Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
And welcome everyone to another Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan
in for Gary K. Who's out today. Today is Thursday,
October second, twenty twenty five. We have a great show
for you tonight. Number one. I wish everybody that's celebrating
the holiday a very happy holiday and New Year. Everybody else,
welcome to the show. We've got a lot to cover,
(00:30):
so I'm gonna dive right in, point by point. First
the housekeeping notes that Gary wants me to share this.
If you don't get this show in your city, you
can go to garyk dot com. You can listen live
or archive Monday through Friday six to seven pm Eastern
on garyk dot com for free on any device. I
know I tend to speak fast. I have a lot,
(00:52):
so much to say, it's a little time. I do
my best to slow down and make the points addressable
so you can digest them. But if you miss anything,
the beauty is you can rewind it fast forward, listen
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(01:15):
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Take a trial there if you haven't done so already.
Gary gives actionable ideas, daily market webcasts, and so much more.
All of that's available on conviction leaders dot com. All right,
housekeeping notes from Gary. The semiconductor move continues to be
(01:36):
quite amazing based on a lot of promises of very
big numbers going forward, especially when it comes to AI,
and they better come through with them. As of right now,
the market believes it, and this is Gary saying, and
I am amazed at how vertical some of those moves
are in some of the names. You can look at
quantum computing stocks as another area that's just pretty much
(01:57):
gone parabolic. You've gotten straight up. The crypto was back
above the fifty day moving average and has been a
place to has to be paid attention to again because
it's now emerging. So I want to put that out.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
There for you.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Gary says, it's good to see oil prices and interest
rates coming down the last few days.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
It should be obvious.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
That the market doesn't care right now about the government
shutdown because everybody knows the government shutdowns do not last
very long, and everybody knows that we're going to continue
to spend our way into oblivion by all the clowns
in Washington, DC on both sides of the aisle. So
that those are the notes Gary wanted me to share
(02:37):
with you right at the top of the show. Want
to make sure I do my part as a messenger
and get those notes conveyed to you now, the market,
let's go through a lot of action here, a lot
to cover, so we'll break it down for you step
by step. First off, these government shutdowns, like Gary said,
most of them are meaningless. I had a report yesterday
I published where I showed all the previous go and shutdowns,
(03:00):
and I can go through a few of them with
you now if you want. And how long they lasted.
I think the longest one we've had since nineteen eighty. Well,
first off, let me finish the thought there. The longest
one we had since nineteen eighty I believe was a
few weeks long, not a lot. In other words, they
close it's usually politics, it's both sides of the Aisle
(03:22):
putting their foot down on certain issues. This one happens
to be about healthcare, you know, and other spending. It's
not just healthcare, it's others spending as well. But really
it's a matter of almost a game of chicken or bluff,
like how long can I hold my breath for a
type of a thing. Eventually one side caves and the
other side goes, and that's that. So since nineteen eighty,
(03:43):
we've had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight
nine government nine ish government shutdowns maybe ten depending on
twenty eighteen. There was one on I guess two and
twenty eighteen, what at the beginning of the year, one
at the end of the So ten shutdowns since nineteen
eighty and the length of the shutdowns just about all
(04:05):
of them, especially the earlier ones in the eighties, we're
a few days, you know, definitely under ten days was
the average. Three of them out of those ten lasted
more than ten days, the one in nineteen ninety five,
In twenty thirteen, and then the end of twenty eighteen.
Twenty eighteen, the government shut down twice, once in January
and then again in December. So and that was you had.
(04:27):
That was under Trump as well in twenty eighteen, So
you've had times before, and the one in eighteen in
December that lasted over thirty days the government was shut
down for so again government opens up after This is
not Trump's first rodeo.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
We's been through this before.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
The government shut down twice in eighteen and overopened. It
happens again. You know, prior shutdowns, the market used to
sell off, but now everyone's knows this drill more or less. Okay,
it's more of a game of short term, hold your
breath underwater and then eventually somebody just caves and that's that.
So what happens when we come out of the shutdown
(05:02):
once the market the government opens up, the market knows
the government will be leaner. If Trump's going to follow
through and actually cut some of the lower performing people
of the staff that's not really providing a lot of value,
then we come out stronger, but spending again, like Gary said,
on both sides of the aisle is i mean exceptionally high.
(05:24):
So hopefully that point gets addressed. Debt comes down, deficits
come down. Hopefully there's some major progress made on those fronts.
Because yes, the tariffs definitely help generate income. But you know,
the spending is just.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
It's a lot.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
I mean, you can look at charts if you want
about deficits and spending. It's just through the roof and
it's not sustainable. So we'll see how this unfolds. But
the market knows. Typically these government shutdowns are just political theater.
It passes with it very very little to know impact
on either Main Street or Wall Street. Now how long
(06:04):
this one goes for, you know.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Nobody knows. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Maybe the deal gets done by the end of the
show today. Again, it could deal can get done at
any point in time. But for the most part, you know,
we come out of this thing. Typically we come out
stronger just about every shutdown.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
You know, we had one.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
In May of nineteen eighty that lasted a few days.
You had won in November of eighty one, and then
you had one in October of eighty four. You had
won on October eighty six, another one October of nineteen
ninety eleven November of ninety five, and then December of
ninety five.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
That was that's interesting.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
So eleven fourteen ninety five, and then twelve sixteen ninety five,
and then maybe that was just a one month extension
October of twenty thirteen, January twentieth of eighteen, and then
twelve twenty two of eighteen that was the last time
the government shutdown, and then of course now October of
twenty five and the durations yet to be known. But
will usually come out of these things stronger again, not always,
(07:03):
but that's typically in the market for now, just doesn't matter,
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 4 (07:09):
I mean.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Trump's known notoriously for saying you're fired from the Apprentice
way back when if you remember watching that show twenty
years ago, so whatever, it was out, So there's a
possibility here. You know, in the news everyone's saying, oh,
Trump says he wants to fire a bunch of people.
All right, we'll see. You know, in business, it's normal
and healthy for businesses to do that from time and
time again. You know, Jack Wells from ge had a
great line decades ago where you would take all your
(07:32):
employees and the lowest ten percent that just aren't providing value,
aren't performing as strong, you just cut them. Why, because
it hits best for the organization. It's nothing personal, it's
just for the greater good.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Type of a thing.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
But if they're performing, you know, Trump's not going to
get fired from this government shutdown, and neither will high level,
high top you know, high ROI kind of players in
the government. So the ones that do get fired or
four looad or whatever the cases, they tend to be
the ones based on someone's discretion, whether they are providing
(08:06):
a lot of value or not. The ones that provide
a lot of value you tend to stay in. Just
about again, I'm making general statements and just about any organization.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
So that's the news.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
With the shutdown, the market, as Gary said, the semiconductor stocks,
you can look at the SMH remain a very very
strong area in the market. When you look for themes, right,
you want to find areas that are working, that are leading.
By definition, you have leading areas in the market and
you have lagging areas in the market. Just like in sports.
(08:36):
You know, you like baseball, we're going into the playoffs
and then the World Series. You got NBA season starting
soon and football seasons kicked off. Any sports. You want
to know what this teams are? Hey, what are the
Nankees doing? The Red Sox, the Dodgers, the Mets, whatever
it is. Your team is you want to know what
the standing is. The same thing with stocks. There's sectors
(08:58):
and then there's stocks in those sectors. And a great
way of, you know, getting ahead is knowing the leaders
and knowing the laggards and avoiding the laggards, which Gary
does a great job helping people avoid the laggards and
focusing on who like Gary does a great job helping
you find leadership right day in, day out, day in
(09:18):
day out. Gary's out here every day talking about leadership,
talking about what's working, what's not working, areas to avoid right,
and areas to focus on. Now, just because semiconductors are leading,
I get this question a lot.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Should I blindly?
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Should I just buy them?
Speaker 3 (09:35):
Adam, No, it's.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
A matter of time right timing the market is they say.
Some people say they can do it, some people say
you can't do it. I'm out here at debate. All
I'm just saying is that there's probabilities, high probability outcomes.
Usually it's not after a big move up to go
buy it. Usually markets pulled back, right, sectors pulled back,
(10:00):
stocks pulled back. Whatever it is. Gold is very strong.
One of the strongest performing asset classes this year. GLD there,
it's extended. It's way extended above it's fifty day moving average.
It's almost ten percent above it's fifty day moving average.
The GLD the semiconductors, same thing. The semiconductors are twelve
about twelve to thirteen percent above their fifty day moving average.
(10:24):
That's extended. Doesn't mean it can't go higher, of course
it can, but from a probability standpoint, it's a higher
probability it's going to pull back at this juncture then
continue to rally right, So knowing when to get in,
having a general feel of it again, it's this art,
more than an exact science, really paves away for a
(10:44):
big success over the future. Now up next, we've got
a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is
the one and only Investor's Edge.
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Speaker 6 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 7 (12:09):
You're listening to okay promise it could be firm Investor's Edge.
Speaker 6 (12:15):
The last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called bomb. It doesn't get better.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Than this, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In
case you're just joining us or missed any part of
the show, you can go to Gary k dot com, rewind,
(12:41):
fast forward listen at your convenience twenty four to seven
anytime you want so. We spoke about the market being up,
gave you some notes from Gary we spoke about the
fact that the Semiconductor Index the SMH, is a leading
area in the market. It's also extended, gold a leading
area in the market, so extended, and spoke about high
probability trades. So think of the fifty day moving average
(13:04):
as a magnet. Doesn't have to pull back into the fifty.
You could pull back into the twenty one day or
even the ten day moving average. Lots of moving averages.
But the idea is to understand the patterns right. And
just the expression says, history of rhymes. It doesn't repeat,
you know, it repeats rhymes however you want to. We've
seen this over and over and over again, these big
(13:27):
leading areas semiconductors, AI stocks, gold stocks, back in the
nineteen late nineteen nineties into the two thousands, the dot COM's,
any of these themes where you get these leaders, these
areas that just lead the market. They rally, take the
stairs up, as the expression on Wall Street. They rally,
they go sideways, build a new base, break out, rally,
(13:49):
build a new base, break out, so on and so forth.
And they when they break out, they pull back after
every breakout, and they build a new base, and they
pull back into the twenty one day, they back into
the fifty. They bounce off of those areas and boom
off to the races. Sometimes they undercut those areas and
then take off again. It's just how and they land.
These trends last for years, right, and the video has
(14:12):
been a leading stock since we came out of that
twenty twenty two bear market, and now we're heading it
to twenty six almost. This is the fourth quarter of
twenty five, so it's been a long time, and you've
had big dips along the way, even earlier this year
in the video had a huge pullback with the tariff
scare right when the market pulled back in March and April,
(14:33):
but then it found support, bounced and ripped, and now
it's at a new all time high. So again, understanding
chasing stocks, what does that mean? You're buying extended typically
is not a good strategy. Doesn't mean just because you
buy a breakout or just because you buy a fifty
day moving average bounce, you know it has to go up. No,
(14:55):
those can breakouts fail, you know, those fifty day moving
average bounces or twenty one they failed to They happen,
But it's about probability folks. If I that's the theme
for today, it's high probability trades. How do we find
these high probability outcomes? If I if it's this quiet
residential street, I look both ways before I cross it,
(15:15):
and I want to get to the other side of
the street, and there's no cars, and I cross, and
I'm healthy, I can cross the street. It's probably a
good decision. Low probability that I'm not gonna get hit
by a bus crossing that street. Okay, low probability that
I'm gonna hit ahurther, I'll take that trade across the bus.
Jumping on an airplane, same idea. Right, anything can happen.
(15:38):
I could trip and fall, I can God forbid how
some kind of situation occur where a bus hits me.
But it's extremely low probability. Airplane, most likely it's going
to take off and land, it's not going to crash. Okay, great,
getting into cars, so on and so forth. Right, that's
how life works. Same thing with stocks. When you understand
(16:00):
the probabilities and stack the odds of success in your
favor and really minimize risk, you're way ahead of the pack.
Because most people don't even look at risk. They come
into the market. They pull out their calculator and they say, Okay,
if I buy ten thousand shares or one hundred thousand
chairs or a thousand chairs of x y Z, and
it goes up, I'm going to buy a new Ferrari
(16:21):
or a Porsche, or pay off my mortgage or or
or the calculator and they just get lost and with
my friend Andy says, they get lost in the sauce. Oh,
this doc just has to get to one hundred and
then XYZ whatever that number is right, And that's always
this moving scale. It's never never ends right. So okay, great,
if you sell it at one hundred, it goes to
(16:42):
one fifty. Oh my god, I could have money, could
should have it, and then it goes down to sell.
In kindergarten they tell my kids, you get what you get.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
You don't get upset.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Understanding that this is a psychological process, this game, this business,
this investing. It's the biggest competitor is your former self.
Speaker 3 (17:02):
Who's smarter me.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Today or me ten years ago? Hopefully me today, you today,
you ten years ago? Right, okay, great. A lot of
this business it's buying, right, it's selling when to buy
and when to sell position sizing. If you size your
position too big, you can get in trouble because you
won't be able to handle a normal pullback. If you
size it too small, it's not going to really make
a dent. Even if the stock goes up so much
(17:25):
it'll barely impact your portfolio. But a lot of this
is really understanding the psychology of the invest and trading
and investing, because really controlling that inner conversation is paramount.
Because nobody I know consistently buys every low and sells
(17:45):
every high perfectly.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
It just doesn't happen.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
The good news is you don't have to do that
to be very successful in the business. It's really super important.
But understanding that mindset, Understanding that if you have a
process that's repeatable, not over one trade or two trades,
but over a thousand trades, over ten thousand trades over
the next ten years. You know what's worked in history
If you look back in history, what's worked well. Buying
(18:10):
leaders that's worked right, Buying breakouts that's worked, Having stops
and protective stops, keeping your risks small. Being when you're wrong,
that's okay, be wrong, small when you're right, let those
winners run be right bigger than These are things that
have just time and time again over the decades.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Have worked.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
But a lot of it has to do with making rational,
not emotional decisions with your money. I wrote a book.
It's called Psychological Analysis. Is my contribution to Wall Street.
For those of you that don't know, you can get
on Amazon and if you like it, please leave a
nice review. And the whole idea one sentence, is to
teach people how to make rational, not emotional decisions with
their money. That's the story, that's my passion. Because I
(18:57):
made every emotional decision you probably can't make mistake and
then some and I still do. I have to control
it my inner narrative, right, it's easy to beat myself up.
Oh I could have if I only did this, X
Y Z, if I only did that, How could you
add them?
Speaker 3 (19:14):
You know.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
It's a negative ROI that negative talk in your head.
Flip it, control it. Understand we're humans. It's virtually impossible.
I don't know anyone at least that buys every low
to the penny and sells every high to the penny consistently.
Just doesn't happen. And that's okay. So understanding that that's
(19:41):
not going to happen for me. Took a lot of
pressure off. Oh I just bought a stock and it
went up a lot.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Sold it.
Speaker 7 (19:49):
Great.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Get what I get. Don't get upset After I sold it,
I kept on going. It's so frustrating, of course it's frustrating.
I mean, raise your hand if that ever happened. I'm
sure lots of hands are going.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
Up right now.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
But what do we have to do? Pause, reflect and understand.
It's part of the process baseball, right, we're just talking
about baseball. The best baseball players in the world have
what a three out of ten batting average point three
to three or somewhere along those lines, meaning they connect
three out of ten times, they strike out seven out
of ten times, and they're the best in the world.
(20:24):
More strikeouts than hits. But the same thing as trading,
same thing with baseball. It's asymmetric, the risk versus reward.
When they're wrong, they strike out, they lose one, one out.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
It's the worst that can happen when you strike out. Okay, great,
when you hit it, you get on base, you can
score one, you can score two, you can score three,
or you can hit a grand slam and score four.
So when you're right, you're right four or right three
you're right two, when you're wrong one, that's a winning system.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Same trade.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
All right, up next, We've got a lot more to cover.
I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors
that you want to rank much for be.
Speaker 7 (21:11):
You are listening to America is talcome Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
He's gotta be beat with the crowd.
Speaker 7 (21:18):
Is just on his feet here, just.
Speaker 4 (21:20):
Said your on a boy with Gary Caldbob.
Speaker 6 (21:23):
I'm highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you talk
to him.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're
just joining us or missed any part of the show,
or you want to rewind anything I say and listen again,
you can go to Gary k dot com, rewind fast
forward listen at your convenience twenty four to seven on
any device you want, all for free.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
All right, So a few thoughts here.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
We spoke about the government shut down, spoke about the market,
spoke about leading areas lagging areas, spoke about probabilities, going
after high probability trades, spoke about risk versus reward, and
I mentioned breakouts and setups, and health stocks move right,
they rally, they take the stairs up and the elevator
down to the old Wall Street adage. What does that mean?
Stares up? Well, all right, you rally, you go sideways,
(22:20):
build a base, and bases come in all different shapes
and sizes, but you basically move sideways, which is the
stair part of it, and then you rally again. It's
the next leg up, and then you base again, and
then you rally again, so on and so forth. In
order to rally, to have that next leg up, you
have to break out of a base. It's just that simple.
And every great leading stock, monster stock, true market leader,
(22:44):
any of these words you want to use to describe
these huge moves, some of these stocks that have just
really just mind boggling moves up over the centuries. Not
just I mean, go look at the tulips way back when,
not just stocks, but other markets. I mean, this is universal.
Any free publicly traded market does this that I know of,
(23:04):
at least stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities. This applies that anything that's
freely publicly traded where there's price and volume, amount in
exchange and multiple people, and the price is determined by
the market. This happens because it's psychology. Fear and greed
drive the markets. It's very simple. Fear and greed drive markets.
(23:28):
The way stocks work, there's something called anchoring. You know.
I have these things called cognitive biases in my book
where I go through some of the cognitive by you
can google it cognitive biases, and I go through some
of them that apply to trading and investing. Well, I
have If you have a mind, you have biases. I
have a mind. I have biases. Okay, Well, which ones
are impacting my decisions unconsciously I'm not even aware of
(23:50):
I want to know what they are. So I spent
years studying them and I put a bunch of them
in the book. One of them is anchoring. Well, what's
an anchor? Is the price that occurs in the stock
that cause is people to anchor value to it. Let's say,
for example, a thought is trading between one hundred and
ninety for six months. Every time it gets to between
(24:11):
ninety and one hundred, every time it gets up towards
one hundred, it pulls back to ninety, and then it
bounces goes back up to one hundred. Bah bah blah
blah bah ninety eight go you know, good, doesn't that
touch one hundred perfectly? Again, it's more of a science
than an arc goes near one hundred, goes ninety eight,
ninety nine, goes down to ninety one, ninety two, and
then goes back up towards ninety six, ninety seven, goes
down to ninety four, ninety five, goes back up to
(24:32):
ninety nine, gets close to one hundred, hits one hundred,
then goes back down again. You know, so on and
so forth for six months or twelve months or three months,
it doesn't matter. Basis come in all different shapes and sizes.
It could be one hundred to eighty, right, I'm just
giving a hypothetical ninety to one hundred here, Okay, great,
that's a range. Resistance is one hundred, and that example,
support is ninety. Resistance is a ceiling. Think of that,
(24:56):
and supports a floor. Okay, well, what does that mean?
Time it gets to one hundred, there's an anchor. There's
something up there that's resistant and stopping the stock from
going higher. In order for that stock to double or
triple or quadruple or go up tenfold, it has to
break out above one hundred literally, it's the only way
it's going to go up if you have a base
like that. In that example, it's got to break out. Now,
(25:19):
every great stock in history breaks out of multiple bit
and then bases again, rallies up, bases breaks out, rallies
up at basis. Okay, great, well, Durning. You know in
present market included during the day stocks breakout. Now, most
breakouts don't work. The ones that do. Just like baseball.
Most times you swing the bat, you're not going to
hit a grand slam.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
When you breakout doesn't work, you can get out small loss,
no problem. When the breakout works, hey maybe that can
be the next big, huge true market leader or a
big monster stock or you know someone So we never know. Okay,
but I want to be there the moment it breaks out.
That's telling me that something has changed in the market. Now,
how do we find these breakouts? I used to scan
(26:03):
for hours and hours and hours, but I built the
site and can check it out if you want. It's
called Breakouts and Setups dot com. Breakouts and Setups dot com.
He said, all right, I'm scanning thousands of stocks. I
want to find stocks that are breaking out. Have an
algorithm on a team of guys that are way smarter
than me.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Build it.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Okay, great, it's now available today. There were thirty five
breakouts on Breakouts setups dot Com, and there was one
hundred and twenty two setups.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
Let's go through a few of them.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
So this is sorted by price percent change. These are
the biggest movers. Again, these are not buy recommendations. I
just want to see where the money's flowing. When I
see a stock basing for a long time and then
have a huge move up, something changed, especially when it
does on volume. So the first one that shows up
here is Tsha Tysha Gene Therapy. It's a biotech company
(26:58):
loses money, so I'm not touching it with a ten
foot poll, but I want to see it. And it's
a low price. One closed today at five around five bucks. Okay,
it was up fifty three percent. That's a crazy move up. Again,
I'm not touching it. But average volume is three point
five million. This guy had one hundred and twenty one
million shares traded today. Like Gary says, it's not Aunt Mary,
(27:18):
Uncle Bob doing the buying. Those are the big institutions
piling in and this thing has been basing, going sideways
for months to low price stock, loses money.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
I'll pass. Go to the next one.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Okay, the next one can cn is a ticker Chinese
company bitcoin mining. I get it. Broke out today from
a bottoming pattern. It's a low price stock.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
I'll pass, but.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
I want to see it. LTRX, the next one broke
out from a nice little base here based on top
of the base. All right, noted, Go on to the
next one. ASTs Ast Space Mobile, all right, telecom company.
They're doing satellites. They're losing money now. Big breakout today
on volume, average volumes, ten million shares broke out on
(28:01):
almost thirty million shares above sixty bucks. This guy's going
sideways between sixty ninety five and forty to maybe thirty
six in that range. That was the base the last
several months, and today breaks out above sixty on monster
volume again. Big investors buying Crisper CRSP. The next stock
that showed up, broke out a few days ago, broke
(28:23):
out again today, broke out of a mid level base
a few days ago. Broke out to a new high today,
very strong, fifty two week high. Very strong action there.
Next big breakout APLD applied digital. It's a little bit extended.
I'll pass ZGN. This is an Italian luxury men'swear company. Okay, great,
(28:43):
nice little breakout there, multi month breakout, you can go
back further. Good breakout there. ZGN didn't have the volume
I like, But okay, I want to see what's breaking
out right, and then you just go through them and
go through them and through most are not.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Going to work.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
I'm not going to buy all these breakouts. Here's another one,
Alt Israeli company provides network optimization products. Okay, computer networking
stock broke out today on about average volume.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
All right, no problem.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Next PLSE another biotech com or medical systems company. A
nice mid level, low level breakout there. And then what
else can we show you that's notable? Po n Y
another Chinese stock broke out to a new high and
IPO from last late last year, and then so on
and so forth, and most of these again, I'm not
(29:31):
buying them. I didn't do any buying today. But I
want to see the breakouts. I want to see which
stocks are moving, where's the money right flowing on any
given day. That to me is very helpful. Why because
when you do find a good one, like a week
and a half ago Tesla or two weeks a few
weeks ago Tesla showed up. When was it? It was
(29:52):
on nine to twelve, so a few weeks ago, about
two weeks ago, three weeks ago Tesla showed up on
nine eleven, then nine to twelve as a setup before that,
and then a breakout the second it broke out about
that three sixty seven level. It showed up and I
went from three sixty seven to four thirty five were
it closed today hit a high of four to seventy,
(30:14):
so three seventy to four seventy one hundred bucks in
two or three weeks. That's a really good breakout, right,
And then.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
It gives me clues to see where the mone are
there any.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Themes that are breaking out? Here's DuPont dd is a
taker makes money chemicals company. Nice mid level breakout there,
nothing to go crazy about it, but good breakout, right.
And then are there other chemical stocks breaking out today?
When the AI stocks are breaking out? A few over
the last several months, great we saw lots of AI
(30:43):
stocks breakout. The steel stock broke out today. Steel Dynamics
sTLD showed up on breakout from setups dot com. Guess
what I you know, Okay, I'm looking at other steel stocks.
I'm not necessarily going to buy it, but it gives
me ideas for themes. And then I'm going to look
around and say, oh, okay, money's flowing like solar stocks.
Money was they were showing up over the last few weeks. Okay,
(31:04):
great a month, a few months ago, it was the
AI stocks, okay.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
Noted right?
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Raw Stores ros T is a ticker broke out above
one fifty three fifty four today.
Speaker 3 (31:18):
All right, one fifty six. Eighteens were closed. It had
a high one to fifty five. It's done fifty. It's
not an all time.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
High breakout, but it's a pretty good mid level breakout.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
So it's noted right, CRG car grews.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Okay, good earnings growth there, little cup and handle. It's
not a thunderous breakout. In fact, it's a low volume
breakout CRG.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
But oh okay, here you go.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
What's moving Ralph laurn RL another breakout today, So again
you're getting themes. Where's the money flowing up?
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Next?
Speaker 2 (31:52):
We've got a lot more to cover. I'm adam sorry,
And this is the one and only Investor's.
Speaker 7 (31:56):
Edge you're listening to, Well, what are you waiting for?
Speaker 5 (32:18):
One too?
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Ready?
Speaker 4 (32:25):
We can't recall pop.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're
just joining us from any part of the show, you
can go to Gary k dot com, rewind, fast forward
listen at your convenience anytime you want. Twenty four to seven. So,
all right, we spoke about a lot so far, and
go back and listen. But we only have a few
minutes left, so I want to get it to the
other side of this. It's the breakouts is again, find
(32:55):
the themes fine stocks that are breaking out. Look for
abnormal volume on the breakouts. The heavier the volume, the better.
Look for big price movements. That tells you it's the
big institutions moving it. It's not just like Gary says
Aunt Mary nuncle Bob, with the big institutions, And that's
really where the big setups are and the biggest the
big movement comes when the big institutions pile into a
(33:16):
stock and then Aunt Mary knuckle Bob tend to follow.
But you know, I want to find big, heavy volume movers,
those tend to be really good, that are breaking out
on volume, and then find themes right if we see
a lot of oil stocks moving up, oh maybe I
should watch oil, or a lot of gold stocks a
few months ago were breaking out a all right, and
then gold has a huge move up the GDX. If
you look at the GDX, it broke out in August.
(33:39):
GLD broke out in September. Doesn't always happen, but it's
really encouraging when you see the commodity stocks lead the commodity. Well,
how'd I know what was happening was g DX and
g A lot of gold stocks were breaking out while
GLD was basing, and then all of a sudd, GLD
(34:00):
breaks out in September and just rips higher. All right,
not a mistake. So those are the breakouts. Now the setups.
Here's some setups from breakouts and setups. Dot Com Microsoft
had a huge move up from April three forty four
up to five fifty five in August, and then it
has to consolidate. Take the stairs up, right, big move
(34:22):
up builds a base consolidate, so now it's basing along
the fifty. That's a setup. It hasn't broken out yet,
but it's setting up to break out right. Broadcom Avgo,
another setup, had a huge gap up a few weeks
ago when they reported earnings, and now he's been moving
moving sideways for the last.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
Few weeks to consolidate that move up.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
Walmart talked about resistance earlier as being a ceiling all right,
one oh five, one o six areas resistance for Walmart.
It's at one o one and it's been doing that
since February.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
More or less.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
You had to dip in April, March and April because
of the tariffs.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
It came right back and now you're basing.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
If this thing can break out above one oh six
on volume so highlightly, it has another chance to move higher.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
Doesn't have to again.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Most breakouts don't work, and that's okay, providing there's a
stop right pltr pound tier. Another great setup slash breakout
broke broke out today from a little cup and handled
base light volume one ninety was the high from a
few months ago, and now you're at one eighty seven.
(35:25):
Something to note, AMD right had a huge move up
seventy six to one eighty six, and then he pulled back.
He built a new base for the last few months,
and now he's coming up the right side of the base.
He's back above the fifty today as a setup right,
IBM huge cup forming there, big base two ninety six
is a high. He's at two eighty six again setting up.
(35:47):
So it's not just the breakouts. I want to find
stock setting up to breakout as well. TJX. We spoke
about Ross stores and Raef Laurent breaking out well. TJX
is setting up the breakout.
Speaker 3 (35:58):
One fifty eight.
Speaker 4 (35:59):
Was a high.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
He's now at one forty two forty nine. That to
me is valuable. Right etn eaton Power Company. Okay, great,
the group is ranked seventeen out of one ninety seven
strong group. He's forming a cup and handle right below
the handle. Okay, good set up there, Spotify huge move
from April four to seventy five to seven eighty five
(36:21):
in June, slash July okay, pulls back, builds a base,
cup and handle here seven forty eight thirty or seven
forty five, depending on which.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
High you want to use.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Either way, he's forming a nice handle. A breakout around
above seven forty five or above above seven forty eight
thirty will be real bullish.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
And he's at seven oh seven again.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
That's how these setups work, right before the stock breaks
out look at crowd strikes CRWD another setup on breakouts
and setups five oh seven twenty it was a recent high.
He's got a cup, a little handle here, breakout above
five oh seven thirty are he go dime above it
and boom he breaks out. Not only do I want
to find out the breakouts, I want to find out
the stocks setting up to breakout before they break out.
(37:04):
Just because he's setting up doesn't mean he has to
break out again. This is an art more than an
exact science.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
But what am I doing.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
I'm eliminating a lot of the laggards and I'm focusing
like a hawk on leaders. And that's the match. It's
higher probability outcomes. An object in motion intends to stay
in motion. Someone taught me way back when in the
late ninetieshen I got started in the business or started
learning about investing and in the business, was hey, you
want to buy stocks that are going up, look at
the new high list. That's it. Don't just blindly buy
(37:33):
a stock on the new high list because you could
be extended. Like we spoke about earlier with the semi conductors.
Now we're gold now. But you want to find stocks
going up, look at new highs. So again the breakouts
and setups and that's how they work. So I hope
that's helpful for you. Again, I want to give you
a value. And that's how I want to help. Is
it changed my life? Because otherwise it's overwhelming. There's thousands
(37:54):
of stocks out there and ETFs and commodities and current
it's too much. I got to filter it down to
a universe. I want to find those leaders, and then
find those leaders as they're setting up, and then see
them when they are breaking out. See Tesla the day
it broke out.
Speaker 3 (38:11):
That's value for me. Right.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
So as we wrap up, well, we're getting towards the
end of the show here again putting the pieces together.
The market short term is getting extended. Can easily pull back.
Watch support near the twenty one day moving average and
then the fifty day moving average for the major indsease
the NASDAQ one hundred, the QQQ is the leading index
this year, continues to be a leading index. Why semiconductors
(38:38):
tech stocks are leading and the NASDAK one hundred is
tech heavy index, all right, shocker it's leading. But the
S and P is also really strong.
Speaker 3 (38:49):
Of the Spy and.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
The Russell two thousand and the IWM. That kind of
woke up over the last few weeks as the Fed
hinted at Fed cuts. Now we'll see what happens. Government
shut down. Tomorrow is supposed to be the jobs don't
think it's coming out with the jobs report. It'll be delayed.
That's okay for now. We'll see how long this government
shutdown lasts. If it's a really long time or things
get really ugly, hey the marketing easily sell off. But
(39:12):
if it's just a short term, you know, a game
of chicken here or just holding breath a little. At
both sides of the hole. They want to act tough
and then one side's gonna cave.
Speaker 6 (39:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
That typically that's been the playbook for prior government shutdowns.
And the market knows that, but again want the price
because all the news is filtered into the price. From
my standpoint and based on my knowledge, right, we're all
looking at the news and what people do. Each person's
free to do whatever they want, but it shows up
(39:42):
in the price. And then when there's a new catalyst,
new earnings, new data, new jobs report, whatever that new
inflation report, whatever that catalyst is, things change and then
you see the price react. Sometimes the price moves in advance,
like the FED cuts. The market sniff out of FED
cut weeks before the actual cut.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
And then when the.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
Actual news happens, Oh, it sells off by the rumor.
Sell the news is the expression there. So take your time, everybody.
I believe that's the end of the show. I want
to thank you very much for being here. I believe
Gary back tomorrow. Gary says, how the children enjoy, enjoy
life is a blessing.
Speaker 3 (40:20):
Enjoy it. I'll speak to you against you.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary cult Moom on
biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's
garykay dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
And welcome everyone to another Investor's Edge. I'm Adam Sarhan
in for Gary K. Who's out today. Today is Thursday,
October second, twenty twenty five. We have a great show
for you tonight. Number one. I wish everybody that's celebrating
the holiday a very happy holiday and New Year. Everybody else,
welcome to the show. We've got a lot to cover,
(00:30):
so I'm gonna dive right in, point by point. First
the housekeeping notes that Gary wants me to share this.
If you don't get this show in your city, you
can go to garyk dot com. You can listen live
or archive Monday through Friday six to seven pm Eastern
on garyk dot com for free on any device. I
know I tend to speak fast. I have a lot,
(00:52):
so much to say, it's a little time. I do
my best to slow down and make the points addressable
so you can digest them. But if you miss anything,
the beauty is you can rewind it fast forward, listen
again and again at your convenience. Twenty four to seven,
all for free, on garyk dot com. You can also
email Gary ask him about his money management services, get
his morning notes sent directly to your inbox. You can
(01:15):
subscribe to Gary's premium service, which is conviction leaders dot com.
Take a trial there if you haven't done so already.
Gary gives actionable ideas, daily market webcasts, and so much more.
All of that's available on conviction leaders dot com. All right,
housekeeping notes from Gary. The semiconductor move continues to be
(01:36):
quite amazing based on a lot of promises of very
big numbers going forward, especially when it comes to AI,
and they better come through with them. As of right now,
the market believes it, and this is Gary saying, and
I am amazed at how vertical some of those moves
are in some of the names. You can look at
quantum computing stocks as another area that's just pretty much
(01:57):
gone parabolic. You've gotten straight up. The crypto was back
above the fifty day moving average and has been a
place to has to be paid attention to again because
it's now emerging. So I want to put that out.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
There for you.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Gary says, it's good to see oil prices and interest
rates coming down the last few days.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
It should be obvious.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
That the market doesn't care right now about the government
shutdown because everybody knows the government shutdowns do not last
very long, and everybody knows that we're going to continue
to spend our way into oblivion by all the clowns
in Washington, DC on both sides of the aisle. So
that those are the notes Gary wanted me to share
(02:37):
with you right at the top of the show. Want
to make sure I do my part as a messenger
and get those notes conveyed to you now, the market,
let's go through a lot of action here, a lot
to cover, so we'll break it down for you step
by step. First off, these government shutdowns, like Gary said,
most of them are meaningless. I had a report yesterday
I published where I showed all the previous go and shutdowns,
(03:00):
and I can go through a few of them with
you now if you want. And how long they lasted.
I think the longest one we've had since nineteen eighty. Well,
first off, let me finish the thought there. The longest
one we had since nineteen eighty I believe was a
few weeks long, not a lot. In other words, they
close it's usually politics, it's both sides of the Aisle
(03:22):
putting their foot down on certain issues. This one happens
to be about healthcare, you know, and other spending. It's
not just healthcare, it's others spending as well. But really
it's a matter of almost a game of chicken or bluff,
like how long can I hold my breath for a
type of a thing. Eventually one side caves and the
other side goes, and that's that. So since nineteen eighty,
(03:43):
we've had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight
nine government nine ish government shutdowns maybe ten depending on
twenty eighteen. There was one on I guess two and
twenty eighteen, what at the beginning of the year, one
at the end of the So ten shutdowns since nineteen
eighty and the length of the shutdowns just about all
(04:05):
of them, especially the earlier ones in the eighties, we're
a few days, you know, definitely under ten days was
the average. Three of them out of those ten lasted
more than ten days, the one in nineteen ninety five,
In twenty thirteen, and then the end of twenty eighteen.
Twenty eighteen, the government shut down twice, once in January
and then again in December. So and that was you had.
(04:27):
That was under Trump as well in twenty eighteen, So
you've had times before, and the one in eighteen in
December that lasted over thirty days the government was shut
down for so again government opens up after This is
not Trump's first rodeo.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
We's been through this before.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
The government shut down twice in eighteen and overopened. It
happens again. You know, prior shutdowns, the market used to
sell off, but now everyone's knows this drill more or less. Okay,
it's more of a game of short term, hold your
breath underwater and then eventually somebody just caves and that's that.
So what happens when we come out of the shutdown
(05:02):
once the market the government opens up, the market knows
the government will be leaner. If Trump's going to follow
through and actually cut some of the lower performing people
of the staff that's not really providing a lot of value,
then we come out stronger, but spending again, like Gary said,
on both sides of the aisle is i mean exceptionally high.
(05:24):
So hopefully that point gets addressed. Debt comes down, deficits
come down. Hopefully there's some major progress made on those fronts.
Because yes, the tariffs definitely help generate income. But you know,
the spending is just.
Speaker 3 (05:41):
It's a lot.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
I mean, you can look at charts if you want
about deficits and spending. It's just through the roof and
it's not sustainable. So we'll see how this unfolds. But
the market knows. Typically these government shutdowns are just political theater.
It passes with it very very little to know impact
on either Main Street or Wall Street. Now how long
(06:04):
this one goes for, you know.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Nobody knows. I don't know.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Maybe the deal gets done by the end of the
show today. Again, it could deal can get done at
any point in time. But for the most part, you know,
we come out of this thing. Typically we come out
stronger just about every shutdown.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
You know, we had one.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
In May of nineteen eighty that lasted a few days.
You had won in November of eighty one, and then
you had one in October of eighty four. You had
won on October eighty six, another one October of nineteen
ninety eleven November of ninety five, and then December of
ninety five.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
That was that's interesting.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
So eleven fourteen ninety five, and then twelve sixteen ninety five,
and then maybe that was just a one month extension
October of twenty thirteen, January twentieth of eighteen, and then
twelve twenty two of eighteen that was the last time
the government shutdown, and then of course now October of
twenty five and the durations yet to be known. But
will usually come out of these things stronger again, not always,
(07:03):
but that's typically in the market for now, just doesn't matter,
So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 4 (07:09):
I mean.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Trump's known notoriously for saying you're fired from the Apprentice
way back when if you remember watching that show twenty
years ago, so whatever, it was out, So there's a
possibility here. You know, in the news everyone's saying, oh,
Trump says he wants to fire a bunch of people.
All right, we'll see. You know, in business, it's normal
and healthy for businesses to do that from time and
time again. You know, Jack Wells from ge had a
great line decades ago where you would take all your
(07:32):
employees and the lowest ten percent that just aren't providing value,
aren't performing as strong, you just cut them. Why, because
it hits best for the organization. It's nothing personal, it's
just for the greater good.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
Type of a thing.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
But if they're performing, you know, Trump's not going to
get fired from this government shutdown, and neither will high level,
high top you know, high ROI kind of players in
the government. So the ones that do get fired or
four looad or whatever the cases, they tend to be
the ones based on someone's discretion, whether they are providing
(08:06):
a lot of value or not. The ones that provide
a lot of value you tend to stay in. Just
about again, I'm making general statements and just about any organization.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
So that's the news.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
With the shutdown, the market, as Gary said, the semiconductor stocks,
you can look at the SMH remain a very very
strong area in the market. When you look for themes, right,
you want to find areas that are working, that are leading.
By definition, you have leading areas in the market and
you have lagging areas in the market. Just like in sports.
(08:36):
You know, you like baseball, we're going into the playoffs
and then the World Series. You got NBA season starting
soon and football seasons kicked off. Any sports. You want
to know what this teams are? Hey, what are the
Nankees doing? The Red Sox, the Dodgers, the Mets, whatever
it is. Your team is you want to know what
the standing is. The same thing with stocks. There's sectors
(08:58):
and then there's stocks in those sectors. And a great
way of, you know, getting ahead is knowing the leaders
and knowing the laggards and avoiding the laggards, which Gary
does a great job helping people avoid the laggards and
focusing on who like Gary does a great job helping
you find leadership right day in, day out, day in
(09:18):
day out. Gary's out here every day talking about leadership,
talking about what's working, what's not working, areas to avoid right,
and areas to focus on. Now, just because semiconductors are leading,
I get this question a lot.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
Should I blindly?
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Should I just buy them?
Speaker 3 (09:35):
Adam, No, it's.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
A matter of time right timing the market is they say.
Some people say they can do it, some people say
you can't do it. I'm out here at debate. All
I'm just saying is that there's probabilities, high probability outcomes.
Usually it's not after a big move up to go
buy it. Usually markets pulled back, right, sectors pulled back,
(10:00):
stocks pulled back. Whatever it is. Gold is very strong.
One of the strongest performing asset classes this year. GLD there,
it's extended. It's way extended above it's fifty day moving average.
It's almost ten percent above it's fifty day moving average.
The GLD the semiconductors, same thing. The semiconductors are twelve
about twelve to thirteen percent above their fifty day moving average.
(10:24):
That's extended. Doesn't mean it can't go higher, of course
it can, but from a probability standpoint, it's a higher
probability it's going to pull back at this juncture then
continue to rally right, So knowing when to get in,
having a general feel of it again, it's this art,
more than an exact science, really paves away for a
(10:44):
big success over the future. Now up next, we've got
a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan. This is
the one and only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 5 (11:02):
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Speaker 6 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 7 (12:09):
You're listening to okay promise it could be firm Investor's Edge.
Speaker 6 (12:15):
The last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called bomb. It doesn't get better.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Than this, and welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In
case you're just joining us or missed any part of
the show, you can go to Gary k dot com, rewind,
(12:41):
fast forward listen at your convenience twenty four to seven
anytime you want so. We spoke about the market being up,
gave you some notes from Gary we spoke about the
fact that the Semiconductor Index the SMH, is a leading
area in the market. It's also extended, gold a leading
area in the market, so extended, and spoke about high
probability trades. So think of the fifty day moving average
(13:04):
as a magnet. Doesn't have to pull back into the fifty.
You could pull back into the twenty one day or
even the ten day moving average. Lots of moving averages.
But the idea is to understand the patterns right. And
just the expression says, history of rhymes. It doesn't repeat,
you know, it repeats rhymes however you want to. We've
seen this over and over and over again, these big
(13:27):
leading areas semiconductors, AI stocks, gold stocks, back in the
nineteen late nineteen nineties into the two thousands, the dot COM's,
any of these themes where you get these leaders, these
areas that just lead the market. They rally, take the
stairs up, as the expression on Wall Street. They rally,
they go sideways, build a new base, break out, rally,
(13:49):
build a new base, break out, so on and so forth.
And they when they break out, they pull back after
every breakout, and they build a new base, and they
pull back into the twenty one day, they back into
the fifty. They bounce off of those areas and boom
off to the races. Sometimes they undercut those areas and
then take off again. It's just how and they land.
These trends last for years, right, and the video has
(14:12):
been a leading stock since we came out of that
twenty twenty two bear market, and now we're heading it
to twenty six almost. This is the fourth quarter of
twenty five, so it's been a long time, and you've
had big dips along the way, even earlier this year
in the video had a huge pullback with the tariff
scare right when the market pulled back in March and April,
(14:33):
but then it found support, bounced and ripped, and now
it's at a new all time high. So again, understanding
chasing stocks, what does that mean? You're buying extended typically
is not a good strategy. Doesn't mean just because you
buy a breakout or just because you buy a fifty
day moving average bounce, you know it has to go up. No,
(14:55):
those can breakouts fail, you know, those fifty day moving
average bounces or twenty one they failed to They happen,
But it's about probability folks. If I that's the theme
for today, it's high probability trades. How do we find
these high probability outcomes? If I if it's this quiet
residential street, I look both ways before I cross it,
(15:15):
and I want to get to the other side of
the street, and there's no cars, and I cross, and
I'm healthy, I can cross the street. It's probably a
good decision. Low probability that I'm not gonna get hit
by a bus crossing that street. Okay, low probability that
I'm gonna hit ahurther, I'll take that trade across the bus.
Jumping on an airplane, same idea. Right, anything can happen.
(15:38):
I could trip and fall, I can God forbid how
some kind of situation occur where a bus hits me.
But it's extremely low probability. Airplane, most likely it's going
to take off and land, it's not going to crash. Okay, great,
getting into cars, so on and so forth. Right, that's
how life works. Same thing with stocks. When you understand
(16:00):
the probabilities and stack the odds of success in your
favor and really minimize risk, you're way ahead of the pack.
Because most people don't even look at risk. They come
into the market. They pull out their calculator and they say, Okay,
if I buy ten thousand shares or one hundred thousand
chairs or a thousand chairs of x y Z, and
it goes up, I'm going to buy a new Ferrari
(16:21):
or a Porsche, or pay off my mortgage or or
or the calculator and they just get lost and with
my friend Andy says, they get lost in the sauce. Oh,
this doc just has to get to one hundred and
then XYZ whatever that number is right, And that's always
this moving scale. It's never never ends right. So okay, great,
if you sell it at one hundred, it goes to
(16:42):
one fifty. Oh my god, I could have money, could
should have it, and then it goes down to sell.
In kindergarten they tell my kids, you get what you get.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
You don't get upset.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Understanding that this is a psychological process, this game, this business,
this investing. It's the biggest competitor is your former self.
Speaker 3 (17:02):
Who's smarter me.
Speaker 2 (17:03):
Today or me ten years ago? Hopefully me today, you today,
you ten years ago? Right, okay, great. A lot of
this business it's buying, right, it's selling when to buy
and when to sell position sizing. If you size your
position too big, you can get in trouble because you
won't be able to handle a normal pullback. If you
size it too small, it's not going to really make
a dent. Even if the stock goes up so much
(17:25):
it'll barely impact your portfolio. But a lot of this
is really understanding the psychology of the invest and trading
and investing, because really controlling that inner conversation is paramount.
Because nobody I know consistently buys every low and sells
(17:45):
every high perfectly.
Speaker 3 (17:46):
It just doesn't happen.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
The good news is you don't have to do that
to be very successful in the business. It's really super important.
But understanding that mindset, Understanding that if you have a
process that's repeatable, not over one trade or two trades,
but over a thousand trades, over ten thousand trades over
the next ten years. You know what's worked in history
If you look back in history, what's worked well. Buying
(18:10):
leaders that's worked right, Buying breakouts that's worked, Having stops
and protective stops, keeping your risks small. Being when you're wrong,
that's okay, be wrong, small when you're right, let those
winners run be right bigger than These are things that
have just time and time again over the decades.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Have worked.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
But a lot of it has to do with making rational,
not emotional decisions with your money. I wrote a book.
It's called Psychological Analysis. Is my contribution to Wall Street.
For those of you that don't know, you can get
on Amazon and if you like it, please leave a
nice review. And the whole idea one sentence, is to
teach people how to make rational, not emotional decisions with
their money. That's the story, that's my passion. Because I
(18:57):
made every emotional decision you probably can't make mistake and
then some and I still do. I have to control
it my inner narrative, right, it's easy to beat myself up.
Oh I could have if I only did this, X
Y Z, if I only did that, How could you
add them?
Speaker 3 (19:14):
You know.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
It's a negative ROI that negative talk in your head.
Flip it, control it. Understand we're humans. It's virtually impossible.
I don't know anyone at least that buys every low
to the penny and sells every high to the penny consistently.
Just doesn't happen. And that's okay. So understanding that that's
(19:41):
not going to happen for me. Took a lot of
pressure off. Oh I just bought a stock and it
went up a lot.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Sold it.
Speaker 7 (19:49):
Great.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Get what I get. Don't get upset After I sold it,
I kept on going. It's so frustrating, of course it's frustrating.
I mean, raise your hand if that ever happened. I'm
sure lots of hands are going.
Speaker 3 (20:02):
Up right now.
Speaker 2 (20:03):
But what do we have to do? Pause, reflect and understand.
It's part of the process baseball, right, we're just talking
about baseball. The best baseball players in the world have
what a three out of ten batting average point three
to three or somewhere along those lines, meaning they connect
three out of ten times, they strike out seven out
of ten times, and they're the best in the world.
(20:24):
More strikeouts than hits. But the same thing as trading,
same thing with baseball. It's asymmetric, the risk versus reward.
When they're wrong, they strike out, they lose one, one out.
Speaker 3 (20:35):
That's it.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
It's the worst that can happen when you strike out. Okay, great,
when you hit it, you get on base, you can
score one, you can score two, you can score three,
or you can hit a grand slam and score four.
So when you're right, you're right four or right three
you're right two, when you're wrong one, that's a winning system.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
Same trade.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
All right, up next, We've got a lot more to cover.
I'm Adam Sarhan. This is the one and only investors
that you want to rank much for be.
Speaker 7 (21:11):
You are listening to America is talcome Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
He's gotta be beat with the crowd.
Speaker 7 (21:18):
Is just on his feet here, just.
Speaker 4 (21:20):
Said your on a boy with Gary Caldbob.
Speaker 6 (21:23):
I'm highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you talk
to him.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. In case you're
just joining us or missed any part of the show,
or you want to rewind anything I say and listen again,
you can go to Gary k dot com, rewind fast
forward listen at your convenience twenty four to seven on
any device you want, all for free.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
All right, So a few thoughts here.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
We spoke about the government shut down, spoke about the market,
spoke about leading areas lagging areas, spoke about probabilities, going
after high probability trades, spoke about risk versus reward, and
I mentioned breakouts and setups, and health stocks move right,
they rally, they take the stairs up and the elevator
down to the old Wall Street adage. What does that mean?
Stares up? Well, all right, you rally, you go sideways,
(22:20):
build a base, and bases come in all different shapes
and sizes, but you basically move sideways, which is the
stair part of it, and then you rally again. It's
the next leg up, and then you base again, and
then you rally again, so on and so forth. In
order to rally, to have that next leg up, you
have to break out of a base. It's just that simple.
And every great leading stock, monster stock, true market leader,
(22:44):
any of these words you want to use to describe
these huge moves, some of these stocks that have just
really just mind boggling moves up over the centuries. Not
just I mean, go look at the tulips way back when,
not just stocks, but other markets. I mean, this is universal.
Any free publicly traded market does this that I know of,
(23:04):
at least stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities. This applies that anything that's
freely publicly traded where there's price and volume, amount in
exchange and multiple people, and the price is determined by
the market. This happens because it's psychology. Fear and greed
drive the markets. It's very simple. Fear and greed drive markets.
(23:28):
The way stocks work, there's something called anchoring. You know.
I have these things called cognitive biases in my book
where I go through some of the cognitive by you
can google it cognitive biases, and I go through some
of them that apply to trading and investing. Well, I
have If you have a mind, you have biases. I
have a mind. I have biases. Okay, Well, which ones
are impacting my decisions unconsciously I'm not even aware of
(23:50):
I want to know what they are. So I spent
years studying them and I put a bunch of them
in the book. One of them is anchoring. Well, what's
an anchor? Is the price that occurs in the stock
that cause is people to anchor value to it. Let's say,
for example, a thought is trading between one hundred and
ninety for six months. Every time it gets to between
(24:11):
ninety and one hundred, every time it gets up towards
one hundred, it pulls back to ninety, and then it
bounces goes back up to one hundred. Bah bah blah
blah bah ninety eight go you know, good, doesn't that
touch one hundred perfectly? Again, it's more of a science
than an arc goes near one hundred, goes ninety eight,
ninety nine, goes down to ninety one, ninety two, and
then goes back up towards ninety six, ninety seven, goes
down to ninety four, ninety five, goes back up to
(24:32):
ninety nine, gets close to one hundred, hits one hundred,
then goes back down again. You know, so on and
so forth for six months or twelve months or three months,
it doesn't matter. Basis come in all different shapes and sizes.
It could be one hundred to eighty, right, I'm just
giving a hypothetical ninety to one hundred here, Okay, great,
that's a range. Resistance is one hundred, and that example,
support is ninety. Resistance is a ceiling. Think of that,
(24:56):
and supports a floor. Okay, well, what does that mean?
Time it gets to one hundred, there's an anchor. There's
something up there that's resistant and stopping the stock from
going higher. In order for that stock to double or
triple or quadruple or go up tenfold, it has to
break out above one hundred literally, it's the only way
it's going to go up if you have a base
like that. In that example, it's got to break out. Now,
(25:19):
every great stock in history breaks out of multiple bit
and then bases again, rallies up, bases breaks out, rallies
up at basis. Okay, great, well, Durning. You know in
present market included during the day stocks breakout. Now, most
breakouts don't work. The ones that do. Just like baseball.
Most times you swing the bat, you're not going to
hit a grand slam.
Speaker 3 (25:41):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
When you breakout doesn't work, you can get out small loss,
no problem. When the breakout works, hey maybe that can
be the next big, huge true market leader or a
big monster stock or you know someone So we never know. Okay,
but I want to be there the moment it breaks out.
That's telling me that something has changed in the market. Now,
how do we find these breakouts? I used to scan
(26:03):
for hours and hours and hours, but I built the
site and can check it out if you want. It's
called Breakouts and Setups dot com. Breakouts and Setups dot com.
He said, all right, I'm scanning thousands of stocks. I
want to find stocks that are breaking out. Have an
algorithm on a team of guys that are way smarter
than me.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Build it.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Okay, great, it's now available today. There were thirty five
breakouts on Breakouts setups dot Com, and there was one
hundred and twenty two setups.
Speaker 3 (26:31):
Let's go through a few of them.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
So this is sorted by price percent change. These are
the biggest movers. Again, these are not buy recommendations. I
just want to see where the money's flowing. When I
see a stock basing for a long time and then
have a huge move up, something changed, especially when it
does on volume. So the first one that shows up
here is Tsha Tysha Gene Therapy. It's a biotech company
(26:58):
loses money, so I'm not touching it with a ten
foot poll, but I want to see it. And it's
a low price. One closed today at five around five bucks. Okay,
it was up fifty three percent. That's a crazy move up. Again,
I'm not touching it. But average volume is three point
five million. This guy had one hundred and twenty one
million shares traded today. Like Gary says, it's not Aunt Mary,
(27:18):
Uncle Bob doing the buying. Those are the big institutions
piling in and this thing has been basing, going sideways
for months to low price stock, loses money.
Speaker 3 (27:27):
I'll pass. Go to the next one.
Speaker 2 (27:29):
Okay, the next one can cn is a ticker Chinese
company bitcoin mining. I get it. Broke out today from
a bottoming pattern. It's a low price stock.
Speaker 3 (27:39):
I'll pass, but.
Speaker 2 (27:40):
I want to see it. LTRX, the next one broke
out from a nice little base here based on top
of the base. All right, noted, Go on to the
next one. ASTs Ast Space Mobile, all right, telecom company.
They're doing satellites. They're losing money now. Big breakout today
on volume, average volumes, ten million shares broke out on
(28:01):
almost thirty million shares above sixty bucks. This guy's going
sideways between sixty ninety five and forty to maybe thirty
six in that range. That was the base the last
several months, and today breaks out above sixty on monster
volume again. Big investors buying Crisper CRSP. The next stock
that showed up, broke out a few days ago, broke
(28:23):
out again today, broke out of a mid level base
a few days ago. Broke out to a new high today,
very strong, fifty two week high. Very strong action there.
Next big breakout APLD applied digital. It's a little bit extended.
I'll pass ZGN. This is an Italian luxury men'swear company. Okay, great,
(28:43):
nice little breakout there, multi month breakout, you can go
back further. Good breakout there. ZGN didn't have the volume
I like, But okay, I want to see what's breaking
out right, and then you just go through them and
go through them and through most are not.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Going to work.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
I'm not going to buy all these breakouts. Here's another one,
Alt Israeli company provides network optimization products. Okay, computer networking
stock broke out today on about average volume.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
All right, no problem.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Next PLSE another biotech com or medical systems company. A
nice mid level, low level breakout there. And then what
else can we show you that's notable? Po n Y
another Chinese stock broke out to a new high and
IPO from last late last year, and then so on
and so forth, and most of these again, I'm not
(29:31):
buying them. I didn't do any buying today. But I
want to see the breakouts. I want to see which
stocks are moving, where's the money right flowing on any
given day. That to me is very helpful. Why because
when you do find a good one, like a week
and a half ago Tesla or two weeks a few
weeks ago Tesla showed up. When was it? It was
(29:52):
on nine to twelve, so a few weeks ago, about
two weeks ago, three weeks ago Tesla showed up on
nine eleven, then nine to twelve as a setup before that,
and then a breakout the second it broke out about
that three sixty seven level. It showed up and I
went from three sixty seven to four thirty five were
it closed today hit a high of four to seventy,
(30:14):
so three seventy to four seventy one hundred bucks in
two or three weeks. That's a really good breakout, right,
And then.
Speaker 3 (30:21):
It gives me clues to see where the mone are
there any.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
Themes that are breaking out? Here's DuPont dd is a
taker makes money chemicals company. Nice mid level breakout there,
nothing to go crazy about it, but good breakout, right.
And then are there other chemical stocks breaking out today?
When the AI stocks are breaking out? A few over
the last several months, great we saw lots of AI
(30:43):
stocks breakout. The steel stock broke out today. Steel Dynamics
sTLD showed up on breakout from setups dot com. Guess
what I you know, Okay, I'm looking at other steel stocks.
I'm not necessarily going to buy it, but it gives
me ideas for themes. And then I'm going to look
around and say, oh, okay, money's flowing like solar stocks.
Money was they were showing up over the last few weeks. Okay,
(31:04):
great a month, a few months ago, it was the
AI stocks, okay.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
Noted right?
Speaker 2 (31:11):
Raw Stores ros T is a ticker broke out above
one fifty three fifty four today.
Speaker 3 (31:18):
All right, one fifty six. Eighteens were closed. It had
a high one to fifty five. It's done fifty. It's
not an all time.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
High breakout, but it's a pretty good mid level breakout.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
So it's noted right, CRG car grews.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Okay, good earnings growth there, little cup and handle. It's
not a thunderous breakout. In fact, it's a low volume
breakout CRG.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
But oh okay, here you go.
Speaker 2 (31:42):
What's moving Ralph laurn RL another breakout today, So again
you're getting themes. Where's the money flowing up?
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Next?
Speaker 2 (31:52):
We've got a lot more to cover. I'm adam sorry,
And this is the one and only Investor's.
Speaker 7 (31:56):
Edge you're listening to, Well, what are you waiting for?
Speaker 5 (32:18):
One too?
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Ready?
Speaker 4 (32:25):
We can't recall pop.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
And welcome once again to Investors Edge. In case you're
just joining us from any part of the show, you
can go to Gary k dot com, rewind, fast forward
listen at your convenience anytime you want. Twenty four to seven. So,
all right, we spoke about a lot so far, and
go back and listen. But we only have a few
minutes left, so I want to get it to the
other side of this. It's the breakouts is again, find
(32:55):
the themes fine stocks that are breaking out. Look for
abnormal volume on the breakouts. The heavier the volume, the better.
Look for big price movements. That tells you it's the
big institutions moving it. It's not just like Gary says
Aunt Mary nuncle Bob, with the big institutions, And that's
really where the big setups are and the biggest the
big movement comes when the big institutions pile into a
(33:16):
stock and then Aunt Mary knuckle Bob tend to follow.
But you know, I want to find big, heavy volume movers,
those tend to be really good, that are breaking out
on volume, and then find themes right if we see
a lot of oil stocks moving up, oh maybe I
should watch oil, or a lot of gold stocks a
few months ago were breaking out a all right, and
then gold has a huge move up the GDX. If
you look at the GDX, it broke out in August.
(33:39):
GLD broke out in September. Doesn't always happen, but it's
really encouraging when you see the commodity stocks lead the commodity. Well,
how'd I know what was happening was g DX and
g A lot of gold stocks were breaking out while
GLD was basing, and then all of a sudd, GLD
(34:00):
breaks out in September and just rips higher. All right,
not a mistake. So those are the breakouts. Now the setups.
Here's some setups from breakouts and setups. Dot Com Microsoft
had a huge move up from April three forty four
up to five fifty five in August, and then it
has to consolidate. Take the stairs up, right, big move
(34:22):
up builds a base consolidate, so now it's basing along
the fifty. That's a setup. It hasn't broken out yet,
but it's setting up to break out right. Broadcom Avgo,
another setup, had a huge gap up a few weeks
ago when they reported earnings, and now he's been moving
moving sideways for the last.
Speaker 3 (34:38):
Few weeks to consolidate that move up.
Speaker 2 (34:41):
Walmart talked about resistance earlier as being a ceiling all right,
one oh five, one o six areas resistance for Walmart.
It's at one o one and it's been doing that
since February.
Speaker 3 (34:52):
More or less.
Speaker 2 (34:52):
You had to dip in April, March and April because
of the tariffs.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
It came right back and now you're basing.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
If this thing can break out above one oh six
on volume so highlightly, it has another chance to move higher.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
Doesn't have to again.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Most breakouts don't work, and that's okay, providing there's a
stop right pltr pound tier. Another great setup slash breakout
broke broke out today from a little cup and handled
base light volume one ninety was the high from a
few months ago, and now you're at one eighty seven.
(35:25):
Something to note, AMD right had a huge move up
seventy six to one eighty six, and then he pulled back.
He built a new base for the last few months,
and now he's coming up the right side of the base.
He's back above the fifty today as a setup right,
IBM huge cup forming there, big base two ninety six
is a high. He's at two eighty six again setting up.
(35:47):
So it's not just the breakouts. I want to find
stock setting up to breakout as well. TJX. We spoke
about Ross stores and Raef Laurent breaking out well. TJX
is setting up the breakout.
Speaker 3 (35:58):
One fifty eight.
Speaker 4 (35:59):
Was a high.
Speaker 2 (36:00):
He's now at one forty two forty nine. That to
me is valuable. Right etn eaton Power Company. Okay, great,
the group is ranked seventeen out of one ninety seven
strong group. He's forming a cup and handle right below
the handle. Okay, good set up there, Spotify huge move
from April four to seventy five to seven eighty five
(36:21):
in June, slash July okay, pulls back, builds a base,
cup and handle here seven forty eight thirty or seven
forty five, depending on which.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
High you want to use.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Either way, he's forming a nice handle. A breakout around
above seven forty five or above above seven forty eight
thirty will be real bullish.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
And he's at seven oh seven again.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
That's how these setups work, right before the stock breaks
out look at crowd strikes CRWD another setup on breakouts
and setups five oh seven twenty it was a recent high.
He's got a cup, a little handle here, breakout above
five oh seven thirty are he go dime above it
and boom he breaks out. Not only do I want
to find out the breakouts, I want to find out
the stocks setting up to breakout before they break out.
(37:04):
Just because he's setting up doesn't mean he has to
break out again. This is an art more than an
exact science.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
But what am I doing.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
I'm eliminating a lot of the laggards and I'm focusing
like a hawk on leaders. And that's the match. It's
higher probability outcomes. An object in motion intends to stay
in motion. Someone taught me way back when in the
late ninetieshen I got started in the business or started
learning about investing and in the business, was hey, you
want to buy stocks that are going up, look at
the new high list. That's it. Don't just blindly buy
(37:33):
a stock on the new high list because you could
be extended. Like we spoke about earlier with the semi conductors.
Now we're gold now. But you want to find stocks
going up, look at new highs. So again the breakouts
and setups and that's how they work. So I hope
that's helpful for you. Again, I want to give you
a value. And that's how I want to help. Is
it changed my life? Because otherwise it's overwhelming. There's thousands
(37:54):
of stocks out there and ETFs and commodities and current
it's too much. I got to filter it down to
a universe. I want to find those leaders, and then
find those leaders as they're setting up, and then see
them when they are breaking out. See Tesla the day
it broke out.
Speaker 3 (38:11):
That's value for me. Right.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
So as we wrap up, well, we're getting towards the
end of the show here again putting the pieces together.
The market short term is getting extended. Can easily pull back.
Watch support near the twenty one day moving average and
then the fifty day moving average for the major indsease
the NASDAQ one hundred, the QQQ is the leading index
this year, continues to be a leading index. Why semiconductors
(38:38):
tech stocks are leading and the NASDAK one hundred is
tech heavy index, all right, shocker it's leading. But the
S and P is also really strong.
Speaker 3 (38:49):
Of the Spy and.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
The Russell two thousand and the IWM. That kind of
woke up over the last few weeks as the Fed
hinted at Fed cuts. Now we'll see what happens. Government
shut down. Tomorrow is supposed to be the jobs don't
think it's coming out with the jobs report. It'll be delayed.
That's okay for now. We'll see how long this government
shutdown lasts. If it's a really long time or things
get really ugly, hey the marketing easily sell off. But
(39:12):
if it's just a short term, you know, a game
of chicken here or just holding breath a little. At
both sides of the hole. They want to act tough
and then one side's gonna cave.
Speaker 6 (39:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
That typically that's been the playbook for prior government shutdowns.
And the market knows that, but again want the price
because all the news is filtered into the price. From
my standpoint and based on my knowledge, right, we're all
looking at the news and what people do. Each person's
free to do whatever they want, but it shows up
(39:42):
in the price. And then when there's a new catalyst,
new earnings, new data, new jobs report, whatever that new
inflation report, whatever that catalyst is, things change and then
you see the price react. Sometimes the price moves in advance,
like the FED cuts. The market sniff out of FED
cut weeks before the actual cut.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
And then when the.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
Actual news happens, Oh, it sells off by the rumor.
Sell the news is the expression there. So take your time, everybody.
I believe that's the end of the show. I want
to thank you very much for being here. I believe
Gary back tomorrow. Gary says, how the children enjoy, enjoy
life is a blessing.
Speaker 3 (40:20):
Enjoy it. I'll speak to you against you.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary cult Moom on
biz Talk. To listen to past episodes or to get
in contact with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's
garykay dot com.
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