Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And well once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary kolbaumb
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen, Happy that you are listening.
It is Friday, It is September fifth, twenty twenty five.
Hope you have a good day. Hope you're all going
to have a good weekend. As always, lots the cover
(00:32):
and sometimes our lots the cover is based on the
emails we get, and today we got quite the few
on one subject, and we will get to it in
a couple of minutes. In case you don't know, this
is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do markets,
the economy, your job, your industry, the job market, and
(00:58):
everything else that matter. And if you do not get
this radio show in your city, we'll post it at
Gary k dot com, walst post on our x feed
and the podcast apps in the biz tv YouTube channel.
And if you'd like to email me, just be nice.
All you gotta do is be nice. We'll be nice back. Well,
(01:26):
So every now and then something perks up and we
get a bunch of emails on one subject, and today
was the job market. So I guess you all are
watching things closely and watching the tube or listening to
(01:48):
the radio, that the job's number came in pitifully very poor.
And it's not just this number. The tree jectory has
been slower and softer. And you already know this because
we have been telling you it's been softer out there.
To what extent, We're not sure, Yeah, you never know.
(02:14):
But I want to put a few things to you,
and we're going to be blunt as usual and probably
piss off some people because you know, you got one
side that loves this side and the other side that
loves this side. And as we told you, we don't
give a crap about sides. We give a crap about policy,
and we give a crap about outcome. And I don't
(02:37):
know why more people don't do what we do, and
that is get away from the love and the personality.
You know, I know we love our bands and certain
actors and actresses and certain celebrities and certain restaurants and
the type of food you like. You really shouldn't be
(02:58):
loving leaders that have taken us the thirty seven trillion
of debt and are guaranteeing two trillion in deficits every
year going forward. You should be caring about policy, and
it's okay to like some policies, love some policies, and
hate other policies. But know what we have. Unfortunately, and
(03:23):
not everybody.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Is just.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
No matter what, we are going to take that person's side,
and what we're just trying to tell you is no,
it should not be that way. So jobs have been
going south, and here's a few thoughts for you. Agree
(03:50):
or disagree. Hey, it's our opinion. So as you know,
the President fired the woman who was running the Bureau
of Labor Statistics person on the last job's number was
very weak and said the numbers were rigged. Well, the
numbers were not rigged. That was a lie. That is
(04:10):
a president being upset about a job's number. I can
tell you we loathe the president on something like that,
but there's not much we can do about it. Another job.
He replaced that woman with somebody else. Well, another job's
number came out, and before it came out, the White
(04:33):
House actually made a statement about the way the numbers
are being done. And they were making excuses already knew
the job's number would be poor, and it was. It
was weak. Revisions have been weak. Also. The President has
(04:53):
been out and trying to defend it. They had what's
his name, Kevin Hassett out and I gotta tell you
they got to stop wee weaning down our back and
telling us it's raining today. Said the number was bad
(05:15):
because of the Bureau Labor statistics. That's the new thing.
Everybody's screwing them. Everybody's rigging the numbers. Everybody's trying to
make them look bad. Know, the job market is soft,
And instead of blaming others, maybe just maybe they should
(05:36):
look to themselves and maybe some of the things they're
doing are not very smart. Maybe just maybe you see,
we have been telling you that the tariffs we're gonna
(05:58):
have a negative effect because they are tax hikes. And
every time they come out and say we collected twenty
five billion this month, brought in twenty five No, they
did not bring in twenty five billion dollars. We paid taxes.
(06:22):
And due to the fact the administration has said all
along and promoted themselves on tax cuts that tax cuts
are good, tax hikes are bad. Well, why are they
hiking taxes? Interesting. Huh, think about that. So we've been
(06:45):
telling you they're not good. Tax hikes will have a
dampening effect on the economy. Of course they're blaming j
Powell for not lowering rates, but as we have told you,
J Powell's maybe a half point behind it. If he
dropped a half point, it's not going to create a job.
It would be a no big deal thing. So blame
(07:09):
everybody else but yourself. And we're just letting you know.
It is our opinion that it is a lot of
the tariffs do in the job, softening things up, having companies, businesses, big, small, medium,
(07:30):
Why would I hire? I don't know what my expenses
are going to be next week, next month, in a
year from now, So I've got to take a step back.
And yet maybe AI could be part of this. I
don't think so. Really though, I think AI is going
to create jobs. So the number was soft. I believe
(07:59):
we're through I'm sort of a cycle at this point.
But huge tax hikes have a dampening effect. And for
all of you that love the man, maybe you want
to message him and say to him, well, they railed
against Kamala Harris wanting to raise taxes on everything. Why
are you raising taxes on everything? And to be clear,
(08:21):
that's exactly what they're doing. And then there's the other
part of the tariffs. The other part the constant changing
of the numbers, the countries and the products, constant when
(08:45):
you have a moment. There are websites that actually have
all the movements. It's almost insanity. And it's not just trade.
It's because he likes or dislikes Brazil fifty percent, because
(09:07):
they're mean to the ex president. That's insanity. India because
they're buying oil from somebody he doesn't like. It's insanity.
And when he puts a tariff on he's putting a
tax on you. Well, wait a minute, I'm not paying.
It's the company. Maybe the consumer gets passed on to it. Oh,
(09:30):
it's all of us. Because of the dampening effect of
the economy. We have said to you on this show
under no in certain terms, we hope we're wrong. We
want to be wrong. We said to you the other day,
we'd love to be a year from now out. They
collected what two hundred and fifty billion in tariffs and
(09:52):
we're growing three and a half percent, and we're two
hundred thousand jobs being created every month. We love that.
I'll be glad to come out on this show and
say the I was wrong, But the history of big
tax hikes, it's a dampening effect. And by the way,
(10:14):
this is inclusive on the maniacal two trillion dollar deficits
that this president's now going to run and had a
chance to do something about. So there's my answer to
all the emails. And it was a rough day for
some things, but not such a rough day for others.
(10:36):
We'll explain up next on this The one only Investor's Edge. Hi,
(11:02):
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Speaker 1 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells where.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You're listening to. Okay, it could be fun Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
The last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called Bob. It doesn't get better than.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
This and well once again to Investor's Edge. So before
we get into numbers, let's narrow it down. Let's narrow
(12:44):
it down. You're a business that it's not a gargantuan business,
not a megacap business, but you're a business that does
twenty five million million dollars a year. And what do
you do. Let me pick out a one product company. Uh,
(13:08):
you sell snow globes. Snow globes, and these snow globes
are not making the made in the United States. Nobody
makes snow globes in the Nice States. By the way,
we're making that part up. I don't know. We're just
giving you an example. So I have to get my
(13:31):
snow globes from Norway, and I've been paying for each
snow globe uh ten bucks, and then I have to
pay for shipping, insurance, people to unpack, and my total
(14:00):
cost is fifteen and I sell those snow globes. How
about twenty two? Actually I doubt snow globes at twenty
two bucks, but we're doing this as an example. Well,
what happens if there's a twenty five percent tariff? Well,
(14:29):
the company that buys these things for ten bucks now
buys them for ten bucks and then says two sends
two dollars and fifty cents to our treasury as attacks
on each snow globe. What does that do to that business? Well,
(14:56):
you may buy less. You have to get rid of
a few people because you're not making as much money.
You're gonna try and figure out how to make them
here so you don't have to pay the tariffs. But
that always takes time. Right, You're gonna try and talk
(15:17):
to your supplier, Hey, will you do us a favor?
Can you eat a buck of that? And that supplier
may or may not say, okay, And then what happens,
just for the sake of whatever, The President gets mad
(15:40):
at the King of Norway and now it says fifty
percent tariffs. Well, all of a sudden, you are paying
five bucks each, snow glow. Why would you stay in
business if you're not really making any money? But then
(16:03):
the President changes his mind three weeks later and goes
back to twenty five. Please, miss the president, stop, can
you just tell me what the number is? And then
he goes down to ten. Oh, thank you, mister president. Oh,
then he goes back up to twenty five. There's my
(16:25):
example for you, and that is a fair assessment about
what's been going on since April. Oh but Gary, the
market's been going up terrific. You know why, because America
is fantastic. Everybody's working hard to do well for themselves
and their families. Doesn't the president get credit for that? Well,
(16:46):
as my father always said, who's ever running the show
gets the credit? So yeah, okay, the president gets the
credit for that, fine and dandy, But what about the
job market. Because to be clear, if the job market
continues to wane, the economy will continue to wane. If
(17:11):
the economy continues to wane, consumer spending will wane. If
that occurs, profits will wane, and then the economy can
get into some trouble. We're not saying that's going to happen.
We're just outlining things for you because just this week,
(17:35):
just last night, the President said something about tariffs on semiconductors,
and frankly, I thought that was already out there. So
(17:56):
I don't know what to tell you. That's story, it's
a fair assessment. I'm rooting for him. I'm gonna try
and get in touch with them and get to sit
down with him, as I do believe I am one
(18:17):
of the pre eminent smart people on these tariffs, and
he should be listening to me and this whole thing
about this whole thing about Oh and this is what
(18:38):
the President said, if they don't let me tariff the world,
we're going to become a third world country. Now we
know that's a lie, it's hyperbole. We expect that from
the lefty nuts, we don't want that from the Republican side.
(18:59):
But that's what the president, and it's said this week,
and I'm quoting him, and to be clear that sheer insanity. Yeah,
third world country. Another words again, don't we weed down
my back and tell me it's raining. Will never be
a third world country unless you terrify us to death.
(19:24):
That's my take. And I am going to try to
get a sit down with this administration. I don't know
if it's the president or maybe I can get something
with the UH Treasury Secretary. We'll see. And I'm serious
about that because I have news fea. These are unforced errors.
(19:49):
They're unforced errors. They're absolutely unforced errors. They are not
a necessity in any way, shape or form. And that's
(20:10):
my big take. Now, the market made a very nice
accounting of itself. Yeah, I'm gonna tell you the Dow
was down two twenty. Yeah, I'm gonna tell you the
banks were weak, But the market made a very good
accounting for itself. Besides a few areas, some retail was weak,
(20:36):
travel was weak. But up next we'll talk to you
about what was it weak. This is the one only investor's.
Speaker 4 (20:44):
Edge you're listening to. America is talking fallowing investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
He's gotta be with the crowd. Is just on his.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
Feet here said on a boy with Gary called Bob.
Speaker 5 (21:23):
I'm highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you talk
to him and.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Walk once again to investor's edge. How about that for
a big dissertation. And by the way, Walmart's been raising prices.
Prices are going up in different things, and it may
not show up in the inflation numbers because I believe
(22:05):
real inflation comes from the Central Bank via J Powell.
You know what he did. We'll keep you a prized anyway.
So the banks were weak, yields were way down. Why
(22:29):
would the banks be weak. The only thing I can
come up with is that if the long yields come down,
the less they can lend at higher yields. That's my
That's what I think. Not one hundred percent sure, but
that's a good one plus one equals two. Insurance stocks
were down, Transports were mixed. But let me tell you
(22:52):
the strength because the ten year yield dropped a four
point eight six today, which is good news, and prices
dropped over buck good news. Interest rate sensitive, the housing,
the housing related. We've been telling you about that every
single day. They were in a bear market until a
(23:12):
few months ago, and once the interest rates started getting
a little bit better, and once the thought of the
Fed finally well, they have been doing nothing but doing
the opposite what it did for good six seven, eight months.
So the housing related and not just the home builders,
(23:35):
but a floor and decre pool, ink, restoration, hardware, home depot,
those types. What else did well, Well, you've got to
go back to earnings. Broadcom finished up twenty eight today
though it was up fifty, so off the highs. But
(23:58):
I don't see that as much of a big deal.
It's a good move, and I guess they said something
about how many so the equipment makers that got hit
so hard because Applied Materials strong today ASML up twenty eight,
they got upgraded. Applied Materials, the weakest of the rest,
(24:20):
up four and a half to one. Sixty two. KLAC
that got trashed up thirty two today. By the way,
yesterday was up thirty four, so sixty six bucks in
two days, about seven percent. And Lamb Research Micron was
(24:46):
up bus seven today, Taiwan Semi up eight, so guess
what the semiconductors did. Boom shot back up above the
fifty day moving average of import, so that was good
off of broad Com. You also had these electronic manufacture
(25:08):
whatever whatever, and that's because of something Broadcom said about
what needs are and stuff. Celestica opened up thirty six
bucks today to two point fifty seven, finished only up
twenty one, but still a good move, Still a good move.
(25:28):
And then you had recent names that we told you
were setting up well. Reddit, CRDO and others all had
a pretty good day today. And you know I haven't
mentioned these, and I probably should have. Hospital stocks HCA
(25:56):
breaks out to a new yearly high today, Tenant Healthcare
THC new yearly high today. United Health not as strong
a universal health Excuse me, So let's talk about so
the hospitals. You had some better action today in some
(26:18):
economically sensitive Wait a minute, If the job market's weak,
how is economically sensitive? How is home depot interest rates
coming down? They really are a defining force. Notice, i'd
even say J Powell, the ten year yield has been
coming down nicely in the last few days, and you
(26:43):
can bet your bottom dollar the Fed will be cutting rates.
What is it September seventeenth? And may I say, who
knows maybe a half and gets love easy money? Markets
(27:06):
love easy money unless we're in a protracted contraction, which
we're not. We're gonna slow down now. GDP may be
better than the job market, but government spending. Do not
forget that this administration had one hell of a chance
(27:30):
to do something about Biden and his ridiculous government spending,
and this administration gave us that certain finger. And we
have told you that before, and that is unfortunate also,
But that doesn't surprise me as much. And yeah, it
pisses me off, but I can't be that pissed off
(27:51):
because it's expected. Politicians love big government because it helps
out GDP, and that's something There are not going to
be any heroes. We'll go to fifty trillion and sixty trillion.
When I'm dead, we'll be at one hundred trillion. Where
and when it blows up, I don't know. I would
(28:13):
have thought it blow up at twenty trillion. I would
have thought it would have blown up at twenty five trillion,
thirty trillion, thirty five trillion. We're at thirty seven and
we are going up fast. What did I tell you yesterday? Yeah?
Speaker 6 (28:30):
Here it is.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
This is from August twenty fifth. Over the last forty
eight days, the federal debt has surged one trillion dollars
or twenty one billion per day.
Speaker 6 (28:41):
Yep, yep, yep, yep.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
But the market don't care. So even with the Dow
down to twenty today, I thought it was I thought
it was an except for the banks. Gold another strong day,
full blown bullish phase in gold, and I said two
days ago, probably gonna pull back. It lasted a day.
(29:19):
And why would gold go up today? Because his interest
rates go down, the dollar gets weak, and as the
dollar gets weak, gold goes up. And that was the
story of today. But I want to repeat something, considering
the banks were crappy, considering that the underbelly not bad,
(29:44):
notwithstanding the few areas that were not that great, and
that was the story. We're in quieter earning season. September
has not been so bad. I was impressed today by
some stocks that were down big early that finished better
(30:07):
by the end of the day. The growth arena looks okay.
It was actually a pretty good day for the growth arena.
And by the way, things were much worse early. Market
(30:29):
opened hot, much worse early. The Doubt at one point
today forty five to eleven to two was down about
four hundred. The Nasdaq at one time today you ready
for this, twenty one five, three four was down one
seventy finished only down seven. So I'm definitely not a bear.
(30:52):
And these growth names are really setting up well. And
these housing related names. Go look at simple Pool today,
not a leader, but look at two days up off
of two days down of the ten year yield. Go
look at Restoration hard Hardware two days up from two
(31:18):
days down of the ten year yield. Go look at
the x AHEB and the ITB. That's the housing related.
Look at those two things up off of yields down,
Simple Story up next? What else we got for I'm Gary,
(31:40):
this is the one only investor's edge.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
You're listening to.
Speaker 6 (32:16):
What are you waiting for?
Speaker 4 (32:18):
One?
Speaker 2 (32:19):
To ready.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
Investors?
Speaker 2 (32:25):
We can't recalled Bob and well once again to investor's edge.
(33:02):
Can we have a week job market without recession contraction?
Speaker 6 (33:08):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Not two week. The consumer, they say, is like seventy
some odd percent of the economy. Guess what happens when
people lose jobs with their spending. They tend to spend less.
(33:33):
So that'll be something of note as we go forward.
But I just want to make a point again of
what we've told you. We don't have TDS. We have
complemented him on many things, and we wish him well
(33:56):
and we want him to do great things my own rules.
Higher taxes is not a good thing. A few other notes, Well,
(34:16):
it's in real time. I am being told that possibly
Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City, who's up
for reelection, And there's all this worry about who's gonna
(34:44):
run New York City. And normally I wouldn't talk about
a mayoral election, but it is. New York City has
an announcement to make. I guess he's gonna make it
sometime this afternoon. We're expecting the announcement to be he's
gonna drop out of the election in order to help
somebody else win. And he supposedly cuts some sort of
(35:06):
deal with the administration on an ambassadorship or something like
that in order to get out. When you have a chance,
go look at that news. That's interesting. Let me be clear,
you can't have a communist run New York City. And
(35:30):
to be clear, not only as a communist, he's a
con artist. His whole campaign is a lie. He's now
telling you all these things that he's not. His whole
life has been based on certain principles, and all of
a sudden he is dropping all those principles in advance
of his campaign can't have that, not in New York City.
(35:58):
So I'm watching that very closely because I repeat it's
New York City. Going into next week, there's just a
slew of growth stocks setting up. And I am emboldened
(36:22):
by the semiconductors as a whole getting back above the
fifty day and a very strong move today in something
like a micron a Taiwan Semiconductor. Not saying we're buying them,
but in order to go higher, as we have said
to you, certain things have to happen. Number one is
(36:46):
you gotta get back above the fifty day moving average,
and they did it well and with strength. Also some
of these contract manufacturers I mentioned cls, there are others
very very strong. So in spite of what happened today
(37:09):
with banks with MasterCard and Visa, the transports are still
blair as well as some other areas. I think there's
opportunity going into the end of the year. And I
say this with Microsoft kind of breaking down, and Video
(37:37):
kind of breaking down, and video and video and the
semiconductors were strong today. Yeah, we'll be watching. I've always
wondered for the last months, who's going to come after
Nvidia and how much they do and how much they make.
(37:59):
In this talk, there's actual talk that others are having inroads.
We'll see other names. Were watching Apple and Google off
of that news, not just really the news, but the
reaction was pretty darn good. Ali Baba certainly wasn't the earnings,
(38:22):
but they said they had some sort of AI chip
and the market reacted. Well, we're gonna be watching that
in the weeks ahead. And just overall, not a ton
of things breaking down as of yet. Wary of some areas,
(38:42):
weary of some stocks, wary of some places. But interest
rates coming down, and central banks are lowering rates big time.
I'd heard seventy five of them around the globe and
we're up next. And as we've repeated to you thousands
(39:06):
of times, normally, if you're not going into a contraction
or recession, lower rates won't hurt the market. If anything changes,
we will let you know. Small caps another good day
(39:33):
drifting higher. Lower interest rates leave no doubt there is
your story, and we will be harping on them going forward,
and we'll let you know if we get an audience
with anybody in the administration. I will not use my
(39:57):
title of Fox News Business contributor I'll just try to
make some inroads and see if I can at least
get to speak to somebody, because I can help that.
All said, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully when
you get home, do like I do, quite simple. Make
sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better, You will feel better. I promise
(40:18):
they will be well until Monday. Have a good night.
Speaker 6 (40:22):
Bye bye.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Garycultbomb on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
Investor's Edge with Gary Cultbomb, straight talk about you and
your money now from the Biz Talk Studios. Here is
Gary Cultbomb.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
And well once again to Investor's Edge. I'm Gary kolbaumb
your host day. Thanks for being with us today. Glad
you here, ladies and gentlemen, Happy that you are listening.
It is Friday, It is September fifth, twenty twenty five.
Hope you have a good day. Hope you're all going
to have a good weekend. As always, lots the cover
(00:32):
and sometimes our lots the cover is based on the
emails we get, and today we got quite the few
on one subject, and we will get to it in
a couple of minutes. In case you don't know, this
is serious talk on everything that affects you. We'll do markets,
the economy, your job, your industry, the job market, and
(00:58):
everything else that matter. And if you do not get
this radio show in your city, we'll post it at
Gary k dot com, walst post on our x feed
and the podcast apps in the biz tv YouTube channel.
And if you'd like to email me, just be nice.
All you gotta do is be nice. We'll be nice back. Well,
(01:26):
So every now and then something perks up and we
get a bunch of emails on one subject, and today
was the job market. So I guess you all are
watching things closely and watching the tube or listening to
(01:48):
the radio, that the job's number came in pitifully very poor.
And it's not just this number. The tree jectory has
been slower and softer. And you already know this because
we have been telling you it's been softer out there.
To what extent, We're not sure, Yeah, you never know.
(02:14):
But I want to put a few things to you,
and we're going to be blunt as usual and probably
piss off some people because you know, you got one
side that loves this side and the other side that
loves this side. And as we told you, we don't
give a crap about sides. We give a crap about policy,
and we give a crap about outcome. And I don't
(02:37):
know why more people don't do what we do, and
that is get away from the love and the personality.
You know, I know we love our bands and certain
actors and actresses and certain celebrities and certain restaurants and
the type of food you like. You really shouldn't be
(02:58):
loving leaders that have taken us the thirty seven trillion
of debt and are guaranteeing two trillion in deficits every
year going forward. You should be caring about policy, and
it's okay to like some policies, love some policies, and
hate other policies. But know what we have. Unfortunately, and
(03:23):
not everybody.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Is just.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
No matter what, we are going to take that person's side,
and what we're just trying to tell you is no,
it should not be that way. So jobs have been
going south, and here's a few thoughts for you. Agree
(03:50):
or disagree. Hey, it's our opinion. So as you know,
the President fired the woman who was running the Bureau
of Labor Statistics person on the last job's number was
very weak and said the numbers were rigged. Well, the
numbers were not rigged. That was a lie. That is
(04:10):
a president being upset about a job's number. I can
tell you we loathe the president on something like that,
but there's not much we can do about it. Another job.
He replaced that woman with somebody else. Well, another job's
number came out, and before it came out, the White
(04:33):
House actually made a statement about the way the numbers
are being done. And they were making excuses already knew
the job's number would be poor, and it was. It
was weak. Revisions have been weak. Also. The President has
(04:53):
been out and trying to defend it. They had what's
his name, Kevin Hassett out and I gotta tell you
they got to stop wee weaning down our back and
telling us it's raining today. Said the number was bad
(05:15):
because of the Bureau Labor statistics. That's the new thing.
Everybody's screwing them. Everybody's rigging the numbers. Everybody's trying to
make them look bad. Know, the job market is soft,
And instead of blaming others, maybe just maybe they should
(05:36):
look to themselves and maybe some of the things they're
doing are not very smart. Maybe just maybe you see,
we have been telling you that the tariffs we're gonna
(05:58):
have a negative effect because they are tax hikes. And
every time they come out and say we collected twenty
five billion this month, brought in twenty five No, they
did not bring in twenty five billion dollars. We paid taxes.
(06:22):
And due to the fact the administration has said all
along and promoted themselves on tax cuts that tax cuts
are good, tax hikes are bad. Well, why are they
hiking taxes? Interesting. Huh, think about that. So we've been
(06:45):
telling you they're not good. Tax hikes will have a
dampening effect on the economy. Of course they're blaming j
Powell for not lowering rates, but as we have told you,
J Powell's maybe a half point behind it. If he
dropped a half point, it's not going to create a job.
It would be a no big deal thing. So blame
(07:09):
everybody else but yourself. And we're just letting you know.
It is our opinion that it is a lot of
the tariffs do in the job, softening things up, having companies, businesses, big, small, medium,
(07:30):
Why would I hire? I don't know what my expenses
are going to be next week, next month, in a
year from now, So I've got to take a step back.
And yet maybe AI could be part of this. I
don't think so. Really though, I think AI is going
to create jobs. So the number was soft. I believe
(07:59):
we're through I'm sort of a cycle at this point.
But huge tax hikes have a dampening effect. And for
all of you that love the man, maybe you want
to message him and say to him, well, they railed
against Kamala Harris wanting to raise taxes on everything. Why
are you raising taxes on everything? And to be clear,
(08:21):
that's exactly what they're doing. And then there's the other
part of the tariffs. The other part the constant changing
of the numbers, the countries and the products, constant when
(08:45):
you have a moment. There are websites that actually have
all the movements. It's almost insanity. And it's not just trade.
It's because he likes or dislikes Brazil fifty percent, because
(09:07):
they're mean to the ex president. That's insanity. India because
they're buying oil from somebody he doesn't like. It's insanity.
And when he puts a tariff on he's putting a
tax on you. Well, wait a minute, I'm not paying.
It's the company. Maybe the consumer gets passed on to it. Oh,
(09:30):
it's all of us. Because of the dampening effect of
the economy. We have said to you on this show
under no in certain terms, we hope we're wrong. We
want to be wrong. We said to you the other day,
we'd love to be a year from now out. They
collected what two hundred and fifty billion in tariffs and
(09:52):
we're growing three and a half percent, and we're two
hundred thousand jobs being created every month. We love that.
I'll be glad to come out on this show and
say the I was wrong, But the history of big
tax hikes, it's a dampening effect. And by the way,
(10:14):
this is inclusive on the maniacal two trillion dollar deficits
that this president's now going to run and had a
chance to do something about. So there's my answer to
all the emails. And it was a rough day for
some things, but not such a rough day for others.
(10:36):
We'll explain up next on this The one only Investor's Edge. Hi,
(11:02):
I'm Gary Kolbaum, hosted a nationally syndicated radio show, Investor's Edge.
We're not just handsome radio people. We manage investors' money
for a living, specializing in fee based discretionary money management.
No big commissions, just a fee on the assets that's managed.
We also provide a full range of personalized services, including
retirement planning, fixed income, and educational needs, all to assist
(11:25):
you in achieving your financial goals. Understanding not all individuals
have the same needs, will carefully evaluate your personal goals
to determine a proper investment strategy. If your current approach
to investing is not getting you to where you would
like to be.
Speaker 3 (11:40):
Call us to make an appointment for a complementary portfolio review.
The number to call is eight eight eight four two
two five five five nine. That's eight eight eight four
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Investment advisory services offer through Call Capital Management.
Speaker 1 (12:05):
It's time to switch on the integrator units and to
get the brain cells where.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
You're listening to. Okay, it could be fun Investor's Edge.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
The last bastion of quality programming.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
With Gary called Bob. It doesn't get better than.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
This and well once again to Investor's Edge. So before
we get into numbers, let's narrow it down. Let's narrow
(12:44):
it down. You're a business that it's not a gargantuan business,
not a megacap business, but you're a business that does
twenty five million million dollars a year. And what do
you do. Let me pick out a one product company. Uh,
(13:08):
you sell snow globes. Snow globes, and these snow globes
are not making the made in the United States. Nobody
makes snow globes in the Nice States. By the way,
we're making that part up. I don't know. We're just
giving you an example. So I have to get my
(13:31):
snow globes from Norway, and I've been paying for each
snow globe uh ten bucks, and then I have to
pay for shipping, insurance, people to unpack, and my total
(14:00):
cost is fifteen and I sell those snow globes. How
about twenty two? Actually I doubt snow globes at twenty
two bucks, but we're doing this as an example. Well,
what happens if there's a twenty five percent tariff? Well,
(14:29):
the company that buys these things for ten bucks now
buys them for ten bucks and then says two sends
two dollars and fifty cents to our treasury as attacks
on each snow globe. What does that do to that business? Well,
(14:56):
you may buy less. You have to get rid of
a few people because you're not making as much money.
You're gonna try and figure out how to make them
here so you don't have to pay the tariffs. But
that always takes time. Right, You're gonna try and talk
(15:17):
to your supplier, Hey, will you do us a favor?
Can you eat a buck of that? And that supplier
may or may not say, okay, And then what happens,
just for the sake of whatever, The President gets mad
(15:40):
at the King of Norway and now it says fifty
percent tariffs. Well, all of a sudden, you are paying
five bucks each, snow glow. Why would you stay in
business if you're not really making any money? But then
(16:03):
the President changes his mind three weeks later and goes
back to twenty five. Please, miss the president, stop, can
you just tell me what the number is? And then
he goes down to ten. Oh, thank you, mister president. Oh,
then he goes back up to twenty five. There's my
(16:25):
example for you, and that is a fair assessment about
what's been going on since April. Oh but Gary, the
market's been going up terrific. You know why, because America
is fantastic. Everybody's working hard to do well for themselves
and their families. Doesn't the president get credit for that? Well,
(16:46):
as my father always said, who's ever running the show
gets the credit? So yeah, okay, the president gets the
credit for that, fine and dandy, But what about the
job market. Because to be clear, if the job market
continues to wane, the economy will continue to wane. If
(17:11):
the economy continues to wane, consumer spending will wane. If
that occurs, profits will wane, and then the economy can
get into some trouble. We're not saying that's going to happen.
We're just outlining things for you because just this week,
(17:35):
just last night, the President said something about tariffs on semiconductors,
and frankly, I thought that was already out there. So
(17:56):
I don't know what to tell you. That's story, it's
a fair assessment. I'm rooting for him. I'm gonna try
and get in touch with them and get to sit
down with him, as I do believe I am one
(18:17):
of the pre eminent smart people on these tariffs, and
he should be listening to me and this whole thing
about this whole thing about Oh and this is what
(18:38):
the President said, if they don't let me tariff the world,
we're going to become a third world country. Now we
know that's a lie, it's hyperbole. We expect that from
the lefty nuts, we don't want that from the Republican side.
(18:59):
But that's what the president, and it's said this week,
and I'm quoting him, and to be clear that sheer insanity. Yeah,
third world country. Another words again, don't we weed down
my back and tell me it's raining. Will never be
a third world country unless you terrify us to death.
(19:24):
That's my take. And I am going to try to
get a sit down with this administration. I don't know
if it's the president or maybe I can get something
with the UH Treasury Secretary. We'll see. And I'm serious
about that because I have news fea. These are unforced errors.
(19:49):
They're unforced errors. They're absolutely unforced errors. They are not
a necessity in any way, shape or form. And that's
(20:10):
my big take. Now, the market made a very nice
accounting of itself. Yeah, I'm gonna tell you the Dow
was down two twenty. Yeah, I'm gonna tell you the
banks were weak, But the market made a very good
accounting for itself. Besides a few areas, some retail was weak,
(20:36):
travel was weak. But up next we'll talk to you
about what was it weak. This is the one only investor's.
Speaker 4 (20:44):
Edge you're listening to. America is talking fallowing investor's edge.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
He's gotta be with the crowd. Is just on his.
Speaker 1 (21:19):
Feet here said on a boy with Gary called Bob.
Speaker 5 (21:23):
I'm highly recommended. You're gonna feel better if you talk
to him and.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Walk once again to investor's edge. How about that for
a big dissertation. And by the way, Walmart's been raising prices.
Prices are going up in different things, and it may
not show up in the inflation numbers because I believe
(22:05):
real inflation comes from the Central Bank via J Powell.
You know what he did. We'll keep you a prized anyway.
So the banks were weak, yields were way down. Why
(22:29):
would the banks be weak. The only thing I can
come up with is that if the long yields come down,
the less they can lend at higher yields. That's my
That's what I think. Not one hundred percent sure, but
that's a good one plus one equals two. Insurance stocks
were down, Transports were mixed. But let me tell you
(22:52):
the strength because the ten year yield dropped a four
point eight six today, which is good news, and prices
dropped over buck good news. Interest rate sensitive, the housing,
the housing related. We've been telling you about that every
single day. They were in a bear market until a
(23:12):
few months ago, and once the interest rates started getting
a little bit better, and once the thought of the
Fed finally well, they have been doing nothing but doing
the opposite what it did for good six seven, eight months.
So the housing related and not just the home builders,
(23:35):
but a floor and decre pool, ink, restoration, hardware, home depot,
those types. What else did well, Well, you've got to
go back to earnings. Broadcom finished up twenty eight today
though it was up fifty, so off the highs. But
(23:58):
I don't see that as much of a big deal.
It's a good move, and I guess they said something
about how many so the equipment makers that got hit
so hard because Applied Materials strong today ASML up twenty eight,
they got upgraded. Applied Materials, the weakest of the rest,
(24:20):
up four and a half to one. Sixty two. KLAC
that got trashed up thirty two today. By the way,
yesterday was up thirty four, so sixty six bucks in
two days, about seven percent. And Lamb Research Micron was
(24:46):
up bus seven today, Taiwan Semi up eight, so guess
what the semiconductors did. Boom shot back up above the
fifty day moving average of import, so that was good
off of broad Com. You also had these electronic manufacture
(25:08):
whatever whatever, and that's because of something Broadcom said about
what needs are and stuff. Celestica opened up thirty six
bucks today to two point fifty seven, finished only up
twenty one, but still a good move, Still a good move.
(25:28):
And then you had recent names that we told you
were setting up well. Reddit, CRDO and others all had
a pretty good day today. And you know I haven't
mentioned these, and I probably should have. Hospital stocks HCA
(25:56):
breaks out to a new yearly high today, Tenant Healthcare
THC new yearly high today. United Health not as strong
a universal health Excuse me, So let's talk about so
the hospitals. You had some better action today in some
(26:18):
economically sensitive Wait a minute, If the job market's weak,
how is economically sensitive? How is home depot interest rates
coming down? They really are a defining force. Notice, i'd
even say J Powell, the ten year yield has been
coming down nicely in the last few days, and you
(26:43):
can bet your bottom dollar the Fed will be cutting rates.
What is it September seventeenth? And may I say, who
knows maybe a half and gets love easy money? Markets
(27:06):
love easy money unless we're in a protracted contraction, which
we're not. We're gonna slow down now. GDP may be
better than the job market, but government spending. Do not
forget that this administration had one hell of a chance
(27:30):
to do something about Biden and his ridiculous government spending,
and this administration gave us that certain finger. And we
have told you that before, and that is unfortunate also,
But that doesn't surprise me as much. And yeah, it
pisses me off, but I can't be that pissed off
(27:51):
because it's expected. Politicians love big government because it helps
out GDP, and that's something There are not going to
be any heroes. We'll go to fifty trillion and sixty trillion.
When I'm dead, we'll be at one hundred trillion. Where
and when it blows up, I don't know. I would
(28:13):
have thought it blow up at twenty trillion. I would
have thought it would have blown up at twenty five trillion,
thirty trillion, thirty five trillion. We're at thirty seven and
we are going up fast. What did I tell you yesterday? Yeah?
Speaker 6 (28:30):
Here it is.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
This is from August twenty fifth. Over the last forty
eight days, the federal debt has surged one trillion dollars
or twenty one billion per day.
Speaker 6 (28:41):
Yep, yep, yep, yep.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
But the market don't care. So even with the Dow
down to twenty today, I thought it was I thought
it was an except for the banks. Gold another strong day,
full blown bullish phase in gold, and I said two
days ago, probably gonna pull back. It lasted a day.
(29:19):
And why would gold go up today? Because his interest
rates go down, the dollar gets weak, and as the
dollar gets weak, gold goes up. And that was the
story of today. But I want to repeat something, considering
the banks were crappy, considering that the underbelly not bad,
(29:44):
notwithstanding the few areas that were not that great, and
that was the story. We're in quieter earning season. September
has not been so bad. I was impressed today by
some stocks that were down big early that finished better
(30:07):
by the end of the day. The growth arena looks okay.
It was actually a pretty good day for the growth arena.
And by the way, things were much worse early. Market
(30:29):
opened hot, much worse early. The Doubt at one point
today forty five to eleven to two was down about
four hundred. The Nasdaq at one time today you ready
for this, twenty one five, three four was down one
seventy finished only down seven. So I'm definitely not a bear.
(30:52):
And these growth names are really setting up well. And
these housing related names. Go look at simple Pool today,
not a leader, but look at two days up off
of two days down of the ten year yield. Go
look at Restoration hard Hardware two days up from two
(31:18):
days down of the ten year yield. Go look at
the x AHEB and the ITB. That's the housing related.
Look at those two things up off of yields down,
Simple Story up next? What else we got for I'm Gary,
(31:40):
this is the one only investor's edge.
Speaker 4 (32:14):
You're listening to.
Speaker 6 (32:16):
What are you waiting for?
Speaker 4 (32:18):
One?
Speaker 2 (32:19):
To ready.
Speaker 4 (32:22):
Investors?
Speaker 2 (32:25):
We can't recalled Bob and well once again to investor's edge.
(33:02):
Can we have a week job market without recession contraction?
Speaker 6 (33:08):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Not two week. The consumer, they say, is like seventy
some odd percent of the economy. Guess what happens when
people lose jobs with their spending. They tend to spend less.
(33:33):
So that'll be something of note as we go forward.
But I just want to make a point again of
what we've told you. We don't have TDS. We have
complemented him on many things, and we wish him well
(33:56):
and we want him to do great things my own rules.
Higher taxes is not a good thing. A few other notes, Well,
(34:16):
it's in real time. I am being told that possibly
Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City, who's up
for reelection, And there's all this worry about who's gonna
(34:44):
run New York City. And normally I wouldn't talk about
a mayoral election, but it is. New York City has
an announcement to make. I guess he's gonna make it
sometime this afternoon. We're expecting the announcement to be he's
gonna drop out of the election in order to help
somebody else win. And he supposedly cuts some sort of
(35:06):
deal with the administration on an ambassadorship or something like
that in order to get out. When you have a chance,
go look at that news. That's interesting. Let me be clear,
you can't have a communist run New York City. And
(35:30):
to be clear, not only as a communist, he's a
con artist. His whole campaign is a lie. He's now
telling you all these things that he's not. His whole
life has been based on certain principles, and all of
a sudden he is dropping all those principles in advance
of his campaign can't have that, not in New York City.
(35:58):
So I'm watching that very closely because I repeat it's
New York City. Going into next week, there's just a
slew of growth stocks setting up. And I am emboldened
(36:22):
by the semiconductors as a whole getting back above the
fifty day and a very strong move today in something
like a micron a Taiwan Semiconductor. Not saying we're buying them,
but in order to go higher, as we have said
to you, certain things have to happen. Number one is
(36:46):
you gotta get back above the fifty day moving average,
and they did it well and with strength. Also some
of these contract manufacturers I mentioned cls, there are others
very very strong. So in spite of what happened today
(37:09):
with banks with MasterCard and Visa, the transports are still
blair as well as some other areas. I think there's
opportunity going into the end of the year. And I
say this with Microsoft kind of breaking down, and Video
(37:37):
kind of breaking down, and video and video and the
semiconductors were strong today. Yeah, we'll be watching. I've always
wondered for the last months, who's going to come after
Nvidia and how much they do and how much they make.
(37:59):
In this talk, there's actual talk that others are having inroads.
We'll see other names. Were watching Apple and Google off
of that news, not just really the news, but the
reaction was pretty darn good. Ali Baba certainly wasn't the earnings,
(38:22):
but they said they had some sort of AI chip
and the market reacted. Well, we're gonna be watching that
in the weeks ahead. And just overall, not a ton
of things breaking down as of yet. Wary of some areas,
(38:42):
weary of some stocks, wary of some places. But interest
rates coming down, and central banks are lowering rates big time.
I'd heard seventy five of them around the globe and
we're up next. And as we've repeated to you thousands
(39:06):
of times, normally, if you're not going into a contraction
or recession, lower rates won't hurt the market. If anything changes,
we will let you know. Small caps another good day
(39:33):
drifting higher. Lower interest rates leave no doubt there is
your story, and we will be harping on them going forward,
and we'll let you know if we get an audience
with anybody in the administration. I will not use my
(39:57):
title of Fox News Business contributor I'll just try to
make some inroads and see if I can at least
get to speak to somebody, because I can help that.
All said, you have a great weekend. Drive carefully when
you get home, do like I do, quite simple. Make
sure you hug your family. Make sure you hug your children.
They will feel better, You will feel better. I promise
(40:18):
they will be well until Monday. Have a good night.
Speaker 6 (40:22):
Bye bye.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
This has been Investor's Edge with Garycultbomb on Biz Talk.
To listen to past episodes or to get in contact
with Gary, go to Garykay dot com. That's garyka dot com.
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