April 22, 2025 • 47 mins
Donnie and Rich grumble about the state of sports betting, especially with the draft, before giving their favorite props for the 2025 NFL Draft.
Join the Discord: bit.ly/DiscordMoose
Join the Discord: bit.ly/DiscordMoose
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
The Welcome back to.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Airn Cambell, the only podcast that put its money where
its mouth is. I'm your host, rich Ron, and I'm
joined by one member of the collective, Donnie DP Peters.
Moe is gallivanting in Galway or some green pastor in
the island of Ireland.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Brett.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
I don't know he's maintaining the farm. I don't know
if there's any snow recently. Another snow like two weekends
ago in New Jersey, so might be dealing with some
snow still up in Buffalo. So it's just Donnie and
I here to give you some draft takes. If you
are watching this on YouTube, please like the video and
subscribe to the channel. Listeners rate and review on your
(00:58):
Podcatter of Choice five stars on like Heisman Trophy winner
and presumptive number two overall selection Travis Hunter and Donnie
and I are going to dig into some of these
draft props, but not before Donnie and I air some grievances.
(01:18):
Grievances Grievanson's Wow, I think I butchered it again in
this market, because it seems like this year, more than ever,
these books are terrified of listing props, of taking action
I saw our guy, and he is our guy. I
love this dude. I love Jeffrey Benson. I love how
he goes at people on Twitter. I generally think the
(01:41):
folks at Circa do a great job of bookmaking, especially
in markets like this, and are more willing to take
on risk than others.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Benson was complaining, books hate this.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
We're gonna lose five or six figures on the draft,
and so what like, get out there, set some good
line and do some trading like a real book should,
and let's go.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
This is the This is Donnie.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
This is one of the one opportunities where because there's
information trading that I feel like betters can actually have
a substantial edge when it comes down to games, especially
in the NFL, we're dealing with razor thin margins in
the outcomes of these contests. But when it comes to
you know, putting the puzzle together information sharing, I feel
(02:27):
like people can find an edge in these markets and
it's just up to the books to set good lines
and trade.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Come on, guys, sports betting is lame. Now, what do
you want me to say? I'm gonna here's my take.
Sports betting was better when the illegal offshores were in
charge regulation mo Is on the podcast Regulation. This is
my new take regulation. All these greedy corporations have have
(02:55):
killed everything. They've taken the fun out of it. As
somebody who likes to bet for fun, seriously, yes, but
for fun, it's becoming very not fun. I mean, you
start winning, they just ban you cool. That's ridiculous. You
can't find any good lines anywhere, like and it's not
(03:15):
even like I mean, I was looking around the different
books for the draft stuff and it's first of all,
the lines are just horrible because, like you said that,
it seems like they're just very scared. Second of all,
there's just not a lot like this is this is
the only NFL event for months on either side that
it should be like a Super Bowl type of offering.
(03:38):
A buffet. You walk in you can't eat enough, Like
why isn't there just like NonStop stuff everywhere. It's just
it's just not available. And I think that, I don't know,
maybe they're just too timid, scared. I don't know, but
it's not it's becoming less and less fun. And I
can only blame the fact that when the corporations get involved,
(03:59):
they tend to ruin everything gotta.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Get those margins, Gotta make sure the shareholders are happy,
Gotta get those SCPs going. And again, like you said,
I'm a casual gamer when I am in an eligible state,
when I'm down in Florida with my folks, I love
firing up an SGP on hard rock hand raised, but
at least give me some decent odds. At least give
(04:22):
me like a plus five thousand when it's a plus
five thousand. Don't give me like twenty five hundred, give
me half odds because you're just chasing profit margins.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Get out of here with that.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
And that's I think another reason why we support Circus
so much, because they very much treat this as bookmaking
and trading first, and they think their long term view
is that if they cater to people who want to
bet on good lines, if they do that well enough
that they can dominate enough of the market share within
(04:54):
that context to have success. And I'm certainly rooting four
Benson and that crew, even if I get to complain
about them during the draft season. A good example of
this is, like, so a player like Luther Burdon, Luthor
burdon the third DA Missouri, my guy JJ Zachereson in
his model, Burden is the best receiver in this class,
even if you include Travis Hunter as a wide receiver
(05:17):
based on this is all based on stats, height, weight,
and there are some athletic testing in there. And I've
seen folks out there who think Burden is a tremendous player.
But there is a lot of stuff about Burden where
he kind of took his last season off after exploding
on the scene in his sophomore season, took some plays off,
(05:40):
took some routes off, some character concerns. This would be
a classic example of bookmaking where you have this great
talent with a lot of red flags, and setting a
market for him is quite ambiguous, and it will take
some skill to set a market. And there's definitely very
strong right tail out and very strong left tail outcomes,
(06:02):
and it.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Would be fun to gamble on it.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
It would be fun to have like adjusted Luther Bird
in lines as to what pick position he will be
selected in. But instead in all these major markets they
just remove his name from the board instead of actually
doing some trading and actually doing some book more. Okay,
let's we got that off our chest. That was six
(06:23):
minutes of complaining, let's talk about the actual draft itself.
It seems as if, and I think you agree with
me with what you had just sent me before record,
it seems as if the draft starts at pick number five,
and I got to give a shout out to the discord.
I am patting myself on the back here a little bit.
(06:44):
Look at the description for a link, or just go
to bit dot l y slash discord moose we were
on at least I was cam Ward first quarterback taken
minus three hundred months ago. I was in there saying
it is in saying in any universe that as quarterback
prospects for the NFL that cam Ward is any way
(07:07):
comparable to Shad or Sanders. And now it looks as
if the slide is on for Coach Prime's son, where
I'm seeing his draft number in the mid to low teens,
the biggest inflection point being the New Orleans Saints at nine.
But I feel like a lot of people are doing
some dot connecting there with the Derek car injury, and
(07:30):
I could see door falling even further. But if you
were in the discord, you could have grabbed cam Ward
minus three hundred first quarterback taken now he's it's OTB.
I won't even tout this one.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
You can get.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Better than whatever return on investment you were getting for
cam Ward first quarterback, cam Ward first pick. But it
seems as if consensus is Ward Hunter Carter Campbell will
be the first four picks. A lot of smoke for
Campbell being the selection for the New England Patriots there
at four. And I know your fandom is less so now,
(08:03):
but what are your thoughts on the tackle being linked
with Rabel and New England. I think there's a lot
of concern. I don't think. I know there's a lot
of concern with his arm length, specifically his wingspan. He
has and this is true, a zero percentile wingspan zero Donnie.
(08:25):
There's never been a person, if he takes a snap
in the NFL at tackle, who has had a wingspan
smaller than Will Campbell. So a lot of concerns there.
But it seems like he's going to.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Be the pick at four for your New England Patriots.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Yeah, it does seem like it's trending that way. I
know you mentioned that the draft starts at five, it
probably starts at four and a half. For me, I
just think that there's still a chance, and a fairly
decent one, that the Patriots just trade out of this
pick at four, and I'm interested to see what that happens.
I think the top three are locked. I think the
(09:00):
odds also reflect that, as you pointed out, and then
I think for is you know, it's i mean, what
twenty percent chance they trade out something like that, you know,
so we'll see how it goes. I think the Will
Campbell to the Patriots is the quote unquote safe pick, right.
I mean, he they need to you know, improve the
(09:20):
offensive line for sure, in front of Drake Maye. They
got to protect the guy. This is supposed to be
the best one in the draft. Okay, you take that.
It's great. Now my issue with taking Will Campbell, if
I'm the Patriots, is that the number four pick, you
need a guy who plays day one, snap one and
(09:40):
is an impact player. Now Will Campbell can certainly be that, yes,
But and listen, I'm not you know, an expert NFL
draft scout any of that sort of stuff. But you know,
you just hear you hear enough negative that it makes
you question if he is that you know, day one
app one starter, you know, potential Hall of Fame, career,
(10:04):
et cetera, blah blah blah, which you should try and
land with the number four pick. So if there is
any concern, I would if I was them, I wouldn't
lean to just make the pick because it's ultimately the
safest pick and yes, even if it doesn't work out,
we're probably not gonna get killed for it in the
long run. I would lean to, like, listen, with that pick,
(10:25):
we need a freaking blue chipper, And if this guy
isn't a blue chipper ninety nine percent of the way there,
then I'll just I'll take the draft capital and try
and do something else right like that would be my
take on it. So that's why I say that. You know,
for me, I'm really interested to see what they do. Yes,
i know everything is trending in the way that Will
Campbell gets drafted by the Patriots, but I'm still curious
(10:48):
if they do. You know what, if somebody just steps
in and tries to blow them out of the water
for whatever freaking reason, These teams get a little bit
crazy in the draft sometimes you never know, So I
would be curious to see if they end up do
staying there. So I'm going to be certainly watching the
number four pick pretty intently on Day one.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Yeah, I think the scenario there, and boys, it's smoke season.
The these next few days, I'm seeing a ton of
smoke for the Jags taking an offensive player at five.
And the quote that I heard is that the Jacksonville
Jaguars want somebody who can score touchdowns, which they have
(11:24):
a thirty four year old GM and off their new
head coach is a thirty nine year old former offensive coordinator.
So I believe it if those two guys, if they're objective,
if they wrote on the whiteboard the first thing we
want to score. It's like the Billy Bean thing, right,
Billy Bean the scene for Moneyball runs. We want runs,
(11:47):
And it seems simple, but it's a pretty good strategy
when we know how valuable offense is in this league,
and we know when you got a guy like Trevor Lawrence,
we should lean into that and try to score as
many points as possible and get Trevor Lawrence as much
help as possible. So all that to say, I think
what you're hoping for, Donnie, is that that smoke starts
(12:08):
to leak, whether be Jens or tet who are the
top skill position players at their respective positions that you,
as a Patriots fan, want somebody to get jittery and
move up ahead of Jacksonville to take one of those players.
I think that's the scenario in which the Patriots get
a chance to slide back. And the Campbell conversation is
fascinating because it's the ultimate ball knower versus excel nerd
(12:32):
argument because multiple year starter in the SEC at LSU,
all SEC player, the dude put on good tape.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
He played very good football.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
But there's just a ton of skeptics when it comes
to somebody of that size. And I've seen even people
that don't even guard him as a tackle in this class.
They straight up just guarach grade him, excuse me, greade
him as a tackle. They grade him as a guard
in this class. So when that starts to be the
conversation and oh, if he doesn't work out tackle, we
could just kick him inside, that starts to get really worrisome,
(13:03):
especially like you said, at pick number four, this isn't
like a mid first round pick, like you need pick
number four to be impactful, like you said on day one.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
So also just quickly, this is why the stupid New
England Patriots should have got the same way hundred percent.
Why you get because now you're not in this stupid
position that you just have the number one pick, and yeah,
maybe you just take abdul Carter and say f everyone else.
Maybe you just be like, listen, who wants it, Let's
(13:33):
go show us the best offer. We'll drop back, No
big deal. But now you're stuck in like this weird
middle ground where you know, listen, there's again, there's enough
out there now from respectable people and experts in the
space that study this stuff for months and months and
months on end, that you can go either way with
Will Campbell. Yes, he might be great and he might
turn out to be a Hall of Famer. That's that's
(13:55):
not to take anything away from the kid, but there's
enough that says that he, like you said, he might
be a guard. At the end of the day, his
arms might not be too long. Like you just don't know,
you know. And that's what happens when you screw up
the season and you drop to number.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Four zero percentile wingspan zero zero.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
You put thh I can find that a little bit crazy.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
To zero.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
It's just that, like in all these sports, you see
all these people who overcome like different things. You know, basketball,
you see like the super short guy who's amazing, you know,
you have won on your team, Brunson, he's freaking, you know, incredible,
But he's a midget. I mean that's just how it is,
you know, like you see it everywhere with all these
different players. You know, and like this guy, because his
(14:41):
arm length is a few inches shorter, he can't be good.
What if he's just really really good. I mean that
could also certainly be the case. And then we're all like,
that was the dumbest thing in the world, you know,
talking about his arm length for you know, six months.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
Okay, let's talk jags specifically. Then you went full chalk.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
You're going for the Ward Hunter Carter Campbell, Graham Parlay
at plus one ninety. Why do you think they're going
to go Graham with this pig.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
I think it's kind of safe, you know. Part of
me says, I'm hedging a little bit because I do
have Ted McMillan as top ten and also under twelve
and a half, and that's part of my picks here.
And what I'll say with that is, I think there's
a shot that he could go five to the Jaguars,
(15:29):
so you know, and I have that at plus two
ten and then the under twelve and a half is
mine one twenty six. So you know, it's kind of
like there's a hedge there. Yes, I think probably at
the end of the day, they just picked the quote
unquote safer pick in Mason Graham. You know, I think
he's really good on the interior as a disruptor. You know,
(15:49):
he can just be an anchor on that side of
the ball. You know, I've seen comparisons to Williams, your
guy Q for the for the Jets. You know, maybe
not that good, but you know, the light version, I guess.
I mean, and this is a position that I think
if you, if you know football, you want to build
(16:12):
from the inside out, from the two lines, okay. And
I think that that coupled with the fact that they
have a new GM and a new coach, like they
should want to get it right from the start. And
I understand the talk of like we want, you know,
touchdown scores, and we want to be high flying, and
we want to be an offense and this and that
and the other thing. Well, that's great, but that might
(16:33):
get you fired in two years. Okay, Like you got
to be a solid foundational team, and in football, the
foundation is the lines on both sides of the ball.
So you know, I think that this is one of
those picks that, you know, if you're talking about, like
with a top five pick, trying to get a blue chipper.
I think that this is pretty safe in that regard,
whereas let's say you do go with a Ted McMillan
(16:55):
and you take that gamble. You know, I've even seen
some stuff that says, you know, GENTI could go there.
I mean, I'm so anti running back early. It's not
even funny. It's the most ridiculous thing ever. And I
don't listen again, not to take away from Genty and
how good he can be or will be, it's just
ridiculous to do it when these guys have like career
spans of like four years, it's absurd to do so.
(17:17):
And then with the wide receiver thing, it's just way
more hit or miss than an interior defensive lineman. So
just take Mason Graham. You know. So part of me
is like I'm projecting what I think they should do,
and I'm betting in that way. But you know, I
think that's that's a pretty good price there.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Graham is definitely a take your vegetables pick. He is
I think the last blue chipper. I think there's five
in this class. He's, like you said, a little smaller
than Q, but man, he gets to the quarterback. And
we've seen last year a team rule of trenches, the
Eagles dominating on both sides of the ball right at
the point of attack. Jalen Carr is a little bit
of a different animal because he is just an Adonis.
(17:57):
He is on a I don't want to I mean,
I'll invoke the name. He's on an Aaron Donald like trajectory.
The amount of chaos he creates right right at the
point of attack. And I think Mason Graham unlike, he's not.
People are gonna see DT next to his name and
they're gonna think like fat guy, three tech run stuffing player,
(18:18):
but he's not that. He is elusive and quick and
a pass rusher, and yeah, I think he's going to
be really good player in this league.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I just I just don't.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
See a thirty four year old GM and a thirty
nine year old offensive head coach doing this.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
I came into today very interested.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
In Calvin Banks, the tackle out of Texas who I
think him and Tet have the most egregious prospect fatigue
going into the drafts because all those two players did
was played great throughout their collegiate career. The model I
was referencing earlier from my guy JJ has Tet as
the exact same score as Roma Dunze last year. Essentially,
(19:01):
Roman Douonda was the eighth overall pick in an insane
class where three quarterbacks went off the board immediately, and
he was going up against Smartvin Harrison Junior and Malik
Neighbors and still found a way to go eighth in
that class. So I'm all aboard tech top ten another
Discord special. We were touting this at plus four hundred
(19:23):
in the Discord. I think the general draft community has
way too much fatigue on a guy who. I mean,
he just looks like Mike Evans, right, He's not super athletic,
but he just has insanely long strides. He's tall as hell,
and he goes up and gets the ball, And honestly,
he would be a great pair with BTJ, who could
(19:43):
then be a slot only player. You've got this safety
who what the hell do they do?
Speaker 3 (19:50):
Right?
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Do they drop in on Crossers on BTJ or do
they stay deep for TET trying to take the top off.
I think they would be a great pairing. But Kelvin Banks,
Kelvin Banks today on DraftKings went from plus thirty five
hundred to plus thirteen hundred based upon some of this
team that was coming out. So what I'm going to
(20:10):
do is, I think any offensive player is a worthwhile punt. Still,
thirteen hundred's rough. I think TET plus seven hundred. I
even think Tyler Warren plus nineteen hundred might be worth
a punt that's on fandle that number for the Jags
in this spot. And because Calvin Banks is getting all
this five steam, I actually think he is a good
(20:30):
click for the Las Vegas Raiders in the next spot
at plus nineteen hundred best price on FANDEL. I think
TET is a fine sprinkle here as well at plus
twenty three hundred on FANDEL. Because I don't think Tom
Brady is going to be in the room have any
kind of decision power, and like you said, Donnie, tell
(20:52):
these guys to draft a running back, Like do you
think Tom Brady wants to spend the sixth overall pick
running back, Spy Tech, who's the new GM. He might
was in Tampa last year, was part of a team
that punted on running back. Took all those guys late
that had success on that team, and then Pete Carroll.
(21:13):
The last time Pete Carroll made a first round pick
for the Seattle Seahawks, it was Charles Cross.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
It was alignment.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
He saw the success. So I really think that the
Raiders can go Lineman here. There's a lot of memboos
to him, but that's why I'm I'm pivoting to Banks.
Banks just has a better price. Say with teppan Begem,
what are your thoughts on your now hometown Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
I mean, I think they take gent one is institutional stupidity.
I don't care that Tom Brady's going to be in
the room. The Raiders are the Raiders, and until they
prove me wrong, I'm not gonna say that they're going
to be anything different. I do think that Brady like
would probably be one of those people who, weirdly would
tell you that the run game is extremely important, not
(21:54):
that the run game isn't important. I agree that having
a run game is a good thing to have now
where we disagree is you don't need to take the
number six pick and use that to develop said run game.
You know, you can basically build an offensive line and
plug either Richer myself behind the line and we'll get
it done like that. You know, if you just build
(22:14):
the the you know, the great Cowboys offensive line for example,
then your your problem is solved and then you can,
you know, spend the money there and not on the
running back who's you know, probably gonna deteriorate shorter than
a lot of other positions. That's just how it is.
But you know, I think coupled with the fact that
knowing what we know from of Pete Carroll, you know,
(22:35):
from the Seattle days, I mean, he's run and play
d like I like, unless unless he again somehow proves
me wrong. But I have nothing to show me that
he's gonna prove me wrong. Like what was he doing
in his time off? You know, I know that I
guess the the one comparison that you would make to
(22:55):
rebut that argument would be when Mike McCarthy was like,
oh I spent time learning the new offenses or whatever. Yeah,
and then he came back and he was still the
same old Dan Mike McCarthy. It's like, are these guys
really gonna change? I mean, how old is Pete Carroll
seventy five? There's no way he's changing his ways in
my opinion, like he's just gonna be the same thing.
And you know, I think the Raiders right now have
(23:18):
a somewhat decent offensive line and they might think, well,
this guy Janti is just incredible, right, so if we
plug him back there, we were really bad when it
comes to running the ball effectively. Last year. We let
our guy go and he had a good year in
Green Bay. Jacobs, you know, we need to plug that in.
We have Bowers if we believe in Bowers as much
(23:42):
as we think that the Raiders do, and I think
that there's no reason that they shouldn't believe in Bowers,
and they have some belief in Jacoby Myers, and then
obviously they have belief in Gino Smith bringing him in,
and they think the offensive line is halfway decent, well,
they might talk themselves into the fact that listen, this
is the spot, right or we're gonna have to take
(24:03):
the running back Who's everyone is saying like the next
greatest thing. So I still think they go there that said,
you know, I also talked about the institutional stupidity. I mean,
I would not rule it out that they draft Ted
McMillan here, Like, I mean, they like they do wacky,
wild things, and they're like, well, what if we get
(24:23):
Ted and we pair them with Jacoby and Brock Bowers
and we got Gino.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
Let's go.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
I think Ted is a perfect fit for Gino, right,
because Gino will climb the pocket and throw the ball downfield,
and I think Ted has the He is the type
of prospect that I can see being a very good
downfield player in the NFL and could be a great
fit with Gino Smith. I mean, you know what the
ultimate Galaxy brain the Raiders are idiot's pick is it's
(24:48):
Tyler Warren. Right, if they just go to tight end
with Warren and Bowers, that's the ultimate. But I mean
Brady had Gronk and Hernandoz, so I mean, if there
is a galaxy brain mind blown outcome for the Raiders,
it could be it could be Tyler Warren at six
(25:09):
in Las Vegas.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
I'm gonna keep the old listen.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
While I think they're gonna take gent like it. Also,
what if the Jaguars want to trade out. What if
somebody wants Gent and they're like, well, the Raiders are
gonna take him, let's just go up and get the
Jags pick. And the Jags are like, okay, that's fine,
Like we weren't super in love with Mason Graham or whoever,
you know, so we'll just get some more capital and
move back. And then somebody jumps off, like there's there's
always that type of wild card scenarios that could happen.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Yeah, I and the Chador thing. At some point, somebody
is going to make a move for Shador. And like
I said earlier, right now, the inflection point is pick
nine with the Saints. Everyone is pointing towards the Saints
and the fact that they might need a quarterback with
the steric Carr injury. And the other thing about the
Saints that other teams are very aware of is that
(25:58):
Mickey Loomis will just get his guy. The Saints are
very famous for trading up and getting their guy. We
saw it with Davenport. I think we saw it with
Michael Thomas, Like they are not afraid to have three
picks in the draft because they traded up and got
the player that they wanted.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
In the first round.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
So it could even be the Saints themselves that just say,
you know what, enough is enough. We're gonna get Shador
and call him our guy. I'm gonna go real quick.
I'm very offensive line heavy for this first round. And
one of my favorite bets that I saw on FANDLE
is that both Banks and Membo will be top ten
picks at plus two twenty. And I really, I really
(26:38):
like this because these two players are pretty much what
you would want in a tackle prospect. With Membo, the
biggest issue people are going to have is that he's
only played right tackle throughout his career in college. But
if the Jets don't go down the Warren route, for example,
they have a gaping hole at right tackle that Membu
(26:59):
could be plug and play on day one. So you've
got the upside in pick seven there. And I just
think Calvin Banks is again it's just massive prospect fatigue.
This guy, multi year starter at Texas in the SEC,
no issues whatsoever.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
He's I think he was like an.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Eight raz athlete, like just a really good player, and
I don't see him escaping out of the top ten.
So I like this parlay at plus two twenty and
then towards the back end of the first round, We've
got a Chiefs team that has tried to sewn up
offensive line a little bit here in the offseason, but
had a massive, massive hole last year in the Super
(27:39):
Bowl which was fully exposed by an Eagles team who
let Makai Beckton walk and is always looking to recycle
up front. So I think they are both candidates to
take offensive line. And I just can't see Josh Connerley
out of Oregon falling out of the first round with
(28:00):
his ability at tackle. Eight point eighty five rass athlete.
He's the third tackle on my guy Connor Rodgers's big board.
He played running back in high school. This guy is
like the definition of a dancing bear who can go
out there and just look super agile and still has
(28:22):
a ton of growth potential because he hasn't like filled
out into his body. So this is minus two twenty.
You are laying a bit of juice, which I do
not like doing in the draft, but I just don't
see a prospect of his ability, size, stature, and athleticism
falling out of the first round. So I've got him
at minus two twenty. You, however, you're a little bearish
(28:43):
on o line. You think under six and a half
will be taken on Thursday night.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
Yeah, I mean I think the position from everything that
I'm seeing, is not as deep at the top part
of the draft, you know. So I don't think people
are gonna, you know, in the late first round be
reaching a little bit as much as they might, you know,
for some other positions, Like I think edge rusher's pretty
(29:08):
deep for the high end, and you know, I think
that's a value position for a lot of these teams.
You know, you hear pretty much time and time again,
you can never have enough good edg rushers, obviously. I
think a lot of people, you know, recency bias, right,
I think a lot of people saw what the Eagles
did in the Super Bowl with that defensive line, and
it's like, okay, we need that, right, we need that,
(29:31):
which is like, yeah, they have a lot of really
good guys, but they have a lot of them too,
and they just keep throwing people at you from all
different angles, and like, so how do we get that. Okay,
let's try and find those types of guys, you know.
So I think five or six feels decent enough to
take plus one oh five there at the under six
and a half. You know, it's not like an outlandis price.
(29:55):
You're still getting plus money, so I think it's fine.
I also think that, you know, there's gonna be some
spots where I think teams get again, probably a little
bit crazy, you know, over their skis. Like I look
at the Cowboys, I think they'll probably splurge on a
running back, you know, even though I wouldn't again do
(30:15):
that in the first round, you know, I would just
get running backs later. I think, you know, you mentioned
Burden like, like, you know, I think Tech McMillan goes
obviously pretty early. That's what I'm hoping for at least,
and then you know, you'll probably get some people that
talk themselves into two or three other wide receivers. Same
sort of thing with Jackson Dart, you know, like I
(30:37):
think somebody ends up talking themselves into Jackson Dart. And
what I'm getting at here is like five, six, seven
picks are now off the board that can't go to
an offensive line, right, so it's just filling up the
space there and removing the potential and allowing me to
hit that under is kind of where I'm at with
this whole thing.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Yeah, you look at receiver. This is both first round
and the last round second round last year. Starting at
pick twenty eight, five of the next seven picks where
Xavier Worthy, Ricky Piersoll, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Lad McConaughey.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
A couple of picks later was Jalen Polk.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
So we know the wide receiver run is going to
happen at the late end of the first round. It's
just like you said, when does it start and how
hard does the avalanche cross crash? Because yes, Ted is
probably the only high end prospects like you said, but
(31:35):
people are absolutely salivating over the next tier of receivers
in this draft, and it spans from like Matthew Golden
all the way to I would even say like like
a Jack Besh or a Jalen Noel. Like there's a
good group of damn near double digit receivers that based
(31:58):
on what they do, they don't all play the same
role in the receiver room, but they're all very talented
in their own right and can find starting roles in
the NFL. That there is going to be a run
at some point on receivers and it's going to be
whether or not it's going to be the end of
the first or closer to the second round. We do agree, however,
on defensive line and the amount of guys and the
(32:21):
amount of talent that is going to be selected in
the first round, because I've got a matchup that was
listed on draft Kings that Walter Nolan will be drafted
before Simmons, the kid, the tackle out of Ohio State,
and again minus two fifty. Don't love laying juice, but
one thing I've come to realize when it comes to
the NFL Draft is that a player like Josh Simmons,
(32:44):
we can get really excited about what he looked like
pre injury, and he was very good at Ohio State.
But I think these teams take medicals and red flags,
especially a knee, very very very seriously. And I don't
know if the draft community, who are always looking for
upside and always looking for the positives, and the greater
(33:06):
betting community are really putting that into a wager such
as this. They're both favored, very favored to go in
the first round. No one's minus eight hundred, Simmons is
minus seven to fifty. I wish there was a market
for Simmons going in the second round because I think
it like if that wide receiver Avalanche hits and people
(33:28):
were just worried about that medical I can certainly see
Simmons slipping to the top end of the second round.
And like you said, after watching the Eagles dominate up
front on the defensive trenches, I don't see a world
where a player like Walter Nolan doesn't get selected in
the first.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Round of this draft.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
So I've got that, And you've got D line over
eight and a half, A lot of big boys going
in the first round.
Speaker 1 (33:55):
Yeah, well, I mean it's it's D line slash edge,
so for sure. Yeah, I mean you get Michael Williams,
Do you get do you get to this? Is?
Speaker 2 (34:04):
I wonder how they great this. I wonder how they're
gonna Drad Javon Walker. Javon Walker technically an off ball linebacker,
but people seem to think he's gonna play edge and
the lee. Yeah, you've got Michael Williams, Shamar Stewart. There
there are so many freaks that are gonna come flying
off the board.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
Yeah, And I think again, this is a position that
I think it was always a premium position, but I
think it's it's even growing even more so. You know, again,
I think I think the NFL is a bit of
a copycat league. And you know, it's like also that
thought of what have you done for me lately? Meaning
(34:40):
the recency bias again pointing to the Eagles. That defensive
line was ridiculous in the Super Bowl, and that's what
everyone remembers all the time, So like how do we
build that? You know, there's also like some of the
best players in the NFL right now, are you know
those edge rushers, those defensive linemen, the Max Crosbys of
the world, right you know, so like how do we
(35:02):
get those guys? You know that type of guys. Of course,
we know Abdul Carter is going super early, right and
I think at some point, you know, a lot of
teams are just going to try and fill this role.
And you know, I think this also kind of works
as a nice pairing with if I'm going under on
a position, well, I need to feel find something to
(35:23):
kind of fill the over right that that makes sense
in my mind. So this is where I think there's
a good shot at it. Now I'm also paying for
it minus two seventy, you know, but it is what
it is. I think there's some some decent value there.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
Okay, let let me get you guys out of here
on my Fight one Jets Drive. Lauren Park, New Jersey
has been on complete lockdown ever since Aaron Glenn and
Darren Mujie were hired as head coach and GM. Honestly,
(35:58):
the only things that have leaked out of there have
been extremely minor. And there's been a lot of smoke
to start this week about the kid baron cornerback slash
safety potentially being a selection, and I just don't buy it.
(36:19):
This building has not leaked anything, so the fact that
some random player is coming out of nowhere and potentially
being the pick, I personally don't buy it. I think
they're doing everything they can to hide there over the
moon infatuation for Tyler Warren. Tyler Warren was the only
visit Tyler Warren made was to New Jersey to see
(36:43):
the New York Jets. Tanner anstreng being a former tight
ends coach now offensive coordinator, being with the Lions and
watching the impact that San Laporta had on that team,
I just think it fits glove in hand. I'm not
the biggest fan because a positional value. I'd rather see
them take a tackle at seven, but I guess you
(37:06):
could sell me if Warren is a better athlete than
I think that he is an okay pick at seven,
and he I mean, he asked to have a direct
impact day one. If you're going to pick him at seven,
he's essentially going to have like the ninth highest salary
at the position on day one, just because of the
way the rookie salary works and because of how low
tight ends are paid. So I still think Warren plus
(37:30):
three hundred for the pick is not terrible. All of
that being said, Darren Mugie was in the room when
the Denver Broncos took Javonte Williams of the second round pick.
Aaron Glenn was in the room when the Detroit Lions
took Jamira Gibbs despite already having David Montgomery. I don't
think Ashton gent plus three thousand is an insane wager
(37:54):
for the Jets at seven. I think there is a
world where they try to make Genty and Breee a thing,
maybe even trade Breess this is the last year of
his contract. But Mujie and Glenn, both having scouting backgrounds,
I typically see this from a lot of scouts. When
(38:16):
they make their big boards, they don't consider positional value.
They just say, these are the dudes that are the
best at football, right, Like, no matter what, these guys
are going to be good at what they're supposed to do.
And I can see Glenn and Mugie if it's on
them at seven and Ashton Genty is on the board
(38:36):
looking at one another and saying, this dude is the
best football player available. We're just gonna take him. So
it's a punt. I think it's a punt. I think
they do love Warren. But like if you told me
that these idiots took a running back with the seventh
overall pick because they think he's the best football player
(38:57):
in the draft, I wouldn't think you're great, but I
would be pissed, donn like you, I would be apoplectic
if was the selection.
Speaker 1 (39:08):
Yeah, I mean, okay, I mean, but this is also
a spot where I could see the Jets trading out.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
To please please, I'm begging somebody, please please trade because
we can get Warren in the low teens.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
Probably.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Yeah, I mean I think generally this this draft to
me feels like a trade back draft in general, I
just I'm not I if it was me and I
like had my pick of player, I would just pick
Abduel Carter. I think he's the like the number one
Blue Chipper in this draft, you know. I think Travis
(39:46):
Hunter is right there as well. And then other than that,
I mean I don't necessarily know. So I would just
always in this specific draft be looking for spots to
trade back, acquire more capital, and go that way. Like
you know, I think I think you see it. You
see it every year, you know, and but I think
that this year it's it's probably emphasized the most by
(40:08):
cam Ward is that people just talk themselves into these
players and then they move up and up and up
and up. I mean, the biggest one that I can
remember was Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Remember they were
like round two selections and all of a sudden it
was like, Nope, they're going to go one and two.
Like it was like where where did that come from?
Because you just you need the quarterback, you need that,
(40:30):
and then you just talk yourself into it, right, So
so yeah, I would just be kind of approaching this
whole thing like it would just be a trade back opportunity.
Speaker 2 (40:39):
Yeah, fingers crossed. I'm hoping somebody falls in love with Ashton. Gents,
Chicago Bears, come on down, give us was it pick ten,
pick ten and a fourth rounder to move up three spots,
please begging it?
Speaker 3 (40:54):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
I have a question for you, shoot, would you would
you rather be an overvalued cam Ward who is probably
like he's yes, he's the best quarterback in the draft,
but he might not be worthy of the number one pick?
Is kind of what I'm getting at? Or would you
like to be on the other side where you're an
(41:15):
undervalued sitar standers and you slide like like with cam Ward,
there's gonna be the expectation of a number one pick,
yet he might not.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
He might not.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
That might be incorrect to give that him that expectation. Yes,
he technically goes number one on the board, but is
he really like is should he be like a Peyton
Manning type whatever?
Speaker 3 (41:34):
Like?
Speaker 1 (41:34):
Probably not no, But we're gonna hold him to that
because we're gonna say he's the number one pick. Whereas
if you're Shador and he falls to like who knows
twenty one where the Steelers are or something like it,
then it's gonna be like, Oh, he's he's the underdog
now like, so, which which one would you rather be?
Speaker 2 (41:50):
Well, it's also nature versus nurture, right, we look back
at the Lamar Jackson class. He falls to a team
with unbelievable institutional stability, great coaching, and a great environment.
So there might be paths where Lamar Jackson doesn't turn
into the player that we think he is today. But
he landed in the perfect environment and took advantage of it.
(42:12):
So that's the other added ass that you get when
you fall, right, because you don't go to a team
who sucks.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
The Titans suck.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
They are a bad football team, So you have to
not only overcome the expectation, but you have to overcome
the fact that you were on a team that was
the worst in the NFL last year.
Speaker 3 (42:28):
So I think falling.
Speaker 2 (42:31):
Probably gives you a better chance if the talent gap
isn't as demonstrative. I think what gets interesting is if
you're like the first pick of the second round, because
then you don't get the fifth year option, right, so
you can get to free agency faster. So I think
I would rather be pick thirty three and try to
(42:53):
get to free agency first. And if I'm good, then
I can get a larger contract faster than cam Ward.
But I think in general, sliding's better. You're gonna land
on a better team, maybe even a team that trades
up for you, right where they come in from the
second round to try to get that fifth year option,
and maybe they made a good pick early on, like
the Browns for example, Like if the Browns go Travis
(43:15):
Hunter and trade back in for Chadur Sanders, they already
have a very good defense, they already have a very
good head coach. You can sit behind I guess you
can sit behind Kenny Pickett for a little bit. I guess.
I guess they can roll out thicket, right is it?
Kenny Pickett Week one in Cleveland? But you have Travis Hunter,
and you have some good talent Cedric Tillman, Jerry Judy,
(43:37):
like there's some there's some pieces there in good coaching.
I think that's much better than like getting picked by
the Saints, who we are in absolute cap hell and
have a Crystal lave who's one hit away from no
longer being in the league. Like, yeah, I think sliding
is probably preferable if you're not an elite, elite talent
just because of landing spot.
Speaker 3 (43:59):
What about you? Where do you lent?
Speaker 1 (44:00):
I honestly don't know. I've been thinking about it, like,
and I wanted to ask because I'm kind of thinking
about it. I mean, I kind of would rather slide,
you know again, be that underdog type of story who
can eventually come out and say, you know, I should
have been a top ten pick. You guys are all idiots, like,
look at me now type of thing versus you know,
(44:21):
if you're cam Ward and you don't live up to
that number one draft pick expectation, you know, it's just
always going to live with you, even if you have
like a pretty good career, like you know, what if
he turns out to be I don't know, just a nice,
serviceable like tenth best QB in the league, people are
(44:45):
still going to say, well, he's not He's not Patrick Mahomes,
he's not Josh Allen, he's not, like, because that's what
you expect from the number one pick. So it's it's
it's a tricky spot, right, So I just wouldn't want
that on me, you know. And obviously there's nothing he
can do about it, Like he doesn't control how these
teams view things. How they they go after that unicorn
(45:06):
that is the the you know, the franchise quarterback, the
Hall of Famer. So yeah, he's just in a bad spot.
Now that's not to say the kid isn't incredible and
turns out to be incredible. I'm just saying, where would
you you want to be? Type of thing. So it's
it's certainly not fun. I'll say that much.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
I want to put this on wax. Kevin Clark said
something similar and I've I've been saying something to that effect. Again,
I just want this to be on the record. I
think cam Ward is the most Patrick Mahomes prospect there
has been since Patrick Mahomes in that because my wife,
(45:44):
Jenna was working at the U for the past two
years now now we're back in California, but she was
at the U.
Speaker 3 (45:50):
I watched the U.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
I picked up Miami as a team to root for
a little bit, and when Cam made mistakes, it was
because Cam knew the only way Miami was gonna win
a football game is if he threw for three point
fifty and four touchdowns, that their defense was so bad
and that their skill position players were so mid that
(46:12):
there was only one path to victory, and that was
cam Ward bawling out. So yeah, when you see the
crossfield pick six against Cal, a game in which, by
the way, Miami came back from like a twenty one
point deficit and one on the road and one of
the longest trips in all of college football from Miami
to Berkeley. How that's a conference game, Lord knows. But
(46:36):
his mistakes were a guy thinking it through and saying, well,
I have to take a calculated risk. Somebody's down there,
let me make a throw. So I think this dude
has a very live arm. I think he's athletic, accurate,
and I think the dude is pretty freaking smart too,
Like he had autonomy at the line. He was changing
(46:58):
plays in college, which is not something you see. But
a multiple year player who started at something incarnate Ward
and had to work his way up to getting to
Miami through the transfer portal. I'm rooting for camp Ward.
I think he has a shot to be a good
quarterback in this league. So we'll leave it at that.
Best of luck, Best of luck in your betting ventures.
(47:21):
Please console me if the Jets do actually take ashon.
Speaker 3 (47:24):
Jet with this, I'm gonna need it. Prettyp Im rich
he
The Welcome back to.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Airn Cambell, the only podcast that put its money where
its mouth is. I'm your host, rich Ron, and I'm
joined by one member of the collective, Donnie DP Peters.
Moe is gallivanting in Galway or some green pastor in
the island of Ireland.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
Brett.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
I don't know he's maintaining the farm. I don't know
if there's any snow recently. Another snow like two weekends
ago in New Jersey, so might be dealing with some
snow still up in Buffalo. So it's just Donnie and
I here to give you some draft takes. If you
are watching this on YouTube, please like the video and
subscribe to the channel. Listeners rate and review on your
(00:58):
Podcatter of Choice five stars on like Heisman Trophy winner
and presumptive number two overall selection Travis Hunter and Donnie
and I are going to dig into some of these
draft props, but not before Donnie and I air some grievances.
(01:18):
Grievances Grievanson's Wow, I think I butchered it again in
this market, because it seems like this year, more than ever,
these books are terrified of listing props, of taking action
I saw our guy, and he is our guy. I
love this dude. I love Jeffrey Benson. I love how
he goes at people on Twitter. I generally think the
(01:41):
folks at Circa do a great job of bookmaking, especially
in markets like this, and are more willing to take
on risk than others.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
Benson was complaining, books hate this.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
We're gonna lose five or six figures on the draft,
and so what like, get out there, set some good
line and do some trading like a real book should,
and let's go.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
This is the This is Donnie.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
This is one of the one opportunities where because there's
information trading that I feel like betters can actually have
a substantial edge when it comes down to games, especially
in the NFL, we're dealing with razor thin margins in
the outcomes of these contests. But when it comes to
you know, putting the puzzle together information sharing, I feel
(02:27):
like people can find an edge in these markets and
it's just up to the books to set good lines
and trade.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Come on, guys, sports betting is lame. Now, what do
you want me to say? I'm gonna here's my take.
Sports betting was better when the illegal offshores were in
charge regulation mo Is on the podcast Regulation. This is
my new take regulation. All these greedy corporations have have
(02:55):
killed everything. They've taken the fun out of it. As
somebody who likes to bet for fun, seriously, yes, but
for fun, it's becoming very not fun. I mean, you
start winning, they just ban you cool. That's ridiculous. You
can't find any good lines anywhere, like and it's not
(03:15):
even like I mean, I was looking around the different
books for the draft stuff and it's first of all,
the lines are just horrible because, like you said that,
it seems like they're just very scared. Second of all,
there's just not a lot like this is this is
the only NFL event for months on either side that
it should be like a Super Bowl type of offering.
(03:38):
A buffet. You walk in you can't eat enough, Like
why isn't there just like NonStop stuff everywhere. It's just
it's just not available. And I think that, I don't know,
maybe they're just too timid, scared. I don't know, but
it's not it's becoming less and less fun. And I
can only blame the fact that when the corporations get involved,
(03:59):
they tend to ruin everything gotta.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
Get those margins, Gotta make sure the shareholders are happy,
Gotta get those SCPs going. And again, like you said,
I'm a casual gamer when I am in an eligible state,
when I'm down in Florida with my folks, I love
firing up an SGP on hard rock hand raised, but
at least give me some decent odds. At least give
(04:22):
me like a plus five thousand when it's a plus
five thousand. Don't give me like twenty five hundred, give
me half odds because you're just chasing profit margins.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Get out of here with that.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
And that's I think another reason why we support Circus
so much, because they very much treat this as bookmaking
and trading first, and they think their long term view
is that if they cater to people who want to
bet on good lines, if they do that well enough
that they can dominate enough of the market share within
(04:54):
that context to have success. And I'm certainly rooting four
Benson and that crew, even if I get to complain
about them during the draft season. A good example of
this is, like, so a player like Luther Burdon, Luthor
burdon the third DA Missouri, my guy JJ Zachereson in
his model, Burden is the best receiver in this class,
even if you include Travis Hunter as a wide receiver
(05:17):
based on this is all based on stats, height, weight,
and there are some athletic testing in there. And I've
seen folks out there who think Burden is a tremendous player.
But there is a lot of stuff about Burden where
he kind of took his last season off after exploding
on the scene in his sophomore season, took some plays off,
(05:40):
took some routes off, some character concerns. This would be
a classic example of bookmaking where you have this great
talent with a lot of red flags, and setting a
market for him is quite ambiguous, and it will take
some skill to set a market. And there's definitely very
strong right tail out and very strong left tail outcomes,
(06:02):
and it.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Would be fun to gamble on it.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
It would be fun to have like adjusted Luther Bird
in lines as to what pick position he will be
selected in. But instead in all these major markets they
just remove his name from the board instead of actually
doing some trading and actually doing some book more. Okay,
let's we got that off our chest. That was six
(06:23):
minutes of complaining, let's talk about the actual draft itself.
It seems as if, and I think you agree with
me with what you had just sent me before record,
it seems as if the draft starts at pick number five,
and I got to give a shout out to the discord.
I am patting myself on the back here a little bit.
(06:44):
Look at the description for a link, or just go
to bit dot l y slash discord moose we were
on at least I was cam Ward first quarterback taken
minus three hundred months ago. I was in there saying
it is in saying in any universe that as quarterback
prospects for the NFL that cam Ward is any way
(07:07):
comparable to Shad or Sanders. And now it looks as
if the slide is on for Coach Prime's son, where
I'm seeing his draft number in the mid to low teens,
the biggest inflection point being the New Orleans Saints at nine.
But I feel like a lot of people are doing
some dot connecting there with the Derek car injury, and
(07:30):
I could see door falling even further. But if you
were in the discord, you could have grabbed cam Ward
minus three hundred first quarterback taken now he's it's OTB.
I won't even tout this one.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
You can get.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Better than whatever return on investment you were getting for
cam Ward first quarterback, cam Ward first pick. But it
seems as if consensus is Ward Hunter Carter Campbell will
be the first four picks. A lot of smoke for
Campbell being the selection for the New England Patriots there
at four. And I know your fandom is less so now,
(08:03):
but what are your thoughts on the tackle being linked
with Rabel and New England. I think there's a lot
of concern. I don't think. I know there's a lot
of concern with his arm length, specifically his wingspan. He
has and this is true, a zero percentile wingspan zero Donnie.
(08:25):
There's never been a person, if he takes a snap
in the NFL at tackle, who has had a wingspan
smaller than Will Campbell. So a lot of concerns there.
But it seems like he's going to.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
Be the pick at four for your New England Patriots.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Yeah, it does seem like it's trending that way. I
know you mentioned that the draft starts at five, it
probably starts at four and a half. For me, I
just think that there's still a chance, and a fairly
decent one, that the Patriots just trade out of this
pick at four, and I'm interested to see what that happens.
I think the top three are locked. I think the
(09:00):
odds also reflect that, as you pointed out, and then
I think for is you know, it's i mean, what
twenty percent chance they trade out something like that, you know,
so we'll see how it goes. I think the Will
Campbell to the Patriots is the quote unquote safe pick, right.
I mean, he they need to you know, improve the
(09:20):
offensive line for sure, in front of Drake Maye. They
got to protect the guy. This is supposed to be
the best one in the draft. Okay, you take that.
It's great. Now my issue with taking Will Campbell, if
I'm the Patriots, is that the number four pick, you
need a guy who plays day one, snap one and
(09:40):
is an impact player. Now Will Campbell can certainly be that, yes,
But and listen, I'm not you know, an expert NFL
draft scout any of that sort of stuff. But you know,
you just hear you hear enough negative that it makes
you question if he is that you know, day one
app one starter, you know, potential Hall of Fame, career,
(10:04):
et cetera, blah blah blah, which you should try and
land with the number four pick. So if there is
any concern, I would if I was them, I wouldn't
lean to just make the pick because it's ultimately the
safest pick and yes, even if it doesn't work out,
we're probably not gonna get killed for it in the
long run. I would lean to, like, listen, with that pick,
(10:25):
we need a freaking blue chipper, And if this guy
isn't a blue chipper ninety nine percent of the way there,
then I'll just I'll take the draft capital and try
and do something else right like that would be my
take on it. So that's why I say that. You know,
for me, I'm really interested to see what they do. Yes,
i know everything is trending in the way that Will
Campbell gets drafted by the Patriots, but I'm still curious
(10:48):
if they do. You know what, if somebody just steps
in and tries to blow them out of the water
for whatever freaking reason, These teams get a little bit
crazy in the draft sometimes you never know, So I
would be curious to see if they end up do
staying there. So I'm going to be certainly watching the
number four pick pretty intently on Day one.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Yeah, I think the scenario there, and boys, it's smoke season.
The these next few days, I'm seeing a ton of
smoke for the Jags taking an offensive player at five.
And the quote that I heard is that the Jacksonville
Jaguars want somebody who can score touchdowns, which they have
(11:24):
a thirty four year old GM and off their new
head coach is a thirty nine year old former offensive coordinator.
So I believe it if those two guys, if they're objective,
if they wrote on the whiteboard the first thing we
want to score. It's like the Billy Bean thing, right,
Billy Bean the scene for Moneyball runs. We want runs,
(11:47):
And it seems simple, but it's a pretty good strategy
when we know how valuable offense is in this league,
and we know when you got a guy like Trevor Lawrence,
we should lean into that and try to score as
many points as possible and get Trevor Lawrence as much
help as possible. So all that to say, I think
what you're hoping for, Donnie, is that that smoke starts
(12:08):
to leak, whether be Jens or tet who are the
top skill position players at their respective positions that you,
as a Patriots fan, want somebody to get jittery and
move up ahead of Jacksonville to take one of those players.
I think that's the scenario in which the Patriots get
a chance to slide back. And the Campbell conversation is
fascinating because it's the ultimate ball knower versus excel nerd
(12:32):
argument because multiple year starter in the SEC at LSU,
all SEC player, the dude put on good tape.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
He played very good football.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
But there's just a ton of skeptics when it comes
to somebody of that size. And I've seen even people
that don't even guard him as a tackle in this class.
They straight up just guarach grade him, excuse me, greade
him as a tackle. They grade him as a guard
in this class. So when that starts to be the
conversation and oh, if he doesn't work out tackle, we
could just kick him inside, that starts to get really worrisome,
(13:03):
especially like you said, at pick number four, this isn't
like a mid first round pick, like you need pick
number four to be impactful, like you said on day one.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
So also just quickly, this is why the stupid New
England Patriots should have got the same way hundred percent.
Why you get because now you're not in this stupid
position that you just have the number one pick, and yeah,
maybe you just take abdul Carter and say f everyone else.
Maybe you just be like, listen, who wants it, Let's
(13:33):
go show us the best offer. We'll drop back, No
big deal. But now you're stuck in like this weird
middle ground where you know, listen, there's again, there's enough
out there now from respectable people and experts in the
space that study this stuff for months and months and
months on end, that you can go either way with
Will Campbell. Yes, he might be great and he might
turn out to be a Hall of Famer. That's that's
(13:55):
not to take anything away from the kid, but there's
enough that says that he, like you said, he might
be a guard. At the end of the day, his
arms might not be too long. Like you just don't know,
you know. And that's what happens when you screw up
the season and you drop to number.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Four zero percentile wingspan zero zero.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
You put thh I can find that a little bit crazy.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
To zero.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
It's just that, like in all these sports, you see
all these people who overcome like different things. You know, basketball,
you see like the super short guy who's amazing, you know,
you have won on your team, Brunson, he's freaking, you know, incredible,
But he's a midget. I mean that's just how it is,
you know, like you see it everywhere with all these
different players. You know, and like this guy, because his
(14:41):
arm length is a few inches shorter, he can't be good.
What if he's just really really good. I mean that
could also certainly be the case. And then we're all like,
that was the dumbest thing in the world, you know,
talking about his arm length for you know, six months.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
Okay, let's talk jags specifically. Then you went full chalk.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
You're going for the Ward Hunter Carter Campbell, Graham Parlay
at plus one ninety. Why do you think they're going
to go Graham with this pig.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
I think it's kind of safe, you know. Part of
me says, I'm hedging a little bit because I do
have Ted McMillan as top ten and also under twelve
and a half, and that's part of my picks here.
And what I'll say with that is, I think there's
a shot that he could go five to the Jaguars,
(15:29):
so you know, and I have that at plus two
ten and then the under twelve and a half is
mine one twenty six. So you know, it's kind of
like there's a hedge there. Yes, I think probably at
the end of the day, they just picked the quote
unquote safer pick in Mason Graham. You know, I think
he's really good on the interior as a disruptor. You know,
(15:49):
he can just be an anchor on that side of
the ball. You know, I've seen comparisons to Williams, your
guy Q for the for the Jets. You know, maybe
not that good, but you know, the light version, I guess.
I mean, and this is a position that I think
if you, if you know football, you want to build
(16:12):
from the inside out, from the two lines, okay. And
I think that that coupled with the fact that they
have a new GM and a new coach, like they
should want to get it right from the start. And
I understand the talk of like we want, you know,
touchdown scores, and we want to be high flying, and
we want to be an offense and this and that
and the other thing. Well, that's great, but that might
(16:33):
get you fired in two years. Okay, Like you got
to be a solid foundational team, and in football, the
foundation is the lines on both sides of the ball.
So you know, I think that this is one of
those picks that, you know, if you're talking about, like
with a top five pick, trying to get a blue chipper.
I think that this is pretty safe in that regard,
whereas let's say you do go with a Ted McMillan
(16:55):
and you take that gamble. You know, I've even seen
some stuff that says, you know, GENTI could go there.
I mean, I'm so anti running back early. It's not
even funny. It's the most ridiculous thing ever. And I
don't listen again, not to take away from Genty and
how good he can be or will be, it's just
ridiculous to do it when these guys have like career
spans of like four years, it's absurd to do so.
(17:17):
And then with the wide receiver thing, it's just way
more hit or miss than an interior defensive lineman. So
just take Mason Graham. You know. So part of me
is like I'm projecting what I think they should do,
and I'm betting in that way. But you know, I
think that's that's a pretty good price there.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Graham is definitely a take your vegetables pick. He is
I think the last blue chipper. I think there's five
in this class. He's, like you said, a little smaller
than Q, but man, he gets to the quarterback. And
we've seen last year a team rule of trenches, the
Eagles dominating on both sides of the ball right at
the point of attack. Jalen Carr is a little bit
of a different animal because he is just an Adonis.
(17:57):
He is on a I don't want to I mean,
I'll invoke the name. He's on an Aaron Donald like trajectory.
The amount of chaos he creates right right at the
point of attack. And I think Mason Graham unlike, he's not.
People are gonna see DT next to his name and
they're gonna think like fat guy, three tech run stuffing player,
(18:18):
but he's not that. He is elusive and quick and
a pass rusher, and yeah, I think he's going to
be really good player in this league.
Speaker 3 (18:28):
I just I just don't.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
See a thirty four year old GM and a thirty
nine year old offensive head coach doing this.
Speaker 3 (18:36):
I came into today very interested.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
In Calvin Banks, the tackle out of Texas who I
think him and Tet have the most egregious prospect fatigue
going into the drafts because all those two players did
was played great throughout their collegiate career. The model I
was referencing earlier from my guy JJ has Tet as
the exact same score as Roma Dunze last year. Essentially,
(19:01):
Roman Douonda was the eighth overall pick in an insane
class where three quarterbacks went off the board immediately, and
he was going up against Smartvin Harrison Junior and Malik
Neighbors and still found a way to go eighth in
that class. So I'm all aboard tech top ten another
Discord special. We were touting this at plus four hundred
(19:23):
in the Discord. I think the general draft community has
way too much fatigue on a guy who. I mean,
he just looks like Mike Evans, right, He's not super athletic,
but he just has insanely long strides. He's tall as hell,
and he goes up and gets the ball, And honestly,
he would be a great pair with BTJ, who could
(19:43):
then be a slot only player. You've got this safety
who what the hell do they do?
Speaker 3 (19:50):
Right?
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Do they drop in on Crossers on BTJ or do
they stay deep for TET trying to take the top off.
I think they would be a great pairing. But Kelvin Banks,
Kelvin Banks today on DraftKings went from plus thirty five
hundred to plus thirteen hundred based upon some of this
team that was coming out. So what I'm going to
(20:10):
do is, I think any offensive player is a worthwhile punt. Still,
thirteen hundred's rough. I think TET plus seven hundred. I
even think Tyler Warren plus nineteen hundred might be worth
a punt that's on fandle that number for the Jags
in this spot. And because Calvin Banks is getting all
this five steam, I actually think he is a good
(20:30):
click for the Las Vegas Raiders in the next spot
at plus nineteen hundred best price on FANDEL. I think
TET is a fine sprinkle here as well at plus
twenty three hundred on FANDEL. Because I don't think Tom
Brady is going to be in the room have any
kind of decision power, and like you said, Donnie, tell
(20:52):
these guys to draft a running back, Like do you
think Tom Brady wants to spend the sixth overall pick
running back, Spy Tech, who's the new GM. He might
was in Tampa last year, was part of a team
that punted on running back. Took all those guys late
that had success on that team, and then Pete Carroll.
(21:13):
The last time Pete Carroll made a first round pick
for the Seattle Seahawks, it was Charles Cross.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
It was alignment.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
He saw the success. So I really think that the
Raiders can go Lineman here. There's a lot of memboos
to him, but that's why I'm I'm pivoting to Banks.
Banks just has a better price. Say with teppan Begem,
what are your thoughts on your now hometown Vegas Raiders.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
I mean, I think they take gent one is institutional stupidity.
I don't care that Tom Brady's going to be in
the room. The Raiders are the Raiders, and until they
prove me wrong, I'm not gonna say that they're going
to be anything different. I do think that Brady like
would probably be one of those people who, weirdly would
tell you that the run game is extremely important, not
(21:54):
that the run game isn't important. I agree that having
a run game is a good thing to have now
where we disagree is you don't need to take the
number six pick and use that to develop said run game.
You know, you can basically build an offensive line and
plug either Richer myself behind the line and we'll get
it done like that. You know, if you just build
(22:14):
the the you know, the great Cowboys offensive line for example,
then your your problem is solved and then you can,
you know, spend the money there and not on the
running back who's you know, probably gonna deteriorate shorter than
a lot of other positions. That's just how it is.
But you know, I think coupled with the fact that
knowing what we know from of Pete Carroll, you know,
(22:35):
from the Seattle days, I mean, he's run and play
d like I like, unless unless he again somehow proves
me wrong. But I have nothing to show me that
he's gonna prove me wrong. Like what was he doing
in his time off? You know, I know that I
guess the the one comparison that you would make to
(22:55):
rebut that argument would be when Mike McCarthy was like,
oh I spent time learning the new offenses or whatever. Yeah,
and then he came back and he was still the
same old Dan Mike McCarthy. It's like, are these guys
really gonna change? I mean, how old is Pete Carroll
seventy five? There's no way he's changing his ways in
my opinion, like he's just gonna be the same thing.
And you know, I think the Raiders right now have
(23:18):
a somewhat decent offensive line and they might think, well,
this guy Janti is just incredible, right, so if we
plug him back there, we were really bad when it
comes to running the ball effectively. Last year. We let
our guy go and he had a good year in
Green Bay. Jacobs, you know, we need to plug that in.
We have Bowers if we believe in Bowers as much
(23:42):
as we think that the Raiders do, and I think
that there's no reason that they shouldn't believe in Bowers,
and they have some belief in Jacoby Myers, and then
obviously they have belief in Gino Smith bringing him in,
and they think the offensive line is halfway decent, well,
they might talk themselves into the fact that listen, this
is the spot, right or we're gonna have to take
(24:03):
the running back Who's everyone is saying like the next
greatest thing. So I still think they go there that said,
you know, I also talked about the institutional stupidity. I mean,
I would not rule it out that they draft Ted
McMillan here, Like, I mean, they like they do wacky,
wild things, and they're like, well, what if we get
(24:23):
Ted and we pair them with Jacoby and Brock Bowers
and we got Gino.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
Let's go.
Speaker 2 (24:27):
I think Ted is a perfect fit for Gino, right,
because Gino will climb the pocket and throw the ball downfield,
and I think Ted has the He is the type
of prospect that I can see being a very good
downfield player in the NFL and could be a great
fit with Gino Smith. I mean, you know what the
ultimate Galaxy brain the Raiders are idiot's pick is it's
(24:48):
Tyler Warren. Right, if they just go to tight end
with Warren and Bowers, that's the ultimate. But I mean
Brady had Gronk and Hernandoz, so I mean, if there
is a galaxy brain mind blown outcome for the Raiders,
it could be it could be Tyler Warren at six
(25:09):
in Las Vegas.
Speaker 3 (25:10):
I'm gonna keep the old listen.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
While I think they're gonna take gent like it. Also,
what if the Jaguars want to trade out. What if
somebody wants Gent and they're like, well, the Raiders are
gonna take him, let's just go up and get the
Jags pick. And the Jags are like, okay, that's fine,
Like we weren't super in love with Mason Graham or whoever,
you know, so we'll just get some more capital and
move back. And then somebody jumps off, like there's there's
always that type of wild card scenarios that could happen.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Yeah, I and the Chador thing. At some point, somebody
is going to make a move for Shador. And like
I said earlier, right now, the inflection point is pick
nine with the Saints. Everyone is pointing towards the Saints
and the fact that they might need a quarterback with
the steric Carr injury. And the other thing about the
Saints that other teams are very aware of is that
(25:58):
Mickey Loomis will just get his guy. The Saints are
very famous for trading up and getting their guy. We
saw it with Davenport. I think we saw it with
Michael Thomas, Like they are not afraid to have three
picks in the draft because they traded up and got
the player that they wanted.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
In the first round.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
So it could even be the Saints themselves that just say,
you know what, enough is enough. We're gonna get Shador
and call him our guy. I'm gonna go real quick.
I'm very offensive line heavy for this first round. And
one of my favorite bets that I saw on FANDLE
is that both Banks and Membo will be top ten
picks at plus two twenty. And I really, I really
(26:38):
like this because these two players are pretty much what
you would want in a tackle prospect. With Membo, the
biggest issue people are going to have is that he's
only played right tackle throughout his career in college. But
if the Jets don't go down the Warren route, for example,
they have a gaping hole at right tackle that Membu
(26:59):
could be plug and play on day one. So you've
got the upside in pick seven there. And I just
think Calvin Banks is again it's just massive prospect fatigue.
This guy, multi year starter at Texas in the SEC,
no issues whatsoever.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
He's I think he was like an.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
Eight raz athlete, like just a really good player, and
I don't see him escaping out of the top ten.
So I like this parlay at plus two twenty and
then towards the back end of the first round, We've
got a Chiefs team that has tried to sewn up
offensive line a little bit here in the offseason, but
had a massive, massive hole last year in the Super
(27:39):
Bowl which was fully exposed by an Eagles team who
let Makai Beckton walk and is always looking to recycle
up front. So I think they are both candidates to
take offensive line. And I just can't see Josh Connerley
out of Oregon falling out of the first round with
(28:00):
his ability at tackle. Eight point eighty five rass athlete.
He's the third tackle on my guy Connor Rodgers's big board.
He played running back in high school. This guy is
like the definition of a dancing bear who can go
out there and just look super agile and still has
(28:22):
a ton of growth potential because he hasn't like filled
out into his body. So this is minus two twenty.
You are laying a bit of juice, which I do
not like doing in the draft, but I just don't
see a prospect of his ability, size, stature, and athleticism
falling out of the first round. So I've got him
at minus two twenty. You, however, you're a little bearish
(28:43):
on o line. You think under six and a half
will be taken on Thursday night.
Speaker 1 (28:48):
Yeah, I mean I think the position from everything that
I'm seeing, is not as deep at the top part
of the draft, you know. So I don't think people
are gonna, you know, in the late first round be
reaching a little bit as much as they might, you know,
for some other positions, Like I think edge rusher's pretty
(29:08):
deep for the high end, and you know, I think
that's a value position for a lot of these teams.
You know, you hear pretty much time and time again,
you can never have enough good edg rushers, obviously. I
think a lot of people, you know, recency bias, right,
I think a lot of people saw what the Eagles
did in the Super Bowl with that defensive line, and
it's like, okay, we need that, right, we need that,
(29:31):
which is like, yeah, they have a lot of really
good guys, but they have a lot of them too,
and they just keep throwing people at you from all
different angles, and like, so how do we get that. Okay,
let's try and find those types of guys, you know.
So I think five or six feels decent enough to
take plus one oh five there at the under six
and a half. You know, it's not like an outlandis price.
(29:55):
You're still getting plus money, so I think it's fine.
I also think that, you know, there's gonna be some
spots where I think teams get again, probably a little
bit crazy, you know, over their skis. Like I look
at the Cowboys, I think they'll probably splurge on a
running back, you know, even though I wouldn't again do
(30:15):
that in the first round, you know, I would just
get running backs later. I think, you know, you mentioned
Burden like, like, you know, I think Tech McMillan goes
obviously pretty early. That's what I'm hoping for at least,
and then you know, you'll probably get some people that
talk themselves into two or three other wide receivers. Same
sort of thing with Jackson Dart, you know, like I
(30:37):
think somebody ends up talking themselves into Jackson Dart. And
what I'm getting at here is like five, six, seven
picks are now off the board that can't go to
an offensive line, right, so it's just filling up the
space there and removing the potential and allowing me to
hit that under is kind of where I'm at with
this whole thing.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Yeah, you look at receiver. This is both first round
and the last round second round last year. Starting at
pick twenty eight, five of the next seven picks where
Xavier Worthy, Ricky Piersoll, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman, Lad McConaughey.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
A couple of picks later was Jalen Polk.
Speaker 2 (31:13):
So we know the wide receiver run is going to
happen at the late end of the first round. It's
just like you said, when does it start and how
hard does the avalanche cross crash? Because yes, Ted is
probably the only high end prospects like you said, but
(31:35):
people are absolutely salivating over the next tier of receivers
in this draft, and it spans from like Matthew Golden
all the way to I would even say like like
a Jack Besh or a Jalen Noel. Like there's a
good group of damn near double digit receivers that based
(31:58):
on what they do, they don't all play the same
role in the receiver room, but they're all very talented
in their own right and can find starting roles in
the NFL. That there is going to be a run
at some point on receivers and it's going to be
whether or not it's going to be the end of
the first or closer to the second round. We do agree, however,
on defensive line and the amount of guys and the
(32:21):
amount of talent that is going to be selected in
the first round, because I've got a matchup that was
listed on draft Kings that Walter Nolan will be drafted
before Simmons, the kid, the tackle out of Ohio State,
and again minus two fifty. Don't love laying juice, but
one thing I've come to realize when it comes to
the NFL Draft is that a player like Josh Simmons,
(32:44):
we can get really excited about what he looked like
pre injury, and he was very good at Ohio State.
But I think these teams take medicals and red flags,
especially a knee, very very very seriously. And I don't
know if the draft community, who are always looking for
upside and always looking for the positives, and the greater
(33:06):
betting community are really putting that into a wager such
as this. They're both favored, very favored to go in
the first round. No one's minus eight hundred, Simmons is
minus seven to fifty. I wish there was a market
for Simmons going in the second round because I think
it like if that wide receiver Avalanche hits and people
(33:28):
were just worried about that medical I can certainly see
Simmons slipping to the top end of the second round.
And like you said, after watching the Eagles dominate up
front on the defensive trenches, I don't see a world
where a player like Walter Nolan doesn't get selected in
the first.
Speaker 3 (33:46):
Round of this draft.
Speaker 2 (33:48):
So I've got that, And you've got D line over
eight and a half, A lot of big boys going
in the first round.
Speaker 1 (33:55):
Yeah, well, I mean it's it's D line slash edge,
so for sure. Yeah, I mean you get Michael Williams,
Do you get do you get to this? Is?
Speaker 2 (34:04):
I wonder how they great this. I wonder how they're
gonna Drad Javon Walker. Javon Walker technically an off ball linebacker,
but people seem to think he's gonna play edge and
the lee. Yeah, you've got Michael Williams, Shamar Stewart. There
there are so many freaks that are gonna come flying
off the board.
Speaker 1 (34:19):
Yeah, And I think again, this is a position that
I think it was always a premium position, but I
think it's it's even growing even more so. You know, again,
I think I think the NFL is a bit of
a copycat league. And you know, it's like also that
thought of what have you done for me lately? Meaning
(34:40):
the recency bias again pointing to the Eagles. That defensive
line was ridiculous in the Super Bowl, and that's what
everyone remembers all the time, So like how do we
build that? You know, there's also like some of the
best players in the NFL right now, are you know
those edge rushers, those defensive linemen, the Max Crosbys of
the world, right you know, so like how do we
(35:02):
get those guys? You know that type of guys. Of course,
we know Abdul Carter is going super early, right and
I think at some point, you know, a lot of
teams are just going to try and fill this role.
And you know, I think this also kind of works
as a nice pairing with if I'm going under on
a position, well, I need to feel find something to
(35:23):
kind of fill the over right that that makes sense
in my mind. So this is where I think there's
a good shot at it. Now I'm also paying for
it minus two seventy, you know, but it is what
it is. I think there's some some decent value there.
Speaker 2 (35:37):
Okay, let let me get you guys out of here
on my Fight one Jets Drive. Lauren Park, New Jersey
has been on complete lockdown ever since Aaron Glenn and
Darren Mujie were hired as head coach and GM. Honestly,
(35:58):
the only things that have leaked out of there have
been extremely minor. And there's been a lot of smoke
to start this week about the kid baron cornerback slash
safety potentially being a selection, and I just don't buy it.
(36:19):
This building has not leaked anything, so the fact that
some random player is coming out of nowhere and potentially
being the pick, I personally don't buy it. I think
they're doing everything they can to hide there over the
moon infatuation for Tyler Warren. Tyler Warren was the only
visit Tyler Warren made was to New Jersey to see
(36:43):
the New York Jets. Tanner anstreng being a former tight
ends coach now offensive coordinator, being with the Lions and
watching the impact that San Laporta had on that team,
I just think it fits glove in hand. I'm not
the biggest fan because a positional value. I'd rather see
them take a tackle at seven, but I guess you
(37:06):
could sell me if Warren is a better athlete than
I think that he is an okay pick at seven,
and he I mean, he asked to have a direct
impact day one. If you're going to pick him at seven,
he's essentially going to have like the ninth highest salary
at the position on day one, just because of the
way the rookie salary works and because of how low
tight ends are paid. So I still think Warren plus
(37:30):
three hundred for the pick is not terrible. All of
that being said, Darren Mugie was in the room when
the Denver Broncos took Javonte Williams of the second round pick.
Aaron Glenn was in the room when the Detroit Lions
took Jamira Gibbs despite already having David Montgomery. I don't
think Ashton gent plus three thousand is an insane wager
(37:54):
for the Jets at seven. I think there is a
world where they try to make Genty and Breee a thing,
maybe even trade Breess this is the last year of
his contract. But Mujie and Glenn, both having scouting backgrounds,
I typically see this from a lot of scouts. When
(38:16):
they make their big boards, they don't consider positional value.
They just say, these are the dudes that are the
best at football, right, Like, no matter what, these guys
are going to be good at what they're supposed to do.
And I can see Glenn and Mugie if it's on
them at seven and Ashton Genty is on the board
(38:36):
looking at one another and saying, this dude is the
best football player available. We're just gonna take him. So
it's a punt. I think it's a punt. I think
they do love Warren. But like if you told me
that these idiots took a running back with the seventh
overall pick because they think he's the best football player
(38:57):
in the draft, I wouldn't think you're great, but I
would be pissed, donn like you, I would be apoplectic
if was the selection.
Speaker 1 (39:08):
Yeah, I mean, okay, I mean, but this is also
a spot where I could see the Jets trading out.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
To please please, I'm begging somebody, please please trade because
we can get Warren in the low teens.
Speaker 3 (39:22):
Probably.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Yeah, I mean I think generally this this draft to
me feels like a trade back draft in general, I
just I'm not I if it was me and I
like had my pick of player, I would just pick
Abduel Carter. I think he's the like the number one
Blue Chipper in this draft, you know. I think Travis
(39:46):
Hunter is right there as well. And then other than that,
I mean I don't necessarily know. So I would just
always in this specific draft be looking for spots to
trade back, acquire more capital, and go that way. Like
you know, I think I think you see it. You
see it every year, you know, and but I think
that this year it's it's probably emphasized the most by
(40:08):
cam Ward is that people just talk themselves into these
players and then they move up and up and up
and up. I mean, the biggest one that I can
remember was Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Remember they were
like round two selections and all of a sudden it
was like, Nope, they're going to go one and two.
Like it was like where where did that come from?
Because you just you need the quarterback, you need that,
(40:30):
and then you just talk yourself into it, right, So
so yeah, I would just be kind of approaching this
whole thing like it would just be a trade back opportunity.
Speaker 2 (40:39):
Yeah, fingers crossed. I'm hoping somebody falls in love with Ashton. Gents,
Chicago Bears, come on down, give us was it pick ten,
pick ten and a fourth rounder to move up three spots,
please begging it?
Speaker 3 (40:54):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
I have a question for you, shoot, would you would
you rather be an overvalued cam Ward who is probably
like he's yes, he's the best quarterback in the draft,
but he might not be worthy of the number one pick?
Is kind of what I'm getting at? Or would you
like to be on the other side where you're an
(41:15):
undervalued sitar standers and you slide like like with cam Ward,
there's gonna be the expectation of a number one pick,
yet he might not.
Speaker 3 (41:23):
He might not.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
That might be incorrect to give that him that expectation. Yes,
he technically goes number one on the board, but is
he really like is should he be like a Peyton
Manning type whatever?
Speaker 3 (41:34):
Like?
Speaker 1 (41:34):
Probably not no, But we're gonna hold him to that
because we're gonna say he's the number one pick. Whereas
if you're Shador and he falls to like who knows
twenty one where the Steelers are or something like it,
then it's gonna be like, Oh, he's he's the underdog
now like, so, which which one would you rather be?
Speaker 2 (41:50):
Well, it's also nature versus nurture, right, we look back
at the Lamar Jackson class. He falls to a team
with unbelievable institutional stability, great coaching, and a great environment.
So there might be paths where Lamar Jackson doesn't turn
into the player that we think he is today. But
he landed in the perfect environment and took advantage of it.
(42:12):
So that's the other added ass that you get when
you fall, right, because you don't go to a team
who sucks.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
The Titans suck.
Speaker 2 (42:18):
They are a bad football team, So you have to
not only overcome the expectation, but you have to overcome
the fact that you were on a team that was
the worst in the NFL last year.
Speaker 3 (42:28):
So I think falling.
Speaker 2 (42:31):
Probably gives you a better chance if the talent gap
isn't as demonstrative. I think what gets interesting is if
you're like the first pick of the second round, because
then you don't get the fifth year option, right, so
you can get to free agency faster. So I think
I would rather be pick thirty three and try to
(42:53):
get to free agency first. And if I'm good, then
I can get a larger contract faster than cam Ward.
But I think in general, sliding's better. You're gonna land
on a better team, maybe even a team that trades
up for you, right where they come in from the
second round to try to get that fifth year option,
and maybe they made a good pick early on, like
the Browns for example, Like if the Browns go Travis
(43:15):
Hunter and trade back in for Chadur Sanders, they already
have a very good defense, they already have a very
good head coach. You can sit behind I guess you
can sit behind Kenny Pickett for a little bit. I guess.
I guess they can roll out thicket, right is it?
Kenny Pickett Week one in Cleveland? But you have Travis Hunter,
and you have some good talent Cedric Tillman, Jerry Judy,
(43:37):
like there's some there's some pieces there in good coaching.
I think that's much better than like getting picked by
the Saints, who we are in absolute cap hell and
have a Crystal lave who's one hit away from no
longer being in the league. Like, yeah, I think sliding
is probably preferable if you're not an elite, elite talent
just because of landing spot.
Speaker 3 (43:59):
What about you? Where do you lent?
Speaker 1 (44:00):
I honestly don't know. I've been thinking about it, like,
and I wanted to ask because I'm kind of thinking
about it. I mean, I kind of would rather slide,
you know again, be that underdog type of story who
can eventually come out and say, you know, I should
have been a top ten pick. You guys are all idiots, like,
look at me now type of thing versus you know,
(44:21):
if you're cam Ward and you don't live up to
that number one draft pick expectation, you know, it's just
always going to live with you, even if you have
like a pretty good career, like you know, what if
he turns out to be I don't know, just a nice,
serviceable like tenth best QB in the league, people are
(44:45):
still going to say, well, he's not He's not Patrick Mahomes,
he's not Josh Allen, he's not, like, because that's what
you expect from the number one pick. So it's it's
it's a tricky spot, right, So I just wouldn't want
that on me, you know. And obviously there's nothing he
can do about it, Like he doesn't control how these
teams view things. How they they go after that unicorn
(45:06):
that is the the you know, the franchise quarterback, the
Hall of Famer. So yeah, he's just in a bad spot.
Now that's not to say the kid isn't incredible and
turns out to be incredible. I'm just saying, where would
you you want to be? Type of thing. So it's
it's certainly not fun. I'll say that much.
Speaker 2 (45:23):
I want to put this on wax. Kevin Clark said
something similar and I've I've been saying something to that effect. Again,
I just want this to be on the record. I
think cam Ward is the most Patrick Mahomes prospect there
has been since Patrick Mahomes in that because my wife,
(45:44):
Jenna was working at the U for the past two
years now now we're back in California, but she was
at the U.
Speaker 3 (45:50):
I watched the U.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
I picked up Miami as a team to root for
a little bit, and when Cam made mistakes, it was
because Cam knew the only way Miami was gonna win
a football game is if he threw for three point
fifty and four touchdowns, that their defense was so bad
and that their skill position players were so mid that
(46:12):
there was only one path to victory, and that was
cam Ward bawling out. So yeah, when you see the
crossfield pick six against Cal, a game in which, by
the way, Miami came back from like a twenty one
point deficit and one on the road and one of
the longest trips in all of college football from Miami
to Berkeley. How that's a conference game, Lord knows. But
(46:36):
his mistakes were a guy thinking it through and saying, well,
I have to take a calculated risk. Somebody's down there,
let me make a throw. So I think this dude
has a very live arm. I think he's athletic, accurate,
and I think the dude is pretty freaking smart too,
Like he had autonomy at the line. He was changing
(46:58):
plays in college, which is not something you see. But
a multiple year player who started at something incarnate Ward
and had to work his way up to getting to
Miami through the transfer portal. I'm rooting for camp Ward.
I think he has a shot to be a good
quarterback in this league. So we'll leave it at that.
Best of luck, Best of luck in your betting ventures.
(47:21):
Please console me if the Jets do actually take ashon.
Speaker 3 (47:24):
Jet with this, I'm gonna need it. Prettyp Im rich
he
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!