2025 Week 10: Lone Wolf Drama

We have a spicy Lone Wolf segment where one game is the top pick for three members of The Collective.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Come, Welcome back to great I Camble, the only podcast
to put its money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
Rich Ryan, and I'm joined by two members of the Collective,
Donnie DP Peters and the resident moves himself Mo Nowara.
If you're watching this on YouTube, please like the video

(00:32):
and subscribe to the channel listeners. Rate rever on your
podcatcher of choice. Five stars only like a man not
playing tonight and one of the reasons why likely Mo
and I are on deradus pat Sir Tan two five stars,
af Raiders up seven nil. As we record, I parlayed

(00:55):
the plus nine with the under forty two and a
half plus two fifties. Will be sweating that out through
this contest. Brett not with us being a good son
helping his mother move to her snowbird residence down in Florida.
So good Onya Brett. We've got his picks, he said.

(01:16):
There will be tinkering, however, an annoying, extremely annoying two
and three for the Collective. Last week, our first losing
week in six weeks. Something, brock Bowers. That's what the
Jags went into that game thinking they did not know
that one of the greatest tighten talents of all time

(01:38):
was playing on the other side of the ball and
in every high leveraged spot Mow. For some reason, that
guy was just scampering uncovered in the second there.

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Yeah, that was an infuriating sweat. I mean, I don't
know who their advanced scouts are, but maybe they need
some new ones. It would have helped if somebody knew
that eighty nine was worth covering on the other team.
I think you know, every dipshit on their couch in

(02:10):
America knew that covering Bauer should be the priority. But
apparently the Jaguar staff didn't know that, so that was interesting.

Speaker 1 (02:19):
As soon as ot starts, MO nailed it. He said,
this is ending thirty to twenty nine without a doubt,
and alas it did. Super annoying week for me. I
go four and one in my top five, putting my
only loser on the card. I knew, I knew I
should have just went all in on Voodoo. I saw
that game coming from a country mile away, and I

(02:42):
just I'm so mad at myself for just not putting
not putting the Voodoo on the card. But we turned
the page two week number ten and we've got two
split games starting with a banger Eagles at Packers cockr.
These buttons are really gonna make me lose my mind
one of these days. Come on. The Packers are two

(03:10):
and a half point favorites in the contest, and it's
no surprise that the person with the highest opinion is Brett,
who's not here. He has his green Bay Packers in
his top five. But Mo, you will pick up the
mantle because you too put an X next to Green
Bay and you've got it in the middle of your selections.

Speaker 3 (03:29):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (03:29):
I kind of wanted to love the Packers here just
because I've done the same thing every time the Eagles
have played a good team, I've taken the other side,
and I'm one and two I think, even though I
think they were outplayed in all three games. So I
just keep doing that and I'm doing it again here.

(03:52):
But I will say some concerns for me, mainly Tucker Craft.
That guy is difference maker, so I don't know what
sort of effect that's going to have on Green Bay's offense.
I'm tempted to buy them here off a game where
they move the ball up and down the field like usual.

(04:16):
I think the athletic football Show put it nicely with
this team. They said, every time you look up, the
Packers are on the opposing thirty five, But then you
get to the end of the game and they don't
win convincingly, And that's definitely what's going on. So you
have two very good teams, but one of them I
think is likely overvalued. One of them is likely undervalued.

(04:37):
So I'm suspecting the Packers are the side. But I
am worried about Tucker Craft because he was such a
difference maker on a team that doesn't have that many
difference makers. I mean, the Packers have a lot of
good players. I don't know how many great players they have.
I think Tucker Craft might be a great player.

Speaker 1 (04:55):
There's a reason they made him a captain. There's a
reason they went into the draft and identified somebody like
Matthew Golden and said, we have a lot of good
pass catchers, but we need a guy that on third
and gotta have it. We have somebody who can go
out there and make a play, and to date that's
been Tucker Craft, and now he's out for the season
with that ACL injury. Matthew Golden, the guy that they

(05:15):
tried to get hasn't been him, and now he's injured
as well with a shoulder. So I think this line
is fair ultimately, and because of the ambiguity post Tucker Craft,
I put an X next to the Eagles. Donni, you're
in the same boat as me. You have Philadelphia, but
you don't have them high. But you've been pretty generally

(05:36):
the highest on Philadelphia amongst the collectives.

Speaker 4 (05:39):
Yeah, I mean, I feel like every single week I've
been pretty high on the Eagles. Like you said, I mean,
I just think they're very, very, very solid all around.
I'm not going to say they're the best team in
the league. I don't believe that, but I just think
that every single week they are for sure top five,
and they're just always top five. That consistency there where
I ranked is just always there. I wouldn't mind avoiding

(06:04):
this game altogether, just because I feel like it's one
of those games Monday night, everyone's gonna want to have
an opinion on that sort of thing. Now that said,
I think the Tucker Craft thing is really freaking big.
Couple that with the fact that every time I watch
the Packers, I don't know, I feel like they don't
show up or don't know what they're doing for like
one to two quarters. They just like mess around too much.

(06:25):
Like I will, like, can you gut? We think we
all think you're good, and we I think we know
that you're good as well. But the fact that you
just constantly mess around and maybe you can get by
with some of that against some worst teams, yes, but
like a team like the Eagles, like I don't know,
I just feel like that that can come home to
bite you. So that's where I'm at with this one.
If I have to pick a side, and you know,

(06:47):
like like you guys are pointing out, I mean, I
think the Tucker Craft thing, he's the guy for them
when you need to have it. He They're gonna go
to Tucker Craft and he's gonna do his thing. And
without him, until they can show me what it's gonna
be like without him, I have to just take the
other here.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
This is a Monday night game, so we only have
one day's injury report put as good as possible for Philadelphia,
as both AJ Brown and Saquon Barkley were full participants,
as was Nolan Smith, who is coming off of ir
with that triceps injury. We move to the midway where

(07:21):
the Bears are four and a half point favorites against
the Giants, and I've got the highest opinion on this game.
I went into this exercise thinking that it would be
challenging to lay this number with a Chicago team that
has been generally uninspiring. But then I just looked at

(07:41):
this matchup of how poor the Giants have been defending
the run, which makes sense. They have very good pass rushers,
but their linebacker corps leaves a lot to be desired.
And one way that you can neutralize this pass rush
is by running at them. Dexter Lawrence looks like a
guy who's just absolutely capitol Q word quitting out there.

(08:03):
And now you've got Ben Johnson coming in, who, with
a healthy DeAndre Swift, will have multiple backs to deploy
of something. Kyle Manungai fighting scarlet Knights, is doing what
he did last week against Cincinnati, and I think this
is rule of Wisconsin, though. I think this is rule

(08:24):
of You can run up the score by half back
diving against this Giants team. So I understand that Jackson
Dart might be a backdoor king. He's been making great
plays scrambling on the ground. I think the Giants are
a very high variance team, so I don't have a
massive opinion on this game. I think the range of
outcomes is pretty wide. But if you're going to force

(08:47):
me to make a selection in this game, I am
fairly comfortable laying it with Chicago because I just think
that they can dominate offensively, especially on the ground. DP
You've got them very low, but you have the opinion
on Big Blue, this feels like a spot.

Speaker 4 (09:04):
I mean, the Bears played the Bengals last week, who
have the worst defense in the league by a million miles,
So like I feel like part of what I'm doing
here is like I just got to sell that offensive
performance here, because again it was against Cincinnati.

Speaker 1 (09:18):
It was so bad it was unbelievable.

Speaker 4 (09:20):
Now, as you pointed out, Rich, I do worry about
this Giants rush defense, and the Bears, if they just
want to literally just pound the rock all day, can
probably get after it. Now, whoever this guy flat is
for the Giants has been locking people down pretty nicely.
So if he's able to lock down Roma Dunza take

(09:42):
away that passing option, which is the best passing option
for the Bears, then in my mind, they should be
able to dedicate more resources towards stopping the run. Now
does that help them? I mean hopefully, because I'm picking them,
But like so that's how it's playing out in my mind.
Will it work out that way?

Speaker 1 (09:57):
Who the heck knows.

Speaker 4 (09:57):
That's why I'm keeping it low. This is, like you said,
very high variance here. It can really go either way.

Speaker 1 (10:03):
Like I don't.

Speaker 4 (10:03):
I wouldn't call it crazy. If the Giants win, I
wouldn't call it crazy. If the Bears blow him up
by twenty I can kind of see just anything happening here.
But yeah, that's where I'm at.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
The Bears could also be benefiting from rule of injury
with Cole Comet going down and then forced to get
more looks to Colston Loveland because Loveland just stepped up
last week and looked like the guy, especially on that
game winning touchdown. All right, that's the split game segments.
Let's get to some lone Wolves. Donnie has a trio

(10:44):
of lone wolves, and perhaps the spiciest game on the
slate for the collective is going to be this one.

Speaker 2 (10:51):
The Bills make me wanna.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
The Bills travel will get most face. The Bills travel
to Miami to take on the greatest football team, the
greatest team, and the Bills are nine and a half
point favorites coming off of a victory in the four
twenty five window. Whole world watching them beat the Chefs,

(11:15):
and now they are massive favorites against their division foes.
And DP loves Loves loves wink wink wink to Buffalo Bills.

Speaker 4 (11:26):
Yeah, I mean, I knew you guys would be on
the other side here. I mean, come on, this is
par for the course. I'm the idiot on this side
and you guys are all on the other side. I mean,
just just chalk it up. This was grid airon Gamble
to the freaking tea. That's just how it is. Bills
coming off back to back losses before they went into
that Week seven by, I feel like they had a
bit of a come to Jesus moment during that Week
seven by. I don't know, something happened. They brought in

(11:48):
the shaman, who that the hypnotists, I don't know, but
they are now a team on a mission. They can't
slow down no way because of what's happening in the AFC,
what's happening in the division more or so, now they
got to go up against a divisional opponent in Miami.

Speaker 1 (12:04):
Who listen.

Speaker 4 (12:05):
I know they won that game a couple of weeks ago,
but I think Miami was a little bit frisky that
Buffalo is gonna be like, listen, we gotta make a
stame here.

Speaker 1 (12:13):
Like this is like, let's go all right.

Speaker 4 (12:16):
The Dolphins do not have a good pass rush. I
cannot imagine that's gonna be any way, shape or form
good against somebody like Josh Allen. And even when you
do have a pass rush, he's so good with his
legs he can just get out of it all the time.
They trade Jalen Phillips, which I mean, yeah, who hasn't
been performing that well. But like, I mean, are they
gonna be any better without him? I don't see. So

(12:36):
the offensive line for Buffalo has been very good. They
can just run the ball with James Cook here, can
they not? I mean, why can't they just run, run,
run non stop against this horrible Miami run defense. I mean, like,
the only thing I can think of that you can
kind of come at me here is like this is
just a spot. The Bills off this win last week.
They've been flying high, and then the fact that you

(12:56):
want to argue, Okay, maybe it's a little bit of
a look ahead too, because they got Tampa next week.
They're one of the best teams in the league, right
maybe they're looking to head there again. I can't get
past the fact that they came out of that bye week.
They look like they are a team on a mission
and they have to stay paced with all these other teams.
I feel like they're just gonna put their foot down,
pedals to the freaking floor, and do the damn thing

(13:18):
every single week. And Miami sucks.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
Well, not only do mo and I have the Dolphins.
Not only do MO and I have the Dolphins in
our top five, Moeni both put the Dolphins at the
very tip top of our cards because, as you said
about the New York Football Giants, this is just the spot,
my guy. This is the Dolphins with extra rest, playing

(13:41):
a division opponents that they have a strong understanding of.
You've got some rule of not NBA injury, but NBA
departure with Jalen Phillips today beaking about getting traded from
the Dolphins is the greatest day of his life. Get
out of here, my guy, and you've got a Bills
team coming off of the biggest win they can have

(14:04):
all season. DVOA has them as of playing the second
easiest schedule in football so far. The middle of their
defense is an absolute sieve. And the one thing, just
like Ben Jonson, we know Mike McDaniel can do is
scheme up the run game. And Devon a Chan is
that guy. And you're talking about James Cook. James Cook
out there on a bomb ankle, didn't practice on a Wednesday,

(14:25):
did return in a limited fashion here on Thursday. But
I just don't think this is a game that the
Bills will feel like they need to win by margin,
Like you said, they got the Bucks next week. Coming
off of that Chiefs game, this just feels like the
spot where Miami has a backdoor opportunity and just keeps
this close and the Bills just escape Sunny Florida with

(14:48):
a dub and not a massive victory.

Speaker 2 (14:50):
MO Pylon, Yeah, I mean you've got a spot to
coming off a game where the Dolphins got fake blown
out by the Ravens. I mean that game was like
actually close on the field, but a bunch of stupid
shit happened to the Dolphins, not all of it predictive.
I mean, like we know two of throwing picks is predictive,

(15:12):
but he only threw one and they turned it over
twice on fumbles by pass catchers. I mean, this is
just like the most random thing possible, Like, yeah, down
to down, that was a close game, but you look
at the scoreboard and they lost by twenty two, and
that was not how that played out. Like this Dolphins

(15:33):
team can move the ball, they can pound the rock
against the Bills here, I think both teams, I think,
are going to be looking to run the ball, kind
of similar to how I saw that Carolina versus Green
Bay game playing out. I think both teams are going
to run the ball here again and shorten this game.
And Donnie is right about some things, but some of
the things are just like yeah, James Cook, that's not

(15:55):
the way you covered nine points most of the time though,
And then you know, yes, the Bills do need to win,
that is for sure if they want to be keeping
up in the divisional race. But still they're coming off
a massive win, probably feeling themselves here. They played their
best game of the season. It's a perfect time to

(16:15):
sell when they won't play better than that the rest
of the season. So it's just a great spot to take.
I cannot believe Miami is nine and a half dogs here.
This is a crazy number to me.

Speaker 1 (16:27):
We'll keep it in the AFC East for the home team,
as my fighting are two and a half point home
dogs hosting the Dog Pound the Cleveland Browns. DP is
laying the points with the Browns with the departures of

(16:48):
Sauce Gardner and Quinn Williams for Gang Grade.

Speaker 4 (16:52):
I mean, the Jets are a freaking disaster. I mean,
come on, we're not really picking them here. I mean,
let's get serious. And now they don't have Gardner and Williams,
I mean, get off here, Justin Fields under pressure against
this defense, I mean seriously, and like I saw something
today was like, oh, well, Garrett Wilson's back. Yeah, well,
how's Justin Fields going to get him the ball?

Speaker 3 (17:13):
When one?

Speaker 1 (17:13):
He's a disaster too.

Speaker 4 (17:14):
He now has to run from Miles Garrett and this
defensive line. Good luck with all of this. Okay, So
you know what I feel like, it's I feel like
this is an easy one for as Rich you always
say the fake sharps just say like no, this is
the perfect spot. The Browns suck. The Jets just traded everyone.
They're clearly tanking no where. This is the side we're
gonna be on. But I'm not falling for.

Speaker 1 (17:34):
That not capping for ad and I Mitchell Eh not
capping for that guy.

Speaker 4 (17:40):
Maybe maybe he'll drop the ball again running into the
end zone.

Speaker 1 (17:43):
Not capping for John Metsi the third. The Cavalry is
coming on offense. Maybe so I crashed out when these
when these trades happened in the grove, Chad mo was
is one hundred percent right. I've cover I've I knew
it was the right thing. I mean, these trades are outlandish.
I think the Sauce trade is closer to fair because

(18:05):
I truly think Sauce is an incredibly Elie player, and
he's on a great contract, like his extension doesn't kick
in for another two years, and by then, like once
other corners start getting paid, like that contract is just
gonna become value. So I think Sauce is a great player.
Wishing him the best. The Quinnin deals insane. I don't

(18:26):
understand what Jerry Jones and the Cowboys are doing, especially
like not only did they give us their twenty twenty
seven first, but it's the better of their and the
Packers first, which whatever it might be, like a small
percentage increase there, but it's worthwhile. And by doing that,
unlike the NBA, like the NBA has all these like

(18:49):
you can trade picks even though they have contingencies on them,
in the NFL that those picks are now frozen, like
they cannot even do anything with the other first round pick,
so they're just at the mercy of waiting until that
draft order is solidified for them to do anything. It's
just an insane trade for a player who is twenty
eight going on twenty nine at a position of not

(19:12):
the most value, whose pass russ skills have kind of
diminished a little bit, and just a no brainer for
the Jets to execute. And while you're right, we're losing
two very good players. We've been one and seven with them,
we're twenty seventh and past the EPA with them, So
how much worse could it really get? And now you've
got Dylan Gabriel on the road rule of NBA injury trade.

(19:36):
All these guys are gonna think that they have to
step up and play into their roles. Total of thirty eight,
which I think is actually kind of insanely high like,
why is why is this thirty five? I was always
going to love the dog in the spot. It just
so happens that the dog is now the Jets. It
used to be the Browns, and then people overreacted to

(19:56):
two trades of two positions that just can't amount to
this type of value. So, yes, I have the Jets,
Yes I have them in my top five. Mo anything, Dad.

Speaker 2 (20:06):
I couldn't muster one ounce of confidence in either one
of these teams in this spot, So I wish you
the best if you wager on the Jets.

Speaker 1 (20:14):
In real life. I've I tease them with the under
that's just the play for me. Jets up to eight
and a half under forty three and a half only
minus one fifteen to two because one of the sides
was just on the teaser, so didn't have to play
the pay the full one twenty to get that down.
Ravens at Vikings Cock The Ravens are road favorites in

(20:40):
this spot. DP, You've got this low, but be wary
because Mo has the Vikings in his top five.

Speaker 4 (20:47):
I mean it sounds like the trend. All my lone
Wolves are just in your guys' top five the whole
week I mean, whatever, let's go. I mean, this is
just I think, the first time this whole season, clean
injury report for the Ravens and then sell the Vikings
off last week.

Speaker 1 (21:05):
I mean, that's just it.

Speaker 4 (21:06):
And I kept it low, and you know, let's move on.

Speaker 1 (21:09):
Go ahead and pick up the shield for Minnesota.

Speaker 2 (21:12):
There was people on ostensibly sharp podcasts who actually spoke
the English words. I hope Carson Wentz is in so
I can bet the Vikings people were saying that before
JJ McCarthy returned from injury. I mean, you can't be

(21:33):
worse than Carson Wentz. I mean, I understand that JJ
McCarthy has not done much, but he can at least
scramble for some first downs and you know, has a
live arm. I mean, Carson Wentz is cooked. He is
a sack magnet and a mistake magnet. His career has

(21:54):
been over for years. Like, how could anyone say that
after they Carson Wentz play for half of a season.
I don't understand it. JJ McCarthy came back and the
Vikings looked competent, and I think that this Ravens team
everyone's buying back in. I don't know if I'm ready

(22:16):
to buy back in yet they struggled with Miami. Like
I said, so what if Lamar is not healthy too,
I'm concerned about that against this Vikings pass rush that
has a lot of exotic looks, will bring some pressure,
will challenge your playmakers to win. I don't know if

(22:39):
I have much confidence in this Ravens group to do that.
So yeah, I just it's I don't think this line
should be as high as it is now. Maybe Lamar
comes out and looks great and this is the old Ravens.
I don't know, it could happen. That's why, even though
I was tempted to put this as my play, I

(23:01):
did move it down a bit. I just there's a
lot of outcomes here that that would not surprise me.
Like if the Vikings just came out and won the game,
I would not be the least bit surprised. But if
the Ravens look great, yeah they could roll here. But
as a default, I'm gonna think that the Vikings at
home against a quarterback who might not be one hundred

(23:25):
percent is probably the play.

Speaker 1 (23:28):
Such a wide range of outcomes, both quarterbacks driving most
of that. You look at the box. JJ was pretty
ugly last week. But he's got that dog at him.
You know, he's just he's out there, he's got the moxie,
he's making plays. And if he's any reasonable facsimile of
what we saw last week, then I think three and

(23:51):
a half four is pretty dumb and this should be
closer to pick because I'm not ready to buy all
the way back in on this Raven's defense just because
all the players are back. Like they were performing at
a very low level when they were all healthy, then
they were like at an atrocious level when they all

(24:11):
got hurt. So I'm not ready to just upgrade this
Ravens defense back to good. And if the Ravens defense
isn't good, then laying this number on the road against
Brian Flores is going to cook something up against Lamar Jackson.
He's been quite good these last couple of weeks. So yeah,
I'm very much on the Minnesota side, but there is

(24:32):
such a wide range of outcomes I could not get
much confidence on this one. Moving to my soul lone Wolf,
we go over to Germany, I did not grab the
German anthem. I should have grabbed country roads. That's what
they'll be singing at full throat at some point Sunday
morning as we're all drinking our coffee and I am

(24:53):
laying the three and a half the six and a half,
excuse me? With the Colts against the Falcons. Ah, this
moved off of the full seven after last week, and
I just think that that's incorrect. I thought both of
the outcomes in the Falcons and Colts games were pretty
predictive to me. I thought the Falcons were going to
play a close win against the Patriots and cover they did.

(25:15):
I thought the Colts were going to go on the
road on grass against the Steelers and face some voodoo,
and they did. And now the market has reacted in
a very important half point coming off of the full
touchdown and going back to the Sauce Gardner thing, I
think Sauce fits in immediately with this defense because lou
runs a very zone heavy scheme. So Sauce just you

(25:39):
go to your side and you just play zone. Right.
There's not going to be a lot of stuff to learn, right.
There might be some handoff stuff, some rules on the
defense that he'll have to get up to speed on,
but by all accounts, Sauce is a very smart guy,
very well studied, very well prepared, so I don't think
it'll be a problem whatsoever to assimilate into this defense.

(26:02):
And I still believe in chain Seke and I still
believe in this offense. So if I think the market
has adjusted too far off of this, then I just
naturally have to like the Colts. And the one thing
that the Falcons have their calling card has has been
running the ball and getting into beijon. In the last

(26:23):
two weeks, they've really struggled to get the running game going,
and I think it's really affected their offense as a whole.
So give me the Colts, give me the half point
of value DP. You're on the other side with Atlanta
in your top five.

Speaker 4 (26:37):
Yeah, I mean, listen, maybe I'm buying into this hole
must win aspect for the Falcons here a little bit
too much, because I mean, three straight losses here, they're
falling really behind both in the division and in the NFC.
I mean, you know, some might say it's just a
false hope for them to even recover at all, But
if they do, I mean you would figure that they

(26:58):
got to put up some sort of meaningful fight this week.

Speaker 1 (27:04):
Now.

Speaker 4 (27:05):
As always a little bit scared with games overseas, right.
I mean, it's just any anything can kind of happen.
But you know that can also be a positive for
you where you know, maybe the Colts don't show up
or whatever. I think I thought the Falcons looked good
last week overall, you know, I mean an extra point,
that game's tied going into overtime, and you know whatever,
Drake London seems like a freaking problem, you know. I mean,

(27:27):
maybe to your point, Rich, they just say, hey, Sauce,
cover that guy, please just stay with him, you know,
But I don't know. I mean, I mean, Drake London's
playing pretty awesome. I also think that, you know, I
think we saw last week that we see what happens
when the Colts offensive line can break down and Daniel

(27:47):
Jones can be under pressure. And Atlanta's defensive front does
rank pretty well in getting pressure, and they also blitz
a lot, you know, I think it's like what a
top ten rate blitz rate in the league. So if
they're able to disrupt Daniel Jones and he doesn't just
have clean pockets all day, does that offense start to
break down? Does it become an issue? And do we
see the Colts who have been flying Hall high all

(28:08):
season just kind of, you know, come back to earth.

Speaker 1 (28:12):
A little bit. Now.

Speaker 4 (28:13):
It scares me a little bit betting against the Colts
after that performance that they put out there last week,
because you know, you should kind of want to buy
back in when they play as bad as they did.
But I think ultimately this one's on the wrong side
of six. So I'm gonna take that with the Falcons.

Speaker 1 (28:27):
Here my mind. I don't remember specifically if the Jets
were playing heavy man at the time, but there was
one matchup between the Jets and Falcons with Sauce and
Drake London in the game. It was twenty twenty three.
Drake London, five targets, one catch, eight yards. So to

(28:48):
your point, if there is a scenario with which they
just stick Sauce on Drake London, there is some history
of success defending him with Sauce. In the secondary, we
moved to Mo who is once again not a believer
in voodoo and is taking the Chargers minus two and

(29:08):
a half, and they bubbled his stuff up.

Speaker 2 (29:12):
Yeah, why would you be a believer in that kind
of fake win? I mean, I don't know everyone's I'm
seeing a lot of ridiculous takes about that game. I'm
right in the middle of it, I think. So the
people who think that just because the Colts outgained the
Steelers that was like the wrong result are absolutely ridiculous.

(29:38):
And the people who think that the Steelers had some
like massive coming out party, I think are equally ridiculous.
So I think it was just a flukey game. Everything
went the Steelers way. I'm not saying they didn't earn it.
But also the Colts turned it over millions of times
because they were under pressure and making mistakes. So the

(30:00):
Steelers force those mistakes. But I don't think it's predicted
because they haven't been able to do it consistently this year.
So yeah, this is a way better quarterback here, sorry
to fifty year old Aaron Rodgers, but Miles better quarterback here,
and just a better team that I think they should
be three point favorites. But number one, I think a

(30:24):
lot of people are going to have the Chargers here.
Number two, I think it's hard to believe in I
can't get all the way there with the bodies. I'm
seeing them rolling out on the offensive line at this
point with all of these injuries. Something Bobby Hart, where
did they get that guy from he's starting, it says, so.

Speaker 1 (30:46):
This is I don't know, man. There in lies the
issue for the Chargers, who are now down both tackles,
with Joe Elsh ending his season with ankle surgery and
quietly the Pittsburgh Steelers fully healthy thirteenth and adjustice sack
rate ninth and pressure rate third and pass rush win
rate TJ. Watt doing TJ Watt things. This just could

(31:10):
be a nightmarish masterup for this Chargers offensive line. And
the most important part for when it comes to Circus
Sports million is I'm seeing threes in real life and
it's two and a half in the contest. So if
that's the case, there is going to be a ton
of leverage on a Steelers team that I think generally
people are very cool on because they don't believe in

(31:34):
the voodoo. They don't believe they they are seeing the
same numbers everybody else. Is how when they win, they
win because of these insane outcomes and random bounces, and
none of these models that people are following are ever
going to support these things. So yeah, I think the
Chargers will be insanely popular, And like you, I am
deathly afraid of what this Chargers offensive line is going

(31:57):
to look like against the Steelers pass rush. Respect to
your cap, I don't know how much success the Steelers
offense is going to have when the Chargers are doing
a very good job of scheming it up on the
back end and the Steelers don't really have very many
options on offense other than throw the ball to DK

(32:18):
Metcalf and hand the ball to Dalen Warren. There's just
not a lot of easy.

Speaker 2 (32:22):
Buttons, most unexciting offense in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (32:26):
It really is. So it's one of those where it's
almost like if everybody approaches the Steelers like a Belichick team,
do your job, don't screw up, like it's really hard
for the Steelers to have offensive success. Mainly a leverage
cap for me, Brett has two lone wolves, and usually
I feel some type of way of representing your guys

(32:50):
and your thoughts, but these are the easiest caps for
me to emulate. For Brett. We start in the Pacific Northwest,
where he's got Jacoby Brissettes plus six and a half
against the Seattle Seahawks something something, backup, quarterback, something something leverage.

(33:12):
This is seven in real life and six and a
half in the contest. That's the cap. That's Brett's cap
from top to bottom. I think that's insane.

Speaker 2 (33:22):
Does this even count his backup quarterback hold on a
second right?

Speaker 1 (33:25):
With Kyler getting first? I don't know about that anymore.
First soft benched, and then it seems like permanently benched
with a phantom. I arstin with a his foothurts. Guys,
he can't play football right now.

Speaker 2 (33:39):
He didn't need to go on the IR last week
or the week before, but now he's got to go
on the IR. There's really selling it here.

Speaker 1 (33:49):
Now that Black Op seven is coming out, Kyler needs
four weeks to grind on his Xbox bearing the lead.
MO absolutely loves the Sea Chickens this week.

Speaker 2 (33:59):
Yeah, I'm I mean, I think an underrated part of
this is just Rashid Shaheed. I don't think people are
understanding how good this guy is and what a perfect
fit he's gonna be with Darnold, who is really doing
a great job attacking down the field this year. His
deep ball has been insane, and you have one of

(34:19):
the best deep runners in the league here. I mean,
this looks like a hand in glove fit to me.
I think this Seahawks offense could be legitimately scary now.
I mean before they were good out performing expectations. Hey JSN,
hats off, but I just don't know how sustainable that

(34:40):
was going to be, even though he keeps sustaining it.
But at some point it's like somebody's gonna triple team him, right,
and just like, but you can't do that anymore, man.
I mean, Rashi cha Heed is that good? And I
think this is going to be a real difference maker
for this offense. I will say the one thing that
that scares me in this spot, and I was gonna

(35:02):
let you guys talk me out of this if if
you guys didn't like the Seahawks, then I was going
to be like, Okay, maybe I'm an idiot and rearrange
some of my picks. But I didn't watch more than
a few snaps of that game last week because grocery gamble.
I decided to do other things with my day, and
by the time I was like looking at the game,

(35:24):
they were already like down seventeen. I think I watched
the last I watched the fourth quarter, and then I
was just like, okay, it's definitely possible that like the
Cardinals defense getting healthier and getting like Walter Nolan back
and everything. Maybe this is like the unit we thought
we were getting at the start of the season. That's
my concern here is that this could actually just be
a good defense. Now. I know they got some corners

(35:46):
back as well, so it's possible that I'm just like
underestimating this defense. So if you guys came out and
told me this was really dumb, I was gonna be like, Okay,
I could understand that. Maybe I didn't watch this Cardinals
defense the whole game, so I missed the boat. But
I think the Seahawks are just being consistently undervalued. Man,
this team is a truck.

Speaker 1 (36:06):
The other thing about the Shaheed trade is he was
in New Orleans. Who was the offensive coordinator last year,
Clint Kubiak. Shaheed already knows the terminology, already knows the system,
already knows what Clint is going to be looking for
when he's calling these plays. So yeah, hand in glove
is the best way to describe this. And Seattle was

(36:29):
perhaps being very smart because Tory Horton is evidently dealing
with a groin injury that he was a full participant
on Wednesday, but then popped up on Thursday with the DNP,
so I don't know if they knew that going into
this trade. But Cooper Cup as well, dealing with the
hamstring injury. He actually returned to practice today, albeit in
a limited fashion, so they understood that they needed some

(36:53):
additional weapons. And man, Shaheed is just the perfect fit
for what they want to do. And this is a
Cardinals team who they kind of just played their super
Bowl right prime time. Dallas the big star win out right,
Marvin Harrison Junior has probably his best game as a pro.

(37:15):
Jacoby Brissett is just serving it up. Everything looks fantastic.
They survive, giving up.

Speaker 2 (37:21):
Apologize to Jacoby, Donnie, apologize to you said he was
cooked brisket.

Speaker 4 (37:28):
He has cooked and he's what has not been that great?
Come on, I mean, it's been ridiculous. And last week
especially Dallas absolutely sucked on defense.

Speaker 1 (37:38):
Okay, it was ridiculous. I'm getting to the point where
you guys know me, everybody, by the way, shout out
to grocery gamble. What would Ryan Day do on Rutgers?
Steima is loving it right now in his off period
watching this on YouTube right now, Get in the discord
bit that l y slash moose. I'm getting to the point,

(38:02):
and y'all know this about me followers, people who have
listened to us for a long time when it comes
to nutcut and time. When it comes to the playoffs,
I am going to be very fearful of somebody like
Sam Darnold in the big spot playing quarterback in a
high leverage situation. But there's just there's something different about
this situation than last year in Minnesota. And I can't

(38:27):
quite put my finger on because in Minnesota had great
surroundings too, obviously with Jettis and Addison, Aaron Jones koc
dialing it up. But I don't know, there's just something
different about what's going on this year that feels more sustainable.
And maybe it's just Donald doing it two years in

(38:47):
a row, essentially putting more positive game tape out there
as opposed to last year being the first time. But
he did crab the bed at the end of last
year when it matters, So yeah, I'm I'm definitely I'm
kind of all in on the Seahawks team. And this
is one of those spots where Brett Leverage wants to

(39:10):
dump the half point knows everybody's gonna take Seattle, but
I think they're gonna be taking them with good reason.
The other Brett lone wolf again something something Dan Campbell,
something something clicking button, something something can't put an X,
and next to Detroit, he's got the comedists plus seven
and a half. Another backup quarterback no longer, just like

(39:32):
Jacoby probably now the permanent quarterback for the Washington Commanders,
as Jayden Daniels injured himself in the dying minutes of
that Seahawks game. And DP, you're on the other side.
You love your guy Dan Campbell, Well, I.

Speaker 4 (39:47):
Mean this is easy, is there? This game has been
circled for a year. I mean he probably circled it,
like like he ruined the paper he went through to
the table, like I let me come on, you got
the you like everything lines up here, And maybe maybe
this is exactly Brett's point, like everything lines up that

(40:07):
you should take it rule a circle. You got a
backup quarterback in here who's not that good. You got
injuries all over the place for the Commanders. You got
the Lions coming off that stupid loss last week, like
you have it.

Speaker 1 (40:20):
All those are all.

Speaker 4 (40:22):
The reasons to take them. So then Brett's just gonna
be like, no other side the Lions might the Lions
are like just the team that like when they when
what happens last week, when everything lines up like it
does this week, Dan cambill might just try and hang
sixty on this stupid team, like because that's who they are,
that's what they do. Like that, He's not gonna like
get up and be like Okay, like let's you know,

(40:44):
let's just run the ball out, run the clock out,
get out of here with a win. No, Like he's
like all about making points, emphasis all this sort of stuff.
So like after what his team did and how bad
they played last week, like like he's gonna run these
guys into the ground and try and put sixty on
these people.

Speaker 1 (41:01):
Like I don't understand trends. I mean, Lions off a loss.
Lions off a loss are like one hundred and zero
against the spread.

Speaker 4 (41:12):
How many like hill sprints you think they ran this
week in Detroit?

Speaker 1 (41:16):
I mean seriously yeah, And this in the facility, they
just have that divisional game running on a loop of
the Commanders beating them in their spot in the playoffs.
This is absolutely the chalk side that I am. I'm
absolutely fine with eighty nine percent of the handle is
on Detroit. I get it, like I get it. I

(41:36):
get it. This Washington team just saw their leader, the
guy who brought them to the NFC Championship game last year,
snap his arm in a meaningless game where they were
getting destroyed, and now they have to come back and
play an extremely physical, extremely motivated football team. This just

(41:57):
says the makings of Detroit Alts all over it. So, yeah, oh,
is that Troy Franklin. This is one of those where
it's it's going well and oh no, it's Pat Bryant.
I'm not a fan of that. I got Troy Franklin
in Guillotine. Yeah, exactly. It's which week ten and get in.

(42:18):
Troy Franklin's out there.

Speaker 2 (42:22):
He's a player I wouldn't be excited to play in
Week two, but I'd feel okay about it.

Speaker 1 (42:27):
All right. The lone Wolf Spread's got the Commanders and Cardinals.
Mode's got the Chargers. I've got the Colts, and Donnie's
got the Bills, Browns and Ravens. Let's make the Week ten.

Speaker 3 (42:38):
Card nine five four three two one fire.

Speaker 1 (42:56):
I've got the first pick for one last week spoiled
it already, but I'll play the sounder again just for fun.
Little Miami flew for the Bills. Kick back on Saturday night.
Enjoy the weather, maybe enjoy a few adult beverages, maybe

(43:20):
something else down in Miami.

Speaker 2 (43:25):
Give me the.

Speaker 1 (43:25):
Dolphins catching a heap of points. Mo, you are up next.
We just discussed this game. Is that Troy Franklin. That
is Troy Franklin. Troy Franklin just go to touchdown.

Speaker 2 (43:40):
That's not good for us, You know that, right, I know.

Speaker 1 (43:43):
But it's this game is this game is going to
be like seventeen thirteen. We're gonna be fine.

Speaker 2 (43:51):
I've heard that before. Okay, well, I mean, Brett's not
gonna be happy, but I've got the Seahawks.

Speaker 3 (44:03):
Cockr.

Speaker 1 (44:04):
I was too busy celebrating that touchdown. Seahawks minus the
six and a half on the car. DPU are up next,
and we'll keep the train rolling of Brett's not gonna
be happy, Yeah, Tan Campbell, let's go.

Speaker 4 (44:21):
We got the Lions just.

Speaker 1 (44:25):
Laying fifteen and a half points with two football teams.
It is the year of the favorites, once again, covering
at a fifty four percent clip in the contests. Let's
add another favorite, because currently and there will be tingering.
Brett is laying it with go the Green Bay Packers. Okay,

(44:51):
we've got four consensus picks. None of them have been
discussed yet, so let's tee off the first one with
the collective.

Speaker 4 (45:11):
The Collective chooses.

Speaker 1 (45:14):
The Houston Texans. Donnie, do you not like that? Are
you worried about this time?

Speaker 3 (45:24):
No?

Speaker 1 (45:24):
No, No, I'm I'm I'm.

Speaker 4 (45:25):
I was looking at my sheet and I was like, well,
it could be this game, or it could be this game.
The Texans are lower on my card, but I was like,
you know what, I kind of want to have the
Texans here. So I'm really happy that we have the
Texans here.

Speaker 1 (45:38):
Moe's worried quite low for him, no confidence points something,
Davis Mills, give us your concerns, Well.

Speaker 2 (45:46):
I guess my concerns are. I don't know what are
my concerns here. I thought this was pretty fair, So
I don't know that I'm like concerned, but I don't
know that I'm excited either. This game is one where
I just I thought that the market would be more
excited about the Jags here. I guess in a spot
where you know, Davis Mills and just a Houston team

(46:09):
that nobody's been excited about all year pretty much.

Speaker 1 (46:12):
I mean I moved four points off look ahead of
minus three, moves four points off three through zero. I
mean that is, but I think it's like about right.

Speaker 2 (46:21):
Isn't that about right?

Speaker 1 (46:22):
I don't know. This Jags team is just a bunch
of assholes, and now you've got no BTJ like they
can't get it going on offense, man like, out of desperation,
they treated a bunch of stuff for Jacoby Myers, who
like isn't a difference maker. I think he's a nice player,
but I don't think Jacoby Myers is going to come
in and all of a sudden make this offense extremely efficient.

(46:43):
And the Texans defense just keeps doing it. So we
just need Davis Mills to rub a couple of brain
cells together and put a few drives together. I think,
I mean total of thirty seven, like I get it.
Though I was the second lowest on this No, actually
I was hotgher than DP. But yeah, I had a

(47:06):
very strong top two with Dolphins Jets, and then I
struggled pretty much vehemently after that. So we can get
into consensus picks that did not make the card again
so far it is Texans, Dolphins, Seahawks, Lions, Packers. Let's
get into what I just think this is the stinkiest
line of the week. It's Patriots at Bucks. Bucks are

(47:28):
minus two and a half. I don't know a single
human being that is not supporting the Bucks this week,
and yet there is enough market pressure I'm assuming from
people with a lot of money who make decisions such
that this is not getting the three, and if it's
touched three for any millisecond, it's been met back down

(47:50):
to two and a half. I just think the Bucks
are the cap to me is simple. I think the
Bucks are good, and I think the Patriots are just average,
and you've got a Bucks team coming off of extra
rest at home. The biggest issue is this is something
our guy shouts to Steima put in the discord, is

(48:10):
that traditionally Josh McDaniels has kind of cooked against Todd Bowles.
And we know once again how good Drake May is
against the blitz. So if the Bucks plan is to
bring pressure by blitzing as opposed to to rushing their
front four, then Drake May can beat that. But I
don't know, man, I wanted to love the Bucks, but

(48:32):
everybody loves the Bucks, so it just kept tumbling down
my card and I put no confidence on it.

Speaker 2 (48:37):
Well, yeah, I also wanted to love the Bucks. Actually,
part of it is just because of the way the Patriots.
You know, they just don't put that much pressure on
the quarterback. So if you don't put pressure on Baker Mayfield,
that that's the rule's been he cooks you. That's the
rule all season. If you don't get in Baker Mayfield's face,

(48:57):
he cooks you. So I think that they play the
right style for the Bucks. And yeah, I just I
think the Bucks are probably a slightly better team and
they're coming off the by but it's still hard to
be very confident in them, especially with Chris Godwin and
Bucky Irving and all these guys still struggling. Doesn't look

(49:20):
like they're going to come back. I ultimately landed that
I thought this was pretty fair, but I kind of
wanted to love the Bucks too.

Speaker 1 (49:28):
Donne anything on your Patriots or can we move on?

Speaker 4 (49:33):
Yeah, I just want to hate the Patriots, So it's
not I want to love the Bucks. I just want
to hate the Patriots, but they somehow kind of do
it every single week.

Speaker 1 (49:42):
So I don't know. I think I blew this next one,
Rams at Niners. The Niners are four and a half
point home dogs, and we are all laying it with
the Rams. But I'm the only person who has no
confidence points on this DP. You are the highest on

(50:04):
this one, So sell me on Saint Louis in San Francisco.

Speaker 4 (50:08):
I mean, the Rams are better literally everywhere. Running back
Louis whatever, same thing, it's still the Rams. They're better
literally everywhere everywhere other than running back. I mean, and
I know CMC is like a great running back, but
I mean, come on, I think the Rams can win
on offense on defense. They have like top five in

(50:31):
both in the league. They're just a super well rounded team.
They're well coached, they got a good quarterback. They can
win in the trenches. They have a big score to
settle after. Sorry Mo, they lost in that Thursday night. Yeah,
I mean, come on, we just talked about rule of
circle with the Lions. This is rule of circle too,
against a divisional opponent that you're fighting with here, still like,

(50:51):
you can't give up any ground in this division specifically,
So yeah, let's go Rams.

Speaker 1 (50:57):
No anything to add triple.

Speaker 2 (51:01):
Yeah, just that At this point, I think it's just comedy.
What the forty nine ers are left with on defense?
I this is the walking wounded. I mean this, I
don't even know. I think the Rams could win this
game by twenty, but like will they I don't know?
But yeah, I think this line is just ultimately I landed.

(51:22):
It's like a point too low. But if the Rams
came out in one by twenty, because the forty nine
ers have nothing left, would that surprise me?

Speaker 1 (51:29):
Definitely?

Speaker 2 (51:30):
Not. Like this team is held together with you know,
bubble gum and tying popsicle sticks together for splints. You
guys remember doing that putting that around your finger when
you're spraying your finger and you gotta use the popsicle
stick for the splint. They got nothing left, so I

(51:51):
just feel like they're ready to collapse, but they keep
coming out and doing it. But you know, the teams
they're playing in some cases are just like, I don't know,
the Falcons completely shit the bed off, and then the
Giants just are really bad. So probably time for it
all to collapse for the Niners. But you know, I've
been kicked in the dick before on this.

Speaker 1 (52:09):
So yeah, Michael Williams joins the IR brigade, tearing his
ACL and now d Winters pops up here as a
DNP on Thursday with the knee injury. Alfred Collins pops
up as a DNP with a hip injury. Hey yeah,
the Niners kind of to me signaled that they're like

(52:30):
soft tanking by making no moves on Tuesday, where there
was only one linebacker traded in the entire NFL. Near
the deadline, the Jets were seemingly begging to give away
Quincy Williams, who's on a lame duck contract, and I
think they would have taken as little as a five
or six four. But Sala, you would think, of all

(52:52):
the people in the league, somebody who would stand on
a table for Quincy Williams. It was Robert Sala And
the Niners didn't pull the trigger, so they might just
be packing in here. And yeah, quadruple circles revenge on
that Thursday night game. I can definitely see rams by margin.
And then the last game, I mean, you guys lining

(53:15):
up lining up to put circum millions equity on something
tiler shop in the New Orleans Saints. Help O help me.

Speaker 2 (53:30):
You just have to fade the Panthers after that fake
ass massive upset and this entire fake ass season. I mean,
this is you cannot lay points with teams that can't
pass the ball. That's what this is. If you cannot
pass the ball, you cannot lay points with these teams.

Speaker 1 (53:45):
And they are laying.

Speaker 2 (53:46):
Five and a half, which is wild. Okay, I understand
that they are better than the Saints, but this is
an insane line to me that that anybody could just
like lay points here. But you know, we don't even
know what the saintsavac quarterback. So I get I get
it from that standpoint, Like it's hard for me to
just like be too confident, but I do think this

(54:07):
is like a point and a half too high probably.
I mean it just they're gonna come out and run
the ball. I mean Bryce Young had one hundred and
twenty yards passing last week. Like this is they can't
keep getting away with this af Like they keep doing
that and it's like they're five and four or whatever,
but this is a mirage. Like I just you can't

(54:31):
lay points with a team that doesn't complete passes. So
you know, HB diving with Rico Daudle. Yes, I love
this for my fantasy teams, and I loved it for
thirteen and a half point dogs or whatever that was
last week.

Speaker 1 (54:45):
But once you have to.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
Like cover a number, you need to generate offense. I mean,
I just don't see it.

Speaker 1 (54:51):
Yeah, I just I don't know.

Speaker 3 (54:52):
Man.

Speaker 1 (54:53):
You know what's crazy about this is that the preseason
look ahead was four and a half, so it's only
a point elevated from what the preseason line was. Three
and a half was the weekly look ahead moves two
points off of the shuck arrival of I mean, it's funny.
He wasn't awful if you look at the box. They

(55:15):
just like weren't trying, Like they didn't run anything inspiring.
They ran that slow, like three yard hitch offense that
they were running with Spencer Ratler just to basically limit mistakes.
Although I'm seeing his eight out was nine and a half, like,
so I guess they were taking shots down the field.
I just I guess. I didn't Liay eyes on it,

(55:36):
but he was point oh one epa per play, like
he was just your average NFL quarterback. They just were
wholly uninspiring on their drives. But yeah, I just I know,
I know every like you just can't lay five and
a half points with Bryce Young. That's why I put
an X next to New Orleans. But I don't know
if I can muster real American dollars on this one.

(55:56):
I think thirty nine and a half. I think I'm
going to when I hit the stop button. I think
I haven't bet the under on that. Like, I know
it's low, but like neither of these teams can throw
the football. Now that of these teams want to throw
the football, so I think I might take an interest

(56:17):
in that. But yeah, all right. There will be tinkering
at gerd Ain Gamble on Twitter for our final card,
especially from Brett, which of course could affect the collective
selection bo Nicks throwing one of the worst arm punds
you'll ever see with thirty seconds remaining too, like the
it's at altitude, like the Raiders can for sure sneak

(56:39):
a field go out of those Let's go Vegas. So
be sure to check out for the final card as
it is right now once again Texans, Dolphins, Seahawks, Lions, Packers, Seahawks, Lions.
Very it is the twenty twenty five collect that we've
come around to sampling a bit of chalk on our card.
Follow these guys on Twitter at Donnie, Underscore, Peters and

(56:59):
at Anora and you double W A R A H.
I'm at Rich d Ryan. Enjoy your betting venture. See
you in the discord. Peace. Oh you assholes that taekwon.