2025 Week 16: Outside Looking In

The Collective slipped a bit again in Week 15 with a 2-3 record, but are still hunting a cash in Circa Sports Million.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
And welcome back to Great.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
A Jambled, the only podcast that puts its money where
its mouth is. I'm your host, rich Ron, and I'm
joined by the entire collective, The Disciple, Brett Colson, Donnie D. P. Peters,
and the Resident moves himself Moon Nowara. If you're watching
this on YouTube, please like the video and subscribe to

(00:36):
the channel Listeners, rate and review on your podcaster of
choice five stars only. Like Charles Cross, left tackle of
the Seattle Seahawks, we're victorious last night on Thursday Night Football.
Unfortunately for Mo, who was on Way the Right Side

(00:57):
with love. MO was of an epic rant before we
hit record. He's sick of football, He's sick of us.
Apparently we're we're the reason. I mean, I was rubbing
him a little bit last night in the group chat.
But Mo, I'm actually I don't feel bad about you
losing a bet, because we lose bets all the time.

(01:17):
I feel bad because you're feeling sick. Buddy, you've been
going through these last forty eight hours.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
I'll be all right.

Speaker 3 (01:29):
You guess up betting on the rams.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
On Thursdays specifically, that's what most exactly.

Speaker 1 (01:35):
Thank you.

Speaker 2 (01:37):
Two and three last week in circa sports million, which
means now we're going to have to mix in a
four and one at least in one of these last
three weeks if we're going to sneak into the money.
It's annoying because everybody, including the collective was three and
two except for Mo who was two and three. So
like on average, we should have been able to squeak

(02:00):
out a winning week, but unfortunately that's not the case.
But again, couple three and two is one four to one.
We'll be right in there, and if we mix in
some leverage, we could even climb a little bit higher.
Full fifteen games slate and I was told that we
have a hard stop because somebody has to do some

(02:21):
real work. And then that dude who has some real
work decided to click six loan holds Brett Colson. So
let's get going. We'll start with a very fun one
Niners at Colts. The Colts are five and a half
point home dogs in the contest. I guess we're doing
this again. I guess old man Philip Rivers is just

(02:44):
going to be playing quarterback again in pro football. Brett,
I can't wait to hear this cap from you, because
Brett loves the Colts this week. It's as if he
didn't watch Philip Rivers last week put everything on the
line in order to throw for one hundred yards in
pro football, and Brett is marching to the window to

(03:06):
take the points with Indianapolis.

Speaker 4 (03:09):
Well, the good thing is he's not playing against a
real defense this week. I don't think this forty nine
ers defense is built to lay this kind of number
right now. This pass rush can't get home with uplitzing,
And that's the worst possible approach against Philip Rivers. Like,
see what you want about his arm strength at this stage,
and yeah, they do. Can't throw the football, but like
I said last week, he can still diagnose pressure instantly.

(03:32):
He knows where the ball needs to go and when
that ball is going to. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman
and Warren good football players. San Francisco's linebackers and corners
are going to struggle to get stops. The bigger mismatch, though,
is Jonathan Taylor. San Francisco one of the worst run
defenses in the league, especially the second half of this season.

(03:53):
They just gave up a fifty three percent success rate
to Cleveland sixty eight percent to Tennessee. They're dead last
in rough success rate allowed over the past month and
a half, and now Taylor, who's been quiet lately, this
is his easiest matchup in a month. So I believe
Indy can move the sticks, shorten the game, protect Rivers
from having to win this game by himself. Is San

(04:14):
Francisco going to score? Yeah, of course, But I think
the Colts can can keep this close with success on
the offensive side of the ball. So I really really
like into here.

Speaker 2 (04:24):
Mo and I both have the niners in our respective
top fives after laying our eyes on Philip rivers play
quarterback last week, and well, I'll let you take it away.

Speaker 1 (04:35):
I mean, what is there to say? He can't throw
the ball more than four yards? So I guess if
you just don't put your entire defense within five yards
within the line of scrimmage, maybe the Colts might be
able to get a few yards. But hopefully Robert Sala's
brain is on and he puts his entire defense within
five yards of the line of scrimmage and Philip Rivers
won't complete a pass. This dude is beyond cooked and

(04:59):
the Seahawks should be embarrassed by what happened to them
when they actually allowed a couple of drives, But it
was nothing but dump offs, that's all. It was literally
swing passes, nothing but swing passes.

Speaker 4 (05:13):
Stiching.

Speaker 2 (05:15):
This reminds me of the Rams Lions game of last week,
where I in my account I have Niners and the over.
I think there are going to be points here. I
think the Colts will be able to take advantage in
some spots of this porous Niners defense. But the Niners
offense is coming online right now with everybody back, with

(05:35):
everybody healthy, and the Colts still have their most important
secondary pieces injured in Sauce Gardner and Treveri's Ward, So
I think the same. The Niners offense is just going
to absolutely have its way in this contest indoors. I
think Shanahan is just absolutely gonna cook this Colts defense.
And yeah, I think this is Niners by name the score.

(06:00):
And then if you get Rivers in a negative script,
what are you gonna do if you're down ten points
and you just have to play drop back quarterback Philip Rivers.
I just don't think that ends very well this next game.
It's me and more on contentious sides. This time. And
it's with my fighting this tank. Well, I just Frodian slip.

(06:29):
This cap just comes down to the Jets blowing the tank.
This is the game where the New York Jets blow
the tank against a Saints team who got the fakest
win last week, fake roughing the passer, the most ridiculous
call you'll ever see. Panthers were inside the number for
fifty five minutes in that game. Tyler Schuck stinks. This

(06:52):
Saints team stinks. This number is insane. Five and a
half points in the contest and with ty Rod up
and I'm telling you this is this is how the
Jets operate, right, Brady Cook will start this game, Brady
Cook will get injured in this game, and Tyrod Taylor
will enter this game at quarterback at some point and
there will be a league average backup playing quarterback. This

(07:16):
is just the game the Jets below the tank. The
Jets went out right here and the Jets don't get
a quarterback. But Mo Mo was laying all the points
with something shuck in the Saints.

Speaker 1 (07:26):
Yeah, I mean, first of all, the Saints had a
plus by their name, stats were even across the board
and they won the game. So yeah, I think they
were probably the right side outside the number.

Speaker 2 (07:36):
For fifty five minutes of football.

Speaker 1 (07:39):
Yeah, they were down three most of that game, seven
seventeen ten. And then this is just I'm not even
gonna respond to this. Just go to the next game.
This is ridiculous. You're capping for a random quarterback injury. Yeah,
I mean, if Tyrod Taylor started, I would not bet
the Saints because he's a professional. I mean, they have
a non professional starting at quarter The Jets are the

(08:01):
worst team in the NFL. They're worse than the Raiders.
They're not worse than because the Raiders at least have
They're not worse as bad as Gino is. He's miles
better than something cook. It's not even close. Be serious,
This dude is going to be selling insurance in three years. Chance,
there's no way he can be starting NFL games.

Speaker 2 (08:20):
Donny also has the same sort of stop that. I mean.

Speaker 3 (08:24):
My only notes are this is simply a play on
the quarterbacks. Because Tyler Shuck has been okay.

Speaker 5 (08:30):
He's not in I don't think okay, Yeah he's okay.
Did I come in here and say he's great, No,
he's okay. He's been fine. Comparative to whatever the hell
you're putting on the field. He is for sure, Okay,
I mean come on.

Speaker 1 (08:46):
Man, yeah, this is the opposite of what you're saying.
This is the Jets are all in on the tank.
They are committed, man, That's why they're starting this guy.

Speaker 2 (08:54):
This is also dead cat bounce for the defense. Steve
Wilks fired. I'm telling you guys, this is the Jets
Wine Get Jets money line in your account. It is.

Speaker 4 (09:04):
This is also I think this is also a really
good lover spot because it means six and a half
in real life. Now contest numbers five and a half,
people are gonna jam.

Speaker 1 (09:13):
Well, it wasn't. It was four and a half last
night when I did this, and now it's six. So
what do you want?

Speaker 2 (09:20):
Last blait game Vikings at Giants Mo flip flopping a
bit here because he couldn't fade the Vikes hard enough
last week and now he's in on the Vikes bubbling
his top five.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
Well, if McCarthy can move the ball against horrific defenses,
there's not many more horrific than the Giants. And then
on the other side, you just have Brian Floores against
Jackson Dart who is adult, So yeah, I don't see
that ending well. So yeah, I think the I think
the Vikings should be four point favorites here, so unfortunately
everybody else knows that it's already moving that way. So

(09:55):
uh yeah, I don't think this is going to be
a good side maybe for the contest, but man, if
you can get Vikings minus three, that seems pretty good
to me.

Speaker 2 (10:04):
So I think this is I think the Giants earn
a good spot here. Dome team outdoors Christian dearrisov trending
towards not playing against this defensive front. This is McCarthy
off of a win. Like you said, people are gonna
be jamming the Vikings in the contest where I think

(10:25):
these are two pretty evenly matched teams and you're getting
three points with the home team better quarterback. I think
Dart has for sure exhibited that he's a better quarterback
than JJ McCarthy. The biggest fear, and this is why
I couldn't get this into my top five in a
bubble is what you said of Brian Flores versus Jackson Dart,

(10:47):
because if in any scenario, Dart has to play pure
drop back and he's trying to diagnose what Brian Flores
is cooking up. I think that's problematic. But if somehow
CAF can get this to be simplified one look, get
a lot of boot action, make it simple for Dart.
I think they can remain competitive in this game, but

(11:09):
that Deosol injury is the one to keep your eyes
out on, because if there's any path that the Giants
having success, it starts with generating pressure on JJ. All right, Brett,
you ready time for some loan wolves. Bred has only

(11:36):
one lone wolf of consequence, really, and it starts here
in his top five with a double bird game, and
it's a team he just can't quit. The Arizona Cardinals
are getting three points at home as they play host
to Kurko Chains and the Atlanta Falcons.

Speaker 4 (11:58):
Yeah, I mean this is really just laying three on
the road with a bad football team that has nothing
to play for. Neither one of these teams has anything
to play for. Why are the Falcons laying three against anybody?

Speaker 1 (12:12):
Right now?

Speaker 4 (12:12):
That's where I lighted on this. Plus I think probably
people have just given up on the Cardinals as well,
so this is a leverage side. There's one key thing
with my lone Wolves here. Almost all these games land
on a key number, like they're all almost at three
or seven. This is the one exception that isn't my
top five because I do think the Cardinals can just

(12:33):
win this game out right, Because what are the Falcons
playing for at this point? Why are they favored on
the road?

Speaker 1 (12:39):
I tell me, I think because the Cardinals have the
worst defense in the NFL.

Speaker 4 (12:44):
It's pretty bad.

Speaker 2 (12:45):
I think. I think Kirk Crusins has like fifty million
reasons to go out and try to put forth the
best effort because Brett, you make that face. But with
this panis injury, this is Kirk's chance. Like, if Kirk
plays like an asshole, they just cut him and he
goes to some other dirt bag team next year. But

(13:05):
if Cousins plays anywhere close to the level he played
last week against the Box, then he can hang out
and bridge them back to Pennix coming back from health,
and that's gonna make him like twenty million dollars additional
as opposed to getting cut. That being said, nobody is
really high on Atlanta. Donnie is the highest with them.

(13:27):
Soft Bubbling is.

Speaker 3 (13:29):
Most said it that the Cardinals defense is just freaking atrocious.
I think if I do agree with rich on the
whole Cousins point, like in a game where both teams
don't have anything to play for, I think if anyone's
going to be able to rally the troops, it's fucking
Kirk Cousins out of all people, Like I just kind
of believe in that. I mean, Drake Lennon's going to

(13:49):
play right, I think seems like it, So that's a
huge win for them. And then John Robinson is unstoppable.
I mean, what's the defense going to do against him?
He's like literally unstoppable out there. So I mean, I
know it's not exactly the best feeling in the world
to want to lay a field goal on the road
with the Falcons, but I mean this Cardinals team is

(14:11):
just absolutely done, absolutely done.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
The other thing about when you do select a quarterback
like Cousins, who is an absolute statue, it's nice to
do it against the team that's twenty ninth in pressure
rate and is not going to move him off the
spot in the pocket. We moved to this next one,
Raiders at Texans. This one had The good thing about

(14:36):
your lone Wolves bread is that only the last two
have a lot of contention because at fourteen minus fourteen,
it's really hard to get involved in this game at all.
You have the Raiders soft bubbling though with the return
of Gino Smith.

Speaker 4 (14:51):
Yeah, a few thinks here one is nobody ever clicks
on the Raiders, so there will be a little leverage.
I don't think there's gonna be a lot of uh,
a lot of popularity for either of these sides. Look
ahead on look ahead in this game is twelve.

Speaker 2 (15:04):
And a half.

Speaker 4 (15:05):
We're at fourteen and a half now. I also, I
don't believe this Texans offense is good enough to be
laying this kind of number bottom half of the league.
In offense EPA, they don't run the ball well at all,
which I mean, if we're trying to join the clock away,
I'd like to have some kind of sumbletce of a
of a rushing offense to score some points late in

(15:27):
the football game and avoid getting back doors. So that's
kind of where I landed once again. I'm probably gonna
go down to Flames with the Raiders.

Speaker 2 (15:35):
Moe, You've got the other side, Houston Soft, tobling your
top five.

Speaker 1 (15:40):
You don't believe in Jawar Jordan I saw that name,
and I've never seen that name before in the bottom
happened the other day?

Speaker 4 (15:47):
What happened to Dara?

Speaker 1 (15:49):
Did they finally give up on Darry? I don't know.
I always thought he was out there sketcher, but I
saw dar teams. But yeah, he scored touchdown last week,
didn't he? Yeah? Something Jawar Jordan. I just the Raiders
aren't going to score more than ten points. They just won't.
So I don't know. The Texans offense keeps cooking these
bad defenses, so I just don't don't know. I need it.

(16:12):
I need you to be right. I need Geno to
throw for three touchdowns and just lose this game like
a normal team, thirty one to twenty one, and then
you know, I might have a chance to get this
Geno Smith touchdown over to the window. But yeah, I
just I can't. The Raiders don't score points. This is
the worst offense in the NFL, So how are they

(16:33):
going to score on Houston? The only way I can
see this being anything is if Houston is just absolutely sleepwalking,
which is definitely possible.

Speaker 2 (16:41):
I wanted to look up real quick Houston's most recent
offensive numbers with Stroud post concussion and some of these guys,
the young guys contributing. And even still they're sixteenth the
last three weeks in offense EPA, So even during this
time period where they're scoring forty last week, it's still
not top of the league level stuff. And it's worth

(17:03):
it's worse rushing twentieth in EPA, twenty second in success rate.
So yeah, it's gonna be hard to salt the gameway
of something you are. But to most point, if the
Texans defense, if they exhibit effort in this game, like,
how do the Raiders put up any points? Speaking of

(17:24):
putting up points, the Lions did so in bunches last
week in a failed effort against the Rams, and this
week they're laying seven against Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers,
and Brett's like, every week is fading the Lions.

Speaker 4 (17:42):
Well, I mean this is rule of how do I
fade both these teams? I hate both of these teams.
I have nothing on this game. You guys tell me.

Speaker 1 (17:48):
Well, everyone's hurt for Pittsburgh and they don't really need
to win the game, and it's on the road. So
I'm just like, and it's feels like the Lions off
a loss like what just feels like a game they
pack in at middle of the third quarter when they're
down seventeen.

Speaker 4 (18:05):
Why don't the Steelers need to win?

Speaker 1 (18:07):
It's basically my understanding is basically, if if Ravens and
Steelers have the same results this week, then next week
doesn't even matter. That's how irrelevant the rest of the
schedule is for Steelers and Ravens. It's basically only comes
down to their last game against each other most scenarios.

Speaker 2 (18:29):
And yeah, this is just Dan campbell awful loss. The
Steelers defense which is so so soft, especially in the
middle of the field. I mean, this isn't Tua outside
in the cold on the road handing you the football

(18:50):
multiple times, right, And when you saw the Dolphins actually
operate with some urgents there, urgency in fourth quarter, they're
moving the ball. Okay, and now you've got a Lions
team that is just gonna be full throttle at home,
Dan Campbell, the question is, does the contest go back

(19:14):
to the well with their beloved Detroit Lions or do
they pump the brakes a little bit off of last week.
I don't know this, This contest loves the Lions so
I could see them just dipping right back in and
laying the seven with Detroit.

Speaker 1 (19:29):
Yeah, like other thing in this game is just like
when I just look at like Pittsburgh is the same
as Philip Rivers. They won't throw more than five yards
down the field most of the time, and that you
have to attack this bum ass decimated Lions secondary throwing guy.
And I just don't believe Rodgers is gonna do it.

Speaker 2 (19:45):
And we know that even when even with injuries across
the board, the Lions are still gonna do what they
do and play a ton of man and be near
the lion of skrimmage, right, So they are going to
press these receivers and play tight. So just throwing the
ball short is going to be ineffective as opposed to
stretching the field and trying to beat a bum like

(20:06):
DJ Reid, like the like Metcalf should have a buck
fifty on DJ Reid if you push the ball down
the field. But I don't know if Rogers is capable
of that, and we certainly have seen that they are
not interested in trying that. This next one playoff preview

(20:28):
Jaguars at Broncos. The Broncos are a full three point
favorite in Denver, and Brett has Trevor Lawrence quite low
plus the three.

Speaker 4 (20:40):
Yeah low, because yet another key number, and I just
clicked the leverage side. I don't think people are buying
into this Jaguars team, and probably rightly so. This is
definitely a fair line, maybe even short. But this was
just a leverage contest play for me.

Speaker 2 (20:55):
Yeah. So, from a contest perspective, with eighty eight percent
of the handle on Denver and the Jags coming off
of the fakes blowout against my fraudulent New York Jets,
this is definitely a side that I did not want
to be near. From a contest perspective, I will say
I actually have a fun little parlay in real life.
I've got Denver minus seven with the Jags team total

(21:19):
under at plus four hundred in my account, because I
don't think Trevor Lawrence sched trawling to Denver at altitude
against this defense is going to result in anything good
for the Orange Crush. Donnie and Mo agree because they
both have Denver in their respective top five s DP.

(21:40):
We'll start with you.

Speaker 3 (21:41):
I mean, I'm with what you said there at the end, Rich,
I mean, this is a big boy football game, and
I'm not sure I'm ready to put the Jaguars and
Trevor Lawrence in the big boy tier. I'm sorry, Like,
this is a really tough spot to play against the
Broncos team, specifically a Broncos defense that is pretty darn good.
I mean, we can obviously say what we want about Bonyx.

(22:03):
You know, sorry, Odb, you know love you mean it,
but you know, the guy's just he doesn't he does it.

Speaker 2 (22:09):
The dude out. Hey, the dude balled out last week?

Speaker 1 (22:13):
Why does everyone keep acting like he was amazing? He
tried to throw five picks, the Packers dropped all of them.

Speaker 3 (22:19):
I mean, the reason why everyone acts like that, MO
is because Bonix is extremely polarizing, so everyone has to
just dig in on either side of the trench that
they're on.

Speaker 2 (22:28):
I know I've been, I've been one of the biggest
bo haeters on planet Earth. But even I could respect
the effort that he put forth last week despite your hatreds.

Speaker 3 (22:39):
I think Bonix is one of those guys where he
just I mean, he rises to the competition or the
level of the game or whatever. Like he I mean,
in a simple term, he's a gamer, like at the
end of the day, like and that's just that's something
silly and stupid and hard to cap because you're capping
for heart rankings. But I mean, the guy brings it
and and somebody who I can't really try and the

(23:00):
heart ringings is on the other side, Trevor Lawrence.

Speaker 2 (23:03):
Well, it's also it's also coaching too, in that he
fits Peyton's system. Like Peyton when Peyton had Russell Wilson,
Peyton was so damn stubborn trying to jam around Peg
into a square hole to run his boot short throw
intermediate offense, which is just not what Russell Wilson could do.

(23:23):
And yet Peyton tried to do it over and over
and over again unsuccessfully. But now he has a dude
in bo Knicks who runs that boot action offense quite well.
We're seeing the results of it Mo Pylon with Denver.

Speaker 1 (23:36):
Honestly, maybe a little bit of disagreement with Donnie. I
think Trevor Lawrence has too much heart. That's probably his problem.
He's just always trying to make big plays on spots
where you maybe shouldn't, and that's I think why he
has a lot of those sacks and fumbles. And this
is just like the worst spot for that. Basically, I've
just seen Trevor Lawrence against good defenses like this too

(23:56):
many times. He's gonna be adult at times and try
to try to extend plays. I don't think this is
the spot for that. You need to just be smart
against the Broncos. Take your throwaways, take your check downs.
I don't know if I trust Trevor Lawrence to play
like that, and the market knows that. Unfortunately, like Brett's saying,
this is already out to three and a half, I
think everybody's going to be on the Broncos. I think rightfully,

(24:17):
so the Broncos should not only be three point favorites
at home. Like Donnie said, a dude agree with him there.
Just I'm not ready to put the Jags in this
group yet. I know they've played a tougher schedule than Denver,
but just the eye test is telling me, and the
talent on the rosters is telling me that Denver is
just a better team than the Jaguars. So I don't
understand why they're three point favorites here. Neither did the market.

Speaker 2 (24:37):
Patriots at Ravens. The computers still can't do it. They
still don't understand that the Ravens are just your average
to below average football team. The problem and what's crazy
is I'm still seeing sixty avers of the handle on

(24:58):
the Ravens. So there's still support for people betting on Baltimore,
but Brett the same that your head tilt there. I've
heard nothing but people at microphones this week talk about Patriots.
Patriots money line is the only side you can be
on this week, So I'm kind of with you. I
understand why you clicked Balta. This seems like it's going
to be the levers. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (25:20):
I think most of that money probably came in on
Ravens minus two and a half, and now that it's
at three, especially in the contest, I think people are
looking at this and wondering why the Ravens are getting
this much credit against a team that's still battling for
the one seed. I think these teams are pretty close,
and the Ravens. I think the Ravens still have a
lot to play for. They're trying to find themselves as

(25:41):
they still battle for a playoff spot. So between leverage
and I think just the people have just given up
on this Ravens team and still a belief in in
the Patriots. That that's where I landed on this game.

Speaker 2 (25:57):
The problem is Lamar Jackson his turbo dog shit and
against a horrendous Bengals defense in a dream spot where
they should have gotten it all back together and fired
on all cylinders. He had point zero seven EPA per
play that should have been Lamar at point three point

(26:19):
four MVP. Lamar dropping bombs, running for yards, and it
just wasn't like this offense is so constipated. The fear
for me is obviously the popularity of New England coupled
with these injuries. Carlton, Davis, Marcos, Shownes, Harold Landry Roberts

(26:40):
plain All had not practiced through Thursday. So and then
there's the other bit where Drake may kind of pooped
his pants last week quietly up twenty one, Zierl blowing
the game fourth quarter, couldn't make any plays whatsoever against
a Bill's defense that hasn't looked that great itself. So

(27:03):
those for those reasons, that's why I had it low.
But MO did not have it low. MO has the
New England Patriots in his topline.

Speaker 1 (27:12):
Yeah, I mean, Brett said it. This is two very
evenly matched teams in my opinion. So one of them
is getting three points and it has a better quarterback
to boot, So I'm baffled how they could ever be
three point favorites. But it's gonna be maybe off three.
I mean, it's a lot of juice to take the three.
So I think this is the very obvious fish side.
So unfortunately, Yeah, it's yeah, it's like you said. I

(27:38):
mean you said a game where they should it was
two games against the Bengals. They got a fake cover
last week. I mean maybe not like in the sense of, yeah,
they were the right side. They deserved to cover. It
was a small number, but they did not play like
a team that won by twenty four, Like that should
have been like a seven point game or something like
the Bengals kept driving to the thirty and then not score.

(28:00):
I mean, the Ravens aren't good. Like just because they
won a game twenty four to zerl, it does not
mean things are fixed there. They still did not play
particularly well. So I think that this could be a
reality check for them against a quarterback who loves throwing
deep and corners that I've seen struggle against the deep
ball at times over the years. So yeah, I just

(28:21):
you could see you could see some bombs the other
way here from the Patriots.

Speaker 2 (28:25):
The issue is is that all these models, when they
have their Lamar Jackson input, they still have whatever Lamar
Jackson's attributes are next to it. And I think that's
kind of been the issue this whole season with the market.
The way the market has grated a lot of these
teams that have had recent success is that. And I

(28:46):
get it from a modeling perspective, you can't be too
dynamic in how much you're making these changes, but in
small sample pro football, you kind of gotta be reactionary.
Yet kind of got to realize that the Eagles can't
move the ball, and that Lamar Jackson is a bum,
and that the Chiefs offense isn't what we've seen these

(29:06):
last couple of years. And yet these models have not
been reactionary enough, and that's why these teams have been
so poor.

Speaker 1 (29:15):
In fairness though compared to these other teams. So the
Chiefs have looked like the Chiefs at times this year,
and the Eagles have looked like the Eagles at times
this year. The Ravens have not had one game since
a week literally one where they look like the Ravens.

Speaker 2 (29:29):
Yeah, that's fair. There's never even been a reasonable facsimile
of our expectations from Baltimore. All right, last one from
Bratt Bucks at Panthers. Brett no longer on the Bryce
at home trend because seems like the majority of people
are going to be on that exact rain.

Speaker 4 (29:50):
Yeah, that's really all it is. And again another key
number here that I just I want to just stay
away from. So I think that gets my last pick.
So I have nothing this game.

Speaker 2 (30:00):
I've got the highest pinion on Carolina. It's soft bubbled
for that reason. I didn't want to give it the
full top five support because of popularity. But man, this
is a spot where you would think that the market
would be questioning the Bucks off of that game. Off

(30:23):
of that loss, Todd Bowles mumbling curse words because he's
incapable of projecting wearing his cream fickle vest. It's just
the most bizarre profanity late in rant I've ever seen
in pro football. And yet this goes from a look
ahead of Bucks minus one and a half to Bucks

(30:43):
minus three because the Panthers lose a one score game
against another division rival. I don't get it right. I
would think that the market would be more negative towards
Tampa Bay in this scenario, but they're just piling Tampa.
So we get this insane number for the Panthers. But
I do think the contest is sharp enough that they're

(31:05):
going to be They're going to want to be on
Carolina at this number. All right, Mo, you are up next.
You have a lone wolf that is low. Moe, myself,
and Donnie all have lone wolves outside of our top
five singular lone wolves. And once again, I feel like

(31:27):
Mo got burned by that Cowboys game last week because
he is taking the two and a half points with
the Bolts as they travel to Big d Well.

Speaker 1 (31:36):
Yeah, if they can't stop JJ McCarthy, what are they
going to do against Justin Herbert. I don't know what
to do with this game. I had this multiple points off,
but it's just dead numbers in the middle. I had
the Chargers favored in this one, but uh yeah, but
it just it all comes down to one thing. It's
just can the Chargers protect their quarterback because if they can,

(31:58):
he's going to destroy this embarrassing Dallas secondary. But if
they can, obviously it could look a lot different. It's
just a good matchup on both sides of the ball. Honestly,
I'm happy to watch this one. I don't think I'm
gonna be betting on it. Dak still played a pretty
good game, so Dallas's offense still looks pretty good. What

(32:19):
happened to George Pickens?

Speaker 2 (32:20):
Though?

Speaker 1 (32:20):
Man, this guy was mossing people weekly three weeks ago.
Now he's just a ghost. I mean, what's going on here?
Is he playing football hard?

Speaker 2 (32:30):
As somebody? With George Pickens in multiple fantasy semis this week.
I am very hopeful, please that he'll return to form,
because it's been awful these last couple of weeks. You're
staring at two people in Breton Donnie who disagree vehement Lee.
They both have the Boys in their top five DP

(32:51):
leader off with the Boys.

Speaker 3 (32:53):
First of all, no passing offense, passing offense, passing offense.
Second of all, you said, if they can keep Justin
Herbert clean. This offensive line for the Chargers is god
fucking awful like and the Chargers offense in general has
looked like dog shit. So how they gonna score points
against Dallas?

Speaker 1 (33:11):
I don't know. I just I know they've been struggling,
but I'd rather buy off They have been playing some
really tough defenses, man, Chiefs at home, and you know,
I just they're just they what they play. Eagles, I'm
trying to I'm blanking on who else they've been play.
They've been playing some some tough defenses, and now they
just get a way easier assignment. Man. I feel like

(33:33):
it's just the market's probably too low on this offense.
But but Dallas's pressure rate is really high.

Speaker 2 (33:38):
So that's the problem is that the charge. The Cowboys
are really good at one thing, and it's defensive line play.
I think the Queennin injury is is massive. So he's
in kincuntry protocol and with a full practice today, he
could go on Sunday. But these spots are very It's

(33:59):
very rare for a player to sustain a concussion and
play again the next week. But maybe the Cowboys have
the special sauce because CD suffered one of the worst
concussions you'll ever see, did the the spade fingers and
it's just laying the next week. So maybe the neurologists
in in Frisco, Texas have something going on that we

(34:22):
don't know about. But Brett Pylon, you two have the Cowboys.

Speaker 4 (34:26):
Yeah, a couple of things for me. First, this is
sitting at one and a half in some places, so
but tomorrow we could be looking at at least a
point of line value, and we know how the contest
values as so the Cowboys are very likely to do
the leverage side, which is crazy to say at this number,
but I think because of the the line movement, the
Dischargers will be the more popular side even if it's
two and a half. Though, haven't people just given up

(34:48):
on this Cowboys team. It's it's so easy to write
them off right now because of how they've looked the
past couple of weeks. George Pickens, no heart, no effort,
they have a little little to play for. Why are
they favored? And I get all that, Like they've burned
me the past two weeks, so I totally understand where
people are coming from with that. But now they're back home,
they're playoff hopes hanging by a thread. This is just

(35:09):
this should be an all in, full throttle effort game
and we can buy them at their lowest price point
in probably like a month. So maybe the Cowboys are lifeless,
but I'm not there yet. This is a desperation game.
I trust their offense, like Donnie said, more than the
current state of the Chargers offense. Too much talent in
the passing game.

Speaker 2 (35:31):
You're not buying a Cowboys playoffs suck.

Speaker 1 (35:35):
Aren't they like zero point two per though they need
like seventeen results in a row to go their way
or something. I thought it was just done. Basically, Basically, you're.

Speaker 2 (35:45):
Saying, there's a chance. All right, I'm up next, and
I've got Brett's beloved the Bills.

Speaker 1 (35:54):
Make me wanna.

Speaker 2 (35:57):
Laying the ten and a half in Cleveland? This cap
is easy. One team has quit, completely quit, and the
other team is trying to win the Super Bowl. Okay,
so give me the team with an MVP level quarterback
who is trying to win the Super Bowl against a
team that was already awful. The Browns were awful and

(36:19):
being held up by an elite defense, but now they've quit.
And on top of that, this is way the wrong number.
This is a fake number. I haven't seen this touch
ten and a half in real life. I'm still seeing
a flat ten. So nobody is going to lay the
ten and a half in the contest with Buffalo. Donnie,
you disagree you've got the Browns in your top five.

Speaker 1 (36:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (36:43):
I mean part of it is the Bills always seem
to start slow, which I think is hard to cover
ten and a half points when you're starting like a
bunch of idiots out there and not scoring any points
and you know all that sort of stuff. I mean,
I think this Browns d still comes to play at home.
I mean, they're just really effing good. Miles Garrett is

(37:07):
just out for blood every single week. I mean, and
if if the Browns can stop cook in this run
game and make the Bills offense more one dimensional, which
I think they very much, can I mean, I know
you're gonna give me the whole the Browns have quit thing,
but I don't know.

Speaker 2 (37:27):
I have a thirty one to the Titans. They're done one, two, three?
Can kun all right?

Speaker 4 (37:36):
Can we can we buy into the narrative that they're
trying to get Miles this sack record though because he's close.

Speaker 2 (37:41):
He can get the sack quicker in the first quarter.

Speaker 1 (37:42):
Crying off for the rest of the season.

Speaker 4 (37:47):
No, Because I mean, he's gonna want to set a
record that's going to be never broken again, right, He's.

Speaker 3 (37:53):
Gonna want to I mean I feel like poetry and
in every week every year, don't we see this every year?
One team done, the other team's playing for the Super Bowl, YadA, YadA, YadA.
Then it's a freaking three point win. Like I mean,
it's like.

Speaker 2 (38:06):
I would agree if they didn't give up thirty to
the Titans two weeks ago.

Speaker 6 (38:10):
Like, yeah, I get it.

Speaker 3 (38:12):
But it's like part of that is, you know, I mean,
the Titans are coming to town. How are you gonna
get up for the Titans? You get up for Josh Allen,
the Bills, the super Bowl contenders, Like, I mean, we
always talk about how at the end of the day,
these guys are human. I mean, we've all played sports,
you know how it is. You see some bums coming
to town, you don't really fucking care. You see the
super Bowl champs possibly coming to town, You're like, let's

(38:35):
fucking go. Like, you know, that's just how these people are.

Speaker 2 (38:38):
This is fair. But don't be surprised if this is
thirty one to three on Sunday last Lone Wolf. It's
dp it's his very last selection. He is taking the
Bears as a pick him at home against the what

(39:05):
you got did?

Speaker 3 (39:06):
But but I basically flipped the coin.

Speaker 2 (39:08):
It's my last pick.

Speaker 3 (39:09):
I mean, there's a lot of injuries on both sides.
I don't even know like with this game. So if
you guys got something important about this one, go ahead and.

Speaker 1 (39:16):
Te I want to know if Brett still thinks the
Packers can win the Super Bowl. I think they're done.
But how could they be done? You seem to think
everybody sucks. Stafford sucks, The suck sucks. So I mean
it's good they all do suck, but just man, the
amount of bodies they've lost is it's true? I thought

(39:37):
they were the best team in the NFL.

Speaker 2 (39:39):
You said everybody's talking about injuries. I don't think people
are talking enough about how the Bears won't have any receivers. Okay,
eighty four percent of the handle is on Chicago.

Speaker 1 (39:50):
Who is playing?

Speaker 2 (39:53):
Something's the kias right is back something.

Speaker 1 (39:57):
Something's to be fair. Every time somebody needs that guy
to make a play, he does it for five years now.

Speaker 2 (40:05):
I mean, this is Moe's rule of you can't run
on an offense just dumping the tight ends and running
backs as good as Ben Johnson is, like, you can't
have functioning offense if you're not throwing the players on
the boundary. So what are the Bears going to employ
offensively on Sunday against the Packers unit, who, even outside

(40:26):
of the ginormous injury to Micah Parsons, have a very
sound defensive unit. They've got some blood in their mouth
after losing last week in tough fashion to the Denver Broncos,
and they've got everything to play for trying to win
the division in the NFC North, plus the other thing

(40:46):
on the defensive side of the ball. We talk about
this a lot rule of NBA Superstar injury. Isn't this
the week where the rest of the guys in the
Packers D line give everything they have to try and
replace Michael Parson's effort. I love the Packers this week.
Brett loves the Packers this week. Also in his doc can.

Speaker 1 (41:08):
We talk about that?

Speaker 4 (41:09):
This has moved five points off the look ahead?

Speaker 1 (41:12):
What? Why?

Speaker 4 (41:13):
What is going on here? So we're it's a pick
in the contest, it's Bear's minus one and a half.
In real life, people are gonna look at that if
it holds by Saturday and just cram the free line
value with Chicago. So I think the Packers are a
great contest play, and in a game that's massive for
both teams with a division title on the line. I'm

(41:33):
gonna take the team that I think is the better
football team, and that to me still even with all
these injuries, is Green Bay. So that's where I landed.

Speaker 2 (41:43):
It'd be nice to get Vaness back in there. He's
got no injury designation, but he's a d MP on Tuesday.
He's been limited these last two days. Of course, this
is a Saturday game, by the way, which means it
is a good thing that we will get the injury
news to Josh Jacobs. I think that's pretty massive for
the Packers offense, but we've seen I don't think a

(42:05):
running back is going to change the line. So in
a perfect world, the Bears remain short favorites and we
get Josh Jacobs active on Saturday. Donnie's got the Bears,
I've got the Bills, Moe's got the Chargers, and Brett
has the Bucks, Ravens, Jags, Steelers, Raiders, cards. All right,

(42:27):
let's make the week sixteen.

Speaker 5 (42:34):
Nine eight, five, four three two one fire.

Speaker 2 (42:47):
I am up first, and you know, sometimes you're listening
to something and you don't know whether or not you
heard it, or you hit the skip button or something
comes up. Listeners' viewers, you did not hit the skip
back fifteen seconds button because I'm selective. The Green Bay

(43:14):
Packers Bred is up next, and I don't love this
One's up.

Speaker 4 (43:23):
Shit, we're going leverage. We're going Philip Rivers and the Colts.
I can be I look, there's another play I like
that we've even talked about yet, So maybe I could.
I have a feeling that also might be the Collective
Pick though, so.

Speaker 2 (43:37):
Yes, it actually is the Collective Pig. Donnie's up next.

Speaker 3 (43:44):
Moe's not gonna like it. I'm going with the Cowboys.

Speaker 2 (43:48):
How about damn Cowboys. Let's go my guy, Quinnin. Take
some smelling salts, get it together. Rush the quarterback, justin Herbert.
I'm so man, my Herbert. One hundred to one interception beat.
I got so excited about two of getting bench. But
then Gino's coming back. I need Geno, Gino. I'm begging you,

(44:11):
my guy, no more intercept all the touchdowns from Mo.
Moe needs touchdowns. Throw throw a million touchdowns, no interceptions. Gino.
All right, we need Herbert. We need Herbert to take
the lead.

Speaker 1 (44:23):
That's like asking Donnie to quit playing Pope.

Speaker 2 (44:28):
All right, Mo, you are up next, and you were
taking a a If we were to told us week sixteen,
we were laying this many points with this team, with
this quarterback, I don't know if anybody would have believed it.

Speaker 1 (44:42):
Well, I feel better now that the only argument you
could muster was that somehow Tyrod Taylor's gonna end up playing.
So yeah, Saints minus five and a half. But I'm
a little bit worried about this one now that it's
moving the right way unfortunately, But it was. But like
I said, it was, it was four and a half
last night. I mean a little bit of juice, like
one fifteen or something, but it was. It was the
other way. So somebody slammed the Saints overnight, I mean,

(45:05):
rightfully so, but I'm with you completely in the sense
of if Tyrod was playing, I would not ever lay
this many points. But I just think that this is
not a real football team anymore. So, I mean, they
just let the Jags do literally whatever they wanted. And
I understand that the Jags are like a pretty good team,

(45:25):
but the Jets, the only thing they had maybe going
for them was Tyrod was like making the offense work
a little bit. Brady Cook is this is impossible. I mean,
he just can't be out there. This is a tank.

Speaker 2 (45:38):
Let's hope so for future Jets equity. All right, let's
get to the collective machine.

Speaker 6 (45:47):
The collective chooses.

Speaker 2 (46:01):
The Washington formerly racial slurs, formerly football team, now comedies.
We what's the that reaction? Oh?

Speaker 1 (46:10):
I thought it was going to be Titans for sure,
so uh yeah, I definitely thought it was gonna be Titans.
Maybe I'll click on Titans then we'll see how okay,
so looking. But that's another obvious anti leverage though, because yes,
just dude, it's it might be two and a half.

Speaker 2 (46:27):
I mean not to skip ahead, because we will discuss
the two consensus picks that did not make the card.
I think the Titans should be favored in that game,
but from a contest perspective, I just couldn't do it.
Let's talk about this game real quick. First of all,
please stay at a flat seven, please please please, I'm
begging you stay at a flat seven because it is

(46:48):
six and a half in the contest. Give us fake
leverage of people buying the Eagles off of a win
against that Raiders team where now they have to travel
to an NFC East Divisional opponent who has been playing
tough to close the season. Here, Marcus Mariota has been
playing fine, and we're just expecting the Super Bowl Eagles

(47:11):
are back, baby, because they trounced the Las Vegas Raiders. No,
it is not true. I'm astonished that this got to
a flat seven. In real life, I think the Commanders
are way the right side. I think this is going
to be way more competitive than people think. And I'm sorry,

(47:32):
I just can't buy this Eagles offense off of their
only good performance of the year. Who wants to pile on?
Who wants to dump on the Eagles?

Speaker 1 (47:45):
H Well, we don't have that much time, so I
don't know if we have time to dump on the Eagles.
But I just want to ask real quick, So, how
does it work if we pick the Saturday games? Donnie?
Do we have to have it just before kickoff?

Speaker 2 (47:57):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (47:57):
And all the picks have to be in.

Speaker 2 (48:00):
Okay, real quick.

Speaker 1 (48:00):
I didn't know if it closed like multiple hours before
like it does on Sundays.

Speaker 2 (48:04):
No, it's like literally so that was like Thursday. Yeah, okay,
real quick. The two games this Titans chiefs mo aren't
the Chiefs just going to pack it in? They've been
playing at max trying to win Super Bowls for multiple years,
and now it's.

Speaker 1 (48:21):
Like, well, yeah, that's the thing. This is like you,
I'm completely with the idea that the Chiefs should be
minus like two and a half three here on merit
of the players on the field. But it's just like
somebody would have to tell me the Chiefs are trying.
I mean, there's so many injured players, there's no reason
for any of them to come back in a dead season.
And then it's just it's just a I mean, professional

(48:47):
pride isn't going to be a thing with these guys
because it's just like they've shown their professional last season.
They have nothing to prove.

Speaker 2 (48:54):
Yeah, like, what does a sleepy game in Tennessee with
absolutely nothing on the line mean? These guys, we've still
and we've seen Chris Jones loaf before, like in Gangs
that matter. What's he gift to a game that's that?

Speaker 4 (49:08):
There's nothing sleepy about Gardner Minshew. He is the is
the wild card.

Speaker 1 (49:13):
I think Gardner Minshew can just win this game. But
I thought that last week too, and then he just
made one of the worst throws you'll ever see in
to just completely blanket coverage.

Speaker 2 (49:22):
The other consensus fect that did not make the car
Get us out of here, DP, Bengals at Dolphins, you're
the one with the Dolphins in your top five. I
wanted to love this, but I just couldn't get there.

Speaker 3 (49:31):
I mean, maybe I'm just reading into this whole Borough
situation way too much, but that guy looks effin miserable
and like he's just like out the door. And I
feel like if any you know, kind of going back
to the Falcons Cardinals thought process a little bit here,
is like if anyone's going to get up for their coach,
I feel like it's the Dolphins weirdly. I mean in
spots they've like weirdly been getting up for Mike McDaniel.

(49:53):
Whereas I can't imagine anyone on that Cincinnati Bengals team,
if you were to give them true serum really like
zech tip.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
I just I refuse to believe it.

Speaker 3 (50:03):
That guy is a total dut so. I mean, I guess,
I mean last night, I didn't check anything this morning
or right or whatever, but what's going on with this
Higgins concussion? I mean, the guy is a walking concussion
at this point, like, so what's going on there? I
think it's a really great spot for Miami to get
this run game back on track. You know, the Bengals
d is just god awful, So there's that as well.

(50:25):
So you know, if Miami's having success in moving the ball,
that's obviously good for them. And they're having success in
moving the ball run running the ball, that's going to
slow the game down and make it harder for for
Insincinnati to be able to cover four and a half.
But I just don't think at this state of the season,
this Bengals team should really merit laying four and a
half on the road.

Speaker 2 (50:43):
I stars only like Quinn, youers.

Speaker 1 (50:49):
Well, Brett, does he meet the threshold?

Speaker 2 (50:53):
Does it matter?

Speaker 3 (50:54):
I've seen Mike he meets the threshold against this defense.

Speaker 2 (50:57):
I've seen Mike McDonald go to Buffalo in the playoffs
with Skyler Thompson and cook up an offense that didn't
burn my retinas, right, that was frisky. So this is
Mike McDonald of Mike McDaniel, who's probably sick and fucking
tired of watching two attack of l go out and

(51:19):
play quarterback. Now get to play in the sandbox. With
a new quarterback against one of the worst defenses in
the NFL. I think this is Dolphins money bat line.
I'll play the sounder to get us out of here.
And as a fan of a team in the AFC East,
the quicker Mike McDaniel the Tanama Division the faster because

(51:40):
I don't want to see this guy get his hands
on a quarterback that is not named Toua. That would
not be fun. Packers, Colts, Cowboys, Saints. Commis at greaton
Gamble for tinkering. Follow these guys on Twitter at Monora
and Uwwarah, at Brett Kelson, CoA Son, and at Donnie
to score Peters. I'm at ritz Y Ryan. Best of

(52:01):
luck in your betting ventures. Need five Oh Peace,