to stay in
the league. From a rest perspective, I just I don't
know what Harbaugh's gonna do because he seems like he
could be a knee biting idiot like Dan Campbell last week,

(10:45):
absolute maniac playing everybody for a full sixty minutes, Jared
Goff blocking people in their face mask with his throwing
hand lunacy.

Speaker 1 (10:55):
So I just I just don't trust him.

Speaker 3 (10:57):
This is one that just to get on my soap
real quick and let people know, like Brett said, if
you didn't understand basically what Brett was saying, there is
a correlated moneyline parlay here that I put into my account.
It should be around plus five hundred. Go check and
see if your book will let you do it. If
you even think the Steelers are just a neutral y

(11:17):
V bet, you can parlay them with the Raiders and
it's automatically plus ev because honestly, guys, the Raiders are
gonna close favored. If the Steelers win this game, I
think I think they're gonna be like minus two and
a half because Easton Stick is probably one of the
worst backups in the league. So at that point, wouldn't
Aidan O'Connell and these guys be favored at home? I

(11:38):
think yes. So this is just a little fun one
that I put a little bit of money on in
my account. I did have one out that let me
parlay these. Some books will not let you do it
because they are correlated. If the Steelers win, then the
Raiders is a plus ev bet.

Speaker 2 (11:55):
And keeping with Steelers Bengals, which is a consensus pick
that is dp's top pick, he is taking the plus
two with Tomlin against this Bengals team that I last
week was one of the more tilting experiences from both
a football watching and a holding Broncos plus three in

(12:18):
this contest plus three and a half in real life.
I was down in the Great Sunshine State of Florida
placing real money wagers had three and a half. Somehow,
we don't cover the three and a half because the
Bengals score a touchdown at the end and don't just
win by three, giving us a push in the contest,
and then they just go out and score a touchdown

(12:40):
in overtime because Sean Payton just doesn't play for the
tie on multiple occasions.

Speaker 1 (12:44):
But we're going back to the well deep in.

Speaker 3 (12:46):
Their second possession when they only needed a field goal. Yeah,
but their kicker had already missed.

Speaker 1 (12:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (12:52):
Yeah, going back to the well anti Bengals lead us
off DP.

Speaker 5 (12:57):
There's a few different ways to attack this. You have
a Steelers team that can play for or is playing
for seating, right, or could play for seeding, and at
the same time plays spoiler to their enemy, the Bengals,
who have everything to play for and need some help. Right,
We're not high on the Bengals, I mean we're we're

(13:19):
luke warm. I guess you would say because of the offense, right,
passing offense, passing offense, passing offense.

Speaker 6 (13:23):
They can move the rock.

Speaker 5 (13:24):
Yes, their defense is still atrocious, Okay, I don't know.
Mike Tomlin to me is like Dan Campbell light in
the sense that, like, I don't think he's just gonna
rest guys, Like that's not his type of mentality.

Speaker 6 (13:37):
Like I think he's gonna.

Speaker 5 (13:38):
Wanna play and play well and have momentum and that
whole thing like that that Tomlin aura going into the playoffs.
He's not just gonna rest guys to rest guys. I mean,
this just seems like a really good spot, a really
good spot to not only take the points, but just
bet the money line with the Steelers here and the
Cincinnati season send them home. The Bengals have beaten just

(14:00):
bad teams, I feel like, and they get in these
like these weird like close game slash shootouts with these
bad teams. I mean last week was that was such
a dumb win by that stupid fn Bengals team. I
mean it was just ridiculous. Okay, so I don't know,
you have to sell all the Bengal stock right now,
just sell it all.

Speaker 2 (14:18):
Like Britt said last week, that was the first victory
against a starting quarterback all season by Cincinnati, and it
came with absolute lunacy necessary to get the dub MO.
You're talking about your parlay, but you're actually the lowest
on the Steelers.

Speaker 3 (14:35):
Yeah, because I did have this as as a neutral game.
So I just basically put the parlay in because I
think it's a fun sweat, and I think it's gonna
be plus ev interesting that Raiders line had already came
down unfortunately, so like somebody is onto this. Somebody got
onto this early. I think it was six early in
the week, so it's already coming down. And then this one.

(15:00):
My concern here is that Tomlin does have a record
of resting guys. They did rest guys last year. My
concern here is that Baltimore is playing first and their
minus twenty basically, so there will be every reason in
the world for the Steelers to rest guys. That being said,
I do think if they try hard, if they do

(15:21):
try to win this game, then I think plus two
is a bit too much. I do think the Bengals
might be slightly better than the Steelers. It's probably close,
but I don't know how you can get to plus
two at home here with the Steelers. I mean, Russell
Wilson threw for four hundred and fourteen yards the last
time these teams played, and I think there's signaling that.

(15:44):
I mean, we know how bad this Bengals defense is.
They've been playing a bit better lately, but I think
that's basically because they've been playing subpar NFL quarterbacks like
dtr and Will Levis slash Mason Rudolph Will rooin Off.
I don't know whatever we want to call that conglomerate
of bad Titans quarterbacking, but I do think the Steelers

(16:07):
are the right side. But I'm like not excited about
it because this is one where I don't know what's
going to happen. I could see the Steelers trying, and
I could see them resting, guys, So I'll.

Speaker 5 (16:17):
Tell you what's gonna happen in the dark here. Tomlin
is going to tell his team you cannot enter the
playoffs on a four game losing streak. I'm sorry, that
is like a Tomlin thing that that I could see.

Speaker 3 (16:29):
That's fair enough.

Speaker 2 (16:30):
You gotta put your aviators on first before you. I
will finish us off with picks from members of the
collective with another consensus pick.

Speaker 1 (16:42):
It's tied.

Speaker 2 (16:43):
They're a three way tie for the collective pick, with
one barely sneaking in based on aggregate ranking. And I
am personally I don't think I've picked them actually, but
as collective, we were going back to the well with
the Carolina Panthers, who traveled to Atlanta to take on

(17:05):
Ah the Atlanta Falcons. This is a classic final week
of the season spot where one team absolutely needs it,
must win, have to get into the playoffs. Everyone thinks
they're going to win against a completely dead team in
the Panthers, who, to be fair, the last couple of

(17:26):
weeks have started to look like the September October Panthers
once again getting absolutely pasted last week negative three net
yards for play against the Dampa Bay Buccaneers. That wasn't
as alarming because the Bucks are a very well coached team.
Baker's playing out of his mind, Liam Cohen is dialing

(17:48):
it up. What was concerning was two weeks ago, three
weeks ago against the Cowboys when Cooper Rush absolutely decimated them.
That was the one where my ears kind of perked up,
where it's like Panthers might be dead, but Michael Pennocks
Junior has not looked like a good quarterback yet. That

(18:09):
was a pretty dreadful performance against the Commanders on Sunday
Night Football, save for the last drive where he needed
to convert a fourth and eleven and a fourth and
goal from the thirteen yard line. Made the throws very impressive,
but on the whole, from a down to down basis

(18:30):
Pennix was just not playing very well in that contest,
so putting a minus eight next to him seems a
bit rich. And this is still a Falcons defense that
has looked extremely spotty for the entire season against a
Panther's offense that's my dog is in favor of the dog,

(18:51):
a Panther's offense that's been able to work some kinks out.
Feelin has found the fountain of youth, and Bryce Love,
Bryce Love, Bryce Hung is playing much much.

Speaker 3 (19:03):
Remember Bryce Love?

Speaker 2 (19:05):
Yeah, wow, that's a throwback name. This made every single
top five except for Brett Brett, this was closer to
the middle. What are your fears? I go back, I'm
looking for trepidations once again for Brett on the Carolina Panthers.

Speaker 4 (19:20):
My fears are exactly what you mentioned, is that that
the Panthers look like the early season Panthers. Again, I
just yeah, like Pandis has not looked great, but this
is a this is a spot where he could just
he doesn't have to do a whole lot to shred
this defense. And again, like there's nothing to play for here.
The Falcons are playing for their season, So I think
that's that's where My concern is I do think the

(19:42):
Panthers are the right side though.

Speaker 2 (19:43):
Is there a wardable this is better coach, better quarterback,
because I mean what Raheem did. Yeah, speaking of clock management,
we're really outrageous, outrageous that guy was that alone.

Speaker 5 (19:59):
How can you have any faith in him getting his
team like ready prepared like all this sort of crap.
Players are generally tighter when they have to, like they
have more higher pressure situations, like, I mean, come.

Speaker 2 (20:10):
On, especially with a rookie quarterback making his first road start,
Like you have to have full control of the reins
in that situation to give your guy the best shot
at winning.

Speaker 1 (20:21):
And I think Raheem just.

Speaker 2 (20:23):
Stood there literally did not think he was just an
observer of the contest instead of using his power to
call timeout.

Speaker 5 (20:31):
And this feels like Raheem gets up and plays to
like hold off the other team when you need to
play to like bury the other team, especially if you're
going to cover eight.

Speaker 1 (20:41):
Yeah, this could be. Is it Riley Patterson? The guy?
Is this Riley Patterson.

Speaker 2 (20:45):
Who who couldn't reach on a fifty?

Speaker 1 (20:51):
Tell us he was on the Jets one, Yes, legend
Riley Patterson. Oh my goodness.

Speaker 2 (20:57):
All right, let's get the collective pick another consensus pick.

Speaker 1 (21:02):
Of course, the.

Speaker 6 (21:15):
Collective chooses the.

Speaker 2 (21:18):
Los Angeles Rams. The aforementioned Los Angeles Rams Jimmy g
Under center for the Rams, who were plus six and
a half at home playing against a dead Seahawks team.
Now there's a lot of yeah, Donnie's making a face

(21:40):
over there for the folks watching on YouTube. The Seahawks
do have some incentive in this game because their guy,
Gino Smith, makes a cool two million dollars if the
Seahawks win this football game. Gino Smith, a guy who
didn't write back, who the Seahawks have rallied behind over

(22:03):
the past two seasons, bought Just because they get their
guy Gino the check doesn't mean they're going to cover
six and a half on the road in this contest.
You are the lowest on this game, DP. You are
the only person that did not have this in your
top five. So let's start with you. What are your

(22:23):
worries here about Eugene Cyril Smith the third?

Speaker 5 (22:28):
I don't know what's gonna happen. I mean, how am
I supposed to know? Mcveigh's out here saying he's gonna
bench all these players. He's starting Jimmy Garoppolo, Like, I mean, yes,
the Seahawks have nothing to play for, but Gino has
everything to play for. And it's more than just two
million dollars rich. I think it's up to six million
total that he could get. Also one hundred and eighty
six passing yards and like some other incentives with his

(22:51):
passing specifically, So is Gino going to force it too much?
I have like, how am I supposed to have any
idea what's going to happen? I was looking at all
this stuff last night and like, what could happen, all
the different playoffs scenarios, who needs to win, who needs
to lose, who needs help? And then I'll also combine
that with all the player incentives, and this is giving
myself a damn popsicle headach the whole freaking time. I mean,

(23:12):
I have no idea, but like the other side of
me is like, well, yeah, okay. McVeigh came out and
said they're starting Jimmy Garoppolo. Isn't he kind of playing
for contracts in future contracts?

Speaker 1 (23:22):
Yes?

Speaker 6 (23:23):
I mean right, so why wouldn't he try?

Speaker 2 (23:26):
I mean, come on, and we've seen how many times
do we have to Anthony richardson, Okay, you need to
find a way to get to the Los Angeles ramps.
Any quarterback out there that is struggling, find a way
to get mcveigh's number and become the backup in Los
Angeles because your revival can start now. This game means

(23:50):
so much to Jimmy g and we the rams are
sharp right in term from from Monday to Saturday.

Speaker 3 (23:58):
Right.

Speaker 2 (23:59):
McVeigh gets it, and we know he'll be resting a
lot of players in this game because he understands that
seeding does not matter. The NFC is just a gauntlet,
right Like, no matter what path you take. We're talking
about this in the discord over the weekend. There is
no path in the NFC other than having the one
seed that is like an enjoyable trip to the super Bowl.

(24:21):
It is going to be a struggle no matter what.
So having a bye, resting your players has way more
value than anything. So we were pretty confident that this
is going to be some sort of rams B squad.
That being said, the guys that are playing division rival
at home six and a half points, like the defense

(24:44):
on Seattle definitely isn't going to be like they can't
do anything to help Geno, right. I mean, I guess
they could try to get this win over the line,
but this is a Seahawks defense that post By kind
of spiked but has definitely come back to earth over
the last couple of weeks. And even if the Seahawks
offense is super motivator and it goes out there, it's
the same squad that just scored six points. That's the

(25:06):
card thus far. But there are there is one, one, two,
two consensus games that did not make the card. Let's
start in Moe's backyard where they did it again the
Kansas City Chiefs because Mahomes is not playing the ultimate
disrespect of Andy Reid getting ten and a half points

(25:30):
against the Denver Broncos. Carson Wentz, speaking of Los Angeles
Rams Revival Projects, had a cup of coffee with them
last year. Now the backup two Mahomes will be starting
for your chefs.

Speaker 1 (25:43):
I think we all capped.

Speaker 2 (25:44):
This the same in that we love the Chiefs, but
I think the Chiefs are actually gonna be popped for
the first time all season in this contest.

Speaker 1 (25:51):
I think the Chiefs are actually going to be popular.

Speaker 3 (25:54):
I could see that, but I don't know. I think
people way overly buy into this, like, Oh, this team
needs to win, team doesn't. This team's resting that team isn't.
I mean, I think that's the cap goes that deep
for a lot of people. Yeah. For me, guys, this
is the first that I put into my account this week.
This was what I was nearly certain was gonna be

(26:15):
my number one pick. I probably would have laid minus
one thousand on it until I saw the forty nine
ers injury report. I mean, like you said, Rich, this
is a flat out disrespectful number. And I just don't
think people are properly putting like this is still the
Chief's coaching staffy, It's not like they have another game

(26:38):
to prepare for. The Chiefs have a bye, They're not
going The staff is still working hard because this is
such a together organization, They're gonna go out there and
try to put these players in the best position to shine,
even if they don't think they're coming back on the
Chiefs next year. These guys all care about each other.
They are gonna try to make these guys look good.

(26:58):
And guys, nobody has seen more Chief snaps of non
Patrick Mahomes than me and let me tell you, Andy
Reid has made way worse quarterbacks than Carson Wentz look
halfway decent. Okay, he's got Chad Henny marching down the
field for touchdowns in playoff games. He's got Matt Moore

(27:21):
beating decent teams in the regular season. I mean, it
does not matter who is taking the snaps for the Chiefs,
they're gonna look decent. Like obviously, Patrick Mahomes matters, but
he doesn't matter as much as people think he does.
As crazy as that is to say, even though I
think he's by far the best quarterback ever this Andy

(27:42):
Reid is still the best offensive mind of the last
twenty plus years at least, like he is gonna cook
up something where Carson Wentz looks halfway decent. And I
think the total is forty forty and a half. That's
really low to me.

Speaker 2 (27:58):
It's just like a traditional cap spot as well, total
of forty and a half ten and a half point
dog divisional game. Like even if you remove the aspect
of Mahomes and Kelsey now playing. The other thing that
interests me is like I think Hollywood should get some
burn in this game because he's still playing into football shape,
So it's not like the Chiefs are gonna be throwing

(28:21):
the absolute nobody's I wouldn't think so.

Speaker 1 (28:26):
Yeah, and this is just a Denver team that we know.

Speaker 3 (28:28):
That's what concerns me in the Rams game, to be
honest with you, is like, how much did these receivers
prop up. I don't think Matt Stafford has played very
good this year, So if those guys are out and
their backups are so bad, that is, honestly my only
concern in that Rams games.

Speaker 2 (28:45):
Those receivers something Whittington, the new pooka, who is the
lowest on the Chiefs spread.

Speaker 3 (28:56):
But yeah, like the Chiefs have like Justin Watson and
like professestionals that are going to be you know, Juju
Smith's shoes. Like these guys are okay, they're gonna go out.
They're better than two two at well.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
Driving along the four oh five taking his drink caught
a straight.

Speaker 2 (29:13):
Jesus, Lord Brett, you are the lowest on the Kansas
City chefs.

Speaker 4 (29:18):
The only reason this isn't in my top five is
because I do think there will be more picks on
the Chiefs in the contest. It's an interesting game. If
I didn't hate the alternatives so much. I would love
to see the Chiefs stomp this fraudulent Broncos team and
knock them out of the playoffs. But I hate the Bengals,
I hate the Dolphins. I don't want either of those
teams in so I kind of hope the Broncos just

(29:39):
win this game so they have to come here to
Buffalo next week. That's why I want to see you
next week. I want to play the Broncos in the
first round of the playoffs. So that said, I would
not be shocked if they they just lost to Casey
this week.

Speaker 2 (29:54):
I want Snoopuntley to start and win this week or
the Dolphins for a lot of reasons. One that my
New York Jets retain or even improve upon their draft position,
and because I want Snoop Huntley to be competitive in
a playoff game with two a hurt, because I think

(30:16):
that would just be hilarious for all the two and
non people out there that think that he is.

Speaker 1 (30:24):
The next big thing.

Speaker 2 (30:26):
Okay, there's one other consensus game that did not make
the card. I feel like it's a similar cap because
it is going to be popular. Because the Detroit Lions
play hosts to the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are minus
two and a half, and we all are lining up
to take KOC savior Sam and the Minnesota Vikings. I

(30:52):
am completely KOs pilled. I've said this multiple times on
the pod. I think the Vikings is gonna win this game,
and I think the Vikings are going to go to
the super Bowl. I think that is the world that
we live in. As the calendar turns that Sam Donald
will be the quarterback of a team going to the
Super Bowl. Who would they be afraid of at home?

(31:16):
I guess the Eagles, I guess. But if this Minnesota
offense gets going and you have the Eagles in a
neutral script or god forbid, a negative script against a
Brian Flores schemed up defense, that's kind of a delicious
spot to be and if you're in Minnesota. But sticking
to this game, Mo, we were talking about this in

(31:39):
the discord. This Lion's team giving up heaps of yards
on every single play, and save for two boneheaded passes
for Brock Party, the Niners should have scored on every
single I mean, Ricky Piersoll was thirty yards wide open

(32:00):
multiple times in this game. What is justin Jefferson going
to do to this Lion's defense.

Speaker 3 (32:07):
Yeah, there's a huge mismatch on the outside here. Obviously.
I don't understand how Detroit can be power rated as
a better team than Minnesota at this point. And I
hate to say that because I feel like I'm holding
the bag over here. I mean, I'm not holding the
bag in the sense that I have plus one thirty

(32:29):
on a minus favorite right now with my line's division bet,
but I feel like I am holding the bag because
I think the Vikings are gonna win as well, and
I think they're a better team than Detroit as currently constructed.
I mean, yeah, I do super believe that Detroit was
the best team in this division, but that was at

(32:51):
the beginning of the year and a lot has happened
since then. The Vikings are very good. I bet the
Vikings last time these two teams played because I thought
it was ridiculous that they were home underdogs. Maybe they
should have won, maybe not. That ended up being basically
a coin flip. But now the how on how decimated
this line's defenses, I don't know, but I will say

(33:14):
the bet to make in this game, at least when
it was was there the total got up to fifty seven.
That's outrageous. I mean I took under and it's down
to like fifty six juiced under. Now, I think I'd
still take the under.

Speaker 2 (33:27):
Man.

Speaker 3 (33:28):
I hit sixty points. Man, I mean these defenses, yeah,
are they bad against good offenses? Yeah, but these aren't
like this isn't the Bengals where the other team just
automatically scores thirty when they step on the field. Like,
these teams have gotten stops at times. I mean, I
think there will be a few stops in this. And
they both both love to run the ball, so I

(33:48):
think when when both teams are getting chunks running the ball,
I think they're going to keep the clock turning here
as well. So I don't understand why the total was
fifty seven, but I hit the under. But yeah, I
think unfortunately for my future, I think the Vikings are
the side here.

Speaker 2 (34:05):
I don't know, man, I don't think i'd be comfortable
holding an underticket in a game where I mean, Ben
Johnson is whipping out hook and laterals in games that
don't matter, like what is this tude gonna roll out
on Sunday in a win?

Speaker 1 (34:19):
And I mean the leverage speaking.

Speaker 2 (34:22):
To the leverage King here, Brett, this game is insane
in that it is one seed or wild card. The
percentages of winning the super Bowl reaching the super Bowl
just based on the outcome of this game are outrageous, Brett.

Speaker 4 (34:39):
Don't these two teams kind of both gonna buy though?
Like you have to go to Tampa. I mean both
these teams are significantly better than Tampa.

Speaker 3 (34:49):
I mean they're still only going to be like what
minus five and a half or something, I know, and.

Speaker 2 (34:55):
You have to go to Philadelphia. The catch of that
most likely like instead of staying at home.

Speaker 1 (35:02):
You know, this is a This is a brutal for
these two teams.

Speaker 4 (35:07):
Don't they play each other?

Speaker 2 (35:09):
Oh no, sorry, yeah, you're correct because they're the Yeah, oh,
they wouldn't do the three to.

Speaker 1 (35:15):
Two on that side. Yeah, it's just.

Speaker 2 (35:18):
Which is I mean, having home field in that in
that matchup is huge as well. DP, you're the lowest
on the vikings. You just think that everyone's gonna line
up to click Minnesota.

Speaker 5 (35:29):
Yeah, well, I mean no, I mean I think there's
probably gonna be three thousand entries on both sides.

Speaker 1 (35:34):
I mean, like, I mean this is.

Speaker 3 (35:36):
The all times, Like these are both top five.

Speaker 6 (35:40):
You know what this is.

Speaker 5 (35:41):
This is a super Bowl in week eighteen, and everyone
has an opinion and everyone's gonna put it on their
card like that's what this is. So I'm like, I don't, Okay,
what do I I like the Vikings? Yeah, I like
the Vikings for a few weeks. I've liked them all season,
and I think the Lions are starting to go the
other way. So I mean, I feel like the Vikings
are for sure the right side. But good god, I mean, how.

Speaker 6 (36:01):
Many people are going to be on this game? It's ridiculous.

Speaker 3 (36:04):
Well, if the other games mattered and people were excited
for them, it might be a little different. But nobody's
gonna want to bet on any of the games that
are not bet but you know, put any equity on
any of the games that don't matter, Like people are
gonna all gravitate to this one.

Speaker 2 (36:20):
Of course, one other game that I wanted to touch
upond that I'll open the floor if you guys are interested.
It's Giants Eagles. So we've already gotten worried that the
Eagles will not be playing Barkley, so makes you assume
that they're not going to rush back. Jalen hurts, which
leads me to think that I don't know what was

(36:42):
the guy's name, who's this?

Speaker 1 (36:44):
This Tanner?

Speaker 2 (36:47):
Like he's going to start right because can you pick
at his dust? So we've got Tanner McKee favorite pretty
sure that Yeah, like, shouldn't shouldn't we just be all
in on the Giants? Here a Giants team that you're
shaking your head over other Drew Locke breaking EPA records

(37:07):
the last week? I mean, can't the Giants winning coverage?

Speaker 6 (37:11):
Just starting to rich? That's the trap?

Speaker 1 (37:15):
Are people really going to line up to take Drew Locke?

Speaker 3 (37:18):
I mean, you're buying high, aren't you. Isn't this the
closest thing to buying high on the Giants?

Speaker 2 (37:24):
Okay, well, at least do me this favor total of
thirty seven and a half? Can we find a teaser
candidate to get the Giants up to eight and a
half like this?

Speaker 3 (37:35):
He's in these games where it's massive uncertainty.

Speaker 1 (37:38):
Yeah, this is true. There's such a wide range of outcomes.
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
I just think that Malik Neighbors is good enough to
win a football game, especially against backups like this guy
is that special?

Speaker 1 (37:51):
And Lock is going to get.

Speaker 4 (37:52):
Talking about Sirianni. We're not talking about We're talking about Sirianni.
We're talking We're not talking about Andy Reed or I'm
talking about Like it's Sirianni with these bets, Like I
don't trust that at all. And meanwhile, you got day
Ball playing for a contract, Drew Locke playing for a
contract possibly, Like I think the Giants are gonna come
out flying this week. So I love this spot for those.

Speaker 1 (38:12):
Yes, I'm all about this. I was.

Speaker 2 (38:15):
I initially had this as one of my top plays
and I just kept sliding it down. But I saw
Brett had it in his top five, and I'm starting
to gain more conviction on the spot.

Speaker 1 (38:25):
Yeah, I just I said this last week.

Speaker 2 (38:28):
And we had the Giants plus eight as outright winners
on the card, just like you said, Brett, Like this
matters to Dabll, right, I think Dabell wants to keep
that job. I think Dabell wants to I guess now
that they won a game, like they're not going to
be able to just take a quarterback, but at least
be involved in the process to get his quarterback, whether

(38:49):
that be somebody on the veteran market or some sort
of trade up within the draft to get somebody. So
I think Giants have all the motivation of the world
here to be competitive, to go out and play well.
And yeah, this is clown Sirianni with a bunch of
backups with Tanner.

Speaker 1 (39:05):
McKee is a favorite in pro football? What are we doing?

Speaker 3 (39:07):
Someone sharp agrees with you guys, because this was three
and a half early in the week, So someone has
been hammering the Giants.

Speaker 1 (39:15):
All right?

Speaker 2 (39:15):
Anything else any other games that you guys? One more
for me and then I know Mo. Mo's always champion
at the bit. To see where you guys were at
Commy's Cowboys. I said it at the top, dan Quinn said,
seeding matters. I tend to believe him. He seems like
somebody I haven't checked the coach speak index, but he
seems like somebody who's not really a bullshitter. This Cowboys

(39:36):
team is beyond one, two, three kancuns. The aforementioned something.
Tanner McKee was just chucking the ball around the yard
against them indoors.

Speaker 1 (39:48):
I don't know. I just think this line is like
multiple points short brow.

Speaker 3 (39:53):
This is the other game that I got in my
account early in the week was Commy's I got four
and a half. I think I did not understand this
S line. Guys, the Commis were minus ten at home
when Ceede Lamb was playing, so how are they south
of seven here? I mean, I understand they lost that game,

(40:14):
so like maybe that line was a little bit off.
I don't think the market was like six points off
or whatever. I mean, this is a crazy move considering
the best player, the best player by far on the
other team is out and it moves six points. I
am baffled by this and Washington, I don't understand why
they wouldn't play hard. You don't want to go to

(40:36):
Philly round one. And if you lose here and the
Packers win and their ten point favorites, you're going to
Philly round one. So I think they want to come
out and take care of business. Obviously, must win does
not mean must cover. But I don't know how Dallas
is getting stops in this game. So yeah, I like

(40:58):
Washington quite a bit. That that is in my account.

Speaker 1 (41:01):
For sure.

Speaker 3 (41:02):
It was in.

Speaker 2 (41:03):
Everybody's top five except for Brett. Brett actually clicked the
this is one of the random loan wolves that you had.

Speaker 1 (41:08):
Brett. What went into the coin going up Dallas.

Speaker 4 (41:11):
This is the Tree Lance coming out party. This is it.
It's just do I I don't. I don't know why
I clicked Dallas. This is just one where I was like,
I have no idea, I'm just clicking aside and end
up being Dallas. I don't know what to expect here.

Speaker 2 (41:27):
Okay, floors open, boys. We you're always You're always ready
about I love it.

Speaker 3 (41:33):
I just want to know we hit on all the
games I like for sure, but except for one that
I'm looking at that I might play. And I just
want to know what Brett thinks, because this seems like
the Brett Special of the week. I can't if he
doesn't have the Bears in his top five, I'm gonna
be surprised. You like them. Last time these teams played
another plus ten?

Speaker 4 (41:53):
What kind of different circumstances.

Speaker 2 (41:55):
No, are the Packers? Oh no, it's the Texans. The Texans.
The Texans are the team that we don't know what
motivations are. The Packers obviously need to win, right, but again,
this is the Classics.

Speaker 3 (42:05):
The Packers should be trying to win. Yeah, yeah, I
mean the Bears. You don't think the Bears are going
to give them a game. I thought Brett would be
all in here. I don't know.

Speaker 4 (42:13):
I thought this line was fair like. I'm still not
convinced that the Packers aren't the best team in the NFC.
I think I still think it's pretty close, and they've
got to chip on their shoulder now as the seventh seed.
I think this group believes they are just as good
as the Lions and the Eagles and the Vikings. So
I'm buying green Bay right now, both this week and
going into the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (42:32):
I hope you're right, buddy, have that green Bay future.
And that was not a heartening game that they played
against the Vikings.

Speaker 4 (42:39):
Yeah, I know what did what.

Speaker 2 (42:41):
Did Love have sixty passing yards at halftime?

Speaker 3 (42:45):
I mean mid third quarter?

Speaker 2 (42:47):
That this is just to go back real quick to
the Lions Vikings game and into the playoffs with the Vikings.
I think the scariest part about the Vikings is that
Flores now has tape on all of the team that
he's going to face from a defensive schematic standpoint, and
he has tape of them playing against his scheme so

(43:09):
that he can then layer on top of that, which
I think is terrifying from a scheme perspective, because Flora's
is a mad man, like the types of simulations and
pressures and rollovers that he that he trusts his defense
to make, like he is going to show you pictures
that you think you've seen before and then at the
snap rotate out of them. And I think that's going

(43:31):
to be a nightmare for teams that he's already played against,
where he can kind of scheme on top of scheme
and put these quarterbacks into a blender. And none of
these NFC quarterbacks are good like that are going to
make the playoffs. So I feel like if they get
put into a blender like I think, they're just prone
to make massive mistakes like we saw from Love last week.

(43:53):
Love really struggled in that game, but he will not
have the same resistance this way against the Bears. Schematically,
at least, I'll give the Bear some credit the fact
that they went out and held the Seahawks to six.
They do get extra rest, which does favor most side
of taking the ten points here, So that is a

(44:13):
bit of interest. Anything else, So we talk Browns Ravens
real quick. It's twenty in real life, it's eighteen in
the contest. I think this is wildly incorrect. I have
the Browns in my top five. If you look at
the scatterplot right, if you bottom left, DTR is just
pasted to the bottom left with some of the worst

(44:35):
quarterbacks that you've ever seen take a football field. Billy's
Uppy's kind of in like the bad He's in the
bad zone. He's in the Tommy DeVito zone, where DTR
is in like the Jake Hayner, Jake Luton guys that
should be working at Merrill Lynch like sector of the

(44:58):
vacpo A craft. So this are you sure?

Speaker 1 (45:01):
Yeah?

Speaker 6 (45:02):
Please?

Speaker 3 (45:02):
Ta just tweeted out that these are the bottom two
quarterbacks fifty nine and sixty past X number of years
and whatever EPA metric he had up there, So oh
he might be.

Speaker 2 (45:15):
I know he does some EPA adjustment, but I was
just looking at raw EPA. I looked at the scatterplot
and Zappie was just kind of like he was in
the bad quarterbacks, whereas DTI was like bottom left, like
you have to they had to like change the graft
to make sure that DTR fit on it.

Speaker 1 (45:29):
So how does this line move? I don't know how
this could move.

Speaker 3 (45:34):
DT moves if it was wrong initially, which I kind
of think it.

Speaker 2 (45:38):
Okay, So you had pro Ravens people on top of
the quarterback change. Yeah, this, I mean eighteen points, twenty points,
this is crazy.

Speaker 6 (45:51):
Twenty and a half.

Speaker 3 (45:52):
Now I'm seeing it's good. The Ravens run it up
on all these teams. Out of all these guys, the
Ravens are the Lions though, like they if they can
win by forty, they will. That's why I would not
want to be on Cleveland in this.

Speaker 4 (46:05):
How do you win by forty in these weather conditions?

Speaker 3 (46:07):
Though?

Speaker 4 (46:09):
Is Cleveland gonna throw the football? Are they just going
to run straight?

Speaker 1 (46:11):
Who are they going to run straight with?

Speaker 2 (46:13):
Though Ford is dead, Chubb is back to being dead,
Deonte's I think, I think Deontay's on I ar, I
think pe Are. I think Pierre Strong is on the
injured report, you're strong?

Speaker 3 (46:26):
It was d NP.

Speaker 4 (46:28):
They have no choice but to throw the football. Then yeah,
I'm taking Ravens.

Speaker 2 (46:35):
I think the most shocking thing I saw this week
was DP not taking the not having the Browns higher.

Speaker 3 (46:40):
I would have laid minus one thousand that Donnie had
Browns in his top five.

Speaker 6 (46:45):
I mean kind of clothes.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
Donnie had all all consensus picks, almost all consensus picks
in his top five. His top three were all consensus
picks aligned with the collector. All right, a wonky week eighteen.
I'm honestly, I've been in this mode for the last
two weeks. I can't I just get me to the playoffs,
and we sim to the playoffs, turn off injuries, get
to super well held card weekend, then we can dig

(47:13):
in and start capping. Some of these teams. Got some
season long sweats. Brian Thomas Junior. I mean, this is
a this is a crazy sweat for leading rookie receiving
Giants worst record.

Speaker 3 (47:27):
Okay, So the one thing I wanted to ask you,
because I have heard in some of these markets, brock
Bauers wasn't included. So is yours receiver or is yours
all rookies?

Speaker 2 (47:40):
It's all rookies, which makes the sweat even even sweatier
against him and neighbors, because yeah, some of them are
were receiver only markets and some were receiving ig markets.
So putting out both of those absolute dick punch last
last week from the Giants worst record plus one thousand

(48:02):
out the window, so.

Speaker 3 (48:05):
Real, Yeah, I mean to be fair on your one,
like you probably should have already lost with Neighbors, Like
you're only in there because Neighbors got hurt. Yeah, that
being said, it was still a great bet. Like obviously, yeah,
but Ebers probably deserves to be at the top. I mean,
this guy has been unbelievable. But yeah, obviously I'm rooting

(48:25):
for you though. For sure?

Speaker 4 (48:27):
Is Ohio State still a wide receiver? You when LSU
has the four best receivers in the NFL?

Speaker 1 (48:32):
I mean and neck? Yeah.

Speaker 3 (48:35):
Yeah. When I told my buddy last week because he
doesn't watch unprofession and he was like, where did Brian
Thomas go to school? And when I told him it
was LSU, I said he was on the same team
as Malik Neighbors and Jaden Daniels. I think I blew
his mind. He was like what And I was like, yeah,
they lost like four games. It was actually three. I

(48:56):
had to look it up. But and I just like,
can you imagine how bad they're defense was? Because it's
not like these guys were just like these college athletes
who never produced. These guys produced, like they produced the
same way they're producing now. So the fact that that
team wasn't like even in the playhof Like, this is craziness, man.

Speaker 1 (49:16):
Yeah, it's actually insane.

Speaker 2 (49:18):
How much of a margin Jamar Chase has on receiving
yards compared to isn't he like five hundred yards clear of.

Speaker 1 (49:25):
The nearest player? Oh my goodness? All right, Week eighteen.
Can't wait for the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (49:33):
Follow these guys on Twitter at Donny Underscore Peters, at
Brett Coulson C doublel Son, and at Monaora and U
doublewar Ah last chance this season they get five and
oh one time.

Speaker 1 (49:46):
Best of luck in your betting matress. Peace outs to