January 23, 2025 • 39 mins
Can Patrick Mahomes reach a third-straight Super Bowl? Can Josh Allen reach his first? Can Jayden Daniels become the first rookie to lead his team to the big game?
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
And welcome back to.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great Ier Cambel, the only podcast that puts its money
where its mouth is. I'm your host, Brich Ryan, and
I'm joined by the entire collective, the Disciple, Bret Holsen,
Donnie DP Peters, and the resident Moose himself mo Nowara.
If you're watching this on YouTube, please like the video
(00:33):
and subscribe to the channel. Listeners, rate and review in
your podcatcher of choice five stars only like Chiefs Legend
and a man who I hope is still afraid of horses,
Eric Berry. A lot of sunshine in the videos I'm
seeing right now, Brett. I've never seen you brighter. And
(00:54):
is it because perhaps maybe for the first time, you
could be traveling to Arrowhead to play in one of
these playoff games with the better football team.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Is that a thing that's happening.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
I don't think. So we'll talk about.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Why Moe's got his Kansas City red on, VP's rocking
the PGT something poker, and let's let's stick right into it.
There's only three games left. It's this the start of
the season where things are getting sad. Only a couple
of football games left. Donnie's no longer Patriots fans so
(01:36):
he doesn't have any allegiances. He's just sitting there watching.
But for me, this is the time of the year
where things start to get exciting, actually because Hope springs
eternal and the Jets are undefeated in the off season
new head coach Aaron Glenn. But for Mo it's the
last couple of years. This is this is when this
is business time. And for Brett always knock him on
(01:58):
the door. It's always a clenched butt season. But we'll
start in the other conference. We'll go in order of
the games, and we've got our Washington formerly Racial Slurs,
formerly football team, now Commanders traveling to Philadelphia to take
on the Eagles. The Eagles are six point favorites. I
(02:20):
believe this opened closer to four and was immediately bet up.
I saw as high as six and a half in
some places. Don't think it ever tested seven. But I'm
seeing six at a very influential offshore book.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
I'm seeing a.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Total of forty eight. And I'm seeing, once again from
the collective, a lot of support for our Commanders, who
we were all over last week. I'm not going to
be smerge Brett for his take about betting the Lions
and betting alts because that was the route to go.
Speaker 5 (02:54):
Well, they still had eight yards per play.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
In that game.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
But Brett didn't come on here and say that the
Lions are definitely gonna win this game by margin. You're
an idiot if you think otherwise. It was just a
take on what the range of outcomes was in this game,
and we said, if you think the other side, if
you think it's Washington, you should be on money line,
you should be on passing totals, rushing totals on the
(03:17):
other side. And there were some juicy parlays to be
had if you were pro Washington in that game.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Mo, the one that didn't come home.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Your best take on the pod Washington money line and
Lions over thirty one and a half an absolutely brutal
beat for you.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
That one goes into the Hall of Most out Fame.
I think that was one of my greatest touts ever.
If I basically needed Dan Campbell to be aggressive one
last time, man, I mean it was what like fourth
and five on the ten or something. You're down a million,
(03:55):
I just try to get a touchdown of all the
spots to kick.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
He picks that one. I just needed him to go there.
Speaker 5 (04:02):
And then Jared Goff obviously not to turn into a
pumpkin well last drive. Although I have heard some takes
that maybe none of this was his fault and he
was concussed the whole time because all of his bad
decisions happened after he got leveled by Frankie Luvu. So
maybe I should cut him some slack.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Yeah, I don't know. Maybe that was just punishment for
such a bad interception. But golf was absolutely destroyed by
Jet's legend Frankie Luvu on this play. But like I said,
a lot of support for Washington on the show once again. Well,
I'll start with you, because you're attacking this from an
(04:40):
interesting angle, attacking the other side, attacking an offense that
was very lackluster last week, a quarterback that we do
not support, a quarterback with a bum ankle who needs
to be effective on the ground for this offense to
be fully efficient. You've got Eagles team total under twenty
seven and a half.
Speaker 5 (05:00):
Yeah, this is the first thing I put into my
account this week. I think it's still the only thing
I put into my account this week. This is one
where I basically see I like betting these spots where
there's multiple paths to victory, and I think this is
one of them. I think if the Eagles win, they're
going to be pounding the rock anyway because they got
(05:20):
ahead and their defense is doing good work against this
Washington offense, which I think it matches up well against.
So like, I think the Eagles could win a low
scoring game here, and then I think if the Eagles lose,
they're definitely not passing twenty seven and a half points here.
So I think no matter who wins this game, the
(05:43):
Eagles are a fair bet to stay under this team total.
It's really high for me in a game where we do.
We just haven't seen Jalen Hurts play replacement level football
basically in the playoffs. I don't know why the market's
so confident in Philly. I can get behind this defense
being in a good spot. Basically, Jaden Daniels destroyed the
(06:05):
blitz last week against Detroit.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
We know what the Eagles are gonna do.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
They're not gonna blitz, they're gonna rush for They're gonna
sit back in their zone, and Jaden Daniels has been
much less effective in that spot. I think it's a
good matchup for their defense, but I don't have any
confidence Hurts is gonna be able to come out and
complete passes down the field. I think this is similar
(06:29):
to last week, where if Washington covers, they're probably gonna
win this game. I mean, I don't think taking the
points with Washington makes that much sense, really. I think
you should either take Washington money line or just lay
the points with the Eagles, because if the Eagles defense
comes out and plays the way it could, yeah, they
could shut Washington down. I could see that happening. I mean,
(06:51):
this Washington offense has not been able to run the
ball at all on the Eagles in multiple times when
they face them this year.
Speaker 4 (06:59):
It's it's just.
Speaker 5 (07:00):
Been the Eagles have even though they are playing all
these light boxes, they must just have enough muscle up
front to stop this mediocre Washington O line. And and
then you have Sam Cosey, Sam like maybe their best lineman.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
He's out. I mean, man, it's kind of yeah.
Speaker 5 (07:21):
But then on the other side, dude, the Eagles are
I mean, they're thirty second in pass right over expectation
and they actually run the ball more often in the
playoffs than they did in the regular season. So this
is going to be a clock chewing game from the Eagles.
The question for me, is this our long Saquon Barkley
touchdowns predictive?
Speaker 1 (07:41):
I don't know, Brett.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
You've got no official play on this game, but you
are leaning in the direction that Moe is alluding to,
which is Washington money line.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
I think that normally this would be a spot where
we want to fade the Commanders right after the way
they just ran away from Detroit last week.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
But trust me, I'll be giving the barecase after after
you got Yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
But I have my concerns about the Eagles too. You know,
we talked about this last week. If you're gonna bet
a Commander's game, look at the Alts, look at the
way the Commanders play football. So it's like Comedy's money
line or Eagles. I don't know minus thirteen and a
half here, because you're either gonna get more plays from Washington,
more scoring, higher probability of a win, or you're gonna
(08:24):
get the other end, which is you know, they're gonna
go forward on fourth and three, fourth and four in
their own end and it results in positive field position
for the opponent, more points if they don't convert. That's
incredibly important here, and that's why I am leaning Washington.
Money line is my play. Jane Daniels is the X factor.
He's obviously the most important player in this game, and
(08:45):
if he balls out like you did the last time
these two teams played, Washington is very live for just
a straight up win. I am nervous about this Washington
offensive line against the Eagles front. With cosme out towards
ACL last week, that's a huge loss. He started every
game for Washington this year, led the NFL and pass
protection snaps at his position. So now you have to
(09:07):
face Jalen Carter with a guy in Trent Scott who's
been around the league for a while but has little
harmony with this unit. That's a problem. So end of
the day, I just I don't trust Jalen Hurts, Like
if the Eagles are in a critical final moment of
a football game, I don't trust him, especially with the
(09:27):
injury now. So I think Commies do win this game
more often than what the market is telling us. So
that's that's where I'm lanning. I probably will have a
bet on the on the Commanders by Sunday.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
I think this is a very, very very tough spot
for Washington. This is their fourth straight road game, and
I know Week eight team was a bit fake because
they only played for a half in Dallas, but this
rhythm of always going on the road time and time
again can catch up with you. You've got the Lions
(09:59):
flu after playing Detroit last week, a very physical game
with an offensive line that's already banged up, and now
you have to go to Philly, who definitely have a
trench advantage on both sides of the ball. And if
I'm playing this game, I think it's Philadelphia. I think
(10:19):
it's Philadelphia by margin. I just think they're going to
be able to grind this team into a poll. That
being said, the thing that always scares you in these
scenarios where it looks like one team is better from
a team standpoint, but just doesn't have explosives in it
is a quarterback like Jaydon Daniels who can flip the
(10:39):
entire game on its head, who can have its team
turn the ball over five times and fail to cover
a fail to convert a fourth down in its own
territory and still win, which is what happened the last
time they played the Eagles. Yes, I know, Kenny Pikett
was a quarterback for Philadelphia, but Washington played about as
poor as possible in certain spots, and still, because their
(11:00):
quarterback might be the fourth best quarterback on the planet,
they were able to come out in the fourth quarter
and win that football game. So I understand the worry.
If Washington win this game, I will be zero percent shocked.
That being said, I just think the Eagles machine in
their trench advantage is just going to be too much
(11:21):
for a Washington team that has been playing one hundred
percent for two weeks in a row on the road.
Lions flew and I just think they just might hit
a wall in this game. And look, I'm the number
one Hurts denigrator on the planet too, so I'm not
exact the game to come out and be amazing. I
think the angle injury is huge because the last time
(11:44):
these two teams played, win Hurts was in the game
briefly at the beginning. He had a lot of success
running against this team and we've seen Bobby Wagner on
the injury report four multiple weeks now, So that is
a weakness for Washington that can be attacked. But the
other side, I will say that again once again, if
you want to get comedies involved, I think parlaying with
(12:04):
Jade and Daniels rushing totals is extremely sharp because the
last time these two teams met, Jane Daniels ran for
eighty yards and na Kobe Dean was in that game.
There's no more to Kobe Dean, and that dude is
an absolute speed demon at linebacker for Philadelphia, so they're
not going to be able to replicate that with his backup.
There's going to be rushing lanes available, and if the
(12:25):
offensive line isn't up to snuff, Jayden will probably be
more likely to break pocket more often and get those
runs off. So if you do, like Washington, get Daniels
running in there once again, DP, you've got an interesting
one in this game, and it will kind of segue us
into the AFC Championship because you're kind of you're doing
(12:45):
the old Nolan Daala here a little suicide squeeze suicide
teams with both of these teams.
Speaker 6 (12:54):
Yeah, I mean, admittedly, Forcifully, I mean I have been.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Forcibly someone someone's kind of come to your head.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
I mean, well, I've placed maybe eight nine different teasers
the past two weeks, and I've won them all, so
I feel like I have to do one. Okay, that
is why, like the hand of God is forcing me
to press the buttons on this app. Okay, I have
to get something in. I hate doing teasing over unders,
(13:29):
so I stayed away there. I do really like the Bills,
getting them from one and a half up to seven
and a half. So then I went both ways on
the on the the Commedi's Eagles game. I got the
Eagles down to a pick. I got the comedies up
to twelve.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
Hopefully.
Speaker 6 (13:44):
Just try and middle it and just have my fun,
mostly because I just want to keep my super clean
teaser record through the entire playoffs. So and if I
win this week, I have no idea what I'm gonna
do in the super Bowl because as I said, I
don't like to do the over unders, but I guess
I'm gonna have to because that's just how it is.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
If you want to keep it clean, shoun, you just stop. Now,
come on, this is gambling, bro, we let it ride.
Get the hell, get this guy off the podcast.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
Stop open teaser with the super Bowl, and then.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Say open you beat me?
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Do it open teas they want to.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
I was gonna say that's a part of any kind
of fun off shores.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
That we don't talk about.
Speaker 6 (14:31):
I was honestly surprised they even let me do this.
I was like, once they see the one side in
the account, they're probably just gonna say, oh, no, you
can't do this because it's whatever, Like because these books
are all ridiculous these days.
Speaker 5 (14:42):
No.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
I think the best part is that Donnie, you you
talked to your friend off the ledge hopefully of teasing
the Lions last week, because you're trying to explain to
him wrong teasers and he wanted to tease the Lions down.
You're like, this doesn't make sense, did you. Well, you're
successful in talking him off the ledge.
Speaker 6 (14:58):
I didn't say anything in response to that message, but
it was just funny that a good friend of mine
and who many of you know has worked in the
gambling industry forever and in sports betting. I had no
idea what a wom teaser was. I just thought that
that was absolutely calmon, it's whatever, all right, the waight
(15:21):
is over the.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Bills, make me wanna.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Brett tease us. He said there was a chance. I
guess there always was a chance that he was gonna go.
But it sounds like he will be in the comfy
confines of the farm in Buffalo. Did some shovel in
this week, get some rest and relaxation.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
There's no way Brett still has a showing.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
I was gonna say plowing. It's a flowing this week.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
There's this shoveling for maintenance. It's it's it's snowblower plus shovel.
It's not all shovel thank god.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
But how are we feeling?
Speaker 4 (16:00):
I don't feel great. I feel worse than I did
last week, and I didn't feel good last week either.
Why because it's the Chiefs.
Speaker 6 (16:08):
Last week?
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Yeah, but last week was I feel like the penultimate
step of maturation from Josh Right. He just needed to
play a clean game, lay a clean game. This is
just he's just like this is a video game. He's
leveling up. He is ready to take on the end
boss easy though Brett can't even fain. Brett can't even
(16:33):
feign optimists.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
Can we just talk to me?
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Hold on?
Speaker 6 (16:36):
Can I can I just read this text from my
dad after the game, because this is I think what
Brett's getting to and it's not it's not too crazier
over the top, but it does paint a picture, and
I think how a lot of Bill's fans are feeling.
I said to my dad, I said, what a win.
He said, nail biter. I think we can beat case
I said. I said, okay, saying but it won't be easy.
(16:57):
He said, I know, but this game was tougher, which
I think embodies the identity of the Bills thinking we
get past the Rice, similar to Red Sox Yankees back
in the day, we get past the Yankees were winning
the World Series. Like that's kind of the thought process there.
I think that because so many people were like, these
are the two best teams in the AFC, this is
(17:18):
the real AFC Championship game. Whoever wins this Lamar Josh
comes out, they go to case they end the Chiefs,
and they go on to the Promised Land. That's how
I think a lot of people feel, which I also
think is why Brett is like, everyone, slow the f down.
This is still Casey and it's still Mahomes. We still
got to go to Arrowhead.
Speaker 4 (17:37):
Yeah, okay, say, that's not how I feel at all.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
I'm not you.
Speaker 6 (17:40):
I'm saying you are like everyone else, chill out.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
You know what you are.
Speaker 6 (17:45):
You are the meme of the guy standing in the
corner while everyone's dancing. You walk in with your cup
and you're like.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
They don't know.
Speaker 6 (17:52):
We have to go play Mahomes.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
The pain of these playoff games have brought me. I
I'm I'm scarred. I scarred, and it's just it's impossible
for me. This is a betting podcast. It's impossible for
me to handicap this game without some sort of unconscious
bias because of what's happened the last four years. Josh
(18:14):
Allen's four and one against the Chiefs in the regular
season in zero to three in the playoffs. How could
I feel good going into Arrowhead again knowing that it's
like the Chiefs in January are just different and like
is lackluster and as sleepy as this Chiefs team has
(18:36):
looked this year. The one thing we've talked about for
the past five years on this podcast, there is no
duo better in high leverage than Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
They find a way if you give them an opportunity,
they find a way. That is always in the back
of my mind, even though the Bills are cleaner. Like McDermott,
his his in game decision making his clock management is
(18:59):
better that it has been, but it's still like it
haunts me because they've given the Chiefs games in the
playoffs the past four years.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Buried the lead. This line is one and a half
in favor of Kansas City. I think the problem is
I didn't see Kansas City flip the switch last week,
and Mo, I think you will agree in person, you
were very scared. You legitimately thought that the Houston Texans
(19:31):
were live in that contest. So tell me, are the Chiefs, who,
let's say it, they didn't flip.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
The switch last week? Are they gonna flip the switch here?
Speaker 5 (19:41):
I still think they could. Maybe they maybe they felt
like they didn't need to when they're eight and a
half point favorites, which I think is probably fair. I mean,
they just won that game the exact same way they've
won all season, which is just manage the game, don't
make any big mistakes, and let the other team blow
(20:02):
its dick to smithereens. Here's the thing, though, all of
the evidence this year tells us the Bills won't do that.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
That at the time team in the league at not
blowing their disaw at.
Speaker 5 (20:15):
The same time you saw last week the inner lunatic
is still fighting to get out of Josh Allen multiple
plays where he thought about pitching the ball when defenders
were like wrapping him up. I'm like, dude, there's still
a lunatic fighting to get out in there. And if
that guy comes out, I still think if you made
(20:37):
me pick which quarterback is going to make a catastrophic
mistake in this game, I still think it's Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
Well, of course it is.
Speaker 5 (20:44):
I know he's been great this year, but he thought
about doing some absolutely insane thing on the goal line
with a three hundred pound man bear hugging him. He
tried to pitch the ball. He thought better of it
halfway through because I think he physically couldn't get his
arms in position to pitch the ball and realize this
isn't going to work. But man, the fact that he's
(21:06):
even thinking about that makes me just wonder if the
inner lunatic comes out in a spot where, let's just
be honest, the Bills might actually have to make a
play to win this game. I mean, I know, friend
of the podcast Matt Clark was screaming and crying about
how the Chiefs didn't have to win last week. The
Bills really didn't have to win either. They got outplayed
(21:29):
by the Ravens and it wasn't really all that close,
but the Ravens made too many mistakes. I'm not saying
they deserve to win, because I don't think they did.
The Bills played the cleaner game, and sometimes that's what
matters in football. Like I said, football can be a
game where it's about not making bad plays. This isn't
like basketball, where you get a hundred possessions. If you
(21:52):
blow for the first five possessions, you still have ninety
five left to iron out the variants. In football, both
teams get the ball roughly eight times, so if you
give it away three times, that's.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
Pretty much the ball game.
Speaker 5 (22:07):
I mean, it's really hard to make up for that
because you only have five more possessions, so you really
can't do that. But at this point, the Bills are
probably going to have to make a play. They're on
the road playing against an elite team. At the same time,
the Chiefs are going to have to make some plays too,
but history tells me they can, so I wonder about
(22:30):
the over in this game. That's like the big major
market that I'm looking at.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
I think.
Speaker 5 (22:35):
But the problem is, I think both teams are going
to move the ball and have success, but it might
be kind of slow. The Chiefs, we know how slow
they move the ball nowadays, and that's kind of what
the Bills want to do too. They want to play
mistake free football, and I think both teams are going
to be looking to, you know, matriculate the ball, like
(22:55):
if this was the Super Bowl and you could find
because I looked, I don't know if this is out there.
If you could find an over first downs prop like
you could in the Super Bowl, I think that might
be a play here.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
But I did.
Speaker 5 (23:07):
I looked around a little bit, and I didn't find it.
I just we saw the Chiefs defense over the middle
kind of get diced up by the Texans. Those are
gonna be shorter passes. And then on the other side,
we know the Bills like to play light boxes against
the Chiefs. They've done it for years. The Chiefs have
actually ran the ball pretty decently against Buffalo. They ran
(23:29):
the ball pretty decently when these teams played before this season.
It was I think seventeen for like eighty ish yards.
So I think they're gonna be able to get you know,
five yards of carry again here on the Bills, probably
so we could see I don't think we're going to
see a lot of punts, but I don't know how
fast the points are going to pile up.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
I guess.
Speaker 5 (23:53):
One thing I really like in this game. Longest field
goal under forty seven and a half I think is
really really good. I'm gonna that's one proble I'm for
sure gonna bet when I land in Colorado and I
have DK and fan duel available to me today, I'm
going to fire that. I have zero confidence Bucker can
make a kick longer than forty yards. That is a
(24:14):
big concern for me in this game. He still is
like sinking to a knee when he kicks.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
I don't know. I can't tell you, guys.
Speaker 5 (24:21):
I'm an expert at kicking footballs, but having watched football
for thirty years, I'm certain that's not the way you're
supposed to do it. Okay, so something's wrong there. He's
still trying to play hurt, and so I don't think
the Chiefs can make a long field goal. I don't
think the Bills are even gonna try a long field
goal if it's fourth and within reason, I think McDermott
(24:42):
has likely mostly learned his lesson and is gonna go
so Defending short yardage is definitely one of my concerns
for the Chiefs here. Overall, I think this is a
really tough game to handicap. From a side standpoint, I
know that you have all the confidence in the world
that the Bills are going to do it rich So
I can't wait to hear why.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
I just I've been so uninspired by the Chiefs all season,
and I just don't see the Cavalry coming. The success
that the Chiefs had against the Bills the first time
they played was definitely in run defense. Guys not named
Josh Allen had nineteen carries for forty nine yards in
(25:24):
that game.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Josh Allen still had like Josh Allen twelve for fifty
two or something.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
I mean, he didn't the Chiefs a quarter which for
a quarterback, anything under like five yards to carry is
very poor because you've got there's scrambles and stuff in
there which tend to elevate those numbers. So it's gonna
be a lot of Josh Allen in this game. He
dropped back forty times the last time they played. In
addition to those twelve carries, that's fifty two times where
(25:51):
Josh Allen was the guy on a play and I
think we're going to see a lot similar to that
in this game. And but Josha just played so oh well,
one of his six interceptions came in this game. But
again it was a fourth down on the other side
of the field where he just got to throw it up,
and that's what Josh did. So he once again played
(26:12):
and I think it was it was either it was
one of the tight ends. I think it was Dawson Knox.
He got caught up because I watched it this morning.
He didn't he thought he might become a blocker. He
thought Josh might break, so Dawson just like kind of
stopped his route and turned to like block the nickel linebacker.
But but Josh drew the ball, so it was it
was a whatever play It wasn't It wasn't a bad
(26:33):
decision or anything like that. So I just I think
Josh is just playing at such such an elite level
right now. Shakir is the perfect player for this matchup.
Like you said, Mo, there's so much opportunity to attack
the Chiefs in the middle level. In the middle of
the field over the middle, and I think Shakiir is
(26:54):
just tailor made to take advantage of that matchup and
the way the Bills defense is playing, I think they're
gonna give Mahomes a ton of fits. Andy went deep
into his back in this game against the Bills. We
were throwing passes to Peyton Henderson and Mike Caliendo in
this game, Like Andy, Andy brought out the good plays
(27:18):
in this game and still lost by nine points in
in Orchard Park. So I think it's I think it's
an uphill battle for Kansas City. That said, just like
in the previous cap, when you've got a quarterback like
Mahomes on the other side, you're not gonna be super
duper comfortable. So I do lean Bills, but this is
certainly not I'm not standing on a table like I
(27:39):
am for the youth. I think the Eagles have a
very clear advantage in a lot of spots in that game,
and it just comes down to ken Jayden Daniels be
an elite quarterback, whereas this game, it's just it's just
a proper heavyweight fight. There's gonna be some bounce of
the ball, some play that leans it one way.
Speaker 3 (27:54):
Or the other.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
And I think the only certain thing I'm I am
about this game is how uncertain I am of the outcome.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
So DP brings up a very important point, Brett.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
You said, in high leverage on an offensive down, there's
two people who you don't trust more than Mahomes and
Andy Reid, and I gotta say there's a third one,
especially if he gets injected with the good stuff again
before Sunday. And that's number eighty seven, Travis Kelsey.
Speaker 6 (28:25):
Right, TP, Yeah, I mean, how can you not bet
on this guy every single week when it comes to
the playoffs. I mean, he's he's just unbelievable.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
It's it's wild.
Speaker 6 (28:35):
When he broke off that that what was sixty hours last?
I mean, first of all, can somebody tell these damn
coaches that Travis Kelcey is playing football every single week?
I mean, it's unbelievable. These guys just don't cover him.
It's freaking wild. And then like you watch him and
you're like, I have no idea how this guy's open
(28:56):
because he moves slower than any of us. And I'm
not even exaggerating, he legit it moves slower than me. Dude,
not kidding.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
That was too.
Speaker 5 (29:03):
That play had two more tackles broken than I've seen
Kelsey break all season. But he didn't look any better
than he looked like last year when he came out
against the Bills and was just shredding. He looked like
old Travis Kelcey. That did not look like old Travis Kelcey.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
Oh, he's like barely moving. It's it's wild out there.
How it happens. That said, it's money time and it's
mahomes to Kelcey every single damn week in the playoffs.
It's freaking wild. So I'm looking at over receiving yards.
I thought receptions was a little bit more risky. I
think I saw what six and a half?
Speaker 5 (29:39):
Six and a half juice to the over guys. The
market is pricing in playoff chiefs because Travis kelce has
not been close to these numbers for a lot of
the season.
Speaker 6 (29:52):
Yeah, and then I like, I'll just take some anytime
touchdown plus one thirty whatever, I mean, if they get
anywhere near the red zone, which I expect that there's
going to be a bunch of ball movement in this one.
They're gonna have plenty of opportunities to score. I mean,
Travis is the guy, He's the go to guy, so
I really do like it.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Well, when we saw what we saw in the two
money downs last week with the Bills, they gave up
a touchdown to Isaiah Likelely and then on the two point,
I mean, they gave up the two point to Mark
Andrews and the guy just fucking dropped. So if those guys
can get schemed open, you know, on a money down
in the red zone, I'm thinking eighty seven might get
a chance to get a touchdown.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
My biggest concern is Casey's speed against Buffalo's secondary, specifically
the safeties. This is already one of the worst tandems
in the NFL and now could be down Taylor Rap too,
which leaves Damar Hamlin and a rookie as that last
line of defense against Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown and
of course Kelsey up the middle too. Mahomes should feast
(30:52):
in this game. There's no excuse here. This is not
a good Bills defense. There are leaks all over and
so I like Mahome homes overs here, touchdowns yards. I
think we're going to get exposed, much like we did
against the Rams and the lines late in the year,
and so that's I'm terrified that we get the very
best Patrick Mahomes in this game.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
You beat me to it.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
I was literally going to ask you, does Taylor rat
matter the issue with that? And this is where our
guy Matt Clark, he just popped up and he's listening
to the podcast. Patrick Mahomes was thirty at the air
Yards this year. So is that because Xavier Worthy doesn't
(31:36):
know what he's doing going downfield, doesn't have the connection
with Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
It just didn't.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
It wasn't there this year, right, And some of it
is scheme. Some of it is that Xavier Worthy getting
up to speed. Obviously, no Rashie Rice, no Hollywood Brown
for most of the season, they do have Hollywood back,
So I don't know. I don't know if the Chiefs,
my father's Chiefs maybe throwing the Tyreek Hill ninety yards downfield.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
Maybe maybe that's a possibility. But mo is this team
gonna have success going downfield.
Speaker 5 (32:10):
That's the thing. Mahomes' downfield accuracy has been a little
leaky for multiple seasons in a row. Now that being said,
I agree with Brett. These safeties are the weak point.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
Number one.
Speaker 5 (32:25):
Number two a couple things in the Chiefs favor that
I will say the connection with Worthy has been better
over the second half of the season. It definitely has
been Number two. I think Hollywood Brown is a very
helpful piece here. This passing offense looked significantly more effective
when he came back to last few games. I thought
he gave the Chiefs a real boost. Now that didn't
(32:49):
show up last week. But the Texans have elite outside cornerbacks, man,
I mean, Christian Benford is very good. I don't think
the rest of this secondary is scaring me overall, So
there should be opportunities here. Like Brett said that that
might not have been there just because the Texans are
that good man, That defense is great.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
That's the thing.
Speaker 5 (33:09):
You have to grade that game on a curve, like
I know the Chiefs looked lethargic. I know they looked poor.
They got overwhelmed up front by a much better pass
rush than.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
What the Bills have.
Speaker 5 (33:19):
The Bills are solid, but the Texans are like top
five and and they're their outside corners are tremendous, so
they are very difficult to beat down the field, which
is why I said that was going to be a
low a dot game. I knew it was going to be,
it was this one could look a bit different. That's
why I still think there's there's a possibility that this
(33:42):
could get into old Chiefs Bills shootout mode. I actually
think that could happen here. I mean, I told I
think it's going to be a slower game, but I
think it's possible.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Well, let's what it's kind of alluded to.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
If like Josh is gonna have the ball fifty times,
they scored fifty points the last time.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
These two teams played, right, like.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
In the total in that game, the market total was lower.
That was like forty four and a half total or
something like.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
If you're telling me the quarterbacks in this game, we're
gonna have the ball one hundred times, like it's gonna
be points, Like these guys are going to will their
team to points. So I definitely forty eight is is
up there. But I definitely like, I'm not betting against
these two guys. Look at last week with the Bill's
(34:29):
Ravens game, right, I had that cap dead wrong. But
it's just when you get two quarterbacks of that caliber,
it doesn't matter how poor Lamar Jackson plays in one
half he can just play magic for a full half
and get the ball downfield and score points. So I'm
over forty. It's definitely in play in this contest. Boy,
(34:51):
oh boy, Moe's gonna be playing something poker, like, are
you going to be actually in a tournament?
Speaker 3 (34:58):
Hopefully?
Speaker 5 (34:59):
Finger Last year during this game against the Ravens, I was,
I was in my chief stuff in enemy territory in Colorado,
and I think people thought I was like winning poker hands.
I kept yelling and getting bucked during that. It was
all it was all for big Chiefs plays against the Ravens.
(35:23):
So uh yeah, it's I mean, no poker hand is
gonna excite me like the Chiefs trying to go to
the super Bowl, So uh yeah, it was.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
It was great, man. I mean I hope so again.
Speaker 5 (35:38):
Last two years I've been there, and two years ago
was one of the funniest experiences I had. We were
we were I was Busto that day and we were
all in the sportsbook watching. There was this Bengals fan
in the front row. This guy's heart was broken.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Man.
Speaker 5 (35:55):
He he was just going through it. Every call, that
last call especially. I mean, this guy was just having
the toughest time man. So uh it sometimes it's it's
good to be the Evil Empire.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Sometimes Brett final thoughts, what will you be doing on Sunday?
What is the what is the viewing experience? Like Nicolson.
Speaker 4 (36:16):
Also, it's usually so my wife can't sit down during
Bill's games, just she can't physically sit down. She has
to be doing something in the kitchen or walking around
or like pacing. She's like the entire game, she's worried
about Josh Allen getting her. Doesn't care what the score is.
It's just is Josh Allen healthy? So uh, that's usually
(36:37):
and me trying to stay sane. I guess I'm just
I'm really nervous about this game, and I'm going to
be It's going to be a rough night if we
lose to Casey again in the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
Get the pump kings ready, I can't even buy them.
I should have those stocked up.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
I don't know why I don't. But yeah, there will
be drinking. I honestly, win or lose, there's gonna be
drinking on Sunday. That's a guarantee.
Speaker 3 (37:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Well, six pm Eastern on Sunday, all eyes will be
on Arrowhead and will know who the NFC winner is.
Will it be once again the boring Philadelphia Eagles. I
gotta say, I grew up in Central Jersey. I know
a lot of Eagles fans. I'm sick and tired of it.
Tired Philly's won the World Series, Eagles have won a
(37:28):
Super Bowl. I'm tired of it. I'm much more, have
much more empathy for Brett. It's so funny. I'm in
this Jets discord and they just hate the Bills. They
have so much vitriol to the Bills, and I'm like,
we were never good with the Bills. At the same time,
I have like zero percent bad feelings towards towards Buffalo.
I would be very happy if Josh and my good
(37:49):
friend Brett were to enjoy this ride.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
But the Eagles, man, I.
Speaker 2 (37:53):
Just I will be even if I have money on Philadelphia,
I will be rooting for Jaye Daniels and the Commanders
win that game.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
How can you not.
Speaker 5 (38:02):
It's history. It's history on both sides. You got one side,
Chiefs going for three pete and you got the other side.
Literal rookie has never ever.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Gotten this far. I mean that's awesome.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
Yeah, it's I cannot wait for the football on Sunday,
and neither of these games look to be super one
side even with that that's six point spread, because we
know how explosive the Washington offense could be. Like we
said in that range of outcomes, Washington outright wins is
not that surprising. One more show the big game. We
(38:40):
back in your ears in a couple of weeks. Follow
these guys on Twitter at Brett Colson co double L
s O N at Donnie Underscore Peters and at Monora
and you double w R A H. I'm at rich
T Ryan. Best of luck in your betting ventures this weekend.
Enjoy the football. Only three more games left, PA, Talk
to you soon.
Speaker 1 (39:01):
Cast
And welcome back to.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great Ier Cambel, the only podcast that puts its money
where its mouth is. I'm your host, Brich Ryan, and
I'm joined by the entire collective, the Disciple, Bret Holsen,
Donnie DP Peters, and the resident Moose himself mo Nowara.
If you're watching this on YouTube, please like the video
(00:33):
and subscribe to the channel. Listeners, rate and review in
your podcatcher of choice five stars only like Chiefs Legend
and a man who I hope is still afraid of horses,
Eric Berry. A lot of sunshine in the videos I'm
seeing right now, Brett. I've never seen you brighter. And
(00:54):
is it because perhaps maybe for the first time, you
could be traveling to Arrowhead to play in one of
these playoff games with the better football team.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
Is that a thing that's happening.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
I don't think. So we'll talk about.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Why Moe's got his Kansas City red on, VP's rocking
the PGT something poker, and let's let's stick right into it.
There's only three games left. It's this the start of
the season where things are getting sad. Only a couple
of football games left. Donnie's no longer Patriots fans so
(01:36):
he doesn't have any allegiances. He's just sitting there watching.
But for me, this is the time of the year
where things start to get exciting, actually because Hope springs
eternal and the Jets are undefeated in the off season
new head coach Aaron Glenn. But for Mo it's the
last couple of years. This is this is when this
is business time. And for Brett always knock him on
(01:58):
the door. It's always a clenched butt season. But we'll
start in the other conference. We'll go in order of
the games, and we've got our Washington formerly Racial Slurs,
formerly football team, now Commanders traveling to Philadelphia to take
on the Eagles. The Eagles are six point favorites. I
(02:20):
believe this opened closer to four and was immediately bet up.
I saw as high as six and a half in
some places. Don't think it ever tested seven. But I'm
seeing six at a very influential offshore book.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
I'm seeing a.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Total of forty eight. And I'm seeing, once again from
the collective, a lot of support for our Commanders, who
we were all over last week. I'm not going to
be smerge Brett for his take about betting the Lions
and betting alts because that was the route to go.
Speaker 5 (02:54):
Well, they still had eight yards per play.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
In that game.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
But Brett didn't come on here and say that the
Lions are definitely gonna win this game by margin. You're
an idiot if you think otherwise. It was just a
take on what the range of outcomes was in this game,
and we said, if you think the other side, if
you think it's Washington, you should be on money line,
you should be on passing totals, rushing totals on the
(03:17):
other side. And there were some juicy parlays to be
had if you were pro Washington in that game.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Mo, the one that didn't come home.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Your best take on the pod Washington money line and
Lions over thirty one and a half an absolutely brutal
beat for you.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
That one goes into the Hall of Most out Fame.
I think that was one of my greatest touts ever.
If I basically needed Dan Campbell to be aggressive one
last time, man, I mean it was what like fourth
and five on the ten or something. You're down a million,
(03:55):
I just try to get a touchdown of all the
spots to kick.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
He picks that one. I just needed him to go there.
Speaker 5 (04:02):
And then Jared Goff obviously not to turn into a
pumpkin well last drive. Although I have heard some takes
that maybe none of this was his fault and he
was concussed the whole time because all of his bad
decisions happened after he got leveled by Frankie Luvu. So
maybe I should cut him some slack.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Yeah, I don't know. Maybe that was just punishment for
such a bad interception. But golf was absolutely destroyed by
Jet's legend Frankie Luvu on this play. But like I said,
a lot of support for Washington on the show once again. Well,
I'll start with you, because you're attacking this from an
(04:40):
interesting angle, attacking the other side, attacking an offense that
was very lackluster last week, a quarterback that we do
not support, a quarterback with a bum ankle who needs
to be effective on the ground for this offense to
be fully efficient. You've got Eagles team total under twenty
seven and a half.
Speaker 5 (05:00):
Yeah, this is the first thing I put into my
account this week. I think it's still the only thing
I put into my account this week. This is one
where I basically see I like betting these spots where
there's multiple paths to victory, and I think this is
one of them. I think if the Eagles win, they're
going to be pounding the rock anyway because they got
(05:20):
ahead and their defense is doing good work against this
Washington offense, which I think it matches up well against.
So like, I think the Eagles could win a low
scoring game here, and then I think if the Eagles lose,
they're definitely not passing twenty seven and a half points here.
So I think no matter who wins this game, the
(05:43):
Eagles are a fair bet to stay under this team total.
It's really high for me in a game where we do.
We just haven't seen Jalen Hurts play replacement level football
basically in the playoffs. I don't know why the market's
so confident in Philly. I can get behind this defense
being in a good spot. Basically, Jaden Daniels destroyed the
(06:05):
blitz last week against Detroit.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
We know what the Eagles are gonna do.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
They're not gonna blitz, they're gonna rush for They're gonna
sit back in their zone, and Jaden Daniels has been
much less effective in that spot. I think it's a
good matchup for their defense, but I don't have any
confidence Hurts is gonna be able to come out and
complete passes down the field. I think this is similar
(06:29):
to last week, where if Washington covers, they're probably gonna
win this game. I mean, I don't think taking the
points with Washington makes that much sense, really. I think
you should either take Washington money line or just lay
the points with the Eagles, because if the Eagles defense
comes out and plays the way it could, yeah, they
could shut Washington down. I could see that happening. I mean,
(06:51):
this Washington offense has not been able to run the
ball at all on the Eagles in multiple times when
they face them this year.
Speaker 4 (06:59):
It's it's just.
Speaker 5 (07:00):
Been the Eagles have even though they are playing all
these light boxes, they must just have enough muscle up
front to stop this mediocre Washington O line. And and
then you have Sam Cosey, Sam like maybe their best lineman.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
He's out. I mean, man, it's kind of yeah.
Speaker 5 (07:21):
But then on the other side, dude, the Eagles are
I mean, they're thirty second in pass right over expectation
and they actually run the ball more often in the
playoffs than they did in the regular season. So this
is going to be a clock chewing game from the Eagles.
The question for me, is this our long Saquon Barkley
touchdowns predictive?
Speaker 1 (07:41):
I don't know, Brett.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
You've got no official play on this game, but you
are leaning in the direction that Moe is alluding to,
which is Washington money line.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
I think that normally this would be a spot where
we want to fade the Commanders right after the way
they just ran away from Detroit last week.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
But trust me, I'll be giving the barecase after after
you got Yeah.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
But I have my concerns about the Eagles too. You know,
we talked about this last week. If you're gonna bet
a Commander's game, look at the Alts, look at the
way the Commanders play football. So it's like Comedy's money
line or Eagles. I don't know minus thirteen and a
half here, because you're either gonna get more plays from Washington,
more scoring, higher probability of a win, or you're gonna
(08:24):
get the other end, which is you know, they're gonna
go forward on fourth and three, fourth and four in
their own end and it results in positive field position
for the opponent, more points if they don't convert. That's
incredibly important here, and that's why I am leaning Washington.
Money line is my play. Jane Daniels is the X factor.
He's obviously the most important player in this game, and
(08:45):
if he balls out like you did the last time
these two teams played, Washington is very live for just
a straight up win. I am nervous about this Washington
offensive line against the Eagles front. With cosme out towards
ACL last week, that's a huge loss. He started every
game for Washington this year, led the NFL and pass
protection snaps at his position. So now you have to
(09:07):
face Jalen Carter with a guy in Trent Scott who's
been around the league for a while but has little
harmony with this unit. That's a problem. So end of
the day, I just I don't trust Jalen Hurts, Like
if the Eagles are in a critical final moment of
a football game, I don't trust him, especially with the
(09:27):
injury now. So I think Commies do win this game
more often than what the market is telling us. So
that's that's where I'm lanning. I probably will have a
bet on the on the Commanders by Sunday.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
I think this is a very, very very tough spot
for Washington. This is their fourth straight road game, and
I know Week eight team was a bit fake because
they only played for a half in Dallas, but this
rhythm of always going on the road time and time
again can catch up with you. You've got the Lions
(09:59):
flu after playing Detroit last week, a very physical game
with an offensive line that's already banged up, and now
you have to go to Philly, who definitely have a
trench advantage on both sides of the ball. And if
I'm playing this game, I think it's Philadelphia. I think
(10:19):
it's Philadelphia by margin. I just think they're going to
be able to grind this team into a poll. That
being said, the thing that always scares you in these
scenarios where it looks like one team is better from
a team standpoint, but just doesn't have explosives in it
is a quarterback like Jaydon Daniels who can flip the
(10:39):
entire game on its head, who can have its team
turn the ball over five times and fail to cover
a fail to convert a fourth down in its own
territory and still win, which is what happened the last
time they played the Eagles. Yes, I know, Kenny Pikett
was a quarterback for Philadelphia, but Washington played about as
poor as possible in certain spots, and still, because their
(11:00):
quarterback might be the fourth best quarterback on the planet,
they were able to come out in the fourth quarter
and win that football game. So I understand the worry.
If Washington win this game, I will be zero percent shocked.
That being said, I just think the Eagles machine in
their trench advantage is just going to be too much
(11:21):
for a Washington team that has been playing one hundred
percent for two weeks in a row on the road.
Lions flew and I just think they just might hit
a wall in this game. And look, I'm the number
one Hurts denigrator on the planet too, so I'm not
exact the game to come out and be amazing. I
think the angle injury is huge because the last time
(11:44):
these two teams played, win Hurts was in the game
briefly at the beginning. He had a lot of success
running against this team and we've seen Bobby Wagner on
the injury report four multiple weeks now, So that is
a weakness for Washington that can be attacked. But the
other side, I will say that again once again, if
you want to get comedies involved, I think parlaying with
(12:04):
Jade and Daniels rushing totals is extremely sharp because the
last time these two teams met, Jane Daniels ran for
eighty yards and na Kobe Dean was in that game.
There's no more to Kobe Dean, and that dude is
an absolute speed demon at linebacker for Philadelphia, so they're
not going to be able to replicate that with his backup.
There's going to be rushing lanes available, and if the
(12:25):
offensive line isn't up to snuff, Jayden will probably be
more likely to break pocket more often and get those
runs off. So if you do, like Washington, get Daniels
running in there once again, DP, you've got an interesting
one in this game, and it will kind of segue us
into the AFC Championship because you're kind of you're doing
(12:45):
the old Nolan Daala here a little suicide squeeze suicide
teams with both of these teams.
Speaker 6 (12:54):
Yeah, I mean, admittedly, Forcifully, I mean I have been.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Forcibly someone someone's kind of come to your head.
Speaker 6 (13:05):
I mean, well, I've placed maybe eight nine different teasers
the past two weeks, and I've won them all, so
I feel like I have to do one. Okay, that
is why, like the hand of God is forcing me
to press the buttons on this app. Okay, I have
to get something in. I hate doing teasing over unders,
(13:29):
so I stayed away there. I do really like the Bills,
getting them from one and a half up to seven
and a half. So then I went both ways on
the on the the Commedi's Eagles game. I got the
Eagles down to a pick. I got the comedies up
to twelve.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
Hopefully.
Speaker 6 (13:44):
Just try and middle it and just have my fun,
mostly because I just want to keep my super clean
teaser record through the entire playoffs. So and if I
win this week, I have no idea what I'm gonna
do in the super Bowl because as I said, I
don't like to do the over unders, but I guess
I'm gonna have to because that's just how it is.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
If you want to keep it clean, shoun, you just stop. Now,
come on, this is gambling, bro, we let it ride.
Get the hell, get this guy off the podcast.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
Stop open teaser with the super Bowl, and then.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Say open you beat me?
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Do it open teas they want to.
Speaker 2 (14:25):
I was gonna say that's a part of any kind
of fun off shores.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
That we don't talk about.
Speaker 6 (14:31):
I was honestly surprised they even let me do this.
I was like, once they see the one side in
the account, they're probably just gonna say, oh, no, you
can't do this because it's whatever, Like because these books
are all ridiculous these days.
Speaker 5 (14:42):
No.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
I think the best part is that Donnie, you you
talked to your friend off the ledge hopefully of teasing
the Lions last week, because you're trying to explain to
him wrong teasers and he wanted to tease the Lions down.
You're like, this doesn't make sense, did you. Well, you're
successful in talking him off the ledge.
Speaker 6 (14:58):
I didn't say anything in response to that message, but
it was just funny that a good friend of mine
and who many of you know has worked in the
gambling industry forever and in sports betting. I had no
idea what a wom teaser was. I just thought that
that was absolutely calmon, it's whatever, all right, the waight
(15:21):
is over the.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Bills, make me wanna.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Brett tease us. He said there was a chance. I
guess there always was a chance that he was gonna go.
But it sounds like he will be in the comfy
confines of the farm in Buffalo. Did some shovel in
this week, get some rest and relaxation.
Speaker 1 (15:45):
There's no way Brett still has a showing.
Speaker 3 (15:47):
I was gonna say plowing. It's a flowing this week.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
There's this shoveling for maintenance. It's it's it's snowblower plus shovel.
It's not all shovel thank god.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
But how are we feeling?
Speaker 4 (16:00):
I don't feel great. I feel worse than I did
last week, and I didn't feel good last week either.
Why because it's the Chiefs.
Speaker 6 (16:08):
Last week?
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Yeah, but last week was I feel like the penultimate
step of maturation from Josh Right. He just needed to
play a clean game, lay a clean game. This is
just he's just like this is a video game. He's
leveling up. He is ready to take on the end
boss easy though Brett can't even fain. Brett can't even
(16:33):
feign optimists.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
Can we just talk to me?
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Hold on?
Speaker 6 (16:36):
Can I can I just read this text from my
dad after the game, because this is I think what
Brett's getting to and it's not it's not too crazier
over the top, but it does paint a picture, and
I think how a lot of Bill's fans are feeling.
I said to my dad, I said, what a win.
He said, nail biter. I think we can beat case
I said. I said, okay, saying but it won't be easy.
(16:57):
He said, I know, but this game was tougher, which
I think embodies the identity of the Bills thinking we
get past the Rice, similar to Red Sox Yankees back
in the day, we get past the Yankees were winning
the World Series. Like that's kind of the thought process there.
I think that because so many people were like, these
are the two best teams in the AFC, this is
(17:18):
the real AFC Championship game. Whoever wins this Lamar Josh
comes out, they go to case they end the Chiefs,
and they go on to the Promised Land. That's how
I think a lot of people feel, which I also
think is why Brett is like, everyone, slow the f down.
This is still Casey and it's still Mahomes. We still
got to go to Arrowhead.
Speaker 4 (17:37):
Yeah, okay, say, that's not how I feel at all.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
I'm not you.
Speaker 6 (17:40):
I'm saying you are like everyone else, chill out.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
You know what you are.
Speaker 6 (17:45):
You are the meme of the guy standing in the
corner while everyone's dancing. You walk in with your cup
and you're like.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
They don't know.
Speaker 6 (17:52):
We have to go play Mahomes.
Speaker 4 (17:53):
The pain of these playoff games have brought me. I
I'm I'm scarred. I scarred, and it's just it's impossible
for me. This is a betting podcast. It's impossible for
me to handicap this game without some sort of unconscious
bias because of what's happened the last four years. Josh
(18:14):
Allen's four and one against the Chiefs in the regular
season in zero to three in the playoffs. How could
I feel good going into Arrowhead again knowing that it's
like the Chiefs in January are just different and like
is lackluster and as sleepy as this Chiefs team has
(18:36):
looked this year. The one thing we've talked about for
the past five years on this podcast, there is no
duo better in high leverage than Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
They find a way if you give them an opportunity,
they find a way. That is always in the back
of my mind, even though the Bills are cleaner. Like McDermott,
his his in game decision making his clock management is
(18:59):
better that it has been, but it's still like it
haunts me because they've given the Chiefs games in the
playoffs the past four years.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Buried the lead. This line is one and a half
in favor of Kansas City. I think the problem is
I didn't see Kansas City flip the switch last week,
and Mo, I think you will agree in person, you
were very scared. You legitimately thought that the Houston Texans
(19:31):
were live in that contest. So tell me, are the Chiefs, who,
let's say it, they didn't flip.
Speaker 3 (19:37):
The switch last week? Are they gonna flip the switch here?
Speaker 5 (19:41):
I still think they could. Maybe they maybe they felt
like they didn't need to when they're eight and a
half point favorites, which I think is probably fair. I mean,
they just won that game the exact same way they've
won all season, which is just manage the game, don't
make any big mistakes, and let the other team blow
(20:02):
its dick to smithereens. Here's the thing, though, all of
the evidence this year tells us the Bills won't do that.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
That at the time team in the league at not
blowing their disaw at.
Speaker 5 (20:15):
The same time you saw last week the inner lunatic
is still fighting to get out of Josh Allen multiple
plays where he thought about pitching the ball when defenders
were like wrapping him up. I'm like, dude, there's still
a lunatic fighting to get out in there. And if
that guy comes out, I still think if you made
(20:37):
me pick which quarterback is going to make a catastrophic
mistake in this game, I still think it's Josh Allen.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
Well, of course it is.
Speaker 5 (20:44):
I know he's been great this year, but he thought
about doing some absolutely insane thing on the goal line
with a three hundred pound man bear hugging him. He
tried to pitch the ball. He thought better of it
halfway through because I think he physically couldn't get his
arms in position to pitch the ball and realize this
isn't going to work. But man, the fact that he's
(21:06):
even thinking about that makes me just wonder if the
inner lunatic comes out in a spot where, let's just
be honest, the Bills might actually have to make a
play to win this game. I mean, I know, friend
of the podcast Matt Clark was screaming and crying about
how the Chiefs didn't have to win last week. The
Bills really didn't have to win either. They got outplayed
(21:29):
by the Ravens and it wasn't really all that close,
but the Ravens made too many mistakes. I'm not saying
they deserve to win, because I don't think they did.
The Bills played the cleaner game, and sometimes that's what
matters in football. Like I said, football can be a
game where it's about not making bad plays. This isn't
like basketball, where you get a hundred possessions. If you
(21:52):
blow for the first five possessions, you still have ninety
five left to iron out the variants. In football, both
teams get the ball roughly eight times, so if you
give it away three times, that's.
Speaker 1 (22:06):
Pretty much the ball game.
Speaker 5 (22:07):
I mean, it's really hard to make up for that
because you only have five more possessions, so you really
can't do that. But at this point, the Bills are
probably going to have to make a play. They're on
the road playing against an elite team. At the same time,
the Chiefs are going to have to make some plays too,
but history tells me they can, so I wonder about
(22:30):
the over in this game. That's like the big major
market that I'm looking at.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
I think.
Speaker 5 (22:35):
But the problem is, I think both teams are going
to move the ball and have success, but it might
be kind of slow. The Chiefs, we know how slow
they move the ball nowadays, and that's kind of what
the Bills want to do too. They want to play
mistake free football, and I think both teams are going
to be looking to, you know, matriculate the ball, like
(22:55):
if this was the Super Bowl and you could find
because I looked, I don't know if this is out there.
If you could find an over first downs prop like
you could in the Super Bowl, I think that might
be a play here.
Speaker 1 (23:05):
But I did.
Speaker 5 (23:07):
I looked around a little bit, and I didn't find it.
I just we saw the Chiefs defense over the middle
kind of get diced up by the Texans. Those are
gonna be shorter passes. And then on the other side,
we know the Bills like to play light boxes against
the Chiefs. They've done it for years. The Chiefs have
actually ran the ball pretty decently against Buffalo. They ran
(23:29):
the ball pretty decently when these teams played before this season.
It was I think seventeen for like eighty ish yards.
So I think they're gonna be able to get you know,
five yards of carry again here on the Bills, probably
so we could see I don't think we're going to
see a lot of punts, but I don't know how
fast the points are going to pile up.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
I guess.
Speaker 5 (23:53):
One thing I really like in this game. Longest field
goal under forty seven and a half I think is
really really good. I'm gonna that's one proble I'm for
sure gonna bet when I land in Colorado and I
have DK and fan duel available to me today, I'm
going to fire that. I have zero confidence Bucker can
make a kick longer than forty yards. That is a
(24:14):
big concern for me in this game. He still is
like sinking to a knee when he kicks.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
I don't know. I can't tell you, guys.
Speaker 5 (24:21):
I'm an expert at kicking footballs, but having watched football
for thirty years, I'm certain that's not the way you're
supposed to do it. Okay, so something's wrong there. He's
still trying to play hurt, and so I don't think
the Chiefs can make a long field goal. I don't
think the Bills are even gonna try a long field
goal if it's fourth and within reason, I think McDermott
(24:42):
has likely mostly learned his lesson and is gonna go
so Defending short yardage is definitely one of my concerns
for the Chiefs here. Overall, I think this is a
really tough game to handicap. From a side standpoint, I
know that you have all the confidence in the world
that the Bills are going to do it rich So
I can't wait to hear why.
Speaker 2 (25:04):
I just I've been so uninspired by the Chiefs all season,
and I just don't see the Cavalry coming. The success
that the Chiefs had against the Bills the first time
they played was definitely in run defense. Guys not named
Josh Allen had nineteen carries for forty nine yards in
(25:24):
that game.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Josh Allen still had like Josh Allen twelve for fifty
two or something.
Speaker 2 (25:28):
I mean, he didn't the Chiefs a quarter which for
a quarterback, anything under like five yards to carry is
very poor because you've got there's scrambles and stuff in
there which tend to elevate those numbers. So it's gonna
be a lot of Josh Allen in this game. He
dropped back forty times the last time they played. In
addition to those twelve carries, that's fifty two times where
(25:51):
Josh Allen was the guy on a play and I
think we're going to see a lot similar to that
in this game. And but Josha just played so oh well,
one of his six interceptions came in this game. But
again it was a fourth down on the other side
of the field where he just got to throw it up,
and that's what Josh did. So he once again played
(26:12):
and I think it was it was either it was
one of the tight ends. I think it was Dawson Knox.
He got caught up because I watched it this morning.
He didn't he thought he might become a blocker. He
thought Josh might break, so Dawson just like kind of
stopped his route and turned to like block the nickel linebacker.
But but Josh drew the ball, so it was it
was a whatever play It wasn't It wasn't a bad
(26:33):
decision or anything like that. So I just I think
Josh is just playing at such such an elite level
right now. Shakir is the perfect player for this matchup.
Like you said, Mo, there's so much opportunity to attack
the Chiefs in the middle level. In the middle of
the field over the middle, and I think Shakiir is
(26:54):
just tailor made to take advantage of that matchup and
the way the Bills defense is playing, I think they're
gonna give Mahomes a ton of fits. Andy went deep
into his back in this game against the Bills. We
were throwing passes to Peyton Henderson and Mike Caliendo in
this game, Like Andy, Andy brought out the good plays
(27:18):
in this game and still lost by nine points in
in Orchard Park. So I think it's I think it's
an uphill battle for Kansas City. That said, just like
in the previous cap, when you've got a quarterback like
Mahomes on the other side, you're not gonna be super
duper comfortable. So I do lean Bills, but this is
certainly not I'm not standing on a table like I
(27:39):
am for the youth. I think the Eagles have a
very clear advantage in a lot of spots in that game,
and it just comes down to ken Jayden Daniels be
an elite quarterback, whereas this game, it's just it's just
a proper heavyweight fight. There's gonna be some bounce of
the ball, some play that leans it one way.
Speaker 3 (27:54):
Or the other.
Speaker 2 (27:55):
And I think the only certain thing I'm I am
about this game is how uncertain I am of the outcome.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
So DP brings up a very important point, Brett.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
You said, in high leverage on an offensive down, there's
two people who you don't trust more than Mahomes and
Andy Reid, and I gotta say there's a third one,
especially if he gets injected with the good stuff again
before Sunday. And that's number eighty seven, Travis Kelsey.
Speaker 6 (28:25):
Right, TP, Yeah, I mean, how can you not bet
on this guy every single week when it comes to
the playoffs. I mean, he's he's just unbelievable.
Speaker 3 (28:34):
It's it's wild.
Speaker 6 (28:35):
When he broke off that that what was sixty hours last?
I mean, first of all, can somebody tell these damn
coaches that Travis Kelcey is playing football every single week?
I mean, it's unbelievable. These guys just don't cover him.
It's freaking wild. And then like you watch him and
you're like, I have no idea how this guy's open
(28:56):
because he moves slower than any of us. And I'm
not even exaggerating, he legit it moves slower than me. Dude,
not kidding.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
That was too.
Speaker 5 (29:03):
That play had two more tackles broken than I've seen
Kelsey break all season. But he didn't look any better
than he looked like last year when he came out
against the Bills and was just shredding. He looked like
old Travis Kelcey. That did not look like old Travis Kelcey.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
Oh, he's like barely moving. It's it's wild out there.
How it happens. That said, it's money time and it's
mahomes to Kelcey every single damn week in the playoffs.
It's freaking wild. So I'm looking at over receiving yards.
I thought receptions was a little bit more risky. I
think I saw what six and a half?
Speaker 5 (29:39):
Six and a half juice to the over guys. The
market is pricing in playoff chiefs because Travis kelce has
not been close to these numbers for a lot of
the season.
Speaker 6 (29:52):
Yeah, and then I like, I'll just take some anytime
touchdown plus one thirty whatever, I mean, if they get
anywhere near the red zone, which I expect that there's
going to be a bunch of ball movement in this one.
They're gonna have plenty of opportunities to score. I mean,
Travis is the guy, He's the go to guy, so
I really do like it.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
Well, when we saw what we saw in the two
money downs last week with the Bills, they gave up
a touchdown to Isaiah Likelely and then on the two point,
I mean, they gave up the two point to Mark
Andrews and the guy just fucking dropped. So if those guys
can get schemed open, you know, on a money down
in the red zone, I'm thinking eighty seven might get
a chance to get a touchdown.
Speaker 4 (30:32):
My biggest concern is Casey's speed against Buffalo's secondary, specifically
the safeties. This is already one of the worst tandems
in the NFL and now could be down Taylor Rap too,
which leaves Damar Hamlin and a rookie as that last
line of defense against Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown and
of course Kelsey up the middle too. Mahomes should feast
(30:52):
in this game. There's no excuse here. This is not
a good Bills defense. There are leaks all over and
so I like Mahome homes overs here, touchdowns yards. I
think we're going to get exposed, much like we did
against the Rams and the lines late in the year,
and so that's I'm terrified that we get the very
best Patrick Mahomes in this game.
Speaker 3 (31:14):
You beat me to it.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
I was literally going to ask you, does Taylor rat
matter the issue with that? And this is where our
guy Matt Clark, he just popped up and he's listening
to the podcast. Patrick Mahomes was thirty at the air
Yards this year. So is that because Xavier Worthy doesn't
(31:36):
know what he's doing going downfield, doesn't have the connection
with Mahomes.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
It just didn't.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
It wasn't there this year, right, And some of it
is scheme. Some of it is that Xavier Worthy getting
up to speed. Obviously, no Rashie Rice, no Hollywood Brown
for most of the season, they do have Hollywood back,
So I don't know. I don't know if the Chiefs,
my father's Chiefs maybe throwing the Tyreek Hill ninety yards downfield.
Speaker 3 (32:04):
Maybe maybe that's a possibility. But mo is this team
gonna have success going downfield.
Speaker 5 (32:10):
That's the thing. Mahomes' downfield accuracy has been a little
leaky for multiple seasons in a row. Now that being said,
I agree with Brett. These safeties are the weak point.
Speaker 1 (32:24):
Number one.
Speaker 5 (32:25):
Number two a couple things in the Chiefs favor that
I will say the connection with Worthy has been better
over the second half of the season. It definitely has
been Number two. I think Hollywood Brown is a very
helpful piece here. This passing offense looked significantly more effective
when he came back to last few games. I thought
he gave the Chiefs a real boost. Now that didn't
(32:49):
show up last week. But the Texans have elite outside cornerbacks, man,
I mean, Christian Benford is very good. I don't think
the rest of this secondary is scaring me overall, So
there should be opportunities here. Like Brett said that that
might not have been there just because the Texans are
that good man, That defense is great.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
That's the thing.
Speaker 5 (33:09):
You have to grade that game on a curve, like
I know the Chiefs looked lethargic. I know they looked poor.
They got overwhelmed up front by a much better pass
rush than.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
What the Bills have.
Speaker 5 (33:19):
The Bills are solid, but the Texans are like top
five and and they're their outside corners are tremendous, so
they are very difficult to beat down the field, which
is why I said that was going to be a
low a dot game. I knew it was going to be,
it was this one could look a bit different. That's
why I still think there's there's a possibility that this
(33:42):
could get into old Chiefs Bills shootout mode. I actually
think that could happen here. I mean, I told I
think it's going to be a slower game, but I
think it's possible.
Speaker 3 (33:53):
Well, let's what it's kind of alluded to.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
If like Josh is gonna have the ball fifty times,
they scored fifty points the last time.
Speaker 3 (33:59):
These two teams played, right, like.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
In the total in that game, the market total was lower.
That was like forty four and a half total or
something like.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
If you're telling me the quarterbacks in this game, we're
gonna have the ball one hundred times, like it's gonna
be points, Like these guys are going to will their
team to points. So I definitely forty eight is is
up there. But I definitely like, I'm not betting against
these two guys. Look at last week with the Bill's
(34:29):
Ravens game, right, I had that cap dead wrong. But
it's just when you get two quarterbacks of that caliber,
it doesn't matter how poor Lamar Jackson plays in one
half he can just play magic for a full half
and get the ball downfield and score points. So I'm
over forty. It's definitely in play in this contest. Boy,
(34:51):
oh boy, Moe's gonna be playing something poker, like, are
you going to be actually in a tournament?
Speaker 3 (34:58):
Hopefully?
Speaker 5 (34:59):
Finger Last year during this game against the Ravens, I was,
I was in my chief stuff in enemy territory in Colorado,
and I think people thought I was like winning poker hands.
I kept yelling and getting bucked during that. It was
all it was all for big Chiefs plays against the Ravens.
(35:23):
So uh yeah, it's I mean, no poker hand is
gonna excite me like the Chiefs trying to go to
the super Bowl, So uh yeah, it was.
Speaker 1 (35:35):
It was great, man. I mean I hope so again.
Speaker 5 (35:38):
Last two years I've been there, and two years ago
was one of the funniest experiences I had. We were
we were I was Busto that day and we were
all in the sportsbook watching. There was this Bengals fan
in the front row. This guy's heart was broken.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Man.
Speaker 5 (35:55):
He he was just going through it. Every call, that
last call especially. I mean, this guy was just having
the toughest time man. So uh it sometimes it's it's
good to be the Evil Empire.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Sometimes Brett final thoughts, what will you be doing on Sunday?
What is the what is the viewing experience? Like Nicolson.
Speaker 4 (36:16):
Also, it's usually so my wife can't sit down during
Bill's games, just she can't physically sit down. She has
to be doing something in the kitchen or walking around
or like pacing. She's like the entire game, she's worried
about Josh Allen getting her. Doesn't care what the score is.
It's just is Josh Allen healthy? So uh, that's usually
(36:37):
and me trying to stay sane. I guess I'm just
I'm really nervous about this game, and I'm going to
be It's going to be a rough night if we
lose to Casey again in the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (36:52):
Get the pump kings ready, I can't even buy them.
I should have those stocked up.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
I don't know why I don't. But yeah, there will
be drinking. I honestly, win or lose, there's gonna be
drinking on Sunday. That's a guarantee.
Speaker 3 (37:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Well, six pm Eastern on Sunday, all eyes will be
on Arrowhead and will know who the NFC winner is.
Will it be once again the boring Philadelphia Eagles. I
gotta say, I grew up in Central Jersey. I know
a lot of Eagles fans. I'm sick and tired of it.
Tired Philly's won the World Series, Eagles have won a
(37:28):
Super Bowl. I'm tired of it. I'm much more, have
much more empathy for Brett. It's so funny. I'm in
this Jets discord and they just hate the Bills. They
have so much vitriol to the Bills, and I'm like,
we were never good with the Bills. At the same time,
I have like zero percent bad feelings towards towards Buffalo.
I would be very happy if Josh and my good
(37:49):
friend Brett were to enjoy this ride.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
But the Eagles, man, I.
Speaker 2 (37:53):
Just I will be even if I have money on Philadelphia,
I will be rooting for Jaye Daniels and the Commanders
win that game.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
How can you not.
Speaker 5 (38:02):
It's history. It's history on both sides. You got one side,
Chiefs going for three pete and you got the other side.
Literal rookie has never ever.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Gotten this far. I mean that's awesome.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
Yeah, it's I cannot wait for the football on Sunday,
and neither of these games look to be super one
side even with that that's six point spread, because we
know how explosive the Washington offense could be. Like we
said in that range of outcomes, Washington outright wins is
not that surprising. One more show the big game. We
(38:40):
back in your ears in a couple of weeks. Follow
these guys on Twitter at Brett Colson co double L
s O N at Donnie Underscore Peters and at Monora
and you double w R A H. I'm at rich
T Ryan. Best of luck in your betting ventures this weekend.
Enjoy the football. Only three more games left, PA, Talk
to you soon.
Speaker 1 (39:01):
Cast
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