November 17, 2025 • 40 mins
https://garykaltbaum.com/
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And well once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kalbamb
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you're listening. It's Monday,
it's November seventeenth, It's two thousand and twenty five. I
hope you had a good weekend. Uh huh huh. We
(00:35):
have lots to discuss, and I'm not talking about another
loss by my giants. This is serious talk on everything
that affects. We'll talk to markets, in the economy and
your job, your industry, scams and shams, corruption, lies, thievery,
(01:04):
and anything that comes to mind. And if you do
not get this radio show and you city, we'll post
it gary k dot com wis post it on our
x feed, also podcast apps, also YouTube channel abiz tv,
and you'd like to email me. Just be nice, that's
all we ask, respectful nice. As long as you don't
(01:27):
like hamas, will be respectful back. And you know what
I mean by that. Okay, Number one, we warned you
very timely about the BS all these companies with no
(01:52):
sales skyrocketing, and I'm the first to admit, darn, I
wish I had them while they were skyrott But we
warned you, and we warned you with very simple words,
if nothing changes, if nothing changes, they're all going to
(02:17):
go back to where they came from. And by the words,
if nothing changes, meaning if the bullmark it turns bearish
for these areas and there's still no sales, they're going
to crash. And they've crashed. Nuclear has crashed, quantum names
(02:51):
have crashed, Drones, robo anything, rare earth and whatever else
comes under that realm. We warned you. We sincerely hope
(03:14):
you listened. We did not know what the timing would be.
It just so happened to be pretty darn quick last
five or six weeks. I think the average is fifty
percent drop so far. I think there's some that are
seventy percent down. And nothing against the companies. I don't
(03:38):
think no sales companies should be trading on the exchanges
no sales, And don't get me wrong, last week we
even told you there was a no sales biotech bought
out for Big Bucks by merk So we warned you
(03:58):
about that, and we hope you listen. We warned you
that crypto was going bearish and to avoid it. How
did we know, Well, we didn't predict it. We interpreted
it simple as that, because on first week of October
(04:26):
the fifty day broke. They tried to bounce it and
it failed on the underside of a fifty day and
that was game. So now the bitcoin, let's see, I'm
not gonna do the IBIT and the GBTC those are
the ETFs. Let's actually do bitcoin price ninety two thousand
(04:51):
and forty The high recently was let's call it one
hundred and twenty four thousand, So one hundred and twenty
fourth that's thirty two on one twenty four. What is
about twenty seven percent? Twenty six twenty seven ethereum that's
(05:17):
the other one.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
I look at.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
It closed today at three thousand and eighteen.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
The high was.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Really forty four forty six eighty six sixteen on forty six,
that's thirty some odd percent, and they remain in bare phases.
Another rough day today. We warned you about micro strategy.
(05:51):
We told you others are calling it a scheme. We're
just gonna say it's weird. And we've always worried about
more leverage to buy one asset, more debt to buy
and one asset, what if the asset goes bad? So
micro strategy which they change their name the strategy, and
(06:16):
I don't know what kind of freaking strategy that is.
That's gone from four point fifty seven to one ninety five.
We know that's more than fifty percent. I think it's sixty.
And by the way, the high of all time was
a year ago at five point forty three, down to
one ninety five. And the worry is the CEO was
(06:41):
on TV saying we're good, it's all according to plan.
We've warned you recently about the detail deterioration in the market.
(07:03):
What do we mean by that, Well, we always do
the one hundred stock markets, one hundred stocks. Imagine if
one hundred stocks, and assume we know what an up
trend is, imagine one hundred stocks and that's it. And
the hundred stocks are in an uptrend. Well, the market's
(07:25):
in an uptrend. And let's say they're all equal weighted. Well,
if twenty five of them stop going up but flatten out, no, biggie,
you still have seventy five going up, twenty five flatten out.
But what if those twenty five start heading down, Well
(07:47):
it kind of sort of means that you got some headwinds.
No biggie seventy five up, twenty five down. But what
if the seventy five going up stop going up and
flatten out, but twenty five are going down, Well, the
market's now going down and so on and so forth. Well,
(08:16):
that's simplifying things. What we do here is break it
all apart because we're not equal weighted. Goldman Sachs is
twenty times important than Verizon because it's price weighted, and
(08:40):
gold Mian Sacks moving one percent is twenty times more
important in the down number than Verizon because of the price.
And then of course there's the big tech that is
gargantually weighted now in the S and P and the
Nasdaq one hundred big time, So we have to pay
(09:04):
attention to those names and anything else that comes up.
We know the SMH with semiconductors is very weighted in
Nvidia and Broadcomm, so we got to watch those for
that and so on and so forth. And we have
(09:25):
warned you that as we scan, well what have we
told you? Avoid the housing and housing related bear market.
Avoid the payroll ADP and paychecks have crashed, which has
us worried about the job market. Avoid most of the
retail auto dealers, the cruise lines that topped out. They
(09:47):
were acting fine and we told you, Oh they topped
out and they're gone, the airlines, the truckers, a lot
of the economically sensitive names that are not artificial intelligence.
We warned you about the ridiculous openings of the IPOs
that have crashed initial public offerings. We've warned you about
(10:11):
our left screen. What's our left screen, Well, it's lesser tech,
which is just going by the wayside continuously. We warned
you about the private equity slash mergers companies KKR, Apollo
and the like. We've warned you about a lot of
(10:34):
things up next today this is the one only investors
a Hi. I'm Gary Kolbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show,
(11:05):
Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage
investors' money for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary
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(11:28):
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your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If
your current approach to investing is not getting you to
where you would like to be, call us to make
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five nine. That's eight eight eight four two two five
(11:50):
to five five nine. That's eight eight eight four two
two five to five, five to nine investment advisory services
offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells where you're listening to Okay, Investors Edge.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
The last basin of quality programming.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
With Gary called Bomb.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
It doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this, And we we forgot our favorite warning,
the restaurants. Avoid the restaurants. We've told you to avoid
(12:44):
a lot of the smaller financials, and we actually listed,
we actually gave you out symbols some we've never heard of.
We've warned you about the managed care stocks, even though
recently much better action in healthcare and pharmaceuticals. We've talked
(13:06):
about that. All these things we've warned you about as
well some down names we warn you about Salesforce, dot Com, Disney,
and then there's some other things we have been telling
(13:26):
you as of recent Watch the big banks, they better
keep them in good stead.
Speaker 3 (13:34):
Remember that.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
We've also said to you they better keep the AI
going because it's really narrowing down. We've also warned you
about some of these names because of the debt. Oracle,
Oracle was strong as an ox, and you know what
(14:00):
we had to do mid October say to you, something's
wrong with Oracle, and little did we know, three hundred
down to two twenty at the close today, as well
as other names we've just warned, and of course we
(14:22):
tell you anything that's above the fifty day moving average
and then breaks the fifty day moving average. Warning. We
warned you about the advanced declines on a daily basis. Wow,
(14:44):
thousand up, three thousand down. We've warned you about the
new highs versus new lows. We've warned you that the
lesser indices were down, but the big indices were holding
up pretty darn good. We warned you about the fifty
(15:05):
day moving average on the S and P, Nasdaq Nasdaq
one hundred. We don't worry too much about the daw,
but the Dow also. Things worsen today, and I'm gonna
(15:27):
pick it apart. And it's not that the Dow was
down five hundred and fifty seven, of the S and
P sixty one and the Nasdaq won ninety two. But
by the way, the NASDAK finished one ninety two, and
that's actually a good one ninety two, because I gotta
tell you it was down about three something with a
(15:49):
half hour to go today, so they bumped that up.
And I'm gonna let you know that the Nasdaq closed
to for the first time, first time since May first,
below the fifty day moving average. But I'm not gonna
(16:11):
get all worried just yet. The S and P a
close below the fifty day A close below for the
first time since May first. The Nasdaq one hundred did
the same. Since May first, a couple of times they
(16:34):
fell below but finished above on the day. Now, before
I get all crazy on you, they're just below the
fifty day moving average. Not a biggie good day to
mark gets them right back above. But underneath the surface
(16:55):
is very, very weak, and it got weaker today. And
how do we know this? Are you ready for some numbers?
There were five hundred and fifty nine new yearly lows
on the New York and NASDAK today, in spite of
the fact the new yearly lows were way back in April,
(17:16):
way lower than we're prices now for the indusses telling
you what we've been telling you underneath the surface is
very weak. Advanced the clients today eight seventy seven up,
thirty four eighty seven down on the New York eleven
(17:37):
fifty seven up, thirty three eighty five down on the Nasdaq.
That sucks. I'm not as worried about these big indices
though it looks like they're starting to buckle. What we
always tell you, we use the same language all the time.
(18:00):
Under the weight of the weakness. More and more stocks
going by the wayside. It's tough for to hold these
things up. And as you know, there's a big influence
in the Nasdaq NASDAQ one hundred s and p with
these technology names, and more those are going by the wayside.
(18:25):
Dell was down eleven bucks today, Costco nine Booking Holdings
down two hundred and forty one bucks today, and that
was news driven Expeedy was down twenty two. They do
basically the same thing. There was news on Google with
artificial intelligence and travel whatever. That's besides the point. What
(18:47):
got me today is the financials. The housing stocks were
hit hard again today, but they've already been the bear
market and they just worsened a retail most of them,
they've been to bear market and they worsened. Transports worsened, hotels,
cruise lines, airlines worsened. Economically sensitive that are not artificial
(19:11):
intelligence worsened, Restaurants worsened. Except for Brinker International, they had
a good day. What's got me is they were getting
the banks today, not the regionals. The regionals have been weak.
Not the other financials we've been telling you, MasterCard, Visa,
Capital One, they've been breaking down badly. But the big
(19:34):
banks as well as another name in the now, American Express.
American Express down fifty sixteen bucks today, sixteen dollars on
some pretty serious volume. Don't know what's going on, really don't.
(19:58):
But Goldman Sachs breaking out last Wednesday, fails, Thursday drops, Friday,
breaks the fifty day on a Monday, down fifteen today.
JP Morgan below the fifty day City group below the
fifty day not by much, but still below. And then
(20:20):
you have the Blackrock down another thirty four bucks today, Blackrock, Blackstone, Apollo, Evercore, KKR.
These are the companies that do all these mergers and
deals and this, that and the other thing very weak.
Up next, artificial intelligence. We'll explain.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
This is the one on the Investors Day.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
You are missing too. America is talking small investors Edge.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
He's gotta be with the crowd, is just on his feet.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Here a boy with Gary called Bob comes highly recommended.
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 3 (21:28):
M SO.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
And video reports Wednesday. I'm sure the report will be fine.
Uh maybe the stock bounces up on it, maybe it
goes down on it. I don't know if stock is
right now where it was in August after ripping to
the upside. We traded out. If it made a few bucks,
should have made more, but we were trying to give
(21:56):
it a chance. But some things have come to our
attention which we have been warning you about as of
recent and as we say to you, Winno H and
R block. But I know how to read a balance
sheet and a financial statement and What I also know
(22:17):
how to do is when I read other stuff from
other people, pick up on whether they know what they're
saying or not. And I'm letting you know, what have
we been worried about with artificial intelligence? What have we
been saying to you? The numbers are outrageous? How can
(22:42):
companies I'm just that that have ten dollars in cash
flow say they're going to spend one hundred thousand. And
there's some hyperbole to what I just said, but you
get my point. And then what's the story with Hey
(23:05):
we got this product. Hey, we're gonna own you money
or give you money or invest in your company, and
you're gonna go buy our product? Circular vendor financing? And
then all we're reading every day is more debt. Hey
(23:32):
we're gonna float this amount of debt to do this
in artificial intelligence? And all I'm thinking to myself and
think with me, if somebody says, oh, we're gonna spend
one hundred billion dollars, aren't they supposed to make one
(23:53):
hundred and one billion off of that? And I'm just
adding up the numbers and again I'm just a dummy.
How the hell there's gonna be a return on investment,
how the hell they think they're going to have a
return on investment or all these numbers. And then the
(24:17):
depreciation thing where they're supposed to depreciate for certain amount
of years and they're extending it out and it goes
to the bottom line, making things better than it should.
And there's Zacu's accusations being bandied about on certain companies,
and we won't do that. But what we will do
(24:39):
is say Core we've stocked, just went from one fifty
three to seventy five and they lowered guidance and they're
still losing money and still has a huge market cap.
Will do that, and we're not picking on Core Weave.
(25:03):
But I got to tell you there's some smart people
out there that think there's some crap going on. And
then you have some pretty smart people Michael Burry of
the Short Guy is short Pallenteer and Nvidia think something
(25:23):
up there that he doesn't think things adds up. Pe
the Field sold all his as well as the dude
from soft Bank. These are not dummies, we'll see. And
then we have Oracle. Remember what we're about here. One
plus one equals too. That's all we're trying to figure
out one plus one equals too. How is an oracle
(25:45):
can announce monstrous numbers and go from three hundred and
forty five to two hundred and twenty debt And just
so you know, there is this thing about insurance, insurance,
(26:06):
the buying of insurance, the buying of insurance for debt
and all that crap. And I have to tell you,
(26:28):
the price to ensure a lot of this stuff has skyrocketed.
And that's the free market. And who would pay the piper?
The lenders, And we're just noticing the lenders and the
(26:51):
private equities and all that is getting smoked. So we're
just watching closely. Yea more and more and more of
these areas broke down. If you had listened to us,
you're at You don't own any of those areas. If
you had listened to us. The only thing really game
(27:14):
in town right now. Some of the again the AI
tech semis are still strong but pulling back, and the
recent move into healthcare and pharma. We mentioned the oils,
but we also said there's only a handful of good
looking names. And there's your story, and I want you
(27:35):
to be careful. Do you know why they're going to
tell you that the third quarter GDP was in the
high threes, if not four percent, a gargantuan number. There's
something wrong and we're going to be watching closely, and
(27:55):
we hope we're wrong. But we're big believers in markets
and free markets and the big money and the institutional money.
Not talking Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob. Nothing against them,
but there's a crapload of stuff breaking down, more and
more names going by the wayside in the last week
or two. Robinhood breaks down, Shopify breaks down, soft Bank
(28:21):
breaks down, terrible reactions in that core weave and that
Circle Internet, whatever the hell that is. They blew up
all those things with no sales. And by the way,
we don't mind that. We hope you didn't lose any money,
but we don't mind that. We don't like froth. You
know what else is going on that nobody talks about all.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
The junk.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
And I'm gonna mention names and I don't. This is
not them being junk, but the item junk. You know,
they came out with a Malania coin justin it's down
ninety nine percent. They came out with a Trump coin,
it's down ninety percent. Again, that's not on them. But
when you bring out coins that are just meaningless and
(29:11):
they get spiked up in a whatever frenzy, guess what.
And then you have these crypto miners and these crypto people,
and the crypto this and crypto that, and what did
we tell you here? They all forgot that bear markets
(29:33):
will happen. It's just an asset. And the last one
was down seventy five percent, and not one of them
has even thought another bear could happen. But we're in
the midst of one. I don't have no idea how
bad it gets or how far it goes.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
By the way, speaking to the Trump's again, this is
not on them, it's on the whole scenario. The Donald
Trump media DJ is down to ten dollars and sixty
cents in a frenzy, they rip that to the upside
one hundred and seventy five to ten. And this is
not again. I'm just making the point. Even the most
(30:13):
popular of people to their people, obviously one side not
thrilled with them, get caught up in the frenzies. And
as we said, the nuclear, the quantum, the rarer, they
came out, these rarer stocks skyrocket in a day, and
(30:36):
within five days they're all the way back down. The drones,
the robotaxis, the bitcoin miners. You can't have fifty of them.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
You know.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
This all reminds me of the marijuana stocks. Remember we
warn you about them a long time ago. Really, you're
gonna go to a store and buy marijuana and pay
taxes on them. When your uncle Biff around the corner
comes over charges you left less, no taxes, and much
(31:10):
better stuff. It was a gimme that the marijuana stocks
would crash. Duh, we warned you about beyond meat plants. Really, yeah, sure,
I'm gonna go into a steakhouse. Give me the plant,
(31:31):
don't give me the portal house. Beyond meets a buck up.
Next we'll put it all together and think about tomorrow.
This is the one only Investors aid, you're listening.
Speaker 5 (32:15):
To one ready, investors Edge, we can't recalled.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Bob and well once again to Investor's Edge. And please
don't be emailed me because I mentioned the Trump things.
I'm just trying to explain to you how mania's work
and how much money can be lost. And by the way,
beyond meat is a buck I don't know if did
(32:47):
they announce a bankruptcy. I'm not sure. And it's only
gone from two hundred and thirty nine seventy one cents
to a buck. That was that was a gimme plants stop.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Google.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Berkshire Hathaway spent four billion dollars on Google stock alphabet
they call it. And the stock today was finished up
eight dollars and seventy six cents before the market got
trashed early it was up seventeen or eighteen bucks. What
has my interest on that is? That wasn't Warren Buffett
(33:32):
buying it. There's a new guy Buffet's out, so I
don't know everybody jumping on it. And the other thing
is they spent four billion bucks. They got like four
hundred billion in cash. That's like a fly on an
elephant's butt, So you know, but we will follow it.
And Google has been a strong Google is the strongest,
(33:55):
big name, the strongest. But overall Berkshire Hathaway has been
offloading stock raising cash for a while. We'll watch it.
We have no idea what happens tomorrow. Could bounce If
(34:15):
the Nasdak nazdak one hundred s and p stay below
the fifty day not good news. But even if they
get back above man, there's a lot of more technical
damage done today, more technical damage done in the market
deeper into bear markets. A lot of names have gone,
(34:38):
and of course if they get the biggies that are
so concentrated with tech, it tells you Tech is having
some trouble also. And of course Nvidia's Wednesday also this week.
I believe Home Depot, Walmart, Target lows, Nvidia, TJ william Sonoma,
(35:02):
the Gap and raw stores and BJ's wholesale and all that.
So it's a little bit of a retail week. And
just so you know, I'm bearish on a ton of
those things that we've been telling you about for a while.
We're not yet bearish on the big indices, but they're
(35:24):
getting there today, though I want to repeat, they were
coming after financials in a big way, and I'm wondering
if they're doing the little one plus one equals too
with all this AI frenzy, and may I when I
use the word frenzy, I mean it. The numbers that
(35:49):
have been coming out are just unbelievable, and as I
have said to you, they better do those numbers. Tidbits,
just letting you know, China produce a seventy percent of
global rare earths and refines ninety one percent of the
total supply. Just letting you know, just letting you know,
central banks have cut rates three hundred and twelve times
(36:10):
over the last twenty four months. You wonder why markets
have gone up, especially in Europe and other places where
there's recessions. Today is day one ninety nine. The SNP
finally closes below the fifty day moving average, but just
by a little bit, Just by a little bit, Just
(36:30):
so you know, the S and P five hundred has
never been this expensive price. The sale hit three point six,
way above the two thousand dot com of two point one.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
Just letting you know.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Something on the AI that has me weary. Have you
been hearing about this open ai guy? Never met him?
So an investor asked the CEO of open Ai, how
do you have commitments to spend one point four trull
dollars but you only have thirteen billion in revenue? See
(37:06):
what I'm talking about? So just that's a good question.
You only have thirteen billion in revenue, but commitments for
one point four trillion. You know what the CEO said
back to them, I'd be happy to find a buyer
for your shares. No answer would scare the crap out
of me.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
Just letting you know.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
The Trump administration listened to me and got rid of
some tariffs on a bunch of things m Friday after
the close good we applaud that. It makes us nauseous
that the defenders of him say, oh, yeah, but you know,
(37:51):
prices haven't gone up under him. Of course they've gone up.
The good news is oil's gone down and yields have
gone down, and that's big than the food. But guess
what for votes food? U Thirty to fifty year mortgages.
Just letting you know, on a thirty year mortgage on
a four hundred thousand dollars home six percent monthly payment
(38:15):
two three nine eight fifty year two one oh six,
you saved two hundred and ninety two dollars a month
total loan cost on the thirty year eight hundred and
sixty three thousand total loan cost on the fifty year
one point twenty sixty three million, only another four hundred
thousand bucks. Yeah, let's go with the fifty year. Not
(38:38):
by the way, they've already backed away from that. We
told you that they would back away from that. Just
let you know. And I think that's about it for
the tidbits. Again, the cost to ensure the CDs of
core Weave and Oracle and all these companies, the cost
(39:00):
to ensure them as skyrocketed. The betting on all this
is that something is up. Doesn't mean they're right. But
we are watching and more importantly, more importantly, and by
(39:21):
the way, these are called credit default swaps. They're tied
to the debt of these companies. We're watching it closely,
but more importantly, we're just going to watch the stocks.
The stocks will tell us everything we need to know.
(39:42):
Have I depressed you, kids? We're here in real time reality.
Pay attention. If you just paid attention on what we've
told you, avoid, you saved a ton until tomorrow. By
(40:03):
the way, I'll be on with Charles Payne tomorrow two pm.
Fox Business Network. Check it out and until tomorrow, have
a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do
like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family,
make sure you hung your children. They will feel better,
You will feel better. I promise they will be well.
Better days ahead. We hope.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
Good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cault mom on
Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes, or to get
in contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's
garyka dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And well once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kalbamb
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you're listening. It's Monday,
it's November seventeenth, It's two thousand and twenty five. I
hope you had a good weekend. Uh huh huh. We
(00:35):
have lots to discuss, and I'm not talking about another
loss by my giants. This is serious talk on everything
that affects. We'll talk to markets, in the economy and
your job, your industry, scams and shams, corruption, lies, thievery,
(01:04):
and anything that comes to mind. And if you do
not get this radio show and you city, we'll post
it gary k dot com wis post it on our
x feed, also podcast apps, also YouTube channel abiz tv,
and you'd like to email me. Just be nice, that's
all we ask, respectful nice. As long as you don't
(01:27):
like hamas, will be respectful back. And you know what
I mean by that. Okay, Number one, we warned you
very timely about the BS all these companies with no
(01:52):
sales skyrocketing, and I'm the first to admit, darn, I
wish I had them while they were skyrott But we
warned you, and we warned you with very simple words,
if nothing changes, if nothing changes, they're all going to
(02:17):
go back to where they came from. And by the words,
if nothing changes, meaning if the bullmark it turns bearish
for these areas and there's still no sales, they're going
to crash. And they've crashed. Nuclear has crashed, quantum names
(02:51):
have crashed, Drones, robo anything, rare earth and whatever else
comes under that realm. We warned you. We sincerely hope
(03:14):
you listened. We did not know what the timing would be.
It just so happened to be pretty darn quick last
five or six weeks. I think the average is fifty
percent drop so far. I think there's some that are
seventy percent down. And nothing against the companies. I don't
(03:38):
think no sales companies should be trading on the exchanges
no sales, And don't get me wrong, last week we
even told you there was a no sales biotech bought
out for Big Bucks by merk So we warned you
(03:58):
about that, and we hope you listen. We warned you
that crypto was going bearish and to avoid it. How
did we know, Well, we didn't predict it. We interpreted
it simple as that, because on first week of October
(04:26):
the fifty day broke. They tried to bounce it and
it failed on the underside of a fifty day and
that was game. So now the bitcoin, let's see, I'm
not gonna do the IBIT and the GBTC those are
the ETFs. Let's actually do bitcoin price ninety two thousand
(04:51):
and forty The high recently was let's call it one
hundred and twenty four thousand, So one hundred and twenty
fourth that's thirty two on one twenty four. What is
about twenty seven percent? Twenty six twenty seven ethereum that's
(05:17):
the other one.
Speaker 3 (05:18):
I look at.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
It closed today at three thousand and eighteen.
Speaker 4 (05:27):
The high was.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Really forty four forty six eighty six sixteen on forty six,
that's thirty some odd percent, and they remain in bare phases.
Another rough day today. We warned you about micro strategy.
(05:51):
We told you others are calling it a scheme. We're
just gonna say it's weird. And we've always worried about
more leverage to buy one asset, more debt to buy
and one asset, what if the asset goes bad? So
micro strategy which they change their name the strategy, and
(06:16):
I don't know what kind of freaking strategy that is.
That's gone from four point fifty seven to one ninety five.
We know that's more than fifty percent. I think it's sixty.
And by the way, the high of all time was
a year ago at five point forty three, down to
one ninety five. And the worry is the CEO was
(06:41):
on TV saying we're good, it's all according to plan.
We've warned you recently about the detail deterioration in the market.
(07:03):
What do we mean by that, Well, we always do
the one hundred stock markets, one hundred stocks. Imagine if
one hundred stocks, and assume we know what an up
trend is, imagine one hundred stocks and that's it. And
the hundred stocks are in an uptrend. Well, the market's
(07:25):
in an uptrend. And let's say they're all equal weighted. Well,
if twenty five of them stop going up but flatten out, no, biggie,
you still have seventy five going up, twenty five flatten out.
But what if those twenty five start heading down, Well
(07:47):
it kind of sort of means that you got some headwinds.
No biggie seventy five up, twenty five down. But what
if the seventy five going up stop going up and
flatten out, but twenty five are going down, Well, the
market's now going down and so on and so forth. Well,
(08:16):
that's simplifying things. What we do here is break it
all apart because we're not equal weighted. Goldman Sachs is
twenty times important than Verizon because it's price weighted, and
(08:40):
gold Mian Sacks moving one percent is twenty times more
important in the down number than Verizon because of the price.
And then of course there's the big tech that is
gargantually weighted now in the S and P and the
Nasdaq one hundred big time, So we have to pay
(09:04):
attention to those names and anything else that comes up.
We know the SMH with semiconductors is very weighted in
Nvidia and Broadcomm, so we got to watch those for
that and so on and so forth. And we have
(09:25):
warned you that as we scan, well what have we
told you? Avoid the housing and housing related bear market.
Avoid the payroll ADP and paychecks have crashed, which has
us worried about the job market. Avoid most of the
retail auto dealers, the cruise lines that topped out. They
(09:47):
were acting fine and we told you, Oh they topped
out and they're gone, the airlines, the truckers, a lot
of the economically sensitive names that are not artificial intelligence.
We warned you about the ridiculous openings of the IPOs
that have crashed initial public offerings. We've warned you about
(10:11):
our left screen. What's our left screen, Well, it's lesser tech,
which is just going by the wayside continuously. We warned
you about the private equity slash mergers companies KKR, Apollo
and the like. We've warned you about a lot of
(10:34):
things up next today this is the one only investors
a Hi. I'm Gary Kolbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show,
(11:05):
Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage
investors' money for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary
money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the
assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of
personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,
all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding
(11:28):
not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate
your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If
your current approach to investing is not getting you to
where you would like to be, call us to make
an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to
call is eight eight eight four two two five five
five nine. That's eight eight eight four two two five
(11:50):
to five five nine. That's eight eight eight four two
two five to five, five to nine investment advisory services
offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells where you're listening to Okay, Investors Edge.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
The last basin of quality programming.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
With Gary called Bomb.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
It doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this, And we we forgot our favorite warning,
the restaurants. Avoid the restaurants. We've told you to avoid
(12:44):
a lot of the smaller financials, and we actually listed,
we actually gave you out symbols some we've never heard of.
We've warned you about the managed care stocks, even though
recently much better action in healthcare and pharmaceuticals. We've talked
(13:06):
about that. All these things we've warned you about as
well some down names we warn you about Salesforce, dot Com, Disney,
and then there's some other things we have been telling
(13:26):
you as of recent Watch the big banks, they better
keep them in good stead.
Speaker 3 (13:34):
Remember that.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
We've also said to you they better keep the AI
going because it's really narrowing down. We've also warned you
about some of these names because of the debt. Oracle,
Oracle was strong as an ox, and you know what
(14:00):
we had to do mid October say to you, something's
wrong with Oracle, and little did we know, three hundred
down to two twenty at the close today, as well
as other names we've just warned, and of course we
(14:22):
tell you anything that's above the fifty day moving average
and then breaks the fifty day moving average. Warning. We
warned you about the advanced declines on a daily basis. Wow,
(14:44):
thousand up, three thousand down. We've warned you about the
new highs versus new lows. We've warned you that the
lesser indices were down, but the big indices were holding
up pretty darn good. We warned you about the fifty
(15:05):
day moving average on the S and P, Nasdaq Nasdaq
one hundred. We don't worry too much about the daw,
but the Dow also. Things worsen today, and I'm gonna
(15:27):
pick it apart. And it's not that the Dow was
down five hundred and fifty seven, of the S and
P sixty one and the Nasdaq won ninety two. But
by the way, the NASDAK finished one ninety two, and
that's actually a good one ninety two, because I gotta
tell you it was down about three something with a
(15:49):
half hour to go today, so they bumped that up.
And I'm gonna let you know that the Nasdaq closed
to for the first time, first time since May first,
below the fifty day moving average. But I'm not gonna
(16:11):
get all worried just yet. The S and P a
close below the fifty day A close below for the
first time since May first. The Nasdaq one hundred did
the same. Since May first, a couple of times they
(16:34):
fell below but finished above on the day. Now, before
I get all crazy on you, they're just below the
fifty day moving average. Not a biggie good day to
mark gets them right back above. But underneath the surface
(16:55):
is very, very weak, and it got weaker today. And
how do we know this? Are you ready for some numbers?
There were five hundred and fifty nine new yearly lows
on the New York and NASDAK today, in spite of
the fact the new yearly lows were way back in April,
(17:16):
way lower than we're prices now for the indusses telling
you what we've been telling you underneath the surface is
very weak. Advanced the clients today eight seventy seven up,
thirty four eighty seven down on the New York eleven
(17:37):
fifty seven up, thirty three eighty five down on the Nasdaq.
That sucks. I'm not as worried about these big indices
though it looks like they're starting to buckle. What we
always tell you, we use the same language all the time.
(18:00):
Under the weight of the weakness. More and more stocks
going by the wayside. It's tough for to hold these
things up. And as you know, there's a big influence
in the Nasdaq NASDAQ one hundred s and p with
these technology names, and more those are going by the wayside.
(18:25):
Dell was down eleven bucks today, Costco nine Booking Holdings
down two hundred and forty one bucks today, and that
was news driven Expeedy was down twenty two. They do
basically the same thing. There was news on Google with
artificial intelligence and travel whatever. That's besides the point. What
(18:47):
got me today is the financials. The housing stocks were
hit hard again today, but they've already been the bear
market and they just worsened a retail most of them,
they've been to bear market and they worsened. Transports worsened, hotels,
cruise lines, airlines worsened. Economically sensitive that are not artificial
(19:11):
intelligence worsened, Restaurants worsened. Except for Brinker International, they had
a good day. What's got me is they were getting
the banks today, not the regionals. The regionals have been weak.
Not the other financials we've been telling you, MasterCard, Visa,
Capital One, they've been breaking down badly. But the big
(19:34):
banks as well as another name in the now, American Express.
American Express down fifty sixteen bucks today, sixteen dollars on
some pretty serious volume. Don't know what's going on, really don't.
(19:58):
But Goldman Sachs breaking out last Wednesday, fails, Thursday drops, Friday,
breaks the fifty day on a Monday, down fifteen today.
JP Morgan below the fifty day City group below the
fifty day not by much, but still below. And then
(20:20):
you have the Blackrock down another thirty four bucks today, Blackrock, Blackstone, Apollo, Evercore, KKR.
These are the companies that do all these mergers and
deals and this, that and the other thing very weak.
Up next, artificial intelligence. We'll explain.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
This is the one on the Investors Day.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
You are missing too. America is talking small investors Edge.
Speaker 1 (21:16):
He's gotta be with the crowd, is just on his feet.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Here a boy with Gary called Bob comes highly recommended.
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 3 (21:28):
M SO.
Speaker 2 (21:35):
And video reports Wednesday. I'm sure the report will be fine.
Uh maybe the stock bounces up on it, maybe it
goes down on it. I don't know if stock is
right now where it was in August after ripping to
the upside. We traded out. If it made a few bucks,
should have made more, but we were trying to give
(21:56):
it a chance. But some things have come to our
attention which we have been warning you about as of
recent and as we say to you, Winno H and
R block. But I know how to read a balance
sheet and a financial statement and What I also know
(22:17):
how to do is when I read other stuff from
other people, pick up on whether they know what they're
saying or not. And I'm letting you know, what have
we been worried about with artificial intelligence? What have we
been saying to you? The numbers are outrageous? How can
(22:42):
companies I'm just that that have ten dollars in cash
flow say they're going to spend one hundred thousand. And
there's some hyperbole to what I just said, but you
get my point. And then what's the story with Hey
(23:05):
we got this product. Hey, we're gonna own you money
or give you money or invest in your company, and
you're gonna go buy our product? Circular vendor financing? And
then all we're reading every day is more debt. Hey
(23:32):
we're gonna float this amount of debt to do this
in artificial intelligence? And all I'm thinking to myself and
think with me, if somebody says, oh, we're gonna spend
one hundred billion dollars, aren't they supposed to make one
(23:53):
hundred and one billion off of that? And I'm just
adding up the numbers and again I'm just a dummy.
How the hell there's gonna be a return on investment,
how the hell they think they're going to have a
return on investment or all these numbers. And then the
(24:17):
depreciation thing where they're supposed to depreciate for certain amount
of years and they're extending it out and it goes
to the bottom line, making things better than it should.
And there's Zacu's accusations being bandied about on certain companies,
and we won't do that. But what we will do
(24:39):
is say Core we've stocked, just went from one fifty
three to seventy five and they lowered guidance and they're
still losing money and still has a huge market cap.
Will do that, and we're not picking on Core Weave.
(25:03):
But I got to tell you there's some smart people
out there that think there's some crap going on. And
then you have some pretty smart people Michael Burry of
the Short Guy is short Pallenteer and Nvidia think something
(25:23):
up there that he doesn't think things adds up. Pe
the Field sold all his as well as the dude
from soft Bank. These are not dummies, we'll see. And
then we have Oracle. Remember what we're about here. One
plus one equals too. That's all we're trying to figure
out one plus one equals too. How is an oracle
(25:45):
can announce monstrous numbers and go from three hundred and
forty five to two hundred and twenty debt And just
so you know, there is this thing about insurance, insurance,
(26:06):
the buying of insurance, the buying of insurance for debt
and all that crap. And I have to tell you,
(26:28):
the price to ensure a lot of this stuff has skyrocketed.
And that's the free market. And who would pay the piper?
The lenders, And we're just noticing the lenders and the
(26:51):
private equities and all that is getting smoked. So we're
just watching closely. Yea more and more and more of
these areas broke down. If you had listened to us,
you're at You don't own any of those areas. If
you had listened to us. The only thing really game
(27:14):
in town right now. Some of the again the AI
tech semis are still strong but pulling back, and the
recent move into healthcare and pharma. We mentioned the oils,
but we also said there's only a handful of good
looking names. And there's your story, and I want you
(27:35):
to be careful. Do you know why they're going to
tell you that the third quarter GDP was in the
high threes, if not four percent, a gargantuan number. There's
something wrong and we're going to be watching closely, and
(27:55):
we hope we're wrong. But we're big believers in markets
and free markets and the big money and the institutional money.
Not talking Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob. Nothing against them,
but there's a crapload of stuff breaking down, more and
more names going by the wayside in the last week
or two. Robinhood breaks down, Shopify breaks down, soft Bank
(28:21):
breaks down, terrible reactions in that core weave and that
Circle Internet, whatever the hell that is. They blew up
all those things with no sales. And by the way,
we don't mind that. We hope you didn't lose any money,
but we don't mind that. We don't like froth. You
know what else is going on that nobody talks about all.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
The junk.
Speaker 2 (28:49):
And I'm gonna mention names and I don't. This is
not them being junk, but the item junk. You know,
they came out with a Malania coin justin it's down
ninety nine percent. They came out with a Trump coin,
it's down ninety percent. Again, that's not on them. But
when you bring out coins that are just meaningless and
(29:11):
they get spiked up in a whatever frenzy, guess what.
And then you have these crypto miners and these crypto people,
and the crypto this and crypto that, and what did
we tell you here? They all forgot that bear markets
(29:33):
will happen. It's just an asset. And the last one
was down seventy five percent, and not one of them
has even thought another bear could happen. But we're in
the midst of one. I don't have no idea how
bad it gets or how far it goes.
Speaker 3 (29:49):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
By the way, speaking to the Trump's again, this is
not on them, it's on the whole scenario. The Donald
Trump media DJ is down to ten dollars and sixty
cents in a frenzy, they rip that to the upside
one hundred and seventy five to ten. And this is
not again. I'm just making the point. Even the most
(30:13):
popular of people to their people, obviously one side not
thrilled with them, get caught up in the frenzies. And
as we said, the nuclear, the quantum, the rarer, they
came out, these rarer stocks skyrocket in a day, and
(30:36):
within five days they're all the way back down. The drones,
the robotaxis, the bitcoin miners. You can't have fifty of them.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
You know.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
This all reminds me of the marijuana stocks. Remember we
warn you about them a long time ago. Really, you're
gonna go to a store and buy marijuana and pay
taxes on them. When your uncle Biff around the corner
comes over charges you left less, no taxes, and much
(31:10):
better stuff. It was a gimme that the marijuana stocks
would crash. Duh, we warned you about beyond meat plants. Really, yeah, sure,
I'm gonna go into a steakhouse. Give me the plant,
(31:31):
don't give me the portal house. Beyond meets a buck up.
Next we'll put it all together and think about tomorrow.
This is the one only Investors aid, you're listening.
Speaker 5 (32:15):
To one ready, investors Edge, we can't recalled.
Speaker 2 (32:26):
Bob and well once again to Investor's Edge. And please
don't be emailed me because I mentioned the Trump things.
I'm just trying to explain to you how mania's work
and how much money can be lost. And by the way,
beyond meat is a buck I don't know if did
(32:47):
they announce a bankruptcy. I'm not sure. And it's only
gone from two hundred and thirty nine seventy one cents
to a buck. That was that was a gimme plants stop.
Speaker 3 (33:07):
Google.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Berkshire Hathaway spent four billion dollars on Google stock alphabet
they call it. And the stock today was finished up
eight dollars and seventy six cents before the market got
trashed early it was up seventeen or eighteen bucks. What
has my interest on that is? That wasn't Warren Buffett
(33:32):
buying it. There's a new guy Buffet's out, so I
don't know everybody jumping on it. And the other thing
is they spent four billion bucks. They got like four
hundred billion in cash. That's like a fly on an
elephant's butt, So you know, but we will follow it.
And Google has been a strong Google is the strongest,
(33:55):
big name, the strongest. But overall Berkshire Hathaway has been
offloading stock raising cash for a while. We'll watch it.
We have no idea what happens tomorrow. Could bounce If
(34:15):
the Nasdak nazdak one hundred s and p stay below
the fifty day not good news. But even if they
get back above man, there's a lot of more technical
damage done today, more technical damage done in the market
deeper into bear markets. A lot of names have gone,
(34:38):
and of course if they get the biggies that are
so concentrated with tech, it tells you Tech is having
some trouble also. And of course Nvidia's Wednesday also this week.
I believe Home Depot, Walmart, Target lows, Nvidia, TJ william Sonoma,
(35:02):
the Gap and raw stores and BJ's wholesale and all that.
So it's a little bit of a retail week. And
just so you know, I'm bearish on a ton of
those things that we've been telling you about for a while.
We're not yet bearish on the big indices, but they're
(35:24):
getting there today, though I want to repeat, they were
coming after financials in a big way, and I'm wondering
if they're doing the little one plus one equals too
with all this AI frenzy, and may I when I
use the word frenzy, I mean it. The numbers that
(35:49):
have been coming out are just unbelievable, and as I
have said to you, they better do those numbers. Tidbits,
just letting you know, China produce a seventy percent of
global rare earths and refines ninety one percent of the
total supply. Just letting you know, just letting you know,
central banks have cut rates three hundred and twelve times
(36:10):
over the last twenty four months. You wonder why markets
have gone up, especially in Europe and other places where
there's recessions. Today is day one ninety nine. The SNP
finally closes below the fifty day moving average, but just
by a little bit, Just by a little bit, Just
(36:30):
so you know, the S and P five hundred has
never been this expensive price. The sale hit three point six,
way above the two thousand dot com of two point one.
Speaker 3 (36:40):
Just letting you know.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Something on the AI that has me weary. Have you
been hearing about this open ai guy? Never met him?
So an investor asked the CEO of open Ai, how
do you have commitments to spend one point four trull
dollars but you only have thirteen billion in revenue? See
(37:06):
what I'm talking about? So just that's a good question.
You only have thirteen billion in revenue, but commitments for
one point four trillion. You know what the CEO said
back to them, I'd be happy to find a buyer
for your shares. No answer would scare the crap out
of me.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
Just letting you know.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
The Trump administration listened to me and got rid of
some tariffs on a bunch of things m Friday after
the close good we applaud that. It makes us nauseous
that the defenders of him say, oh, yeah, but you know,
(37:51):
prices haven't gone up under him. Of course they've gone up.
The good news is oil's gone down and yields have
gone down, and that's big than the food. But guess
what for votes food? U Thirty to fifty year mortgages.
Just letting you know, on a thirty year mortgage on
a four hundred thousand dollars home six percent monthly payment
(38:15):
two three nine eight fifty year two one oh six,
you saved two hundred and ninety two dollars a month
total loan cost on the thirty year eight hundred and
sixty three thousand total loan cost on the fifty year
one point twenty sixty three million, only another four hundred
thousand bucks. Yeah, let's go with the fifty year. Not
(38:38):
by the way, they've already backed away from that. We
told you that they would back away from that. Just
let you know. And I think that's about it for
the tidbits. Again, the cost to ensure the CDs of
core Weave and Oracle and all these companies, the cost
(39:00):
to ensure them as skyrocketed. The betting on all this
is that something is up. Doesn't mean they're right. But
we are watching and more importantly, more importantly, and by
(39:21):
the way, these are called credit default swaps. They're tied
to the debt of these companies. We're watching it closely,
but more importantly, we're just going to watch the stocks.
The stocks will tell us everything we need to know.
(39:42):
Have I depressed you, kids? We're here in real time reality.
Pay attention. If you just paid attention on what we've
told you, avoid, you saved a ton until tomorrow. By
(40:03):
the way, I'll be on with Charles Payne tomorrow two pm.
Fox Business Network. Check it out and until tomorrow, have
a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do
like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family,
make sure you hung your children. They will feel better,
You will feel better. I promise they will be well.
Better days ahead. We hope.
Speaker 3 (40:21):
Good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cault mom on
Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes, or to get
in contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's
garyka dot com.
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