Dollar swoon! [07.21.2025]

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
And well once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kolbaum,
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you hear, ladies and gentlemen, Happy that you are listening.
It is the twenty first I had a look. It's
July two thousand and twenty five. Hope you're having a
good day. Hope you had a good weekend. I did
a lot of traveling this weekend, ladies and gentlemen, and

(00:34):
I must tell you, flying back and forth from the
Northeast corridor, what a pain in the ear. In case
you don't know, there's some issues. And then if weather
comes up, who let's just say whatever time your flight is,

(00:56):
just the add ninety minutes for starters. That's what's been
going on. I'm prepped. I get the lounges. Anyway, Hope
you had a good weekend. As always, we have a
bunch to talk about. In the last couple of weeks,
I have taken the time to talk to you about
froth and speculation and junk and when we use the

(01:19):
term junk in the markets. Nothing personal against the company,
but any company that has no sales in our world
is junk. We'll get into that because we have some
things to say, and of course we'll talk markets, the economy,
your job, your industry, the BS out of DC and

(01:44):
boy it is being spewed a lot both parties as usual.
We'll cover that. And if you do not get this
radio show in your city, we'll post it at gary
k dot comalos posted on our Twitter, on our x
feed which used to be Twitter, and if you don't
follow us, an extra show and if you'd like to
email us, just be nice, by the way, we'll post
them on the podcast apps and the biz biz Radio.

(02:08):
I got to get the name their YouTube channel. They
have one. We're gonna start with froth and speculation. Every
now and then you get into moments in the market
where froth and speculation become what we call insane, and

(02:33):
we don't put it down because if you can catch them,
if you catch them at the right time, there's some
big money to make. We have highlighted stocks for you
recently that went from like one to twenty five and
two days back to one. Though, but we always warn

(02:54):
you about this because the loudest noise on some of
these things are after the move. We're always wary after
a big move in any company when it gets the
CEO gets on the cover of newsweek or something like that.
That only gets reported after big moves. So anyway, we've

(03:20):
been talking about nuclear stocks, quantum computing stocks, air taxis, drones,
no driver vehicles, and we've just been simply saying to you,

(03:42):
don't be the last one in. We also say to you,
we don't know how far it goes, how long it lasts,
but we do know by precedent, and we did this
via many times in the last few weeks. By precedent,

(04:04):
if nothing changes, they'll go back to where they came from.
And how do we know this Well, we spend our
time watching markets, but studying markets going backwards to when

(04:26):
crazy happens. And what we mean by crazy is buy
at any price, regardless of the company, because it's on
the move. And again we're not here to put down
the companies. We're sure some of these companies may end

(04:46):
up being big, but we've warned you on many occasions.
If you recall, for you, Rivian seventy eight dollars IPO
was one hundred and eighty within a couple of days,
and we simply said to you that they hadn't sold

(05:09):
a car. But the market cap was almost as big
as Ford and GM, and Ford and GM had two
hundred and sixty billion dollars of sales. Well, Rivian went
from one hundred and eighty, the IPO was seventy eight right,

(05:30):
actually hit a low of eight. That's a thirteen bucks
right now. And by the way, they do sell a
lot of cars now, but they've never made a dime.
So once seventy eight to thirteen, that was one of
the big ones. Because we got I wouldn't call them

(05:54):
death threats, We got threats from people because we came
out and said we think it's worth ten bucks just
based on shares outstanding and what they had the NFTs.
We told you it was nonsense. We couldn't believe it,

(06:18):
what was going on. I still remember somebody bought one
for like two million bucks and tried to sell it
and couldn't get fifty bucks. When all hell is breaking loose,

(06:41):
it's our job to keep your feet on the ground. Well,
we're just letting you know we do not know exact timing,
no way of knowing, we are letting you know we
think there's a chance we're nearing a moment or at

(07:01):
a moment where the froth is going to come off
because of how much of a move has been made
in companies that just have no sales. Maybe they have
promise but no sales. And amazingly we were able to

(07:23):
tell you of companies with no sales that have been
public for fifteen years and they're being froth to the
upside fifteen years of being public and promising sales and
never having one. I don't even know how you stay
public so recently you just had these moves, and I

(07:48):
want to repeat something. If nothing changes, that's all. And
we've heard of news partnerships and the like, but we've
heard that before. So if you want to pay thirteen

(08:10):
billion dollars for a company with no sales, or nine
billion dollars for a company with no sales, or six
billion dollars with a company no sale with no sales,
god bless, don't be the last one in. I think
I'm getting the feeling that we're getting close, if not

(08:38):
at hand, that these things are going to have the
snot beat out of them, Because why can't a thirteen
billion dollar market cap with no sales, go down to
three billion, which is more than seventy five percent, and

(09:01):
still be ridiculously overvalued. So just be careful, be smart again.
Would you buy a home that's being offered at three
hundred grand and hand them two million? It's just simple questions.

(09:28):
It's just simple questions. So we're letting you know again.
We think we may be close. They hit a few today,
but my thoughts are not on what happened today. My
thoughts on sometimes your handsman buffed host has a decent

(09:57):
feel of what's happening now, and I just think the
attitude and the atmosphere I'm seeing a little too much
expectation that nothing can go wrong, and they're headed to

(10:23):
the moon again no sales, one of them with thirteen
billion market cap, A bunch of them between five and ten.
Up next, Scott Scheffler a lesson. This is the one

(10:44):
only Investor's Edge.

Speaker 3 (11:02):
Hi, I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show,
Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage
investors' money for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary
money management. No big commissions just a fee on the
assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of
personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,

(11:25):
all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding
not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate
your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If
your current approach to investing is not getting you to
where you would like to be, call us to make
an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to
call is eight eight eight four two two five five

(11:47):
five nine. That's eight eight eight four two two five
to five five nine. That's eight eight eight four two
two five to five, five to nine. Investment advisory services
offer through Call Capital Management. It's time to switch on
the integrator units and to get the brain cells where.

Speaker 4 (12:09):
You're listening to.

Speaker 2 (12:11):
Okay, it could be fun. Investor's Edge the last bastion
of quality programming.

Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called Bomb.

Speaker 1 (12:19):
It doesn't get better than this.

Speaker 2 (12:31):
Welcome once again to Investor's Edge. Final numbers. The Dow
was up to fifty and finished down nineteen. I wouldn't

(12:52):
take too much from that, except maybe we're at a
little moment here the S and P was up eight.
I'm gonna guess the s and P was much higher. Yeah,
sixty three, thirty six, thirty was up forty, finished only
up eight. The NASDAK finished up seventy eight. Okay, at

(13:18):
one time today was up one hundred and eighty. Nasdaq
one hundred finished up one fourteen. Transports finished down twenty one.
So you got a little sell down. I just noticed
at the end of the day the financials banks were
strong early. They got sold into economically sensitively as well.

(13:40):
Whenever I say to you something like hey, United Rentals
was down thirty bucks today, that's something so economically sensitive
got hit. But I also want to reiterate we have
been stating to you certain areas that we would avoid

(14:05):
one of them, and I kind of think it's kind
of sort of one A one B managed care HMOs
and insurance stocks. We've been telling you to avoid those areas.
They are in bearish phase of unknown price in time

(14:27):
with the managed care HMOs have just crashed crashed. United
Health six six to two eighty two is a crash.
Senteen eighty to twenty seven is a crash. And we

(14:48):
really hope you've been listening uh, you man of four
hundred to two twenty three, how about this elevance five
sixty seven to two seventy six. So when we say
to you avoid an area, we always give you the
other part. We don't know how long that lasts, how

(15:09):
far it goes, but we've stayed avoid and boy oh
boy smoked. Now insurance stocks are in a bearish phase,
but nothing to get twisted over. We think along with
the managed care go look at the XLV. It's the

(15:29):
Healthcare Select Index Fund ETF. We'd avoid a lot of
the medicals, a lot of the medicals, whether it's thermo
fish or scientific, or whether it's mirk, or whether it's

(15:50):
regeneron pharmaceuticals, brutal bear market twelve hundred to five forty
five and eleven months. We've been telling you to avoid
these areas, even they just topped out places you get
your blood, nothing bad, but they've topped that's Quest Diagnostics
and lab Core. I just got my blood done at

(16:13):
lab Core recently and she was very good. I didn't
feel a thing. Drugstocks, Abbot Labs just got smoked. On earnings.
How about ab V to eighteen, it's one eighty four,
not the end of the world, Eli Lilly supposedly the
end all be all by the way, Eli Lilly hit

(16:36):
that big high back in July of twenty four at
nine sixty six, at seven sixty two, so we would
avoid healthcare and those are kind of sort of mame.
We've also told you waste management, which was stronger now
in their own bearish face. Go look at WM and

(16:59):
RSG and things and anything breaking below the fifty day
moven average avoid and whatever else. But those are the
main ones oils for the most part, not all avoids.

(17:25):
So just keep all that mind and if it changes,
we'll let you know. But the big thing for me
this second thinking the froth may come off a little
bit here, thinking the froth is going to come off,
which takes me to the dollar. In case you don't know,

(17:50):
the market has been liking the dollar, swooning our dollar
versus other currencies. And what does that mean. Well, if
if it takes a dollar thirty to buy a pound
in London when it was a dollar ten a year ago,
well you know that's tougher trip to London, and of

(18:13):
course it's better for the Londoners to come over to
the United States. Also, it helps our multinationals because they
have a bunch more can buy a lot more of
our stuff. But when does it come a point where

(18:34):
the market starts thinking about what's wrong? Why is our
dollar swooning? What's the story behind that? And when we
ever get a point where the market gets in trouble
because of that? My only two words for that are
stay tuned. The week dollar has helped as of recent

(19:04):
including today, we're getting a little wary about the week dollar.
On that note gold today, I'm going to quote my
good buddy Gil Morales. I think he would say today

(19:26):
was a pocket pivot on gold GLD as it's been
in about thirteen weeks of tight range bound and looks
like it's trying to turn up off of that tight
range bound action as of today, and the gold miners
looks the same. And why would that happen? Well, go look,

(19:50):
go google the words why would gold go up if
the dollar goes down? Why would commodities go up if
the dollar goes down? And vice versa. Check it out,
learn about it. The story goes things are denominated in
the dollar, and that's how it works. But go look

(20:13):
it up. The dollar swooned again today, Gold had this
little pocket pivot, didn't break out yet but could be
on the verge and just a not so great finished
to today. Maybe getting a little bit tired this market.
We'll see, not one hundred percent sure. And why would

(20:38):
the dollar keep swooning? Well? I think the president up
next that and then Scott Scheffler, this is the one
only investors at.

Speaker 4 (21:11):
You are listening to America is talking following Investor's Edge.

Speaker 2 (21:16):
He's gotta be with the crowd. Is just on his
feet here.

Speaker 1 (21:20):
Said on a boy with Gary called Bob. I'm highly
recommended you're gonna feel better if you talk to.

Speaker 2 (21:26):
Him and welk once again to Investor's Edge. So as

(21:50):
you know, I have a love not love relationship with
the President, and one of the things I really don't
like it is now he is sicking one of his
departments on J. Powell with a criminal referral over refurbishments

(22:11):
of the buildings they're in. Give me a break, Please,
give me a break. President, promise, No, he's not going
to retaliate. They're talking about criminal referrals, aren't Obama now?
And don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of Obama,

(22:31):
but I digress. The President is going to have a
new central bank head next May of twenty six. But
he's trying to get Jay Powell out now and bring
somebody in to the point where and let me be
clear about this, President Donald Trump will be running our

(22:58):
central bank because he will put a puppet in to
run the central bank. There's no I'm one hundred percent sure.
I think he'd tell you that. If he even thinks
about taking the Fed funds rates down to one percent

(23:21):
from four and a quarter, all hell's gonna break loose.
I wish maybe I'll try and get a hold of
him and see if I am a Fox News business contributor,
I am somebody maybe I can sit down explain to him.
You know that old line note don't screw with mother nature, Well,

(23:41):
don't screw with the free markets. That's what Jay Powell
did and cause massive inflation. Well, if the President of
United States screw with free markets, all hell's going to
break loose. You think a market with a ten year yield?
Is it? For point thirty seven at the close today?

(24:01):
Wants one percent Fed funds in the economy, where the
President says is the greatest in the world. You don't
do that that's insanity. But that's why the dollar's swooning.
The market knows that he is going to be running

(24:22):
the Central Bank next May, and yeah, they're voters and
things like that. He'll fire all their asses and put
twelve puppets in. No, not kidding. You think I'm kidding.
I'm completely against it. I'm completely against these Justice Department

(24:44):
criminal referrals against J. Powell. And you know I'm no
J Powell fan. I worry. I gotta be careful about
what I say, and that shouldn't be. That's why the
dollar is swooning, because it is betting on what he's

(25:07):
going to do. We'll see what the outcome is. The
good news is we will be here on a daily
basis see what comes of it. But call me unhappy
on the president on some of the things he wants

(25:29):
to do and some of the things they are doing.
Let's segue. Oh, by the way, I mentioned the gold
and silver next, and by the way, you should spend
a few minutes on the dollar because it's important now,
moui importante. Another thing I'm not happy about. I'm not

(25:55):
going to mention who they had an ex Trump employee
from the first four years who's just a pundit. Now
come out and say today, Oh, they are paying the tariffs,
which is helping our budget deficit. No, we are paying

(26:16):
the tariffs. And I know this person knows the truth,
so not mistaken. Lying liars irritate me on either side
of the aisle. Remember, we have no agenda, no bias,

(26:37):
no militarium motive. We couldn't stand, We couldn't care less
if it's an R and D. We just want good policy,
that's it. And you know what that policy should be.
Low taxes, less regulations, get the hell out of the way,
not tariff the hell out of everybody. We move on. Oh,

(27:03):
by the way, here's a didn't even see this one.
This one, next generation solid state lithium metal batteries for
use in electric vehicles, been public since twenty hit a
high of one hundred and twenty hit a low of four.
It's gone to twelve pretty quickly. Has a seven billion

(27:25):
dollar market cap. How many sales None. It was down
fifteen percent today, but admittedly it went from four to
fifteen in the last four weeks. Sometimes it's a nuthouse,
ladies and gentlemen, Sometimes it's a nuthouse. Scott Scheffler won

(27:46):
the British Open yesterday royal Port Rush. I played the
course and in the year I played the course, I
went there with the Fishman and my friend Dave and
we stayed at the bush Mills Inn. They ate hagis
and the Irish breakfast. I couldn't blood sausage anyway. We

(28:12):
played Royal Port Rush and I played horribly that day.
It was a very windy day and rainy. But when
we went into the clubhouse they said, yeah, we had
this young guy, sixteen year old break the course record.
It was a sixty one. That was Rory McElroy. That's
when I played it. He broke the course record. I

(28:35):
think sixteen or seventeen. Anyway, Scott Scheffler, you notice anything,
doesn't care about celebrity. Happy that he's won, Happy he
got another trophy, probably made a few million, But said again,

(28:58):
what defines me? My wife, my son, my family, my health.
And I saw some people piste off about that. Would
you rather have them dancing cartwheels? We need to get

(29:19):
back to a time were that matters. You know, these
days are in this TikTok everything posting and everybody's a
celebrity and this and that, and you know what, the
good news is, there's a lot of Scottie Schefflers out there.

(29:42):
They just don't pump themselves and promote themselves, so you
don't see it anyway. I love seeing that, and more importantly,
less importantly, that dude can play golf. He has the

(30:04):
one thing better than everybody by far, distance control with
his irons. Ben Crenshaw, one of the greatest putters, said,
I think I'm one of the greatest putters because I
have the greatest distance controls with my putter on the greens.

(30:24):
So he knew how to hit a forty, a thirty,
a twenty and if it got straight, it would go
in the hole. Scottie Scheffler is doing it with his
irons from two hundred one eighty one fifty. Don't put
a wedge in his hand, forget it. I hate him, man,

(30:47):
oh man, his distance control. I have not seen that.
I don't think Tiger had that great of distance control.
Congrats to him. I think he's a man's man. It
was good to see I did not win my golf pool.

(31:11):
You had to either pick Scheffler or Rory. I picked
Rory and other people, oh well, such as life. I
just thought it was a good story again strong market fell,
but towards the end no biggie of note though. I

(31:32):
think maybe the blue may come off the froth of note.
When I see United Rentals down thirty, I'm what's up?
We'll see and of note the avoids up next, some
news of the day and whatever else. I'm Gary, this
is the one only Investor's.

Speaker 4 (31:51):
Edge you're listening to.

Speaker 2 (32:16):
What are you waiting for?

Speaker 4 (32:18):
One to ready?

Speaker 2 (32:25):
We can't recall pot and well, once again to Investor's Edge,

(32:52):
thanks for being with us today. Uh, you know what
I pride myself on. We haven't even brought up Jeffrey
Epstein thing. While all this thing goes on, just remember
our thoughts. We think they're full of crap that he
committed suicide. Guards were gone, no video. Doctor Boden, one

(33:25):
of the great corners out there who looked at over,
said this was no suicide. What does it come down to,
don't we we down my back and tell me it's raining?
And now this administration is trying to tell us no,
they know there's none of this and none of that.

(33:46):
Well that changed quickly. We'll see how it goes back
real quickly. On the market. I just think a little
bit of the momentums waning, that's all, and I think
some of the froth is coming off. That's my thought.

(34:10):
That's all. Not the end of the world. Netflix was
up twenty four today after being down sixty eight on Friday. Normally,
when something's down sixty eight bucks on an earnings report,
I would just ignore it for a while. Every now
and then you get this, how do I put it

(34:32):
gap to the downside, defense turn back up. We'll see
if Netflix does that. We've seen it on rare occasions,
and it's usually on big institutional names, so that was
of interest to me that it came back pretty good.

(34:54):
Also of interest this week Coca Cola, pack car Pulty, Holmes, SAP,
Texas Instruments, Capital One Financials, Sherwin Williams, Hilton Hotels, Boston Scientific,
IBM in the Dow, Google, which by the way, had

(35:16):
a good move today two days before earnings service now
Tesla's on Wednesday, Blackstone Union Pacific. I can go on
and on. Is about eleven twelve pages of earnings this week.
Stay tuned. Today, Domino's Pizza opened up big and finished down,

(35:40):
so they distributed stock on a big gap to the upside.
Yep baa in the news. I'll tell you one little
thing stood out. You know how I always say people,
business a capital if able, two very important words. If able,

(36:10):
will flow and go to places where they are treated best.
I've always wondered how this guy running California continues to
disrespect his citizens with ridiculously high taxes, income taxes, other taxes,

(36:39):
and gas taxes. They just raised them again. Anybody ever
heard in and out Burgers, Well, it's an institution in California.
They're moving from California to Tennessee, the headquarters, and they
said the reason is exactly what I am telling you,

(37:07):
treated poorly, disrespected, taking out a machete and cutting you
at the knees and taking out a mallet and hitting
you over the head. Many have left California, and you

(37:29):
know what Gavin Newsom has going for him, and they
know it. It's a fantastic state. It's gorgeous state. It's
a beautiful state. But they keep electing them. And if
other areas keep electing people that disrespect the taxpayer and

(37:51):
are what we call simple control freaks, look out, namely
in New York City, where this schmuck says we shouldn't
have billionaires. Go google how many billionaires live in New
York City. That's how many billionaires will be leaving if
this guy wins. And by the way, billionaires pay a

(38:14):
lot in taxes to pay for everything in New York City.
Oh and by the way, when they say we don't
want we don't think there should be billionaires, they don't
think there should be millionaires. That's what communists, Marxists and
socialists are all about. But I go back to what

(38:36):
I said. An institution in and out burgers a woman
who runs the place. She inherited it from family and
does a fabulous job. They're out of there. They're not
the first, they're not the last. I'm just letting you know, people,

(38:57):
business and capital will flow with it treated best. Norway
tried it big wealth tax. Instead, they said they were
gonna raise a bunch of money. They lost a ton
of money. Why wealth told Norway and we mean the

(39:22):
government to go take a flying leap through the Fiords.
That's how it rolls. Why do you think people have
been moving to Florida left and right? Simple? It treated
well here, low taxes, less regulations, crime doesn't pay, go

(39:50):
on campus and threaten somebody. See what happens to you.
Shut down a highway or a bridge, See what happens
to you. Pretty simple, We're maced. Anybody would vote for
the opposite. But welcome to the world. Hey, you have
a great evening. Drive carefully when you get home, do

(40:11):
like we do. Quite simple. Make sure you hug your family.
Make sure you hug your children. They will feel better.
You will feel better. I promise, stay well, be well
until tomorrow. Good night.

Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbom on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.