2025 Super Wild Card Weekend: Moneyline Dogs and NFC Longshots

The Collective are eying a couple of dogs on the money (bet) line, and an NFC longshot. 

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:10):
The back.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Ier Camvil, the only podcast that puts its money where
its mouth is. I'm your host, rich Ron, and I'm
joined by the entire collective, The Disciple, Brett Colson, Donnie
DP Peters, and the Resident moves himself mo Nowara. If
you were watching this on YouTube, please like the video
and subscribe to the channel. Listeners, rate and review on

(00:37):
your podcast of choice. I've used this player before, but
I gotta get some love to my SoCal folks. Five
stars only like Mark Sanchez, a lot of tough.

Speaker 3 (00:49):
Times out here.

Speaker 4 (00:50):
Shouts O the people up in the Palisades and in Altadena,
I know goodin Gamble fan and listener Kevin Taylor nearly
had to be uh moved last night because of the fire,
so hopefully he is staying safe a little bit north
of me. Crazy Times. The playoff game this weekend. There's
some questions as to whether or not it will actually

(01:10):
take place at SOFI Stadium. I don't think the fire
can physically get all the way down to Inglewood, but
when you have every single EMS resource in the region
responding to these fires, making sure that people are getting
evacuated and getting to the right place, who knows if
they'll be able to safely have a pro football game
with all that is required to do so. So I

(01:33):
know a statement came out from the league today that
the secondary spot would be out in Glendale at the
Cardinals Stadium, so we'll keep our eyes on that. I'm
sure most of your books will avoid any bets that
were made on this contest, but of course make sure
you check with your book for that information.

Speaker 3 (01:53):
I think we landed a body blow last week.

Speaker 4 (01:55):
I'm totally over the regular season, very happy that it's
the playoffs, and very excited to get into some of
these games.

Speaker 3 (02:05):
We're not going to do the traditional format.

Speaker 4 (02:07):
I'm not going to make these guys make picks if
they don't have anything behind them, if they don't have
any conviction, it kind of is a pointless exercise. So
some of these fellows already have bets in their accounts,
and there's some other things that maybe we just want
to talk out. And that's going to be a much
more fruitful exercise than putting an X next to a team,

(02:28):
because you have to put an X next to a team.
And we'll start with a game where people have some
opinions on it's the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to Houston
to take on the Texans.

Speaker 3 (02:42):
The Chargers are road favorites.

Speaker 4 (02:44):
I'm seeing a very expensive field goal or an inexpensive
two and a half at a very influential offshore book
total of forty two and a half. The majority of
the tickets are on the road favorite in this spot.
Two dnps for both teams all week, receiver Josh Palmer

(03:05):
for the Chargers and guard Shaq Mason for the Texans.
And we, like we have all season, Like most said
all the way back in the summer, we are taking
the team getting points against a harborught team. We were
very confident this year that the Harbor team is going
to be good as a dog might be a fade

(03:27):
while they were favorites, and we are lining up to
do so. And we'll start with Brett, who has the
money bat line plus one thirty six in his account.

Speaker 5 (03:37):
Yeah. I do hope Bet spreads. I think the price
here on LA is too high on the road. I
don't understand it. Three point favorites. What has LA done
to deserve this kind of respect. They are two to
five this year against teams that made the playoffs. Both
of those wins came against Denver. Cool, Like, what have
they shown us to earn this rating to be three

(04:00):
three point favorites against the team that just rested all
of its starters ahead of a home playoff game. I
don't get it. And like, I know, I've been shitting
on CJ. Stroud all season. He's been awful, and the
coaching mismatch here is significant, Like that can't be ignored.
But we know what the ceiling is with Stroud. We
know it's in there somewhere. And even though he's down

(04:21):
two receivers, he's got Deontay Johnson out there running routes now,
And like, that's that's what CJ needs. Get out there, separate,
deliver the ball quickly. How many guys in the league
are as good as Deontay Johnson at getting open? Not many,
So I don't I don't think the Texans have any
shot at getting out of the NFC into the super Bowl,

(04:41):
But this one feels like a really good spot for
Houston to win against Harbaugh. Yes, plus thirty plus one
thirty six on the money line, he is in my account,
I really like the Texans here at home.

Speaker 4 (04:52):
Moe, you sent me the juice three, but you also
sent me the money line as well, so pile on
with Houston.

Speaker 1 (04:58):
Yeah, I've got some of both for the listeners. With
the Legals, we do have one to fifteens at Caesars
and MGM, so I don't think that's too bad. I'm
fine with that. And yeah, there's some plus one thirty
five ish type numbers out there. I like Brett, I

(05:19):
don't have much to add. I mean, Brett pretty much
hit on all all the points. For me, I can't
get the charge. I think maybe the Chargers I do
deserve to be a road favorite. I can't get close
to three here, man, I mean it's just too high
for me. Yes, like Brett said, it probably is better coach,
better quarterback, unfortunately, but at the end of the day,

(05:42):
it's slightly better coach, better quarterback. And they're getting and
they're in. They're giving three on the road against a
very good defense. I mean, this Chargers team. I look
at the end of the day and I see two
hundred and eighty five yards from Herbert. But then I
also see they had six points at half time or
something against the Raiders. It's this offense. I don't trust

(06:03):
them against a good defense. Say whatever you want about
Bobby Slowick and what Houston has done. This is still
a very very good defense. So I think they can
keep them in this And yeah, I mean, just like Brett,
I think Deontay Johnson might actually matter here. When you're
down to the John Mechi's and Xavier Hutchinson's of the world,

(06:25):
Deontay Johnson has to move the needle right as long
as he's in game shape. This has to be a
pretty good addition.

Speaker 5 (06:31):
He looked pretty good last week. He only ran twenty
two or play twenty two steps, but I thought he
looked great.

Speaker 4 (06:37):
Donnie's taken the safe route. You have a little bit
of a round robin teaser here that you sent and
we'll start with the Texans side. Donnie, have you placed
this bet or have these gentlemen convinced you that you
should just fire the money line here?

Speaker 6 (06:50):
This was the money line that I looked at a lot.
I would say that I just got a little gun shy,
honestly with the performance of stroud or over the course
of the season, like he's just not been the Stroud
of last year, and he hasn't had that jump that
you know, I guess i'd be comfortable with but I
think these guys made good points and are pushing me

(07:12):
over to that side, So yeah, I'll probably dip into
the money line a little bit. Ultimately, I just don't
think that, like this Chargers team is the type of
team that can really run away from another team, Like
I don't think we've really seen a lot of that,
you know, I don't think they play that sort of
style here. They're going to go on the road, you know.
And then where I say that I am gun shy
as it pertains to Stroud, I also know that I've

(07:34):
seen it before with Stroud, which can give me some confidence,
Like I've seen him be good. I've seen him make
big plays, move the ball, all that sort of stuff.
So you know, yeah, I like this Texans side a lot.
I also think that I saw maybe it was heard,
but I feel like everyone's going to be on the
Chargers here, probably partly because the Texans have closed out
the season kind of stinkingly, like they've sucked in a

(07:55):
lot of spots. So I think people are just going
to really pile in on the Chargers, and you know
that obviously presents a good opportunity for the other side.

Speaker 4 (08:02):
I think, yeah, this isn't bet on the team that
looked the worst last week. It's more so it's kind
of like bet on the team that looked the worst
on Christmas Day. It's like everybody cannot get past that
two point performance against the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas Day.
Everyone got around their TVs to watch that incredible Beyonce
halftime show, and they just haven't forgotten how poor Houston

(08:24):
looked in that game, and they're just I'm trying to
make a contrarian case here for the Chargers, and I
think what I would say is, if you like the
Chargers in this spot, I would say just bet under
forty two and a half because I don't see very
many barn burners with which the Chargers win this game.

(08:45):
And by betting the under, you still have outs to
winning your bet even if the Texans are the better
team and win and cover in this game. So maybe
that's on offer if you think we're all crazy and
you like LA. One thing I'm interested in is betting
mix and over receptions. So I'm seeing over three and
a half at plus one twenty. The largest line I

(09:06):
wanted to bet a ladder, but the largest one I'm
seeing is over four and a half at plus two
to thirty five. You look at the last couple of
matchups that the Chargers played. Madison last week caught four
balls on five targets two weeks prior to that, the
week prior with the Patriots, and the Patriots literally for
some reason, don't have a pass catching back on their
entire roster. Two weeks before that, though, Javonte caught seven

(09:28):
balls on eleven targets, and then the Tampa Bay running
Backs the week prior caught four balls on four targets,
So I think the availability is going to be there.
We know mixing is good in the passing game, and
in the event that Deontay Johnson doesn't come online or
is enable to play more snaps than he did last week,
Mixon will be a pass catching option out of the
backfield for the Texans in this game. We moved to

(09:52):
Saturday night, where a divisional tilt will take place for
the third time this season between the Pittsburgh Steelers and
the balls More Ravens. The Ravens are minus nine and
a half the book I am looking at. I'm also
seeing some eight and a half's out there total of
forty three and a half a fifty fifty ticket split
right now, the last time these two teams met, we

(10:15):
saw the ass kicking that we thought might be coming
the first time, where the Ravens absolutely laid the SmackDown
on the Steelers first game some Tomlin voodoo, the Steelers
found a way to do it again. So this is
the rubber match between these two teams, and nobody has
very strong conviction on this contest. So I'm going to

(10:35):
start with a prop that Donnie has listed, and it's
a touchdown on the Ravens side of the ball cock.

Speaker 3 (10:43):
Yeah, Mark Andrews.

Speaker 6 (10:44):
Anytime TD saw plus one fifteen out there, I mean, one,
say Flower's gonna be gone right, So that's one thing.

Speaker 3 (10:53):
Two, I love tight ends.

Speaker 6 (10:54):
Three Tomlin never seems to cover tight ends, especially really
good ones, for whatever stupid reason he just does. So
I can't have any real confidence in this Steelers team.
Like if you look, if you pull back and you
look at the whole of their season, you might be
able to talk yourself into them being okay, But they
have sucked for a month, like sucked. I mean, so

(11:17):
what am I supposed to expect from this team? I
think you're just gonna kind of see a lot of stubbornness.

Speaker 3 (11:22):
You know.

Speaker 6 (11:22):
That's kind of leading me to the Mark Andrews bed here,
because again, Tomlin is the guy who does what he does,
never adjusts. So you know, I think Mark Andrews is
going to be able to get his in this spot.
And yeah, I mean I like the Ravens a lot.
Now will they blow him out or is this going
to be another you know, close AFC North battle could
be the latter, of course, yes, But I see really
no way, shape or form the Steelers win this game.

Speaker 3 (11:44):
I'm sorry, I just don't name a big old rivalry.

Speaker 4 (11:47):
Now, name a big old rivalry, geez, name a bigger
rivalry than Rich and talking. Name a bigger rivalry than
Mike Tomlin and nickelback or linebacker coverage. In the playoffs,
we saw an entire decade of Wes Welker, Julian Edelman,
all these inside guys absolutely trouncing Mike Tomlin. I should
have mentioned off the top, I was trying to format

(12:10):
this and add injuries. The big injury here obviously is
a Flowers, who is trending towards not playing. I see
as a questionable tag. But everything I'm seeing is basically
saying that he is out for this contest. Cam Hayward
has had mud butt the last two days. I'm sure
he'll get some fluids in his system and suit up
and be okay for Pittsburgh come Saturday.

Speaker 3 (12:33):
MO.

Speaker 4 (12:33):
You've got some leans here, but you don't necessarily have
a wager, and you are against Donnie in a bit,
in a little way, because you're interested in perhaps taking
the points here.

Speaker 1 (12:46):
Yeah, I just think that if I had to, I
would take Pittsburgh just because of market sentiment, voodoo and
the fact that they do tend to be closer than
they be against the Ravens. In most cases, I'm more
interested in betting the over, though. I was very close

(13:07):
to pulling the trigger on the over here. I was
surprised how low it was. I mean, isn't this Baltimore
team just a stone cold over team. I mean every
week they score thirty points. It's like you just need
fourteen from the Steelers and you're there. I know the
first game was absurdly low scoring between these teams, but

(13:28):
the Ravens had like seven yards per play in that
game and just kept fumbling the bag when they got
into scoring territory. Part of it was justin Tucker being horrific.
I tend to believe that that's not going to be
a factor, just because I doubt they're going to try
many long field goals in cold weather in the playoffs.

(13:50):
I would expect them to be pretty aggressive going for it.
And yeah, George Pickens, I mean, we've got to see
a better performance than that out of this passing offense
this week, right, So I tend to think that we
are getting a pretty low number when I think it
should be a bit higher here. But yeah, I'd be
willing to listen to whatever anybody else has to say

(14:13):
on this one. I'm thinking that the line is relatively fair,
but I felt like maybe the total was too low.

Speaker 6 (14:19):
Well, can I add that this is the second part
of my leg my seven point easer, So I'm not
I wouldn't lay the full whatever nine and a half,
but get it down to two and a half. I mean,
I really like it.

Speaker 4 (14:32):
Yeah, with regards to the toll, there's got to be
some deflation here because people are seeing AFC North Playoffs
thirty one degrees, right, so they're just I mean, it's
just I bet you if you pull up any app
and they show you the bar a percentage of bets
like people apply smashing the under because of what they've
seen over the last couple of years. And you bring
up George Pickens. Isn't this just the bounce we talk

(14:57):
about who looked the worst lie? Who looked worse than
George Pickens? The guy who only needed twenty six yards
to get a season total last week jackass and got
a complete donut dropping balls not getting open. So yeah,
this might be The moon balls are going to be there.
I mean you have to this is the Russell Wilson offense.
You have to toss up some moon balls, and the

(15:19):
guy in the receiving end, or at least from an
attempt standpoint, is going to be George Pickens.

Speaker 3 (15:24):
So yeah, I think if you're.

Speaker 4 (15:26):
In a one and done pool, if you want to
bet some overs, I think George Pickens is going to
be the click this week.

Speaker 6 (15:34):
The popular thing that I've heard all week is justin Fields. No,
that's like all I've heard from a lot of people.
I'm not in on it, I'm just bringing it up. Yeah,
I think topic of conversation people are like justin Field
anytime TD Maybe he gets in there somehow. Mike Tomlin
didn't want to do it last week, keeping him in
the bag. He's going to bring him out this week possibly,
blah blah blah blah blah.

Speaker 5 (15:56):
The only stuff they have in this game is russ moveballs.
That's it.

Speaker 3 (15:59):
Yeah, and I think for sure moon balls. Yes.

Speaker 4 (16:01):
Tomlin has been so desperate these last couple of weeks.
I mean he literally called them a JVT. He said
that they were entering into last week in their three
game skit, he said, we're playing like a JVTAM. So
if that's not an air of desperation, I don't know
what is. And he didn't pull the Justin Fields ripcord then,
so if he's not gonna pull.

Speaker 1 (16:20):
It, I think it's the opposite. Like, I think that's
a weapon they only bring out when they're ahead and
they're like trying to seal the game and whatnot. Fourth
and two like that's when I've seen him out there.
I don't think he's gonna play everyone they're behind.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
Yeah, it's almost like a heat check.

Speaker 4 (16:35):
So yeah, if there's two way markets, come on circa,
where's the two way market on Justin Fields?

Speaker 3 (16:43):
And he's a touchdown all right, Let's move.

Speaker 4 (16:45):
To Brett's backyard, Bills Majana. Brett doesn't have an official
play on this game, but you are the Buffalo native.
I don't think there's a better first round matchup. You
could have asked then Bo Nicks and them boys coming
in to art Orchard Park. Line is eight and a half.

(17:06):
Total is forty seven. What are your thoughts on this contest, Brett?

Speaker 5 (17:10):
If I've got to look for this game, it's going
to be Bill's alternate spread like minus twenty and a half,
which you can get on DraftKings at plus three fifty five.
If this game gets away from Bonix, it could get
very ugly in his first road playoff game. Extremely tough environment,
high pressure. Buffalo could just run away with this game

(17:31):
by Nick's turning it over while he's trying to do
too much getting Denver back into the game. I could
see this one getting very ugly. But I've seen this
many times before in these Super Wildcard games with the Bills.
Like I gets bad teams, then Denver's not a bad team,
but I guess like a bad Miami team. Was it
last year or two years ago against Scaalar Times the.

Speaker 1 (17:51):
Skylart lip there plus seventeen and a half.

Speaker 5 (17:54):
So I want nothing to do with this. I will
sit back and try to enjoy it on Sunday afternoon
and not have any any any piece of it monetarily.

Speaker 4 (18:04):
So I think we might have a classic Chiefs opportunity
in this game. In that scenario, I think we should
be keeping our eyes peeled for Bill's live if the
Broncos finds some way to get out and score early,
because Josh is just such a tour de force that

(18:28):
I believe wholeheartedly that he will find a way to
get first downs, get the ball down the field, and
ultimately get the ball in the end zone. So I
think we should have our eyes peeled if there's some
random variants at the beginning, or I mean Bonix has
uncorked some nice ones if well, I think I said
this perhaps in our DM group with ODB, but the

(18:51):
Broncos cap has been does Marvin Mims have a ninety
yard play? If Marvin Mims has a ninety yard play,
then the Broncos is gonna win the football game. If
he doesn't, then they're gonna struggle to have any kind
of explosive aspect to their passing attack.

Speaker 3 (19:05):
So that's something to keep your eyes on.

Speaker 5 (19:07):
Marvin Mims. Guy, man, I think I've dropped Marvin Mims
in three dynasty leagues and now he's just WR one.
He breaks off a fifty yard plus reception for a
touchdown every week. That's that's cool. Thanks.

Speaker 4 (19:21):
My favorite look here is the under. My favorite look
here is specifically the second half under if the Bills
are leading, because the Bills are twenty first in situation
neutral pace, I think they're twenty eighth in overall pace.
If they get ahead, Brady is very happy to cram

(19:43):
the ball, run the clock out, and get into the
locker room. So I really like, I really like second
half under if the Bills are leading at halftime, and
I have an interest in the under at forty seven, Mo,
you agree you sent me under forty six and a
half at the book that you were looking at.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
Yeah, it's on the move. I feel like a bit.
It was forty seven and a half, like pretty much
across the board early in the week. Starting to see
some forty six and a halfs. I think that's right.
I don't understand this number. It's just way too high,
way way higher than I thought I was gonna be
I thought it was gonna be like forty four and
a half or something. I mean, like you said, it's

(20:21):
a Bills as a big favorite, and I expect them
to try to run the ball a lot. I don't
think Denver is going to have a lot of success.
If the Bills are trailing, then yeah, I'm in huge
trouble here because Josh Allen can put up points in
a hurry. But I don't think that's what's going to
be happening here. I think the Bills are going to
be up, you know, twenty to seven in the third quarter,
and they're just going to start taking the air out

(20:43):
of the ball, and you know, we might end up with,
you know, some kind of twenty seven to ten type
of situation where each team only gets you know, two
or three possessions down the stretch, and the Bills they
have the offensive line to do it, and Denver has
the secondary to limit the bigger plays and keep things

(21:07):
a bit more in front of them. And yeah, I
mean it's a rookie quarterback on the road. Like Brett said,
I don't think Sean Payton is just going to hand
bo Nicks the ball and say win us this game.
I think he's going to try to do it with
the scheme, and frankly, I don't think it's gonna work.
I like Brett, I expect that there is a strong

(21:29):
chance that Buffalo runs away with this one. And in
all of those games scripts I do like the under,
so I already fired the under from this one.

Speaker 5 (21:38):
I can't think of a game where Patrick's artan matters
less because like the Bills don't have a WR one
you need to lock down. They've got like seven WR threes.
It's like it's whoever's open is going to get the ball.
So again, I just don't think this is a good
matchup for Denver on either side of the ball.

Speaker 4 (21:56):
It's kind of a fishy bet. But there are the
lowest point total markets and I don't think Broncos plus
four fifty is the worst shout. And on the inverse ODB,
if you're out there, if you think the Broncos can
win this game, Bill's lowest scoring team of the weekend
at twenty five to one, might be the angle with

(22:19):
which you attack this because if they win, If the
Broncos win, is probably going to be an ugly low
scoring affair that they find a way to eke it out.
So this is a way to push all your chips
in the middle and try to absolutely maximize that outcome.
So maybe that is the hedge against all of our

(22:41):
Buffalo love on this podcast. Okay, probably the most interesting
game for two members of the collective is this game
on Sunday at four point thirty and it's the Packers
traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles CIA. This
is four and a half a total of forty five
and a half sixty two percent of the tickets are

(23:03):
on Philadelphia. Christian Watson is going to be out for
this contest, but other than that, no real major injuries
to report. Unless Jalen Hurts isn't cleared from concussion protocol.
That is a big cloud that hangs over this game.
Those of you watching on YouTube will see Donnie shaking

(23:25):
his head because I agree that there's absolutely zero points
zero percent chance that Roger Goodell allows this game to
kick off without number one under center for the EA
g L E S Eagles. That said, once again, the
Moose and the Disciple are both on the road team.

(23:47):
Here Moe from previous equity, he has Green Bay to
win the NFC and Brett you've joined him in that
venture at plus nine point fifty, and you also have
green Bay to win this game at plus one nine four.

Speaker 5 (24:01):
It was plus nine to fifty when I sent that
to you three hours ago. They're now plus twelve hundred
on DraftKings, So I'm getting another on that. I don't
know why that happens, but that's nice. Yeah, as far
as this game against the Eagles, I've talked about Green
Bay a lot on this podcast. I like this team.

Speaker 1 (24:23):
A lot.

Speaker 5 (24:24):
I've been a stand for I mean, really the entire season.
I think this team is wildly underrated coming into the
playoffs as a seventh seed and should not be taken
lightly by anybody. This is a team that played the
fifth most difficult schedule in the league's most competitive division.
They had a great season, third in total DV away

(24:45):
during the regular season. They are very good on both
sides of the ball. Better coach here, Better quarterback, I mean,
at the very least, neutral quarterback, not even a question.

Speaker 3 (24:56):
A better quarterback.

Speaker 5 (24:58):
As bad as Love has looked as a late with Hurts,
it's like this is already not a jail on Hurts podcast,
we don't think he's very good, but we don't know
what he's gonna look like coming off the concussion. And
if the concussion is in the back of his mind
while he's on the field, how willing is he gonna
be as a runner?

Speaker 1 (25:16):
Like?

Speaker 5 (25:16):
His mobility is what makes him dangerous, And if you
take that away, you're left with a quarterback who doesn't
trust his pocket, doesn't have patience in the pocket, and
doesn't have arm strength to make big throws in that pocket.
And even if Hurts does play aggressively, what's his risk
of re injury? Are the Eagles gonna touch push with
this guy knowing that he's gonna be leaning into three

(25:37):
hundred pounders on the other side of the ball like
if not, that changes the play calling on second and
third downs for the Eagles too. So I have major
concerns with Hurts here against the defense that ranked fourth
in EPA per play, This Packers defense can fly. The
obvious concern here is that Saquan just does this by himself,
much like he did when these teams played in Week
one in Brazil. But there are different circumstances coming to

(26:00):
this one, and I'm sticking with my priors on the
Packers that they can win here more than the market
is saying they can, which is around thirty three percent
of the time. I think it's probably close to forty
percent of the time, given the questions around Hurts and
this Eagles offense. So give me the Packers money line
at plus one eighty five. Whatd I send you? One
ninety four on fandle. Yeah, one ninety four on fandle.

Speaker 4 (26:21):
One of the reasons Saquon got loose in that game
was because the sal Palo Turf was just not ready
to host an NFL football game, and the lack of
footing is very true. Is always going to favor the
running back in that scenario.

Speaker 3 (26:36):
You talk about schedule as well.

Speaker 4 (26:38):
The Eagles, according to DVA, played the fourth easiest schedule
in football this year. So you've got a team that
has battle tested against a team that played a bunch
of cupcakes and Tamata cans. Mo dump On. I don't
think you've gone back to the well. I think you're
just holding your Green Bay NFC ticket. But correct me
if I'm wrong.

Speaker 1 (26:56):
Yeah, Unfortunately, it's holding the bag since there's better prices
now now because of the path they wound up with
like at that point there was still a chance they
would have had a better seed, easier opponents not being said.
I mean where Brett says maybe people aren't respecting the Packers,
I think they're getting a lot of respect When there
are only four and a half point dogs against what

(27:17):
is considered to be a very strong Eagles team. I
think you're seeing that right there. And yeah, I have
a big concern about Jalen Hurts, like Brett said, obviously
expecting him to play, but what is he going to
look like? We have seen some quarterbacks look terrible coming
off concussions at times, Rock Purty, etc. This has been
a talking point the last couple of years. There have

(27:37):
been some really really poor performances. That is a concern
for me. How close to one hundred percent is he
going to be? My big thing here is it's just
going to have to be the Green Bay coaching staff man.
We have got to get Jordan Love on the right
track here and get him some easy stuff short, get
him some confidence in the shorter stuff so that he

(27:58):
is willing to take this throws against Vic Fangio's scheme.
That is a must. When you are facing this defense,
you cannot be looking for home runs all the time,
and that has been a problem with Jordan Love in
the past. He's too willing to go for the big
shot when it's not there, and especially with Christian Watson out,
I think it's going to be up to the Green

(28:19):
Bay staff to put together a coherent plan, but I
think they can do it. I mean, this is an
offensive staff that I think we all have a lot
of confidence and they've done a very good job. And
I think about the sour taste in a lot of
people's mouths, including the market, with their failures in a
lot of the big games this year. So I think
this team is ready to win a big game and

(28:41):
we will see a good performance out of them after
they kind of didn't look that great down the stretch.
So I'm not giving up yet on my play, so
I feel still pretty decent about it.

Speaker 4 (28:54):
Performance after concussion at the quarterback position is something that
has been looked at. I just pulled something up to
quote from at injury Experts with a z they must
be super cool. On Twitter. They did a study looking
at passer rating change after concussion, and in the study
that they looked at, they used sixteen NFL quarterbacks who

(29:16):
suffered at concussion since two thy and twenty two, and
of them, based on their their determinations, thirty three percent
had a large performance dip, twenty had twenty percent had
a mild performance dip, thirteen had a mild boost, six
had a moderate boost, and six percent had no change.

(29:39):
So twenty percent actually based on variants, did better. But third,
fifty three percent of the quarterbacks they looked at in
terms of passer rating first game back from a concussion
had at least a mild performance dip in production. And
this could actually be a scenario where it's maybe a
game too early for her. So we joked about it
off the top, but I mean, it's the play. They're

(30:00):
going to roll the guy out there if he can
pass any sort of cognitive test.

Speaker 3 (30:05):
The big thing that.

Speaker 4 (30:06):
Worries me if I were to play Devil's advocate in
this spot, I do think it is Packers or nothing is.
While I think on a down to down basis, Jordan
Love is better. I am kind of terrified about Jordan
Love on the road in a playoff game against the
vic Fangio right Fangs is a master of zone defense,

(30:27):
tons of quarters, a lot of cover six, and he
does that to protect his guys and don't force him
to play man. But against the Packers with no Christian
Watson and no real alpha talent on the outside, I
think Fango is going to be able to mix in
some man as well and throw a lot at Jordan
Love in this spot, which could make it difficult for

(30:49):
him to perform on the road in Philadelphia. And we
have seen this Eagles team get a lot better as
the season has progressed. You also have Jalen Carter upfront,
which is an Apple nightmare assignment for any interior offensive line.
Packers have been great, though, third into Justine sack rate
this season, so I think it's a tough test for

(31:10):
Jordan Love. I do think it's Packers or nothing, But
I think I'm going to just be a spectator for
this game and root for you guys.

Speaker 5 (31:18):
I want to ask me a question real quick, a
process question, because he said he's holding the bag at
plus six hundred of the Packers at what price would
you consider getting more money down on Green Bay to
kind of balance that number a little better?

Speaker 1 (31:32):
I mean twelve, I'm listening for sure. I did not
know it was all the way up to twelve.

Speaker 5 (31:37):
That either that shocked me. It just happened right now.

Speaker 1 (31:41):
Yeah, I mean I wasn't going to add more at
like nine to fifty or whatever, but at twelve I
might do it. I think I'll be. I had to
get across the bridge at some point here to get
my Texans plus that in because that one I need
to get over to the Caesars basically, So I'm gonna

(32:03):
be going over there to get that in. So maybe
I'll throw a little bit of DK money on there
as well.

Speaker 4 (32:08):
I think people were surprised to see this Sunday night
football matchup. It is a rematch of Week one, a
game that half of us had in Survivor correctly, where
we all took the Tampa Bay where we both of
us took the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won outright against
the rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels making his first start. But
it has been a very storied season for the rookie

(32:30):
who is going to collect Rookie of the Year in
short order. The Bucks are three point favorites in this game.
I'm seeing a total of fifteen and a half and
the public is lining up to take the afore mentioned
Daniels and the formerly racial slurs former leagu football team
now commis Donny. Let's get you involved because you have

(32:51):
one of your favorite players in the NFL scoring two
touchdowns and I'm not going to spoil it, but I
hope praying that there's a certain aspect to this cap
that you are going to mention.

Speaker 6 (33:04):
I mean, I'm just trying to have fun with it.
I don't really have any aspects to the cap. Come on,
Mike Evans, two touchdowns.

Speaker 3 (33:09):
Let's go. But who is he gonna be lined up with?

Speaker 6 (33:11):
Do you want me to say?

Speaker 3 (33:12):
Who is he gonna be lined up against? That's got
to be part of the cap. I don't know.

Speaker 1 (33:16):
He's more likely to be thrown out of the game
than score two touchdowns.

Speaker 7 (33:20):
Probably Marshawn Lattimore week. And we know, we know, we
know Mike Evans likes this show out when Marshawn Latimore
is across from him. Two touchdowns plus seven fifty love
the punt. That's a fun one to have on Sunday
night football.

Speaker 6 (33:38):
I mean, if you're gonna it's like, if you're gonna.
I looked at this and I said, you know, if
I'm gonna just if I want to have any inclination
to take any time touchdown with Mike Evans, just bet two, Like,
what's even the what's the fun in one? I mean,
you know it's a plus one oh five or something. No,
just fire in the two. Mike Evans has scored plenty
of two touchdown games in his career.

Speaker 3 (33:56):
Let's go.

Speaker 5 (33:56):
Does he have any playoff incentives?

Speaker 3 (33:58):
One of my.

Speaker 4 (33:59):
That was one of the coolest moments ever. Did Why
didn't they quadruple team him?

Speaker 3 (34:05):
Though?

Speaker 4 (34:05):
That's one thing that I don't understand. Don't you have
a modicum of pride? I mean unless they're just cool
with it, like they're like, let my guy, Mike Evans,
get the bag.

Speaker 3 (34:14):
But don't you just trouble?

Speaker 6 (34:16):
But they tried.

Speaker 4 (34:17):
I don't know, did they really? Like as soon as
Mike Evans went into motion and was on the slot
on the opposite side, like there was only one route
that guy was running and it was a sprint out
route to get five yards.

Speaker 3 (34:29):
Oh good moment though, that that was really fun.

Speaker 4 (34:33):
One of my favorite punts, by the way, was when
I was down in Florida was if I like somebody
for first touchdown, I would always throw a small stake
on first touchdown and then two touchdowns in the same
game parlay, because why not, Like, if they already hit
the first touchdown value, might as well go for like
the plus four thousand plus five thousand of them scoring
a second touchdown later in the game. Well, we're all
opposing sides with our leans with regards to the total.

(34:56):
In this spot, you have a slight lean towards the over.
I'll let you go first.

Speaker 1 (35:01):
Yeah, I mean, I just don't see these teams getting
many stops and it's just going to be perfect conditions.
Man in Florida. So it's these teams scored fifty seven
or whatever it was the last time. I think that's
for a very good reason. Tampa Bay, their secondary is
really bad man and Washington. I mean, Jayden Daniels has

(35:24):
not looked the best of late, but I think he's
probably ready for a better game this time out, and
he could hardly have a better spot here against this
anonymous secondary. And then you have unless Marshawn Lattimore comes
out and just Rex Mike Evans. But dude, Baker is
throwing for five touchdowns a week. I mean, I know

(35:46):
it's buying high in theory on both but like, the
total could honestly be higher and it wouldn't have surprised me.
I mean, fifty and a half with these offenses and
these defenses. I mean, would you even blink if this
game was in the thirties both ways?

Speaker 4 (36:00):
No, but I still look at it and I still
see dan Quinn Pod Bowls, first playoff game for Jayden Daniels,
first big playoff game. I feel like for Baker as
a favorite, he kind of played a free role last
year against the Lions where he could just go and
just let it all hang out. But now you're at

(36:21):
home division winner, I feel like a lot more on
the line, and this is a Bucks team where they
kind of, yeah, this is definitely a squeaky bum lemon
booty cap. The Bucks are thirty first in neutral situation pace,
and it's because they love Rashad White and Bucky Irving

(36:41):
and they're not afraid to turn in hand. And it's
not like Liam Cohen is making the same mistakes as
offensive coordinators of the past, where every single Byron left
w was just every single first and tent with a
plunge into the line. But I think there is some
balance to this Bucks off where it's just not necessarily

(37:01):
guaranteed to be a fireworks show. So yeah, I could
just see some tightness in this game and the old
classic Primetime under in a game where it's listed in
the fifties.

Speaker 3 (37:15):
From a side.

Speaker 4 (37:17):
Perspective, I mean, I wanted to come into this loving
the Commanders just take the money line and see if
they get advance to the next round. But I am
very concerned about this defense against a red hot Bucks offense.
And I mean Jalen McMillan. We talk about this in

(37:38):
the fantasy space a lot. We talk about rookies ascending
at the end of their first year because they're learning
to play the position, and then you get some spike
weeks toward the end of the season and man oh man,
when it was absolutely third and gotta have it on
a huge play last week, it was Jalen McMillan, not
Mike Evans making the play, and that guy is really

(38:00):
stepped into this role in the absence of Chris Godwin.
So I don't think there's an outcome in this game
that is going to surprise me. That said, I'm rooting
for both of these teams. I think both of these
teams have the ability to play spoiler next week because
of how good these offenses are playing. So I think

(38:21):
whoever wins this game, you'll probably be hearing about them
from me in some way, shape or form entering into
the divisional round.

Speaker 1 (38:30):
Speaking of Jalen McMillan, I think I touted him for
three straight weeks anytime touchdown and he keeps scoring. I
don't know if they fix the lines yet, but I
would maybe look at that in a game with a
total of fifty, if he's still close to plus two hundred,
which was just a stupid line they were just baking
in basically all those early leaks early weeks, like you

(38:51):
were saying, and just not factoring in. Okay, he's in
a bigger role now, he's established, the offense has changed,
and they kept making him plus two hundred and he
kept scoring, and then I think they might have finally
fixed it last week where he was only like plus
one forty. But it's definitely something to look for, because,
like you said, he has a legitimate WR two role now,

(39:13):
especially when Kate Aten was out.

Speaker 4 (39:15):
That was crazy, all right, The final game Monday Night
Football potentially out here in LA, potentially in Arizona. It's
Vikings at Rams. The Vikings are short road favorites right now,
I'm seeing one in a total of forty eight sixty
four percent of the tickets are on the Vikings, who
lost out on the one seed and the division on

(39:38):
the final regular season game on the road against the
Detroit Lions, and I want to tell you, guys, I
wanted to absolutely love the Rams in this spot some
post Lions flew. We've seen that stat all year long
about teams that play the Lions get beat up and

(39:59):
then strugg the following week. We already saw this Rams
team win in this spot at home against the Minnesota Vikings.
And there's just a part of me that thinks that
Sam Donald was kind of broken a little bit last week.
He reverted back to the pumpkin that we know he

(40:20):
is in a really tough spot. Yeah, Aaron Glenn did
a tremendous job. Yeah, the Lions backups did even better
in their assignments to create some tough windows for Sam Donald.
But at the end of the day, they were plays
there to be made. There were throws there that could
have turned this game and put the Vikings in a
position to win and he just flat out didn't execute.

(40:43):
So what are the odds that this guy's just in
his head for a week, has to make a road
trip in a playoff game and kind of just stinks
it up again against a team that generated a ton
of pressure against Minnesota last time. I believe Jared Vers
had a sack and a half. Kobe Bryant had a
sack in that game of Rams team that rested all

(41:05):
of their key players, basically coming off of a bye.
So I'm kind of interested in LA in the spot. Oh,
you're kind of interested in the over in the spot?

Speaker 1 (41:17):
Yeah, I was gonna say the Well, the most interesting
part of that someone's interested in LA. I mean they
have gone from I mean you can get the minus now.
They were plus two and a half two days ago.
So someone with market influence is shoveling money in on
the Rams. So are they sharp? I don't know, but

(41:39):
somebody is listening and changing the line right now.

Speaker 3 (41:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (41:43):
I don't see too many stops coming with these two
teams again, But this the other one, I expected the
total to be high, and it was this one. It's high,
but it's not crazy high. You're looking at forty seven
indoors where two passing offenses that have done quite a
bit of damage. That being said, every time I think

(42:06):
Matt Stafford is going to do something positive, he completely
turns into a pumpkin fake elite Matt Stafford. So am
I actually gonna bet this?

Speaker 3 (42:15):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (42:16):
I need the Rams for my future. That was my
other NFC bet. I got thirty to one on the Rams.
I don't feel great about it. Matt Safford has had
like one good game in six weeks or something, guys,
So I don't feel good about this. I think the
Vikings should be favored. I think they're a better team.
I think they had a tough game against a very

(42:38):
good team on the road, and like you said, Sam
Arnold played his worst game of the season. Most likely
he's going to bounce back here against a much weaker defense.
Now that being said, last time these two teams played,
the Rams legitimately kicked Minnesota's ass. So I don't know
what to make of that. But I'm listening because I'm

(42:59):
curious what you guys made of that.

Speaker 4 (43:01):
Brett, Donny anything on this game. Interested to hear Brett,
You've kind of you're shaking your head over there. You've
been a bit of a Viking supporter since the preseason.
Is Donald going to bounce back in a major way?

Speaker 3 (43:13):
I don't.

Speaker 5 (43:15):
I didn't like what I saw from the last week.
I don't know, man. I mean this was a hard
game to cap too, because I don't know what's going
on with like where is this game even going to
be played? I think it's just a lot of uncertainty
around this one, so I kind of stayed away from it.
I don't really have a whole lot.

Speaker 6 (43:30):
I'm scared shitless of Donald. I mean, Donald, he's in
the biggest spot of the season, playing for the one seed,
and he looks like a total pumpkin. So what if
that sort of same scenario translates to the playoffs, which
are massive. You win, you continue, you lose, you're going home.
I mean, that's the worry here.

Speaker 4 (43:50):
Who's playing against backups too, That's what's worrisome. I again,
I want to give Glenn his flowers, and I want
to give the players their flowers too, because they executed
extremely well. But we've seen the Lions defense struggle mightily
for several weeks heading into that game, and you've got
Justin Jefferson and you've got koc drawing it up and

(44:13):
there was just a very strong failure to execute in
that spot.

Speaker 3 (44:17):
I'm worried.

Speaker 5 (44:18):
Dude, who was this kid on Jefferson last week?

Speaker 1 (44:21):
I mean Robertson That dude was a wash out from
the Raiders.

Speaker 3 (44:24):
But he came from the Lock last week. Dude, didn't
they play?

Speaker 6 (44:28):
He said afterwards, they played together like in high school
or against each other, like going back to high school.
They've had all that, you know, rapport.

Speaker 5 (44:36):
That's amazing.

Speaker 3 (44:37):
Came from the mud Man. That's cool. That was an
awesome lock speech from that guy.

Speaker 4 (44:42):
The Lions man, they can't keep they so let's just
have a larger conversation. I guess we could bring the
Chiefs and the Lions. I joked about this, but I
think this is I think this is a live parlay.
If you were to give me eight to one that
neither the Vikings nor Lions win a playoff game, I

(45:03):
would take it.

Speaker 1 (45:04):
The market is just absolutely gaga. Again. They move them
ahead of the Chiefs in the Super Bowl futures based
on that one game. The Chiefs had been clearly ahead
of the Lions before that, and then that one game
the markets all in on the Lions again one game.

Speaker 4 (45:22):
Who are the Lions getting stops against that? I don't
think people fully realize the amount of very good play
things that don't. But well, and that's the sick thing too,
is that there's like such a dearth of quarterback play
in the NFC that perhaps there is a path for

(45:42):
them to exist and survive with this defense. But I
think the Eagles have such a trench advantage against them,
especially with all these backups.

Speaker 3 (45:54):
And again, I'm going.

Speaker 4 (45:56):
To be very interested in the Bucks or Commis in
Detroit because their pass off. You're what's about Packers, bro Packers?
If the Packers win, I'm I'm I hope, I'm rooting
for you guys. The Eagles are still good though. If
the Eagles take care of business, I think the Commies

(46:17):
I was looking at the Commis winning the NFC.

Speaker 3 (46:19):
I put this in discord.

Speaker 4 (46:21):
I think the Commedies can mess around and make the
Super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (46:27):
Dude, they got I've got ol The meed o let
means Ola me's good for a bucket a touchdown? Every
game now is two touchdown? It is two touchdowns?

Speaker 1 (46:41):
What's Ola Meade? Super Bowl MVP.

Speaker 3 (46:45):
There's no way it's lined. Yeah, they won't. They won't,
let you bet it.

Speaker 5 (46:51):
I can't wait for the Packers to be favored as
a seventh seed in the NFC Championship because they will
be favored against three of the other teams. On the
other side, they'll be favored against the Rams, They'll be
favored against the Commies, They'll be favored against the Bucks,
and how maybe even the Vikings.

Speaker 3 (47:08):
I'm worried about the Lions. I'm worried about the Lance.

Speaker 1 (47:10):
Weren't they just plus wanting in Minnesota?

Speaker 3 (47:14):
I think the Lions are gonna struggle.

Speaker 6 (47:16):
I can't be worried about the Lions.

Speaker 3 (47:17):
I can't.

Speaker 1 (47:18):
I can't do it.

Speaker 6 (47:19):
Every week they do the same crap. They come out
and they just win. It's just how can you be worried.

Speaker 5 (47:24):
Because Campbell is gonna He's gonna blow it off again.
It's gonna happen.

Speaker 4 (47:29):
On the other side of the bracket. I don't know,
man on the other side of the bracket. Every they're
they're doing it again. Every single smart person with a microphone,
a show, a podcast, a column, a Twitter account. The
Ravens are coming out of the AFC. According to everybody.
There's not a single person that thinks anybody but the
Baltimore Ravens are coming out. The amount of disrespect for

(47:54):
Patrick Mahomes is outrageous, okay, And I think it's stink
spread that the Ravens have such it seems like a
very large mismatch against your Bills. Like, I'm sorry, that
just has to be terrifying knowing that they are right
around the corner.

Speaker 3 (48:13):
But what are we doing out here? What are we
doing burying Reed and Mahomes again.

Speaker 1 (48:21):
Mo, I don't get it, especially when I think Hollywood
Brown legitimately helped matters.

Speaker 3 (48:27):
I mean he matters solid. Yes, their entire speed element,
everything that they were doing with Rashi at the beginning
of the season, everything they wanted that receiver position to
be from a speed perspective. You just can plug Hollywood
in and do most of that stuff with him.

Speaker 5 (48:43):
I keep hearing that the Chiefs aren't as good as
they were last year, and defensively for sure, yes, but
fun of these weapons they have now on offense, Like,
the offense has to be better right now than it
was last year, even without Rashi.

Speaker 1 (48:55):
Rise and then you got Joe Toney somehow playing halfway
decent left tackle that is helping, and Spags always brings
his best stuff out in the playoffs. Yeah, I still
feel good about the Chiefs. I mean, if anyone doesn't
feel good about the Chiefs, I would be. I don't

(49:15):
understand it because I think they're playing their best again
in January. Try to hide your shock and I just yeah,
I think they're ready to go and just roll at
home to the Arrowhead Invitational. And if the Ravens are
minus one in Kansas City, I have a lot of

(49:36):
money on the Chiefs.

Speaker 5 (49:37):
Guys, come on, that can't There's no way, right, I mean,
the Ravens blow it every year, every year, every year
they blow it.

Speaker 3 (49:47):
This is the season too.

Speaker 4 (49:48):
Because Lamar I was pretty firmly in the joshua An
MVP camp. But there was a stat that kind of
blew my mind today that Lamar he broke the passer
rate record and thin it was like one forty four
and a half. And that's just on top of all
the things he does as a runner. Like nobody, I

(50:10):
don't think anybody can make a strong argument. I mean,
just flip a coin between Lamar and josh they both
had outstanding seasons.

Speaker 3 (50:19):
This year. So the outcome of that race isn't isn't.

Speaker 4 (50:22):
Really going to make a difference to me, Bret, you unmuted.

Speaker 5 (50:26):
But is it a team award or is it a
player award? Because look, well that's players Lamar has around
him on offense.

Speaker 4 (50:33):
That's for sure, and the play caller as well, like
as a as a fan of a team with the
head coach.

Speaker 3 (50:40):
Opening. When Joe Brady was announced of having an interview,
I wasn't too keen on that because he's probably just
a Josh Allen merchant.

Speaker 5 (50:52):
I think he's been great.

Speaker 1 (50:54):
One thing. I'm actually ready to just like that against
the Ravens next round. If it sounds like Jay Flowers
might be out, I mean I think he might matter.
He's the only Ravens pass catcher that you're remotely afraid of.
I know that Mark Andrews is solid, and he makes plays,
and he's trustworthy, and he's a monster in the red zone.

(51:15):
And Rashad Bateman has shown some flashes. These guys are
not keeping defensive coordinators up at night, and maybe Jay
Flowers isn't either, but he's definitely the most dangerous one.
He makes a lot of big plays. I think he matters,
and I think if he's not out there, I would
be ready to take the bills.

Speaker 4 (51:33):
Teams tell you how they feel through transactions, and the
Ravens are a team that went out and traded for
Deontay Johnson. Obviously didn't work. It was a complete disaster,
but they looked at their receiver room and said this
needs improvement. Let's go get this guy.

Speaker 3 (51:48):
It didn't work, so they.

Speaker 4 (51:49):
Didn't get the help that they thought they needed, and
now they're wr one who, like you said, most probably
the only guy with juice on this team is out
for this week and could be out for an extended
period of time, which is troublesome. Or this Ravens pasket.
All right, super wild Card weekend. I'm so happy we're here.

(52:11):
There's gonna be a stinker or two. There always is,
but I feel like we've just been watching meaningless football
for multiple weeks save for that Vikings I mean, look
at that Vikings Lions game. We knew the stakes, we
knew the importance. It was kind of a crappy game
at the end of the day, the Lions kind of
not kind of the Lions dominated that contest, but you

(52:34):
can feel a football game, when it has stakes, when
it has meaning to it. It was different, and we
get six of those this weekend to see if people
can advance onto the divisional round. While these guys on
Twitter at Monora and you DOUBLEWRH, at britt Colson co
double l Son and at Donnie Underscore Peters, I'm at

(52:55):
rich t Ryan. Best of luck in your betting mentors
until next week eight