2025 Week 7: Vibes Cast

The Collective have to record a day early with no injury reports, so it's vibes and leans for Week 7.

Join the Discord: bit.ly/discordmoose

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
And alcome back great. I am Cambell, the only podcast
that puts its money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
Rich Ryan, and I'm joined by the insire Collective, The Disciple,
Bret Colson, Donnie DP Peters, and the Resident moves himself

(00:29):
Mo Nowara. If you're watching this on YouTube, please like
the video and subscribe to the channel. Listeners, rate and
reveal on your Podcatcher of choice five stars only, Like
Jalen Ramsey, coming to you a day early. The Collective
has some happenings going on this week. I'm headed to

(00:51):
the East Coast for a wedding. I'll actually be at
one of the games on the slate this weekend. It's
got a concert, the guy's got some life things. So
we're coming to you with what I've been calling in
our group chat, a vibes cast. These are very much leans.
People have made selections, but I honestly I start my

(01:14):
process normally on Wednesday, sometimes in early in the week.
If I see something that's completely a miss, I'll fire
a wager in. But a lot of my capping is
done here on Wednesday, so we'll keep the format the same.
In terms of split games, lone wolves, and then instead
of picks, we'll do liens and I'll tell you guys

(01:35):
what the collective lean is right now, and then of
course get into Survivor. Three straight winning weeks for the collective,
landing a three and two body blow last week after
consecutive four and one weeks. So I think the tinkering Brett,
Brett has been standing on a table for years that
we should be tinkering. We've been doing more tinkering on

(01:56):
Saturday mornings than Brett. Last week. Yeah, I bullieve you.
A couple of weeks ago. Last week you switched out
a winner for a winner. Two straight winners for you. So, Brett,
I want to thank you for getting us to tinker
a little bit more and make some more optimal decisions.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
Well, why why weren't as idiotic that we were like,
we should have all the information going into our final card,
and we were just like, eh, you know, we made
our picks three days ago. It's fine. No, we're actually
trying to win now, and and I appreciate that.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
And you guys can always get our updated I mean
our updated thoughts to the minute in the discord bit
dot ly slash discord moves always some good back and
forth in there with regards to sides, and I mean Survivor.
Survivor's the best going back and forth one of the plays.
What's the leverage the different contests that people are in
on Splash, et cetera. So that's one of my favorite
channels throughout the week. But let's get into these games.

(02:47):
And we'll start with some split contest, whether or two
us on one side and tuo us on the other.
And let's start with a game in the AFS. See nope,
I'm looking at the wrong week that telling this is
a day early. We'll start with Bucks Lions, one of

(03:08):
the two Monday night games, another doubleheader this week on
ABC and ESPN. And this is a fun game, a
playoff rematch not last year, but of two years ago
between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions. My

(03:30):
buttons are stuck, and I'm very surprised to see that
Bert Manatti who has everybody filled out their whole car
Brett Brett Freelance. This week, he just fixed six games,
didn't click for the other ones, but this is one
of them where he is laying the five and a
half points with Dan Campbell Jared Goff and Detroit.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
Sit well, this is just me Martin galeing the Bucks
and they continue to cover every single week. It's just
gonna happen. I feel like this, this really is a
great spot to sell Tampa and you're also buying low
on Detroit. Like Baker Mayfield has been awesome. He's the
league MVP right now easily. I mean it's easily a
top five quarterback in the league right now by any

(04:14):
metric you look at. But I think this sets up
as a brutal spot for him in prime time on
the road at Ford Field against the Lions team coming
off a loss. And the problem with Baker this week
is simple, like he's just he's just running out of
help like Mike Evans, Igbuka Godwin, McMillan, Bucky Irving all

(04:34):
either out or trending that way. They might get Mike
Evans this week, but even if he does play, he's
far from one hundred percent coming off the hamstrings. So
if all those guys are out, I guess we'll have
to see what Circa gives us with this, because I mean,
this this should close Lion's minus seven if all those
guys are out that's why.

Speaker 1 (04:56):
I like it.

Speaker 2 (04:58):
I mean, you gave us five and a half, right,
I love the Lions at five and a half. But
even like, even with everybody healthy, if they are healthy,
like Tampa's pass defense is just a problem. They're bottom
five in both EPA and success rate versus dropbacks. And
then there's the intangible angle that Dan Campbell his teams

(05:19):
don't lose coming off a loss and they cover every
single time. They're eleven and zero against the spread, awful
loss every single time. And this is where Campbell shines though,
like he gets his guys up and what better spot
than at home in primetime. It just feels too good
to be true at this number five and a half,

(05:39):
I'm really interested to see what Circle gives us.

Speaker 1 (05:41):
Though, So I said, very rarely do I put bets
into my account before my Wednesday process. I've I've got
Bucks and over in my account and that's Bucks money
bent life. Because with a total of this high, I
do think the points are meaningless. And I'm getting close

(06:02):
to five plus five hundred on that parlay, So I
think there's a pretty high correlation that if the Becks,
if the Bucks do find a way to win this game.
It's going to be a game with which there are
a ton of points because both of these past defenses
you talk about the Bucks, the Lions are injured, and
now they're going to be without Brian Branch, who decided
to punch Judio Smith Schuster in the face like a

(06:25):
sore loser after losing in Arrowhead. So I'm very much
concerned about this Lion's defense. And at this point doesn't
matter who Baker is throwing to when something something called
Tez Johnson is just ripping down the seam for a
forty yard touchdown. So I think this is going to

(06:46):
be a classic circus spot where it's going to be
thirteen hundred on each side, no leverage to be had,
a game that everybody's going to be interested in, especially
if this game does get closer to a full seven,
because like you said, people are, like we've said many times,
people love the Lions. So I don't think this number

(07:07):
going up is going to deter anybody from clicking them,
especially when they're looking at no egg Buka, No Godwin,
and a hobbled Evans. But I do think there are
enough people out there that are Baker pilled who are
going to click this this team, especially if they're getting
a ton of points inside. No, I just want to
get your take real quick on this one. You had

(07:28):
this in the middle, but you've had your finger on
the pulse of the Bucks here. Baker's been your guy,
so I was surprised to see you click the other
side and lay the points with Detroit.

Speaker 3 (07:39):
Yeah, just if you think something Tez Johnson is anonymous,
wait till you hear about something Cameron Johnson. Mike Evans
maybe coming back, but even if he is, he's maybe
not going to be one hundred percent.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (07:53):
It looks like Chris Godwin's going to be out, looks
like Bucky er Ring's going to be out now obviously
goat Abukas so and I think the third string left
guard got hurt or right guard, whatever it was, or
they're down to a third stringer. This is the week
that it finally matters. I think that the other players
aren't good on Tampa Bay. So yeah, with a pissed

(08:17):
off Lions team, I had this one at six, so
a little bit of value for me maybe, but not.
It wouldn't be something i'd bet, But I guess when
it comes to the Lions if they win by a little,
if they can win by a lot, they're gonna win
by a lot. So that's probably the team where even

(08:40):
if you think there's maybe only a little bit of
value on the Lions, you might as well just bet
it because they're they're gonna cover more.

Speaker 2 (08:47):
Often than not when they when they win.

Speaker 1 (08:49):
Yeah, obviously I've put a stake on the Bucks having
a chance to win this game out right. If I
were to bet anything else in this game, it would
probably be laying the points with the Lions, just because
we've seen this so many times that when they get
a team that's down and out, they establish leads and
they extend them. So if I look up on Sunday
and I see that the Lions have won this game

(09:10):
by heaps, I'm I'm not certainly not going to be
surprised because that's Lions alts. Yeah, this that's within their DNA.
Let's get to a very fascinating cap as the greatest
football team is the greatest level team travel to Cleveland
to take on the Browns something. Dylan Gabriel and the

(09:35):
Cleveland Browns are currently showing as full field golf favorites
in Pro football in twenty twenty five with a total
of thirty nine and a half and a forecast of
seventeen mile an hour wins and an eighty four percent
chance of rain. And some people are interested in clicking

(09:55):
this Browns team because you have a Dolphins team where
the quarterback is standing at the podium saying that guys
are skipping meetings, and then when the coach himself gets
on the podium, he's saying that the quarterback is incorrect,
and they're essentially fighting out in the open. People have
been assigning a dead man walking quality to this Dolphins

(10:19):
team to start the season. Everybody is just waiting for
the ripcord to be pulled, but it hasn't yet. The
Dolphins nearly snuck away with a victory last week. Of
course they did not, with the Chargers storming back to
win at the end. So there was part of me
entering this cap that wants to join everybody in burying

(10:40):
the Dolphins and saying, you know it's over. This is
this Brown's defense is just going to eat them alive.
But I just, I mean, I clicked Browns. But with
this total being so low and this Browns offense being
so inept itself. I certainly can't find myself laying the points,
but Brett did it, and it's one of leans this week.

Speaker 2 (11:02):
Big lane here, I love the Browns. Listen Dylan Gabriels.
He's looked like the worst quarterback in the NFL. I
don't think that's even a debate. And normally this pick
would have several red flags. A quarterback that doesn't beat
the threshold is favored. Never lay points with bad teams
is what we say every week. But I can't get
past the mismatch and the trenches here, and I want

(11:24):
to take advantage of Cleveland's really only strength against Miami's
biggest flaw, and that is up front. The Dolphins defense
has been a disaster over the last three weeks. Six
hundred yards on the ground allowed that is historically bad
in the run game. One of those came last week
against the Chargers, their third string running back behind an

(11:45):
offensive line that was missing three starters. Like this, this
defense is.

Speaker 1 (11:51):
Just throw a third string running come on.

Speaker 2 (11:55):
But yeah, now they're facing a Cleveland team that's finally
getting settled back in after two chaotic weeks quarterback transition.
Like Dylan Gabriel's first two starts came against very good defense.
He had almost no prep time, and now he's got
his first full normal practice week and his first game
against a defense that's outside like the top twelve or

(12:17):
top ten, and that matters. And meanwhile, the Browns run
game is coming together. Quinn Shawn Judkins is this dude
is He's kind of a beast, and I see this
being his big breakout week. He's explosive through contact, and
Miami's front seven is just they're miserable at defending gap
runs and anything outside the tackles. Saw huge game here.

(12:39):
I think, especially with the weather conditions too, the Browns
are just gonna run all over Miami, and Cleveland's defense
is built to dominate in this kind of environment. I
think this sets up perfectly for Cleveland, a physical, motivated
team back home facing a team that is soft and
falling apart. I think that's a real thing that's happen

(13:00):
in Miami. So I really like the Browns here. I'm
even talking about Browns and survivor. I think I just
I love that here.

Speaker 1 (13:07):
To put some numbers to that rushing angle, the Browns
are ninth in rush offense EPA. Well, the Dolphins are
thirtieth in rush defense EPA. As a Jets fan, I
did watch the Jets just walk down the field against
them in the run game. And yeah, of course last
week kamani Va Deel. I cut up some clips of
him this week, and it's just unbelievable how wide open

(13:30):
some of the holes are that he was running through.
But MO laying three points in professional football with a
quarterback that likely does not make the threshold to play
in this sport.

Speaker 3 (13:44):
Yeah, passing offense, passing offense, passing offense. And that's all
I was looking at here. This is two really bad teams.
One of them can complete passes, one of them can't.
But I guess if the weather's going to be that bad,
I didn't look at that, so maybe I mean, I mean,
Judkins has looked great.

Speaker 1 (14:03):
You can't deny that this team can run the ball.

Speaker 3 (14:06):
But yeah, Dylan Gabriel, I didn't know if he was
a pro quarterback, and I was stunned to see somebody
use the third round pick on him. And now I
haven't really seen any reason to doubt what I was
thinking when I saw him in college.

Speaker 1 (14:25):
And then.

Speaker 3 (14:27):
I don't know man as bad as Dylan Gabriel is
too somebody catch the ball when he actually throws it
to you. Harold Fannin stinks. And I say that as
somebody with some Harold Fannin shares in fantasy and he's
putting up some numbers for me. He sucks, he can't catch.
And Jerry Judy had another abysmal drop. I mean, this

(14:51):
team is an.

Speaker 1 (14:52):
Embarrassment in the passing game.

Speaker 3 (14:53):
So I just I can't click on them, so I
wish Brett the best.

Speaker 1 (15:00):
I just pulled up the RB's DM Quarterback efficiency graph
for the season so far, and just right at the
bottom of the bottom left hand of the linear aggression
is is d Abriel just the wote EPA per play
vote cpoe. Yeah, it's ah. This is not going to
be a fun watch if if you have a mistake

(15:21):
in this game, it is not going to be a
fun contest to lay your eyes on. All right, let's
go to MetLife. Whoever they made the favorite in this
game was going to be a mistake. Either you're making
the Carolina Panthers road favorites in twenty twenty five let

(15:42):
me give them their justo, or you're making the oh
to six New York Jets favorites in twenty twenty five.
But I'm just at the point with this Jets team
where I need to see something before I can buy
into anything. This team has been horrific, and now they

(16:02):
are down Garrett Wilson, and it is likely they're also
going to be down Josh Reynolds, which leaves a fight
to the death for WR one between Tyler Johnson and
Alan Lozard, which is just as bad as it gets.
There's a quote today they asked Justin Feels directly, why

(16:22):
hasn't he been running more? And he said he sustained
a very big contusion on his leg in the Miami game,
so his legs have been hurting him and he has
been less confident tucking and running. So if you've got
a Justin Fields who is playing drop back passer, and

(16:43):
you've got WR one Tyler Johnson or Alan Lozard with
Aaron Glenn at the helm who doesn't seem like he
is going to be able to put it together as
the head coach, I think now that Callahan has gone,
you might just have thirty two of thirty two with
the New York Jets. So I do have Panthers minus

(17:06):
one in my account, I do have the Panthers right
now at the bottom of my top five. I cannot
in good faith put any support behind this Jets team.
Speaking of survivor, I think the Panthers are a very
very very devil survivor no way, not in circa. Not

(17:28):
in circa. But if you're in a rebuy pool, if
you're in a multi picks pool where later in the
season you need to be making multiple picks when ell spread,
are you going to click the Carolina Panthers?

Speaker 2 (17:42):
You might not need to. I mean they'll be at
home against the Saints eventually. Do I'd rather take them
there against the Jets on the road.

Speaker 1 (17:49):
Tell me how you put an X next to the Jets,
Explain it to it.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
Because this is a spot more on the Panthers than
the Jets. I think it was two years ago, maybe three.
Every week I just yinged and yanged with the Alna Filkins,
like they'd win at home, then I'd fade them on
the road, or they lost, then hot back on them
at home. It's the same situation with the Panthers here,
and it's it is printing and now they're on the
road against a winless Jets team. The Panthers have won

(18:14):
two games in a row. Aren't people just gonna cram
Carolina here? Short of three? Like, who's picking? Who's picking
the Jets? This team's pitiful.

Speaker 1 (18:21):
Who's craming nobody? No, nobody's cramming cat Carolina.

Speaker 2 (18:28):
All right, they might not cram, but I think you're
still looking at a potential leverage opportunity. And I do
think the Jets can just get a win here at
home against best football team that does the.

Speaker 1 (18:38):
Jets down ten net passing yards?

Speaker 2 (18:44):
Well, that was against an elite defense.

Speaker 1 (18:46):
Fair, this is this is very minus ten excuse me
minus ten? Let you get the Broncos.

Speaker 2 (18:52):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (18:53):
I just don't know how this team moves the ball
if they're not going to. And this is the issue,
is Tanner Engstrand is designing offense like he's calling plays
for Jared Goff still right that he's looking for a
dropback passer who's going to make reads and deliver the
ball on time. You can't do that when Justin Fields

(19:13):
is your quarterback. He is not capable. He just holds
the ball and holds the ball and holds the ball.
And if he's doing that and not breaking pocket to
run because he's banged up or not comfortable scrambling, Then
what is the point of Austin fields. So I don't know, man,

(19:34):
unless they come out and they just commit to the
bit and they just run Army Georgia Tech offense on Sunday,
which is exactly what they should do with this offensive line,
which can this offensive line is capable of running that.
We have an army of tight ends. Jelanie Woods is
just hanging out. He's never active, but he's an absolute
monster of a human. Get him out there moving people

(19:57):
in the run game, Like, just commit to the bit,
run the Navy offense and see if you can get
a win. I don't know if they're going to try
to do that though, so that makes me terrible. Last
split game Colts at Chargers. This is a game I
had absolutely zero opinion on. I think the line is
pretty much perfect. Once again, it's Mow and Brett on

(20:20):
opposite sides. Mo, you've got the road dog here in
Daniel Jones and Indianapolis. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (20:27):
I mean, the Colts are a really good team, probably
top seven or so. I don't know if the Chargers
are even a good team at this point with the
players they've lost. I correctly guessed that the Dolphins were
gonna put up a real fight in that game, and
they almost won. I don't think the Chargers are very

(20:50):
good anymore, so with all the players they've lost, I
just said, this is wrong team favored for me. I'm
taking the Colts because I think they have a better
all defense and a coach who is doing great work,
and a very varied offense, like this is not an
offense where you can just zero in on anything that

(21:12):
they're doing and just be like, Okay, that's what we're
taking away this week.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
Well, they have.

Speaker 3 (21:18):
Eighty five different ways to move the ball because they
have a great tight end, they can run the ball,
multiple pass catching options. I mean, this is a very
well designed offense that I think is going to be
able to put up some points on the Chargers. And
I don't have confidence in the Chargers to keep up
with anybody anymore that's scoring points because they just the best.

(21:44):
The play that won in the game last week, Justin
Herbert had to shuck off three guys who were sacking him,
and then Lad McConkie had to juke three guys and
it just yeah, I mean that works against the Dolphins,
but good luck against real NFL teams.

Speaker 1 (21:58):
It's so funny. Entering the season. I think I feel
like every team that felt like they were a receiver
away or needed somebody in their receiver room was like,
we should trade for Alec Pearce, we should trade for
Josh Downs. Just to your point of how multiple this
Colts offense is, because they have so many dudes that
can just do different things, and there's so many easy
buttons for Stiking to press in this offense. If there's

(22:20):
certain matchups we saw Downs last week, comes back from
injury immediately has a big impact for that team. So yeah,
this Colts offense just there. Like I said, there's so
many buttons for stike and to press, and as long
as Daniel Jones keeps it together and doesn't make any
turnover worthy mistakes, they're pretty dangerous in every single game
they play. Brett, You've been shk stik and pilled all season,

(22:44):
so I was once again surprised to see you click
the Chargers in the spot. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (22:49):
I love what Shane Stikeen's doing in Indie. Like the
Colts aren't creative, they're extremely well prepared every week, but
they are being traded like a top eight team in
these power ratings right now. And I can't quite get
that when you look at who they've beaten, like they
beat Arizona last week with a backup quarterback, they beat Vegas,
Tennessee Miami. Four of those wins came at home. Those
are broken beat up teams, and not one of them

(23:11):
has a top ten offense or defense by EPA. So
I don't know that this run of results justifies Indy
being rated ahead of the Charges just yet. Meanwhile, the
Charge of Stock is in the gutter injuries on the
offensive line at running back, but they still have Herbert
and the dude showed out last week when he had to.

(23:32):
We got the Dub on the road. Now he's back
at home with a chance to gain some ground in
the playoff race against the current number one seed in
the conference. This is a huge game for them at home,
and now Indy dealing with some defensive injuries as well.
They had already lost their slot corner Kenny Moore before
last week's game. Then Mike Hilton goes down Tarvarius Ward,
who's excellent, he went down with a concussion, and now

(23:54):
with the travel this week is that guy going to
clear protocol in time, so he might not play this week,
and like Jacoby Brissett towards this defense last week. So
I don't I don't know why we should feel great
about Indy's secondary right now going up against Justin Herbert.
So between the injuries to the Colts secondary, I think

(24:15):
they'll Obviously the Chargers have a much better quarterback, probably
still a better coach too. I think I think the
market's giving Indy a bit too much credit for beating
up on bad teams. So that's why I ended up
on the Chargers.

Speaker 1 (24:25):
To put some numbers to your points. Preseason look Ahead
was minus six in favor of the Chargers. Market ratings
have certainly shifted there, and the Indianapolis Colts per DVOA
have played the sixth easiest schedule to date in the NFL.
Those are the split games. Nothing for DP yet, So

(24:48):
we got to get to his segment, the lone Wolves,
all right, DP, I feel like it's a bit at
this point, I should really get the song because you

(25:09):
just keep clicking at every single week, and this one
is no exception. You're laying the one and a half
points with the EA G l Ees Eagles as they
travel two Minnesota to take on JJ McCarthy, question Mark
and the Viking.

Speaker 4 (25:28):
Yeah, big question Mark. I mean, who the heck is
playing quarterback for the Vikings? This is I mean, we're
on the Vibes podcast. So it's good that we can
just go on Vibes and we can figure this out later,
because it's either going to be JJ McCarthy, who hasn't
played in several weeks coming back and I think this
is a tough spot for him to just jump back
in and come back, or Wentz dealing with the shoulder

(25:50):
industry injury, which everything that I've read says it's very,
very painful, even though Wentz has also said like he
wants to come back and play against the Eagles and all.

Speaker 1 (25:59):
That sort of stuff.

Speaker 4 (26:00):
So it's like, so you're gonna get an over motivated
Carson Wentz, who isn't that good to begin with, injured
with the shoulder playing quarterback seems like bad news. Or
JJ McCarthy coming off cold seems like bad news. When
on the other side, I see these guys for the Eagles.
They practiced today from what I could tell, So are

(26:22):
they gonna be back? Which makes them better? I mean,
I already think the Eagles are a cut above the
Vikings in general, so I just think this is a
pretty bad spot. Also, I mean, I guess stealing a
little bit of what Brett said in relations to the Lions,
I mean, how pissed off of the fucking Eagles. I mean,
come on, after what they've been putting up the last
couple of weeks. I mean, Thursday night in primetime, losing

(26:44):
to the Giants like that, I mean, come on. I
know the Vikings are also on extra rest, but you know,
the Thursday game does allow the Eagles that little bit
of extra rest to prepare for this possibly stew a
bit over this loss that they just had. You know,
so I don't know, I really like this team, and
I think the obvious thing to throw back would be,
you know, this is Flores's defense going up against Hurts,

(27:07):
and we're not high on Hurts. And you know, I
know Rich was, you know, Beacon last week with some
of those plays. There are some of those throws that
he was making, but they I mean they were bad, yes,
but I mean, come on, like, I mean, I think
they can they can scheme things up here, They can
get things right. They can move the rock, and you know,
I'm not asking them to cover a really big number here.
It's one and a half, so it's not exactly moving mountains.

Speaker 1 (27:27):
Mo had this low. I had this in the middle.
Ish not in love with the Vikings obviously because of
the ambiguity at the quarterback position. To further assert your
love for the Eagles, they have played the third toughest
schedules so far per Dvoa, and Minnesota has played the
third easiest, and the rest advantage, like you said, for

(27:48):
the Vikings gets dinged a little bit while they had
the full by. The Eagles did have the mini by
off of Thursday Night Football. But it's what you just said,
which just I can't get. Flora is at home against
Jalen Hurts out of my mind. Flores is going to
make Hurts beat him, right, He's going to situate his

(28:13):
defense in a way where he's not going to let
the Eagles rushing attack beat them. The Eagles rushing attack
has been very poor this season, and he's going to
force Jalen Hurts to make throws against him and beat him.
And Jalen Hurts is specifically poor against pressure against Blitz's

(28:33):
very erratic. So I just I have a hard time
seeing the Eagles having offensive success in that spot. But
I just can't get to loving Minnesota because I don't
know who's playing quarterback. And honestly, if I were intrigued
by Minnesota to make a wager or put them on

(28:54):
our card or have any support for them, I don't
even know which quarterback I would want in this spot,
because you've got a Carson Wentz who is injured and
turnover prone, and a JJ McCarthy who I'm still not
sure can make every throw necessary to play quarterback at
this level. So this is a game where I'll be

(29:17):
more so probably data collecting on the vikings and most
likely sitting on the sidelines. Well let's get you back involved,
because you were this is This is a nice dead
cat bounce spot for Washington coming back after a couple
of turnovers against the Bears. Now they get a much

(29:40):
softer landing spot in this Cowboys defense. Indoors, tell us
why you picked Washington.

Speaker 3 (29:47):
I'm not going to tell you why because I'm sitting
this out because this is your fault. You put the
wrong number and I didn't go back and change it
because I didn't feel like it. So I had to
Washington minus as fair, and you put Washington plus on
the thing, so I clicked on Washington. That's my explanation.

(30:10):
So if you want the right pick, you have to
put the right thing in the sheet.

Speaker 1 (30:15):
Totally my fault. Totally, this is accountability. Is one thousand
percent my fault. I'm technically the highest on Dallas at
one and a half. I think it's just rule of
NFC East a little bit here, Cowboys coming off the
buy again injury ambiguity in this spot. Both Terry McLaurin

(30:39):
and CD Lamb practice today in a limited fashion. So
how much of that is them ramping up and then
potentially playing next week or how much of that is
them actually trying to get back to play this week.
We don't know it's Wednesday, but injury news in that
situation could make me change my opinion.

Speaker 3 (30:59):
Rap.

Speaker 1 (31:00):
But if McLaurin is in and CD is out and
this is a dead cat bounced spot for Washington, I
would really like them inside on the fast turf against
this Cowboys defense. If it's the other way around and
it's the Cowboys coming off the by against the Washington team,
that I think is generally overrated. Still, people are still
kind of in love with what this team was last year.

(31:22):
I think I'll be interested in in Dallas in this spot,
so I think there's just a lot of TVD when
it comes to this matchup. All right, Brett, I'm fairly
certain I had the correct numbers in this game, with
the nine Ers two and a half point favorites at
home against the Atlanta Falcons, who got us one of

(31:43):
our three covers last week, and you were laying the
two and a half with another team with a lot
of injuries, and we don't know some practice reports are
in this being on the West Coast, we don't know
about the Niners at this point.

Speaker 2 (31:57):
Yeah, I mean, this is going to depend on what
the injury reports look like through the end of this week,
but the forty nine Ers offense might start looking like
the forty nine Ers offense again. Purty Kittle practice today,
Jennings practice today. Pierce will probably not gonna be back.
But I would prefer to buy this team now before
the offense is already clicking again with the starters intact.

(32:18):
That's kind of where my head is at with this
one plus Atlanta off the big win short week. The
Warner injury sucks. That's obviously huge for San Francisco, but
I still I have the Niners rated higher than Atlanta,
So I think this line's pretty fair and short of three,
I'm just I'm leaning towards San Francisco.

Speaker 1 (32:38):
DP, you are the highest. On the other side with
the two and a half with Bijon, Michael Pennix and
them boys, I.

Speaker 4 (32:48):
Really, I guess I just can't get past these forty
nine ers injuries. I also don't really think mac Jones
is playing well.

Speaker 1 (32:54):
I mean, I don't know.

Speaker 4 (32:55):
I watched this team and I'm just like, I don't
understand how they're even like kind of in games. I mean,
I guess that goes to Shanahan and all the positive
stuff that everyone says about him.

Speaker 1 (33:06):
But yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 4 (33:08):
I feel like, you know, kind of like where I
guess where Brett's head is at, where he wants to
buy shares before they kind.

Speaker 1 (33:16):
Of get going.

Speaker 4 (33:17):
I want to go the other way before they really
fall apart. I mean, I think one of the reasons why,
just going back, you know, the the reason why I
didn't pick the forty nine ers under on the season
is because their schedule was so easy, which I think
has allowed them to kind of get to this point
dealing with all these injuries, all these key injuries that
they've had. Well, if these injuries continue, I mean, I

(33:42):
think at some point this has to like kind of
just fall apart. I feel like it has to, Like,
I don't know how it can't, Like, how can you
survive like this in the NFL. I mean, maybe they can't.
Maybe they're gonna walk on water to the freaking NFC
Championship game. I don't know, but I don't see that happening.
So I think the Falcons are pretty good all around.
I mean I think their quarterback play could be improved, yes,

(34:04):
but I think they have enough there on both sides
of the ball. That coupled with the way that this
forty nine ers roster is just looking again with all
these injuries, I just can't put an X next to
the forty nine ers in any way, shape or form
right now.

Speaker 1 (34:19):
All Right, I've got the last lone Wolf and it
will come up again in the Survivors section because I'm
just I don't know what to do this week with Survivor.
I have so many options that I'm not confident in
any of them, but one of them that I'm interested
in the answers. One of them that I am interested

(34:41):
in is if I find it one time, it's here somewhere?
Is it not here? There it is? Green Bay Packers
travel to Arizona. They're currently six and a half point favorites.

(35:03):
Another injury question as to whether or not Kyler Murray
will be back this week with his foot injury. The
Cardinals played a bunch of games last week having him
practice do some things, smoke screen, but it seemed fairly
obvious and was made pretty much. I think it's so funny.

(35:24):
I think the official news came out right after lineup
lock for CIRCA, so we didn't get the official line
move until after that. Jacoby Brissett was going to go
in and play quarterback, and Jacoby went in and played
just fine. Maybe it had something to do with that
bum Marvin Harrison Junior not being on the field and
taking targets away from actual meaningful football players. But this

(35:48):
feels like and Moz brought this up previously classic rule
of NBA injury. You get a bump in the first one,
get out there, play above expectation, and then come crashing
down to earth the game after. It makes it even
sweeter that it's at home where people saw that performance

(36:10):
and they think that the Cardinals can sustain it. But
I know who Jacoby Brissett is, and he's not that
quarterback who is going blow for blow with a Colts
offense that has been hyper efficient this year. So whether
it's Chakoby Brissett or it's a hobbled Kyler Murray who
kind of like justin Fields, if the dude can't move,

(36:32):
it's kind of pointless that he's in the game playing
quarterback for you. And then this is a Packers team
where all I've heard the past week is what's wrong
with the Packers, what's wrong with Michaeh Parsons. This team
is fake elite, This team isn't in the Super Bowl conversation.
So I don't think very many people will have any

(36:53):
interest in selecting Green Bay in circus sports million. And
when it comes a survivor, I'm seeing a projected two
percent ownership for a team that is favored by six
and a half in Pro football, So very interested in
the Packers With both of those, well, you put an

(37:15):
X next to the Cardinals if you have any conviction
or anything to say, tell us now or forever hold
your piece.

Speaker 3 (37:24):
No, I don't have any to say. I mean, how
can you even make a number for this game and
you don't know who the quarterback is? Yeah, I think
Brissette played good. It's hard to say. I definitely thought
about that principle though when I was looking at this game.

Speaker 1 (37:40):
But it's interesting.

Speaker 3 (37:42):
All I've been seeing this week is that everyone has
the Packers as the number one team. So I don't
know if I agree with you that nobody's going to
be interested in the Packers. I think quite a few
people might be if if they're looking at these market
ratings and whatnot. The in predict numbers do have the
Packers number one as well, So apparently.

Speaker 1 (38:04):
How could anybody be above Kansas City? I mean, what
are we doing? How many Chiefs are number two? But
many times we have to see this movie.

Speaker 3 (38:12):
The Chiefs are number two. But yeah, I think I
would take the Chiefs over the Packers for sure. But uh, yeah,
the Packers are good obviously, And Arizona it's been I'll
just say it's it's been incredibly disappointing what they've put
on tape this year. I cannot believe this coaching staff
that was so consistently able to get overachievement out of

(38:36):
his poor rosters finally got Dell a full deck of
cards here where they had NFL players across the board,
and they and they just they haven't been able to
do anything close to what they did before. So I'm
concerned that something Clayton Adams was causing a lot of
the magic behind this this offense, because all of a

(39:00):
sudden they look lost.

Speaker 2 (39:02):
That's sad. And I know their schedule has been extremely
weak to this point. They've been in every single game
until the end.

Speaker 3 (39:08):
They didn't deserve to be in some of these games
though the Seahawks kicked their ass.

Speaker 2 (39:14):
Yeah that's true, but they're always there.

Speaker 1 (39:18):
And just to further the Brisette point, he put together
a sixty first percentile EPA game against the Colts point
one five EPA and over the last couple of years
prior to this season, he was more at point zero four,
so just slightly above the average when it comes to EPA.

(39:43):
So I don't think what we saw last week is
very repeatable. I still believe in this Packers team, and
you know, it's funny It's funny we've been hearing different things.
I heard somebody this week say that they think the
Cowboys might have won the trade because Michael Parsons is
like fiftieth pressure rate or something right now. I mean,
if he if he has a degenerative back problem and

(40:06):
he's not like super elite, then the questions are going
to be made about this transaction. But I'm going to
give it time. I've seen Michael Parsons play well enough
in this league that I'm not going to let a
couple of weeks of play on a brand new team
affect the way that I think about this guy. So
those are the early lone Wolf Leans. Let's get to

(40:30):
our very preliminary Week seven card.

Speaker 2 (40:39):
Nine eight.

Speaker 1 (40:43):
Five three two one fire. I don't even know what
the records were last week, so we're gonna go alphabetical order.
Brett Colson, if here on Wednesday you had to put
a game on the card, it would.

Speaker 2 (41:03):
Be I'd probably flip a coin between the Crowns and
the Chargers. At this point, well, so we'll just say Chargers.

Speaker 1 (41:16):
Most reactions says it all. DP. If you were to
put a game on the card here on Wednesday, what
would it be Eagles, car there will be tinkering, Oh,
you're up next? A game we have not discussed a
game that I love, a game that is right now

(41:37):
a consensus pick because Brett didn't put an X next
to either team. So three of three, it's one hundred
percent of those who answered, who do you got?

Speaker 3 (41:48):
I got the Giant. I don't know where this is
at in real life, so I'm curious what sort of
number is gonna end up coming out in the contest.
I'm assuming you got these numbers from somewhere and you
didn't just pull these out of your ass. Yeah, If
the Giants are getting seven and a half, it's just
a number that I just don't understand.

Speaker 1 (42:04):
I mean, I'm.

Speaker 3 (42:05):
Looking at these in predict ratings earlier and they're telling
me that the Broncos are five points better than the Giants,
which it's probably pretty close to where I'm at.

Speaker 1 (42:21):
But then I just.

Speaker 3 (42:23):
Why are we giving the Broncos full credit for home
field in a spot where they're coming back from overseas
and the Giants have extra rest. So I'm not understanding
why the situation favors them at all. It seems like
quite the opposite to me, So, yeah, I don't think
they should be getting much credit at all beyond whatever

(42:43):
the difference in the team strength is here. So do
I think the Giants are a particularly good team. No,
but I do kind of like what they're doing on
offense with Jackson Dart and Cam Skataboo. I mean, it's
relatively low risk anyway, like they're gonna have a hard

(43:05):
time just giving away hemorrhaging points with silly mistakes when
they run the ball so much, and Jackson Dart it
seems like he'd rather scramble than force the ball into
tough spots. So I think that if they just let
their defense put some pressure on bon Nicks, which I'm

(43:29):
assuming they will because this is a very good pass rush.
We all think Bonnicks is pretty bad when he's not
in a structured situation, so I think the Giants should
be able to keep this close.

Speaker 1 (43:43):
Man.

Speaker 3 (43:43):
I thought that line was insane last week when I
saw the Giants were seven and a half point dogs,
and this is how unplugged I was, because I was
so pissed about the Rams. I thought they were on
the road, it was like, oh, that makes sense. And
then when I saw they were at home. I was
flabbergasted by that line, so I had to come out

(44:07):
of retirement and take some Giants money line, and.

Speaker 2 (44:11):
That was a good decision. That was the first game
last week. What do you mean, camarderie talk?

Speaker 3 (44:16):
That was the only game I bet retirement for the
first game of the next slag is ready to go.

Speaker 1 (44:24):
Yeah, this is just classic betting spot total forty and
a half getting a seven and a half point dog
against an offense that has been extremely limited Broncos twenty
ninth in offensive success rate throwing the ball. They've played
the third easiest schedule in football so far, so what

(44:48):
success they have had has been against edy teams like
the New York Jets with negative ten net passing yards.
So this seems like a brutal spot. Brutal travels bought,
brutal rest spot. And while it pains me to buy
this Giants team off of that win and that hype,

(45:10):
the line moved a half point, so it's not like
there's any value that was added to this that is
going to make it tougher to click a team like
the Giants. I am up next, and my pick is
technically sniped by the collective. I'll tell you the collective

(45:34):
pick right now, the collective lean, I should call it.
It is the dead cat bounce of all dead cat bounces.
Something Callahan was finally let go. House has been clean.
He took his dad with him. All the Calayans. I'm
sure they had Callahan cousins and ball boys and stuff
that were hanging around to All the Calahans have been

(45:56):
rounded up and sent out of Nashville. And now, well,
you've got a Tennessee Titans team that can just breathe,
let their shoulders drop a little bit, play free. And
now they're seven and a half point dogs at home
against an extremely overrated Patriots team. A Patriots team that

(46:19):
all these metrics are telling me is bang average, is
getting a lot out of their quarterback, who admittedly is
playing fantastic. Drake May making amazing plays, really good downfield,
extending plays, getting away from pressure. He is playing awesome,
But he is currently a seven and a half point

(46:41):
road favorite in Pro football in a spot where the
other team is likely to give its best effort of
the season, and all of the computers that are creating
this number and running regressions to spit out this number
are accounting for it. Being the worst team in the
league by country mile. So this is another classic spot.

(47:04):
It's a must click. Camboard has made all the throws
that you would like so far this season. All it's
going to take is just a bad coaching effort, not
even I'm not even asking for average. Just a bad
coaching effort, but not the worst coaching effort in the league.
Let these guys go out play free ball out and

(47:27):
cover a massive number at home in seven and a half. So,
who is the lowest of the people that clicked Nobody?
Everybody had Titans in their top five DP. I guess
you were the quote unquote lowest on Tennessee.

Speaker 4 (47:45):
Yeah, I mean this is just a it's a slam
dunk pick. I don't necessarily know if it's like slam
dunk confidence, but like the combination of the spot. You
got the Bilo cell high aspect, you got the anti narrative.
Everyone's talking about Rabel's rich earned to Tennessee, and this
is like, I mean, it's like it's so it's so perfect.
Not only is it Vrabels return to Tennessee. They just

(48:08):
fired the guy who replaced your ass, and like you
don't think he's gonna be marching in there, chest out
push ups on the field beforehand, slamming pads. I mean
he might fucking suit up for all I know. Like
at this rate, just put the pads on fifty. Let's
go get in there. I mean, but how could you
have to You are not a legitimate You cannot say

(48:33):
you bet sports if you if you click the Patriots,
you can't. You need to fucking retire, You need to
close all your fucking accounts, and you need to walk
your ass home from the casino. Okay, you cannot do it.
This is the spot you click.

Speaker 1 (48:47):
There's also this has to be mentioned every single round
robin teaser parlay Survivor entry. I legitimately took New England

(49:09):
completely out of my Survivor process because one of ownership
and two guys something, Jeff Sunday won an NFL game
on the dead Cat Bounce, like a guy came off
the street, put a headset on and just pretended to

(49:31):
be head coach for a couple of weeks and won
his first game. Like this is a real thing that happens.
So I am have zero interest in clicking the Patriots
in any Survivor scenarios this week and then I'll just
give some love to I mentioned Bucks earlier. I'm tied

(49:52):
between Bucks and the I'm very interested in the Seahawks
minus three and a half at home against the Texans.
The Texans can't block anybody. The Texans have showed a
complete inability to create positive plays on offense. So how

(50:14):
are they to go up to Seattle outdoors in what
looks like crappy weather and put together an offensive game
plan against a McDonald defense which is very stout. I'm
I don't know. The one thing that people are pointing
to when they come to this game is obviously the

(50:36):
rest for Houston coming off the buy. But other than
the rest, I'm not sure. I see very many advantages
in favor of Houston, especially if I believe in passing
offense over defense, and I believe what Klint Kubiak is
doing with Sam Donald looks extremely repeatable. So I'm not

(50:58):
too worried about a strong defense is coming in because
I just think offense is better than defense. So if
I think one team is going to be able to
generate first downs, yards and points and the other team cannot,
I have no worries whatsoever. Laying three and a half
with the Sea Chickens go Seattle. Brett looks disgusted over there.

Speaker 2 (51:20):
I'm like, I'm watching this game during the podcast and like,
I mean they just the Blue Jays just tied it,
which is good, but oh, it's trussing out over here.

Speaker 1 (51:28):
The Canada's team, the Buffalo Bills, love the connection with
the Toronto Blue Jays. So the card extremely tentative card
right now. Titans, Hawks, Chargers, question Mark, Eagles, and Giants.
There will be tinkering getting the discord bit dot ly

(51:51):
slash discord moose and get at us at Griden Gamble
on Twitter Survivor. I am absolutely in the blender this week.
Pool Genius projects the Patriots to be the most owned
team at thirty percent. Following them are the Kansas City

(52:12):
Chiefs at twenty five percent and the Chicago Bears at
fourteen percent. Right after them are the Steelers at thirteen percent,
and then you've got the Broncos at nine percent. I've
already taken the Broncos. I've been going back and forth
this week. I'll tell you my holiday plans, which really

(52:34):
dictates how to attack this week, because of course, Kansas
City plays on both the Thanksgiving and Christmas slates and
having taken the Broncos, they are one of the six
teams that play on Christmas. So I really, really, really,
with Airy Fiver in my being, I want to take
Kansas City because I think people are going to save

(52:56):
them for the holiday slates and you're going to get
them close to twenty percent ownership in a spot where
you're getting the Raiders off a win, your double digit
favorites at home, you're getting Rashi Rice back. Who knows
if Jacoby Myers is even going to suit up. With
the trade rumors today, they could have like a phantom benching,

(53:18):
or it could even be traded before that game. What
is the motivation there when you know that Jacoby Myers
is going to be gone? It just seems like a
spot where the Chiefs are just going to mash this
Raiders team, win by margin, get out of there without
a sweat. The problem is is if I take Kansas City,
then I only have four available teams on Christmas, and

(53:43):
weird things can happen. Right There's injuries and things that
you don't plan for that can just come up and
bite you in the butt. And the unfortunate thing about
all of that is that of the four teams I
would have available to me, one of them is projected
to be the most chalk that week in forty percent,

(54:04):
with the Washington Commanders playing host to the Dallas Cowboys.
So I will just find myself in a situation where
I'm either forced to take the ultra Chalk or full
forced to take the Ultra Devil, and there will be
no exit ramps to take, like Kansas City at thirty
percent that week playing host to the Broncos. So that

(54:24):
is my biggest problem right now, Brett, you've unmuted, so
I will that's my brain dump. Give me your thoughts.

Speaker 2 (54:32):
No, I love it. And what's what's beautiful about these
small slates on the holidays is like it's it's oftentimes
plus ev to embrace the weird and go contrariant, like
the math says, it's correct. So that's why I typically
don't care about using these elite teams early when you
can get them a lower on I mean, how often
are you gonna get I mean, Kansas City might be

(54:53):
sub twenty percent this week. How often are you gonna
get a twelve thirteen plus point favorite at that ownership?
Probably not o often? So I totally understand the thought
process behind taking Casey this.

Speaker 1 (55:06):
Week, and if you look at I mean, we're getting
way ahead of ourselves. But the projected win odds for
the Cowboys on that Christmas late at Washington right now
are thirty five percent. So if we get to a
point where we get there and there's that large amount
of people on Washington, when in reality the Cowboys have

(55:30):
a thirty five I would say maybe even closer to
forty percent chance of winning that game if Ceedee Lamb
is back healthy and Dak Prescott continues to play at
the level he's currently playing at, like that is a
very viable leverage shot. This isn't like that Raiders game
we talked about many years ago where it was plus
seven and a half and you were completely rolling the dice,

(55:51):
and by the way, the Raiders did end up winning
that football game. It will be more of a scenario
where it is a more realistic shot to win. I'll
talk Thanksgiving real quick too. Right now. My plan is
to take Detroit because Detroit is going to be very
low owned and they're going to be a favorite that week.
So I think that's a very nice pivot off of

(56:13):
the other games. So but I'm honestly just all over
the place because if I don't take Kansas City, then
I don't I don't feel good about anything. I don't
feel good about the Bears at home against the Saints.
I don't feel good about Pittsburgh on the road against
the Bengals on Thursday. Cleveland. It's just that Cleveland is sanity.
So that's where I end up thinking about taking the

(56:36):
Packers because I'm not taking the Packers at Detroit on Thanksgiving.
So that's just like never happening, because the only scenario
with which I would do that is if there's Jared
Goff injury and then all of a sudden they're the chalk,
and I don't want to be on the chalk. So
I'm not concerned about holidays when it comes to the Packers,
and the only spot where they've got above seventy sent

(57:00):
win odds remaining this season our Week fourteen home to
the Bears and in two weeks home to the Panthers,
where in two weeks home to the Panthers they're going
to have thirty percent ownership as opposed to the two
percent that they're projected this week. So I'm all over
the place. Anybody say, Donnie, do you have any thoughts?

Speaker 4 (57:22):
Yeah, you better just hope I clicked the right fucking team.

Speaker 1 (57:26):
Oh no, do you want to tell that story?

Speaker 4 (57:29):
I mean, I submitted the wrong entry for somebody as
a proxy, like what and I felt like absolute death
for thirty six hours.

Speaker 1 (57:37):
But Mos said he did he did him a favor.

Speaker 4 (57:42):
I mean, it was looking really, it was looking really
great there for a little while.

Speaker 1 (57:46):
Mo They wanted to do one Packers, one Raiders, donned
did two Raiders, so they got there.

Speaker 3 (57:55):
I can tell you that having watched the Raiders this week,
there's no way.

Speaker 1 (58:00):
They played to a draw. They played to a draw
with the Titans NFL team. They played to a draw
with the Titans, but the Titans are just so inept
at football under Calahan that it didn't matter.

Speaker 3 (58:11):
But I hate to use the word lock, but I
do not see any way in the world the Chiefs
could ever lose this game. That is how bad the
Raiders are.

Speaker 1 (58:19):
We got that. I never ever say that.

Speaker 4 (58:21):
I mean, I didn't want to jinx myself during the game,
but I felt that same way about the Raiders against
the Titans, Like the Titans could not move the ball
five yards. I was like, this is the dumbest game
I've ever seen. The only thing the Raiders need to
do is triple team Jeffrey Simmons and they will win
this game by a million points. That was the only
thing they needed to figure out.

Speaker 3 (58:42):
I have seen the Chiefs lose to some bad Raiders teams,
but they were not anywhere near this bad. The level
of play that the Raiders are putting on the field
is disgusting right now.

Speaker 2 (58:54):
They're probably not gonna have Bowers again this week too, right, So.

Speaker 1 (58:57):
How would it make you guys feel options We're only
Washington projected to be Mega chalk Dallas at Washington and
then this Detroit Minnesota NFC Northey.

Speaker 4 (59:12):
Buddy, if we make it to Christmas with one team less?

Speaker 1 (59:14):
Okay, okay, this is what I was saying in the
discord is that there are services now, and we also
know a lot of gamblers that I feel like, if
we were to get to Christmas, we would be able
to sell off five percent of our equity or something
and de risk ourselves a little bit and explain to them, look,

(59:35):
forty percent of this contest is going to be on Washington.
We're clicking the Dallas Cowboys because we have an equity
chance to really turn this entry into something valuable. Are
you willing to buy into that risk? I am fairly
certain we know enough people that we would be able
to sell enough equity for us to feel comfortable in

(59:57):
making that decision. So okay, I'm all right. We're We're
taking the Kansas City Chiefs. Barring something insane, give us
the double digit favorite that's gonna have super low ownership.
Every other double digit favorite this year is gonna be
like thirty forty percent. We're gonna get a half bright

(01:00:18):
price discount on the greatest quarterback alive, getting Rashie Rice back.
It's gonna be amazing when this comes back to bite us.
So now Las Vegas writers, all right, Brett, your thoughts
like what happened?

Speaker 2 (01:00:38):
Well, No, I'm just looking at this the I'm just
looking at the schedule for the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (01:00:43):
Not only.

Speaker 2 (01:00:45):
Are we getting them as a double digit favorite, I
don't know that they're gonna be a double digit favorite
again this year. They might not be, So like this
is the spot for that. It has to be the
spot for the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (01:00:55):
Their only chance is if the Houston thing if by
week fourteen, the Houston thing just doesn't click right, if
like people are finally realizing that this Houston team is
just horrific, that might be the chance. And if the
Chiefs turn into a wagon, right, if Rice comes back
and this this turns into the wagon again, then then
maybe that's the spot. But yeah, there's no there's no

(01:01:17):
other game this season until week sixteen that the Chiefs
have a greater than seventy percent chance to win, according
to pool Genius. So let's go, Patrick, Andy Rashi in
the bunch, Go Chiefs. All these guys on Twitter at
Britt Colson, cublel s O n At Dottie Underscore Peters

(01:01:40):
and at Monora and U double w r a H.
I'm at Richie Ryan follow at gridon Gamble for our
final card and I'll say it again. Get into Discord
bit do ly slash discord moose. Best of luck in
your betting ventures. See you guys next week. Pace to