Best Player Props and Award Bets for the 2025 NFL Season

The Collective return to give their favorite player props and awards bets for the 2025 NFL Season — including a massive 500:1 longshot from the Moose!

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Hello, old and welcome back to.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Great hir Jamble, the only podcast that puts its money
where its mouth is. I'm your host, Rich Ryan, and
I'm joined by two members of the Collective, the Disciple,
Brett Colson and the resident Mouse himself, Monuara. Donnie caught
up with something poker, but we have some player prop

(00:35):
clicks from him that I can share if he's unable
to join us. If you're watching this on YouTube, please
like the video, subscribe to the channel, and drop a
comment below. Give us maybe your favorite bet that we offer,
or if there's something we missed that you love, let
us know in the comment below. Listeners rate and review

(00:55):
on your podcatcher of choice. I gotta check my screen
for this one.

Speaker 3 (00:59):
Five stars only like Owen Popo linebacker Arizona Cardinals car
five star went to Auburn. Was a fifth round pick
in twenty twenty three by the Arizona Cardinals. And the
reason why I was combing through the Cardinals roster is
because once again, the collective is not just Brett. This time,

(01:22):
the collective just loves the twenty twenty five Arizona Cardinals
and Brett. We'll just kick it off right with you
you were bullsh on them to win the division. And
so this is a very correlated bet which is nearly
probably four x times the value of getting them to
win the division, and it is for Jonathan Gannon to

(01:44):
win Coach of the Year.

Speaker 4 (01:46):
Yeah, let's just win all the money with the Cardinals.
This one is definitely correlated with the division. Coach of
the Year is of course narrative driven, and voters love
the coach of the team that comes out of nowhere
to make the playoffs exceed expectations. And all I needed
was last week's response from Rich to Mike Cardinals bets
to say Arizona is not on anybody's radar this year,

(02:09):
even after an eight win season in which they made
a giant league. Last year too, they even led the
division midway through the season, but that's all forgotten and
the Cardinals are again a trash bag in the eyes
of both football fans. But I think Gannon gets them
this year, setting the stage for a Coach of the
Year run. He's totally remade this defense. He added a

(02:32):
bunch to help out that unit going into the season.
He brings a lot of creativity in his scheme that
I think is going to create problems for quarterbacks not
only in that division but around the league. And if
Arizona pushes past ten wins, they compete for that NFC
West and win that division and look like one of
the more complete teams in the league, which I think
they could. He checks all the boxes you need to

(02:54):
win this award, like turning a middling team into a contender,
doing it with a rebuilt defense that he can take
credit for, and mab unlocking a quarterback who, like Kyler,
has great moments, and we'll talk about him a little
later on the show, but he's also been uneven throughout
his career. So twenty to one. Jonathan Gannon is my favorite.

(03:14):
He's my favorite bet on the board. I love this
bet On Ganton.

Speaker 3 (03:18):
Narratives are so important when it comes to these awards.
I'll have a little bit on this later with an
MVP toout that I have, but mo YouTube did not talk.
But you too are clicking to think cannon Fluff two
thousand to win Coach of the Year, I.

Speaker 5 (03:36):
Need to ask your favorite bet on the Coach of
the yearboard or the entire board.

Speaker 6 (03:41):
Entire board. Okay, all right, that's exciting stuff. I'm all
in on the Cardinals.

Speaker 5 (03:46):
I mean, part of my reasoning is just basically what
you had said before, which is that the Cardinals have
a chance to surprise. And so if we think they
have a chance to surprise, which I wasn't like super
high on the Cardinals or anything, but I'm high enough
to think that they're drawing live. And if they're drawing live,
twenty to one seems kind of crazy. This is partially
a market play. It's fourteen to one elsewhere, but twenty

(04:08):
to one at Caesars that seems pretty good. I also
think the vulnerabilities we've seen in the other teams in
the division play into this a little bit. Matt Stafford
came back to practice, but who knows what that even means.

Speaker 6 (04:23):
And then you.

Speaker 5 (04:24):
Know San Francisco a lot of injury question marks there
as well, from the weapons on down to the fact
that the defense is pretty rebuilt.

Speaker 6 (04:35):
Who knows what's going to happen there.

Speaker 5 (04:37):
And also, don't we just have history of Jonathan Gannon
team's outperforming expectations so far. I mean, we're on year
three and I think he's two for two. I know
they won four games the first year, but everyone thought
they were going to roll over and be like a
one or two win team. It seemed like that year
like they were the consensus worst team in the NFL.

(04:58):
They won four games, competed in a lot more than that.
So I think he's shown a pretty consistent ability to
outperform expectations there.

Speaker 3 (05:07):
He also had the Nick Sirianni thing where one of
his introductory media pieces was just this do weep accountant
looking guy telling them to be e f and killers,
And it was like, who is this dude? So there
was just immediate negative market sentiment. But yeah, he's had
his team ready to play for two consecutive years now,
and man, this makes me so bullish on them early

(05:31):
season to see during September if some of the general
market sentiment that we've talked about is that more of
a malaise and if we can perhaps get some value
as we start some of our circuit capping to start
the season. Let's keep it in Arizona, Brett. We'll go
back to you you teased it. If the team is

(05:51):
going to win the division, potentially, if the coach is
going to be coach to the year, potentially, that means
the guy under center is going to play well.

Speaker 4 (06:00):
Well, look, this is a throw a few shekels on this.
I'm a firm believer that there are only like five
guys who can actually win this award. But if the
Cardinals are going to make a leap and win twelve games,
it will be because Kyler Murray finally puts together a
season at the level that he flashes in stretches that

(06:21):
we've seen, Like we know what the ceiling is like.

Speaker 1 (06:24):
He was great the.

Speaker 4 (06:25):
First ten games last year. There were six and four
they were right, and then he just completely fell apart.
But you know, he has his moments where he does
look like an MVP caliber quarterback. And I'm also fully
bought into year two of Marvin Harrison Junior. He's just
too good a football player. When you combine that, now
with a lot of consistency in who is in this

(06:48):
offense and who the offense is running under and Drew Petsing,
I just I like the continuity and the support that
Murray hasn't really enjoyed throughout his Career's a lot of
the same guys coming back, and I feel really good
about this offense. So look, MVP is a quarterback award.
Like I said, if Arizona wins twelve games, takes the
NFC West, and Murray plays like he did for the

(07:11):
first half of last year across the entire season. I
think he's in the conversation, Like we always have one
of those guys, whether it's a brock Perty or a
Dak Prescot who just kind of sneaks in, right, I
think I think this could be the year Kyler Murray
is in the conversation towards, you know, the end of
December for this award, and you know, maybe we see

(07:31):
a lot of those elite peaks that he's he's proven
capable of, and he's more consistent with those peaks throughout
the year.

Speaker 3 (07:38):
The mobility helps too, if you get some cheap rushing
both yards and touchdowns. I mean, that's really what makes
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson so incredibly valuable in the
MVP race is because these a lot of these metrics
that the nerds and the people voting on this lean
into EPA and QBR take into account rushing, so their

(08:02):
performances on the ground definitely give them a massive leg
up over your traditional pocket passers. One of the guys
Kyler Murray will be targeting is a massive touchdown regression candidate,
and Moe thinks he's just going to blow through that
ceiling and make up for last year and perhaps lead
the league in touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
It's a big price you're getting on trade. Mcrodmo. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (08:27):
I mean touchdowns are unpredictable and kind of random, So
I feel like that's the market where you want to
lean into the variants a little bit.

Speaker 6 (08:35):
I mean, what if I told you, What if I
told you.

Speaker 5 (08:38):
The guy who was fourth in receptions last year was
seventy five to one to lead in touchdowns. That seems
kind of crazy, right. I mean, not only was he
fourth in receptions, but it's not like he didn't have
a huge target share in the red zone guys. I
mean fourth in target rate in the red zone according

(09:02):
to Pro Football References Tracking, twelveth in total red zone targets.
He gets more than his share of chances, but kind
of an abnormally low catch rate. He's like in the thirties.
Everyone else, Uh there was like usually fifty percent plus.
So I feel like that's bounder gress. It's not like
he's got you know, Sam Howell throwing him these targets

(09:25):
like the guy should be able to make some plays.
You got brock Bowers, who like basically had similar production
to Trey McBride last year. Across the board, brock Bauers
sitting forty to one in this market.

Speaker 6 (09:41):
I mean, one of.

Speaker 5 (09:42):
These pro one of those prices has to be wrong, Like,
why would he be seventy five to one brock Bowers
is forty to one. It makes no sense. So I
feel like the value's got to be on the seventy
five to one shot here.

Speaker 3 (09:53):
I love that price. And the guy that I'm going
to offer up doesn't have as good a price, less
than half of the But how about the guy who
was third in targets last year overall, and I'm looking
at it now tied four fourth in red zone targets,
and it's Drake London plus three thousand on FanDuel to

(10:14):
lead the league in receiving touchdowns. What's really exciting about
Drake London is his trajectory just continues to climb. And
last year, last three games this season when they gave
Pennix the Reins, Pennix targeted this dude thirty nine times
in three games, capping it off with eighteen targets in

(10:35):
the last week of the season an absolute offensive explosion
for Drake London in that contest. As a team, they
have the fourth easiest schedule per Sharp Football, twelve games indoors,
and my last note from Drake London specifically is you
just you can't teach six to four like this. Dude

(10:56):
has an absolute beautiful frame for somebody to dominate in
the rens. A great body position like Drake Lenard's almost
automatic on like a five yard slant when you're when
you're in the red, he just can get in front
of his player, box them out and make the play.
And then if you look at the market, t Higgins

(11:17):
had fifty fewer targets last year plus twenty two hundred
Marvin Harrison, there is some post sleeper, post rookie year
hype for Marvin Harrison plus twenty five hundred, even with
some question marks there for Marv. So I just think
this is a great price on a great player on
a team that again we were bullshow last week ton

(11:37):
of indoor games and Michael Pennix is just the the
guy you want to be throwing somebody who you need
a ton of volume at because it feels like Pennix
is just going to fire it in there to his guy.

Speaker 4 (11:50):
What's Kyle Pitts's number?

Speaker 6 (11:51):
On that market?

Speaker 1 (11:54):
The memes are flying, The memes are flying.

Speaker 3 (11:57):
Every time I get one, I just send it to
Tomo DMS and they're just they're outrageously good. All right,
let's keep it in the NFC South. Let's keep it
at receiver in the NFC South, because it's Moe and
I who are aligned on the next one, and it's
on offensive. Rookie of the Year. Mo tell the people
why they should be looking at t MAAC plus sixteen

(12:20):
hundred to win O Roy.

Speaker 5 (12:22):
Yeah, this is one where you know, I'm just gonna
have to be honest. I don't know that much about
the player. I can't say that I watched very much
Arizona football last year or the year prior. But just
based on the scouting reports, all the everything I've seen,
and I'm looking at the rest of this Carolina roster,
He's sixteen to one to win Rookie of the Year.

(12:43):
Isn't he the clear cut favorite to lead this team
in receiving? I mean, you have Adam Thielen, who I
think was their top guy last year, is ancient and
is doing an admirable job of staving off father time,
but how much longer can that last? Aalen Coker kind
of came out of nowhere, but he's not even listed
as one of the starters right now. Xavier Legett, it

(13:07):
was a rough it was a rough season for Xavier Legett.

Speaker 6 (13:10):
Let's just let's just leave it there.

Speaker 5 (13:11):
So, uh yeah, there's no you know, tight end to
speak of really unless you're a big Jatavian Sanders believer.
H So, I feel like he's the clear favorite to
lead the team in receiving. And you know, there's been
a lot of Bryce Young discourse this offseason. There's some
haters out there. I was one of them when he

(13:34):
was coming out of the draft. Okay, not a Bryce
Young guy, never really have been. Maybe I'm just buying
into the narrative too much, but it was. I thought
he looked legitimately much much better down the stretch last year,
and I'm with all of the people that think that
was real. The schedule is relatively friendly. Uh the defense stinks,

(14:00):
so I think they should be in a lot of shootouts.
I just when I'm looking at their schedule, the only
defense that is on there that I'm really fearful of
is probably Seattle. So yeah, I think the way is
clear for Ted McMillan to put up some counting stats,
and at that point you're just basically rooting for the
top guys to kind of, you know, disappoint a little

(14:23):
bit for people who don't know. Gent and cam Ward
are sucking up a lot of oxygen in this market.
They are both in the ballpark of plus three hundred,
so very very clear favorites over the rest of the field.

Speaker 3 (14:36):
And we talked about this offline, you and Imo as
Donnie joins the program with it looks like what is
behind you? They look like, you know, the blow up
WWF dolls, That's what people behind you look like.

Speaker 7 (14:52):
They are giant pinatas Dan Eggs.

Speaker 3 (14:58):
That is themers that is the worst ten Eggs.

Speaker 1 (15:02):
I'm sorry to the artist.

Speaker 5 (15:04):
That Phil hellm Youth looks just like if you guys
have seen the South Park with the guy who plays.

Speaker 6 (15:09):
A World of Warcraft.

Speaker 5 (15:11):
And is like sitting back in his thing and just
shoveling pork rinds down his gullet or whatever while they're
chasing the sort of unspeakable destruction or whatever it is.
I can't remember the episode, but yeah, looks just like
I'm sorry, Phil hellm youth.

Speaker 6 (15:27):
But that's bad.

Speaker 3 (15:28):
Perfect timing, because we're gonna we're gonna get to your
first out in a second DP you're Bryce Young tal
Because MO and I are waxing poetic about rookie receiver
Teteroa McMillan, who, by the way, folks, he likes to
go by T mac. He does not like the nickname tet,
which I'm kind of wishy washy about. You don't really
get to pick your nickname. That's one of the things

(15:49):
that I've been told. But he prefers to go by
T mac. T Mac was an elite producer in college
two years where he had more than three receiving yards
per team pass attempts, which in my guy JJ's model,
is absolutely elite. Great players are usually in the high twos.
Anything three and above means you were an absolute demon

(16:13):
on the field. He had a ninety six out of
one hundred in JJ's model in terms of score, and
he was just a boring prospect. He was who he
was entering his final season, and that just didn't really
excite people. But all he did was go out and
produce in terms of statistical comps. The three biggest ones

(16:33):
in JJ's model to put a pin in that were
t Higgins, Courtland Sutton and Mike Williams. So this is
somebody with the frame and the ability to step in
and produce right away and mow your last point, I
think is the most salient. This is just one of
those markets with a lot of gravity being pulled in
a couple of directions with Gent and with cam Ward,

(16:54):
and I'm always going to look for outliers in those scenarios.
I can't tell you how much time I spent looking
at defensive Rookie of the Year today looking for somebody
to pivot off of a duel carter.

Speaker 1 (17:06):
But everybody I landed.

Speaker 3 (17:07):
On, I just I couldn't love them enough to put
in a real money wage or teut them. I really
wanted to as a quick sidetrack. I really wanted to
click Tyler Williams, but I just don't know. There's just
gonna be so much rotation in the middle for the
Lions that I just don't think he's going to get
the requisite number of snaps to make a big impact.
But I mean rushing next to some of those guys.

(17:30):
You know, ty Leek is so special that I think
he could have a huge impact. But it's just it's
there's nobody from a pass rush standpoint that I think
is going to hold a candle to abdul Carter like
I think this guy is just going to enter the lead.

Speaker 5 (17:46):
That's the problem with all the defensive awards in general.
It's just like we know who the guys are gonna
be that get all the sacks, and those are the
guys who get all the defensive awards. So I would say,
from my understanding is Tyley doesn't. I looked at him too,
but I just he doesn't fit the player archetype that
you need. I think he's more of a run stuffer,
is my understanding. So I don't think that's that's the

(18:09):
one you need. Counting stats.

Speaker 4 (18:11):
I almost came to this podcast with Abdul Carter, but
that was kind of boring.

Speaker 1 (18:15):
So I do wow.

Speaker 3 (18:16):
I mean, so listeners, if Brett's gonna come with a
plus whatever to eighty in a market like that, yeah,
but it's the Giants.

Speaker 1 (18:26):
Well, he's just giants filed us fully.

Speaker 7 (18:28):
Yeah, we're gonna buy We're gonna buy bread a giants
jerseys for Christmas. At this rate, there might day.

Speaker 4 (18:34):
Look, they're my second team.

Speaker 3 (18:35):
We've been waxing poet. I mean they're a New York team.
We've been waxing poetic about the Carolina Panthers.

Speaker 1 (18:44):
DP pylon.

Speaker 3 (18:45):
You like Bryce Young's over thirty two hundred passing yards this.

Speaker 7 (18:49):
Season, Yeah, also eighteen and a half passing touchdowns. Took
that as well. I mean, on a simple outlook, if
you just take a look at last year's second half
of the season, let's say the last eight games, he
averaged two hundred and thirteen yards per game, twelve TVs
three interceptions. I think that after all the benching and
that sort of stuff that happened, we saw the Bryce

(19:12):
Young that I think a lot of people anticipated we
would see much more of, at least earlier on in
his career. Now, maybe he's getting into that form a
little bit later than people would have expected being the
number one overall pick. But I think there are signs there.
You guys said you were said you were talking about
Ted McMillan. I mean, I listen, I'm gonna keep calling
him Ted. I don't care. You don't get to choose
your own nickname. As far as I'm concerned, I think

(19:34):
he's in that somewhat decent group of receivers, at least
enough so that like there's like volume there that I
think Bryce is gonna be able to spread the ball
around pretty well. There was some improvement last year with
the offensive line. They're bringing that offensive line back. Do
I think they're going to be world beaters up front? No?
Do I think they can be top ten to twelve
unit in the league. Sure, right, I think that all

(19:56):
things considered. You know, at the end of the day,
I don't think Bryce Young is allo it's going to
be like that number one overall pick everyone had hoped
he would be. Everyone hopes that you get out of
that sort of draft position. But can he be a good,
serviceable QB who gets a lot of yards in this league?
A lot of stats? Yeah, I don't think thirty two
hundred yards in a seventeen game season is that much

(20:18):
to ask from this guy with these weapons behind that
offensive line, all that sort of stuff. So yeah, I'm
high on the yardage. I'm high on the over of
the passing touchdowns, and I think Bryce Young can get
it there. And you know, even though I don't think
he's ultimately going to be that person that we talk
about where he's like, yeah, that's the number one overall pick.
That's what he's supposed to be. I think he's going
to be pretty solid and that's all we need here

(20:38):
to deliver the overs.

Speaker 1 (20:40):
An offensive line.

Speaker 3 (20:40):
By the way, PFF is bullish on ranking them eleventh
in the league entering the season. All right, everyone, take
a step back, folks, if you're out there listening, strap
in here comes. I can't wait a super galaxy brain
take from my on offensive. It's really not that crazy.

Speaker 5 (21:03):
Do we have a sounder for this one? Or can
I just go I don't know, but you had a
Galaxy brain sounder.

Speaker 7 (21:11):
You do need a Galaxy brain sounder.

Speaker 1 (21:14):
Okay, brain enough, that's I.

Speaker 6 (21:19):
Listen.

Speaker 5 (21:19):
I haven't touted very many five hundred to ones over
the years, but here's a five hundred to one that
I actually think has a tiny, tiny chance.

Speaker 6 (21:32):
Of coming home.

Speaker 5 (21:34):
Is it that crazy to think Josh Simmons could win Offensive.

Speaker 6 (21:40):
Rookie of the Year.

Speaker 5 (21:42):
It's crazy, But is it five hundred to one crazy?
Everything I've been hearing in camp aces he's doing great
against some very good pass rushers. What he needs is
basically another magical chief season, another fourteen plus win season. Yes,
the Chiefs have a tough schedule. Yes they probably aren't

(22:04):
going to go eleven to zero in one score games.
But if he just has like a four sacks allowed season,
the Chiefs are the number one seed. The narrative is
going to be they fix the offensive line. Everybody else
kind of disappoints at the top. This is one hundred
and fifty to one on fan duel, so five hundred

(22:25):
and one at Caesar's. Put a few bucks on it. Shekels,
Like Brett said, how crazy can it be?

Speaker 1 (22:32):
You know what he needs? Again? These are all narrative
driven awards.

Speaker 8 (22:37):
Well late, look at Mike, I gotta tell you look it. Yeah,
you get Simmons falling to the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid,
that's just crazy.

Speaker 1 (22:49):
That's what you need.

Speaker 3 (22:50):
You need Chris Coninder slaving on him on Sunday Night
football in front of the nation.

Speaker 1 (22:58):
You can get me.

Speaker 6 (22:59):
There no countings.

Speaker 3 (23:00):
The counting stats obviously are completely nonexistent, So you're operating
purely off of fumes and narrative. But I feel like
the outcome here is like the Chiefs literally have to
win like fifteen games, and Mahomes has to be the MVP,

(23:21):
which I feel like those prices combined are not You're
not getting to five hundred to one with any.

Speaker 5 (23:28):
Isn't There isn't there a one in five hundred chance
he's Trent Williams.

Speaker 6 (23:32):
Why can't he just be Trent Williams one in five
hundred times.

Speaker 4 (23:36):
I don't think Trent Williams, if he was eligible for
this award, would even be in contention. They're just never
going to give it to an offensive lineman.

Speaker 6 (23:43):
They're just not.

Speaker 7 (23:44):
You need him to be Trent Williams plus all these
other people to get hurt like that all needs to happen.

Speaker 3 (23:51):
A couple tackle eligible touchdowns tossed in there, that's what
you need.

Speaker 7 (23:56):
Yeah, can he catch?

Speaker 6 (23:57):
That's what you really need to be researching. Can catch one?

Speaker 5 (24:00):
Will script up a tackle eligible touchdown? For him to
capitalize on the narrative, it would be Andy Reid.

Speaker 3 (24:09):
I think if I remember during the draft process, I
could be way. I think I remember Josh Shimmon's playing
running back in high school, which I mean, isn't that crazy?
Some of these guys, you know, they don't get to
that like two seventy three hundred body type until they
go to college and they're just the most athletic dude
on their team. So it's not that crazy, but I
think I remember that. Let's keep it one more rookie.

(24:33):
This one is actually our first bearish take of the podcast,
and it's going to come from DP, who thinks perhaps
going both ways for Travis Hunter down in duve A
is going to be to his detriments and that he'll
go under seven hundred and fifty and a half receiving year.

Speaker 7 (24:53):
Yeah. So you mentioned the two wa thing, which I
think is probably going to get in the way somehow
in the production here. I don't think you and just
jump into the NFL and start playing two ways. And
I'm gonna be very simple with this. I watched this
guy run a couple of routes and I was the
most unimpressed person in the universe. I was like, how
is he gonna get away from NFL? DB's have fun, buddy,

(25:16):
you're gonna go under. I see no way that this
is gonna actually work out. I think we're gonna look
at this trade and be like, that was insane that
the Jaguars did that. That's how I think is gonna
result from this. Maybe I'll be wrong, maybe I'll have
egg on my face, but Hunter's not going to be
that good. I'm calling it right now.

Speaker 3 (25:33):
Arthur Browns the most fake sharp organization of all time,
because on the surface, this is an unbelievable trade, right,
but then they just go and they do the most
boneheaded things over and over again. And I know the
HASLMS had a very large influence on the Deshaun Watson thing,
but it's really hard to just give them a pass

(25:54):
for making that move and giving that guy that much
guaranteed money. And then of course they go ahead and
get Isaiah Bond after the Quinn Shawn Judkins thing, after
the Desjohn Watson things. So it's like, man, as soon
as you want to give the Browns the benefit of
the doubt, they do everything they can to try to

(26:15):
rip it from your hands. And on the service I liked,
I did like the Hunter trade. And yeah, seven fifteen
and a half is a lot, especially for an offense
that already has weapons, right, Like we all love BTJ.
Here they have two backs who can catch the ball
out of the backfield in ETN and the fellow rookie

(26:36):
Beshall Tutan. I mean, Parker Washington is a guy that's
going to be out there running meaningful routes and gaining targets.
So this is a pretty large number, especially if we
are to believe that he's going to be playing both
ways and playing a big chunk on defense. All Right,
the Brett and Moe mind meld continues, because this is

(27:00):
my favorite every year. Most interceptions by far my favorite
market because you're trying to thread the needle of who
is going to play all seventeen games but play poorly
enough or have enough variants that they can lead the
league in interceptions, and Mow and Brett both landed on
and Brett will start with you a quarterback who you

(27:22):
backed to win the division his rookie year at plus
four thousand CJ.

Speaker 1 (27:27):
Stroud.

Speaker 4 (27:28):
Yeah, you mentioned variants, but also volume, and the Texas
might not have a choice this year but to throw
every single down because I don't know how this team
moves the ball on the ground. Not only is this
a bottom three offensive line coming to the season, but
you've got Joe Mixon, who knows when he's going.

Speaker 6 (27:44):
To come in and play this year.

Speaker 4 (27:46):
Behind him is the corpse of Nick Chubb looking like
the lead back. I still don't know what a woody mark,
says Damian Pierce. Is that still a thing? Is Darre
gonna be the lead back and the special teams guy?
Are they going to bring in a Ryan Robinson? I
got where's the ground game coming.

Speaker 6 (28:02):
From in Houston?

Speaker 4 (28:04):
And we talk about running backs not mattering and next
man up? But Houston does not have a warm body
here that can carry the rock efficiently. So I see
this resulting in a volume increase in the passing game
from Stroud, who was bad last year, and I don't
see it getting a whole lot better behind a downgraded
offensive line. So when you pair the uptick in passing

(28:24):
volume with the downgrade in offense, I like CJ. Stroud
at forty to one to lead the league interceptions, which, yeah,
it's a big number and it's unlikely to happen, especially
with how good their defense is. They're not going to
need to throw the ball all over the field. But
he threw twelve picks last year. He just didn't He
didn't look like he did in his rookie season. I
think a lot of the ass to do with the
offensive line problems, and then, like I said, they they

(28:46):
did nothing to fill those leagues.

Speaker 3 (28:49):
Twelve picks last year four CJ. Stroud at a pretty
gaudy two point thirty percent interception rate. Mo pile On,
you got the same click.

Speaker 6 (28:59):
Yeah, I learned from you Rich.

Speaker 5 (29:02):
Find a guy that's gonna throw the ball a lot
and see if variance takes over. I mean, that's kind
of what interceptions are about. So I think, like Brett said,
he we should see a lot of pass tempts and
they should be a lot of pass attempts under pressure here.

Speaker 6 (29:15):
So that's basically the key to my analysis. And you know, he.

Speaker 5 (29:22):
Looked like a special interception of Voiter his rookie year.
Obviously I believe he led the league in ion T rate,
but you know, a lot of good fortune in that
multiple dropped interceptions that looks like it might have been
a fluke after he had a really normal I T
rate in year two and just just winds up four
back of the interception lead.

Speaker 6 (29:42):
So he's close to being there already last year.

Speaker 5 (29:46):
And like Brett said, I don't anticipate a very good
rushing attack from Houston. I don't think because of not
being able to have a good rushing attack, and because
I don't really believe in this offense, even if the
defense is playing well, I don't think they're going to
be playing from way ahead a lot to the point
where they're just going to be like pounding the rock
or anything like that. So this number is closer to

(30:07):
twenty five to one at the other sites. So I
think forty to one is definitely too high on Stroud.

Speaker 3 (30:14):
So if you want to talk about excellent interception rates,
I have to mention the guy that I'm touting here.
I'm getting greedy, So I like Justin Herbert at one
hundred to one to lead the league in interceptions. The
guy was incredible last year when it came to protecting
the football. A point six percent interception rate insanity considering

(30:41):
he threw the ball five hundred and four times, thirteenth
in the league in attempts, but his career rate is
around that normal amount one point five percent interception rate.
And the last time we saw this dude, he threw
four interceptions in one game.

Speaker 1 (30:56):
So it is.

Speaker 3 (30:57):
Possible for Justin Herbert to turn the ball over. I
heard a lot of echoes from last week, and this
is why it tempted me to make this selection about
the Chargers defense taking a step back, and then of
course you guys talk about pressure the Rashawn Slater injury,
which is going to make Joelle kick over and leave
a bit of a hole at right tackle. Chargers surprisingly

(31:19):
were eleventh in the league twelfth or eleventh in pass
rate over expected as well last year, so they weren't
as super crammy as people expected that status from NFL ELO. So,
like you guys said, this is a play about volume
and a play about variants. So if that pass rate
takes up a little bit, and Herbert gets closer to

(31:40):
like that five point fifty attempt mark, if they're playing
in more negative scripts and not salting the game away
as they had opportunities to do last year, I think
there's paths to getting to this one hundred to one.
It is definitely a punt. It's a big number, and
Herbert could just have that ability to be less turnover

(32:02):
prone than others, especially with Harbaugh coaching him. Right, this
is actually a trait that he might have. So I'm
not out here saying that this is an absolute slam dug,
but like the most I really liked the CJ. Shroud
taut I was also interesed in bo Nicks bo Nix's
plus thirty five hundred. He was actually tied for third

(32:22):
in interceptions last year, had plenty of attempts five hundred
and sixty seven attempts in a Sean Payton offense that
likes to use the short pass as an extension of
the run game. So the volume is going to be there,
and bo Nix is not going to get benched in
in Denver, so you're gonna thread that needle there.

Speaker 1 (32:40):
I just thirty five to one.

Speaker 3 (32:42):
I'd just rather just go absolute punt and try to
get thee hundred to one on Justin Herbert. So that's
ultimately why I landed there.

Speaker 1 (32:50):
DP.

Speaker 3 (32:50):
Let's get you back involved your bearish again, and just
like last week, you were bearish on the team the
Pittsburgh Steelers and yins is bear on their quarterback as well,
Aaron Rodgers under thirty two hundred passing yards.

Speaker 7 (33:05):
Yeah, I mean, this guy's not gonna make it through
the season like like so, so what is the lock
in the under while you can't? I mean, come on,
how old is he now? Forty two? Doesn't want to
take hits like. It's just there's no way Aaron Rodgers
hits the over on his passing yards. In my opinion,
there's just no way. I don't think he wants to
like hang in a pocket and actually throw a ball.

(33:28):
And then I'm I'm gonna also tag team that with
DK Metcalf, because if Aaron Rodgers can't get anyone in
the ball, he's certainly not gonna get Dk Metcalf the ball. Like,
to me, DK Metcalf is not a guy who like
gets open super super fast and catches like a four
yard pass like he's like kind of a bigger guy,
wants to go a little bit downfield, play outside the numbers.
I don't think that that's what Aaron Rodgers is gonna

(33:48):
really be looking to do right now. So I think
pairing these two things together. So I got under thirty
two one hundred and point five passing yards for Rodgers.
I got under nine to fifty point five receiving yards.
I mean the Rogers for sure. I just don't part
of it is I don't think he's gonna make it
through the season. I mean, one hit from this guy
and he could be out. I'm sorry to want to
root for injury. I'm not rooting for injury. I just

(34:08):
don't think somebody can make it. I really do think,
you know, shout out Bill Simmons were always saying this,
but I do believe it. Brady skewed the thought as
it comes to this, and Lebron too, like people do
not play this late into their career. Lebron is a unicorn.
Brady is a unicorn. And even Brady rich us to
conin it all the time that I never took a sack.
He just fell down like Rogers is not going to

(34:31):
take hits, Like there's no way.

Speaker 3 (34:34):
Two suspectacles in Pittsburgh as well as the entire league
has realized that you kind of we've seen guys, I mean,
Mahomes plays preseason every year, but we're starting to see
Burrow played this week again. We're starting to see more
guys get in preseason because you almost need to callous
the body a little bit. That's becoming in vogue because

(34:56):
there's so such limited hitting time in practice now that
it's actually becoming more prudent to play. Some guys in
preseason get bumped out there so that Week one, it
is not just like Holy hell, what's going on here,
and Aaron Rodgers is just part of the old school.
That dude is not coming to step onto the field
into the preseason. It could be to his detriment.

Speaker 1 (35:16):
Especially.

Speaker 3 (35:17):
Yeah, I said it last week. I'll say it again.
I don't get the pairing with DK metcalf as somebody
who watched Rogers play last year. He is just so
averse to that type of throw where it's just back shoulder,
let the guy go get it, unless your name is
like DeVante Adams and he has a mind meld with you.

(35:37):
I just don't see him off of one training camp
trusting somebody on those types of throws. So I can
certainly understand looking for the under on both of them,
and they are directly correlated. A former Pittsburgh Steeler continuing
the g main train, he can't get enough of Big Blue.
This one is an alternate line. Brett's all in likes

(36:01):
Russell Wilson's alternate passing yards over.

Speaker 4 (36:06):
Yeah, this one's hard to find. It's a milestone market
on DraftKings. But yeah, this is as much a bet
on the Giants' success as it is on Russell Wilson.
But I don't believe Brian day Ball and Joe Shane
want Jackson dark to play this season. This is a
coach and a GM in need of a winning season,
possibly for their jobs, and they brought in two veteran
quarterbacks to help them get there. And they've got Jackson

(36:29):
Dart waiting in the wings. Ross is the starter. He
is durable, He's great at protecting himself from serious injury.
When you combine that with Dayball and his scheme that
emphasizes quick reads and rhythm passing, I think it gives
Russ a good chance to stay upright for a full season.
And when you combine that with a defense that could

(36:49):
move mountains up front this season. I love this defensive
line sets up for I think what's going to be
a full season of Russ and for a guy who's
thrown for four thousand yards several times in his career,
I like getting ten to one for him to do
it again this year. I think he's gonna play all
seventeen games. If you don't think Russ has a long
leash like I do, this is not a bet for you.

(37:09):
But I trust day Ball and for this team to
win seven plus games and remain in playoff contention into December,
and that's really what this bet is.

Speaker 3 (37:18):
Jackson Dark officially a bearish player on this podcast, especially
with mon Noir.

Speaker 6 (37:25):
He likes Star Wars. See I set it up for it.
It's perfect.

Speaker 1 (37:33):
Apparently the reason why he goes.

Speaker 3 (37:36):
One side face paint it is an ode to Anakin Skywalker.

Speaker 7 (37:42):
Mo.

Speaker 1 (37:43):
We all know it ends well for Anakin.

Speaker 5 (37:46):
Skywalker Giants fans better pray this guy never sees the
field because you're not gonna like what happens next. Chris
Conley nodding somewhere he knows.

Speaker 1 (37:58):
By the way, shout Sekritsky.

Speaker 3 (38:00):
If you're watching this on YouTube, when you finish the video,
just put it in the search bar. Chris Conley Star
Wars video This dude for his Georgia. I don't know
if it's a senior project, but he did like this
Star Wars movie. And this was when it was like
hard to edit this stuff, right. Chris Conley's old like us,
Like this is like the early two thousand, So shouts
to Chris Conley did a great job at ugi with

(38:23):
this with his Star Wars video project. A former Giant,
a former Jet, a former Charger, a former Seahawk now
a raider Mo once again, second week in a row,
bullish on my guy Eugene Cyril Smith the third the second,

(38:45):
and likes his over on touchdowns this season.

Speaker 5 (38:49):
Yeah, I'm trying to stay away from overs this year
after Josh Allen burned my.

Speaker 6 (38:57):
Ass last year.

Speaker 5 (38:58):
If you could, if you would have told me he
was winning the MVP, man, it would have been scary
how much I would have got down on that over
thirty seven hundred and fifty yards. But I'm willing to
go back to the well. For Gino Smith over twenty
and a half touchdowns is plus one hundred. Like Brett,

(39:21):
I looked at the Milestone markets for some alts here
as well, and I found over twenty four and a
half at plus three seventy for Gino. I don't know
if people realize I had heard of this a few times,
so I looked it up to see what exactly I
could find on his splits. Gino has some insane indoor

(39:44):
outdoor splits. You guys, this is really like Okay outdoors,
He's got like, I think, seventy four touchdowns sixty six
picks okay and indoors he has thirty one touchdowns in
sixteen career games between I don't know it splits it

(40:05):
between dome and retractable roof, but I just added those together.
Thirty one touchdowns sixteen games. Moving from Seattle to Vegas
is gonna be massive here. You also have multiple indoor
games on the road Indie Chargers Houston. I know, obviously

(40:26):
not like the easiest defenses there, but still, you know,
Gino has hit this number very consistently, twenty plus in
each of the last three years. I'm already on the
record Bullish Raiders, and it's mostly because of the offense.
I think their defense is probably still gonna land in
the back half of the league. Similar to what we

(40:46):
talked about with Bryce. Could see some shootouts here, Chip Kelly,
I think is an OC we can hopefully believe in here. Yeah,
it should be in absolutely no danger of getting benched
here because they they just paid him, They just you know,
spent resources to bring him in. Have to assume he's
going to play out no matter what the record is

(41:07):
looking like this year. So I don't understand this number
at all, to be honest. So this is probably my
favorite of the number props, like non you know, long
shot futures. I think this line is kind of crazy.

Speaker 1 (41:24):
Okay.

Speaker 3 (41:25):
I teased this earlier awards being about narratives, and with
Josh Allen winning MVP last year, the AFC triumvirt of
quarterbacks mahomes lamar Josh Allen. They got their MVPs. They
got him out of the way. What if I told

(41:46):
you there is a quarterback of a team that won
fifteen fourteen games last year who is priced at plus
one thousand to lead the league in passing yards, plus
twelve hundred to lead the league in passing touchdowns, and
the narrative entering into the season for this team will

(42:07):
be that without their genius coordinator on offense, this team
is going to spiral. But what if Dan Campbell and
the Detroit Lions keep it together, win the NFC North,
win the number one seed again in a conference that
I think we're all generally pretty bearish on. So why

(42:29):
can't in this scenario Jared Goff win MVP at plus
thirty five hundreds. Why can't this happen? Will they just
go to the boring routesball? Well, here's the thing is,
he was third in second and passing yards last year
and fourth and touchdowns, Like he puts up the stats

(42:49):
if the offense keeps humming the downside. And this is
something I alluded to with Lamar and Josh Allen, is
that he is a pocket passer. Right there could be
negative variants in the touch down direction, and DeMont and
Jamiir Gibbs could be the ones converting all the red
zone looks into touchdowns and all of a sudden that
touchdown number comes tumbling down, and Jared Goff is not
going to scamper four. You know, a handful of touchdowns

(43:13):
in the season to help bolster those numbers, bolsters EPA
and his QBR. But in a market where Baker Mayfield
is plus twenty five hundred and Caleb Williams is plus
thirty seven hundred, you can't These numbers are crazy, mo, Like,
you can't tell me that golf plus thirty five hundred
is insane?

Speaker 6 (43:33):
Can you?

Speaker 1 (43:33):
Is it insane?

Speaker 5 (43:34):
Mo? I?

Speaker 6 (43:35):
Can? I can? This is?

Speaker 5 (43:38):
I mean, yeah, it's crazy that you say that about
Caleb too. I remember thinking last year when I looked
at the numbers for Caleb and the Bears, I thought
those were the worst numbers on the board. Last year,
I thought, if you were betting anything bull Bears. You
needed to call your local sportsbook and ban yourself because

(44:02):
you're Nothing good is gonna happen. That's all I'm saying.
And this is even We're twenty five to one for Caleb.

Speaker 3 (44:09):
Can we just no, no, no, that was Baker. That was Baker.
That was Baker. That was Baker. Caleb's thirty seven to
one Baker Baker.

Speaker 6 (44:16):
Was That's still ridiculous.

Speaker 5 (44:17):
Baker.

Speaker 3 (44:17):
Twenty five to ones is crazy like that is that
is I please someone allow me to short that number.
So you guys think it's just gonna be boring again,
it's gonna be mahomes Alan Lamar. Do you think the
motors just gonna roll the ball out like they didn't
give Lebron twelve MVPs? You know they like mixing it up.

(44:40):
They love a story. We just need a story we need.
We need sixteen and one in Detroit. That's what we need.

Speaker 6 (44:50):
That might do it if they do it with that schedule. Yes,
he's alive, all right.

Speaker 3 (44:56):
One more quarterback prop and it comes from Mo and
it's a I love this one.

Speaker 1 (45:01):
This is great.

Speaker 3 (45:02):
This This screams a coach who is going to tell
his guy to not be an idiot not run around
like a chicken with his head cut off, which means
we like the quarterback of the New England Patriots. Drake
May under five hundred and a half rushing yards. Guys,
Josh Allen's rushing prop is five hundred and a half.

(45:25):
Somebody explained to me why Drake May is at five
hundred and a half.

Speaker 6 (45:29):
I can't do it.

Speaker 5 (45:30):
I looked at this and the only I think, the
only case I could possibly make for it is people
are just looking at last year, which was I think
he ran for four hundred and twenty one yards or
was right around there. They're just looking at that twelve
games multiply these extra games he's in. Okay, No, all right,

(45:51):
And this is coming from somebody who on record with
Rich I do not like this New England offensive line.
I still think Drake May is going to be in
a lot of trouble this year.

Speaker 6 (46:02):
I don't care.

Speaker 5 (46:03):
Man. These are the guys who ran for five hundred
yards last year while taking snaps Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels,
Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen.

Speaker 6 (46:15):
Kyler Murray.

Speaker 5 (46:16):
That's it, Okay, does Drake May fit into that group?

Speaker 6 (46:20):
I ask you guys.

Speaker 5 (46:21):
This does Drake May fit into that group? I don't
think so. Okay, let me tell you guys priced near
him Josh Allen Jalen Hurts. Those guys had four hundred
designed rushing yards between them according to PFFS tracking.

Speaker 6 (46:41):
Guess how many Drake May had.

Speaker 1 (46:45):
Twelve?

Speaker 6 (46:46):
Good guess fourteen fourteen yards.

Speaker 5 (46:50):
They're not gonna go for fourteen to just five hundred
plus rushing. These guys who have these numbers are running
for these yards as part of the offense. I mean,
five hundred yards is insane. If Drake May runs for
five hundred, then I'm just gonna pay the sportsbook.

Speaker 4 (47:06):
I don't care if you think the offensive line's gonna
suck again. He's just gonna run for his life again.
I mean, that's where all those yards came from last year, right.

Speaker 5 (47:13):
Yeah, I mean I don't think it's gonna be good,
but last year was catastrophically bad. They just have to
be like a bit better. And he's probably gonna land
at like four hundred or something three point fifty. I mean,
five hundred plus is a ton.

Speaker 3 (47:27):
Isn't there some CCE downside too? If Drake May is
running for a life like a guy who was can
cost last year.

Speaker 1 (47:36):
Yeah, this seems like.

Speaker 3 (47:38):
Like a ton and again, like I said with Vrabel,
just seems like the type of guy that is just Drake.
Get down, Drake, throw the ball away, Drake, don't do
something stupid, like he's gonna try his damnedest to coach
the reckless out of Drake May which could mean kind
of coach out some of the scrambling from him. And

(47:59):
if he's not getting yards on the ground, well maybe
the rookie running back from the Ohio State University might.
And Donnie likes over that is quietly Pats pilled again
over seven hundred and a half rushing yards for Trevion Anderson.

Speaker 7 (48:18):
Yeah, I'm drinking the kool aid. He's gonna get this
in six games. I mean what I mean, what is
this seven hundred yards? I tried so hard to find
a line that was like rushing and receiving yards because
I think this guy's just gonna blow doors. I think
he's gonna get the majority of the snaps. He looks
fast as all hell.

Speaker 1 (48:36):
He looks different. I'll give you that.

Speaker 3 (48:38):
He looks different, right, and he gets the ball and
gets to the second level he looks like a different cat.

Speaker 5 (48:45):
He really.

Speaker 7 (48:45):
I mean, I'm at the stage where like to your point,
rich drinking getting the Pats pill again, put this guy
in bubble wrap to the season. He better not touch
the ball for the rest of the preseason. The hell
with it. I've seen enough. He's good to go. But
I want to try and find the line that's a
com nation, you know, like we used to look at
the old Alvin Kamarallianes like something like that, because I
think he's gonna get a lot of the dump offs.
He can take those to the house, you know, if

(49:07):
things start to break down, maybe he kind of scoots
out there. Drake made his dumps in the ball, boom
to the house for sixty let's go. But yeah, seven
hundred point five. Come on, they're gonna run the ball
a lot.

Speaker 6 (49:16):
Dump it off, Drake, don't run it.

Speaker 7 (49:20):
That line is insane. He's Drake May is not going
to be running the ball all over the field like
a lunatic.

Speaker 3 (49:25):
Come on, speaking of dump offs, Speaking of the AFC,
East Mo did find a receiving market for a member
of the greatest football team, the greatest team. My guy
JJ made the point for Devon Ah Chan this year
in fantasy. If the Dolphins offense improves, that means their

(49:46):
running game is going to improve, and Devon Ah Chan
is gonna have opportunities to run the football. If the
Miami Dolphins offense still offensive line still stinks and they
can't protect, Devon Ah Chan is gonna do just fine
because he's gonna get a trillion dollar bops in this offense.

Speaker 6 (50:02):
Dude.

Speaker 5 (50:03):
I was just like, I knew I was gonna fire
this over. I knew I was gonna like this number
because because of one thing. And you guys know what
it is. It's a guy we talked about last year
that I couldn't believe we were capping for, and it's
John new Smith. With John new Smith gone, who is

(50:25):
gonna catch these dump offs in Miami? It's that they
had basically a two tiered.

Speaker 6 (50:30):
Passing game last year.

Speaker 5 (50:32):
It was either throwing deep to Tyreek Hill and Jalen
Wattle are throwing short to John new Smith and Devon
Ah Chan. It was like those guys all got like
eighty plus targets and nobody else got more than like
thirty five.

Speaker 6 (50:46):
So one of those guys is gone. Okay, so a
Chan is.

Speaker 5 (50:51):
Gonna get so many screens and dumpoffs four point fifty.
He's gonna blow past this number unless he gets hurt.

Speaker 3 (50:59):
I can't find number because we're in the middle of
the show. And I edited a clip for JJ when
he was talking about jevon a Chan and he noted
the importance of john News Smith's departure. I think in
they were both top ten in design pass plays meaning
one read screen or quick smokes to both players. They

(51:22):
were both in the top ten. Now, all of a sudden,
you take one of the players away. Jonah Smith is
completely gone, so a lot of those quick schemed touches
will likely maybe continue to go to jevon a Chan,
so we can at least expect him to maintain what
he looked at last year, but there could be an
additional amount based on the absence of the other player

(51:43):
in the offense that they like to get the ball
to quickly.

Speaker 1 (51:45):
So yeah, a chance of the moon.

Speaker 4 (51:48):
Are you saying that Darren Waller is not the goal.

Speaker 6 (51:53):
I'd be surprised if Darren Waller is the answer.

Speaker 3 (51:55):
Guys, man, I really do think McDonald Mike McDaniel's gonna
be out of a job by Halloween. Like, I think
this Dolphins team is going to be horrendous, and I
wanted to I was also interested in to his interception stats,
because what does that offense look like when it isn't

(52:16):
Mike McDaniel calling the plays and to it just goes
back to being a pumpkin as a player. But if
you want to talk about injury concern, nobody, nobody takes
the cake like to a tongue of I low. Let's
put a bow on running backs and keep it with you. Mo,
keep it positive. Back to the positivity up to the
Pacific Northwest, a man who will be running the gap scheme,

(52:43):
the old Shanahan style, and it might be perfect for
a one cut runner like Kenny Walker.

Speaker 6 (52:50):
The third did I keep it positive?

Speaker 3 (52:54):
Oh, it's under it's a you know, it's a you. No,
it's my That's just that's just me. That's producing. I
kind of like Kenny Walker. So I'm interested to hear
the bear case.

Speaker 5 (53:06):
Well, I mean the bear cases are we sure he's
the best running back on his team. I mean, Zach
Sharbonay had a higher success rate than Kenneth.

Speaker 6 (53:17):
Walker each of the last two years.

Speaker 5 (53:19):
And I think this is going to be a very
bad offensive line, So I don't really see the case
for Walker.

Speaker 6 (53:28):
Going, you know, having a big year.

Speaker 5 (53:31):
I mean, this offensive line was twenty eighth in run
block win rate last year. I think that's legitimate and
reflective of their talent level. He's already nursing a foot injury. Guys,
I don't know they're saying it's they're just being careful,
but you know how foot injuries can linger, and one

(53:52):
thing goes wrong, all of a sudden, the guy's out
for a month. He has not been the healthiest player
in general in his entire career, so I think this
is probably gonna be close to a fifty bitty split.
They drafted this guy, Damien Martinez. He was playing well
the other day. Could see him sneaking in there for

(54:12):
for Damien Martinez.

Speaker 1 (54:15):
I liked him Martinez.

Speaker 5 (54:17):
I thought he was looking good the other day, and
they apparently like him. So I'm just I don't know, man,
This is like a belcow type of number eight seventy five.
This is give me the under for sure, on a
bad team that I think is not gonna have a
good offense.

Speaker 3 (54:32):
I'm kobiak pilled. I can't lie. I cannot shake the
first two weeks of last season. I can't, I can't
do it. I saw something happened those two weeks for
that Saint's offense. I didn't imagine it, right, Like they
were absolute.

Speaker 1 (54:48):
Gangbusterard for two weeks. Right, something's in there.

Speaker 6 (54:52):
Yeah, but what if it sacks Charbona?

Speaker 3 (54:55):
It could be it could be something Sharbonne all right, Okay,
back to positivity. I'm sure this time I'm looking at it.
Mo's got two left there, both unders, but Donnie's got
an over.

Speaker 1 (55:06):
And I don't know.

Speaker 3 (55:10):
The hype train is out of control for this player.
But I'm kind of with Donnie on this one. When
in doubt. If you need someone to catch basses, draft
somebody from the Ohio State University because a Meccaga Eggbuka.

(55:32):
All this dude does is catch football's Chris Godwin second surgery,
Mike Evans getting up there, Jalen mcmill's dead, now, rip
my guy. That looked horrendous. So egg Buka over six
hundred and fifty receiving yards, why not.

Speaker 7 (55:50):
Dep Yeah, I mean, listen, you said it. The Ohio
State University just I mean turns these guys out left, right,
and center. I mean they all seem to be pretty
damn good. Agree with everything you say. I will add that.
I mean, Baker Mayfield looks halfway decent at this point
in his career. You know, he can move the ball around,
he can move around in the pocket, keep the play active,

(56:12):
get the ball downfield. Listen. I love Chris Godwin. I
think we all love Chris Godwin. Here, I don't know
what the hell do expect from Chris Godwin. I mean,
and even if he's like obviously good to go health wise, like,
do they kind of just shift up his role. He
just doesn't have the same bursts that he once had,
can't separate as much.

Speaker 6 (56:29):
I don't know.

Speaker 7 (56:30):
Maybe this is too much drinking of the kool aid
and buying into the hype because all you hear about
Agbuka is he's just freaking incredible. So I mean, maybe
that gives me a little bit of, you know, cause
of concern to want to pull back. But I don't know.
I can't do it.

Speaker 3 (56:44):
I'm in I can't hate it, especially if Godwin comes
back slow is reinjured. I'm not even concerned about the
slot thing. I think Eggbuka can play inside out and
all over the formation, so I'm not worried about this.
Oh and yeah, the Bucks offense, it's crazy. Two years

(57:05):
in a row. Canala's gone? Cohen gone?

Speaker 5 (57:07):
Like?

Speaker 1 (57:08):
Can they keep it going?

Speaker 3 (57:10):
The Bucks are one of the most fascinating teams for
me to watch at the beginning of the season, because again,
the market is treating them like they're gonna roll out
and be the best team in the NFC South and
be deserved favorites at home against bad teams. And I'm
just interested to see it if Baker Mayfield for a
third year in a row, third different coordinator, can keep

(57:33):
the offense rolling. I mean, it certainly helps when you
keep getting like Bukah's and McMillan's and Mike Evans continues
to play great and Bucky Irvin comes online like it
definitely helps some of those things all click, All right,
let's keep it negative.

Speaker 1 (57:49):
I feel like you had this under last year.

Speaker 3 (57:51):
Speaking of Detroit Motor City, the Honolulu Blue somebody. I
feel like somebody had under Jamison Williams last year. I'll
pull up my sheet, But MO, you give you give
the bear case on JMO.

Speaker 6 (58:04):
Well, if they did, they lost, But I don't think.
I don't know maybe I did.

Speaker 5 (58:10):
Anyways, Yeah, big number for Jamison Williams this year, nine
hundred and a half. I don't know if I can
get behind it. And that's coming from somebody who was
drafting a lot of Jamison last year and very happy
with the insane year he put up. I mean, I

(58:30):
didn't write these stats down because I got tired of
taking so many notes over hours and hours of pouring
over these markets. I think Jamison Williams was second or
third in yards per target last year, guys, and he
he got to like just over one thousand at you know,

(58:50):
literally being like the most efficient receiver in the NFL.
So what in the world are the chances that repeats?
I mean, I know the guy has legitimate deep skills,
but you know, the Lions are not likely to be
score Shurth burning the NFL down again without their genius
offensive coordinators. So, you know, offensive line takes a step back,

(59:13):
the overall offense takes a step back. Tough schedule something
Isaac Teslaw is coming in and everybody is like excited.
The coaching staff is excited. They're like it sounds like
he might take some of the rep the touches and
the reps this year. I mean, I just feel like
there's going to be some regression and Jamison Williams might

(59:37):
bear the brunt of it. I mean, seventeen yards per
reception and like I said, top of the NFL in
yards per target. The efficiency seems inevitably going to take
a hit. So when the volume comes down as well,
which I think it kind of has to, unless Detroit,
like you said, Rich goes sixteen in one and they're
just the best offense in the league. Again, it does

(59:59):
not seem very likely. I just this number seems too
high to me.

Speaker 3 (01:00:05):
You got to just get someone to send Jamison some
some bonuses or something, some same game parlay action, get
them off the board. Nobody had Jamison unders, but I
was looking at the sheet from last year. Some really
incredible ones in there, including Moe's Zach Moss under seven
hundred and seventy five rushing yards seven hundred and seventy

(01:00:29):
five rushing.

Speaker 6 (01:00:30):
One of the all time worst lines.

Speaker 3 (01:00:34):
Oh my goodness. All right, one more negative and then
we're going to get out of here. I think a
podcast favorite. But this is a massive number for Nico Collins.
Eleven hundred twenty five and a half yards. You got
to stay healthy and you have to pretty much be
elite to clear this number.

Speaker 6 (01:00:55):
Yeah, I mean I know what the bowl case is.

Speaker 5 (01:00:57):
It's Nico had you know, one one thousand and six
yards last year in twelve games. So again, it's just
like people doing arithmetic like with the Drake May one
and they're just like, Okay, of course Nico can get
another one hundred and twenty five yards and play the
full season. Well, Number one, I don't know if he's
going to play the full season. Number two. This is

(01:01:19):
a lot of yards. This hurts me to say as
somebody who like Rich we are all big fans of Nico.
I think on this podcast, I love Nico man, but
I don't believe in this offense at all. And like
we were saying, if I think Houston, even if they're
a good team, is going to be Houston's trying to win.

Speaker 6 (01:01:41):
Rock fights this year, I think so.

Speaker 5 (01:01:44):
I don't foresee a lot of passing volume, and what
passing volume there is, I think is going to be
a lot more split up than it's been the last
few years. They sink serious draft capital into this wide
receiver corps, taking the two Iowa State guys, and then
they bring in Christian Kirk. I think there's actual competition

(01:02:06):
for touches. And this is me also assuming Tank Dell
is not going to be a thing, which who knows
what's gonna happen there, There's really no way to say,
but yeah, just I'm down on this offense. Dreadful offensive line,
a brutal schedule kind of. I mean, I know the
division is terrible, but they when you play the first

(01:02:26):
play schedule in the AFC, you are facing Baltimore, you
are facing Seattle.

Speaker 6 (01:02:32):
Both of those games are on the road.

Speaker 5 (01:02:34):
They got to play the Chiefs in Arrowhead, they got
to play Denver. This is a tough selection of defenses. Man,
So hats off if Nico goes over this number. Basically
I love the player. Not brings me no joy to
fire this under, but I think this number is too high.

Speaker 3 (01:02:51):
Yeah, bringing in Higgins and Noel. Of course, we don't
know what comes with Tank Dell, but it seems like
that target share pie is and cut a little thinner
for Nico Collins. And then yeah, if this offensive line
is as bad as predicted and the Texans defense is
as good as it looks on paper, with the coach

(01:03:13):
like Dmiko Rans, you would think they would want to
try to compress time and possession, keep these games a
little tighter, which could reduce volume in addition to reducing
the target share. There for Nico Collins player props. Next week,
we're going to do something a little different, something we
haven't tried before, but I think it's a good exercise.

(01:03:34):
One week before the season starts, we're going to look
at things that or we're going to discuss things we
are looking for in week one. Everyone has all these
preconceived notions. We've had all these predictions and thoughts this summer,
but let's try to narrow down things for these teams,

(01:03:54):
or for coaches or for players that can help us
make good decisions as the Circus Sports Million kicks off.
What we'll be looking for in week one. So that's
where we're gonna bring you next week. Make sure you
follow these guys on Twitter at Donnie Underscore, Peters at
Brett Colson COO Double L s O N and at

(01:04:16):
Monora and U doublew r H. I'm at rich t
Ryan again. If you're watching on YouTube, leave a comment below.
Give us your favorite player prop or one that you
like that we gave you, we'd love to hear it.
And until next week, enjoy the end of preseason, enjoy
the start of your fantasy drafts, and just before you

(01:04:36):
know it, week one will be here.

Speaker 1 (01:04:40):
Until next time, Peace,