February 7, 2025 • 48 mins
Everyone loves the Eagles, and everyone loves Dallas Goedert. The Collective agree with one of these sentiments.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:09):
And welcome back to Great Higher Cambell, the only podcast
to put this money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
rich Ron, and I'm joined by two members of the collective.
I almost screwed it up again, Ty thev beaters and
the resident moves himself Moan Nuwara. If you're watching this
(00:31):
on YouTube, please like the video and subscribe to the channel.
Listeners rate and reviewing your Podcatter of Choice five stars only.
I'm counting it like Will Shipley, who No, he was
not a five star athlete playing professional football, playing throwball.
It was a five star athlete in lacrosse, but he
(00:53):
was a six point zero four star in football. We
were looking at his photo on rivals from North Carolina
and just by the looks of it, if you're doing
some profiling, you would probably put put two stars next
to Will Chipley.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Mo.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
You gotta smile on over there. But before record you
were scowling a little bit. You were a little upset
because we are keeping you from a poker game over
the river. We're costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars
inequity in this.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Poker Shorthanded high sakes PLO my favorite game to play.
I'm missing five, ten, twenty five short handed, three or
four handed plo right now, So I don't know if
it's hundreds of thousands, but I think I can beat
that game for more than one hundred dollars an hour,
so probably something between three hundred and five hundred dollars.
(01:47):
You guys are worth at least.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
That to me, So now you know that warms warms
my heart. No, Brett, Brett's got some some family stuff
going on, so thoughts out to him. But let's roll
on to the super Bowl. We're the last people on Earth.
I guess there's people that are gonna have like Saturday
shows and stuff. We're the last humans on Earth that
are breaking down super Bowl fifty nine down in New Orleans.
We're so late that most of the people that went
(02:13):
for media week are just gone already. Probably the people
that don't stick around for the game, like they are
already on flights back to their homes instead of sticking
around and going to the actual contest on Sunday. And
I think for good reason I'm talking about why we're
so late is that I don't know. I don't think
(02:34):
any of us have a super duper, duper strong opinion
on this game. I think that most of the content
out there has kind of been beaten to death, and honestly,
this is the Super Bowl's kind of gotten to be
one of the most boring caps. I know I'm making
content I shouldn't be saying this, but like one of
the most boring caps of the year, because all these
(02:55):
lines are razor sharp, especially by the time we get
to them. MO and I did a show on the
Bad Lens Network, My Guys with the Jets Jets Jet Chets,
where we gave us some takes last week which Mo
killed it. A lot of the markets moved in his favor.
I had one that moved in my favor. But these
things have just they've really settled, so there's not a
(03:17):
ton of value to be had. But it is a
Super Bowl, so obviously folks will be wagering on it,
having some fun and hopefully we can provide you with
some winners. But let's check in with Mo Burst on
the game on your Chiefs. I think all of us
have a pretty standard philosophy of entering into props. We
(03:39):
want to forecast what the range of outcomes is in
the contest and then go from there. You don't want
to have props that don't correlate with how you think
the game is going to run out. So we'll start
with you, Mo, as my kid allows from the background,
what's your take on this game? Are your Chiefs going
to do it? And how's it going to influence you
(03:59):
on Therofs?
Speaker 2 (04:01):
I think so. I think the Chiefs matchup pretty well
with the Eagles, just style of play wise. They like
to blitz a lot. The opposing quarterback is weak against
the blitz. They are a high success rate offense that
doesn't require a lot of big plays, which is kind
(04:24):
of how we saw the Rams have some success against
the Eagles. I think, I know that they do produce
more big plays down the field with their passing game,
but they moved the ball pretty consistently. Probably outplayed the
Eagles in that game, but everyone is erasing that from
their memory because the Eagles scored fifty five on the JV.
(04:48):
Washington team over there, that you know. I mean, I
love Jayden Daniels, he had a good game. It wasn't
his fault, but you know, shocker, a young team wasn't
ready for a big spot like that and pissed down
their own legs, which I'm not really going to blame
them for it. Like I said, it's pretty standard stuff
when you're I mean the Chiefs, which is the modern dynasty,
(05:12):
frittered away an entire half against the Patriots in twenty eighteen,
so you know, this is a pretty normal course of
course of action for these teams in these huge spots
for the first time. So not trying to slander Washington
at all. I think it's just completely understandable what happened.
But it also makes me I feel like people are
(05:32):
giving the Eagles too much credit for that game. This
has not been that strong of a playoff run for
the Eagles. I mean, first of all, that game could
have been a lot closer if a few plays had
flipped the other way, which they probably should have. Talking
about that fumble, Saquan Hold, Devonte Smith maybe being out
of bounce not at all things really didn't deserve to win.
(05:53):
They definitely did, but that game was probably not really
a thirty point game in reality, And and we know
that the Eagles obviously didn't look very good in the
two rounds before that, so I think they've been a
bit overrated and the Chiefs will probably win the game,
but yeah, I expect a lot of long drives and
(06:16):
could come down to some mistakes, kind of similar to
the Bills Chiefs game.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Yeah, you talk about the lack of explosiveness in Casey's offense.
We've had members of Oh I wanted to bring this
up the Discord. By the way, members of the Discord
our guy mac Clark shitting on Mahomes's a dot are
oars all year. First, I'm going to give love to
both the Discord and to mo. If you want to
join the Discord, you could just type in bit do
(06:42):
l y slash Discord moves, or check the description of
this show on whatever platform you can get in there.
The other day, I was changing kiddo and popped my
back like literally audible echoing off of the walls pop.
And it was my Jordan flu moment. I was on
(07:02):
my knees in excruciating pain, was able to finish the
diaper change. It was legendary stuff. But then I hopped
into Discord, went into the off topic channel and I
was like, guys, I'm dead. Somebody help. And Moe, who
has done this before and had pt before, hops on
FaceTime with your boy, shows me a couple of stretches
(07:22):
and I'm walking no less than fifteen minutes later, no
more than fifteen minutes later. So hop in the discord,
and thanks to Moe for getting me across the line.
Back to the point of the lack of explosiveness that
the Chiefs not being a problem though this is a
Vic Fangio offense that plays cover six quarters, rally and tackle.
(07:45):
The spots of this defense that can be attacked are
the ones that the Chiefs are not only good at,
but they've been doing so for the entire season. And
now you've got something burks in for Nacoby Dean, a
guy who they targeted last year year in the Super
Bowl with tons of success when there was an injury
to the Niners. And all of the strengths for this
(08:09):
Eagles team are on the boundary and on the defensive line.
We've seen what Mahomes does against pressure. We've seen what
Mahomes does over the middle of the field. The Chiefs
are going to figure this out. And then you've got
Jalen Hurts against Steve Spagnolo. Right, You've got questionable depth
at center for the Eagles against Chris Jones. So I
(08:31):
think people are really they're doing the roster best roster
argument for this, and I think they really are devaluing
the advantages that the Chiefs have at two of the
most important spots quarterback and head coach. But then also
the level of just preparedness and execution that Spagnolo is
(08:59):
going to have entry during this game against Shalen Hurts,
a player who I mean, we've seen it going back
to when he just started playing in this league. When
there's an ounce of resistance, when there's any type of
negative script, it's just not the environment with which he
thrives in. Do I think the Chiefs are going to
blow doors? No, that's just not their identity. Again, if
they're not going to have any explosiveness, it doesn't really
(09:20):
play into some kind of Chiefs route. But I think
this is for sure Chiefs in a low scoring game.
I do like the under I touted alternate under on
the bad Lands. I think forty and a half is
the lowest i'd go. I think you can get that
at plus two forty. Still, let's move ten cents since
I touted it on that show. Because the total is
sneaking down down to forty seven and a half, people
(09:41):
are looking at the Dome and these two teams and
these two offenses, and they're thinking points. But I just
think the style of play, the Eagles being dead last
and pass right over expectation. I think this is going
to be a slow, grinded out game that I don't
think people are going to love that much, to be honest.
So I'm a Chiefs lean as well, and Donnie echoing
at all, you're with us, You're leaning ac Yeah, I mean,
(10:07):
I think my big thing is about Jalen Hurts, and
I'm the most pro Jalen Hurts guy on this podcast.
I just I like his makeup. Now that said, you
look at him on the field and it's not always
that great. And am I supposed to believe because he
had one decent game last week against a defense that
(10:29):
I think many people as have felt was a bit
of a house of cards and could fall.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Apart almost at any time.
Speaker 4 (10:35):
Not that they entirely fell apart, but could get got
a little bit versus what Jalen Hurts has done for
the large majority of the season. And then when you
add in the fact that he's going against a tough defense,
a well coached, tough defense that can get after him.
I'm not gonna go against what I've seen as the
whole versus what I've seen in one game. Did Jalen
(10:56):
Hurts play good last time out against the Slurs?
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
He did, But I mean, is he going to play
good against the Chiefs? I mean, how am I supposed.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
To trust that that defense spags coming after you if
the Chiefs are up, he's traaling like I mean, it
just doesn't seem like that's going to be the case.
So that's why I'm ultimately leaning towards the Chiefs. Now, yes,
the Chiefs obviously have Mahomes, they have Reed. I get that,
you know. I think that it's like it's Mahomes and
(11:27):
Reid versus the Eagles as a team. That's kind of
like even. But then I give the nod to the
Chiefs because of the Chiefs defense I think is really
really good and they're going to get after Jalen Hurts.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Well. Donnie brings up an interesting point that I've thought about,
which is is it worth betting the Chiefs before the game,
Because I feel like if the Chiefs are up and
the price gets worse, it's okay because I don't think
the Eagles can come back against the Chiefs. But if
it's the other way around and the Chiefs are down,
I think the Chiefs are still alive to come back
(11:59):
against the Eagles. So I actually do wonder if you're
better off if you like the Chiefs just waiting to
bet live might be better no matter what happens.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
Yeah, I'm fine with that angle because, yeah, like you said,
we've seen it before, with the Texans obviously being the
most extreme example a few years ago and Donnie double
triple quadruple dipping with every single Houston score didn't matter.
The Chiefs were able to mountain and saying come back,
and then Yeah, on the other side, it's almost a
(12:28):
tail as old as time. Jalen hurts in a negative script,
especially against the Spagnolo defense, which is prepared for two
weeks for this spot, that could just be a nightmare
scenario for an Eagles team that is just it's just
not prepared to play pure drop back football against a
very good defense. I think that's a very fine angle
to take. The other angle that I think we all
(12:50):
agree on based on conversations Bo and I have had,
based on the props that Donnie has sent, and based
on everything I've seen over the past two weeks, is
we like the titands in this game because, as I
call out the linebackers for the Eagles, especially Burks, we
don't have a lot of coverage strengths on the Chiefs either,
(13:16):
Tranquil Bolton Chanelle. We saw it in the conference championship
with Mac Collins and Khalil Shakir getting targeted over the
middle of the field with a lot of success. So
the first one, everybody loves Dallas Goddard this week and
the act.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
I haven't seen one who isn't on Dallas Goddard over
this week.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Yeah, the action has certainly gone in his direction. So
I'll give you I think the spiciest way to attack
this and this is what I touted on Bad Lens
was on DK. They have in the game leaders market,
they have most rushing and receiving and obviously in that market,
Saquan has a ton of gravity because he goes both
(13:58):
ways and is able to I mean, he's the type
of player that could have two hundred toll yards and
it's not a shock whatsoever. He could damn near have
two hundred rushing yards, let alone before you factor in
the receiving yards. But in these markets, when there's a
ton of gravity at the top, that creates a bunch
of value at the bottom. We saw it in the
Rookie of the Year market with Kayleb Williams. You could
have gotten Jayden Daniels at as good as plus seven hundred.
(14:19):
We saw it in the rookie receiving market with MHJ.
I got Brian Thomas Junior at sixteen to one. Because
of that, and because there's so much gravity in this
market for Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goddard is plus two thousand
to lead the game in rushing and receiving. Obviously, if
you want to go to the risk averse route just receiving,
I'm still okay with the plus eight fifty, but I'm
(14:41):
going to go for the big swing. I'm going to
go for the home run and hope that he has
the most rushing in receiving yards in this game. But
if you want to go the plane Jane route, TP
has the over on forty nine and a half receiving
yards as well.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
Yeah, I mean, god, where'd you get that number? I
think it was on fando.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
I thought everyone was up to like fifty one, two.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
No, I mean it might be up. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
And I was already thinking a couple of days ago
that I was probably getting a bad number just because
I hadn't looked in a while.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
So I mean whatever.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
But I mean, part of this for me is that
Kelsey's numbers are so out of the out of this
world that I'm like, I can't even touch Travis Kelsey.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
I mean, it's just what are we doing here?
Speaker 4 (15:24):
I mean, so, I mean, Goddard's a good quality tight end.
Jalen Hurts gets him the ball, you know, whether it's
it's plays that are meant to go to him or
if he's kind of like that ballout option if nothing
else is open on the play, like he's a very
trustworthy receiving option four Hurts. I think they're gonna look
at him a lot. If I think that the Chiefs
(15:46):
on defense are gonna look to at first stop Saquon Well,
the ball's got to be coming out of Jalen Hurts
his hands.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
Where's that ball gonna go? I'm looking at Dallas.
Speaker 4 (15:56):
Godd and then forty nine and a half. I mean,
I I don't think you necessarily need a ton of
catches from him, because we've seen at times when Goddard
has been able to break one fairly long. You know,
whether that's twenty twenty five, thirty yards, whatever it is,
get a good chunk of that yardage there. And then
also going back to the game script, if we do
think that the Chiefs are going to be controlling this
(16:16):
game playing from the front and the Eagles are then
playing from behind, well I think they're going to have
to push the envelope a little bit more, which means
a little bit more throwing.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Speaking of Travis Kelcey, I know these numbers have deflated
a little bit. But speaking of the tight ends and Goddard,
one of the ways you were attacking this tight end market,
MO was some some matchups that you were looking at
the last time we.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Spoke, Yeah, I recommended a play on Goddard and DeVante Smith.
DK has had to head matchups with both against Travis Kelcey. Unfortunately,
someone slammed them and I think they came down each
like fifteen percent, so it's like a fair amount. I
don't know if they're worth playing any more. I think
(17:00):
they're at least worth looking at if you are bullish
Goddard and even like an ounce, Bearish Kelsey, same thing
for Demonte Smith. These were around I want to say
they were plus one fifty five and plus one forty five,
and I think they're down closer to like plus one
thirty now, so not as much value as there was,
(17:23):
but still might be worth playing if you're into that.
You know, it's a different way to go for that one,
like you were saying about the receiving slash rushing leader.
So yeah, I mean, I think those are at least
worth looking at. I feel a little bit sick when
I bet into the worst of the number like that,
(17:44):
but it might still be okay. I mean it's still
plus a fair amount, and I'm not like super confident
Travis Kelsey is going to have a big game either,
So I just think this is an eye test thing
for me. Where like last year, Yes, he looked rejuvenated,
much better against Buffalo, He's toasting people one on one,
he's catching touchdowns. That's not what's been happening in this postseason.
(18:07):
He had a couple of big plays against Houston, and
he looked as slow as he did the rest of
the year. In those plays. They just very poor tackling
by Houston. So I don't think Travis Kelcey is rejuvenated
at all, and I think he's probably ticketed for a
bit role here relative to what the market seems to think.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
Just a couple of numbers here on Goddard tied for
the team league in targets here in the playoffs, and
his yards per target is nine point six, So in
the same vein as Mose live opportunities perhaps on the
Chiefs in the game. I don't know if these markets
how aggressive they'll be with live props. I know that
there's some available, they're available in some spots. And the
(18:50):
way that Goddard can get his yards, especially against the
seam here, you know, beyond even the linebackers. The safety
position for Kansas City isn't that great in cover just
they could come in chunks. So even after like a
quiet first quarter, you might even be able to jump
into the Goddard market in a live proposition in the
(19:11):
same vein that that you're looking at with Kansas City
on the game there.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
The Chiefs also allowed the most hearts and the second
most catches to tight ends this year, if people want
to put some numbers behind that. So that's pretty it's
a pretty strong trend there.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
Yeah. Absolutely, And then to Donnie's point about being hot too,
we know Spags is going to blitz. The closer you
are to the ball at the at the snap, the
more likely you are to be hot. We know that
the Eagles run more single back that you rarely see
both Barkley and gain Will on the field, So if
there's going to be somebody hot, it's likely to be
(19:51):
the tight end end. Grant Calcata is very much a
blocking tight end, so that just gives you even more
ammunition for Goddard to be the hot in some of
these blitch situations. All Right, dp's got our favorite and
we're getting screwed. Donnie. It took seven years for them
to finally fix it. But these mahomes rushing numbers, Cash,
(20:17):
I fixed it. These mahomes rushing numbers are not as
juicy as they once were. That being said, it's still
the super Bowl and it's still Mames running. It's going
to happen.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:27):
I mean, when I listened to the Simmons pod and
I hear them talking about it, I know it's it's
we're done. But I'm still going to be a sucker
and buy in because I can't not, Like it's just
at this point you got to stick with the bit, right,
I mean, you just you gotta keep going. So yeah,
I'm gonna play the regular one over twenty eight and
a half, and then I'm just gonna.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Try and latter it. I mean, why not.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
Forty plus is plus one ninety five, fifty plus is
plus three seventy. I also like over five and a
half rushing attempts because then you can bake in those
kneel downs and then longest rush over thirteen and a half.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
I like that as well.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
I mean I know it, I know that might sound
like a lot thirteen and a half, but Mahomes always
has one of those plays in him rushing where it's
kind of like a broken down play. It's a scramble play.
His receivers are a bit down the field and the
next thing you know, he's off for like twenty three yards,
you know, and he might do the whole like fake
out of bounds, come back in and get another six
(21:20):
yards to it. So like, yeah, I think all of
this is just good and fun, and I like rooting
for overs because it's just more fun, especially in the
Super Bowl when like everything's just whatever, like, like you said,
off the top, rich, you know all the values beaten
out of these lines. So I mean in a way
like kind of let's just have some fun with it.
And one way to have some fun with is to
try and ladder this and see if he just goes off.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
I like the Mahomes attempts. There's been a ton of
it looks like action on the under. When Mo and
I were first looking at this, it was actually on
DK at least it was six and a half with uh,
I think it was like plus one sixty to the over.
And I think they just got so much action to
the ender that they actually lined it to five and
a half with now negative juice to the over. I
(22:03):
think I saw minus one forty to the over I
think when I was was looking. But I still do
like attempts more than yards for that reason dp of
the kneel down equity at the end, I'm going to
say this is the Rich Ryan special of where else
are you getting twenty two percent return on your money?
(22:26):
Mahomes four or more rushies is minus four forty, Like
in what world? It's not running four times in this game?
So I think that's the special. And then just keep
going DP because you think, and I agree with you,
that both quarterbacks will be running you like some of
these Hurts over as well.
Speaker 4 (22:46):
Yeah, I mean, and Hurts is he's a guy who
can certainly have more designed runs for him. You know,
I know that going into the last game there was
some concern about his injury status.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
He looks pretty alright to me overall.
Speaker 4 (23:02):
So again with him, you know, he's a guy where
like when Mahomes starts running, it's he if he if
he even starts, he's always still looking to pass or
even if he does break past the line of scrimmage,
he's looking to get.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Down looking or looking to fake pass.
Speaker 4 (23:17):
Yeah, he can like working, No, But but where Hurts
is like Hurts decides to go, the ball is tucked
and that guy's going right. So it's like the chances
for Hurts ripping off a huge one is is much
higher just because like when he tucks, he's now I'm
a running back.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Let's go right. So That's where I'm looking at with Hurts.
Speaker 4 (23:37):
Now, his his numbers in terms of like, first of all,
his his numbers thirty six and a half, I'm going
over there, and then his ladder's fifty plus is plus
one eighty five sixty plus plus three twenty. But then
it's also interesting that his longest rush is lower than
Mahomes eleven point five there, which I thought was a
little bit surprising to me, because I do think Hurts
has that capability to break off, you know, a twenty
(23:59):
twenty five yard run pretty easily. I mean, the guy
can move like He's not a slow quarterback by any means.
He can certainly get after it. So yeah, I'm attacking
both qbs, and again it just goes back to the
what we originally said about attacking the qbs and rushing
from the jump, you know, seven years ago, whatever the
hell it was. When it's all on the line, these
guys are going to lay it on the line.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Felix the Felix was that Duke and Daisy.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
The not even with me. So definitely, the.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
Only thing I'm worried about these longest is these are
two very good tackling teams, especially in the secondary, and
I think Jalen has shown some buyer's remorse, if that
makes sense, when it comes to running. I've seen him
slide a lot earlier.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
He's still turtling then necessary even in that Washington game.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
I mean, this is the super Bowl. You would think
that he would be a little more cavalier. When half
sag it matters more than it never will all season.
But but he's definitely been quicker to ground than previously noted.
That could be injury related though, and he's had two weeks,
so maybe that's going to be less of a factor
in this contest, but something to be aware of.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
I think it could be a coaching staff. Yeah, well,
just like they told him, this is what you have
to do, and he's listening because I've never seen him
run like this.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
Yeah, I mean he squats. He squats a thousand pounds.
You know, you would think that he'd be out of
here trying to truck people with the lower leg strength.
All right, speaking of tackling, speaking of exciting Whites off
the top, I like read blank and ship this is
on DK to lead the game and assists and tackles
at plus one thousand. He already did this in the
(25:44):
Eagles first playoff game this in in this playoffs, he
was second in tackles in the game against the Rams.
I believe and if I believe that, like the Eagles,
Kansas City is going to be attacking the middle of
the field and going after Orn Burks. I think there's
(26:06):
just going to be a ton of opportunities for Reblankenship
to come in and play clean up and get some tackles.
So I think at ten to one, this is a
much better number than either of the linebackers in Bolton
and Burkes, who are sub five bucks. So I think
this is an interesting click to get Blankenship at plus
one thousand. Another one where they've caught up. MO and
(26:29):
I agree on this one is longest field goal in
this game. MO and I both like the under forty
seven and a half, but unfortunately you got to pay
some juice minus one fifteen Mo. They've uh oh, not
so fast.
Speaker 2 (26:43):
I did find I did find a one to ten
on Caesars, So I think I'm going to go across
the river and bet it once.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Actually go yeah, talk about it, especially your guy Butker.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Yeah. Just you know, a lot of the stuff we've
talked about before and unfortunately didn't come in last week
when the Bill tried a long one pretty much right away.
I wonder if they regret that Harrison Bucker has tried
two field goals of longer than forty yards since he
came back from injury. He missed the only fifty yarder
he tried, so I don't know if he's even capable
(27:18):
of making a long kick right now. This is eye
test as well again the mechanics. He's still sinking to
a knee on his follow through. I don't think he's right.
I assuming the Chiefs are well aware of this and
will not try a long field goal, although it's interesting
because I believe he's favored in the longer field goal market,
like minus one thirty or something. But Jake Elliott's been
(27:40):
YEA a disaster.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
I think, absolutely horrific.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
Yeah, one of seven, and I think that's just his
regular season from fifty plus. He missed another fifty yarder
against Washington. Obviously, both of these teams can be aggressive
on fourth down at times. I mean, obviously we know
what the Eagles usually do, and then we saw Andy
Reid go for fourth and one on his own thirty five,
So I think he knows when to turn up the aggression.
Knob and I don't anticipate a lot of long kicks
(28:06):
in this game, and even if they happen, I think
it's maybe fifty to fifty whether they even go in.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Yeah, that's I mean, that's entirely the cap for me.
Both teams in the top third in terms of fourth
down conversion or not conversion fourth down go correctness. According
to RB's DM, they're going to be going for it.
It's going to be high leverage. Are they going to
trust these kickers that haven't made long kicks even though
it is indoors? So yeah, I'm very much on the
(28:33):
under in this game, and I anticipate myself screaming when
one of these idiots makes a forty nine yarder?
Speaker 2 (28:41):
So can I piggyback off this one?
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Really?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Feah, go for it.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
I found another one. We didn't talk about this the
other day, but I found it for my show with
Matt Brown the other day. Another fun one. I think
this was alongside along the lines of what Donnie thing.
If people want a fun swat, I think this is
a fun sweat. Over two and a half fourth conversions
is plus one twenty on DK minus everywhere else like
(29:05):
fanduels that like minus one oh six on over two
and a half, DK's got plus one twenty Based on
regular season numbers, we should be looking at about one
and a half, but we know that the aggression is
going to be way higher in the Super Bowl when
it's do or die, and the Eagles will get at
least one or two free VI's probably with the push play,
and then all you need is somebody to be down
(29:29):
and they're gonna be going for fourth downs in the
fourth quarter. So I like over two and a half
here at plus one twenty a fair amount.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Another thing is like every fourth down these teams face
is like pretty likely to be short because of what
we were talking about, the way these teams stay ahead
of the six. These teams are not going to be
in fourth and ten very often. It's going to be
fourth and five or less.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
If this is I wish this is the number I had,
and I'm positive the Eagles or top of the league
in this. If you look at running plays on third down,
because these teams know they're playing four down football, both
of these teams are likely to be amongst the league
leaders in third down rushing plays because they're smart and
they know they're playing four down football, which creates these
(30:15):
fourth and short opportunities where well.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
The Chiefs won't run, but they'll throw. Yeah, they'll throw.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Yeah, they'll throw a two yard girls through the Hollywood because.
Speaker 2 (30:25):
They know that guy's going to be open because the
defense is trying to guard all the people that are
past the six.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely, all right. DP has one that
I absolutely love. He's going into into every drooler who's
going into this weekend. It's Saquon's birthday, Saquon MVP sequon
this Squon that somehow this guy finished third in MVP
(30:52):
voting DPS going face first into the storm and betting
no touchdown for Markley.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
Yeah, let's go plus one sixty five. I also looked
at no touchdown for Jalen Hurts. Now I found that
I think even money is what I found. But my
issue there is I want the overs on all of
Jalen Hurts is rushing. So if that ultimately does result
in a touchdown on one of those plays, I don't
want to like be really annoyed with myself there. So
I'll just back off that one. I'll dive into the
(31:22):
Barkley one. I wanted to find some sort of way
to fade Saquon Barkley. The guy is a supreme talent. Yes,
he's freaking awesome. He's their entire offense, YadA YadA, YadA whatever.
I think that the Chiefs are gonna probably scheme against
him at least first and foremost. I mean, so yeah,
I just like no TD. I mean, there's plenty of
(31:43):
opportunities where Hurts can throw the ball to one of
those weapons, also Hurts doing a tush push or Hurts
running it in an etc. Like just I think that
it wouldn't be a shock to me if he doesn't score,
you know. But also, like you said, Rich, it's it's
just fun to go against the grain guy standing alone
in the corner, and then you're right at the end
of the day, all these all these droolers. I mean,
(32:05):
I saw one tweet this this week. It was like,
why don't we just put all of our tax dollars
on Jalen Hurts minus one twenty and we'll get out
of the deficit. And I was like, Okay, now I
gotta like, now I gotta find the opposite side. If
that's the mentality of people out there, we got it.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
We gotta go in right.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
So I've got one absolute punt and then floors open
if you guys have have any more. And this has
actually moved mo when I when I when I said
it on the Bad Lunch Show, it was one hundred
and ten to one. It's now one hundred and forty
to one. My guy, Grant cal Katerra first touchdown. This
is on FanDuel. This dude is playing forty percent of
(32:45):
the snaps. I mentioned his name earlier. He's basically a
pure blocking tight end. If he catches a ball in
a game, it's an absolute miracle. Okay, but you're telling
me if this guy's gonna be on the field forty
percent of the time and it's the absolute kitchen sync
game guy to have it, you're telling me this one
out of one hundred and forty times, they're not going
to run the tight end release with this guy in
(33:06):
the red zone and he's gonna score a touchdown. So
obviously love that. And then if you're going to take
an absolute punt on one of these, I always take
a share of my stake. So if you're going to
do one unit on this, I always take a quarter
unit and put it on first touchdown, two touchdowns, because
that's the absolute spin up. That market is only available
(33:27):
on DraftKings. They are not listing two touchdowns for Grant
Calcutear on vandal that market is only on DraftKings. That's
five hundred and fifty to one if Grant Calcaterra wins
scores two touchdowns, So I doubt you're even getting five
fifty to one on Calcuata to win MVP, which this
is the only scenario with which he can win MVP
is him scoring multiple whatever two yard touchdowns. So this
(33:50):
is a super duper absolute punt. Have your fun something, Calcutear.
If this guy scores first, I want my Twitter mansions
to be on fire because because people have cast big tickets.
Anything else, O DP, you got one more?
Speaker 3 (34:08):
Yeah hunt anytime TD.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
I mean to me, he's there in a lot of
ways there tush push guy if I want to call
him that, Like like they don't do the tush push
thing with with mahomes, Like it's like they're petrified since
he got hurt, which I I I don't. I still
don't understand that. I just don't. It was like one
freak injury and you're gonna deny the fact then never
(34:32):
like never again. I mean, it's just it's so weird
to me, especially now you want to deny him.
Speaker 3 (34:37):
From doing that.
Speaker 4 (34:38):
In Week eight, against the freaking Bengals. I don't give
a shit, do whatever you want, but when it's win
or go home every single week, I mean, who cares?
Like I mean, risk it what? Like it was such
a freak injury. I feel like I feel like they
they're like, oh, yeah, if once he does it, he's
just gonna, you know, his kneecap is just gonna fly
to the side, Like no, that's not how this works. Okay,
it's not how it works. So yeah, I mean they
they use Hunt all the time and short yards he
(35:00):
produces very, very well, so you know, why not if
they get close to the end zone, I think they're
just going to hand it off to him. I think
he's preferred more so than Pacheco in a lot of
these situations. You get plus one fifty on this, so yeah,
I like it.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
Yeah, post injury, Pacheco has not been able to crack
that thirty, like thirty percent rush share.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
Well, Yeah, Donnie made a very I think sharp pick here.
When I wrote up the Chiefs touchdowns for the lines,
I thought Kareem Hunt was the best value on the
board at plus one forty or so. I just think,
like Donnie said, he's the clear preferred short yardage option.
So uh, you know the Eagles like to play light boxes.
(35:39):
I think that changes maybe in the red zone, but
he'll get at least a few cracks, I'm pretty sure.
So plus one forty I just think is a bit
too high. I want to follow up on your backup
tight end play and go for some Noah Gray over here.
I think they're still in eleven and a half. It's
starting to go up. I think most places have gone
(36:01):
up to twelve and a half. Last time I looked,
which was yesterday, DK still had eleven and a half
minus one thirteen. He's still playing more than forty percent,
right around fifty percent of the snaps. We know that
the Eagles are going to leave short and middle open generally,
and that is the only place Noah Gray runs routes.
(36:22):
So I think he gets at least a couple catches.
I think we're getting a by low price here because
he's basically done nothing in the playoffs. He had three
targets across the first two games. They were all against Houston.
One thing I noticed as well, when I was looking
up formation tendencies, the Eagles are actually quite a bit
weaker facing twelve personnel than eleven where they are elite
(36:44):
this year. Presumably the chiefs staff is well aware of
this and will attack with a heavy dose of twelve.
So I don't mind also being a little bit aggressive
here with Noah Gray and going for you can get
plus by fifty to score. That was my their tout
on the touchdown markets. I think that's okay as well.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
Our guy Steven Andres in the discord has one hundred
and it was one hundred and eighty one ticket on
uh Noah gros So fingers crossed Mahomes bananas peppers. I
have this one too, by the way, I have no
Gray over eleven and a half. I mean part of
this is if they key in on Kelsey. I mean,
(37:27):
Mahomes trusts Gray. He's trusted them before in big spots,
so why why not? Right, go back to the Carolina.
They're back to the Carolina game, absolute desperation mode, trailing
against a bad team on the road. Noah Gray was
the guy right like, this is the thing that happened.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
He scored more touchdowns than Travis Kelcey this year.
Speaker 4 (37:47):
Yeah, I mean Noah Gray's and he's he's not someone
who it's not like this is a new person for
this team, you know, to come alongside Traws, and he's
been there for a while. He has that rapport with
Mahomes like it's it's the whole thing, like it. If
he and you need it in the Super Bowl, then
he's going to go to his guy.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
I've never seen Noah Gray break a tackle, I don't think,
and I've also don't think I've ever seen him drop
a ball. So what I can tell you is that
if he catches it, it's going to be for a
round seven yards and he will be quickly tackled and
we will be onto the next play. So we probably
need to catches.
Speaker 1 (38:19):
Here anything else. The other one I'm interested is p
Rhine over seven and a half receiving yards. This has been,
This has moved. I first saw it at minus one
oh three, it's now minus one fifteen. You're basically betting
on some Ajpuran catching a pass right. His average is
above ten in terms of yards per reception. He's very
(38:42):
much a schemed player. He only gets about ten percent
of the snaps at running back, so he's not going
to see the field a ton, But if they scheme
a play.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
He pretty much only plays on third and long, like
that's pretty much when he plays.
Speaker 1 (38:56):
Yeah, and you talk about Noah great Now being involved.
Samaja Pirri didn't have a catch until one minute left
in the game last week in the entire playoffs, so
he went one hundred and nineteen minutes without catching a
ball in the playoffs. Spot to seal the game in
the AFC, they went to sma j Pirron and he
had a seventeen yard play. So you're basically your You're
(39:16):
essentially betting on Peron having a catch. But the reception
markets are all lined at minus, are all lined at
one and a half, and the overs like insane, and
I think just betting the yards is the best way
to go anything else before we get at it on
Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
Yeah, another fun one go teeth under four and a
half rushers plus one oh five on DK. I'm praying
this is still there. It has not moved all week
when I looked at it, So it's finally time for
me to go get some money down on this. This
number is minus at some other places. Number one, it's
it's not even one hundred percent certain Xavier Worthy gets
(39:56):
a rush, So I mean it's likely, but it's not certain,
so Worthy Mahomes and two running backs gets the Chiefs
to four. And I have no idea who the market
is expecting to be the fifth ball carrier here.
Speaker 4 (40:10):
Because isn't it isn't it Worthy or Kelsey?
Speaker 3 (40:14):
Like, it's not both?
Speaker 2 (40:15):
That's that's what I like.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
Why would it ever be both?
Speaker 2 (40:18):
I don't remember the last time a tight end took
a snap for the Chiefs. It's it's been some time.
Only two other players on the team besides those four
that have more than five carries, which is Nicole Hardman
by the way, so that's not even a bar that
matters because he's not on the team for this game
is Perine and uh Carson Steel. Carson Steel has been
(40:42):
relegated to special teams and pe Ine very rarely carries
the ball. He hasn't carried the ball since the Steelers game,
which I think that was Christmas. Uh So, yeah, well
he had against Denver, but I'm not even counting that
as a real game. But yeah, he had two carries
against the Feelers and did not sniff a carry in
(41:02):
the last two games. Like Rich was saying, he and
he only plays third and long and the Chiefs are
not probably going to be punting any third and lungs
in a game that is called the Super Bowl, So
I would expect him to have zero carries in this game.
Speaker 1 (41:19):
I think your only fear is the Kelsey touch push.
But do you want to do that? Do you want
to do that against Jalen Carter? And the Chiefs have
so much success on that sprint out in short yardage
where it's basically like a speed option where Mahomes can
throw it to the back or throw it to the
tight end on a hook, and Mahomes always makes the
(41:40):
right decision because he's Patrick Mahomes. And instead of putting
all your eggs in the can we block Jalen carter basket,
You're putting your eggs and Ken Mahomes make the right play,
which is normally a very good bet in those spots.
I mean, I mean, they even ran that same sprint
out play with who is the backup quarterback Chad Henny
had Henny They ran this for napp play and didn't
(42:02):
he didn't. He just bust it up and run for
like a bunch of other dude.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
Yeah, and then he hit Tyreek Hill as well on
the same play for another conversion.
Speaker 1 (42:11):
I think, yeah, they had that deep boat. They have
a deep over on the back if you're really gambling.
But yeah, it's just it's just a play that just works.
So yeah, I think you're only fearos the tight end
toast Bush, which I think we'll fade. Perhaps Super Bowl
l I X again. I think it's gonna be poring. Sorry, guys,
(42:31):
I think I think we're in for like Chiefs twenty No,
because I don't think they're gonna be field deals. It's
gonna be like Chiefs twenty one, Eagles fourteen. Get your
get your unders in, get your unders in, get your
under ladders. And this isn't Bill's Chiefs and won't remember
we were telling people to bet over ninety and that
we're like whatever, whatever the highest number. And I mean
(42:54):
we were right. These teams were scoring multiple touchdowns in
thirteen seconds. But yeah, I think your unders are coming in.
I think your all unders are coming in. And I
think we see Mahomes and Reid do it again. All right, mo,
good luck. I hope you have a stress free Sunday.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
I'm gonna be on the edge of my seat no
matter what happens. So I've put too much. I've put
too much on the line with my mahomes legacy shit talk.
So you know I'm emotionally invested in this.
Speaker 1 (43:27):
I know Donnie'll be in the edge of a seat
because TV twelve is talking throughout the entire game. Unfortunately,
your guy DP. Can we talk about Tom having an
MVP vote when he's an owner of a team?
Speaker 2 (43:40):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (43:41):
He does?
Speaker 2 (43:41):
Going on here? Why is this okay?
Speaker 1 (43:45):
Yeah, it seems like in the categories of conflict of interest,
this is like S tier conflict.
Speaker 4 (43:52):
Well, I think they didn't. They say he was also
like allowed in the meetings this week. I thought the
owner of the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (43:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
I don't really understand that one. I mean, people, these
league office people talk all the time with each other
like there's just tampering twenty four seven in professional sports leagues,
like just deal with it.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
I'm not. That doesn't rub me the wrong way either.
I think I have an MVP BUTO to I.
Speaker 3 (44:13):
Mean, I don't.
Speaker 4 (44:13):
I personally don't get it from Brady's perspective.
Speaker 3 (44:17):
I mean, you.
Speaker 4 (44:18):
Clearly have enough money that you can get a piece
of an NFL team. You look at the freaking dawn
walking around out there every time you walk onto the
field and clothes clothes and sunglasses and everything that's worth
more than I'll ever be worth in my life. So like,
why do you have to hop into the commentary and
subject yourself to that sort of criticism? Like I don't
understand why you even bother to do this. Go own
(44:38):
the team, like and try and try and like run
the team or like do but do more things that.
Speaker 3 (44:42):
Way and have your quote unquote voice heard in.
Speaker 4 (44:45):
That regard and maybe you know one day you like
get a bigger share and you ultimately own the whole team.
I don't know, but like it just seems weird that
even he wants to do it.
Speaker 1 (44:53):
Maybe maybe he just he's getting as much money as
possible for that FTX lawsuit that's coming. Scumbag, he's got
enough money.
Speaker 2 (45:01):
Okay, I was gonna say, I think part of it
could be. You know how these people are, they're all lunatics.
Tom Brady especially, you know, he's a lunatic. He knows
he sucks at this, well, he used to suck. I
think he's fine now. He was really bad at the
start of the season. I think he's gone a lot better.
And yeah, I think you know, competitive fire in these people.
(45:23):
It doesn't matter what the arena is. If it's literally
a job and he knows people were saying how bad
he was, he probably wants to prove to people he
can do this.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
Sure, I don't doubt that.
Speaker 4 (45:32):
I mean, I'm also I'm personally flabbergasted, like I don't
know anyone. Do people actually tune in because Brady is
commentating like I don't understand you don't, like, you don't
ever hear that, Like even from the most casual of casuals,
you don't hear them be like, oh, I gotta watch
because Brady's on coms Like, I don't I tell him
(45:53):
what You're going to pay him three hundred million.
Speaker 3 (45:55):
Dollars, I don't. It doesn't make any sense to me.
Speaker 1 (45:57):
Well, that's the sneaky thing about the Manning deal too,
is at ESPN is paying Omaha Productions an ungodly amount
of money, but they're really paying them for all the
content that they produce, because if you look at the
ratings for the Manning cast, they're like a tenth of
what the game does on Big ESPN and and ABC.
For your point, like, the mannings are extremely entertaining, extremely likable,
(46:23):
but it just doesn't move the needle whatsoever.
Speaker 4 (46:26):
But at least at least with that one, it's like
it's a totally different product. Yeah, for sure, Like you
could you tune in and you're like, yeah, I'm like,
I watched the Manning cast because I just think it's
more fun, it's more casual, like whatever. It's it's great
for me. Yeah, But like I don't think anyone's tuning
in and just being.
Speaker 3 (46:39):
Like, yeah, Brady, let's go. That's what I'm gonna watch.
Speaker 1 (46:42):
Yeah, if it's if it's Jags Titans, I'll watch the
Manning cast. But if it's a game I care about,
I want uh, I want Buck and Akman on the call.
I just think it it lends a little bit more gravitas,
I will say. Greg Olsen, he's watching this one on
Univision right. He's brushing up on his duelingo and watching
this one on Spanish.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
Right.
Speaker 1 (47:00):
He has no interest in listening Tom Rady call the
Super Bowl. All right, good luck, Mo, good luck with
your bets, Brett, Donnie, good luck Brett too. Good luck
with your bets everybody out there. We're traditionally horrific at
recapping the Super Bowl. I'm stamping right now. We will
(47:21):
do something next week. There will be some recap win
or lose. MO might not be with them, but there
will be some kind of content. And then after that
we always come back for a draft episode and then
after that when Vegas win totals come out. So that
is your off season schedule. But enjoy the game, enjoy
the football, enjoy the halftime, enjoy the food. Be safe,
(47:43):
peace outs,
And welcome back to Great Higher Cambell, the only podcast
to put this money where its mouth is. I'm your host,
rich Ron, and I'm joined by two members of the collective.
I almost screwed it up again, Ty thev beaters and
the resident moves himself Moan Nuwara. If you're watching this
(00:31):
on YouTube, please like the video and subscribe to the channel.
Listeners rate and reviewing your Podcatter of Choice five stars only.
I'm counting it like Will Shipley, who No, he was
not a five star athlete playing professional football, playing throwball.
It was a five star athlete in lacrosse, but he
(00:53):
was a six point zero four star in football. We
were looking at his photo on rivals from North Carolina
and just by the looks of it, if you're doing
some profiling, you would probably put put two stars next
to Will Chipley.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Mo.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
You gotta smile on over there. But before record you
were scowling a little bit. You were a little upset
because we are keeping you from a poker game over
the river. We're costing you hundreds of thousands of dollars
inequity in this.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Poker Shorthanded high sakes PLO my favorite game to play.
I'm missing five, ten, twenty five short handed, three or
four handed plo right now, So I don't know if
it's hundreds of thousands, but I think I can beat
that game for more than one hundred dollars an hour,
so probably something between three hundred and five hundred dollars.
(01:47):
You guys are worth at least.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
That to me, So now you know that warms warms
my heart. No, Brett, Brett's got some some family stuff
going on, so thoughts out to him. But let's roll
on to the super Bowl. We're the last people on Earth.
I guess there's people that are gonna have like Saturday
shows and stuff. We're the last humans on Earth that
are breaking down super Bowl fifty nine down in New Orleans.
We're so late that most of the people that went
(02:13):
for media week are just gone already. Probably the people
that don't stick around for the game, like they are
already on flights back to their homes instead of sticking
around and going to the actual contest on Sunday. And
I think for good reason I'm talking about why we're
so late is that I don't know. I don't think
(02:34):
any of us have a super duper, duper strong opinion
on this game. I think that most of the content
out there has kind of been beaten to death, and honestly,
this is the Super Bowl's kind of gotten to be
one of the most boring caps. I know I'm making
content I shouldn't be saying this, but like one of
the most boring caps of the year, because all these
(02:55):
lines are razor sharp, especially by the time we get
to them. MO and I did a show on the
Bad Lens Network, My Guys with the Jets Jets Jet Chets,
where we gave us some takes last week which Mo
killed it. A lot of the markets moved in his favor.
I had one that moved in my favor. But these
things have just they've really settled, so there's not a
(03:17):
ton of value to be had. But it is a
Super Bowl, so obviously folks will be wagering on it,
having some fun and hopefully we can provide you with
some winners. But let's check in with Mo Burst on
the game on your Chiefs. I think all of us
have a pretty standard philosophy of entering into props. We
(03:39):
want to forecast what the range of outcomes is in
the contest and then go from there. You don't want
to have props that don't correlate with how you think
the game is going to run out. So we'll start
with you, Mo, as my kid allows from the background,
what's your take on this game? Are your Chiefs going
to do it? And how's it going to influence you
(03:59):
on Therofs?
Speaker 2 (04:01):
I think so. I think the Chiefs matchup pretty well
with the Eagles, just style of play wise. They like
to blitz a lot. The opposing quarterback is weak against
the blitz. They are a high success rate offense that
doesn't require a lot of big plays, which is kind
(04:24):
of how we saw the Rams have some success against
the Eagles. I think, I know that they do produce
more big plays down the field with their passing game,
but they moved the ball pretty consistently. Probably outplayed the
Eagles in that game, but everyone is erasing that from
their memory because the Eagles scored fifty five on the JV.
(04:48):
Washington team over there, that you know. I mean, I
love Jayden Daniels, he had a good game. It wasn't
his fault, but you know, shocker, a young team wasn't
ready for a big spot like that and pissed down
their own legs, which I'm not really going to blame
them for it. Like I said, it's pretty standard stuff
when you're I mean the Chiefs, which is the modern dynasty,
(05:12):
frittered away an entire half against the Patriots in twenty eighteen,
so you know, this is a pretty normal course of
course of action for these teams in these huge spots
for the first time. So not trying to slander Washington
at all. I think it's just completely understandable what happened.
But it also makes me I feel like people are
(05:32):
giving the Eagles too much credit for that game. This
has not been that strong of a playoff run for
the Eagles. I mean, first of all, that game could
have been a lot closer if a few plays had
flipped the other way, which they probably should have. Talking
about that fumble, Saquan Hold, Devonte Smith maybe being out
of bounce not at all things really didn't deserve to win.
(05:53):
They definitely did, but that game was probably not really
a thirty point game in reality, And and we know
that the Eagles obviously didn't look very good in the
two rounds before that, so I think they've been a
bit overrated and the Chiefs will probably win the game,
but yeah, I expect a lot of long drives and
(06:16):
could come down to some mistakes, kind of similar to
the Bills Chiefs game.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Yeah, you talk about the lack of explosiveness in Casey's offense.
We've had members of Oh I wanted to bring this
up the Discord. By the way, members of the Discord
our guy mac Clark shitting on Mahomes's a dot are
oars all year. First, I'm going to give love to
both the Discord and to mo. If you want to
join the Discord, you could just type in bit do
(06:42):
l y slash Discord moves, or check the description of
this show on whatever platform you can get in there.
The other day, I was changing kiddo and popped my
back like literally audible echoing off of the walls pop.
And it was my Jordan flu moment. I was on
(07:02):
my knees in excruciating pain, was able to finish the
diaper change. It was legendary stuff. But then I hopped
into Discord, went into the off topic channel and I
was like, guys, I'm dead. Somebody help. And Moe, who
has done this before and had pt before, hops on
FaceTime with your boy, shows me a couple of stretches
(07:22):
and I'm walking no less than fifteen minutes later, no
more than fifteen minutes later. So hop in the discord,
and thanks to Moe for getting me across the line.
Back to the point of the lack of explosiveness that
the Chiefs not being a problem though this is a
Vic Fangio offense that plays cover six quarters, rally and tackle.
(07:45):
The spots of this defense that can be attacked are
the ones that the Chiefs are not only good at,
but they've been doing so for the entire season. And
now you've got something burks in for Nacoby Dean, a
guy who they targeted last year year in the Super
Bowl with tons of success when there was an injury
to the Niners. And all of the strengths for this
(08:09):
Eagles team are on the boundary and on the defensive line.
We've seen what Mahomes does against pressure. We've seen what
Mahomes does over the middle of the field. The Chiefs
are going to figure this out. And then you've got
Jalen Hurts against Steve Spagnolo. Right, You've got questionable depth
at center for the Eagles against Chris Jones. So I
(08:31):
think people are really they're doing the roster best roster
argument for this, and I think they really are devaluing
the advantages that the Chiefs have at two of the
most important spots quarterback and head coach. But then also
the level of just preparedness and execution that Spagnolo is
(08:59):
going to have entry during this game against Shalen Hurts,
a player who I mean, we've seen it going back
to when he just started playing in this league. When
there's an ounce of resistance, when there's any type of
negative script, it's just not the environment with which he
thrives in. Do I think the Chiefs are going to
blow doors? No, that's just not their identity. Again, if
they're not going to have any explosiveness, it doesn't really
(09:20):
play into some kind of Chiefs route. But I think
this is for sure Chiefs in a low scoring game.
I do like the under I touted alternate under on
the bad Lands. I think forty and a half is
the lowest i'd go. I think you can get that
at plus two forty. Still, let's move ten cents since
I touted it on that show. Because the total is
sneaking down down to forty seven and a half, people
(09:41):
are looking at the Dome and these two teams and
these two offenses, and they're thinking points. But I just
think the style of play, the Eagles being dead last
and pass right over expectation. I think this is going
to be a slow, grinded out game that I don't
think people are going to love that much, to be honest.
So I'm a Chiefs lean as well, and Donnie echoing
at all, you're with us, You're leaning ac Yeah, I mean,
(10:07):
I think my big thing is about Jalen Hurts, and
I'm the most pro Jalen Hurts guy on this podcast.
I just I like his makeup. Now that said, you
look at him on the field and it's not always
that great. And am I supposed to believe because he
had one decent game last week against a defense that
(10:29):
I think many people as have felt was a bit
of a house of cards and could fall.
Speaker 3 (10:33):
Apart almost at any time.
Speaker 4 (10:35):
Not that they entirely fell apart, but could get got
a little bit versus what Jalen Hurts has done for
the large majority of the season. And then when you
add in the fact that he's going against a tough defense,
a well coached, tough defense that can get after him.
I'm not gonna go against what I've seen as the
whole versus what I've seen in one game. Did Jalen
(10:56):
Hurts play good last time out against the Slurs?
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
He did, But I mean, is he going to play
good against the Chiefs? I mean, how am I supposed.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
To trust that that defense spags coming after you if
the Chiefs are up, he's traaling like I mean, it
just doesn't seem like that's going to be the case.
So that's why I'm ultimately leaning towards the Chiefs. Now, yes,
the Chiefs obviously have Mahomes, they have Reed. I get that,
you know. I think that it's like it's Mahomes and
(11:27):
Reid versus the Eagles as a team. That's kind of
like even. But then I give the nod to the
Chiefs because of the Chiefs defense I think is really
really good and they're going to get after Jalen Hurts.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Well. Donnie brings up an interesting point that I've thought about,
which is is it worth betting the Chiefs before the game,
Because I feel like if the Chiefs are up and
the price gets worse, it's okay because I don't think
the Eagles can come back against the Chiefs. But if
it's the other way around and the Chiefs are down,
I think the Chiefs are still alive to come back
(11:59):
against the Eagles. So I actually do wonder if you're
better off if you like the Chiefs just waiting to
bet live might be better no matter what happens.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
Yeah, I'm fine with that angle because, yeah, like you said,
we've seen it before, with the Texans obviously being the
most extreme example a few years ago and Donnie double
triple quadruple dipping with every single Houston score didn't matter.
The Chiefs were able to mountain and saying come back,
and then Yeah, on the other side, it's almost a
(12:28):
tail as old as time. Jalen hurts in a negative script,
especially against the Spagnolo defense, which is prepared for two
weeks for this spot, that could just be a nightmare
scenario for an Eagles team that is just it's just
not prepared to play pure drop back football against a
very good defense. I think that's a very fine angle
to take. The other angle that I think we all
(12:50):
agree on based on conversations Bo and I have had,
based on the props that Donnie has sent, and based
on everything I've seen over the past two weeks, is
we like the titands in this game because, as I
call out the linebackers for the Eagles, especially Burks, we
don't have a lot of coverage strengths on the Chiefs either,
(13:16):
Tranquil Bolton Chanelle. We saw it in the conference championship
with Mac Collins and Khalil Shakir getting targeted over the
middle of the field with a lot of success. So
the first one, everybody loves Dallas Goddard this week and
the act.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
I haven't seen one who isn't on Dallas Goddard over
this week.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Yeah, the action has certainly gone in his direction. So
I'll give you I think the spiciest way to attack
this and this is what I touted on Bad Lens
was on DK. They have in the game leaders market,
they have most rushing and receiving and obviously in that market,
Saquan has a ton of gravity because he goes both
(13:58):
ways and is able to I mean, he's the type
of player that could have two hundred toll yards and
it's not a shock whatsoever. He could damn near have
two hundred rushing yards, let alone before you factor in
the receiving yards. But in these markets, when there's a
ton of gravity at the top, that creates a bunch
of value at the bottom. We saw it in the
Rookie of the Year market with Kayleb Williams. You could
have gotten Jayden Daniels at as good as plus seven hundred.
(14:19):
We saw it in the rookie receiving market with MHJ.
I got Brian Thomas Junior at sixteen to one. Because
of that, and because there's so much gravity in this
market for Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goddard is plus two thousand
to lead the game in rushing and receiving. Obviously, if
you want to go to the risk averse route just receiving,
I'm still okay with the plus eight fifty, but I'm
(14:41):
going to go for the big swing. I'm going to
go for the home run and hope that he has
the most rushing in receiving yards in this game. But
if you want to go the plane Jane route, TP
has the over on forty nine and a half receiving
yards as well.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
Yeah, I mean, god, where'd you get that number? I
think it was on fando.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
I thought everyone was up to like fifty one, two.
Speaker 3 (15:04):
No, I mean it might be up. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
And I was already thinking a couple of days ago
that I was probably getting a bad number just because
I hadn't looked in a while.
Speaker 3 (15:11):
So I mean whatever.
Speaker 4 (15:12):
But I mean, part of this for me is that
Kelsey's numbers are so out of the out of this
world that I'm like, I can't even touch Travis Kelsey.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
I mean, it's just what are we doing here?
Speaker 4 (15:24):
I mean, so, I mean, Goddard's a good quality tight end.
Jalen Hurts gets him the ball, you know, whether it's
it's plays that are meant to go to him or
if he's kind of like that ballout option if nothing
else is open on the play, like he's a very
trustworthy receiving option four Hurts. I think they're gonna look
at him a lot. If I think that the Chiefs
(15:46):
on defense are gonna look to at first stop Saquon Well,
the ball's got to be coming out of Jalen Hurts
his hands.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
Where's that ball gonna go? I'm looking at Dallas.
Speaker 4 (15:56):
Godd and then forty nine and a half. I mean,
I I don't think you necessarily need a ton of
catches from him, because we've seen at times when Goddard
has been able to break one fairly long. You know,
whether that's twenty twenty five, thirty yards, whatever it is,
get a good chunk of that yardage there. And then
also going back to the game script, if we do
think that the Chiefs are going to be controlling this
(16:16):
game playing from the front and the Eagles are then
playing from behind, well I think they're going to have
to push the envelope a little bit more, which means
a little bit more throwing.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Speaking of Travis Kelcey, I know these numbers have deflated
a little bit. But speaking of the tight ends and Goddard,
one of the ways you were attacking this tight end market,
MO was some some matchups that you were looking at
the last time we.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Spoke, Yeah, I recommended a play on Goddard and DeVante Smith.
DK has had to head matchups with both against Travis Kelcey. Unfortunately,
someone slammed them and I think they came down each
like fifteen percent, so it's like a fair amount. I
don't know if they're worth playing any more. I think
(17:00):
they're at least worth looking at if you are bullish
Goddard and even like an ounce, Bearish Kelsey, same thing
for Demonte Smith. These were around I want to say
they were plus one fifty five and plus one forty five,
and I think they're down closer to like plus one
thirty now, so not as much value as there was,
(17:23):
but still might be worth playing if you're into that.
You know, it's a different way to go for that one,
like you were saying about the receiving slash rushing leader.
So yeah, I mean, I think those are at least
worth looking at. I feel a little bit sick when
I bet into the worst of the number like that,
(17:44):
but it might still be okay. I mean it's still
plus a fair amount, and I'm not like super confident
Travis Kelsey is going to have a big game either,
So I just think this is an eye test thing
for me. Where like last year, Yes, he looked rejuvenated,
much better against Buffalo, He's toasting people one on one,
he's catching touchdowns. That's not what's been happening in this postseason.
(18:07):
He had a couple of big plays against Houston, and
he looked as slow as he did the rest of
the year. In those plays. They just very poor tackling
by Houston. So I don't think Travis Kelcey is rejuvenated
at all, and I think he's probably ticketed for a
bit role here relative to what the market seems to think.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
Just a couple of numbers here on Goddard tied for
the team league in targets here in the playoffs, and
his yards per target is nine point six, So in
the same vein as Mose live opportunities perhaps on the
Chiefs in the game. I don't know if these markets
how aggressive they'll be with live props. I know that
there's some available, they're available in some spots. And the
(18:50):
way that Goddard can get his yards, especially against the
seam here, you know, beyond even the linebackers. The safety
position for Kansas City isn't that great in cover just
they could come in chunks. So even after like a
quiet first quarter, you might even be able to jump
into the Goddard market in a live proposition in the
(19:11):
same vein that that you're looking at with Kansas City
on the game there.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
The Chiefs also allowed the most hearts and the second
most catches to tight ends this year, if people want
to put some numbers behind that. So that's pretty it's
a pretty strong trend there.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
Yeah. Absolutely, And then to Donnie's point about being hot too,
we know Spags is going to blitz. The closer you
are to the ball at the at the snap, the
more likely you are to be hot. We know that
the Eagles run more single back that you rarely see
both Barkley and gain Will on the field, So if
there's going to be somebody hot, it's likely to be
(19:51):
the tight end end. Grant Calcata is very much a
blocking tight end, so that just gives you even more
ammunition for Goddard to be the hot in some of
these blitch situations. All Right, dp's got our favorite and
we're getting screwed. Donnie. It took seven years for them
to finally fix it. But these mahomes rushing numbers, Cash,
(20:17):
I fixed it. These mahomes rushing numbers are not as
juicy as they once were. That being said, it's still
the super Bowl and it's still Mames running. It's going
to happen.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:27):
I mean, when I listened to the Simmons pod and
I hear them talking about it, I know it's it's
we're done. But I'm still going to be a sucker
and buy in because I can't not, Like it's just
at this point you got to stick with the bit, right,
I mean, you just you gotta keep going. So yeah,
I'm gonna play the regular one over twenty eight and
a half, and then I'm just gonna.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Try and latter it. I mean, why not.
Speaker 4 (20:46):
Forty plus is plus one ninety five, fifty plus is
plus three seventy. I also like over five and a
half rushing attempts because then you can bake in those
kneel downs and then longest rush over thirteen and a half.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
I like that as well.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
I mean I know it, I know that might sound
like a lot thirteen and a half, but Mahomes always
has one of those plays in him rushing where it's
kind of like a broken down play. It's a scramble play.
His receivers are a bit down the field and the
next thing you know, he's off for like twenty three yards,
you know, and he might do the whole like fake
out of bounds, come back in and get another six
(21:20):
yards to it. So like, yeah, I think all of
this is just good and fun, and I like rooting
for overs because it's just more fun, especially in the
Super Bowl when like everything's just whatever, like, like you said,
off the top, rich, you know all the values beaten
out of these lines. So I mean in a way
like kind of let's just have some fun with it.
And one way to have some fun with is to
try and ladder this and see if he just goes off.
Speaker 1 (21:41):
I like the Mahomes attempts. There's been a ton of
it looks like action on the under. When Mo and
I were first looking at this, it was actually on
DK at least it was six and a half with uh,
I think it was like plus one sixty to the over.
And I think they just got so much action to
the ender that they actually lined it to five and
a half with now negative juice to the over. I
(22:03):
think I saw minus one forty to the over I
think when I was was looking. But I still do
like attempts more than yards for that reason dp of
the kneel down equity at the end, I'm going to
say this is the Rich Ryan special of where else
are you getting twenty two percent return on your money?
(22:26):
Mahomes four or more rushies is minus four forty, Like
in what world? It's not running four times in this game?
So I think that's the special. And then just keep
going DP because you think, and I agree with you,
that both quarterbacks will be running you like some of
these Hurts over as well.
Speaker 4 (22:46):
Yeah, I mean, and Hurts is he's a guy who
can certainly have more designed runs for him. You know,
I know that going into the last game there was
some concern about his injury status.
Speaker 3 (22:58):
He looks pretty alright to me overall.
Speaker 4 (23:02):
So again with him, you know, he's a guy where
like when Mahomes starts running, it's he if he if
he even starts, he's always still looking to pass or
even if he does break past the line of scrimmage,
he's looking to get.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
Down looking or looking to fake pass.
Speaker 4 (23:17):
Yeah, he can like working, No, But but where Hurts
is like Hurts decides to go, the ball is tucked
and that guy's going right. So it's like the chances
for Hurts ripping off a huge one is is much
higher just because like when he tucks, he's now I'm
a running back.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Let's go right. So That's where I'm looking at with Hurts.
Speaker 4 (23:37):
Now, his his numbers in terms of like, first of all,
his his numbers thirty six and a half, I'm going
over there, and then his ladder's fifty plus is plus
one eighty five sixty plus plus three twenty. But then
it's also interesting that his longest rush is lower than
Mahomes eleven point five there, which I thought was a
little bit surprising to me, because I do think Hurts
has that capability to break off, you know, a twenty
(23:59):
twenty five yard run pretty easily. I mean, the guy
can move like He's not a slow quarterback by any means.
He can certainly get after it. So yeah, I'm attacking
both qbs, and again it just goes back to the
what we originally said about attacking the qbs and rushing
from the jump, you know, seven years ago, whatever the
hell it was. When it's all on the line, these
guys are going to lay it on the line.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Felix the Felix was that Duke and Daisy.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
The not even with me. So definitely, the.
Speaker 1 (24:30):
Only thing I'm worried about these longest is these are
two very good tackling teams, especially in the secondary, and
I think Jalen has shown some buyer's remorse, if that
makes sense, when it comes to running. I've seen him
slide a lot earlier.
Speaker 2 (24:47):
He's still turtling then necessary even in that Washington game.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
I mean, this is the super Bowl. You would think
that he would be a little more cavalier. When half
sag it matters more than it never will all season.
But but he's definitely been quicker to ground than previously noted.
That could be injury related though, and he's had two weeks,
so maybe that's going to be less of a factor
in this contest, but something to be aware of.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
I think it could be a coaching staff. Yeah, well,
just like they told him, this is what you have
to do, and he's listening because I've never seen him
run like this.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
Yeah, I mean he squats. He squats a thousand pounds.
You know, you would think that he'd be out of
here trying to truck people with the lower leg strength.
All right, speaking of tackling, speaking of exciting Whites off
the top, I like read blank and ship this is
on DK to lead the game and assists and tackles
at plus one thousand. He already did this in the
(25:44):
Eagles first playoff game this in in this playoffs, he
was second in tackles in the game against the Rams.
I believe and if I believe that, like the Eagles,
Kansas City is going to be attacking the middle of
the field and going after Orn Burks. I think there's
(26:06):
just going to be a ton of opportunities for Reblankenship
to come in and play clean up and get some tackles.
So I think at ten to one, this is a
much better number than either of the linebackers in Bolton
and Burkes, who are sub five bucks. So I think
this is an interesting click to get Blankenship at plus
one thousand. Another one where they've caught up. MO and
(26:29):
I agree on this one is longest field goal in
this game. MO and I both like the under forty
seven and a half, but unfortunately you got to pay
some juice minus one fifteen Mo. They've uh oh, not
so fast.
Speaker 2 (26:43):
I did find I did find a one to ten
on Caesars, So I think I'm going to go across
the river and bet it once.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
Actually go yeah, talk about it, especially your guy Butker.
Speaker 2 (26:54):
Yeah. Just you know, a lot of the stuff we've
talked about before and unfortunately didn't come in last week
when the Bill tried a long one pretty much right away.
I wonder if they regret that Harrison Bucker has tried
two field goals of longer than forty yards since he
came back from injury. He missed the only fifty yarder
he tried, so I don't know if he's even capable
(27:18):
of making a long kick right now. This is eye
test as well again the mechanics. He's still sinking to
a knee on his follow through. I don't think he's right.
I assuming the Chiefs are well aware of this and
will not try a long field goal, although it's interesting
because I believe he's favored in the longer field goal market,
like minus one thirty or something. But Jake Elliott's been
(27:40):
YEA a disaster.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
I think, absolutely horrific.
Speaker 2 (27:44):
Yeah, one of seven, and I think that's just his
regular season from fifty plus. He missed another fifty yarder
against Washington. Obviously, both of these teams can be aggressive
on fourth down at times. I mean, obviously we know
what the Eagles usually do, and then we saw Andy
Reid go for fourth and one on his own thirty five,
So I think he knows when to turn up the aggression.
Knob and I don't anticipate a lot of long kicks
(28:06):
in this game, and even if they happen, I think
it's maybe fifty to fifty whether they even go in.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
Yeah, that's I mean, that's entirely the cap for me.
Both teams in the top third in terms of fourth
down conversion or not conversion fourth down go correctness. According
to RB's DM, they're going to be going for it.
It's going to be high leverage. Are they going to
trust these kickers that haven't made long kicks even though
it is indoors? So yeah, I'm very much on the
(28:33):
under in this game, and I anticipate myself screaming when
one of these idiots makes a forty nine yarder?
Speaker 2 (28:41):
So can I piggyback off this one?
Speaker 3 (28:43):
Really?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Feah, go for it.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
I found another one. We didn't talk about this the
other day, but I found it for my show with
Matt Brown the other day. Another fun one. I think
this was alongside along the lines of what Donnie thing.
If people want a fun swat, I think this is
a fun sweat. Over two and a half fourth conversions
is plus one twenty on DK minus everywhere else like
(29:05):
fanduels that like minus one oh six on over two
and a half, DK's got plus one twenty Based on
regular season numbers, we should be looking at about one
and a half, but we know that the aggression is
going to be way higher in the Super Bowl when
it's do or die, and the Eagles will get at
least one or two free VI's probably with the push play,
and then all you need is somebody to be down
(29:29):
and they're gonna be going for fourth downs in the
fourth quarter. So I like over two and a half
here at plus one twenty a fair amount.
Speaker 1 (29:38):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
Another thing is like every fourth down these teams face
is like pretty likely to be short because of what
we were talking about, the way these teams stay ahead
of the six. These teams are not going to be
in fourth and ten very often. It's going to be
fourth and five or less.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
If this is I wish this is the number I had,
and I'm positive the Eagles or top of the league
in this. If you look at running plays on third down,
because these teams know they're playing four down football, both
of these teams are likely to be amongst the league
leaders in third down rushing plays because they're smart and
they know they're playing four down football, which creates these
(30:15):
fourth and short opportunities where well.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
The Chiefs won't run, but they'll throw. Yeah, they'll throw.
Speaker 1 (30:22):
Yeah, they'll throw a two yard girls through the Hollywood because.
Speaker 2 (30:25):
They know that guy's going to be open because the
defense is trying to guard all the people that are
past the six.
Speaker 1 (30:30):
Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely, all right. DP has one that
I absolutely love. He's going into into every drooler who's
going into this weekend. It's Saquon's birthday, Saquon MVP sequon
this Squon that somehow this guy finished third in MVP
(30:52):
voting DPS going face first into the storm and betting
no touchdown for Markley.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
Yeah, let's go plus one sixty five. I also looked
at no touchdown for Jalen Hurts. Now I found that
I think even money is what I found. But my
issue there is I want the overs on all of
Jalen Hurts is rushing. So if that ultimately does result
in a touchdown on one of those plays, I don't
want to like be really annoyed with myself there. So
I'll just back off that one. I'll dive into the
(31:22):
Barkley one. I wanted to find some sort of way
to fade Saquon Barkley. The guy is a supreme talent. Yes,
he's freaking awesome. He's their entire offense, YadA YadA, YadA whatever.
I think that the Chiefs are gonna probably scheme against
him at least first and foremost. I mean, so yeah,
I just like no TD. I mean, there's plenty of
(31:43):
opportunities where Hurts can throw the ball to one of
those weapons, also Hurts doing a tush push or Hurts
running it in an etc. Like just I think that
it wouldn't be a shock to me if he doesn't score,
you know. But also, like you said, Rich, it's it's
just fun to go against the grain guy standing alone
in the corner, and then you're right at the end
of the day, all these all these droolers. I mean,
(32:05):
I saw one tweet this this week. It was like,
why don't we just put all of our tax dollars
on Jalen Hurts minus one twenty and we'll get out
of the deficit. And I was like, Okay, now I
gotta like, now I gotta find the opposite side. If
that's the mentality of people out there, we got it.
Speaker 3 (32:21):
We gotta go in right.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
So I've got one absolute punt and then floors open
if you guys have have any more. And this has
actually moved mo when I when I when I said
it on the Bad Lunch Show, it was one hundred
and ten to one. It's now one hundred and forty
to one. My guy, Grant cal Katerra first touchdown. This
is on FanDuel. This dude is playing forty percent of
(32:45):
the snaps. I mentioned his name earlier. He's basically a
pure blocking tight end. If he catches a ball in
a game, it's an absolute miracle. Okay, but you're telling
me if this guy's gonna be on the field forty
percent of the time and it's the absolute kitchen sync
game guy to have it, you're telling me this one
out of one hundred and forty times, they're not going
to run the tight end release with this guy in
(33:06):
the red zone and he's gonna score a touchdown. So
obviously love that. And then if you're going to take
an absolute punt on one of these, I always take
a share of my stake. So if you're going to
do one unit on this, I always take a quarter
unit and put it on first touchdown, two touchdowns, because
that's the absolute spin up. That market is only available
(33:27):
on DraftKings. They are not listing two touchdowns for Grant
Calcutear on vandal that market is only on DraftKings. That's
five hundred and fifty to one if Grant Calcaterra wins
scores two touchdowns, So I doubt you're even getting five
fifty to one on Calcuata to win MVP, which this
is the only scenario with which he can win MVP
is him scoring multiple whatever two yard touchdowns. So this
(33:50):
is a super duper absolute punt. Have your fun something, Calcutear.
If this guy scores first, I want my Twitter mansions
to be on fire because because people have cast big tickets.
Anything else, O DP, you got one more?
Speaker 3 (34:08):
Yeah hunt anytime TD.
Speaker 4 (34:10):
I mean to me, he's there in a lot of
ways there tush push guy if I want to call
him that, Like like they don't do the tush push
thing with with mahomes, Like it's like they're petrified since
he got hurt, which I I I don't. I still
don't understand that. I just don't. It was like one
freak injury and you're gonna deny the fact then never
(34:32):
like never again. I mean, it's just it's so weird
to me, especially now you want to deny him.
Speaker 3 (34:37):
From doing that.
Speaker 4 (34:38):
In Week eight, against the freaking Bengals. I don't give
a shit, do whatever you want, but when it's win
or go home every single week, I mean, who cares?
Like I mean, risk it what? Like it was such
a freak injury. I feel like I feel like they
they're like, oh, yeah, if once he does it, he's
just gonna, you know, his kneecap is just gonna fly
to the side, Like no, that's not how this works. Okay,
it's not how it works. So yeah, I mean they
they use Hunt all the time and short yards he
(35:00):
produces very, very well, so you know, why not if
they get close to the end zone, I think they're
just going to hand it off to him. I think
he's preferred more so than Pacheco in a lot of
these situations. You get plus one fifty on this, so yeah,
I like it.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
Yeah, post injury, Pacheco has not been able to crack
that thirty, like thirty percent rush share.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
Well, Yeah, Donnie made a very I think sharp pick here.
When I wrote up the Chiefs touchdowns for the lines,
I thought Kareem Hunt was the best value on the
board at plus one forty or so. I just think,
like Donnie said, he's the clear preferred short yardage option.
So uh, you know the Eagles like to play light boxes.
(35:39):
I think that changes maybe in the red zone, but
he'll get at least a few cracks, I'm pretty sure.
So plus one forty I just think is a bit
too high. I want to follow up on your backup
tight end play and go for some Noah Gray over here.
I think they're still in eleven and a half. It's
starting to go up. I think most places have gone
(36:01):
up to twelve and a half. Last time I looked,
which was yesterday, DK still had eleven and a half
minus one thirteen. He's still playing more than forty percent,
right around fifty percent of the snaps. We know that
the Eagles are going to leave short and middle open generally,
and that is the only place Noah Gray runs routes.
(36:22):
So I think he gets at least a couple catches.
I think we're getting a by low price here because
he's basically done nothing in the playoffs. He had three
targets across the first two games. They were all against Houston.
One thing I noticed as well, when I was looking
up formation tendencies, the Eagles are actually quite a bit
weaker facing twelve personnel than eleven where they are elite
(36:44):
this year. Presumably the chiefs staff is well aware of
this and will attack with a heavy dose of twelve.
So I don't mind also being a little bit aggressive
here with Noah Gray and going for you can get
plus by fifty to score. That was my their tout
on the touchdown markets. I think that's okay as well.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
Our guy Steven Andres in the discord has one hundred
and it was one hundred and eighty one ticket on
uh Noah gros So fingers crossed Mahomes bananas peppers. I
have this one too, by the way, I have no
Gray over eleven and a half. I mean part of
this is if they key in on Kelsey. I mean,
(37:27):
Mahomes trusts Gray. He's trusted them before in big spots,
so why why not? Right, go back to the Carolina.
They're back to the Carolina game, absolute desperation mode, trailing
against a bad team on the road. Noah Gray was
the guy right like, this is the thing that happened.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
He scored more touchdowns than Travis Kelcey this year.
Speaker 4 (37:47):
Yeah, I mean Noah Gray's and he's he's not someone
who it's not like this is a new person for
this team, you know, to come alongside Traws, and he's
been there for a while. He has that rapport with
Mahomes like it's it's the whole thing, like it. If
he and you need it in the Super Bowl, then
he's going to go to his guy.
Speaker 2 (38:04):
I've never seen Noah Gray break a tackle, I don't think,
and I've also don't think I've ever seen him drop
a ball. So what I can tell you is that
if he catches it, it's going to be for a
round seven yards and he will be quickly tackled and
we will be onto the next play. So we probably
need to catches.
Speaker 1 (38:19):
Here anything else. The other one I'm interested is p
Rhine over seven and a half receiving yards. This has been,
This has moved. I first saw it at minus one
oh three, it's now minus one fifteen. You're basically betting
on some Ajpuran catching a pass right. His average is
above ten in terms of yards per reception. He's very
(38:42):
much a schemed player. He only gets about ten percent
of the snaps at running back, so he's not going
to see the field a ton, But if they scheme
a play.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
He pretty much only plays on third and long, like
that's pretty much when he plays.
Speaker 1 (38:56):
Yeah, and you talk about Noah great Now being involved.
Samaja Pirri didn't have a catch until one minute left
in the game last week in the entire playoffs, so
he went one hundred and nineteen minutes without catching a
ball in the playoffs. Spot to seal the game in
the AFC, they went to sma j Pirron and he
had a seventeen yard play. So you're basically your You're
(39:16):
essentially betting on Peron having a catch. But the reception
markets are all lined at minus, are all lined at
one and a half, and the overs like insane, and
I think just betting the yards is the best way
to go anything else before we get at it on
Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
Yeah, another fun one go teeth under four and a
half rushers plus one oh five on DK. I'm praying
this is still there. It has not moved all week
when I looked at it, So it's finally time for
me to go get some money down on this. This
number is minus at some other places. Number one, it's
it's not even one hundred percent certain Xavier Worthy gets
(39:56):
a rush, So I mean it's likely, but it's not certain,
so Worthy Mahomes and two running backs gets the Chiefs
to four. And I have no idea who the market
is expecting to be the fifth ball carrier here.
Speaker 4 (40:10):
Because isn't it isn't it Worthy or Kelsey?
Speaker 3 (40:14):
Like, it's not both?
Speaker 2 (40:15):
That's that's what I like.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
Why would it ever be both?
Speaker 2 (40:18):
I don't remember the last time a tight end took
a snap for the Chiefs. It's it's been some time.
Only two other players on the team besides those four
that have more than five carries, which is Nicole Hardman
by the way, so that's not even a bar that
matters because he's not on the team for this game
is Perine and uh Carson Steel. Carson Steel has been
(40:42):
relegated to special teams and pe Ine very rarely carries
the ball. He hasn't carried the ball since the Steelers game,
which I think that was Christmas. Uh So, yeah, well
he had against Denver, but I'm not even counting that
as a real game. But yeah, he had two carries
against the Feelers and did not sniff a carry in
(41:02):
the last two games. Like Rich was saying, he and
he only plays third and long and the Chiefs are
not probably going to be punting any third and lungs
in a game that is called the Super Bowl, So
I would expect him to have zero carries in this game.
Speaker 1 (41:19):
I think your only fear is the Kelsey touch push.
But do you want to do that? Do you want
to do that against Jalen Carter? And the Chiefs have
so much success on that sprint out in short yardage
where it's basically like a speed option where Mahomes can
throw it to the back or throw it to the
tight end on a hook, and Mahomes always makes the
(41:40):
right decision because he's Patrick Mahomes. And instead of putting
all your eggs in the can we block Jalen carter basket,
You're putting your eggs and Ken Mahomes make the right play,
which is normally a very good bet in those spots.
I mean, I mean, they even ran that same sprint
out play with who is the backup quarterback Chad Henny
had Henny They ran this for napp play and didn't
(42:02):
he didn't. He just bust it up and run for
like a bunch of other dude.
Speaker 2 (42:06):
Yeah, and then he hit Tyreek Hill as well on
the same play for another conversion.
Speaker 1 (42:11):
I think, yeah, they had that deep boat. They have
a deep over on the back if you're really gambling.
But yeah, it's just it's just a play that just works.
So yeah, I think you're only fearos the tight end
toast Bush, which I think we'll fade. Perhaps Super Bowl
l I X again. I think it's gonna be poring. Sorry, guys,
(42:31):
I think I think we're in for like Chiefs twenty No,
because I don't think they're gonna be field deals. It's
gonna be like Chiefs twenty one, Eagles fourteen. Get your
get your unders in, get your unders in, get your
under ladders. And this isn't Bill's Chiefs and won't remember
we were telling people to bet over ninety and that
we're like whatever, whatever the highest number. And I mean
(42:54):
we were right. These teams were scoring multiple touchdowns in
thirteen seconds. But yeah, I think your unders are coming in.
I think your all unders are coming in. And I
think we see Mahomes and Reid do it again. All right, mo,
good luck. I hope you have a stress free Sunday.
Speaker 2 (43:14):
I'm gonna be on the edge of my seat no
matter what happens. So I've put too much. I've put
too much on the line with my mahomes legacy shit talk.
So you know I'm emotionally invested in this.
Speaker 1 (43:27):
I know Donnie'll be in the edge of a seat
because TV twelve is talking throughout the entire game. Unfortunately,
your guy DP. Can we talk about Tom having an
MVP vote when he's an owner of a team?
Speaker 2 (43:40):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (43:41):
He does?
Speaker 2 (43:41):
Going on here? Why is this okay?
Speaker 1 (43:45):
Yeah, it seems like in the categories of conflict of interest,
this is like S tier conflict.
Speaker 4 (43:52):
Well, I think they didn't. They say he was also
like allowed in the meetings this week. I thought the
owner of the Chiefs.
Speaker 2 (43:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
I don't really understand that one. I mean, people, these
league office people talk all the time with each other
like there's just tampering twenty four seven in professional sports leagues,
like just deal with it.
Speaker 3 (44:09):
I don't.
Speaker 1 (44:09):
I'm not. That doesn't rub me the wrong way either.
I think I have an MVP BUTO to I.
Speaker 3 (44:13):
Mean, I don't.
Speaker 4 (44:13):
I personally don't get it from Brady's perspective.
Speaker 3 (44:17):
I mean, you.
Speaker 4 (44:18):
Clearly have enough money that you can get a piece
of an NFL team. You look at the freaking dawn
walking around out there every time you walk onto the
field and clothes clothes and sunglasses and everything that's worth
more than I'll ever be worth in my life. So like,
why do you have to hop into the commentary and
subject yourself to that sort of criticism? Like I don't
understand why you even bother to do this. Go own
(44:38):
the team, like and try and try and like run
the team or like do but do more things that.
Speaker 3 (44:42):
Way and have your quote unquote voice heard in.
Speaker 4 (44:45):
That regard and maybe you know one day you like
get a bigger share and you ultimately own the whole team.
I don't know, but like it just seems weird that
even he wants to do it.
Speaker 1 (44:53):
Maybe maybe he just he's getting as much money as
possible for that FTX lawsuit that's coming. Scumbag, he's got
enough money.
Speaker 2 (45:01):
Okay, I was gonna say, I think part of it
could be. You know how these people are, they're all lunatics.
Tom Brady especially, you know, he's a lunatic. He knows
he sucks at this, well, he used to suck. I
think he's fine now. He was really bad at the
start of the season. I think he's gone a lot better.
And yeah, I think you know, competitive fire in these people.
(45:23):
It doesn't matter what the arena is. If it's literally
a job and he knows people were saying how bad
he was, he probably wants to prove to people he
can do this.
Speaker 3 (45:31):
Sure, I don't doubt that.
Speaker 4 (45:32):
I mean, I'm also I'm personally flabbergasted, like I don't
know anyone. Do people actually tune in because Brady is
commentating like I don't understand you don't, like, you don't
ever hear that, Like even from the most casual of casuals,
you don't hear them be like, oh, I gotta watch
because Brady's on coms Like, I don't I tell him
(45:53):
what You're going to pay him three hundred million.
Speaker 3 (45:55):
Dollars, I don't. It doesn't make any sense to me.
Speaker 1 (45:57):
Well, that's the sneaky thing about the Manning deal too,
is at ESPN is paying Omaha Productions an ungodly amount
of money, but they're really paying them for all the
content that they produce, because if you look at the
ratings for the Manning cast, they're like a tenth of
what the game does on Big ESPN and and ABC.
For your point, like, the mannings are extremely entertaining, extremely likable,
(46:23):
but it just doesn't move the needle whatsoever.
Speaker 4 (46:26):
But at least at least with that one, it's like
it's a totally different product. Yeah, for sure, Like you
could you tune in and you're like, yeah, I'm like,
I watched the Manning cast because I just think it's
more fun, it's more casual, like whatever. It's it's great
for me. Yeah, But like I don't think anyone's tuning
in and just being.
Speaker 3 (46:39):
Like, yeah, Brady, let's go. That's what I'm gonna watch.
Speaker 1 (46:42):
Yeah, if it's if it's Jags Titans, I'll watch the
Manning cast. But if it's a game I care about,
I want uh, I want Buck and Akman on the call.
I just think it it lends a little bit more gravitas,
I will say. Greg Olsen, he's watching this one on
Univision right. He's brushing up on his duelingo and watching
this one on Spanish.
Speaker 2 (46:59):
Right.
Speaker 1 (47:00):
He has no interest in listening Tom Rady call the
Super Bowl. All right, good luck, Mo, good luck with
your bets, Brett, Donnie, good luck Brett too. Good luck
with your bets everybody out there. We're traditionally horrific at
recapping the Super Bowl. I'm stamping right now. We will
(47:21):
do something next week. There will be some recap win
or lose. MO might not be with them, but there
will be some kind of content. And then after that
we always come back for a draft episode and then
after that when Vegas win totals come out. So that
is your off season schedule. But enjoy the game, enjoy
the football, enjoy the halftime, enjoy the food. Be safe,
(47:43):
peace outs,
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