EP 200 | Spencer Strider, Injuries in Fantasy and Small Sample Reactions - Launch Angle

Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Incoming pitch spin rate of 2500RPM 95.6 mph adjusting swing
12°. Proceed with launch angle.
Welcome on into another episode of the Launch Angle podcast.
I'm Rob D You can always find meon Twitter at Deadpool.

(00:22):
Hitter Robin Jeff will be in very shortly.
We'll be getting to talking about Spencer Strider.
How would be draft in the first two rounds if we were drafting
right now. Ron El Blanco, the ads from this
previous weekend, and some of the guys that we might have some
serious concerns for so far in asmall sample of the early
season. Come check out the pull hitter
Patreon. Go to patreon.com, put pull

(00:43):
hitter fantasy in the search bar.
It's also my pin tweet. You'll get the other additional
podcast that me, Robin, Jeff Do,as well as several other podcast
and articles for me during the week.
Come check it out for free rightnow if you want for one week and
we hope to see you in there and in the discord where there's
plenty of fantasy baseball talk and analysis that's being spread

(01:06):
and enjoyed by all. So come check it out.
Hope to see you there soon. Enjoy this episode with Robin,
Jeff. Here's the catch.
Today, which doesn't mean two hours necessarily, but I'm I
I've got time. OK, cool.
Sounds good. All right, welcome on into
another episode of the Launch Angle Podcast.
I'm here with my main men, Rob Silver.

(01:29):
Jeff Zimmerman, How y'all doing on this wonderful Thursday,
April 11th as we storm through the early stages of baseball
season. Jeff, what's going on?
Storm through. I'm just.
I have never had teams that like, I think everyone's
probably this way, that has multiple teams that some are
just utter garbage right now andyou're just like maybe I can get

(01:49):
like a fifth place finish with this team.
It's just like great. I've lost my first three round
picks already, you know? And then there's other ones that
are like, at least they're healthy and you feel good about
them. But I've never, like, felt this
extreme so early. Yeah, it'll be okay, Jeff.
It'll it'll all it'll it'll all work itself out.
Much like OJ Simpson dying and going to hell.

(02:11):
We just found out. But it'll all work itself out.
We always get some interesting news that we're about to start
podcast. Exactly.
Well, did you imagine these justthe Bronco, the Bronco chase
with Twitter? Like, I'm I'm old enough, I was
a kid when the Bronco chase happened.
But could you imagine today the shit that people would be

(02:33):
tweeting as he's being chased down the LA Freeway there?
It really would be wild, like mind boggling.
But also too, we've also been sodesensitized to like, the
outrageous things happening that, you know, like if if I
don't know if it would be like alittle bit dumbed down as it was
back in the day. But such an interesting point

(02:53):
because I've heard so many people, like, bring up the
point. Like that was the really not the
start of reality TV, because it started earlier than that, but
like the the, the, the attraction to following some
some event in someone's life like that.
It's really, I remember watchingthe Knick game, the Knicks
Rockets in the Finals and then the Knicks are in the Finals

(03:17):
saying cut to this, that was that was wild, you know?
It is a great 30 for 30. If if people have never seen it,
seen it about that night. It really was one of the
craziest nights ever. Really is.
I have to watch that again, actually.
That's that was a fascinating film for sure.
So we have all these rash of injuries coming on.

(03:39):
Everyone is a little bit down inthe dumps.
You know, my picture, my third pitcher got hurt, my 4th
pitcher's elbow, lots of stuff happening.
And I know it's definitely affected some people's moods as
they, you know, takes a little bit of the fun out of, you know,
fantasy baseball. If it's your hobby, you know,
and you have all these players that you've wanted to do good on

(04:00):
your team and now you're just scratching to get the Cody
Bradfords of the world on your team.
So I don't know, like, how do you guys, I don't know if you've
absorbed any of these injuries, but what would be your best
fight to anyone thumbing throughthat and trying to get through
the doldrums of these early elbow injuries?

(04:20):
It's I played long enough that I've had other teams deal with
it. I mean, even last year I had a
team with my first four picks all on the IL.
At the same time. I think there's a difference
between like they're on the IL and like they're done because
it's like just you have at leastwith the IL you have a hope that
they're coming back. But with, you know, Tommy John,
it's like, well, just got to cutthem like move on.

(04:43):
Sometimes it sucks. I in two of my leagues, they
held on to Strider. It was like, well, if the news
does come back, maybe it was a dumb move and in the end, but it
was just like, we'll just kind of see what happens because
obviously those teams now need pitching.
So maybe the best bet is to get this guy that may come back for
a couple months but I kind of I think there's probably 95%
chance we're just done for the season.

(05:06):
The other thing is just kind of set goals and keep going and
it's going to happen to other people.
It's going to happen to we really haven't got the hitters
someone out that way but usuallythat always happens to Judge was
a top pick last year and he spent a lot of time on the IL.
Remember that your Trey Turner was like a top three pick in
this the whole year. So I mean it's I'm sure we're
going to be losing some hitters also.

(05:28):
But I said that's part of the season like the reason to do it.
It's like you can go for that second, third place and
hopefully maybe cash if you're in a cash league, or just keep
working on it. But this is what it is.
It's what the game is. It's not like, oh, I'm just
going to have all the best players and have a 40 point lead
in the league and just cruise tothe end.

(05:49):
It's you're going to have bumps along the way.
No no no unless you're Rob di Pietro then you already have a
40 point lead and you're cruising to the the finish line
and you've you've already pickedwhich seat you want at the CLQ
auction table next year. In in in in in August You you
prefer being closer to the door right In case you have to go to
the bathroom mid auction at the terrain of the CLQ.

(06:09):
Just joking. I don't want to put that
negativity in the universe. Vice talking about that 10 days
into into the season. We'll talk about where you like
sitting in mid-May. I do.
You see if I'm at last am I? So I I in prepper, in
preparation for today, I went back to the main event ADP
Obviously Spencer Strider was the first pitcher taken and it's

(06:31):
brutal if you took Strider, evenif he's even if he's out for for
eight weeks and I don't think hewill be, but I obviously hope
for baseball that he's back at some point this year.
It's brutal. Let me read off the next 39
pictures that went into ADP. Grab yourself a coffee, Rob
Corbin Burns. Zach Wheeler.
Luis Castilla, George Kirby. Pablo Lopez.

(06:53):
Tyler Glassnow. Terek Scooble.
Kevin Gaussman who was hurt whenhe was drafted in almost all the
mains and at least in in seriouspitching right now.
Edwin Diaz. Freddy Peralta.
Zach Galen Yamamoto Hater web framber Valdez.
So put one finger in the air. He's obviously on the IL and
should be OK, but but it's concerning.
If you own Franco Valdez, I'm onpitcher #18 now.

(07:17):
Aaron Nolan. Max Freed.
Emmanuel Clause. Logan Gilbert.
Bobby Miller. Grayson Rodriguez.
Camila Duvall. Rizzle Iglesias, Andre Munoz,
Evan Phillips, Zach Eflin, BlakeSnell.
Joe Ryan, Cole Reagan's David Bednar.
Also still pitching clearly hurt.
Alexis Diaz. Jesus Lazardo, Pete Fairbanks,
Dylan C's Chris Sale, Clay Homes.

(07:39):
Ryan Housley. Craig Kimbrel.
So I'm Craig Campbell was pitcher 40.
That was taken. That obviously includes closers.
We're mostly talking about starters, but that's sort of
random. There's nothing about like, it's
not like closers don't get hurt all the time.
So other than Strider, who's theheadline?
We have framber. So two out of call it 39 because

(08:01):
of Tony's obviously not actuallya pitcher.
Then we have Justin Steele and Shane Bieber.
Then I can go another seven pictures.
My point just is there's a little bit of perception and
it's not in any way minimize howserious Strider is or Bieber is
or Framber potentially is. Like, those are big deals, but
it's not quite as tragic from a fantasy perspective as it may

(08:23):
feel right now. Like you asked the question on
the outline. So if we were redrafting, would
you do everything differently? And I think the answer is no.
If anything, I would just keep taking more pictures, which I
know is counterintuitive becausethere's lots of people as the
Bieber. Then Strider news came bam bam

(08:43):
bam, who are like, so this is affirmation for fade pitching.
And my thing with the fade pitching is I don't I know how I
feel on my teams that I had Bieber on trying to figure out
who I'm going to replace him with because there's a bunch of
bad options if I faded pitching.So let's say I have I locked
into three or four decent starting pitchers, but I have

(09:06):
like three or four holes every single week I need to fill.
Am I in a better position than the guy who took, like a lot of
pitching early and lost one of the pitchers and then just kept
taking pitching because they're very even?
The Strider teams like, Obviously, if you draft strider
one of the things that can do for you, you don't need your
second starting pitcher in theory until I don't know when

(09:28):
you used to hit it. Rob like round five, round six.
You don't need to get that second starting pitcher right
away, but most people who take Strider I assume, who kind of
adopt to a similar draft approach that we take and most
people take. It's not like you're not still
taking starters in round 12, round 15, Round 17, trying to

(09:49):
get 4-5 starting pitchers on your bench just because you have
Spencer Strider. So like building up pitching
depth. One of the reasons you do this
is you know this is going to happen.
You hope it's not your best pitcher.
You obviously hope it's not a Spencer Strider, but if
anything, I think what's going on right now is affirmation for
You just need a lot of starting pitchers early and often because

(10:11):
the options are only going to get shittier once the season
starts. Like, they'll be guys who
emerge, but fourteen other owners want the same guy every
week. You mean you shouldn't have,
went Strider Gosman? I'm not even.
Just asking for a friend. Hypothetically, yeah,
hypothetically. The main event, you know, You

(10:32):
know. Gossman's going to be fine,
right? Like, we're so we're at a point
of the season. Jokes aside, where Brandon Nimmo
raised his OPS by like 500 points in one game, Kevin
Gaussman goes out his third start of the season.
Remember, Colorado on Friday is his third start of the season,
throws 7 shutout innings, and suddenly his ERA isn't good.

(10:55):
But it's it's meh. And it's like, I don't know why
I was worried about Kevin Gaussman.
I'm a little bit worried about Kevin Gaussman, just to be
clear. But like it's he's had two
starts. Yeah, it's still early.
I guess people were wondering about the velocity, but it was
someone pointed out to the velocity last April started off
pretty low as well. And you know, just kind of, you

(11:18):
know, bastard does the same thing to have a routine to get
back into the and like at this point, do you want to be
throwing maximum velocity to start the season?
It doesn't seem that way, you know, But yeah, you know which
strider when I draft like pitching, you know, I think
we've always discussed about trying to get pitching depth a

(11:38):
whole bunch of beat beating the winning the race to the best.
You know, pitchers 8 through 12,if that's how you like to build
your team. I've been shooting to do the
Main Event benches from, you know, 5 to 6 pitchers on the
bench to start the season and sometimes the race to three or

(11:59):
four to start a draft was reallysolid.
And I think one of my mains is probably the Saturday main in
Vegas where I'm a little concerned.
I didn't get my SP3 tool later than I usually do and that's
kind of a little bit worry. But in one of my mains I have
Gracie Rodriguez and Barrios, you know, behind him.

(12:19):
So it's it's still, you know, not great.
But in another main, the one I share with Dylan White, we did
take Logan Gilbert and Grayson Rodriguez at four or five on top
of Strider in round one. So that one you feel like OK, we
still have, you know, two guys that might carry 180 innings and
give you some, you know, you know, good, good stats to

(12:41):
counter that. But if we do get some news, OK,
give up. I mean, that was always one of
Toby's arguments for pocket aces, right?
Is One of the arguments for pocket aces is if one of the two
aces go down and just probabilistically if you know if
40% of pitchers are going to spend some time on the IL.

(13:01):
Probabilistically, if you take two starting pitchers, whenever
you take the two starting pitchers they are decent.
One of your two starting pitchers is going down at some
point of the season. Hopefully it's not for the full
season, but one of the benefits of pocket aces is if you lose 1
ace, you still have a second ace.
If you take Grayson and Logan Gilbert as your two three, those
are two damn good pitchers. Can you win a 15 team league

(13:22):
with those two as your your as your 1-2 instead of your 2/3?
Of course you fucking can. Like, don't tell me you can't.
So it's not. It's not to minimize what losing
Spencer Strider or Ronald Acuniaor Bobby Witt or whoever you
take in the first round is. It hurts.
That's your first pick. But you can win with with two

(13:43):
great pitchers as your 12 still.Yeah, definitely.
It's just kind of, you know, I think like we always said, it's
just that back end depth, if youhit on a couple of the later
pitchers, if you hit on your Tanner, how if you drafted Ben
Turnbull in around 29, all thesethings kind of, you know, it
doesn't alleviate what you expect from bench or strata, but

(14:03):
it kind of helps you get to the finish line a little easier.
Well, or and and just one last point I don't know I'm fucking
going on is if you have that depth, it's not just if I hit on
Tanner. How can Tanner how turns out to
be a top 20 pitcher. It's that by having five
starting pitchers on your bench even though you lost Spencer

(14:25):
Strider, I almost guarantee evenif you don't have one of those
guys who right now you feel pretty good about, they're still
better than what you can find onthe waiver wire most weeks.
So it's just being able to stream off your bench to you.
Like, even if it's just a leagueaverage mediocre starting
pitcher, that's better than blowing things up.
Like, so much better. Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

(14:47):
I I look back at you know I had a degrom team last year from the
second round and all you know hegave he gave you a little more
than Strider did. I was still able to pump out a
second place finish right behindthe the beast that is John
Pozma. But if you look at some teams
too from last year that drafted A grom needed a overall

(15:08):
finishes. There was some there was there
was seven teams in the top 101 at one O 2 and the average place
of the of those teams that drafta gram was right in the middle
of the total main event you knowentry.
So it's like, yeah, hurt, but you can get past it.
You know it's just how you builtyour team and how you move
forward with it. I think that's the biggest thing

(15:29):
keep grinding away, but that's the biggest, biggest message for
sure. But let's say we do get some
kind of news this weekend that he's going to take the
regenerative path that rest regenerative path to healing.
What? What is the cut off for you guys
to hold them? And Jeff, I know you have them.
So what would be the, you know, two to three months?

(15:53):
Is that something you realistically hold them or just
something like, you know, you hold them until that first news
of a set back or something and you say, all right, maybe this
is too much, what's the line foryou in terms of how long you
want to hold them for? I think it'll probably come down
to roster construction, depending on how many IL guys I
have. Like, if I can just It's like

(16:13):
you always have like 1 stash, but by the time you get like
four other IL players and you'relooking at him for like 4 months
away, I just went. Actually, I won two leagues.
I went to one of them. I'll still hold him on in this
one. I've still got.
I didn't even start like Chris Sanchez or Brandon fought.
I got Kyle Bradish possibly coming back here in a couple
weeks. I've already got a stash there,

(16:34):
but that one seems fine. Like, I don't think like the
hitters have really hit us that hard, or at least I haven't been
lucky that way. No Royce, Lewis's and stuff like
that where you're kind of holding them.
But I can see a team where they just start piling up the IO guys
and you're just tapping to strider's going to be the the
easy cut I think would be for me.

(16:57):
I mean, here's one way of thinking about it.
Kyle Bradish is starting a rehabassignment now, so he'll he's
he's in a ball, he'll be pitching in a ball if it all
goes perfectly. So let's be optimistic.
I think Kyle Bradish is back in,call it three weeks.

(17:18):
So let's let's say he's back thefirst week of May if things go
well, starting in the major leagues for Baltimore.
And let's go further and say Kyle Bradish comes back third
week of May or first week of Mayand is at least 90% as good as
Kyle Bratisch was last year and makes it the rest of the season.
So the best case scenario, he may not be up exactly what he

(17:40):
was last year, but if there was going to be regression anyways.
But it's a very, very good starting pitcher.
He got injured second week of February to 1st week of May.
So that's what, 2 1/2 months between injury diagnosed and
back in the majors? If we put that exact same
scenario for Spencer Strider. And I know medical.

(18:01):
Like, I know elbows don't actually work this way, but
let's pretend he is Kyle Bradishand he got injured first week of
April. He had 2 1/2 months to that, so
that's May, June. Let's say he's back by July 1st.
So you're getting half a season of Strider and put the same best
case scenario hypotheticals on to him.

(18:21):
He survives for the following three months and is 90% of
Spencer Strider. So he's a top five starting
pitcher in baseball in that bestcase scenario, if somebody were
to drop Spencer Strider in a in a 15 team league, how much you
spend in fab to get that? If you thought that's the
scenario that's coming and the answer is you have to spend at

(18:42):
least 202 fifty like that's a must add for half a season of
the top five starting pitcher because there's no rookie
pitcher who could possibly get called up.
That is going to give you 3 months of best case scenario.
Now, we don't have crystal balls.
I've given you the best case scenario.
There are obviously 17 other scenarios, all of which are
descending degrees of worse thanwhat I've just described.

(19:05):
But I think that unless you absolutely need the roster spot
to be able to feel the full lineup, meaning I I just, I have
other guys that I have to hold on to and I cannot put 23 guys
on without freeing up the Spencer Strider spot if he's
going the rehab route. I think you have to go week to

(19:26):
week and hold on because the upside is just too high.
Unless the other scenario is youhave Phil Dusseau like main
overall winning pitching staff. Like if your pitching staff is
so ridiculously good that addingSpencer Strider in July is
unnecessary. But I have weaknesses in my
lineup. That's the other hypothetical.

(19:47):
But don't be an obnoxious prick.Nobody has a pitching staff that
good right now. You don't know that you have a
pitching staff that good, so I think you hold on to Strider if
he goes the rehab route for as long as you possibly possibly
can because of the Kyle Bradish,Because somebody else is going
to pick him up for 200 bucks andyou need him almost certainly if
you drafted Strider. But maybe I'm being like a

(20:09):
conservative pussy and maybe theright answer is just cut it
loose like you need the spot. Start churning that spot hard.
I don't know. What do you think, Rob?
No, I I totally agree with you. I mean, I like like Jeff said
too, I I kind of assessed my teams and looked at the depth
and like I said, I've been trying to build my depth five or
six pitchers on the bench. So currently I'm able to put in

(20:32):
some players that can just get the job done in the meantime.
But I'm I need the words, I needthose words to eat out for the
season. I I really need to hear that not
with you know this is my the first pick overall for me.
You know I've invested heavily in.
So I need to hear those words because like you said, even you

(20:53):
know, I've heard the debate, it's like, well, even if he
comes back, he won't be Spencer Strider.
And it's like, well, that's justa lot of forecasting on your
part, you know, like medically and like knowing what he's going
to come back as, you know, so. Every time Jacob degrom came
back, he was Jacob degrom. The problem was, he couldn't
stay Jacob degrom. Couldn't stay it, right, right.
Yeah. So you know I'm I'm I'm just

(21:15):
going to hold them like you saiduntil the news is like he's
completely out for the season. As long as I can deal with it
and and hold them on my roster I'm going to do it and and and
make it work. I look at he was dropping 6 main
events and the pickups were Ashcraft, Ben Brown, Matt
Manning, Martine Perez, Matt Waldron on the pitching side and
he was dropped for Michael A Taylor as well.

(21:36):
So I, you know, I've had pictures on the bench that are
better than that. So there's no reason for me to
make a rash move if he's out this Saturday.
They say he's done and that's itand moved on, you know, but I
need to hear those words. That's that's exactly what I'm
going to do in meantime. All right, so I did ask you the
question, if drafts were happening now and we were still

(21:58):
in spring training, if it's anything, what change in the in
the first two rounds only, like I'm player wise, is there
anything that has changed, shifted at all besides the
Spencer Strider injury? Obviously pitching wouldn't get
pushed up, I think, but is thereanything else you guys would
think that we might change in this short period of time, the
short 10 days? Trying to I think there's be

(22:24):
some obvious fades. I'm trying to think of like
overall, like Lindor's not goingto go where he was going.
I mean there's there's like someobvious any.
There's just the guys that are struggling.
Bobby Witt's going to probably go higher Bets is going to go
higher than when Julio. Julio's just going to drop some.
But it's still going to be Julio.
Is that right though, that that that that's what I'm trying to

(22:46):
envision? Is that the right thing to do?
Well, you could use stand graphslike in season projections and
see if it's actually changed that much.
It's one of the things like, oh,he's actually has this shown
that he's got a, you know, his aging curve's better, he's
improving. Like there's some small changes.

(23:07):
I remember at one point, I mean I was looking it was so no was
like the top increase in his projection, but it's like he's
pretty low to begin with. But it was at least it wasn't
actually horrible. But you can kind of look at the
players like that that have changed.
But I'm trying to think overall.I think the one thing I would do

(23:30):
is probably play it by feel is Iwould try to hold off on
pitching and see what everyone else does.
It'd be nice to have like a middle pick and jump in as late
as you can. It's still like at some point
get a bunch, it might be nice and like in an auction always
thought like that way where it'sjust like I'm just going to grab

(23:51):
you know, 712 dollar guys and that that's the staff I'm going
to go with and then grab some $1.00 guys in the reserve round.
But you just can't ever do that in them and then draft, they
just all go. But I I don't know if anything
else, Rob, you guys got anything?
A specific player is people. People will be all back in on

(24:15):
the Mike Trout train as of today.
So Mike Trout's ADP in the main was 78, so it was sixth round
pick. I don't think he makes it into
the first round. People aren't that crazy, but I
think people are like injuries. Fuck injuries.
Mike Trout's awesome and he's back, baby.
And I don't think he makes it like past the middle of the

(24:39):
third round, maybe the 2-3 turn.He's running again.
We're he. This is what Hall of Famers do
and Mike Trout's back. And I think Mike Trout would go
wildly different as of today. And I get it.
He is healthy as of today. I But that was that Mike Trout

(24:59):
still hit baseballs was not the concern.
The running is a surprise. Let's see if that stays.
He's he's me putting this into the universe away from getting
hurt again. But but yeah, I think Mike Trout
would get. I think Mike Trout.
Mike Trout would have of like top 150 picks him and maybe
Michael Garcia, who I know didn't go late.

(25:20):
But I think people will just convince themselves he's now a
superstar player. I think those would be two big
changes. CJ Abrams.
I think people would say, oh it's real and it's spectacular,
baby. So I think he might go closer to
like then he was going in drafts, so like mid second round

(25:40):
in some mains. If we were to Rico some of the
pictures like Kirby would drop like blah blah blah.
That's all over reaction theatrebased on again two starts.
But I think I think there'd be areordering of starting pitcher
just based on who's doing well and who's doing poorly.
It'd be. Interesting to see where crochet
ends up. Yeah.

(26:01):
Oh yeah. That's a great.
That's a great one. I could see him going way up
being, yeah. I'm thinking like fifth, sixth
round is where I was. Wow.
That's yeah. OK.
I was going to say top 150, but that's fantastic.
I love that. I love that.
Which is which is crazy town. Crazy town.
But who would you take him? I mean, some of those guys go

(26:22):
in. Then it was like, well, it's you
who do you one instead of him. I was actually kind of bringing
up the ADPI. Didn't have it.
Let me see picture wise ahead ofYeah, I would take Zach.
Zach left. Him.
I would take Zach Aflin in 15 seconds over crochet.
Not even close. What about the like this batch

(26:44):
of guys, Hunter Brown, Michael King, like the 120 area?
Call us Rodon. I would take Rodon over him.
Like, I'm a little bit worried about Brown.
So, yeah, Brown. 'S probably going to end up in
the bullpen in about a few days.Oh, your faith in in pictures.
Being able to stay healthy for afew more days is adorable, Jeff.

(27:05):
The the huge Verlander be able to make it back.
It's just whoever, they're goingto move there when.
Verlander. Comes back, I know.
It's. Anyways, so so yeah, it's a fun
question to always ask because Ihope the NFBC does the second
chance leagues again. Like at at Memorial Day time.
They're so much fun for this very reason.

(27:25):
It's like, it's like, do you believe the projections or fuck
the projections? Crochet is not a 4-5 ERA
pitcher. He's awesome.
I'm taking him in the fourth round.
It's just fun for that reason. Like the money is the money.
If your teams are doing shitty, it's nice to have a second shot,
but it's just fun for like actually when you have a bit of

(27:45):
skin in the game, it's easy for us 3 goofballs on a podcast to
say this is what we do. It's very different when you're
on the clock with a minute to go.
So I hope Greg, you should you should get Phil like they'll do.
Apparently the NFBC will do anything Phil asks them to do.
So you should get Phil to message them to to start the
second chance leagues again in May and say tell, have, have.

(28:08):
Make it very clear he doesn't care if his second chance draft
boards go public right away. So do whatever they want,
whatever they want with the draft boards.
But they should start the secondchance leagues and I don't even
I think they can either do them as stand alone leagues or have
an overall or even just like putthe sign ups out there, see what
the level of interest is and if the level of interest is create

(28:30):
like a structure for an overall.But I think people like doing
that, even if it's just all the money stays in the league
payout. Like I don't, I don't know.
I'm fine either way. I don't think you being crowned
the second chance overall champion is that prestigious
thing that you need. And overall if the NFC doesn't
want to take some risk that they're not going to fill it.
But I think they fill it. I think people are crazy enough

(28:52):
right now and into it enough nowthat I think that if they say
we're going to guarantee a it doesn't have to be huge to start
a $10,000 overall prize. We need to fill this many
leagues. We're going to start drafts on
the the Wednesday of Memorial weekend.
We'll go all the way till whenever Monday and and and it's
go time or however they structure.

(29:13):
I don't give a shit on the structure.
I just think it's fun. No, I I think just like you
said, just for this exact reason, just for this exact
exercise, it it makes for a great little practice to see
who's going to react and who's going to, like you said, who's
going to look at rest of season ejections and say that like
this, this has to be wrong. It has to be right.

(29:33):
I think that's Austin last year they had a lot of a lot of sign
ups for the Gladiator at you know the Second Chance.
But they didn't do any of the fab ones that that should be
that that should be brought back.
Because there's definitely some teams who if if they lose a
Strider or framber or or everyone, they're just going to
climb in and say, yeah, yeah, I got a draft again, you know, and
that's. Absolutely.

(29:54):
And and I think if they start advertising it sooner rather
than later, while people like have that itch still, they're
more likely to fill drafts for six weeks from now.
Right, 100%. Maybe they can even do like
slow, slow draft, like slow fab draft, you know?
Sure, that can even even be a possibility to start.

(30:15):
As long as it it finishes beforeyou start your 1st 2025 draft in
mid-May like as long as long as they don't over.
It'll get confusing if you're doing a second chance league
while you're doing your first next year slow DC draft.
I don't know. Is that a June 1st start?
Your first next year draft? August.
August. You sure like 'cause that feels

(30:36):
late to me. Maybe you should start doing
2025 drafts in June. Maybe May.
Maybe you wait till July 4th to get things start.
Think about it. You're you're backyard
barbecuing, you're shooting off your fireworks and you're
starting a 2025 draft. Jesus man, you you paint a
beautiful picture. But I mean how can I, how can I
say no to that, you know? Yeah yeah I I I just, I'll add

(31:00):
like to the ADP thing. I think you're totally right
with like the I I think people would overreact to the Kirby
Castillo you know combination there.
Class now would definitely shootup and maybe into the first
round. But then then I think there's
some other play you mentioned Abrams, but I think the obvious

(31:20):
like Tyler O'Neill would shoot up and I think even Christian
Yelich who looks really good andpulling the ball again and he
probably have a little bit of bump into his ADP as well.
So and I think that up at the top, I think I think what we
would see is I think the biggestthing up at the top I thought
would be more of a discussion ofof Tatis at at two or three with

(31:44):
with Wit and with J Rod and probably Mookie because Mookie
looks otherworldly. But I think they that would I
think Tatis would would probablygain a couple of more because he
didn't even get picked higher than fifth.
I think that would change if if things would start right now.
Jeff, in your new mind, in the news column, you did hit on Rona

(32:06):
Blanco. You alluded to the Astros
starting pitcher with Hunter Brown looking awful to start off
and JP France as well and Verland is on the way back.
So what's the squeeze there? What's your read on it right
now? I don't think there's a way they
can sit Blanco right now. Like, can you really just go to

(32:26):
the guy? Like, oh, right, you almost
threw two, you know, no hitters,and you're going to have to go
to the bullpen. You know, it's like the way the
rest of the staff is struggling.Like, I just don't think he'll
be it. And I think everyone kind of
assumed it. Personally, I think JP France is
the worst pitcher, but Brown's struggling more right now, so

(32:46):
it's going to be tough and iffy between it.
But I think just the narrative has changed that.
I think one of those two are kind of fighting for their jobs,
maybe off this next start to seewho heads there.
And I think a lot of people, a lot of brown managers, might be
a little surprised if he's the one, but I think there's a
decent chance he could be it. Yeah, I mean, if if when

(33:09):
Verlander comes back, Blanco still has a 0 ERA, we can look
at all his advanced pitch. Metrics aside, Major League
Baseball teams still at a certain point cannot say to a
pitcher you have not given up a single run in by then.
Call it three or four starts andwe have to take you out of the
rotation. Like it's just not going to
happen. The reality is Blanco has, what

(33:30):
is it, a four 6S, which is basically in line with his
Steamer and bat going forward projections.
So like, sometimes weird shit happens in seasons.
I don't think Blanco is. I think, I think we would we
will he we will Bryce Elder Blanco at some point this season

(33:52):
and have conversations of hey, you remember when Blanco had to
stay in the rotation instead of these really good pitchers.
But you know that's I think that's just reality.
So I I think I I agree with Jeff.
I think France is probably the worst pitcher here so it's not
even there's a middle ground. Blanco may be fine the rest of

(34:12):
the season and with various injuries, and if Brown doesn't
turn it around, may do better than Elder just because he he
survives. So surviving may allow him to do
belt better, but he's obviously nowhere near this good of
pitcher because he's not. He hasn't been that good.
Like, no, Hitting the Blue Jays at this point is interesting,

(34:32):
but not that impressive, if we're being honest.
No, Yeah. I mean, I think, I think no,
Hunter Brown has just started off really odd, like he's
lowering his curveball usage. Like it just doesn't really look
like he knows what he's doing. Like approach wise, I think
that'll balance out France. I mean, you know, his 9% came on

(34:53):
his walk last year. I think that alludes to like
what we what we know already of what he can be.
And even with the Ronald Blanco theme, even Christian Javier
with his 110 ERA, it's his the ERA 2542 he's he's let up 18
five balls. None of them has gone over the
fence. It just seems like a lot of good

(35:14):
fortune there for the Astros pitchers.
So but I there's no chance you could take Blanco out.
It's, it's. It's not How baseball do you
have? Do you have their Stuff Plus
rankings there by any chance? Rob, how?
How did the Astros starters rank?
By Stuff Plus. I don't, I don't.
It's it's out of my leaderboard.Oh man, we're letting our
listeners down. Not we don't have their stuff

(35:36):
plus, right. OK, I just put it up real quick
can. You can you post it in the show
rundown at least how the stuff plus plays.
I'm just joking. Let's.
See. I don't care.
Yeah. OK.
OK, pass. Pass, pass.
You also noted about Tijuana Walker Jeff making his comeback.

(35:59):
What are the chances that he gets his doesn't get his
rotation spot back as Spencer Turnbull, It's just lighting the
world on fire. I think that it's definitely,
let's see what's going on. Like the way they sounded like,
oh, we're going to slow play himand give him the whole maybe 30
whole days. And if he looks better than the

(36:20):
guys here, if not, he's going tohave to the bullpen or maybe
we'll hope someone gets hurt, you know, not hope that someone
gets hurt. They're kind of looking good.
I mean, they kind of have a loaded one.
But Turnbull keeps throwing likehe is and it's again like you
really can't take him out. And Gonzalez really hadn't
looked good in in his rehab so far.

(36:42):
So it's just going to be kind ofan expensive, open arm.
But I think that that's the right call, Philly.
They usually try to win, so they're probably going to put
out their best arms at the time.And Mike said someone's going to
get hurt, so he'll get another chance to get back in there.
That's kind of the given for theyear.
It's it's I, I I feel like we'rehaving a a Luis Rangifo moment

(37:07):
in some ways with Taiwan Walker.It's like is Taiwan Walker
really a guy who comes back and just has a claim on a rotation
spot anywhere? Like if you dig, if you spend 13
seconds digging in into him. His Sierra last year was like
5497S last year. His projections are like if you
knew, if if you did the blind like do you like pitcher A or

(37:29):
pitcher B. Even though Spencer Turnbull has
no track record, the projectionslike Spencer Turnbull already
better than Taiwan Walker. And I assume that both the
Steamer and the bat, like if they see four or five more
starts of Spencer Turnbull not being awesome but just being
like league average starting pitcher, maybe a little bit

(37:51):
better than league average starting pitcher.
I think the gap between him and Taiwan Walker is is big, which
makes Taiwan Walker for Philadelphia a really useful 6
starter like every team who's good team.
And Philadelphia has the potential to be a very good
team, especially if Atlanta's lost the best starting pitcher

(38:14):
in baseball this year. I still think Atlanta's awesome,
but their rotation isn't deep atthis point.
So I think Taiwan Walker as your6 starter as like a swing man
who you keep stretched out Enough is a really useful guy to
have. But they need to win as many
games as they can. And I think that until Spencer
Turnbull shows that he's doesn'tgive them a better chance than

(38:37):
Taiwan Walker, I think they're like Dave Dombrowski on down a
smart organization. I think they'll stick with the
guy who gives them the best chance to win and for now I
think that's Turnbull. That can change really quickly
though, to like Spencer Turnbullcould give up six runs in his
next start and we look ridiculous for ever suggesting
that. I have a tough read on if

(38:58):
Philly. It's like, oh, we're spending.
I don't even know when We're like probably a million, maybe 2
million on Turnbull versus 18 onWalker.
I just don't know, like the Yankees won't do that.
Like they're paying a guy he's going to be playing, no matter
how shitty he is. It's like DJ Lemahieu is going
to be in the field if he's healthy, even though he's not a
good baseball player pretty muchat this point.
So that's just the only deal is like some teams like I don't

(39:22):
know if it comes down from the owner, like I'm paying this guy
almost $20 million. He better be playing every day.
Yeah, boy, the Taiwan Walker's contract goes to 2026.
Jesus Woof. Was his girlfriend?
What? Yeah.

(39:42):
Yeah, it's pretty roughly. A good time.
Yeah that that's a that's a clear Dombrowski sign there.
What Bob, you mentioned projection changing what?
What is the biggest driver to a projection changing so quickly?
Straight up K minus walk? So both, both.
Both. Steamer and the bat, as far as I

(40:03):
know. Jeff Interrupt, if I say
anything that is incorrect for pitchers.
So pitchers and hitters are verydifferent.
For hitters, it really is. Every single day Steamer in the
bat gets updated with last night's game that drops out a
little bit from the past. So if it's a sort of at its
core, it starts out with a weighted 3 year average that and

(40:27):
then starts adjusting off of that.
Obviously with each new piece ofinformation for a hitter,
something else drops out, but itmoves very slowly for hitters,
like with a Miguel Sano that Jeff mentions, where you have
big gaps, it can move faster, but for most hitters it's really
hard to change. With pitchers, though, things
like pitch velocity and strikeouts, walk rate, and like

(40:48):
moving Sierras can move things much faster.
Like you'll see guys in Steamer that if you've noted their
fastball is up a mile and a half, suddenly their projection
can look really quite different,really quite quickly.
If their strikeouts walk rate over A5 game stretch is
suddenly, call it an 18% strikeout minus walk rate, where

(41:09):
is their historic is 12 and their velocity is up.
It can move, not radically, but it can move like materially.
And from a fantasy perspective, if you're starting to run it
through an SGP, it can start moving like rankings pretty
quickly and and SGP projections,I don't know, do you have more
detail than that, Jeff? Yeah, that's pretty much it.

(41:30):
The one thing with pitchers is like their strikeout walk rate
and their walk rate stabilize really quickly.
There's, and it does for hitters, but it doesn't really
matter that as much. Like, we really care more about,
like the home runs and stolen bases.
I mean in all fairness, but it'slike the and they don't really
sometimes move that much for hitters.

(41:50):
But that's the key is that a lotof the pitching stuff stabilizes
really quick. Like I know if the velocity
changes, it's an immediate like half a, you know, K per nine
difference up or down. I think that's what it is for
one mile, an hour in velocity. So you can see some pretty quick
jumps that way. Yeah, I mean, take, take

(42:11):
Turnbull. He has a 32% strikeout rate to
41 hitters as a starting pitcher.
So there's no relief appearancesyet, obviously.
I don't know. Do you know off hand, Jeff, what
strikeout rate stabilization number is in terms of batters or
innings? I was thinking like 6 like like
two months but that's. Yeah, so, So if let's, let's say

(42:32):
Turnbull has, call it six more starts.
So we're in late May and his strikeout rate obviously is
going to be 32%, but let's say it's like 26 percent, 27%.
Then at that point like a steamer will say he's not the
same starting pitcher we projected back in in January and

(42:55):
November. He's more this guy.
It's not 100% this guy because we still have to have regression
baked in, and his previous statsare real and they they count.
But it will move very quickly, Very, very quickly for pitchers.
I I always try to reference thatone fan graphs article.
I have it bookmarked, but it's it's, it's, it's it's always,

(43:18):
it's rooted back to 2010 and I always wonder if that have
changed at all like the stabilization points, because I
try to use that graph sometimes,but it just seems like it's such
a fashion way. It actually would be a good
article for Jeff to write. Not in the process, but for fan
graphs like an updated when you when you're just struggling to
find an an updated based on the best stat cast data we have

(43:41):
right now. Stabilization for the stats we
care about. Yeah, sounds like for someone
else I. Yeah, to give somebody an idea,
I have no ideas. I've I've already got like the
monster injury one that fan graphs is.
Well, the problem is is. Jordan Jordan Rosenblum.
He seems like the right guy to do that.

(44:01):
Yeah, it's but it it's kind of just like you do it and it helps
everyone, but it's kind of like it's boring as hell, you know?
It's like, Oh yeah, I did this. True the the.
Person who may have them, and I wish he'd put them out, or at
least some basic ones, is probably Cardi Reruns them every
year and I could see why he would want to hold some back.

(44:23):
You know, it's like, oh, I'm notgoing to give you all my numbers
for my projections, but it'd be nice to have like strike out
rate, walk rate, maybe some of the other ones for hitters and
just be like, these are like 6 I'll put out every year and see
if they're still the same. Yep.
That's fair, Jeff. Heading over to your big kids
article? Big Kids name is still there
which I like to see but 9 high stakes leagues on the NFPC

(44:47):
Different a little bit differentthan the main events the the air
drops very differently there butbut I just wanted to get your
guys reaction to the Blaze Alexander Oliver Dunn, big kind
of you know not big ads next week but there was a lot of
tension toward toward them and also I want to tie it into Cody
Bradford as well who you mentioned in your mining the

(45:09):
news. So let's start off with the
hitters first Blade Alexander Oliver Dunn.
What kind of run you think theseguys can sustain in fantasy
league this year? I think they're like I'm
considering like a one month run.
I I in both cases I had him in waterfalls.

(45:29):
Jeff Erickson would be proud of that.
There, Put him in there. Yeah.
But it was mainly I was hurting for some like my bench.
My bench shortstops weren't likegood or I got.
They actually got hurt like I kind of had Perdomo.
He was when I was targeting because they were going to
Colorado trying to get him a week early.
Then he got hurt. So in both cases, they weren't

(45:51):
someone that I had to stick intomy lineup.
And there's more. Just my bench backups is what I
was looking for. With both of them, I don't, I
don't see like top 101, fifty upside for him.
They're kind of like OK, but it was more of the positions is

(46:11):
more what I was looking for. There's plenty of outfielders
but if I needed some short stops, it was like them or Nick
Ahmed. I mean it was pretty rough there
on the shortstop waiver wires totry to get someone.
So it was like, well, I'm going to have kind of garbage.
I was just trying to find anyonethat was rather interesting and

(46:32):
yeah, that's just where I kind of stood with, with both of them
done. Yeah, he's just fine.
I there's just a lot of swingingmiss to his game.
He was riding actually. I see his bad UPS down quite a
bit. Just I don't know if they're
just no, no, yeah, no prospect pedigree.

(46:55):
I just don't see anything that I'm like excited about right now
with him and I can see other options coming back.
The interesting thing about Blaze is, if you believe
Statcast and it's tiny samples, he's the worst defensive player
in baseball. So he he is quite literally

(47:17):
first percentile in fielding runvalue, 1 percentile in range.
You can't get like any worse than that.
Now on the one hand there they have started him at shortstop
for four of the last five games on and and so they know.
And if I I read before Sunday all of the prospect reviews

(47:38):
about Blaze that I could find and none of them made the point
like boy, this guy isn't a shortstop.
He's going to be a left fielder in 10 minutes, which most of the
process like Eric and and most of the prospect guys aren't shy
about saying this guy will not be a shortstop.
He is playing shortstop right now in the minors.
But this is ridiculous. With him they made it seem like

(48:00):
to the extent he had flaws, it was not that so this could be
tiny sample size. Arizona does not strike me as a
team that even if they need somebody to replace Perdomo for
a long time, that would continueto play the worst fielding
shortstop in baseball forever. There.
They want a a glove there. So either this is going to

(48:20):
correct itself. Certainly people in the discord
who have watched a lot of plays,very few games at shortstop says
he's looked atrosis. So the eye test says not a good
shortstop, but it's just something to watch.
If you're like Jeff, and he was not just this week because he's
in Colorado, it's a I'd like to be able to use him for a month.
Now they could DH him. So from a fantasy perspective,

(48:42):
who gives a shit as long as he'splaying?
But it's way more likely for himto lose the job full time if
he's just ADH to them versus he is the shortstop for them most
days until Predomo comes back. So just something to watch.
Very interesting. I think something that caught my
eye too is, you know, I was a little hesitant when they called

(49:06):
up Kevin Newman and I was like, OK, what what is going to be the
exact use of him? He was So Blaze was starting
against lefties, you know, and we didn't really see the usage
versus the Viti that weekend. But it seems to me maybe they
brought up Newman because they're worried about Catel
Marte DH3 of the last six days. He started and he also had an

(49:27):
off day versus a righty and justseemed like, I don't know, I was
trying to watch him run. I don't know if he's hurt at
all, but obviously he's crushingthe ball and he's there, you
know, most of the time leadoff hitter now.
But I didn't know that was the case, you know, with with
Newman. I did.
Newman was worrying, you know, that was the concern hanging

(49:48):
over me with Blaze. But I was nowhere near the bids
anyway. You know my my 6-7 bucks for the
Colorado stream and hoping for acouple more weeks.
It was nowhere near what the thebids were.
I'm trying to think of I'm. Trying to look at what shorts
there wasn't really. I'm trying to think of what
shortstops were hurt because it literally is like Nick Ahmed,

(50:10):
Nick Allen, Ernie Clement. This is in one of my OCS.
So this it's only even be worse probably in a 15 team or Chris
Taylor, Enrique, Paul Dejong. It's like it's pretty rough out
there if you're trying to look for a shortstop.
Because I can see if someone like had to have him to fill in
for a shortstop that they would have paid up for it because it's
pretty ugly underneath that. Yeah, definitely pretty ugly and

(50:35):
done. You know, it's got that power
speed combo. I subscribe to TJ Status.
I'm sure a lot of people have seen his work on Twitter, but he
has rolling average graft for the minor leagues which I find
pretty helpful when I'm trying to see.
You know when players enter a new level and whether or not
they they're quote UN quote getting better, like their

(50:55):
Wilbur rates, their strike out rate and they strike out and
swing and miss just like didn't get any better over the course
of AA. So I don't know if that is going
to get any better in the major leagues, but obviously in the
short term I think in the until actually the new news on Garrett
Mitchell was now is June 1st. But initially I it was supposed
to be like around May 1st and I was kind of worried about that

(51:17):
too. It's like how did that factor in
to the outfield mix and do they go back to the South frailick
place second and third experiment sometimes.
So I was a little bit worried about the the longer term impact
on Don. But in the meantime I'm sure the
guys who picked him up weren't thrilled to see him sit versus
righty here. I'm sure they weren't expecting
to get any days off. You know when you get, when you

(51:38):
get Oliver done, You can't. You can't have any days off
after that, but. You you think you got Oliver, 26
year old Oliver done and you just plug it and forget it, but
sometimes it doesn't work out that way in life.
He he, you know, I I I saw he was playing a lot in spring
training. I'm like who the hell is this
Oliver done guy and I go and look into him so he's like being
in my brain is in spring training.

(52:00):
I was like, OK guys getting a long look and it's like he's
pretty good but then the the enthusiasm for him by everybody
else to pass mine for sure it itit just became a a nothing
burger on my end but and Jeff. You have you have a lot more
room in your brain. If you have a special spot for
Oliver Dunn for two months, thenI do.

(52:20):
I I just don't have the capacityto hold shit like that in my
head for that long. I'm sorry, I guess.
You're it's good to be. It's good to.
Be share any of that Rob I I need I need some of that is it a
special sauce or it's just it's it's genes.
It's it's it's like 35 years of drinking too much.
As it turns out, it kills a lot of brain cells, Rob, and you

(52:43):
don't have room leftover in yourbrain anymore for Oliver Dunn.
Cheers. I like that.
I'll go with that. So Jeff, I mentioned Cody.
Brad was naming that he he kind of reworked his car, her ball
into the mix and then he kind ofhit one of the highest pitches
this weekend in fab. And and it's, you know, like

(53:04):
this is something I I guess it'sjust all over the place with the
pitch characteristics. Because if you go to like Alex
Chamberlain's pitch leaderboard and you see that he did throw a
crow ball last year according tohis specs, and it's like, well,
what is it? Is he hadn't thrown us in 2019
or was it a different shape lastyear and was characterized as
something else? It is working this year in terms

(53:25):
of helping it. Other pitches play up.
I know you know that the pitch itself isn't that great, but he
has a lot of stuff going on withthat, plus the whole maybe
Michael Lorenzon return takes his job, but maybe Lorenzon
takes somebody else's job. What do you think it's going to
go on forward with Cody Bradford?
I have he's another one words. He belongs in the rotation like

(53:50):
it's going to be tough to be like you know you've got three
wins you know a 1.4 OERA you know you know probably you know
throwing better you've always been pretty good but it's like
you know you just need to go to the bullpen.
I've read some talk that it might be Heaney, and I can maybe
see that we'll see how that if that works out.

(54:12):
But yeah, I just don't see him pulling him out right now.
Like this is going to kind of beone of those.
I think the team's kind of hoping something else happens.
But it's also this is the one I've read way too much on this
this last weekend trying to get in here.
And I swear everyone for the team and all the beat writers

(54:35):
think Lorenzen is like God's gift of pitching.
And it's like this is Michael Lorenzen.
Like no one wanted him before going into the season.
Like he, Lorenzen should be yourtwo.
He should go one time, your one time through the line up in your
bullpen guy. That's what Lorenzen should do.
Nothing more. Let him throw up harder.

(54:55):
Let him do that for a couple innings.
That's it. But my God, the team like they
signed him. They are going to fucking start
him. So I don't.
I don't get it, but I don't. Bradford should not, especially
after he just dominated again last night.
I just don't know how they pull him out.
I think that maybe they told theruns and he's going to get a

(55:16):
chance to start and he's going to there.
I don't know what's going to happen, but I think it's just
stupid pulling Bradford out. I don't think he's like some
great pitcher. He's got an X fit before that's
pretty damn good in this league.Like, that's actually probably
better than league average at this point, so you might as well
just freaking keep pulling him out.
Yeah, I have this thing in a spreadsheet.
It's not as sophisticated as what Jeff does.

(55:38):
That does pitch similarities, just like throw guys in and say
who is the most similar pitcher to them, the most similar
pitcher to Michael Lorenzo. And you guys are going to think
I'm making this out is Bryce Elder.
Bryce Elder and and Michael Lorenzen, on a very superficial
level, are exactly the same guy.Lorenzen is one of the 10 worst

(56:00):
starting pitchers in the last two years with at least 150
innings by Sierra by strikeout minus walk rate.
Like there's nothing about. It's not to say like again good
teams need guys like Michael Lorenzen to get through the
season because guys get hurt andyou just need innings at some
point that are not horrific innings and Michael Lorenzen can

(56:21):
give you some non horrific innings.
But holy shit it's like Pedro Martinez is coming back for us.
My God, we got Pedro coming. It's like it's fucking Michael
Lorenzen. As as like again as Jeff said
it's such a good point. It's like inlet and let's Scott
Boris was asking for like 30 million bucks a year for

(56:42):
Lorenzen. He was a guy that it's like
right now. Could should we sign Rich Hill
at 48 years old? Or Michael Lorenzen?
I guess we'll take Lorenzen instead of Rich Hill.
To be honest, I think I'd ratherRich Hill this season than
Michael Lorenzen. It's fucked up.
I don't know where this is coming from.

(57:05):
He throw a no hitter, Rob. There's there's there's a lot of
guys who have thrown no hitters.I, I it cracks me up when MLB
sends out the net. Look, throwing a no hitter is
still throwing a no hitter. But it's like he made history
yesterday with this no hitter. It's like really like there have
been hundreds of these What makes it historic other than it

(57:27):
happened yesterday so but kind of tautologically is historic.
But there's nothing historic anyways.
I know you're joking. Michael Lorenzen is fine.
I don't think Michael Lorenzen should be owned in 12 team
drafts. Like I don't think there's any
reason maybe as a spot starter if he had a really good start
and has a clear job. But Michael Lorenzen, certainly

(57:48):
to me is way below replacement level in a 12 team league all.
Right. Can you guys ask me this
question? I couldn't figure it out and he
didn't make the list but he was out on some other added list.
What is the infatuation with Aaron Ashby?
Like everyone wants to add him. Are they still like dreaming

(58:09):
from like four years ago? What?
Yeah. What?
What is the deal with him? He's 25 years old and he was
about to about about to pop and maybe this is the year he pops.
Yeah, he's a lefty. He's on the Brewers.
They have an organization at those, you know, it's just a
whole filter of things. And then you just have to pull
yourself out of that and say he's not good and hasn't been
good even in the minors hasn't been good.

(58:31):
So he needs to show. Something it's it's people who
are still looking at 2021 sleeper lists and it's like,
look what they did with Freddy Peralta.
Look what they did here. Look what they did here.
Ashby's the next in line. Who will pitch out of the
bullpen and then turn into a stud?
Starting pitcher, I think. I think that's where it is.

(58:51):
Yeah, yeah. And getting back to Bradford, he
he's a pretty interesting pitcher like he his kids that
new ish curveball. It's 75 miles an hour.
It's like only Ryan Yarborough and Jack Thompson's curveballs
are thrown that slow, but most of them are thrown pretty much a
little bit faster than that. It's very slow curveball.
But his getting back to his fourth team at 2.

(59:13):
Jeff that you noted only 91 miles an hour for lefty on on
their four Steamers twing a strike rate.
Jordan works. Reed Detmer's Andrew Heaney and
Corey Bradford. Cody Bradford, He's right ahead
of you, say Kikuchi. It's like and right ahead of
Garrick O'Shea. Like.
How the hell is he making that work with?
It's just. I don't know how he is like the
fastballs. Getting like that's like good

(59:34):
swinging strike rates for a fastball.
Anything over 10 is like one line elite because without for a
starter and it's like and then there's sweeper slider curve,
but not the curve the the sliderthat he's throwing kind of
between different classifications is been great or

(59:55):
is it But it's you can't take them out like I don't know what
the hell it's like it's working.Kind of a caveo.
Sad. I can never figure that guy out
at. All I'd certainly rather rest of
season Bradford over Blanco. Like if I had to take with you
know which of these which of these do you believe in more.

(01:00:15):
I certainly believe in Bradford more than I do Blanco.
And put aside like the Texas hasa bunch of injured pitchers are
going to come back and at a certain point you have Maxers or
has to start. If degrom ever comes back he has
to start. So I get that there may be
asymmetric risk at a certain point, but if you just told me
both of them are going to run, Ihave way more faith that that

(01:00:36):
Bradford could give you a three 9 to 4 ERA with decent
peripherals and be a good good starting pitcher the rest of the
season. Then I do Blanco.
That's a that's a great call. I I I like that that's that's
about as bold as the call I've heard so far.
There you go. Yeah, there you go.

(01:00:57):
There you go. Just like we predicted, this is
Bradford. On on April 11th and and they
aren't hypothetical discussions for many of us.
These are like, Boy, who's my 5th starting pitcher, Bradford
or Blanco? Oh man, so one of my favorite

(01:01:19):
tag tabs on fan craft and I I I don't use it enough for as much
as I like it, is the seasons that grid.
I really like seeing the trends for like year to year.
And obviously it's really early and it's small samples, but I
think it's a really useful tool,especially if you're not good at
like, you know, making a spreadsheet and finding the
differences. It's a simple tool.

(01:01:40):
You can set your parameters pickyour stat and it showed the
biggest improver. Then it could be from the career
or from last year. So I was messing around and I
was just looking at K percentageand and and hard hit and two of
the biggest droppers in both aresome old time first Basemans
here and Jose Abreu and Paul Goldschmidt, 2 guys that we were
kind of concerned about as they got older and more so I think

(01:02:04):
Goldschmidt because of the draftcosts that Jose Abreu but
they've had some pretty large drops so far especially
Goldschmidt, like I I don't knowif he's just if is this the
start of the end or was last year the start of the end but
the K rate is at 31%. It just keeps climbing every

(01:02:25):
year. The hard hit is not there as
well 24% to start the season. I know it's a small sample, but
is this like super concerning right now?
I'll. Just start with the brave.
He's hurt. He's not playing some like
there's a there's an issue with him.
So it's like known with with Goldschmidt, it's not no one's

(01:02:49):
admitted anything, which doesn'tmean there's nothing wrong, but
it's definitely I have. I have a few shares of of him
and not like I can't take him out, but I really just think
he's hiding some kind of injury right here.
I don't think it's like a decline like the decline seems

(01:03:10):
too much like there could be some and maybe he just this is
just it like it just falls off aCliff he didn't didn't seem like
someone that would be that wouldbe that way But no it's it's
it's rough it's rough with him just no power on top of the no

(01:03:31):
strike out rate. So yeah, I would.
I'm kind of getting to the pointwe're seeing if who's on my
bench that I might roster them for a bit until Goldschmidt
shows some kinds of signs. Like I probably have like
possibly like Ty France or Josh Bell.
I think right now I'd rather be starting that, as sad as that
sounds. But it's like, yeah, got to wait

(01:03:52):
for the you can't really drop him, but you just can't keep
discontinuing if he's going to produce like this or play
through whatever injury it is. Before I answer the question,
Rob, I I I I bet there are are at least two or three people
listening right now who say, Rob, this tab you were talking
about sounds awesome on fan graphs.

(01:04:13):
How do I find? This how do you get to it?
How? Where, where is it?
Can you describe how one finds the season tab on fan graphs?
If I wanted to find out which ofmy old first basement are
sucking ass because I'm. Not sure it is, in a way it is
sucking. Ass.
Yes, you have to hover over the Leaders tab, and once that comes

(01:04:34):
up, you'll see Batting, Pitching, Fielding.
You'll even see Major League Leaders Rank.
You'll see a split leaderboard. And then right beneath the split
leaderboards is the Seasons. That grid, It's hidden.
It's a golden gem, and it's hidden should be.
It should have its own tab. Good.
Thank you. Yeah.
And and by 1 leader out there who might be considering it.

(01:04:55):
I couldn't find it as you said it and I said this sounds
awesome, how do I find this on Fangraph?
So I appreciate you saying that.Now I see it on Jose Abreu, the
only so he was dropped in at least one of my mains this past
week and I don't think that's unreasonable.
The only argument that's like inyour head, the front of your

(01:05:17):
head, why do you bid on him? Or why do you not cut him as the
case may be is well, but holy shit, look how bad he was last
year to start the season and then look how perfectly
promulent like pretty good he was after he got going last
season and therefore it should work out the same way this year.

(01:05:37):
So I want to keep him and get the good stuff or pick him up so
that when it turns around, I've got him already.
And that's not a particularly compelling argument whatsoever.
And the thing with Jose Abreu isif you drafted him, he was cheap
enough that you should have beenthinking like I think this could
be a fine first baseman. But you should like you should

(01:05:59):
absolutely be playing France Thai France over Jose Abreu
right now. If you if you can you'd probably
be bet you probably. I'm not saying you should
absolutely in every 15 team league cut Jose Abreu if he is
hurt. There may be reasons to be
patient and he's shown he can turn it around.
He's still a very good hitter, but you should be able to stream

(01:06:21):
a first baseman or a corner guy for most teams that can do
better right now than Jose Abreuand keep him on your bench if
you're not going to cut him. The problem with Goldschmidt is
you did pay a premium price for Paul Goldschmidt and his 14%
hard hit rate. Like you can look at You could.
You could, as I think we probably did in the offseason,

(01:06:46):
look at Paul Goldschmidt and youcould from last year and tell
yourself a story why it wasn't that bad.
Like he still played every day. He he still put it all together.
It's it's not that bad. He's still a useful player and
and and and and he's the kind ofguy on the Cardinals that even

(01:07:07):
at 36 like they'll they'll sprinkle a little bit of their
Pixie dust and he'll turn it allaround.
And his hard hit rate last year was down from where it was for
like peak Paul Goldschmidt at 38%.
And when he was, you know, superstar Paul Goldschmidt, he
was 4647% but 14% hard hit rate very early in the season.

(01:07:30):
Like that's like Miles Straw is looking and pointing at Paul
Goldschmidt and laughing at at that number.
That's not a Major League Baseball player #14% again in 12
games. So he needs to either fix that
or he can't play first base in the majors at that level like

(01:07:50):
that does not work whatsoever. So I don't know what the fuck
you do if you have Paul Goldschmidt like bench,
Benchamin weight. I do think it's probably even in
12 teams like cutting Paul Goldschmidt after 12 games seems
rash, because he still is. He's still.
We are still early enough where if he hits three home runs today

(01:08:12):
or tomorrow, whenever they play next, suddenly his season line
looks amazing. So any player who can turn
around their entire season in one day you don't cut yet is a
pretty good rule. And Paul Goldschmidt, like going
off for a week is not crazy at all.
But he's fucking horrendous right now.
Like that's 14% hard hit rate. Like how the how do you do that?

(01:08:37):
Yeah, his, his, his rest of season OPS projecting right now
795 on Steamer. Preseason was 828.
So that's that's a pretty big. Drop.
That's a big drop. That's a big drop.
And yeah so obviously like you said can't cut him yet because
he can be the guy who has a you know a four home a week and
you're like shit what I do. But you definitely can actively

(01:09:00):
start shopping for a possible improvement.
Maybe just a situation in fab where you don't skip over saying
maybe you know I shouldn't pick up Carlos Santana Rowdy, the
legs you know those are the OR even Gioricella for Christ's
sakes. Like he's playing and he's got
multi eligibility. At least you can hit the ball
right now, but it's definitely something I thought, you know,

(01:09:21):
as I was again, I just really like using that tab and so put
small sample stuff. But it's definitely interesting.
And the last guy just wanted to see if you guys would, if you
were the Detroit Tigers, would you get rid of Javi Baez at this
point? I mean, what is, what is he
doing to this team? He's awful.

(01:09:41):
The contract like, it's just like bad contract time.
Yeah, it's tough for any, like Ithink Chris Davis was the
largest contract. They still had like 50 million
when they cut him. I think Baez isn't there yet,
but that may break the record. It's like if Stanton was like
from last year, I thought he wasgoing to be close, but he sort
of kind of has turned it around.But my God, this is might be the

(01:10:03):
most money eaten ever out of that that season of the
shortstop. My God, it's just.
He's just awful. I mean he's striking out 31%,
but it's got to he's got a 323 OPF and he just.
I just watched a a couple of hisplate appearance.
I don't know why. I kind of find myself watching

(01:10:25):
the Tigers often. I just really like their team
off throughout. Not Jack Flaherty, Rob, but
definitely the rest of the team.But he just looks like he is
done. Like like done done.
No, no saving. Harvey buyer.
Then how the hell do they get out from this, you know?
Well, they understand. White Sox.
No, they you understand it's some cost.

(01:10:45):
And the thing, the thing, The thing is the Tigers.
Tigers have a a fun, interestingyoung team that is probably a
year away from competing for a real wild card or or the
division. But they're they're they're a
credible team on the field rightnow.
And the most incredible thing tobuy it, a bias, is like

(01:11:08):
Fangraff's page to me beyond theamount of money he's still owed,
is, if you look at his all his projections.
It is so hard for a shortstop tohave 500 plate appearances still
projected and have a sub one WARvalue the rest of the season.
In the sense that like the defensive value that WAR

(01:11:31):
prescribes to a shortstop, if you're just a guy who's standing
at shortstop, your defensive value should give you more in
500 plate appearances than one WAR.
Like it's just there's such an Apositional advantage to WAR And
Baez is he's not a great shortstop anymore but he's a
let's call it a league average ish shortstop.

(01:11:52):
So his defensive value should get him there.
But he's such a bad hitter that they are just creating a a a
sinkhole for their entire team by having him out there.
So yeah, I mean if I were running it's easy for I'm, I'm,
I'm I'm not selling crappy pizzaso it's not my money the way it
is for the the ilitches as the owner.

(01:12:13):
But I would eat the money. It's it's a sun cost.
If you screwed up you you you tried to bring in a a flashy
free agent it did not work out. But you have enough talent now
that I don't think the fan. I would imagine I'm not a
Detroit Tiger fan, but I imagineDetroit Tiger fans would feel
relief if they if they move on from Baez, because there's
enough things to be excited for for the team that like, let's

(01:12:35):
let's let's watch more of that, less of Javi Baez popping out.
100% and it's 47% owned in main event.
That has to be 0 soon because he's just.
What are you holding him for? You know, I just it just seemed
like an easy cut for me. At this point, yeah, there's
enough stolen bases out there that even if if Javi Baez, like,

(01:12:55):
gets twenty stolen bases, you don't want all the other shit
that goes along with that. Right.
Yeah. Not, not a 180 average, you
know. With no power.
With. Yeah.
With where did they go? Oh God, where did it go?
All right, we're going to end this pod with a couple of
questions from the Discord. Our buddy Drew Forte leading the

(01:13:17):
online championship again after winning it last season.
Phil Duto answered a question byAndrew Sullivan and kind of like
he with out of his true closer. We didn't get any high dollar
ads and just wondered if he should like start or Chris
Martin or Hunter Harvey or is ittoo crazy to just start rolling
out nine starting pitches every week?

(01:13:38):
And Phil's response was, you know start the 9 starters now
and catch up later and one I guess we would just kind of time
to know how like how you guys would feel about doing that at
this point of the season so early.
I mean it makes sense to me. It definitely doesn't feel right
because you're like, oh shit, I might get really behind on

(01:13:58):
stage, but how do you guys handle any situation you find
yourself in with that, with having no closers to throw or
just that that next in line kindof guy in an all my Championship
12 team league, yeah. Usually before I first thing I
ever do for the weekend is look at my lineup and add a picture

(01:14:18):
to it because someone's going toget her on Sunday just or even
Monday like. So I have 10 guys.
I figure out do I have 10 guys I'm willing to throw for that
weekend? And I really start from there
And if there's, you know, StevenMats is you know, going to
Atlanta, you're like, OK, I'm not going to use him.
I got to find someone else to gowith.

(01:14:40):
I just start putting my bids in that way and maybe I'm not Maybe
Phil with throw mats at Atlanta,but I think eventually unlike my
drop down list I'm going to start hitting the middle
relievers or some guys to take achance with what saves this

(01:15:01):
early in the season I'm kind of loaded up on starters so it's
usually not so much of a problembecause I'm trying to get trying
to figure out who's good and I'mhave bare minimum hitters on my
team. But I don't know.
I, I I'll it'll happen sometime this year.
And then right now there seems to be some starters that we kind

(01:15:22):
of like. They're readily available.
Paul Blackburn still out there, people been bidding on.
It's like, well, they'll at least try him.
But I'm guessing in probably about two weeks it's just going
to be like there's like one pitcher that people are going to
be after and the rest of it's just going to be garbage.
Just kind of the hope right now is to try to get those starters
before then. But I don't know, are we really

(01:15:43):
going to go after any of the guys at Colorado?
I don't. I don't think that's going to be
way maybe we'll stream one if they're going to Oakland or
something but I don't know to kind of get back to it I guess.
I don't know. I I would throw some middle
relievers if there's just just horrible options.
Otherwise, and. And on the flip real quick, what
would you use to determine like if you had that third closer?

(01:16:08):
Are you starting him no matter what, or do you feel like you
fall behind in case too much? Like if you have three legit
closers, are you just throwing them in there right now?
Yeah, I'm throwing them in. Yeah, they got the job.
They can be hurt you nothing. So mad when you like will lose a
closer and it's like you've got another one on the bench or you
just don't know when the saves are going to come.

(01:16:28):
Just get the saves while you canand you can start streaming some
stars later or start trying to find them more.
And the other thing I kind of found out too is with usually
your ratios really kind of move up because you're dropping that
7 starter. Like if you got 3 closers that
your team's looking really good and you can kind of stream later
because all your ratios will be in good shape.

(01:16:51):
What if it's an amazing two stepversus like your third closer?
Are you passing that up too if? You have an amazing third step.
I mean, probably, maybe someone else should be sitting.
I mean, I don't know. Yeah.
I get it. It's like you kind of have to
make the call sometime, but my God, I don't have.
I'm not sitting amazing 2 steps at this point in the season,

(01:17:12):
man. I ran out freaking Gavin
Williams in the league. Like, what the fuck am I doing,
dude? It's been.
Rough. Yeah.
If your 7th starting pitcher hasan amazing two step and you're
between your 7th starting pitcher and your third closer,
you should shut the fuck up. Do not pitch in the Do not post
in the discord. Do not do not post in the

(01:17:35):
discord. I'm struggling between this
really good pitcher who has two incredible starts at the white
stocks and then at Oakland versus.
I have 3 closers on this team. I don't know what to do.
Please help me man. First overall in online
championships, the answer is go fuck yourself, Curtis or Drew.

(01:17:56):
We don't want to hear these questions.
For the rest of us, I agree with.
I agree with Jeff Banks and and Phil because I think Phil's
answer is the right answer. You banks.
So there's 222 guiding principles here.
Bank stats when you can bank stats if you can get to your 70

(01:18:16):
saves in the in the first half of the season awesome they count
they're they don't get to take them away from you.
Similarly, if you have no closers, you can't conjure them
from thin air like you can't just wish cast that Hunter
Harvey is going to get 4 saves this week, so I should play
Hunter Harvey when you don't believe that's actually true.

(01:18:39):
To bank the starting stats, all you can do is 26 times or 27
times depending on the season, put the best line up you
possibly can for that week and move on to the next week.
And if the 9 pitchers you happento have that week, or the best 9
pitchers are all starting pitchers because you're closers
got hurt, or it's bednar or it'sone of the other closers who

(01:19:01):
isn't quite working out right now, then do 9 starting pitchers
and look next weekend whether there's now a closer I can pick
up to change the equation. But if you're 9 best pitchers
are starting pitchers, play those guys.
Like that's it's. And if the answer is there's a
middle reliever out there who's better than one of the starting
pitchers, grab that middle reliever for a dollar.

(01:19:23):
Like if you don't have nine goodstarting pitchers.
There's nothing wrong with starting a high leverage middle
reliever. It can work out really well for
you. But but yeah, if you have good
nine, good starting pitchers, play 9 good starting pitchers.
Yeah. And I think Jeff Jeff wrote a
great article too about how to try to find those middle relief
options for that following week.And you know it takes a little

(01:19:44):
extra legwork and trying to pay attention for the usage on
Sunday of the believers. But it's it it can go a long way
and and determining the you knowtrying to get that that Monday
save from the you know the next in line guy where the closers
work three out of four it's it'sa shot in the dark sometime
because. A lot of your day is reliant on

(01:20:06):
that. No, this was supposed to happen
today. Pierce Johnson was supposed to
get this saved. Not fuck Michael Tonkin, you
know? And you screaming at the TV.
That could really lead you some bad ways.
But cool, good stuff. Awesome stuff, guys.
Appreciate the another beautifullaunch angle episode here.
Any pardon words before we get out of here?

(01:20:30):
No. Guess not.
Beautiful thing. All right, everyone.
Thanks for listening to another episode, launching a podcast for
Rob Silver. Jeff Timmerman, I'm Rob D Catch
you later.

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EP 200 | Spencer Strider, Injuries in Fantasy and Small Sample Reactions

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}EP 200 | Spencer Strider, Injuries in Fantasy and Small Sample Reactions