January 15, 2025 • 44 mins
All eyes are on Baltimore and Buffalo, but The Collective are eying fireworks in the other conference.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
And i'lcome back to grist Er Cambele, the only podcast
that puts its money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
rich Ron, and I'm joined by the insire collective of
the Disciple, Brett Coulson, Donnie DP Peters and the resident
Moose himself mo Nowara. If you're watching this on YouTube,
(00:32):
please like the video and subscribe to the channel Listeners,
rate and review on your podcaster of choice five stars only,
like Trent Richardson, Who's a man I bring up because
I keep hearing steam for Ryan Grigson to be the
next general manager of my fighting. Ryan grig a man
(01:00):
who spent a first round pick traded it to the
Browns for Trent Richardson also used a first on Pete Werner,
a linebacker Philip dor Set and was so bad at
constructing a roster that he forced Andrew Luck into retirement
in his twenties. So please, please, please, if anybody at
(01:24):
one Jets Drive in Floram Park, New Jersey is listening
to the sound of my voice, do not hire Ryan
Grigson to be the general manager of our franchise. Decent
week for the Collective last week, save for one game
which was a big nut punch for both the Moose
(01:44):
and the Disciple. It was the Green Bay Packers and
it was one of those where as soon as they
fumbled the kickoff, it was pretty evident. Just the worst
Harbinger that you could ask for couldn't get anything going.
It's not like the Eagles played well in that game,
struggled to move the ball. Jalen Hurts was as poor
(02:06):
as we discussed, but it just didn't matter. Jordan lov
couldn't get anything going and they could not dig themselves
out of that early hole. This is a tenth weekend
for again both Brett and mo because their teams are
playing for a chance to play each other in the
AFC Championship. I think it'll be a little more squeaky
(02:29):
bum up in Harsher Park for Brett's Buffalo Bills. Because
we start with most Kansas City Chiefs who are playing
host to the Houston Texans. They are as big as
ten point favorites on a very influential offshore book. It
(02:50):
is an expensive ten. I saw as low as eight yesterday,
so there's some steam coming in on Kansas City total
of forty two. I've seen that as low as forty
one and a half as well, And nobody has come
to me with a very strong opinion on this game,
So we will kick it off with you, Mo. This
(03:10):
is your Kansas City Chiefs. I think we're all pretty
confident that they'll be able to win outright against a
Texans team that has been lack lubster for the majority
of the season. But will they win by margin as
this spread is indicating, and a lot of the support
from people with influential money might be indicating as well.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Yeah, the market not excited about that twenty point win
last week, I think rightfully. So. I mean I don't
think the Texans played a particularly good game. I think
the Chargers just sucked and yeah, the defense was pretty good,
but the offense was still pretty sloppy and shitty. I
(03:54):
just find this game fascinating in the sense of these
teams just played a month ago and the Chiefs were
four point favorites. How did we get to ten? I mean,
it's not really ten. That was kind of fake. I
can't believe you did that. It's like minus one thirty
two or something. Yeah, like this is still kind of
(04:15):
a crazy move. I know that the Chiefs are playing
better and obviously they pretty much got a double by
so it's a good situation for them. They also get
Jalen Watson back, and you have a Houston receiving corps
that is decimated by injury. Even Robert Woods is hurt.
I mean, I don't know what they got left at
(04:37):
this point, so I'm pretty concerned that they're not going
to be able to move the ball. The only real
advantage the Texans have is probably upfront on defense, where
they are very very good. But then you have Patrick Mahomes.
He is not justin Herbert. Last time these two teams
(04:57):
played forty seven drop back, he took one sack, so
he's pretty good at midiating that advantage. All that's really
left is Nico Collins. I don't think that should be
close to enough. That said, it's still a lot of
points in a low total, I mean kind of rightfully.
So I think when I look at the way the
(05:18):
Chiefs are going to play here, Texans corners are very
very tough to beat. Deep I'm gonna probably see close
your ears Matt Clark a very low a dot here
from the Chiefs offense. So I expect a lot of
dinking and dunking. I don't expect the Texans to do
a lot of great things on offense. The one spot
(05:40):
maybe to watch is if DJ Humphries. I'm seeing him
back first string at left tackle. I'm guessing he's going
to have a short leash. So if the Chiefs are
struggling early and he's getting wrecked and he gets swapped out,
that might be a live betting opportunity for the Chiefs.
But outside of that, not much as interesting for me here.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
They won't have Deontae Johnson either.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Will not punted off on Deontay Johnson eleven to one
touchdown this week.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Claimed by the Ravens today. The Raven's always ten thousand
steps away trying to improve their compensatory formula when it
comes to free agency next season because by rule, he
can't even be a part of the playoff roster, So
Ravens basically just making sure that Deontay can't play for
another team and they can get to the maximum comp
(06:31):
formula for him being on their roster. The last time
the Kansas City Chiefs played football and tried was Christmas Day.
By the time this kicks off, those guys will have
had twenty three days off. This is like the ultimate
Rest versus Russ argument. But when it comes to Andy
(06:53):
Reid in preparation, I'm going to tend to think that
the Rest is going to have the advantage in this spot. Donnie,
I have to pass the ball to you because you
have one of our favorite bets. Uh, it is an
all timer. You're darn gamble. Fans will know what is coming, Donnie.
What should we be wagering on in this contest?
Speaker 3 (07:15):
Mahomes over rushing. It's playoff time, baby, let's go. What
are we waiting for?
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Come on?
Speaker 3 (07:22):
This number is twenty three and a half. It should
be thirty three and a half. This is Mahomes when
it matters. He's had, like Rich said, like six months
off to heal up that ankle. The guy's gonna be
ready to go, and all the better if the Texans
can put some pressure on him. Great scramble away, Mahomes,
Let's go.
Speaker 4 (07:39):
Doesn't this always cash in like the first quarter?
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Doesn't He's just like.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
And then he's just gone. And Mahomes is one of
those guys where this is like an underrated part of
his rushing. He like gets to the sidelines and you
think he's gonna go out and then like the defender
kind of backs off because they don't want to hit
Mahomes because that's gonna be a flag. But then he
sneaks back in for like five more yards. He does
it all the time, all the time.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
He does the little tight rope sideways and then leaves
the ball forward. It gets three extra yards. I think.
On the other side, CJ. Stroud a guy who didn't
tuck and run at all last season. He had fifty
rushing yards last week. His alt fifty over this week
is fifteen to one. Like, we should be betting CJ.
Stroud rushing ladder this week because.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
I didn't think he could. I didn't think he could
run like that. I think he blew me away.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
I think he's always been capable. He's just and this
is kind of why I liked him as a prospect.
He is very much a I'm going to stay in
the pocket, keep my eyes downfield, and deliver, which is
ultimately what you need to win in this league. That's
why Lamar's gotten so much better. The better he's become
a pocket passer, because offense is about explosive place right
and breaking pocket and running. You can only create so
(08:53):
many explosives by doing that, but by throwing the ball
you can. It's much easier to create explosives that way.
And yeah, I mean it's the playoffs. Stroud might have
to make a play, he might have to break pocket,
and he's athletic, and we should be looking at his
rushing totals as well. Well. You said gun to head,
you like the over in this spot, and I tend
(09:13):
to agree with you as well.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
I was.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
I don't want to say Sloan was okay last week,
is what I'm trying to get at. He mixed in
a lot more passing on first down than he had
previous weeks in the season. The Houston offense was humming
at a level that didn't look like they had previously.
And I think more importantly out of all of this
(09:40):
is number twelve was banged up a lot during the season,
and Nico looks fully healthy. And when that guy's on
the field, the explosives will be available for Houston. Even
with someone like Bobby Wood sidelined and some of the
depth of this receiver group in question, I think the
Texans will be able to put together some scoring drives.
I think I am interested in that over as well.
(10:04):
But honestly, the quarterback rushing for both of these guys
is is my most interested look in this contest. Let's
get to the nightcap on Saturday. Let's get to a
game that there's actually some strong dissension amongst the collective
because the Washington formerly racial slurs, formerly football team now
(10:27):
Communists travel to Detroit. The Lions are Can I say
ten point favorites? Am I allowed to say ten point
favorites in this spot?
Speaker 2 (10:35):
And this spot is closer, but I don't think it's
quite there, but.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
It's still pretty an expensive ten once again seeing some
nines and nine and a half as well. The Lions
had the rest. The Commanders went down to Tampa Bay
and took care of business against the Buccaneers, and there
was a fervor within the GGI discord bit dot ly
slash discord. Move to get on the commis to bet
(11:02):
the commis on the money bet line. But Brett is
here to pour cold water all over that, because somehow,
some way, the man who was denigrated, Man Campbell, more
than anybody in front of microphones, is out here telling
us to bet Max Alts on the Detroit Lions. In
(11:27):
this game.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Let me start by saying I think this game has
the hot the widest range of outcomes, and one of
those is that the Lions just blow the doors off
this fraudulent Commanders team that has run right way above
expectation against soft opposition all season, including last week against Tampa.
A hand off fumble in Tampa's own zone let Washington
back into the game, and they won despite being diced
(11:51):
up by Baker, just like they've been diced up all season.
The Bucks only threw the ball eighteen times last week,
which is inexplicable, but that kind of plays into this
cap like Tampa's not a good football team, lousey coaching staff,
horrific pass defense. Like good riddance Tampa. But now the
Commedye's getting a real test against an offense that is
(12:11):
extremely difficult to stop. They're finally taking a seat at
the adult table, and there is no booster seat. The
other outcome is that the Lions defense crumbles against a
very athletic quarterback and it golf pisss down his own
leg and can't do enough to win a football game.
I think it's more likely we see a blow out
(12:33):
here than a Washington win, So I've got the Lions
minus twenty and a half on DraftKings plus three to
twenty two. We know Dan Campbell does not step off
the gas, and the Lions should be able to do
whatever they want in this game. So that is my
play here. But I could certainly, I think you can
(12:54):
make a good case for Washington money line too, and
I look forward to hearing hearing that you guys.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Boll Yeah, Moo's got the alts on the other side,
not all the way to money line. In his account,
he's taken the traditional seven and a half. I believe
did you grab that when it opened or did you
grab that as an alt as well. I'll let you
take the floor.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Yeah, I'm looking at alts now. The best prices I
found were on fan Duel. Plus seven and a half
is plus one oh six, plus three and a half
is plus two fifteen. Like Brett said, very high variance game,
high powered offenses, beatable defenses, and two coaching staffs that
will be going for every fourth and short. So we
(13:36):
could see some drives that there's going to be a
fork in the road where it could either be a
touchdown or a turnover. This is going to happen multiple times,
and yeah, I think that plays into alts for sure.
I like from Washington. From Washington's end, I just like
their matchup against this line's defense. Obviously, things went well
(14:00):
for the Lions against the Vikings. That being said, look
at the three games before that they played against decent offenses.
They allowed thirty four, forty eight, and forty one to
the last three good offenses they faced before that. So yeah,
I think you know the Lions will be running the ball.
(14:21):
That's likely going to work. Washington is poor against the run.
Only thing they're very good at is getting pressure on
the quarterback. But they also like to play man. That
is not going to work very well in this game.
Jared Goff gains like fifty points of passer rating when
he faces man, and he's been better when he's been
(14:41):
blitzed according to PFF grading this year, So I'm not
confident about that side of the ball. I'm tended to
parlay Washington with the over in this spot because I
don't really see that many situations where they don't allow
a lot of points. So I think they're gonna have
to be matching score for score slash, playing catchup slash
(15:02):
relying on turnovers. I don't really see them forcing a
lot of punts here, so I kind of like Washington.
Maybe Alt's parlayed with the over. I'm gonna look into
that what kind of prices you can get because I
don't see their defense having any success here other than
random pressure blitzes that can make golf make a mistake.
I mean, they still have a way better quarterback though,
(15:24):
like Jayden Daniels is so much better than Jared Goff.
I mean, I know Jared Goff is thriving and having
another good season in a great ecosystem, but the better
quarterback is getting infinite points here. So that's the side
I have to take. And again back to success in
the pocket. Those numbers that you're setting against the blitz,
(15:46):
it's against the blitz that last week he made that
throat to Scary Terry. It's against the all out Engay
J eight blitz in Cincinnati night game, rookie on the
road that he's making an insane.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Throw into the end zone. He's not like breaking pocket
and running. He is playing at dare I say an
elite level as a passer already? And you stole the
words out of my mouth when you said parlaying with
the over, mo, I think if you like Washington here,
you should find a way to same game parlay them
(16:20):
with some sort of offense success, whether it's them team
wise or just in the game as well, Like moneyline
plus three sixty. Yeah, that's nice, but it's such a
correlated parlay with the over. It's a very correlated parlay
with Jaden Daniels over his rushing number or Jaden Daniels
not to throw an interception, Like, there are very correlative
(16:43):
ways you can get to plus one thousand instead of
just taking the plus three sixty on the money line
with Washington. And I think in a game where the
total is fifty five, those routes are much more much
You're gonna have much more success on those as opposed
to just taking the points in this game, Because, like
(17:04):
you and Brett just said, there is such a wide
range of outcomes in this game that, like Washington winning
isn't that crazy. So just sitting back and taking nine
points at minus one ten just doesn't seem like the
right way to attack this game. Yeah, if you take
Kami's money line like it could absolutely plow up in
your face. Brett's alts the Lion's cash. But that's fine
(17:28):
because it is a reasonable amount of the outcomes that
Washington wins this game. To make that bet as opposed
to just taking the points, sitting there and hoping that
Washington somehow backdoors in this game, that strategy doesn't really
doesn't really sit with me. So this is, I mean,
(17:49):
this is the game I'm most excited for this weekend.
I think I think, I honestly think Bill's Ravens is
going to be like this low scoring kind of sloburrknocker game.
I think it's gonna be tense, and obviously there's stake there,
but I think this game could be absolute fireworks for
and again for what you said, Mo, You've got We've
got two coaching staffs here. Credit to dan Quinn. Maybe
(18:10):
it's the front office, the ownership group that went in
there and just again Clockwork Orange. They just opened dan
Quinn's eyes and they just made him look at data
like these two teams are just going for it, right,
Like every time they can push a one percent edge,
they're going to So yeah, I just think the swings
(18:30):
in this game, like if a team that's another thing.
And I'm going on a bit of a ran here, Like,
if either of these teams goes down ten, I think
there's a chance to just put a small share on
the team that's trailing to win the game, because like,
that's how crazy this game could be and how much
variance could be in this game. Like I think the
swings in this game contest could be absolutely wild from
(18:52):
both of these teams. So I think that's something else
to look out for as well, especially if the team
that goes up ten, if it's like variants, right, if
it's just like a weird fumble that bounces into somebody's
gullet and scoops and scores. Obviously, if the Lions come
out and are like blowing doors and Washington can't move
the ball, then yeah, you probably don't want to fire
that live bet on Washington. But if there's something weird
(19:14):
that happens, a weird bounce, weird tip, then I think
there's an opportunity to make a live wager here on
either team and just lean into the amount of variants
that that could be coming in this contest. I'm excited
about I'm pumped DP. You went the traditional route. You
have this the nine already have. I convinced you to
add some some moneyline or something else.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
So, I mean I talked about in the discord that
I think, you know, there's certainly a world where the
Lions win by forty. I mean, you know, this is
just that type of game. That said, I kind of
just wanted to lock in the plus nine as somewhat
of a safety net, and then going to what you
were speaking towards Rich, this is a game where I think,
(19:55):
you know, Saturday morning, maybe Friday night or whatever, I'm
just gonna build out a bunch of different same game
parts and just have some fun with it. You know,
like if if the Lions do blow doors, okay, can
I get some crazy all rushing overs or this and that?
Like build out all this kind of weird sort of
stuff and just just shoot for the moon. In a
lot of ways, that said always sort of just have
that safety net, because I was like, you know, I
(20:16):
could see some some late money coming in on Washington
and people think things are getting out of aligned with with
the Lions here, So I'll just lock in that plus nine.
I'll go from there, and then again I'll just have
some fun with it. In terms of these same game
parlays because you know you mentioned Jade Daniels over rushing.
I really like that too, especially if this defense is
able to get after him. Like I think he's just
the type of guy who's gonna start laying it all
on the line, kind of like Mahomes does once it
(20:38):
gets to the playoffs. Well, the benefit of Jadon Daniels
is he's an elite runner. He doesn't seem to care
about really getting hit. He avoids like getting hit really hard,
so that is a benefit. He's young, he's spry. The
kid can move, man, So if he can get out
and get after it, great, like awesome. So yeah, same
game parlays for me. I'm gonna be coming in late
on that and just again have some fun with.
Speaker 4 (20:57):
It kind of could I There will be a zach
Ertz touchdown prop in those Yeah, probably two.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
You know who knows, right capping for zach er Smoe.
The key is in there, let's go come on most
several weeks ahead on zach Ertz becoming an absolute goat
once again, an interesting one. I haven't looked at it.
I'll be interested to see how David Montgomery is being
lined in these markets because he was a full participate
(21:27):
in practice somehow, some way, so something interesting if you
like the angle of Brett's blowout, something like montgomery last touchdown,
if he's not being lined normally in the market is
something of interest because he is their goal line back traditionally, though,
that's something to take into account as well.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
I got one. I got one. If you want to
get really spicy with the SGPS Washington money line with
Detroit's team total over thirty one and a half is
plus twenty four hundred on decays.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
I mean, if you're if you're gonna get to the over,
I mean the Lions, it's this is not gonna be
Commander's forty lions twenty one. You know, Like that's pretty spicy.
I like that. Mo Good shout the other NFC tilt.
Los Angeles Rams made Sam Darnold look at ghosts for
(22:24):
a second consecutive week, probably cost my guy like fifty
million dollars, and now they have to travel to Philadelphia
to take on the aforementioned E A. G. L Ees Eagles.
I'm seeing six right now. I saw as low as
five and a half. I am seeing market support for
(22:46):
the Rams. Majority of the tickets on LA I'm hearing
a lot of people talk about the Rams. I'm hearing
a lot of excitement after hell Will their defense played
against Minnesota, And I think people are kind of cool
on Philly after their performance last week. You've got aj
Brown a DNP here on Wednesday. You've got Aj Brown
(23:10):
reading books instead of running routes on the field. So
I think this game, by game time, I could see
this movie closer towards LA. So I think it's very
sharp that Brett if you've jumped out now and grabbed
the money bet line early in the week, because I
think you might be losing out on Savalley if you wait,
(23:31):
Brett talk about the scout for us.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
Yeah, this is really just me doubling down on the Eagles.
Fade I said at the discord last week. I can't
I can't believe the Packers blew this. They had every
opportunity against a pitifole Jalen Hurts, but the turnovers ended
them straight away. That first kickoff set the tone and
then of course their entire receiving corps goes down and
all credit to Josh Jacobs. He put the team out
(23:55):
his back though. But like you can't beat the Eagles,
like that it's It was really tough watching knowing that
the Eagles were were gettable last week. They absolutely were.
Philly's defense did play fantastic, certainly not taking anything away
from them, But now they get Matthew Stafford, who was
tremendous last week. Was that an outlier or is his
(24:20):
playoff Stafford just different than regular season Stafford. He looked
revived last week. The Rams looked awesome, and I like
them here on the money line plus two thirty five
on FanDuel. I'm selling everything on Hurtz. I have a
hard time seeing this team going far with the way
he's playing post concussion. Maybe he does look better this
week and I'm just lighting money on fire again, But
(24:41):
if the Eagles do fall behind in a game, I
don't trust this guy to make plays, even with these
weapons like the Rams. How many sacks did they have?
They like nine sacks last week. Obviously a much stiffer
test here against the Eagles offensive line, but if they
can pressure Hurts, I think they just win this game.
So I really really like la here.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
I saw some ridiculous that I'm trying to pull it
up now. I was able to grab his playoff record
real quick but I saw something like Stafford is like
eighteen and three in December and beyond with the Rams.
I know he's five and one in the playoffs with
the Rams because they won four straight games and route
to the Super Bowl, lost their only game last year,
(25:21):
and they're won to zero this year. So is playoff
Stafford a thing? And he looked He did not look
like mo the guy who went out on Christmas and
could not complete forward passes against the Arizona Cardinals. He
was absolutely dicing up everything that Flores threw at him.
That being said, it's a thirty seven percent chance of
(25:44):
rain in this contest, you have a slight lean towards
the under in this game.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Yeah, I'm concerned about Stafford being outdoors in the cold.
But at the same time, you know, I do think
the Rams plus six and a half is it bet
I would be making if I wasn't already invested in
a Rams future. At thirty to one, I'm just riding
with that right now. So uh, just gonna hope for
the best. But if I didn't have that, I'd likely
(26:11):
be on the Rams at six and a half. I
think the line is a bit too high. It just
all comes down to Jalen Hurts. For me, it all
comes down to what we get from Jalen Hurts. If
that was a post concussion Hayes and he shook out
of that and he's his normal self, Yeah, this could
be another Philly w like the last time when they
destroyed the Rams. But if he's not, then I think
(26:35):
the Rams win this game out right. I mean, because yeah,
Saquon went for two fifty five on them last time.
But if they don't fear anything from Jalen Hurts, They're
just gonna load the box without any fear of the
pass and just overwhelm this running game with bodies. I mean,
I think you pretty much saw the Packers do that
last week. I think it was concerning that the coaching
(26:56):
staff didn't seem to have any confidence in Jalen Hurts
any like third down over eight yards. They were just
like running the ball and punting. That was extremely concerning
for me. I do like that this is I think
a good matchup for this LA offense as well. I mean,
that's not why they lost the game last time. They
lost the game because they give up tw hundred and
fifty five yards to Saquon Barkley. Philly does not pressure
(27:19):
the passer, They don't blitz. We know those are the
weaknesses of Matt Stafford now that he cannot move. I
saw something crazy last week that I brought up on
the show with Matt Brown because I just have never
I didn't know PFF grades went this slow. Stafford when
pressured is a twenty nine this year. I didn't know
(27:39):
they went that low. That's like, this is like a
sat don't you get You get a grade of forty
for writing your name correctly and filling everything out, don't you?
I mean forty is like the lowest. I thought. He
has a twenty nine grade if he's pressured, and he
has like a ninety two grade when he's not pressured.
So Philly, we know what they We've talked about this
(27:59):
last week with Fangio. He wants to sit back in
his zone. He wants to make you check down, and
he wants to make you run the ball. And I
think Matt Stafford can make the type of throws that
Jordan Love was missing last week. And this running game,
while it is not an explosive running game, it's a
high success rate running game, and that is what you
(28:21):
need against Vic Fangio's scheme.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
Yeah, and not to mention in that game last week,
the Packers entered it without Christian Watson. Then Romeo Dobbs
slams his head into the turf again, Jaden Reed shattered
his arm close to the end of the contest. And
you've got Bo Melton and something he out there running
(28:45):
routes and the most high leverage spot of the season. Granted,
hats off, literal had off to the Packers for continuing
to try to play football. Whereas what were the Vikings
doing on Monday nights? They're in the quarter they literally stopped.
Joe Buck was beside himself. He literally said on the broadcast,
(29:06):
they know they're down eighteen, right, this is a disgusting performance. So, yeah,
this is a Rams team. We've heard about Puka all year.
The scumbag Cup showed up and made a catch last week.
Let's hope he can get more than one in this contest.
And Stafford is that dude. So yeah, I'm with you, guys.
(29:26):
I'm on Rams here. I think RAMS moneyline is a
good shout And Tayalen Hurts is just going to have
to show me that he can complete forward passes in
a big spot until then, I'm believing in what I'm
seeing from Chris Shula and this Rams defense. Every time
the Rams have played in a big spot this year,
They've created a ton of pressure and the guys on
(29:49):
the boundary have been tough as nails in man coverage.
So I'm believing with Chrishula is selling right now, and
I think the Rams are fully capable of winning this game,
the final game of the weekend, the game everybody is
excited for, maybe except for our guy. Recall the Bills
(30:09):
make me wanna.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Terrified.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
You were in person at MMG Bank Stadium. You left early.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
It was a very one of the reads of the
year for grid Iron Gamble.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
It was a very tough scene for the Bills in
that contest. Now we have the rematch. The Buffalo Bills
opened as short favorites that quickly flipped to the Ravens
being short favorites. That's where we stand now. Total of
fifty one and a half, pretty much a fifty to
fifty split ticket wise, very Buffalo conditions save for the wind.
(30:47):
The wind looks calm, thirteen degrees, twenty five percent chance
of snow. Lamar will have probably three scullies on for
this game, Brett, take us through first your feelings as
a fan, and then take us through your cap for
this contest.
Speaker 4 (31:07):
Well, yeah, a matchup nightmare for the Bills. When these
teams played back in September, the Ravens were on our car,
they were by number one play because it is a
horrible setup for the Bills. I mean back then, so
back then they were where they were without Milano, they
were dealing with injuries in the secondary, and that game
played out kind of exactly how we expected, Right, The
Ravens just played bully ball with Henry and pounded us
(31:29):
for four quarters. I can see this playing out exactly
the same way. Buffalo does not have a good defense,
and certainly not one built to contain this style of
rushing offense, like once backs get into that second level.
The Bills haven't been able to stop anybody, so I
have major concerns there. But the Bills have been so
dominant at home it is a real advantage. And it's
(31:53):
like you said, it's going to be cold on Sunday night.
Can Lamar be trusted in those conditions? It's hard for
me to get to Ravens favored going into this environment,
but the matchups are just kind of sticking there in
the back of my mind. I can't get away from that.
So this is a stay away from me. I honestly
don't know what's going to happen in this game. I
just know that the next seventy two ninety six hours
(32:17):
are going to be stressful.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Donnie grabs a very sharp tease when this touch to
one and a half. You got the Bills up to
seven and a half and you pair them with the
Kansas City Chiefs. Talk about that cap DP.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
Yeah, I mean, listen on the Chiefs. I got them
down to two and a half. And I'm just worried
in general about the Chiefs being able to stretch games out,
which I think we've at least I've been worried about
all season long, and I think a lot of people have.
You know, they're not really hanging these big numbers, and
even though the Texans are pretty devoid of weapons right now,
I think it probably do enough to keep within one score.
(32:55):
So that's my side there. I Ultimately I have a
lot of confidence in playoff Chiefs playoff Mahome Andy Reid,
coming off a lot of rest, just being able to
win that game right here. I mean I have trouble
like Brett getting to Ravens minus and yeah, there is
a world where BULLI Ball Baltimore comes out and just
(33:15):
runs over Buffalo, right, that could happen. The Ravens are
a very good team, well coached, you know, have a
lot of power, all that sort of stuff. Like Brett said,
I'm worried about the Bills defense to an extent. I
don't know, man, this Bill's team. They feel awesome, like
it's their year type of awesome. This is in Buffalo.
Josh Allen is doing the damn thing Like I don't.
(33:39):
I think this one is super close. I think the
under of I think I saw fifty two is very
much in play here. And being able to tease this
up to more than a touchdown seven and a half
seems like free money. I mean, like, you know, I
almost want to do another part of the tease and
just have Chiefs Bills in the under, you know. And
(34:00):
I know you're not necessarily supposed to tease over unders,
but I mean, why not, right if I'm just kind
of feeling so good about this teaser here. So yeah,
I don't see how the Ravens ultimately blow them out.
Speaker 4 (34:13):
Here.
Speaker 3 (34:13):
Yeah, the Ravens could win this game. I would agree there,
but I don't think it's gonna be a runaway. I
think the Bills are ultimately too good even if they're down.
I think you've seen in the past essentially Josh Allen
can put this team on his damn back and come back.
Like he can do that too, right, So yeah, I
think there's gonna be a lot of struggles for Baltimore
(34:34):
in this type of weather. I never really like taking
Baltimore coming off such a big, dominant win like last week,
Like this is not the Steelers, Okay, this is not
like the Bills are in a different league than the Steelers. Okay,
So the Bills can score, the Bills can play tough,
the Bills can go blow for blow with the Ravens
should it come to that. But you know, seven and
(34:55):
a half points in a game that I think is
gonna be much lower scoring than people anticipate. Rich going
back to what you said, I think people think this
game is gonna be the you know, forty to thirty,
and it's really going to be the Lions and the Commanders, right,
this is gonna be like twenty to seventeen and people
are gonna in a way, it's probably gonna be a
really good game, but there might be some people that
(35:15):
are like, where's all the scoring when it's seven to
nothing at halftime or something, you know, something ridiculous like that.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
The other thing about playing under in this game I'm
seeing fifty one and a half right now is if
these two teams do come out kind of like a
heavyweight fight, throw up a three to nothing frame in
the first quarter, you're going to get a chance at
a very meaty middle if you have live options available
to you, where the live total could plummet with some
(35:41):
inactivity in the first quarter. So I think that's that's
another angle that you can play with this game. And yeah,
I think that. I think there's going to just be
a lot of feeling out in this game. That the
one thing that everybody is pointing to is just the
Ravens turnaround on defense starting in the middle of the season.
They are tops in so many categories if you pull
(36:03):
the slider to week nine, and they've performed extremely well
on the back half of the season. That being said,
I just I'm so questionable about this Ravens offense, even
if Say Flowers comes back, it's an injured guy in
the freezing cold. I don't think people realize how much
(36:23):
cold affects like injury recovery. Like if this dude is
sniffed once, he's gonna have like the most miserable three
hours of his life. So Nosey Flowers, if so a
banged up Zay Flowers, and then it's Lamar in the cold.
So I just don't think this is going to be
the explosive Ravens offense that everyone is so accustomed to. Which, yeah,
(36:46):
I think everything in this game just points to under
fifty one and a half. For me, we put a
pin on this night game in Orchard part. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
I also like the under. I'm just I didn't I
need somebody to push me into betting it since I'm
so terrified of betting it under with these quarterbacks. But
I think you guys are doing it. I think if
you like the over, the player you want to look
for to me that I think could be making a
very correlated parlay here. If you want to make an
(37:17):
SGP is just I think it's got to be a
bigger shot Bateman game. We know these Bills safeties are beatable.
I think that's the weak point on this defense. So
especially with Zay, I don't think he's going to play.
It looks like he's a long shot. Sounds like he's
a long shot, and even if he does play, it
doesn't seem like he's going to be close to one
hundred percent. I think the Ravens need to get a
(37:38):
bigger shot Bateman game if they're going to score a
lot of points here, because like Brett said, all they
did was pound the rock last time. I don't know
if that's going to work this time. Like Brett said,
the Bills defense is healthier. All the metrics are telling
me the Ravens are the better team. They have better metrics,
they played in a tougher division. All the numbers are
telling me they're better than the Bills. The Bills also
(38:00):
thrived off turnovers this year, especially on defense. Lamar Jackson
has the lowest turnover worthy play percent in the NFL
according to PFF's tracking, So that might not be there
for them, but it's like you said with Jalen hurts Man,
I gotta see it. I got to see Lamar do
(38:21):
something in the January game outside cold weather against a
good team I'm not I mean blessed Houston Souls last year.
I'm not counting them as a good team. I'm talking
about really good teams. You know. It's like Draymond Green said,
there's eighty two game players and there's sixteen game players,
(38:42):
and everything we've seen from Lamar Jackson and I think
this could be legitimate because he's a very difficult player
to prepare for, but when everybody's working overtime in the playoffs,
it's easier to prepare for him. Everything we've seen from
him says he's an eighty two game player. So I
got to see it from him against a team like
Buffalo until I'm going to believe this. So I know
(39:03):
the numbers are telling me Ravens, so I understand why
the market is going that way. I'm not gonna do it,
so I'll likely be on the under.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Like you guys, what a game. I'm glad this is
the nightcap on Sunday. I can't wait. I can't wait
for this game. I know, I know I said that
that Commi's Lions, Commy's Lions is like it's almost like
a circus act. Like I really think that it's gonna
be a wild ask game.
Speaker 3 (39:31):
Tommy's Lions reminds me of the game you went to
Chiefs Rams Chiefs Ramsey.
Speaker 1 (39:35):
That was just a shit show. I mean it was
track me up and down. Yeah. That was welterweight right
or whatever? Midweight flywaight. That was just two guys that
know they can't kill each other. That they're just landing
punch after punch because they're just not strong enough to
kill the other guy. Whereas I think the last one
to score wins exactly. I think I think Ravens Bills
is going to be a lot more feeling out, a
(39:55):
lot more you know, big punches. How many of them
are going to land? Who knows?
Speaker 2 (40:01):
And just there's something special about two elite quarterbacks playing
for legacy. Yeah, and these guys are there, like Patrick
Mahomes could be in this game next week against either
one of those guys and lose and it doesn't matter.
He's already got three Super Bowls. These guys need it, man,
they need it, and one of them is going down
in the second round and that's painful.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Oh my god. It'll be the longest offseason for whoever
loses this game, because can they win with ex quarterback
what about this? Is this coach handingsta Is I mean Brett.
If the Bills go down here, how much confidence can
you have in McDermott coming back? Everyone loves There's no,
(40:42):
There's no. I mean, I don't know how bad Josh
would have to play for people to be upset with
Josh Allen in this game, but the McDermott hot seat,
at least from a fans perspective, it'll be Donnie Calin
from the parking lot again.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
Trade Josh, trade him.
Speaker 4 (41:01):
Then McDermott's stuff. I've actually come around the McDermott a
lot this year because he finally has adapted to the
the in games. And he still makes a lot of
stupid mistakes, but it's nothing like years ago when he
would I mean so many, so many things, especially in
the playoffs, so many things trying to kickfield goals to
beat mahomes, like the obviously the thirteen seconds game like that.
(41:23):
That kind of stuff I feel like is behind us.
I'm hopeful that he can put together a good game
plan this week and it just yeah, like most said,
I mean this, this game is massive for Josh Allen.
Aside from the MVP stuff, I don't think he cares
about that like this. This is more about like we
(41:45):
have to get paidback against the Ravens here and have
another shot at the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (41:50):
You know, it's funny, Donnie, you bring up that Rams
Chiefs game. There aren't outs to the Rams hosting the
NFC Championship game next week against the Commies, and I
don't know I would. I would have to seriously consider
finding my way up to Inglewood for that game. And
(42:12):
it's weird too because I think they'll have to make
it the late game, which is funny, or else. It's like,
if they make it the early game, it's like a
twelve thirty local kick for the championship. So very bizarre
spot there. But we'll have to look into that. If that,
if that parlay comes home, all right, can't wait, can't
(42:34):
believe there's only two more podcasts after this conference championship
and the big Game. And as much as the Jet
fan and me and the hat on top of my
head tells me not to, I'm really rooting for you, Brett.
I like this Bills team. I know it's sacrilege to
say as a Jets fan, as an AFC East Division guy,
but the Josh Allen. It's just he's just that dude,
(42:57):
so I would I'd love to see him get his
shot against Mahomes again.
Speaker 3 (43:03):
In air needed injected in my own your whole social
media persona needs Josh. I have so many receipts are
coming for you. I have to delete your account. I
have so many receipts.
Speaker 1 (43:18):
If the Ravens lose this game, I I'll stop the
block out my entire calendar on Monday to go through
everybody that went after me from Ravens Twitter. If if
the Bills end up ending their season on Sunday, all right,
follow these guys on Twitter at Brickholson CEO double L
s O n Out Downy Underscore Peters and at Monawara
and U double w A R A H. I'm at
(43:40):
rich t Ryan. Enjoy the football this weekend. Only three
weekends left, people, so enjoy every second until then.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
Peace out,
And i'lcome back to grist Er Cambele, the only podcast
that puts its money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
rich Ron, and I'm joined by the insire collective of
the Disciple, Brett Coulson, Donnie DP Peters and the resident
Moose himself mo Nowara. If you're watching this on YouTube,
(00:32):
please like the video and subscribe to the channel Listeners,
rate and review on your podcaster of choice five stars only,
like Trent Richardson, Who's a man I bring up because
I keep hearing steam for Ryan Grigson to be the
next general manager of my fighting. Ryan grig a man
(01:00):
who spent a first round pick traded it to the
Browns for Trent Richardson also used a first on Pete Werner,
a linebacker Philip dor Set and was so bad at
constructing a roster that he forced Andrew Luck into retirement
in his twenties. So please, please, please, if anybody at
(01:24):
one Jets Drive in Floram Park, New Jersey is listening
to the sound of my voice, do not hire Ryan
Grigson to be the general manager of our franchise. Decent
week for the Collective last week, save for one game
which was a big nut punch for both the Moose
(01:44):
and the Disciple. It was the Green Bay Packers and
it was one of those where as soon as they
fumbled the kickoff, it was pretty evident. Just the worst
Harbinger that you could ask for couldn't get anything going.
It's not like the Eagles played well in that game,
struggled to move the ball. Jalen Hurts was as poor
(02:06):
as we discussed, but it just didn't matter. Jordan lov
couldn't get anything going and they could not dig themselves
out of that early hole. This is a tenth weekend
for again both Brett and mo because their teams are
playing for a chance to play each other in the
AFC Championship. I think it'll be a little more squeaky
(02:29):
bum up in Harsher Park for Brett's Buffalo Bills. Because
we start with most Kansas City Chiefs who are playing
host to the Houston Texans. They are as big as
ten point favorites on a very influential offshore book. It
(02:50):
is an expensive ten. I saw as low as eight yesterday,
so there's some steam coming in on Kansas City total
of forty two. I've seen that as low as forty
one and a half as well, And nobody has come
to me with a very strong opinion on this game,
So we will kick it off with you, Mo. This
(03:10):
is your Kansas City Chiefs. I think we're all pretty
confident that they'll be able to win outright against a
Texans team that has been lack lubster for the majority
of the season. But will they win by margin as
this spread is indicating, and a lot of the support
from people with influential money might be indicating as well.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
Yeah, the market not excited about that twenty point win
last week, I think rightfully. So. I mean I don't
think the Texans played a particularly good game. I think
the Chargers just sucked and yeah, the defense was pretty good,
but the offense was still pretty sloppy and shitty. I
(03:54):
just find this game fascinating in the sense of these
teams just played a month ago and the Chiefs were
four point favorites. How did we get to ten? I mean,
it's not really ten. That was kind of fake. I
can't believe you did that. It's like minus one thirty
two or something. Yeah, like this is still kind of
(04:15):
a crazy move. I know that the Chiefs are playing
better and obviously they pretty much got a double by
so it's a good situation for them. They also get
Jalen Watson back, and you have a Houston receiving corps
that is decimated by injury. Even Robert Woods is hurt.
I mean, I don't know what they got left at
(04:37):
this point, so I'm pretty concerned that they're not going
to be able to move the ball. The only real
advantage the Texans have is probably upfront on defense, where
they are very very good. But then you have Patrick Mahomes.
He is not justin Herbert. Last time these two teams
(04:57):
played forty seven drop back, he took one sack, so
he's pretty good at midiating that advantage. All that's really
left is Nico Collins. I don't think that should be
close to enough. That said, it's still a lot of
points in a low total, I mean kind of rightfully.
So I think when I look at the way the
(05:18):
Chiefs are going to play here, Texans corners are very
very tough to beat. Deep I'm gonna probably see close
your ears Matt Clark a very low a dot here
from the Chiefs offense. So I expect a lot of
dinking and dunking. I don't expect the Texans to do
a lot of great things on offense. The one spot
(05:40):
maybe to watch is if DJ Humphries. I'm seeing him
back first string at left tackle. I'm guessing he's going
to have a short leash. So if the Chiefs are
struggling early and he's getting wrecked and he gets swapped out,
that might be a live betting opportunity for the Chiefs.
But outside of that, not much as interesting for me here.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
They won't have Deontae Johnson either.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Will not punted off on Deontay Johnson eleven to one
touchdown this week.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
Claimed by the Ravens today. The Raven's always ten thousand
steps away trying to improve their compensatory formula when it
comes to free agency next season because by rule, he
can't even be a part of the playoff roster, So
Ravens basically just making sure that Deontay can't play for
another team and they can get to the maximum comp
(06:31):
formula for him being on their roster. The last time
the Kansas City Chiefs played football and tried was Christmas Day.
By the time this kicks off, those guys will have
had twenty three days off. This is like the ultimate
Rest versus Russ argument. But when it comes to Andy
(06:53):
Reid in preparation, I'm going to tend to think that
the Rest is going to have the advantage in this spot. Donnie,
I have to pass the ball to you because you
have one of our favorite bets. Uh, it is an
all timer. You're darn gamble. Fans will know what is coming, Donnie.
What should we be wagering on in this contest?
Speaker 3 (07:15):
Mahomes over rushing. It's playoff time, baby, let's go. What
are we waiting for?
Speaker 1 (07:21):
Come on?
Speaker 3 (07:22):
This number is twenty three and a half. It should
be thirty three and a half. This is Mahomes when
it matters. He's had, like Rich said, like six months
off to heal up that ankle. The guy's gonna be
ready to go, and all the better if the Texans
can put some pressure on him. Great scramble away, Mahomes,
Let's go.
Speaker 4 (07:39):
Doesn't this always cash in like the first quarter?
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Doesn't He's just like.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
And then he's just gone. And Mahomes is one of
those guys where this is like an underrated part of
his rushing. He like gets to the sidelines and you
think he's gonna go out and then like the defender
kind of backs off because they don't want to hit
Mahomes because that's gonna be a flag. But then he
sneaks back in for like five more yards. He does
it all the time, all the time.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
He does the little tight rope sideways and then leaves
the ball forward. It gets three extra yards. I think.
On the other side, CJ. Stroud a guy who didn't
tuck and run at all last season. He had fifty
rushing yards last week. His alt fifty over this week
is fifteen to one. Like, we should be betting CJ.
Stroud rushing ladder this week because.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
I didn't think he could. I didn't think he could
run like that. I think he blew me away.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
I think he's always been capable. He's just and this
is kind of why I liked him as a prospect.
He is very much a I'm going to stay in
the pocket, keep my eyes downfield, and deliver, which is
ultimately what you need to win in this league. That's
why Lamar's gotten so much better. The better he's become
a pocket passer, because offense is about explosive place right
and breaking pocket and running. You can only create so
(08:53):
many explosives by doing that, but by throwing the ball
you can. It's much easier to create explosives that way.
And yeah, I mean it's the playoffs. Stroud might have
to make a play, he might have to break pocket,
and he's athletic, and we should be looking at his
rushing totals as well. Well. You said gun to head,
you like the over in this spot, and I tend
(09:13):
to agree with you as well.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
I was.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
I don't want to say Sloan was okay last week,
is what I'm trying to get at. He mixed in
a lot more passing on first down than he had
previous weeks in the season. The Houston offense was humming
at a level that didn't look like they had previously.
And I think more importantly out of all of this
(09:40):
is number twelve was banged up a lot during the season,
and Nico looks fully healthy. And when that guy's on
the field, the explosives will be available for Houston. Even
with someone like Bobby Wood sidelined and some of the
depth of this receiver group in question, I think the
Texans will be able to put together some scoring drives.
I think I am interested in that over as well.
(10:04):
But honestly, the quarterback rushing for both of these guys
is is my most interested look in this contest. Let's
get to the nightcap on Saturday. Let's get to a
game that there's actually some strong dissension amongst the collective
because the Washington formerly racial slurs, formerly football team now
(10:27):
Communists travel to Detroit. The Lions are Can I say
ten point favorites? Am I allowed to say ten point
favorites in this spot?
Speaker 2 (10:35):
And this spot is closer, but I don't think it's
quite there, but.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
It's still pretty an expensive ten once again seeing some
nines and nine and a half as well. The Lions
had the rest. The Commanders went down to Tampa Bay
and took care of business against the Buccaneers, and there
was a fervor within the GGI discord bit dot ly
slash discord. Move to get on the commis to bet
(11:02):
the commis on the money bet line. But Brett is
here to pour cold water all over that, because somehow,
some way, the man who was denigrated, Man Campbell, more
than anybody in front of microphones, is out here telling
us to bet Max Alts on the Detroit Lions. In
(11:27):
this game.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
Let me start by saying I think this game has
the hot the widest range of outcomes, and one of
those is that the Lions just blow the doors off
this fraudulent Commanders team that has run right way above
expectation against soft opposition all season, including last week against Tampa.
A hand off fumble in Tampa's own zone let Washington
back into the game, and they won despite being diced
(11:51):
up by Baker, just like they've been diced up all season.
The Bucks only threw the ball eighteen times last week,
which is inexplicable, but that kind of plays into this
cap like Tampa's not a good football team, lousey coaching staff,
horrific pass defense. Like good riddance Tampa. But now the
Commedye's getting a real test against an offense that is
(12:11):
extremely difficult to stop. They're finally taking a seat at
the adult table, and there is no booster seat. The
other outcome is that the Lions defense crumbles against a
very athletic quarterback and it golf pisss down his own
leg and can't do enough to win a football game.
I think it's more likely we see a blow out
(12:33):
here than a Washington win, So I've got the Lions
minus twenty and a half on DraftKings plus three to
twenty two. We know Dan Campbell does not step off
the gas, and the Lions should be able to do
whatever they want in this game. So that is my
play here. But I could certainly, I think you can
(12:54):
make a good case for Washington money line too, and
I look forward to hearing hearing that you guys.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Boll Yeah, Moo's got the alts on the other side,
not all the way to money line. In his account,
he's taken the traditional seven and a half. I believe
did you grab that when it opened or did you
grab that as an alt as well. I'll let you
take the floor.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Yeah, I'm looking at alts now. The best prices I
found were on fan Duel. Plus seven and a half
is plus one oh six, plus three and a half
is plus two fifteen. Like Brett said, very high variance game,
high powered offenses, beatable defenses, and two coaching staffs that
will be going for every fourth and short. So we
(13:36):
could see some drives that there's going to be a
fork in the road where it could either be a
touchdown or a turnover. This is going to happen multiple times,
and yeah, I think that plays into alts for sure.
I like from Washington. From Washington's end, I just like
their matchup against this line's defense. Obviously, things went well
(14:00):
for the Lions against the Vikings. That being said, look
at the three games before that they played against decent offenses.
They allowed thirty four, forty eight, and forty one to
the last three good offenses they faced before that. So yeah,
I think you know the Lions will be running the ball.
(14:21):
That's likely going to work. Washington is poor against the run.
Only thing they're very good at is getting pressure on
the quarterback. But they also like to play man. That
is not going to work very well in this game.
Jared Goff gains like fifty points of passer rating when
he faces man, and he's been better when he's been
(14:41):
blitzed according to PFF grading this year, So I'm not
confident about that side of the ball. I'm tended to
parlay Washington with the over in this spot because I
don't really see that many situations where they don't allow
a lot of points. So I think they're gonna have
to be matching score for score slash, playing catchup slash
(15:02):
relying on turnovers. I don't really see them forcing a
lot of punts here, so I kind of like Washington.
Maybe Alt's parlayed with the over. I'm gonna look into
that what kind of prices you can get because I
don't see their defense having any success here other than
random pressure blitzes that can make golf make a mistake.
I mean, they still have a way better quarterback though,
(15:24):
like Jayden Daniels is so much better than Jared Goff.
I mean, I know Jared Goff is thriving and having
another good season in a great ecosystem, but the better
quarterback is getting infinite points here. So that's the side
I have to take. And again back to success in
the pocket. Those numbers that you're setting against the blitz,
(15:46):
it's against the blitz that last week he made that
throat to Scary Terry. It's against the all out Engay
J eight blitz in Cincinnati night game, rookie on the
road that he's making an insane.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Throw into the end zone. He's not like breaking pocket
and running. He is playing at dare I say an
elite level as a passer already? And you stole the
words out of my mouth when you said parlaying with
the over, mo, I think if you like Washington here,
you should find a way to same game parlay them
(16:20):
with some sort of offense success, whether it's them team
wise or just in the game as well, Like moneyline
plus three sixty. Yeah, that's nice, but it's such a
correlated parlay with the over. It's a very correlated parlay
with Jaden Daniels over his rushing number or Jaden Daniels
not to throw an interception, Like, there are very correlative
(16:43):
ways you can get to plus one thousand instead of
just taking the plus three sixty on the money line
with Washington. And I think in a game where the
total is fifty five, those routes are much more much
You're gonna have much more success on those as opposed
to just taking the points in this game, Because, like
(17:04):
you and Brett just said, there is such a wide
range of outcomes in this game that, like Washington winning
isn't that crazy. So just sitting back and taking nine
points at minus one ten just doesn't seem like the
right way to attack this game. Yeah, if you take
Kami's money line like it could absolutely plow up in
your face. Brett's alts the Lion's cash. But that's fine
(17:28):
because it is a reasonable amount of the outcomes that
Washington wins this game. To make that bet as opposed
to just taking the points, sitting there and hoping that
Washington somehow backdoors in this game, that strategy doesn't really
doesn't really sit with me. So this is, I mean,
(17:49):
this is the game I'm most excited for this weekend.
I think I think, I honestly think Bill's Ravens is
going to be like this low scoring kind of sloburrknocker game.
I think it's gonna be tense, and obviously there's stake there,
but I think this game could be absolute fireworks for
and again for what you said, Mo, You've got We've
got two coaching staffs here. Credit to dan Quinn. Maybe
(18:10):
it's the front office, the ownership group that went in
there and just again Clockwork Orange. They just opened dan
Quinn's eyes and they just made him look at data
like these two teams are just going for it, right,
Like every time they can push a one percent edge,
they're going to So yeah, I just think the swings
(18:30):
in this game, like if a team that's another thing.
And I'm going on a bit of a ran here, Like,
if either of these teams goes down ten, I think
there's a chance to just put a small share on
the team that's trailing to win the game, because like,
that's how crazy this game could be and how much
variance could be in this game. Like I think the
swings in this game contest could be absolutely wild from
(18:52):
both of these teams. So I think that's something else
to look out for as well, especially if the team
that goes up ten, if it's like variants, right, if
it's just like a weird fumble that bounces into somebody's
gullet and scoops and scores. Obviously, if the Lions come
out and are like blowing doors and Washington can't move
the ball, then yeah, you probably don't want to fire
that live bet on Washington. But if there's something weird
(19:14):
that happens, a weird bounce, weird tip, then I think
there's an opportunity to make a live wager here on
either team and just lean into the amount of variants
that that could be coming in this contest. I'm excited
about I'm pumped DP. You went the traditional route. You
have this the nine already have. I convinced you to
add some some moneyline or something else.
Speaker 3 (19:34):
So, I mean I talked about in the discord that
I think, you know, there's certainly a world where the
Lions win by forty. I mean, you know, this is
just that type of game. That said, I kind of
just wanted to lock in the plus nine as somewhat
of a safety net, and then going to what you
were speaking towards Rich, this is a game where I think,
(19:55):
you know, Saturday morning, maybe Friday night or whatever, I'm
just gonna build out a bunch of different same game
parts and just have some fun with it. You know,
like if if the Lions do blow doors, okay, can
I get some crazy all rushing overs or this and that?
Like build out all this kind of weird sort of
stuff and just just shoot for the moon. In a
lot of ways, that said always sort of just have
that safety net, because I was like, you know, I
(20:16):
could see some some late money coming in on Washington
and people think things are getting out of aligned with with
the Lions here, So I'll just lock in that plus nine.
I'll go from there, and then again I'll just have
some fun with it. In terms of these same game
parlays because you know you mentioned Jade Daniels over rushing.
I really like that too, especially if this defense is
able to get after him. Like I think he's just
the type of guy who's gonna start laying it all
on the line, kind of like Mahomes does once it
(20:38):
gets to the playoffs. Well, the benefit of Jadon Daniels
is he's an elite runner. He doesn't seem to care
about really getting hit. He avoids like getting hit really hard,
so that is a benefit. He's young, he's spry. The
kid can move, man, So if he can get out
and get after it, great, like awesome. So yeah, same
game parlays for me. I'm gonna be coming in late
on that and just again have some fun with.
Speaker 4 (20:57):
It kind of could I There will be a zach
Ertz touchdown prop in those Yeah, probably two.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
You know who knows, right capping for zach er Smoe.
The key is in there, let's go come on most
several weeks ahead on zach Ertz becoming an absolute goat
once again, an interesting one. I haven't looked at it.
I'll be interested to see how David Montgomery is being
lined in these markets because he was a full participate
(21:27):
in practice somehow, some way, so something interesting if you
like the angle of Brett's blowout, something like montgomery last touchdown,
if he's not being lined normally in the market is
something of interest because he is their goal line back traditionally, though,
that's something to take into account as well.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
I got one. I got one. If you want to
get really spicy with the SGPS Washington money line with
Detroit's team total over thirty one and a half is
plus twenty four hundred on decays.
Speaker 1 (22:01):
I mean, if you're if you're gonna get to the over,
I mean the Lions, it's this is not gonna be
Commander's forty lions twenty one. You know, Like that's pretty spicy.
I like that. Mo Good shout the other NFC tilt.
Los Angeles Rams made Sam Darnold look at ghosts for
(22:24):
a second consecutive week, probably cost my guy like fifty
million dollars, and now they have to travel to Philadelphia
to take on the aforementioned E A. G. L Ees Eagles.
I'm seeing six right now. I saw as low as
five and a half. I am seeing market support for
(22:46):
the Rams. Majority of the tickets on LA I'm hearing
a lot of people talk about the Rams. I'm hearing
a lot of excitement after hell Will their defense played
against Minnesota, And I think people are kind of cool
on Philly after their performance last week. You've got aj
Brown a DNP here on Wednesday. You've got Aj Brown
(23:10):
reading books instead of running routes on the field. So
I think this game, by game time, I could see
this movie closer towards LA. So I think it's very
sharp that Brett if you've jumped out now and grabbed
the money bet line early in the week, because I
think you might be losing out on Savalley if you wait,
(23:31):
Brett talk about the scout for us.
Speaker 4 (23:33):
Yeah, this is really just me doubling down on the Eagles.
Fade I said at the discord last week. I can't
I can't believe the Packers blew this. They had every
opportunity against a pitifole Jalen Hurts, but the turnovers ended
them straight away. That first kickoff set the tone and
then of course their entire receiving corps goes down and
all credit to Josh Jacobs. He put the team out
(23:55):
his back though. But like you can't beat the Eagles,
like that it's It was really tough watching knowing that
the Eagles were were gettable last week. They absolutely were.
Philly's defense did play fantastic, certainly not taking anything away
from them, But now they get Matthew Stafford, who was
tremendous last week. Was that an outlier or is his
(24:20):
playoff Stafford just different than regular season Stafford. He looked
revived last week. The Rams looked awesome, and I like
them here on the money line plus two thirty five
on FanDuel. I'm selling everything on Hurtz. I have a
hard time seeing this team going far with the way
he's playing post concussion. Maybe he does look better this
week and I'm just lighting money on fire again, But
(24:41):
if the Eagles do fall behind in a game, I
don't trust this guy to make plays, even with these
weapons like the Rams. How many sacks did they have?
They like nine sacks last week. Obviously a much stiffer
test here against the Eagles offensive line, but if they
can pressure Hurts, I think they just win this game.
So I really really like la here.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
I saw some ridiculous that I'm trying to pull it
up now. I was able to grab his playoff record
real quick but I saw something like Stafford is like
eighteen and three in December and beyond with the Rams.
I know he's five and one in the playoffs with
the Rams because they won four straight games and route
to the Super Bowl, lost their only game last year,
(25:21):
and they're won to zero this year. So is playoff
Stafford a thing? And he looked He did not look
like mo the guy who went out on Christmas and
could not complete forward passes against the Arizona Cardinals. He
was absolutely dicing up everything that Flores threw at him.
That being said, it's a thirty seven percent chance of
(25:44):
rain in this contest, you have a slight lean towards
the under in this game.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
Yeah, I'm concerned about Stafford being outdoors in the cold.
But at the same time, you know, I do think
the Rams plus six and a half is it bet
I would be making if I wasn't already invested in
a Rams future. At thirty to one, I'm just riding
with that right now. So uh, just gonna hope for
the best. But if I didn't have that, I'd likely
(26:11):
be on the Rams at six and a half. I
think the line is a bit too high. It just
all comes down to Jalen Hurts. For me, it all
comes down to what we get from Jalen Hurts. If
that was a post concussion Hayes and he shook out
of that and he's his normal self, Yeah, this could
be another Philly w like the last time when they
destroyed the Rams. But if he's not, then I think
(26:35):
the Rams win this game out right. I mean, because yeah,
Saquon went for two fifty five on them last time.
But if they don't fear anything from Jalen Hurts, They're
just gonna load the box without any fear of the
pass and just overwhelm this running game with bodies. I mean,
I think you pretty much saw the Packers do that
last week. I think it was concerning that the coaching
(26:56):
staff didn't seem to have any confidence in Jalen Hurts
any like third down over eight yards. They were just
like running the ball and punting. That was extremely concerning
for me. I do like that this is I think
a good matchup for this LA offense as well. I mean,
that's not why they lost the game last time. They
lost the game because they give up tw hundred and
fifty five yards to Saquon Barkley. Philly does not pressure
(27:19):
the passer, They don't blitz. We know those are the
weaknesses of Matt Stafford now that he cannot move. I
saw something crazy last week that I brought up on
the show with Matt Brown because I just have never
I didn't know PFF grades went this slow. Stafford when
pressured is a twenty nine this year. I didn't know
(27:39):
they went that low. That's like, this is like a
sat don't you get You get a grade of forty
for writing your name correctly and filling everything out, don't you?
I mean forty is like the lowest. I thought. He
has a twenty nine grade if he's pressured, and he
has like a ninety two grade when he's not pressured.
So Philly, we know what they We've talked about this
(27:59):
last week with Fangio. He wants to sit back in
his zone. He wants to make you check down, and
he wants to make you run the ball. And I
think Matt Stafford can make the type of throws that
Jordan Love was missing last week. And this running game,
while it is not an explosive running game, it's a
high success rate running game, and that is what you
(28:21):
need against Vic Fangio's scheme.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
Yeah, and not to mention in that game last week,
the Packers entered it without Christian Watson. Then Romeo Dobbs
slams his head into the turf again, Jaden Reed shattered
his arm close to the end of the contest. And
you've got Bo Melton and something he out there running
(28:45):
routes and the most high leverage spot of the season. Granted,
hats off, literal had off to the Packers for continuing
to try to play football. Whereas what were the Vikings
doing on Monday nights? They're in the quarter they literally stopped.
Joe Buck was beside himself. He literally said on the broadcast,
(29:06):
they know they're down eighteen, right, this is a disgusting performance. So, yeah,
this is a Rams team. We've heard about Puka all year.
The scumbag Cup showed up and made a catch last week.
Let's hope he can get more than one in this contest.
And Stafford is that dude. So yeah, I'm with you, guys.
(29:26):
I'm on Rams here. I think RAMS moneyline is a
good shout And Tayalen Hurts is just going to have
to show me that he can complete forward passes in
a big spot until then, I'm believing in what I'm
seeing from Chris Shula and this Rams defense. Every time
the Rams have played in a big spot this year,
They've created a ton of pressure and the guys on
(29:49):
the boundary have been tough as nails in man coverage.
So I'm believing with Chrishula is selling right now, and
I think the Rams are fully capable of winning this game,
the final game of the weekend, the game everybody is
excited for, maybe except for our guy. Recall the Bills
(30:09):
make me wanna.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Terrified.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
You were in person at MMG Bank Stadium. You left early.
Speaker 2 (30:20):
It was a very one of the reads of the
year for grid Iron Gamble.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
It was a very tough scene for the Bills in
that contest. Now we have the rematch. The Buffalo Bills
opened as short favorites that quickly flipped to the Ravens
being short favorites. That's where we stand now. Total of
fifty one and a half, pretty much a fifty to
fifty split ticket wise, very Buffalo conditions save for the wind.
(30:47):
The wind looks calm, thirteen degrees, twenty five percent chance
of snow. Lamar will have probably three scullies on for
this game, Brett, take us through first your feelings as
a fan, and then take us through your cap for
this contest.
Speaker 4 (31:07):
Well, yeah, a matchup nightmare for the Bills. When these
teams played back in September, the Ravens were on our car,
they were by number one play because it is a
horrible setup for the Bills. I mean back then, so
back then they were where they were without Milano, they
were dealing with injuries in the secondary, and that game
played out kind of exactly how we expected, Right, The
Ravens just played bully ball with Henry and pounded us
(31:29):
for four quarters. I can see this playing out exactly
the same way. Buffalo does not have a good defense,
and certainly not one built to contain this style of
rushing offense, like once backs get into that second level.
The Bills haven't been able to stop anybody, so I
have major concerns there. But the Bills have been so
dominant at home it is a real advantage. And it's
(31:53):
like you said, it's going to be cold on Sunday night.
Can Lamar be trusted in those conditions? It's hard for
me to get to Ravens favored going into this environment,
but the matchups are just kind of sticking there in
the back of my mind. I can't get away from that.
So this is a stay away from me. I honestly
don't know what's going to happen in this game. I
just know that the next seventy two ninety six hours
(32:17):
are going to be stressful.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Donnie grabs a very sharp tease when this touch to
one and a half. You got the Bills up to
seven and a half and you pair them with the
Kansas City Chiefs. Talk about that cap DP.
Speaker 3 (32:33):
Yeah, I mean, listen on the Chiefs. I got them
down to two and a half. And I'm just worried
in general about the Chiefs being able to stretch games out,
which I think we've at least I've been worried about
all season long, and I think a lot of people have.
You know, they're not really hanging these big numbers, and
even though the Texans are pretty devoid of weapons right now,
I think it probably do enough to keep within one score.
(32:55):
So that's my side there. I Ultimately I have a
lot of confidence in playoff Chiefs playoff Mahome Andy Reid,
coming off a lot of rest, just being able to
win that game right here. I mean I have trouble
like Brett getting to Ravens minus and yeah, there is
a world where BULLI Ball Baltimore comes out and just
(33:15):
runs over Buffalo, right, that could happen. The Ravens are
a very good team, well coached, you know, have a
lot of power, all that sort of stuff. Like Brett said,
I'm worried about the Bills defense to an extent. I
don't know, man, this Bill's team. They feel awesome, like
it's their year type of awesome. This is in Buffalo.
Josh Allen is doing the damn thing Like I don't.
(33:39):
I think this one is super close. I think the
under of I think I saw fifty two is very
much in play here. And being able to tease this
up to more than a touchdown seven and a half
seems like free money. I mean, like, you know, I
almost want to do another part of the tease and
just have Chiefs Bills in the under, you know. And
(34:00):
I know you're not necessarily supposed to tease over unders,
but I mean, why not, right if I'm just kind
of feeling so good about this teaser here. So yeah,
I don't see how the Ravens ultimately blow them out.
Speaker 4 (34:13):
Here.
Speaker 3 (34:13):
Yeah, the Ravens could win this game. I would agree there,
but I don't think it's gonna be a runaway. I
think the Bills are ultimately too good even if they're down.
I think you've seen in the past essentially Josh Allen
can put this team on his damn back and come back.
Like he can do that too, right, So yeah, I
think there's gonna be a lot of struggles for Baltimore
(34:34):
in this type of weather. I never really like taking
Baltimore coming off such a big, dominant win like last week,
Like this is not the Steelers, Okay, this is not
like the Bills are in a different league than the Steelers. Okay,
So the Bills can score, the Bills can play tough,
the Bills can go blow for blow with the Ravens
should it come to that. But you know, seven and
(34:55):
a half points in a game that I think is
gonna be much lower scoring than people anticipate. Rich going
back to what you said, I think people think this
game is gonna be the you know, forty to thirty,
and it's really going to be the Lions and the Commanders, right,
this is gonna be like twenty to seventeen and people
are gonna in a way, it's probably gonna be a
really good game, but there might be some people that
(35:15):
are like, where's all the scoring when it's seven to
nothing at halftime or something, you know, something ridiculous like that.
Speaker 1 (35:20):
The other thing about playing under in this game I'm
seeing fifty one and a half right now is if
these two teams do come out kind of like a
heavyweight fight, throw up a three to nothing frame in
the first quarter, you're going to get a chance at
a very meaty middle if you have live options available
to you, where the live total could plummet with some
(35:41):
inactivity in the first quarter. So I think that's that's
another angle that you can play with this game. And yeah,
I think that. I think there's going to just be
a lot of feeling out in this game. That the
one thing that everybody is pointing to is just the
Ravens turnaround on defense starting in the middle of the season.
They are tops in so many categories if you pull
(36:03):
the slider to week nine, and they've performed extremely well
on the back half of the season. That being said,
I just I'm so questionable about this Ravens offense, even
if Say Flowers comes back, it's an injured guy in
the freezing cold. I don't think people realize how much
(36:23):
cold affects like injury recovery. Like if this dude is
sniffed once, he's gonna have like the most miserable three
hours of his life. So Nosey Flowers, if so a
banged up Zay Flowers, and then it's Lamar in the cold.
So I just don't think this is going to be
the explosive Ravens offense that everyone is so accustomed to. Which, yeah,
(36:46):
I think everything in this game just points to under
fifty one and a half. For me, we put a
pin on this night game in Orchard part. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
I also like the under. I'm just I didn't I
need somebody to push me into betting it since I'm
so terrified of betting it under with these quarterbacks. But
I think you guys are doing it. I think if
you like the over, the player you want to look
for to me that I think could be making a
very correlated parlay here. If you want to make an
(37:17):
SGP is just I think it's got to be a
bigger shot Bateman game. We know these Bills safeties are beatable.
I think that's the weak point on this defense. So
especially with Zay, I don't think he's going to play.
It looks like he's a long shot. Sounds like he's
a long shot, and even if he does play, it
doesn't seem like he's going to be close to one
hundred percent. I think the Ravens need to get a
(37:38):
bigger shot Bateman game if they're going to score a
lot of points here, because like Brett said, all they
did was pound the rock last time. I don't know
if that's going to work this time. Like Brett said,
the Bills defense is healthier. All the metrics are telling
me the Ravens are the better team. They have better metrics,
they played in a tougher division. All the numbers are
telling me they're better than the Bills. The Bills also
(38:00):
thrived off turnovers this year, especially on defense. Lamar Jackson
has the lowest turnover worthy play percent in the NFL
according to PFF's tracking, So that might not be there
for them, but it's like you said with Jalen hurts Man,
I gotta see it. I got to see Lamar do
(38:21):
something in the January game outside cold weather against a
good team I'm not I mean blessed Houston Souls last year.
I'm not counting them as a good team. I'm talking
about really good teams. You know. It's like Draymond Green said,
there's eighty two game players and there's sixteen game players,
(38:42):
and everything we've seen from Lamar Jackson and I think
this could be legitimate because he's a very difficult player
to prepare for, but when everybody's working overtime in the playoffs,
it's easier to prepare for him. Everything we've seen from
him says he's an eighty two game player. So I
got to see it from him against a team like
Buffalo until I'm going to believe this. So I know
(39:03):
the numbers are telling me Ravens, so I understand why
the market is going that way. I'm not gonna do it,
so I'll likely be on the under.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Like you guys, what a game. I'm glad this is
the nightcap on Sunday. I can't wait. I can't wait
for this game. I know, I know I said that
that Commi's Lions, Commy's Lions is like it's almost like
a circus act. Like I really think that it's gonna
be a wild ask game.
Speaker 3 (39:31):
Tommy's Lions reminds me of the game you went to
Chiefs Rams Chiefs Ramsey.
Speaker 1 (39:35):
That was just a shit show. I mean it was
track me up and down. Yeah. That was welterweight right
or whatever? Midweight flywaight. That was just two guys that
know they can't kill each other. That they're just landing
punch after punch because they're just not strong enough to
kill the other guy. Whereas I think the last one
to score wins exactly. I think I think Ravens Bills
is going to be a lot more feeling out, a
(39:55):
lot more you know, big punches. How many of them
are going to land? Who knows?
Speaker 2 (40:01):
And just there's something special about two elite quarterbacks playing
for legacy. Yeah, and these guys are there, like Patrick
Mahomes could be in this game next week against either
one of those guys and lose and it doesn't matter.
He's already got three Super Bowls. These guys need it, man,
they need it, and one of them is going down
in the second round and that's painful.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Oh my god. It'll be the longest offseason for whoever
loses this game, because can they win with ex quarterback
what about this? Is this coach handingsta Is I mean Brett.
If the Bills go down here, how much confidence can
you have in McDermott coming back? Everyone loves There's no,
(40:42):
There's no. I mean, I don't know how bad Josh
would have to play for people to be upset with
Josh Allen in this game, but the McDermott hot seat,
at least from a fans perspective, it'll be Donnie Calin
from the parking lot again.
Speaker 3 (40:57):
Trade Josh, trade him.
Speaker 4 (41:01):
Then McDermott's stuff. I've actually come around the McDermott a
lot this year because he finally has adapted to the
the in games. And he still makes a lot of
stupid mistakes, but it's nothing like years ago when he
would I mean so many, so many things, especially in
the playoffs, so many things trying to kickfield goals to
beat mahomes, like the obviously the thirteen seconds game like that.
(41:23):
That kind of stuff I feel like is behind us.
I'm hopeful that he can put together a good game
plan this week and it just yeah, like most said,
I mean this, this game is massive for Josh Allen.
Aside from the MVP stuff, I don't think he cares
about that like this. This is more about like we
(41:45):
have to get paidback against the Ravens here and have
another shot at the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (41:50):
You know, it's funny, Donnie, you bring up that Rams
Chiefs game. There aren't outs to the Rams hosting the
NFC Championship game next week against the Commies, and I
don't know I would. I would have to seriously consider
finding my way up to Inglewood for that game. And
(42:12):
it's weird too because I think they'll have to make
it the late game, which is funny, or else. It's like,
if they make it the early game, it's like a
twelve thirty local kick for the championship. So very bizarre
spot there. But we'll have to look into that. If that,
if that parlay comes home, all right, can't wait, can't
(42:34):
believe there's only two more podcasts after this conference championship
and the big Game. And as much as the Jet
fan and me and the hat on top of my
head tells me not to, I'm really rooting for you, Brett.
I like this Bills team. I know it's sacrilege to
say as a Jets fan, as an AFC East Division guy,
but the Josh Allen. It's just he's just that dude,
(42:57):
so I would I'd love to see him get his
shot against Mahomes again.
Speaker 3 (43:03):
In air needed injected in my own your whole social
media persona needs Josh. I have so many receipts are
coming for you. I have to delete your account. I
have so many receipts.
Speaker 1 (43:18):
If the Ravens lose this game, I I'll stop the
block out my entire calendar on Monday to go through
everybody that went after me from Ravens Twitter. If if
the Bills end up ending their season on Sunday, all right,
follow these guys on Twitter at Brickholson CEO double L
s O n Out Downy Underscore Peters and at Monawara
and U double w A R A H. I'm at
(43:40):
rich t Ryan. Enjoy the football this weekend. Only three
weekends left, people, so enjoy every second until then.
Speaker 2 (43:48):
Peace out,
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If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!