Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kolbomb,
your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad
you're here, ladies and gentlemen, Happy that you are listening.
It's August first, twenty twenty five. Hope you have it
a good day. Hope you can have a good weekend.
As always, we have a lot to cover, serious talk
on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy,
(00:35):
your job, your industry, tariffs, the job market, and some
weird stuff going on today, Ladies and gentlemen. I'll get
to it all, but first, if you do not get
this radio show in your city, we'll post it at
garrettk dot com. We'll also post it on our x feed,
and if you don't follow us an X, just put
(00:56):
our name in and you will see it. You can
follow us on the YouTube biz tv channel also, and
if you'd like to email me, just be nice. I
have a ton of cover. But, ladies and gentlemen, the
Dow is down five hundred and forty two. What's down
(01:20):
seven hundred, the S and P down one hundred and one,
NASDAK four seventy two, NASDAQ one hundred and four to
fifty four advanced. The clients were miserable, small caps, mid caps,
you name it, they got it. Transports another three forty two.
(01:43):
Let's go through it just three days ago. And we're
never that sure, but we said to you, hey, just
(02:03):
letting you know, the transports are breaking down pretty badly.
And when I do my webcasts, I am now able
to show a lot more things breaking down and a
lot more stocks being lost from the uptrends into tops
(02:24):
of unknown price and time, and that the broad market
was getting a little bit of headwinds. The down down
five point forty two, the S and P down one
oh one, NASDAK four seventy two, NASDAK one hundred and
four fifty four. We're going to get into what I
(02:50):
think's going on. But for some facts, the job market
numbers came in not good, the revisions not good. There
is no doubt in my mind the economy is softening
(03:13):
to a bad place. I don't know, but it's softening.
These are some numbers on jobs. But we also told
you that some of our sampling are little silly, stupid
(03:39):
sampling has been softer. We also told you that on
our radio show. We email people to email us back
and tell us what's happening in your city, your area,
your restaurants, what you see in airports, and what about
your industry, your jobs. And I have been getting a
(04:03):
lot of feedback of softness, a softer economy. But to
what extent, again, we just don't know. But I'm worried.
(04:28):
I'm very worried. As you know, I have been very
unbiased on who's running the country. We have profusely complimented
them on things. But I'm worried about going off the rails.
(04:52):
What do I mean? First off, the tariffs. Remember the
fact the President of the United States, Donald Trump, caused
a bearish market and a crash in the stock market
with ridiculous amounts and high numbers of tariffs across the world.
(05:19):
It was obviously not thought out to where they were
putting like one hundred percent tariffs on a Vietnam who
makes ninety eight percent of our shoes and sneakers. So
the shoes and sneaker companies were dropping fifty percent in
two days. Well over that weekend. They changed their mind.
(05:43):
But they were forced to change their mind because the
crashing markets and an economy where that was going to
get in big trouble very quickly. How do we know,
we asked. We saw commerce was stopping and it would
(06:04):
continue to stop because who to hell has any ability
to buy products and pay one hundred percent? So they paused,
they gave exemptions up the wazoo, But in recent times
they're picking it up again. And I think the problem
(06:29):
is Ego. I think he's watched the market's gone higher
and thinks he can do no wrong. But now he
goes fifty percent on Brazil with some exemptions, not because
of trade, but because he's man. How we treat the
ex president Canada thirty five percent copper? This week copper
(06:50):
prices crashed. Try planting your business if you buy a
ton of stuff with copper. So the job's numbers come out,
and you know, I've complained about the job's numbers in
the past, about how small the sampling is, but last
(07:12):
month was a very big number. This month wasn't let
me read something from you to you from the president.
I was just informed that our country's jobs numbers are
being produced by a Biden appoint d doctor Erica mcintarfer,
the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the job numbers
(07:36):
before the election to try and bruce combliss chances of victory.
This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated
the job's growth in March twenty four by eight hundred
and eighteen thousand, and then again right before the election
in August and September by one hundred twenty thousand. These
were records. No one can be that wrong. We need
(07:58):
accurate jobs numbers. I have directed my team to fire
this Biden political appointee immediately. She will be replaced with
someone much more competent and qualifying. Important numbers like this
must be fair and accurate. They can't be manipulated for
political purposes. Mick and Tarfa said there were only seventy
three thousand jobs, added a shock, but more importantly that
(08:21):
a major mistake was made by a revision of two
hundred and fifty eight thousand downward in the prior two months.
The economy is booming under Trump, and he's talking about
himself in the third person, despite a FED that also
plays games, this time with interest rates where they lowered
them twice and substantially he's firing the woman who is
(08:45):
part of producing the job's numbers. This is ill. This
is the worst part of Donald Trump. It's the worst
part of him. He's causing the economy to slow because
(09:08):
of his tariffs, and not just tariffs. Every day changing,
I get these screens that have tariffs, and the movement
in days it's like a lit pinball machine. And now this,
But I'm not done. Apple announces they paid eight hundred
(09:35):
million in tariffs last quarter and it'll be one point
one billion this quarter. But I thought our companies don't
pay the tariffs. Oh well, we already know the president
light about that. But I want you to think about this.
(09:55):
You have a Republican, supposedly conservatives that hate hire taxes,
but now we're praising the fact they're bringing in twenty
billion a month in taxes from our companies. That is
going to be passed on to the consumer, and there
already is. So I'm letting you know you're handsome and
(10:19):
buffed host for starters. It looks like we have a
near term top and place in the market. We saw
the inkling of it in the earth days past. Today
was the confirmation we believe. Up next, we'll continue along
this line. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Hi.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge.
We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money
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Speaker 5 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
You're listening to Okay, it could be Firm Investors Edge.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
The last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
With Gary called Bomb.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
It doesn't get better than this. So this is the
worst part of the president. He's the opposite of what
(12:40):
we tell you a president should do well half of
the opposite. What if we told you lower taxes, check minus,
less regulations. Check that's wrong on crime, Check back Israel
(13:09):
and Jews that are being threatened on college campuses. Check why?
Check minus on taxes. He's raising taxes. And when they
tell you twenty eight billion last month that came out
of our asses, this country proven. So I'm worried. They've
(13:38):
also said they expect seven trillion to be raised in
tariffs in ten years. You're telling me we're gonna have
seven trillion in higher taxes. We should have just hired
Kamala Harris. That's what she wanted to do, just not
through tarifs. So let me just state, I don't know
(14:03):
how this is going to end up because I don't
know what the President's going to do next. I don't
know what the outcome is going to be. Because I
don't know what the President's going to say next. I
don't know where it's going to go. Because they did
Liberation Day, they crashed the market into the weekend, and
on Monday they paused, though they did it on Wednesday
(14:24):
because it was leaked on the Monday. So anything's possible.
But he seems he's putting his feet down. We'll see.
But back on the market rough day, the major indices
(14:49):
that had been just sweetly running up the twenty one
day moving average crashed through them today, which, by the way,
we knew was going to eventually happen, but it was icky.
Do I think there's more? Guess? Yes, yes, how much more?
(15:12):
You know the line? I don't know. What do we do?
Take it day by day? When I do my scans
this weekend, I've already started, I am going to look
to see how many stocks were lost. What do I
mean by lost? The belief that they have totally totally
(15:35):
topped and they are no longer a tailwind for the market,
not necessarily a headwind, but potentially a headwind. And we'll
let more cards come out of the deck and we'll
(15:56):
keep you in touch. But looks to me a classic
near turn top in the market. It's not only here
but around the globe. I'm noticing the German dacks that
broke the fifty day move and average four days ago
(16:20):
falling even more as I go through other indices across
the globe tops in place of unknown price, unknown time,
and what we do again, and we will babysit it
and let more cards come out. The big worry is
(16:43):
he puts his feet down. I do not believe. Listen
carefully where these tariffs are right now, not sure the
economy can stand. And I know there's a lot of
people saying, well, we can get rid of it, but
he's going to stay at ten to fifteen percent tariffs,
(17:07):
and that's cool. I don't think it's cool. Yeah, I
think they can be negotiated. I've told you that. Yeah,
I think they can be cheated on. I told you that, Yeah,
they can be worked out. I told you that. But
by who Walmart can? I'm not sure sure Aunt Mary
and Uncle Bob can. And then there's this. I want
(17:29):
you to listen to me carefully. Let me explain a tariff.
A company here imports a snow globe, you know, a
snow globe. They pay ten dollars for it at just
(17:52):
fifteen percent. They now pay eleven and a half dollars
for it. They charge you fifteen instead of making five dollars.
They only make three and a half dollars. But that's
not the whole story, because there's a cost that five
(18:15):
dollars includes. Maybe they have stores, rent electricity, delivery charges,
trucks and gas employees. Remember those you pay them. This
(18:35):
is what is known as margin squeeze in corporate America.
And what if I told you about stock markets. They
love expanding margins, they don't love contracting margins. Tariffs potentially
(18:56):
contract margins. And he's put thirty five percent on Canada,
fifty percent on Brazil, twenty five here, thirty here, twenty there, fifteen,
they're ten there. My head is on a swivel because
it's changing every day. And you think it's no big
(19:21):
deal because you have not seen it yet. But I
can promise you you will eventually see it. You'll go
into restaurants and there'll be a tariff tax. You think
I'm kidding, So I'm less than thrilled. I'm rooting from.
(19:47):
We don't take any joy I'm rooting from. But this
is Banana Republic. Like firing a stats chief on the
jobs report last month had a big job's number. He
was happy. This one's bad. This is Banana Republic like
(20:14):
this has gotta stop. It's got to stop. It's got
to stop. We'll keep you up to date on it.
We wish we had better things to say. What else
(20:35):
happened today gold? We'll get to that in a second.
What went up today?
Speaker 3 (20:41):
I'm Gary, this is the one on the investor's edge.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
You're listening to.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
America is talking investor's edge. He's gotta be with the crowd,
is just on his feet.
Speaker 5 (21:19):
Here a boy with Gary called Bob comes highly recommended.
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 6 (21:37):
And once against investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
And for all you people love Trump, that's about to
email me. We do not have Trump the arrangement syndrome.
We compliment them more than we cast the gate. We
call balls and Ike's kids. And I will promise you
(22:05):
if he continues along this route, it may affect your
job and your money. You got that gold was up today.
Why would gold be up today? Well, the dollar was
overbought after the recent move. But the dollar got hit
(22:26):
hard today on the weakening outlook and the thought process
that the Fed is definitely going to lower rates now,
the ten year yields plunged a whopping one point four
today down to four point to two percent, which means
it went from four point three six to four point
(22:47):
twenty two in one day. That is a huge drop.
And what is a plunging yield? Help home builders which
had got hit recently and bounced today? Home builders? What
(23:09):
else bounced today? Drugs? Why would drugs be up today? Well,
you're probably taking a little more xanax, but no, really
the defensive Kimberly Clark was up today, Pepsi was up today,
Coke was up today. Johnson and Johnson was up today.
(23:32):
Defensive issues because when the market gets a little defensive,
it buys up the defensive. What else are we seeing now?
And you're welcome. We warned you that all the bull crap,
(23:56):
no sales stuff. We don't know how far, how long,
or when, but they will all eventually go back to
where they came from. A bunch of them are getting
blasted now, absolutely blasted. What else? And I think this
(24:21):
is of import We have been harping avoid United Health,
avoid Managed Care, slash HMO stocks though you man have
had a nice move on earnings this week, still way
(24:43):
way down. United Health dropped another fifteen percent this week,
forty three dollars. And amazingly, this stock was six hundred
and six dollars on April eleven. It's two hundred and
thirty seven today. This had been a stalwart in the markets,
(25:09):
a stallwart. But back to the margins. What has come out?
What is is that they, very much more than everybody else,
were denying claims that others wouldn't deny. Amongst other things,
(25:30):
they got the Justice Department with a criminal investigation on
them because of all this. If they're going to make amends,
what are they going to have to do? It's called
margin contraction. What do we tell you happens to stocks
(25:51):
when margins contract? One plus one equals too. And if
it's happening to United Health, well, guess what. Senteen was
fifty seven bucks before earnings in July. It's twenty five
(26:12):
ninety one today, more than fifty percent down. I mean,
by the way, you may not know this, These are
some holy crap moments. SIGNA three thirty eight five weeks
ago to sixty two today. Elevants ELV was five sixty
(26:43):
seven ten months ago. It's two seventy four today. There's
a fifty percent drops. This ain't no hill for a climber.
This ain't aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling its margin
contraction of an industry. And of course, in sympathy, other
insurance stocks are not having a great go of it
(27:05):
right now. We have told you to avoid the whole
insurance complex from a flack down Ta Voya, and they've
been under pressure. And we'll keep coming at you because
we told you recently the auto dealers. We just recently
(27:28):
told you the transports, and by the way, let's see,
I think just this week, if I am correct, this
is not coming up correct. Well, let's just say the
transport started the week at sixteen three six', four it
(27:52):
closed a week at fifteen one oh. Four, YEAH i got.
It seven point seven percent drop in the companies that
move everything QUITE mooi. Importante so just letting you know
(28:15):
on today's, drop we're already gauging what ain't. Dropping but
they pretty much got a lot of things, today, THOUGH
i must tell you modest losses in some of those
energy names LIKE GeV AND vst, modest quite, modest and
(28:40):
some other. Ones i'm going to be looking at what
was interesting to me Today. Microsoft remember they gapped it up,
yesterday and we warned gapped it up at five point fifty.
Five it's back to five twenty four already and a
beautiful gap in meta. Yesterday that's not going to hold
(29:01):
in this. Market drop twenty three bucks. Today we'll keep
a close eye on. It why we love companies that
gap to the. Upside they came off to banks today
And advance declins eleven, up thirty two down on The,
nasdaq thirteen, up twenty nine down on The New. York
(29:24):
you ready for, this more new yearly lows on The
New york than new yearly highs and on The nasdaq
five times as, many ladies and. Gentlemen there's some holy crap.
Statistics we'll head into next week and we'll see what's
(29:49):
next out of the, president because as we have told,
you it's too. Much it's too much of. Him and
MAY i state for the record a little bit of.
Crazy you're firing somebody who puts out statistics on jobs
(30:10):
and call them liars and cheaters the month after they
put out a number of two hundred and fifty thousand
that you. Praised you know what that does to someone's
credibility you know what it does to somebody's. Credibility i'll
(30:34):
leave it at. That we wish him, well we're rooting for,
him but it's getting silly And i'm. Worried and now
the job, market and now the job, market and MAY
(31:02):
i repeat? That and now the job market. Again we'll
keep you on top of it without, agenda ulterior motive or.
Bias you know where we. Stand we stand on your. Side,
(31:29):
personally we couldn't give a crap about any of. Them,
professionally we must watch them. Closely up next list that
and the other thing or whatever?
Speaker 6 (31:41):
Else is the one Only Investor's edge.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
You're listening.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
To what are you waiting for one to ready? Go?
Speaker 1 (32:22):
Inquests we can't Recalled, Bob.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
Welcome once again to Investor. Edge SO i Mentioned apple
and their, tariffs but they also reported earnings and earnings
were accelerating a little, bit and the stock was up
four bucks early finished down five. Bucks do you know?
(33:19):
WHY i think we'll hear a little bit more of.
This Tim cooks came out and said that the numbers
were skewed and front loaded because everybody was worried about the,
tariffs so they bought. First but now things are slowing.
(33:42):
Again apple stock has been on a versus basis, terrible
and we have been telling you to avoid. It topped
out of two. Sixty it's getting near two hundred and
(34:11):
little other worry About. Apple the next big thing we're
being told is a flip. Phone, really didn't the flip
phone go the way of The dodo? Burn And i'm,
Hearing i'm hearing it's going to cost two thousand. Bucks,
(34:35):
really we'll see how it. Goes That's apple. Again people
were worried about, tariffs that they would have to pay
a bunch higher on the. iPhone so by now before the,
(34:55):
tariffs and there's the worry about the. Economy last QUARTERS
gdp was. Three but how much was that front? Loaded my,
ANSWER i don't, know but based on What apple is,
saying it doesn't take a reach to be thinking that
(35:31):
everything was good before and now that buying power gone.
AGAIN i don't, know but we do know What apple
said things to ponder ladies and. GENTLEMEN i WISH i
(35:52):
had The president's. EAR i know he wouldn't listen even
IF i, did BUT i can help the man out
if he was to, listen big. TIME i am a
lot smarter than, him a lot smarter than him on the.
(36:15):
TARIFFS i would be able to set him straight on the,
tariffs but he wouldn't. Listen and anybody who does disagree
(36:38):
with hum gets pounded into. Oblivion what? Else kamala was
on The Colbert show last, Night and let me just tell,
YOU i had a four pm flight up to The northeast.
YESTERDAY i originally had a seven pm BUT i knew
there was, weather SO i took the four pm AND
(36:59):
i ended up my flight left at about ten forty five,
pm so six hours and forty five minute. Delay and
on the, AIRPLANE i Watched commala as unthrilled AS i
am With President. Trump this woman's a. Nightmare what a, Lightweight.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
What a?
Speaker 2 (37:29):
Lightweight And colbert is just pure, nausea pure Nause you
might as well give her a. BackRub but she's a, lightweight,
uninspiring can't put sentences. Together simple questions to answer about
(37:58):
who's leading The Democratic party that she can't. Answer dodge
the bullet if you ask, me especially on the, border
Which trump gets a plus plus plus plus plus plus
plus plus plus and she got AN f minus minus
(38:21):
minus minus minus. Minus but, ANYWAY i watched that AND
i was, Like i'm sitting on the, Plane i'm, like,
huh couldn't believe. It but back on the, president he
should be listening to me on the. Tariffs he should
be listening to. Me they're causing a little, turmoil and
(38:44):
then they can cause a lot more if he doesn't
take down these. Tariffs and if he thinks the economy
is thrilled with fifteen, percent an economy that's used to.
Not we'll Say i'm in hopes if in a year
from now he takes in twenty billion a month and
pays down the debt and we got three percent, growth
(39:07):
he'll get then he'll get the, handshake the, hug and the.
Applause i'm not so. Sure in other, news IT'S nfl,
Season ladies And Gentlemen hall Of fame game, yesterday AND
i had no Idea Antonio gates was not in The
(39:28):
hall Of, fame one of the greatest tight. Ends what
do they wait? For you, know These hall Of, fames
they wait for people that die before they put them,
in which really pisses me. Off, anyway it's football. Season
i'm not hopeful on The. GIANTS i think they're gonna
have a great. Defense i'm not so sure about the.
OFFENSE i gotta tell, you if they get six, Wins
(39:50):
i'd be. Happy anything above, that, boy oh, Boy i'd be.
Thrilled buffalo looks pretty. Good ask. Me we'll follow it.
Closely And i'm back In Fantasy league this. Year ladies and,
gentlemen that all, said you have a great. Weekend drive
carefully when you get. Home do LIKE i. Do quite.
(40:12):
Simple make sure you hug your. Family make sure you
hug your. Children they wi feel. Better you will feel,
BETTER i, promise stay, well be, Well thanks for, joining,
goodnight all bye.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Bye this has Been Investor's edge With Gary cultbom on Biz.
Talk to listen to past episodes or to get in
contact With, gary go To garykay dot. Com That's garykay dot.
Com
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
And welcome once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary Kolbomb,
your host day. Thanks of being with us today. Glad
you're here, ladies and gentlemen, Happy that you are listening.
It's August first, twenty twenty five. Hope you have it
a good day. Hope you can have a good weekend.
As always, we have a lot to cover, serious talk
on everything that affects you. We'll do the markets, the economy,
(00:35):
your job, your industry, tariffs, the job market, and some
weird stuff going on today, Ladies and gentlemen. I'll get
to it all, but first, if you do not get
this radio show in your city, we'll post it at
garrettk dot com. We'll also post it on our x feed,
and if you don't follow us an X, just put
(00:56):
our name in and you will see it. You can
follow us on the YouTube biz tv channel also, and
if you'd like to email me, just be nice. I
have a ton of cover. But, ladies and gentlemen, the
Dow is down five hundred and forty two. What's down
(01:20):
seven hundred, the S and P down one hundred and one,
NASDAK four seventy two, NASDAQ one hundred and four to
fifty four advanced. The clients were miserable, small caps, mid caps,
you name it, they got it. Transports another three forty two.
(01:43):
Let's go through it just three days ago. And we're
never that sure, but we said to you, hey, just
(02:03):
letting you know, the transports are breaking down pretty badly.
And when I do my webcasts, I am now able
to show a lot more things breaking down and a
lot more stocks being lost from the uptrends into tops
(02:24):
of unknown price and time, and that the broad market
was getting a little bit of headwinds. The down down
five point forty two, the S and P down one
oh one, NASDAK four seventy two, NASDAK one hundred and
four fifty four. We're going to get into what I
(02:50):
think's going on. But for some facts, the job market
numbers came in not good, the revisions not good. There
is no doubt in my mind the economy is softening
(03:13):
to a bad place. I don't know, but it's softening.
These are some numbers on jobs. But we also told
you that some of our sampling are little silly, stupid
(03:39):
sampling has been softer. We also told you that on
our radio show. We email people to email us back
and tell us what's happening in your city, your area,
your restaurants, what you see in airports, and what about
your industry, your jobs. And I have been getting a
(04:03):
lot of feedback of softness, a softer economy. But to
what extent, again, we just don't know. But I'm worried.
(04:28):
I'm very worried. As you know, I have been very
unbiased on who's running the country. We have profusely complimented
them on things. But I'm worried about going off the rails.
(04:52):
What do I mean? First off, the tariffs. Remember the
fact the President of the United States, Donald Trump, caused
a bearish market and a crash in the stock market
with ridiculous amounts and high numbers of tariffs across the world.
(05:19):
It was obviously not thought out to where they were
putting like one hundred percent tariffs on a Vietnam who
makes ninety eight percent of our shoes and sneakers. So
the shoes and sneaker companies were dropping fifty percent in
two days. Well over that weekend. They changed their mind.
(05:43):
But they were forced to change their mind because the
crashing markets and an economy where that was going to
get in big trouble very quickly. How do we know,
we asked. We saw commerce was stopping and it would
(06:04):
continue to stop because who to hell has any ability
to buy products and pay one hundred percent? So they paused,
they gave exemptions up the wazoo, But in recent times
they're picking it up again. And I think the problem
(06:29):
is Ego. I think he's watched the market's gone higher
and thinks he can do no wrong. But now he
goes fifty percent on Brazil with some exemptions, not because
of trade, but because he's man. How we treat the
ex president Canada thirty five percent copper? This week copper
(06:50):
prices crashed. Try planting your business if you buy a
ton of stuff with copper. So the job's numbers come out,
and you know, I've complained about the job's numbers in
the past, about how small the sampling is, but last
(07:12):
month was a very big number. This month wasn't let
me read something from you to you from the president.
I was just informed that our country's jobs numbers are
being produced by a Biden appoint d doctor Erica mcintarfer,
the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the job numbers
(07:36):
before the election to try and bruce combliss chances of victory.
This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated
the job's growth in March twenty four by eight hundred
and eighteen thousand, and then again right before the election
in August and September by one hundred twenty thousand. These
were records. No one can be that wrong. We need
(07:58):
accurate jobs numbers. I have directed my team to fire
this Biden political appointee immediately. She will be replaced with
someone much more competent and qualifying. Important numbers like this
must be fair and accurate. They can't be manipulated for
political purposes. Mick and Tarfa said there were only seventy
three thousand jobs, added a shock, but more importantly that
(08:21):
a major mistake was made by a revision of two
hundred and fifty eight thousand downward in the prior two months.
The economy is booming under Trump, and he's talking about
himself in the third person, despite a FED that also
plays games, this time with interest rates where they lowered
them twice and substantially he's firing the woman who is
(08:45):
part of producing the job's numbers. This is ill. This
is the worst part of Donald Trump. It's the worst
part of him. He's causing the economy to slow because
(09:08):
of his tariffs, and not just tariffs. Every day changing,
I get these screens that have tariffs, and the movement
in days it's like a lit pinball machine. And now this,
But I'm not done. Apple announces they paid eight hundred
(09:35):
million in tariffs last quarter and it'll be one point
one billion this quarter. But I thought our companies don't
pay the tariffs. Oh well, we already know the president
light about that. But I want you to think about this.
(09:55):
You have a Republican, supposedly conservatives that hate hire taxes,
but now we're praising the fact they're bringing in twenty
billion a month in taxes from our companies. That is
going to be passed on to the consumer, and there
already is. So I'm letting you know you're handsome and
(10:19):
buffed host for starters. It looks like we have a
near term top and place in the market. We saw
the inkling of it in the earth days past. Today
was the confirmation we believe. Up next, we'll continue along
this line. This is the one only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Hi.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge.
We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money
for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary money management.
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We also provide a full range of personalized services, including
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(11:25):
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That's eight eight eight four two two five to five,
five to nine. Investment advisory services offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 5 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
You're listening to Okay, it could be Firm Investors Edge.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
The last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
With Gary called Bomb.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
It doesn't get better than this. So this is the
worst part of the president. He's the opposite of what
(12:40):
we tell you a president should do well half of
the opposite. What if we told you lower taxes, check minus,
less regulations. Check that's wrong on crime, Check back Israel
(13:09):
and Jews that are being threatened on college campuses. Check why?
Check minus on taxes. He's raising taxes. And when they
tell you twenty eight billion last month that came out
of our asses, this country proven. So I'm worried. They've
(13:38):
also said they expect seven trillion to be raised in
tariffs in ten years. You're telling me we're gonna have
seven trillion in higher taxes. We should have just hired
Kamala Harris. That's what she wanted to do, just not
through tarifs. So let me just state, I don't know
(14:03):
how this is going to end up because I don't
know what the President's going to do next. I don't
know what the outcome is going to be. Because I
don't know what the President's going to say next. I
don't know where it's going to go. Because they did
Liberation Day, they crashed the market into the weekend, and
on Monday they paused, though they did it on Wednesday
(14:24):
because it was leaked on the Monday. So anything's possible.
But he seems he's putting his feet down. We'll see.
But back on the market rough day, the major indices
(14:49):
that had been just sweetly running up the twenty one
day moving average crashed through them today, which, by the way,
we knew was going to eventually happen, but it was icky.
Do I think there's more? Guess? Yes, yes, how much more?
(15:12):
You know the line? I don't know. What do we do?
Take it day by day? When I do my scans
this weekend, I've already started, I am going to look
to see how many stocks were lost. What do I
mean by lost? The belief that they have totally totally
(15:35):
topped and they are no longer a tailwind for the market,
not necessarily a headwind, but potentially a headwind. And we'll
let more cards come out of the deck and we'll
(15:56):
keep you in touch. But looks to me a classic
near turn top in the market. It's not only here
but around the globe. I'm noticing the German dacks that
broke the fifty day move and average four days ago
(16:20):
falling even more as I go through other indices across
the globe tops in place of unknown price, unknown time,
and what we do again, and we will babysit it
and let more cards come out. The big worry is
(16:43):
he puts his feet down. I do not believe. Listen
carefully where these tariffs are right now, not sure the
economy can stand. And I know there's a lot of
people saying, well, we can get rid of it, but
he's going to stay at ten to fifteen percent tariffs,
(17:07):
and that's cool. I don't think it's cool. Yeah, I
think they can be negotiated. I've told you that. Yeah,
I think they can be cheated on. I told you that, Yeah,
they can be worked out. I told you that. But
by who Walmart can? I'm not sure sure Aunt Mary
and Uncle Bob can. And then there's this. I want
(17:29):
you to listen to me carefully. Let me explain a tariff.
A company here imports a snow globe, you know, a
snow globe. They pay ten dollars for it at just
(17:52):
fifteen percent. They now pay eleven and a half dollars
for it. They charge you fifteen instead of making five dollars.
They only make three and a half dollars. But that's
not the whole story, because there's a cost that five
(18:15):
dollars includes. Maybe they have stores, rent electricity, delivery charges,
trucks and gas employees. Remember those you pay them. This
(18:35):
is what is known as margin squeeze in corporate America.
And what if I told you about stock markets. They
love expanding margins, they don't love contracting margins. Tariffs potentially
(18:56):
contract margins. And he's put thirty five percent on Canada,
fifty percent on Brazil, twenty five here, thirty here, twenty there, fifteen,
they're ten there. My head is on a swivel because
it's changing every day. And you think it's no big
(19:21):
deal because you have not seen it yet. But I
can promise you you will eventually see it. You'll go
into restaurants and there'll be a tariff tax. You think
I'm kidding, So I'm less than thrilled. I'm rooting from.
(19:47):
We don't take any joy I'm rooting from. But this
is Banana Republic. Like firing a stats chief on the
jobs report last month had a big job's number. He
was happy. This one's bad. This is Banana Republic like
(20:14):
this has gotta stop. It's got to stop. It's got
to stop. We'll keep you up to date on it.
We wish we had better things to say. What else
(20:35):
happened today gold? We'll get to that in a second.
What went up today?
Speaker 3 (20:41):
I'm Gary, this is the one on the investor's edge.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
You're listening to.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
America is talking investor's edge. He's gotta be with the crowd,
is just on his feet.
Speaker 5 (21:19):
Here a boy with Gary called Bob comes highly recommended.
You're gonna feel better if you talk to him.
Speaker 6 (21:37):
And once against investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
And for all you people love Trump, that's about to
email me. We do not have Trump the arrangement syndrome.
We compliment them more than we cast the gate. We
call balls and Ike's kids. And I will promise you
(22:05):
if he continues along this route, it may affect your
job and your money. You got that gold was up today.
Why would gold be up today? Well, the dollar was
overbought after the recent move. But the dollar got hit
(22:26):
hard today on the weakening outlook and the thought process
that the Fed is definitely going to lower rates now,
the ten year yields plunged a whopping one point four
today down to four point to two percent, which means
it went from four point three six to four point
(22:47):
twenty two in one day. That is a huge drop.
And what is a plunging yield? Help home builders which
had got hit recently and bounced today? Home builders? What
(23:09):
else bounced today? Drugs? Why would drugs be up today? Well,
you're probably taking a little more xanax, but no, really
the defensive Kimberly Clark was up today, Pepsi was up today,
Coke was up today. Johnson and Johnson was up today.
(23:32):
Defensive issues because when the market gets a little defensive,
it buys up the defensive. What else are we seeing now?
And you're welcome. We warned you that all the bull crap,
(23:56):
no sales stuff. We don't know how far, how long,
or when, but they will all eventually go back to
where they came from. A bunch of them are getting
blasted now, absolutely blasted. What else? And I think this
(24:21):
is of import We have been harping avoid United Health,
avoid Managed Care, slash HMO stocks though you man have
had a nice move on earnings this week, still way
(24:43):
way down. United Health dropped another fifteen percent this week,
forty three dollars. And amazingly, this stock was six hundred
and six dollars on April eleven. It's two hundred and
thirty seven today. This had been a stalwart in the markets,
(25:09):
a stallwart. But back to the margins. What has come out?
What is is that they, very much more than everybody else,
were denying claims that others wouldn't deny. Amongst other things,
(25:30):
they got the Justice Department with a criminal investigation on
them because of all this. If they're going to make amends,
what are they going to have to do? It's called
margin contraction. What do we tell you happens to stocks
(25:51):
when margins contract? One plus one equals too. And if
it's happening to United Health, well, guess what. Senteen was
fifty seven bucks before earnings in July. It's twenty five
(26:12):
ninety one today, more than fifty percent down. I mean,
by the way, you may not know this, These are
some holy crap moments. SIGNA three thirty eight five weeks
ago to sixty two today. Elevants ELV was five sixty
(26:43):
seven ten months ago. It's two seventy four today. There's
a fifty percent drops. This ain't no hill for a climber.
This ain't aunt Mary and Uncle Bob selling its margin
contraction of an industry. And of course, in sympathy, other
insurance stocks are not having a great go of it
(27:05):
right now. We have told you to avoid the whole
insurance complex from a flack down Ta Voya, and they've
been under pressure. And we'll keep coming at you because
we told you recently the auto dealers. We just recently
(27:28):
told you the transports, and by the way, let's see,
I think just this week, if I am correct, this
is not coming up correct. Well, let's just say the
transport started the week at sixteen three six', four it
(27:52):
closed a week at fifteen one oh. Four, YEAH i got.
It seven point seven percent drop in the companies that
move everything QUITE mooi. Importante so just letting you know
(28:15):
on today's, drop we're already gauging what ain't. Dropping but
they pretty much got a lot of things, today, THOUGH
i must tell you modest losses in some of those
energy names LIKE GeV AND vst, modest quite, modest and
(28:40):
some other. Ones i'm going to be looking at what
was interesting to me Today. Microsoft remember they gapped it up,
yesterday and we warned gapped it up at five point fifty.
Five it's back to five twenty four already and a
beautiful gap in meta. Yesterday that's not going to hold
(29:01):
in this. Market drop twenty three bucks. Today we'll keep
a close eye on. It why we love companies that
gap to the. Upside they came off to banks today
And advance declins eleven, up thirty two down on The,
nasdaq thirteen, up twenty nine down on The New. York
(29:24):
you ready for, this more new yearly lows on The
New york than new yearly highs and on The nasdaq
five times as, many ladies and. Gentlemen there's some holy crap.
Statistics we'll head into next week and we'll see what's
(29:49):
next out of the, president because as we have told,
you it's too. Much it's too much of. Him and
MAY i state for the record a little bit of.
Crazy you're firing somebody who puts out statistics on jobs
(30:10):
and call them liars and cheaters the month after they
put out a number of two hundred and fifty thousand
that you. Praised you know what that does to someone's
credibility you know what it does to somebody's. Credibility i'll
(30:34):
leave it at. That we wish him, well we're rooting for,
him but it's getting silly And i'm. Worried and now
the job, market and now the job, market and MAY
(31:02):
i repeat? That and now the job market. Again we'll
keep you on top of it without, agenda ulterior motive or.
Bias you know where we. Stand we stand on your. Side,
(31:29):
personally we couldn't give a crap about any of. Them,
professionally we must watch them. Closely up next list that
and the other thing or whatever?
Speaker 6 (31:41):
Else is the one Only Investor's edge.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
You're listening.
Speaker 2 (32:15):
To what are you waiting for one to ready? Go?
Speaker 1 (32:22):
Inquests we can't Recalled, Bob.
Speaker 2 (32:58):
Welcome once again to Investor. Edge SO i Mentioned apple
and their, tariffs but they also reported earnings and earnings
were accelerating a little, bit and the stock was up
four bucks early finished down five. Bucks do you know?
(33:19):
WHY i think we'll hear a little bit more of.
This Tim cooks came out and said that the numbers
were skewed and front loaded because everybody was worried about the,
tariffs so they bought. First but now things are slowing.
(33:42):
Again apple stock has been on a versus basis, terrible
and we have been telling you to avoid. It topped
out of two. Sixty it's getting near two hundred and
(34:11):
little other worry About. Apple the next big thing we're
being told is a flip. Phone, really didn't the flip
phone go the way of The dodo? Burn And i'm,
Hearing i'm hearing it's going to cost two thousand. Bucks,
(34:35):
really we'll see how it. Goes That's apple. Again people
were worried about, tariffs that they would have to pay
a bunch higher on the. iPhone so by now before the,
(34:55):
tariffs and there's the worry about the. Economy last QUARTERS
gdp was. Three but how much was that front? Loaded my,
ANSWER i don't, know but based on What apple is,
saying it doesn't take a reach to be thinking that
(35:31):
everything was good before and now that buying power gone.
AGAIN i don't, know but we do know What apple
said things to ponder ladies and. GENTLEMEN i WISH i
(35:52):
had The president's. EAR i know he wouldn't listen even
IF i, did BUT i can help the man out
if he was to, listen big. TIME i am a
lot smarter than, him a lot smarter than him on the.
(36:15):
TARIFFS i would be able to set him straight on the,
tariffs but he wouldn't. Listen and anybody who does disagree
(36:38):
with hum gets pounded into. Oblivion what? Else kamala was
on The Colbert show last, Night and let me just tell,
YOU i had a four pm flight up to The northeast.
YESTERDAY i originally had a seven pm BUT i knew
there was, weather SO i took the four pm AND
(36:59):
i ended up my flight left at about ten forty five,
pm so six hours and forty five minute. Delay and
on the, AIRPLANE i Watched commala as unthrilled AS i
am With President. Trump this woman's a. Nightmare what a, Lightweight.
Speaker 3 (37:28):
What a?
Speaker 2 (37:29):
Lightweight And colbert is just pure, nausea pure Nause you
might as well give her a. BackRub but she's a, lightweight,
uninspiring can't put sentences. Together simple questions to answer about
(37:58):
who's leading The Democratic party that she can't. Answer dodge
the bullet if you ask, me especially on the, border
Which trump gets a plus plus plus plus plus plus
plus plus plus and she got AN f minus minus
(38:21):
minus minus minus. Minus but, ANYWAY i watched that AND
i was, Like i'm sitting on the, Plane i'm, like,
huh couldn't believe. It but back on the, president he
should be listening to me on the. Tariffs he should
be listening to. Me they're causing a little, turmoil and
(38:44):
then they can cause a lot more if he doesn't
take down these. Tariffs and if he thinks the economy
is thrilled with fifteen, percent an economy that's used to.
Not we'll Say i'm in hopes if in a year
from now he takes in twenty billion a month and
pays down the debt and we got three percent, growth
(39:07):
he'll get then he'll get the, handshake the, hug and the.
Applause i'm not so. Sure in other, news IT'S nfl,
Season ladies And Gentlemen hall Of fame game, yesterday AND
i had no Idea Antonio gates was not in The
(39:28):
hall Of, fame one of the greatest tight. Ends what
do they wait? For you, know These hall Of, fames
they wait for people that die before they put them,
in which really pisses me. Off, anyway it's football. Season
i'm not hopeful on The. GIANTS i think they're gonna
have a great. Defense i'm not so sure about the.
OFFENSE i gotta tell, you if they get six, Wins
(39:50):
i'd be. Happy anything above, that, boy oh, Boy i'd be.
Thrilled buffalo looks pretty. Good ask. Me we'll follow it.
Closely And i'm back In Fantasy league this. Year ladies and,
gentlemen that all, said you have a great. Weekend drive
carefully when you get. Home do LIKE i. Do quite.
(40:12):
Simple make sure you hug your. Family make sure you
hug your. Children they wi feel. Better you will feel,
BETTER i, promise stay, well be, Well thanks for, joining,
goodnight all bye.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Bye this has Been Investor's edge With Gary cultbom on Biz.
Talk to listen to past episodes or to get in
contact With, gary go To garykay dot. Com That's garykay dot.
Com
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