2025 Week 3: Going Old School

The Collective are going old school with some classic handicapping spots — but does it matter in the new age NFL where favorites are covering at an historic clip?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Did Welcome Back So Great Iron Cambele, the only podcast
that puts its money where its mouth is.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
I'm your host, rich Ron, and I'm joined by two
members of the collective, the Disciple Brett Colson and the
resident mouse himself, Monara. Donnie is playing something poker they
quote keep dealing him hands, so he has betting discs
in front of him still and he is not with us.

(00:44):
Big apologies last week for the snaffo on my part.
Not only did I screw up the video where I
mean shouts to the fans who many of whom just
sat and watched a logo for eighty minutes while they
listened to the podcast Absolute Legends, but the audio itself
was not as good as it could be because it

(01:05):
was just recorded on my backup device here and I
didn't get the crisp audio from each and every one
of the collective, So apologies for that. Gonna do better.
But maybe it was a good week for us to
not show our faces because we went oh and five
in Circa Sports million. It is the sixth time in
our history that we've submitted an OH to five card,

(01:29):
only the second time since twenty twenty, and we also
did it week two last year we submitted an oh
five cards, so maybe us not reacting or overreacting. Very interesting,
And then in twenty twenty, I can't believe it, we
submitted an OH and to five card in weeks nine, ten,
and thirteen. Were we booby hunting? I swear we must well.

(01:52):
Between COVID and fake Tuesday football and booby hunting, that
whole season is that didn't happen? Twenty twenty did not happen.
If you are watching again, thank you for coming back.
Please like and subscribe to the channel listeners, rate and
review on your five year Podcatcher of choice five stars only,
Like Shreveport's own LSU Trey White, who we were discussing

(02:19):
before the pod, cannot believe he is still playing professional
football head registered to tackle? Yeah right, register to tackle
already in this game, a game in which, as I
get my sounders together, Bills make me wanna. The Buffalo
Bills are currently leading the greatest football team, the greatest

(02:43):
team twenty one to seven. Get your your alt overs
in in Orchard Park? Did they are forteene twenty one points?
Did the math put the cart for the horse? All right?

Speaker 3 (03:02):
I've stalled shocker, another chunk of survivor entries are going
to advance.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
That is, we are eight to zero survivor. That is
the upside, but so again, so is everybody else that
didn't put in a max leverage play or something punty
last week. All right, two split games this week, five
lone wolves. Unfortunately Donnie has four of them and is
not here to speak for himself. But there are let

(03:30):
me get the count correct, six seven, eight consensus picks.
And this is a very interesting capping week because over
the last i want to say, eight weeks and maybe
just for the better part of last season and the
start of this season, favorites have absolutely smashed in Pro football,

(03:53):
and the way the slate is set up this week,
there are some absolutely traditional old school mapping spots where
there's a home dog or a team that is getting
way too much credit after only two weeks of sample.
And it's either gonna come to a head where everything

(04:13):
normalizes and some traditions and Brett cover your ears trends
come to life, or the favorites you're just gonna keep smashing.
We're going to keep submitting on five cards and I'm
not gonna know what's up and what's down when it
comes to capping pro football?

Speaker 3 (04:32):
What do you mean we're all going to be rich
from winning all the booies?

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Exactly. We might have to pivot two hashtag booby season,
but we will start with the split games where there
are two hosts on one side and to us on
the other. And we start with an NFC clash between
the New Orleans Saints and the Seattle Seahawks. And I
can comfortably say amongst the collective, nobody has been lower

(04:55):
on Seattle than Brett Colson, So it is unsurprising to
see him take the points with New Orleans and put
them in his top five.

Speaker 4 (05:03):
You say that, and it's true, But I did have
Seattle in my top five last week. That was more
of a play against Pittsburgh Chalk than anything else. But yes,
I don't like this Seattle team. And you know what,
on the other side, all things considered, Spencer Ratler has
been far better than what I expected him to be
this season. Like the offensive metrics aren't good with the Saints,

(05:23):
but they were supposed to be horrendous according to market
expectations coming into the year. He right now, he is
seventh in PFF grade at quarterback. They are eighteenth eighte.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
If it comes out with Ratler seventh throw it out.

Speaker 4 (05:40):
But it doesn't have a thirty two next to it, right,
twenty eighth in in CPOA. But it's not phenomenal. But
when your team is being treated like the dumpster fire
that the market is treating it like, these numbers aren't
that bad. And these the Saints were in both of
their games until late.

Speaker 5 (05:58):
In the fourth quarter.

Speaker 4 (05:58):
They are gritty, they have playmakers. Yes, the Seattle defense
is a different beast than what they've seen so far,
but like, let's not forget last year Ratler. Ratler put
a scare into the Seahawks team in a one score
game last year. He's seen them before. The Saints easily
covered in that game, although they were fourteen and a
half point dogs compared to the seven point dogs this week.
But I see this as a spot to fade Seattle,

(06:21):
a team I did not like coming into the year
off a very strange win last week, which included a
boneheaded play by a rookie that handed the Seahawks a touchdown.
And I'm putting my trust in this Saints defense that
does a pretty good job generating pressure and now faces
one of the league's worst offensive lines with the statue
Sam Darnold sitting behind it. So I like the Saints

(06:43):
here a lot. I think we're all gonna be cheering
for them to win just straight up this week as well.
But yeah, this is one of my favorite plays of
the week the Saints.

Speaker 3 (06:53):
MO.

Speaker 2 (06:53):
It looks like he'll be riding with the forty percent
insert as oh No says that yes, yeah, yes, no,
lower than thirty percent for sure, pushing.

Speaker 4 (07:08):
Forty for circus, A different circus, a different beast.

Speaker 2 (07:12):
Man for sure, mister Nuwara. So here's where I'm at
on this game. You I did confirm by the way,
you were tied for last in our power rankings weeks
one and two at the Hawks. You are alone with
the Hawks at twenty third. Our average power ranking amongst
the collective is eighty. Everything you said about the Saints

(07:34):
is fair and is true, but they still failed to
cover in their comfy confines at home against a mid
Cardinals team laying heaps and mccorkyl Jones on the road
laying more than a field goal. Now they have to
travel all the way. Don't give me that look, Mo,
that the things had several chances to cover last week,

(07:58):
and they did it right.

Speaker 3 (08:00):
The Heads, Well, I'm more like it was a three
point line, Like, come on, it's twenty.

Speaker 2 (08:06):
Twenty five on the road. If you can't cover that
number at home, you're an embarrassment. Now they gotta travel
all the way to Seattle, playing outdoors, no dome. This
just has catastrophe written all over it. I honestly wanted
to love the Seahawks in this spot. I legitimately think
they have a top five defense, but once again, it

(08:30):
looks like no Witherspoon, no Eminory, and no Julian Love.
So I had to put the Hawks lower outside of
my top five, more towards the middle of my entire card.
But yeah, I don't think the Saints are gonna have much,
if any offensive success in this game, and this could
just be the old get to twenty and still be

(08:51):
able to score, still be able to cover a touchdown
spread because the Saints offense is just that inept. Another one,
this one I have the strongest opinion on. As the
Dallas Cowboys travel to Chicago to take on the Bears.
This cap is very reductive because I think Dak Prescott

(09:17):
is borderline very good, and I think that's the difference
in this game. Where in the range of outcomes for
Ben Johnson. Like I think I joked about this in
the discord, I think like Adam Gase is now within

(09:39):
the range of outcomes for Ben Johnson. It's getting ugly
real fast in Chicago. And we can say that it's
the quarterback and that it's execution, but they're not going
to be pivoting off of this quarterback, and if they
do at some point this season, it's going to be

(10:00):
something Tyson beagent and the biggest issue for Chicago in
this game as they are going to be without an
all Pro cornerback in Jalen Johnson, which is paramounts when
you've got Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens coming to town.
So this total is correctly north of fifty. I think

(10:24):
the Cowboys can name their score in this contest, and
it's going to be up to the Bears to keep
pace with them against a Cowboys defense that is not good,
is rating very poorly in pass defense EPA and past
success rate, and that was against an Eagles passing attack
that didn't even want to throw forward passes. So I

(10:45):
understand the limitations of this Cowboys pass defense. I just
don't know if the Bears are good enough to take
advantage of that. So I kind of love the Cowboys
in this spot. Brett, it's you and me again because
you have this low, but you do have it as
the highest amongst the Bears supporters.

Speaker 4 (11:04):
I barely remember who I've been picked in this game.
This is one of those where I just it was
a coin float. So I took the Bears because I
do think Dalla's probably will be somewhat popular in this
because I have people are seeing the same thing. The
deck has looked amazing, and he's got all these weapons,
and the Bears are without their number one or number
one cornerback now, so really just a leverage. I mean,
it's it's more dire than that. Let's let's just paint

(11:24):
the right picture for the people. The Bears are missing
like like four or five defenders from they're too deep.
I wanted to love the Bears here, but I just
can't do it with with with I don't know what
this defense is gonna look like.

Speaker 2 (11:38):
Man TJ. Edwards Jalen Jones can be added to that.
Jalen Johnson injury. I only two split games. Now it's
time to get to some lone wolves. We'll get to

(12:02):
Donnie's squad of lone wolves in a moment, but first
we'll get to Brett, who has a soft bubbling conference
matchup where I set off the top. There are some
very traditional capping spots this week. I believe this is
one of them, and it's a team that Brett not

(12:23):
only picked last week, not only put in his top five,
but he put onto our card. He's laying the one
and a half with the Jags against the Houston Texans.

Speaker 4 (12:35):
I went back and forth on this game all week
because originally I loved the Texans, just off that loss that.
I mean, it could have gone either way, but they
didn't deserve to be in that game.

Speaker 5 (12:45):
For sure.

Speaker 4 (12:46):
If we got the Carver Lazed week, we didn't deserve it.
So it's fine. Yeah, I think I just ended up
on This Texans offense looks dreadful.

Speaker 5 (12:57):
It's just they cannot get any.

Speaker 4 (12:59):
Consistent see going with c. J. Stroud behind this offensive line,
and I guess until I see it. I mean, we
always say offense over defense, and the Jaguars offense just
looks far better than this Texans offense right now. I
even that said too, like this Texas defense didn't. They
looked fine last week, but this wasn't the world beating
defense that we saw at the end of last season either.

(13:20):
So I think with the Texans, And it's funny because
actually have them rated higher than the Jags in the
power rankings, which we can talk about a little bit
as well. But I think I just ended up on
the Jacks here because the offense looks better.

Speaker 2 (13:32):
Yeah. I just think this is a great spot where
I get it. Houston has looked awful, fledgling. Now we
get them in a divisional spot in a game where
I think their defense will have a lot more success
against the Jags offense. That let's face it, just they
scored a bunch of points last week against whatever Bengals defense.

(13:54):
But it doesn't seem correct. It doesn't seem like the
Liam Cohen thing is clicking just yet. And that's not
to say that at some point this season, middle of
the season, end of the season that they'll start firing
on multiple cylinders. These things take time, and the same
can be said about Ben Johnson. That's why I said
the Adam Gase thing is within the range of outcomes.

(14:15):
It's not the certainty at this point. But yeah, I
this Liam Cohen thing isn't working to date. I'm buying
into this Brian Thomas junior thing where it's like yip season, man,
these are lay up plays that the guy is leaving
on the field and we've got him mad at Tee

(14:38):
Law and Tee Law mad at Liam Cohen. And I
don't know, I think these things really do matter. And
with the Texans, it's like, I think there are paths
to them having offensive success, Like it looked good against
the Bucks when they threw the ball to Nico Collins,
Like this guy is incredible at football. Why don't we

(15:00):
do that more as opposed to just cramming the ball
straight with Nick Chubb. So yeah, I think this is
just a spot to buy a team that's zero and
two in a divisional matchup and hope that it just
doesn't look as poor as it's looked so far. Who
where are you at on this divisional tilt?

Speaker 3 (15:24):
I think the same as you that this Texans team
I think is still a pretty solid team. Like, look
at the competition they've played, man, I mean they've played
the Bucks and the Rams, Like it's not embarrassing to
lose to those teams. And then you have a Jags
team that could have been two and oh, but they

(15:45):
kind of looked like dog shit getting to two and
oh if they would have gotten there right, Like they
beat up the Panthers, who played arguably the worst game
anyone's played this season. I guess in that game that
was horrifying. And uh, and then they just you know,
multiple turnovers from the Bengals and and and their offense

(16:07):
really doesn't look good. Guys, I think Liam Cohen might
be a fraud. I'm I'm all in on, like everybody's
just overrating these.

Speaker 2 (16:14):
The guys who Bakers are also the guys who Baker.
What if Baker's just propping to.

Speaker 3 (16:19):
Bakers read and these guys is Baker is doing work?
What if it's him? And what if these o S's
are just oh SE's. We don't know if these guys
are good head coaches man like Ben Johnson, Like, I
don't know. I'm not writing these guys off, but I
don't like how this Jags offense looks. I will say
one thing, okay, in his favor, the running game has

(16:42):
looked light years better than it looked last year, Etn
actually looks like a good running back. Again, there's actually holes.
This man knows how to scheme a running game. Okay,
the Athletic Football Show was all over this last year,
and there they must be right. But but why does
this passing offense look horrifying? Instead of throwing to Travis
Hunter and BTJ, they're just like peppering something Washington or whatever.

Speaker 5 (17:08):
These who are these guys?

Speaker 2 (17:09):
Man?

Speaker 3 (17:10):
Get it to the real football players. Guys, this shouldn't
be as hard as they're making it. But I don't
think this offense looks good man. I don't think the
Jags are good, and I think they're gonna lose this week.
But yeah, not a ton of wine value. I had
this on the other side of one.

Speaker 2 (17:25):
Yeah, losing when Jake Browning comes in cold and hand
you the ball multiple times is a very very tough look.
And speaking of U Dub's own Jake Browning Bengals at Vikings.
As we slide over to Donnie's Lone Wolves and he
has the Vikings in his top five Donnie's. I asked

(17:51):
him for his take. He said, backup quarterback versus backup quarterback.
But this should be a tough spot for Browning up
against a good D that likes to bring pressure on
the road, they'll have to score some points. I trust
O'Connell managing backup quarterbacks. We've seen Wentz play and I
can't imagine he's going to be worse than McCarthy. The
Vikings offense also has the benefit of going against a

(18:12):
bag Bengals D, which I think adds to my confidence
in Minnesota. My retort to that is that Carson Wentz
is so bad that he's been on six teams in
six years, like no team has been Like you know what,
Carson Wentz, Let's keep him and he can hold the
clipboard in case something happens to our quarterback. And it's

(18:34):
not like he's been with Minnesota very long. He came
late in the summer via trade, so I don't think
he's fully downloaded and installed this Vikings offense. Whereas Jake
Browning has been in this system for six years now.

Speaker 3 (18:49):
You tell us Bratt, you're the lead Jake brown Yeah, it's.

Speaker 4 (18:52):
Been at least five years.

Speaker 5 (18:53):
That's my guy.

Speaker 2 (18:54):
Well, we have to get to Brett because this is
Bret's the rule of backup quarterback guy. And like Donnie noted,
this is double rule of backups. So what do we
do here? Wow?

Speaker 4 (19:03):
One we know is threshold. I love this spot for
the Bengals. Like longtime listeners of this show might remember
what a man crush I've had on Jake Browning. I
loved him in college. I called him the next Drew Brees.
Still might be the next Drew Brees. He is, in
my eyes, the best, by far, the best backup quarterback
in the NFL. And while there's obviously a drop off

(19:23):
from Burrow to Browning, I put my trust in this
guy to win a football game anytime he steps on
the field. He looked very good last week. He was
he was fantastic for a backup quarterback in twenty twenty three,
like he was like league average in twenty twenty three
filling in for Burrow. And where he really shines is
against the Blitz sixth and pff. Great against the Blitz

(19:45):
two years ago, and that's gonna matter this week against
Brian Flores and two years ago, he shredded this Flora's
defense three hundred and twenty four yards a pair of touchdowns.
Like he knows what he's in for this week. This
is not one of our guessing games with back of
quarterbacks where we have to predict if they are above

(20:05):
or below the threshold. We know what Jake Browning is.
The guessing game is on the other side because I
have no idea what to expect from Carson Wentz. He,
like you said, he just signed with this team a
month ago. How familiar is he with this offense? Like
he's got the QB whisperer and KOC. But I don't know, man,
He's had very little time to work with this first
team offense. Now a very valuable safety valve and Aaron

(20:26):
Jones is out like Jordan Mason's Fine is a runner,
but Jones is the pass catching guy. Still know Jordan Addison.
Wentz gets to play against this Bengals defense in his
first start, which is nice. But can he take advantage?
That's the biggest question coming in and so I will
gladly take the points here with Cincinnati until I can

(20:47):
see Wentz prove that he is he is worthy of
getting a star in this league.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
Again, both teams dealing with injury outside of the quarterback position.
I think the Vikings know things. Yeah, the Viking's more
so than the Bengals. Especially because it's it's upfront, this
daar assault thing. I don't understand how he was a
full on Wednesday and then we're just I guess they
were just like, Eh, that doesn't look good. So back

(21:14):
to the NP here on Thursday with the knee.

Speaker 4 (21:17):
That guy matters. If you watch that game last week,
they were getting torched up front and it's out too.

Speaker 2 (21:25):
Yeah, just something school dealing with a concussion, as is,
as is the way center Ryan Kelly. So if there's
one thing we know about Carson Wentz kind of unlike
the other Vikings quarterbacks who have preceded him in this
KOC system, when's this kind of a gunslinger from season's past? Right?

(21:48):
Like I love the Bengals. I have Bengals money beat
line in my accounts. Just the institutional stability of Jake Browning. Yeah,
he's been and I checked it. He's been in the
league since nineteen. He was undrafted free agent for a
couple of years with the Vikings, ironically enough, and then
came over to Cincinnati in year three and it's been

(22:09):
in this Bangles system ever since. He has the familiar
familiarity with the weapons on this team, and I love
the Bengals. Here in this.

Speaker 3 (22:20):
Jake Browning knows the assignment. That one thing we can
say is that man knows the assignment. Did it always
work out for him? Last week? No, he made some
absolutely horrific interceptions. Okay, that's the big downside with Jake Browning.
When you compare Jake Browning to Joe Burrow, I realized
when I was watching, I'm like, Okay, the big change

(22:41):
is the big negative plays. Burrow just doesn't make those.
But Browning had some horrific interceptions, but he'll make all
the same big plays that Burrow makes.

Speaker 2 (22:49):
Basically, Yeah, the only negatives that Burrow makes, and it's
kind of led to his demise unfortunately physically, is that
he holds onto the ball forever. But he does so
purposefully because he knows he has receivers who can freelance
and beat Man especially, and then can find pockets and
zone and create explosives. So, I mean Burrow's credit. I

(23:13):
shot on Burrow all the time, but he's he's a
beast for how willing he is to put himself in
danger to make big plays. Unfortunately, it's reared its ugly
head once again for him. Last week, we moved to
Donnie's favorite place on planet Earth, the city of Philadelphia,

(23:35):
where he is laying the three and a half with
the Eagles. Well, I wanted to be as confident as
you in selecting the Traveling Rams, because how can a
team that has not thrown for a single touchdown in
pro football through two weeks score and extend leads and

(23:57):
cover a spread larger than a field. But I don't know.
The Eagles are just like my bugaboo team, so I
had to keep sliding them down. But you did the
right thing. You put the Rams in your top five.

Speaker 3 (24:09):
Join the club, buddy. Yeah, multiple things I want to
talk about with this game. Number one, we're the only
podcast that apparently is willing to just come out.

Speaker 5 (24:18):
And say that the Eagles cheated last week.

Speaker 3 (24:21):
So I just like listened to the entire The Athletic
Football Show recap and they just like completely didn't even
mention it once. Like, guys, the Eagles cheated four times,
that had a large impact on the game. We're just
going to pretend like that wasn't real. That's not going
to continue, at least I don't think so. The Refts
are going to be looking for this bullshit now every

(24:41):
time the Eagles get in that formation, so if they
aren't getting these free first downs.

Speaker 5 (24:47):
That matters, Okay.

Speaker 3 (24:49):
And then you have the fact that something Odb said
last year to us after I think it was actually
maybe before the Rams played the Eagles, I can't remember,
not in the playoff, but in the regular season, because
he was like, really heavy on Eagles and they killed
the Rams, and he was like, it's just physicality. You
just you need physicality against the Rams. That was last

(25:09):
year's Rams.

Speaker 5 (25:10):
This year's Rams have poon Afford.

Speaker 3 (25:14):
They have some bodies in the middle that are ready
to stand up to this Eagles offensive line. Okay, so
I think they're ready. They this is double circled the
team that ended their season. This is, in my opinion,
a better team. I'm just gonna say, I think everybody
is pretending like the Why is everyone pretending like the
Eagles are a juggernaut? Why can't the Rams be better

(25:35):
than the Eagles. The Eagles came out, they looked like
shit in Week one, barely beat the Cowboys. If Ceedee
Lamb remembered how to catch, they might have lost his
eight point favorites. Then they got out played by the
Chiefs like Chris Jones said one hundred yards passing, but
they cheated and Travis Kelcey dropped the winning touchdown, so
they won whatever, good for them. But I'm not gonna

(25:56):
sit here and pretend like that means the Eagles are good.
So I think they're playing a better team here and
they're laying three and a half points. So give me
the Rams and give me the Rams money.

Speaker 4 (26:07):
That was the one thing I wrote down here. The
only thing I wrote down, are we sure the Eagles
are better? Because I'm not.

Speaker 3 (26:13):
I put the Rams above them this week. That's just
what I think. After watching this Eagles team twice, why
can't the Rams be better than them?

Speaker 2 (26:21):
Wow? That's a take, And I feel like I've been
the highest on the Rams specifically because of this defense.
They rounded into form at the end of last year,
and like you said, all they did was ad bodies
this offseason to share things up up front. What was
funny about last week's game is that I am very

(26:42):
so right now. The Chiefs are just I think they're
just broken right. Like they were already a team that
needed to operate somewhat perfectly to have success, and they
took away Savior Worthy and Rashid Rice, who really matter,
the guy that they drafted to to kind of be
a Rashi Rice long term replacement. Jalen Royals has been

(27:03):
hurt and hasn't come online, so they're just not I mean,
Tayekwon Thornton is running extremely meaningful routes for the Chiefs,
so they are just kind of a broken team. And
all of that being said, the Eagles looked horrendous last
week and could have lost that football game if Travis
Kelce could catch an oblong object. So I can see

(27:26):
the path with which the Rams come out and kick
the Eagles butt a little bit here, and then the
response is what do the Eagles do? Do the Eagles
become a twenty twenty five team and move the ball
by throwing it? And Aj Brown and DeVonta Smith are
doing things. I think that's within the range of outcomes.

(27:47):
Those are really great players. But we've always had questions
about the quarterback. And this is an offensive coordinator who
kind of like the last time when Shane Psyke and left,
has not been up to snuff. So far, You're you're
making me want to perhaps place a wager on the Rams.
In the spot I grabbed the under. As soon as

(28:08):
this came out, forty five was the total. If the
Eagles are going to continue on their bs of running
the ball and extending the game, I'm just going to
keep firing every Eagles under. That's that's above forty four
because these games are insanely low scoring, including last week's
game against the Chiefs Raiders at Kammies. DP is low

(28:32):
on these next two, so we can get through them quickly.
He is taking the three and a half points with
the Raiders. MO, you're the only person with an opinion
on this game. You have the commis soft bubbling your
top five.

Speaker 5 (28:45):
Yeah, I mean.

Speaker 3 (28:47):
On paper, I'm like, okay, I don't know about the
Commander's being like decent favorites in this game. Then I
just look at this spot and I just yeah, I
mean Marcus Mariota, I have confidence he can he can
slot in for Jade and Daniels. I really like that

(29:08):
he is going to play the same style as Jade
and Daniels.

Speaker 5 (29:12):
That helps the coaching staff quite a bit in my opinion.

Speaker 3 (29:16):
Also, he's shown that we don't just have to project again.
He just came in last year and was pretty solid,
And yeah, I just like I like this Raiders team
on paper, but last year or last week was horrifying,
and then now they're in like the worst spot possible.

(29:37):
You have Commanders extra rest, you have Raiders short rest,
you have Raiders traveling cross country. This is about as
bad as it gets, like almost schedule loss territory maybe here.
So I had to just bump this up a couple
more points than I think the talent levels dictate. So

(29:57):
that was basically my thinking here is I don't know
if the numbers fully taking that into account.

Speaker 2 (30:04):
Shouts to the deep dive. And two terms that they
at least I think they invented that are appropriate for
this game. One is clipboard delta, which you are talking
about right there, and between Marcus Mariota and Jade and Daniels,
you're not going to find a smaller clipboard delta there
between playing style at least. And then the other one

(30:26):
is they call this game the widow Maker. You've got
short week versus extended rest, and it is the shortest
week possible because the Raiders played the night version of
the Monday Night Football on top of the fact, like
Mos said that they had to travel across the country.
Brett if they said tomorrow that it is Marcus and

(30:47):
Mariota rule of backup quarterback, would this change your cap
at all for the contest?

Speaker 4 (30:54):
You mean if they said it was Daniels, if.

Speaker 2 (30:58):
They I think we're expecting Mariota has not the prospect. Yeah,
but if they confirmed it tomorrow, does this line even move? Like?
Is this is this hedge? Is this a hedge or
is this them just projecting their Mario to starting.

Speaker 5 (31:13):
I feel like it's the second thing.

Speaker 2 (31:15):
That they think Mario is. Sorry, I believe so as well.

Speaker 4 (31:18):
I guess it could get the three, then it.

Speaker 2 (31:22):
Would be leverage season if it got to a flat three.
But I don't I just don't know what the market
support would take in order to get this number to three.
I just don't see people lining up to bet Vegas
off of that performance.

Speaker 4 (31:37):
True.

Speaker 2 (31:37):
I don't know though. All Right, last loan ol from DP.
This is the game. I absolutely love. It's one of
the first bets that was in my account because I
actually bet the look Ahead and I have I'm holding
on to a half point of value. I honestly think
it should be more because I think it's wrong team
favored and it's Steelers at Patriots. The Steelers are one

(31:58):
and a half point favorites in the com tests. We
open this off by talking about how nobody has been
lower than Brett on the Seahawks. Nobody has been lower
than me on the Steelers because I saw the signs
of this defense. I mean, you could go back to
last year. TJ. Watt was showing signs of being washed
towards the end of last year, and it, unfortunately might

(32:21):
be happening for those Yensers because that defense has been
pathetic for the first two weeks of the season, especially
if the Jets are as bad as they showed in
Week two. It's probably somewhere in between the two. But
the Jets were completely stifled by the Bills, and they
scored it will against the Steelers to the tune of

(32:43):
point four epa per play. You add to that this
Alex Highsmith injury. He's already been ruled out with the ankle,
Joey Porter hasn't practice all week with a hamstring injury,
and then it's slow inaccurate Yippie and Rogers on the

(33:03):
road as a road favorite against a Patriots team, albeit
against a kind of cream puff. Opponents looked a lot
better last week, specifically, Drake May Kisham Boodie is coming
online and is kind of a thing for the Patriots,

(33:23):
and yeah, I just think this is wrong team favored.
Give me better coach, better quarterback, and I'm loving everything
about it. No a lot of nodding over there.

Speaker 3 (33:35):
Yeah, I mean, I'm with you, and it's just a
lot of the same things, even as far as just
like my mental approach to the Patriots, like what you
said about being the low man. I mean, I've been
the low man on the Patriots from square one, and
I'm still like baffled that they could be home underdogs
in this spot. I Mean, one thing that makes me

(33:55):
like the Patriots a little bit more is just the
fact that rule of gino here where the only thing
I see that Steelers doing well here is maybe pressuring
the quarterback. But Drake May is born knowing how to
play under pressure as an NFL quarterback. Basically, like every

(34:16):
snap he's taken has been under pressure.

Speaker 5 (34:18):
This is just going to be like breathing to him.
You know.

Speaker 3 (34:20):
It's just like, Okay, another game where my O line
is getting whooped. So it's a day that ends in
why and I'm playing football so that's not going to
phase him. I like that a little bit for the
Patriots because I just don't see what else the Steelers
have going for them in this game. I don't know
what the Steelers have done to show us that they're

(34:41):
definitively a better team than the Patriots. I have these
teams very close in my power ranking, and it mystifies
me that the Steelers could be road favorites here.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
The other positive for New England is such a chance
that Christian Gonzas will make his debut. He's been a
limited participants in practice. I still think he's perhaps a
dog to go, but that would obviously be a massive
boost to this Patriots secondary. So Brett's got the Jags,

(35:12):
Donnie's got the Vikings, Eagles, Raiders, and Stealers. A lot
of games we haven't touched upon yet. Let's see how
many consensus picks pop up on the card nine eight

(35:32):
five for free one fire. We'll start with some consensus picks,
and we'll start with MO. I guess it's the only
consensus pick not from the collective to make the card.
And Mo, this is a classic capping spot. Pinch your nose,

(35:59):
hold your breath, and put an.

Speaker 3 (36:01):
X next two Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns. Yeah,
this is a collective classic here. What's wrong with Benny
and the Browns is seven and a half. I think
this is too high, man. This is just the sleepiest
spot in the world. You got a fat and happy

(36:23):
Packers team that came out and molly wopped to very
good teams and is feeling itself going on the road
against an AFC team that everyone thinks is the worst.
And then you have a Cleveland Browns team that I'm
just gonna say it, guys, they've played a lot better

(36:45):
than their results so far. Okay, so that's the big
thing here. They should have beaten the Bengals in Week one. Okay,
they completely outplayed the Bengals. I think that's obvious. Then
last week they honestly didn't get.

Speaker 5 (36:58):
Their asses kicked.

Speaker 3 (36:59):
As bad as the score, that game was reasonably competitive
and the Ravens hit a couple of big plays. Flaco
I think made a big mistake. There was a maybe
a pick six in there, I think. I mean it
just it just got out of hand. This snowballed in
the second half. This team is better than its results
so far, and then I think so just matchup wise,

(37:23):
this defense has still showed that it has teeth, which
give I give them credit because I didn't know if
they did. That was why I like the Bengals Week one.
I didn't know if this Browns defense was still any good. Well,
they're still showing they can get after the quarterback. I
mean they had Lamar legitimately uncomfortable multiple times in that game,
sacked him multiple times, I believe. And then you have

(37:45):
a Green Bay team that I don't know if there's
a quarterback that I'm more terrified of than Jordan Love
in a perfect pocket. That man will deliver the ball
exactly on target pretty much every time if he's got
his feet set, and it's probably gonna be more than
ten yards downfield, so it's gonna be a big play usually.

(38:05):
But if you pressure Jordan Love, he has shown he
will make some big mistakes at times. I looked into that.
That's what my eyes tell me. I looked into the
PFF pressure grades just to see what they said. Monster difference,
like Matt Stafford level difference. He had an eighty sixth
grade in a clean pocket last year fifty three, I

(38:27):
think when he was when he was pressured, and that's
I think jives with what I see when I watch him.
I mean, so, you know, the Browns could put up
a fight here.

Speaker 2 (38:38):
I think Brown's positive net yards for play thus far
this season. Point seven, Brett, you made that face, but
you had the Browns in your top five Week one.
They got the cover. What is the what's the pause for?

Speaker 4 (38:57):
Because it's the Packers in Lafloor with extra rest preparing for. Like,
I like the Browns, but this is not a good
football team. This could just be a walkover. I just
think the Packers are so good and might still be
undervalued by the market.

Speaker 5 (39:12):
I think it's one, A, one B.

Speaker 4 (39:13):
As far as like the best team in the NFL
right now, I think it's the Ravens and the Packers
are right there. So I think this is I'm with you, guys.
I like the Browns at the number seven and a half,
but I just think the Packers are They could just
destroy Cleveland in the spot.

Speaker 2 (39:28):
My two biggest fears One, I think this will be popular.
People have been hammering this down from nine to seven
and a half. Seventy eight percent of the DraftKings sandal
is on Cleveland and The other thing is that part
of betting a dog of this size is you want
the ability to crawl through the back door if necessary.

(39:49):
And what if the Browns do it again and put
something Dylan Gabriel in the game when we are trying
to get them to cover as opposed to them.

Speaker 3 (40:00):
I mean they were down twenty when they did that, right, Well,
this is numb dead once you're down.

Speaker 2 (40:04):
How much were the Panthers down last week when they
staged They're comeback? You know when you've got a plus
seven and a half Like These are outcomes that you
need to consider. So those are my two trepidations there.
But generally I think this is a very fine selection.
I'll go next. I have a majority pick. We literally
just talked about it. It is the New England Patriots

(40:27):
plus one and a half at home against the Steelers.
My only fear here is I think this could be popular. Two.
I don't know who is lining up to lay points
with two.

Speaker 4 (40:39):
Everybody picks the Steelers. Everybody picks the Steelers like it
doesn't matter. Lea's just line up to pick the Steelers.

Speaker 2 (40:46):
I hope. So let's go Pats, Let's go Rabel Brett.
We got you next you and it's so funny because
of what you said. There's a direct quote from you
last week. I can't wait for you to make your selection.

Speaker 4 (41:00):
I'm taking Jake Brownie.

Speaker 2 (41:04):
Last week when somebody put the brown the Bengals on
the card, you said, who put this on? We can't
keep putting the bangles on every week. Obviously it's different now.

Speaker 4 (41:15):
Different bangles.

Speaker 2 (41:16):
It's so perfect that you literally it.

Speaker 4 (41:18):
Really is perfect.

Speaker 2 (41:20):
We can't sell me putting the bangles.

Speaker 4 (41:23):
It's so me to like the backup more than the starter.
It's just yeah, that's it's this is very very me
pick for sure.

Speaker 2 (41:32):
And the DP selection is the Houston Texans plus the
one point point a half at Jacksonville. So although we
had a ton of consensus, only one of us put
a consensus pick on. The next consensus pick will come
from the collective machine. It's time to get ugly again, boys.

(42:08):
The collective chooses the Tennessee Titans. Throw up them use Baby.
Just a classic capping spot look ahead of two moves
two and through the key number of three home divisional

(42:32):
game Colts getting fat and happy at home in the
comfy confines of the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium, Daniel
Jones sleeper MVP hype, and I think it could potentially
all come crashing down against the Tennessee Titans, who have

(42:53):
stunk the first two weeks of the season, and nobody
wants a single piece of Brett. I am legitimately shocked
to see that you are the lowest on Tennessee.

Speaker 4 (43:06):
I think Stichen has me, man, I'm worried that this
guy is just a genius. The way he's the way
he schemed the offense last week against that Broncos defense
was brilliant, and I just I worry that he's just
going to keep doing that every single week and attack
the biggest weaknesses of the opposing side optimally. I just

(43:27):
I think that's why I pumped this down. Obviously I'm
high in the Titans, but I don't know, Man, I'm
I'm a little stichen pilled right now. Is that has
me worried a little bit?

Speaker 2 (43:38):
We this is just one of the spots, right, Like,
if everything we've known about doing this is true, this
is a spot where at a minimum, we should have
a sweat, right, we should have a chance to cover
in this game. But if the recent times are the
New World Order, which is gonna be pissed off that

(43:59):
we have something cam Ward and his crappy Titans team
on our guard. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (44:04):
I mean, the thing about this game is that I
just keep coming down to so when I look at
this game, I'm like, Okay, the Colts have every matchup advantage,
and it makes me like, Okay, this makes sense that
the Colts are big favorites. The Titans have a horrendous
offensive line, the Colts have a very good defensive front.
Cam Ward is probably gonna be under a lot of pressure.

(44:27):
The Titans have terrible, terrible, no good, very bad wide receivers,
and I just look at this Colt and I just
want someone to beat the piss out of these corners, man,
because these guys are awful. But I just don't know
if the Titans can do it. But then I just
keep coming back to the biggest problem with this game
is if you just looked at these rosters on Week

(44:50):
one and these teams played Week one, the Colts would
have been like minus one and now they're minus four.

Speaker 2 (44:56):
So the line has tightened. Believe it or not, The
Titans were one point favorites on the opener in THEA like.

Speaker 3 (45:03):
This is crazy the five based on I mean, yeah,
the Colts were good last week.

Speaker 5 (45:07):
Week one.

Speaker 3 (45:08):
They played a dried out husk of a Miami team
that quit before the season even started. They already quit.
That was embarrassing. Ten of the Bills at halftime right now,
you know that's not great. But the Bills did miss
an easy field goal, and two has always pretty much

(45:29):
been able to move the ball in this defense. That's
I actually I texted Chris, if you want to gamble
on this game. I feel like Miami and the over
are probably correlated. I was like, there's no chance in
the world that they're going to get stops on the Bill.

Speaker 2 (45:43):
Just for fun, and we're on a tangent here, I
did the exact opposite. I bet the Bills and Ray
Davis's rushing total over. That was like, I just want
to have a sweat in this game, so I'm just
gonna bet something correlated, and you're right, that's the other
correlated side.

Speaker 3 (45:58):
I just I just didn't see way my he could
get a stop, So like, if they cover, it's going
to be in a shootout. So anyways, yeah, I just
getting back to this game between Titans and Colts. I
just I just don't see how these teams can be
this far apart when they were a win apart in
preseason markets and now we're just like Colts minus four

(46:20):
on the road, no problem.

Speaker 5 (46:21):
I mean, I just can't get that high.

Speaker 3 (46:23):
Man.

Speaker 2 (46:23):
Yeah, Like I said, if everything we know to be
true is true, this is just a spot we absolutely
have to take. Seventy percent of the DraftKings handle is
on the Indianapolis Cults, So here we are.

Speaker 3 (46:37):
What's his name, Brian Callahan? You bum figure your life out, man,
Like this is embarrassing coaching so far. Like, if you
are a professional, this is a cover. It's that simple, man.

Speaker 2 (46:51):
I agree, all right. So the card Titans, Brown's, Patriots, Bengals, Texans.
Let's dig into the seven consent pics that did not
make the car and we can buzz through these quickly.
The first one is another divisional tilt where the Falcons Carolina.

(47:13):
The Falcons are five and a half point favorites, and
this is just another one of those spots where everybody
knows the Carolina Panthers are a horrific football team, bottom three.
Many people have them as thirty two of thirty two
because the Saints have at least shown signs of life,

(47:34):
and that Carolina backdoor last week was about as fake
as it comes. Eighty three percent of the handle is
on the Falcons. We will talk about the Falcons perhaps
in the Survivor segment, and yet it is a division
game with a dome team playing outside where you just

(47:57):
have to pant their nose. In my opinion, take the
dog in this spot.

Speaker 3 (48:02):
Well you're laughing, yeah, because I just don't know when
we're gonna see Carolina from second half of last year.
If that team showed up, this line would be absolutely ridiculous.
We saw them beat the Falcons outright when the Falcons
needed to win the game too. I think it was
at home too to make the playoffs. Okay, and Bryce

(48:26):
Young came out and shit on this defense embarrassed them. Okay,
So can that guy come back? I don't know, man,
I'm very worried that this could be a run straight
game for the Falcons. We talked about how the Rams
have shored up their weakness against physicality. I don't know

(48:47):
if the Panthers have, or maybe if they have, I
don't know if they will in this game because multiple
pieces that they brought in to shore up that defense.
Look like they're going to be out and they might
be back to historically run defense. And when the other
team has Jon Robinson, that's what made me basically put
this slow. But I know in the deepest cockles in

(49:10):
my heart that the Panthers are the right side, but
I just couldn't bring myself to put them higher.

Speaker 2 (49:15):
I say all this, I do not have real American
dollars on Carolina. I can't get myself to do it.
I think in a contest it's better than that betting
real American dollars. But I will say one of the
bets I did make this week, the game you were
alluding to, Mo. The final score was forty one to
thirty eight. So yes, I'm holding an over forty four
ticket if these two teams get after it again on Sun.

Speaker 4 (49:38):
Bryce's home road splits are real, and this is his
first home game of the season. I think that's that's
my biggest fear as we look at Survivor as well,
so I think it's the price game is in there.
I don't know if it's going to.

Speaker 5 (49:51):
Come this week.

Speaker 4 (49:52):
Piss of Wine absolutely just buried and this Falcons defensive
line looking pretty good. But I think that's my concern
is that this this is just the week they wake.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
Up A couple of back to back leverage spots here,
the first one not so much as my fighting travel
to Tampa to take on the two and zero blocks
or six and a half point favorites in the contest.

(50:23):
This was above seven, it was at seven. It's still
showing seven in some places, also seeing some six and
a halfs, and the fact that it is below seven
leads me to believe that not very many people are
going to click the Jets in this spot, and might
even be enticed to click the bucks, especially watching them

(50:44):
and Baker swaggering two and zero like Buka offensive Rookie
of the Year hype wearing the Creamsicles home opener. And
then of course you have a backup quarterback for New
York with fields Can Cuss and Tyron Tarad Taylor in
the game. Oh that's why you're wearing the number five

(51:05):
for tone.

Speaker 5 (51:06):
I thought we would do the damn thing.

Speaker 4 (51:08):
I thought we would have the jots on the cards,
so I can't prepared and alas we do not.

Speaker 5 (51:12):
That's a little.

Speaker 2 (51:12):
Sad talk about it. You're the highest on Gangard.

Speaker 3 (51:16):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (51:16):
The thing with Tarad is he's seen he's seen it
all before. He can read defenses because he's seen everything
in his time in this league. So there are no
surprises with this guy. And he's going to keep you
in games because he doesn't turn the ball over. He
makes the right reads, he will check it down, he
throws the ball away, he'll take a sack if it's

(51:38):
the smarter play and not put the team at risk
of handing the ball over. That's what I love about Tarad.
That's what I loved about him while he was at
the Bills. He got run out of this town because
he was boring, but he got the job done and
he continues to get the job done, and I think
that keeps the Jets in this game against the Bucks
team that's really beat up offensively. This offensive line, my
god man, it's good Decy. They just lost the right guard.

(52:01):
Wurfs might come back this week, is like what condition
is he going to be in. It's very concerning for
the Bucks right now. Igbuka hasn't practiced yet this week either,
So I love the spot for the Jets with a
two point move off the look ahead too. Obviously, Trod

(52:22):
has something to do with that, But I like them
to keep this within seven for sure. And but the
team that looked the worst last week certainly in play
with the Jets here too.

Speaker 2 (52:32):
This all comes down to what is the Jets coaching
staff going to do in this game? Because what happened
last week is they got punched in the mouth in
eight minutes and had no CounterPunch, especially Tanner angstrand he
didn't know what to do. The McDermott came out and

(52:53):
blitz his corners on every early down, and Tanner had
no CounterPunch to it, and everything just got lost. Everything
slipped away, and there was just no recovering from it.
So now, after getting your ass kicked right, getting down
to the mat, having a week to look back at
your mistakes and fix those things, what does it look

(53:13):
like on Sunday? And then on top of that, you
have a different quarterback than the one you've been preparing
with all summer. So and like you said, Brett, it
should be easier for Tyrod to play catchup and to assimilate,
but it does also call for using a different script
and calling different plays and fields. His running component was

(53:35):
a big part of the offense, how much of that
changes and how comfortable is Tanner changing changing the play
calls up? So I think a lot of this is
going to come down to Jets coaching, and if they're
like really bad and completely inept, I could see another
snowball avalanche effort. If they're closer to the league average,
then I think with these Bucks injuries, this line is

(53:58):
kind of crazy. There's a lot in the air.

Speaker 4 (54:02):
This is the third time in a row I've been
against the Bucks in my top five, so I'm really
just Martin Galing.

Speaker 2 (54:06):
I think the Martin Gale.

Speaker 3 (54:09):
Well, at what point do we admit the Bucks have
been pretty lucky?

Speaker 5 (54:14):
Yes, where they're at.

Speaker 4 (54:15):
They've been lucky for the past year and a half.
Man Like, where when does it end?

Speaker 2 (54:20):
Something? Turnover to please?

Speaker 4 (54:24):
Is gonna put a stop to it?

Speaker 2 (54:25):
The problem? The problem is that Jets can't turn anybody over.
They can't catch an interception. The ball never bounces to
them if it's on the ground. Never. The worst fumble
luck you'll ever see is Gangrey. So need some positive
variance in that direction. This next one is one thousand leverage.

(54:45):
I man, I love this game so much. It is
Broncos at Chargers Chargers minus two and a half, seeing
threes everywhere, and I I think people are going to
stare at this subfield goal. Watch justin Herbert, who legitimately

(55:06):
is an MVP candidate. I joked about Daniel Jones earlier, Herbert,
the way he's played legit MVP candidate. You've got Cowherd
saying Harbaugh's the greatest coach of all time, Jim Harbaugh.
All this momentum for the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Broncos stunk
up the joint last week. I think this is just

(55:27):
a beautiful spot and rule of Brett. The fact that
we're not getting the three and people are going to
be less inclined to pick it makes me want to
love Denver even more.

Speaker 4 (55:35):
Brett, Can I just say I dug into a lot
of data, a lot of circuit data before the season.
I found that minus two and a half is the
most popular number that people click in the contest, which
should not come as a surprise, but it was confirmed
by six years of data. So yeah, for leverage purposes
here as well. I do like Denver off the loss,
and you know, people eyeing this Chargers team as a

(55:56):
potential Super Bowl contender, but I still I still love
the Broncos. I think I'm the highest on the Broncos
in our power rankings, and I just see these teams
as very similar as far as like market rating.

Speaker 2 (56:08):
So I definitely see a world this is where like
game theory meets capping a little bit. I definitely see
a world where we've been told for many years now
that defense is not as sticky as offense. I see
a world where Denver's defense takes a meaningful step back
this year and they're more like an average team than
they were last year. Right, And if they're more like
an average team, that means a lot more lands on

(56:31):
bo Nick's shoulders. And I don't really rate Bonix, so
things could go pair shaped very quickly for the Broncos.
That being said, the Denver defense could also still be
really freaking good and they could just get back on
track here against Harbaugh and the amount of leverage that's
going to be president in the contest. Yeah, really makes

(56:52):
me excited about Denver in this spot. These next couple,
nobody really had a strong opinion on them, so we
could I've said buzz through them, but we can actually
get through these quickly Monday Night football, the Detroit Lions
travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. The Ravens
are four and a half point favorites in this contest

(57:14):
look ahead with six. It's slowly been creeping closer to
a field go. I don't know how much closer it'll
get than the number circus hanging in this contest. And Brett,
you have the highest opinion on the Ravens. Correct, yes
in this spot soft babbling your top one.

Speaker 4 (57:33):
Yeah, I just think the Ravens are the best team
in the NFL and this number off the Lions win
last week just doesn't feel right to me. I think
it should be five and a half. So really, this
was just a mispriced in my opinion.

Speaker 2 (57:47):
Easy cap for me. The Lions got pumped by what
we project to be a very good team. They played
their opening home game against their former coordinator who might
be over his head and might not have a very
good team on his hand, and they punked him. Now
they have to go on the road against a very
good team one a perhaps one alone in the NFL.

(58:10):
Very different scenario for Detroit. So unsurprising that we all
see the rape. We're all laying it with the Ravens
in this spot. This next one Cardinals at Niners. Once
again Brett with the highest opinion in this contest, and
it's a team he's been high on since the summer.
So those Arizona Cardinals plus the two and a half,

(58:33):
I'm just.

Speaker 4 (58:33):
Not sold that this version of the Niners is better
than Arizona. I mean, what evidence do we have from
either team that either of them is better at football
at this point? Like with Mac Jones under center, I'm
just going to take the dog here. I just think
this is coin flip territory and with more people probably
taking the Niners at this number might get a little leverage.

(58:55):
I mean, we're talking about it's not even on the car.
But this is what is my thinking as I was
happy in this game, is the Cardinals are probably going
to be the leverage side, and they might just be
the better football team too. So yeah, it's a pretty
easy one for me.

Speaker 2 (59:07):
I'm worried about Party coming back too early as well.

Speaker 3 (59:11):
That's a hold on a second. I was just gonna
say that, can we talk about max leverage? Absolute max leverage?
What do we do if Brock Purty plays and the
number goes to like three and a half. Do we
just have to change one of our picks to Cardinals
because we all think they still have a shot.

Speaker 2 (59:29):
Maybe. Yeah, it's definitely a discussion worth having. ODB, you
can you can skip, smash the skip button for three
or four times, but it's true, Like, if Purdy comes
back injured, is that the best decision other than just
rolling out McCorkle and just letting him operate for one

(59:49):
more meet, one more week. Right, we've seen this before
party right when he came back early. Granted that was
from CTE, but he was awful coming off of the
injury fire call in that spot. So yeah, I'm definitely
willing to have a conversation about the Cardinals if Purdy
is ruled in and we do get a significant line
move here to create true leverage, and then the last

(01:00:12):
one mo we'll give it to you. You're you're out,
You've folded, you're done. Chefs at Giants, you've got Giants
plus five and your top five, you're done, casey rip
super Bowl canceled.

Speaker 3 (01:00:26):
Well, isn't this just another ugly illumine Chiefs win by three? Like,
isn't this just another hideous, awful win where nobody walks
away happy about the Chiefs.

Speaker 2 (01:00:47):
Roger makes the call, Hey, you know we let the
Eagles cheat last week, got to give a couple to Patty,
and this we're gonna have. You know, you know, Swift
is going to be there. It's New York. Gotta give
some calls. Patrick's way. You know what. The one thing
I hear everybody talking about this week, Everyone's like Patrick,

(01:01:11):
you know, you know, Patrick Mahomes is worried about the offense,
but he's running a lot. Everyone's caught on to playoff
pat running. That's the thing now that we're not the
only ones that notice. But he's like he's taking off
a ton. He isn't.

Speaker 4 (01:01:26):
Am I the only one who feels like he's slower.
He looks slower.

Speaker 2 (01:01:32):
I mean, they backed on a couple of Welb's. I
think that's good though. I think having frame is is
good in a league where you just can get hit
and knocked around a little bit. I feel way more
comfortable when Mahomes breaks pocket than when Jane Daniels does.
Like Jane Daniels some somehow escaped last year not getting
critical injury, and I was like, oh, maybe maybe those

(01:01:53):
like cartoonish highlight reels of him at LSU getting blown
up like like the ACME explosion box in Looney Tunes.
Like every time he got hit, I was like, oh,
maybe that guy coached out of him, And then no,
he was getting his asked handed to him against the packers.
So those fears remain for Jane Daniels. Okay, so those

(01:02:13):
are the consensus picks that didn't make the card. It
is now time to discuss mon Nowara, joining of the content.

Speaker 5 (01:02:25):
Where are you getting forty percent?

Speaker 4 (01:02:27):
Because I'm seeing multiple projection sites at thirty.

Speaker 3 (01:02:33):
Not even number one in the Survivor You're.

Speaker 4 (01:02:35):
You're looking at Survivor grid, right, that's not Circa. Circa
is very different content.

Speaker 3 (01:02:40):
I get that, But I think people are gonna coo,
we're going from twenty to forty.

Speaker 4 (01:02:47):
I would say at least at least thirty for sure.
I think it's probably gonna be closer to thirty five. It's
just it opens up everything. Everybody looking at their schedule
every week, and if you use Seattle this week, it
just opens everything up for twenty weeks.

Speaker 5 (01:03:02):
So I get it.

Speaker 4 (01:03:04):
I get why people are doing it.

Speaker 3 (01:03:06):
Okay, well, what are my options then, Seattle. I'm like, well,
you already made your choice. I haven't made my choice.
I don't want to be on forty percent. It's not
like I think Seattle is undervalued. I don't think they're
overvalued either. I clicked on the Saints in my picks,
but I thought that line was completely fair, So I

(01:03:27):
feel fine obviously taking a seven point a home favorite
against a quarterback who I agree with Brett has played
better than I expected, but also is going on the
road to face a good defense and a tough place
to play. I think it's a really bad spot, and
my honestly only concern is the defensive secondary injuries for

(01:03:51):
possibly facing a quite good receiving corps I think in
the Saints, so that.

Speaker 5 (01:03:57):
That worries me here.

Speaker 3 (01:03:58):
Olave has really yet to get off, and I'm like
still feeling good about all my Lave ownership. I scooped
all of the old Jave I could in draft season.
I think he's ready to break out. But I also
just think, yeah, it's a tough spot for a bad
quarterback on the road here against a good defense. But
that being said, I'm just like looking at these other

(01:04:19):
I obviously already missed the boat on Buffalo, and I
already am on the record with I think Cleveland is
the side in that game against Green Bay. So at
that point I'm just like digging much much deeper, even
if I don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:04:36):
Even if you take Seattle will be underweight on Seattle
versus the field, So like it's it's fine.

Speaker 2 (01:04:42):
I'm definitely fine having one of us on Seattle.

Speaker 3 (01:04:45):
For sure.

Speaker 2 (01:04:46):
I was gonna say. The issue is the pivot, right, Like,
who are we pivoting to? Is it that Green Bay?
On the road in Cleveland? Again, we all picked the Browns,
but there's a pretty big middle between one and seven
to hit there? Is it the aforementioned Kansas City Chiefs?

(01:05:09):
Maybe not, because we all selected the Giants, and the
Chiefs play both the Thanksgiving and Christmas slates, so those
are under consideration. The ones that I came in circling
were the Chiefs and the Falcons. But then the more
I looked at the Falcons, the more worried I get
about this spot being in division outside. But man, the Panthers,

(01:05:36):
the Panthers really really really stink, and the Falcons, like
the Seahawks, don't have much future value. The really only
other one that stands out to me is host to
Miami in Week eight. That's about it. So an opportunity

(01:05:56):
to get the Falcons at single digit ownership in a
rough spot. I don't know, it's tough. Where are you
lean A.

Speaker 4 (01:06:07):
Brett haven't made my decision yet. It's down between the
Falcons and the Packers. I really do like the spot
for Atlanta against this Panthers team, but it does make
me a little queasy. As I said, just the splits
for Bryce Young here in his home opener, it makes
me nervous. Even though the Atlanta defense does look stronger.

(01:06:28):
The Packers have a good amount of future value. Some
of that's baked into Thanksgiving, even though they are projected
to be an underdog in that game against Detroit. I
took Detroit last week already. If I take green Bay here,
I'm just punting that game and pretending like it doesn't
exist on Thanksgiving, which means it leaves me three games
on that slate, which honestly like I'm okay with. I

(01:06:50):
just need to be careful with the other six teams.
The other spots for green Bay at Dallas next week,
then home against the Bengals, home against Carolina at Giants
home against Chicago. The thing is like, outside of Carolina,
this is the worst team they'll play all year, and
we're looking at ten percent ownership in circa maybe fifteen,

(01:07:13):
And like, I'm okay with that. At seven and a half,
with extra rest off the you know, off the Thursday
night game, I think it does line up as a
potential whitewash, especially especially if Flacco is in a negative
game environment against this defense. I just love this Packers
team and I would prefer to use them. I'd prefer
to use them at Lambeau, but they're so dialed in

(01:07:33):
right now that I think you just I think I
would rather use them now before something crazy happens. And
that's that's definitely something I consider. Just look at what
happened with like Burrow and Daniels this past week. Like
Daniels is expected to be out just for a week,
but season injury, see the season ending injuries happen to
star players, and that can significantly shift how this survivor

(01:07:54):
contest plays out. So I think almost taking one of
these elite teams early and then hope that value opens
up later in unexpected places is fine. So I think
I am leaning Packers, even though we all like the
Browns on the number.

Speaker 2 (01:08:10):
Well, another thing we all like is the Jets, but
the Buccaneers are obviously not. So what is the ownership
going to be on Tampa Bay? That That's what it
comes down to for me, because they don't have very
many good spots either. The only one that pops out
is the bottleneck in Week fourteen against the Saints. Like,
where would the Bucks need to be? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:08:32):
I think ten to fifteen percent? Probably in the Bucks. Yeah,
Actually I don't know because so many people are going
to be on the Hawks and.

Speaker 2 (01:08:40):
Like, and so many people have the bills, and so
many people have bet the Jets for them to have
come off seven, right, So you would think that there's
at least this worry in the back of people's minds that, oh,
if I'm betting the Jets and the Bucks have all
these injuries, maybe that's going to make them worried about
the spot so they won't take Tampa. Like again, I

(01:09:04):
don't like having preferring the dog and then selecting the
favorite in Survivor, but I really am reticent to be
with the massas with Sham Darnald a job pool genius.

Speaker 4 (01:09:19):
Yeah, I know Pole Genius has Tampa thirteen percent, green
Bay thirteen percent, Atlanta eight.

Speaker 2 (01:09:25):
So if those equities are equal, I would obviously much
rather have Green Bay over over Tampa Bay. If equity
is equal. Obviously you are punting some future rally for
the Packers because they are a great team. But myself,
speaking for myself, at least I've not burned Buffalo or
Baltimore though too, good teams that it's nice to have

(01:09:47):
in the back of your pocket.

Speaker 4 (01:09:49):
I think that's why. Yeah, I think that's why Seattle
makes sense for MO two, is that he has used Baltimore. Yeah, so, yeah,
I take one of those teams that freeze you up
a little bit more.

Speaker 3 (01:09:58):
I mean, I think at those numbers, is Atlanta might
be the play.

Speaker 2 (01:10:03):
It's really I've been I've really been liking Atlanta in
terms of the projections.

Speaker 4 (01:10:09):
You know, I think you and I Rich are gonna
have to talk about it. And I don't know where
Downy is either, but like, if we both could.

Speaker 2 (01:10:16):
Have one, he just have one.

Speaker 4 (01:10:18):
Atlanta And if if you if I take Atlanta, maybe
you go Chiefs because I can't take Chiefs because I've
taken Lions, because I can't have two. I can't have
both of the teams that play both holiday weeks. So yeah, yeah,
I mean I love this.

Speaker 2 (01:10:33):
In what world do the Chiefs lose on Sunday? But
what is it? What does a Chief's loss look like
on Sunday night football?

Speaker 5 (01:10:39):
I'll tell you what. That's what everyone else is thinking.

Speaker 3 (01:10:42):
I had multiple people text me, well, there's no way
the Chiefs could go zero to three, So Chiefs money line.

Speaker 2 (01:10:48):
But what does it look like's really gonna let Russ
just throw moon balls?

Speaker 3 (01:10:52):
No?

Speaker 5 (01:10:53):
Right, I don't think we just.

Speaker 2 (01:10:54):
Got to shell it out and make Russ play pocket
passing quarterback right.

Speaker 3 (01:11:00):
And I think, well, I think he'll heat him up
at times too, and this, and we know how bad
Russ is against pressure, and I think this Chiefs cornerbacks
actually play the deep ball pretty well. They have in
the past couple of years. So I don't like Washington's
offense much. But I do have some concerns about Kansas
City's offense. Obviously, I kind of like the matchup for

(01:11:24):
them in the sense of I don't think they're gonna
come out and try to pound their heads into the
middle of this Giants line. Andy's already shown he'll just
throw every play if running the ball isn't working, which
is good, but at the same time, throwing to the
guys they're throwing too, it's gonna be hard to run

(01:11:45):
away from a team. So that's why I ultimately clicked Giants,
and I thought maybe the line was a hair too high.

Speaker 5 (01:11:52):
But do I hate the Chiefs as a survivor pick?

Speaker 3 (01:11:56):
Not really, But it's just hard for me when I
like so many underdogs this week. Like you said, Rich,
just I my experience and Survivor tells me that if
you like the dog, you don't want to take the
other side and survivor just I don't think it's very good.
And uh yeah, you just end up like feeling like

(01:12:19):
an idiot basically if the favorite loses when you when
you thought they were overvalued in the first place. But
I guess I might be willing to do it when
the ownership is as low as Atlantas.

Speaker 4 (01:12:29):
Though, Yeah, I don't really look at it that way.
I don't look at what I like on the spread.
I just look at win probability versus pick popularity versus
like future value. I kind of I take the the
the Ats number out of it even though ats and
win probability are correlated.

Speaker 2 (01:12:51):
Correct, Yeah, teams that cover dogs that cover tend to win.
What is it thirty three percent of the time? I
think historically something like that.

Speaker 4 (01:12:59):
But I even still, Oh, we don't know anything right
clearly after one five week what the hell do we know?

Speaker 2 (01:13:05):
So I'm just gonna trust the numbers. Man, oh Man, Yeah,
be sure to say tuned to AGRIDI and gamble on Twitter.
We're gonna have some further discussions as we enter into
the weekend. Oh, I'd wanted to bring up one more
Chiefs point? What is what's Jack McKinnon up to?

Speaker 3 (01:13:26):
Mo?

Speaker 2 (01:13:26):
Can somebody that can catch the ball out of the
backfields put a jersey on? Like? It's killing me?

Speaker 3 (01:13:31):
Well? Why are they so yeah? Why are they so
scared to put this seventh round rookie halfway?

Speaker 5 (01:13:38):
He touched the ball in the preseason? What's going on here?

Speaker 2 (01:13:40):
Man?

Speaker 3 (01:13:41):
Did anyone watch Kareem Hunt when he caught that ball
in the flat against the Eagles. That might be the
slowest I've ever seen an NFL running back move.

Speaker 2 (01:13:52):
It's unbelievable. We got these we got bashall tutons going
in on Day three, and the Chiefs just couldn't pick
up a bashall toot and just stick them out there, Like,
come on, man.

Speaker 3 (01:14:03):
I've just been like how many straight years that the
Chiefs don't just use a random fourth round pick on
a running back rule of steama just click any sec
running back in the fourth round and it can't.

Speaker 5 (01:14:17):
Be that bad? How bad can it be?

Speaker 3 (01:14:20):
Now?

Speaker 2 (01:14:20):
I'm right there with you, all right. I feel like
I feel like there's gonna be some carnage this week,
maybe maybe never this pool. I've been saying this in
the Discord bit that ly Slash Discord moves get involved.
This Survivor is just gonna be When are the Saints,

(01:14:42):
Panthers and Giants land mines going to explode? That is
just going to be the twenty twenty five Survivor's season.
When do those land There's gonna be three or four
times where those land mines blow up and eliminate a
large shoke of the pool. And it's just a matter
of when. So all right, follow these guys on Twitter
at Brett Colson, c O double L s O N

(01:15:03):
fallow at mona or n U double W A r
A H. I'm at rich T Ryan Best of luck
in your betting ventures. We go at you guys next week.

Speaker 3 (01:15:14):
Yes,