Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And wek once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kolbam,
your host. They thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
We're nearing the end of July. It's the twenty eighth,
twenty twenty five thirty days half September, April, June, November,
so we have thirty one days in July. See how
I figure these little things out. And in case you
(00:33):
don't know, serious talk on everything that affects you markets, economy,
your job, your industry, trade deals, and we will tell
you about them without any bias, agenda, or ulterior motive,
the good and maybe not so good. Don't be mad
(00:55):
about us telling the truth. We'll do scams and shams
and corruption and you name it, we'll cover it. And
if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at Gary k dot com. We'll also
post it on our x feed and if you don't
follow us on next you should just put my name in.
We'll post it on the podcast apps and if you'd
(01:18):
like to email me, just be nice. Don't be like
the guy on Twitter that engaged me and then basically
called me a Jew that wants only cares about money
without using the Jew word. Don't you love people? You
(01:41):
know is Jews? All we care about is money? Right?
How they know? We have lots to cover. The indices uneventful,
but underneath the surface eventful. First few things I do
want to cover. Do you know who Ichi Roe is?
(02:06):
The baseball player Ichi Roe Suzuki went into the Hall
of Fame this weekend. A fantastic player. Go watch his speech.
(02:26):
Go watch his speech. If you would like to find
out the ingredients for success in one speech, just put
into the Hall of Fame. By the way, go check
(02:49):
it out. I was in stopped. I absolutely loved it.
By the way. In Seattle, let's see years in a
row hits two forty two, two oha, two twelve, two
sixty two, two o six, two twenty four, two thirty eight,
two thirteen, two twenty five, two fourteen. Then it looks
(03:11):
like he played then one eighty four, then one seventy eight,
and then he played not total seasons the rest of
the way. He played for the Yankees a few seasons
still better three twenty two, one year, and I believe
he played for Miami for a couple of seasons towards
the end of his career. But besides the point, go
(03:33):
watch the speech. I repeat, if you'd like to know
the ingredients to success or being success, which there's no
guarantees by watching a speech, but if you'd like to
be inspired, if you'd like to learn about somebody's mentality,
(03:56):
go check it out. Uh that's number one. Number two,
So a few things. As you know, we have absolutely
no bias whatsoever, Absolutely no bias. Do you remember when
Janet Yellen called for a world tax and we ripped
(04:20):
the stuffings out of her on that a world tax?
The President Trump has said he's considering a world tariff
of fifteen to twenty percent. So let me just rip
(04:40):
the stuffings out of that too, fair enough. You all
guys emailed me on Janet yelling pissed off and mad
at her, either pissed off and mad at Trump for
considering a world tariff of fifteen to twenty percent, which
is a tax, by the way, we're about to compliment
(05:02):
him to anyway, I had to let you know that
but he did a European Union deal. A deal has
been cut, and I'm not going to get into the
inwards of the deal, but let me tell you what
(05:24):
I like about it. You know, sometimes how something is looked,
how something is thought about, means more than the something.
(05:48):
And without even getting into the inwards of the deal,
because I saw some people on the left picket apart
and people on the right, Oh, it's the greatest thing.
We're not even to get into that. I loved that.
It felt like it looked like it was our president
(06:11):
of this United States was controlling the conversation, leading and
when you have been just coming off of an abysmal
(06:33):
four years of the worst leader we have had, and
god knows how long. What a differential, And you can
say what you want about Trump, and again, the left's
gonna rip them no matter what. The Right's gonna kiss
his butt no matter what. I'm just letting you know
how it looked. It just looked like somebody who was
(06:57):
driving the bus. And when you're president of the United States,
I think that counts for a hell of a lot.
On the European deal, just my thought. Now, let's go
(07:18):
to the Japan deal. We told you there was something
not right with the deal. Japan's not given US five
hundred billion to invest, no way, the President said they were.
(07:44):
It's alone at full market interest rate prices, ninety nine
percent of it. Just letting you know. But you know
what the best thing is, whatever reasoning the president has,
the tariffs are coming down. Except for he's considering a
(08:07):
world tariff. Let's see what happens when that time comes.
We'll talk about it if and when. But the tariffs
have been coming down. As I said to you, and
I believe we're right, what matters most is not trade deals.
(08:28):
We have trade deals with these countries. Just so you know,
the europe tariff is really not even moving. They promised
to do buying, but I got news fea go back
in history about promises of countries to do this, that
and the other thing with US, and usually it's and
this is not on Trump twenty five percent, and they
(08:53):
know Trump is gone in three and a half, not
eight or seven and a half. So less than meet
the eye. But most importantly, and as I have told you,
and I love the fact for whatever the reason is,
the tariffs are coming down, and that is a big help.
(09:13):
And as I have said to you ten percent tariffs.
I don't want. But if you're going to have them
ten percent, fine, Why they're worked around, they're negotiated, They're
(09:35):
easily to cheat on. So I'm gonna call that a
no biggie that we have these tens and fifteens with
these countries. China is up next. It'll be another quote
unquote massive deal. But I don't care. I don't care
(09:57):
if Trump lies about all the deals. What I care
most are those tariffs are coming down to nominal numbers
that again can be worked around, negotiated, or cheated on.
(10:18):
And that's that. That's my take on the whole thing.
I applaud the president for appearances and what a stark
contrast between the corrupt noun skull that is gone and
this up next. Markets lots to say, this is the
one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a
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investment advisory services offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells where you're listening to.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Okay, it could be fun. Investor's Edge the last bastion
of quality programming.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
With Gary called Bomb.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
It doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
By the way, on the europe Deal, you know, I
don't know how long it took whatever, but he was
(12:43):
there with the head of the European Union. And I'm
never impressed with any of those people running the European
Union or the World Organization all that crap. I was
a little impressed with the woman. I was a little
impressed with her, and of course we'll see how it
plays out. So next thing I want to bring up.
(13:04):
We're going into the markets and something that may put
you to sleep at least. My Neil Cavudo used to say,
don't talk about the dollar, We'll lose viewers. So we
never used to really talk about the dollar unless you
really had to. So I just want to let you
(13:27):
know the dollar against other currencies, which had gone through
a bearish phase starting with December of last year, hit
a low. In April, rallied up to the declining fifty
day moving average. What do we tell you bear markets
(13:49):
are when price descends below a descending fifty day moving average,
and after it tagged it to the penny, drop back
down to mid June, but never broke that first low.
In April, rallied back up to the fifty day and
(14:10):
failed again to the day and came back down, undercut
that first low by a smidge. Rallied back up to
the fifty day, came back down and held the lows
for the third time, and now for the first time
(14:35):
with some omphomph. The dollar has rallied back above that
fifty day moving average to the point where you can
draw line under the lows of April, under the lows
of the end of June and of July, and under
the lows of last week. And now the potential of
(15:01):
turning up versus other currencies. A stronger dollar, now, what
could that mean? So I'm gonna put a few things
out to you, because there's no deafinites. We're gonna watch.
Number one, A strong dollar is usually a negative for
(15:21):
commodities because commodities are priced in dollars and if it
costs more to them, and that includes gold, and gold
looked pretty good five days ago, and then the dollar
(15:43):
came in and gold is sank below the fifty day,
but still in a range going back fourteen weeks. Now
that's to be watched. Will gold move higher even with
a stronger dollar. There's always that potential, we'll see. That's
(16:04):
number one. Number two, A stronger dollar potentially hurts our
multinationals doing business over there. Why what I'm going to
do for you right now is do word for word.
Why does a strong dollar hurt are multi nationals? American
(16:32):
products become more expensive for foreign buyers around the world
when the dollar strengthens, potentially reducing demand and market share abroad.
This hurts exports, meaning US and domestic companies, foreign operations.
That's why why do I'm doing this? By the book,
(16:58):
commodities go down when the dollar goes up. Look at me.
A weaker US dollar reduces global purchasing power and raises
import costs. A stronger dollar increases global purchasing power and
(17:21):
raises export costs. It often boom. You get my point.
What is the correlation between commodities and dollar. Commodity prices
move inversely with the US dollar. In commodity price booms,
the US DOLO typically depreciate when commody prices fell, the
value in style tended to rise. That's all. That's all,
(17:44):
so a little bit of definition for you. And we're
going to watch closely. Why because we've had a very
week dollar for about seven months now, and notwithstanding the
tariff crash, because of Trump, the mar it's done pretty
well off of a week dollar. Will the market swoon
(18:06):
if the dollar gets strong. It's a darn good question.
And remember we believe that drop would have never happened
to the tune of what the drop was. If not
for the ridiculous tariffs, we think the S and P
probably would have hit a low at around fifty seven
(18:29):
fifty and never went down to forty eight to thirty five.
We think it would have been a regular correction. And
then Trump decided one hundred and forty five on China,
fifty here, seventy five there Vietnam? What it was that
like a hundred and we have a surplus with them,
I believe. So anyway, that is going to be something
(18:50):
very much to watch. Put that down in your little notebook.
Gary says, there is a chance, not one hundred percent. Technically,
the dollar looks like it's got a good chance of
bottoming and starting to ascend versus other currencies, which means
flying over to Europe will be cheaper, flying over here
(19:12):
from Europe will be more expensive. When I went to
London and the boy, the pound was expensive versus a
couple of years back. So I wanted to start with
the dollar because potential for cause and effect potential. Next
the AI semiconductor trade, all I can tell you. And
(19:36):
Vidia finished it another high today, Broadcom finished it another high.
AMD finished at another relative high, not the high kind
of sort of. Those are the three arm close, but
they report in two days. And oh, Taiwan Semi was
(19:59):
down today after getting near the highs, but there was
some news on them, but still in pretty good shape.
So we're just letting you know. The artificial intelligence semiconductor
trade damn good this second, and I must tell you
(20:19):
better than I thought it would be. Remember what I
said about Nvidia the breakout, that we did not think
it would be nearly as good as the one we
had January eighth of twenty twenty four, because how much
bigger the company is. Well, it broke out at one
fifty three, it's one seventy six. Four weeks later, you
(20:44):
added up up next more in the markets and whatever else.
I'm Gary, this is the one only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
You're listening to.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
America is talking investors Edge.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
He's gotta be beat with the crowd.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Is just on his feet.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
Here, said a boy with Gary called Bob.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
Come highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you talk to.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
Him, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
You see, you're all professional wrestling fans, aren't you. I
got dozens of of contacts and reactions on Hulk Hogan.
Terry Boley is passing big time. Yeah, we knew you
guys love professional wrestling. Okay, so we did the dollar.
(22:13):
We don't know the repercussions yet, but today the dollar
affected gold came down. I think it affected the financials
a wee bit, but not much affected the commodities. Coal
and steel and copper and aluminum came in. And it's
(22:33):
something to watch. And if you want to watch it,
go look at the up and you will note you
can draw a line under April, a line under June
July right at the beginnd, in the beginning and last
week and now potentially turning up. If you want to
look at the other way, go look at the FXE
(22:53):
that would be the euro. Go look at the FXB
that would be the pound that is already busting down,
darn it, right after I leave London. Go look at
the end fx Y, and that's been breaking down for
(23:14):
a while. Go look at the Australian dollar, which is FXA.
You get the point. And again we're gonna watch cause
and effect because currencies matter, especially when they make big moves,
which was by the way, January till the recent lows
(23:39):
and again we don't usually talk the dollar, but we
do think it's of note at this juncture. Next the VIX.
We don't usually talk the VIX very much. That is
the volatility index when things are comple place, and it's
(24:00):
very low. When the things go ape crap that's very high,
like liberation crash, the tariff crash and the like, will
let you know it's down to very very very complacent,
(24:25):
very very and even a correction to the upside probably
brings the market in some That's all. I'm not going
to say anything more than that the S and P
and the NASDAK and the Nasdaq one hundred have rowed
(24:47):
up not the fifty day but the twenty one day
since April twenty third, with not one close below the
twenty one day. Now, the explanation of the twenty one
versus the fifty, well, the twenty one means you're stronger
because you are only using the last twenty one days.
(25:11):
Add up the closes, divide by twenty one. You come
out with a smooth out number versus the other, which
is the fifty day. So it is going to be slower.
Will absolutely positively be watching that. But also no, the influence.
(25:34):
I think right now, eight to ten names make up
fifty some odd percent of the Nasdaq one hundred eight
names make up like thirty some odd percent of the
S and P. And guess which names those are. Oh
and by the way, Apple's been weak, and that I
believe is number two right now, maybe still number one,
(25:59):
So we'll be watching that. Also, watch the vis symbol VIX.
There's another one, the vx N. And again it just
measures complacency versus people crapping in their pants. When that's occurring,
(26:21):
it goes straight up rocket ship. Dow was down sixty
four today. The S and P was up one, but
the NASDAK up seventy, Nasdaq one hundred eighty four, the
SOX was up ninety one, and very simply AMD up seven,
(26:41):
Broadcom up foreign change, and Vidia up three and change.
Some of the weaker equipment makers were even up gapped
up on the day. I don't know if the trade
deals is what did it? I really don't care. Leave
no out. The president's all in on AI. He held
(27:03):
the confab last week on that other things I'm noticing.
I'm just gonna give you some symbols.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
O L L I.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
Ali's bargain. What do they do? Oh, they are discounter
that edges into new highs but earnings a whopping three
percent five below. What do they do? Oh, yes, they
are a discounter that edges into new highs. So a
(27:32):
couple of discounters. And I'd like to mention dollar tree
in Dollar general because they're at well dollar trees at
new yearly highs. But I do have to full and
fair disclosure. It topped out in twenty two at one
seventy seven. It's still one fifteen, but it's at yearly high.
(27:53):
So you got some discounters doing the trick. I'll throw
a couple of more retail boot barn, but they report
in three days, so it doesn't matter. Ralph Laurent has
been on the strong side housing. Remember, looks like they're
(28:13):
going through maybe this bottoming process, but interest rates going
up a little bit. They came back down still acting
okay and housing related not bad. No umph yet. But
you got a chance. And I mentioned this on TV today.
If you get the book The Secrets of Profiting and
Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein, he does this
(28:35):
stage analysis. Stage one is the bottoming phase. Maybe the
dollar's doing that. Then you get one A, one B.
One B is late in the bottoming phase. Then you
get two two way two B. Once you get in
two B, you are in the ascending phase, and real
good two ways you're starting it. Maybe the housing and
(28:58):
housing related is trying to get into two Not so
sure you're there yet. Maybe and somehow housing related like
william Sonoma restoration hardware. By the way, restoration hardware is
numbers bah. But group moves are group moves, so a
(29:26):
little bit of that also. But overall, it was an
AI semiconductor day, and a couple of AI stocks also
were on the move. Also the warning shot, I think
this is a good warning shot. Let's see Tuesday after
(29:50):
the close, Corning Merk in the Dow, Procter and Gamble
in the Dow, Royal Caribbean, Spotify, United Health in the Dow.
That's go to be interesting. How about ups is reporting?
How about after the closed Tomorrow booking holdings, the old
price line, Ava's Budget cheesecake factory, loved the Bang Bang
(30:13):
chicken and shrimp, Seagate Tech, Starbucks. I'm still worried about Starbucks.
But we'll see Visa in the Dow. Boeing in the Dow.
How about Wednesday before the open Garman Checkpoint, Software Arc Best,
Harley Davidson, Hershey's you manna old Dominion Freight. How about
(30:38):
Wingstop gotta add that? How about after the closed armholdings
that is an AI Semiconductor, Carvana eBay, which had a
very bad day to day by the way, f five Networks,
LAMB Research, Meta, I don't know why they change a
name Microsoft and is in the Dow Qualcom robin Hood,
(30:59):
Prude Dental, Western Digital, Host Hotels, And how about oh
Ali Baba and all State and Sketchers. How about Thursday
before the open ag Co Goose, that's Canada Goose. How
about Intercontinental Exchange, MasterCard, Roadblocks, Shake Shack, Mascow, Cobourg, Cravis.
(31:27):
How about after the closed Thursday? Ready for this Amazon
and Apple, KLA, ten Core micro Strategy, Roku, LPL Financial
that boot barn I said, warning shot right, hey up
(31:52):
next this, that and the other thing. This is the
one only investor's edge.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
You're listening to.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
What are you waiting for one to ready go? We
can't recall, bob. Uh, there was not much in the
(32:47):
way of earnings this morning, so not much going on. Uh,
just a little bit in the news. Some I'm gonna repeat,
and some might have to bring up. I know you've
been reading in the news about famine in Gaza, Israel
saying every time they drop food in there that Hamas
(33:10):
steals it. Hammas the CNN New York Times says they're
not yet video of them taking all the food and everything.
Just remember, ladies and gentlemen, the media hates Trump, so
it doesn't matter what he does, it's bad. The media
(33:30):
hates Israel. No matter what they do, it's bad. The
media hates democracy. They really do. They've proven it. They
proved it when they covered up for Biden letting ten
million people in. They proved it when they covered it up.
(33:51):
They proved it when they said Kamala Harris was not
the borders are prove it all the time. I don't
know where they come from, what they were taught, what
they believe, because they're all making millions from capitalism and
free speech. But they hate Israel. They'll kiss the ass
(34:16):
of Castro. You remember Castro in Cuba. They glamorize them.
They absolutely glamorized Castro in Cuba. We want you to
remember all this because there are people that believe the media.
(34:40):
They believe them. It's amazing to watch, it's stunning. We
also want to remind you of op eds New York Times.
I was one of Biden's border advisors. Here, here's how
(35:00):
to fix our immigration system. Imagine you hire a baseball
player and he bats one thirty and has fifteen errors
in the first fifteen games. Do you want them to
write an op ed on how to play baseball? Imagine
(35:22):
you go to a doctor with a broken left arm
and he puts a cast on your right arm. Do
you want him to handle you going forward? Yet? The
New York Times let this schmiaz Yoick do that. And
now this how democrats can win on immigration from near
(35:45):
a tandeon. This is a lifeer Democrat and runs this
center for breaking produst, this progress, this leftist whatever that
gets croploads of money. She was a domestic one of
the head domestic policy advises to President Biden, and she's
(36:08):
got an op ed on how to fix immigration while
Trump already fixed immigration. The border shut. Now we disagree
on the vetting part. They got to do better. But
we want to remind you it's a nuthouse out there.
(36:30):
It's an absolute nuthouse. Of reporting, and I want to
make sure you know that they're letting failures tell you
how to fix the things they failed on with a
straight face. The Marxist Party is out this week saying
(36:52):
we need to message better. No, your policy suck. You
can't go into a store, a drug store in New
York City without everything being locked up and security guards
walking you around to pick up toothpaste. They let the
(37:19):
people run in the colleges, threaten Jews and their lives
and their families, and held them so they can't move,
which is still going on. But you know the difference
now people are getting arrested, You're gone a jail. What
(37:40):
a difference law and order. You know, I'm no biggie
on Trump, but damn did we dodge one. Getting rid
of that corrupt sleas Biden and Harris was gonna be worse.
(38:05):
They're telling you how to fix the border when they failed,
while Trump has succeeded and saving lives to boot. The
media has blacked it out. They're not talking about the
border anymore. You know. What they're talking about the people
that are being deported, which, by the way, I don't
(38:28):
agree with all of it, so don't believe me watch
because I got news for you. Twenty twenty eight is
going to be a biggie because they are lining up
some Marxist communists to run the joint. You got one
guy that's probably gonna be the mayor of New York City,
(38:48):
a freaking communist, and they they hate people. Their goal
is to control people. You're just a means to the end.
You're a nobody. They're going to tell you how much, when, where,
(39:08):
how and why, and if you don't like it, go screw.
We want you to remember that. And what they complain
about others is exactly who they are. Control freaks. And
when you have a chance, watch this guy in New
York City. Go look at his speeches and interviews from
(39:30):
the past. You would think you were watching Lenin. And
I hate saying this, I take no joy. But if
this proliferates around the country, forget about it. And I
say this again, I'm no big fan of this president.
(39:53):
I am a big fan of his immigration policy and
few other things, but boy, oh boy, is other things.
We'll save that for tomorrow. That all said, you have
a great evening. Drive carefully, go look at those charts
we talked about, and when you get home. Do like
we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.
(40:13):
Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.
You'll feel better. I promise they will be well until tomorrow.
Peace out, all good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Caultbom on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And wek once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kolbam,
your host. They thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen, happy that you are listening.
We're nearing the end of July. It's the twenty eighth,
twenty twenty five thirty days half September, April, June, November,
so we have thirty one days in July. See how
I figure these little things out. And in case you
(00:33):
don't know, serious talk on everything that affects you markets, economy,
your job, your industry, trade deals, and we will tell
you about them without any bias, agenda, or ulterior motive,
the good and maybe not so good. Don't be mad
(00:55):
about us telling the truth. We'll do scams and shams
and corruption and you name it, we'll cover it. And
if you do not get this radio show in your city,
we'll post it at Gary k dot com. We'll also
post it on our x feed and if you don't
follow us on next you should just put my name in.
We'll post it on the podcast apps and if you'd
(01:18):
like to email me, just be nice. Don't be like
the guy on Twitter that engaged me and then basically
called me a Jew that wants only cares about money
without using the Jew word. Don't you love people? You
(01:41):
know is Jews? All we care about is money? Right?
How they know? We have lots to cover. The indices uneventful,
but underneath the surface eventful. First few things I do
want to cover. Do you know who Ichi Roe is?
(02:06):
The baseball player Ichi Roe Suzuki went into the Hall
of Fame this weekend. A fantastic player. Go watch his speech.
(02:26):
Go watch his speech. If you would like to find
out the ingredients for success in one speech, just put
into the Hall of Fame. By the way, go check
(02:49):
it out. I was in stopped. I absolutely loved it.
By the way. In Seattle, let's see years in a
row hits two forty two, two oha, two twelve, two
sixty two, two o six, two twenty four, two thirty eight,
two thirteen, two twenty five, two fourteen. Then it looks
(03:11):
like he played then one eighty four, then one seventy eight,
and then he played not total seasons the rest of
the way. He played for the Yankees a few seasons
still better three twenty two, one year, and I believe
he played for Miami for a couple of seasons towards
the end of his career. But besides the point, go
(03:33):
watch the speech. I repeat, if you'd like to know
the ingredients to success or being success, which there's no
guarantees by watching a speech, but if you'd like to
be inspired, if you'd like to learn about somebody's mentality,
(03:56):
go check it out. Uh that's number one. Number two,
So a few things. As you know, we have absolutely
no bias whatsoever, Absolutely no bias. Do you remember when
Janet Yellen called for a world tax and we ripped
(04:20):
the stuffings out of her on that a world tax?
The President Trump has said he's considering a world tariff
of fifteen to twenty percent. So let me just rip
(04:40):
the stuffings out of that too, fair enough. You all
guys emailed me on Janet yelling pissed off and mad
at her, either pissed off and mad at Trump for
considering a world tariff of fifteen to twenty percent, which
is a tax, by the way, we're about to compliment
(05:02):
him to anyway, I had to let you know that
but he did a European Union deal. A deal has
been cut, and I'm not going to get into the
inwards of the deal, but let me tell you what
(05:24):
I like about it. You know, sometimes how something is looked,
how something is thought about, means more than the something.
(05:48):
And without even getting into the inwards of the deal,
because I saw some people on the left picket apart
and people on the right, Oh, it's the greatest thing.
We're not even to get into that. I loved that.
It felt like it looked like it was our president
(06:11):
of this United States was controlling the conversation, leading and
when you have been just coming off of an abysmal
(06:33):
four years of the worst leader we have had, and
god knows how long. What a differential, And you can
say what you want about Trump, and again, the left's
gonna rip them no matter what. The Right's gonna kiss
his butt no matter what. I'm just letting you know
how it looked. It just looked like somebody who was
(06:57):
driving the bus. And when you're president of the United States,
I think that counts for a hell of a lot.
On the European deal, just my thought. Now, let's go
(07:18):
to the Japan deal. We told you there was something
not right with the deal. Japan's not given US five
hundred billion to invest, no way, the President said they were.
(07:44):
It's alone at full market interest rate prices, ninety nine
percent of it. Just letting you know. But you know
what the best thing is, whatever reasoning the president has,
the tariffs are coming down. Except for he's considering a
(08:07):
world tariff. Let's see what happens when that time comes.
We'll talk about it if and when. But the tariffs
have been coming down. As I said to you, and
I believe we're right, what matters most is not trade deals.
(08:28):
We have trade deals with these countries. Just so you know,
the europe tariff is really not even moving. They promised
to do buying, but I got news fea go back
in history about promises of countries to do this, that
and the other thing with US, and usually it's and
this is not on Trump twenty five percent, and they
(08:53):
know Trump is gone in three and a half, not
eight or seven and a half. So less than meet
the eye. But most importantly, and as I have told you,
and I love the fact for whatever the reason is,
the tariffs are coming down, and that is a big help.
(09:13):
And as I have said to you ten percent tariffs.
I don't want. But if you're going to have them
ten percent, fine, Why they're worked around, they're negotiated, They're
(09:35):
easily to cheat on. So I'm gonna call that a
no biggie that we have these tens and fifteens with
these countries. China is up next. It'll be another quote
unquote massive deal. But I don't care. I don't care
(09:57):
if Trump lies about all the deals. What I care
most are those tariffs are coming down to nominal numbers
that again can be worked around, negotiated, or cheated on.
(10:18):
And that's that. That's my take on the whole thing.
I applaud the president for appearances and what a stark
contrast between the corrupt noun skull that is gone and
this up next. Markets lots to say, this is the
one only Investor's Edge. Hi, I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a
(11:04):
nationally syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome
radio people. We manage investors' money for a living, specializing
in fee based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just
a fee on the assets that's managed. We also provide
a full range of personalized services including retirement planning, fixed
income and educational needs, all to assist you in achieving
(11:26):
your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals have the same needs,
will carefully evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper
investment strategy. If your current approach to investing is not
getting you to where you would like to be, call
us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.
The number to call is eight eight eight four two
two five five five nine. That's eight eight eight four
(11:49):
two two five to five five nine. That's eight eight
eight four two two five to five, five to nine
investment advisory services offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells where you're listening to.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Okay, it could be fun. Investor's Edge the last bastion
of quality programming.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
With Gary called Bomb.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
It doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
By the way, on the europe Deal, you know, I
don't know how long it took whatever, but he was
(12:43):
there with the head of the European Union. And I'm
never impressed with any of those people running the European
Union or the World Organization all that crap. I was
a little impressed with the woman. I was a little
impressed with her, and of course we'll see how it
plays out. So next thing I want to bring up.
(13:04):
We're going into the markets and something that may put
you to sleep at least. My Neil Cavudo used to say,
don't talk about the dollar, We'll lose viewers. So we
never used to really talk about the dollar unless you
really had to. So I just want to let you
(13:27):
know the dollar against other currencies, which had gone through
a bearish phase starting with December of last year, hit
a low. In April, rallied up to the declining fifty
day moving average. What do we tell you bear markets
(13:49):
are when price descends below a descending fifty day moving average,
and after it tagged it to the penny, drop back
down to mid June, but never broke that first low.
In April, rallied back up to the fifty day and
(14:10):
failed again to the day and came back down, undercut
that first low by a smidge. Rallied back up to
the fifty day, came back down and held the lows
for the third time, and now for the first time
(14:35):
with some omphomph. The dollar has rallied back above that
fifty day moving average to the point where you can
draw line under the lows of April, under the lows
of the end of June and of July, and under
the lows of last week. And now the potential of
(15:01):
turning up versus other currencies. A stronger dollar, now, what
could that mean? So I'm gonna put a few things
out to you, because there's no deafinites. We're gonna watch.
Number one, A strong dollar is usually a negative for
(15:21):
commodities because commodities are priced in dollars and if it
costs more to them, and that includes gold, and gold
looked pretty good five days ago, and then the dollar
(15:43):
came in and gold is sank below the fifty day,
but still in a range going back fourteen weeks. Now
that's to be watched. Will gold move higher even with
a stronger dollar. There's always that potential, we'll see. That's
(16:04):
number one. Number two, A stronger dollar potentially hurts our
multinationals doing business over there. Why what I'm going to
do for you right now is do word for word.
Why does a strong dollar hurt are multi nationals? American
(16:32):
products become more expensive for foreign buyers around the world
when the dollar strengthens, potentially reducing demand and market share abroad.
This hurts exports, meaning US and domestic companies, foreign operations.
That's why why do I'm doing this? By the book,
(16:58):
commodities go down when the dollar goes up. Look at me.
A weaker US dollar reduces global purchasing power and raises
import costs. A stronger dollar increases global purchasing power and
(17:21):
raises export costs. It often boom. You get my point.
What is the correlation between commodities and dollar. Commodity prices
move inversely with the US dollar. In commodity price booms,
the US DOLO typically depreciate when commody prices fell, the
value in style tended to rise. That's all. That's all,
(17:44):
so a little bit of definition for you. And we're
going to watch closely. Why because we've had a very
week dollar for about seven months now, and notwithstanding the
tariff crash, because of Trump, the mar it's done pretty
well off of a week dollar. Will the market swoon
(18:06):
if the dollar gets strong. It's a darn good question.
And remember we believe that drop would have never happened
to the tune of what the drop was. If not
for the ridiculous tariffs, we think the S and P
probably would have hit a low at around fifty seven
(18:29):
fifty and never went down to forty eight to thirty five.
We think it would have been a regular correction. And
then Trump decided one hundred and forty five on China,
fifty here, seventy five there Vietnam? What it was that
like a hundred and we have a surplus with them,
I believe. So anyway, that is going to be something
(18:50):
very much to watch. Put that down in your little notebook.
Gary says, there is a chance, not one hundred percent. Technically,
the dollar looks like it's got a good chance of
bottoming and starting to ascend versus other currencies, which means
flying over to Europe will be cheaper, flying over here
(19:12):
from Europe will be more expensive. When I went to
London and the boy, the pound was expensive versus a
couple of years back. So I wanted to start with
the dollar because potential for cause and effect potential. Next
the AI semiconductor trade, all I can tell you. And
(19:36):
Vidia finished it another high today, Broadcom finished it another high.
AMD finished at another relative high, not the high kind
of sort of. Those are the three arm close, but
they report in two days. And oh, Taiwan Semi was
(19:59):
down today after getting near the highs, but there was
some news on them, but still in pretty good shape.
So we're just letting you know. The artificial intelligence semiconductor
trade damn good this second, and I must tell you
(20:19):
better than I thought it would be. Remember what I
said about Nvidia the breakout, that we did not think
it would be nearly as good as the one we
had January eighth of twenty twenty four, because how much
bigger the company is. Well, it broke out at one
fifty three, it's one seventy six. Four weeks later, you
(20:44):
added up up next more in the markets and whatever else.
I'm Gary, this is the one only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
You're listening to.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
America is talking investors Edge.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
He's gotta be beat with the crowd.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Is just on his feet.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
Here, said a boy with Gary called Bob.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
Come highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you talk to.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
Him, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
You see, you're all professional wrestling fans, aren't you. I
got dozens of of contacts and reactions on Hulk Hogan.
Terry Boley is passing big time. Yeah, we knew you
guys love professional wrestling. Okay, so we did the dollar.
(22:13):
We don't know the repercussions yet, but today the dollar
affected gold came down. I think it affected the financials
a wee bit, but not much affected the commodities. Coal
and steel and copper and aluminum came in. And it's
(22:33):
something to watch. And if you want to watch it,
go look at the up and you will note you
can draw a line under April, a line under June
July right at the beginnd, in the beginning and last
week and now potentially turning up. If you want to
look at the other way, go look at the FXE
(22:53):
that would be the euro. Go look at the FXB
that would be the pound that is already busting down,
darn it, right after I leave London. Go look at
the end fx Y, and that's been breaking down for
(23:14):
a while. Go look at the Australian dollar, which is FXA.
You get the point. And again we're gonna watch cause
and effect because currencies matter, especially when they make big moves,
which was by the way, January till the recent lows
(23:39):
and again we don't usually talk the dollar, but we
do think it's of note at this juncture. Next the VIX.
We don't usually talk the VIX very much. That is
the volatility index when things are comple place, and it's
(24:00):
very low. When the things go ape crap that's very high,
like liberation crash, the tariff crash and the like, will
let you know it's down to very very very complacent,
(24:25):
very very and even a correction to the upside probably
brings the market in some That's all. I'm not going
to say anything more than that the S and P
and the NASDAK and the Nasdaq one hundred have rowed
(24:47):
up not the fifty day but the twenty one day
since April twenty third, with not one close below the
twenty one day. Now, the explanation of the twenty one
versus the fifty, well, the twenty one means you're stronger
because you are only using the last twenty one days.
(25:11):
Add up the closes, divide by twenty one. You come
out with a smooth out number versus the other, which
is the fifty day. So it is going to be slower.
Will absolutely positively be watching that. But also no, the influence.
(25:34):
I think right now, eight to ten names make up
fifty some odd percent of the Nasdaq one hundred eight
names make up like thirty some odd percent of the
S and P. And guess which names those are. Oh
and by the way, Apple's been weak, and that I
believe is number two right now, maybe still number one,
(25:59):
So we'll be watching that. Also, watch the vis symbol VIX.
There's another one, the vx N. And again it just
measures complacency versus people crapping in their pants. When that's occurring,
(26:21):
it goes straight up rocket ship. Dow was down sixty
four today. The S and P was up one, but
the NASDAK up seventy, Nasdaq one hundred eighty four, the
SOX was up ninety one, and very simply AMD up seven,
(26:41):
Broadcom up foreign change, and Vidia up three and change.
Some of the weaker equipment makers were even up gapped
up on the day. I don't know if the trade
deals is what did it? I really don't care. Leave
no out. The president's all in on AI. He held
(27:03):
the confab last week on that other things I'm noticing.
I'm just gonna give you some symbols.
Speaker 3 (27:09):
O L L I.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
Ali's bargain. What do they do? Oh, they are discounter
that edges into new highs but earnings a whopping three
percent five below. What do they do? Oh, yes, they
are a discounter that edges into new highs. So a
(27:32):
couple of discounters. And I'd like to mention dollar tree
in Dollar general because they're at well dollar trees at
new yearly highs. But I do have to full and
fair disclosure. It topped out in twenty two at one
seventy seven. It's still one fifteen, but it's at yearly high.
(27:53):
So you got some discounters doing the trick. I'll throw
a couple of more retail boot barn, but they report
in three days, so it doesn't matter. Ralph Laurent has
been on the strong side housing. Remember, looks like they're
(28:13):
going through maybe this bottoming process, but interest rates going
up a little bit. They came back down still acting
okay and housing related not bad. No umph yet. But
you got a chance. And I mentioned this on TV today.
If you get the book The Secrets of Profiting and
Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein, he does this
(28:35):
stage analysis. Stage one is the bottoming phase. Maybe the
dollar's doing that. Then you get one A, one B.
One B is late in the bottoming phase. Then you
get two two way two B. Once you get in
two B, you are in the ascending phase, and real
good two ways you're starting it. Maybe the housing and
(28:58):
housing related is trying to get into two Not so
sure you're there yet. Maybe and somehow housing related like
william Sonoma restoration hardware. By the way, restoration hardware is
numbers bah. But group moves are group moves, so a
(29:26):
little bit of that also. But overall, it was an
AI semiconductor day, and a couple of AI stocks also
were on the move. Also the warning shot, I think
this is a good warning shot. Let's see Tuesday after
(29:50):
the close, Corning Merk in the Dow, Procter and Gamble
in the Dow, Royal Caribbean, Spotify, United Health in the Dow.
That's go to be interesting. How about ups is reporting?
How about after the closed Tomorrow booking holdings, the old
price line, Ava's Budget cheesecake factory, loved the Bang Bang
(30:13):
chicken and shrimp, Seagate Tech, Starbucks. I'm still worried about Starbucks.
But we'll see Visa in the Dow. Boeing in the Dow.
How about Wednesday before the open Garman Checkpoint, Software Arc Best,
Harley Davidson, Hershey's you manna old Dominion Freight. How about
(30:38):
Wingstop gotta add that? How about after the closed armholdings
that is an AI Semiconductor, Carvana eBay, which had a
very bad day to day by the way, f five Networks,
LAMB Research, Meta, I don't know why they change a
name Microsoft and is in the Dow Qualcom robin Hood,
(30:59):
Prude Dental, Western Digital, Host Hotels, And how about oh
Ali Baba and all State and Sketchers. How about Thursday
before the open ag Co Goose, that's Canada Goose. How
about Intercontinental Exchange, MasterCard, Roadblocks, Shake Shack, Mascow, Cobourg, Cravis.
(31:27):
How about after the closed Thursday? Ready for this Amazon
and Apple, KLA, ten Core micro Strategy, Roku, LPL Financial
that boot barn I said, warning shot right, hey up
(31:52):
next this, that and the other thing. This is the
one only investor's edge.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
You're listening to.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
What are you waiting for one to ready go? We
can't recall, bob. Uh, there was not much in the
(32:47):
way of earnings this morning, so not much going on. Uh,
just a little bit in the news. Some I'm gonna repeat,
and some might have to bring up. I know you've
been reading in the news about famine in Gaza, Israel
saying every time they drop food in there that Hamas
(33:10):
steals it. Hammas the CNN New York Times says they're
not yet video of them taking all the food and everything.
Just remember, ladies and gentlemen, the media hates Trump, so
it doesn't matter what he does, it's bad. The media
(33:30):
hates Israel. No matter what they do, it's bad. The
media hates democracy. They really do. They've proven it. They
proved it when they covered up for Biden letting ten
million people in. They proved it when they covered it up.
(33:51):
They proved it when they said Kamala Harris was not
the borders are prove it all the time. I don't
know where they come from, what they were taught, what
they believe, because they're all making millions from capitalism and
free speech. But they hate Israel. They'll kiss the ass
(34:16):
of Castro. You remember Castro in Cuba. They glamorize them.
They absolutely glamorized Castro in Cuba. We want you to
remember all this because there are people that believe the media.
(34:40):
They believe them. It's amazing to watch, it's stunning. We
also want to remind you of op eds New York Times.
I was one of Biden's border advisors. Here, here's how
(35:00):
to fix our immigration system. Imagine you hire a baseball
player and he bats one thirty and has fifteen errors
in the first fifteen games. Do you want them to
write an op ed on how to play baseball? Imagine
(35:22):
you go to a doctor with a broken left arm
and he puts a cast on your right arm. Do
you want him to handle you going forward? Yet? The
New York Times let this schmiaz Yoick do that. And
now this how democrats can win on immigration from near
(35:45):
a tandeon. This is a lifeer Democrat and runs this
center for breaking produst, this progress, this leftist whatever that
gets croploads of money. She was a domestic one of
the head domestic policy advises to President Biden, and she's
(36:08):
got an op ed on how to fix immigration while
Trump already fixed immigration. The border shut. Now we disagree
on the vetting part. They got to do better. But
we want to remind you it's a nuthouse out there.
(36:30):
It's an absolute nuthouse. Of reporting, and I want to
make sure you know that they're letting failures tell you
how to fix the things they failed on with a
straight face. The Marxist Party is out this week saying
(36:52):
we need to message better. No, your policy suck. You
can't go into a store, a drug store in New
York City without everything being locked up and security guards
walking you around to pick up toothpaste. They let the
(37:19):
people run in the colleges, threaten Jews and their lives
and their families, and held them so they can't move,
which is still going on. But you know the difference
now people are getting arrested, You're gone a jail. What
(37:40):
a difference law and order. You know, I'm no biggie
on Trump, but damn did we dodge one. Getting rid
of that corrupt sleas Biden and Harris was gonna be worse.
(38:05):
They're telling you how to fix the border when they failed,
while Trump has succeeded and saving lives to boot. The
media has blacked it out. They're not talking about the
border anymore. You know. What they're talking about the people
that are being deported, which, by the way, I don't
(38:28):
agree with all of it, so don't believe me watch
because I got news for you. Twenty twenty eight is
going to be a biggie because they are lining up
some Marxist communists to run the joint. You got one
guy that's probably gonna be the mayor of New York City,
(38:48):
a freaking communist, and they they hate people. Their goal
is to control people. You're just a means to the end.
You're a nobody. They're going to tell you how much, when, where,
(39:08):
how and why, and if you don't like it, go screw.
We want you to remember that. And what they complain
about others is exactly who they are. Control freaks. And
when you have a chance, watch this guy in New
York City. Go look at his speeches and interviews from
(39:30):
the past. You would think you were watching Lenin. And
I hate saying this, I take no joy. But if
this proliferates around the country, forget about it. And I
say this again, I'm no big fan of this president.
(39:53):
I am a big fan of his immigration policy and
few other things, but boy, oh boy, is other things.
We'll save that for tomorrow. That all said, you have
a great evening. Drive carefully, go look at those charts
we talked about, and when you get home. Do like
we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.
(40:13):
Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.
You'll feel better. I promise they will be well until tomorrow.
Peace out, all good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Caultbom on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
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