EP 202 | Bat Speed Tracking & Stats Since 2023 ASB w/ Guest Jordan Rosenblum - Launch Angle

Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
Incoming pitch Spin rate of 2500RPM, 95.6 mph.
Adjusting swing 12°. Proceed with launch angle.
Welcome back to the Launch Anglepodcast.
This is Rob D the Deadpool hitter.
Catch me on X that Deadpool hitter I'll be bringing in Jeff

(00:21):
Zimmerman very shortly and we'llbe something out Rob Silver this
week. But don't worry, we brought an
adequate very fantastic guest. Mr. Jordan Rose the balloon.
You can catch his work on fan graft, scout the stat line and
prospects live. We talk about some returning
injury players and how they can possibly affect their fantasy

(00:41):
outlook going forward. We talk about bat tracking
stuff. Jordan has worked on some
articles on fan graphs about it,and we kind of get into how we
can use it for pitchers and hitters and all that fun stuff.
And then we also take a look at a little dive into how players
have been doing since the All Star break of last year.
So almost a full season worth ofgames, Not completely, but just

(01:04):
trying to point out any surprising bats, surprisingly
good pitchers or players that weexpect more of and aren't doing
well. And then we get into some
Patreon side of the podcast, which won't be available on the
public side. But if you are a member, you'll
be able to hear it over on the pool here to Patreon.
Remember to come down there, youget all the additional launch
angle podcast as well as the podcast.

(01:25):
I do box score covering deep, deep dives into some new
starting pitcher that might be pitching well, as well as fab
podcast if you pay for the uppertier.
So come check it out. We have a fantastic discord as
well. Hope you enjoyed the show with
Jordan and here's the pitch. Hi, welcome on into another

(01:49):
episode of the launch angle podcast.
I'm Rob D the Deadpool hitter. I'm here with one of my Co host,
Jeff Zimmerman. Jeff, what's going on, buddy?
Not much as just running the boyaround.
I do have to tell you a story. Last night he was at a soccer
game, kind of a really friendly scrimmage, and he kicked a
corner and kind of ran in there and the ball was still bouncing

(02:11):
around and one guy went to clear.
It hit my son right in the groinarea and it bounced back in for
a score. So it.
Was like, like elated, but stilllike, wait, I just got hit in
the in the, in the nads and likethe whole, both sides that were
playing just like were on the ground kind of laughing trying

(02:31):
to figure out what was going on.So it like, well, 'cause it was
tough to see. I didn't even exactly know
that's what was hit 'cause it kind of where you're far away
and a bunch of kids in the way. But it was it was an interesting
way to score, to say the least. Yeah, I mean that's that's
definitely take one off the off the old area and and and go back

(02:54):
into the goal. I guess you got a goal in assess
for that, right? Give him a hat trick.
Oh boy. Oh, that's that's great.
That's great. We're missing one of our Co host
this week. Rob's over is truly busy guy,
but we got Jordan Rosenblum stepping in for him.
You can find them over at Fan Graphs.

(03:15):
Prospect, 5 stat, stat line, stat, the scout line.
I know it's at that line scout. I was getting that mixed up, but
Jordan is super into fantasy baseball.
Whole bunch of other stuff as well.
But we're happy to have him hereon the party.
He's a good human being to talk to.
What's up, Jordan? Hey guys, happy to be here.
And I know with Rob Gunn, you need to fulfill the at least one

(03:39):
Jordan Peterson critic of the three podcast guests.
So I'm happy to fill fill his shoes in that way.
Today there we go there we go aslong as you could bring in some
some part of Rob that that mirrors him.
I know you're probably not the cursing type so well, but we'll.
See. We'll see.
We'll we'll see good, good. All right, I like I like to hear

(04:01):
that. I like to hear that.
We're going to go over some newsand notes 1st and then we'll get
into some backtrack and stuff that Jordan had been interested
in, get to hear Jeff's opinion on that as well.
And then we're going to do a little bit of a quick peek into
players since last All Star break to now kind of guys that
have been maybe surprisingly doing well, surprisingly doing
bad and we haven't realized it. But first we're looking at Edwin

(04:23):
Diaz come back for the Mets Lastnight looked good.
Hit 100 miles an hour watching the game look pretty crisp.
What are you guys expectations for him rest of season?
Do you think he's going to go back into being lights out
closer? Do you think he stays with the
Mets? If the Mets start to maybe, you
know, didn't blow up their team a little bit?
What's your expectations for Diaz going forward?

(04:45):
Jordan, it's Jeff 1st and then you right.
That's that's the way the that'sthe way the show runs.
Just wanted to let you know, OK,Jeff, where you go.
I think the Mets are going to give him every kind of runway
they can to let let him succeed.They've got him let me see his

(05:07):
contract ends in 2027. So I don't, I really don't think
they're going to be able to movehim.
If someone would take him, I think they would be gladly let
it happen. The one thing it was is Diaz did
come back with a little bit of more velocity last night.

(05:29):
He was really down this year. He was really wasn't back up to
his elite levels, but it's stillhe averaged over 98 miles an
hour in that start. I'm pretty sure he hasn't done
that yet this year. There may have been one game.
I'm kind of eyeballing the it's like a graph form.
So it might be might be a coupleof them, but he was definitely
this has been his best all year.So I think a lot of teams, like

(05:53):
you said, they're not going to go after like Diaz is going to
have to kind of be lights out ifany team's even going to
consider him. Like I think a lot of them will
just go after middle relievers that are better instead of
having to get the, you know, a closer from till year 2027 and
just hope you can maintain it. So I think throw them in your
rosters. They're going to hope for the

(06:13):
best. But I think he'll be with the
Mets, which is actually might begood.
At least he doesn't. He won't go to a team where he
might be splitting the job with someone else.
Jordan, what do you think? Yeah, I would agree there.
So Steamer has him now at like 10th best reliever by ERA rest
of season. My own projection like redraft

(06:36):
has is similar, actually more bullish I think more like close
to the first, like the number one reliever.
So I think he's fine. I think it's kind of reminds me
of Aaron Judge, how he started off slow and and there was a
bunch of tweets like trying to assign a narrative to his
struggles and then he like blew the blew blew the top off.

(06:57):
I think it'll be similar like for Diaz, he's had a couple of
high ERA years, but our relief job is such a volatile job
anyway that you can't really look at ERA.
Even if he didn't have the velocity back, I think he would
be fine. He'd revise expectations a
little bit downward, but I thinkhe'd still be elite.
But given the velocity looked really good yesterday, I think I

(07:17):
can't really worry worry about him, although it's always
stressful watching your closers go for saves.
I, I can't even, I can't even usually watch myself, but but I
I'm as I'm as confident in him as I am in anyone.
I I like that. I like those words there.
And yeah, I mean, it was the highest average.
It was all season. And like you just said it, it,
it wasn't back to his two like 2022 levels, but I it looked

(07:43):
good last night. It had like the I think I've
heard people talk about this before, like how they explain
like late movement, but like he had that it like the last the
last bit of footage, it was justpopping like I haven't seen that
in a while. It's so funny you said that
Jordan it tapping a narrative onsomething, right.
It's just what what would the world be if we weren't doing

(08:06):
that for every little bit? Like guy goes through a two week
struggle like Aaron Judge and it's like, it's totally it's
this, you know, it's like it's Juan Soto bothering him.
It's like all this weird stuff and it's like, no, he just got
into a real slump and it happensto everybody.
That's it. All.
Right, moving along here. A couple of other injury stuff,

(08:28):
though. The Cardinals got a bunch of
hurt guys coming back soon. Wilson Contreras, Loras Newbar,
Tommy Edmond. And I'm surprised too, I guess
that just given the main events,how you know sometimes you're
like willing to stash certain players and maybe not others.
But Wilson Contreras at 100% in the mains, Newbar is at 60%.

(08:52):
Edmonds at 54. They've been holding him in my
share team with Dylan White all season long.
So seeing the 54 makes me like, oh, man, like why we've been
holding this the whole time. But I mean, the expectation for
him coming back, I think is justto get a player that can bring
some, you know, some speed and power to good average.
But on over on the OC side, the online championship, 54% owned

(09:15):
for Wilson, 43% Lars, 36% OC. Is this like the week to get
their ownership level like, you know, up?
Is this the week to start stashing these guys?
And are you surprised at any of these numbers?
And which guy would you expect Ithink to give you?
Well, actually, who's the biggest concern out of all of
these three in July? Because they're coming off some

(09:37):
decent, you know, decent injuries, no large with two
oblique injuries. Now you know Jeff, what do you
think? Edmond does it.
It's just such AI mean it's so many setbacks, but I kind of
think he's just trying to like it was one of those ones like,
oh, he's available and like as soon as he had like the first
set back, I'm like, I'm out. It was just but this is the time

(09:59):
to kind of like, I think Wilson and the O CS was even lower,
like should kind of look at likethe curve.
I think people were starting to add him in now that, you know,
put him on the bench, have an anextra catcher if you have a
really bad one and know he's coming new bar.
The one issue with him is I don't, I guess he's going to be

(10:22):
in right field. Like it's a playing time issue
is kind of spreading everything around with the way Burleson's
playing right now. Carlson, but and then if Edmond
comes back, where does Edmond play and who does he push away?
Because Gorman and Wynne are both playing good.
So does Edmond go to the outfield with ADH Donovan also

(10:43):
trying to working his way in different spots?
So that's only kind of my issue with Newbar is I don't know, I
guess I'm kind of a Burleson fanright now.
I've got a lot invested in him and I'm just like, wait, I'm
like, I'm not going to be losingplaying time here.
But he's actually, he's been good.
I just don't, that's my issue with Newbar is like just the way

(11:06):
everything's going to work out. He's probably going to sit once
a week even if he's 100% healthy.
I think they could both coexist.I mean, when they were both in
the lineup, like Newpar didn't miss.
He he only missed one game all season that came versus a lefty,
but he was in there every game. And Burleson, I mean, I think I
think there's room for both of them because I think they I

(11:27):
mean, just given the state of their team, they they have to
find a way to get both of them in there consistently every day.
You know, I don't know, but that's a good point to bring up,
especially with Donovan having to float around, you know, the
outfield or second and then Edmond coming back.
It's a good point. Jordan, what do you think about
these guys? Jeff, did you have something

(11:47):
else or? No, no, no, go ahead.
Yeah. So with Contreras, I think it
was nice to see that he was playing pretty much every day.
I guess both the Contreras teamshave decided they're not going
to arrest their catcher Contreras's at all this year.
So that's that's kind of good that you could also maybe play
him at utility if you already have a good catcher situation.

(12:08):
And I, I it seems like he'll be back maybe next week.
So so yeah, if he's available inthose he's then that sounds
good. I'm also Co managing a team with
Dylan and I was able to convincehim to drop Edmond.
So where where you failed? I I succeeded, but I do think.
Now, man, please. Now you're gonna, oh, you just
stabbed a knife in my heart there.
No, but I'm actually sad. I'm actually saddened cause
'cause I I feel bad I but but I think now it would be a good

(12:32):
time. It seems like the he's finally
getting more positive updates with him and Alex Cobb this
year. It's been crazy.
I, I drafted those guys in most of my leagues and they didn't
really work out. They've had so many like
starting and stopping, so much starting and stopping.
But it seems like now they're maybe turning in the positive
direction, but it's hard to be too confident.
And then new bar. I checked the Baseball

(12:54):
Prospectus like injury database and it seemed like 29 days was
the median for this like obliquestrain.
And so the outlook isn't too oblique bleak.
But but like if you look at JoanDuran, he was like it.
It took him like 40 days. So maybe maybe like first week,

(13:15):
first week of July or something,Which in my 15 teamers, new bar
would be a big upgrade. I also have Burleson, but new
bar would be a big upgrade on anybody else in the wire.
So I think now could be a good time to stash could could be
good time to stash for me. I'm I'm desperate for offense in
some leagues too, so. Yeah, I would agree with you.

(13:36):
I mean, and I know new bar has atendency to get like like, oh,
like a lot of people, I think think he's a little bit
overhyped, but just really makesgood swing decisions.
He battles up the ball a lot, you know, strong hard hit rates,
you know, doesn't swing in mass.It's like a really good like if
you just look at the profile in general, you just thought the

(13:58):
output would be a lot stronger, you know, than it is.
It's right now it's just being buoyed a little bit by like a
rising ground ball rate. But everything else is pretty
strong underneath the hood. And I I kind of agree with you.
I think he's a pretty big upgrade and 15 teamers.
Interesting point about Wilson Contreras at utility.
I like that because I don't know, I was looking at my team

(14:19):
to have. I have one league that has JTR
that just got hurt and Wilson still available out there and
I'm just like, man, it's like even if I have to take a zero
for two weeks, I might just do that and try to pick up
Contreras and then have JTR whenhe comes back with Contreras.
And that might be the move. But yeah, they they are willing

(14:41):
to play him every day. And Herrera has been really
good. He's been playing every day too.
It just seems like whoever is the best catcher there, they're
going to round up every day. And Herrera just been a little
bit disappointing. I think power output.
I think everyone wanted a littlebit more power from him, but
he's, you know, he he's been allI think you can ask for as a
replacement there. Jorge Polanco is about to go
into rehab assignment. He's just like an interesting

(15:04):
player because as I dug a littlebit into him, I just feel like
he been smashing fastballs his whole career.
And then this year it's just plummeted.
And just wondering if that just stems from him, you know,
getting older, his hammy injuries.
But he's just been so consistenton that level of hammering 4

(15:25):
seamers. And then like everything just
fell off the like, it's just allacross the board on the four
seamers have passed. But you guys have any interest
in him left in like any four massive leagues?
Because the Mariners do have some floating pieces around that
they could move around. They don't have to play him
every day. But I think if Hoi Hoanco is
healthy, you'd want him in your lineup every day.

(15:47):
What do you think, Jeff? Yeah, if only we had batswing
data from like two years or from.
Ask and. Then knew if he was slowing down
or not, but it's now with Tim. I don't know if if it's the case
with everyone else, but it seemslike middle infield.

(16:07):
I'm just kind of able to. There's no platoons going on and
I'm able to like have decent options or I don't know in a lot
of places if he's like an upgrade for me.
Right. I think that that's one issue
with him, but I'm sure there's teams that are hurting for it.
Just kind of have to know what you're getting.
Like it's some power projectionskind of.

(16:30):
I mean, this year he's been, of course, horrible at batting
average, but it's some years it's it's been decent.
I just don't know why the projections are hating them so
much. Maybe they're just really buying
into the I mean, his strikeout rate has increased.
Cowboys, it's been four straightseasons, it was 15% in 2020 and
it's up to 31% this year doubled.

(16:52):
So I think he's a different player and I really just think I
I wouldn't want to start him. But I think in some cases, like
with an injury, you have to havehim as a fill in.
I think he's fine. But man, it's kind of a tough
roster 'cause he just doesn't doanything right now.
Even if he gets the batting average back up until like the

(17:13):
two 4250 area. Yeah, and I I think with I'm
kind of in there with middle infield, it's hard to find guys
who play every day and Blanco isstill playing most days.
So just for that reason alone, I'll be happy to take the at
bats. I think the talent, like he's

(17:33):
past peak with the talent, but Ithink he should be good enough.
And he still owned an 81% of of 15 or of main main events.
The bat speed data. So I'm looking at the BA data
from 2023, which is like preliminary data.
And they changed the methodologysince then.
So it's like not apples to apples, but we still look at it.

(17:53):
So they had him at 68 mph in 2023 and then he's at 70 ish
this year. So but but the with the
methodology change, everybody gained like 3.
So like league average is 3 higher.
So he's actually once you account for the everybody
gaining 3, his gain of two is more like down one.

(18:16):
Yes, OK, but it's but it's fairly it isn't anything like so
major that you should expect thehuge drop off, but but it's
aligned with the the idea that he's like past, maybe past his
peak. And then I also split the data
this year into like first half, second-half Batsby data and he's
quite similar both halves. So 69.6 in half in the

(18:40):
second-half, which is post May 7and then 69.4 mph in the first
half. Yeah, with all that, I think I,
I will take it. I'll take it.
Basically any everyday played appearances I I can get.
Do you have that by because I know like, you know, it was
brought up by Tom Tango, like the Ellie thing, like the lefty

(19:01):
righty, how much of a differenceit is for him versus lefties and
righties? I know Jorge Blanco just with
Twitter. I don't know if it's any
different between lefty and righty, but that is something
that intrigued me. I think the most about the bat
speed, the the switch hitters, you know, because I think that's
something this really see how guys do from both sides of the

(19:21):
plate, like Lindor. I I think it's pretty pretty
consistent from like both sides where I I was kind of, you know,
shocked to see the differences of some other players.
But Hawako, I mean, his preseason steamer projection
from OPS went from 7:44 to 692. So like you said, Jeff, they're
they're totally looking at that maybe that rolling trend of K

(19:45):
percentage as as a reason to, you know, dislike them a little
bit more than the past. But I'm wondering how much
interest he got this weekend in fab leagues, like you said,
Jordan 81% only. But you know, in those small
leagues, sometimes you just get those bigger bids.
And I'm just wondering like how much a guy like him would go
for, you know, with, with such a, you know, like a competitive

(20:09):
bid. He's going to be up there on the
player page as you go look to your free agents and he's his.
He brings that name value too, so.
OK, well, he's not available in my main, but I lost story.
So I'm kind of desperate for middle infield there.
I think I would easily go at least like 50.
But I'm also kind of poor now, so I might have to fire up the
money, fire up the money printer.

(20:31):
But I think I would be very comfortable going up to 5060 for
somebody like that. But yeah, if I had, if I, if I
was a little more shrewd earlieron, then I could go, well, a
little higher. But I don't think it's necessary
to go too much higher. But that's just a gut feel sort
of thing. And then I looked at his, I
pulled up the bat speed. So he's 68 mph from the right

(20:53):
side and and 70 mph from the left side.
So a bit a bit better from the left side.
Yeah, that's, that's interesting.
I, I, I tend, yeah, I have to look that.
I think that's the thing I'm going to look at with the bat
speed in the offseason just to to put the tendency to have
faster bat speed and like maybe better, better quality from one

(21:15):
side. Or because I know like a lot of
switch hitters go to the right side and have better like
contacting average, but they hitfor more power on the left side.
That would be a little a good dig.
But Polanco, I mean, just his three-year average of like last
three years before the season, 11% Bowery, you know, 38% hard

(21:36):
hit. That's kind of hard to dismiss
as as just, you know, being done.
I think there's something still left in there.
So all right, we're going to go into this backtracking stuff.
I know Jordan, you did some workon Fangraph with it in that look
into the first half and the second-half performance.
So if you want to talk a little bit about that, you know that

(21:57):
work that you did first and thenyou know we can go into some
other maybe note that you have about it and me and Jeff could
ask a question based off of that.
Yeah. So Marcos, sort of preliminary
in a sense that there's kind of like a been a search for the
golden quality of contact metricover the years.
So whether it's way back when like average exit velocity or 10

(22:21):
years ago, I guess it would justbe like homers or isolated
power. And then we moved to hard hit
rate, then to barrel rate. And now the latest thing would
be average string speed. But and I, and I looked at it
and it's sort of comparable to barrel rate, but I think barrel
rate was still was still better in, in my look in that article.
But then also sort of I did thatarticle as sort of a projector

(22:46):
to try to think of how I might one day incorporate average bat
speed or other some of the othermetrics that they have like
blast and squared up into a projection system.
So if you think of like the bat versus the bad X, we don't know
exactly what goes into it, but we know static static cast goes
into the bad X. So maybe the bat has like
traditional power metrics like Homer's and double S and so on.

(23:07):
And then the bad X probably throws in bow rate and it could
throw in hard hit rate or something like that.
I think you you next year you'llsee similar with swing speed
where you could just throw that in there as well.
But I think it's hard to do it still.
It's hard to do it now. And the other thing, the other
thing, it's hard to do it now before we get a full year of
data, but the other thing that Ithink is interesting.

(23:29):
So Tango mentioned in a tweet how it'd be very reasonable to
like make an X woba style metricusing bat speed.
So like basically shows the expected outcomes given certain
bat speed and maybe given a certain squared up and, and, and
things like that. I think that is really
interesting. I, I, I sort of try to do a
quick and dirty metric for this podcast, but I, I failed.

(23:53):
But I think that that would be agood, a good next step.
I think it'd be interesting to see.
OK, so and it would just be based on bat speed, that's it
like the. No.
Well, so, so I looked at they have like league average outcome
when you square it up versus when you don't square it up,

(24:13):
when you square it up with a certain bat speed versus when
you don't square it up. So you could, you could break it
up into those types of buckets or when you have a blast versus
when you don't have a blast. And then you could assign the
sort of expected outcome from, let's say, square it up with a
certain bat speed. And then you could have an X

(24:34):
will given, given a certain bat speed and and given that you
squared it up or that you didn'tsquare it up or something like
that. OK, but it's interesting because
squaring it up, so if you use the stack cast search, you can
do a lot, a lot of kind of deep dive here.
And if you look at the across the league, if you square it up

(24:56):
and it's also a blast. The the average Roba is like 700
across the league. But if you square it up and it's
not a blast, the average Roba islike 240.
Then if you look at like Luis Arise, the gap is much the gap
is much smaller. So he squares it up a lot more.
He's like the league leader in squaring it up and and and if if

(25:22):
he squares it up and it's a blast, it's like average wuba is
like 400, so lower than league average.
But if he squares it up and it'snot a blast, it's still 330 ish
ish average wuba. So he's still like, that's still
above average, like regardless when he squares it up.
But yeah, I don't have the definitions squared up and blast
on, on off hand. They're they're actually a

(25:45):
little bit confusing, but you can find those easily on Savant.
Maybe maybe Jeff has some more thoughts on that.
Yeah, they are confusing becauseI think it's like it's the blast
also determined on like how fastit was expected to go based on
the pitch, right, If if I'm not mistaken.
Yeah, that sounds right and. There's, there's, there's some,

(26:07):
there's some factor of that in there, like the expectation that
this ball get hit like like thishard with the average velocity
coming in or something like that.
I, I know it is kind of confusing, especially when you
try to look for like the competitive swing definition.
I I, I was like, it's used in like every part of the
definition of other things, but I'm like, well, where's the

(26:28):
definition of competitive swing,You know?
Yeah, it's, it's pretty it's pretty wild, but that's that,
that's good. I'm, I'm excited to see all you,
all the smart guys figure out what's, what's useful or not.
Because I, I, I have trouble on the search function sometimes
with like the parameters and stuff like that, 'cause I'll

(26:50):
just set the wrong things and it'll come out where it's like
spitting out the wrong percentages.
So I'm always like asking like, all right, what, what am I
setting wrong here? You know, but that's, that's
interesting. So you'll find some, some
usefulness out of blast. What about the competitive
swings? Is there anything useful in

(27:10):
that? I think that's more just like to
like clean the data to make surethat they're not, they're not
having these outlier swings likecheck swings make, make sure
they're throwing them out so that we have like clean, clean
data points to compare to. Beyond that, I don't.
Probably not. Have you guys looked at anything

(27:32):
on the pitching side or have youbeen just focused everything on
batting or do you think that it's just not going to be as
useful? Maybe some data will, but maybe
not as useful. Jeff.
Just one thing going back to thehitting, I think the one thing
that like all the blasts and allthat, like there's no launch
angle or bat path likes information.

(27:56):
So when we have Yandy Diaz just blowing up worms like 2 feet in
front of the in front of him there where he just hits
everything on the ground versus in the air, I think that's one
component that is just missing from the blast.
And I kind of wonder if that's, if we look at guys changing is
like that, that's going to have to also be a component where

(28:19):
it's like a batter still able tohit it hard, but they're not
able to loft it. It's like those two changes is
hitting the ball hard and in theair, like those two components
have to be kind of looked at. But As for pitchers, I think
there may be more here like they're able to with some of

(28:41):
their pitches be able to make weaker contact.
And the deal is, is again, we just don't have comparable data
from season to season. We have a partial in season
right now and it's just we're we're going to way over analyze

(29:03):
first half to second-half information this offseason.
It's like, oh, this one improvedit, this one didn't.
This one went up, this one went down and it's going to be, it's
just, I think a lot of it's justgoing to be noise for this year.

(29:23):
I think that's fair to say because you can't compare it off
of anything. Yeah, I think if you so I looked
at the first half and second-half, just what we have
so far. And the main thing that the main
way I'm using it now is like if guys just came back from injury,
are they health? Are they like fully healthy or
they're not fully healthy? Kind of using it to infer like

(29:43):
health basically. And if you look at a lot of the
biggest gainers and decliners, they a lot of the ones that I
noticed were like guys that havebeen like recently injured or or
recently returning from injury. So these are the gainers, the
biggest gainers all between 1:00and 2:00 mph added from in the
second-half relative to in the first half.

(30:03):
And George Springer, Steve Kwan,Brandon Lau, Saya Suzuki and
Nick Castellanos, then the decliners who got Luis Robert,
TJ Friedl, Manzardo Alvarez, Benintendi, Francisco Alvarez,
Benintendi, Este Ruiz and Nupar.So I think most of those guys
have have are either returning from injury or recently got

(30:26):
hurt. And it kind of makes me feel
more confident that they're, they're, they're fully over the
injury or on the, on the flip side that they're not
potentially not fully, fully over the, the injury.
I like that. So me so maybe that's something
you in the future, you could definitely look at like an

(30:46):
expected bat speed return, you know, like when they come back
from injury or maybe even depending on the injury itself.
I like I like that. I think that's the way to look
at. Yeah, I think you can just use
it for qualitative judgments. Like do they seem to be like
Saya Suzuki? He's one of the biggest gainers
in the second-half. So he's probably put whatever

(31:08):
sort of injury scare he's had behind him.
Luis Robert is one of the decliners.
So then I'm a little more concerned about, a little more
concerned about that. But I think it's for qualitative
judgments. You can, you can make those sort
of judgments with those guys like you're going to be starting
those guys in most leaves regardless anyway.
So, so it's not necessarily thathelpful yet, but but that shows

(31:32):
like a one way that you could potentially use it, I think.
Interesting, very interesting. And with all right, so I, I, I
pulled up the definition becauseit, it, it was kind of bugging
me. Squared up ball.
Each swing has a Mac detainable exit velocity based on the speed
on the swing and the pitch. If the swing attains at least

(31:52):
80% of that exit velocity, it counts as a squared up swing.
A swing more than 80% ^2 up can happen on the sweet spot of the
bat only for a blast. A blast that a blasted swing is
one that is squared up and has afast swing.
Squared up swing doesn't have a bat speed minimum.

(32:14):
A blast does. Squaring up a ball is good.
Squaring it up with a fast bat speed is even better.
So I've just I I get confused because I've been using the Alex
Chamberlain blast for the last two years.
You know, like his version of blast.
And when I hear this new blast, I'm like, oh, wait a minute,

(32:35):
there's a new blast out the official blast.
But and so you also have batsby batsby gainers from the the past
two years. Jordan, like that you Yeah.
So in the notes. OK.
Yeah, yeah. So if you're if you're comparing

(32:55):
to the the Baseball America dataand this these guys, the gainers
all gained like more than more than the league average.
So you can think of them more aspercentile gainers since they're
since the methodology is different.
But the biggest ones were Nolan Shanawal, who still was below
average, but was less of like a joke by bat speed with the new
data. Then you have Esteuri Johann

(33:17):
Rojas and Este Aries barrel rate.
Barrel rate is also way up this year.
So I think he's looked like lesslike a wet noodle this year,
although his strikeouts are up. But I think overall I, I'm, I'm
quite intrigued with him and, and he's, he's just started
strengthening exercises on his wrist.

(33:38):
But the A's didn't, weren't, they weren't really playing him
at all. So I think they need like, we
need like a management intervention to like force him
into the line up, which I don't know if it's going to happen,
probably not going to happen. And, and Johann Rojas was
another one. Corbin Carroll was one of the
biggest gainers and he hasn't, he also hasn't struck out now in
like maybe 20, 20 plate appearances, unless he struck

(33:59):
out yesterday. I have to double check that.
But he had a 20 plate appearancestreak going.
Tatis was another one as he's another year removed from the
shoulder injury. But yeah, I think if anybody I
think it goes, it goes against, it's a shot against The sort of
injury narrative for Carroll that his bat speed is is good
and and it's way up year over year.

(34:21):
I think he's looking looking much better lately.
He is and I saw like I saw a video breakdown on MLB Central
and Derosa was just showing how he was striding toward the mound
a lot more like wasn't like waiting and getting grounded in
his back leg. He was more like front heavy.
And so it was just wasn't getting like the impact that you

(34:45):
want to see on the ball. And so like, like you mentioned
with with Ruiz, the bowel percentage is up for, for yoga
Han Rojas, it's also up. I mean, it didn't have to go up
that much. You only had one barrel last
year. But you know, from from 1:00 to
5:00 and pretty much the same amount of plate appearances, 30

(35:07):
more plate appearances. It's pretty good, as well as the
hard hit rate. And for him, because I think the
expectancy is a lot of people said like, Oh, if you're, if
you're going to swing harder, though, you're you're you're
your K percentage might drop or you're swinging strike rate
might drop because you're swinging faster.
But for his it, you know, kind of went back to his minor league
levels and not the first levels we saw from last year.

(35:29):
And that from him just being better because he's seeing more
pitches. Or if that from it's interesting
how he improved the bat speed, hit the ball harder, and it
also, you know, lowered his K rate the second time around.
So that that is interesting to see.
Good to see Tatis, you know, finally, you know, boosted up.
I think it's I think it's only amatter of time before he just
goes on a tear. Yeah.

(35:50):
And I think, I think for henceforth we should refer to
this dilemma where you swing harder, but you you potentially
swing and miss more. I think we should refer to that
as the the Walner dilemma since he he's like second in bats
feed, yeah, behind Giancarlo, but he's also striking out like
50% of the time in AAA. So that the the Walter the
Walner dilemma I think is prettycatchy for me.

(36:12):
It is. It is the Walner dilemma.
It's it's it's it's great. That's a fantastic documentary.
And yeah, for him, it's just like, I think the, I think the
two teams that are holding on tohim in the main event are just
doing so just strictly off the bat speed.
They're like, wait a minute, he comes back.
I got this guy. Yeah.
But for him, like half of his plate appearances are walks or

(36:34):
strike. That's so much just, you know,
did not happen, You know, like any bad at balls.
And for your decliners, we have a guy that the Dodgers recently
just acquired and Kevin BGO, I mean, they're gonna, they're
gonna turn him into a stud. Yeah, I mean they said they,
they said they're like analyticsguys or their scouts saw

(36:56):
something with the swing that they could change.
So maybe one can dream on him being like a a nice strong sided
platoon bat, which is which is dreaming a lot more modestly
than we used to on on Vizio. So Vizio.
They couldn't fix Cody Ballingerthey go.
Or they could fix Kevin BC Interesting.

(37:16):
Skepticism is is warranted. Interesting stuff.
I can't wait to see more stuff on the bat speed, I think as I
just wish it happened in the offseason.
I just don't have the time to like sit down and really dig
into the stuff that I that just I haven't a a dock running of
just like stuff that I intuitively I find like just

(37:36):
watching baseball. What what might make sense to
just look at for fantasy, but I just don't have a time.
That's what happens when you have to set 3030 lineups twice a
week and do a bunch of fab. He's just not going to have that
time to get into it. But all right, so let's look
into some players since either last year's All Star break or
your 365 calendar days. I know we both looked at some

(37:59):
different stuff, but I think we'll get to the same, you know,
conclusion. So all that batter's first.
I just wanted to throw out some quick notes that I saw though
since last year's All Star Break, Gunner Henderson is fifth
in home runs. Just found that fascinating.
I know he's blasted him now, butjust to see that overall number
since last year's All Star Breakis pretty good.

(38:21):
William Contreras is 9th in run.So like you alluded to Jordan
playing every day and just doingso much at the catch position
that we can covet. And Jay Ram is 11th in stolen
bases over that time, which I thought was was was pretty wild
to see because he's a guy. I think everyone was like, you

(38:42):
know, like, ah, he might be on the tail end, maybe falls out of
the first round. He kind of did.
But thirty stolen bases over that time, which is pretty
healthy for a guy that we thought were on the decline.
So we could do this any way you want.
You guys want to, you know, picka guy either on the good side or
the bad side, maybe talk about something surprisingly could be
a surprising batter that's doingwell or a very good batter that

(39:06):
you know, or very good player that maybe isn't doing so well.
We'll start with batters first and then we'll go to arms.
With batters, I think the one thing that I deal with in my
leagues is looking over I'll just go with like WRC plus as
like an overall talent level is trying to deal with the rabbits

(39:29):
that are getting you the stolen bases like Mikhail Garcia or
Brenton Doyle and still just notbeing productive on top of it.
So you're like, how long can they keep this going?
The interesting one is like overthe time frame, LA de la Cruise,
I set my minimum at 400 plate appearances.

(39:50):
It we you can go to a different ones, but he's like the 13th
worst hitter over that time frame with 400 plate
appearances. I mean, Alice Virgo's hitting
better than him produce. It's not with fantasy because
he's getting all those stolen bases, but as an actual hitter,
there's a lot. I mean, of the 147 people, I

(40:13):
mean there's like 130 of them that are hitting better than he
is. So it's kind of a.
It's just interesting to see howlong if some of those will keep
going that way. Another one that's just down
there and just been unproductiveand it's like I'm going to still
use him is Reindeer Rosarina. Oh, I know.
I have him. I have him on my list.

(40:33):
Yep, Yep. And it's just like, can you do
like what's going on? And I've looked through like any
notes of like hit by pitches or anything.
It just seems like he's it mightjust be an aging decline or an
injury. We don't know of like it.
It doesn't seem like it. He it seemed like he came into
the season unproductive and it'sjust not like, oh, this was the

(40:57):
day when it happened. It was just like, Nope, you're
just bad. The other great anomaly this
year, I can't believe we just didn't have like a days off from
work is when Brandon Rodgers finally got that stolen base.
You know, it was just like, it'slike, all right, it finally
happened after years and years of like you being a decent

(41:18):
speed, like not being like a complete 0IN speed and not
stealing a base. But it's the other one that's
crazy. It's just looking at the
strikeout rates of some of theseguys that people have had over
the years. Again, elite.
De La Cruz's third on the list, but you can just see some of

(41:38):
these guys where it's Geloff andSowinski and Julian where it's
just like a lot of these guys are having problems staying in
the majors, trying to having a problem keeping their job, but
they have to have at least some kind of power with them.
If you're going to have that strike out rate when you get
down a little bit further, you have to Oscar Hernandez, well,
if he's knocking the crap on theball, so adoles Garcia's so

(42:01):
Schwarber. So I think there's like a level
of power that teams will, exceptbefore a power that you have to
have, be able to just keep your job.
That makes sense. Yeah.
Arose Arena, the guy out of my with to his last 544 plate
appearances, A197 average, stillchipping in 19 steals, but only

(42:22):
15 homers and 6:50 OPS. It's it's it's it's pretty wild.
And I, I was reading something on him too, and when he was
talking about how he was gettingpitched to and like how hesitant
he was, um, first pictures 'cause like he said, he was
normally a patient guy, but teams were like attacking him in

(42:43):
his own earlier in the count. And he's normally the guy who
worked the count and he found himself like behind the count
more often. It just got to me thinking how
you write Jeff and you're miningthe news when someone says
something and then you just go to the stat and you're like,
well, you know, that's not what's happening.
You know, it's like my favorite part of mine in the news when
it's just like reveal, reveal that they're actually full of

(43:05):
shit. But it's it's I don't know, I
couldn't really come to a conclusive thing about his
behind the count rate and all that stuff.
But it's it's definitely, it's definitely not pretty when you
look at that and Sawinski as well.
Yeah, it's been brutal for him. Just K percentage and like you
said, just that just the abilityto stay on the field with your

(43:27):
WRC plus and the OPS. It's not it's not pretty, not
pretty at all. Jordan, who you who do you want
to bring up the guy? Any guys that are surprising to
you? Yeah.
Well, first, when Brendan, when Brendan Rodgers got that stolen
base here in Finland, people were singing from the balconies.
So it was big news. Next year.

(43:48):
But yeah, two guys that stood out to me.
So Royce Lewis is obviously likebeen crazy when he's on the
field, but his last 200 plate appearances now he's got a 189
WRC plus. That's tied with Aaron Judge for
the tops in the league. And then the other guy that
Seia's Suzuki, I didn't really realize that he had stepped it

(44:09):
up so much from this, like in this interval that we're
focusing on, but he's at 144 WRCplus.
And I, I had really high expectations for Seia when he
first came over. And then he, it was a bit of a
slow start where he wasn't really quite living up to his
projections. And, but then you always
remember that people always reminding you that, that

(44:31):
sometimes there's some adjustment period, but I still
get impatient. But now he's looking, I guess
he's looking better. And the other thing I looked at
is 'cause I think like Jeff, I'malso skeptical of this.
We talked about this in the DM, so that I'm also skeptical of
this sort of like last 365 splitor any sort of arbitrary
endpoint split. But I do think with stolen base
attempts, it's interesting to look at because that's something

(44:53):
that's very much like in a player's control to change
quickly. So I I have the stolen base
attempts per opportunity and thetop ten in this interval #1 is a
Steri then then Daren Blanco, then Jorge Matteo, then Pico
Armstrong, which is interesting to see it.
But it's a smaller that's only this year or 117 played

(45:16):
appearances, but he's available I think in some leagues too.
So it is it's attention grabbingJose Caballero, which if he can
withstand Taylor walls return like the playing time can still
be like at least 75%. I think he's been like a stud so
far this year. Then Ellie, then David Hamilton

(45:36):
and then Jacob Young, Trevor Story, Joe Adele.
So I think that there's mostly expected names there, but I I
think it's interesting. It's still interesting to look
at. Joe Adele, that's that pops a
little bit. I mean, I mean, I just, you
know, the angels have been so aggressive this year, but that's
that's still interesting is thathe made the that top ten there.
Yeah, it's nice to see you afteroveranalyzing spring training

(45:59):
stats that at least some of the angels actually actually kept
running right or Ren Heefo. Ren Heefo as well I guess is
running a lot but. Yeah, absolutely.
Hey, yeah, is definitely a guy Inoted as well because since last
year's All Star break, 296 average, 885 OPS.
And, you know, one thing I foundinteresting is he entered the

(46:22):
year 15 for 27 on stolen bases. And in this span, now he's 9 for
12. But he stole three backs in the
last four games. And I just seems like a guy who
came off like that second oblique concern and he got back
in the lineup and was hitting the ball again.
And now he's stealing a little bit more aggressive, but just
rounding into a very, very complete player.

(46:44):
And I got to wonder how much if he keeps this up.
Like just looking at the stat line and he's 472 plate
advances, 21 homers, 70 runs, 70ribbies.
Like that's probably pushing himself into like a top 75
player. I would imagine next season if
we could project that going forward when he FO man, I'll
take the L on him. I faded him all season long.

(47:06):
Well, not all season. I think I got him on one draft
champion. I just never trusted.
I never trusted his his splits. Like he was just so bad always
versus versus Vitis and I, I don't know.
But last year he got a little better.
But in this time frame since last year's All Star break with

(47:27):
I had to lower the plate appearances for him a little
bit. But given 300 plate appearances,
he is sorry, not sure he makes it, but fourth in batting
average, 317 average. Mr. Ren Heath will go along with
15 homers and 18 stone bases. So apologies, Mr. and Hifo, I
was wrong on you and you're doing pretty, pretty good on the

(47:53):
on the bad side of things. I thought it was surprising.
Leo de Taveras, just a guy like I I you know, I'll keep
streaming in O CS and you know keep using and spots.
But over his last 498 plate appearances, it's only bad in
227 with a 633 OPS 75 WRC plus not swinging and missing.

(48:15):
It's right around league average11% swinging strike, but only 8
homers, 11 stone bases. I just thought it would be
better when I look back and I saw his name at the bottom of
the list, like for batting average and OPS are like holy
shit, like he's what happened. Leo D like he got off.
I thought he would be doing better, you know, so I don't

(48:37):
know. Rest in peace to me rostering
him. I guess after seeing this so
much, I guess the other, the other guy I bring up, I need,
you know, I know his, his, his struggles have been pretty
popularized and talked about, but Boba Chet and his last 471
plate appearances has 9 homers and six toll bases and a 259

(48:57):
batting average. That's a 93 WRC plus 685 OPS.
And it's like what happened, man, you know, like what
happened to the Bobishette? It's a ton of ground balls as
well, not using his speed that he used to have kind of
disappeared. And on top of that too, it's

(49:18):
only 45 runs and 49 rubies. You know, that's like just as
like Wilmer Flores has more combined run plus rubies.
And that's not a you know, it's not a list like you you really
expect to find him near. So I just thought like that was
a pretty big disappointment and someone that you mentioned

(49:38):
Jordan earlier as having, you know, improved spring speed
since bat speed since he came back from injury.
But George Springer over his last 562 plate appearances, 223
average, thirteen home runs, 649OPS as his skills seem to like
kind of diminished. He's making good swing decisions

(49:58):
like his own minus O swing is 52.6%.
The league average is 3075, but bow percentage of that's like
below league average, you know, slugging at below league
average. So I don't know, is Georgie
Georgie finding his way into this, you know, fade territory?
Well, next year he might be likea a post type, you know, you

(50:19):
know, decline guy, you know, he just slips in like foreign draft
and like, oh, or is it that guy everyone gets baited into taking
like George Springer got to be better than 250th ADP, right?
And you take him and he still stinks, but just thought that
was kind of depriving across theoffense.
So good. It's I think it was a good

(50:41):
practice for me. Just looking back a little bit
and just seeing the whole volumeof thing of just every day.
Looking at last 30 and you know,last 14, you know, Jeffrey
Lugger get the last three weeks.But whatever that we like to
look back at just to see that the the full body of work,
almost like a full season is, ispretty it's pretty interesting
on the pitching side. I'll give you guys some quick

(51:04):
notes I found and then you can throw out whoever you want.
But Tyler Glass now is fifth in innings pitched and 1st in case
since last year's All Star break.
Cole Reagan's 10th in innings pitched.
For someone who's had two surgeries and they're like, no,
he won't hold up, that's pretty impressive. 4th in KS in that
span. Carter Crawford 12th in innings

(51:25):
pitched, 8th in KS, total KS Very, very interesting.
And also for reliever, throw outKyle Finnegan.
Kyle Finnegan is tied for secondand save with 36.
That's just awesome for him. So I don't know who you guys
want to throw out here, but I'lllet you guys go into that.

(51:46):
Jeff. Who's Jeff?
Oh sorry I'm I'm muted myself. My bad, it's all good.
The one that just amazed me on the walk rate is Michael Kopeck
at 7.4, walks for 9. I'm just like.
And then it's like Alex Lang is next and Chapman.

(52:06):
It's like, oh, I wonder why theydon't have closing jobs, but
somehow Kopeck does. Alexis Diaz is at six.
Like, man, these guys. I think it's one thing.
It's. Yeah.
The thing blows my mind. It's like I, I keep keep
speculating on Fernando Cruz, right?

(52:26):
And every week I'm like, let me just get Cruz just in case.
But they just keep rolling Diaz out there and he just, you know,
he's got like the 10th most saves in that span, but it's
just awful, awful. Oh, it's yes, it's I, I don't
get it. It's like the some of these walk
rates where it's like WIP is a category like people look at
ERA, but it's like you can just destroy your WIP if you're just

(52:49):
if it's like I I need strikeoutsand you know, his, you know, his
ERA is fine. So I'll run Blake's nail out
there. But a 5.5 walks per nine, like
he just killing you at that rate.
So if it counts the same as ERA,you know, it's the exact same,
same thing. So that that's one that stood

(53:10):
out for me initially. The other one was is like if
you're, if you've given up home runs during this time as a
starter over one, a home run, 1.5 home runs per nine, all of
the starters at that point had at least an ERA over four and
most of them are pushing like 5:00 to 6:00.

(53:32):
So if you're giving up home runsit, that's kind of the one thing
that's like there's there's justno saving grace to you're just
going to end up kind of getting destroyed, especially since no
one else is right now. Yeah, really there wasn't much.
You you stole all the glass now stuff.

(53:53):
That was the one I was going to go off on.
He was, he just was like #1 number one, number one, you're
like, Yep, this is where he's at.
He's way up here and he's looking great.
And I totally took down like, I'm just like, I can't have him.
He just going to end up killing.It was just so high to take the
zero with him and Congrats to everyone.

(54:18):
The other one, I think everyone knows he's great and it's gone
back. It's Jack Flaherty.
It's just been great during thistime and I think a lot of it
been this year, but I was completely off on him for years
and I was like it's going to be weird seeing him back.
I don't know where he's going toend up going.
I'm guessing top first four rounds.

(54:41):
I. Like it well, he was going in
like the 2nd and people just have kind of a short memory and
also if he depends who he signs with, that could be huge or who
he gets traded to and then re UPS with.
It's like, oh, he's turned it around and it's Cole Reagan's

(55:02):
like they just completely believe in that turn around you
you believe in all the other ones.
It's going to be, yeah. I just think it's just going to
have a short, short attention and just going to be going all
in on him. He's kind of I.
I think pitchers get overreactedtoo, and he'll be one of them.
By Friday he left 120 innings, pitch 4-5 ERA but a three 1S and

(55:24):
a 29.4 to 5.5 K to walk it. Rather impressive 13.5% swing a
strike. Yeah, what was his K minus walk?
He is, Dang it. A little bit further down than I
thought. Be like Pavetta's second.
No, no, he's 6. He's 6th, 6th and strike out
minus walk over the time frame over over Wheeler.

(55:48):
I mean, he's 8 spots over Wheeler during that time.
And I'm pretty sure a lot of people don't like Wheeler more.
But if you just want to kind of take what a pitcher has control
of, he's been great during that time frame.
So it was kind of surprising that even looking back into last
year adding those months in thathe's still is this high.

(56:10):
Absolutely, Jordan, who do you want to bring up?
I think you guys have covered most of the, the, the names I
would wanna wanted to talk about.
But yeah, I think it's really interesting to look at the OR
most interesting to look at the innings pitched over since the
last All Star break 'cause my pitching philosophy is more
like, is he healthy now? Like has he been healthy

(56:30):
recently? And if he's healthy now, that's
all I really care about. And I would rather not look much
further past the last All Star break anyway.
So seeing these guys like with that have been able to compile a
lot of innings with like reasonable effectiveness, I
think is a good sign that they're they're healthy and
they're feeling good. But yeah, Glass now's the big
112th in innings pitched in thattime.

(56:52):
But then Rodon is like 35th or so in innings pitched.
Scubal is is maybe 20th or so. But I think it's interesting,
like Pablo Lopez for a long timewas thought of as like a big
injury risk. Then he now he's thought of as
more like a workhorse. So I think it's interesting to
like which which pitchers can make that Pablo Lopez transition

(57:13):
from injury risk to to work workhorse all of a sudden.
But yeah, then and then two guysthat I wanted to highlight that
Reagan's and and Steele are both, they are projections have
both been kind of or they've been kind of outperforming their
projections for a while because they kind of had a meteoric rise

(57:33):
that was compared to their previous level of performance.
But now projections are startingto really catch up on them.
Steel actually had a bit of a buy low window where his ERA was
inflated early this year, but his like xfip and CRN stuff were
normal, were actually really good, maybe better than normal.
And now Steele's has been hot and and I think his overall

(57:54):
numbers look better. But those guys now I think
projections increasingly like myprojections or any, any
projections are, are buying intothem.
So, so they've, the projections were too low, but I think
they're, they're beginning to catch up now.
I like that with Reagan's, I mean, I think it's just

(58:15):
everyone's expectancy that he's going to always like just get,
you know, like a guy with two arm injuries, you know, he's
just a thick how long is he going to last?
You know, but and still, I thinkhe's always just been that
question mark of like, can he work with this limited pitch
mix, right? How is he?
How's he doing this? How's he making it work?
But he's been really solid over time.

(58:36):
Pablo Lopez, I think everyone, you know, has some reasonable
concerns over him, but some of the concerns I, I, I've seen of
him this year, I've been a little bit dramatic, you know,
but it's OK. I hopefully he just goes back to
being ace level status. I'll throw out Kyle Bradish in

(58:57):
his last 120 innings, 242 RA, .97 WHIP and a 29.4% K rate,
just overcoming the early injuryto that he had this season to
get back on the mound and just be pretty, pretty lights out.
It's pretty impressive. I know Jeff brought up Pavetta
before, but with pitchers, you know, over 50 innings pitch in a

(59:20):
time span, K minus walk is crochet, Scubo Peralta, glass
down Strider, Nick Pavetta. And it's just like, you know, he
continues to do it, You know, and that's just in his game
start and he had some relief innings sprinkled in there as
well that would have boosted that even a little higher.
But I'm just taking game starts here beginning Garrett Crochet.

(59:42):
Like how do how do you how do you guys treat Garrett Crochet?
Like, I mean, if you were to like, if you were doing one of
these drafts right now for like rest of the season, I mean, do
you count on him being he's beenso filthy and just watching him
pitch just seems so dominant on the mound.
Like is, is he going to last allseason?
Are they going to try to curb his innings?

(01:00:04):
Like do you think if they just let him go, does it limit his
future or that? You know, I don't know.
It's just wonderful to see rightnow.
It's that's all I know. I kind of wonder if they're
going to keep him going to see if they can trade him off and if
they if they don't get what theywant, they may just shut him
down or they'll start proving itthen.
Like they're going to let him just keep going being great.

(01:00:29):
And then it gets to the trade deadline.
Like, does someone just blow us away?
Or if not, that's like, all right, you can shut down.
We we knew we weren't doing anything like four months ago.
You can do something now. I think the only person that
tends to blow, umm, any team away is AJ Peller seems to be

(01:00:50):
like, you know, the one, the oneteam that'll pop up and the
rumors that we heard about, like, you know, Padre is
interested in got good. Yeah, yeah, yeah, no shit.
It just seems to keep throwing out three good prospects and
it's like, yo, you got three more.
It's it's it's pretty good. It's it says it says a lot about
the organization, but it also says a lot about their
willingness to push in. I know a lot of it's been

(01:01:11):
questionable and and questioned by some why'd you sign Bogart
for this much? Why'd you know, But I mean, you
got to love a guy who's just going to consistently tell his
the players on his team, like, hey, yeah, I'll, I'm going to do
whatever I can to help us, you know, win now.
You know, I think that's pretty impressive.
Jordan, what's your outlook on crochet here?
So I think the market like hasn't actually caught up on how

(01:01:33):
good he is yet. Like I've started to see people
saying like he might be a top ten pitcher, but he he is a top
ten pitcher like by steamer already.
He's like 8th, 8th best projected rest of way according
to Steamer. And like depth charts, he's
like, I'm just looking at fan graphs, like default depth
charts. He'd be more like 11th best.
So like steamer zips average. Yeah, I think he's really good.

(01:01:56):
But yeah, I think it makes sensethat that he could he could get
shut down reaching some sort of innings limits given his lighter
workloads in the past. But overall, I think this year
has been really exciting for these reliever to starting
pitcher transitions with Jordan Hicks and Renato Lopez and and
Crochet and AJAJ puck. That one didn't go well, but

(01:02:16):
three out of four, that's not bad.
And Zach Little has been really good.
So I think teams can get maybe, maybe teams will be emboldened
by this to try to get more out of their, they're like exciting
pitching talents, guys with goodstuff.
I, I think that's a very good point, Jordan, because I think

(01:02:40):
it, what it does is it, it's just like, I think it's going to
make teams realize anyone who's even close to getting 80 pitches
in 70 pitches in like what do wehave to do to get this guy?
You know, some being a A2 inningpitcher even to a four?
And then once we get him to four, how do we get him to five?

(01:03:01):
And I just like taking these guys with really life arms and
seeing how far they can stretch it instead of like taking guys
who throw 5 and say, how do we get them to seven?
Just bring in the, the short term, the short burst guys up.
I, I, I like that call. I think I think you're right.
I think a lot of teams will be inspired to maybe turn some of
those high-powered arms like more into some form of a closer

(01:03:25):
or three inning opener at first because it is amazing like puck
and I still think puck like if given maybe a couple more like
well, not a couple more, but maybe a bunch more.
Maybe you can show something better than he showed.
But still, yeah, right now he's the one that sticks out as the
failed as the failed experiment.But good call on Crochet because

(01:03:47):
yeah, themer has definitely caught up to him being really,
really legit, you know, is there?
On the same subject, I think there's something where some
teams are just like, these are our best pitchers, so we're
going to get them up kind of like the clubs Cubs are with
like Ben Brown, well, he's hurt now and Wisniewski, it's like,

(01:04:10):
well, you guys are just going tobe in the bullpen and throw two
or three innings. And I think we kind of need to
look at some of those guys that were starting in the minors and
like they're still starters, butthe, the Major League team
didn't have any holes at the time.
So like they just moved into thebullpen cause a lot of these
guys were starters at one time. And it just they're became you

(01:04:34):
kind of just as the team's need be kind of became a bullpen 1
Suarez with all the guys from Baltimore right now are kind of
that way where it's like, well, you're just going to be
relievers depending on how players are hurt and then we'll
kind of move around. So I think that's just one thing
you're going to have to look look into the offseason.
I think those are kind of some guys that you can target like in

(01:04:56):
the later round, especially in like draft champions.
Like even if you don't, if they're not a starter at the
time, at least you have it on arm and you can put them into
your roster when like every other player is hurt during the
minors for some reason. I, I won't even mention a couple
of my teams. It's so bad.
It's like I have three guys on my bench.
I put my starting line up in. I did have a a healthy starting

(01:05:20):
lineup with pitchers and hitters.
There are three guys not in the minors on my bench or on the IL
right now. I was just like, what the hell,
how's this happen? But it just does.
It happens every year and I'll probably complain about it as
long as I'm doing it, but it's just like, I just don't know how

(01:05:42):
it happens. I guess I can kind of feel it
like I've got some redraft teams.
It's like, oh great, another twoguys hurt this week and it's
like this one just cannot get out of the hole.
And it's like when Jr. got hurt,like early in the week, I was
like, Yep, of course on that team, like I'm already just
loaded up on hurt players so. The random variance in fantasy

(01:06:07):
though is is terrifying for me. Also.
Yeah, I've one of my main. I have two main events.
One of them is good, one of them's bad.
The the one that's bad has only had like 9 RB is this week and
it's very I can't even watch that team anymore.
It's just very stressful. Are you?
Are you a constant like live scoring watcher?
Standing Watcher. No, so I since I live in

(01:06:30):
Finland, I have to deactivate myphone.
I uninstall Twitter every night,uninstall discord, uninstall the
MLBF and I hide my phone so I could sleep otherwise I can't
really. I'm not going to be able to
sleep. I know it's so bad, right?
Just like he's goes like hi, I'mfinally tired to go way down in
bed. He's like, let me just see if

(01:06:51):
anything changed. Let me just see if I gained 1/2
a point just to feel better about myself.
And then he's like, no -3 and like what happened?
And then you see, like, fucking heck, the nervous fucking, you
know, gave up four in vans and you lost a tie on win.
And you're like, all right, I shouldn't have done that.
I should have just saw that in the morning and been pissed off
there. Have been a lot of studies that
show that David Peterson starts are correlated with sleeping

(01:07:13):
insomnia in in adults across thepopulation.
Listen to me, he's about. Ready to get kicked off of every
team I have. I OK, yeah, All right, let's,
let's seriously, let's have thisdiscussion for a second because
I, you know, I've been very vocal about my David Peterson.

(01:07:33):
I'm not going to say hate. Just like the if you're going to
roster him and saying it's in the in, in the Patreon for two
years, if you're going to rosterhim, just get ready for a roller
coaster ride or kick in the nutsor maybe both.
And umm, sometimes he rouse you,you know, you look at the career
came on its walk, like, oh, thisguy's a good picture, you know,

(01:07:55):
umm and then you watch him pitchand like, alright, well,
sometimes good, sometimes bad. This year I was excited because
I heard, I heard the interviews,I heard him talking to Keith
Hernandez. Like, yeah, you know, I didn't
realize how much my hip was bothering me.
I was cross firing the delivery,the velocity always affecting
me, but I didn't want to believeit was just my hip, you know,
And I'm like, great, you know, let's go DP come back, do

(01:08:18):
something, watch him the first start.
I'm like, OK, all right, this isOK.
Maybe he'll get better. Nope, Nope, Nope.
It's gotten worse, you know, 16 innings since he's been back.
Six strikeouts with an 8 to 6K Miners walking.
I'm like, Jesus Christ, David Peterson, what are you doing to
me? And it's like, I don't know,
He's gone. The more sinkers.
So he took away some swinging mist there.

(01:08:40):
The slider went from like a sweepy slider in 2022 that got
everyone reaching to now it's just like a bullet slider that's
in the zone more, but it's getting hit harder.
And I'm like, what? Who are you trying to be?
You know, I don't know, Jordan. Like, yeah, I know you're a big
Jordan, Peter Jordan Peterson, David Peterson fan.
So tell me, give me something. Do you have anything I could

(01:09:04):
feel good about here? Yeah, I got plenty.
I got plenty. So, well, I mean, we'll take the
win. We'll take the win this week.
It was ugly and and and I'm normally an expert guy, but I'm
willing to make exceptions for David Peterson.
But he looks really good. Steamer Ros, he looks really
good. My projections, he looks good
and and, and I know you had written that he has a lot of

(01:09:25):
reliever reliever innings in hissteamer Ros, but you shouldn't
just throw out the whole steamer.
You can kind of account for that, so.
How do I do that? Well, it just like in a
qualitative sense, you can see that his innings are like 60%
assumed as a starter and 40% assumed as a reliever.
And they have him at like a 340 ERA now the rest of the way.
So if they assumed a full starting workload, you might get

(01:09:47):
like upper threes ERA, which which I think is is good enough.
Like on the in a in a pitcher friendly ballpark, it's good
enough. And if you look since the All
Star break last year, he's got a380 ERA, 393 X tip.
So I agree with you. And the, the, the roller coaster
is there. And overall, I mean, he's, he's

(01:10:09):
been OK in a sense that he's like his ERA is 4/30.
I mean, the, the KMBB is gross and he could get demoted from
the rotation if he doesn't, if he doesn't stop screwing around.
But I think for me, I'll just, I'll bet on the projections and
I'll be wrong. I could be wrong on him, but he
I think he has at least he's gota probably 2 step next week and

(01:10:29):
then Scott and Sangar are going to be pressing on his heels.
So he's got to do something soon.
I'm OK with the gamble still, but but you were certainly
right. I think I tweeted about him and
you said get ready for a roller coaster ride.
It's certainly been true so far.I mean, I, it's true that I've
had to, you know, uninstall my Twitter every time he starts.
So I have to, I have to, I have to tip my cap to you there.

(01:10:52):
No, he's, yeah, he's, he's frustrating.
Jeff. What do you think about him?
Man, my projections like you said about the roller coaster,
it's like stuff Plus over the last few weeks loves him, the
bot one hates him. He's kind of been horrible.
The projections have over almosta 1.5 difference in ERA between

(01:11:16):
Steamer and Zips. Like there is no consensus where
his talent's at right now. And I think that's one thing
with starters that starters and the guys that are starters in
reliever combinations, projections can't handle them.
It's they're horrible at it. And if if someone just came out
with a good projection system ofjust those guys, I'd probably

(01:11:39):
send them 20 bucks every offseason just like this is this
is we actually put an effort in and dealt with these guys
correctly because I don't think projections deal with them right
at all. The one thing that scares me a a
little bit is just the sub 8% swinging strike rate.
Like that's by far just he's just not missing any bats.

(01:12:01):
It it points to a little bit higher strike out rate, but
something around like 5K per nine.
Like he has to start missing bats or he'll be done.
Like that's just that's where the issues underlie with him.
Like all the ERA estimators hatehim because he's just not
striking anyone out. And I think that's, yeah, I, I,

(01:12:22):
I think you nailed it there. For me.
That's right now my biggest concern, just watching him pitch
at the Met fan. He just went from like being
this very whippy, you know, likeleft-hander just firing it in
there to now just being, it's almost like they guided him to
this path of being this pitcher.But then I'm like, but I don't,
I want strikeouts. You know, I, I don't know, it's

(01:12:44):
just, I'm just, but this is, I think his path like this is what
he's chosen. He's chosen to go, you know,
almost 40% sinker and the slideris like I said, it's just more
meatball now than like, let's try to get whiffed.
You know, like in 2022, the slider had a 48% whiff.
Now it's at 23 seven and it's just really in the zone a lot

(01:13:06):
more. And I don't know how we get that
out. I don't know if if it's going to
come back, but to me that the slider is to make a break for
him. Like he needs that pitch to be
2022, like 2021, like where it was just getting chased and
whiff and not getting blasted, you know, and I just don't know
if it's coming back. You know, it doesn't seem like

(01:13:27):
you trust the force team at all right now.
And, and, and and, and lefty seem to just blast it.
I don't know. I, I, I'm, I'm very critical of
him, but as a math fan and like someone who wants him to
succeed, when I gather in vanity, I'm, I'm selfishly like,
come on, what can you do? But I don't know, Jeff, how do
you merge the two different stuffs?

(01:13:47):
Like when you look at all the different 17,000 stuffs, how do
you stuff them all together? Do you aggregate the stuff?
Does does? I mean, I have an aggregation
system and they they'll just aggregate the stuff for you and
and that's what I do. The, the one thing I've the one
thing I've found useful with stuff is it notices like the

(01:14:10):
biggest movements with it are when the pitcher drops a pitch
or increases velocity or like adds a pitch.
Like it's really more of a pitchmix change.
Usually the pitch they don't, they're not changing them during
the season. They may get a little bit, but
not a ton. So I look at like just
differences in it and look at those top guys to see if
they're, if they've changed anything.

(01:14:34):
Even unlike the bad side, it's like, oh, that maybe they're
trying to throw added a change up and you'll kind of look to
see if it's any good or not. But that's kind of where I
stand. And I've kind of defaulted to
some stuff Eno said. Where it's like stuff is best
for like 3 weeks. So I actually look at that.

(01:14:54):
One thing I've done with stuff is it they have their pitching
metric and I've just completely ignored it and I found out like
it makes if you just take stuff,it's better than adding the
pitching one for like an overallthing is I just added ball
percentage to it to kind of see how much they're throwing for
strikes. Like they're zone percent.

(01:15:16):
Like that just works better and it actually is a lot more
predictive of going forward and anything else.
It's just stuff plus ball percentage.
They're pitching one and location thing.
It wasn't that good. The bots is actually better on
on those. So I, I actually use the bot ERA
and kind of see what it puts outfor like recent stuff on how

(01:15:39):
they look at it, but it's just kind of one of multiple ones I
look at. I look at like how they've done
over the last three weeks because usually your strikeout
weight has stabilized by then. So you can kind of see if some
guys have it just gives me like a different time frame to look
at, but it's more just a stabilization point between
walks and strikeouts and kind ofjust see if there's any changes

(01:16:02):
there. So now I had kind of have this
way bizarre way of all looking at them and kind of have my
overall projections like in season ones.
But yeah, David Peterson's ones where it's just like, I don't
know what the hell is going on. Just no idea.
It's just everything's all over the place.
Yeah, definitely is not fun. Not fun.

(01:16:23):
Cool. We're going to end the public
pod right now. We're going to go do a quick
Patreon side of the pod, but Jordan, you want to say goodbye
to everyone on the public side, Tell them where to find you,
where to, where you, where to find your work, and what you're
up to. Yeah.
So you can find my projections that's got the stat line and
prospects live. And I have like peak projections

(01:16:44):
there to help you analyze like prospects in major leagues at
the same time. And then Fangraphs I'm writing
like biweekly or triweekly piece.
I may do a mid season prospect list soon, like a stats only
type thing. And then maybe looking at some
AAA, AAA stat cast metrics for hitters.

(01:17:08):
I think that that's like the theon the docket for me currently.
And then Eno's probably going toask me for an update on his
stuff. Plus he usually asks me around
this time once a month, so on like the rest of season stuff,
plus field projections. So I should get ready for that.
But Max Bay is back now in the public sphere, so maybe I'll I

(01:17:30):
may get fired. I'm not sure, but I think I
think I'll probably be OK. Oh no, no, I was back.
I was kidding, yeah, but I was, I was kidding, you know, Hasn't
said anything about that, but. But maybe I'll get to work with
him somewhat so. OK, that's cool.
Well, you can maybe I'll hire you and you can develop my stuff
model that I've been thinking about me either way, but so

(01:17:52):
everyone go check out Jordan's work.
Super good, super into it. And we're gonna head on to the
Patreon side right now.

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EP 202 | Bat Speed Tracking & Stats Since 2023 ASB w/ Guest Jordan Rosenblum

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}EP 202 | Bat Speed Tracking & Stats Since 2023 ASB w/ Guest Jordan Rosenblum