2025 Week 1: Road Favorites and Survivor Conundrums

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The Collective put together their Week 1 Card for the Circa Sports Million Contest with some uncharacteristic picks. They then discuss Circa Survivor, and how to pivot off of the popularity of the Denver Broncos.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Then, welcome back to Great Iron Cambele, the only podcast
that puts its money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
rich Ron, and I'm joined by the entire collective Disciple,
Brett Colson, Donnie DP Peters, and the Resident moves himself,

(00:29):
Mona Wara. If you're watching this on YouTube, please like
the video and subscribe to the channel. Listeners, rate and
review on your podcatcher of choice five stars only. Like
a man who is just ejected in the first NFL
game of the season, Jalen Carter, That's going to be
a very expensive loogie for my guy. Football is here.

(00:56):
If you guys are new, welcome, If you are returning,
welcome back. We are entering. We've entered, actually yesterday or
today it was Donnie always waits the very last second
to fire the entries in. We entered circa Sports Million,
where we will be putting five games against the spread
each week into the contest, one from each one of us,

(01:19):
any fifth and final one from the collective machine. Everyone
submits every game against the spread with a confidence rating,
and that final one comes from the most confidence amongst
the four of us. We were also in Circa Survivor,
which is a gaudy fifteen million dollars this year. We
each have our own entry into that contest. Survivor, bro

(01:44):
It's sixteen fifteen was the guarantee, right, it's up to sixteen. Yeah,
it's over sixteen.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
Wow.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
Wow wow wow wowcome got to Circa rip Westgate. I mean,
you guys really absolutely fumbled the bag on this one.
But yeah, Jeffrey Benson and the team at Circa, well done,
and we're excited to be there. And each week we
look at there's three components to the show. There's split games,

(02:11):
where there's two hosts on one side, two of us
on the other. There are lone wolves where a host
is on an island and has to defend their pick.
Then we will reveal the card, and then at the end,
if there are any consensus picks that don't make the
card that we have not discussed, we will talk about
those before ending with Survivors. So let's start with the
split contests. As I'm getting my bearings here, this is

(02:33):
the first show, there's always some bumps in the road
getting back on the bike, and we start in Cleveland
for an AFC North tilt between the Browns and the Bengals.
Let's see if I got my buttons here. There it is.
And we have very strong opinions on both sides of

(02:56):
this game, none stronger than Mo Nowarra, who is laying
the points with Joe Burrow on the road. The look
on Brett's face says it all.

Speaker 2 (03:10):
I knew I was gonna get into some trouble today.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
No, you're good, bro, You're good. You're totally good.

Speaker 2 (03:16):
Combination of hard and saw factors for me in this game.
One of them is that everyone's been talking the entire
offseason about how slow the Bengals have started, how bad
they've been against the Browns. I feel like this team
is going to come out ready to beat the piss
out of an absolutely awful Browns team, you guys, And

(03:40):
I think this line is probably at least a point short,
maybe two. The Bengals. They have struggled against this Browns defense,
that is, without a doubt, over the years. But here's
the thing. I'm looking at this Brown's defense. I don't
think I think this defense has significantly slipped, you guys.
I mean, just looking up and down this roster, I'm

(04:05):
multiple rookies slated to start. I mean, yes, they are
high draft picks, but rookies still usually come out and
get their asses kicked in pro football. You combine that
with a secondary that has degraded over the years. You
combine that with a pass rush that is basically Miles
Garrett and the fun Bunch. I mean, I don't know

(04:26):
who the rest of these guys are pretty much, so
I don't like this pass rush. I don't like really
anything about this defense. Losing Jokay was pretty big, plugging
in a rookie and a guy I've never heard of
as the starting linebackers. I don't think this is a
good defense anymore. So if you don't have a good defense,

(04:47):
the Bengals are probably going to score thirty on you.
And if the Bengals score thirty on you, that means
you need to score more than twenty four to cover
this number. And I have absolutely no idea how the
Browns are scoring twenty four points on anyone this year.
I understand the Bengals don't have a good defense, but
this is the Browns offense. This is Joe Flacco, who

(05:08):
is another year removed from being terrible multiple years ago. Guys,
I don't see anyway this ends well for the Browns,
and I think Flacco has the clock's got to be like,
you know, five weeks before this guy's replaced. So that's
probably the high end. So I think the Bengals are

(05:29):
just going to come out and probably kill the Browns.

Speaker 1 (05:31):
Brett, you have to wait just a little bit longer
because DP. I don't know what else there is left
to say because at the high drive from Mo, but
Donnie also has the Bengals in his top five.

Speaker 3 (05:42):
Yeah, I mean listen, like Mos said, this is at
least for me, you know, it's all really about the
offenses and the quarterbacks. Specifically, one of these teams can
score thirty plus the other one might not be able
to score fourteen. And I don't care how bad the
Bengals defense is. If there is not an offense on
the other side of the ball that is able to
score with the Cincinnati offense, then I think in here

(06:06):
it's justified that they are five point favorites on the road.
I think it is justified that Mo and I are
willing to lay those points. I think this whole narrative,
this nonsense about how the Bengals start slow, is just
gone way too f and far. Like that's all anyone
is talking about. And yeah, I really like the spot
for the Bengals overall.

Speaker 1 (06:27):
All right, Brett, obviously it's a split contest, so I
too am on the Browns, but I am extremely low
on this game. I think this game has a very
wide range of outcomes. That's why I didn't have a
very strong opinion on it. But Brett, you obviously have
one on the home dog in Cleveland.

Speaker 4 (06:44):
Yeah, a couple things to play here. First, Like most said,
I mean the Bengals, they are the most healthy they've
been coming into a season in recent memory, which is
big because they've embarrassed themselves in Week one what five
of the past six years. And that is the narrative
coming in is that their starters are playing the priests
in the preseason. They're getting in sync. Everyone's looking at that.
But I still don't think this team did enough to

(07:06):
address the gaping holes in this roster from last year
offensive line, defense, all the firepower in this offense, and
I still don't view this team as a playoff team
in the AFC. And so then how is a middleing
team a six point favorite on the road against any
NFL team, especially one that's in the same division and
that has a defensive line that can exploit their biggest

(07:29):
deficiency on offense. I got a stat here from cleve
Ta cleb TA and this could change obviously, but in
eight career starts against Cleveland, Burrow has generated a negative
EPA in four of those games. He only has twenty
negative EPA games in his career, So Cleveland has had
his number. And with Miles Garrett, Mason Graham up front

(07:51):
and a Jim Schwartz system that two or three years
ago had some of the best defenses in the NFL.
I just I love the spot for Eveland in Week one.
I think it's a great contest play too. Nobody's clicking
on Joe Flacco and the Sticky Browns after last year.
I just I love this one.

Speaker 1 (08:10):
Let's go contest plays in Week one, Baby forty B
just shut the damn podcast off. We were is just
as valuable as Week eighteen. So leverage, leverage doesn't matter
when you have it. Leverage is leverage to to back
up that point from there's a fight right now. I mean,
we're gonna have multiple detections in this contest. Helmets are off,

(08:30):
Punters are being thrown right now. On Lincoln Financial Field.
Keep it classy, Philadelphia, Donnie's favorite, Donnie's Favorite crew, living
up to the hype. I will back up started. I
mean Philly, I don't know either. I just I just
looked up and it was just Mayhem at the twenty
yard line.

Speaker 2 (08:45):
It was for sure Philly. The guy was ripping at
the ball after the thing and then and then he
ripped off a Dallas guy's helmet.

Speaker 1 (08:52):
Tobacup tobacco with Brett was just saying, I'm using DraftKings
handle this year because I think it's the most readily
available information ticket counts and stuff. The sources that I've
used previously are just kind of all up in the
air right now. The handles twenty seven percent on the Browns,
so heaps are coming in on the Bengal, So I
understand that angle. I just think to put up in

(09:14):
on this. I think there's a very wide range of
outcomes in this game, especially the most evident one is
on the Cleveland offensive side of the ball. What is
Joe Flacco going to look like? It's early on the season.
He hasn't been nicked up, he hasn't been knocked around.
Can he be a bit of a spring chicken and
get the ball to some playmakers that really are about

(09:37):
I know, Brett Swoon, Jerry Judy, Cedric Tillman is upright
right now. So can Cleveland keep pace with a Cincinnati
defense that is extremely suspect right in the event that
Cincinnati does go out in score. I do am buying
into the narrative. However, from a straight up perspective of

(09:57):
Cincinnati has heard nothing, but they start out slow. They
can't win in September for months now, and this feels
like in division could be a bit of a circle
spot for Burrow and the boys. Let's move to another
divisional tilt, this time a double cat game. As the

(10:18):
Carolina Panthers traveled to Oh it's not a division, it
should be a division. I was gonna say, wait again,
it's week one, guys. It's week one, guys. They're both
in the South, in different conferences. They travel to Jacksonville
to take on the Jaguars. The Jaguars are three and
a half point favorites, and Mo has the dog in

(10:40):
his top five talk about Carolina.

Speaker 2 (10:42):
Yeah, this one I just felt like maybe was a
hair too high on the hook. I do think this
Jaguars team is quite overrated, so I guess that's just
what this one comes down to to me. That being said,
I understand Carolina has an absolutely atrocious defense, so if
they had a very good game, it wouldn't surprise me.
I think Carolina can probably keep up. I don't like

(11:02):
this Jacksonville defense. They have maybe a couple of okay
pass rushers, but what did that result in? Nothing meaningful
last year. It's not like this team was getting after
the quarterback, and I don't see how anybody could like
the rest of this defense. So it makes me sad
that Jalen Coker is out to be honest, because he
was such a reliable target for the Panthers offense last

(11:25):
year and really kind of just help them to keep
up with the sticks in a lot of ways when
a lot of other parts of the offense were just
like boom Bus, especially the pass catchers like xavierly Get.
He was just a disaster pretty much. So they really
could have used Jalen Coker and obviously trading away feeling
like I know that his value is very limited this year,

(11:48):
but he was still moving the sticks too.

Speaker 1 (11:50):
He's a body, right, He's a body in a receiver
room that was lacking talent. Now all of a sudden,
you lose two guys.

Speaker 2 (11:56):
Yeah, he understands how to like get first downs by
finding the holes in the coverage. So in a league
where everybody wants to play zone seventy percent of the time,
that has value, right, So I'm a bit worried about that,
But overall, I just think this Jags defense is too stinky.
With a first time head coach who you know, for

(12:19):
all we know is going to be terrible. We have
no idea what he's going to be like. So I'm
gonna take the three and a half. Not super confidently,
but I'm going to take the three and a half.

Speaker 1 (12:29):
I think we know he's going to call a good game,
at least based on what we saw last year. And
but my biggest thing is, so going into this, if
you told me two weeks ago these lines, the Panthers
would have been in my top five for sure. Then
they traded Adam Thielan, then Jalen Koger went on ir
and then Ikiya Kwan Whu's appendix exploded. So everything is

(12:52):
going in the wrong direction for the Carolina Panthers, a
team who like you said, are not like to get
very many stops based on the personnel that they're going
to roll out on defense. I'm saying all this. Meanwhile,
Donnie has the highest opinion Ceedee, Lamb's going to go
for two hundred in this game. Donnie has the highest
opinion on the home team, the Jags in this game.

Speaker 5 (13:17):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (13:17):
I mean I was kind of flipping a coin on
this one, and then you know, as it was going
through my head, I went with the fact that I
want to go with the team here that I think,
and this is a very strong emphasis on think has
the higher upside in this spot. Meaning I'm buying into
some of that hype that Moe was selling. You know,

(13:37):
with Liam Cohen coming in, maybe he's the one that
gets Trevor Lawrence finally going in the right direction. And
if that happens, you know, I think this offense could
hum and they're up against a bad defense on the
other side of the ball. I mean, this wide receiver
room now just like looks super thin. Like it's kind
of scary to me. I don't know, I just feel

(13:58):
like the Panthers are going to be a pretty linear
team and I'll just gamble on that upside for an
offense that I think could put up a big number,
But it is a big if and I could be
coming out of this one with egg on my face
because again I'd said it before on one of our
earlier pods. I'm not fully bought into Trevor Lawrence, so
this to me is a big make it or break

(14:18):
it year for him. But if Liam Khan can get
him cooking, then then I think it's a great spot
for them.

Speaker 1 (14:23):
This next game also not a divisional till I'm not
going to make that mistake again, as the Titans travel
out West to take on bo Nix and the Broncos.
I have the highest opinion on this game. Yes, horses
can make that sound. I'm laying the eight and a
half with the Broncos in this game. It bubbled my

(14:46):
top five. I'm listening to what most said a couple
of weeks ago, or maybe last week when we were
discussing Week one, and I just think this is the
absolute worst spot for Cameron Word to walk into in
professional football, his first start at altitude against a ferocious

(15:07):
Broncos defense. I might be the number one can Ward
guy on this podcast, being a Miami supporter now that
my wife Jenner were there for two years, finally having
a team in unprofessed to support. Watching every snap of
his last year, I think he was the deserved first
overall pick, a deserved Heisman candidate. A lot of times

(15:28):
he made magic out of nothing because he had to.
And now you look at the summer so far for
his weapons that entered the league. You have a Restreppo
that got cut. You've got a Damien Martinez that can
barely crack the rotation. You've got an Arroyo something Arroyo
in Seattle who has absolutely no buzz at the tight

(15:50):
end position, And all of a sudden, it makes it
look like what cam Ward was doing last year even
more impressive in these games where his defense was giving
him no help and his offensive weapons were probably extremely lackluster.
So later on in the season, I might be the
number one Titan supporter on this podcast because I think
cam Ward could just be him. But I just think

(16:10):
this is an awful spot for a guy learning to
play pro football on the road, and the Broncos are
kind of not kind of they probably are the best
team in the league to play front running football right
to just get behind those Hogs up front kill a game.
Wisconsin's style, as Mo would always say, you know, run

(16:32):
the score up by just going straight. So I just
think it's an awful spot for the Titans, and that's
why I favor the Broncos. Here, Mo, you have the
highest opinion on the Tennessee Titans. They are very low,
but you got to pick up the shield.

Speaker 2 (16:46):
I just think that that basically has been hammered into
the market from jump Like this line was like seven
I think a couple months ago, So I think people
have basically pounded that angle into it until the numbers
reflecting it. So I just feel like at this point
I'm just gonna take the points and hope cam Ward

(17:07):
can can make a game of it. Here Would I
actually be betting the Titans, No, Because, yeah, like you said,
this is it's rough man, it's altitude, it's a very
tough pass rush. It's a pass rush that's facing an
offensive line that I think has quite a bit of talent.
But they've got a ways to go in terms of
like building continuity stuff like that. I think that's going

(17:28):
to take some time. And then you have a receiver
core that I don't expect to give him much, if
any help. So I'm not loving this situation. But that
being said, this is still a huge line and a
Denver team that, like you said, is good. But are
they a runaway from you good? I don't know. I
think this Titans defense has talent. I'm curious to see

(17:51):
what they end up producing. They weren't good last year,
but I feel like there's players on this team. Man,
I feel bad with how much slag Lagarious Sneed is
getting after he deserved it. He sucked last year. But
and he's my guy because he helped lead the Chiefs
to multiple Super Bowls. But maybe you know, getting fat

(18:14):
and happy.

Speaker 1 (18:16):
Lead lead the Chiefs, I was slamming the button to
turn it off. Lead the Chiefs to multiple Super rowles.

Speaker 2 (18:23):
Well he did. The defense was the best part of
those teams, and he was a key player on those defenses.

Speaker 1 (18:29):
Man, lead. Yeah, just to put a pin on the
Titans receivers. It's funny. So Calvin Ridley is going to
get his yards and touchdowns, right, He's a fantasy darling
because at the end of the year, when you look up,
he's going to have a yardage output in a touchdown
output that is somewhat impressive, but the path to getting
there is going to be so ugly and so laid

(18:51):
with disgusting drops and idiotic plays that we've seen over
and over again. So from like a real football perspective again, yeah,
I don't know how much help can is going to
have when Ridley is is wr one and he's got
something chigacon Quo running routes, the corpse of Tyler Lockett
playing meaningful snaps. So I just think it's gonna be
a rough start for the kid. And that's why I'm

(19:11):
on the Broncos. Split games out of the way. It's
time for some lone wolves. No loan wolves. In any
member of the collective's top five, I have the most

(19:36):
lone wolves with three, and one of them bubbled soft
bubbled my top five, and it is the Houston Texans
AHA traveling to Los Angeles, my backyard to take on
the Rams. Buttons are sticking here. Texan's getting three points

(19:58):
in the Dome. And this was a fairly easy cap
for me because this game. One of my first bets
this morning was under the total of forty four. I
think this is very much and under in this contest.
Two offenses that I think will struggle off the Bats
Texans maybe for the whole season because of their lack

(20:20):
of offensive line talent, and the Rams because who knows
what the helm at the Stafford is with a back.
Apparently there's some Javonte Williams two touchdowns. There's some stories
going around about Stafford's back that aren't the best, like
this guy is going to be needing to take the
highest grade of drugs to play pro football. The weekend

(20:45):
at Bernie's, memes have been flying, and at the end
of the day, these are two defenses that I really love.
The Rams came into form last year with a lot
of young talent. Jared Verse just immediately came into the
league and was a dude. And we know the talent
on him Houston and how much Jimiko Ryans is going
to have them ready to go from a defensive standpoint,

(21:05):
So I think this is just going to be a grindy,
low scoring affair that people just assume these quarterbacks indoors
is going to be a high scoring game. And if
I think it's going to be a grindy, low scoring affair,
I have to take the dog in this spot. MO Again,
the highest opinion on the other side, or did I

(21:25):
screw that? I'm already screwing this up, aren't I? Yes, Moe,
is this as this absolute last pick? It is Brett
who has the Rams bubbling Week one? Guys, Week one,
I'm gonna say I have thirty more minutes to say.
Week one, we've.

Speaker 4 (21:41):
Been talking about how this Houston offense might just be
bad with the bottom three offensive line, no running backs,
Stroud coming off a poor season, what's this confidence looking
like coming into the year. The only thing that looked
semi appealing was the receiving group, but even that now
might be without their number two option in Christian Kirk.
He hasn't practiced yet this week. So Yeah, as scary

(22:01):
as it feels to back Matt Stafford with the unknowns
about his back injury, it's still Matt Stafford do It's
a gamer does a baller. He's gonna go out and
do his thing. And the Rams are just a better
team in my eyes and should be laying more than three.
I just capped this at three and a half. LA
might be popular by Saturday, but I think that would
be for good reason.

Speaker 1 (22:19):
If if you told me in a couple of weeks
that Stafford is fully healthy and the Rams offense is
a wagon and DeVante Adams is that dude, It would
not shock me. And we could look back, and you're right,
this line looking back could be why wasn't this five,
five or six? Why wasn't the market pressure pushing this,
you know, closer to a touchdown? But with the information

(22:39):
that we have now, I just can't buy into the
Rams being a wagon just yet. Let's move to the
greatest football team, the greatest team. Everybody is folding Miami folding,
Mike McDaniel folding this offense that we've seen be one

(23:00):
of the most efficient in the league. And I understand
the offensive line concerns, I understand the defensive concerns on
this team, but I am not yet ready to put
my faith into Daniel Jones QB one for the Indianapolis Colts,
especially when, and this is one that I am very

(23:24):
certain of, eighty percent of the draft kings handle right
now is on the Indianapolis Colts. So I am not
going to line up with every drooler on the planet
to bet Daniel Jones and the Colts in Week one.
It's just not something I'm willing to do.

Speaker 2 (23:43):
They're not putting this on their cards though, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (23:47):
I think one of the most common narratives this summer
has been that the Dolphins will create. And I've said
it myself. I don't like the long term outlook of
this team. I think Mike McDaniel could be gone by Halloween.
But I do understand the upside case, right, and if
the Dolphins go out and score thirty plus and Tyreek

(24:07):
Kill is Tyreek Hill and this offense is humming, I
would be zero percent shocked from that outcome.

Speaker 4 (24:14):
That said, people might have a fous on their cards
because it's it's a pick in the contest, right, and
it's minus one and a half in real life. So
I mean, people are gonna look at that line value
and just click on the Colts if they'd like the
Colts DP.

Speaker 1 (24:28):
You have the highest opinion. They bubbled your top five,
So talk about indie listen.

Speaker 3 (24:35):
Daniel Jones scares me. I think that that's a given.
But can Miami necessarily do anything about it? Can this
offensive line get to him hurt? Sorry, defensive line get
to him? I mean, I don't know. I think Dimes
will be okay, Like I'm not asking for the world
as a ceiling for him.

Speaker 1 (24:56):
I'm asking just be okay against a team that.

Speaker 3 (25:00):
I think is not that good, and I feel like
they're just also in disarray. I mean, Richie brought up
the narrative of everyone you know talking about Miami's bad,
they're not gonna do anything whatever. I don't get the
sense in one bit that Miami gives a shit like
and and that's like a problem to me, Like I
don't know, like I don't think they like they get

(25:22):
all hot and bothered by the fact that people are
like saying that they're not gonna amount to anything. They
might go way under their win total, like first coach fired,
like all that sort of stuff.

Speaker 1 (25:31):
I don't know. I just and this is like totally for.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
All the poker players out there, field player, white magic, whatever.
The vibes I get out of Miami are just not
not good, like like they again they just don't care.
And then like if if indies defense, you know, speaking
more to the trenches is able to get after Tua
in any way, shape or form. We've seen this before too.
Under pressure is won a disaster to to get hurt.

(25:59):
Like so, I mean, how can I back Miami in
any way, shape or form here like this feels like, yeah,
it's probably gonna be popular. I do think that some
people will put her on their card. I'm not sure
if it'll be like a top three or five consensus pick,
but I think it'll be upper half. Like, I think
there's enough here to like. But I'm fine with having

(26:20):
that week one. I'm just trying to pick winners and
see where we go from there. This last one, I
am very certain. It is a division game. The Detroit
Lions travel to Lambeau to take on Green Bay Packers,
who are two and a half point favorites. This is

(26:41):
on the lower middle part of my card, garnering absolutely
no confidence points. But I'm just fading market sentiments. I'm
just fading everybody who is now in love with the Packers.
Who everyone who didn't listen to us, They should have
listened to us two or three weeks ago, when Brett
was out of here telling people it's coop them up
at twenty two hundred to win the Super Bowl.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
Now they made a trade. Who'd they get? Did they
get somebody important?

Speaker 5 (27:06):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (27:06):
Yeah, they got Michael Parsons, the guy who's not on
my television screen right now because he is in Lambeau.
But he might have to take an epidural to play
thro football, which is a bit wonky. I'm just this
is just a full fate of market sentiment here. Everyone's
down on the Lions lost both coordinators, sky is falling.

(27:27):
They can't be the same Lions, but they still have
the same talent on both sides of the ball. I
think this line is pretty much perfect, so I don't
have a very strong opinion here, and I'll see you
up to Brett, who is the Packers guy and who
had Green Bay Soft Bubble his top five.

Speaker 4 (27:43):
It's one of those weird spots where I liked the
Packers more on this spot before they got Michael Parsons,
they would have been on my card. If this was
sitting at one and a half without Michael Parsons, I
think this, and then that's a question of like did
it move from one and a half to two and
a half because of Parsons or was it ahead and
there anyway? Maybe would be it two. I love the Packers.
I did not put this on my car though, because

(28:03):
I feel like people are buying in now even and
what is Parsons even gonna be on Sunday. Even if
he does play, he hasn't played in this system yet.
I don't know how much they're even gonna use him.
So while I do like the Packers anyway, I don't
love the number in the fact that they're probably gonna
be pretty popular.

Speaker 1 (28:20):
Let's move to New Orleans, g CAR, where the Arizona
Cardinals are six and a half point favorites against the
home Saints and Monwora is Olympic style triple somersault diving
deep under the threshold and put in an X next

(28:44):
to Spencer Rattler didn't make us top five, but it
bubbled MO you like New Orleans?

Speaker 2 (28:51):
I just think this line is a little bit too high.
I mean, do I like New Orleans? I think this
is thirty two out of thirty two. I think this
is the worst team in the.

Speaker 1 (29:00):
L But.

Speaker 2 (29:03):
At the end of the day, you're still trusting Kyler
Murray to go cover a decent sized number on the
road when you take the Cardinals here. And I don't
know if I do, but I think they should definitely
go there and win. But like what I do, I
want to lay points like six and a half here.

(29:24):
I don't know, man, this team is going to try
to run the ball. I think that's another thing. It
might work. But I don't know the Saints. I think
this team still has professional pride.

Speaker 4 (29:35):
Man.

Speaker 2 (29:36):
I don't think they're just gonna come out and get
trucked by a you know, Okay Arizona offense that hasn't
really like Kyler Murray is not a guy you trust
to just go out and blow people out, right, Like
I like to back Kyler Murray when he's an underdog
when the line is close. I don't like to back

(29:58):
Kyler Murray when I need some point wins. So I
don't think the Saints are are remotely good. But I
could see this game being closer than the market thinks.
So I'm I clicked on the Saints. I think it's
I think there's some value when I actually bet it
probably not.

Speaker 1 (30:19):
I'm proud of DP. This is one that I was
staring at. I knew I should just love the Cardinals.
Spencer Rallery is just so so bad, And I understand
what you're saying though about it's Week one. The Saints
haven't quit yet, right. They do have a bunch of
veterans in the front seven. But at what point in

(30:40):
the contest are the Saints going able to put together
first downs and score points. I just I don't know.
I don't know how much magic they can get out
of the new headball coach there. But Donnie did the
damn thing and he put the Cardinals in his stuff lot.
I don't even have any notes. The Saints are so

(31:00):
f and bad. What is the point of this game?

Speaker 3 (31:03):
I'm serious, Like you want to say that the Saints, Yeah,
they might have some professional pride, Yeah, until Spencer Ratler
throws three balls and then that's done. Like I just like,
I'm you guys know, I'm not that high on the
Cardinals overall, Like I call them the highlight show. Like
I it doesn't. But do you really have to be
that good against the Saints? This team looks so bad,

(31:23):
like consensus the worst team in the league. When this
this league has the Cleveland Browns with Joe Flacoy quarterback,
like and it is just hands down there, thirty two
out of thirty two, they should cover this number of
the Cardinals. If all the love that the Cardinals get
and their coach gets and all this sort of stuff,
they should cover this easily. I mean, there's obviously a

(31:45):
chance it doesn't happen, Yes, but it should, for freaking
shit sake happen, Like it just should happen. Okay, And
I don't care. I put down no notes. This was
just snap number one, Like it does not matter to
me pick winners in week one.

Speaker 1 (31:57):
The Cardinals are gonna win my fucking fourteen points. You
know what's so interesting here too, is that this season,
every Survivor pool is just going to be clicking against
the Saints every single week. And yet when I look
at projected ownership over at our friends Survivor grid dot com,

(32:18):
the Cardinals are third, right, like people were just scared
to I guess click a road team, click a Cardinals team.
That they just don't have a good taste in their
mouth from previous history. So I do not see this
being popular in circa whatsoever. And I'm talking about the
Cardinals minus six and a half. So the Saints are

(32:38):
just they're going to be so bad. I don't know
what the path is.

Speaker 3 (32:42):
I mean I did this last year, by the way,
and the Saints won by forty and week one, so
that there's a chance that that could happen too. Okay,
because I did pick the Panthers last year and the
Saints won by eight thousand points, Like it was ridiculous.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
I just do, what is the path to the Saints,
especially on offense, being competitive based on what we saw.

Speaker 2 (33:04):
I think it's a lave in Shaheed.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
That's it.

Speaker 2 (33:06):
I think it's a lovy in Shiheed.

Speaker 1 (33:09):
You just have to. But the problem is that Shaheed
is such a deep ball merchant that you can't even
like scheme. I see what you're saying there, Brett, but
like even like his crossers and stuff like, you can't
run tunnel screen. You can't run the Dolphins offense with Shaheed.
That like quick tunnel screen Tyreek game that the Dolphins

(33:30):
run like. That's what's made to a tag of Ala,
an objectively bad quarterback into a highly efficient quarterback, is
that they've been able to get the ball into playmakers
quickly at the line of s kirmage by design, and
those guys make plays. I don't really see Shaheed or
alive A being those type of players. I think they
both kill people in the intermediate and deep part of football,

(33:50):
but I don't see either of them as being like
quick play demons. So I just I just don't see
the path to the same playing good offensive football, and yeah,
I think they could get crushed as well. Let's go
up too, Buffalo. The Bills make me wanna where an

(34:11):
extensive injury report is not stopping Mo Noara from clicking
The Buffalo Bills against the Baltimore Ravens.

Speaker 5 (34:21):
Cock.

Speaker 2 (34:23):
I just thought that the Bills should maybe be minus
one here. That being said, this is a maybe a
pick them. This is close. I don't see much value
on like betting the Bills really or like, I guess
the thing you won't need to always look at is

(34:45):
how does the other team deal with kind of the
Bills twelve personnel and power game, right, I feel like
that's maybe the best way to attack the Ravens. I
know they were great against the Rum last year, but
this secondary, especially while Jaiyir is going to play, apparently
only could be really really good. And the Bills don't
really approach football that way. So if they turn this

(35:07):
game into a meat grinder, then I think they've got
a chance. But I do think the Ravens are the
best regular season team in the NFL. I mean, I
have more confidence in the Chiefs in January, but for
obvious reasons. But right now I would take the Ravens
roster over anyone I think, so, you know, I just

(35:30):
think they're a bit better than the Bills. Are they
so much better that they should be favored on the road?
Feels like a slight stretch, But I you know, Brett
always knows when the Bills play the Ravens. He calls
all of the blowout losses. So he's telling me I'm wrong,
so he must be right.

Speaker 1 (35:48):
Brett, can can you do me a favorite? If the
Bills want a chance in this game, don't they just
have to get Ken Dorsey on the line. You gotta
throw the ball man, Gota. You gotta be aggressive in
this spot because with these these Buffalo injuries, Trey White
looking like he's not gonna play, You're gonna need all

(36:09):
the firepower you can get on offense.

Speaker 4 (36:12):
It's a good point. I mean, this offense worked against
everybody the last few years, but it's not gonna work
against the Ravens. You can't run on the Ravens like
the Bills I have done against everybody else. I just
I just don't like this spot for the for the Bills. Again,
I mean, looking at the line. So the Ravens came
here last year, they closed his minus one, minus one
and a half point favorites, and now they're sitting in

(36:34):
most books at plus one plus one and a half
despite being healthier and probably a stronger roster too. In
Circa has made this Ravens minus one, which I love
because Mo, everyone's gonna look at the number like you
did and say, why why are the Bills underdogs? Why
is there a plus next to Buffalo? I think the
Bills are gonna be super popular in the contest, But

(36:55):
balt Baltimore, to me, is a better team with a
better coach. They've been preparing for this game for a
while with that better coaching staff, remembering what happened in
Buffalo a few months ago. I just expect them to
come in with a better game plan, attack the advantages
they have on the field, and there are a lot
of them on offense. Derek Henry bullied this team on
the ground last year, and the Bills can't just stack

(37:16):
the box against him because that leaves now this battered
secondary vulnerable to deep throws to Flowers to Bateman. It's
just a really poor setup for Buffalo this week. And yeah,
for the contest, especially the Ravens just have to be
the side with circummoving this through a meaningless number.

Speaker 1 (37:34):
I think.

Speaker 4 (37:35):
I think the Bills are going to be a top play.
It could be one where a lot of people on
the Ravens too. This is one of those games that
I will just have an opinion.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
I do the game of the week and just both
top five.

Speaker 1 (37:45):
Seventy eight percent of the DK handle right now on Baltimore,
So yeah, I lean towards everybody having an opinion on
this game. Donnie. By the way, was that quintuple or
sextuple circled over there? Because that's all that's literally all
the illustrators like when I do that. That's all the
Ravens have been doing the past couple of months, is

(38:06):
circling this matchup after that Mark Andrews drop and loss
in the playoffs last year. Brett, We're going to keep
it with you and I'm very sure that this is
a divisional game. As the Monday night cap on Week one,
the Minnesota Vikings travel to Chicago take on the Bears,

(38:29):
and Brett is laying a point and a half with
JJ McCarthy in his first start in pro football.

Speaker 4 (38:37):
I don't have much here. I think this is a
fair line. I just trust KOC with his new quarterback
over Ben Johnson with his quarterback in a new system
for the first time. That's really what it comes down to,
and that's that's that's the cap.

Speaker 2 (38:50):
You hate Caleb Williams, you do hate Caleb Williams.

Speaker 4 (38:54):
I don't hate Caleb Williams. I think this is I mean,
I think Caleb Williams is super talented, and now that
he's got a coordinator with a brain, Caleb Williams could
be awesome this year. I just don't trust it yet.
I want to see it first. With Ben Johnson.

Speaker 1 (39:09):
This is just this might be a rule of stubborn
and I'm trying to be as less stubborn as possible.
Shout outs to ODB this season, but you just cannot
get me to lay points on the road in a
divisional spot with JJ McCarthy in this game. And I
love KOs. I think what KOs did last year with

(39:31):
Donald is some of the best coaching you will ever
see in pro football. But at the end of the day,
the guy with the helmet under center, who touched the
ball on every single play still has to execute and
we know Donald from a talent perspective, when everything is
clean and everything is blocked for him, we know Donald

(39:52):
met the threshold to execute that. We had seen it
at USC, we had seen it at his peak in
New York, in Carolina, and we just haven't seen it
from JJ McCarthy, a guy who played on a run
first Big ten collegiate Harbaugh team, who it's just not

(40:12):
been asked of him to make these type of plays
against an NFL defense, and an NFL defense as good
as the Bears projects to be. Some interesting injuries here.
This is, of course a Monday game, so only one
days of injury reports. But I don't like seeing as
a Bears backer TJ. Edwards with a hamstring injury. As
a DMP today, he plays a critical role at linebacker

(40:36):
for them, so that is something to certainly keep an
eye on. But yeah, I just refuse to refuse to
lay points with Jj in this spot. DP, this soft
bubbled your top five.

Speaker 3 (40:48):
Yeah, I'm with you, Rich And you know Brett you
said you know you have to show me. Well, I
would say the same thing to JJ McCarthy, like you
got to show me, And what I think is a
pretty tough spot I don't think that Chicago necessarily gets
a lot of love as a really tough place to play,
but I think it's fair like I think that fan
base comes to support their team. I think they have

(41:10):
a really good defense there. And this is a super
big spot for a guy who I know it's technically
his second year, but is a rookie. I mean, so
I have to just take the points in this spot.
And I know some of that is some blind faith
in believing in Ben Johnson and what he's ultimately able
to do with Caleb and that offense. But I mean,

(41:31):
I think you're kind of just flipping coins there because
you can do the same thing on the other side
with JJ McCarthy.

Speaker 1 (41:37):
So you know, I.

Speaker 3 (41:38):
Think this one, with all those things considered, I mean,
why isn't just more a pick or Bears minus Born
or something like that. You know, I don't know, to
just make the Bears underdogs here, I think is I
don't know, questionable to me.

Speaker 1 (41:53):
At least that's where im at. I've got the Texans, Dolphins,
and Lions, a trio of road team. Spretat's got the Vikings, Mohas,
the Saints, and Bill's all right, boys, let's make the
first card of the twenty twenty five.

Speaker 5 (42:10):
Season nine eight, six, five, four three two one fire.

Speaker 1 (42:27):
I didn't bring up last year at all because we
had a horrific year. It was one of those bury
the ball, burn the tape, don't even think about what
happened in the previous game types of years for the collective.
Ya Boy was the only member of the Collective to

(42:49):
have an above five hundred season at fifty two point
eight percent. So I am up first here in week
one and I am going full Homer. Maybe whoop they
gave us as I dropped my hat on video. I
was too excited they gave us the full three in

(43:13):
the contests I'm seeing two and a half in real life.
Is this going to be impactful? My brain says yes,
it is going to be impactful if this number doesn't
actually get the three in real life, because people love
taking value. However, I have not heard a single person
say a positive thing about this matchup in favor of

(43:35):
Gang Green, especially after Elijah verh Tucker tore the triceps
in his other arm and it is now out for
the season. The silver lining here is that because John
Simpson has been dealing with an issue all camp. The
Jets have essentially been operating as if Joe Tittman was

(43:57):
a guard and Josh Myers was a center, So they
have been practicing literally four weeks for this scenario. So
Tip is ready to jump in at guard and Myers
will play the center position with which he played last year.
In the last couple of years for the Green Bay Packers,
this is just a horrific spot for the Steelers. It

(44:17):
really is the Steelers when they play at home, when
they play against defenses that can't play pressman, that can't
be aggressive, that can't stop the run. I think the
Steelers will be able to run this methodical, slow Arthur

(44:38):
Smith offense and have some success. The Jets had a
big weakness at defensive tackle and then went out and
traded for a couple of events, Harrison Phillips chief amongst them,
who they just needed a warm body next to Quinn
Williams and they did not have one on the roster.
Now I'm much more comfortable with this defriends a front

(45:00):
and honestly, I think the only weakness on this defense
is at the safety position, and I don't think anybody
on this podcast thinks that Aaron Rodgers is going to
be driving the ball downfield, so I'm not really worried
about Andre Cisco having to defend deep passes against DK Metcalp.
I just do not see Rogers throwing the ball downfield.

(45:22):
So if I don't think Pittsburgh can get out and
push a lead and dominate the Jets and score on offense,
I just don't see a scenario with which they can
be this heavily favored on the road. And I know
I've gone a very long time without mentioning justin fields
and the limitations that this Jets offense is likely going

(45:43):
to have this season, But this is kind of a
dreamy matchup when the Steelers are already down a defensive
tackle and with Derek Harmon, and there's a chance that
most likely Cam Hayward is just being pissy and come
game day he will show up and play for Pittsburgh,

(46:04):
but at this juncture him walking on on practice today
like there's a chance that Cam Hayward doesn't play in
this game, and the Steelers are without two defensive tackles,
So I think the Jets can establish it a little bit.
I don't think they'll need to do much on offense
in a low scoring game with Pittsburgh, So yeah, I think.
And then obviously the last bit is just this team

(46:27):
hated Aaron Rodgers. The guys in this locker room hated
Aaron Rodgers. This dude went on McAfee and called Aaron
Glenn the coach and was very disrespectful to that process.
So I think there's going to be a lot of
animosity and a lot of hate from the Jets side,
which I don't think the Steelers will have for Justin Fields,

(46:48):
who was allegedly like a very loved guy in the
locker room. So quadruple circle, low scoring home dog, j
e Ts, Jets, Jets, Jets. This was a consensus pick. Brett,
you were the lowest on Gang Green. Love to hear
your trepidations.

Speaker 4 (47:10):
I don't really have any. I think part of it
is the just the number. I think this probably will
get to three, though I haven't really been watching it
this week, But what do you think?

Speaker 2 (47:23):
It's looking heavily juiced on the two and a halfs
that you find, so I'm feeling like it's gonna at
least be three at some point. Obviously, the contest closes
at a certain time, so you know, maybe it goes
to three before or after, and that that has.

Speaker 1 (47:44):
An influence At Penny the minus two and a half
is minus one twenty right now, which on Pinnacle is
like a boatload of juice.

Speaker 4 (47:53):
So yeah, yeah, I don't really have a whole lot
of trepetition. I picked Jets, you know better than I do.
What this offensive line is gonna look like without their
now their best offense offensive lineman out for the season.
That was my biggest concern really is like, what what
does this offensive line look like against high Tower and
Watt and that crew.

Speaker 1 (48:14):
Yeah, I mean this is one of those where from
a librarying perspective, if the Steelers do find a way
to get out and get into a lead, like we
should be live betting the Steelers because any scenario with
which the Jets become a pure drop back passing team,
they're gonna get their asses kicked, especially against the defensive
front as good as Pittsburgh's. So yeah, if you're watching

(48:34):
this game, you're probably not keting onto This is probably
red zoned or maybe in your four box at one
PM with eight games going on. But if the Steelers
do score first, score early, get out to a lead.
I think Steelers Live might be the play because, yeah,
if the Jets have to play pure drop back football,
they're gonna get cooked. But if this is a neutral state,

(48:54):
a positive state for the Jets, I think they can
hang in and win this game out right, is Mo.
When we returned to the split game segment.

Speaker 2 (49:06):
Yeah, sorry Brett, but uh I got the Bengals. I
hate this week. I mean, I don't know what you
guys want from me, but I had I thought this
line was off, and uh, I think the Bengals. Basically
everything Donnie said about how he feels about Cardinals against
Saints that that's kind of how I feel about the
Bengals here. I think they could just come out and

(49:28):
smack the Browns.

Speaker 1 (49:30):
I love it, DP. DP loves it too, because dp's
filing on with the chalk.

Speaker 3 (49:35):
Yeah, of course I had the Bengals on my top five,
and I'm also gonna put the Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (49:39):
On cor My buttons aren't one. Well, he's favorite road
favorite Week one Road favorites.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
Out great. I don't care.

Speaker 1 (49:53):
I'm just trying to pick winners in Week one and
I'll go from there. Okay, just hashtag winners. If we
five and old the whole damn way. I don't care
about leverage. He's right, you know, if we go ninety
and h I guarantee we won't lost this contest, all right, Brett,

(50:13):
bring us back to reality. A consensus. Pick another team
we've discussed all off season, like your Packers, like your Cardinals,
and another New York team.

Speaker 4 (50:27):
Yeah, I've got the New York Giants against the Commies.
I want to talk process a little bit because we're
probably gonna have new listeners to the show this week,
so I want to explain my logic of thinking here
as we started this season. I said last week or
two weeks ago, one of the things I was looking
at going into week one is where this number was
trending and what Circa would do with this game, because

(50:48):
if we're giving anything short of seven, the Giants would
be a strong play for me. As they are because
it's sitting at six in circles, but even at like
five and a half, I would have loved the Giants.
And people are going to hear that and say, what
the hell are you talking about? You want more points
for the underdog because they're going to cover more often. Yes,
mathematically that is true. That's how distributions work. But we're

(51:09):
playing in a contest. These changes off the key numbers
can create pretty seismic shifts and pick popularity in the contest,
and enough shift that it actually does create ev opportunity
on the side that is losing the closing line value,
which is the case here with the Giants, off of
where it was last week, two weeks ago, whatever. But

(51:30):
that's where I am on this game. I don't always
take these spots. This one really just comes down to
team evaluations. I love the Giants this year against the Market.
I am down on the Commanders. I think these two
teams are headed in opposite directions, opposite regression paths. I
talked about the Giants all off season as a sneaky
defensive monster because of what they've done with this defensive line.

(51:51):
These guys had game wreckers up front. They can completely
alter offensive game plans. That's probably their only strength. But
we're tap talking about the part of football that can
swing possessions, create turnovers, add variance to the game, and
I think the Giants are going to be able to
do that here against a team that had all the
variants in their favor last year. The Commanders just looking

(52:16):
at what they accomplished last year in high leverage. They
ranked first in the NFC in red zone percentage on
the road, they had the highest fourth down conversion rate
in NFL history, twenty for twenty three on fourth down,
and they went, yeah, they went forward a lot. That's
not sustainable. And you can say what you want about
Jaden Daniels taking the next step. He's great, he might

(52:36):
be better this year, but they can't possibly run that
back with the same efficiency in those spots. I think
the Commanders take a step back. I think it could
start here against a divisional foe, a team that was
terrible against the spread last year, that didn't win any
games last year. Nobody's giving credit to the Giants, and
this is again a rule of NFC East underdog. So

(52:59):
I love the Giants in.

Speaker 1 (52:59):
This Giants were also in Donnie's top five. They were
in the middle of most card the first game that
did not receive confidence points. I'm the lowest on the
Giants in this spot. I do wish we were getting
a half point more. We're just putting a lot of
faith into Russell Wilson on the road. But I do

(53:26):
understand a lot of the Commander's points. Chief amongst them,
we want to talk progression is the quarterback itself.

Speaker 5 (53:31):
Right.

Speaker 1 (53:32):
We saw c. J. Stroud have an immaculate rookie campaign
and come splattering back to Earth in his sophomore season,
and it's not like Jaden Daniels is immune to that
as well. So yeah, tweak one divisional game, a lot
of points. I'm very much on board with this Giants pick.

(53:54):
All right, let's go to a third consensive pick and
the first collective selection of the season. The collective chooses

(54:16):
the Atlanta Falcons. Cigar, I am a bit worried about
this one. This is another one of those where, if
you asked me a couple of weeks ago, home dog
divisional spot, Michael Pennock's excitement, love the weapons on Atlanta,
love the additions they made up front on defense, This

(54:38):
would have been an absolute slam dunk, no brainer. Put
it near the top of my card. But I am very,
very worried about this Jack Nelson injury. Guys, you know
it's tough to enter into Week one without your tackle.
Of course, Tampa Bay going through the same pain point
with Tristan Wurf's on their book, but We could just

(55:04):
be wrong about the Bucks, right, everyone's screaming aggression candidate
lost Liam Cohen. They might not be the same. We
could just be wrong. But maybe I'm just worrying too much.
Division spot home Dog. Everyone just penciling in the Bucks
as division winners. Brett talk me off the Ledge, talk

(55:25):
me off of being worried about the elent of Falcons.

Speaker 4 (55:29):
Because this is wrong team favored. I probably would have
made this a pick or Falcons minus one. But yeah,
like you said, key injuries to the Bucks as well,
Worfs out for a few games. Favea is not practicing. Uh,
doesn't look like he's running towards playing, obviously, Chris Godwin
is out. I heard Kay Adams say this morning that
Tampa Bay is going to the super Bowl. There are
a lot of people high on this team. Where is

(55:51):
this coming from?

Speaker 2 (55:53):
Are people.

Speaker 1 (55:57):
To pickfield to five?

Speaker 4 (56:00):
They barely got into the playoffs. They needed a lot
of balances to go their way to get into the
playoffs last year, and like Washington they were. They ran
way above expectation in a lot of luck factors. I mean,
what was the one I saw? They were number one
in field goal percentage on the year, and their opponents

(56:21):
I think were dead last opposite. There was another one
too for the Falcons. Falcon's opponents went eleven for eleven
from fifty plus yards last year. So like on the
other end, historic bad luck for Atlanta last year. Yes,
a lot of the games are in domes, but like,
these numbers are absurd. I think this is just two
teams colliding, much like the Giants and the and the
Commanders again. So I just I think this is a

(56:44):
really I think this is a bad line. I think
this should be Falcons favored.

Speaker 1 (56:49):
That's steamy. Well what about you? You made a lot
of faces doing that.

Speaker 2 (56:54):
I just think it's the fact that Brett is talking
about kickers is just warm set of coldest cockles in mine.
But like we're talking.

Speaker 4 (57:00):
About plays that put points on the board, Like you're
making eleven of eleven from fifty plus. How are you
supposed to win games when teams are doing that against you?

Speaker 1 (57:08):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (57:09):
And then obviously, like young Waiku had a pretty bad
year last year, right, so maybe he bounces back. I
think part of it he was playing hurt, I believe,
So that's definitely within reason. And you know, I just
think this Tampa Bay offense is ready for some serious,

(57:29):
serious regression. I turned on another podcast today that was
going through Tampa Bay and guess what, guys. They told
me something called Sorry, I need to double check his name.
Josh Grizard is gonna be a great offensive coordinator. I've
never seen this guy's name in my life, dude, and

(57:52):
he just has to come out and call a pro
football game. And I'm just supposed to think this team
isn't going to miss a beat, Like, I don't know
what this offense is going to look like. Man, they
had guys snap get head coaching opportunities the last two years.
What are the chances that Todd Bowles is just an
absolute genius and knows how to hire every offensive coordinator?

(58:15):
I mean, I don't know, Like, I've never seen this
guy's name before, so I'm just supposed to expect him
to just come out and crush it. And this defense
is it's thin, it's old. I had this as a
pick too. I just don't These weapons are not inspiring
to me, if I'm being honest, Without a healthy Chris Godwin,

(58:36):
like I know everyone in the world thinks. And Mecca
Abuka is going to be a fantasy superstar. Guys. I
watched him at Ohio State, and I never thought he
was very good, So I don't know where that's coming from.
I thought he was just like, Okay, I'm stunned that
he ended up being a first round pick based on
everything I saw. Like, I just I don't know, man.

(58:57):
I think Tampa Bay is quite over rated, especially without
Tristan Wurfs, And uh yeah, we're gonna have to see
the Falcons do some good work with these young players
they have on defense. So it's a bit of a
roll of the dice in that sense. But uh yeah,
I think Baker Mayfield highly likely to regress in this

(59:18):
offense in general, highly likely to regress.

Speaker 1 (59:21):
Someone needs to contact Pablo Torre because I just looked
up something Josh Grizzard, and on his wiki it said
he played safety at Yale in two thousand and eight.
That's when he granted, that's when he started. So of
course my first inclination was to look up Josh Grizzard's
rivals profile and ask MO how many stars something Grizzard was.

(59:44):
He has some now on three unfortunately links they're all broken.
Some fishy going on here with Josh Grizzard and his
on three profile, Pablo Toy that's the next big story
that you can break. Yeah, you guys have convinced me.
I just fear that I'm way too pennis filled, because

(01:00:06):
what really gets me excited? Going full circle back to
talking about cam Ward, everybody pointed towards that Washington Huskies
offense and the draft capital that the receivers got. What
if Taylor Pole sucks? Right? What if McMillan, who was
fine last year, is just fine? Right?

Speaker 2 (01:00:27):
Like?

Speaker 1 (01:00:27):
What if the guys he was passing to weren't actually
the caliber with which they got drafted at What if
Michael Pennix was just him and now he has Drake London,
Kyle Pitts and Jean Robinson And that could be some
really exciting stuff down in Atlanta. All right? So the

(01:00:48):
card Falcons, Jets, Bengals, Cardinals, Giants, three games, three consensus games?
Who can buzz through these that did not make the card,
but all four of us are on the same side.
Raiders at Patriots, we were all taking the two and
a half points with the traveling loss Vegas Raiders DP,

(01:01:09):
you don't have the highest opinion on this game. In fact,
you have the lowest. But it is two games that
affect you. One's in your backyard, one is your former swoon.
So tell us why you ultimately clicked Vegas here. No,
I got nothing. I mean, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:01:27):
It feels like a lot to lay two and a
half with the unknown that is New England. Like, Yeah,
I think they're going to be better on the offensive line.
I think Drake May looks decent enough that I would
expect him to, you know, take another step forward. I
like the fact that Mike Rabel is in there because

(01:01:49):
I mean I just think that he's an adult in
the room when they had absolute clown show in you know,
the coaching seats last season, so I think there has
to be some in provement there. And I want to
be bullish on them, you know, but I know you
guys aren't as bullish as I am. So that's one
thing that kind of gives me pause, that makes me
question my thoughts here. I also can say a lot

(01:02:11):
of those same things on the other side of the ball.
I mean, Pete Carroll can say what you want about him,
but I think he's way more of an adult in
the room than they've had before. I think they certainly
got an upgrade at the quarterback position. I do think
Max Crosby can just be a one man wrecking crew
on defense if this offensive line ultimately isn't up to par.

(01:02:31):
So I have my worries, and I just think that
this line is asking a little bit too much right now,
Like I feel like it should probably be a one
and a half. And you know, I don't know, it
just feels rich, and I feel like some of that
is here in Vegas. There is a lot of talk
about the Raiders, and it's a lot of positive stuff, yes, But.

Speaker 1 (01:02:50):
Elsewhere, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:02:51):
I don't necessarily hear elsewhere, but what I do here
elsewhere as I hear everyone all talking about the freaking Patriots.
That's all I hear and like, so as much as
I want to be bullish on them, anytime I feel
like I'm going with the crowd, I do get generally
kind of worried and maybe I question myself. So you know,
I said, listen, this is a really tough spot for
New England to open up the season here. I mean,
this Raiders team is I think they're going to be

(01:03:14):
I'll say frisky in a lot of spots, Like, I
don't think they're going to necessarily blow doors. I have
no idea if they're going to make the playoffs or not,
but I think they're going to surprise a lot of
teams and a lot of people ultimately who are like, oh,
the Raiders just one Like I mean, yeah, the Raiders
can probably get frisky in a lot of spots here.

Speaker 1 (01:03:31):
So I don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:03:32):
This is a really tough test for the Patriots coming
out of the gate, and like we've been saying, with
a lot of these different spots, I kind of need
to see it before I'm willing to like just be like, yeah,
you know, maybe me coming into the season and my
thoughts on like the offensive line improving and all this
sort of stuff is is right, But I think I'm
not willing to just blindly dive in yet. So I

(01:03:52):
got to see some of it, and I think the
Raiders are set up pretty nicely here.

Speaker 1 (01:03:55):
One of the things affecting this game is some of
these injuries to start the scene, and I think people
just don't focus on them right because they're in preseason
mode and we've been talking about these teams at such
a high level for so long. Christian Zals hasn't practiced
since July. He is not playing in this game, and
he is probably the most important player on this defense

(01:04:18):
because he allows them to do things in coverage where
probably what do you mean, oh, the most important. I
think you can make a case. I think you can
make a case for Barmore when Barmour is at full strength.
The types of things that you can create creating internal
pressure like Barmore are crazy. But who knows, with him

(01:04:38):
coming off of his blood clots right last year. Like,
I think, there's just a lot of questions not answered
yet about this Patriots team. The same can obviously be
said about the Raiders, a team with a new coach
and a new quarterback. But yeah, I think fifty six
percent of the handle on the Patriots, all the love
this nine and a half win total, Well, I'm ready

(01:05:01):
for them to come crashing down on Earth. And I
really like the Raiders. In the spot, it was hard
for me to select between the Jets or the Raiders
as to who to put at the top of my card.
Chiefs Chargers. Let's go down to sal Paulo. Let's put
the most famous player in the NFL on a field
that took the MCL of a quarterback last year. That

(01:05:22):
seems like a fantastic idea. Roger Goodell, MO, I want
to get your opinion on this game. We're all on
the Kansas City Chiefs, and you've got one of the
highest opinions with Kansas City in your top five.

Speaker 2 (01:05:37):
Yeah, I feel like this should maybe be three and
a half. I mean, if the Chiefs are the Super
Bowl contender that I think they are and the market
thinks they are, are they not at least a field
goal better then a very as Brett I think Brett
used the greatest word to describe this is just a
mid team. Dude. The Chargers are very mid. Yes, they
continue to give the Chiefs problems. I just feel like

(01:05:58):
if I myself think that I'm not being rational and
like looking at these rosters and just understanding that this
Chargers team is probably mediocre. I mean, Keenan Allen is
now penciled into the starting lineup. I mean that's not great.
I don't think when Chicago, a team absolutely starved for offense,

(01:06:21):
did not care to bring him back to the team.
And then this defense that I just think isn't great,
especially upfront. I mean you don't pressure Mahomes, you let
Andy Reid mix in the run effectively. I don't really
know how you're going to stop this Chiefs offense. I
think Isaiah Pacheco is probably going to do some damage

(01:06:42):
in this game. I think teams are going to be
able to pound the rock on this Chargers team.

Speaker 1 (01:06:45):
Man.

Speaker 2 (01:06:46):
I know that that's like anti everything that Jim Harbaugh
lives for and wakes up for every morning of his life.
But I just don't see the personnel without Poona Ford
and then just yeah, just a very very mediocre front seven.
I just think the Chiefs are a cut above this

(01:07:07):
team and should probably be at least minus three and
a half here. So I did take the Chiefs. That
being said, it's hard to have a lot of confidence
in a game that is being played in a foreign country.

Speaker 1 (01:07:18):
I think that's the perfect cap from the collective. Will
round it out with Niners at Hawks. We are all
on the home dog. You we're all backing Sam Darnold
against Kyle Shanahan. But we've talked about this since the preseason, Brett,
what is this Niners offense going to look like? Juwan
Jennings suddenly healthy? Suddenly the cav is feeling great now

(01:07:42):
that he has incentives added to his contracts. But what
is this Niners offense going to look like? Brett against
a Seahawks defense? Second year with McDaniel, Right, McDaniel, I
was confused to see singular and Miami is plural.

Speaker 2 (01:08:02):
Nick donald McDonald.

Speaker 1 (01:08:06):
There, he is the former Ravens defense for coordinator now
Seahawks head coach. The Seahawks efense that looks great on
paper and looks like it could be a rude awakening
for this Niners offense. Then again, Brett, we just don't
know what we're going to get out of these guys.

Speaker 4 (01:08:21):
Yeah, I mean Jenny's comings back that matters. I don't
think he's a guy who needs to be playing the
entire preseason for him to get back into a rhythm
with with brock party, they looked great together last year.
That's kind of where I landed on this is like
I would have loved, Honestly, I would have loved the
Seahawks if that if Jennings wasn't playing, because then it's
like who's up next, who are they throwing the ball to?

(01:08:45):
Who's in this offense? I thought this line was pretty fair,
but I ended up kind of sticking with my priors
and taking Seattle.

Speaker 1 (01:08:53):
Nobody had this higher than an eight out of fifteen,
so we all had it, but nobody had the confidence
to even put it at the bottom of their card. Okay,
So that is the week one slate out of the way,
and just because it's last doesn't mean it's not important.
It might be the most important aspect, and that is survivor.

(01:09:17):
So much money up for grabs, so much strategy to
be had the folks that are out there. The Circus
Survivor contest is especially challenging because, in addition to the
eighteen weeks of which you need to select a winner
ties get you eliminated, there are two island slates with
Thanksgiving and Christmas, where you have to select a game

(01:09:41):
on those small slates. So one of the challenges is
who do you save? Do you save them all? There
are going to be very definitive bottleneck situations those weeks
where people are saving the same team, and it might
give you some phenomenal leverage opportunities deeper to the season,
but you have to remember all those teams that are

(01:10:02):
playing on those island slates. When you address the early weeks.
The projected most popular picks this week are going to
be looks like the Well, it depends if people who
submitted early and got onto it. I could see this
Eagles being a little bit popular, but how popular is

(01:10:26):
it going to be? I don't know. The other most
popular one is for sure going to be the Denver
Broncos eight and a half point favorites at home against
the Tennessee Titans. And then there are a couple The
aforementioned Cardinals are in there, but again I think people
might be a little bit worried about backing a road

(01:10:47):
team in that spot. And then who would be the
next most popular I guess it would be those Washington
Commanders minus six at home against the Giants.

Speaker 4 (01:10:58):
So probably the Bengals after that.

Speaker 1 (01:11:02):
Okay, so yeah, that I'll start things off. I'm and
these are leans because I think talking out Survivor is
a lot more important than talking about the card for
strategy purposes. I am currently leaning the Cincinnati Bengals because
I think amongst the favorites this week, they will have
the lowest share of popularity, and the only spot that

(01:11:27):
I like for them remaining on the season is home Jets,
which is going to be massively popular that week. So
I'm pretty happy just getting the Bengals out of the
way here, and that's kind of where I'm leaning, Brent.
What about you?

Speaker 4 (01:11:44):
Yeah, just looking at the Bengals that week eight against
the Jets, they will be popular. Yeah, because the other
the other big favorites that we are going to be Philly, Baltimore, Buffalo,
and people are gonna want to save Buffalo and Philly
and Baltimore use them. Yeah, yeah, yeah, so I could see. Yeah,

(01:12:07):
I think you're right. I think Cincinnati would be super popular.
You're asking what what I'm looking at this week? I
don't mind flipping a coin in Week one. There's just
so much unpredictability. And I will say.

Speaker 1 (01:12:27):
To cut you off, I have been playing around with
our friends over at Pool Genius and I put in
the circuit inputs. They told me to click the Jacks.

Speaker 4 (01:12:38):
That's who I have.

Speaker 1 (01:12:40):
Okay.

Speaker 3 (01:12:41):
I thought I thought I was gonna come in here
and talk crazy about the Jaguars, but I also wanted
to pick the Jaguars. Well, if you're going to pick
the Jaguars, this is the week because there's nothing else. Really,
they don't play on they don't play on the holiday islands,
and if you I was also leaning Cincy, but there
is a case that you can save them for Thanksgiving,

(01:13:03):
just to have all those teams available, right, So I
was also thinking Jacksonville. The other part of it is
gonna come in here and tell you guys how crazy
I was and how much I want to punt off
week one. Well, you guys take the safe plays, and
I guess, okay.

Speaker 4 (01:13:18):
But I don't know that there are any safe plays.
And that's the thing about Denver in Arizona. I mean,
I've been talking about Denver and Arizona are but.

Speaker 2 (01:13:29):
They are safe with a rookie quarterback, though, Like, what
if he's just Jaden Daniels. I mean, I know that
he got his ass kicked week one, but what if
he's just weak ten James.

Speaker 1 (01:13:38):
That's the exactly that's the exact point is that, like
even an amazing quarterback, and Jalen Daniel, Jaden Daniels is amazing.
He got his ass kicked week one on the road
last year. But where are you at, Bunny?

Speaker 2 (01:13:53):
You guys have given me more confidence in my play.
I was so scared to take the Cardinals, but now
I'm I thought you're gonna that we're ready to fire
off that attack. No, definitely not. But I I feel
like the Cardinals are the play I don't love them,
and uh, basically the rest of the year. And for

(01:14:17):
the other top teams, like you guys said, some of
them are, I mean maybe for people who don't know
the holiday slates, you have to pick a team on
Thanksgiving and Christmas, and like the Eagles play the Thanksgiving
slate because they're the Black Friday game. Uh, the Commanders
play the Cowboys on Christmas.

Speaker 1 (01:14:39):
They are at home.

Speaker 2 (01:14:40):
They are probably going to be fairly significant favorites in
that game. The other Christmas games are Lions at Vikings
and Broncos at Chiefs, which I don't think a lot
of people are going to be excited to play. Basically,
like I told you guys in the chat, I want
to have both Washington and Dallas available so that if
everyone is saved Washington, then I can pick Dallas and

(01:15:01):
if they didn't save Washington, then I can pick Washington.
So if people don't understand that and think I'm crazy,
maybe I am. But that's a large game theory play
that you can look up.

Speaker 1 (01:15:13):
Arizona has I mean, next week could be a decent
spot for Arizona. I mean, if Arizona is as good
as we think they are and the Carolina defense is
as bad as we think it is, next week might
be a fine spot for Arizona at home against the Panthers.

Speaker 4 (01:15:29):
And Week five as well, they're at home against Tennessee.

Speaker 1 (01:15:32):
Yeah, but that could be the spot. Week five could
be the spot where oops, Cameron Ward is actually excellent
and the Red comes out and he wins a road game.
So that's one of the reasons why I mean, I'd
rather gamble on if you're going to go to Arizona,
I'd rather gamble on them in week one still with
some kind of unknown factor they're on the road, do
you have that element versus allowing them to Let's say

(01:15:55):
they do go out there and they blow doors against
the Saints, then everyone's going to pick them next week
like it's valid, you know, Like, so there's that.

Speaker 3 (01:16:03):
I will also say that I just wanted to add
something on Cincy because they do play that Thanksgiving Black
Friday week. But my argument, because they were one of
my I had I was thinking between Arizona, Cincy and Jacksonville,
and my argument for even though I do want to
keep all the teams for those holiday slates, since he

(01:16:23):
has Baltimore on the road, which is likely not going
to ever be picked unless like Lamar is hurt. But
then in that case, everyone's gonna pick Cincy anyway. So
it's like, either way it kind of doesn't matter to.

Speaker 2 (01:16:35):
Burn them or they won't. They won't have Cincy, only
you will.

Speaker 3 (01:16:38):
I mean, I don't know. Sometimes these people like to
keep all those teams, you know. I mean, I think
that's becoming kind of more and more of a thing
as this contest kind of in a way.

Speaker 1 (01:16:48):
Little Cincinnati. It's literally going to come down to week eight, right, Like,
if all those other teams are not available or they're
being saved Cincinnati week eight home jets, they could be
like upwards to fifty percent of the test, right, And
that's going to be the inflection point as to do
you pick them then or do you keep saving them
for the island slight. Okay, So for the purpose of

(01:17:09):
the podcast, these things can change. They may change at
Gridiron Gamble across. So wait, Rich, who are you thinking
Cincinnati Bengals is currently my selection? Brett Man.

Speaker 3 (01:17:21):
If we're on Arizona, Cincy, and Jacksonville. I mean, I
hope it fucking burns down week one, because that'll be
glorious for us.

Speaker 4 (01:17:29):
This is what we tried to do last year with Dallas,
and it all felt like it worked out perfectly, except
Dallas got annihilated.

Speaker 1 (01:17:37):
It all worked out, except the team that we selected
got their ask. We made a run, yeah, with so
much carnage early on, and we sat here and told you, guys,
do not click the Cincinnati Bengals. Last year against the Patriots.
We told you, guys, I can't say the same ferocity

(01:17:58):
this year about the Bronx. I think they're prosna kick
the crap out of the Titans, and I don't think
they're gonna have as large a share because well, I
guess in circa they might because of Washington. Yeah, because
of Washington being a future Island game, and because I

(01:18:20):
don't know how many people click the Eagles. So all right,
for the pod, I've got the Bengals, Brett has probably, Jags.

Speaker 2 (01:18:31):
Moe has no probably, I'm feeling good now, Cardinals, and
Donnie also.

Speaker 1 (01:18:39):
Has leaning Jags. Might flip a coin between Cardinals and Jacks.

Speaker 4 (01:18:46):
I'm not taking Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (01:18:47):
Yeah, great Week one, baby, Donnie. How much how much
of a relief was it when the word Jaguars came
out of our mouths?

Speaker 3 (01:19:00):
I mean, I was just gonna say, like, I feel
like I'm ready to punt week one, but I have
like one path lined up that's like fucking banana landa
over here.

Speaker 4 (01:19:08):
I mean, you got to use twenty teams and the
Jags are like fringy top twenty teams and you're not
going to use them again, so like just get them
out of the way and pra the gods.

Speaker 1 (01:19:16):
This is this is this is the rule of every
week counts. Right at some point during this you're gonna
have to take a three and a half three point
favorite many times. Actually, during a twenty week you're gonna
be And even if you guys were let's i mean,
let's say like you guys are on I mean, I
know this would never happen, of course, but let's say
you guys are on Broncos and you're like telling me

(01:19:37):
that I'm crazy for being on the Jags.

Speaker 3 (01:19:38):
I'd be like, well, let's have our one crazy punt
entry and I'll happily take the bullet for that, Like
not a big deal. You know, let's let's let's do that. Like,
I think it's good to have. I think it's good
how we do it where we have multiple entries and
we can kind of have different paths. I mean sometimes
we might converge, yes, but I think it's good to
differentiate a little bit if you can't afford to do so.

Speaker 1 (01:19:59):
So Yeah, and on the Broncos too, if a lot
of people do select them. This week, they have Home Giants,
Home Cowboys, Home Raiders like they're going to be Many's
first half of their schedule is so nice. Many is juicy.
Many spots down the line to take them at much

(01:20:19):
lower ownership. So for those of you screaming into your device,
just take the Broncos. There's an added element of not
only fading the public, but also having better opportunities down
the road. Follow these guys on Twitter at Brett Colston,
cool Son, at Donnie Underscore Peters and at myself No
at Monora and UWWA r H. Week one that's the

(01:20:41):
last time I can say it, the last time I
can say it. Week one. Week one is here. It's
twenty one twenty. At halftime, I have Dallas Cowboys plus
eight and a half and money bet line in my account.
Sweating this out hope, hopefully this comes home. Best of
luck in your betting ventures. See you guys next week. Yees,