2025 Week 2: Reacting to the Overreaction

The Collective try to bounce back from a 2-3 week in Circa Sports Million by wading through the sea of overreaction, and are clearly undecided on a tough Circa Survivor slate.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
The Welcome Back.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great Aerjambo, the only podcast that puts its money where
its mouth is. I'm your host, rich Ron and I'm
joined by the entire collective the Disciple, Brett Colson, Donnie
DP Peters and joining us from some park in the Bronx.

(00:32):
So he doesn't have any video audio only Mo Noirra.
Mo tried with the frozen coffee and the water bottle
on the bench at a coffee shop, but the video
just wasn't working, so we're just gonna have to deal
with the crisp audio from the the BX up from
the Great City of New York. If you're watching this

(00:54):
on YouTube and unfortunately you can't see Mo's shiny face,
please like the video and some ribe to the channel. Listeners,
rate and review on your podcatcher of choice five stars only,
like Quay Walker Who's Green Bay Packers. Brett's Green Bay
Packers are now two and zero and well on their

(01:16):
way to bring in the trophy back home to Lombardy.
Way we briefly talked about it. But for those that
are unaware about the rules of Circus Sports Million, if
you submit Thursday Night Football, you must submit your entire

(01:37):
five pick card so with guys traveling and capping not
fully complete, it really wasn't a conversation much more so
one text. Everybody's saying no, but it was a consensus
pick from the collective last night. Oh I see you unmute.
What do you got to say?

Speaker 3 (01:56):
Yeah, I'm just wondering when do we become like the
Daniel Nigran of the super of a Circa contest, basically
where we have so much influence that we can text
Benson and be like, change this rule, and then next
year it just gets changed for us, you know what
I mean?

Speaker 2 (02:13):
One day perhaps we got to lean on maybe odb
somebody within the space with a little more cred than us.
This is something I mean, we've discussed internally that the
purest handicapping contest would be something like dynamic lines, where
you have to make ninety picks in a season, but
you're not constrained to making X amount of points picks

(02:37):
per week. But I understand the constraints. I understand as
someone who works in the app world, the challenges when
it comes to having an app environment that can handle
all of this. So in Circa is a great book, right,
These are things that I'm sure they're thinking about and
could be implemented in the future, so didn't have the Packers.

(02:59):
Unfortunate only last night, but looking to find five winners
for week two, we were two and three last week
landed a reverse body blow, but on the good end
we did get all four survivor entries through, but so
did literally everybody else on planet Earth. No carnage and survivor.

(03:19):
Last week, Rich, Rich, myself, Moe and Brett went two
and three. Little uh Ron Burgundy moment there. I'll read
anything that's on the que card. We all meant two
and three last week, man, I was so close to
four and one. Bears and Ravens blown dicks everywhere in primetime.
Brett had the Ravens as well, almost had a body

(03:42):
blow there and DP bringing up the rear at one
and four. All right, time four Week two and we
will start with split games where there are of course
two US on one side and two US on the other.
And we start with a very very interesting game in
the Bayu as the San Francisco forty nine ers traveled

(04:02):
to New Orleans to take on the Saints. The Saints
are three point home dogs in this spot. They were
seven point home Dogs on the look ahead, and that
is because San Francisco forty nine Ers quarterback Rock Purty
will be sidelined with a quote new variant of turf
tow that triggered me that word variant. We're done with

(04:25):
the variants? Can we please God have no more variants.
There are other injuries as well. Of course. Juwan Jennings
picked up a shoulder injury on top of that phantom
calf injury that he was dealing with in the preseason.
On the defensive line, Grossmatos hasn't practiced this week at all.

(04:48):
I am the highest on the Niners. I had the
Niners Power ranked at eight until I got yelled at,
and then I moved them back towards the middle of
the pack. I'm still the highest on the nine. I
don't understand wanting to back the Saints at this number.
The Saints were as bad as advertised last week. Don't

(05:10):
let a last second pass attempt into the end zone
fool you. This was a team that was four yards
per per play in the game. Slow on defense. James Connor,
excuse me. Trey Benson busted off like a fifty yard run,
and guy, it was like the Benny hill music was
playing with Saints' old ass guys trying to run him

(05:31):
down and tackle him. This is thirty two of thirty two.
Nothing about last week changes my mind about that. And
this is rule of backup quarterback for me? Is brock
Purdy worth all of these points coming off of the
key number of seven and then falling all the way
down to another key number of three. I do not

(05:52):
think so. And the most important thing that I saw
last week from the Niners was Bobby Solid's back guys.
This defense was humming up front, specifically against the pass.
And that's literally all Solid cares about. Sala just wants
to run wide nine. If you want to run against us,
that's fine. We'll give up some yards between the twenties

(06:15):
on the ground. We don't care. But when it comes
to defending the pass, the Niners clamp down. Sam Darnold
looked like a pumpkin when it mattered. And what is
Spencer Rattler going to look like against a Bobby Salah defense.
I am very concerned about that.

Speaker 4 (06:32):
MO.

Speaker 2 (06:34):
All that out of the way, you have the New
Orleans Saints in your top five.

Speaker 3 (06:39):
Yeah, just a lot of injuries for the forty nine
ers Kittle obviously as well, you're talking about their best
pass catcher. And then I think when you look back
at last week, I mean, you're dumping on the Saints
pretty hard, but they were never out of it against
a Cardinals team that we think is pretty good. And
then you have a forty nine team that struggled to

(07:02):
put away a Seattle team that I don't think is
very good. So I just I think this line should
maybe be a little bit under three. I maybe was
gonna be if the Saints were at seven, I probably
would have been would have been at seven as well
with Brock Party in the game. So you know, I

(07:22):
just think with the lack of targets, Juwan Jennings looks
like he's not gonna play, I believe, So I just
don't know at this point. It just we've seen two
good games basically in Ricky Piersoll's career, Like, I don't
know if I can count on him to just come
out and help lead this offense.

Speaker 5 (07:37):
This is going to be so many touches for Christian McCaffrey.

Speaker 3 (07:40):
And I did move the Saints up a hair actually,
so they were thirty two out of thirty two. I
moved them up to thirty one, they were competitive. I
think they can keep this reasonable and possibly beat the
forty nine ers at home here.

Speaker 2 (07:56):
Like, I think the Niners can cover scoring seven points
in this game. And you say that they had trouble
putting away the Seahawks. It was two backbreaking interceptions from
Brock Party that caused So why.

Speaker 5 (08:11):
Is mac Jones going to play better? Hold on a second, why?

Speaker 2 (08:14):
Like this is just I don't think Rock Party is
anything but a slightly above replacement level quarterback.

Speaker 1 (08:22):
That's why to be fair Party last week? Like, how
could Mac Jones be any worse than that? Party? Was
terrible last week?

Speaker 2 (08:30):
He was awful, just flat out awful. We moved to
the next contest, a Super Bowl rematch. The Philadelphia Eagles
travel to Kansas City to take on Moe's chefs, and
we get DP involved because he's got the Birds in
his top five.

Speaker 4 (08:52):
I'm concerned about this Chiefs team, especially with no Worthy.
I mean, I like Mahomes, I just I don't know
if he's got the cast around him to be able
to be the superman that he needs to be, especially
in a spot like this. You know, this Eagles team

(09:12):
is very, very good. This Eagles defense specifically is very
very good, And part of me is I feel like
during the Super Bowl, we talked about it leading into
that Super Bowl, you know, we were willing to simply
back Mahomes. At least I was for sure, you know,
because it's Mahomes and you don't go against him. And yeah,

(09:34):
I just I don't know, Man Kelsey's older. These pass
catchers don't look that good. This defense for the Philadelphia
Eagles looks very very good. There would say gonna look
better this week than they did last week. I think
they're also going to improve throughout the season if we
want to look down the road, because they're a little
bit on the younger side. And I mean, the Eagles

(09:58):
can move the rock. Yeah we might not I necessarily
love Jalen Hurts, but they get the thing done. I mean,
you know, it doesn't necessarily need to look pretty, and
I don't think that they give two shits about looking pretty.
But I think they can move the ball here. So
I like the Eagles here. I think they're rightfully favored
in this spot. I cannot remember the last time the

(10:18):
Chiefs were dogs at home, which is pretty wild to
even just think about and put into actual words. But yeah,
I'm on Philly here.

Speaker 2 (10:25):
I and the other host that's on Philadelphia, but it
is extremely low. The reason why I'm on the Eagles
is the main thing, the first thing that Donnie said there,
and it's just who is catching the ball for the
Chiefs in this game. They're so desperate that they're talking
about Xavier Worthy playing with a brace on. This guy

(10:47):
is already playing pro football at like one hundred and
sixty five pounds. Now you're going to try him out
there in a brace and hope he holds up. In
CTE Murder Ball, were alarmingly bad defending the pass in
Sal Paulo against the Chargers. I think it's fair to
throw out most of that game because it's a game

(11:08):
that happened in Brazil. So I honestly think my favorite
look in this game, and it's a bet I made
while I was capping this morning. I took the under
on forty seven. I think these are two grindy teams
that people don't think are grinding teams. The Eagles struggle
to defend with the run against the Cowboys. I think
the Chiefs will see that and want to cram the ball.

(11:29):
Andy loves cramming the ball, especially in the regular season,
and the Eagles always love cramming the ball. That's their
identity running with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. So I
think this is going to be a low scoring, grindy game.
Don't have much an opinion on the side Mo does. However,
MO loves his beloved Kansas City Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (11:50):
First off, let me just open by saying, I want
to implore everybody if you're betting this game, wait until
Worthy is announced out hopefully for the Chiefs and hopefully
to two and a half, hopeful three, and you can Chiefs, what.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
Is the offense going to look like? If there's no
Xavier Worthy, Mom.

Speaker 3 (12:14):
It's still Patrick Mahomes with bums. He won a Super
Bowl with bums. Guys, He's going to be fine. Hollywood
Brown caught one hundred yards worth of passes like it's
going to be fine. It's the Chiefs at home against
a mediocre quarterback.

Speaker 2 (12:32):
Did you think it looks fine on Friday night on
YouTube with mister BEA's running around when you were texting us,
oh and seventeen.

Speaker 3 (12:41):
It's gonna be It's a mediocre quarterback coming into Arrowhead.
Wasn't anybody getting Eagles after their last coordinators left. Vibes
of that first game. That offense was really ugly, guys,
it was really slow. It was uninspiring.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
Yeah, they looked very confused. No Aj Brown getting involved
that guy. I mean, there has to be just a
mandatory number of targets that go Eleven's way. And if
like I would be reading books on the sideline too,
my guy, if the plan was not to get me
the football, Brett, you wanted to make a point, Yeah, I.

Speaker 1 (13:21):
Just agree with Mo. Like I agree with Mo. The
thing with the past catchers is like, yes, I feel
it's it's not great that these receivers are out, But
I feel much better about Mahomes without receivers than I
do about Mahomes without an offensive line that can protect him.
Mahomes is just so good at improvising and taking what's
given to him that, like most said, like he won

(13:41):
a Super Bowl without any receivers. Rahie Rice finally like
started to come together during the playoff run. But I
mean they were there without anything around him, and that's
why he went IVP that year. I get the same
vibes this year. He's just he looked great on Friday.
It was not Mahomes. Mahomes was not the reason they
lost that game on Friday Night. I think I think
this line's fair. I think the Chiefs are at a

(14:01):
pretty good spot to rebound.

Speaker 2 (14:04):
We moved to our final split game, a battle of cats,
as the Jacksonville Jaguars travel north to Ohio to take
on the Bengals. The Bengals are three and a half
point favorites in CIRCA and we returned to DP, who
has the highest opinion on this game, and he's once

(14:24):
again laying the wood, this time with the home team,
looking for the Bengals with a bounce back.

Speaker 4 (14:30):
Yeah, I mean, I think the Jaguars win last week
was a little bit paper tigery in some ways. I mean,
I wanted to like Bryce Young coming into the season.
I wanted to give the Panthers some improvement points coming
into the season. Talked about it when we did the

(14:52):
props pot, and you know, I picked Bryce Young to
go some overs. But I mean they looked bad. There
was like this weird weather delay, wasn't there. I mean, listen,
I you know, fully transparent. I did not watch any
damn football because I was hanging out with Mickey and
Mini Mouse. But other than that, you know, I tried
to catch up with things where I could, you know,

(15:14):
like the weather delay kind of I feel like maybe
messed with things a little bit there, messes with your flow.
I don't know how I would react if I was
an athlete all of a sudden, you know, you're basically
sitting around twiddling your thumbs for a half hour, an hour,
whatever the heck is. So yeah, I feel like after
that that they weren't that great, the Panthers, and it
didn't look like they were that great at all in general.

(15:35):
So you know, if you want to talk about those
power ringings, I dropped them to the bottom and moved
the Saints ahead of them.

Speaker 2 (15:41):
After that week.

Speaker 4 (15:42):
And so I don't know how much stock I can
put into this Jaguars team against that defense now the Bengals.
I think if I don't give a lot of stock
to the Jaguars now coming off that week one, I
think this is a decent get right spot for the Bengals.
Also in a spot where I don't really think anyone's

(16:03):
going to really be on them in the contest. I mean,
in my opinion, what Brett. You're you're always the guy here,
and you always make these fucking faces when I say that.
I never try and read it. But I'm just telling
you that that's my honest.

Speaker 2 (16:14):
Opinion because I'm seeing fifty to fifty handle right now.
So I don't know why there would be a strong openings, so.

Speaker 1 (16:19):
We could go either way.

Speaker 4 (16:20):
I mean, I just read that the Bengals always start slow, right.
They had a stupid game in Week one. They scored
with what they have in the second half seven yards
of passing. I saw it, like well or offense totally.

Speaker 5 (16:32):
They had like one hundred and fifty yards total.

Speaker 4 (16:34):
Yeah, Like, so are people really just going to be
clicking them laying three and a half against the Jaguars,
who you know, if you're just going to look at
like box scores, feel like they handled the Panthers pretty well.
I mean, I don't know. I'm going to fade the
Jaguars here. I'm going to try and buy back in
on the Bengals and specifically this Bengals offense. And I mean, listen, yeah,
there's a bit of concern with this Bengals defense and

(16:56):
the offensive line. I get it, but I'm just going
to back borrow here kind of blind league in a
spot that I think is pretty good for them overall,
and they're just going to write the ship.

Speaker 2 (17:05):
But I'll get to you in a second, because you
have the highest opinion on Jacksonville. But Mo, you set
up this scenario in the preseason. You said you hope
the Jags win by margin in Week one so you
could back up the brinkstruck on the Bengals, and then
you clicked the Jaguars. So I needed I needed an explanation.

Speaker 5 (17:25):
Oh, I didn't think the Bengals were going to be
that bad.

Speaker 1 (17:28):
I mean that.

Speaker 2 (17:32):
Defense, It's Week one Bengals, that's predictive. Just throw it.

Speaker 3 (17:35):
Out against a Browns defense that I'm already said I
don't really think is that great.

Speaker 5 (17:43):
I don't know, man, I.

Speaker 3 (17:46):
Didn't think the Bengals played well, and I'm seriously concerned
about that team.

Speaker 2 (17:50):
All right, Brett pick up the torch for Jacksonville.

Speaker 1 (17:54):
Well, I am really curious what the contest does with
this game. After last week Jacksonville with the blowout win,
maybe people that this is a sleeper playoff team this season.
They are maybe even better than the Bengals. But Cincinnatis
historically a contest Darling, and I do wonder if people
look at this as an obvious rebound spot at home
week one behind them against the division rival. I do

(18:16):
think the Bengals are going to get a decent amount
of love here just because people loved taking this offense.
This like firepower offense. This is typically a spot where
I would just be on the team that looked horrible
last week, and like this is a two point move
off the look ahead. But I just don't value the
Bengals as a good team, so I had this as
a pretty fair line, and if I do think there's

(18:37):
maybe a little leverage, I do think the Bengals are
going to be a little more popular than the Jags here.
So that's really where I ended up and why I
was on the Jaguars.

Speaker 2 (18:45):
All right, split games in the rear view, Let's get
to some lone Wolves. Eight lone Wolves this week. Donnie
and I both have a trio, and we'll start with DP,

(19:08):
who continues to hate the team in his backyard, laying
three and a half points on the road with the
visiting Los Angeles Chargers against his now Las Vegas Raiders.

Speaker 4 (19:23):
Didn't I pick the Raiders last week. What are you
talking about, like just making up narratives. Man, it's unbelievable.
I liked what the Raiders put together on offense. I
think having Geno Smith in a lot of play action
does play to his strength and allow him to thrive

(19:44):
better than not. This Raiders offensive line looks greaty freaking back.
I mean one obviously here is you know. I mean
I think brock Baber was gonna play, but obviously Mont
show that injury. And yeah, I just the offensive line.
I know they went into New England and the and

(20:05):
they beat the Patriots, but you know, just like I
talked about with the Jaguars over the Panthers, I mean,
are the Patriots really that good? I don't know. It's
kind of like the Raiders offense looked all right against
a team that probably is a bottom five team. I mean, like,
what do you want me to say? And this Chargers team,

(20:25):
I mean they played well. Justin Herbert played well. He
looked good and if he keeps playing like this, then
they're going to be a pretty big force in the
league this season, I think. And there's going to be
a lot of people that we're going to have to
hear from those justin Hubert Herbert Truthers are just gonna,
you know, be jamming it down our throat all day.

(20:46):
The Chargers offensive line, I know we had questions after
that Slater injury. They looked all right in week one.
You know, probably a little bit of a different animal
this week going up against Max Crosby. Yes, but you know,
I'm probably gonna be on the Raiders in a lot
of spots to expect them to be frisky. I just think,
you know, while I did like what they showed on

(21:07):
offense in Week one, the Chargers are a superior team here,
and I really do worry about that Raiders offensive line,
and that's where it all starts. So yeah, I'm on
the charters.

Speaker 2 (21:15):
Like you said, Brock Bauers injury the biggest aspect of
this game. Pete Carroll seems very confident that Bawers is
going to play in this game. I've been the highest
amongst the collective on the Raiders throughout the preseason. I'm
currently the highest in power rankings. Brett's been putting together
our power rankings every week. I've got them fifteenth in
the league, and this is just a sell spot off

(21:39):
of Quinn Johnson looking like Jerry Rice and the Los
Angeles Charters scoring almost every time they touched the ball.
Justin Herbert kind of a coming out party after a
lot of people have poop pooed his excellence over the
last couple of years. They saw it come to Fruisan
and the Dub and they're like, oh, this guy's pretty good,
as if they've just not been watching football of late.

(22:01):
But what if the Raiders are just good? Right? What
if the Raiders are just a top half football team
that scraps their way to like a nine win season.
If that's the case, then the Chargers being three and
a half point road favorites in this spot is ludicrous, right.
So the fact that it moved off of the three

(22:23):
on the look ahead and the Chargers got that half
point of value, I'm scooping that up. And with the
Chargers being fifty four percent of the handle right now,
I'm curious as to how the contest is going to
handle this because it is a very valuable half point.
So I am a little worried that the Raiders might
show some love the local Vegas Raiders, But I just

(22:46):
think this is an obvious spot. I've got them in
my account as well. I have a sprinkle on money
bet line Mo. You two love the Raiders pylon.

Speaker 3 (22:57):
Yeah, I'm not going to move all the way off
of my Chargers pre season position that I don't think
this is a great team because they came out played
a great game against the Chiefs, a team that they
often play great games against and a team that they
everybody plays great games against.

Speaker 5 (23:12):
Like, let's be honest, the Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
You know, they're coming off a huge win on national
TV that everybody watched, where they played a really strong game.
You mentioned Johnston, I mean what about Keenan Allen just
back from the absolute dead. I mean a guy who
the year.

Speaker 2 (23:32):
I don't know what this narrative is. Keenan commanded like
a twenty six percent target chere last year. It's just
that Kayleb Williams is just an awful quarterback.

Speaker 3 (23:42):
A team desperate for offense just was like totally fine
letting him walk.

Speaker 2 (23:46):
But Loveland, why would they keep the corpse of Keenan Allen?

Speaker 3 (23:54):
Well, I guess we're gonna find out if he's a
corpse or not, or if he was just torching a
Chief seen that was half asleep for the first half.
But yeah, I think that this Raiders offense is way
too good to be three and a half point dogs here.
I don't believe in this defensive front for the Chargers.
I was very surprised that the Chiefs couldn't run the ball.

(24:15):
But even if the Raiders can't really pound the rock here,
I think Gino's going to find some space downfield against
a secondary that I don't think is really all that
great either. And yeah, it's Gino indoors at home getting
three and a half points. This is just crazy to me.
I mean, a worst case scenario, they're down ten, the

(24:36):
back door should be open here.

Speaker 2 (24:37):
Keenan is going to be able to beat zone until
his legs discontinue to function. My guy just knows how
to do it. Dp's so yeah, dp's two other lone
wolves are both low, so it's going to be more
about the other side of the game. But he's got
the Vikings laying three and a half at home against

(25:00):
the Falcons. Talk about Minnesota, dB, I mean, I don't
have much to say here other than to me, this
is the field play. In the fact that I was
questioning if JJ McCarthy could lead this team, you know,
we talked about how this roster is really really good,
and simply put, they went out and got a win

(25:21):
in Week one, and I think there's gonna be a
lot of eye in there, you know, and when you
have that much talent around you, I think it can
go a long way. So I'm kind of just going
to blindly back this team right now. As you said,
it is, it is low, you know. I guess there's
a chance J. J. McCarthy obviously is just falls off.
But if he can just be serviceable with the team

(25:44):
that's around him, I think this team is going to
be fine throughout the course of the season. So yeah,
Brett's got the highest opinion on the Traveling Falcons. They
bubbled his stuff. Oh no, they're in your top five.

Speaker 1 (25:55):
Excuse me, Oh yeah, They're definitely in my top five.
I mean originally when this week started, it was the
Falcons injury report that was concerning entering the week, But
now it seems like Mooney and London are trending towards playing,
which is huge in the lines. Moving again, with that news,
several key injuries to watch for for the Vikes. Christen
Darrisaw who didn't play Week one, practice Wednesday, but then

(26:18):
was downgraded to limited Thursday. Never liked to see that,
although maybe that was part of the plan. Who knows.
Definitely gonna watch that one on Friday. Andrew Van Ginkle
a huge piece of this Vikings defense. That's a big one.
He needs to be cleared for a concussion before he
can play on Monday. This is just one of those
Week two overreaction spots. I feel like between a team

(26:43):
that probably should have won last week and lost and
the other team that probably should have lost last week.
In one, metrics pointed to Atlanta deserving to beat the Bucks.
They looked like the better team to me, but the
Bucks were slightly better on downs that mattered, and as
we know, that is everything and we only have a
one game sample to use so far for the season.

(27:05):
I do don't forget special teams. Yeah too, that was,
but that's predictive. Young Waikoub being a corpse is predictive. Now, Yeah,
he'll be the.

Speaker 2 (27:15):
Place kicker in this game for the Atlanta Falcons.

Speaker 1 (27:19):
Still hurts, But yeah, I do expect Pennix and in
this offense to be very good, and the hope is
that they improve on third and fourth down as the
season goes forward. Meanwhile, Minnesota's offense was just completely enough
for three quarters last week, and all people remember and
talk about is the way McCarthy looked in the fourth quarter.
I really like this team, but I see this as

(27:40):
a good spot to sell them off the primetime win
that they could have easily lost to Caleb Williams. So
I think I think the Falcons win. The hook are
the player.

Speaker 2 (27:50):
I'm officially concerned about the Falcons. I came into this
week wanting to find every reason to love the Vikings,
but the injury report, as Brett noted, is the reason
why I switched my ex over from Minnesota to Atlanta,
specifically because the way Flores runs this defense, he needs
those key components like Van Ginko on the field because
there is so much communication going on that if there

(28:12):
is miscommunication, all these exotic mug looks that fall back
into deep two's like it could be an absolute disaster
if there's miscommunication, And if anyone's going to take advantage
of it, it's Pennix who is willing to chuck the
ball downfield. Although his A dot was mysteriously low in
this game, I don't know if that is a consorted

(28:33):
effort against the Bucks, or they were unable to hold
up against the pressure or why.

Speaker 1 (28:39):
Well, I'll Ali had to do was dump it up
to Bijon for a fifty yard play.

Speaker 2 (28:43):
So right, And that's another reason. But that's another reason
why I'm kind of concerned about the Falcons. I thought
that offense really stunk last week, right outside of one
Bijon Electric amazing play, like they're a Pennix Superman reach
away from losing that game by perhaps an even larger margin.

(29:03):
And this recouped defensive line that spent so many assets
in the offseason was thirty first in pressure rate last
week with Tristan Wurf's out for Tampa Bay. If you
can't get pressure on JJ McCarthy the way KOC dials
up this offense, I think they might just cook against

(29:24):
this Falcons team. So yeah, I two am on the Falcons,
but much much lower the other lone wolf, the last
lone wolf for DP. We've got him laying the wood
with the Arizona Cardinals at home against the Carolina Panthers.
This is a full seven in the contest TV.

Speaker 4 (29:48):
Well, if I want to consider them for survivor, I
can't honestly put a check mark next to the Panthers. Therefore,
I am clicking the Cardinals and I'm sticking them at
the bottom of my cart, and we will likely discuss
this later on the pod.

Speaker 2 (29:58):
Funny, it's so funny say that, because I've had some
survivor thoughts all week and that led me to click
a lone wolf as well, that we'll get to so
I understand your sentiment fully. The market is telling me
I'm an idiot because one of the first bets I
made this week was Carolina plus six and a half

(30:20):
and I put a third of the unit on the
money bet line as well. Why are we Why are
we reacting so strongly to what we saw last week
on both sides here? Carolina of course got their butt kicked,
But like DP said, with Jacksonville, weird game, weather delay,

(30:44):
snowballed out of place, the left tackle was missing because
his appendix burst earlier in the week. He's back at
practice ikey Akuanu. It just seemed like it could have
just been chaos for Carolina, which might not be the
case this week. And then why are we giving the
Cardinals credit for barely holding on against thirty two of

(31:05):
thirty two, Spencer Rattler almost going in for the game time,
So who are at the end for Juwan Johnson. I
think this is a crazy overreaction. Eighty two percent of
the handle is still on Arizona, even with the line
climbing and climbing and climbing. So I wanted to love
the Panthers this week. The market told me I'm an idiot,

(31:27):
So I took this down to the middle, and I
have the strongest opinion on Carolina. So unless one of
you guys wants to speak up, we can move on.
I'm seeing a no from Maura Buck.

Speaker 1 (31:38):
We'll talk more about the Cardinals later.

Speaker 2 (31:40):
Yes, we will. The survivor's segments. Very fascinating game in
the desert. Okay, let's go to myself. I also have
a trio of lone Wolves, and we'll start with the
greatest football TEAMATES team. I got cute last week, guys,
I got real cute after banging the drum off season

(32:01):
saying that Mike McDaniel would be fired by Halloween. I
put an X next to the Dolphins because everybody else
thought the same thing, and I just had this contrarian
itch that I had to scratch when I should have
just faded the Dolphins like everybody else on the planet.
This team is horrific. I think they're in store for

(32:22):
another ass kicking this week. You look at the injury report,
this is absolutely rule of MO. Something called storm Duck
has not practiced this week due to an ankle injury.
Starting cornerback for the Miami Dolphins. If something Storm Duck
can't suit up, who is his backup? Terrifying, terrifying stuff

(32:47):
for Miami. Doing my capping this morning, you know what
I fired, I fired over forty three. I think there's
gonna be points in this game because who is Miami
going to stop if they're giving up that many points
to the Colts and the Colts take their foot off
the gas towards the end of the game. I think

(33:07):
Miami can find ways to score to keep the scoring
going in this game. But I'm with the droolers here.
Everyone's gonna be on the Patriots. I'm lining up with them.
This Dolphins team, it's done. It's over DP. How could
you put Miami in your top five? It's over.

Speaker 4 (33:27):
Rule of team that worked the look the absolute worst
last week.

Speaker 5 (33:31):
Thank you, Donnie.

Speaker 4 (33:32):
I mean this is a fairly soft spot against the
Patriots team that didn't exactly look that great themselves. And listen,
we can say what we want from Miami. I'm super
down on them too. They do have some talent on
the roster. I mean, like they could explode for a
game or two here. And it's not like the Patriots
are exactly freaking world beaters. You know, Drake May didn't

(33:54):
even look that well in a week one. So yeah,
I mean, listen, Miami's not gonna go h to seventeen.
I'm sorry, like I'm sorry, sorry to burst everyone's bubbles.
So this is probably one of their few wins. I
don't think there's gonna be many wins. But come on,
this is this is as good of a bounce back
spot as you're going to get. You get to go home,
you get the crappy Patriots, Like, I mean, come on, man,

(34:18):
And I was gonna click Miami. Seriously, who in the
universe is gonna click this sting? That doesn't that doesn't
mean it's a good decision. We you said, who look
the worst? You've got them ranked twenty eighth, so they're
damn near the worst.

Speaker 2 (34:29):
In the league.

Speaker 3 (34:30):
Yeah, but I don't think the Patriots are that much better,
just like I think the Dolphins better than two and
a half whatever it might be, two two and a half.
I think I have to click them. I mean, they
they still have talent on offense. They're like Donnie said,
I mean, Donnie made a lot of good point that
they're not just this isn't the worst team ever where
They're just gonna come out and lay down get crushed

(34:52):
every game. I mean, and yeah, you just this is
just click the team that looked the worst last week, man,
and it's against a team that I just I'm on
the reck. I don't believe in under seven and a
half wins. Great start for that last week, losing a
home game to the Raiders. I don't, guys, we still
have no idea if Drake May is good. Like we
know Tua can move the ball in this offense.

Speaker 2 (35:13):
Trust me. I was one of the lowest people on
the Patriots in the preseason process. I thought their win
total was ridiculously high. That being said, I think the
Dolphins are just that bad and I think it's going
to crater. I mean, Tyreek was crashing out at two

(35:34):
point fifteen pm Eastern time in week one, like, what
is he going to do if the Patriots, I mean
he is, He's like plus three point fifty to Antonio Brown,
take your shirt off and leave the stadium. Like this
is within the range of outcomes for Tyreek in one
of these games, this next one, this is my survivor

(35:55):
click brain, and you know what I'm gonna I'm slapping
myself on the wrist because one of the first seasons
we did this show Moe in this exact spot, I
think it was Falcons at Titans. Falcons were minus four,
Matt Ryan outside on the road, and Moe brought up

(36:17):
the point everybody's gonna wake up hungover on Sunday. Do
I still have money in that account? Oh? Put it
on the Falcons favorites in Tennessee, and I put an
X next to Rams minus five and a half in
Tennessee because the Rams, spoiler alert, are my survivor Lean

(36:37):
this week. And I was like, if they're gonna be
my survivor Lean, how could I take plus and a
half five five and a half with the Titans. But
I think if you do look at this injury report
with JC Latham not practicing, Quandre Diggs not practicing, the
state of the Titans pass catchers last week in Denver.
I think we are a couple weeks away from this

(36:59):
Tennessee offense melding a little bit and getting their stuff
together against a Rams defense which is very good that
gave the Houston offense a lot of fits last week.
There were eighth and adjustin Sachery last year last week
LA And yes, I'm worried about the Sennaity defense and

(37:22):
their own pressure and pass rush against a statue that
is Matthew Stafford. But kind of like that Niners Saints game.
I think the Rams can get to this number in
a low scoring game because I just don't know how
the Titans are going to put together efficient offensive possessions.
Brett disagrees he's got the Titans in his top five.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
Yeah, I mean, look, this is another tough matchup for
cam Ward, certainly, but this time he's not playing on
the road in hostile conditions at altitude. He was terrible
last week, well, the entire offense was terrible. Team had
certainly led him down terrible. His coach let him down time.

Speaker 2 (38:00):
But that's the problem is Brian Callahan is going to
let him down every single week. That he has a
headset on. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (38:08):
I mean he's got a full game of lessons to
pull from coming off a disappointing debut last week, for sure.
But there's a decent chance this Titans team is still
being undervalued by the market, even after getting a cover
last week. People look at the raw offensive numbers and
the point total last week and they draw the conclusion
that this offense is hopeless. But like you guys said,

(38:29):
there was some good stuff from Ward. I mean, he
was flinging it. It looked good out of his hands,
and yeah, his pass catchers let him down, and his
entire offense really let him down. I can't believe that
hen't challenged the I Am an or catch that was
rolled out of bounds. Like that's the kind of stuff
where you lose faith in a coach. But I still
think there's enough here, and there were enough positives against

(38:49):
an elite Broncos defense on the road for me to
back Tennessee here at home. And even more, this defense
is solid. Bow Knicks was dreadful last week, and all
bow Knicks did last year was beat up bad defenses.
It's clear that this is not a bad defense. Seventh
in success rate, for this defense last week fifth and
epa per play, they forced four turnovers. I don't expect

(39:11):
this to be a walkover from Matt Stafford and Sean McVay.
I think that the Titans are a pesty team probably
every week, and potentially an underdog cover machine. Which I
say this one year after they broke my heart week
after week last year. But I do think that there's
something there with the Titans where I think there's gonna
be value on this team every week.

Speaker 2 (39:31):
I will definitely be on the Titans later in the season,
I think, but I still fair the season is very young. Honestly,
I don't think they will because his tenure has been
so short. But if they can Callahan, then I think
I'll be even more intrigued by the Tennessee tit.

Speaker 3 (39:48):
He did the worst coaching job of any coach last week.
I'm not kidding when I say that that was incredibly
awful work.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
It feels like abra Flus and Caleb Williams all over again,
Like you invest in a new quarterback who needs nurturing,
who needs the right type of coaching around him, and
you just don't have it, and it just could be
a completely wasteful year if you don't have that marriage
correct my last one battle of some roars hoops, pressing

(40:21):
incorrect buttons. As the Bears travel to Detroit to take
on the Lions, Lions are minus five and a half.
I quite literally flipped a coin in this game, and
it came up by the Lions off of that dreadful
divisional loss. And don't yet buy into Ben Johnson, who,

(40:43):
outside of one scripted drive, looked kind of mid because
his quarterback is still Caleb Williams, who just might not
be it. DP disagrees strongly, not strongly, but has the
Bears close to this card.

Speaker 4 (41:01):
I mean, I worry about this alliance. I mean, how
can you not that. I don't think that. I think
that the concern we had come into the season about
the coordinators leaving, I don't know. It's obviously a small
sample size, but looks to be somewhat legit to an extent.
I mean, can they move the ball here?

Speaker 2 (41:21):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (41:22):
Five and a half is a lot that cerl in
the season. I hate this game in general, I guess.
I guess at the end of the day, I kind
of just took the points. I'm not really thrilled to
be backing Caleb Williams either, But yeah, and the other
thing is, like, you know, if anyone knows the Lions
team in and out, it's obviously got to be Johnson, right,

(41:44):
So yeah, this is kind of just like I'm just
going to click on the coach going to come up
against this former team that is now without him, and
they look like they're struggling a little bit without him.

Speaker 6 (41:54):
So yeah.

Speaker 2 (41:55):
The other thing is, isn't Dan Campbell quintuple circling this
game the guy who left the guy who left for
a divisional opponent? There might be some real champion at
the bit this week in the Motor City. To kick
Ben Johnson's ass in his first game in Detroit, we

(42:19):
go to Brett, whose only lone wolf is in his
top five. As he's lining up, I'm seeing with seventy
one percent of the handle to lay two and a
half points at home with the Houston Texans. My buttons
are star.

Speaker 1 (42:40):
I'm shocked that I'm a lone wolf here. I talk
a lot of crap about this Texans offense, and that
talk was backed up by a pitiful performance last week.
But this defense is still potentially top three in the league.
Definitely top five defense in the league. I thought they
were playing the best defense in the entire league at
the end of last season, and it looked very good
last week against the Rams two second in the league

(43:01):
in adjusted lineyards, tenth in the EPA per play. I
guess say good Rams offense. Meanwhile, the Bucks offense was
not good last week. Mayfield was terrible and people will
remember the Iguka highlight reel and his coming out party,
but they were twenty eighth in offense success rate only
four point six yards per play. They got out gained

(43:21):
by the Falcons last week by I think point four
yards per play, and that's coming against a Falcons defense that,
like you said, rich only, I mean, they brought in
a bunch of young pieces that did not get any
pressure last week, and this is a much stiffer test
for Baker Mayfield. There are reports that both Godwin and
Wurf's could play this week, which kind of blew my

(43:43):
mind yesterday because I did not see that coming. So
I'm going to be monitoring that pretty closely on Friday.
We might not have all the info on that before
Circle picks Lock tomorrow, but even still, like how effective
were these guys going to be against the top tier defense.
Is Tristan wurf set eighty percent better than Graham Barton
a left tackle? Yeah, probably, but he's still lining up
against Daniel Hunter and Will Anderson. He would have his

(44:05):
hands full if he was one hundred percent. And if
Wurf's is out, he's now got a center playing left
tackle against this elite unit. Barton's a good center, But like,
let's be real hair and be honest about where the
advantages are in this matchup.

Speaker 5 (44:20):
If Wurf's is out.

Speaker 1 (44:21):
Again, this is a stock high stock low spot by
the Texans while the offense is bottomed out. Last week,
the offensive line faced a great Rams front. That is
not the case this week. The Bucks typically have to
blitz to get pressure. So I think Stroud and Nico
have a strong week through the air and the Texans
get it done with defense against a Bucks offense that

(44:44):
I think is regressing back towards where they should be.

Speaker 2 (44:47):
So is this just a pure matchup thing because you
have the Bucks power ranked higher than the Texans? Okay, yes, yeah,
I think generally this line is just fair. What leaned
me towards the Bucks more is just I think this
game is an under candidate. I actually I told the

(45:08):
Discord that I was in going to tease this week,
and I broke my role already. In Week two, it's
Bucks and the under. Bucks up to eight and a
half with the under of forty nine. Because, like you,
I have just as many questions about the Bucks offense
after last week, but I have just as many questions
about the Houston Texans offense with that offensive line and

(45:31):
absolutely no running game whatsoever. Still cramming Nick Chubb, something
o Goombwalle playing meaningful reps at running back this, I.

Speaker 1 (45:44):
Think he's done. I think Dari is over.

Speaker 2 (45:47):
Yeah, I think that thing is cooked too. Houston is
at its best when Nico is running deep crossers and
beating people in the intermediate deep the field, and the
guys that Houston drafted in Higgins and Knowle are field
stretchers in their own right. But in order to stretch

(46:09):
the field, you gotta protect up front. So maybe this
is just gonna be a lot of high leveraged spots
where if the Bucks are blitzing Brett, Yeah, maybe you're right.
Maybe if the Texans can pick up and Stroud can
hit those those big plays, then Houston might be in
order here, but I don't know. I just see I
see a really grindy game where I'm just gonna lean

(46:32):
towards the dog, but nobody really has a strong opinion
on the Bucks in opposition. Mo, you round us out.
You were laying three points with Aaron Rodgers at home
against the Hawks, They're in the middle of your card.
Talk about Pittsburgh.

Speaker 3 (46:52):
Yeah, just a situation where I know a lot of
people were dumping on Aaron Rodgers last week and I
saw some pretty poor sacks for that he took. But
these injuries in the Seattle secondary are really piling up, guys.
I mean there's like like three corners out now. I mean,
if we count Devin Wetherspoon has a corner. I know

(47:13):
he's kind of like play some nickel and whatnot. So yeah,
I just I'm I don't know what is left in
this back end for the Seahawks. So if that's the case,
and we know how I feel about Sam Darnold playing
under pressure, possibly against a good pass rush here, you know,
offensive line that I just don't believe in at all,

(47:35):
So it.

Speaker 5 (47:36):
Just seems like a pretty bad spot.

Speaker 3 (47:38):
I had this at three and a half, so I
do think the Steelers are a hair undervalued here. I
know that I have these teams power ranked close, but yeah,
the Seattle injuries in their secondary plus the what I
think is a mismatchup front has me thinking maybe the
Steelers should be three and a half point favorites here.

Speaker 2 (47:57):
Neither Witherspoon nor em and Worry have practiced this week
in that secondary, and then yesterday Julian Love was downgraded
from a limited participant to a DNP.

Speaker 3 (48:08):
Man.

Speaker 2 (48:09):
I entered this game wanting to be on your side mode,
wanting to love the Steelers, but as a Jets fan,
I think one of my biggest fears is that, like TJ,
Watt is just dust and the Steelers defense isn't what
everyone thinks it is, and that's one of the reasons
why the Jets were able to feast last week. And

(48:31):
if that's the case, they can just never be three
point favorites in this spot. Low total, I'm on the
under here. I got under forty and a half, so
if I'm thinking low total, I'm gonna lean towards the dog,
but not as strongly as Brett Colson, who has Seattle
in his top five.

Speaker 1 (48:48):
This is very much a contest play. This is the
This is the classic Stockeye Stock low potential leverage spot
for Seattle. It looks Seattle this offense was anemic in
Week one. There are major concerns with the offensive line
and Sam Darnold. But to me, you also have to
sell Aaron Rodgers off that four touchdown game last week.
What a weird game that was. I still can't believe

(49:11):
the Steelers won that game, just having watched it. I
don't know that we'll ever see an Aaron Rodgers game
like that again. So I'm fully on board the selling
of the Rodgers and again and again, like Pittsburgh, another
contest Darling. I feel like people are going to be
back on the Steelers this week, So I think this
is a potential for really nice leverage in the contest

(49:31):
for Seattle.

Speaker 2 (49:32):
The biggest bull case for Seattle in this spot, if
you could ignore those secondary injuries, is that Seattle was
third in pressure rate in the NFL last week and
twenty fourth in blitz rate. Rogers was absolutely terrified of
pressure last week. Tried to throw the game away, throwing
the ball right at Brandon Stevens, who unfortunately was wearing
the wrong cleats, fell down and dropped a football thrown

(49:56):
directly at him. The narrative changes completely if the game
ends on that play as opposed to a sixty can
we this is something I've just been losing my mind
about this week. Chris Boswell is an amazing place kicker,
but we're like normalizing the fact that this dude on
the road outdoors his sixty yard field goal to win

(50:18):
the game. The Jets were fully aware of his career,
long fully aware of where they wanted to stop. The
Steelers on that drive executed what they wanted to execute.
But the guy just kicked the ball one hundred yards
through the goal post. So yeah, the Steelers Tomlin Voodoo
undefeated remained so and we'll see, well, it'll be put

(50:39):
to the test again in a week two. What's up?

Speaker 5 (50:41):
I speak speaking of special teams and kicking.

Speaker 3 (50:46):
At what point do we start getting concerned about McDonald's
McDonald after what the he straight up said, their models
say okay, we need to go here, and then he
tried to kick and it just ended up being a disaster,
or like, maybe this guy doesn't have it, guys.

Speaker 2 (51:04):
Defensive coaches alarms are always up with defensive coaches. I've
got the Patriots, Rams and Lions. Dp's got the Chargers,
Vikings and Cardinals. Spreads on the Texans, moves on the Steelers.
Let's make a winning card for week.

Speaker 5 (51:23):
Two nine eight.

Speaker 4 (51:33):
Five free D one FIM.

Speaker 2 (51:43):
With the best record last year, I break the tiebreaker
from week one, so I'm up first. I'm willing to
change this if there's negative injury news at the most
important skill position player on the team, But it doesn't
sound like it's going to trend in that direction. So
give me a new RADS plus three and a half

(52:05):
at home against the Chargers. MO, you're up next, and
you're staying in the AFC West.

Speaker 5 (52:15):
Yeah, I've got the Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (52:16):
Guys in Mahomes we trust this week, and we might
be This could be an amazing contest play. Guys, if
Worthy is out, and even if he's not, I feel
like people are going to be on the Eagles. I mean,
I just think I think the Chiefs might be a
contest play, and we might get a bad line here,

(52:36):
which may might make it even more of a contest
play if for the ends up being announced out early.
But I'm not sure what's going to happen with that,
but I still like the Chiefs here.

Speaker 2 (52:45):
This is lining up to be a classic pros versus
Joe's spot where literally everybody I know is loving Philadelphia
this week, and I think we'll be called morons by
some of our big fans based on this selection. Brett's
up next. It's only week two, but we've got a

(53:07):
lone wolf on the guard.

Speaker 1 (53:08):
I'm also willing to change this one depending on injury
news that we get on Friday and potentially Saturday, and
also because it is a lone wolf althout. You guys
don't seem too strong on the other side, but I
have the Houston Texans minus two and a half.

Speaker 2 (53:23):
Ah rare bulls can make that sound dp bringing up
the rear with another rah rah rah.

Speaker 4 (53:32):
I'm completely unwilling to change this one, just kidding. I'm
happily to tinker throughout all my stuff, but I got
the Bengals as.

Speaker 1 (53:40):
My number are.

Speaker 4 (53:42):
Unlike Brett. I think they're not going to be as popular,
but I'll sweat maybe they are that contest darling.

Speaker 2 (53:49):
If I have to sweat this idiot Joe Burrow every
single week, you guys are gonna hear it from me.
All right, let's get to the collect.

Speaker 1 (54:00):
Had them on the card last Sorry, who had them
on the car last week?

Speaker 2 (54:02):
Mo? Mo? Just week one? Just lining up to back
a road favorite in the Week one. Love it?

Speaker 1 (54:10):
Okay, let's get Yeah. I don't want the Bengals on
the cart every week, please, guys.

Speaker 2 (54:15):
Let's get the collective pick one of three consensus picks.

Speaker 6 (54:19):
This week.

Speaker 7 (54:21):
The Collective chooses.

Speaker 2 (54:38):
J E T s Jets, Jets, Jets. Donnie is shaking
his head. No, no, no, I'm.

Speaker 4 (54:49):
Just doing I'm doing the beat Jets j Yeah, I'm not.
I'm not shaking my head. I'm not shaking my head.
I just don't know why I was moving left or right.

Speaker 2 (54:57):
Six and a half home, six and a half point
home dogs to Brett the Bills make me wanna. Okay,
lots to unpack. Here are the Jets the best offense
in the league. Obviously, No, they cooked last week. I

(55:18):
was bullish on tanner Enstrand coming into the season because
Zach Rosenblat at the Athletic was very optimistic on him,
and Zach is very much in the vein of traditional
big j journalists, skeptical of everything. People are always lying
to me, this is not as good as people make

(55:38):
it out to seem. But when he did his background reporting,
when he went to Detroit, when he talked to people
around Tanner Engstrand, he was very bullish on what he
could bring, his philosophies and what he wanted to deploy
as the OC. That continued throughout camp as he laid
eyes on what they were doing, what their principles were,

(56:02):
and the Jets looked and acted like Lion's light. Last week.
A lot of cramming the ball, a lot of explosive
play attempts and successions with the Garrett touchdown, some of
the brief runs, the briefs screens, and a quarterback who
traditionally is not good looking, confident, poised guys in his

(56:28):
face didn't matter. He stepped up, knew where the ball
needed to go, and delivered. So I think the range
of outcomes has the Jets being closer to an average
offense than we anticipated. And if that's the case, I'm
willing to give this defense a little bit of a

(56:50):
pass for last week because they lost on some explosive
plays where again Brandon Stevens slipped fell, Calvin Austen was
running free into the end zone. And the biggest thing
that nobody from a national perspective is talking about is
that Jermaine Johnson off an Achilles, played damn near every

(57:11):
snap last week and looked like Jermaine Johnson. And in
this game specifically, Jermaine Johnson has kind of been the
Josh Allen killer because the Jets maintain very disciplined rush
lanes historically against Josh, they don't let him scamper. So
I think the Bills are on upset watch this week. BRTT.

(57:33):
I think the Jets can just flat out win this
game out right.

Speaker 1 (57:37):
I don't think you're wrong, Like, yeah, Not only do
I think the Jets are a really strong backdoor cover here,
but I think they're very live to when this came
out right. The Bills, they're great because of their quarterback
and how this offense operates low turnover worthy plays. They
take care of the ball. They're incredibly efficient. Last week
was the absolute worst matchup for them in terms of style,

(57:58):
and despite getting bulldoze for fifty five minutes, they found
a miraculous win. They never should have won. Last week.
They got bulldozed because this defense is a mess. The secondary,
especially we talked about it last week. A lot of
holes there. Matt Mulano and Toronto Bernard both had bad
games last week too. The best of Milano was probably
way behind him. This guy was a pro bowler two
years ago. He's not that anymore. The only guy who

(58:21):
played well for the Bills defense last week, and he
was awesome, was At Oliver, and now Oliver's on the
injury report after missing practice on Thursday. That's a huge loss.
So I think the Jets are I think they could
play with the Bills if Justin Fields takes care of
the ball. I think they'll be in the game if
they don't turn the ball over. And with the spread
south of seven in the contest too, circus daring people

(58:43):
to click Bills, and I think a lot of people will.
I think people are fully bothered, and not so much
on the Jets quite yet, So maybe there won't be
a lot of leverage opportunity, but I think I think
it will open up more of a more balanced with
the way people select this game.

Speaker 2 (59:00):
DP are the lowest on the Jets, so put a
pin on Gang Green.

Speaker 4 (59:05):
I mean, they looked good last week, I thought, you know,
I mean, I do have some concerns with this Bills team.
Just I thought coming into the season they would start
a little bit slower, especially on the defensive side of
the ball. You know, pleasantly surprised that they were able
to pull out that win in Week one, But I mean,

(59:26):
I think playing six and a half here is a
lot to ask in a divisional game, right. I think
this is going to probably surprise a lot of people
in that it's going to be closer than people expect,
which is fine.

Speaker 2 (59:38):
You know, it's still very early. It's week two.

Speaker 4 (59:40):
You know, I'm not going to go too crazy if
let's say, an upset does happen or whatever. So yeah,
I mean, I like the Jets in the spot, it's
going to be good.

Speaker 2 (59:50):
My biggest fear from a Jets perspective is if Glenn calls, well,
I shouldn't say calls because Steve Wilks is in charge
of calling the defense. If the Jets are too aggressive
on defense, I honestly think you roll out the most
vanilla Cover two, Cover three, keep everything in front, make

(01:00:12):
Josh play drop back, quarterback, be disciplined, make throws. Don't
let Josh Allen be a moose running around making crazy plays.
Just keep everything in front play Vanilla, let the d
line do its job and try to stay in the game.

Speaker 1 (01:00:32):
Which is such a crazy thing to say about Josh
because like four or five years ago, that's what you
wanted from Josh Allen was to get him outside the
pocket and doing crazy things. But he's such a different
quarterback now to where like he's doing crazy things and
they're like he's doing good things with them. He's not
throwing the ball into like double coverage. He's making the
smart reads and it's just wild how good he is.

(01:00:55):
So I mean, that is obviously concern, is that Josh
Allen can just take over a game by himself. But
I do think just given the the poles on the
defense right now, the Jets are definitely in play, all right.

Speaker 2 (01:01:07):
So the card Jets, Raiders, Chiefs, Texans, Bengals. We do
have two consensus picks that did not make the card,
and we'll keep it in the Big Apple because the
Giants travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. The
Giants are five and a half point dogs in the contest,
but we are all on the Giants. This is another

(01:01:27):
game in my account right now, Brett, you've said stock
high stock low many times on this podcast. And although
the Cowboys lost on the opener against Philadelphia, I think
people bought back into Dak Prescott bought back into this
offense and everybody, if they weren't already off the Giants,

(01:01:48):
they jumped off shift last week after they were plastered
by the Commanders. I still have the same concerns about
this Cowboys defense. Now they have Molique Neighbors in who
could absolutely thrash this secondary. So again I think the Giants,
while big dogs, can just win this game outright, that

(01:02:10):
would not shock me. So I like them getting this
many points in this game. Rule of NFC East as well, Brett,
you also have the Giants in your top lie.

Speaker 1 (01:02:19):
Now here we are again. Look, if you think the Giants,
given what we saw from them last week, are far
worse than you even thought before the season, then yeah,
I can see you getting to the six here and
even taking the Cowboys. But if you had higher aspirations
for the Giants coming into the season, are you taking
tape from one game and saying that this is a
bottom three team in the league, Because that's what this

(01:02:42):
line movement is telling me. This moved three points off
the look at, which is a huge move. And this
is why they call Week two overreaction week. Right, we
finally have some football to watch and make some determinations
about these teams. But what did we really even learn
about any team last week? I think we saw a
bottom range outcome from New York against the Commanders, and

(01:03:02):
it really all started with the offensive line. They were
in champ shambles without Andrew Thomas upfront. Javon Kinlaw looked
like Reggie White last week, and that's wild to say. Uh,
it's the offensive line is definitely an issue for the
Giants and something to be very concerned about. But am
I worried about the Cowboys having the same success? I don't.

Speaker 2 (01:03:26):
I believe in this.

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
I believe in this Giants defense. I think they're still
very good upfront, and like Rich, like you said, the
Cowboys on the other side could be a very It
could be a bottom three defense in the NFL. Yeah,
they held the Egos to a single field goal in
the second half of Week one, but that's a throwaway game.
Like they were in the locker room for an hour.
That was expected, Right, How are these offenses supposed to
be in rhythm coming out of a break like that.

(01:03:48):
So I am expecting a bounce back performance from New
York here offensively, and I think the defensive line will
have success.

Speaker 2 (01:03:55):
Getting to deck Andrew Thomas trending on return tackle.

Speaker 1 (01:04:02):
Back of practice, Yes, I don't know he did, but
I don't I would be surprised to be playing. I'll
put it that way. I think it's like forty sixty
right now. I'm following it very closely with it or
on the Giants. I am following every single injury report.
And Andrew Thomas is a big one.

Speaker 2 (01:04:21):
Well, if Andrew Thomas doesn't play that, I'm actually very
happy that this did not make our card. The next one,
the last game we'll talk about. You know, we give
Circa a lot of flowers. We heap tons of praise
on Circa. We are amongst their top fans. What the
hell did you guys do with this Broncos Colts line?

(01:04:44):
Did they just? What happened? This is a complete.

Speaker 3 (01:04:49):
Walk that the Broncos are the number one pick? Like,
what's going on here? What?

Speaker 2 (01:04:54):
I need something? I need a press release, I need
Benson on a step repeat giving a statement. What is this?
What is this pic? This is minus two?

Speaker 6 (01:05:05):
And a half.

Speaker 2 (01:05:05):
Everywhere and every single sharp better that makes content was
on Denver off of the look Ahead, even at a
flat three, because they thought it was an overreaction to
how poorly Denver played last week. So what is this

(01:05:26):
pick them? What kind of market movement is going to
drive this down to pick in real life? Somebody helped me.
Nobody can help me.

Speaker 5 (01:05:35):
I can't.

Speaker 3 (01:05:36):
But also, like I gotta say, you know, this has
been sort of a different week for me with travel
and whatnot. You know, I haven't been as plugged into
the lines, So I was wondering if you guys could
tell me what the hell's going on here.

Speaker 2 (01:05:49):
I've not heard one single person in front of a
microphone say that they liked Indianapolis constantly. I got nothing.
So we all did the same thing. We all did
the correct thing. We sat, padded, we put an X
next to the Broncos. But we knew this line is
a joke, so we can we simply cannot put I mean,

(01:06:11):
this is gonna be like, this is gonna be crazy, right,
like this is this thousand? I was gonna say two thousand.

Speaker 1 (01:06:19):
It'll probably be one of the higher selections in the
entire season.

Speaker 2 (01:06:23):
Swinging a miss. You guys do a lot of amazing stuff.
This is this is a catastrophe. This is one of
the worst lines they'll ever hang in this contest unless
they just know something we don't, ye know, so those
were exactly go Daniel Jones.

Speaker 5 (01:06:42):
All right.

Speaker 2 (01:06:45):
This is a very interesting survival week because, as we've
noted previously, in Circus Survivor, there are these island weeks
of Thanksgiving and Christmas in which you have to pick
on those short slates. The biggest favorite this week, the

(01:07:06):
Baltimore Ravens, plays on the Thanksgiving slate. Donnie's brought this
up previously, where they play the Cincinnati Bengals. So how
intriguing of a selection is that going to be? I
don't know. But even if you aren't holding them for Thanksgiving, specifically,

(01:07:27):
being one of the better teams in the league, they
naturally have future value as well, so we can bucket
them and the Bills, even though we're all on the Jets,
so I don't think any of us are taking the Bills.
Those are two great teams that had a ton of
future value. After that, the most obvious click this week
is the Arizona Cardinals playing host to those New Orleans

(01:07:51):
Saints and Brett, I'll start with you because I am
terrified at the potential ownership for the Cardinals in this contest.

Speaker 1 (01:08:04):
I am too. The problem is it's you do have
to think about the path and future value right. The
other good spot for Arizona's Week five against the Titans,
but I brought this up in the discord. I would
rather use the Cardinals now than wait a few more
weeks for cam Ward to figure it out and get better.
And like I said, I do think the Titans could
be a pesky out and Survivor this year. So if

(01:08:27):
I'm taking the Cardinals, I think it's just do it
this week. I don't love taking the chalk, but it
really does help you set up for a deep run
in Survivor if they win. And as much as I
preach fading the chalk path in future value matter two,
I guess the question for you guys is how popular
do we think the Cardinals are. I don't know what
people are gonna do with the Ravens this week. It's

(01:08:48):
such a weird one because I mean that kind of
sets the whole tone, right. If thirty percent around the
Ravens and I think you have to click Cardinals. But
if there's only like fifteen to twenty percent on the Ravens,
then everyone's going to be on the Cardinals and the Cowboys.
I don't want the Cardinals of like twenty five percent,
that's gross. It probably will be around twenty percent though.

Speaker 2 (01:09:06):
Yeah, the other one you brought up there is Cowboys.
Those are I mean, the three most likely candidates to
be popular this week are the Ravens, Cowboys, and Cardinals.
The biggest wild card, like you said, is Baltimore. How
will these people treat a Baltimore team with insane future
value and playing on an island slate? I tend to

(01:09:30):
think that this contest is pretty sharp generally, so I
think ownership is going to be lower on Baltimore than
projections haven, which means that I think ownership is going
to be way higher on Arizona and Dallas. So then
it's just a matter of Dallas also playing on Thanksgiving,

(01:09:51):
of course, so that's a consideration point with regards to them.
With Arizona, I still see some spots down road. I
see Week twelve home Jags, Like if the Cardinals are
the decent team that we project them to be, they
should be field goal favorites in that game. Week sixteen

(01:10:13):
against Atlanta, I think they should be pushing field goal
favorites in that game. So I think there's some future
value for the Cardinals where I mean where I landed
was the Rams for a couple of reasons. One to
piggyback off of you. I want to be fading kim

(01:10:34):
Ward now then later in the season. And I also
want to be on Matthew Stafford before he gets more
injured than he is, because some of the projected future
value for the Rams could be sucked up if he's
not available. And I see one very big bottlenecks spot
for the Rams when they host the Saints in Week nine,

(01:10:55):
so I don't even want to be tempted to be
in that spot. So I'm leaning Rams right now. But
I do want to also give love to Detroit and Minnesota. Man.
Minnesota before these injuries I think of. I think I
would have been on Minnesota if it wasn't for these injuries,
and Detroit, I Man, I don't think anybody's going to

(01:11:17):
be on them at all after last week, and I
do believe Dan Campbell's going to have these guys riporn
and ready to go. The problem is they have some
great future value in Home Brown's Home, Giants' Home Cowboys,
so you just be burning some very good future value
on them. We where are you at? And all this craziness.

Speaker 3 (01:11:38):
So you're making me want to take Baltimore. If they're
lower than they should be, then I think Baltimore's might play.
I'm between Baltimore and Lions. Actually, so, uh, I'm just
going to say that I do the opposite of what
you did, Rich, So I start with my spread picks

(01:11:59):
and then so I actually actually had Rams circled for
this week. And then once I realized that I thought
but market was overvaluing the Rams because I do, I
think they should be like three and a half favorites
and not five and a half.

Speaker 5 (01:12:15):
I just there.

Speaker 3 (01:12:17):
My experience tells me that I should never ever, ever
basically pick a team and survivor if I think that
the spread value was on the other side. And I
actually did think Baltimore should maybe be like thirteen favorites. Uh,
we didn't ever talk about that one, So I'm not
sure where you guys landed. I'm guessing it was another

(01:12:40):
consensus pick, but okay, maybe not maybe that was a
split British scale. I forgot yep, exactly.

Speaker 1 (01:12:49):
I'm obviously on browse.

Speaker 2 (01:12:50):
It's a split game that absolutely nobody had an opinion
except for Brett, who did have the Browns.

Speaker 3 (01:12:55):
Yeah, okay, so if I think the bread value is
on the Titans, and it's also just kind of a
trappy outdoor cross conference Mats Stafford outside, you know, road game,
early Bodyclock.

Speaker 5 (01:13:13):
It's just a lot of stuff that I it makes.

Speaker 3 (01:13:16):
Me a little bit queasy on on on rams, So
I'm gonna stay away from that, and I think I'm
going to take Baltimore, but I do.

Speaker 5 (01:13:24):
Have Detroit as kind of. I have my own Detroit
as well.

Speaker 3 (01:13:29):
It's not because I clicked the Bears in our picks,
but I just thought that line was like totally fair.
So you know, if they are that sort of a favorite,
and I think it's usable, I guess is what I'm
getting at. But I just want to know what you
guys think for future value and in like holiday value,

(01:13:50):
I guess on these games because but both of these teams,
like Lions, play on both slides, so that's like pretty bad, right,
So Ravens play Bengals on Thanksgiving slate. It's hard to
see ever taking the Lions versus the Packers, right at
this point, even at home, I'm thinking about that game,

(01:14:11):
and I'm like, even if Malik Willis was starting, like what,
I want to take the Lions Like probably not right,
I Mean, the Packers have already shown they can get
like reasonable play out of him to where that should
be a competitive game. So I can't see taking the
Lions there. It's really hard to imagine them taking taking
them on the road at the Vikings too. But that

(01:14:33):
whole slate is ridiculous. So it's like nothing's going to
be super attractive, right, I.

Speaker 2 (01:14:37):
Just wanted on Baltimore. They just have so much future
value like home Chicago, Home Steelers, Home Patriots.

Speaker 3 (01:14:48):
Like, but this isn't like a super easy week where
there's like a ton tons of great alternatives though.

Speaker 1 (01:14:54):
Yeah, but it's not like in the weeks that we're
going to have though of that.

Speaker 2 (01:14:57):
Right, Like, I actually I don't think this week is
as challenging as future weeks might be. Right, Like we're
denigrating the Rams. The market still has them as minus
five and a half, right, Lions are minus five and
a half, Like there's going to be weeks where there's
nobody that you have available that's above a field goal, right,
And that's when I want to be like, Okay, you

(01:15:18):
know what, now I'll click the Ravens at home against
the Bears. You know, GP where yet I haven't gotten
to you yet.

Speaker 4 (01:15:25):
So I'm with Mo in terms of when I originally
kind of mapped out a couple plans. I had the
Rams in this week, but I couldn't quite get to
five and a half and kind of worry about that
spot some So, I mean, you guys know me, I'm
never going to use these holiday teams. I always talk

(01:15:47):
about that. So I think I'm just going to eat
the chalk and back to Cardinals. And I understand they're
going to be popular, Yes, I get it. I will
also say that I think forty four hundred people twenty
two percent of the contest already use them in Week one.
Not that they won't be popular, you know, but I'm
just saying there's a good chunk of them that won't
have them available. I feel pretty good, Excuse me, I

(01:16:10):
feel pretty good coming out of Week one that Brett
and I weron the Jaguars. Yes, they were a little
bit more owned than I think we would have liked.
But you know, I still think it's it's pretty good
to you know, have a team for example, like you know,
just picking the chalk Denver still available to us. We
didn't go that way, you know, we went with the Jaguars,
So I like that. I do really like holding on
to Baltimore for future value. So you know, I don't

(01:16:34):
necessarily think the Cardinals have good spots. I understand what
you're saying, Rich, you know, Tennessee week five, Jacksonville week twelve,
I get it. But yeah, I mean I think just
getting the Cardinals out of the way now against a
team that I'm really not that high on in the Panthers,
I think it's fine. Listen, I understand the cold chalk argument.

(01:16:58):
I think I do think at some point you might
just need to kind of bite the bullet and eat
the chalk, which is fine. But if you're in, if
you're not compounding that by doing that every single week,
I think you'll ultimately be okay. But you know, this
is just kind of a weird week with every how
everything lines up specific to this circus survivor because you know,
you have to you have these holiday weeks, so I'm

(01:17:20):
likely just going to be.

Speaker 6 (01:17:20):
On the Cardinals.

Speaker 1 (01:17:21):
It's not like it's fifty percent shall either, right, I
mean we're talking about probably twenty to twenty five percent.
I actually think that I think Dallas might be the
most popular play this week. I think a lot of
people are going towards Dallas just because nobody's using them
the and there's no future value at all, So I
think that lines up for Dallas to be the most popular.
I don't love the idea of Donnie and I both
taking the same teams in the first two weeks, but

(01:17:43):
I think that's probably where're gonna where I'm going to
end up. I am still looking at the Vikes. The
Vikes are super interesting just because they also help you
set up for a deep run if you use in
this week, because they have no future value really either.
Just looking at some of the optimal path projections, there's
a good chance you won't even use the Vikings this
season to win it all, which is wild because to me,
they're a top ten team, but their schedule is so brutal,

(01:18:05):
and even some of the better matchups they have might
not be the best plays on the board that week.
You might want to go with somebody else. So I'm
definitely gonna have vices in some of my smaller pools,
but they're my second pick right now.

Speaker 4 (01:18:17):
In Circa.

Speaker 1 (01:18:19):
If injury things change today, I might lean bikes, but
right now, I think Donnie and I are just gonna
be on the Cardinals together.

Speaker 2 (01:18:28):
Yeah, Vikings. The only clear spot I'm seeing is at
home against Chicago in week eleven. They do have a
neutral field game abroad against the Browns in week five,
But do you want to get involved in the international flavor,
I'm not sure. So it sounds like Donnie and Brett

(01:18:51):
are both Cardinals right now. I guess I'm leaning rams
for the graphic purpose, but I am very much up
in the ear. I'm looking forward to hearing our guy
ODB in the DMS. He nailed ownership last week, so
I'd like to hear his take before I make a

(01:19:12):
formal decision as well. MO for the graphic. Right now,
what you got is it Baltimore Baltimore.

Speaker 3 (01:19:19):
If you guys aren't gonna all take Baltimore, then I
definitely want Baltimore because I feel like if there's absolute
chaos elsewhere and just the Ravens role then we want
one Baltimore pick.

Speaker 1 (01:19:30):
I like that. I agree, Yeah, I like that.

Speaker 2 (01:19:32):
I would love to get a positive injury report for
the Vikings today because I'm willing to fire tough week.

Speaker 1 (01:19:43):
Yeah, I don't know. We'll be talking about it, will
because if you want to take vikes, then I'm not
going to take vikes. I don't think we want two
on the Vikes. So yeah, we'll see. I mean, right
now is very it's tentative.

Speaker 2 (01:19:55):
Yeah, waiting for Friday injury reports, waiting for some some
more data to be collected. Be sure to follow at
Gerdain Gamble on Twitter to get our official picks on
Sunday morning. Follow these guys on Twitter at Donnie Underscore,
Peters at Brett Colson co O double L S O
N and at Monora n U double W A R

(01:20:15):
A H. I'm at rich t Ryan Until next week,
Best of luck in your betting benures.

Speaker 1 (01:20:24):
Peace,