Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your Money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
And welcome on to gund to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam
Sarhan in for Gary K who's out today. Today is Monday,
September eighth, twenty twenty five. We have a great show
for you tonight. As always, want to thank you very
much for being here. Before we dive into the show,
I want to just give you a few housekeeping notes
and then give you some notes from Gary and then
we'll dive in and have a lot to discuss today.
(00:32):
So first off, this is a show about you and
your money and all of the fun points in between.
Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get the
show in your city, you can go to Gary k
dot com. You can listen live or archive. We are
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at Gary k dot com. You can follow Gary on
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(00:53):
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every day you can email Gary he asked about his
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service is conviction leaders dot com. That's Gary's premium service
where he shares inter day updates, daily market webcasts. He
shows you charts and the webcasts, updates you throughout the
(01:15):
day on what he's seeing, gives a pre market report,
actionable ideas, and a whole lot more. All of that's
available at conviction leaders dot com. All right, if you
note some Gary, the ten year keeps heading lower, and
that's good for the yields. A good recovery in some
of the semi coonductor stocks over the last week or so,
still needs plenty of work. And then we're getting some
(01:37):
good reactions from big things like Broadcom ticker symbols a VGO.
That's more or less the highlights that I wanted with
Gary wanted me to convey to you. And then I
just want to make sure I'm not missing anything else.
Now that seems about right, all right, perfect, So that's
that now. Other news. When I did the show, I
think it was last time in the week's days. When
(01:59):
I did the show a few weeks ago, just recently,
I talked about breakouts and the importance of them. I
mentioned breakout and setups. Dot com and where I built
is basically a thing to help people find stocks that
are breaking out and sitting up in real time. Got
a lot of positive feedback from everybody, so it's my pleasure.
And the idea of listening to the market also resonated
(02:19):
very well with many of you, at least that's what
I've heard people sending messages over to me and so
on and so forth. So the idea that the market's speaking,
let's talk about this for a little bit because it's important,
and then our job is to listen, and then I'll
go through some breakouts for it.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
Today.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
If there were a lot, I think they were over
twenty five or thirty breakouts and over one hundred and
fifty setups, So I'm not going to go through all
of them, but I'll go through some of them for you.
It is to be able to understand that our job
is to be in harmony with the market, period harm
money with the markets my little play on the word harmony,
but really want to be alignment the market. For so
(02:56):
many years, when I first got started, I used to
fight the market, and I used to get alre he heated.
I was also way younger, and I started trading as
a teenager. But in my twenties, really all this crystal
or these experiences I'm sharing started happening, and I would
I realized that that gets me nowhere. In fact, it's
a losing proposition in our Wall Street language, ROI is
(03:18):
return on investment. It gives me a negative ROI. Now
I know that with some salt and pepper in my
hair and a little bit you know, a few more
decades under my experience under my belt, you know you
learned certain things right. So one of the biggest things
is that the market speaking and my jobs are being
harmony with it. So how do we make money if
(03:38):
that's the ultimate goal? Think of it like this first
principles thinking. Right, if you go back and look at
a lot of the big investor as you look at
Elon Musk is famous for making this part of his
his business is that he always just simplifies things, and
when he's done, he simplifies me some more. To first
principles thinking, what is the absolute necessity to get the
(04:00):
job done right? In school? To teach our kids to
simplify fractions when you look at the market. You know
you're buying and selling stocks, commodities, currencies, crypto, whatever it
is that you're buying and selling. For the purposes of
my conversation with you, I'll talk about stocks, but it
applies to any freely traded market. The idea is real simple,
is that you want to be able to make sure
(04:23):
that you're way ahead of the game and that you
have you understand the principles right what actually moves the needle,
risk and reward. It's it doesn't matter if you're buying
apple or Tesla or Navidia, or you know, bitcoin, or
crude oil or gold, silver, orange juice, doesn't matter. What
(04:43):
matters is three important things. First, entry price. These are
my three questions. I always asked before I enter. Where
am I going to enter? Before I enter? So entry price,
exit price. If you're trading long term, different conversation. I'm
talking about for intermediate term trading and less under that.
(05:06):
You know, weekly charts, monthly charts, intermediate term position. Told
it for a few months, even a few years, a
few weeks, few days, you know, all that kind of stuff.
This applies to you buy and hold it for twenty years.
A completely different conversation, But for everything else this applies.
So where am I going to enter, where am I
going to exit? And how much am I going to
risk if I'm wrong? And going into it with the
(05:29):
understanding that if you're an active trader, most trades aren't
going to work. And that's okay as long as when
you're wrong, the risk is small, and when you're right,
the winds are bigger than the losses over and big
enough period of time. That's really it. Nobody get that
I know, gets rewarded on their statements, their brokerage statements
if the company's earnings beat estimates, guidance went up or
(05:53):
increased guidance or lower guidance, or their volume went up,
or their their price to book ratio or their peak
eratio or their balance sheet or income statement. You know,
one thing shows up on your statement, on your brokerage statement,
it's just price. So being in harmony with the market
is so powerful. Now, asking yourself what do you really
(06:16):
want as an investor or a trader is another superpower
because it allows you to align what you're doing or
what you want to do, your objectives with your actions.
If I want to make money, that's a whole different
skill set and focus than if I want to be right.
(06:37):
Notice I'll say it again, if I want to make
money investing in trading. It's a whole different focus, mindset,
skill set than if I want to prove that I'm right.
When I first got started, I didn't understand that difference.
I would just fight, fight, fight, and I want to
be right, and that's all that mattered to me. I
(06:57):
just want to be right, and of course I wasn't
would lose, and I'd understand risk and so on and
so forth. So it's where you enter, where do you exit?
How much do you risk when you're wrong? Those are
my three magical questions, and understanding to be wrong a lot.
Just like in baseball. The best baseball players average three
hits out of ten pitches, so that means seven strikeouts, okay,
And they're the best of the best because it's asymmetric
(07:20):
risk to reward when they're wrong. They're wrong one, they're
one out when they're wrong. When they're right, if they
hit a grand slam, they could be up more than one.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Right.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Three, this is one person on base, two people on base,
and then you know whatever it is.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
Right.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Four is the highest and three people on base and
the actual batter. So it's four points when they're right,
if they crack a homer, and if the wrong they strikeout,
they're out one. That's big returns when they're right and
small risk when they're wrong. So that's big. Next, when
you look at investing, not knowing, you know, it's uncertain, right,
(07:58):
nobody knows what's going to happen next week, tomorrow and
next week's you know, next year, whatever the case is.
It's really important how do you navigate the unknown. It's
risk reward. Everything comes down to risk reward and then
focus like a hawk on price. And that's why breakouts
are so important. That's why stocks moving up on volume
are so important. That's why you know, so on and
so forth. Why don't I understand what you're saying. You
(08:19):
want to listen to the market, be in harmony with
the market. I want to be I want to make
money more than I want to be right. Okay, my
goal is to make money. Then egos kind of pause,
put on the side for a little bit. Understand you're
going to be wrong a lot, and that's okay. As
you're trading. Has nothing to do with you as a person,
nothing to do with your worth, your you know, sense
of value, your steam, how you feel that day, you know,
(08:41):
support to separated and understand it's an infinite gain. The
markets are always going to be there. They're going to
now live me, now live all of us. And that's
okay if you have proper structure, rules, discipline in place
to navigate that. This way, you don't have to go
(09:01):
all in on one trade. Oh, I just got to
get out, and then you take massive risk and the
size of the position is way too big, and then
you end up selling out when the market or the
stock pulls back just a hair because it's too big
of a position for you. Right, you lose sleep at
night whatever. So sizing the positions important, having the right
(09:26):
positions important, Being in the leaders and then being in
harmony with the market. In other words, long in the
bull market and either out or short in a bear market.
Really that's simple. And there's only three ways the market
can move or your stock can move up, down, or
sideways after you buy it. Literally it's all the stock
can do. So for all things being equal, being long,
(09:48):
I want to buy something, I want to go up
after I buy it. Well, if it's going to go up,
for sure, nobody knows. But if it doesn't go up,
I know I'm going to exit, and I know how
much I'm going to risk if I'm wrong. That gives
me structure, It gives me discipline. And if I follow
those rules. When i'm wrong, i'm wrong small. When i'm right,
I'm right big, bigger than i'm wrong. Over time, it compounds.
(10:12):
That's a lot. That's a hope. At least, it compounds
and compounds and compounds, and staying focused on the leaders
is super important.
Speaker 4 (10:21):
This morning I.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Took I take my kids' school every day and we
leave the house and my kiss, My daughter's in the car,
my son's going towards the chill. You want to check
the mail up next, I'll finish the story. We've got
a lot more to cover it. I'm adam sorry, and
this is the one and only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
I'll pick up with the mail.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Hi.
Speaker 5 (11:02):
I'm Gary Kolbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge.
We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money
for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary money management.
No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.
We also provide a full range of personalized services, including
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(11:25):
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have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals
to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach
to investing is not getting you to where you would
like to be, call us to make an appointment for
a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is eight
eight eight four two two five five five nine. That's
(11:48):
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That's eight eight eight four two two five to five,
five to nine. Investment advisory services offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You're listening to Okay, you promise it could be fun.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Investor's Edge the last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called bomb.
Speaker 6 (12:19):
It doesn't get better than this, and welcome once again
to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
In case you're just joining him us, exceed me, or
missed any part of the show, you can go to
Gary k dot com. You can rewind, fast forward, listen
at your convenience twenty four to seven any device. All right,
we left off of the mail, so focus, right, what's
the point of story we leave, We're supposed to get
in the car, and my son wants to go check
the mail. I'm like, nope, what are we doing right now?
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Go to school?
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Yeah, check the mail after school, get in that car.
Life is and I told him nicely, life is full
of distract Same with the market. I mean, it's such
a parallel, unbelievable parallel, so many stocks going up down sideways.
This news headline, that news headline, than most of them
don't even matter. Yeah, sure, I'd like to go check
the mail. He finds a fun checking the mail. He's
(13:15):
still young, he's still in elementary school. So hey, it's
a fun thing for little kids to do, is go
check the mail. Sure, it's even fun for adults to
do every once in a while if it expects something good. Sure,
But the time and place we're trying to go to school.
We want to beat the car line. Timing is very important.
But more importantly, I'm trying to teach him how to
stay focused. Of course I did in a loving fashion,
(13:37):
doing it nicely and all that fun stuff and use
it as an opportunity to learn. So we walked. Before
we open that door to go outside. The objective was
to get in the car. And then he opens that
side he sees the mailbox. Mailbox happened to be open.
That's what car is. Attention And he walked over towards
the mail like, WHOA, what's going on? And stay focused? Right?
So I'd let him check the mail, of course, but
(13:58):
I told him that the and there is okay, you
want to stay focused. Same thing with the market. How
many times I find the stock, Oh it's breaking out,
or oh it's going up, or oh it's bouncing off
support or or or or, and then I just forget
about it and then it takes off without me. Happens
a zillion times. Look, there's a leading stock right now.
(14:23):
Pallenteer ticker Simple PLTR had a big run this year
from April, from sixty six all the way up to
one ninety back in August, and now it's pulling into
the fifty day and it's just sitting there, consolidating nicely,
quietly right near the fifty. Last few weeks, all right,
really boring. Nothing's happening in the last few weeks. But
that's normal. It's part of the process. You take a
(14:45):
look at Robin hood. Hood is a ticker there. Again,
these are not by recommending. Nothing I say is any
No investment advice is given. Everything is general informational purposes
only investment involves risks and past performance, not taking the
future results. No earning's claims are being made, and every
other disclaimer you think you can make.
Speaker 3 (15:05):
Right.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
So with hood, hod goes from twenty nine in April
up to one seventeen in July August, and then it
pulls into the fifty day. Then in day like today,
thunderous rally off the fifty day. But the last few days,
maybe last few weeks, quiet action right near the fifty
now a palneer gap up tomorrow And I have no idea,
(15:27):
but what I it's again, like Arry says, it's a
familiar photo album. When you go through photo albums, you're
looking for familiar faces. When you go through thousands of
spock charts, you begin to see patterns. You do it
year after year, year, day after day, year after year.
You know, so on so okay, great, I've seen this
before many times. You know, Hood was a great setup
(15:49):
on breakouts and setups. Anybody wants sign up, you can
feel free breakouts and setups. Dot com plans start at
nineteen bucks a month, so I'm not trying to sell
you anything and get it just covers the cost of
the data bit more so we can make sure that
the lights stay on. But it's a tool that I wanted, right.
I was tired of missing breakouts. I was tired of this,
tired of finding set and it was today with technology
(16:11):
can automate a lot of it. And been working with
coders for a few years. Invest a lot of time
and money into this thing, and here we go. It's
ready to go and helps many, many, many many people.
And the ideas is be in service. So it's a
tool that I wish I would have had way back when.
So here you go doesn't mean Hood has to keep
going up. It doesn't mean that Pollenteer is going to
(16:32):
go up. Both of them could roll over and get
crushed tomorrow or take off and go tomorrow. But again,
it's stacking the odds of success in your favor. That's
listening to the market, that's staying focused. Right every day,
We've got a list of stocks that are breaking out
and setting up the breakout, so I'm prepared before the
market breaks out. Anyone can tell you after the breakout
(16:53):
short I can look back and say, oh, Palneer broke
out three months ago, but where was I that day.
That's the value right as it's breaking out in real time.
Here's one Amazon AMZN, same situation, went from one sixty
one to two thirty six April to July. Ish pulled
back into the fifty. They broke it for a little
bit and then recovered and it tried breaking out. Today
(17:15):
it's right back to that two thirty six level. Good
action doesn't mean it's going higher. It's just something that
was on my list showed up today. Okay, that's what
I mean by folks filtering out the noise. There's thousands
of stocks out there, thousands of ETFs out there. I
don't want one thousand stocks or five thousand stocks or
no thank you. I want to focus on the strongest
(17:38):
of the strong. Another one that was on the list today.
Let's see a lab Hysteria labs alab. This is a
semiconductor fabless stock. APS ratings eighty two out of ninety nine.
The composite rating is ninety nine. The relative strength rating
is ninety eight. Best rating is ninety nine for all
of these ratings, so it's a highly rankedop. Average daily
(18:01):
volume is five point six million shares. It breaks out
on volume to a new high. That's a good looking
breakout all time high. By the way, So this thought
went from what was it forty seven back in April
all the way up to one ninety nine forty seven,
interestingly enough, back in early August, pulled back into the
(18:24):
twenty one day. This guy didn't even pull back into
the fifty because he's so strong, and then breaks out
today on thunderous volume. He basically moved sideways for about
four weeks since let's say he had an earlier breakout
of near one hundred. Since July when he first broke
out of a nice long base, ALAB has been up
(18:46):
every single week except for one week, and then one
week he ended in the upper half of the range.
So again, it's listening to the market. Doesn't mean a
lab has to double from here, a triple from here,
at quadruple from here. I just want to see, I
want to see the stocks that are breaking out. That's
the market speaking. It's nonverbal. I understand that, but when
(19:09):
you you know, it's connecting dots. Like the kids they
draw that little da da da, and they draw the
whole thing and they get a flower, they get a dinosaur. Okay, great,
it's one dot at a time. So basically you're in
a situation now where the environment is strong. We're in
a bull market. It's really important to listen to the
(19:32):
market and all the time. Listen to the market. Back
in March and April, you know, it's a complete different
The market was seeing complete different too, and it was
a complete different complexion, like Gary says, right, So again,
focusing on those breakouts it's a way of staying focused.
So I don't go check the mail and check my
phone and text messages and this, that and the other thing.
No laser focused on leaders because again I want stocks
(19:55):
that go up after I buy them, So I want
to find stocks that are breaking out and also stock
they're setting up the breakout in real time. By the way,
this updates all throughout the day. Pretty soon we're going
to add extended hours, historical breakouts and some movers, but
for now it's breakouts instead ups. But we've got a
lot of requests coming in, so we're gonna do our
best accommodate. But again you don't need that. You can
(20:16):
just go online and go to any charging service that
you do. But it's doing the sit ups right. Look
for stocks moving higher on volume. Look short stocks all
day by percent price change. I want to see which
stocks are up the most on any given day. Forget
if they're breaking out or not. I don't care if
it's rallying from a fifty two week low, or it's
(20:38):
a mid level base, or if it's just up up
a lot. It's a great way to find out which
ones are moving that's where the money's flowing, especially if
they do it on volume. All right, up next, We've
got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan's the
one and only investors Age.
Speaker 4 (21:11):
You're listening to. America is talking fallowing Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (21:16):
He's gotta be beat with the crowd. Is just on
his feet here.
Speaker 1 (21:20):
Just said you're on a boy with Gary called Bob
come highly recommended.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
You're gonna feel better if you talk to.
Speaker 7 (21:26):
Him and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
In case you're just joining us or miss any part
of today's show, or if I want to best you
can slow down, fast forward, listen on any device you
want for free twenty four to seven on Gary k
dot com. All right, market close hired. Today NASDAK was
up about ninety eight points to twenty one thousand and
seven ninety eight, the S and P five hundred was
up about thirteen points to six ninety five, and the
(22:01):
Dow was up one hundred and fourteen points to forty
five thy five fourteen. All that matters because and the
Russell was up about three points to twenty three ninety four.
So all that matters because Okay, let's take a look
at the week ahead. We spoke about listening to the market,
spoke about the price volume. Might can come back to
that later, but I really want to just focus on
(22:23):
helping you again. Everything I'm doing here is I'm thinking myself, like,
what do I want to hear? Write these timeless lessons
helping you make sense of all of the incoming data
and everything that's being just NonStop sent to us. Right,
so this week big news inflation. We're getting towards the
end of the quarter. The next few weeks the quarters
over starts over October first, Okay, great, the last few
(22:47):
weeks of September or every quarter. Really, earnings start to
taper off. Doesn't mean we don't have any earnings. No,
we do have earnings. This week, Adobe's reporting earnings, I believe.
When is that? Oracles reporting earnings, game stop supporting earnings,
Synapsis reports earnings, chew Wee reports earnings. So we have
earnings coming out later this week, but not in the
(23:09):
same I guess, same intensity like we did at the
beginning and middle.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
Of the quarter.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
Beginning, middle of the quarter, it's just non stop boom boom, boom,
boom boom all the time. Right now, slow and steady.
So earnings tomorrow we have Oracle, game stop Synapsis no problem.
Wednesday we have the first reading of inflation. And last
week we had the jobs report. This week we have inflation.
(23:37):
Why does that matter? Because the Fed? The FED has
made it very clear that they're ready to cut rates.
But how fast they cut, we don't know how deep
they cut. Is it gonna be twenty five basis points,
you know, point twenty five percent, or is it fifty
basis points point five percent? Or is it one hundred
basis points. I'd be surprised if they do that one
full percentage points. I don't know, nobody knows. We'll find
(24:01):
out a lot of it depends on this week's inflation data,
right because the fedman is coming up, so after that
so or later, you know, after inflation over that. So
what happens when you have a situation where PPI the
producer price in next comes out. That's kind of important
because tariffs impact producer prices. But also that's on Wednesday.
(24:24):
Thursday is consumer pricing the consumer price in next CPI.
So Wednesday we have the PPI, the producer price in next.
Earnings are coming from Chewy as well. Thursday we have
the consumer price in next. In the morning we also
have Adobe and Kroger reporting earnings that day. I don't
know if it's before the close, before the opener, after
the close. And then Friday we have the preliminary number
(24:45):
for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. So it's a
busy week. But the focus go back to the mail, right,
the focus will be on earnings and then the FED
earnings from a few companies Oracle, you know, Adobe, sure,
but really the Fed, what does inflation mean for the Fed?
(25:10):
That's what matters because that's what's going to move the
needle for the market. Remember, we're trading near an all
time high and the Fed's talking about cutting rates. That's
pretty aggressive considering typically the market. You know, the FED
put was the thing they used to say way back when,
where the FED would cut rates when the market was
in trouble and the economy was in trouble. Now they're
(25:31):
just cutting rates because they want to get ahead of it.
Speaker 4 (25:33):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
There's no judgment here right, wrong, up, down, left, right,
and it's nothing. I have nothing, no interest whatsoever giving
an opinion about you know, what I think the FED
should do or shouldn't do. That's not important to me.
What's important is a what does a FED do? But
what's more important how does the market react to it?
The next FED meeting is on September sixteenth and seventeen,
which is next week. So this think we have inflation.
(25:55):
Next week we have a FED meeting, So we'll see
if inflation comes in really hot jumps and it's really
a problem, that could cause the market to sell off
because that means it'll tighten the noose around the fence
neck to cut, it won't be able to cut as
much because remember the downside of cutting rates is higher inflation.
So if inflation tie and going up, the FED won't
(26:18):
be able to cut as much. And the market wants
to cut, and it wants a few cuts. Actually, if
inflation's down significantly, it gives a market a sigh of
relief because the FED can cut. Really, that's simple. So
lower inflation closer to two percent target, the more the
FED can cut. Higher inflation, the less the FED can
cut because the consequence of cutting rates is higher inflation.
(26:41):
So again, all that's the economic side of it. On
the investing side of it, how does the market react?
How does the market react? Market those up down or sideways?
That's super important. And news come out, you'll see futures
go up, the stock market up that day, go down
that day, sure, great, But is it up ten points
(27:04):
or is it up three percent? Is it up on
no vine excuse me? Or is it up on heavy volume?
And that's the next thing I want to discuss with you.
So again, the week ahead, We've got inflation this week
and a few big companies are reporting learnings. All right,
next week we have the FED meeting. Okay, the market's
near all time highs. Then as that one hundred the QQQ.
(27:26):
If we break out, the QQQ can breakout. Remember ETFs
can break out in disease, breakout the S and P
five hundred, the SPY or the DOW, the DA or
the small cap rustle two thousand, IWN all of these again,
just like a stock and ETF can break out and
break Some breakouts work, some breakouts fail, and that's okay.
(27:49):
That's also part of the process and being able to
navigate that. It's important because if I buy a breakout
and it fails the next day or even the same day, Look, Amazon,
this morning was a great breakout. By the close, it
ended below the pivot point or the breakout point. So
technically it wasn't really a breakout today because it closed
(28:10):
below that two thirty six fifty three pivot point. You're
at two thirty five eighty four. Today's close. Not ideal.
You have a close at two fifty or two forty,
two forty or two. You know, anything above that two
thirty six pivot great, especially if it doesn't heavy volume. Great,
But if not, all right, that tells me something. And
(28:34):
then if we start seeing a lot of those, oh okay,
now I'm listening other things. I look for with the
breakouts and stocks that are moving up on volume, which,
by the way, you can access again anywhere. These stocks
up on volume. They just sort it and then look
for breakouts yourself, which I did for years and years
and years manually is look for themes. When I find
stocks that are breaking out, what other stocks are moving
(28:57):
One that jumped out at me right at the open
today I found on breakouts and setups. I went, oh,
hold on a second year, Chinese stocks are pretty strong.
Net Teas and Tes another stock on breakouts instead of
dot Com broke out today. EPs rating is ninety seven,
composite rating is ninety five. Relative strength and rating is
eighty eight. Why I said, oh, let me go look
(29:18):
at FXI, which is the Chinese TF that's setting up
to break out. All right, let me go look at
other Chinese stocks. I looked at bay Do showed up
on the list today. Also, huge gap up one oh
five nineteen was a high from a while ago, and
volume and Baidu has been coming up really strong over
the last ten days or so. I think you've had
(29:40):
only one down day since the end of August. Since
August twenty first, every other day's been up and by
Do Bidu has a huge I mean it was up
six and a half percent today, already had a big
move up, but still big gap up today. Oh okay,
So I noticed by Do broke out. Let me go
look at some other Chinese stocks. T broke out, well,
(30:01):
net Te's was a big breakout, and I looked at Baidu.
They looked at Ali Baba baba, oh lo, and behold
that thing gapped up a few days ago, sat tight
for three or four or five days, two four days,
and then boom breaks out of a little three or
four day consolidation today, coming up the right side of
a big bass Ali Baba baba. All that came from
(30:21):
net T's and Tes. But then I did something. I said,
oh okay, what else is moving here? I know these
big Chinese stocks, I know the ETF, the FXI that
tracks a Chinese stock market. Let me go check them out.
A few days ago, I think it was last week, Tan, Tan,
Solar Eat stocks were just showing up on the list
(30:41):
left and right. I said, oh okay, let me go
look at Tan and Lo and behold Tan broke out,
Tans and ETF the track solar stocks. Okay, that was
on Friday. Got it Housing XHB. Same thing happened there.
I saw Toll Brothers Tol breakout. I think it was
Wednesday of last week or Thursday of last week. Yeah,
(31:05):
I think it was Thursday. Told Brothers broke out. And
then I looked at every other housing stock right away.
Caught my attention, Lennar l E. N Oh, that was
kind of edging out, Meritage Holmes MTh breaking out or
it broke out as well. This was a few last
week when I was looking at it, and so on
and so forth. And then I looked at the XHP,
the housing ETF and oh, here we go, that broke out.
(31:29):
Fed's gonna cut rates. Mortgage rates are coming down. Should
be good for homebuilders. I get it, simple theme, and again,
so on and so forth. The detective work kicks in,
finding stocks, putting the pieces together, all right, of connecting
dots up next, We've got a lot more to cover.
I'm adam sorry. And this is the one and only
investors A.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
You're listening to, Well, what are you waiting for? One
to ready go? We can't recall.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Pop and welcome once again to Investor's.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Edge in case you're just joining us for miss any
part of the show, you can go to gary k
dot com or wine Fast Forward at your convenience twenty
four seven, all for free on gary k dot com.
All right, so we spoke about the importance of listening
to the market week ahead, inflation's coming up this week.
Next week we have the Fed sprinkling a few companies
reporting earnings move and we spoke up breakouts, listening to
(33:04):
the market. Spoke about the three most important things and investing.
For me at least, it's entry, exit, and then risk.
Where am I going to enter or am I gonna
exit if I'm wrong? And how much are I risk
if I'm wrong? From entry? And then the risk the
other side is my overall portfolio. And that's where the
sizing comes in. In other words, if I have one
hundred thousand dollars portfolio, I risk one percent. If I
lose on this trade, I'll lose one thousand dollars Based
(33:25):
on that example, Okay, if I put a ten percent
stop below my entry, which is why. But if I'm
just giving you again simplifying to illustrate the point, Let's
say buy it at one hundred, my exit is at ninety,
then I can realize. Okay, if I'm gonna lose a
thousand dollars, I know I'm gonna buy one hundred chairs
because one hundred times ten is thousand. Okay, that's sizing, right.
If I want to take a bigger size, smaller risk,
(33:48):
you can do whatever you want obviously, but again just
trying to illustrate the point and make the help you
understand that, oh, the difference between entries, exits risk from
entry risk for your overall portfolio, so on and so forth.
So then we spoke about breakouts, how to listen to
the market, How does they focused laser focused on leaders
and leaders breaking out because there's lots of leaders, right,
(34:09):
I want to find the ones that were the markets
just compelling, Like a lab Alab right that moves higher
on heavy volume today breaks out. Okay, it's average volume.
There is five point six million shares today, you had
almost ten five point six is the average for a
lab alab today you have almost ten nine point five.
(34:29):
That's the big investors buying the stock net T's andtes
right or net E's Chinese stock. Okay, great, seven hundred
and thirty three thousand shares on average today you break
out to a new high on one point one million
shares again, average volume seventy three three seven hundred and
thirty two thousand. Today you broke out on one point
(34:50):
one four million shares, Not Aunt Mary, nucle Bob doing
the buying, like Gary says, right, and it broke above resistance.
In the last few months, every time that teas and
tes got above let's say one for every time got
near one forty one, it would sell off. It got
its high as one thirty nine sold off down, the
(35:11):
one twenty two, bounced again to one thirty eight, one
thirty seven, fell down to the fifty day moving average.
Finally today gaps up and does it on volume again.
That's the big institution's doing the buying. Now. If this
rolls right over tomorrow and fails, so be it. That's okay.
It could happen. But if it keeps going, hey, that's important.
Gold GLD another one that broke out. This was two
(35:34):
Fridays ago, a week and a half ago, whatever, it
was two four or five trading days ago and six
days ago, so let's go. I think it was two
Fridays ago, but not last Friday the friday before. But
either way, recently GLD. Look at a ticker symbol GLD.
It's gold broke out of a very nice long multi
month base going back to April Gold. Another thing to
do is sort by percent year to date change. So
(35:56):
I look for leaders. I want to sort them by
the strongest stocks. Strong is ETF's strongest markets up year
to date. Gold, I believe is up two times maybe
even three times the S and P five hundred this year.
In twenty twenty five, big rally move sideways for months
back into January. February rallied again to April, moves sideways
all the way up until August, and then boom broke out.
(36:18):
And now so far the breakout's working. I'm not going
to buy it up here. It's extended. But the day
it broke out, I want to see it. That's an
example of a good breakout. Now, let's see if it works.
Not it doesn't work, it could roll over and fail.
Who knows all I know right now, that's a good
example of a breakout that worked. And if the breakout fails,
let's say you know you're trading between I'm going to
(36:38):
create a hypothetical example here one hundred and one oh
five for six months. Every time it gets to one
oh five, that's called resistance, it sells off to one
hundred that's support, and then bounce into one oh five resistance.
Support is one hundred six months later. Finally one day
it breaks above one oh five on Monster volume. That
tells you it's not Aunt Mary, uncle, you know, Bob
doing the buying. So that's important because it tens. If that,
(37:01):
that's how all big stocks double and triple and quadruple
they would have to event. You know, just about every
stock I've ever studied broke out of a base, could
be a short base, a few days, base a few
weeks or a few months. But they break out, they
go sideways. Break out go sideways. And that's how we
got the expression the market takes the stairs up and
the elevator down stairs up, goes up sideways. That's a
stair goes up again, breaks out goes up sideways, breaks
(37:24):
out sideways, so on and so forth. So that's again
some of the things I look for up on volume.
This is a pretty much a free scanner. You can
do it anywhere that has price and charts, and it's
a free scanner. You just search stocks that are up
the most in any given day, sorted by price percent change,
and that again tells you if you have heavy volume
(37:46):
coming into that stock, even if it doesn't break out
that Oh okay, that's important. Something's happening right in that space.
Doesn't mean it has to keep going up, but something's
happening in space. And then I want to know, right, noted, Right.
I want to make sure I know, like Gary says, noted,
I want to make sure I know where the money's
(38:08):
flowing at any given time, because I want to be there.
I'm not going to catch them all. It's impossible. I
don't have to. That's a beauty of what we do.
You don't need to catch every single strong move ever.
I mean, it's just almost it's never gonna happen.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
I don't say never often, but it's very, very difficult
for that to happen. But that's okay, you don't have to. Again,
just being able to stay focused is a superpower in
this business, in life too, so a few other ones
hood we spoke about that penalt heer other things. I
look for big rallies up and then pull backs into
the fifty eight moving average CPNNG. Another example, this one
(38:47):
broke the fifty, but had a big rally up from
nineteen to thirty one April to the summer, move sideways
for a few months, pulled in an undercut the fifty,
but moved sideways and then exploded higher today on volume.
This one I found by just looking at stocks moving
up on volume today. You know another one that's up
big today that just happened to jump out at me
(39:09):
SATs Ecostar SATs. It's not breaking out today, just up
on volume today. Sold Spectrum to Starlink for billions of dollars,
all right, to avoid some kind of government breakup or
whatever they were had going on. All right, noted right,
Casey's General Store CSY. Another stock goes up big on earning, sorry,
(39:29):
up big on volume today. I believe they report earnings
today as well. Casy up big on volume. Average volume
here is two hundred and sixty three thousand. They had
over a million shares today and it's kind of up
the right side. And they gapped up big back in June. Again,
it's just putting the pieces of the puzzle together build
(39:51):
a bear. BBW up eleven percent today, huge move up extended.
I'm not buying it right now now but I saw
it when I reported earnings a few weeks ago, and
then pull back and then boom took off. All right,
helps me put the pieces of the puzzle together, all right.
(40:13):
Believe that's all the time we have for today. As always,
I want to thank you very much for being here.
This is a great pleasure, and hopefully I'll speak to
you again soon. Take care of everybody.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Kultbom on biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your Money now from the Viz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
And welcome on to gund to Investor's Edge. I'm Adam
Sarhan in for Gary K who's out today. Today is Monday,
September eighth, twenty twenty five. We have a great show
for you tonight. As always, want to thank you very
much for being here. Before we dive into the show,
I want to just give you a few housekeeping notes
and then give you some notes from Gary and then
we'll dive in and have a lot to discuss today.
(00:32):
So first off, this is a show about you and
your money and all of the fun points in between.
Just as a quick reminder, if you don't get the
show in your city, you can go to Gary k
dot com. You can listen live or archive. We are
live Monday through Friday six to seven pm Eastern. Also
at Gary k dot com. You can follow Gary on
x formerly known as Twitter, by just pressing the button
or his name is at Gary kolpam on x or
(00:53):
on Twitter. Also at gary k dot com. You can
subscribe to Gary's morning Notes sent directly at your inbox
every day you can email Gary he asked about his
money management services, or if you want more, a premium
service is conviction leaders dot com. That's Gary's premium service
where he shares inter day updates, daily market webcasts. He
shows you charts and the webcasts, updates you throughout the
(01:15):
day on what he's seeing, gives a pre market report,
actionable ideas, and a whole lot more. All of that's
available at conviction leaders dot com. All right, if you
note some Gary, the ten year keeps heading lower, and
that's good for the yields. A good recovery in some
of the semi coonductor stocks over the last week or so,
still needs plenty of work. And then we're getting some
(01:37):
good reactions from big things like Broadcom ticker symbols a VGO.
That's more or less the highlights that I wanted with
Gary wanted me to convey to you. And then I
just want to make sure I'm not missing anything else.
Now that seems about right, all right, perfect, So that's
that now. Other news. When I did the show, I
think it was last time in the week's days. When
(01:59):
I did the show a few weeks ago, just recently,
I talked about breakouts and the importance of them. I
mentioned breakout and setups. Dot com and where I built
is basically a thing to help people find stocks that
are breaking out and sitting up in real time. Got
a lot of positive feedback from everybody, so it's my pleasure.
And the idea of listening to the market also resonated
(02:19):
very well with many of you, at least that's what
I've heard people sending messages over to me and so
on and so forth. So the idea that the market's speaking,
let's talk about this for a little bit because it's important,
and then our job is to listen, and then I'll
go through some breakouts for it.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
Today.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
If there were a lot, I think they were over
twenty five or thirty breakouts and over one hundred and
fifty setups, So I'm not going to go through all
of them, but I'll go through some of them for you.
It is to be able to understand that our job
is to be in harmony with the market, period harm
money with the markets my little play on the word harmony,
but really want to be alignment the market. For so
(02:56):
many years, when I first got started, I used to
fight the market, and I used to get alre he heated.
I was also way younger, and I started trading as
a teenager. But in my twenties, really all this crystal
or these experiences I'm sharing started happening, and I would
I realized that that gets me nowhere. In fact, it's
a losing proposition in our Wall Street language, ROI is
(03:18):
return on investment. It gives me a negative ROI. Now
I know that with some salt and pepper in my
hair and a little bit you know, a few more
decades under my experience under my belt, you know you
learned certain things right. So one of the biggest things
is that the market speaking and my jobs are being
harmony with it. So how do we make money if
(03:38):
that's the ultimate goal? Think of it like this first
principles thinking. Right, if you go back and look at
a lot of the big investor as you look at
Elon Musk is famous for making this part of his
his business is that he always just simplifies things, and
when he's done, he simplifies me some more. To first
principles thinking, what is the absolute necessity to get the
(04:00):
job done right? In school? To teach our kids to
simplify fractions when you look at the market. You know
you're buying and selling stocks, commodities, currencies, crypto, whatever it
is that you're buying and selling. For the purposes of
my conversation with you, I'll talk about stocks, but it
applies to any freely traded market. The idea is real simple,
is that you want to be able to make sure
(04:23):
that you're way ahead of the game and that you
have you understand the principles right what actually moves the needle,
risk and reward. It's it doesn't matter if you're buying
apple or Tesla or Navidia, or you know, bitcoin, or
crude oil or gold, silver, orange juice, doesn't matter. What
(04:43):
matters is three important things. First, entry price. These are
my three questions. I always asked before I enter. Where
am I going to enter? Before I enter? So entry price,
exit price. If you're trading long term, different conversation. I'm
talking about for intermediate term trading and less under that.
(05:06):
You know, weekly charts, monthly charts, intermediate term position. Told
it for a few months, even a few years, a
few weeks, few days, you know, all that kind of stuff.
This applies to you buy and hold it for twenty years.
A completely different conversation, But for everything else this applies.
So where am I going to enter, where am I
going to exit? And how much am I going to
risk if I'm wrong? And going into it with the
(05:29):
understanding that if you're an active trader, most trades aren't
going to work. And that's okay as long as when
you're wrong, the risk is small, and when you're right,
the winds are bigger than the losses over and big
enough period of time. That's really it. Nobody get that
I know, gets rewarded on their statements, their brokerage statements
if the company's earnings beat estimates, guidance went up or
(05:53):
increased guidance or lower guidance, or their volume went up,
or their their price to book ratio or their peak
eratio or their balance sheet or income statement. You know,
one thing shows up on your statement, on your brokerage statement,
it's just price. So being in harmony with the market
is so powerful. Now, asking yourself what do you really
(06:16):
want as an investor or a trader is another superpower
because it allows you to align what you're doing or
what you want to do, your objectives with your actions.
If I want to make money, that's a whole different
skill set and focus than if I want to be right.
(06:37):
Notice I'll say it again, if I want to make
money investing in trading. It's a whole different focus, mindset,
skill set than if I want to prove that I'm right.
When I first got started, I didn't understand that difference.
I would just fight, fight, fight, and I want to
be right, and that's all that mattered to me. I
(06:57):
just want to be right, and of course I wasn't
would lose, and I'd understand risk and so on and
so forth. So it's where you enter, where do you exit?
How much do you risk when you're wrong? Those are
my three magical questions, and understanding to be wrong a lot.
Just like in baseball. The best baseball players average three
hits out of ten pitches, so that means seven strikeouts, okay,
And they're the best of the best because it's asymmetric
(07:20):
risk to reward when they're wrong. They're wrong one, they're
one out when they're wrong. When they're right, if they
hit a grand slam, they could be up more than one.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
Right.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Three, this is one person on base, two people on base,
and then you know whatever it is.
Speaker 3 (07:32):
Right.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Four is the highest and three people on base and
the actual batter. So it's four points when they're right,
if they crack a homer, and if the wrong they strikeout,
they're out one. That's big returns when they're right and
small risk when they're wrong. So that's big. Next, when
you look at investing, not knowing, you know, it's uncertain, right,
(07:58):
nobody knows what's going to happen next week, tomorrow and
next week's you know, next year, whatever the case is.
It's really important how do you navigate the unknown. It's
risk reward. Everything comes down to risk reward and then
focus like a hawk on price. And that's why breakouts
are so important. That's why stocks moving up on volume
are so important. That's why you know, so on and
so forth. Why don't I understand what you're saying. You
(08:19):
want to listen to the market, be in harmony with
the market. I want to be I want to make
money more than I want to be right. Okay, my
goal is to make money. Then egos kind of pause,
put on the side for a little bit. Understand you're
going to be wrong a lot, and that's okay. As
you're trading. Has nothing to do with you as a person,
nothing to do with your worth, your you know, sense
of value, your steam, how you feel that day, you know,
(08:41):
support to separated and understand it's an infinite gain. The
markets are always going to be there. They're going to
now live me, now live all of us. And that's
okay if you have proper structure, rules, discipline in place
to navigate that. This way, you don't have to go
(09:01):
all in on one trade. Oh, I just got to
get out, and then you take massive risk and the
size of the position is way too big, and then
you end up selling out when the market or the
stock pulls back just a hair because it's too big
of a position for you. Right, you lose sleep at
night whatever. So sizing the positions important, having the right
(09:26):
positions important, Being in the leaders and then being in
harmony with the market. In other words, long in the
bull market and either out or short in a bear market.
Really that's simple. And there's only three ways the market
can move or your stock can move up, down, or
sideways after you buy it. Literally it's all the stock
can do. So for all things being equal, being long,
(09:48):
I want to buy something, I want to go up
after I buy it. Well, if it's going to go up,
for sure, nobody knows. But if it doesn't go up,
I know I'm going to exit, and I know how
much I'm going to risk if I'm wrong. That gives
me structure, It gives me discipline. And if I follow
those rules. When i'm wrong, i'm wrong small. When i'm right,
I'm right big, bigger than i'm wrong. Over time, it compounds.
(10:12):
That's a lot. That's a hope. At least, it compounds
and compounds and compounds, and staying focused on the leaders
is super important.
Speaker 4 (10:21):
This morning I.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Took I take my kids' school every day and we
leave the house and my kiss, My daughter's in the car,
my son's going towards the chill. You want to check
the mail up next, I'll finish the story. We've got
a lot more to cover it. I'm adam sorry, and
this is the one and only Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
I'll pick up with the mail.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Hi.
Speaker 5 (11:02):
I'm Gary Kolbaum hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge.
We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money
for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary money management.
No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.
We also provide a full range of personalized services, including
retirement planning, fixed income and educational needs, all to assist
(11:25):
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have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals
to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach
to investing is not getting you to where you would
like to be, call us to make an appointment for
a complementary portfolio review. The number to call is eight
eight eight four two two five five five nine. That's
(11:48):
eight eight eight four two two five to five five nine.
That's eight eight eight four two two five to five,
five to nine. Investment advisory services offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells working.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You're listening to Okay, you promise it could be fun.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Investor's Edge the last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called bomb.
Speaker 6 (12:19):
It doesn't get better than this, and welcome once again
to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
In case you're just joining him us, exceed me, or
missed any part of the show, you can go to
Gary k dot com. You can rewind, fast forward, listen
at your convenience twenty four to seven any device. All right,
we left off of the mail, so focus, right, what's
the point of story we leave, We're supposed to get
in the car, and my son wants to go check
the mail. I'm like, nope, what are we doing right now?
Speaker 3 (12:53):
Go to school?
Speaker 2 (12:54):
Yeah, check the mail after school, get in that car.
Life is and I told him nicely, life is full
of distract Same with the market. I mean, it's such
a parallel, unbelievable parallel, so many stocks going up down sideways.
This news headline, that news headline, than most of them
don't even matter. Yeah, sure, I'd like to go check
the mail. He finds a fun checking the mail. He's
(13:15):
still young, he's still in elementary school. So hey, it's
a fun thing for little kids to do, is go
check the mail. Sure, it's even fun for adults to
do every once in a while if it expects something good. Sure,
But the time and place we're trying to go to school.
We want to beat the car line. Timing is very important.
But more importantly, I'm trying to teach him how to
stay focused. Of course I did in a loving fashion,
(13:37):
doing it nicely and all that fun stuff and use
it as an opportunity to learn. So we walked. Before
we open that door to go outside. The objective was
to get in the car. And then he opens that
side he sees the mailbox. Mailbox happened to be open.
That's what car is. Attention And he walked over towards
the mail like, WHOA, what's going on? And stay focused? Right?
So I'd let him check the mail, of course, but
(13:58):
I told him that the and there is okay, you
want to stay focused. Same thing with the market. How
many times I find the stock, Oh it's breaking out,
or oh it's going up, or oh it's bouncing off
support or or or or, and then I just forget
about it and then it takes off without me. Happens
a zillion times. Look, there's a leading stock right now.
(14:23):
Pallenteer ticker Simple PLTR had a big run this year
from April, from sixty six all the way up to
one ninety back in August, and now it's pulling into
the fifty day and it's just sitting there, consolidating nicely,
quietly right near the fifty. Last few weeks, all right,
really boring. Nothing's happening in the last few weeks. But
that's normal. It's part of the process. You take a
(14:45):
look at Robin hood. Hood is a ticker there. Again,
these are not by recommending. Nothing I say is any
No investment advice is given. Everything is general informational purposes
only investment involves risks and past performance, not taking the
future results. No earning's claims are being made, and every
other disclaimer you think you can make.
Speaker 3 (15:05):
Right.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
So with hood, hod goes from twenty nine in April
up to one seventeen in July August, and then it
pulls into the fifty day. Then in day like today,
thunderous rally off the fifty day. But the last few days,
maybe last few weeks, quiet action right near the fifty
now a palneer gap up tomorrow And I have no idea,
(15:27):
but what I it's again, like Arry says, it's a
familiar photo album. When you go through photo albums, you're
looking for familiar faces. When you go through thousands of
spock charts, you begin to see patterns. You do it
year after year, year, day after day, year after year.
You know, so on so okay, great, I've seen this
before many times. You know, Hood was a great setup
(15:49):
on breakouts and setups. Anybody wants sign up, you can
feel free breakouts and setups. Dot com plans start at
nineteen bucks a month, so I'm not trying to sell
you anything and get it just covers the cost of
the data bit more so we can make sure that
the lights stay on. But it's a tool that I wanted, right.
I was tired of missing breakouts. I was tired of this,
tired of finding set and it was today with technology
(16:11):
can automate a lot of it. And been working with
coders for a few years. Invest a lot of time
and money into this thing, and here we go. It's
ready to go and helps many, many, many many people.
And the ideas is be in service. So it's a
tool that I wish I would have had way back when.
So here you go doesn't mean Hood has to keep
going up. It doesn't mean that Pollenteer is going to
(16:32):
go up. Both of them could roll over and get
crushed tomorrow or take off and go tomorrow. But again,
it's stacking the odds of success in your favor. That's
listening to the market, that's staying focused. Right every day,
We've got a list of stocks that are breaking out
and setting up the breakout, so I'm prepared before the
market breaks out. Anyone can tell you after the breakout
(16:53):
short I can look back and say, oh, Palneer broke
out three months ago, but where was I that day.
That's the value right as it's breaking out in real time.
Here's one Amazon AMZN, same situation, went from one sixty
one to two thirty six April to July. Ish pulled
back into the fifty. They broke it for a little
bit and then recovered and it tried breaking out. Today
(17:15):
it's right back to that two thirty six level. Good
action doesn't mean it's going higher. It's just something that
was on my list showed up today. Okay, that's what
I mean by folks filtering out the noise. There's thousands
of stocks out there, thousands of ETFs out there. I
don't want one thousand stocks or five thousand stocks or
no thank you. I want to focus on the strongest
(17:38):
of the strong. Another one that was on the list today.
Let's see a lab Hysteria labs alab. This is a
semiconductor fabless stock. APS ratings eighty two out of ninety nine.
The composite rating is ninety nine. The relative strength rating
is ninety eight. Best rating is ninety nine for all
of these ratings, so it's a highly rankedop. Average daily
(18:01):
volume is five point six million shares. It breaks out
on volume to a new high. That's a good looking
breakout all time high. By the way, So this thought
went from what was it forty seven back in April
all the way up to one ninety nine forty seven,
interestingly enough, back in early August, pulled back into the
(18:24):
twenty one day. This guy didn't even pull back into
the fifty because he's so strong, and then breaks out
today on thunderous volume. He basically moved sideways for about
four weeks since let's say he had an earlier breakout
of near one hundred. Since July when he first broke
out of a nice long base, ALAB has been up
(18:46):
every single week except for one week, and then one
week he ended in the upper half of the range.
So again, it's listening to the market. Doesn't mean a
lab has to double from here, a triple from here,
at quadruple from here. I just want to see, I
want to see the stocks that are breaking out. That's
the market speaking. It's nonverbal. I understand that, but when
(19:09):
you you know, it's connecting dots. Like the kids they
draw that little da da da, and they draw the
whole thing and they get a flower, they get a dinosaur. Okay, great,
it's one dot at a time. So basically you're in
a situation now where the environment is strong. We're in
a bull market. It's really important to listen to the
(19:32):
market and all the time. Listen to the market. Back
in March and April, you know, it's a complete different
The market was seeing complete different too, and it was
a complete different complexion, like Gary says, right, So again,
focusing on those breakouts it's a way of staying focused.
So I don't go check the mail and check my
phone and text messages and this, that and the other thing.
No laser focused on leaders because again I want stocks
(19:55):
that go up after I buy them, So I want
to find stocks that are breaking out and also stock
they're setting up the breakout in real time. By the way,
this updates all throughout the day. Pretty soon we're going
to add extended hours, historical breakouts and some movers, but
for now it's breakouts instead ups. But we've got a
lot of requests coming in, so we're gonna do our
best accommodate. But again you don't need that. You can
(20:16):
just go online and go to any charging service that
you do. But it's doing the sit ups right. Look
for stocks moving higher on volume. Look short stocks all
day by percent price change. I want to see which
stocks are up the most on any given day. Forget
if they're breaking out or not. I don't care if
it's rallying from a fifty two week low, or it's
(20:38):
a mid level base, or if it's just up up
a lot. It's a great way to find out which
ones are moving that's where the money's flowing, especially if
they do it on volume. All right, up next, We've
got a lot more to cover. I'm Adam Sarhan's the
one and only investors Age.
Speaker 4 (21:11):
You're listening to. America is talking fallowing Investor's Edge.
Speaker 3 (21:16):
He's gotta be beat with the crowd. Is just on
his feet here.
Speaker 1 (21:20):
Just said you're on a boy with Gary called Bob
come highly recommended.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
You're gonna feel better if you talk to.
Speaker 7 (21:26):
Him and welcome once again to Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
In case you're just joining us or miss any part
of today's show, or if I want to best you
can slow down, fast forward, listen on any device you
want for free twenty four to seven on Gary k
dot com. All right, market close hired. Today NASDAK was
up about ninety eight points to twenty one thousand and
seven ninety eight, the S and P five hundred was
up about thirteen points to six ninety five, and the
(22:01):
Dow was up one hundred and fourteen points to forty
five thy five fourteen. All that matters because and the
Russell was up about three points to twenty three ninety four.
So all that matters because Okay, let's take a look
at the week ahead. We spoke about listening to the market,
spoke about the price volume. Might can come back to
that later, but I really want to just focus on
(22:23):
helping you again. Everything I'm doing here is I'm thinking myself, like,
what do I want to hear? Write these timeless lessons
helping you make sense of all of the incoming data
and everything that's being just NonStop sent to us. Right,
so this week big news inflation. We're getting towards the
end of the quarter. The next few weeks the quarters
over starts over October first, Okay, great, the last few
(22:47):
weeks of September or every quarter. Really, earnings start to
taper off. Doesn't mean we don't have any earnings. No,
we do have earnings. This week, Adobe's reporting earnings, I believe.
When is that? Oracles reporting earnings, game stop supporting earnings,
Synapsis reports earnings, chew Wee reports earnings. So we have
earnings coming out later this week, but not in the
(23:09):
same I guess, same intensity like we did at the
beginning and middle.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
Of the quarter.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
Beginning, middle of the quarter, it's just non stop boom boom, boom,
boom boom all the time. Right now, slow and steady.
So earnings tomorrow we have Oracle, game stop Synapsis no problem.
Wednesday we have the first reading of inflation. And last
week we had the jobs report. This week we have inflation.
(23:37):
Why does that matter? Because the Fed? The FED has
made it very clear that they're ready to cut rates.
But how fast they cut, we don't know how deep
they cut. Is it gonna be twenty five basis points,
you know, point twenty five percent, or is it fifty
basis points point five percent? Or is it one hundred
basis points. I'd be surprised if they do that one
full percentage points. I don't know, nobody knows. We'll find
(24:01):
out a lot of it depends on this week's inflation data,
right because the fedman is coming up, so after that
so or later, you know, after inflation over that. So
what happens when you have a situation where PPI the
producer price in next comes out. That's kind of important
because tariffs impact producer prices. But also that's on Wednesday.
(24:24):
Thursday is consumer pricing the consumer price in next CPI.
So Wednesday we have the PPI, the producer price in next.
Earnings are coming from Chewy as well. Thursday we have
the consumer price in next. In the morning we also
have Adobe and Kroger reporting earnings that day. I don't
know if it's before the close, before the opener, after
the close. And then Friday we have the preliminary number
(24:45):
for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment. So it's a
busy week. But the focus go back to the mail, right,
the focus will be on earnings and then the FED
earnings from a few companies Oracle, you know, Adobe, sure,
but really the Fed, what does inflation mean for the Fed?
(25:10):
That's what matters because that's what's going to move the
needle for the market. Remember, we're trading near an all
time high and the Fed's talking about cutting rates. That's
pretty aggressive considering typically the market. You know, the FED
put was the thing they used to say way back when,
where the FED would cut rates when the market was
in trouble and the economy was in trouble. Now they're
(25:31):
just cutting rates because they want to get ahead of it.
Speaker 4 (25:33):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
There's no judgment here right, wrong, up, down, left, right,
and it's nothing. I have nothing, no interest whatsoever giving
an opinion about you know, what I think the FED
should do or shouldn't do. That's not important to me.
What's important is a what does a FED do? But
what's more important how does the market react to it?
The next FED meeting is on September sixteenth and seventeen,
which is next week. So this think we have inflation.
(25:55):
Next week we have a FED meeting, So we'll see
if inflation comes in really hot jumps and it's really
a problem, that could cause the market to sell off
because that means it'll tighten the noose around the fence
neck to cut, it won't be able to cut as
much because remember the downside of cutting rates is higher inflation.
So if inflation tie and going up, the FED won't
(26:18):
be able to cut as much. And the market wants
to cut, and it wants a few cuts. Actually, if
inflation's down significantly, it gives a market a sigh of
relief because the FED can cut. Really, that's simple. So
lower inflation closer to two percent target, the more the
FED can cut. Higher inflation, the less the FED can
cut because the consequence of cutting rates is higher inflation.
(26:41):
So again, all that's the economic side of it. On
the investing side of it, how does the market react?
How does the market react? Market those up down or sideways?
That's super important. And news come out, you'll see futures
go up, the stock market up that day, go down
that day, sure, great, But is it up ten points
(27:04):
or is it up three percent? Is it up on
no vine excuse me? Or is it up on heavy volume?
And that's the next thing I want to discuss with you.
So again, the week ahead, We've got inflation this week
and a few big companies are reporting learnings. All right,
next week we have the FED meeting. Okay, the market's
near all time highs. Then as that one hundred the QQQ.
(27:26):
If we break out, the QQQ can breakout. Remember ETFs
can break out in disease, breakout the S and P
five hundred, the SPY or the DOW, the DA or
the small cap rustle two thousand, IWN all of these again,
just like a stock and ETF can break out and
break Some breakouts work, some breakouts fail, and that's okay.
(27:49):
That's also part of the process and being able to
navigate that. It's important because if I buy a breakout
and it fails the next day or even the same day, Look, Amazon,
this morning was a great breakout. By the close, it
ended below the pivot point or the breakout point. So
technically it wasn't really a breakout today because it closed
(28:10):
below that two thirty six fifty three pivot point. You're
at two thirty five eighty four. Today's close. Not ideal.
You have a close at two fifty or two forty,
two forty or two. You know, anything above that two
thirty six pivot great, especially if it doesn't heavy volume. Great,
But if not, all right, that tells me something. And
(28:34):
then if we start seeing a lot of those, oh okay,
now I'm listening other things. I look for with the
breakouts and stocks that are moving up on volume, which,
by the way, you can access again anywhere. These stocks
up on volume. They just sort it and then look
for breakouts yourself, which I did for years and years
and years manually is look for themes. When I find
stocks that are breaking out, what other stocks are moving
(28:57):
One that jumped out at me right at the open
today I found on breakouts and setups. I went, oh,
hold on a second year, Chinese stocks are pretty strong.
Net Teas and Tes another stock on breakouts instead of
dot Com broke out today. EPs rating is ninety seven,
composite rating is ninety five. Relative strength and rating is
eighty eight. Why I said, oh, let me go look
(29:18):
at FXI, which is the Chinese TF that's setting up
to break out. All right, let me go look at
other Chinese stocks. I looked at bay Do showed up
on the list today. Also, huge gap up one oh
five nineteen was a high from a while ago, and
volume and Baidu has been coming up really strong over
the last ten days or so. I think you've had
(29:40):
only one down day since the end of August. Since
August twenty first, every other day's been up and by
Do Bidu has a huge I mean it was up
six and a half percent today, already had a big
move up, but still big gap up today. Oh okay,
So I noticed by Do broke out. Let me go
look at some other Chinese stocks. T broke out, well,
(30:01):
net Te's was a big breakout, and I looked at Baidu.
They looked at Ali Baba baba, oh lo, and behold
that thing gapped up a few days ago, sat tight
for three or four or five days, two four days,
and then boom breaks out of a little three or
four day consolidation today, coming up the right side of
a big bass Ali Baba baba. All that came from
(30:21):
net T's and Tes. But then I did something. I said,
oh okay, what else is moving here? I know these
big Chinese stocks, I know the ETF, the FXI that
tracks a Chinese stock market. Let me go check them out.
A few days ago, I think it was last week, Tan, Tan,
Solar Eat stocks were just showing up on the list
(30:41):
left and right. I said, oh okay, let me go
look at Tan and Lo and behold Tan broke out,
Tans and ETF the track solar stocks. Okay, that was
on Friday. Got it Housing XHB. Same thing happened there.
I saw Toll Brothers Tol breakout. I think it was
Wednesday of last week or Thursday of last week. Yeah,
(31:05):
I think it was Thursday. Told Brothers broke out. And
then I looked at every other housing stock right away.
Caught my attention, Lennar l E. N Oh, that was
kind of edging out, Meritage Holmes MTh breaking out or
it broke out as well. This was a few last
week when I was looking at it, and so on
and so forth. And then I looked at the XHP,
the housing ETF and oh, here we go, that broke out.
(31:29):
Fed's gonna cut rates. Mortgage rates are coming down. Should
be good for homebuilders. I get it, simple theme, and again,
so on and so forth. The detective work kicks in,
finding stocks, putting the pieces together, all right, of connecting
dots up next, We've got a lot more to cover.
I'm adam sorry. And this is the one and only
investors A.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
You're listening to, Well, what are you waiting for? One
to ready go? We can't recall.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Pop and welcome once again to Investor's.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Edge in case you're just joining us for miss any
part of the show, you can go to gary k
dot com or wine Fast Forward at your convenience twenty
four seven, all for free on gary k dot com.
All right, so we spoke about the importance of listening
to the market week ahead, inflation's coming up this week.
Next week we have the Fed sprinkling a few companies
reporting earnings move and we spoke up breakouts, listening to
(33:04):
the market. Spoke about the three most important things and investing.
For me at least, it's entry, exit, and then risk.
Where am I going to enter or am I gonna
exit if I'm wrong? And how much are I risk
if I'm wrong? From entry? And then the risk the
other side is my overall portfolio. And that's where the
sizing comes in. In other words, if I have one
hundred thousand dollars portfolio, I risk one percent. If I
lose on this trade, I'll lose one thousand dollars Based
(33:25):
on that example, Okay, if I put a ten percent
stop below my entry, which is why. But if I'm
just giving you again simplifying to illustrate the point, Let's
say buy it at one hundred, my exit is at ninety,
then I can realize. Okay, if I'm gonna lose a
thousand dollars, I know I'm gonna buy one hundred chairs
because one hundred times ten is thousand. Okay, that's sizing, right.
If I want to take a bigger size, smaller risk,
(33:48):
you can do whatever you want obviously, but again just
trying to illustrate the point and make the help you
understand that, oh, the difference between entries, exits risk from
entry risk for your overall portfolio, so on and so forth.
So then we spoke about breakouts, how to listen to
the market, How does they focused laser focused on leaders
and leaders breaking out because there's lots of leaders, right,
(34:09):
I want to find the ones that were the markets
just compelling, Like a lab Alab right that moves higher
on heavy volume today breaks out. Okay, it's average volume.
There is five point six million shares today, you had
almost ten five point six is the average for a
lab alab today you have almost ten nine point five.
(34:29):
That's the big investors buying the stock net T's andtes
right or net E's Chinese stock. Okay, great, seven hundred
and thirty three thousand shares on average today you break
out to a new high on one point one million
shares again, average volume seventy three three seven hundred and
thirty two thousand. Today you broke out on one point
(34:50):
one four million shares, Not Aunt Mary, nucle Bob doing
the buying, like Gary says, right, and it broke above resistance.
In the last few months, every time that teas and
tes got above let's say one for every time got
near one forty one, it would sell off. It got
its high as one thirty nine sold off down, the
(35:11):
one twenty two, bounced again to one thirty eight, one
thirty seven, fell down to the fifty day moving average.
Finally today gaps up and does it on volume again.
That's the big institution's doing the buying. Now. If this
rolls right over tomorrow and fails, so be it. That's okay.
It could happen. But if it keeps going, hey, that's important.
Gold GLD another one that broke out. This was two
(35:34):
Fridays ago, a week and a half ago, whatever, it
was two four or five trading days ago and six
days ago, so let's go. I think it was two
Fridays ago, but not last Friday the friday before. But
either way, recently GLD. Look at a ticker symbol GLD.
It's gold broke out of a very nice long multi
month base going back to April Gold. Another thing to
do is sort by percent year to date change. So
(35:56):
I look for leaders. I want to sort them by
the strongest stocks. Strong is ETF's strongest markets up year
to date. Gold, I believe is up two times maybe
even three times the S and P five hundred this year.
In twenty twenty five, big rally move sideways for months
back into January. February rallied again to April, moves sideways
all the way up until August, and then boom broke out.
(36:18):
And now so far the breakout's working. I'm not going
to buy it up here. It's extended. But the day
it broke out, I want to see it. That's an
example of a good breakout. Now, let's see if it works.
Not it doesn't work, it could roll over and fail.
Who knows all I know right now, that's a good
example of a breakout that worked. And if the breakout fails,
let's say you know you're trading between I'm going to
(36:38):
create a hypothetical example here one hundred and one oh
five for six months. Every time it gets to one
oh five, that's called resistance, it sells off to one
hundred that's support, and then bounce into one oh five resistance.
Support is one hundred six months later. Finally one day
it breaks above one oh five on Monster volume. That
tells you it's not Aunt Mary, uncle, you know, Bob
doing the buying. So that's important because it tens. If that,
(37:01):
that's how all big stocks double and triple and quadruple
they would have to event. You know, just about every
stock I've ever studied broke out of a base, could
be a short base, a few days, base a few
weeks or a few months. But they break out, they
go sideways. Break out go sideways. And that's how we
got the expression the market takes the stairs up and
the elevator down stairs up, goes up sideways. That's a
stair goes up again, breaks out goes up sideways, breaks
(37:24):
out sideways, so on and so forth. So that's again
some of the things I look for up on volume.
This is a pretty much a free scanner. You can
do it anywhere that has price and charts, and it's
a free scanner. You just search stocks that are up
the most in any given day, sorted by price percent change,
and that again tells you if you have heavy volume
(37:46):
coming into that stock, even if it doesn't break out
that Oh okay, that's important. Something's happening right in that space.
Doesn't mean it has to keep going up, but something's
happening in space. And then I want to know, right, noted, Right.
I want to make sure I know, like Gary says, noted,
I want to make sure I know where the money's
(38:08):
flowing at any given time, because I want to be there.
I'm not going to catch them all. It's impossible. I
don't have to. That's a beauty of what we do.
You don't need to catch every single strong move ever.
I mean, it's just almost it's never gonna happen.
Speaker 3 (38:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
I don't say never often, but it's very, very difficult
for that to happen. But that's okay, you don't have to. Again,
just being able to stay focused is a superpower in
this business, in life too, so a few other ones
hood we spoke about that penalt heer other things. I
look for big rallies up and then pull backs into
the fifty eight moving average CPNNG. Another example, this one
(38:47):
broke the fifty, but had a big rally up from
nineteen to thirty one April to the summer, move sideways
for a few months, pulled in an undercut the fifty,
but moved sideways and then exploded higher today on volume.
This one I found by just looking at stocks moving
up on volume today. You know another one that's up
big today that just happened to jump out at me
(39:09):
SATs Ecostar SATs. It's not breaking out today, just up
on volume today. Sold Spectrum to Starlink for billions of dollars,
all right, to avoid some kind of government breakup or
whatever they were had going on. All right, noted right,
Casey's General Store CSY. Another stock goes up big on earning, sorry,
(39:29):
up big on volume today. I believe they report earnings
today as well. Casy up big on volume. Average volume
here is two hundred and sixty three thousand. They had
over a million shares today and it's kind of up
the right side. And they gapped up big back in June. Again,
it's just putting the pieces of the puzzle together build
(39:51):
a bear. BBW up eleven percent today, huge move up extended.
I'm not buying it right now now but I saw
it when I reported earnings a few weeks ago, and
then pull back and then boom took off. All right,
helps me put the pieces of the puzzle together, all right.
(40:13):
Believe that's all the time we have for today. As always,
I want to thank you very much for being here.
This is a great pleasure, and hopefully I'll speak to
you again soon. Take care of everybody.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Gary Kultbom on biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
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