Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And well once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kolbaum,
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you hear, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.
It's Wednesday, August thirteen, twenty twenty five. Hope you're having
a good day, ladies and gentlemen. What we are here
for serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do
the markets and we have a lot to say on
the markets today. I mean a lot to say on
(00:36):
the markets today because the jello is moving on the plate.
Take a plate, you know what I mean. We'll do
the economy, your job, your industry, anything that's emanating out
of DC just sheer insanity. We'll get to that in
(00:59):
a minute. If you don't get this show in your city,
we'll post it at Gary k dot com. Willas posted
on our X feed, and if you don't follow us
X you should. If you'd like to email me, just
be nice. A little update, as we have told you,
(01:19):
my father is going on ninety four. A two months
ago I thought it was party. We were in the hospital.
He was not. He had pneumonia. Very often at that age,
you have pneumonia, look out, Rabbi comes in, doctor looks
(01:39):
at me. Next day the em pneumonia goes away. But
what's happened recently, and I've heard from many of you,
just deterioration and it's very tough, you know, It's It's funny.
What I'll tend to do is I'll google the words
(02:00):
life expectancy of a male in the United States and
I look at seventy eight and I say, big win,
he's going to be ninety four. Doesn't help my brother.
He was home. My brother took him to the hospital today.
He rested comfortably, but you know, lost a lot of weight,
(02:22):
lost a lot of energy, and I'm gonna be running
up there and that's that. Wasn't going to do the
radio show today, but I felt it necessary because we
are here for you. We're here for us also, And
by the way, doing the radio show is therapy as
(02:46):
far as I'm concerned. And when we say to you
there's a lot of jello moving on the plate in
the markets, we mean it. So we want you to
listen carefully. In no particular or well actually in a
particular order. Yesterday we came on the show and said
(03:13):
pretty much that the broad market we thought woke up.
We have been whining, complaining to you about how the
meat of the market was just doing nothing, how the transports,
(03:34):
you know, all the areas, and yesterday we had stated
to you we thought the rest of the market woke up.
And when we mean the rest of the market, it's
what you haven't heard about, the housing, housing related transports,
(03:54):
the beginning hit hard, economically sensitive stuff, you know, the
things that really are attached to the economy, some retail
our stuff, page small caps. We have been telling you
(04:14):
we have this one screen and they're not small caps,
but they they're small caps, and and these are all
kinds of stocks that have been in bearish mode, bearish
phase down trends week. Yesterday we recognize two things and
(04:41):
you never know the next day. You just you go
with what you see. We think we have decent eyes,
and of course when wrong, we're wrong fast and wrong.
Small never lose big. And two things happened yesterday. Of note,
strong small caps and mid caps. And as you know,
(05:04):
we have stated to you, and this is of the
import the Russell two thousand had another good day today
two percent. Not the biggest the deal, but two percent.
And it's important to note the Russell two thousand at
the close today, even with this rally up off of
(05:27):
April and this little rally the last couple of days,
is training where it did February of twenty one, four years,
four and a half years, let's call it. And the
old high twenty four sixty six, it's twenty three to
twenty eight, so still off the old highs, while many
(05:51):
things are at highs. Russell two thousand. So we said
to you yesterday we thought that it had woken up,
and yet another good day today. In fact, closed yesterday
on the Russell at the day before twenty two sixteen,
(06:13):
we're twenty three twenty eight already one hundred and twelve.
That's about five percent in two days, a little more
than five, right, And why does the Russell go up
five percent? Well, they're smaller, they're less liquid, both up
and down. So that's number one. But number two also
(06:35):
was the home builder's slash housing related and full and
fair disclosure we always do to you. We tried it
a few weeks ago and got stopped out because bottoming
processes are not easy. But we have stated to you,
and we don't state this often, that there's a gentleman
by the name of Stan Weinstein, one of the greatest
(06:57):
technicians of all time. He has this stage analysis. On
top of what we do breakouts things like that, he
has the stage analysis where stage one is after a
bear market, you start bottoming, which means you stop going
down and you sit around for a while, and then
you go in the late stage of stage one, which
(07:19):
means you're starting to turn up. But and then you
head into stage two, which means you're starting to ascend.
And then I know this sounds crazy, two A and
two B, which means you're really getting going. And we
have been telling you the housing housing related have been
better and the volume patterns have been pretty good, and
(07:39):
we got stopped out small loss, not the end of
the world. Well, we think today that stage two got
really confirmed today. And what we mean by that is
if you look at the chart pattern not only bottoming
and starting to hurl up, but starting to really turn up,
(08:03):
whether or not at lasts or lot not, I don't know.
You just never know. You just go with the patterns
you see So the home builders very strong day to day.
The home builder related stocks very strong day today. And
what we mean by that you ready home depot. I
think we mentioned, we mentioned home depots in the last
(08:25):
few days. Their numbers are not good, their earnings are
not good, their sales are not good. Lows, their earnings
are not good. Their sales are not good. Restoration hardware,
Williams Sonoma, just things you put in your homes. Pool
ink which is simple pool mortgage related homes. And how
(08:51):
about the mobile homes also strong day to day? How
about four percent on those areas. And we're not just
talking to builders like leonor but the things the construction
(09:11):
of the homes as well as what you put in them.
What's going on? Well, the ten year yield dropped today
to four point twenty four. But they have this little
bedding thing or analysts say there's a ninety nine chance
of a rate cut. Excuse me in September people talking
(09:33):
about a half point now. Now, whether or not that
happens or not, I don't know. All I can tell
you the market's making a big bed advance. The client
figures yesterday very strong advanced. The client figures again very
strong today, why because the rest of the market's getting bought.
(09:54):
But on the other end of the spectrum, Meta down
nine and change we're Soft down nine and change, Oracle
down nine and change catching the drift. BROADCLM down five,
was down eight, and I can list others, but you
(10:17):
get the point. Netflix down twenty, money flowing out of
Mega intwo the rest not one hundred percent, not everything,
but the rest up next. We'll continue along these lines
lots the cover. I'm Gary.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
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Speaker 4 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
You're listening to okay, it could be fun Investor's Edge,
the last bastion of quality programming with Gary called bomb.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
It doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this, and well once again to Investor's Edge.
So again, my screens are a lot of green, except
for the megacaps. Apple was up. That's because of the
(12:41):
tariff thing, but also they came after a bunch of
the things that were working contract manufacturers, something like a
ge in the aerospace, the data center, power electric company,
these and the like. So a lot of jello moving
(13:06):
on the plate, ladies and gentlemen. And with the understand this,
with the Russell two thousand up about two percent today,
the Nasdaq one hundred flat, with the Russell two thousand
up to two percent, and the Dow up one percent,
(13:26):
the S and P was up three tenths of a
percent in the Dow today. There are two names that
are housing related for the most part, Home Depot, Sherwin Williams.
(13:50):
They accounted for one hundred and fifty Dow points between
one forty and fifty two names. And as we said yesterday,
United Health looks like it may have woken up. That
was sixty five Dow points again today and they bought
(14:11):
up the worst stocks in the market today, like Salesforce
dot Com that's in the Dow five points. So strong
day for the Dow also one percent, but NASDAK one hundred,
hardly budge. NASDAK was upo point one point five. Megacaps
(14:33):
got hit change of complexion. We'll see if it continues.
Don't know if it continues or not. Things like the
United Rentals was up another couple of percent today And
as I look at my screen, Sherwin Williams, United Rentals,
(14:57):
w W Granger. These are them moovers, the Transport's Union,
Pacific Rider, Old Dominion. We told you about the retail,
especially what goes into homes, but retail had a good tone.
Oils bounced and we mentioned United Health and again if
(15:22):
that gets moving. China was strong, in fact very strong. Overnight.
Ali Baba broke above a little range FUTU I think
hit new highs, ty new highs. My worst screen bounced,
some of the worst stocks in the market bounced. Why
(15:49):
markets going elsewhere? How long it lasts, I don't know.
And as I went through what I mentioned, home depot
earnings down three percent, what I mentioned lows earnings down
five percent and revenues down two percent. So this is
interest rate related and a pretty interesting move away from
(16:11):
some things and into other things. And as I mentioned
again the housing related ETFs, the small cap ETFs, which
have underperformed big time, the midcaps had another good day today.
That's MDY you can look at. And just this other
(16:33):
what I call stuff now that didn't mean growth wasn't okay.
The semis are economically sensitive, so you had some good moves,
and there was some news on AMD that had it
up nine bucks. AMD gap down on earnings and right
back up. So the semis were okay today and most
(16:55):
importantly again great advanced the climb. Now, as always, just
a few things I want you to continue to be
careful about. Remember what I told you about the recent
initial public offerings. What do we tell you just so
(17:16):
you know they are opening them up hot and then
they're cramming them, meaning thirty dollars. Stocks are opening up
at one hundred and closing at ninety and a week
later that's fifty. I'm just giving you an example. We
mentioned some of the names, well, they came out with
(17:38):
another one today and we hope you listen. There's a company.
The name of the company is Bullish, just bullsh bu
lli sh. It's out of the Cayman Islands. It's in
Cayman Islands based digital asset platform that provides for structure
(18:00):
and information services. Another crypto. I went to their website.
I cannot figure out their numbers. Normally you go to
one of these websites and you get numbers. I go
to Investors' relations I'm looking for numbers. Well, it says
(18:23):
published in the Initial public Offering Files registration three weeks ago.
I'm looking for numbers. I don't see any numbers. But
it's crypto in this and crypto in that. Usually I
get a ten K, ten Q and all that crap.
I don't see it Ooh, sec filings. I got an
(18:47):
S eight. Now all I see is securities registrations, so
I can't tell you if they have earnings or sales,
what have you. That is not a commentary on the company.
I am going to talk about this stock thirty seven
dollars deal within a minute of the opening, it was
(19:12):
one hundred and eighteen dollars. But that'd be nice if
you had the thirty seven dollars stock opened it one
hundred and eighteen dollars closed at sixty eight. Anybody who
bought today lost their money. And as I see it,
(19:35):
it closed on the lows. That is correct. So our
warning shot still in place. And I will check these
companies out, especially this. I want to know, do they
have numbers, do they have sales, do they have earnings?
(19:56):
What's the deal? Because we owe always worry about stuff
that comes public that may or may not be less
than stellar. And again this is not a comment. I
don't have facts just yet. What I do know is
as a stock again, as a stock again, a hot
(20:21):
open gets yunked. Huh. What's funny is I see audited
financial statements and I try to click on them and
it does not let me in the last one show
in twenty twenty three. Hm, I'm still looking I'm Gary.
(20:44):
This is the one only investor's edge.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
You are listening to. America is talking of investors edge.
Speaker 3 (21:16):
He's gotta be the crowd is just on his feet here.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Boy with Gary called Bob come highly recommended. You're gonna
feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Yeah. So I got some financials and I'm reading Digital Asset.
I don't know if that's a sail or not.
Speaker 3 (21:44):
You know what.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
We're gonna wait till I get more info before I
yap away on this. But the most important thing is
be careful about hot opens and I p o s
right now.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
It's not the first, it's not the last, and we
don't want you to lose your RS. This was yapped
about when it opened. Today one eighteen closed its sixty eight.
One eighteen to sixty eight. That's fifty bucks on one eighteen.
I'm gonna call it forty five percent, give or take
(22:20):
a couple percent. Catch a drift main points again. Big
move the last two days into small caps from large.
I know that Dow's up, but that's the big move
(22:42):
into other stuff down and outs and even United Health,
which if you have been a shareholder, I'm happy for you.
And in case you don't know, United Health this week
is up time six about one hundred and fifty doll
(23:03):
points itself, and it's Wednesday. Other managed care stocks abounds,
and keep in mind it's still down about fifty five
percent from April, which is quite the humbling. May I
state for the record. Anything else that sticks out, I
think I explained it pretty darn good. Again when these
(23:27):
moves start to happen. When they happen, we just don't
know how long, if they're gonna last or not. We
told you that the small caps got going a couple
of times last year and just got kicked in the teeth.
Got kicked in the teeth. I'm being asked a lot
about ethereum, just letting you know they're playing cash up
to bitcoin just and I do believe the bitcoin, at
(23:49):
least the ETFs. Let me see if they finished at
the highs today. Yes, the ib it finished at the
high and the g yeah, finished right at the highs.
So new highs on the bitcoin, the crypto. But they
(24:10):
tell us there's no bubbles. Okay, we'll see how it
plays out. Just remember crypto drops seventy five percent in
the last bear market, but leave no doubt when you
have a finite amount of whatever it is, and now
you're getting the administration and his family neck deep in it,
and you have a guy at micro Strategy borrowing money
(24:32):
and issuing stock to buy more, which, by the way,
that's a lagging stock. It's new highs today on the crypto,
and that's that. Interest rates came down today, that's good news.
(24:53):
Oil prices came down. Mortgage rates tickening a little bit down.
A lot of people are talking about and I think
some people are missing the point of what happened. Let
me explain to you again. The President is ripping Jpale
for not lowering rates right now, but Jaypowell really hasn't
done anything wrong right there. He could be a quarter
(25:14):
or a half point. The President, as usual as loves finding
an enemy and putting him front and center, just like
he did with that woman at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
She's probably got death threats because he said she cheated
and rigged it, which pisses me off. But we move
on j Powell where he screwed up big time. Just
(25:35):
remember what happened with housing. He took rates to zero,
you got three percent mortgages, you got to refinance down
to three percent in under people buying homes three percent
and under What did that do? It unleashed the price
of housing. So housing went kind of vertical for a
(25:56):
couple of years during COVID and after COVID vertical, which
ended up with fantasy land prices and at the same
time fantasy Land prices. Who the hell wants to sell?
Why would I sell a home that I have a
three percent mortgage? Oh, by the way, it's now seven.
So a lot of that went on. But now people
(26:17):
wanting to sell, but they're putting them up at fantasy
land prices. So what's happening right now? Especially where I'm
looking at a lot of places, everything is a lowered price.
Prices are coming down, days for sale are going up.
(26:38):
Where it lands, I have no clue how it lands.
I have no clue. I am just telling you I
still see people trying to sell homes fifty to one
hundred percent higher than two years ago. Good luck. I've
seen some homes sold, I've seen it, but for the
(27:02):
most part, sing a lot not. And I'm also seeing
a lot of homes now starting to come off for
sale because they weren't getting the price so we'll keep
you informed. We keep hearing all this talk affordability, which
Jay Powell's fault. What did I tell you what happens
when you rig markets, you end up with lots of distortions.
(27:25):
When all's said and done, we have a distortion in
the home market. I feel bad for people wanting starter
homes right now. You're paying up if you're buying, and
your mortgage rates are up a lot higher than they
were because of j Powell. If he would have left
well enough alone, affordability would be much better. Now. Do
(27:47):
I think it can turn into an eight? I'm not there,
and we've told you that I'm not there. My guess
is no, but we'll keep advising. Is more cards come
out of the deck? I got asked about core Weave.
This is one of those hot IPOs that did have
a good run. Was down thirty one bucks today, down
(28:11):
twenty one percent on their earnings report. Well, first off,
it rallied up beforehand. But just another company that loses
money with strong revenue growth. By the way, cloud platform
for accelerating general whatever AI. Just let you know. I
(28:33):
got asked by on CrCL. Also, this Circle Internet loses
even more money that was down ten today. Well, they
did a secondary, or they're doing a secondary that's putting
more shares on the market, a big selling shareholder cashing out.
We'll let you know if we start to see a
lot of secondaries. You don't want to see a lot
(28:56):
because that's more stock being put on the market. We
shall see. But my big point on the IPOs again,
be careful of the hot stuff. And by the way,
I haven't mentioned a bunch I didn't mention fig They
had it up the second day at one hundred and
(29:17):
forty five bucks. Eight days later it's eighty one. That's
over forty percent too. So just watch your p's and
q's if you buy into Frenzy. How about et O
r caame public, had it eighty bucks in June, it's
(29:43):
forty eight today. Want me to do more. I'm just
going through a couple as I speak. M NTN that's
not called Mountain, it's just m NTN transform Connected TV
into next generation performance. Small company loses a bunch of money.
(30:04):
That was thirty two bucks four days ago, it's twenty
three today as they announced another big loss thirty two
to twenty three. What is it about? Twenty eight percent? Right,
see where we're going with this SLDE They had it
at twenty six bucks in June fifteen. Today, and again
(30:29):
we are not ribbing the companies. We are talking about
what's happening in the stock market. When they're putting out
some hot IPOs, you are getting kicked in the teeth
if you buy into the frenzy. How about why White
Fiber just came public four days ago? Right, it'll hire
a twenty five at seventeen. Yeah, we know what we're uh. Remember,
(30:57):
everything we do, everything comes out of what the market's saying.
And again the market today said something about coming out
of some of the megacaps, and boy oh boy, two
days in a row of small caps and the housing
and housing related and the stuff and strong advanced declines
(31:26):
and all that. Hey, lastly's Cisco Systems reported in the
aftermarket was one of the greatest stocks of the nineties. Umm,
it's been acting very well. By the way, closed at
seventy forty. I got it at sixty eight eighty up
down a buck sixty? What be do hey up next?
(31:47):
News of today? Whatever else? This is the one only
investor's edge.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
You're listening to. What are you waiting for? One ready.
We can't recalled pot.
Speaker 2 (32:38):
All right, hey, just every now and then we get
facts and figures. It's it's not hard to figure out, uh,
whether something's expensive or not, you know. So we got
another one today, just letting you know, the history of
(32:58):
financial markets has never seen this before. The S and
P five hundred technology sector price. The sales ratio is
now ten times the highest ever. Even at the two
thousand dot com bubble peak, the ratio is only seven
point eight times. Just let you know something to have
(33:22):
in the file manager. We just wanted to let you know. Also,
you know they have you know who Shiller is, right,
the Shiller pe, forward pe and all that stuff. Book
value thing is back at a year two thousand high.
(33:44):
Just letting you know. We also want to let you know,
you know what a leveraged ETF is, right, exchange trade
and fun where you can do doubles and triples, you
know that, right, you can do triple less and P
double s and P and either way. I don't think
they've kept their end of the bargain. Just so you
know what I mean by that is, well, they're telling
(34:06):
you it's supposed to move two FORO one or three
for one, and very often it doesn't. But I digress
Leveraged Equity ETF. The assets has climbed to one hundred
and nineteen billion at the end of July, the highest
on record Morning Star records going back to nineteen ninety three. Meanwhile,
(34:34):
that's betting on the upside. Meanwhile, inverse ETF's betting on
the downside drop from a twenty two billion dollar peak
in twenty two down to twelve point five billion. So
big bets on the upside and bets on the downside.
Not many the s and P five hundred's priced the
(34:59):
peak earnings. This ratio has moved up to twenty six
point seven, its highest level since two thousand and over
fifty five percent above its historic median, the average. So
we're just letting you know. Valuations trees. I've seen them
(35:22):
go higher. I remember in ninety eight valuations were in
the trees and ninety nine to the upside until we
topped in March of two thousand and we're not saying
this to scare you. We're saying it to give you facts.
The market's acting fine. It's now broadening out, selling off
(35:45):
some other things though, but broadening out. But this has
come upon my little desk and we thought you should know.
But I'm not done. The Nasdaq market cap relative to
US GDP hit one hundred and five percent and all
(36:07):
time high. It is nearly doubled since the twenty two
bear market low and now is forty percentage points above
the dot com bubble. It's also a record relative to
the world GDP. Have I depressed the hell out of you?
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yet?
Speaker 2 (36:30):
We just like state in fact, kids, that's all, that's
all we're interested in doing, and we do it for us,
and we do it for you, and we will stay
vigilant at all times because combine what I just told
you with the froth and speculation and some weird stuff.
(36:53):
I'm seeing fifteen billion dollar market caps on no sales companies. Bill. Yeah,
and that's a little bit of everything else I'd love
(37:13):
to do in the news, but there's so many things
that are so weird out there. I'm gonna leave that
alone for me. From all of you. Really appreciate the
kind words and the emails. I can tell you the
(37:35):
emotions I have gone through are new. Last year Thanksgiving,
my mom passed so appreciative ninety one. My father's ninety
three still kicking though. Just heard from my brother during
the break. But I have to tell you all of
you that have emailed have helped me out because we
(37:59):
all go through life and experience new things, good, bad,
and different life death. I just kind of new grandson
a year ago. It's just you know where I'm coming from, right,
(38:20):
And of course as you get older it gets tougher.
But I'm appreciative you all be pretty darn cool. I
can promise you that going forward we're determined. Well hopefully
my father lives to one five. Just letting you know,
(38:41):
we're going to continue to work our butt off. We'll
continue when wrong, be wrong, fast be wrong, small when right,
try to let them run. Try to have a good
eye on everything, without any agenda, ulterior motive or bias.
Take on all comers. As you know, we hit them hard,
doesn't matter whether they're Republican or Democrat.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
Oh.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
By the way, July's deficit was two hundred and ninety
one billion. They were telling us how great things were
because the month before there was a surplus, but I
didn't hear them talking. Those same people were not out
today talking about two hundred and ninety one billion deficit
for the month of July. I want you to all
remember that the people that are in the tank don't
(39:29):
care about you. They care about protecting their side, such
as life. We're through a lot of earning season. It's
quite gonna quiet down. We keep being told that August
(39:49):
and September are bad, but maybe bad for some areas
right now, but the broad market coming on if anything changes,
will let you know. You all have a great evening.
Drive carefully when you get home, do like I do well.
As soon as I get up to the northeast, I'll
(40:10):
be given the data. Big hug and my brother who's
been doing a yeomen's job, make sure you hug your
children also have a good evening. Everybody really appreciate you.
Good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbom on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And well once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kolbaum,
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you hear, ladies and gentlemen. Happy that you are listening.
It's Wednesday, August thirteen, twenty twenty five. Hope you're having
a good day, ladies and gentlemen. What we are here
for serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do
the markets and we have a lot to say on
the markets today. I mean a lot to say on
(00:36):
the markets today because the jello is moving on the plate.
Take a plate, you know what I mean. We'll do
the economy, your job, your industry, anything that's emanating out
of DC just sheer insanity. We'll get to that in
(00:59):
a minute. If you don't get this show in your city,
we'll post it at Gary k dot com. Willas posted
on our X feed, and if you don't follow us
X you should. If you'd like to email me, just
be nice. A little update, as we have told you,
(01:19):
my father is going on ninety four. A two months
ago I thought it was party. We were in the hospital.
He was not. He had pneumonia. Very often at that age,
you have pneumonia, look out, Rabbi comes in, doctor looks
(01:39):
at me. Next day the em pneumonia goes away. But
what's happened recently, and I've heard from many of you,
just deterioration and it's very tough, you know, It's It's funny.
What I'll tend to do is I'll google the words
(02:00):
life expectancy of a male in the United States and
I look at seventy eight and I say, big win,
he's going to be ninety four. Doesn't help my brother.
He was home. My brother took him to the hospital today.
He rested comfortably, but you know, lost a lot of weight,
(02:22):
lost a lot of energy, and I'm gonna be running
up there and that's that. Wasn't going to do the
radio show today, but I felt it necessary because we
are here for you. We're here for us also, And
by the way, doing the radio show is therapy as
(02:46):
far as I'm concerned. And when we say to you
there's a lot of jello moving on the plate in
the markets, we mean it. So we want you to
listen carefully. In no particular or well actually in a
particular order. Yesterday we came on the show and said
(03:13):
pretty much that the broad market we thought woke up.
We have been whining, complaining to you about how the
meat of the market was just doing nothing, how the transports,
(03:34):
you know, all the areas, and yesterday we had stated
to you we thought the rest of the market woke up.
And when we mean the rest of the market, it's
what you haven't heard about, the housing, housing related transports,
(03:54):
the beginning hit hard, economically sensitive stuff, you know, the
things that really are attached to the economy, some retail
our stuff, page small caps. We have been telling you
(04:14):
we have this one screen and they're not small caps,
but they they're small caps, and and these are all
kinds of stocks that have been in bearish mode, bearish
phase down trends week. Yesterday we recognize two things and
(04:41):
you never know the next day. You just you go
with what you see. We think we have decent eyes,
and of course when wrong, we're wrong fast and wrong.
Small never lose big. And two things happened yesterday. Of note,
strong small caps and mid caps. And as you know,
(05:04):
we have stated to you, and this is of the
import the Russell two thousand had another good day today
two percent. Not the biggest the deal, but two percent.
And it's important to note the Russell two thousand at
the close today, even with this rally up off of
(05:27):
April and this little rally the last couple of days,
is training where it did February of twenty one, four years,
four and a half years, let's call it. And the
old high twenty four sixty six, it's twenty three to
twenty eight, so still off the old highs, while many
(05:51):
things are at highs. Russell two thousand. So we said
to you yesterday we thought that it had woken up,
and yet another good day today. In fact, closed yesterday
on the Russell at the day before twenty two sixteen,
(06:13):
we're twenty three twenty eight already one hundred and twelve.
That's about five percent in two days, a little more
than five, right, And why does the Russell go up
five percent? Well, they're smaller, they're less liquid, both up
and down. So that's number one. But number two also
(06:35):
was the home builder's slash housing related and full and
fair disclosure we always do to you. We tried it
a few weeks ago and got stopped out because bottoming
processes are not easy. But we have stated to you,
and we don't state this often, that there's a gentleman
by the name of Stan Weinstein, one of the greatest
(06:57):
technicians of all time. He has this stage analysis. On
top of what we do breakouts things like that, he
has the stage analysis where stage one is after a
bear market, you start bottoming, which means you stop going
down and you sit around for a while, and then
you go in the late stage of stage one, which
(07:19):
means you're starting to turn up. But and then you
head into stage two, which means you're starting to ascend.
And then I know this sounds crazy, two A and
two B, which means you're really getting going. And we
have been telling you the housing housing related have been
better and the volume patterns have been pretty good, and
(07:39):
we got stopped out small loss, not the end of
the world. Well, we think today that stage two got
really confirmed today. And what we mean by that is
if you look at the chart pattern not only bottoming
and starting to hurl up, but starting to really turn up,
(08:03):
whether or not at lasts or lot not, I don't know.
You just never know. You just go with the patterns
you see So the home builders very strong day to day.
The home builder related stocks very strong day today. And
what we mean by that you ready home depot. I
think we mentioned, we mentioned home depots in the last
(08:25):
few days. Their numbers are not good, their earnings are
not good, their sales are not good. Lows, their earnings
are not good. Their sales are not good. Restoration hardware,
Williams Sonoma, just things you put in your homes. Pool
ink which is simple pool mortgage related homes. And how
(08:51):
about the mobile homes also strong day to day? How
about four percent on those areas. And we're not just
talking to builders like leonor but the things the construction
(09:11):
of the homes as well as what you put in them.
What's going on? Well, the ten year yield dropped today
to four point twenty four. But they have this little
bedding thing or analysts say there's a ninety nine chance
of a rate cut. Excuse me in September people talking
(09:33):
about a half point now. Now, whether or not that
happens or not, I don't know. All I can tell
you the market's making a big bed advance. The client
figures yesterday very strong advanced. The client figures again very
strong today, why because the rest of the market's getting bought.
(09:54):
But on the other end of the spectrum, Meta down
nine and change we're Soft down nine and change, Oracle
down nine and change catching the drift. BROADCLM down five,
was down eight, and I can list others, but you
(10:17):
get the point. Netflix down twenty, money flowing out of
Mega intwo the rest not one hundred percent, not everything,
but the rest up next. We'll continue along these lines
lots the cover. I'm Gary.
Speaker 3 (10:36):
This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Hi, I'm Gary Kolbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show,
Investor's Edge. We're not just handsome radio people. We manage
investors' money for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary
money management. No big commissions, just a fee on the
assets that's managed. We also provide a full range of
personalized services, including retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs,
(11:25):
all to assist you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding
not all individuals have the same needs, will carefully evaluate
your personal goals to determine a proper investment strategy. If
your current approach to investing is not getting you to
where you would like to be, call us to make
an appointment for a complementary portfolio review. The number to
call is eight eight eight four two two five five
(11:47):
five nine. That's eight eight eight four two two five
to five five nine. That's eight eight eight four two
two five to five, five to nine. Investment Advisory Services
offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 5 (12:09):
You're listening to okay, it could be fun Investor's Edge,
the last bastion of quality programming with Gary called bomb.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
It doesn't get.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Better than this, and well once again to Investor's Edge.
So again, my screens are a lot of green, except
for the megacaps. Apple was up. That's because of the
(12:41):
tariff thing, but also they came after a bunch of
the things that were working contract manufacturers, something like a
ge in the aerospace, the data center, power electric company,
these and the like. So a lot of jello moving
(13:06):
on the plate, ladies and gentlemen. And with the understand this,
with the Russell two thousand up about two percent today,
the Nasdaq one hundred flat, with the Russell two thousand
up to two percent, and the Dow up one percent,
(13:26):
the S and P was up three tenths of a
percent in the Dow today. There are two names that
are housing related for the most part, Home Depot, Sherwin Williams.
(13:50):
They accounted for one hundred and fifty Dow points between
one forty and fifty two names. And as we said yesterday,
United Health looks like it may have woken up. That
was sixty five Dow points again today and they bought
(14:11):
up the worst stocks in the market today, like Salesforce
dot Com that's in the Dow five points. So strong
day for the Dow also one percent, but NASDAK one hundred,
hardly budge. NASDAK was upo point one point five. Megacaps
(14:33):
got hit change of complexion. We'll see if it continues.
Don't know if it continues or not. Things like the
United Rentals was up another couple of percent today And
as I look at my screen, Sherwin Williams, United Rentals,
(14:57):
w W Granger. These are them moovers, the Transport's Union,
Pacific Rider, Old Dominion. We told you about the retail,
especially what goes into homes, but retail had a good tone.
Oils bounced and we mentioned United Health and again if
(15:22):
that gets moving. China was strong, in fact very strong. Overnight.
Ali Baba broke above a little range FUTU I think
hit new highs, ty new highs. My worst screen bounced,
some of the worst stocks in the market bounced. Why
(15:49):
markets going elsewhere? How long it lasts, I don't know.
And as I went through what I mentioned, home depot
earnings down three percent, what I mentioned lows earnings down
five percent and revenues down two percent. So this is
interest rate related and a pretty interesting move away from
(16:11):
some things and into other things. And as I mentioned
again the housing related ETFs, the small cap ETFs, which
have underperformed big time, the midcaps had another good day today.
That's MDY you can look at. And just this other
(16:33):
what I call stuff now that didn't mean growth wasn't okay.
The semis are economically sensitive, so you had some good moves,
and there was some news on AMD that had it
up nine bucks. AMD gap down on earnings and right
back up. So the semis were okay today and most
(16:55):
importantly again great advanced the climb. Now, as always, just
a few things I want you to continue to be
careful about. Remember what I told you about the recent
initial public offerings. What do we tell you just so
(17:16):
you know they are opening them up hot and then
they're cramming them, meaning thirty dollars. Stocks are opening up
at one hundred and closing at ninety and a week
later that's fifty. I'm just giving you an example. We
mentioned some of the names, well, they came out with
(17:38):
another one today and we hope you listen. There's a company.
The name of the company is Bullish, just bullsh bu
lli sh. It's out of the Cayman Islands. It's in
Cayman Islands based digital asset platform that provides for structure
(18:00):
and information services. Another crypto. I went to their website.
I cannot figure out their numbers. Normally you go to
one of these websites and you get numbers. I go
to Investors' relations I'm looking for numbers. Well, it says
(18:23):
published in the Initial public Offering Files registration three weeks ago.
I'm looking for numbers. I don't see any numbers. But
it's crypto in this and crypto in that. Usually I
get a ten K, ten Q and all that crap.
I don't see it Ooh, sec filings. I got an
(18:47):
S eight. Now all I see is securities registrations, so
I can't tell you if they have earnings or sales,
what have you. That is not a commentary on the company.
I am going to talk about this stock thirty seven
dollars deal within a minute of the opening, it was
(19:12):
one hundred and eighteen dollars. But that'd be nice if
you had the thirty seven dollars stock opened it one
hundred and eighteen dollars closed at sixty eight. Anybody who
bought today lost their money. And as I see it,
(19:35):
it closed on the lows. That is correct. So our
warning shot still in place. And I will check these
companies out, especially this. I want to know, do they
have numbers, do they have sales, do they have earnings?
(19:56):
What's the deal? Because we owe always worry about stuff
that comes public that may or may not be less
than stellar. And again this is not a comment. I
don't have facts just yet. What I do know is
as a stock again, as a stock again, a hot
(20:21):
open gets yunked. Huh. What's funny is I see audited
financial statements and I try to click on them and
it does not let me in the last one show
in twenty twenty three. Hm, I'm still looking I'm Gary.
(20:44):
This is the one only investor's edge.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
You are listening to. America is talking of investors edge.
Speaker 3 (21:16):
He's gotta be the crowd is just on his feet here.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Boy with Gary called Bob come highly recommended. You're gonna
feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Yeah. So I got some financials and I'm reading Digital Asset.
I don't know if that's a sail or not.
Speaker 3 (21:44):
You know what.
Speaker 2 (21:45):
We're gonna wait till I get more info before I
yap away on this. But the most important thing is
be careful about hot opens and I p o s
right now.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
It's not the first, it's not the last, and we
don't want you to lose your RS. This was yapped
about when it opened. Today one eighteen closed its sixty eight.
One eighteen to sixty eight. That's fifty bucks on one eighteen.
I'm gonna call it forty five percent, give or take
(22:20):
a couple percent. Catch a drift main points again. Big
move the last two days into small caps from large.
I know that Dow's up, but that's the big move
(22:42):
into other stuff down and outs and even United Health,
which if you have been a shareholder, I'm happy for you.
And in case you don't know, United Health this week
is up time six about one hundred and fifty doll
(23:03):
points itself, and it's Wednesday. Other managed care stocks abounds,
and keep in mind it's still down about fifty five
percent from April, which is quite the humbling. May I
state for the record. Anything else that sticks out, I
think I explained it pretty darn good. Again when these
(23:27):
moves start to happen. When they happen, we just don't
know how long, if they're gonna last or not. We
told you that the small caps got going a couple
of times last year and just got kicked in the teeth.
Got kicked in the teeth. I'm being asked a lot
about ethereum, just letting you know they're playing cash up
to bitcoin just and I do believe the bitcoin, at
(23:49):
least the ETFs. Let me see if they finished at
the highs today. Yes, the ib it finished at the
high and the g yeah, finished right at the highs.
So new highs on the bitcoin, the crypto. But they
(24:10):
tell us there's no bubbles. Okay, we'll see how it
plays out. Just remember crypto drops seventy five percent in
the last bear market, but leave no doubt when you
have a finite amount of whatever it is, and now
you're getting the administration and his family neck deep in it,
and you have a guy at micro Strategy borrowing money
(24:32):
and issuing stock to buy more, which, by the way,
that's a lagging stock. It's new highs today on the crypto,
and that's that. Interest rates came down today, that's good news.
(24:53):
Oil prices came down. Mortgage rates tickening a little bit down.
A lot of people are talking about and I think
some people are missing the point of what happened. Let
me explain to you again. The President is ripping Jpale
for not lowering rates right now, but Jaypowell really hasn't
done anything wrong right there. He could be a quarter
(25:14):
or a half point. The President, as usual as loves finding
an enemy and putting him front and center, just like
he did with that woman at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
She's probably got death threats because he said she cheated
and rigged it, which pisses me off. But we move
on j Powell where he screwed up big time. Just
(25:35):
remember what happened with housing. He took rates to zero,
you got three percent mortgages, you got to refinance down
to three percent in under people buying homes three percent
and under What did that do? It unleashed the price
of housing. So housing went kind of vertical for a
(25:56):
couple of years during COVID and after COVID vertical, which
ended up with fantasy land prices and at the same
time fantasy Land prices. Who the hell wants to sell?
Why would I sell a home that I have a
three percent mortgage? Oh, by the way, it's now seven.
So a lot of that went on. But now people
(26:17):
wanting to sell, but they're putting them up at fantasy
land prices. So what's happening right now? Especially where I'm
looking at a lot of places, everything is a lowered price.
Prices are coming down, days for sale are going up.
(26:38):
Where it lands, I have no clue how it lands.
I have no clue. I am just telling you I
still see people trying to sell homes fifty to one
hundred percent higher than two years ago. Good luck. I've
seen some homes sold, I've seen it, but for the
(27:02):
most part, sing a lot not. And I'm also seeing
a lot of homes now starting to come off for
sale because they weren't getting the price so we'll keep
you informed. We keep hearing all this talk affordability, which
Jay Powell's fault. What did I tell you what happens
when you rig markets, you end up with lots of distortions.
(27:25):
When all's said and done, we have a distortion in
the home market. I feel bad for people wanting starter
homes right now. You're paying up if you're buying, and
your mortgage rates are up a lot higher than they
were because of j Powell. If he would have left
well enough alone, affordability would be much better. Now. Do
(27:47):
I think it can turn into an eight? I'm not there,
and we've told you that I'm not there. My guess
is no, but we'll keep advising. Is more cards come
out of the deck? I got asked about core Weave.
This is one of those hot IPOs that did have
a good run. Was down thirty one bucks today, down
(28:11):
twenty one percent on their earnings report. Well, first off,
it rallied up beforehand. But just another company that loses
money with strong revenue growth. By the way, cloud platform
for accelerating general whatever AI. Just let you know. I
(28:33):
got asked by on CrCL. Also, this Circle Internet loses
even more money that was down ten today. Well, they
did a secondary, or they're doing a secondary that's putting
more shares on the market, a big selling shareholder cashing out.
We'll let you know if we start to see a
lot of secondaries. You don't want to see a lot
(28:56):
because that's more stock being put on the market. We
shall see. But my big point on the IPOs again,
be careful of the hot stuff. And by the way,
I haven't mentioned a bunch I didn't mention fig They
had it up the second day at one hundred and
(29:17):
forty five bucks. Eight days later it's eighty one. That's
over forty percent too. So just watch your p's and
q's if you buy into Frenzy. How about et O
r caame public, had it eighty bucks in June, it's
(29:43):
forty eight today. Want me to do more. I'm just
going through a couple as I speak. M NTN that's
not called Mountain, it's just m NTN transform Connected TV
into next generation performance. Small company loses a bunch of money.
(30:04):
That was thirty two bucks four days ago, it's twenty
three today as they announced another big loss thirty two
to twenty three. What is it about? Twenty eight percent? Right,
see where we're going with this SLDE They had it
at twenty six bucks in June fifteen. Today, and again
(30:29):
we are not ribbing the companies. We are talking about
what's happening in the stock market. When they're putting out
some hot IPOs, you are getting kicked in the teeth
if you buy into the frenzy. How about why White
Fiber just came public four days ago? Right, it'll hire
a twenty five at seventeen. Yeah, we know what we're uh. Remember,
(30:57):
everything we do, everything comes out of what the market's saying.
And again the market today said something about coming out
of some of the megacaps, and boy oh boy, two
days in a row of small caps and the housing
and housing related and the stuff and strong advanced declines
(31:26):
and all that. Hey, lastly's Cisco Systems reported in the
aftermarket was one of the greatest stocks of the nineties. Umm,
it's been acting very well. By the way, closed at
seventy forty. I got it at sixty eight eighty up
down a buck sixty? What be do hey up next?
(31:47):
News of today? Whatever else? This is the one only
investor's edge.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
You're listening to. What are you waiting for? One ready.
We can't recalled pot.
Speaker 2 (32:38):
All right, hey, just every now and then we get
facts and figures. It's it's not hard to figure out, uh,
whether something's expensive or not, you know. So we got
another one today, just letting you know, the history of
(32:58):
financial markets has never seen this before. The S and
P five hundred technology sector price. The sales ratio is
now ten times the highest ever. Even at the two
thousand dot com bubble peak, the ratio is only seven
point eight times. Just let you know something to have
(33:22):
in the file manager. We just wanted to let you know. Also,
you know they have you know who Shiller is, right,
the Shiller pe, forward pe and all that stuff. Book
value thing is back at a year two thousand high.
(33:44):
Just letting you know. We also want to let you know,
you know what a leveraged ETF is, right, exchange trade
and fun where you can do doubles and triples, you
know that, right, you can do triple less and P
double s and P and either way. I don't think
they've kept their end of the bargain. Just so you
know what I mean by that is, well, they're telling
(34:06):
you it's supposed to move two FORO one or three
for one, and very often it doesn't. But I digress
Leveraged Equity ETF. The assets has climbed to one hundred
and nineteen billion at the end of July, the highest
on record Morning Star records going back to nineteen ninety three. Meanwhile,
(34:34):
that's betting on the upside. Meanwhile, inverse ETF's betting on
the downside drop from a twenty two billion dollar peak
in twenty two down to twelve point five billion. So
big bets on the upside and bets on the downside.
Not many the s and P five hundred's priced the
(34:59):
peak earnings. This ratio has moved up to twenty six
point seven, its highest level since two thousand and over
fifty five percent above its historic median, the average. So
we're just letting you know. Valuations trees. I've seen them
(35:22):
go higher. I remember in ninety eight valuations were in
the trees and ninety nine to the upside until we
topped in March of two thousand and we're not saying
this to scare you. We're saying it to give you facts.
The market's acting fine. It's now broadening out, selling off
(35:45):
some other things though, but broadening out. But this has
come upon my little desk and we thought you should know.
But I'm not done. The Nasdaq market cap relative to
US GDP hit one hundred and five percent and all
(36:07):
time high. It is nearly doubled since the twenty two
bear market low and now is forty percentage points above
the dot com bubble. It's also a record relative to
the world GDP. Have I depressed the hell out of you?
Speaker 3 (36:28):
Yet?
Speaker 2 (36:30):
We just like state in fact, kids, that's all, that's
all we're interested in doing, and we do it for us,
and we do it for you, and we will stay
vigilant at all times because combine what I just told
you with the froth and speculation and some weird stuff.
(36:53):
I'm seeing fifteen billion dollar market caps on no sales companies. Bill. Yeah,
and that's a little bit of everything else I'd love
(37:13):
to do in the news, but there's so many things
that are so weird out there. I'm gonna leave that
alone for me. From all of you. Really appreciate the
kind words and the emails. I can tell you the
(37:35):
emotions I have gone through are new. Last year Thanksgiving,
my mom passed so appreciative ninety one. My father's ninety
three still kicking though. Just heard from my brother during
the break. But I have to tell you all of
you that have emailed have helped me out because we
(37:59):
all go through life and experience new things, good, bad,
and different life death. I just kind of new grandson
a year ago. It's just you know where I'm coming from, right,
(38:20):
And of course as you get older it gets tougher.
But I'm appreciative you all be pretty darn cool. I
can promise you that going forward we're determined. Well hopefully
my father lives to one five. Just letting you know,
(38:41):
we're going to continue to work our butt off. We'll
continue when wrong, be wrong, fast be wrong, small when right,
try to let them run. Try to have a good
eye on everything, without any agenda, ulterior motive or bias.
Take on all comers. As you know, we hit them hard,
doesn't matter whether they're Republican or Democrat.
Speaker 3 (39:04):
Oh.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
By the way, July's deficit was two hundred and ninety
one billion. They were telling us how great things were
because the month before there was a surplus, but I
didn't hear them talking. Those same people were not out
today talking about two hundred and ninety one billion deficit
for the month of July. I want you to all
remember that the people that are in the tank don't
(39:29):
care about you. They care about protecting their side, such
as life. We're through a lot of earning season. It's
quite gonna quiet down. We keep being told that August
(39:49):
and September are bad, but maybe bad for some areas
right now, but the broad market coming on if anything changes,
will let you know. You all have a great evening.
Drive carefully when you get home, do like I do well.
As soon as I get up to the northeast, I'll
(40:10):
be given the data. Big hug and my brother who's
been doing a yeomen's job, make sure you hug your
children also have a good evening. Everybody really appreciate you.
Good night.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbom on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!