Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Kultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam sarhan
in for Gary K who's out today. Today is Thursday
July thirty first, twenty twenty five, and we have a
great show for you tonight. As always, want to thank
you very much for being here. Before we jump into
the show, I've got notes on Gary, but just also
some housekeeping. As you know, this is a show about
you and your money and all of the fun points
(00:32):
in between. Just as a quick reminder, you can go.
You can listen to the show twenty four to seven
on Gary k dot com. You can listen live or archive.
We are live Monday through Friday six to seven pm Eastern.
Also on Gary k dot com. You can follow Gary
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button or his Twitter handle is at Gary Kolbomb. Or
(00:54):
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your inbox for free email Gary ask about his money
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to Conviction Leaders dot com, which is his premium member
services or membership website, and there he provides intra day updates,
daily webcasts, and he goes really deep into a lot
(01:14):
of you know, just basically everything you hear him say
on the radio. Here you get to see him go
through it with charts and a lot of detail, and
get inter day updates and you know, after the close updates,
weekend updates.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
So on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Lots of just really really good stuff, all available at
conviction leaders dot com. All right, so notes from Gary
yesterday on radio. Gary said that he thought the broad
market was narrowing and more areas starting to give away
and break support and the moving averages, and he highlighted
the transportation stocks take her symbol, there's IYT.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Let's see we've.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Got some more of that today today meeting Today's action.
And every so often you get markets top you know,
short term tops, intermediate termtops how it is, but that's
typically it could work around big fireworks. Today we saw
several stocks Microsoft and Meta two come to mind. Microsoft's
tickers MSFT and Meta's Meta, which is Facebook's parent company.
(02:14):
They both had huge gaps on earnings. And sometimes you
see some distribution, which is some institutional selling show up
Microsoft was distributed today, but we think there's nothing wrong
with that. Just because it's so extended, Meta looks better.
But we're meaning Gary is going to look for it
to set up again after today's gap up, and we
think near term the markets are showing some headwinds, meaning
(02:37):
things can slow down a little bit. We have been
told that August and September are often very tough months.
We don't necessarily believe in that, but we always keep
that in mind as we move forward. And that's the
notes directly from Gary. Let's see what else he wants
to say. And we had a strong open today, so
(02:57):
let's talk about a week close. When you get a
strong open that gets sold into all day, which is
what happened today. Typically that means near term we hit
some resistance and obviously notwithstanding more earnings coming out that
could change the playing field. After the close, we had
KLAC ten core, Amazon reports, Apple reports, Reddit reports, Coinbase,
(03:18):
so many other ones report also. But and then of
course tomorrow morning we have the always fun jobs report.
But near term, the market's very extended, and it appears
that the market's you know, in pullback mode, which is
normal and healthy as long as it's a short and
you know, a small pullback in both size and scope.
(03:39):
And what I like to see there is size and
scope are basically you know, pulling back. Size is a
small percent decline, which I'll talk about all this in
greater detail. And then scope is a short duration doesn't
last long.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
You know.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Those are all the notes from Gary, by the way,
So let's talk about the market. What happened today?
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Right?
Speaker 2 (04:02):
So the now closed down three hundred and thirty points,
closed at forty four thousand, one thirty one. The S
and P five hundred down twenty three points to sixty
three thirty nine is where it closed, and the Nasdak
composite closed down seven points twenty one twenty two. Now
closing down seven points is no big deal in the Nasdak,
right well, normally on any given day is seven day down.
(04:25):
The seven point downday in the Nasak is no big deal.
But when you look at how much higher it was
intra day and that you reversed and closed the lower
half of the range, and today was a distribution day,
meaning volume was heavier than the prior session, and we're
so extended a little bit more than just down seven
(04:46):
points The high today was twenty one four five seven.
The low was twenty one oh seven eight. It's a
four hundred point spread in the Nasdaq composite, right, so
yes it was down seven points. But from where it's
all context, people, I mean, that's really what it comes
down to. It's all really, you know, putting things in
the proper perspective. I heard one time a difference between
(05:08):
a point of view and a perspective. The point of
view is how I look at something. A perspective is
how the other person looks at it and how I
look at it. So you can look at it from
a different perspective or a different point of view. You
can go deeper into it. But it was just one
guy trying to make sense of the difference between point
of view and perspective. And that's what the market all
day long, right, the markets can do what the market
want to do. Just about everybody that's looking at the
(05:29):
market looks at the same data. Dows up, dows down,
nasnack ups, n's that down. The difference is what we
do with the data, right, how we interpret the data
and then our actions based on that data. So we
had a big negative reversal today, again, not the end
of the world, but we'll look to see if we
get more distribution. Markets don't go straight up. Another thing
(05:50):
to keep in mind, it's normal and it's healthy to
see markets pull back, and the idea is to get small,
shallow pullbacks in both size and scope. The good news
is today's the end of the month for the month.
This is the fourth up month in a row for
the market. We broke out last month in June to
(06:11):
new all time highs in the NASNAC, and we followed
through even higher this month, and we closed the upper
half of the range. Ditto for the S and P
five hundred. This is the third month up in the row,
up in a row. Excuse me, for the S and
P five hundred. April was the upper half of the range,
but just closed down a little bit. But you broke
out to a new all time high and closed the
(06:31):
upper half middle to upper half of the range in
the S and P five hundred, predominantly, folks. This is
the end of the month, so I'll do a lot
of end of month review after I'm done with just
today's action and setting the stage for near term pullbacks
throughout the rest of the show. But Typically when you
see market don't go straight up, they pull back. And
those pullbacks, you want to see them pull into the
(06:53):
twenty one day moving average or pull into the fifty
day moving average, and those the next two levels of
support to watch for than NASDAK and the S and
P five hundred. Really just that simple. As long as
we're above those two levels, okay, we've got some room
to go, right, and of course depending on earnings, and
we've got a lot of news coming out and jobs
(07:14):
report tomorrow, so on and so forth. But for now,
the market's earned the right to pause and catch its breath,
take a breather again. Those pullbacks are size and scope.
Size is a small percent decline, anything low single digits
down two percent from a high, down four or five percent,
single digits seventy eight percent from a high. That's a pullback.
(07:35):
Ten to nineteen percent is a correction, and then over
twenty is considered a bear market. Typically for Wall Street,
you know labels. For me, this is a pullback. It's
day one of a potential pullback. We don't even know yet.
Let's give it some time. But just understand, the market's
so extended, right, that's the key. So pull and by
the way, pullbacks light shallow pullbacks and size and scope
(07:57):
where they're short in size, like a percent decline meaning
it's single digits, small low single digit percent declines and
they don't last long. That's a duration side of its
size and scope. Those are healthy. You want to see three,
four or five percent pullbacks into moving averages on light
volume and then see them bounce and go onto new
(08:19):
highs again. It gives the market and individual stocks too,
a chance to pause, catch their breath, set up again,
build new bases, shake out the later weaker hands, and
set you know, let the buyers show up again and
defend the market. And we've seen that since this rally
began in April. You've seen the Nasdaq. You can look
at the QQQ really hug the twenty one day. You've
(08:41):
had some pullbacks along the way. One time in June,
you know, it pulled them too the twenty one day,
and that was about it. Ever since then, it's been
above the twenty one day. So it's earned the right
to pull back and consolidate, right, So just take your time.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
There's no quote unquote rush.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
The markets earned the right to take a breather and
that's what it's doing for now, right, So let's look
at some of the other indices because it's the end
of month. So the Dow, the Dow is a little
bit weak. Well, it's weaker on a relative basis. A
lot of the action this year and this the last
few months have really resided in the big cap tech stocks,
(09:23):
AI stocks, semiconductor stocks, and those stocks tend to reside
in the Nasdaq and the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Right, big cap.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Tech have really been one of the primary leaders of
this entire rally. Navidia VDA, one of the strongest stocks
in the market, huge move this year in April, is
at eighty six, closed at one seventy seven. Today it's
at one seventy eight, and the after market so again
after a huge move up, and it's isolated. That's what
(09:55):
Gary means by narrowing. It's getting narrow right. The market's
earned that right to take a benefit of you know,
pause and sketches bread. So the Dow never broke out
to new highs or hasn't yet. It's still building a
long base going back to last November. When you go
down smaller market caps like the MidCap stocks, the MDY
that didn't break out either, not yet. And the small
(10:17):
cap Russell two thousand, and the IWM that's still building
a cup and handle pattern. And it's below it's twenty
one day, but above it's fifteen and above it's two hundred,
but still basing. The old high was back in November
two forty five area, and now you're at two nineteen
in the Russell, and that's two thousand stocks. So take
your time. We've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam, Sorryhan.
Speaker 5 (10:40):
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Speaker 5 (12:05):
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Speaker 2 (12:20):
This, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case
you're just joining us and just any part of the show,
you can go to gary k dot com or wind fast, forward, pause,
listen at your convenience on any device you want. Twenty
(12:41):
four to seven all available on gary k dot com.
All right, so it's the end of the month. I
love doing a lot of introspection is one of my
favorite words. Where you take your time and you pause
and you reflect and observe and measure your success and
do what Gary says with the yellow brick road, you know,
figure out how to get the os. What are your
goals and then figure out a yellow brick road to
(13:01):
get there, right, oz would be the goals, and then
figure out what you're going to be doing. Small incremental
gains day in, day out, weekend, week out, month and
month out, quarter and quarter out, year in, year out
compound marvelously over time. So again, stepping back, you know,
this was a good It was an up month for
the indices. Big cap tech led the way, and then
(13:25):
as you go down the market cap it's been still up,
but weaker than the other one. So small caps and
mid caps they're up for the month, but not up
as much, much less than the Nasdaq one hundred, the QQQ,
or the S and P five hundred for the month.
So and again, big cap tech and semiconductors tend to
(13:46):
be the areas that have led so far. Doesn't mean
it's they continue leading, but that's what's been working. Again,
part of knowing where we're going and markets are forward looking,
megan and just analyze objectively, where are we right now?
What's happened so far? And I'll give you some earnings
came out after the close, which.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
I'll get to a little bit later.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
As well, So just looking at sectors, right, So let
me go through. One of my favorite screens is I
look at ETFs. And ETFs track different sectors. They check
lots of different things, and I have a sector ETF
list and I sort it by year to date percent change.
I want to see what the strongest sectors are in
the market, and it could be anywhere. I'm again just
(14:30):
I want to look at the scoreboard, right, what areas
are leading. The eu FN, which is European Financial ETF
that measures European financials is in first place on my screen.
It's up about thirty eight percent for the year. I'm
not buying European financial stocks again. I just want to
see what's leading and then see where the money's flowing.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Right.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Next one which has had a big one this year,
metals and mining. Remember Goal GLD, Gary's Banana, silver s.
A lot of these mining stocks, these metal in mining stocks,
others copper as well as had a good year and
money's been flowing into these commodities.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
Again.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
X ME is up big this year, about twenty nine percent.
Big move this year, and again it was down a
lot earlier. This year, fell all the way to forty
five in April and then Sword and now it's up
to seventy three. It's not a clean move up. Gold
is up about twenty I think the gld's up about
twenty four percent this year. The SMH, which is the
(15:29):
semiconductor index, up about twenty two percent this year, trading
just off record highs that were hit earlier this week.
Steel stocks are pulling back but had a good run
up about twenty percent this year. The Industrials X Steel
stocks are SLX the industrials the XLI is up about
fifteen percent this year. Okay, solar stocks up about thirteen
(15:54):
percent this year. Tan is an ETF to track solar stocks.
And again these are not by recommendations. These are not anything.
You know, everything is general and informational and educational purposes only.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
It's just what's the scoreboard? You know, if you like sports,
doesn't matter what the sport is that you're watching. There's
leaders and there's laggards. People that in the first place,
second place start, you know, same thing. Here, where's the
money flowing? What areas are leading? That's what I'm all about.
I'd love to find leading stocks. And one of my
websites is find leading stocks dot com right, and I
(16:30):
do all this work because it gives me an edge.
Where's the money I just have? I always like to
say the market is speaking, and then ask are you listening?
The market's not verbally speaking to us, just like humans,
most of our communication is non verbal. The market's not
talking in verbal terms, but it's if you learn how
to listen to it and getting sync with it or
(16:51):
getting hard money with it. Is my way of saying,
instead of harmony, it's hard money with the market. You
can pick up on cues right. The XLU they showed
up my report a few weeks go, a few days ago,
actually a week and a half ago, and it's new
highs twelve, up twelve and a half percent for the year.
The financials XLF up about nine percent for the year.
(17:11):
The material stocks XLB selling off the last few days,
up about five percent for the year, and that's really
it for up significantly for the year. The stables consumer
staples XLP down, sorry, it's up two percent for the year.
It's below the fifty and blow the two hundred day.
It's lagging. The energy stector xl E is up about
(17:34):
two percent for the year, lagging its below its two
hundred day moving average.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
Right.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
A few other areas, junk bonds J and K it's
up about a percent for the year. The transportation stocks
were up more, but now they're down four and a
half percent. Sorry, I was looking at the wrong thing.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
They're let me go back.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
Junk bonds are up about a percent, yeah, one point
four percent for the year. The energy stocks the XL
is of about two point three percent. There it goes,
transportation stocks up about a percent for the year. Then
the small regional banks kre selling off a little bit again.
Remember those small cap stocks they told you the russells
on they're performing. Not surprising here these small regional banks
(18:17):
KR it's up about point seventy three percent, so less
than one percent for the year.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
And that's it.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Everything else now is negative for the year. The retail
stocks XRT down for the year. The discretionary stocks consumer
discretion and xl Y down. That was the retail stocks
from down toero point twenty five percent. This is down
half a percent for the year. Housing stocks down four
point sorry, one point five percent for the year. The
XHPB XHB is down one point five percent for the year.
(18:47):
The XOP and oil and gas exploration stocks down.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
What is that.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Let's see down about two percent for the year. The XLV,
which is a healthcare stock, down about two and a
half percent for the year. The biotech stocks down about
four percent for the year. Let's see here OIH oil
Services down about eight point four percent for the year.
And that's about it. So you've got leading areas like
(19:14):
the semiconductors, and you got lagging areas that I want
to stay away from, like energy. It's just not working
right now, doesn't mean it won't work in the future.
Just right now areas that I'm avoiding. So knowing where
to be involved in, knowing what areas are being accumulated,
where the institutions are buying, and know what areas are
being distributed, what institutions are selling, super important areas to avoid.
(19:38):
And I don't want to buy stocks that are going down.
Other people do it fine, no problem for each their own.
I also say in my book there's an infinite number
of ways to make money in the market. Your jobs
to find one that works for you. Right, So that's
my sector analysis right there, real fast. I gave you
the tickers that I use, the ETPs. You can track them.
It's sorted by year to d eight percent change. And
(19:59):
it's just again month in review, what's working year to
date review? Not just look at the month. I want
to look at the year, right, what's the scoreboard, what's
in first place, what's in second place, what's in third place?
So on and so forth? So areas, and then are
these areas extended? These leading areas and the areas.
Speaker 3 (20:21):
To avoid the laggards?
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Are they over sold? And so on and so a
lot of nuances there, but just high level. Okay, we
know money's flowing into big cap tech. That's good to know.
Near term we're very extended, possibly pulling back here the
beginning of it. What could be a pullback with this
big reversal today?
Speaker 3 (20:42):
All right, so.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. Got
some after hours earnings, some a lot more news. More
month in review. I'm adam, sorryhand, this is the one
and only investor's.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
Edge you're listening to. America is talking callow investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
You's gotta be beat with the crowd.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
Is just on his feet here, just said your on
a boy with Gary Caldbob.
Speaker 8 (21:23):
He come highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you
talk to him, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
In case you're just joining us or missed any part
of the show, you can go to Gary k dot
com the Wine Fast Forward listen at your convenience anytime
you want, from anywhere you want, on any device you want.
All right, after the clothes, let's talk about some news.
First off, news today, well, after the clothes, we had
lots of Ernie's come out, and I'll go through some
of them now. But news Figma figs, a new ipo
(22:03):
was priced at thirty three. Bucks started trading and closed
upper half of the range one point fifteen, and in
the after hours it's now one twenty one, up another
five percent after hours, and they're big on helping people
design things online. It's hot ipo. We'll see what happens
going forward. All right, after the close, Amazon reported earnings.
(22:27):
Their stock is down about four percent after hours. Let
me double check to make sure that's right, yep, but
down about three point eight percent after reporting earnings. Let's
see what happened here. Amazon's gloomy earnings forecast overshadows better
than expected results. All right, so guidance market didn't like guidance.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
All right, it happens.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
All right, Apple's gonna report, they haven't reported yet. Let's
see some other ones. Coinbase, COI, Amazon is AMZN. Coinbase
down seven and a half percent close at three seventy seven.
It's trading in the aftermarket at three forty eight right now,
and they're down after reporting earnings. I'm going to speak
(23:12):
about what I look for during earning season in a
few minutes, because it's really important. As you go through
these stocks, you ask yourself, oh, okay, what happened? You know,
what's happening with the market, what matters right? And what
are institutional investors, the professional ones looking for. So cloud
flare ne Et is a ticker. It's up about seven
(23:36):
point three percent after hours close at two o seven,
is trading at two two to two right now, two
twenty two in the aftermarket, two twenty three, right thereabouts,
big move up. What we're looking for, folks, There's three
things I look for. Number one, the reaction to the
numbers My most important variable. Why because the earnings by
(23:58):
definition rear view mirror phenomenon. Oh I earned a dollar
last quarter, I earned ten dollars. Whatever the numbers are
tells you what happened last quarter. The market, by design,
is a forward looking mechanism, and a forward looking mechanism,
it's coming. It's pricing in what's six, nine, twelve months
(24:18):
out right. So the data matters, but the reaction to
that news matters a lot more so when I see
a stock like today, for example, you can look at
ticker simple race are Acee Ferrari gap down eleven percent
on monstrous volume. That's no bueno, that's not good. Average
(24:40):
volume for Race is three hundred and sixteen thousand shares.
Today you had two zero point three million, so instead
of three hundred thousand shares, you had over two million shares,
and the stock's down eleven percent and a little love
tap here to make matters even worse for anyone that
bought this thing recently. It just broke out of a
(25:01):
really nice base just a few days ago, six seventy eight,
nine days ago, and it was looking really good coming
into earnings. By the way, another reason why I don't
really hold stocks unless if I have a big enough
cushion going into arneys ten percent or more at least,
if not twenty percent, but ten percent or more is chip.
(25:22):
Typically my threshold. Will I hold a stock if I'm
less than a ten percent cushion, Sure, but it's rare
for me. I like to have a cushion in the
event it does this right, Because if I was up
ten percent coming into earnings and it goes down eleven,
all right, I'm okay.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
I lost a little bit.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
One percent, no big deal, two percent, no big depending
on the gap. But when you see, on the other hand,
something like eBay. You know, Microsoft gapped up today, Meta
gapped up today after reporting earnings Wednesday after the close,
but eBay, another one, gaps up eighteen percent today, hits
an all time high on monster volume. Average volume for
(26:03):
eBay's five point three million shares today was almost twenty million,
and the stock's up eighteen percent all time. Hyhes, folks.
That is as the breakaway gap. It's exactly what I'm
looking for when I look at earnings. That's the reaction
to the news. That's number one. Is it big gap up,
big dap, gap down?
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Or what happens?
Speaker 2 (26:24):
Or is it a snows fast nothing happens? Step two
or the next thing. I look at, what were the
numbers sales and earnings this year compared to the same
period last year. So for eBay, for example, they earned
a dollar thirty seven this year that quarter that ended
June thirtieth. The same period quarter ending June thirtieth, twenty
(26:45):
twenty four, they earned a dollar eighteen, So one thirty
seven this year one eighteen last year, growth of sixteen percent.
Earnings and sales grew by six percent. Stock is up
eighteen percent of the news, right, So the first thing
I want to look at.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Is the reactions.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Second things, what are the actual numbers? Did they grow
year over year? Remember you want to compare apples to apples.
I'll get the apple in a second year because the
numbers are just coming out now or no, not even
not yet. Sorry, the stock's up a little bit about
pointy eighty percent, but the results are coming.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
Down in a few minutes.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
When you look at the numbers year over year, you're
comparing the second quarter of twenty twenty five to the
second quarter of twenty twenty four. Why because the fourth
quarter tends to be a strong quarter for retail, but
the first quarter is a week quarter, So it's not
accurate to compare Q one to Q four for retail stocks, right,
(27:42):
same is true for other stocks. And under other industries.
I want to look at this quarter, same period this
year versus the same period last year and look for
year over year growth. That makes sense, So Q one
of twenty five compared to Q one and twenty four,
Q two twenty five, Q two twenty four, so on
and so forth, sales earnings.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
Did we get growth? Not growth?
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Third thing I look for guidance. Actually, I'll give you
four things. I said three to here's four. What is
the company bullish on its own future? Management?
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Are they bullish?
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Are they not?
Speaker 3 (28:14):
Or they perish? You know that matters why.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Because if the company's barish on its own future, why
would investors be bullish on it? You know?
Speaker 3 (28:26):
That's big.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Next thing I look at is do they beat estimates?
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Right, I'm gonna give you actually five they beat estimates
or do they miss estimates?
Speaker 2 (28:39):
So reaction to numbers. First thing I look at, it's numbers,
year over year growth or no growth?
Speaker 3 (28:47):
Estimates?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Guidance? Do they beat estimates? They have guidance? Those are
four things so far up there's Apple's numbers. And the
fifth thing I look for it it's just something that
I like to see me it's what did the stock
do with respect to other stocks, it's peers and the
market's reaction. All right, those are five big things I
(29:11):
look for. In other words, are all retail stocks doing well?
Are all semiconductor stocks doing well? Are they all doing bad?
So on?
Speaker 3 (29:19):
And so forth.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
AI stocks a lot of them gapping up, gapping down.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
You know.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
That's I try to connect the dots that way. But
the four big things, it's the reaction to the news.
You can write it down if you want. The numbers
year over year, did it beat earnings estimates? Did it
raise guidance and then guidance raise guidance, lower guidance. You know,
they futre bullship bearers about their future.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
And so on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
All right, Apple, Apple's earnings are out. Apple is up
one point three percent as of right now, up almost
two percent. Now, it's very fluid because the numbers just
came out and they said greater China revenue fifteen point
three seven billion versus fifteen point one to nine billion
was the estimate. All right, that's a big piece of it.
Let's see, it's up oneo point six percent now, so
(30:03):
it's on off a little bit. We'll see one point
eight percent.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
So it's steady.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
It's up about two percent. Yes, it's steady at two percent.
I'll dive in deeper. The numbers just broke q Apple three, Okay.
iPhone revenue was forty four point five to eight billion
estimates was forty billion. All right, looks like the numbers
that I've beaten. The stocks up a little bit. That
should bode well for the market. It's up about two
(30:27):
and a half percent now, so we'll see again putting
the pieces of the puzzle together. Super important. Other stocks
that reported after the close today. Reddit's up big. You've
got mstr which is micro Strategy. They're big on bitcoin.
They're up about a percent one point three three percent.
(30:47):
See other stocks that reported. We spoke about cloud Flare,
which was net rokuro Ku is a ticker there that's
up about four point seventy five percent, up almost about
five percent after hours after reporting earnings. That's Roku ro Ku.
And again when you look at the numbers, the reaction guidance, well,
(31:10):
lots of other ones too. First Solar came out with
numbers FSLR. Let's see they're up about four percent or
four point two percent there, you know, look for themes.
Arm came out. ARM it's a big chip manufacturer for
AI stocks and semiconductors, and it gopped down thirteen percent today. Okay,
(31:30):
what does that mean for other AI stocks? They haven't report,
lots of them haven't reported yet, but we'll see, you
know after the close. Today we had let's see KLAC
ten Core, another semiconductor stock, down about two percent. So
you had ARM report earnings yesterday, KLA se today, Boltimore
down again. That's what I mean by connecting the dots.
All right, up next, We've got a lot more to cover.
(31:52):
I'm Adam Sarhand.
Speaker 7 (31:53):
This is the one and only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
You're listening to.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
What are you waiting for?
Speaker 4 (32:18):
One?
Speaker 1 (32:20):
Ready?
Speaker 4 (32:25):
We can't reculbot.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam, Sorry,
Han in for Gary k who's out today. All right,
So a lot going on. End of the month, right,
I was like to the end of the month review,
look at what's happening, what's working, what's not working, so
on and so forth. And we went through a lot
of sectors, went through some stocks and after hours news
(32:59):
excuse me, after hours earnings came out. It's lots of
these stocks we'll see how they trade tomorrow. The two
big ones. Apple up about two percent as of right now,
that will probably change by the open tomorrow, and then
Amazon's down about three percent. Lots of times, folks these
after hours numbers. It's a thinner market, so they can
(33:20):
vary greatly. But the markets extended. We saw a big
negative reversal today. The Nasdak at the high was up
much more closed lower half of the range on heavier volumes.
It was a distribution day some of these stocks. Again,
looking at the reaction to earnings, some of these leading
(33:41):
stocks that have been leading so far got hit this
earning season. Not all of them, but some of them.
Netflix example, for an example, or as an example, excuse me.
Back in April bottom at eight twenty one, jumped to
thirteen forty one by the end of June. Now then
it reported earnings and it's just been drifting lower since.
Closed today at eleven fifty nine. The high was thirteen
(34:02):
forty one. Spotify spot another big leader. This guy gapped
down on earnings. He was at four to seventy five
back in April. Rallied up to seven eighty five at
the end of June and then it's just been slowly
pulling back as well. Broke the fifty day moving average
and then gap down after reporting earnings a few days ago,
(34:24):
and now he's at six twenty six and the high
was sevent eighty five. He was a leader, but broke
the fifty race race gap down big today. Was somewhat
of a leader, had a good breakout from a few
days ago, and then just got walloped. So again, take
(34:46):
your time, find those leaders and you can go through them.
One of the things that I like to do a lot,
I just go on price, you know, look at movers
that are up and or to buy price change like
percent change, and find out where the big money's flowing.
Like today n Egg new egg commerce stock that went
(35:08):
from three dollars to sixty three since April. Somebody's in
there buying it. It's not me, they lose money. It's
an IT company. They provide online retail services enabling customers
to buy it computer components, consumer electronics. I think it's
like the this used to be one of the other
I forget what they used to be called, but they
(35:28):
sell computer parts like RAM and you know, laptop stuff
like that. Anyway, stock has a huge move it's could
be one of those short sale ones and meme stocks
that were popular just recently. I'm not sure about that,
but all I know just looking for big movers, right,
and I'm not buying this stock up here at sixty three,
when just a week and a half ago it was
(35:48):
in the thirties. I thinks, yesterday gaps down.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
Let's see here.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Twenty percent yesterday and then rallies forty one percent today.
Something's going on there that's not normal.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
I just stay away. But I want to find leaders.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
I want to just see where the money's flowing in
ninety nine percent of time. Warren Buffett talks about this
the circle of competence. Ninet nine percent of time, I
say no, no, your area of competence, and if it's
not in your air of confidence or your air of expertise, no,
just master the art of saying no. It's liberating, it's
a free it's a superpower. I look at hundreds of stocks,
if not thousands of stocks every week. No no, no, no. Oh,
(36:28):
that's a good one.
Speaker 3 (36:29):
But it's so rare.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
When I buy a house, I don't buy houses often,
but when I over the decades, I've bought several houses
and sold them, bought them. And you know, I own
a few houses, and when I buy a house, I
might take a year before I actually pull the trigger.
I'll look at fifty houses, forty houses. No, no, no, no, no,
find a diamond the rough. Oh okay, then yes, but
(36:56):
vast majority of houses. I'm looking for the entrant. No,
and that's okay. I'm waiting for the right criteria. Next
one that was up big today Applied Digital APLD up
thirty one percent, big gap up today, earning on earnings
frge forge Global. This guy is a thinner trader, but
up thirty percent today. Broke out of a base. American
(37:19):
Superconductor AMSC. This guy was up twenty nine percent today,
big huge gap up. Wasn't a breakout, It broke out
a while ago above thirty seven dollars thirty eight dollars.
Now it's all they up.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
To fifty six. But huge move up. PI.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Another stock was up big today, twenty six percent. RSI
huge move today, up twenty five percent on monstrous volume.
Average volume is one point two million shares. This guy
was up about on volume about eleven million shares. Average
volumes one point two So clearly that shows you the
big institutions are in their buying, and again, I'm not
going to buy that RSI. It's too extended for me.
(37:57):
But that's okay. At least I know where than mine.
He's flowing cgnx uh twenty percent today. I'm not buying it.
That's okay.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
MOD. It takes me two minutes to scroll through these things.
Speaker 2 (38:11):
I just look at the you know, stocks that move
more than two percent for the day up like you know,
the highest movers all the way down to about one
or two percent, depending on the day. If it's a
quiet day different. But if it's a big swing day
like today, I want to find the market's down. I
want to find the stocks that were up and the
stocks that are up on volume. MOD another one up
(38:32):
eighty percent. Again not buy, say not, there's no buy recommendation,
just showing myself where the volume and price?
Speaker 3 (38:39):
Where's the price, what's where's the money moving?
Speaker 2 (38:42):
MOD four point five million shares today, average volume, million
shares earning the EPs writing from Investors Business, he's ninety nine,
compositor writing it's ninety four.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
It's great.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
eBay, huge gap up, spoke about that average volume five
point three million chairs gaps up on almost twenty million
shares today to a new all time I on earnings
CHRW up eighteen percent, huge move and breaks out on volume.
Carvana reports earnings gaps up. Seevna as a ticker there
(39:18):
up seventeen percent ten almost eleven million shares, average volumes
three million shares. Shows you like Gary says, it's not
Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying. Earnings are
up eight hundred and fourteen percent year over year, sales
are up forty two percent. I'm not I didn't buy
this today, but at least I want to know. I
want to see it, and it's easy.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
It's free.
Speaker 2 (39:38):
You can just sort by stocks that are up, you know,
the biggest percent movers for the day. Let's see what else.
IDV another one that jumped out at me, upset sixteen
percent today, big gap up on earnings. Earnings were only
up six percent.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
STOT gap up.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
Al n Y biotech company are were down forty three
percent and the stock was up fifteen percent. Does RNA
stock for whatever they do? But we're running out of time.
End of the month markets extended. I'm expecting a little
bit of a pullback here. I want to thank you,
Thank everybody for listening. I believe Garby back tomorrow. It's
(40:17):
always This is a pleasure, and I'll speak to everybody
again soon.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Kult's mom on
Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's
garyka dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Kultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam sarhan
in for Gary K who's out today. Today is Thursday
July thirty first, twenty twenty five, and we have a
great show for you tonight. As always, want to thank
you very much for being here. Before we jump into
the show, I've got notes on Gary, but just also
some housekeeping. As you know, this is a show about
you and your money and all of the fun points
(00:32):
in between. Just as a quick reminder, you can go.
You can listen to the show twenty four to seven
on Gary k dot com. You can listen live or archive.
We are live Monday through Friday six to seven pm Eastern.
Also on Gary k dot com. You can follow Gary
on x formally known as Twitter by just pressing the
button or his Twitter handle is at Gary Kolbomb. Or
(00:54):
you can subscribe to get Gary's morning notes and directed
your inbox for free email Gary ask about his money
management services, or if you want more, you can go
to Conviction Leaders dot com, which is his premium member
services or membership website, and there he provides intra day updates,
daily webcasts, and he goes really deep into a lot
(01:14):
of you know, just basically everything you hear him say
on the radio. Here you get to see him go
through it with charts and a lot of detail, and
get inter day updates and you know, after the close updates,
weekend updates.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
So on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Lots of just really really good stuff, all available at
conviction leaders dot com. All right, so notes from Gary
yesterday on radio. Gary said that he thought the broad
market was narrowing and more areas starting to give away
and break support and the moving averages, and he highlighted
the transportation stocks take her symbol, there's IYT.
Speaker 3 (01:47):
Let's see we've.
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Got some more of that today today meeting Today's action.
And every so often you get markets top you know,
short term tops, intermediate termtops how it is, but that's
typically it could work around big fireworks. Today we saw
several stocks Microsoft and Meta two come to mind. Microsoft's
tickers MSFT and Meta's Meta, which is Facebook's parent company.
(02:14):
They both had huge gaps on earnings. And sometimes you
see some distribution, which is some institutional selling show up
Microsoft was distributed today, but we think there's nothing wrong
with that. Just because it's so extended, Meta looks better.
But we're meaning Gary is going to look for it
to set up again after today's gap up, and we
think near term the markets are showing some headwinds, meaning
(02:37):
things can slow down a little bit. We have been
told that August and September are often very tough months.
We don't necessarily believe in that, but we always keep
that in mind as we move forward. And that's the
notes directly from Gary. Let's see what else he wants
to say. And we had a strong open today, so
(02:57):
let's talk about a week close. When you get a
strong open that gets sold into all day, which is
what happened today. Typically that means near term we hit
some resistance and obviously notwithstanding more earnings coming out that
could change the playing field. After the close, we had
KLAC ten core, Amazon reports, Apple reports, Reddit reports, Coinbase,
(03:18):
so many other ones report also. But and then of
course tomorrow morning we have the always fun jobs report.
But near term, the market's very extended, and it appears
that the market's you know, in pullback mode, which is
normal and healthy as long as it's a short and
you know, a small pullback in both size and scope.
(03:39):
And what I like to see there is size and
scope are basically you know, pulling back. Size is a
small percent decline, which I'll talk about all this in
greater detail. And then scope is a short duration doesn't
last long.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
You know.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Those are all the notes from Gary, by the way,
So let's talk about the market. What happened today?
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Right?
Speaker 2 (04:02):
So the now closed down three hundred and thirty points,
closed at forty four thousand, one thirty one. The S
and P five hundred down twenty three points to sixty
three thirty nine is where it closed, and the Nasdak
composite closed down seven points twenty one twenty two. Now
closing down seven points is no big deal in the Nasdak,
right well, normally on any given day is seven day down.
(04:25):
The seven point downday in the Nasak is no big deal.
But when you look at how much higher it was
intra day and that you reversed and closed the lower
half of the range, and today was a distribution day,
meaning volume was heavier than the prior session, and we're
so extended a little bit more than just down seven
(04:46):
points The high today was twenty one four five seven.
The low was twenty one oh seven eight. It's a
four hundred point spread in the Nasdaq composite, right, so
yes it was down seven points. But from where it's
all context, people, I mean, that's really what it comes
down to. It's all really, you know, putting things in
the proper perspective. I heard one time a difference between
(05:08):
a point of view and a perspective. The point of
view is how I look at something. A perspective is
how the other person looks at it and how I
look at it. So you can look at it from
a different perspective or a different point of view. You
can go deeper into it. But it was just one
guy trying to make sense of the difference between point
of view and perspective. And that's what the market all
day long, right, the markets can do what the market
want to do. Just about everybody that's looking at the
(05:29):
market looks at the same data. Dows up, dows down,
nasnack ups, n's that down. The difference is what we
do with the data, right, how we interpret the data
and then our actions based on that data. So we
had a big negative reversal today, again, not the end
of the world, but we'll look to see if we
get more distribution. Markets don't go straight up. Another thing
(05:50):
to keep in mind, it's normal and it's healthy to
see markets pull back, and the idea is to get small,
shallow pullbacks in both size and scope. The good news
is today's the end of the month for the month.
This is the fourth up month in a row for
the market. We broke out last month in June to
(06:11):
new all time highs in the NASNAC, and we followed
through even higher this month, and we closed the upper
half of the range. Ditto for the S and P
five hundred. This is the third month up in the row,
up in a row. Excuse me, for the S and
P five hundred. April was the upper half of the range,
but just closed down a little bit. But you broke
out to a new all time high and closed the
(06:31):
upper half middle to upper half of the range in
the S and P five hundred, predominantly, folks. This is
the end of the month, so I'll do a lot
of end of month review after I'm done with just
today's action and setting the stage for near term pullbacks
throughout the rest of the show. But Typically when you
see market don't go straight up, they pull back. And
those pullbacks, you want to see them pull into the
(06:53):
twenty one day moving average or pull into the fifty
day moving average, and those the next two levels of
support to watch for than NASDAK and the S and
P five hundred. Really just that simple. As long as
we're above those two levels, okay, we've got some room
to go, right, and of course depending on earnings, and
we've got a lot of news coming out and jobs
(07:14):
report tomorrow, so on and so forth. But for now,
the market's earned the right to pause and catch its breath,
take a breather again. Those pullbacks are size and scope.
Size is a small percent decline, anything low single digits
down two percent from a high, down four or five percent,
single digits seventy eight percent from a high. That's a pullback.
(07:35):
Ten to nineteen percent is a correction, and then over
twenty is considered a bear market. Typically for Wall Street,
you know labels. For me, this is a pullback. It's
day one of a potential pullback. We don't even know yet.
Let's give it some time. But just understand, the market's
so extended, right, that's the key. So pull and by
the way, pullbacks light shallow pullbacks and size and scope
(07:57):
where they're short in size, like a percent decline meaning
it's single digits, small low single digit percent declines and
they don't last long. That's a duration side of its
size and scope. Those are healthy. You want to see three,
four or five percent pullbacks into moving averages on light
volume and then see them bounce and go onto new
(08:19):
highs again. It gives the market and individual stocks too,
a chance to pause, catch their breath, set up again,
build new bases, shake out the later weaker hands, and
set you know, let the buyers show up again and
defend the market. And we've seen that since this rally
began in April. You've seen the Nasdaq. You can look
at the QQQ really hug the twenty one day. You've
(08:41):
had some pullbacks along the way. One time in June,
you know, it pulled them too the twenty one day,
and that was about it. Ever since then, it's been
above the twenty one day. So it's earned the right
to pull back and consolidate, right, So just take your time.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
There's no quote unquote rush.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
The markets earned the right to take a breather and
that's what it's doing for now, right, So let's look
at some of the other indices because it's the end
of month. So the Dow, the Dow is a little
bit weak. Well, it's weaker on a relative basis. A
lot of the action this year and this the last
few months have really resided in the big cap tech stocks,
(09:23):
AI stocks, semiconductor stocks, and those stocks tend to reside
in the Nasdaq and the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Right, big cap.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Tech have really been one of the primary leaders of
this entire rally. Navidia VDA, one of the strongest stocks
in the market, huge move this year in April, is
at eighty six, closed at one seventy seven. Today it's
at one seventy eight, and the after market so again
after a huge move up, and it's isolated. That's what
(09:55):
Gary means by narrowing. It's getting narrow right. The market's
earned that right to take a benefit of you know,
pause and sketches bread. So the Dow never broke out
to new highs or hasn't yet. It's still building a
long base going back to last November. When you go
down smaller market caps like the MidCap stocks, the MDY
that didn't break out either, not yet. And the small
(10:17):
cap Russell two thousand, and the IWM that's still building
a cup and handle pattern. And it's below it's twenty
one day, but above it's fifteen and above it's two hundred,
but still basing. The old high was back in November
two forty five area, and now you're at two nineteen
in the Russell, and that's two thousand stocks. So take
your time. We've got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam, Sorryhan.
Speaker 5 (10:40):
This is the one and only Investor's Edge.
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Speaker 5 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells work.
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With Gary called bomb. It doesn't get better than.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
This, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case
you're just joining us and just any part of the show,
you can go to gary k dot com or wind fast, forward, pause,
listen at your convenience on any device you want. Twenty
(12:41):
four to seven all available on gary k dot com.
All right, so it's the end of the month. I
love doing a lot of introspection is one of my
favorite words. Where you take your time and you pause
and you reflect and observe and measure your success and
do what Gary says with the yellow brick road, you know,
figure out how to get the os. What are your
goals and then figure out a yellow brick road to
(13:01):
get there, right, oz would be the goals, and then
figure out what you're going to be doing. Small incremental
gains day in, day out, weekend, week out, month and
month out, quarter and quarter out, year in, year out
compound marvelously over time. So again, stepping back, you know,
this was a good It was an up month for
the indices. Big cap tech led the way, and then
(13:25):
as you go down the market cap it's been still up,
but weaker than the other one. So small caps and
mid caps they're up for the month, but not up
as much, much less than the Nasdaq one hundred, the QQQ,
or the S and P five hundred for the month.
So and again, big cap tech and semiconductors tend to
(13:46):
be the areas that have led so far. Doesn't mean
it's they continue leading, but that's what's been working. Again,
part of knowing where we're going and markets are forward looking,
megan and just analyze objectively, where are we right now?
What's happened so far? And I'll give you some earnings
came out after the close, which.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
I'll get to a little bit later.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
As well, So just looking at sectors, right, So let
me go through. One of my favorite screens is I
look at ETFs. And ETFs track different sectors. They check
lots of different things, and I have a sector ETF
list and I sort it by year to date percent change.
I want to see what the strongest sectors are in
the market, and it could be anywhere. I'm again just
(14:30):
I want to look at the scoreboard, right, what areas
are leading. The eu FN, which is European Financial ETF
that measures European financials is in first place on my screen.
It's up about thirty eight percent for the year. I'm
not buying European financial stocks again. I just want to
see what's leading and then see where the money's flowing.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
Right.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Next one which has had a big one this year,
metals and mining. Remember Goal GLD, Gary's Banana, silver s.
A lot of these mining stocks, these metal in mining stocks,
others copper as well as had a good year and
money's been flowing into these commodities.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
Again.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
X ME is up big this year, about twenty nine percent.
Big move this year, and again it was down a
lot earlier. This year, fell all the way to forty
five in April and then Sword and now it's up
to seventy three. It's not a clean move up. Gold
is up about twenty I think the gld's up about
twenty four percent this year. The SMH, which is the
(15:29):
semiconductor index, up about twenty two percent this year, trading
just off record highs that were hit earlier this week.
Steel stocks are pulling back but had a good run
up about twenty percent this year. The Industrials X Steel
stocks are SLX the industrials the XLI is up about
fifteen percent this year. Okay, solar stocks up about thirteen
(15:54):
percent this year. Tan is an ETF to track solar stocks.
And again these are not by recommendations. These are not anything.
You know, everything is general and informational and educational purposes only.
Speaker 3 (16:07):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
It's just what's the scoreboard? You know, if you like sports,
doesn't matter what the sport is that you're watching. There's
leaders and there's laggards. People that in the first place,
second place start, you know, same thing. Here, where's the
money flowing? What areas are leading? That's what I'm all about.
I'd love to find leading stocks. And one of my
websites is find leading stocks dot com right, and I
(16:30):
do all this work because it gives me an edge.
Where's the money I just have? I always like to
say the market is speaking, and then ask are you listening?
The market's not verbally speaking to us, just like humans,
most of our communication is non verbal. The market's not
talking in verbal terms, but it's if you learn how
to listen to it and getting sync with it or
(16:51):
getting hard money with it. Is my way of saying,
instead of harmony, it's hard money with the market. You
can pick up on cues right. The XLU they showed
up my report a few weeks go, a few days ago,
actually a week and a half ago, and it's new
highs twelve, up twelve and a half percent for the year.
The financials XLF up about nine percent for the year.
(17:11):
The material stocks XLB selling off the last few days,
up about five percent for the year, and that's really
it for up significantly for the year. The stables consumer
staples XLP down, sorry, it's up two percent for the year.
It's below the fifty and blow the two hundred day.
It's lagging. The energy stector xl E is up about
(17:34):
two percent for the year, lagging its below its two
hundred day moving average.
Speaker 3 (17:38):
Right.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
A few other areas, junk bonds J and K it's
up about a percent for the year. The transportation stocks
were up more, but now they're down four and a
half percent. Sorry, I was looking at the wrong thing.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
They're let me go back.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
Junk bonds are up about a percent, yeah, one point
four percent for the year. The energy stocks the XL
is of about two point three percent. There it goes,
transportation stocks up about a percent for the year. Then
the small regional banks kre selling off a little bit again.
Remember those small cap stocks they told you the russells
on they're performing. Not surprising here these small regional banks
(18:17):
KR it's up about point seventy three percent, so less
than one percent for the year.
Speaker 3 (18:22):
And that's it.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Everything else now is negative for the year. The retail
stocks XRT down for the year. The discretionary stocks consumer
discretion and xl Y down. That was the retail stocks
from down toero point twenty five percent. This is down
half a percent for the year. Housing stocks down four
point sorry, one point five percent for the year. The
XHPB XHB is down one point five percent for the year.
(18:47):
The XOP and oil and gas exploration stocks down.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
What is that.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
Let's see down about two percent for the year. The XLV,
which is a healthcare stock, down about two and a
half percent for the year. The biotech stocks down about
four percent for the year. Let's see here OIH oil
Services down about eight point four percent for the year.
And that's about it. So you've got leading areas like
(19:14):
the semiconductors, and you got lagging areas that I want
to stay away from, like energy. It's just not working
right now, doesn't mean it won't work in the future.
Just right now areas that I'm avoiding. So knowing where
to be involved in, knowing what areas are being accumulated,
where the institutions are buying, and know what areas are
being distributed, what institutions are selling, super important areas to avoid.
(19:38):
And I don't want to buy stocks that are going down.
Other people do it fine, no problem for each their own.
I also say in my book there's an infinite number
of ways to make money in the market. Your jobs
to find one that works for you. Right, So that's
my sector analysis right there, real fast. I gave you
the tickers that I use, the ETPs. You can track them.
It's sorted by year to d eight percent change. And
(19:59):
it's just again month in review, what's working year to
date review? Not just look at the month. I want
to look at the year, right, what's the scoreboard, what's
in first place, what's in second place, what's in third place?
So on and so forth? So areas, and then are
these areas extended? These leading areas and the areas.
Speaker 3 (20:21):
To avoid the laggards?
Speaker 2 (20:22):
Are they over sold? And so on and so a
lot of nuances there, but just high level. Okay, we
know money's flowing into big cap tech. That's good to know.
Near term we're very extended, possibly pulling back here the
beginning of it. What could be a pullback with this
big reversal today?
Speaker 3 (20:42):
All right, so.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Up next, we've got a lot more to cover. Got
some after hours earnings, some a lot more news. More
month in review. I'm adam, sorryhand, this is the one
and only investor's.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
Edge you're listening to. America is talking callow investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
You's gotta be beat with the crowd.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
Is just on his feet here, just said your on
a boy with Gary Caldbob.
Speaker 8 (21:23):
He come highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you
talk to him, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
In case you're just joining us or missed any part
of the show, you can go to Gary k dot
com the Wine Fast Forward listen at your convenience anytime
you want, from anywhere you want, on any device you want.
All right, after the clothes, let's talk about some news.
First off, news today, well, after the clothes, we had
lots of Ernie's come out, and I'll go through some
of them now. But news Figma figs, a new ipo
(22:03):
was priced at thirty three. Bucks started trading and closed
upper half of the range one point fifteen, and in
the after hours it's now one twenty one, up another
five percent after hours, and they're big on helping people
design things online. It's hot ipo. We'll see what happens
going forward. All right, after the close, Amazon reported earnings.
(22:27):
Their stock is down about four percent after hours. Let
me double check to make sure that's right, yep, but
down about three point eight percent after reporting earnings. Let's
see what happened here. Amazon's gloomy earnings forecast overshadows better
than expected results. All right, so guidance market didn't like guidance.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
All right, it happens.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
All right, Apple's gonna report, they haven't reported yet. Let's
see some other ones. Coinbase, COI, Amazon is AMZN. Coinbase
down seven and a half percent close at three seventy seven.
It's trading in the aftermarket at three forty eight right now,
and they're down after reporting earnings. I'm going to speak
(23:12):
about what I look for during earning season in a
few minutes, because it's really important. As you go through
these stocks, you ask yourself, oh, okay, what happened? You know,
what's happening with the market, what matters right? And what
are institutional investors, the professional ones looking for. So cloud
flare ne Et is a ticker. It's up about seven
(23:36):
point three percent after hours close at two o seven,
is trading at two two to two right now, two
twenty two in the aftermarket, two twenty three, right thereabouts,
big move up. What we're looking for, folks, There's three
things I look for. Number one, the reaction to the
numbers My most important variable. Why because the earnings by
(23:58):
definition rear view mirror phenomenon. Oh I earned a dollar
last quarter, I earned ten dollars. Whatever the numbers are
tells you what happened last quarter. The market, by design,
is a forward looking mechanism, and a forward looking mechanism,
it's coming. It's pricing in what's six, nine, twelve months
(24:18):
out right. So the data matters, but the reaction to
that news matters a lot more so when I see
a stock like today, for example, you can look at
ticker simple race are Acee Ferrari gap down eleven percent
on monstrous volume. That's no bueno, that's not good. Average
(24:40):
volume for Race is three hundred and sixteen thousand shares.
Today you had two zero point three million, so instead
of three hundred thousand shares, you had over two million shares,
and the stock's down eleven percent and a little love
tap here to make matters even worse for anyone that
bought this thing recently. It just broke out of a
(25:01):
really nice base just a few days ago, six seventy eight,
nine days ago, and it was looking really good coming
into earnings. By the way, another reason why I don't
really hold stocks unless if I have a big enough
cushion going into arneys ten percent or more at least,
if not twenty percent, but ten percent or more is chip.
(25:22):
Typically my threshold. Will I hold a stock if I'm
less than a ten percent cushion, Sure, but it's rare
for me. I like to have a cushion in the
event it does this right, Because if I was up
ten percent coming into earnings and it goes down eleven,
all right, I'm okay.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
I lost a little bit.
Speaker 2 (25:37):
One percent, no big deal, two percent, no big depending
on the gap. But when you see, on the other hand,
something like eBay. You know, Microsoft gapped up today, Meta
gapped up today after reporting earnings Wednesday after the close,
but eBay, another one, gaps up eighteen percent today, hits
an all time high on monster volume. Average volume for
(26:03):
eBay's five point three million shares today was almost twenty million,
and the stock's up eighteen percent all time. Hyhes, folks.
That is as the breakaway gap. It's exactly what I'm
looking for when I look at earnings. That's the reaction
to the news. That's number one. Is it big gap up,
big dap, gap down?
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Or what happens?
Speaker 2 (26:24):
Or is it a snows fast nothing happens? Step two
or the next thing. I look at, what were the
numbers sales and earnings this year compared to the same
period last year. So for eBay, for example, they earned
a dollar thirty seven this year that quarter that ended
June thirtieth. The same period quarter ending June thirtieth, twenty
(26:45):
twenty four, they earned a dollar eighteen, So one thirty
seven this year one eighteen last year, growth of sixteen percent.
Earnings and sales grew by six percent. Stock is up
eighteen percent of the news, right, So the first thing
I want to look at.
Speaker 3 (27:00):
Is the reactions.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
Second things, what are the actual numbers? Did they grow
year over year? Remember you want to compare apples to apples.
I'll get the apple in a second year because the
numbers are just coming out now or no, not even
not yet. Sorry, the stock's up a little bit about
pointy eighty percent, but the results are coming.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
Down in a few minutes.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
When you look at the numbers year over year, you're
comparing the second quarter of twenty twenty five to the
second quarter of twenty twenty four. Why because the fourth
quarter tends to be a strong quarter for retail, but
the first quarter is a week quarter, So it's not
accurate to compare Q one to Q four for retail stocks, right,
(27:42):
same is true for other stocks. And under other industries.
I want to look at this quarter, same period this
year versus the same period last year and look for
year over year growth. That makes sense, So Q one
of twenty five compared to Q one and twenty four,
Q two twenty five, Q two twenty four, so on
and so forth, sales earnings.
Speaker 3 (28:02):
Did we get growth? Not growth?
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Third thing I look for guidance. Actually, I'll give you
four things. I said three to here's four. What is
the company bullish on its own future? Management?
Speaker 3 (28:12):
Are they bullish?
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Are they not?
Speaker 3 (28:14):
Or they perish? You know that matters why.
Speaker 2 (28:18):
Because if the company's barish on its own future, why
would investors be bullish on it? You know?
Speaker 3 (28:26):
That's big.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Next thing I look at is do they beat estimates?
Speaker 3 (28:31):
Right, I'm gonna give you actually five they beat estimates
or do they miss estimates?
Speaker 2 (28:39):
So reaction to numbers. First thing I look at, it's numbers,
year over year growth or no growth?
Speaker 3 (28:47):
Estimates?
Speaker 2 (28:48):
Guidance? Do they beat estimates? They have guidance? Those are
four things so far up there's Apple's numbers. And the
fifth thing I look for it it's just something that
I like to see me it's what did the stock
do with respect to other stocks, it's peers and the
market's reaction. All right, those are five big things I
(29:11):
look for. In other words, are all retail stocks doing well?
Are all semiconductor stocks doing well? Are they all doing bad?
So on?
Speaker 3 (29:19):
And so forth.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
AI stocks a lot of them gapping up, gapping down.
Speaker 4 (29:22):
You know.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
That's I try to connect the dots that way. But
the four big things, it's the reaction to the news.
You can write it down if you want. The numbers
year over year, did it beat earnings estimates? Did it
raise guidance and then guidance raise guidance, lower guidance. You know,
they futre bullship bearers about their future.
Speaker 3 (29:40):
And so on and so forth.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
All right, Apple, Apple's earnings are out. Apple is up
one point three percent as of right now, up almost
two percent. Now, it's very fluid because the numbers just
came out and they said greater China revenue fifteen point
three seven billion versus fifteen point one to nine billion
was the estimate. All right, that's a big piece of it.
Let's see, it's up oneo point six percent now, so
(30:03):
it's on off a little bit. We'll see one point
eight percent.
Speaker 3 (30:06):
So it's steady.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
It's up about two percent. Yes, it's steady at two percent.
I'll dive in deeper. The numbers just broke q Apple three, Okay.
iPhone revenue was forty four point five to eight billion
estimates was forty billion. All right, looks like the numbers
that I've beaten. The stocks up a little bit. That
should bode well for the market. It's up about two
(30:27):
and a half percent now, so we'll see again putting
the pieces of the puzzle together. Super important. Other stocks
that reported after the close today. Reddit's up big. You've
got mstr which is micro Strategy. They're big on bitcoin.
They're up about a percent one point three three percent.
(30:47):
See other stocks that reported. We spoke about cloud Flare,
which was net rokuro Ku is a ticker there that's
up about four point seventy five percent, up almost about
five percent after hours after reporting earnings. That's Roku ro Ku.
And again when you look at the numbers, the reaction guidance, well,
(31:10):
lots of other ones too. First Solar came out with
numbers FSLR. Let's see they're up about four percent or
four point two percent there, you know, look for themes.
Arm came out. ARM it's a big chip manufacturer for
AI stocks and semiconductors, and it gopped down thirteen percent today. Okay,
(31:30):
what does that mean for other AI stocks? They haven't report,
lots of them haven't reported yet, but we'll see, you
know after the close. Today we had let's see KLAC
ten Core, another semiconductor stock, down about two percent. So
you had ARM report earnings yesterday, KLA se today, Boltimore
down again. That's what I mean by connecting the dots.
All right, up next, We've got a lot more to cover.
(31:52):
I'm Adam Sarhand.
Speaker 7 (31:53):
This is the one and only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
You're listening to.
Speaker 2 (32:16):
What are you waiting for?
Speaker 4 (32:18):
One?
Speaker 1 (32:20):
Ready?
Speaker 4 (32:25):
We can't reculbot.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam, Sorry,
Han in for Gary k who's out today. All right,
So a lot going on. End of the month, right,
I was like to the end of the month review,
look at what's happening, what's working, what's not working, so
on and so forth. And we went through a lot
of sectors, went through some stocks and after hours news
(32:59):
excuse me, after hours earnings came out. It's lots of
these stocks we'll see how they trade tomorrow. The two
big ones. Apple up about two percent as of right now,
that will probably change by the open tomorrow, and then
Amazon's down about three percent. Lots of times, folks these
after hours numbers. It's a thinner market, so they can
(33:20):
vary greatly. But the markets extended. We saw a big
negative reversal today. The Nasdak at the high was up
much more closed lower half of the range on heavier volumes.
It was a distribution day some of these stocks. Again,
looking at the reaction to earnings, some of these leading
(33:41):
stocks that have been leading so far got hit this
earning season. Not all of them, but some of them.
Netflix example, for an example, or as an example, excuse me.
Back in April bottom at eight twenty one, jumped to
thirteen forty one by the end of June. Now then
it reported earnings and it's just been drifting lower since.
Closed today at eleven fifty nine. The high was thirteen
(34:02):
forty one. Spotify spot another big leader. This guy gapped
down on earnings. He was at four to seventy five
back in April. Rallied up to seven eighty five at
the end of June and then it's just been slowly
pulling back as well. Broke the fifty day moving average
and then gap down after reporting earnings a few days ago,
(34:24):
and now he's at six twenty six and the high
was sevent eighty five. He was a leader, but broke
the fifty race race gap down big today. Was somewhat
of a leader, had a good breakout from a few
days ago, and then just got walloped. So again, take
(34:46):
your time, find those leaders and you can go through them.
One of the things that I like to do a lot,
I just go on price, you know, look at movers
that are up and or to buy price change like
percent change, and find out where the big money's flowing.
Like today n Egg new egg commerce stock that went
(35:08):
from three dollars to sixty three since April. Somebody's in
there buying it. It's not me, they lose money. It's
an IT company. They provide online retail services enabling customers
to buy it computer components, consumer electronics. I think it's
like the this used to be one of the other
I forget what they used to be called, but they
(35:28):
sell computer parts like RAM and you know, laptop stuff
like that. Anyway, stock has a huge move it's could
be one of those short sale ones and meme stocks
that were popular just recently. I'm not sure about that,
but all I know just looking for big movers, right,
and I'm not buying this stock up here at sixty three,
when just a week and a half ago it was
(35:48):
in the thirties. I thinks, yesterday gaps down.
Speaker 3 (35:54):
Let's see here.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Twenty percent yesterday and then rallies forty one percent today.
Something's going on there that's not normal.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
I just stay away. But I want to find leaders.
Speaker 2 (36:05):
I want to just see where the money's flowing in
ninety nine percent of time. Warren Buffett talks about this
the circle of competence. Ninet nine percent of time, I
say no, no, your area of competence, and if it's
not in your air of confidence or your air of expertise, no,
just master the art of saying no. It's liberating, it's
a free it's a superpower. I look at hundreds of stocks,
if not thousands of stocks every week. No no, no, no. Oh,
(36:28):
that's a good one.
Speaker 3 (36:29):
But it's so rare.
Speaker 2 (36:32):
When I buy a house, I don't buy houses often,
but when I over the decades, I've bought several houses
and sold them, bought them. And you know, I own
a few houses, and when I buy a house, I
might take a year before I actually pull the trigger.
I'll look at fifty houses, forty houses. No, no, no, no, no,
find a diamond the rough. Oh okay, then yes, but
(36:56):
vast majority of houses. I'm looking for the entrant. No,
and that's okay. I'm waiting for the right criteria. Next
one that was up big today Applied Digital APLD up
thirty one percent, big gap up today, earning on earnings
frge forge Global. This guy is a thinner trader, but
up thirty percent today. Broke out of a base. American
(37:19):
Superconductor AMSC. This guy was up twenty nine percent today,
big huge gap up. Wasn't a breakout, It broke out
a while ago above thirty seven dollars thirty eight dollars.
Now it's all they up.
Speaker 3 (37:31):
To fifty six. But huge move up. PI.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Another stock was up big today, twenty six percent. RSI
huge move today, up twenty five percent on monstrous volume.
Average volume is one point two million shares. This guy
was up about on volume about eleven million shares. Average
volumes one point two So clearly that shows you the
big institutions are in their buying, and again, I'm not
going to buy that RSI. It's too extended for me.
(37:57):
But that's okay. At least I know where than mine.
He's flowing cgnx uh twenty percent today. I'm not buying it.
That's okay.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
MOD. It takes me two minutes to scroll through these things.
Speaker 2 (38:11):
I just look at the you know, stocks that move
more than two percent for the day up like you know,
the highest movers all the way down to about one
or two percent, depending on the day. If it's a
quiet day different. But if it's a big swing day
like today, I want to find the market's down. I
want to find the stocks that were up and the
stocks that are up on volume. MOD another one up
(38:32):
eighty percent. Again not buy, say not, there's no buy recommendation,
just showing myself where the volume and price?
Speaker 3 (38:39):
Where's the price, what's where's the money moving?
Speaker 2 (38:42):
MOD four point five million shares today, average volume, million
shares earning the EPs writing from Investors Business, he's ninety nine,
compositor writing it's ninety four.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
It's great.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
eBay, huge gap up, spoke about that average volume five
point three million chairs gaps up on almost twenty million
shares today to a new all time I on earnings
CHRW up eighteen percent, huge move and breaks out on volume.
Carvana reports earnings gaps up. Seevna as a ticker there
(39:18):
up seventeen percent ten almost eleven million shares, average volumes
three million shares. Shows you like Gary says, it's not
Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the buying. Earnings are
up eight hundred and fourteen percent year over year, sales
are up forty two percent. I'm not I didn't buy
this today, but at least I want to know. I
want to see it, and it's easy.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
It's free.
Speaker 2 (39:38):
You can just sort by stocks that are up, you know,
the biggest percent movers for the day. Let's see what else.
IDV another one that jumped out at me, upset sixteen
percent today, big gap up on earnings. Earnings were only
up six percent.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
STOT gap up.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
Al n Y biotech company are were down forty three
percent and the stock was up fifteen percent. Does RNA
stock for whatever they do? But we're running out of time.
End of the month markets extended. I'm expecting a little
bit of a pullback here. I want to thank you,
Thank everybody for listening. I believe Garby back tomorrow. It's
(40:17):
always This is a pleasure, and I'll speak to everybody
again soon.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Kult's mom on
Biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's
garyka dot com.
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