Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary kolbaumb
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.
It's Monday, it's August eleventh, that's twenty twenty five. Hope
you had a great weekend as we start the week.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk on
everything that affects you. We do the markets. Oh and
(00:33):
we do the markets, we do the economy, we do
your job, your industry, scam, sham's corruption, insider trading, marijuana what. Yeah,
we're gonna talk marijuana today and much more. And if
you do not get this radio show in your city,
(00:53):
we'll post it at Gary k dot com. We'll us
post it on all the podcast apps as well as
biz tv YouTube. And if you'd like to email us,
just be nice, Just be nice. So just letting you know,
by the way, travel hell this weekend. Yesterday fly you
(01:14):
know at least Jet Blue at nine am emailed me
to tell me my flight's going to be late. At
six pm or five pm. They knew at nine am.
Don't ask me how. And of course the hour turned
into two hours, turn into two and a half. It's
not their fault. Weather up and down the East coast
(01:35):
not good. On the way, they're not good either, But
such as life. Welcome to the world of summertime in
Florida with the thunderstorms. But the most important part of
the equation got there safe. And that's all that really matters. Right,
If you think about it, you're in the up thirty
five thousand feet in a chair in a Thailand old
(01:59):
pill and you're moving, but you don't know you're moving
through the air. Think about that. That's killer. So be
happy when you get there, even though sometimes you're very
very late. Okay, my father, it's not the ninth inning,
(02:22):
it's extra innings. As you know. A couple of months back,
I thought it was over and done. He was in
the hospital with pneumonia. The rabbi came in, the doctor
gave me the look. The next day, then ammonia goes
away and they sent them home the day after. And
he's been pretty good. But to Terry rating, it's gonna
be ninety four in October and you just can't fight inevitable.
(02:45):
But we brought Reese, my grandson, over, and he was
very happy. But it's says I must tell you, And
I've been getting hundreds of emails from all of you
about all this, that you've gone through the same thing.
By the way, my mom last Thanksgiving at the age
(03:07):
of ninety one, and my brother I tried to explain
to him, Hulk Cogan died at seventy one. This one
died at seventy four. This one died at seventy eight.
And he doesn't care. I said, he's going to be
ninety four. He's way past. My brother doesn't want to
hear it. Family, ladies and gentlemen. That's all I can
tell you. When I was there, I was looking through
these little books of pictures, black and white pictures from
(03:30):
nineteen forties, of fifties, something like that. My father tried
out for the Yankees, didn't make it, but almost did.
Great athletes hate seeing him like this. Not easy, not easy.
So I already got the flights back this week. I'm
in Florida Thursday, flyback Thursday. And you know, every time
(03:54):
my brother calls me, I'm like, uh, oh, and I
hate seeing them like this, my father, I hate seeing
them like this. But we're doing the best we can.
We'll keep you up to date, and we appreciate all
your well wishes and all your experiences. Really helps out
(04:17):
to hear what you all have gone through because of age.
All right, let's get away from that, right. I want
to get neck deep into one word, concentration. Neck deep,
(04:42):
as we have stated to you every now and then,
we will simplify life in general for you. And what
do we mean by that? Imagine if there was only
a hundred stocks in the market, and each we're equal
to the next, not one more favorable to another, in
(05:04):
whatever index they are in the market index, And assume
we know what uptrends and down trends are. And assume
one hundred stocks are in an uptrend, but then twenty
five of them flatten out, Well, you still have seventy
five in an up trend, but it's a narrower and
the twenty five flattened out's not hurting anything. What happens
(05:27):
if that twenty five that flattened out start turning down
and another twenty five flatten out, well, the market's a
little more difficult. The index is not going to move
the way it was. The trajectory's going to change from
somewhat ascending to a little flattening out. And then what
happens if fifty stocks are descending and the fifty that
(05:51):
we're ascending flatten out. Well, now you have fifty going down.
Well guess what the market index is going to turn
and the market's going to drop. It's simple as that.
And you're assuming we know what an uptrend and down
trend look like. Well that's how market's top stock by
stock sector bisector. But in this market, it's a lot different, moocho, DIFFERENTII,
(06:16):
whatever how you pronounce it. We have never seen such
concentration ever. We've had the nifty to fifty in the seventies,
we had nineteen ninety nine where the internet and the technology.
We've had many times where we had concentration, but we've
(06:39):
never had seven stocks. When you think about this, the
main the main things people watch of the DOO which
is thirty, but really the S and P five hundred.
Every time I see somebody quote the market, they go
more to the S and P five hundred than the Dow.
These days, seven stocks are almost thirty five percent when
(07:04):
that index moves four hundred and ninety three stocks are
sixty five percent. Think about that. That is what is
known as concentration and influence. And you know what the
seven stocks are. Those same seven stocks are sixty five
(07:27):
percent of the Nasdaq one hundred. But we think it
is more concentrated with the SNP because of how many
stocks there are. And the bottom stock in the S
and P five hundred is like sixty one hundredth of
a percent, and there's a lot of them there. It
tells you that institutions have been selling off everything to
(07:50):
buy in the few And I'm being a little bit
hyperbolic because it's not that bad when I say it,
because it still stocks. Hey, Goldman Sachs is near high.
That's not top ten, that's not top seven. You get
my point. There are other things working. We're just letting
(08:12):
you know we have never seen such a concentration in
the big indices, and we want you to remember that.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
And why.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Not because oh it's these seven. It's because it's a
characteristic that has shown up in quite the few occasions
throughout history. And what we are about here are characteristics
of bull and bear markets. What they look like, how
they act, how they bottom, how they top, how they ascend,
(08:47):
how they descend. And as you know, we follow pretty
much fifteen hundred stocks every day, two hundred sectors, every country,
every commodity, and it still ain't easy. So that big
characteristic is a big juicy motza ball right now that
(09:09):
could have repercussions. Maybe it won't. And what we're gonna
do is give you both sides of it. What's the
possibilities of it turning into much better? What are the
possibilities of an oh moment, we'll go backwards, we'll explain
(09:38):
at the very least, we will continue to avoid the
bad areas we've mentioned recently, how the transports were getting
in bad shape, insurance, auto dealers, the payroll companies, as
well as other areas. Some Dow stocks like Murca, horror show,
(10:04):
some retail apparel like in holy crap, under armor, what
do they do to that stock? While telling you this
is still leading, this is lagging. This is busting down
to the downside off of earnings. This is gapping up
(10:27):
to the upside because of earnings. Up next, we'll get
into it a little bit more. This is the one
only investor's edge, Hi I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a nationally
(11:04):
syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.
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If your current approach to investing is not getting you
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(11:50):
five to five five nine. That's eight eight eight four
two two five to five, five to nine. Investment advisory
services offer through Call Capital Management. It's time to switch
on the integrator units and to get the brain cells working.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You're listening to okay, it's it could be fun.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Investor's Edge the last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called Bob, it doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
And welc once again to Investor's.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Edge, thanks for being with us today. So we're just
letting you know, that's all. We're just letting you know,
(12:54):
same thing I believe we said to you on Friday
and maybe the day's previous. If just an if, if
nothing changes, and as you know, things can change. What
(13:14):
do I mean by that, Well, we're whining and complaining
to how about how the breadth of the market, the
advanced declines is terrible, terrible. We have been telling you
how the NASDAC new yearly highs, the advanced decline line
(13:35):
topped out a year ago and in the last couple
two to three weeks has just been blasted. And that
is how many stocks are advancing versus declining. And what
does that do. Well, the more stocks decline, the more
charts get in worse shape. That's all. So we're just
(13:59):
letting you know, if nothing changes, if the bad stays bad,
if they worsen, which is even worse. There has always
been one hundred percent of the time in eventuality, if
things worsen, if the weak stocks, I'll give you one IBM.
(14:20):
The stock just got hit hard on earnings and it's
now getting blasted. If that continues down, it's just one stock.
But what if we continue to see days where twelve
hundred up twenty eight hundred down, where new yearly lows
are more than new yearly highs, even though the big
indices are near yearly highs. Typically eventuality is they come
(14:48):
and get the stuff that's held up, because it's the
stuff that's held up, and institutions, in their need to
sell more, will tend to go after the stocks that
are sticking up. And in this case, where seven stocks
are sixty almost sixty five of the Nasdaq one hundred
(15:10):
and almost thirty five of the S and P, that
means they own a crapload of these stocks. What do
we tell you of the words over owned, overloved, over leverage,
and when the worm turns, what do they over own
(15:31):
and what do they need to lop some off of
you got it them? And if they do, what does
that mean to the indices that have held up so
well because of those same names? Correct them moondo the
indices start coming in. So we're just letting you know,
first off, I mean, the characteristics are there. That's just
(15:57):
number one. The characteristics are there. But number two, there
could be lead time. What do we mean by that
could take weeks if not more. We've seen that, We've
seen the nifty to fifty roll on for a while.
(16:20):
We've seen big indices keep going for a long while.
They're not pinpoint. We're just letting you know to put
in your file manager right now that you're a handsome
and buff host has given you that concentration and influence
warning shot if nothing changes. And of course we're here
(16:44):
five days a week because if something does change, we'll
let you know. It's our favorite line, We'll let you know.
But today it just things kind of drifted worsened throughout
the day for whatever. Now I hear there's some inflation
numbers this week, okay, which has me pondering. Explain that
(17:10):
in a minute. We're just letting you know the tone
of the market here. And by the way, the Nasdaq
which came in later in the day, Nasdaq one hundred
came in later in the day, still kind of like
the rocks of Gibraltar. Still, so the Dow was down
(17:35):
two hundred week. Caterpillar we even said to you that
looked like Caterpillar top breaking the twenty one day. And
we've also as the stock was moving higher. What wire
we complaining about? How is Caterpillar stock going up with
the last two quarters earnings down over twenty percent and
they were down the prior to quarters. And what do
(17:55):
we always say, Well, we don't make the rules. Salesforce
dot Com a nightmarish big software stock. New yearly lows
for Salesforce dot Com, which is quite amazing, but guess
what they have decelerating numbers? Catam excuse me, IBM another
(18:19):
rough day, down six, Apple pulled back, that's normal, down two.
I have to going straight up off of tariff exemptions.
SMP down sixteen, So not so bad. That's because the
NASDAK NASDAQ one hundred still down sixty four and eighty four.
And I will tell you they were up most of
(18:40):
the day until the three o'clock hour. But you can
just tell that's where the money's still hanging. Tesla was
up eight, Oracle was up three, the others were down,
but and Nvidia down seventy cents, Meta down three. It's
a seven hundred and sixty five dollars stock, Google down
fifty cents, Broad down eighty cents, for down two hundred doo.
(19:04):
That's a tiptoe through the tulips. We'll see if that
continues now. Of interest, those transports just thinking up the joint,
and it's something we're gonna watch closely. The transport's thinking
up the joint. My left screen, which is the NASDAK
(19:27):
more than NASDAK technology names that do not make the
grade or gap down or broke down and not in
shape mostly read with some just kicked in the teeth.
You've heard it into it right. Software down forty two,
HubSpot twenty nine software. I'm noticing where it worked day
(19:51):
down eight software Duo Lingo down twenty nine software. A
lot of software stock acting like the south end of
a northbound jackass. I'm gonna highlight those software stocks tonight
to the peeps because that's gonna be of note. They
(20:13):
already got the software security stocks last week, CrowdStrike, z Scale,
Palo Alto Networks. So we are very wary of software
in it kind of matters. If you look at the
IGV maybe topping out again narrow is all hack up? Next?
(20:41):
What else? And are we gonna whine about anything today?
Of course we are. This is the one on the investor's.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Edge you're listening to. America is talking small investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
He's got the crowd is just on his feet.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Here boy with Gary called Bob.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
He comes highly recommended.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
And walk once again to Investor's edge. M marijuana stocks
was strong. Uh. The President Donald Trump looks like he's
gonna reclassify the drug to be is not so bad
that pisses me off? And I am in hopes his
(21:53):
family has not taken positions in marijuana stuff because if
they'd have, that'll doubly piss me off. Anyway, This some
a symbol called MJ it's an extremee change traded fund,
and that was up twenty seven percent today to thirty
dollars and eighty nine cents. Keep in mind these marijuana
(22:17):
stocks have gone from whatever down to like nothing, but
had a big day to day. How about, uh, let
me see if I can find ones I want to
go through? ACB that's Aurora Cannabis was up sixteen percent
today to five dollars and twenty cents. That hit a
(22:38):
high of fifteen hundred dollars. No, not kidding. How about
CGC canopy Growth that was up fifty three percent today,
Am I right?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:54):
Went to a dollar fifty eight, up fifty five cents
for this because remember they touted you in hit a
high in twenty one. That's twenty twenty one at five
hundred and sixty five dollars. It's a dollar fifty eight today,
but a very strong move in the Canadian marijuana stocks up.
(23:17):
It pisses me off. You got this guy Kennedy that's
telling you everything's bad, everything's bad, and vaccines are bad,
and this is bad, and that is bad, and this
is bad. Don't touch that, and coloring of food, and
this in food, and that in food, and this in food,
and that in food, and this in food.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Don't do this, don't do that.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
Oh, let's reclassify marijuana is not so bad. Notice, mister
logic me is able to explain to you why this
is so moronic and stupid. Have you been watching this
(23:56):
Kennedy guy, his Department of Health and Human Services? Everything
bad for you, just letting you know. And everybody's screwing you.
The food companies are screwing you. The drug company is
are skewer screwing you. The vaccine companies are screwing you.
Everyone is screwing you. They're out to get you. They
want to make you less healthy. They want you to
eat more crap, smoke some weed. You see, Notice how
(24:23):
easily I can explain other people's stupidity and ignorance. You
know when we tell you Al Gore is telling us
we gotta be smart about climate change as he gets
in his private jet and he's worth three hundred million
(24:46):
bucks creating all kinds of climate companies that don't do
crap for nobody. Al Gore or Leo you know DiCaprio
by the way, good actor, no complaints, nothing personal. Gotta
be careful the climate. Take care of the climate, yes,
take care of the climate. Conserve. You should be driving
electric vehicle, not a gas guzzler. As he gets on
(25:08):
his private jet and we see him on a two
hundred foot yacht in the waters of Monaco. You know,
we say that these people up yours go screw, and
we would tell it to their faces. So now we
have the president Robert F. Kennedy and all that marijuana good.
(25:29):
Everything else is bad. And it pisses me off, just
letting you know. Do you know why I say that?
Because I know a lot of people, well, not a lot,
but enough that abuse marijuana and have turned to dust.
Bought a lot of Doritos and macaroni and cheese. By
the way, not me, I'm not talking about me. We
(25:53):
move on. What doesn't piss me off about the President today?
I love, I love, absolutely love his words on Washington, DC,
(26:15):
that he wants to put more people in there and
who cares whether they're the National Guard or not, to
protect the citizens, the lawful citizens. While if you're carjacking,
you're no longer gonna have the no cash bail bull crap.
But you're going and we're gonna hold you, and we're
gonna indict you, and if your peers find you're guilty,
(26:39):
you're gonna do fifteen to twenty and maybe you'll get
out in ten and that maybe, maybe maybe will incentivize
other crooks to not do it anymore. So I immediately, while
he's having this press conference today, turn on MSNBC and
they're complaining about it. Really, do you know? The last
(27:01):
time I was in DC is a few years back.
I ran away from a few people because they started
coming doing the little run after me. And the good
news is when I turned the corner, I got into
a building. Cops were sitting in the building. That was
(27:23):
the end of that. They never showed up. And I
don't know if that that doesn't represent all of DC, right,
but that's what happened. And do you know in DC
they put out flyers to tell you how to prevent carjacking?
Do you know what was in the flyers? Get out
(27:43):
of your car and run away. Yeah. Trump wants to
do something about it, and the mayor of DC is
arguing with him. You're arguing with him about want to
protect the citizens? What a bunch of clouds oanes So
good on him. I don't mind that the people run
(28:07):
in DC is have created the nightmare it's going on
in other cities, and it's about time we get tough.
You're fifteen years old and you shoot somebody, No more
tried as a young kid. You're now an adult. You
(28:28):
carjack somebody and take your gun and hit him in
the head. No longer you're a kid, you're an adult.
That's all. It's pretty simplistic.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
And you know what you do?
Speaker 2 (28:39):
You blast that on TV. You put posters on every
stupid street corner where these young kids think they can
destroy people's life, hang out and you put a poster
up saying you want a carjack, this is where you're
gonna land for twenty That's all. It's pretty simple. So
(29:05):
good on Trump, Notice bad Trump? Good Trump? Typical day, right,
he meets with Russia on MSNBC that complaining about him
meeting with Russia. He's being played, He's this, he's that
he hasn't even met with the guy yet. And last
(29:28):
I look, the yuts who ran was running for president
for four years, was in a coma as he was
watching this going on. At least President Trump is trying.
And maybe nothing comes from his meeting with Putin this week,
maybe nothing. At least he's trying. At least he's trying
(29:53):
because a lot of Russians and a lot of Ukrainians
are dying. So, by the way, you cannot watch MSNBC
for thirty minutes without them telling you you are racist,
and you can't spend one minute on there without them
telling you Trump is the anti Christ and Hitler, I
(30:14):
don't know anybody watches that. Did you know you're all racist,
white supremacists? All you just letting you know. I dare
you to turn on MSNBC for five minutes They bring
these people on that just say anything. They set the
headline and then try to fit in a story into
(30:36):
the headlines. Anyway, That's my whining complaining of the day.
But I think it was all pretty important. I don't
own any marijuana stocks, and probably if they go up,
you may want to buy uh Dorito's and macaroni and
cheese futures and anything else that provides for the munchies.
(31:00):
Sense By the way, didn't that make sense? Anyway? That's
the thought process and a lot of things. As we
segue back on mister markets. Happily, a much quieter week
(31:21):
this week for earnings. The last two weeks were the
biggest as far as numbers this week. I only have
one two, two and a half pages of earnings this
week and Cisco in the Dow applied Materials not much
(31:42):
more that I care about up next. This, that, and
the other thing is we always do. This is the
one only investor's.
Speaker 4 (31:48):
Edge you're listening to. What are you waiting for one
(32:19):
to ready go? Investors?
Speaker 2 (32:25):
We can't recalled.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Bob and well once again to investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
I gotta tell you the other part of the equation here.
I think I mentioned it, but I'm gonna be a
little bit more uh noisy with it. So we are
right at the highs of the NASDAC NAZDA one hundred,
the S and p. We're going through an earning season
right now. And what I do, I'm very legal paddish.
(33:11):
I love legal pads. I don't like send them myself emails.
I like hard copy. So everyday earnings, what I'll do
is I take out a legal pad, I draw a
line down the middle, and I start writing the biggest
gaps to the upside on the left side, and I
move it towards the middle based on how much they
(33:32):
gap up, and if things are flat, they stay in
the middle. And then to the right side, I start
with the small gaps and all the way to the
right on the sheet of paper are the big gaps.
And what I'll do is I'll save them for the
whole earning season and I'll go backwards. I have to
(33:54):
tell you something. There has been a tome. There's the
visual amount if not more, of stocks that have gapped
up to the upside. That is, the stock closed that
one hundred opens up at one twenty because they beat
Wall Street estimates by thirty five cents, earnings are accelerating.
Things are great. Recent ones have been Oracle, Microsoft, Reddit,
(34:23):
Meta just recently, and others. There's been a good amount.
No argument there, but I have to tell you there
has been an inordinate amount of blow ups that stocks
that were at one twenty yesterday and open up at
one hundred, if not worse. I've seen some and I'm
(34:46):
not talking about biotechs with no sales. I've seen stocks
blow up thirty and forty percent. Trade Desk, not an
unknown name in my world, close at eighty eight, opened
at fifty four. That's an extreme example. But there's been
(35:15):
a bunch. And I'm not talking Snapchat that is just
a terrible stock that closed at nine thirty nine and
open like at seven and a half and they don't
get anything right. I'm talking some important names that are
blown up, and what do we do with those names?
(35:37):
Just so you know. If they're on my front screen
as being strong and they blow up from the highs, oh,
they get moved to a different part of the screen,
and if they keep going lower, they go into another
screen that's that left screen I talk about if they
hold support and try to turn which maybe Netflix is
(36:00):
trying to do, by the way, after gapping to the downside,
we're aware, but we're just letting you know our list
of blow ups feels like we're in a bear market already.
You know, most a lot of blow ups happen in
bad markets, not good and maybe that has to do
(36:22):
with back where we started on this show, concentration. There's
been such a concentrated market out there. We'll keep you
up to date, but I'm just letting you know. IBM
gaps down opens up about two fifty five, it's two
(36:45):
thirty six, following down, catching the drift. We stay on
top of that. Are they gapping down and following? And
then you've got things. Get this one Duo Lingo. You
know what they do, right, it's software for translation. You
know you can learn it's to Italian in Spanish, which,
(37:06):
by the way, I'm still pro concrastinating. I want to
start Italian because I go to Italy all the time.
Dual Lingo closes at three forty three, three hundred and
forty three, opens at four hundred and sixty eight three
days ago. It closes at three three ninety five, and
(37:28):
it's back down to three forty. So if you bought
that gap. You are getting cooked. I'm seeing some of
that too. You gap it up and boom hupspot They
gap that up to five twenty two from a close
of four ninety two up thirty four ninety two had
(37:53):
to close in at four sixty one. Excuse me, five
point twenty two had to close in at four sixty one.
So just let you know, and what do we do
we avoid the bad? How about monday dot com another
software name close down seventy four bucks to one hundred
and seventy four today, down thirty percent. Keep it in
(38:18):
the file manager. Hey, I also want to mention one
other thing. When you have a chance, show your sons
and daughters. Tommy Fleetwood, who is very close again to
winning his first PGA tournament, go and do a press
conference and go watch what he said.
Speaker 3 (38:39):
This is what is known.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
As a great sportsman and a man's man that has
been I wouldn't call come in second the third place
in a PGA tournament failing, but when you want to
win your first in PGA, he's one on Europe so badly,
and you're really he gave one up a few weeks back,
(39:02):
and you had the big chance yesterday and he comes
out and congratulates the winner and turn failure into success
in three minutes. Everybody is rooting for this man right now,
not as a golfer, but as a man. Show your
(39:25):
sons and daughters, have them learn a lesson about sportsmanship.
And baseball games have nine innings, meaning you may fail
first time, second time, third time, well there's a fourth
and of course you learn from your fails. Don't repeat
the same thing over and over again if it's not working.
(39:46):
That should be simple logic, you would think. Anyway, go
check that out. I almost met I was in Dubai
at a at the top of a buil at the
Noboo Hotel and he was sitting right behind me. I
didn't want to say anything. He was, I think, celebrating
his birthday. Hopefully i'll meet him one day. You have
(40:08):
a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do
like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better,
You will feel better. I promise hug your dad too.
Until tomorrow. Peace out all, Thanks for joining Serenity now
good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Caultbom on Biz
Talk to listen to past episodes, or to get in
contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka
dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary kolbaumb
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.
It's Monday, it's August eleventh, that's twenty twenty five. Hope
you had a great weekend as we start the week.
In case you don't know, this is serious talk on
everything that affects you. We do the markets. Oh and
(00:33):
we do the markets, we do the economy, we do
your job, your industry, scam, sham's corruption, insider trading, marijuana what. Yeah,
we're gonna talk marijuana today and much more. And if
you do not get this radio show in your city,
(00:53):
we'll post it at Gary k dot com. We'll us
post it on all the podcast apps as well as
biz tv YouTube. And if you'd like to email us,
just be nice, Just be nice. So just letting you know,
by the way, travel hell this weekend. Yesterday fly you
(01:14):
know at least Jet Blue at nine am emailed me
to tell me my flight's going to be late. At
six pm or five pm. They knew at nine am.
Don't ask me how. And of course the hour turned
into two hours, turn into two and a half. It's
not their fault. Weather up and down the East coast
(01:35):
not good. On the way, they're not good either, But
such as life. Welcome to the world of summertime in
Florida with the thunderstorms. But the most important part of
the equation got there safe. And that's all that really matters. Right,
If you think about it, you're in the up thirty
five thousand feet in a chair in a Thailand old
(01:59):
pill and you're moving, but you don't know you're moving
through the air. Think about that. That's killer. So be
happy when you get there, even though sometimes you're very
very late. Okay, my father, it's not the ninth inning,
(02:22):
it's extra innings. As you know. A couple of months back,
I thought it was over and done. He was in
the hospital with pneumonia. The rabbi came in, the doctor
gave me the look. The next day, then ammonia goes
away and they sent them home the day after. And
he's been pretty good. But to Terry rating, it's gonna
be ninety four in October and you just can't fight inevitable.
(02:45):
But we brought Reese, my grandson, over, and he was
very happy. But it's says I must tell you, And
I've been getting hundreds of emails from all of you
about all this, that you've gone through the same thing.
By the way, my mom last Thanksgiving at the age
(03:07):
of ninety one, and my brother I tried to explain
to him, Hulk Cogan died at seventy one. This one
died at seventy four. This one died at seventy eight.
And he doesn't care. I said, he's going to be
ninety four. He's way past. My brother doesn't want to
hear it. Family, ladies and gentlemen. That's all I can
tell you. When I was there, I was looking through
these little books of pictures, black and white pictures from
(03:30):
nineteen forties, of fifties, something like that. My father tried
out for the Yankees, didn't make it, but almost did.
Great athletes hate seeing him like this. Not easy, not easy.
So I already got the flights back this week. I'm
in Florida Thursday, flyback Thursday. And you know, every time
(03:54):
my brother calls me, I'm like, uh, oh, and I
hate seeing them like this, my father, I hate seeing
them like this. But we're doing the best we can.
We'll keep you up to date, and we appreciate all
your well wishes and all your experiences. Really helps out
(04:17):
to hear what you all have gone through because of age.
All right, let's get away from that, right. I want
to get neck deep into one word, concentration. Neck deep,
(04:42):
as we have stated to you every now and then,
we will simplify life in general for you. And what
do we mean by that? Imagine if there was only
a hundred stocks in the market, and each we're equal
to the next, not one more favorable to another, in
(05:04):
whatever index they are in the market index, And assume
we know what uptrends and down trends are. And assume
one hundred stocks are in an uptrend, but then twenty
five of them flatten out, Well, you still have seventy
five in an up trend, but it's a narrower and
the twenty five flattened out's not hurting anything. What happens
(05:27):
if that twenty five that flattened out start turning down
and another twenty five flatten out, well, the market's a
little more difficult. The index is not going to move
the way it was. The trajectory's going to change from
somewhat ascending to a little flattening out. And then what
happens if fifty stocks are descending and the fifty that
(05:51):
we're ascending flatten out. Well, now you have fifty going down.
Well guess what the market index is going to turn
and the market's going to drop. It's simple as that.
And you're assuming we know what an uptrend and down
trend look like. Well that's how market's top stock by
stock sector bisector. But in this market, it's a lot different, moocho, DIFFERENTII,
(06:16):
whatever how you pronounce it. We have never seen such
concentration ever. We've had the nifty to fifty in the seventies,
we had nineteen ninety nine where the internet and the technology.
We've had many times where we had concentration, but we've
(06:39):
never had seven stocks. When you think about this, the
main the main things people watch of the DOO which
is thirty, but really the S and P five hundred.
Every time I see somebody quote the market, they go
more to the S and P five hundred than the Dow.
These days, seven stocks are almost thirty five percent when
(07:04):
that index moves four hundred and ninety three stocks are
sixty five percent. Think about that. That is what is
known as concentration and influence. And you know what the
seven stocks are. Those same seven stocks are sixty five
(07:27):
percent of the Nasdaq one hundred. But we think it
is more concentrated with the SNP because of how many
stocks there are. And the bottom stock in the S
and P five hundred is like sixty one hundredth of
a percent, and there's a lot of them there. It
tells you that institutions have been selling off everything to
(07:50):
buy in the few And I'm being a little bit
hyperbolic because it's not that bad when I say it,
because it still stocks. Hey, Goldman Sachs is near high.
That's not top ten, that's not top seven. You get
my point. There are other things working. We're just letting
(08:12):
you know we have never seen such a concentration in
the big indices, and we want you to remember that.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
And why.
Speaker 2 (08:24):
Not because oh it's these seven. It's because it's a
characteristic that has shown up in quite the few occasions
throughout history. And what we are about here are characteristics
of bull and bear markets. What they look like, how
they act, how they bottom, how they top, how they ascend,
(08:47):
how they descend. And as you know, we follow pretty
much fifteen hundred stocks every day, two hundred sectors, every country,
every commodity, and it still ain't easy. So that big
characteristic is a big juicy motza ball right now that
(09:09):
could have repercussions. Maybe it won't. And what we're gonna
do is give you both sides of it. What's the
possibilities of it turning into much better? What are the
possibilities of an oh moment, we'll go backwards, we'll explain
(09:38):
at the very least, we will continue to avoid the
bad areas we've mentioned recently, how the transports were getting
in bad shape, insurance, auto dealers, the payroll companies, as
well as other areas. Some Dow stocks like Murca, horror show,
(10:04):
some retail apparel like in holy crap, under armor, what
do they do to that stock? While telling you this
is still leading, this is lagging. This is busting down
to the downside off of earnings. This is gapping up
(10:27):
to the upside because of earnings. Up next, we'll get
into it a little bit more. This is the one
only investor's edge, Hi I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a nationally
(11:04):
syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome radio people.
We manage investors' money for a living, specializing in fee
based discretionary money management. No big commissions, just a fee
on the assets that's managed. We also provide a full
range of personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income and
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(11:28):
Understanding not all individuals have the same needs. Will carefully
evaluate your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy.
If your current approach to investing is not getting you
to where you would like to be, call us to
make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number
to call is eight eight eight four two two five
five five nine. That's eight eight eight four two two
(11:50):
five to five five nine. That's eight eight eight four
two two five to five, five to nine. Investment advisory
services offer through Call Capital Management. It's time to switch
on the integrator units and to get the brain cells working.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You're listening to okay, it's it could be fun.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Investor's Edge the last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called Bob, it doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
And welc once again to Investor's.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Edge, thanks for being with us today. So we're just
letting you know, that's all. We're just letting you know,
(12:54):
same thing I believe we said to you on Friday
and maybe the day's previous. If just an if, if
nothing changes, and as you know, things can change. What
(13:14):
do I mean by that, Well, we're whining and complaining
to how about how the breadth of the market, the
advanced declines is terrible, terrible. We have been telling you
how the NASDAC new yearly highs, the advanced decline line
(13:35):
topped out a year ago and in the last couple
two to three weeks has just been blasted. And that
is how many stocks are advancing versus declining. And what
does that do. Well, the more stocks decline, the more
charts get in worse shape. That's all. So we're just
(13:59):
letting you know, if nothing changes, if the bad stays bad,
if they worsen, which is even worse. There has always
been one hundred percent of the time in eventuality, if
things worsen, if the weak stocks, I'll give you one IBM.
(14:20):
The stock just got hit hard on earnings and it's
now getting blasted. If that continues down, it's just one stock.
But what if we continue to see days where twelve
hundred up twenty eight hundred down, where new yearly lows
are more than new yearly highs, even though the big
indices are near yearly highs. Typically eventuality is they come
(14:48):
and get the stuff that's held up, because it's the
stuff that's held up, and institutions, in their need to
sell more, will tend to go after the stocks that
are sticking up. And in this case, where seven stocks
are sixty almost sixty five of the Nasdaq one hundred
(15:10):
and almost thirty five of the S and P, that
means they own a crapload of these stocks. What do
we tell you of the words over owned, overloved, over leverage,
and when the worm turns, what do they over own
(15:31):
and what do they need to lop some off of
you got it them? And if they do, what does
that mean to the indices that have held up so
well because of those same names? Correct them moondo the
indices start coming in. So we're just letting you know,
first off, I mean, the characteristics are there. That's just
(15:57):
number one. The characteristics are there. But number two, there
could be lead time. What do we mean by that
could take weeks if not more. We've seen that, We've
seen the nifty to fifty roll on for a while.
(16:20):
We've seen big indices keep going for a long while.
They're not pinpoint. We're just letting you know to put
in your file manager right now that you're a handsome
and buff host has given you that concentration and influence
warning shot if nothing changes. And of course we're here
(16:44):
five days a week because if something does change, we'll
let you know. It's our favorite line, We'll let you know.
But today it just things kind of drifted worsened throughout
the day for whatever. Now I hear there's some inflation
numbers this week, okay, which has me pondering. Explain that
(17:10):
in a minute. We're just letting you know the tone
of the market here. And by the way, the Nasdaq
which came in later in the day, Nasdaq one hundred
came in later in the day, still kind of like
the rocks of Gibraltar. Still, so the Dow was down
(17:35):
two hundred week. Caterpillar we even said to you that
looked like Caterpillar top breaking the twenty one day. And
we've also as the stock was moving higher. What wire
we complaining about? How is Caterpillar stock going up with
the last two quarters earnings down over twenty percent and
they were down the prior to quarters. And what do
(17:55):
we always say, Well, we don't make the rules. Salesforce
dot Com a nightmarish big software stock. New yearly lows
for Salesforce dot Com, which is quite amazing, but guess
what they have decelerating numbers? Catam excuse me, IBM another
(18:19):
rough day, down six, Apple pulled back, that's normal, down two.
I have to going straight up off of tariff exemptions.
SMP down sixteen, So not so bad. That's because the
NASDAK NASDAQ one hundred still down sixty four and eighty four.
And I will tell you they were up most of
(18:40):
the day until the three o'clock hour. But you can
just tell that's where the money's still hanging. Tesla was
up eight, Oracle was up three, the others were down,
but and Nvidia down seventy cents, Meta down three. It's
a seven hundred and sixty five dollars stock, Google down
fifty cents, Broad down eighty cents, for down two hundred doo.
(19:04):
That's a tiptoe through the tulips. We'll see if that
continues now. Of interest, those transports just thinking up the joint,
and it's something we're gonna watch closely. The transport's thinking
up the joint. My left screen, which is the NASDAK
(19:27):
more than NASDAK technology names that do not make the
grade or gap down or broke down and not in
shape mostly read with some just kicked in the teeth.
You've heard it into it right. Software down forty two,
HubSpot twenty nine software. I'm noticing where it worked day
(19:51):
down eight software Duo Lingo down twenty nine software. A
lot of software stock acting like the south end of
a northbound jackass. I'm gonna highlight those software stocks tonight
to the peeps because that's gonna be of note. They
(20:13):
already got the software security stocks last week, CrowdStrike, z Scale,
Palo Alto Networks. So we are very wary of software
in it kind of matters. If you look at the
IGV maybe topping out again narrow is all hack up? Next?
(20:41):
What else? And are we gonna whine about anything today?
Of course we are. This is the one on the investor's.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Edge you're listening to. America is talking small investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
He's got the crowd is just on his feet.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Here boy with Gary called Bob.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
He comes highly recommended.
Speaker 1 (21:24):
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
And walk once again to Investor's edge. M marijuana stocks
was strong. Uh. The President Donald Trump looks like he's
gonna reclassify the drug to be is not so bad
that pisses me off? And I am in hopes his
(21:53):
family has not taken positions in marijuana stuff because if
they'd have, that'll doubly piss me off. Anyway, This some
a symbol called MJ it's an extremee change traded fund,
and that was up twenty seven percent today to thirty
dollars and eighty nine cents. Keep in mind these marijuana
(22:17):
stocks have gone from whatever down to like nothing, but
had a big day to day. How about, uh, let
me see if I can find ones I want to
go through? ACB that's Aurora Cannabis was up sixteen percent
today to five dollars and twenty cents. That hit a
(22:38):
high of fifteen hundred dollars. No, not kidding. How about
CGC canopy Growth that was up fifty three percent today,
Am I right?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:54):
Went to a dollar fifty eight, up fifty five cents
for this because remember they touted you in hit a
high in twenty one. That's twenty twenty one at five
hundred and sixty five dollars. It's a dollar fifty eight today,
but a very strong move in the Canadian marijuana stocks up.
(23:17):
It pisses me off. You got this guy Kennedy that's
telling you everything's bad, everything's bad, and vaccines are bad,
and this is bad, and that is bad, and this
is bad. Don't touch that, and coloring of food, and
this in food, and that in food, and this in food,
and that in food, and this in food.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Don't do this, don't do that.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
Oh, let's reclassify marijuana is not so bad. Notice, mister
logic me is able to explain to you why this
is so moronic and stupid. Have you been watching this
(23:56):
Kennedy guy, his Department of Health and Human Services? Everything
bad for you, just letting you know. And everybody's screwing you.
The food companies are screwing you. The drug company is
are skewer screwing you. The vaccine companies are screwing you.
Everyone is screwing you. They're out to get you. They
want to make you less healthy. They want you to
eat more crap, smoke some weed. You see, Notice how
(24:23):
easily I can explain other people's stupidity and ignorance. You
know when we tell you Al Gore is telling us
we gotta be smart about climate change as he gets
in his private jet and he's worth three hundred million
(24:46):
bucks creating all kinds of climate companies that don't do
crap for nobody. Al Gore or Leo you know DiCaprio
by the way, good actor, no complaints, nothing personal. Gotta
be careful the climate. Take care of the climate, yes,
take care of the climate. Conserve. You should be driving
electric vehicle, not a gas guzzler. As he gets on
(25:08):
his private jet and we see him on a two
hundred foot yacht in the waters of Monaco. You know,
we say that these people up yours go screw, and
we would tell it to their faces. So now we
have the president Robert F. Kennedy and all that marijuana good.
(25:29):
Everything else is bad. And it pisses me off, just
letting you know. Do you know why I say that?
Because I know a lot of people, well, not a lot,
but enough that abuse marijuana and have turned to dust.
Bought a lot of Doritos and macaroni and cheese. By
the way, not me, I'm not talking about me. We
(25:53):
move on. What doesn't piss me off about the President today?
I love, I love, absolutely love his words on Washington, DC,
(26:15):
that he wants to put more people in there and
who cares whether they're the National Guard or not, to
protect the citizens, the lawful citizens. While if you're carjacking,
you're no longer gonna have the no cash bail bull crap.
But you're going and we're gonna hold you, and we're
gonna indict you, and if your peers find you're guilty,
(26:39):
you're gonna do fifteen to twenty and maybe you'll get
out in ten and that maybe, maybe maybe will incentivize
other crooks to not do it anymore. So I immediately, while
he's having this press conference today, turn on MSNBC and
they're complaining about it. Really, do you know? The last
(27:01):
time I was in DC is a few years back.
I ran away from a few people because they started
coming doing the little run after me. And the good
news is when I turned the corner, I got into
a building. Cops were sitting in the building. That was
(27:23):
the end of that. They never showed up. And I
don't know if that that doesn't represent all of DC, right,
but that's what happened. And do you know in DC
they put out flyers to tell you how to prevent carjacking?
Do you know what was in the flyers? Get out
(27:43):
of your car and run away. Yeah. Trump wants to
do something about it, and the mayor of DC is
arguing with him. You're arguing with him about want to
protect the citizens? What a bunch of clouds oanes So
good on him. I don't mind that the people run
(28:07):
in DC is have created the nightmare it's going on
in other cities, and it's about time we get tough.
You're fifteen years old and you shoot somebody, No more
tried as a young kid. You're now an adult. You
(28:28):
carjack somebody and take your gun and hit him in
the head. No longer you're a kid, you're an adult.
That's all. It's pretty simplistic.
Speaker 3 (28:37):
And you know what you do?
Speaker 2 (28:39):
You blast that on TV. You put posters on every
stupid street corner where these young kids think they can
destroy people's life, hang out and you put a poster
up saying you want a carjack, this is where you're
gonna land for twenty That's all. It's pretty simple. So
(29:05):
good on Trump, Notice bad Trump? Good Trump? Typical day, right,
he meets with Russia on MSNBC that complaining about him
meeting with Russia. He's being played, He's this, he's that
he hasn't even met with the guy yet. And last
(29:28):
I look, the yuts who ran was running for president
for four years, was in a coma as he was
watching this going on. At least President Trump is trying.
And maybe nothing comes from his meeting with Putin this week,
maybe nothing. At least he's trying. At least he's trying
(29:53):
because a lot of Russians and a lot of Ukrainians
are dying. So, by the way, you cannot watch MSNBC
for thirty minutes without them telling you you are racist,
and you can't spend one minute on there without them
telling you Trump is the anti Christ and Hitler, I
(30:14):
don't know anybody watches that. Did you know you're all racist,
white supremacists? All you just letting you know. I dare
you to turn on MSNBC for five minutes They bring
these people on that just say anything. They set the
headline and then try to fit in a story into
(30:36):
the headlines. Anyway, That's my whining complaining of the day.
But I think it was all pretty important. I don't
own any marijuana stocks, and probably if they go up,
you may want to buy uh Dorito's and macaroni and
cheese futures and anything else that provides for the munchies.
(31:00):
Sense By the way, didn't that make sense? Anyway? That's
the thought process and a lot of things. As we
segue back on mister markets. Happily, a much quieter week
(31:21):
this week for earnings. The last two weeks were the
biggest as far as numbers this week. I only have
one two, two and a half pages of earnings this
week and Cisco in the Dow applied Materials not much
(31:42):
more that I care about up next. This, that, and
the other thing is we always do. This is the
one only investor's.
Speaker 4 (31:48):
Edge you're listening to. What are you waiting for one
(32:19):
to ready go? Investors?
Speaker 2 (32:25):
We can't recalled.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Bob and well once again to investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
I gotta tell you the other part of the equation here.
I think I mentioned it, but I'm gonna be a
little bit more uh noisy with it. So we are
right at the highs of the NASDAC NAZDA one hundred,
the S and p. We're going through an earning season
right now. And what I do, I'm very legal paddish.
(33:11):
I love legal pads. I don't like send them myself emails.
I like hard copy. So everyday earnings, what I'll do
is I take out a legal pad, I draw a
line down the middle, and I start writing the biggest
gaps to the upside on the left side, and I
move it towards the middle based on how much they
(33:32):
gap up, and if things are flat, they stay in
the middle. And then to the right side, I start
with the small gaps and all the way to the
right on the sheet of paper are the big gaps.
And what I'll do is I'll save them for the
whole earning season and I'll go backwards. I have to
(33:54):
tell you something. There has been a tome. There's the
visual amount if not more, of stocks that have gapped
up to the upside. That is, the stock closed that
one hundred opens up at one twenty because they beat
Wall Street estimates by thirty five cents, earnings are accelerating.
Things are great. Recent ones have been Oracle, Microsoft, Reddit,
(34:23):
Meta just recently, and others. There's been a good amount.
No argument there, but I have to tell you there
has been an inordinate amount of blow ups that stocks
that were at one twenty yesterday and open up at
one hundred, if not worse. I've seen some and I'm
(34:46):
not talking about biotechs with no sales. I've seen stocks
blow up thirty and forty percent. Trade Desk, not an
unknown name in my world, close at eighty eight, opened
at fifty four. That's an extreme example. But there's been
(35:15):
a bunch. And I'm not talking Snapchat that is just
a terrible stock that closed at nine thirty nine and
open like at seven and a half and they don't
get anything right. I'm talking some important names that are
blown up, and what do we do with those names?
(35:37):
Just so you know. If they're on my front screen
as being strong and they blow up from the highs, oh,
they get moved to a different part of the screen,
and if they keep going lower, they go into another
screen that's that left screen I talk about if they
hold support and try to turn which maybe Netflix is
(36:00):
trying to do, by the way, after gapping to the downside,
we're aware, but we're just letting you know our list
of blow ups feels like we're in a bear market already.
You know, most a lot of blow ups happen in
bad markets, not good and maybe that has to do
(36:22):
with back where we started on this show, concentration. There's
been such a concentrated market out there. We'll keep you
up to date, but I'm just letting you know. IBM
gaps down opens up about two fifty five, it's two
(36:45):
thirty six, following down, catching the drift. We stay on
top of that. Are they gapping down and following? And
then you've got things. Get this one Duo Lingo. You
know what they do, right, it's software for translation. You
know you can learn it's to Italian in Spanish, which,
(37:06):
by the way, I'm still pro concrastinating. I want to
start Italian because I go to Italy all the time.
Dual Lingo closes at three forty three, three hundred and
forty three, opens at four hundred and sixty eight three
days ago. It closes at three three ninety five, and
(37:28):
it's back down to three forty. So if you bought
that gap. You are getting cooked. I'm seeing some of
that too. You gap it up and boom hupspot They
gap that up to five twenty two from a close
of four ninety two up thirty four ninety two had
(37:53):
to close in at four sixty one. Excuse me, five
point twenty two had to close in at four sixty one.
So just let you know, and what do we do
we avoid the bad? How about monday dot com another
software name close down seventy four bucks to one hundred
and seventy four today, down thirty percent. Keep it in
(38:18):
the file manager. Hey, I also want to mention one
other thing. When you have a chance, show your sons
and daughters. Tommy Fleetwood, who is very close again to
winning his first PGA tournament, go and do a press
conference and go watch what he said.
Speaker 3 (38:39):
This is what is known.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
As a great sportsman and a man's man that has
been I wouldn't call come in second the third place
in a PGA tournament failing, but when you want to
win your first in PGA, he's one on Europe so badly,
and you're really he gave one up a few weeks back,
(39:02):
and you had the big chance yesterday and he comes
out and congratulates the winner and turn failure into success
in three minutes. Everybody is rooting for this man right now,
not as a golfer, but as a man. Show your
(39:25):
sons and daughters, have them learn a lesson about sportsmanship.
And baseball games have nine innings, meaning you may fail
first time, second time, third time, well there's a fourth
and of course you learn from your fails. Don't repeat
the same thing over and over again if it's not working.
(39:46):
That should be simple logic, you would think. Anyway, go
check that out. I almost met I was in Dubai
at a at the top of a buil at the
Noboo Hotel and he was sitting right behind me. I
didn't want to say anything. He was, I think, celebrating
his birthday. Hopefully i'll meet him one day. You have
(40:08):
a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do
like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better,
You will feel better. I promise hug your dad too.
Until tomorrow. Peace out all, Thanks for joining Serenity now
good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Caultbom on Biz
Talk to listen to past episodes, or to get in
contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka
dot com.
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