2025 Week 8: Banana Split

The Collective have an insane eight split contests, and try to do their best to formulate a fifth-straight winning card in Circa Sports Million.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Hello, and welcome back. So great are jambl the only
podcast that puts its money where its mouth is. I'm
your host, rich Ron, and I'm joined by the insire collective,
the Disciple, Brett Colson, Donnie D. P. Peters, and the
Resident moves himself mo Nowara. If you're watching this on YouTube,

(00:32):
please like the video and subscribe to the channel. Listeners,
rate and review on your Podcatter of Choice five stars only,
like and I was going to put Joe Alt, but
somehow Joe Alt was only four stars. Shocking five stars only,
like Derwin James of the Los Angeles Go jajas Go,

(00:55):
who currently lead fourteen ZAP on Thursday Night Football. Four
straight winning weeks for the collective, in which we are
fifteen and five in circa sports million, and no member
of the collective individually is better than fourteen and six.
That's mo. So it's mostly just a collective effort. Most

(01:19):
shaking his head about being multiple massively above five hundred,
just yelling at somebody in the background.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
Felix won't shut up.

Speaker 3 (01:29):
Yeah, I see his dog in the corner. That does
the matter.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
Felix is hyped. He's like Dad is crushing it. Dad
is leading the collective ahead. Unfortunately, what's sick about the quarter?
We do get an additional week. This is one of
the five week quarters in circa, so if we hit
the old five and oh five and oh parlay, we
might be drawing live for the quarter. But I mean, regardless,

(01:58):
run a roll, let's keep it roll. This is going
to be a very interesting week for the collective because
we have I think a record eight split contests, and
some of them have lots of contention, including this first
one Cowboys at Broncos. The Broncos are three point favorites

(02:21):
in the contest. I was seeing the hook at multiple
books earlier on, but I believe this is going to
be one of those where it might flash a flat three.
It might be an expensive three, a cheap three and
a half wherever you're seeing it, or expensive three and
a half if you're taking the points, obviously getting a
little bit of relief if you're laying the three and
a half. But the contest is a flat three, and

(02:44):
we're going to start off with Mo the guy who
is fourteen and six during the stretch, who has dem
Boys in his top.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
Last. Yeah, I just this one. I was very surprised
to see, though I wasn't surprised to see that I
was high on the Cowboys, I guess, but I was
still a little bit. I mean, are the Broncos for

(03:11):
sure better than the Cowboys.

Speaker 1 (03:13):
I'm not sure. I honestly am not.

Speaker 2 (03:16):
I'm not sure either. I mean, the Broncos kind of
looked like shit last week. They've kind of looked like
shit all year. To be honest, I don't think they're
that good of a team. The Cowboys are extremely well
coached on both sides of the ball. I think something
eberfluse Man. I mean, these guys stink on paper. They

(03:37):
can't get you. They shouldn't be able to get any stops,
and they got some stops. They've been getting a few stops.
So I think with their passing offense, I mean, I
think they might might be the better team here. I
cap them like they're the better team. So I don't
think Denver should be laying this sort of a number

(03:58):
here against a better passing offense for sure. And yeah,
I just it's too much for me. I know that
ODB is going to be all in on Denver at
a small number, so good luck to him and all
the Bonicks believers, But I don't think he's good. And
I love what this Dallas coaching staff is doing. I

(04:19):
think they're getting the most out of this entire team.

Speaker 1 (04:23):
Yeah, I think this game is basically a coin flip,
and if you run this game a thousand times, it's
gonna be like five hundred to five hundred. So in
that scenario, it's a no brainer for me to take
the three points. With Dallas. The game is going to
be fascinating because on one side of the ball, it's
going to be strength on strength with this Dallas offense,

(04:44):
which is awesome and this Denver defense, which is awesome.
And on the other side of the ball, it's going
to be weakness on weakness. Because the numbers bear out
what you're seeing, Mo, This Denver offense is twenty ninth
in pass success rate Bonix. It looks like a pumpkin
out there. But we know this Cowboys defense can absolutely

(05:05):
be got and they have been gotten. Even when Marwoda
had to go in last week. Granted it was a
lot of garbage time, he seemed to move the ball
just fine against them. I see all red over their
defensive efficiency EPA and DVOA as well. So, yeah, I
think this game is a pure coin flip. And in

(05:26):
that scenario, I'm just taking the points step you were
laying it with Bonix in the Broncos.

Speaker 4 (05:32):
Yeah, I should preface this by saying that there will
be lots of tinkering on my card this week. Quite
a bit tied up today that said this is one
of the games. I think it's just a spot for me.
I mean, I mean, Moe, you said that, you know,
you think that Bonix is bad. That is literally all

(05:54):
that I have heard for like three weeks is that
Bonux is not good. The only person saying he is
good is ODB who the guy has one decent quarter
and he's out there chirping us in our fucking mentions
on social media. Literally everyone else is like, this guy
is not good. So and then I see on the
other side, everyone's like Dak for MVP, look at this team,
blah blah blah, this and that and the other thing.

(06:16):
So I'm like, you know, what the hell with it?
The Broncos are gonna score forty on this stupid defense.
Bonix is gonna look amazing. This is the spot when
everyone's gonna be clicking the Cowboys, because all I've heard
is people say how bad Bonis and this offense is,
and how great Dallas is and Dallas coming off with
they score last week forty four, Like, this seems like

(06:37):
a great spot for me.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
Bonis did a tremendous Dallas.

Speaker 1 (06:43):
Bonis did a truly you.

Speaker 4 (06:44):
Can't trust those numbers.

Speaker 1 (06:45):
Come on, Boni did a tremendous, tremendous job on that
pick six. An incredible job by Bonix on that play. Yeah,
I think Bonix is like, look at Oroande Gadston just
I'm I mean, are they stitching his gold jacket already?
This guy's gonna have one hundred yards in a suddy

(07:06):
at halftime? It looks like Antonio Gates is back in
these Navy blues that the Chargers are wearing tonight. Yeah,
I Nicks feels like the ultimate front runner, which is
why I can see the Broncos having offensive success in
this game against a bad Cowboys defense. But I think
the Cowboys, the way they're being coached and the way
Dak Proscott is playing, can score against anyone. And I'm

(07:28):
always going to take passing offense over stout defense. So yeah,
give me the Cowboys In this spot, we move down
to Houston, where Donnie is saying that he's hearing everybody
talk about bo Nick's being bad and Dak being MVP.
I have not heard a single human that gets in
front of microphones and talks about sports betting this week

(07:51):
and say anything other than you have to bet the Texans.
Gotta bet the Texans, gotta take the Texans. Texans here,
they looked awful. God to take Houston, and DP, you're
with him, You've got Houston in your top five.

Speaker 4 (08:05):
Yeah. And I've also heard all of my friends in
my group chat saying like we're betting the forty nine ers,
literally all of them, because the Texans look God awful,
especially after what happened last week against Seattle. I mean
that was an absolute disaster. So yeah, I mean bet
the Texans. Don't watch the game, and hopefully you just

(08:28):
collect your money or you collect in this case the
contest point and we move on with our lives.

Speaker 1 (08:34):
Brett will get you involved here because you are the
highest on yo boy, Kyle Shanahan.

Speaker 3 (08:41):
Yeah, but I don't really know what to do with
this one yet. Like I want to love the Niners,
but the injuries in the secondary. In addition to the
Warner and the Bosa injuries from earlier in the year
leave me very wary of this defensive unit. I do
have the Niners rated higher, however, so that's why I
did click them. I think they're right outside my top
five Texans. They're just a disaster. Man. It all starts

(09:02):
with the coaching too, basically. I mean, look at what
we saw on Monday night. So I'm just gonna wait
and see what the Niners practice report looks like before
making a decision here. If several of those guys are
looking like they're not going to play, I'll probably have
to adjust my confidence in this team this week, because

(09:24):
right now I do have it as wrong team favorite.
I think the Niners are quite a bit better than
the Texans overall.

Speaker 1 (09:30):
I'm pretty sure ref just got CTE. He's getting checked
out on the sideline. They make him go in the
blue metal. No, they're just letting him get back on
the sideline. Look at good Dell get him back in
the game. Oh man, he got rocked. Oh my god,
this thing. You guys are gonna have to check Twitter
in the like a minute. He took it like a
champ though. Yeah, Okay, so the Texans offense is god

(09:55):
awful and now you're likely to remove Nico Collins from
the equation who is speaking of CTE in Kankasha protocol?
And Christian Kirk has not practiced this week with a
hamstring injury. So I get the people lining up to
take the team that looked the worst last week and
did everything they could to blow that game up in
the Pacific Northwest. But what remains of this football team

(10:19):
when it's going to be something Jalen Lane Jayalen Nowell
at WR one for the Texans, bucks at.

Speaker 3 (10:27):
It accounts injury was probably worth mentioning.

Speaker 1 (10:29):
Yeah, I mean he's the whole offense, Like he's the
only guy in that the way CJ is playing, like
Nico is the only guy worth anything in that offense.
Bucks at Saints and NFC South tilt, in which we
keep it with Brett because he has the highest opinion

(10:50):
on Baker Mayfield and his list of misfit toys at
wide receiver as road favorites minus three and a half
in New Orleans.

Speaker 3 (10:59):
Yeah, I had a five and a half on this
game last week. Both teams lost, both failed to cover,
yet somehow the line has dropped two points according to
what CIRCA gave us this four and a half if
you look around, But that doesn't make any sense to
me unless you're overweighting some of the schedule quirks here,
Like the Bucks are coming off a Monday night road game.

(11:19):
Now they're on the road for a second straight week. Yeah,
that the matters a little bit, I guess, but that's
already priced in here too, So let's not pretend that
this is some crazy fatigue trap for Tampa, like this
is a better team catching a market discount. In my eyes,
the matchup here is brutal for New Orleans. I think
one reason I've liked the Saints over the past month

(11:42):
or so is the continuity in this offensive line that
is now shattered with Eric McCoy being ruled out. Who
is blocking Vida Veda in Vida ve in this game
for the Saints? And last week we finally saw play well, yeah,
that's worth watching as well, but we finally saw the
old Spencer Rattler last week. He was brutal. Now facing

(12:04):
a Todd Bowles defense that blitz is at a high rate,
Tapa's defense is going to make him uncomfortable all day.
Long and we know what happens to rally in those spots.
And then on the other side, this is by far
the easiest defense Baker will have seen all year. He's
been putting up MVP numbers against a really tough schedule.

(12:24):
So to me, this is a by low spot on
a team that is really good and has strong edges
in the trenches with a baller quarterback against a quarterback
that's really just walking into a ship storm this week
without his key offensive linement. That's a huge loss for
the Saints.

Speaker 1 (12:42):
To put some numbers to what you're saying, the Bucks
have had the third toughest schedule so far per DVOA,
and on that blitz number, the Bucks blitz at the
fourth highest rate in football, which is Todd Bowles AF.
I'm the lowest. I'm the highest on the Saints, but
I have them extremely low. And I just can't get
over the fact that the Bucks said three point eight

(13:03):
yards for play on Monday night, and this just might
be who they are. Without any receiver with a semblance
of a pulse running routes for Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield
can only do so much in this offense. And I
know Egbuka did play on Monday night. I know he missed.

(13:26):
I'm saying veteran rest, even though he's a rookie. He
missed Wednesday and then returned on Thursday in a limited fashion,
which makes sense. You don't want to over extend the hamstring.
But how healthy is he really when they're kind of
break glass in case of emergency to get him out
there because Godwin remains out and Mike Evans once again
finds himself on ir SO. Not betting the Saints, not

(13:50):
interested in betting the Saints. But from a contest perspective,
it's hard for me to put an X next to
Tampa Bay. We keep it with Brett's got the highest
opinions in this game segment, and we go to Titans
at Colts. The Colts are laying two full touchdowns minus
fourteen in the contest, and Brett is happy to lay

(14:12):
it with his guy Shane Steichen.

Speaker 2 (14:15):
Yeah, I'm back.

Speaker 3 (14:16):
I'm back. After last week, this team looks awesome. But
on the Titans side, though, we've talked several times this
year about teams that don't look like themselves because of injuries,
the Ravens, the forty nine ers, what if the Titans
don't look like themselves anymore with these defensive injuries piling up,
in addition to guys like Calvin Ridley on the offensive
side of the ball, Like, how bad is this team

(14:38):
gonna be if Simmons isn't on the field. Lagerius sneed
already rolled out. He's been terrible this year, But that's
a glue guy in the locker room that's now gone.
And now Simmons isn't practicing. If he's out, this Tennessee
defense collapses. You add in arden Key, he's really their
only edge rusher. He's gonna miss his third game, looks

(15:00):
like and that's it. That's their entire pass rush, Like
those those three guys, is that's their defense? Like the
only guys to get any pressure on quarterbacks are those
three guys. So I don't know how Tennessee gets a
stop in this game. And like Indy, they've shown they
don't play down to bad teams like the Bills and

(15:22):
some of the other teams in this league, Like look
at what they've done against weaker opponents, wins by twenty
five points, twenty one, thirty four. They just bear teams
that can't keep up with them even last week against
the Chargers, what was supposed to be I mean, I
thought it would be a letdown spot, but they didn't.
They didn't blink. They controlled the game. They moved the
ball efficiently. So the handicap here for me is pretty simple.

(15:44):
I don't know how the Titans generate pressure. I don't
know how they get stops, and the Colts offense just
looks too good. I think if they score in the
low and then the low thirties here, I think they
cover pretty easily because I don't know how Tennessee past
seventeen points either.

Speaker 1 (16:02):
Yeah, Tennessee's only calling card this year was the strength
of that defensive line behind Jeffrey Simmons fourth and presson
rate tenth in a rush defense success rate. He tried
to rally the troops. He tried to There was reports
that I believe it was Callahan's last week, that practice
was pretty awful. But Simmons would stop practice himself, make

(16:26):
guys rerun plays, make guys rerun drills. He was doing
literally his damnedest to try to rally that team. And
now they in the deadest cat of bounce spots. They
get their doors blown off and now he's hurt, and
this is where things just yeah, they just might absolutely,
I mean they've already spiraled. They just might get completely

(16:48):
out of control, which leads to a spread being this
large mode. You put an X next to Tennessee, you
got them in the middle of your picks.

Speaker 2 (16:58):
Pretty close to this line, but just the spot, honestly,
more than anything. I know, it's a division game, obviously,
so those tend to be a little more locked in
in general. But when you're a double digit favorite and
the opponent is Tennessee, which is the worst team in

(17:19):
the NFL by quite a bit, and then you have
multiple playoff caliber opponents coming up and coming off a
huge win, I could just see them being a little
bit sleepy here and just winning this game by ten
or whatever. I actually thought the Titans looked a little
more alive for parts of the game last week, So

(17:39):
you know, getting rid of the worst coach in the
NFL has to be an upgrade. I don't care how
bad the next guy is, even though I don't remember
anything positive about something McCoy's tenure as a head coach,
in fact, quite the opposite. But I still think he'll

(17:59):
be better than Callahan. And then this is just a
spot where I don't see Indy playing their best.

Speaker 1 (18:05):
Might be something Brosmer time Whence reaching for the elbow
after having a pass bat at, he tried to swat
it like Mutombo with his injured arm and things not
looking good. Yeah, I am actually the other person that
put an X next to Tennessee and it's it's for

(18:25):
what you're saying though, Like at this many points, all
you need is the Colts in Pro football. All you
need is the Colts to just take their foot off
the gas a little bit and do you open yourself
up to a back tour opportunity. Brown's at Patriots dep
has the Browns in his top five. He was on
here last week complaining about everyone's hyping up Drake May.

(18:47):
Everyone thinks drenths May is the greatest, and once again
he's fading his guy.

Speaker 4 (18:54):
Yeah, listen, I'm gonna tell you guys right now that
I'm going to have whoever the Patriots are playing at
the top of my card until they freaking lose or
don't cover. I heard this week Chris Simms say that
Mike Vrabel was the perfect blend of Bill Parcels and
Bill Belichick. And I almost fucking drove my car into

(19:15):
multiple mailboxes down the street. Okay, I'm done with it.
I can't handle it anymore. This has gone way too
f and far. Let's just slow down. Drake May's having
a moment. Okay, he's having a moment. Yes, the team
is doing much better than I think a lot of
people anticipated. Has anyone looked at their schedule because it
is freaking god awful. Okay, So I'm just simply going

(19:37):
to blindly pick the other team every single time and
just Martin Gallat all the way and maybe maybe they don't,
maybe they just cover the whole rest of the way.
They get the number one seed in the AFC, and
I'm just gonna look like an idiot.

Speaker 2 (19:49):
But come on, guys, come wait, so you see who
they're playing this week.

Speaker 1 (19:52):
I was gonna say. The problem with that is that,
like everyone was speaking about in the preseason, they their
schedule is just a complete joke. You're right, they've played
the thirty second toughest schedule to date in the NFL.
I'm over on FTN right now, I'm looking up future

(20:14):
schedule in the National Football League and oh yeah, who's
thirty second for future schedule the New England Patriots. I mean,
it's just they're just kind of waltz to ten or
eleven wins because they're playing an absolute joke of a schedule,
and this week they have the ultimate home road splits

(20:35):
team that for whatever reason, when teams go to Cleveland,
they just get absolutely suffocated by And there wasn't even
horrific they you didn't even get the Lake win the
Lake wins last week. It was just kind of like
gross weather. But teams just get swallowed in Cleveland. That
defense just gets after it. But now they have to

(20:56):
travel on the road against the second voodoo guy in
the league, which is Mike Rabel. He got some voodoo
last week when a quarterback just inexplicably threw the ball
backwards and it bounced right into a defender's gullet as
they walked into the end zone. And as much as
you want to kill your guy Drake May, he's kind

(21:18):
of doing it. He's kind of playing at a very
high level with very little help from his receiver group.
And if the Patriots have any semblance of offensive success,
I'm not even asking them to be the team that's
number one in pass offense. EPA. I'm just asking for
them to have some semblance. What's the stat we keep

(21:41):
talking about before last week, before they played the joke Dolphins.
Can the Browns get this? What is it? Seventeen points?
They hadn't got to seventy points once this season. This
is Dylan Gabriel on the road in New England against
a coach with a pulse. It is a nightmare scenario
for the Cleveland.

Speaker 4 (22:00):
I don't care. I'm over it. I'm just over it.
I cannot listen to it anymore. I just can't do it.

Speaker 1 (22:08):
Your money, save your money, because the Patriots are going
to go into the playoffs and they're gonna go against
a really good team, and they're gonna be something dumb
like plus four and a half, plus five, And people
are gonna talk themselves into Drake May going on the
road and winning a home player winning a playoff game.

Speaker 4 (22:27):
What do you they might be? They might be home
in the first round with the way that this schedule is.
What are you talking about?

Speaker 1 (22:32):
I mean non zero stop it, but that means if
they even string together. Can you imagine this team going
into Arrowhead and not catching double digit points? Mahome's goat
squishing them like an absolute bug. Give it to me
one time, Give me Chiefs minus seven and a half

(22:54):
one time against this clown team. I'm begging you. Yeah,
So I've got a new loan in my top five.
Let's keep this segment rolling forever. I'll probably put an
ad break in on audio. Those were already twenty thirty
minutes in. We're putting it in right here, and we're

(23:15):
back time for the greatest football team, the greatest fall team.
Miami travels to Atlanta to take on the Falcons, who
are seven and a half point favorites in the contest,
and we bring Brett back in because he is laying

(23:35):
it with Bijon and them. Boys.

Speaker 3 (23:39):
Yeah, I'm fading Miami again. I don't think this is
priced correctly, and not just because of how bad Miami
is either, but because I think there is some positive
regression coming for this Falcons offense, which is crazy to
say because they just wipe the floor with the Bills.
But this is a team that has moved the ball
extremely well. They're seventh in yards per play, but they
have not been able to convert in high leverage. They're
twenty eighth in reds own touchdown rate, thirtieth in points

(24:02):
per drive. I'm not a Penix guy, and he's been
horrendous in those situations over the first two years. Maybe
some of this is predictive, but I just don't see
this level of inefficiency as being sustainable, especially when you
have playmakers in beijon it, especially Drake London around the
red zone who just catch radius and ball skills make
him one of the best red zone targets in the league.

(24:23):
And what better opponent to get right in these situations
than against the Dolphins, who can't stop anybody. This defense
is completely cooked. It looks like they've just quit in
the past month. They're bot of five in success rate
EPA allowed explosive plays. This is just a perfect by
the dip on a Falcons offense that really is I

(24:45):
think I think they do for a breakout. They're moving
the ball like a top ten team, but they're not
scoring like one, and that's just not gonna last. So
I think Miami's defense is the fix for this Falcons
offense this week, and I think this could just be
a role show.

Speaker 1 (25:00):
Yeah, it's night and day traveling across the country to
play against a Bobby Salad defense, even if it's bref
to talent, then returning home to the comfy confines playing
in the Dome against whatever something Weaver is rolling out
for Miami. In this spot, mo, you the Disciple and
the Moose continue to be on opposite side. Moe's got

(25:21):
Miami bubbling his top five.

Speaker 2 (25:23):
Yeah. Kind of similar to the Colts game, where I
thought Miami could score enough to uh, you know, keep
it reasonable. And now the line is seven and a
half against a worst team. I mean, I don't know.
I just it's just a little bit too high for me.
And yeah, I know the Falcons have done pretty well,

(25:46):
but this is also just bet the team that looked
the worst last week, which was undoubtedly in Miami. So
uh yeah, I do recognize that there's the problem that
the Falconlkins could cover this killing the clock. Just Tyler
Algier up fourteen handing off to Tyler Algier. He might

(26:10):
just be getting eight yards per carry. But if the
Dolphins are in this, then you know their offense could
do it. I think against a Falcons defense that has
been better than I expected, for sure, but this Dolphins
team can still throw the ball. I mean, they were
in a horrific situation last week in bad weather on

(26:31):
the road against a great defense, maybe a great defense,
at least a very good defense. And now they're facing
a worse defense in a dome. So I think they
can get back to scoring some points here.

Speaker 1 (26:44):
Let's go to the City of Brotherly Love, where I'm
doing this on the fly. I didn't load this to
my mixer. I have it pulled up. I don't know
if this is going to work. Let's see you two
is asking me to answer a questionnaire. I don't want
to ask answer your questionnaire. Is this working?

Speaker 2 (27:01):
No?

Speaker 1 (27:02):
Not working? All right? The Eagles are seven and a
half point favorites against the New York Football Giants, and
speaking of Martin Galing, Donnie is not getting off the
Philly hype train.

Speaker 4 (27:18):
Did we get a point last week?

Speaker 1 (27:21):
We did get one point.

Speaker 4 (27:22):
I'm not gonna get off. I'm not gonna get off.
Come on. The Eagles have circled this game for what
a week and a half, two weeks, two and a
half weeks now after they lost that stupid game on
Thursday night to this team. Come on, let's go.

Speaker 1 (27:36):
This will also be coming up in the Survivor segment
because I'm hearing a lot of bare cases about the
Eagles this week. I'm seeing projected five percent ownership in
circa Survivor. I get it. With the Colts minus fourteen,
probably one of the last spots to take them, but

(27:57):
triple circled after getting embarrassed in primetime a couple of
weeks ago. Yeah, I definitely am interested in Philly here. Mo,
you are very low, but you're higher than Brett on
the Giants, so you have to defend them.

Speaker 2 (28:12):
Yeah, I thought this one was pretty fair. It's just
really hard to I mean, remember, if you guys remember
I think I did say I thought seven and a
half when I saw Philly minus seven and a half.
I thought that they were at home in that other game.
So then when I realized they were not at home,
I immediately bet the Giants. So now I'm like, Okay,
this is what the line should be. They're at home

(28:34):
and they're minus seven and a half, so I just
think it's right. But yeah, I mean, I definitely recognize
that this could be a spot where Philly comes to
play big time after they got embarrassed before. At the
same time, the Giants are playing relatively solid football, and
I just don't. I can't get too crazy about Philly
here when the Giants are just doing basically what they

(28:55):
need to do every week to make these games competitive.
And you know, still just question this Eagles offense. I
still watch them every week and just wonder why they
don't know that AJ Brown and DeVante Smith are on
the team, and I don't know if AJ Brown is
going to be on the team this week. There's a
lot of injuries on both teams in this game that

(29:16):
are quite important players. So I don't know how you
can be very confident in this game unless you're pretty
sure about some of these players. I mean, Brian Burns,
this is just you know, a starting cornerback. I think
Paulson Adebo maybe was out or hadn't practiced. I mean,
there's just important players on both sides that I just

(29:37):
think it's hard to get a good read on this one.

Speaker 1 (29:40):
Adebo Holland.

Speaker 2 (29:41):
But I hate the way this Philly offense is being coordinated.
So there's that.

Speaker 1 (29:45):
If there's ever a week though, I mean we said
this on Thursday night, but again, short week, first time
OC on a short week, this is more regular cadence
a home game. If there's ever a week for this
Philly run game to get anything going. It's against the
team that's thirty second in rush defense EPA, thirty first

(30:06):
against rush defense DVA, and could be without Brian Burns
helping things up front. And then if you just look
at Jackson Dart, like, if you make Jackson Dart play quarterback,
this guy is twenty eighth in completion percentage over expected
play shell. Maintain your rush lanes, don't over pursue and

(30:28):
let him scramble and make him sit back there and
play quarterback. He's look to the guys he's throwing to.
I don't. I just can't imagine a world where Vic Fangio,
who got his shit pushed in a couple weeks ago
by Jackson Dart, isn't taking like every moment of every
day this week to make a perfect plan for the

(30:50):
Eagles to come out and kick the crap out of
the Giants this week. So I'm spoiling survivor. But that's
my stump for Philadelphia last split contest Bills at Panthers.
The Bills make me wanna Moe is laying the seven

(31:13):
with Buffalo down in the Queen City.

Speaker 2 (31:16):
Yeah, I'm not impressed. With the Bills at all this year.
To be honest, I don't think they've played very well.
But that being said, this is a nice spot for them.
You got a Panthers team that the market is starting
to believe in a little bit here rightfully, So I
think in a way like they're playing relatively solid football.
I don't think they're playing great, but I think they're

(31:39):
getting something close to the most out of their talent.
This is an awful roster, so the fact that they
are getting what they are I think is pretty impressive.
But now they're facing a big boy football team that's
going to come in, punch them in the mouth, run
the ball against a defense that was historically awful against
the run last year. Just think this is just going

(32:01):
to be Bills off a by. It's just they should.
They should. I the Panthers I like them kind of
last week, but dude, they just that was a hideous game.
They the Jets lost that game. I don't even know
if the Panthers won it. So now you have a
real football team coming in with real Super Bowl aspirations

(32:22):
that wants to get right. I think the Bills should
be like nine ten point favorites here. Seven seems way
too low for me. I think the Bills are going
to destroy the Panthers, but I get that, like maybe
just handing off Erico Dabtill keeps them in the game
because the Bills don't look like they're interested in getting
stops this year. So you know what, that surprised me. No,

(32:42):
but I do think the Bills are going to score
a lot of points here.

Speaker 1 (32:45):
The problem with that is that when I was sitting
in section two of four last week for that incredible
Panthers Jets experience, that the Panthers chose to cram fourteen
times with Cuba Hubbard instead of continuing to hand to
Rico Downell. So this might just be rules.

Speaker 3 (33:04):
They're the same. Come on, are we talking about Rico
Dowdell is being that much better than too?

Speaker 2 (33:09):
Rico Dowdell's agent is awful? How is he? How could
all he got is a backup? Uh? You know that
she's better than four Chiefs running backs and and nobody
wanted to give him a contract. This is a joke.
This agent stinks. Firing agent.

Speaker 1 (33:26):
I know isn't good at football. I know that. So
if something Rico has a pulse, then he has to
be better than to bother. Nobody's got a strong opinion
on this side. So I'll bring in you, Brett, because
you are the Buffalo native. Put a cap on this
game and let's get out of the split games.

Speaker 3 (33:45):
Well, what's interesting here is that the Bills actually do
have some reinforcements coming on on the defensive side. Michael
Hoyt and Larry Ogunjobi. Both guys were suspended before the season.
They are back this week off the buy and we'll
be getting meaningful snaps to plug that interior and try
to stop a run game, which the Bills have not
been able to do for years. Might see Maxwell Harriston.

(34:07):
I actually haven't checked the latest on him. He's practicing,
I think, but that's big if they can get another cornerback.
In that said, I don't feel good about backing Buffalo
as a big favorite when they have not been able
to get stops and still don't have a reliable target
in the past game. It is definitely mattering now that
Kean Coleman cannot separate and get open. This is a

(34:28):
problem for Josh Allen. So yeah, I can't back the
Bills is a big favorite until I see some of
these things cleaned.

Speaker 2 (34:34):
Up, right?

Speaker 4 (34:36):
Have you ever felt good about backing the bills?

Speaker 3 (34:38):
I'm not sure I've backs this year, this year covering
the existence of the podcast. Okay, that's true, that's true.

Speaker 1 (34:48):
Keep filibust ring. I want to pull up Brett's.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
Remember that one time Buffalo is minus five against the Raiders.
I think we all backed Buffalo. Then they won by
forty two years ago.

Speaker 1 (35:02):
I'm playing it at least.

Speaker 2 (35:04):
I think we at least got there once. I want
to know what Rich's plan is for Indy if he
doesn't use them in Survivor. Already do because they are
way too good you use Okay, that's okay, I already
used them, and yeah, of course, yeah, I mean again,
we're spoiling it. But because thirty forty percent of the

(35:24):
contest has already used them, they're literally capped at like
thirty percent ownership, right, Like, that's that's what I think
they ran the numbers Jason did on the Pool Genius
Show and he's estimating eighty percent of those that have
the cults will play them this week, and it's like
capped at like thirty six percent.

Speaker 1 (35:44):
Eighty percent, which which that still seems high, right, like,
because if you have people with multiple entries, like, they're
not going to put all of them on Indie, They're
going to diversify their portfolio. So yeah, if you're if
you're in a contest that's large, and there's likely a
large set of that contest that has already used Indianapolis,
don't overthink it. Just click the Colts and hope that

(36:07):
you are thinking about next week.

Speaker 3 (36:11):
I thought I was so sneaky in one of my pools.
I took indian week two. It's like, yes, I got
rid of this terrible team, and now they're just the
best team in football.

Speaker 1 (36:19):
Well dude, and well, I mean we're we keep giving ahead.
But the Chiefs was just so annoying last week. First
the ownership comes out and everybody clicks them, and then
every other team won. So it was like brutal should
have clicked anybody else, all right. I looked at Brett's
lifetime Bills record. This is updated as of two weeks ago.

(36:45):
He they are his seventh worst team. He is, did
I sort this correct? It looks like it's correct. Forty
nine in Bill's games. Not bad.

Speaker 3 (36:58):
That's actually way higher than would have thought because I
took the opposite side every year. They I think they
went like fourteen and three against the spread, and I
was like, this team, isn't this good? What are we like? No,
I'm taking the other side, and yeah, they just covered
every week the team. I'm surprised it's that high.

Speaker 1 (37:16):
The team that Brett is the best with is the
Las Vegas Raiders.

Speaker 4 (37:23):
But I want to know how many how many times
has he backed the Bills? How many times that I
would have the ratio on backing the Bills versus backing
the Bill's opponent.

Speaker 3 (37:32):
Yeah, that's that would be interesting.

Speaker 1 (37:34):
I don't have that. I don't That would just take
some time. But an off season projects. All right, we
philibustered enough, Let's get to the lone wolf singular. At

(37:56):
three and six, he's got the worst lone wolf record
on the season, and he has the only lone wolf
this week as he is laying the six and a
half with the Baltimore Ravens and the return of Lamar Jackson.
We think question mark back at practice here on Thursday
trending in that direction, and as he throws his hands up,

(38:20):
he has to levy a defense for his lone wolf selection.

Speaker 3 (38:24):
Well, yeah, because if Lamar plays, I feel like this
should be closer to seven and a half, maybe eight,
but even beyond the number though, I just feel like
this is a perfect Bilo cell High setup for these teams.
Chicago is sitting on a very misleading four game win
streak and it's built on turnover. Look not good football.

(38:45):
This is not a good football team. They're forcing three
takeaways per game. That's by far the highest rate in
the NFL. Nobody else is at like two, So that's
insane and completely unsustainable, especially when you factor in that
it's not driven by good defense. Like the Bears are
dead last in yards per play allowed, they're twenty sixth
in points per game allowed. They won all these games

(39:08):
despite a negative point differential and negative yards per play margin. Meanwhile,
on the other side, Baltimore quietly the healthiest and most
rested they've been since what week two. They only have
one player that's listed as a DNP this week, and
that's DeAndre Hopkins with an illness. Derrick Henry's legs should

(39:31):
be fresh, Lamar's back obviously, the offensive line is looking healthier,
and I just see this turning into a game where
the offense resets its rhythm and confidence at home. This
looks like a season reset game for Baltimore, and that's
exactly when Baltimore is at its best, when people start
to doubt them, not paying attention to what's going on

(39:52):
under the hood and in the locker room, but only
focusing on the record, which is terrible. But like, this
is the spot where they have to get and we've
said this for a couple weeks. I feel like, but
they have to get it right now. The Lamar is
back under center.

Speaker 1 (40:04):
The problem is Baltimore likely has a bottom five defense
in the league, and I'm not sure Roquan's with returning
matters because I'm not sure that guy is good at
football anymore. Like they're not good at anything on defense,

(40:28):
thirty first in pressure rate, thirty first against the pass AEPA,
thirty first against the run. The only player on their
defense who I look at and I'm like, that's a
plus player is Kyle Hamilton. And other than that, I
just see mismatches across the board with which I think

(40:50):
Ben Johnson can just kind of cook here. And the
Ravens offense is just going to be a massive question mark.
We don't know what the hell scenario is with Lamar Jackson,
he's coming off of a hamstring injury. Running the ball
is paramount for Lamar Jackson. So if he is just

(41:11):
a pure pocket passer, that's just naturally going to take
away some of his biggest impact plays, which is when
he can tuck and run. So I have major questions
about this Baltimore offense. And even if they come back
and they start to click, six and a half points
is a large enough backdoor number where I think the

(41:33):
Bears can take advantage of a bad Ravens defense and
score coming from behind to cover a number. So yeah,
I just we don't know where this is going to
land because we don't know what the market's reaction is
going to be to the Friday news dump that Lamar

(41:53):
Jackson is officially starting, or whenever it comes out that
he's officially going to be the starter for this team.
Is it gonna get to seven? That would surprise me,
Like I would assume that most people are operating under
the guys that Lamar is the starting quarterback this week.
So would a sudden rush of money come in to
move this to a seven? I guess maybe. But even

(42:18):
if that's the case, then it might create a somewhat
of a leverage spot where everyone sees a healthy Lamar.
It's a full seven, and in the contest it's only
six and a half. So I am very interested in
the Bears at this number.

Speaker 2 (42:34):
My experience is that, you know, just from NBA, usually
if a guy is most likely out, the number will
get close to where it's gonna end up, but it
will still move when they're officially announced out, as long
as it's like Lebron or something and not like, you know,
if he's good but not like super impactful player.

Speaker 3 (42:57):
If he's announced out, where does this go, because then
we're talking about.

Speaker 1 (43:04):
It probably goes to picture.

Speaker 3 (43:06):
Yeah, that's that's massive.

Speaker 1 (43:10):
Yeah, I think there's a discussion to be had here.
I'm assuming tomorrow we'll get some more concrete news. Although again,
if i'm harball like, people are making fun of Aaron
Glenn this week because Aaron Glenn won't announce who the
quarterback is and they're leaking out that they're splitting reps.
Although it sounds like the Jets beat thinks that that's
a lie and that Justin Field is just saying that

(43:32):
and in fact Tyrod is taking the majority of the
snaps like these, Why wouldn't you play games right? Why
wouldn't you have some games some shit? Why would you
just give the opponent all the information we're talking about
in the discord? Our guy m Steima, I'll say it.
I'll say it correctly for our guy as as even

(43:52):
at the high school level, he just knows how annoying
it is when, even if it's only a two percent
chance and it's unlikely, you have to prepare for it.
And whoever's he said quality control is the person that
would take on the shoulder, who would shoulder that responsibility
of making sure that the game plan was correct for
both quarterbacks, And it just adds more time to preparing

(44:15):
and it's just super annoying. So why why wouldn't you
just lie as much as you can and force the
other team to prepare for something that might not actually
be coming. All right, singular lone wolf out of the way,
Let's get two the week eight.

Speaker 2 (44:31):
Card nine eight.

Speaker 1 (44:41):
Five three two one fire. Moe was four and one
last week, so he will lead us off with the
first consensus pick that will be on the card.

Speaker 2 (44:59):
Let me I tell you I flipped it at the
last second over my other one, which I already know
what the other one is because of spoilers that have
occurred earlier in this podcast. But uh yeah, I've got
this one is a weird one because it moved so much.
But I just don't understand why it would move as
much as it did. And it's it's the Commies. Uh,

(45:23):
there's no way Jayden Daniels is worth seven points. I mean,
I've just I've seen Marcus Mariota operate this offense well
enough in his career there, which is not like the
smallest sample in the world. Like it's always small, obviously
because it's a backup quarterback, but like like he's played

(45:44):
you know, four ish games or something right at this point,
maybe five, a few last year, a few this year,
and he hasn't embarrassed himself yet. I mean last week
he embarrassed himself for a play, but that was, you know, horrific.
But it's not like he's just out there doing that
every week like Carson Wentz and Tua and these guys

(46:04):
who are just bombing their teams out of games. Mariota's
been relatively serviceable, I think, and I just don't I
don't understand why this line moved seven points. This is
a crazy move to me. I know Jaden Daniels is
very good, but I just can't get anywhere near this number.
I think this should be a single digit number, So

(46:25):
twelve and a half seems insane to me. This is
gonna be primetime illume too. Leagues got this one circled.
There's no way they're going to let the Chiefs run
away with this by thirty, are they.

Speaker 1 (46:50):
I don't understand this move whatsoever, especially because the look
aheadline had to have taken into account that Jayden Daniels
was playing through an injury like was the five and
the five and a half ass five and a half.
If the market is available and people can place real
money wagers on this, it has to include the fact
that Jade and Daniels is not playing at full one

(47:13):
hundred percent.

Speaker 3 (47:14):
So if you're telling it is an extra week though too.
I mean, I don't know. Maybe they were baking and
then he would be more healthy than he was last week.

Speaker 1 (47:22):
But even so, it can't be one hundred percent right.
It has to be some ding. There has to be
some reduction of performance projected for Jade and Daniels. I mean,
he's playing pro football. He's going out. They're just assuming
he's going to survive multiple car crashes and look better
the following week, and then it moves seven points. It's

(47:42):
absolutely outrageous. And this is a Kansas City team who
everybody is coming around and realizing is the best team
in football. Duck guys, Hello, welcome to pro football. And
they just trounced a team that they absolutely despise to
the poor who they were. So they were so disrespectful

(48:07):
that they started kneeling with three minutes remaining in the
game and punted the ball. And now they've got a
cross conference opponent in who they don't really care about playing.
They just want to get the dub. So there could
definitely be some sleepy Chiefs here. Get the win, get
out of Arrowhead, get to week nine. Brett is Bread.

(48:30):
You seem like you're little worried over there.

Speaker 3 (48:33):
Well, yeah, because the fears that the sleepy Chiefs are
just dead and buried, and this team is just out
to take souls. They're motivated. They have to win football
games just to they're a third place in their division
right now.

Speaker 2 (48:45):
So it's like, but I.

Speaker 3 (48:48):
Don't know, man, this is not the same Chiefs teams
that we've seen over the past few years, they're just
as good, but they have to play at one hundred
percent because they had no choice but to win these games.
I just I don't know, man, this team is just
rolling bad teams. And I'm not sure the Commanders with

(49:09):
Mariota is even an average football team at this point.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
Yeah, that's that's fair. And it's a bad quarterback and
arrowhead at night, so it's gonna be loud. But I
still just see this look aheadline that had to mean something.
It had to mean something, and there's no way this
a seven point move. You can't justify it. I just
don't see how you could. I mean, and then you
look at the Chiefs last week. I bet the team
fade the team that looked the best. I mean, you

(49:33):
can't play a football game any better than the Chiefs
did last week pretty much. I mean, they basically were
pitching a no hitter and then they just stopped playing.
That's how that But we knew that that's how bad
the Raiders were. I said that going into that game.
This is a disgusting Raiders team that is putting disgusting
football on tape. And you just it's not the type

(49:54):
of bad team with a puncher's chance to keep things.
You know that Washington can still score twenty points. Like,
if they score twenty points, it's going to be pretty
hard for the Chiefs to cover. It's definitely not impossible,
but it's gonna be hard.

Speaker 1 (50:08):
Also, looking at the injury reports, the first of which
came out today, because this is the Monday night football game,
we get a full participation from Scary Terry, we get
a full participation from Deebo Samuel. So if Cliff can
just scheme it up, get enough points, get us to fourteen,

(50:31):
twenty points, get the cover.

Speaker 2 (50:35):
I think we're probably gonna need twenty.

Speaker 1 (50:39):
They might just be back. Is Matt Clark going to
start giving them their roses? They if they he's been
hating for so long, If they just keep.

Speaker 2 (50:46):
Beating teams, the only one who's not everyone's just unanimous.
This is the best team now, which I said it
probably was before the season, so I feel vindicated there
after that looked really dumb for a few weeks. But yeah,
this offense is cooking again. So it's really tough to
say anything bad about the Chiefs right now. They look tremendous.

Speaker 1 (51:08):
All right, I'm up next. That was three and two
last week. I had three games basically tied for first,
and I moved one up to the highest because that's
what we got to do. That is the life we lead.
And I clicked the Chicago Bears plus six and as
I have them tied with the Washington Commanders, and I

(51:30):
also have them tied with another consensus pick that did
not make the card, which we can briefly discuss here
if you guys want, and that is the Packers minus
three going to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. So
we've already discussed Bears, Ravens. If we want to just
touch upon Packers Steelers real quick. The Steelers they just

(51:53):
got absolutely trounced defensively by the Bengals, and Joe Blaco
came out after the game and he said what we've
been saying for ten years on this pod, and what
Belichick was doing for many years before that. He said,
we know the Steelers are going to come out into
the base defense. I just need a little bit of

(52:14):
time and I just need to get the ball to
t against and Jamar Chase, you think that Lafleur doesn't
know this that Lafleur knows that they're going to come
out in base, knows what the Steelers want to do defensively,
and isn't going to put together a game plan with
an offense that already is phenomenal and is going to
have tons of success against a Steelers team that continues

(52:35):
to only get twenty five percent pressure rate. If the
Steelers can't generate pressure, it's impossible for them to sit
in their stupid little zones and beat these teams. Okay,
So they've played the fourth EASIA schedule to date, twenty
eighth and DVA. Now they're playing a great offense with
a great play crawl caller and weapons across the board.
So I think the Packers are going to go in

(52:57):
and absolutely paste the Steelers defense, and it's going to
be up to Aaron Rodgers to keep pace against Micah Parsons, who,
I guess read a bunch of clippings last week, read
about the Cowboys perhaps winning that trade and went out
and got three sacks. So I love Green Bay in
the spot, and I guess maybe this impassioned speech is
making me want to rearrange some things and put them

(53:19):
to the top because of all the ambiguity that is
in that Bears game. So I'm audible on the fly.
Alert Alert Alert, We're going cream Bay Tana. You're laughing,
love it.

Speaker 4 (53:35):
Yeah, I'm just laughing. I mean, I don't really believe
in the Steelers team all that much. I mean, I
know they've been I think better than we expected, but yeah,
I mean I don't know. I can't really trust them.

Speaker 1 (53:46):
Brett, You're up the next.

Speaker 4 (53:47):
We We're gonna want to beat the bag out of
Aaron Rodgers.

Speaker 1 (53:49):
Dude. That's the other thing. It's everyone's talking about. Everyone's
talking about Rogers or revenge first game against the Packers.
There's gotta be so many guys. Lafleur included that absolutely
disdaining Aaron Rodgers.

Speaker 4 (54:03):
Everything that you heard from Rogers' time there is he
was an absolute pill like, So you don't think these
guys are amped up to go into his new home
stadium now and just pace the guy.

Speaker 1 (54:14):
Come on, all right, Brett, you are up next two
and three last week with a better season overall so
far than DP, and you've got our first split contest.

Speaker 3 (54:25):
Yeah, I've got a placeholder in this one with the
Bucks because I do feel like with this line value
that's being created in the market right now, people are
gonna be heavy on the Bucks against the Saints. So
I do love the Bucks. However, if we think this
is gonna be one of one of the more popular spots,
I'm happy to pivot to like Colts or didn't.

Speaker 2 (54:47):
You say that this is the least favorite line for
people to click on though?

Speaker 1 (54:52):
That yeah, that's a great point.

Speaker 3 (54:53):
Oh it's actually it's actually not. People like to click
three and a half for some reason, although that more
at home though I haven't often look at the road numbers,
but three and a half actually is pretty popular.

Speaker 1 (55:07):
I'm also curious too about the Saints. I feel like
people have been warmer on the Saints, especially sharper folks
than normal, which are probably in this contest.

Speaker 3 (55:16):
So and then the after last week though I don't know, Yeah.

Speaker 1 (55:19):
This is true, but are people really gonna lay it
with the box after three point eight yards for play
in prime time on the road throwing to something? Ted Johnson,
I'm not too sure. DP give us your pick.

Speaker 4 (55:34):
Well, I'm going with the Texans right now. I mean
I'm kind of similar to what you said, Rich, where
I like all my top three Texans, Browns, Broncos. I
know you hate the Browns. I think you were talking
about Patriots, so so yeah, maybe I'll tinker between now
and Locke, but right now, just gonna play this spot

(55:56):
with the Texans.

Speaker 1 (55:58):
For the love of God. Don't make me sweat dealing
Gabriel on the road, please be.

Speaker 5 (56:04):
All right, collective, The Collective chooses.

Speaker 1 (56:26):
Jets plus six and a half traveling to Cincinnati to
take on the Bengals. I am the only member of
the Collective that did not have this in their top five,
because I do think that this is very much in
flux based upon the availability of one Ahmad Sauce Gardener.

(56:51):
If Sauce does not go, I am very, very worried
about the Jets this game, because while the Jets crumble
and the Jets are awful, my guy has given up
ten receptions the entire season, playing at an incredibly elite level,

(57:14):
and the last time these two teams met, Jamar Chase
had twenty nine yards on ten targets. So I think
his presence in this contest is very critical to the
success of the Jets, and if he's not out there,
I think he's worth I honestly think he might be
worth the hook to seven if he's not available in

(57:35):
this game, and I don't know if the market is
going to reflect that, so if he goes, yeah, I
love this number. I think Tarad has played very bad,
but he can complete forward passes, and anybody right now
is having success and completing forward passes against Cincinnati even

(57:55):
without Garrett Wilson, I think Tanner Enstrand can scheme up
enough for them to move the ball a little bit.
Last week was I mean, these past couple weeks have
just been historically bad offensive outputs for the Jets, and
everybody sees that, so everybody wants to line up and
fade them. Brett, you were the highest. I'm Gangrey.

Speaker 4 (58:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (58:14):
I mean, look, I know the Jets are bad. I
had them on my car last week. That was a spot.
I probably got that one wrong. But here we are
again with the Jets facing another bottom feeder, but this
time they're getting six and a half points like the
Bengals are being priced like a fringe playoff team. After
one Thursday night game against the Steelers team that was

(58:35):
bloated by the market to begin with, and one week
where Joe Flacco looked competent, and now suddenly the entire
market just flips its ratings on Cincinnati. I don't get it.
The look I had on this game was two and
a half, so off of one decent Flacco performance and
some murky fields Tyrod stuff, we've seen a big move

(58:59):
through key number and this is the kind of setup
you want to bet against the team being sold at
its peak, against the team at its absolute floor. And yeah,
like you said, Tyron has been bad this season, but
this matchup actually fits him pretty well. The Bengals defense
is paper thin. They're thirty first and EPA per dropback.
Nearly every QB they faces had their best season against

(59:21):
the Bengals, so why can't Tyler or Taylor have the same.
He doesn't have to have a golf type game or
a Jordan Love type game. He just needs to do
enough to cover a big number. So I like the
Jets a lot here, and yet sauce does matter, but
this is still a defense that can get pressure stop

(59:43):
the run. Bengals haven't won a game by more than
four points all season, so I just can't fathom them
being six and a half points favorites here.

Speaker 1 (59:53):
Yeah, I mean everyone thinks than they are. The Jets
are joke oh and seven Woody Johnson trashing the quarterback
at the owner's meetings, and yet you have a better
net yards for play than the Ccinnati Bengals on the season.
So yeah, I get it. My fan hood is probably

(01:00:13):
clouding my judgments and leading to my fear here. But yeah,
anybody else anything on the Jets before we moved to Survivor.

Speaker 2 (01:00:24):
I guess what would be the next play if you
wanted to, like, say you were to you know, saut
were to be out and you were to move it
or whatever.

Speaker 1 (01:00:34):
So next play the collective has as the Commanders, who
we already are on. Then it's the Texans, who DP
is already putting on, and then it's the Packers, who
I plan to put on. So in a week where
we didn't have much agreements, there's only three consensus picks. Yeah,
this would have to get to seven in order for

(01:00:55):
us to tinker enough for it to be a real discussion.
And then even then, and I think we would all
agree that it might provide a leverage opportunity that is
too great to pass up when we don't believe in
the Bengals defense whatsoever. And all the Jets have to
do is put together somewhat of a competent offensive effort

(01:01:16):
in order to have any chance to cover in this game.

Speaker 3 (01:01:20):
So this this Flacco thing. Remember last year when Flacco
was a seven and a half point favorite against the
Giants and the Colts got smoked by Drew Locke. This
this has similar vibes for me. I think the Jets.
I think the Jets might just get their first win
of the season here. Wow, And I I was thinking
about put this, putting in this in the top of
my car. So I'm very happy that we are all

(01:01:42):
in agreement with this one.

Speaker 1 (01:01:44):
Blowing our chances on something. Mendoza and a sleepy October game?

Speaker 2 (01:01:51):
Is he?

Speaker 3 (01:01:52):
Is he the first pick I'm starting to buy.

Speaker 2 (01:01:55):
I don't know, but history tells me you never want
to have uh important player named Mendoza on your.

Speaker 1 (01:02:01):
Team, all right, Survivor, So I teased it many times.
My lean this week is the Philadelphia Eagles. In circus, Survivor,
I already picked the Colts. Last week, I picked the Chiefs.
So the highest win odds right now that pool genius

(01:02:21):
is giving me are the Atlanta Falcons, the Baltimore Ravens,
the Buffalo Bills, and the Philadelphia Eagles. Bills I want
to keep in my back pocket. They have so many
valuable spots moving forward. They're just a team that I
want to keep, So I don't want to play them

(01:02:43):
in a week where I think there are two good
options for me in Atlanta and Philadelphia. I'm just a
tad bit concerned about, like the smallest bit concerned about Miami.
I'm more concerned about Miami getting in on a fast
track and McDaniel scheming something out for them to look
good than I am with the Giants having back to

(01:03:05):
back good performances against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Falcons
do have some good spots for the rest of the
season Week eleven playing host to the Panthers and then
Week eighteam playing host to the Saints. Those are both
viable opportunities to take them Philadelphia. However, the next time

(01:03:25):
they're going to have a really good spot is going
to be Week fifteen against the Raiders, and they are
going to be like forty percent fifty percent in the
contest because I think what's going to happen is I
think we're going to get the Thanksgiving and I think
people are going to be queasy about taking them against Chicago,

(01:03:45):
and I think that the Chiefs are going to be
an absolute wagon by that point, and I think people
are going to be talking themselves into clicking the Chiefs
at Dallas more than taking the Philadelphia Eagles and then
just keeping the Eagles for four week fifteen so and
then Baltimore.

Speaker 3 (01:04:04):
If you take gohead, if you take the Eagles this week,
then who are you looking at for the Christmas slate?
Where's that thinks? Thanks Thanksgiving?

Speaker 2 (01:04:17):
Thanks Giving?

Speaker 3 (01:04:18):
Thanksgiving?

Speaker 1 (01:04:19):
I've pretty much been locked into the fact that I'm
taking the Lions on Thanksgiving. I think the Lions are
going to be favorites and they're going to be like
five percent owned because people are going to click either.

Speaker 2 (01:04:31):
Well you can't. Can you be five percent on on
thanksgi what's the record low for a favorite?

Speaker 4 (01:04:36):
Right now?

Speaker 1 (01:04:36):
They're projected to be as a go to pick a
percentage over on Yeah, they're projected to be five five
percent ownership on Thanksgiving, forty one percent Baltimore, thirty nine
percent Philadelphia. So if you give me.

Speaker 3 (01:04:48):
A favorite push on Lions, good is why would you
use a team like the Lions when they're a slight
favorite when you could use them really like as a
free space later in the year.

Speaker 1 (01:05:00):
As well well, because the alternative is going to forty
percent of the field.

Speaker 3 (01:05:06):
That's the it's not it's it's going, it's it's going
with alto.

Speaker 1 (01:05:11):
Like I'm not clicking the Bengals. I'm not clicking the Bengals. Okay,
And I guess you could talk me into taking Chicago.

Speaker 3 (01:05:20):
I think Chicago is Chicago's where I was looking at.

Speaker 1 (01:05:23):
But also, you're not getting enough leverage. I don't think
if they're only thirty nine percent owned. On the other side,
like if it was like an eighty percent scenario, well
what we would just have to do the math, right,
If someone can sit down and show me the math,
then of course I'll.

Speaker 2 (01:05:39):
I feel like you need at least like sixty before
the dog starts to become like really high value. But
I'm just throwing a number out there.

Speaker 3 (01:05:45):
I don't know that's true.

Speaker 1 (01:05:48):
I would just have to see the math.

Speaker 3 (01:05:49):
The thing with that that The other thing with that
is there are only a select number of teams that
are being taken that week, and nobody's clicking Chicago except
for you. Oh yeah, I don't know. We have to
ruin the numbers.

Speaker 2 (01:06:03):
Someone took the Titans a few weeks ago, so there's
there's people that are taking Chicago.

Speaker 3 (01:06:12):
Those are people with like ten entries. Yeah, if people
have a lot of entries left, I guess they're going
to click Chicago. But I don't see that happening.

Speaker 1 (01:06:20):
Yeah, Detroit has obviously some great spots. They've got Home
Giants and they've got Home Steelers on their schedule, which
are both fantastic spots for this Lions team. I'm definitely
keeping if I do. If I take Philadelphia, which unless
can one of you guys sell me on Atlanta? Can

(01:06:40):
anybody stand on the table and tell me to take
Atlanta over?

Speaker 3 (01:06:45):
I can't tell you to take Atlanta over Philly. I
love Atlanta. I think they're gonna win by like thirty,
so I mean that's my case. I think Miami's just cooked.
But for this specific like, I can see the reasoning
behind Philly because like you said, there are really aren't
that many great spots for Philly left and five percent
probably around five percent, and their.

Speaker 1 (01:07:05):
Project week they're projected five percent and Atlanta's projected twenty
six percent.

Speaker 3 (01:07:10):
Yeah, so they're right around the same in terms of
why odds so correct. I like something too.

Speaker 1 (01:07:16):
Yeah, I think if you take into account or the
other alternative is New England at nine percent ownership. But
I'm very much interested in taking them in Week eleven,
a week where I think they're project They're projected to
be the highest owned right now at twenty seven percent,
but Atlanta and Pittsburgh have very easy matchups as well,

(01:07:41):
and I think the distribution of ownership that week is
going to be a lot more flat than Pool Genius
is projecting now. And I think New England shit is
going to be minus eleven against the Jets, So I
want to keep them in my back pocket for four
week eleven. But that's another team that I could be

(01:08:02):
talked into taking against Dylan Gabriel on the road because
they're projected to be at nine percent ownership.

Speaker 2 (01:08:09):
Well, did Rich use the Cowboys yet?

Speaker 1 (01:08:13):
You're talking about for Thanksgiving? I have not used the
Cowboys against well against on the Chiefs against the Goat.

Speaker 2 (01:08:22):
How bad can it be?

Speaker 1 (01:08:24):
I mean, it's just I at this point the only Yeah,
Philadelphia is the only team these next couple of weeks
that I would even consider taking from the Thanksgiving slate
based upon the only other one that I would take
is Baltimore the week before Thanksgiving because I think we'll
have a lot of information in hand, and they play

(01:08:46):
home to the Jets. So if like Baltimore becomes a
wagon and I know I'm not taking them on Thanksgiving
because everybody else is going to take them against Cincinnati,
then you're gonna end up getting Jets it. You're gonna
get end up getting Baltimore at home against the Jets
at like twenty ownership where they're gonna be like minus fourteen.
So that's the only Thanksgiving team that I think I

(01:09:09):
would take ahead of Thanksgiving other than Philadelphia obviously. So yeah,
decisions to be had. Leaning Philadelphia right now, I could
very easily be talked into Atlanta or New England. So
maybe I bust out their randomizer again and see the

(01:09:31):
chips fall where they may it saved me. It's saved me.
It saved me the one week where I was gonna
be perhaps on Atlanta with DP but the randomizer saving
all right. Follow these guys on Twitter at Donnie Underscore, Peters,
at Brett Colson co Double l Son, and at Monora
and you double w R A H. I'm at rich
T Ryan. Best of luck in your betting ventures. Check

(01:09:54):
at Gridiron Gamble for final picks. Until then, peace as