2025 Week 9: Chalk Reigns Supreme

The Collective look to put together a sixth-straight winning week, and are embracing the trend of chalk supremacy. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:09):
The Welcome Back to.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great Ier Caamble, the only podcast that puts its money
where its mouth is. I'm your host, Rich Ryan, and
I'm joined by the entire collective, the Disciple, Brett Colson,
Donnie D. P. Peters, and the resident Moose himself mo
No no Wara. If you're watching this on YouTube, please like

(00:33):
the video and subscribe to the channel. Listeners, rate and
review on your podcaster are of choice five stars only.
Like Minka fitz Patrick, a member of the Greatest Football
is the Greatest level team seven to three currently on
Thursday Night Football. I am holding a Dolphins and Under ticket,

(00:57):
so that missed field goal just now is very conflicting.
Would have gotten the Dolphins a little bit closer, but
I'll kind of take it for the under. Brett. I
want to jinx you real quick because another bet that
I have in my account is Los Doyers minus one
twenty nine to win the series, and I just want

(01:18):
to congratulate you and your Toronto Blue Jays on winning
the twenty twenty five World Series.

Speaker 1 (01:24):
Congrats Grassias as it blue Ya's Blue yayss the Doyers
and the Blue Yeays.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
That's definitely what our guy Vladdie Junior refers to his
team name. Man, that guy having an unbelievable postseason, unbelievable
World Series. Two home runs and three pitches off blakes.
Now is that good? Can something?

Speaker 3 (01:46):
Mo?

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Can you tell me if that's good or not? The
Jay's were able to do that?

Speaker 3 (01:52):
What is maybe having? I just I don't know if
I've ever seen where a guy just is hitting like this.
I mean, if you throw it outside the zone, he
won't swing. And if you throw it inside the zone,
it's not for sure going to be like a home
run or even a hit. But the ball's coming off
the bat over one hundred every time. It's just like

(02:14):
this is He's basically Barry Bonds right now.

Speaker 2 (02:18):
Really incredible stuff, fun, fun World Series? Baseball, Man, playoff baseball, playoff. Hockey.
Seasons are just way too long. There are sports that
I've been disconnected with for a long time, but when
it comes to playoff time, both those sports are absolutely electric.
And speaking of electric, five straight winning weeks for the collective,

(02:40):
during which we are eighteen and seven against the spread.
We've crept above five hundred now for the season twenty
one and nineteen, and that is all good and gravy.
But man, oh man, we lost our last survivor entry
last week because the stupid Atlanta Falcons, cook Car, stupid

(03:06):
Kirk Cousins. All they had to do was tell me
that Drake London was doubtful on Saturday, instead of waiting
until after lineup lock, waiting until that like Adam Schefter
midnight news dump to say that Drake London wasn't gonna
play football, because then they would have just been immediately
removed from my process. Alas tried to get cute thought

(03:31):
ownership would shift off of Atlanta on to Cincinnati with
the injury news that we knew. And what hurts most
of all, Brett is that the Eagles come in not
at five percent, they come in at sub three percent ownership.
Brutal stuff.

Speaker 1 (03:49):
We had it, we had it pinned, You had it pinned,
and we tinkered. We should not have tinkered. It's tinker season,
but we really should not have tinkered last week. I
think we tinkering crossed a game and in circum millions too.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
Yeah, jts instead of the Commies. But four and one. Nonetheless,
let's get into week nine and we start, as always
with split contests with our one hosts on one side
and one hosts on the other. And we'll start in
Big D as the Dallas Cowboys play host to the
Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys are minus two and a half
point favorites in the contest, and Brett is back on

(04:24):
his original swoon for the twenty twenty five NFL season,
and that is Jonathan Ganna, Jonathan gannon Zona and them Boys.

Speaker 1 (04:34):
Yeah, at least stink for me. This is just a
leverage spot team coming off a buye that should be rested, healthier,
more prepared. Do we even know what it's playing quarterback? Yeah?
I'm not sure really matters because this Dallas defense has
leaks everywhere. Their bottom of the league in several passing
and rushing metrics. I I understand like Dak is having

(04:55):
an outstanding season. He deserves all the kudos he's getting,
but I have to take the points here. If Kyler
is back under center, especially because of his ability to
make plays in multiple ways and this, I think if
it's two and a half, look ahead of three. I
think we're looking at three in the market right now,
or at least close. It's heading there. It's an expensive

(05:16):
two and a half This is going to be super
popular in the contest as well, so one of my
favorite leverage spots in recent weeks. To be honest, I
really like this one.

Speaker 2 (05:26):
It's kind of bizarre to me because you're right, the
market is showing tons of love for the Cowboys here
with this pressure pushing it to three. It's like people
didn't watch them get absolutely destroyed last week by the Broncos.
It just goes to show how sour the market is
and betters are on the Arizona Cardinals. There was a

(05:48):
slight bump there with Jacoby Brissett, the slightest of bumps,
but now it is likely back to Kyler Murray and
people just have this gross taste in their mouth when
it comes to Kyler. I think this is like you
set a smash leverage spot. But I still do believe
in Dallas, so I couldn't muster a ton of support
for the Cardinals. DP is laying it with the Cowboys.

Speaker 4 (06:14):
Yeah. I have a pretty easy approach to betting the
Cowboys or picking the Cowboys in this contest, and I
bet if you were to look back at my history
in this contest, it's pretty much follows this exact trend,
but like you just find spots to fade them and
then you just hop right back on them the next week.
I told you, guys, they were going to get destroyed
by Bonnicks last week. I told you guys, and it happened. Okay,

(06:37):
it was the obvious letdown spot earlier this season, I
told you it was a letdown spot for them against
the Bears when they went up to Chicago. They looked
like ass there too. So I'm just gonna flip the
script this week, keep it simple, keep to my process here,
and get back on them here. I've heard a lot
about how you know, pointing out their defense is trash,

(06:57):
and yes, their defense is not that good, and I hear,
I hear, I understand where I think people are gonna
end up with this one in the contest, and I
am gonna be on the fish side. But I have
heard a fair amountal love for the Cardinals in this spot.
So that also kind of makes me just want to
push back and stick to my process of just kind
of like one week I do one thing, the next

(07:17):
week I go one to eighty with the Cowboys, and
I don't know, I feel like I've done alright with
it overall.

Speaker 2 (07:22):
Brett was all in love with Shane Stike in last
week and they covered a big number at home against
the Tennessee Titans. Now they are favorites once again, this
time traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. A
full three in Circus Sports million, and we bring Moe
in because he's got the strongest opinion on this game
on Indiana. Daniel Jones and the Colts to cover on

(07:47):
the road here.

Speaker 3 (07:48):
Yeah, I mean, why would this look any different than
last week? I guess. I mean, the Packers should have
destroyed the Steelers. It kind of ended up being that
way late, but you know it ended up the first
half wasn't great, right, the missed field goals, all that stuff.
I don't think any of that's predictive. I think the
fact that the Packers were constantly able to move the

(08:11):
ball on this defense as predictive. And this is just
maybe a better offense than the Packers. I just I
know this is a massive fish play, but I just
can't look at this game and see anything other than
the Colts moving the ball constantly because that's what they
do every week. And the Steelers kind of suck, They

(08:34):
kind of can't stop the run. I don't see why
I would believe the Colts would not score basically whatever
they want to score here. And I mean, I know
their defense probably isn't great, but good luck keeping up
with that. So I just don't I hesitate to click

(08:54):
on the Colts, but I just I think this line
is not high enough. So I just I put the
Bolts in my top five. But I really didn't want
this to be my play, even though I think that
this line should be closer to five.

Speaker 2 (09:11):
DONNYE Pylon, you two have Indy in your top five?

Speaker 4 (09:15):
Is is Mike Tomlin gonna cover a tight end? Or
is Tyler Warren just gonna have two hundred yards? I mean,
because he never covers tight ends. He hasn't covered tight
ends forever. I'm with Mo. You know, I think this
Colts team is I would describe it as more efficient
than the Packers. The Packers took a whole half to
get going to like figure it out. I mean, Rich,
you were talking on the discord, why don't they just
do this the whole game? Like eventually they started, you know,

(09:39):
throwing those little shorter passes going a little bit faster,
obviously feeding craft and then they you know, from that
point on, they blew out this too. So this Colts
team is just a freaking efficient engine. Like they do
everything on offense like I feel like, perfectly, and they
put up huge numbers all the time. I mean, what

(09:59):
their defense is, I guess they're a weak point, but
even their defense is decent good, Like I mean, they're
not the best, yes, but when you have that offense
playing as well as they are, scheming up plays like
they are going against the defense that I know is
just gonna do their own stupid thing like they've been
doing for twenty years or however long that they've been
doing it over there, Like the Steelers are not going

(10:20):
to change in my opinion. So I think the Colts
are just gonna come in. I think they're gonna they're
gonna absolutely just boat race this team. What's gonna stop them?

Speaker 1 (10:29):
Honestly, I think one thing.

Speaker 2 (10:31):
I know, in fact, I know exactly what's gonna stop them.
I know exactly here we go.

Speaker 4 (10:36):
You got a freaking doll, but you're gonna hang up a.

Speaker 2 (10:37):
Voodoo dolls, all right? Do you know exactly why the
Steelers are going to win this game? Out right? And
it's voodoo. This is just the voodoo spot of the
year for Mike Tomlin. We know he's going to get
to nine and eight somehow, some way, and this just
seems like the dreamiest of spots. Ninety three percent of

(10:58):
the handle is on Indianapolis. Indy has played the third
easiest schedule in football to date. They've been playing the
game on easy mode. And this is just the spot. Guys.
I don't know how else to put it. There's no
smart way to articulate this other than this is the
Tomlin voodoo spot. We've seen it for a decade plus,

(11:20):
where the Steelers come out, they compete in this game,
they find a way to win a weird game outside
against a dome team, and everyone is going to be
scratching their heads on Sunday night, how did the Steelers
do it again? And it's just it's just voodom right,
you had the Steelers low, but you're doing a lot
of nodding over there.

Speaker 1 (11:39):
Yeah, that's exactly what's going to happen, because that's what
always happens. And yeah, I have this at the bottom
of my car. I couldn't bring myself to have like
Steelers in my top five because they do stink and
the Colts look like a wagon right now. But I
can totally see this being that game. Like you said that,
people are just like, what the hell just happened? How
did the Colts lose this game? Well, it's because Tomlin

(11:59):
just finds a to do this. They're going to force
like three turnovers, one's going to be returned for a touchdown,
and they win by three points.

Speaker 4 (12:07):
That's how they do it. Though you have the Daniel
Jones pumpkin game, like out of nowhere, he turns back
into Daniel Jones.

Speaker 2 (12:14):
Yep, it's getting to the to the point of the season.
Where is the pumpkin possibility Like the pumpkin possibility meter
for Daniel Jones, where is it right now? It's at
its lowest point, you would think from what we've seen
and how of efficient this offense has operated. But we
saw it last year. I'm not saying this game matters,

(12:35):
but we saw it last year when it came to
playoff time with Sam Darnold. Right Like, the pumpkin meter
isn't at zero yet, and I don't think this is
the spot. I don't think this is the high leverage
when it matters spot where Daniel Jones could pumpkin because
of pressure. Yeah, it's just I just seen Tom Wlin
do this time and time again, and instead of banging

(12:58):
my head against the table and always fading Tomlin and
never buying into the voodoo, this is for you, ODB.
This is hashtag no stubbornness. I'm just I'm buying into
the voodoo. I wanted to break the Steelers my top play,
but I knew I would get so much pushback that
I couldn't do it.

Speaker 3 (13:16):
Weren't you the one saying this is the year was over?

Speaker 2 (13:19):
Yeah, but I came to my senses. I've been saying
this is the year it's gonna be over for since
probably since I've been doing this podcast. So maybe maybe
it all takes is me me to jump on the
bandwagon and then it's it's finally an a collapse. That's
the straw that's gonna break the Tomlin back Hawks at Commanders.

(13:42):
I'll keep it with myself because I have the highest
opinion on this game, and it is on the Seattle Seahawks.
I've been just truly impressed with what Mike McDonald has
done with this team both sides of the ball. Now
they come out of the by as healthy as they've
been on d we every week we've tiptoed with trepidation

(14:04):
around this Hawks defense because of some of the injuries,
and every week they still continue to produce. And now
they're super healthy, so they get to play Jayden Daniels,
who is likely playing through a lower body injury which
reduces his ability to be a high end player that

(14:25):
we saw last year. On top of that, he's just
naturally regressed from the player that we saw last year.
This team got absolutely punked by most Chiefs on Monday Night,
and now you've got one of the most efficient offenses
in the league, just like the Colts. Like when are
they going to stop performing at this level? Who knows?

(14:47):
And I don't know if the public is fully biden
to bought into Seattle yet at least enough to lay
three points in a spot against the team that maybe
Curry's some favor Still perhaps not though, So Yeah, I
like the Hawks here. I liked fading a hobbled Jade Daniels.

(15:11):
And then later on the season, if he's ever fully
healthy and people are baking in when he was playing poorly,
that might be the time to get back on the Comedis.
But right now, I think it's a wise decision to
fade a hobbled Jadon Daniels. Donnie, you're on the other side.
You've got Washington bubbling your top five.

Speaker 4 (15:30):
Yeah. I mean they kind of made it up high
on my card, not necessarily by choice. I kept moving
stuff down, and by process, other stuff just kept getting
moved up, and eventually I had to click submit to
send this freaking card into you. So I ended up
the Commander's here. I don't know, I feel like this spot.

(15:51):
I feel like like you feel about the Steelers, Like
I feel like people are high on the Seahawks. They're
coming off the by you got the injuries that Washington
is dealing with. Jaden Daniels does not look like the
Jayden Daniels of last year. I mean, this team looks
like a mass They just got their doors blown off
by the Chief. So, I don't know. I feel like
the easy buttons you click Seattle, I feel like that's

(16:11):
what everyone's gonna do. So I'm like, I gotta fade
that side, and that's that's that was my process for
ending up on the Commanders here.

Speaker 2 (16:18):
I'm so confused though. The last time Seattle played a
football game, everybody was on the other side. Every fake
sharp was on the Texans and complaining about how the
Seahawks won and covered that game. So I just don't
think they're gonna just pivot and all of a sudden.

Speaker 3 (16:33):
The tickets on Seattle doesn't convince you that that might
be the public side.

Speaker 1 (16:38):
Well, that's probably gonna change. And now that Daniels has
been I mean practice in full today and this is
now an expensive three, it looks like it looks like
it's had it down to two and a half. That'll
be interesting to see where it is on Saturday, because people,
I think pivot. People might pivot over to the Commanders
if this is I mean, if they are getting some
some line value off a key number.

Speaker 2 (16:56):
I skipped over the big injury news. Terry McLaurin has
already been ruled out with a quadriceps injury, which I
think is playing into the early support in the market
for Seattle. But like Brett said, once Jane Daniels's situation
is cemented fully toward towards going, I think that could
have an impact on this as well. We move out

(17:21):
west to the desert where the Raiders are taking on
the Jaguars, and Moe is taking a team off of
the by laying points on the road this time, and
it is with Jacksonville.

Speaker 3 (17:35):
Yeah, why would man? There's a few of these games
this week where I just what would make me think
the Raiders are going to play a competitive football game
against a reasonable NFL team? I mean, somebody tell me
why this line is under three.

Speaker 1 (17:51):
Because I got the brock Bowers pack the goat.

Speaker 3 (17:54):
Okay, well, let's imagine brock Bauers was out for Okay,
should this line be six and a half? I mean,
is a tight end worth four points? This makes no
sense to me. I just can't. I don't understand what
anybody could look at and think this is going to
be a competitive game when the Raiders play another decent

(18:17):
football team, like yeah, I mean, can they beat the Titans? Sure,
we've seen that. I don't think that Jaguars are like good,
but they're okay, And they have a coach who is
smart and has been thinking about football and advanced ways
for the last several years. And the Raiders have a
dinosaur who I thought could come in and help this team.

(18:41):
This is my version of what Rich was just saying
I thought the Raiders were gonna be decent, and we
have multiple weeks of evidence that this is a horrific
football team with a washed coach. They should beat massive
underdogs against anybody with a pulse. And this line is
under three, and I think the Jags have a pulse.

(19:01):
So I just can't understand why this line would be
where it is. But yeah, I just I had to
put the Jags where they're at. I understand that probably
everybody is going to be on the Jags, but this
is just a nonsensical line.

Speaker 2 (19:18):
You're not going to get any pushback whatsoever because I'm
the highest on the Raiders and I have them as
my penultimate selection. And honestly, it was just me not
being able to put an X next to the Jaguars
as field goal favorites on the road in pro football.
But the one thing that kept nagging me and didn't
allow me to give this any confidence points or put

(19:40):
any gusto behind it is Liam Cohen bye week. Getting
this offense to where it needs to be. There is
a non zero chance that they're going to come out
and feature a lot of their rookies. Feature both Travis
Hunter and base Shall Tuton. Give this offense little bit

(20:00):
of a turbo boost and it could be a much
better unit than it has been so far. And if
that's the case, then I think this line is more
fair and definitely could be teetering in the direction of
not being high enough. So that's the best defense you're
going to get for the Raiders. Nobody here is going
to be able to really pick up the flag for them.

(20:22):
The last game Panthers at Packers. The Packers are thirteen
and a half point favorites in the contests. Yes, as
they are in real life. This was a look ahead
of ten and a half preseason was seven and a half.
But now the Panthers have not only two bad quarterbacks,
but two banged up bad quarterbacks. Bryce has been back

(20:45):
at practice as a full participant all week, though most
faith says it all. He has the Carolina Panthers in
his top lite.

Speaker 3 (20:56):
Why yeah, why do we think Bryce is banged up?

Speaker 1 (20:58):
Full participant a row?

Speaker 2 (21:00):
He didn't play football last week, so I would think.

Speaker 3 (21:03):
Ready to go. I just this line is just too
high for me. I know that the Packers are very good,
and I know that the Panthers are pretty bad. I
was the one telling you guys that they were going
to get smoked last week, and you guys tried to
tell me that might be a competitive football game. But

(21:23):
Andy Dalton, there's just a theme of some of these
games last week and coming into this week for me
is where you know, I don't want to be too
racial on this podcast, but thirty seven year old white quarterbacks,
backups who haven't done anything decent on a football field

(21:45):
in years. Guys, they got crushed last week.

Speaker 4 (21:48):
Weird.

Speaker 3 (21:49):
And then you know, the Ravens just bring in a
mobile guy with dark skin who can move, and what
do you know, they won the football game. Weird. Thirty
seven year old white guys are not good anymore, guys.
I know that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, these guys
started off from a Hall of Fame peak. That's why

(22:10):
they were able to still smooth out the curve. And
these guys who were just reasonable quarterbacks and our thirty
seven are done. They cannot play anymore. So Andy Dalton,
bless his heart. No, Like I understand that on paper,
people were like, oh, you know, Andy Dalton, Bryce, No,
the difference is maybe pretty big, guys. One guy can't

(22:32):
play pro football anymore the other guy can. So I
think with Bryce Young, you have a decent quarterback versus
a horrific quarterback. And last week you had them against
a Bill's offense that was just ready to truck somebody.
And I think they can at least keep up with

(22:53):
this version. You know, this version of the Panthers can
keep up with somebody. That's why I was like, Okay,
last week, they're gonna have no answer, but I think
they can at least score some points, and you know,
cover thirteen and a half here. It's not like I'm
just like running to the window to bet the Panthers,
but I do think this line is too high. Plus
another thing, they play the style you want from a

(23:14):
team that's trying to cover thirteen and a half because
they're gonna come out and pound the rock with Rico Dawdle.
So that'll at least slowly came down a little bit.

Speaker 2 (23:23):
Brett, You've got the highest opinion on your a's smattering
of confidence points.

Speaker 1 (23:33):
Yeah, not a not a lot here for me. I
just think the Packers are phenomenal in every facet you've got. Now,
Carolina again, you know, I love to take this team
at home. Not so on the road. They're gonna be
playing outdoors in the cold in Green Bay. But it
is a lot of points. As Moe said, and Bryce

(23:54):
Young and you know, Teto McMillan, they have guys who
can march down the field. So that's why I wasn't
all that confident in it.

Speaker 2 (24:03):
The other thing helping the Panthers. The Packers twenty fourth
in situation neutral pace, So you're gonna need to run
a lot of plays and score a lot of points
to cover thirteen and a half in pro football. So yeah,
when you're getting thirteen and a half, every little bit
of advantage counts. Those are split contests. Let's get to

(24:24):
some lone wolves. Only one member of the collective with
a lone wolf in their top five. But we'll start
with Moe, who has a trio, and we'll start with

(24:45):
just as he was beaking about old thirty seven year
old white quarterbacks, he's taking the three and a half
point the three points, excuse me? With Joe Flacco and
Cincinnati Bengals.

Speaker 3 (24:59):
Well, he actually a washed guy whose arm hasn't degraded
to the point where he can't do anything. I mean,
So there's that. But yeah, this is a game where
it's a weird one for me because my numbers are
telling me to slam all in on the Bengals, because
I think that it's kind of absurd that they're three
point home paper. It's here against a Bears team that

(25:20):
is pretty bad. Like, let's just be honest about what
the Bears are. Like, I know that they've had some
decent results this year. They have been so fortunate and
just there is a titanic mismatch on the edge with
this secondary that has no healthy players left against an
elite pair of receivers. I think that the Bengals should

(25:43):
be able to move the ball. But the only thing
that's stopping me is basically what Rich was saying about
the Bengals. He said that maybe this defense has just
folded up shop and quit. And with Trey Hendrickson on
the injury report, yeah, I don't know how I can
realistically be confident that the Bengals aren't gonna just fold

(26:04):
up again. But I do think this line is way
too high though. Man, this line was close to pick
early in the week, and I think that's right. So
somebody is coming out and pounding the Bears. I will
say I somewhat understand it. From the standpoint of the
injury report is looking much much better for the Bears
than the Bengals. I was very concerned yesterday when I

(26:25):
did my initial look and every single wide receiver on
the Bears was DNP. But it looks like they were
just resting these guys, so they're probably okay. But yeah,
I just there's a huge mismatch on the edge here,
So I think the Bengals have a chance in this game.

Speaker 2 (26:42):
Say for Luther Burden, who is in the protocol very
unlikely to go in this game. Yeah, everybody else was
back at practice. DJ Moore, Romadenz and Olameade something Zechias.
I think the Chiefs. You talk about the chiefsgo the Bears,
you talk about them being lucky. I thought they were

(27:03):
unlucky last week. One of three in the red zone,
like they were fine yards for play wide six yards
per play Caleb was above I think it was at
seven and a half yards per attempt. And this is
the Bengals teem to can't stop anybody. The Jets just
marched on them. The Jets scored thirty eight points with
Tyler Johnson w R one against this team. The corpse

(27:27):
of breeze. Hall was ripping off explosive plays against this
Cincinnati defense. So I don't know, man, I think this
is a game where Ben Johnson can get into his
bag and name the score. And I just don't know
the frequency with which Flacco can stay upright long enough
and have success on offense. And I understand that Higgins

(27:50):
and Chase are incredible players, but the Jets were missing
sauce last week, and the second half passing offense for
the Cincinnati was pretty much non existent. The last two
drives the clamped by these randoms on the Jets. So yeah,
I think that the Bears can score here at will,
and I just don't trust Flacco and the Bengals to

(28:10):
keep up. Donnie agrees he also has shy Town in
his top five.

Speaker 4 (28:15):
I mean, Flacco's got an ac joint injury in his
throwing shoulder, an injury that I have had, and it
hurts like fucking hell. Okay, And Flacco is forty Okay,
so if you want to talk about old ass qbs,
I'm also forty one. I know when you stub your toe,
it takes you three days to recover, Okay, Like, how
the hell are you gonna go out there and play
a pro football game with this injury. I mean, I

(28:38):
agree on the fact that the Bengals d is trash.
I think this offense can for the Bears can look
very very good. Caleb can look very very good. The
offensive line should very much win against the Bengals front.
I mean, they can just put up a ton of
points here and then you know, if the Bengals can't
get anything going on their side of the ball. Like

(28:59):
Rich said, this feels like name your score.

Speaker 3 (29:03):
Yeah, I probably should have mentioned Joe Flacco when I
was saying the injuries report looked looked good for the Bears.
That was definitely part of it. I'm definitely worried about that.

Speaker 2 (29:14):
Let's move to Houston as the Texans take on the
Bronco Bulls and Horses, definitely make those sounds and mo
is taking the one and a half points with bow
Nicks and Invoice.

Speaker 3 (29:35):
Well, I guess we can make this a quick one then,
because I'm not that confident in Denver. But yeah, I
did think this was probably wrong team favored. But at
the same time, you know, I have some concerns on
the Denver side. I guess on the in the pro
Denver side. The big thing for me is just very obvious.
This is an elite pass rush. This is the worst

(29:56):
offensive line in the NFL. I know that CJ. Stroud
made some throws under pressure, which is completely what I
expected to be honest, That's why I was all over
the Texans in that game last week. But this is
a much, much, much different situation. And yeah, I think
that he's likely to get buried the way he did
against the Seahawks when they couldn't do anything. But but

(30:16):
I can't trust bon Nicks either. That's the problem here.
This This Texan secondary is very good and they specifically,
I think I've noted, they played the deep ball very
very well. So this is a Broncos offense that is
basically completely reliant on the deep ball. They're horrific on
a per play basis throwing the ball, but you know

(30:39):
bo Nicks is able to hit those deep shots. But
then again they might only need a couple of those
in this game. So yeah, I just I couldn't muster
any real confidence, but I do think Denver should probably
be minus one here.

Speaker 2 (30:52):
Well, if you want confidence, Brett has Houston in his
top five.

Speaker 1 (30:57):
Yeah, I think what we saw offensively from Houston coming
out of the by last week was real change, not
just noise. Like Houston leaned into a heavier run structure.
They used six offensive linemen and it seemed to settle
everything down. For CJ. Stroud, I mentioned in the discord
last week, he looked awesome last week. That's the first

(31:17):
time we really seen that since what twenty twenty three, Like,
that's the version. That's the version of Houston and CJ.
Stroud that we saw even late last year too, And
I think this might be the moment when they start
playing up to that siling again. I think there's a
coaching aspect here too. Now that Demico Ryans is handed
off defensive play calling, He's now freed up to focus

(31:38):
more on each room in that locker room, Like what
is this team's offensive identity? How are they preparing for
each of these games? I think that helps them as well.
And the offense just looked way more intentional in what
they were doing last week. I was I was really
impressed with that. And now you look across the field too,
like Denver's defense now without Patrick Surtan, right, like that dude,

(32:02):
he's not just a cornerback. He's like, that's the entire
structure of that defense, and without him, like you can't
shade coverage and take away half the field. And that's
I think that really benefits c J. Stroud in this
Texans offense this week. And then yeah, I mean on
the Knicks end, he's really only looked good against bottom
tier defenses when he has faced speed and pressure. He's

(32:25):
just he's shaky. And this Texas defense is I mean,
there's just a top three unit, especially when they're at home.
So to me, this is Houston kind of growing into
the rating that we had them at before the season,
and I think probably Denver and Bonnicks may be playing
a little bit above theirs.

Speaker 2 (32:43):
And Houston unsurprisingly had their struggles against what Dvoa is
saying has been the fifth toughest schedule to date in
the NFL, whereas Denver has played the twenty seventh toughest
schedule to date in addition to that Certan injury. He
is doubtful, but it seems like it's pretty much out
with that Peck injury. Marvin Mims is in concussion protocol

(33:05):
and if part of the cap MO is that Denver
needs to hit on one of these high variant shots
in a game with a total of forty That becomes
more challenging when Mims is sidelined. Of course, Troy florank
frank Troy Franklin has the same ability to get downfield,
but Mims is definitely integral in those types of deep attacks.
And we cannot leave without saying that Nico Collins has

(33:29):
been back at practice and does not even have an
injury designation this week for Houston, which is a massive
boost to an offense that did look like they took
somewhat of a step forward last week. And then the
market on top of that, the market has just massive
support for Houston for a second consecutive week. All right,
last lone wolf for mo also low Tyler Schuck makes

(33:56):
his NFL debut at quarterback for the New Orleans Saints
and it's catching thirteen and a half points traveling to
the City of Angels to take on the Rams.

Speaker 3 (34:06):
Wow, you guys really have turned over newly. Everybody laying
thirteen and a half here? I mean, I don't know,
this line seemed fineish to me. I thought it was
a little bit high. I mean, the Saints are still
playing with some pride like they have not quit. They're
not gonna quit like the you know what you were

(34:27):
saying about the Bengals. This team is still bringing in
as best they can. They've done that all year on
both sides of the ball. Really, I mean, do I
believe in something Shook. No? But this defense is still
playing relatively solid. They kind of kicked the bucks.

Speaker 4 (34:41):
Asses last week.

Speaker 3 (34:42):
I mean, they have like no yards. All their scoring
drives were like off twenty yard drives off turnovers. I
think the Saints are playing somewhat decent on defense. So
against an immobile quarterback here, I think they they possibly
could still make this game. I mean, I think double
digit line is fair. So I'm not gonna sit here

(35:04):
and tell you that this is a stupid line or anything. Yeah,
I don't know what to think here. I don't know
how anybody could know what to think about something Shook.
We I didn't watch him in college. I saw nothing
good from him in terms of like offseason draft discourse
and all that. But I mean, I don't know. Maybe

(35:24):
the Saints can can you know, coach and effort their
way to a closer game than people think. When I
think Kellen Moore has done a good job this year.
He's got not a lot.

Speaker 1 (35:35):
To work with.

Speaker 3 (35:36):
This is a terrible roster. I thought this might be
the worst roster in the NFL to start the season,
and they just have not really looked like it this year.

Speaker 2 (35:44):
Yeah, to your point of not quitting, you're seeing the
same with my fighting jets as well. With a new coach.
It's only been eight weeks now, so it's not like
the message has soured to the point like with a
Mike McDaniel or one of these other coaches that's been
there for a while and they've just heard it over
and over and over again. It's still a new coach,
is still somebody that they want to get up and

(36:06):
play for. With regards to Shuck, I actually bet the
over in this game over forty four because if he's
going to be a turnover machine and if he's going
to be willing to throw the ball downfield as well,
he kind of showed this in the preseason. I think
that just plays into the over perfectly. Like could be
a lot of short fields again for the Rams, as

(36:28):
it was for the Bucks last week. So I'm kind
of playing into the variants with that bet as well.
But from a side perspective, DP is the highest on
the Rams. He's got them in the middle.

Speaker 4 (36:40):
I mean, Shuck couldn't beat out Spencer Rattler in the
preseason and now he's just going to come in here
against one of the best teams in the league.

Speaker 3 (36:46):
And just.

Speaker 4 (36:48):
I mean, I agree that the Saints have not like
they're not a team that I think has given up.
I would agree with you, Mo, but I mean, if
you just don't have it a quarterback, you like, I
don't really understand what you're gonna do. And I'm sorry,
I mean call me the residence square here. I obviously am,
but I can't get around the fact that literally every
favorite every single week just blows doors, Like what so

(37:10):
so what the heck? Yeah, most the Rams might just
win this game by thirty.

Speaker 2 (37:14):
Most said we're coming around and no longer just taking
these things. Well, favorites are covering a fifty seven in
this contest, So what are we supposed to do if
they just keep smashing? Yeah, we're not gonna again rule
of ODB. We're not going to continue being stubborn. We're
gonna put a couple exits next to a couple minuses, just.

Speaker 4 (37:34):
Like It's not like came in that this weekend was good.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
Unbelievable transition there, and you just stepped on.

Speaker 4 (37:41):
Sorry, I can barely hear with this freaking thing on
my head.

Speaker 2 (37:44):
Okay, putting an X next to a favorite like Brett
did the.

Speaker 1 (37:52):
Bills make me a wanna.

Speaker 2 (37:55):
Laying the two and a half points with Moe's beloved
Kansas City Chiefs as they travel to Orchard Park to
take on your fight and Bills.

Speaker 3 (38:06):
I knew Brett was going to be all in on
the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (38:08):
Of course. I just think the Chiefs are a meaningfully
better football team than Buffalo right now.

Speaker 2 (38:15):
Well, of course that's why they're two and a half
point run favorites.

Speaker 1 (38:19):
But even this, like I don't even know that the
market has fully caught up, Like the Chiefs are better
on offense, defense, special teams, coaching. We all love Josh Allen,
but don't I still don't think he's Mahomes. And even
if you want to give that slight edge to Josh Allen,
like what other edge as Buffalo is supposed to have
in this game, and the matchup is brutal now, the

(38:40):
defense already thin coming in now they're about they're down.
Both starting defensive tackles at Oliver Daequon Jones plus Taylor
rapp Is out Milano and Tonto Bernard still aren't right.
And that is the entire spine of the defense. And
where does Kansas City love to attack right down the
middle of the field. They do it as often or
more often than any other team in the league with
Kelsey Rashid Rice. That's exactly where Buffalo is the weakest.

(39:04):
So I don't love this from a matchup standpoint. Meanwhile,
Casey's defense top six and pressure rate and the Bills
really haven't faced any tough pass rushes yet this year,
and Alan just hasn't looked like himself. I think the
one game where he did seal like a league average
pass rush was against Atlanta and it was his worst
game of the year. So Kansas City's a big step

(39:25):
up there. And worst of all, I think Allen's just
not getting any help from his receivers in a game
where they're probably gonna have to throw the football. I
haven't seen him look like this since his rookie year,
where he's just holding the ball and holding the ball,
and it's because these guys aren't separating there's just too
much pressure on him this year to do everything, and
he's gonna make plays he did last year in this spot,

(39:47):
But Kansas City, they're just different this year. They have
all the answers, they're healthier, they're more complete, and I
think they're peaking right now. And the narrative coming in is,
of course, the Chiefs haven't beaten the Bills in the
regular season in years, but I think I think that
changes here.

Speaker 3 (40:01):
You know, Amar, are you saying the Bills could use
somebody like Xavier Worthy?

Speaker 1 (40:06):
Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. I like how we're
both going.

Speaker 2 (40:10):
I like how we were both going for the same
joke with just different versions of it. You were when
zay We're Worthy. I was gonna go with the Mary
Cooper still available.

Speaker 1 (40:19):
No, Amari's he's enjoying the retired life. I'm sure. I
think he's officially done.

Speaker 2 (40:26):
I'm technically at the highest opinion on the Bills, but
it is not that high. I think this line is
very fair, and I just put an X next to
the team, which I think is going to be the
least popular selected in the contest. That being said, this
does feel like it's the old thirteen hundred side in
the contest. Everybody wants to have an opinion, so we
might as well kick it to Mo, who is again

(40:48):
the resident Chiefs fan. Football is just boring again, right
We Chiefs minus one eighty to win the Super Bowl.

Speaker 4 (40:56):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (40:56):
That was man. I mean when I thought they were
in just like a flat spot last week with multiple
tough games coming up, and then they just absolutely destroyed Washington.
I mean two straight games that they basically could have
won fifty nil. I mean the first game was basically
they didn't want to. The second game they just played
like dog shit for basically a quarter and a half.

(41:17):
And then after that literally Washington couldn't do anything. So,
I mean, I think some of the defensive stuff is
getting is a little bit fake. They still can't the
pass rush.

Speaker 1 (41:29):
Is all spags.

Speaker 3 (41:30):
It's literally just like.

Speaker 2 (41:31):
That being the numbers are telling me that this team
is not getting to the quarterback twenty fifth and pressure
rate twentieth in ad justin zack rate.

Speaker 3 (41:38):
Yeah, So like if that's all spags, then he's just
gonna have to outthink them. But at times when it
doesn't work, like in Week one, it's just like a
field day for opposing quarterback still, but usually he just
finds enough. But you know, just Bill's regular season at home,
it's a good spot for them, in a spot nobody
really believes in them. I can't believe him saying that,

(42:00):
but that's where we're at. That that's saying I do.
I do agree with a lot of Brett's points. Uh,
the success that the Bills have had against the Chiefs
is when they can when they can get in Mahomes's
face and make him uncomfortable. And I think at Oliver's
had a big, big hand in that. I'm seriously concerned
about this defense without him considering how bad they've been

(42:21):
with him. And then, uh, yeah, I do think Josh
Allen has played kind of poor this year. He just
hasn't been very good. So but I but he should
play better though that shouldn't really be predictive. But but
but it is true what Brett's saying.

Speaker 1 (42:37):
They got married. He's more than a football player.

Speaker 3 (42:39):
Now, Like I said, what if that's what if? That's it?
This is rule of Verlander. When you have somebody like
that waiting for you at home, you're not worried about
what happened at work that day.

Speaker 2 (42:53):
Okay, so water wet sky is blue. Brett fading the
Buffalo Bills, and Brett also fading, pissing me off, fading
Dan Campbell Detroit Lions.

Speaker 1 (43:07):
I mean, I don't have a whole lot here. I
actually have nothing for this game. I thought this line
was pretty fair. North of seven.

Speaker 2 (43:16):
DP has his boy in his top five?

Speaker 4 (43:21):
Yeah, I mean J J. McCarthy's playing, right. Is that
guy even good?

Speaker 3 (43:30):
Like? Is he bad?

Speaker 1 (43:32):
It's gotta be better than Wentz.

Speaker 4 (43:35):
I mean, you're just gonna throw them back in there
against the freaking Lions. This sounds like a disaster waiting
to happen.

Speaker 3 (43:43):
But I don't.

Speaker 4 (43:44):
I mean, the Lions are a wagon.

Speaker 3 (43:48):
I don't.

Speaker 4 (43:48):
I don't see it. With the Vikings. I can't. I
can't get behind the Vikings. I looked at this one
and I was just like, I feel like you should
just click the Vikings like the biggest was my first instinct.

Speaker 2 (43:59):
If the Vikings defense is really bad. They've played the
third of the schedule in football, and the only time
I've seen this Vikings defense look like the Vikings defense
is when it was Dylan Gabriel in London. That's the
only time I watched the Minnesota game and was like, oh, yeah,
Flora's is cooking, Like this is what it's supposed to

(44:20):
look like, and.

Speaker 4 (44:22):
Well, and how are you going to improve against a
team like the Lions, Like, it's not like they have
a lot of weak spots on offense.

Speaker 1 (44:31):
Van Ginkle has been practicing this week though, right, so,
I mean that's a big one if he comes back.

Speaker 2 (44:36):
Our guy, Mickey Doff said Floras gets too much credit.
This is a van Gingle team. The problem is is
they are playing the team in the league who wants
to run the ball more than any other team in football.
I saw one of those Ben Baldwin grafts this week

(44:57):
fourth and two and we just throw the ball out
about I mean, Tua, this is like life. I mean,
someone get the the independent spot are out there.

Speaker 3 (45:07):
This scheme is like the Dolphins are should maybe be
winning right now.

Speaker 2 (45:17):
Anyway. The Lions are second in the league to the Jets,
ironically enough on run rate on first down. They want
to cram the football, right, So how much is is
Van Gik going to help as somewhat of a pure
pass rusher against the team that just wants to play
bullyball and kick your ass up front, and the Vikings

(45:39):
are twenty fifth in rush defense EPA. So I'm very
terrified of the Lions getting out in front. And we
know Ben Johnson quote, I'll say it again, the Lions
score touchdowns, there will be no letting up, no taking
the foot off the gas, especially against a divisional opponent.
So as always, Lions alts are probably in play. Niners

(46:06):
at Giants. Step is laying the two and a half
on the road. With Kyle Shanahan and Mac Jones at quarterback,
it's a weekly conundrum. Who's gonna be ander center for
San Francisco.

Speaker 4 (46:21):
Yeah, I mean doesn't necessarily matter, it can't. Christian McCaffrey
just absolutely go nuts in this spot against the defense
that I don't think has fared very well against running
backs hall season long. I really want to like Robert
Salah and this forty nine Ers defense going up against
Jackson Dart specifically. I mean, I know it is a

(46:44):
little bit concerning last week seeing the lack of a
pass rush that they generated against a very bad offensive line,
or at least what we thought was a very bad
offensive line. Now, like Brett said earlier, maybe the Texans
are starting to round into form. Yes, but still, I
mean that unit hasn't been good and the forty nine
ers weren't really able to get anything going, so point

(47:06):
of concern there, Yes, but I don't know. I feel
like you lose Skataboo like that. I mean, I don't know.

Speaker 2 (47:15):
What's the difference between Skataboo and Tyrone Tracy. Come on,
not a lot.

Speaker 4 (47:20):
But you want to talk about heart rankings, buddy, you
want to talk about heart rankings. Where are they on
the heart rankings? Come on? Because one of them is
off the charts and that guy now is his ankle
snapped in half?

Speaker 2 (47:31):
But what if it's Dart? What if Dart is like
the heart emulsifier, and whoever he.

Speaker 3 (47:37):
Is, see him, he was devastated when his heart's ripped
in half. That's his boy.

Speaker 2 (47:44):
I love the spot for the Giants. There are just
so many check marks in their direction. First West Coast
team traveling east to play in the early slate. You
got the Giants coming off of a loss. You've got
everybody worried about something Skataboo when Tyrone Tracy is probably
just as good, maybe even better at football than something Skataboo.

(48:08):
You've got a Niners team that everyone is looking at
the logo and the helmet and they're prescribing all these
positive things to it, when in reality, this team is
a dumpster fire, an infirmaryward of injuries. There's no news
ever coming out about these injuries. So like, imagine the
guys in the locker room, like, what are we? What
kind of team are we? Who's going to be playing

(48:29):
this week when nobody knows what the hell's going on?
And now you have to go across the country with
a makeshift group of receivers, a probably bad quarterback in
mac Jones against this Giant's pass rush, which the numbers
still don't bear it out to be excellent only fourteenth
and adjusted. Zachraate, But I can't look at this roster

(48:54):
of pass rushers and not think that they're going to
have success against an offensive line that has taken a
step back this year. On top of all that, I
know Brett this is gonna be his number one point
because he too has the Giants in his top five.
It's two and a half compared to three. Everybody's gonna
want the full three and not put an X next

(49:17):
to Giants because it's only two and a half.

Speaker 1 (49:18):
Brett, Yeah, for sure, there's that. I agree with all
your points too, But the Diners looked horrendous last week,
especially on defense. I mean, Stroud had his best game
in two years. Like I said, some of that could
just be the Niners. The losses of Warner Bosa cannot
be understated. It looks like this team has lost its soul.

(49:40):
All the talk about Scatabo and the Giants losing the
soul of their team, well, I mean the Niners did
it two weeks ago. So I have ding them some
in my ratings, and I just think it's a good
spot to have Pop back on the g met.

Speaker 2 (49:52):
And everybody is going to rightfully point to the Giants
injuries because their entire secondary looks to be on the
injury right now. But if there's any team that's going
to struggle to take advantage of that, it's going to
be the team that's rolling out receivers who are either
hurt or not great. Like I think this is the

(50:15):
first week I haven't seen Juwan Jennings with an injury designation.
But you can't tell me that this guy isn't still
suffering something when he had five broken ribs and a
turned ankle like he's just being put together by stix
and gum at this point. So yeah, love the giants

(50:37):
in this spot. My lone wolf was extremely low. Oh no,
Donny's got one. No no, Donny has one, and I
have one as well. Mine's extremely low.

Speaker 3 (50:51):
It is.

Speaker 2 (50:53):
Super stubborn. Sorry, ODB, I am Martin Galing. The dumbass
Titans US eight and a half, zero confidence points, zero ranking.
Look at these looks. I just total of forty three
harball coach team. It's a lot of points. I have

(51:14):
no confidence. I would never bet this. Oh, come out,
take it away. You love the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (51:19):
Why is it a lot of points? Why would we
expect the Titans to be What's a lot of points
for the Titans? That's so relative it's not even double digits.
How is this not double digits? Someone explain it to me.
It's not a lot of points.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
The Titans Chargers are just are okay football team.

Speaker 3 (51:38):
Okay, but here's the thing about the Chargers. If you
don't pressure Justin Herbert, he will complete passes all day
and night.

Speaker 1 (51:47):
Okay.

Speaker 3 (51:48):
The Titans have no pass rushers left, so how can
they get a stop in this game? The Colts could
have scored fifty and the Chargers probably can too, and
the Titans can't physically score more than twenty points. So
I just I can't understand why this isn't double digits.
But I know everybody's gonna Actually, you know, out of

(52:11):
all the stupid favorites that I like this week, I
probably should have just put this one at the top,
just because rule of big favorites. Maybe people won't take
it in the contest, But man, I just this is
just like the Jags game to me, where I just
where is the evidence that the Titans can play a
competitive football game? You can't find any.

Speaker 2 (52:31):
All fair points. Just my reflexive sports betting take. Ugly
dogs just kicked in. It's the only, literally, the only
reason why I put an X next to next to Titans.

Speaker 3 (52:44):
Yeah, if they were getting eleven and a half, I'd
be like, Okay, ugly dog, I could see I can't
see it at eight and a half.

Speaker 2 (52:50):
Jeffrey Simmons trending towards missing again with the hamstring injury.
Calvin Ridley, same deal, something de mirror a decay w
R one for the Tennessee Titans. All right, I am
probably gonna tinker, but currently on the Titans, Donnie's on

(53:11):
the Niners. Brett's got the Chiefs and Vikings. Mo has
the Bengals, Broncos, and Saints.

Speaker 3 (53:18):
Which one was in the top five?

Speaker 4 (53:20):
Huh?

Speaker 3 (53:21):
You said there was one lone wolf in the top five.

Speaker 2 (53:24):
Chefs was Brett's Kansas City Chiefs. He hates. He hates
his own Buffalo Bills.

Speaker 1 (53:32):
Just my emotional heads. You guys know that, all right.

Speaker 2 (53:35):
Let's get two the week nine.

Speaker 3 (53:37):
Card nine eight.

Speaker 4 (53:47):
Five four three one fire.

Speaker 2 (53:55):
Donnie was four and one last week with the best
wreck amongst the collective, so he gets to select first,
and he has.

Speaker 4 (54:07):
We get to go against Moe's favorite, a forty year
old injured white quarterback in Joe Flacco, and we got
the Chicago Bears.

Speaker 2 (54:20):
I'm gonna throw this mixer out the window. These buttons
are killing. Brett is up next, three and two on
the week and picking at fifty two and eighteen on
the season, and he has.

Speaker 1 (54:35):
We are taking the best quarterback in the twenty twenty
three NFL draft, CJ. Stroud.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
I'm up next the twenty twenty two, twenty twenty.

Speaker 3 (54:52):
Twenty three is right?

Speaker 1 (54:52):
I think twenty three.

Speaker 2 (54:53):
Okay, that's correct. Question yourself MO three and two last
week as well, and even twenty and twenty on the season,
and you've got another rah are Yeah.

Speaker 3 (55:08):
I have three favorites that are very close, so I'm
willing to listen to you guys and or do some
tinkering right now. I have the Jags. It's close between Jags,
Colts and Chargers are all basically even for me.

Speaker 2 (55:26):
The more I think about Liam Cohen and this Jags
offense coming out of the by and getting on track,
the more I like the selection. So you're not going
to get much pushback for me. But again, as always,
there will be tinkering. Be sure to check it out
at grid ain Gamble on Twitter. Let's get to the

(55:47):
only consensus pick of the entire week, the collective pick.

Speaker 1 (56:04):
The collective chooses. The Atlanta Falcons.

Speaker 2 (56:09):
Are another will he won't he go? Although the trade
wins are definitely pointing in the direction of Michael Penick's
playing quarterback once again for Atlanta in this game. He's
practiced both days this week, excuse me, in a limited fashion.

(56:31):
The Falcons certainly hope that it is Michael Penix off
of the performance that Kirk Cousins had last week, and
more importantly, Drake London has also been in practice all
week as well, albeit in a limited fashion as well.
The Patriots, we've talked about her all year. They've played

(56:53):
the easiest schedule to date, they have the easiest future
schedule to date other than the Bills. The Falcons are
probably one of the toughest teams that they're going to
play for the rest of the season, and at five
and a half, this just feels a point, maybe even
two points higher than it should be. We know the

(57:15):
Falcons when things click, this offense can put up points.
We know how electric Bijon is both rushing and receiving,
and this Patriots defense has been pretty soft this year,
especially against the run. So if the Falcons can keep
pace and score in this game, this seems like an

(57:38):
absolutely insane number. In fact, every member of the Collective
had this in their top five mode. This was your
number one selection. It was sniped by the.

Speaker 3 (57:48):
Collect Yeah, I think you know we all are suspicious
of the Patriots. I certainly am, as much as I'm
enjoying the Drake mash Show and was a fan of
him in college. The fact that they can't run the
ball at all is probably one of the biggest things

(58:08):
that's pointing me to the Falcons here, because the main
thing the Falcons have going for them is that they've
been able to rush the passer quite effectively this year
against a pretty bad Patriots offensive line here, So I'm
just like, this is seems like a good matchup for
this defense since the Patriots cannot run the ball no

(58:29):
matter who they play, and now they're going to have
a really tough time of protecting their passer. So that
was my biggest thing here. I cat this at four,
so I think there's quite a bit of value at
five and a half. I'm surprised to see five and
a half since I thought the line was five for
most of the week, and then I see five and
a half, and then I see that influential offshores are

(58:52):
dealing very very expensive sixes. So apparently the Falcons are
a contrariant pick. Well, so I I really wanted this
to be my pick. And yeah, seventy eight percent of
the tickets flooding in on the Patriots. The Patriots love
is at an all time high, even though Donnie keeps

(59:13):
saying it's at an all time high. It's not because
they keep winning. So I want Donnie to tell me
how happy he is because I knew this selection would
make him incredibly happy.

Speaker 4 (59:23):
Yeah, let's go fade this stupid team already. I told
you guys, I'm gonna keep doing it, and I'm happy
that you guys are along with me.

Speaker 1 (59:30):
Now they keep covering though.

Speaker 4 (59:33):
Yeah, well, at some point it's got to work out, right,
I mean, come on, well.

Speaker 3 (59:37):
Last week they face a not NFL quarterback, So I
I told you that was that one was most warnings.
I had Patriots Donnie. Donnie had the Browns, and I
was like, no, I.

Speaker 4 (59:48):
Mean for the first first one and a half quarters,
it looked like a pretty darn good pick on the
Browns quarters.

Speaker 2 (59:56):
MO. The only the only thing that stop this from
being my number one pick is that we have seen
Drake May have success against pressure, right this guy. You
said it last week or a couple weeks ago. MO,
you were talking about how Drake May last year basically

(01:00:16):
set him up where he saw so much pressure last
year and had to work through it that it just
doesn't face him. Right. He keeps his eyes downfield, he
works really well in the pocket and he's always hunting
for explosives. So the issue is is that everyone thinks
Drake makes the MVP right now. I'm unsurprised that the

(01:00:37):
Falcons are going to be a very unpopular side because
the hype is at an all time high and Drake's
played great. But it's just really hard to know how
much of it is the quality of opponent and how
much of it is Drake may taking the step Like
I'm I've I knew that I hit the saturation point.

(01:01:00):
Donnie's been on the saturation point for a month now.
When I heard people talking about Josh McDaniels did the
offseason tour to learn about the things that he was
afraid that he didn't know, And as soon as I
heard that take, I was like, all right, this is enough.
I mean, I can't take it anymore. So, yeah, I'm

(01:01:21):
very glad that we have the Falcons.

Speaker 4 (01:01:24):
Every week there's a new take on this team. Last
week you had Sims talking about Rabel being Belichick and
Parcels having a baby together. Now you got this stuff
like it's just every week. Is it something new? Man?
It's unbelievable.

Speaker 2 (01:01:39):
All right, that's it. No consensus picks that didn't make
the card. No Survivor. I don't even want to give survivor.
Our guy shouts to our guy, John O'Brien. He pulled
him o. He left the Discord because he do had
falcons in Survivor. So he actually popped up during the
TNF game that I we have a bot set up.
We have a bot set up to welcome people when

(01:02:00):
they enter the discord, and it was like, welcome John O'Brien,
and we're like, wait a minute, he's I thought he
was already in here. So I can't even go into
that channel like people are talking about it. Sorry to
John Andres and the Pool Genius people. I haven't been
able to watch the video this week because it's just
like it is. I just John Andrews, did I Steven Stephen?

(01:02:23):
Why is a John Well? You know, I was thinking poker, poker?

Speaker 3 (01:02:31):
Can I just asked?

Speaker 1 (01:02:32):
Can I just ask?

Speaker 2 (01:02:33):
Though?

Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
And maybe this is a stupid exercise because it's just
it's so soon, but like, did we learn anything this
year that we can take it in next year? YEA
be happy with our process.

Speaker 3 (01:02:43):
If I don't quit, I want to tell you guys something.

Speaker 4 (01:02:46):
The Survivor with Survivor Survivor.

Speaker 2 (01:02:48):
Yeah, come on, most lose most.

Speaker 3 (01:02:51):
I mean, well, my take is just something that I
tried to warn you guys about last week. Well Rich anyway,
and it's maybe the same thing that I lost with
with this, even though the Rams win ninety five out
of one hundred times, I just think something that we
might want to keep in mind if there's a close

(01:03:12):
situation is basically the reason I didn't like Rich's pick
of the Falcons last week is just anytime the fade
is a team with a passing offense with a pulse inside,
I think there's just like a lot of variance in
those games because basically, if that team executes, because of

(01:03:33):
the way NFL rules work and just like how everything
favors the offense, if a team with a passing offense
with a pulse is playing inside and they execute, they're
probably gonna score thirty points. And that means you basically
need your team to score more than thirty, which, obviously,
when you're facing an awful defense like the Dolphins, is
more than possible. But we've already seen teams like two

(01:03:57):
mistakes and you're just like not gonna get to thirty.
That's basically what happened with the Rams Like, you make
a few mistakes, you're not getting the thirty. So it's
just like I just don't like fading passing offenses with
a pulse in indoor games.

Speaker 2 (01:04:10):
Basically I said, I said it. This is why I'm
so mad, because if you go back and listen to
last week, I said, the words the Falcons weren't a
part of my main process because Mike McDaniel can just
scheme it up indoors. Those are words that left my
lips and I didn't follow through, and that's that is okay.

Speaker 1 (01:04:32):
So what ultimately got you there on Saturday morning.

Speaker 2 (01:04:36):
Well, just I truly thought, and this is the stinger
of all of it, because it didn't. I truly thought
that the injury news was going to have a substantial
shift in ownership away from Atlanta and on to Cincinnati.
Like the Jets without Garrett Wilson and Sas Gardner with them,

(01:04:57):
they were clearly a bottom of three teams so far
this year. They were going to be without both of
those players. And when else, Maybe people are just holding
on to hope that Joe Burrow is going to return
at some point, When else are you going to be
able to take the Cincinnati Bengals minus six and a
half getting support from the market. So I thought with

(01:05:18):
the Kirk Cousins news, the Kirk Cousins news, and the
solidified information about Sauce, I thought there was going to
be a genuine shift in ownership from Atlanta to Cincinnati.
And I started to get spooked about taking two favorites
on the Thanksgiving slate because I had already taken the

(01:05:38):
Chiefs and this would be a second favorite on that
four game slate. But I think just my general process
for the holiday slates when we've been doing this is
to just be cognizant of it, but don't fully plan
for it. And I think if I just stuck to that,
because I, like, you had the Eagles read from from

(01:06:00):
the minute the games ended Week seven, I was in
the Discord Survivor channel saying that the Eagles were just
such an obvious spot for this week. They're going to
be low owned, and they were even lower owned than projected,
and they walked over the stupid Giants team. And I
just didn't listen to myself. That's why, that's why it's

(01:06:21):
so frustrating. I just didn't. I just didn't listen to myself. So,
but Moe a great point about offenses, passing offense, passing offense,
passing offense, especially indoors like these are certainly not the spots.
And a general point as well that we've talked about
in the Discord Channel discord bitt Lystot's discord. Most by

(01:06:45):
the way, get involved these weeks where there's mid ass
teams that are big favorites because they're playing quote unquote
bad opponents. Everybody gets this false sense of security because
they see that the market is having them lay a
bunch of points win. In reality, reality, they are still
a mid ass team, and the Faltains are very much
a mid ass team. And they were a mid ass

(01:07:06):
team with a backup quarterback and little did we know
a wr one that wasn't going to play.

Speaker 1 (01:07:13):
They got us twice, That midass team got us twice.

Speaker 4 (01:07:16):
Yeah, literally picked them the two times they didn't show
up to play football, I mean.

Speaker 2 (01:07:22):
And then it's like it's the game for Beijeon kicks
the ball out of his own hands, Like what is
going on? Man? So yeah, that's that. That's survivor. All right,
let's we have a one percent chance of winning something

(01:07:44):
in the quarter. Maybe Bred is so skeptical of this.

Speaker 1 (01:07:48):
Gotta be way less.

Speaker 4 (01:07:49):
We're gonna win the whole damn thing. We're going eighty
percent the whole way home. We're gonna collect a million.
I'm not gonna pay you assholes out. I'm going to Mexico.
Let's go, Baby.

Speaker 1 (01:08:00):
I just want a min cash. I just want to
cash in this thing one. We've been doing this for
so long. Mat like, just get us a min cashtree.

Speaker 4 (01:08:08):
I'm gonna remember that. I'm gonna remember that. Rich clipped
that when it's week eighteen and we're like twenty spots
out of a min cash and Brett's yelling about fucking
leverage season instead of just taking the points to get
us the min cash, He's like, no, no, we gotta
go full leverage, full leverage, full leverage. That is one
hundred percent gonna come happen. Yeah, Okay, I'll be happy

(01:08:28):
with a min cash. I'll put it that way. I'm
not playing for a mincash. I'll be happy with a
mid cash.

Speaker 2 (01:08:33):
Moe asked the team when we were discussing the quarter
prizes in the group chat, what's the m O this week?
What are we looking to do, And like Donnie just said,
I put in the Mike singletary rant. I want winners,
so we're looking for all, right. Follow these guys on
Twitter at Brett Colson, cobl s O N at Donnie

(01:08:55):
Underscorrepeters and at Monora and you double w r ah.
I'm at rich Tee Ryan. Let's get a sixth consecutive
winning with See you guys. Next to peace