EP 204 | A Conversation w/ Guest Lance Brozdowski - Launch Angle

Episode Transcript
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(00:01):
All right, welcome to another episode of the Launch Angle
podcast. I'm Rob D I'm here with one of
our usual Co host, Mr. Jeff Zimmerman.
Jeff, what's going on today? Nothing and it's been great like
my kids both while we moved my daughter into college this
weekend and my son started school yesterday and the house
is just like quiet there's nothing going on.

(00:22):
It's amazing so. This should be your like best
month of fantasy baseball right now.
You should be really zoned in. Yes, there's literally I don't
even know when my son starts games.
That'll kind of be it. Like have to go watch that in
the evening. But otherwise it's just I I miss
these these days. It's like, oh, this is awesome.
It's not like them waking up andplaying music really loud or

(00:45):
whatever. It's like I can just do what I
need to hear for concentrate forthe next month or so.
Fantastic. We're not working with our
regular Co host Bob Silver. He's been out, he's really been
banged up at work, so we'll givehim a little bit of a pass for
that. In his place this weekend we
have Mr. Lance Bostdowski. You can find him over at Marquee

(01:06):
Sports give an excellent analysis.
He got a sub stack that is probably one of the must have
tools for fantasy for regular baseball, understanding pitching
and YouTube. I mean, Lance is all over the
place on X as well, giving some of the best content that we have
seen over the last couple years.Lance, what's going on man?

(01:26):
Thank you for coming in. Thanks for having me, guys.
Yeah, I appreciate the compliments, Jeff.
That sounds fun being being soloin the house.
Don't have kids yet or anything.So I I haven't gotten that
experience that that freedom, I guess, so to speak.
But I imagine someday that will that will hit me.
Yeah, absolutely. So Ant, I know you got a lot
going on. I just wanted to get all the

(01:47):
listeners up to speed, you know,just give us a little bit of AI
mean. I already introduced a little
bit of what you got going on. But anything you else that you
want to cover and hit and just explain I guess what you do on
your sub stack as well which is again Primo content.
Yeah, appreciate that man. I'm a, so I'm a player
development analyst from MarqueeSports Network, which is
basically Chicago Cubs regional Sports Network, which means I'm

(02:08):
on air. I'm kind of like a hybrid
talent. So I do some modern league
stuff. I also do some Major League
analysis on like a two times a week basis, three times a week
basis basically. And then from there I do my
Substack, which has been my focus this year alongside my
YouTube channel. So Substack is essentially me
sitting down every night for a couple hours and ripping through

(02:28):
box scores and generally following up on notes that I
have on pitchers as to like whatthey changed or mostly also like
guys I haven't looked at. And just seeing like why they're
pitching better, why they're pitching worse and trying to see
if there's anything actionable when that you could discern from
why perhaps they've gone on a stretch or not.
And whether I think the league might adjust back.
You know, sometimes I try to relate that back to what the
prediction trajection is the rest of season and just trying

(02:50):
to some some kind of opinion on the pitcher.
And it's definitely developed over the last couple of years.
Last year I was definitely more focused on like stuff changes,
stuff plus changes. This year I think I've been a
little more focused on location and how that relates to a lot of
things. So there's a bounce.
I mean, it's like, it's a natural ebb and flow of like how
I look at pictures and it, it definitely goes in depth.

(03:10):
I use it in terms of, you know, tracking back to what I'm doing
with my fantasy teams and stuff.It isn't specifically tailored
to fantasy, but I'd argue that, you know, I think there's a lot
of value to take from it into fantasy based on what I'm
saying, but I've always tried tokeep it a little more siloed out
of the fantasy space, even though I'm I do play fantasy.
So this is my little touch. I think for the most part, I

(03:31):
think there's a lot of fancy fantasy content out there.
And I found that a lot of peoplelike it when it's not maybe
totally tailored to fantasy, butI don't know, maybe that's maybe
that's not good because I got a lot of people who are like, I
wish this was more actual fantasy advice.
And I'm like, listen, you got Rob and you got Jeff and you got
like 40 other people who are dominating that space.
I'm going to take the little corner that's like non fantasy
baseball nerd stuff. So we'll see how it goes.

(03:52):
I don't know. No, I think, I think it, I think
it definitely does. I mean, first of all, it helps
me understand pitching way better than I think anyone else
can describe it. Like honestly, And I'm just
saying that because you're on the show, I've told you that
through DM, that the way you describe stuff with the new
analytics and metrics, I totallyreceive it better than anybody

(04:13):
anybody else can put it across. And I think when you're trying
to relay it to fantasy and like you said, actionable stuff like
that, Jeff's main thing, Jeff's always about like what what's
actionable? Because it could just be
nonsense that everyone's spinning out and you're like,
OK, well, what do I take from that?
You know, And I think what you're showing with the
differences in the approach versus a lefty versus a righty

(04:34):
where they're putting a ball like, and I think that has
helped me at least, you know, and especially in the NFPC space
where you have to make a move instantly, like on a pitcher,
right? You know, you can't wait a week
or two because everyone's real competitive.
There's information out there and you got to get in quick.
So if you, you know, again, get a hedge on that, all the change

(04:54):
up changed, you know, drop them dropping a little more, it's a
little bit more effective. Is that actionable?
Well, at the moment it is. So you try to get in on that as
soon as you can. So I think all that stuff that
you're doing is really awesome. And I, you know, I always wonder
like, what's the process? Like?
Do you have like a filter of stats?
You see some differences in movement or you're just going
through box school bouncing up? Because I'm trying to be more

(05:17):
efficient in how I look through that.
And you know, like, so I'm always wondering, how does Lance
do it? Like, how do you?
No, I'm serious because like I, it takes me so long to get to
even one picture if I'm looking at things and I got up, you
know, the TJ stats and I have upthe pitch leaderboard.
I have up all these tabs and I'mlike.
Is there a way to do this? Yeah, I don't think there is.

(05:38):
Of course I'm a multi tab personas well.
I have True Media which is like a software that teams use.
They don't have a consumer product right now.
So you basically have to get it through like an agency or
something. I kind of snuck my way in there
for the last like two years. I've been asking them to give me
like a comp subscription and just let me use it as like my
main primary source on pretty much everything that gets you

(05:59):
like 85% of the way. I just think they're a little
bit easier in terms of you couldcreate, you know, custom
dashboard like Fangraphs does, but it integrates it back with
pitch plots and heat maps that are very easily sorted based on
handedness and a head behind andcount damage frequency miss,
etcetera. That like to your point on
efficiency, that is the way I'm efficient with this that I can

(06:20):
keep, you know, a substack post in the one to two hour window of
writing the in error. Basically not having an idea
what happened on the given slateto or watching games and then
jumping to the end of the day and being like, all right, let
me write this stuff in two hours.
And that gets me the majority ofthe way there.
But I, I use fan graphs for thisstuff, plus I have access to
driveline baseball stuff plus aswell.
So I kind of toggle between those.

(06:41):
That was a big focus. The last year Substack was like
looking at differences, but thisyear I, I just kind of been
focused on like approach. I think that's, I think that's
something that like maybe isn't totally considered a lot.
And I think it's really important, especially on a game
to game basis. I've become a little more
fascinated with like the game togame stuff, the batter versus
pitcher interaction in the givenAB given day, seeing the guy

(07:02):
three times. What happens over the course of
those three ABS? How does the guy turn over line
UPS in terms of usage? You know, he's starting games
earlier with this and then you know he moves as the skeins does
towards his fastball later in counts, etcetera.
That stuff is just fascinating to me, especially when it
changes or you notice like a George Kirby starts throwing a
splitter behind it and counts toright.
He's a ton. And it's like, yeah, I mean, I,

(07:24):
I think even if maybe the large data says that that stuff's
completely useless. Like I like finding some
correlation there and being like, yeah, I mean, if I mean,
Kirby got smoked his last time out, but before that, like he's
been really, really good. And it's like, OK, like I like
this. Like I, I, it also opens up the
breath to look at like larger trends in the sport too.
You know, let's like the Red Soxthrowing 0 fastballs and all a

(07:45):
ton of sinkers when they are throwing fastballs.
You know, that's and an obvious one that a lot of people notice
pretty early off the top, but also just trends in terms of
like behind account usage. You know, when guys are using
fastballs. My favorite thing is when you
see like good fastballs, when you go and see a stuff plus
fastball, it's like a 120 on Tang rafts and you're like, oh,
that's awesome. And then you look at it and it's
like, oh, actually he's decreased uses on that pitch
throughout the course of the last three months.

(08:06):
And it's like, oh, that's, that's modern baseball, right?
Like you make your pitch better and then you throw it less
because everything else is stillbetter than that fastball that's
very good. So it's like this hilarious flow
that I just love looking at. I think it's so funny.
That's awesome. How how fast are teams reacting
to that? And is that why pitchers may
change it back or is it just like a feel things or pitches as

(08:27):
well? Like if they noticed a guys like
Kirby is going with a certain pitch before or after the count,
like how fast are teams picking that up?
Do you know? Yeah, it's, it's a good
question. I think I think a lot of the
time that I found is like when Isee a usage change and like
potentially a result different off it off it, like you guys
just been better over the last three starts.
I'd say in the next like two to three starts you often see like

(08:49):
a correction back. So I think this stuff happens
pretty quick, but that's purely anecdotal on my end of just like
observing and trying to see. And the other thing you run into
too is like match up situationalstuff where it's like, Oh, one
thing I try to do a lot is look at like if this guy threw his
slider more over the last three starts, like, or let's say,
let's go with like pitch, like acurveball or something like
that, you know, was say it's a righty, he's facing more lefties

(09:13):
were those teams and those lefties in that lineup were So
I'll just pull up like a savant,you know, lefty on a given team,
look at league performance against it and be like, oh,
those three teams were all bottom 10 in curveball
performance. And it's like, I don't
necessarily know if teams are doing advance prep like that,
but I definitely have talked to individuals who do advance prep
like that. It's just it's a lot of the

(09:33):
stuff as you realize, like you, you look on the broad and be
like, OK, you know, say the Brewers are terrible versus
curve balls. I don't know if they are, I'm
just using them as an example. And then you look in and it's
like, oh, it's not just the Brewers are terrible, it's that,
you know, they don't have a ton of lefties and like Yelich and
so and so, you know, go with like a a Mitchell, Garrett
Mitchell or something like that.Those are the guys that are bad
versus curve balls and they see a lot of curve balls.

(09:53):
So it's like, it's not the Brewers.
It's like these two hitters. And then you look at the batter
versus pitcher matchup in those individual instances and be
like, yes, OK, and you might notice this when this when you
watch a game as well, right? Like there's certain guys that a
pitcher might throw. You know, like the last night I
was, I mean, I worked for the Cubs, I was watching Tyon versus
versus the Guardians and like they have a lot of pretty good
lefties in the lineup. And he got smoked.

(10:14):
And in those situations, I was fascinated to see him like throw
cutter inside the Quan. And I was like, oh, that's
interesting because Tyon's movedoff his inside cutter over the
last probably year and a half. So like when he goes to that's
pitch in a certain spot versus lefty, like there's something
there in the advance report thatis Quan struggles inside cutters
or slowed him down inside. Or perhaps just the fact that,

(10:35):
you know, as a guy with lower bat speed, you know, I'm more
willing to throw pitches that could get beat in danger spots
because I just don't think he's be able to barrel the ball and
of course, Quan barrel the ball.So you're wrong in that
instance, you know what I mean? But but that stuff I think is
important. Like you notice this, I imagine
you guys do as you watch games. It's like these pitches are
being used versus these hitters and it's like there's reasoning

(10:58):
behind that. He's not just like randomly
using pitches in certain spots because he needs to get his
curveball in. You know, if every hit in the
lineup sucked against, yeah, every lefty sucked against
forcing change up, he'd throw forcing change up to every
hitter in the lineup. So just my just how my brain
operates I guess. No, it's so layered.
No, I love that. I love how you break it down
because that's what I do love about looking back at games.

(11:18):
You said versus he's doing good plus lefty or he's throwing
more, more of this pitch. And then like you said, you go
back and you realize it may havebeen a team loaded with lefties
or, you know, like, how good is these two guys like Mitchell
versus or a curveball? There's so much stuff.
And then you have to try to, youknow, forecast forward, which is
always the yeah, that's. The hardest part?

(11:39):
Yeah, that's the that's the hardest part you.
I really enjoyed your recent video with the like the Oh, and
how a teammate change a pitch usage with a team change, you
know, a player change. And I thought, like, I know you
just brought that up is so and Iknow you like explaining in the
video how you may not see like ahuge like overhaul, but

(12:00):
something that a team can identify and like what?
What do you think for any of thelike pictures that just changed
team like who? Who might be seeing the like a
better version of going forward?Yeah, yeah, I I think Coochie
and Blackburn are the two that jump out to me.
And yeah, in that video I basically broke it down into
like pure optimization. You know, like this pitch is

(12:23):
bad, bring the usage down. This pitch stuff plus is good,
bring the usage up. And that is a Blackburn and
Kikuchi adjustment. I would say like Kikuchi was
like the curveball's getting hit, stop throwing it as much.
If you're going to throw it, throw it.
OO that's called strike where hitters are generally more
passive. And then, you know, he brought
the slider usage, brought down the forcing usage.

(12:44):
And we saw the Blue Jays starting to do that at the,
let's say, the June and July mark.
If you look at like the rolling graph on fan graphs, you know
that the curveball was coming down, but they didn't really
seem to have too much interest in pulling the fastball below
like 50%. And I guess I understand it.
Like the pitch grades out reallywell.
It performed pretty good and perform honestly a little bit.
You could argue it perform down relative to its stuff plus,

(13:05):
which I think you think of sometimes, right?
It's like the fastball is not getting destroyed, but that's
like a 120. It's like that should be pretty
good. And it's like, okay, the actuals
are like you're just gonna throwthat below 40% of the time and
we don't think you're gonna we're not gonna degrade on the
walk side of thing. So bring up the change up in the
slider, you know, and he's been better.
That to me is more like AI don'tsee anything there.

(13:27):
Team philosoph philosophy wise. The Astros, you know, are just
preferring to use the better pitches.
You see this with Blackburn too.He's not throwing his forcing
the right he's much anymore and he took away his curveball to
left. He's throwing more cutter
inside. That also I think is another one
where it's just like I don't think that's a Mets philosophy
thing. I think it's just the forcing to
rise isn't that great, so don't throw it.

(13:47):
And we like the cutter, which grades out pretty well, I
believe is one of his better fastballs from stuff Plus.
So throw that more to lefties. Then you get into like the team
philosophy stuff, which is more let's go with Aaron Savale, who
got who we have a bigger sample of, but the Brewers really like
synchronous opposite handedness and sweepers opposite handedness
and Savale up the usage. I believe on both of those
offerings, 2 lefties. The problem is he hasn't been

(14:10):
better. So that's when you run into the
instance of like, OK, this is happening, but it's not actually
improving the pitcher at all to some extent.
And that is honestly the more fascinating adjustment to me
where you see what James Paxton and the Red Sox, right?
He goes there and it's like, we just hate forcing fastballs to
throw your sinker. And it's like, well, James
Paxton's like an over the top carry fastball guy who in his

(14:31):
best seasons was throwing like 60% forcing.
And I know he's not that pitcherthat he was in like 1617
eighteen, but I mean, I don't see why perhaps the sinker is
also going to unlock him as the Red Sox.
That to me is like a pure philosoph philosophy 1 where
it's just like the Red Sox don'tlike this pitch and it doesn't
really matter whether they thinkit's better.

(14:52):
So they're just going to throw it less or more.
And it's almost like result agnostic.
It's just like, maybe this will fix him.
You know, saw Lucas Lucas Sims on that team as well, throwing a
lot more cutter, basically completely abandoning the
forcing fast what the Reds were throwing a pretty good amount of
time. And that's another one where
it's like, I I think the four seems good for Sims, and I guess
the Red Sox don't. So it doesn't really matter.
They're going to throw the cutter more and I think he's

(15:13):
been fine. But relievers, we're going to
need a larger sample there to understand whether they're
better. But those are like the buckets I
look at. So I'd say Blackburns one I just
wrote about trying to think of who else changed.
Trevor Rogers. I don't think I saw a ton there,
but I feel like that's another one where it's got to be more
velocity based. I think he started throwing,
diversifying the fastballs a little more in terms of throwing
both to each hand as opposed to focusing on one, which I think

(15:36):
sometimes happens when guys havelow stuff plus on both.
It's just like, we don't think either of these pitches are that
great. So like, let's throw them both
like 25 to 35% of the time as opposed to like 145, you know?
So yeah, I'm always kind of I, Ireally like this time of year
because these changes are alwaysfun to me.
I think that when you change teams or pitch very bad, you
have more opportunity for usage changes to occur very quickly.

(15:59):
This is kind of a low hanging fruit when you go to a new
organization. They're not going to overall
Trevor Rogers mechanics in season right here.
In my opinion, we'll be in the offseason.
My prediction is probably, I think they have something in
that in terms of they're lookingat him and going, yeah, the
velocity we can get back up to 9394.
We just can't do it right now. We need him in the rotation.
He's got to pitch 5 innings every 56th day.
So like that'll that's a projectfor down the road.
But right now we can change someusage.

(16:19):
This is very easy, right? We just don't think this pitch
is good. Throw it more or less.
And you know, I, I think that stuff's really fun to look at.
And Twitter had a meltdown over that trade.
Like I can't believe the Oriolesgot this shitty lefty.
It's like he's a cross controlled lefty for two guys
like 127 year old dude who's notgoing to play on their team and
then a possibly overrated Norby.But like, you know, it's funny.

(16:43):
I was I was amused by the comments that they across the
board. Yeah, I, I, I saw that too.
It's the same with the Kikuchi trade where it was like, I
don't, I mean, I initially I agreed.
It's like Bloss and little Profito are allowed to give up.
And then everyone was so on one side of that that I was like,
what are we missing here? You know what?
I mean, and it's like. Oh Bloss is like kind of bad

(17:04):
body, has injury track record. Maybe they don't actually see
him as like a four to third starter long term.
So I kind of understand why theywould maybe value him, but it's
still weird that you give up that much control for Kikuchi.
But they clearly had a plan withKikuchi.
They're clearly going for it. I think they realized that
window was starting to shrink. So.
It's like, I don't know, it's not a terrible like, we'll,

(17:25):
we'll probably look back on that.
And everyone who tweeted like, wow, they gave up way too much.
You know, it's like, I don't think they really give up way
too much cookie. Suppose a gem in the World
Series. It'll go like exactly quickly
out there. Flags fly forever, right?
It doesn't. Mag fly forever.
All right, so we're going to getinto a big portion of some
stuff. Plus before I ask you that, I,
you know, I, you know, when I watch it on TV a lot, I see from

(17:48):
your interaction with Cliff Floyd, you know, and it makes
me, yeah, he's awesome. But it makes me laugh too,
because sometimes he looks at you like he like he thinks
you're nuts. You know, when you talk about
some of this really in depth stuff.
And I know you must get a littleresistance by some of the
especially former players, but how do you, you know, how do you

(18:08):
balance that? And, you know, try to like hold
your ground, but also try to getthem to understand why this may
be important Because I think it's really fascinating.
Watch that tug and pull versus like, you know, the old school
stuff versus the new school stuff.
And I think a lot of people havea, you know, side they choose on
that. But I like the merging of it
because I think it's important for us.

(18:29):
The reality is you have to listen to everyone, even if
you're pretty confident you're correct.
That is what I've learned. And I didn't initially have, I
think, in my repertoire of tolerance, I guess you could
say. So I yeah, it's it's there.
You write that one down there, Rob.
Repertoire of tolerance. Yeah.
That's, that's, that's. I don't know where I came up
with that. I have a post it.

(18:52):
I have a sticky on my computer, Lance with like all the like
great phrases. I've heard entire own podcast.
So that one, that one's getting up there.
Your name's getting up there. Yep.
The reality is, yeah, that's it's tough, man.
Like I think, I think they're, Ithink the hardest thing to do
and I honestly wish that the problem with social media, a lot

(19:13):
of this these sites is you can'treally interact in a productive
way, which is just inevitable. It's just how these sites
operate. But in person, when you're in
person with like people and you have an opinion that everyone
disagrees with, it's really hardto say that that opinion is to
hold that opinion and not like give ground.
And I run into this more than you think.
Like. Yeah.

(19:34):
For example, I'll, I'll give 2 examples.
Like we, we all watch games in the studio.
So we have, you know, our hosts,you know, some of our executive
producers, our talent, myself, whoever else is on our
production team. Generally sitting around a
television, we'll say like six to eight of us, you know, and
obviously some of us are more vocal than others just from
having opinions and stuff. And there's definitely people
who like have way more old school thoughts.

(19:54):
So like the thing that we run into all the time that I always
go back and forth with I I'll mention to my host Cole Wright,
he's a really good guy. I think he's incredible at his
job, but he's he will tell you he's a little bit more old
school in terms of how he thinks.
The thing we need to run into and disagree with all the time
is guys who throw hard, not throwing their fastball more.
And it's this constant back and forth.
And like, I think the majority of people agree with Cole and

(20:16):
like, it's crazy because like. I agree with the organization's
not like Ryan Helsley's a good one, right?
Like he gave up a walk off against the Cubs and Cole's
like, why is he throwing a slider there?
It's stupid. Like he threw like 6IN that AB
and I was like, it was versus Dansby Swanson, who's a
notoriously fastball hitter. And it's like, I I just laid it
out. I was like, yeah, all Swanson
does is hit fastballs. Helsley's is fine, but he gives

(20:37):
him way more damage than his slider.
Like that's like the first extrabase that I could find off his
slider in a month, you know, Andit's like it wasn't a barrel.
It was like a sawed off pitch down the line and Cole's like
you just got to throw a fastballthere and it's like, no, you
know what I mean? And like I just I'm not throwing
fastball here from Ryan Helsley.And it's like I'm I don't think
I'm ever going to convince Cole on this and he's never going to
convince me. But being in a room where

(20:59):
multiple people disagree on thattopic and all of them are on
Cole side, it's really hard to look them all in the eye and be
and they're all older than you. They all like Cole played at
like a pretty high level. I did not play at that high of a
level. And it's like you, you almost
like think you're crazy, you know, and like, it's just, it's,
it's fascinating to me where youlike you run into these
situations and it it really allows you to like check how

(21:19):
confident you are in a given stance you have when you have
five people disagreeing with you.
That is the thing that I've realized is the hardest to do.
And I think that more people need to, like, get into those
situations, you know, just because it allows like, even in
instances where I disagree, likeat least I now see the other
side. Like, it's really important to
be able to like, if you have an argument and you are vehemently
on one side of it, like a challenge, a mental exercise is

(21:42):
to formulate the opposite opposing argument and just make
sure you understand it, you know?
And like, I'm pretty sure in a lot of these instances, that is
the least I do. It's just like, what?
What is Cole thinking there? Cole's thinking is like 98 is
good. It was like, that's it.
That's as simple as that. And I would agree, Like if you
look at fastball performance based on velocity, those pitches
get better as they're thrown harder, you know, so I

(22:05):
understand where he's coming from in that.
But does that trump the fact that Helsley's specific case and
versus Dansby in that specific instance where he's a fastball
hitter? You know, that is where I'll
push back and be like, listen, like This is why they're doing
that. And he's like, doesn't matter.
Like the 98 is good. And it's like, I don't know,
man. Like is it, you know, like this
is like the the Ying and Yang? I think of it to some extent,

(22:25):
but that is that is the main interaction I think I have with
people in terms of like disagreeing with me.
You know, it's just a matter of like you got to be, you got to
understand their side of the argument and make sure that
you're comfortable justifying your side.
It's it's honestly been very productive, I think.
Yeah, yeah, it's really productive from a from a mental

(22:46):
health and like just general standpoint of like understanding
the sport. I think it's really it.
I think I've learned a lot, a lot too over the last couple
years through the pole headed discord.
Just like seeing what everyone else has to think about players
and process and strategy, you know, and I think it's good to
not close off any specific thingand go down that route.
Like you said, try, you know, like look at it and see if you

(23:09):
can understand why and and just see if you want to adapt any
part of it or not. And if you don't, but at least
you do understand it. And I think that's definitely
huge. All right, so stuff plus and
Jeff here has a couple of questions for you.
The Stuff plus. The first one I'm going to ask
you, though, is just like, how do you apply it for fantasy?
I think that's the main thing we're still trying to figure out

(23:30):
is how to use Stuff Plus for fantasy and like what percentage
of it for you, how to play, you know, when you play fantasy,
like in your, your play evaluation for pitchers.
Yeah, I'd say it plays a reasonable now.
Yeah, you have some percentages down here, 50% projection 20.
Percent, yeah, I would just say I didn't know where you split

(23:51):
is, yeah. That feels pretty good to me.
I, I think I might, I mean, it may be some double counting
there in terms of like K modest walk building into, into
projection a lot and stuff. But yeah, I, it's funny.
Like K modest walk is one of those things that's like so
powerful and we've been trying to like reinvent the wheel with
it for so long where it's just like that's such a good stat to
encapsulate quit your performance that it's like I I

(24:11):
run into that too. Like people would ask me
sometimes like what is the one stat I need?
And I was like, it's just trigamindus walk.
Like, you know, I'm sorry, like we're trying to come up with all
these other things and they're really cool and they're fun and
I love them. But at the end of the day, like
if you're siloed to one stat, you could probably do a pretty
good job projecting pitchers or just came on this walk.
I just think like in the space of fantasy and I'm realizing

(24:32):
this team doing some football prep.
I'm not sure if you guys play fantasy football or anything,
but so like player takes are where you differentiate, I think
where everyone is using similar projections.
Probably they're using some kindof dollar model.
I like Razz Ball. You look at fan graphs, you
know, look at some kind of overall dollar value projection.
You know, you're looking at category, category contribution.

(24:54):
I, I like Razz ball's war room when I'm drafting, I can like
plug in and see how I'm allocating dollars to
categories. Like there's different ways to
do this, but everyone I think atplaying at a reasonably high
level and not in a home league is probably doing some version
of that. So therefore you have hive mind,
I think on a lot. So what differentiates his
player takes, right? It's like the ability to look at

(25:16):
a guy who has a terrible projection and no past history
of results and go disguise the value because of XY or Z.
And that is where I think something like a stuff plus or
something like a maybe it's justanecdotal.
Maybe it's, you know, this maybeyou know, based on this one beat
guy on the team that he was injured or that comes out or
like Severino tipping last year,right.
He pitched so bad last year. He was one of my like, kind of

(25:39):
like easy smashes. And I thought the value was like
reasonable on him. You know, he's been up and down.
I drafted him a lot of 15 teamers.
So like, I I don't know if I played the roulette of starting
him properly throughout the season.
I'd have to look back and see what he's his overall
contribution is to my ERA and stuff.
But I think I got him relativelylate, got him early in draft
season, late in some 15 teamers where it works.
You know, in that instance, it'slike, OK, I'm using the tipping

(25:59):
as my kind of crutch argument tolike lean on when everything
else probably just looked great,right?
Like he hasn't been good in a couple years.
I knew he went to driveline. I knew he was working on certain
pitches and I knew that he was tipping in the prior year.
Like that is what I would categorize as like almost in the
stuff area, you know, and it's the same thing I think with
identifying pitchers who might be values later.

(26:19):
Like Hunter Brown was a good one.
I, I was pretty in on him to start the year.
He was so bad just starting the season.
I don't know if it was you, Jeff, but someone tweeted out
early in that year that he wouldneed like a three 2 ERA to have
a sub 4 ERA rest of season. You know, after putting up like
that terrible month. And I was like, that's not going
to happen. And he's under 4, right?
Now, yeah, and. It was like one of those things,

(26:41):
right? I just, I just thought it was so
funny because like he was one ofmy like I liked him a lot.
I just thought the stuff plus was good, you know, and he made
some changes too, right? He took away the hard cutter and
did all this stuff. And I generally they just like
those changes. When guys make changes and we
can see that in spring. Like that just makes me think
that there's probably more variance on the projection than
what is being captured. So if he's being drafted, you

(27:02):
know, in a way that encapsulatesthe 50th percentile projection,
I'm pretty confident that that that peak's flattening out and
he's flattening out probably in both directions, which we saw
saw with a bunch of brown where all those changes were terrible.
And then he made a bunch more and now he's good.
But that variance I think is good.
I just I want to stack that variance.
I think especially a lot of pitching Staffs on fantasy
teams. So I'm not sure if that answers

(27:22):
your question. I use it.
I don't say I like lean on it. I use it to almost kind of
inform what I'm doing. And the other thing too is like
the more I've used stuff plus, the more now I don't use it.
And what I do is I just look at shapes and I try to guess what I
think it's going to be in my head.
And then most of the time I'm inthe area, you know, like
velocity drives a lot of it. So like you look at it like as
Debbie Matthews, it just came upand you're like, OK, yeah, he's

(27:44):
got like four to five above average pitches because
everything's thrown really hard,you know, and he, and he's a
good extension and the release time, like all that stuff works
out. So, yeah, I think that I use it
in maybe different ways than most people, but I, yeah, I
think it's important to incorporate and understand.
But that's because I enjoy it. I don't necessarily think it's I
would argue it's maybe not essential to being a good

(28:06):
fantasy player. I wonder, you know, you wouldn't
be able to have like a controlled study here, but I
wonder how many people who use it don't use it in a way that's
productive, you know, but again,like I do think it does ID what
you want a lot of situations where it's like the good stuff
plus bad pitcher is probably onethat is young most of the time.

(28:27):
I'd be interested in looking at like, which guys have really
high stuff plus that have been terrible at starting pitches
over the last like three to fouryears.
Because a lot of the time what Isee is like great stuff plus and
then terrible performance. Taj Bradley comes to mind and
that is one where I think you can almost kind of blindly bet
and just be like, OK, like he's not a good pitching development
team. They're probably spotting
something here that is off. And of course they play with the

(28:50):
slider orientation or the cutterorientation.
And next thing you know, like hefigured that pitch out to
righties splitters been always been good.
The fastballs carry pitches in Tropicana, which boosts vertical
break and some other numbers. So that pitch looks better in
those situations. And now he's a very good pitcher
and it's like, OK, yeah, that that's even probably like a pure
stuff plus bed, right? Like good pitching prospect
pedigree had a 5 plus ERA. Pretty sure he's not going to
have a 5 plus ERA. He's probably going to change

(29:11):
something now he's better and he's very good.
So that's probably the instance where I use stuff plus.
Sometimes it's like the late guys in drafts like 200 plus.
She's like, just give me the guywho has good stuff plus and he's
young like and he's in a maybe arelative top half pitching to
that development organization. There probably is something
there from like a value capture standpoint.
I like it. I like that approach.
Get Jeff. Yeah, I think you kind of

(29:33):
answered some of these in various ways and others.
But when I know you, you don't seem to, what you said, rely on
stuff so much. But when do you think like if a
guy's stuff has changed, it saysit's great, but the results are
still horrible. When do you when do when do you
think like the results just start taking over?
I've been thinking about this because I I the way I think of

(29:55):
the results, I think in a lot ofinstances is like they become
more valuable the more of them you have.
But I, I don't exactly know if there's been any research on
like when that equilibrium pointis where like you start to
believe them more. I imagine it's probably a pretty
large sample, right? Like a Javier Assad for the last
two years we've been wondering why he's pitching outperforming
stuff. Plus my rationale has always
been that he's like the classic usage guy where it's like, I

(30:18):
will throw you throw righties, sink sweep and the sweeper's
sweeper, sodder's good. And then to lefties, I'm going
to mix like five to six pitches more than 10% and just like mix
you to death. And it's like that was my
rationale as to why he was over performing his stuff.
Plus, but like now he's not beengood of late.
So, you know, I don't even know if he's going to.
I mean, there's a chance he's not even in the Cubs rotation

(30:38):
next year based on some of the young guys they have, you know,
so it's like I don't he's a guy that is, I think fitting into
your instance here where it's like I thought maybe the the
point of it was like a like 200 innings pitch at the Major
League level. Maybe RA becomes slightly more
important. We could look at some results,
but I don't know if I have a tonof instances where that actually
holds past the 200 in points. It makes me wonder like whether

(31:00):
it matters. But I, I, I know, you know,
Saris has this thing all the time where he says like like
intra season, like within that given season that he will rely
more on something like an ERA for I believe this.
I'm, I'm, I'm paraphrasing him properly here where it's like
this guy's pitching really well despite poor stuff and he has
say, 100 inning sample and the peripherals maybe aren't

(31:22):
terrible, but the stuff plus isn't good.
You know, in that instance, I believe, you know, most of the
time would just be OK in saying like he's probably pitching to
the RA, but then next season he would say he pitches to like the
stuff plus. That's always something I've
tried to wrap my head around in terms of like, why, you know,
whether it's like the guy's juston a heater in the leaves and
adjusting or is there something about his look as a pitcher?
I feel like this might happen more with lefties, perhaps for

(31:44):
stuff plus. I still think undershoots them a
lot of the time because of how much their stuff's based on
angles and just the fact that hitters don't have the mental
map they've seen from given slots for lefties.
But yeah, I I'd be curious if you guys have thoughts on like
what that point is at which you're more comfortable pushing
to an ERA or you're more comfortable going Now the ERA is
52% important and the stuff plusis 49 were prior it was the

(32:05):
inverse. Like I don't know what that
point is. I've been trying to like figure
out where it is in space. Well I can't even with the ERAI
would even say like just using strikeout minus walk like is.
Back to our main point, right? Yeah, yeah, right.
Like it's after like three games, should I be looking at
strikeout minus walk 4-5 or should we still be hoping stuff

(32:27):
kind of overrides it? I don't know.
And maybe just with stuff you'relooking more at strikeout rate
and, and just hoping like when should we be looking at
strikeout rate or swinging strike rate versus the, the ERA?
Like I I it probably takes a while with the ERA, but.
Yeah, yeah. And that kind of goes on to like
my next question is like, truthfully, I think this is

(32:50):
going to be in the process this year.
One of the things I want to diveinto just kind of like, when do
we need to believe one or the other?
Because everyone keeps dropping these numbers and it's just kind
of like, you know, I, the one thing I use it for is I run like
the last three weeks of stuff and compare it to before and all

(33:11):
I do is I find changes. It might be something like you
do too, to kind of find the guys.
It's like, OK, this guy's stuff's dropped.
There's up 10. Why almost?
I would say 90% of the time it'sbecause of a pitch mix change.
They've added one or they dropped one.
However it went up. There's really, sometimes it's
velocity, but usually there's not that much change in that.

(33:32):
It's some form of pitch mix change is why it's changed and
that it just kind of spots changes more than it actually
spots like improvement. Yep.
No, you spot on. That's the Bryce Elder that
we've seen. I know Eno mentioned him as like
a big riser and it's like, oh, you're just throwing a slider
more and the slider grids out well.
So that's why I think a lot of time I don't, and this is maybe
an interesting thing that I haven't mentioned, but I don't

(33:53):
think I look at like aggregated stuff plus the time I tend to
look at like individual pitch level stuff plus and think of
it, I guess more of a summation of that and look at that
independent. Like I almost want to take the
stuff plus that's encapsulating the usage and and individual
shapes. And I want to break it into like
those two components. I want to look at the stuff and
I want to look at the usage separately and see it from that

(34:13):
angle. But maybe that's more me in
season. I think in draft season, I would
look at probably like a total stuff plus.
But I do think that my cloud like if he's throwing, if a
guy's throwing like 50% fastball, I don't know.
And it's a good stuff plus pitch.
Like I I could probably see someroom for that pitch to come down
and for him to use an equally aseffective stuff plus slider and

(34:34):
like he's probably going to be abetter pitcher, but stuff plus
isn't going to capture as to whyhe's better.
So I mean it all comes and it comes back to what I'm saying.
Like aggregate information I think is super important and it
allows you to set like a base foundation for things.
And then like the player takes are the things that matter.
I think in draft season and other situations, it's like, are
you confident enough in this individual player and what
you're seeing on an individual level of like this guy's a

(34:56):
slider that you know, generated like gyro sliders are a good
example. Like those are basically pitches
that aren't sweeping a lot. They're kind of just diving and
dropping thinking like a Pete Fairbanks or something along
those lines. Or George Classen is this
rookie, not rookie prospect pitcher that was traded from the
Phillies to the Angels who has like this crazy bullet slider.
I'm pretty confident that pitch is going to grade out well on
stuff models or if it is, it's going to grade out fine, but

(35:17):
that pitch is really good. Like that shape works like I'm
I'm very confident that stuff plus I think misses some of
this. I know Calbodia Driveline always
says like the test of a stuff model is whether it can capture
good bullet sliders. Most of the time they need to be
like 8788 Plus these pitches work like they're platoon
neutral. They're very good pitches.
They generally, if you want to go into like the tunnelling

(35:38):
argument, they're going to hold the fastball line longer.
They're they're good. And I just don't think a lot of
times stuff captures that. And I think that that's like a
that that's a deficiency perhapsof stuff plus I could be wrong
on this, but I think most of thetime when I look and see like,
yeah, the sliders, fine. It's like, Oh yeah, it's just,
it's a hard bullet. So like it has a 45% swing miss
and no one cares because the stuff pluses are not I isn't

(36:00):
good. It's like those instances are
ones where it's like player take, OK, this pitch is good.
I think stuff's not capturing itmost of the time.
You know, like like ATJ stats model, which I use in a lot of
my minor league stuff, like there's a bias towards like big
movement, big horizontal, big arm side, etcetera.
And like a lot of the time, likelook at the top 20 qualified
starting pitchers based on F4 right now.
How many guys, how many of thoseguys throw sweepers?

(36:22):
Yeah, off the top of your head, how many you think throw
sweepers? Wait.
Yeah, it's, I would say it's right.
It's low and yet stuff models 100% of the time are going to
prefer the pitch that's 83 with 14 Sweet, you know, right.
So like that's another disconnect I have sometimes in
terms of like on the prospects side, trying to identify a
pitcher who's going to be very good.

(36:43):
It's like this stuff is going tosay that the big ass sweeper guy
is the one that works like a Will Warren.
I like Will Warren for other reasons, because he has multiple
fastballs etcetera. I think he's got reasonable
command. I like the diversity of it.
He's kind of that Michael King type that the Yankees seem to
prize etcetera. But like he's good at stuff
models because the sweeper's insane.
But it's like, is that actually a pitch that like he's going to

(37:03):
be able to like, is he going to be a top 20 pitcher in baseball?
You know, I I don't think so. You know, and it's like a lot of
the time the guys who are big sweeper candidates are the ones
that pop and stuff. And yet those are the ones that
I don't really want in fantasy alot of the time.
I don't know why I've almost, we've come full circle on the
sweeper stuff where it's like itwas such a popular pitch.
Everyone had it. And now like I've come around on

(37:24):
it where it's like, I don't necessarily know if I want it in
a starting pitching prospect. You know, like I think a lot of
the guys on my Top 40 that I just released, like I don't
think a lot of the top ones haveit or I mentioned in the blurb
that I don't think the guy will throw it at the at higher
levels, you know, like a Thomas White or something like that, or
he's got this big loopy sweeper and it's like fun pitch grades
out. Well, he's actually going to
throw at his primary breaking ball, right.

(37:44):
He's he's also with Gary Crochetearlier in the year too.
Like he threw that pitch a lot. Like I talked to him about it
and he said that he like he justgot beat with it.
He got beat with it a couple times and like they were just
like throw the harder cutter in the same spot and it's like
complete, you know, second Wind after everyone dropped him in
home leagues and stuff, and I imagine some NFPC leagues as
well, he's probably dropped and scooped.
And it's like, yeah, he just threw the cutter in the same

(38:05):
spot. He threw the harder breaking
ball. He doesn't even he doesn't even
use a sweeper anymore. He uses it to lefties barely.
You know, it's like there's going to be a lot of that.
I think that that really matters.
And I don't know if it's just a command thing, a strikes thing
with starting pitchers, etcetera.
I just, I wonder whether we're going to have a pullback on like
sweeper starters. The ones I can think of are like
Logan Webb, Taner Hoke, you know, there's probably a couple

(38:26):
letters I'm missing as well. Michael King.
I don't know if he's a top 20 WAR guy right now.
I know he's been pretty good of late, but but yeah, I just I'm
I'm maybe this gets back to the player takes out of like I think
I'm more comfortable in like thehard bullet short pitch in a
starter, even if stuff plus doesn't love it, you know, So
that's just kind of where I'm atright now.
That's interesting. I always wonder like when a when

(38:46):
a guy like it's so crazy when we're all screaming out like the
same thing. Look, dude, like this pitch is
good for you. Why does such resistance
sometimes you think when like a pitcher or a team won't get a
pitcher to throw a specific pitch more?
You know, like where's that resistance come from?
Is it just stubbornness on the pitcher or the team not knowing

(39:09):
that good? I mean, team seems like they
have to be smart, right? No, just drive me nuts.
Like a lot of times we're discussing that like dude, so
this pitch more just seems to beworking for you.
Just wild how it's just we see it but they don't.
It's it's funny, yeah, I, I don't necessarily know.
I think a lot of teams are just pretty risk averse.

(39:30):
You saw with Kikuchi as well where it's like they weren't
willing to just completely kill the curveball.
They like slowly backed off it. And it's like, I just think when
you get really bad performance or team change, as I mentioned
earlier, that's when you have like the more dramatic flip in
certain things. But I don't know, I think teams
are like not really willing to make large changes in situations
most of the time. So that when you do see it in

(39:50):
like 100 Brown, I always think that's a pretty good indication
that that organization is probably pretty sharp in a, in a
variety of ways. So it's a good question, man, I
don't really know. I I would be curious to ask like
GMs and stuff whether they do retrospectives on pictures that
got traded from their org and what the other org did with
them. You know like.
I I think a lot of sometimes when I look at like I, I've run
into some instances where I've talked to coaches and they're

(40:11):
like, did you notice they did this with him on a prospect
side? And it's like, I did, yeah.
Did you guys like think about that or like etcetera?
And it's like, yeah, we tried topush it, but it just didn't
happen. It didn't get, you know, high
enough to a point where they actually got executed.
I do have a theory that like whenever you see a mixed change
or anything change with the pitcher that the prior
organization probably had that exact same idea.

(40:32):
It just never got to the top to the point where it actually was
executed. I'm I'm pretty confident in that
like like Garrett Cole throwing a four seed.
You know, it's like, I literallyheard that there were people in
the Pirates organization that were pushing for that.
It just never happened. So I, I wonder whether it's just
like there's blockers at certainpoints of that information flow
where it just gets shut down. But I don't think a lot of these

(40:52):
things are like novel. It's not like, Oh my God, they
came up with this insane idea togo with this pitch in this spot.
It's like, no, I think everyone in baseball would have done the
exact same thing. It's just matter whether you can
get it to fuel level to actuallyimplement and it's like that.
And maybe just comes down to like who's at the helm of
organizations? You know, like you probably I, I
wonder if there's a lean just towards smarter pitching coaches
there like Kyle Snyder, Caleb Koff and etcetera.

(41:13):
Like those orgs might just have more tolerance for that.
Whereas if you go to orgs that don't, then you're just not
going to get those changes. You know, I don't, I don't know,
but that's my theory right now. We had a a preseason.
So Rob Silver is always busting my balls because I'm always
talking about, oh, I'm like, youknow, the the Red Sox just got
the guys from the Twins and Andrew Bailey like and all

(41:34):
stuff. And like, did that really
matter? He always asked me, is that
matter to you, Rob? Going to draft all the Red Sox
now. I'm like, well, it's just, you
know. What worked out well this year?
It's just it's it's, it's interesting.
I guess it depends who and like what they've accomplished.
I just listened to a whole bunchof pods.
I'm, I'm forgetting the guy's name.
And when I went from the Twins, the Red Sox, man, I'm forgetting

(41:56):
his name. But I listened to a bunch of
pods with him in the offseason, you know, when that happened.
And I was like, oh, wow, this guy sounds really good.
He was talking about what, you know, what he was doing for
Pablo Lopez and all those other pictures there.
And I was like, oh, Amy Quetta Maeda.
And I was like, oh, this, this makes sense how we can go to the
Red Sox. And then it's like looking at
what he did there and then who had the stuff on the Red Sox to

(42:17):
like, maybe, you know, manipulate and be a little
better. And how could one of the guys
was like, I need to get some help this year, You know, I
don't know what. Happened.
I mean, it worked out, yeah, Butit's just he's taking a little
bit of a fall. I don't know, you know, what's
happened to him. But the swing and miss just like
kind of went bye, bye. And he's getting hit a bunch
now. But I just want to read off real

(42:38):
quick. I had my friend Steve Weimer run
off some correlations with standing gain points for our 5
by 5 game this year and of history.
So year to date correlations with stuff +2.
The standing gain points for a picture is .2 K minus walk .43
and fastball velocity .22. So fat ball velocity actually

(42:58):
had a better correlation to to your output for your fantasy
picture this year. And again, 5 by 5 really funny.
Isn't that like wild, you know, to so again, like, like we're
talking about here, like use it in certain ways.
Find that way, like you said, you find a variance that maybe
other people aren't using, but you know, just don't just don't

(43:19):
use that, you know, because I felt like a lot of times they
don't right yeah, I know becauselike by some like reactions I've
seen on Twitter and some, you know, analysis I've seen it's
just stuff plus like all it is and like we're talking about
here, K minus walk is again through the roof with, you know,
the best output for your your picture.

(43:39):
You know it's it's it's it's double ease important as stuff
plus. So it's just, I wanted to get
that out there and, and, and saythat because I, I was actually
pretty wowed by the performance of just fastball velocity, You
know, and even collation with K percentage is like stuff plus is
.4 swing a strike .7 fastball velocity again .55 S even with K

(44:00):
percentage stuff plus this like underperformed compared to just
straight up velocity, which is Ithink and obviously, you know,
it's not the same for every picture, but you still got some
a little bit of time right now, Lance.
I do can you, can you, I, I don't mean to jump your rundown,
but I some of these questions atthe end, questions at the end
from your discord are actually pretty good.

(44:20):
I don't know if you want. OK, so let's quick fire.
Yeah, I know these people, like obviously are engaged with
these. So you want to rip through
these? 100%, you can ignore mine.
OK, so our good friend Tim Tong,you know, if you became Yeah.
Jeff, do you want to read yours?Yeah, yeah, it was.
This was actually came, I've read it some other times, but
David Laura Fangraphs was talking to Spencer Orgetti about

(44:43):
this and it was basically Orgetti has moved to finding
what the hitter's weakness is and attacking it.
Like he may not be throwing his best pitch, but he's really
taking whatever he has and putting it to the hitter's
weakness. And I was just wondering when
are we going to start tracking that?

(45:04):
It seems like it's. This is now, this is great stuff
because I last postseason, I'll probably do it again this
postseason. I do like an advance scouting
video where I'll look at how I would approach like Trevor May's
done this too. I'd like to say Trevor May stole
my idea here, but I'm pretty sure he didn't.
He just did this because he's a Major League pitcher and he's
very good. But this is what everybody does,
right? This advance scouting stuff is
super important on a day-to-day basis.

(45:25):
This is literally like the pre game meaning of pitcher,
catcher, pitcher, coach, etcetera.
All these people like this is what you're doing.
So like I, I wonder whether we're going to get something
like that very soon. I don't the thing that I'm
uncertain on is like how much sample we need on the hitter's
side, you know, like, because some of this stuff can be like
pretty finicky where it's like, do we look at the last two years

(45:46):
of that hitter? Was there a skill change on that
hitter in the last, you know, six months that negates the
prior 12 months of performance? You know, I do think a lot of
this is like very in season fromwhat I understand, like on the
advanced scouting side, like this guy has not been good
versus this pitch. So we will throw it more, you
know, and then the other wet layer to wrap in that I do think

(46:07):
will that will help accelerate. This is when we get past data
eventually from baseball Savan is my understanding that we'll
get like attack angle stuff thatI think will help us perhaps
come up with these metrics that quantify exactly how you attack
a hitter, right. And I think it may just be as
simple as like we honestly may accelerate the death of like the
fastballs I call it, where it's like the guys with who reach a

(46:31):
zero attack angle earlier in their swing are the hitters that
have flatter paths. Therefore, those are the ones I
can catch forcing fastballs better.
You relate that to a bat speed and then you try to figure out
how comfortable you are throwingforcing versus that hitter, like
stuff like that. I think we might get to where we
might come up with like hitter fingerprints and then what those
fingerprints struggle against. And that's maybe how we back

(46:53):
into what you're talking about here in terms of the hitter
weakness. But this is like what I
mentioned earlier in this podcast, what I love looking at
now, which is like this individual hitter struggles in
this spot or even just like going to Savant and like their
heat maps are fine. I, I like Trinity's a lot
better, which is why I use that.But like, look at where the guy
just creates slug versus like hard and non hard stuff.
Like you'll come up with like a fingerprint of where you attack

(47:15):
a guy locationally. And then you can look at like,
OK, as a pitcher, what shape do you have that you can put in
those spots reliably? And then that's your game plan
for a hitter. You know, like that stuff's
super important. It's an integral part, I think
to like game to game baseball and pitching and what Major
League organizations do. And I do think it's something
right now on the public side that we're just kind of we just
don't really think about becausewe want to look at larger
samples, which I totally understand.
I just think there's like a lot of opportunity to be like to to

(47:37):
point out very interesting things based on what you're
talking about here in terms of hitter weakness.
But this is I think perhaps the next wave.
I just think we need some path data to help us out.
Do you love that? When are we going to like
everyone has like a stuffed model and they are got their
pitching ranks and they've got awhole site divided to listing

(47:57):
pitchers. When are like with this hitters?
Are people going to start doing the same thing with hitters
like? Yeah, I think this is common.
I think he knows he knows Jim. I know I've mentioned him a ton
of times, but I just really admire him as a as a person in
this media space. And he's always been a good guy
to me. So yeah, I think he's eventually
going to create like a stuff plus for hitters, right.
Like I think I think Robert Orr's done a great job on the

(48:20):
senior side from a from a process standpoint.
Yeah. I.
Met you. Exactly that that's I think
really good. I like the swing decision side
of things of like isolating out and that's probably the closest
we have right now to what you'retalking about.
But but yeah, I think we're going to come up with some kind
of path data. I just don't know if there's an
optimal this maybe gets back to like the limitations and stuff.

(48:40):
Plus, you know, as you're addingmore variables to an individual
metric, you start to cloud it and you're probably dropping to
R-squared. You know, like this is what we
run into all the time. It's like why fastball velocity
is probably slightly more predictive on to SGP then stuff
like you're just capturing too much.
It's really hard to remove perhaps locational elements from
a lot of movement metrics etcetera.
So it's just it's you run into these instances where like

(49:01):
sometimes the simpler thing works.
I think we might run into that with whatever hitting metric we
come up with. You know, it might be relatively
predictive relative to like, I don't know, barrel, but barrel's
probably the thing that's alwaysgoing to win, right?
I just think we're, we're not going to come up with a better K
minus walk. We're probably not going to come
up with a better barrel. You know, if it is, it's going
to be so complex from a creationof the individual statistics

(49:22):
standpoint that it's just not going to be easily communicated
to the point where people understand it more than a K
minus walk or a barrel. And I think that most of the
time on the stat space, and I'm not like a model or a coder,
etcetera, but most of the time Ijust find people are trying to
create things that are really hard to communicate.
But I think Seger's does a really good job of just like, I
think I think the answer to thatis just are you swinging where

(49:44):
you do damage? You know, like that's probably a
really good distillation of it. And the more you maybe layer on
to that, like maybe it then becomes, are you swinging where
you do damage relative to pitches that your path lines up
with? And it's like, that's probably a
little bit too long. And I imagine our square there's
going to be lower from a predictive process standpoint in
terms of what you're swinging at.
But is it more valuable perhaps?You know, like I I think that

(50:06):
that is what we're looking at. But yeah, there's a the, the
hitting we're going to get somewhere with hitting soon.
I think. I just think we really need like
contact point and path and. In my head, I'm like, and how
are we going to bake that into the Rad ball?
Weekly projections. Exactly.
Yeah, right. Maybe that's actually some point
you want to look at the fantasy application of it.
You know, right now you look at like lefty righty stuff, like

(50:27):
most of the I use like FTN and stuff like that, like like Vlad
and stuff. He gave me a comp sub and I love
that site in terms of just like his FAB stuff is really good.
Your fab stuff's really good to Rob like Jeff's too and stuff
like that stuff's important. But you look at lefty matchups,
righty matchups, that's a good thing.
A lot I think people do as a baseline to identify FAB targets
on the hitting side. I wonder if we get to, like,
once you have probables, lookingat the shapes of those

(50:48):
probables, you know, maybe this is an opportunity for someone to
get an edge where it's like, yeah, yeah.
Oh, it's not just that, like, like this guy's seeing an
average amount of righties and lefties.
He's a righty. He will probably start five of
the six games this week. You know, can you predict what
five games of those he's going to start based on the shapes?
And then if you look at how thatguy performs against those
specific shapes, if there's sometheme and do you think that

(51:09):
relative to his projection, likehe actually performs well
against these shapes? So I'll take a shot on him or
I'll put an extra $3 fab on him and it'll work like that is
perhaps an iteration that someone may be able to have an
edge on over the next two years that the public might take a
while to catch. Yeah, all.
Right, so Tim Tongs wanted to know if Lance became the GM of
Colorado tomorrow and had a guaranteed 10 year run, how

(51:29):
would you build a pitching staff?
I think this question is really cool.
It's good. The question here that I would
have to ask back is what is the budget like?
Because the thing to do is just to chase.
I'm not as I'm serious, it's like to chase velocity.
I think that's the way to probably not really care about
anything from a altitude standpoint.
Like velocity is always going towin.
I don't believe there's massive velocity differences, You know,
like I, I would imagine that in cores velocity is as effective

(51:52):
as it is elsewhere. You know, like the the gains I'm
saying from like 93 to 9494 to 9595 to 96, Like I don't think
that's going to change dramatically.
Like your gain from pumping velocity in course is probably
going to be as good. So push velocity a ton.
The problem is that's probably more expensive on open market.
So the angle you can go with then is to either look at a
splitters or B hard gyro slidersand I would have really

(52:14):
prioritized those kinds of pitchers.
The problem right now with the the Rockies is they have like a
really fun pitcher, Chase Dahlnder, who's a Tennessee guy
who they kind of corrected. He's a he's like a top ten
pitching prospect in baseball. I think consensus from what I've
seen in a lot of the recent ranks and in my ranks as well,
he is going to lose a ton of stuff in course.
Like it's just he he has kind ofa tighter slider, but he's like

(52:35):
a carry two plane fastball guy, Lil slot good extension with
Vilo and I just don't like that pitch is going to this is not
going to be good in course. So like I don't know what to do
with him. You know, he's a pitcher that
like, if I don't know, I guess you like, you can't trade him.
You know, you drafted him. Like Brody Breck's another one.
They drafted him. He's like this Iowa kid.
I think the slider's good. You know, it's kind of like a

(52:57):
downer gyro shape. So maybe they were looking at
that to some extent. But like his fastball is not
good. And like he's going to like he
can't throw the fastball in course.
It's going to get destroyed. So like, is he a, is he a 90%
slider splitter pitcher? It's like, I would probably say
yes because I just wouldn't wantto throw in the fastball.
But the first thing is, yeah, you know, let me know the money.
I'd probably lean towards Velo if I can't do that because all

(53:19):
those guys are too expensive. I'd really try to push jabber
sliders and splitters, and then I would just pull down the usage
on every imaginable fastball. I'd be more comfortable walking
hitters than I would putting balls in play because that
outfield from a hits perspectiveis just insane.
So I'd just be fine, like throw,give me 90% splitter slider, you
know, and just stop throwing your fastball.
And I don't care if you walk, you know, 5 per nine.

(53:41):
I care what your hit per nine is.
You know, that's like, that's maybe where I'd start.
I wonder if someone has better thoughts, but that's where I'd
start. I like that.
I think the I think. Just just a quick thing.
I think someone should go there and create a stuff for every
pitch in Colorado. Yeah, that's a, that's a good
way to look at it, right? Yeah, like and see what works
there. Like everyone that's thrown

(54:03):
their what works there. And then have your own lab
create those pitches for your guys.
Like, yes, your slider is the best.
It's going to be at a lower level.
But up here you're going to havehalf your games.
This is how you should be throwing it.
And we absolutely know the Rockies haven't even thought of
this. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

(54:23):
Like I don't think that. Organization is so badly run
like it hasn't even crossed their mind.
Like they're like driveline. Fuck that place.
Like not only alone creating their own something like that.
So I I think that would be the way to start to see what pitches
work up there and just start building up from there.
But it's not happening right now.
It's not. I think you could also relate

(54:44):
that back to like market and seeif there's a particular pitch
that the market undervalues thatactually works better chorus.
So if you're looking at from like a budget cost saving, I
don't want to spend money standpoint, I actually think
there's ways to go about it thatwould be really sharp where it's
like, oh, we found that these gyro sliders don't generally pop
in models, Therefore teams and free agent side and markets
aren't going to care about them.But like they work in our

(55:05):
stadium. So like we're willing to pay
like slightly above market valuefor this guy because he'll get
half his games here where we think his pitch won't degrade as
much. I think the answer there would
just be like velocity. But I do think you can boil down
below that and look at shapes and there's got to be something
in there. I agree.
I would bet it's I bet it's gyrosliders and splitters.
Like I think those would be the two that I'd be willing to pay
slightly more for relative to market and and probably not be

(55:28):
overpaying per Southeast. Mr. Not Nice wants to know if he
got a young pitcher that may be going to take a big positive
step next year. Kumar Rocker, I believe that
he's really undervalued. This guy dominated the SEC.
He ran into a bunch of injury problems.
His stuff looks absolutely incredible right now in AA.
If he gets to AAA, that is when everyone will realize he's very

(55:49):
good because you'll get data on it and then you'll see everyone
post the stuff numbers and they'll be like, how's this guy
on the top ten pitching prospect?
And it's like, well, because no one probably believes he's going
to stay healthy. You have internal brace, you
know, so like that probably gives him a 2-3 or runway if you
assume nothing else happens. But that guy's yeah, he's very
good. I think I'm, I, I try to plant
my flag there with my Top 40. I have him top 20.

(56:10):
I believe I'm the only person tohave him inside top 50.
When that rank came out, he was basically dead everywhere.
But he's he's velocity. It strikes.
It's like a harder Zebby Matthews.
Let's go with that with I think a better slider.
You seen him in ages next year. I think there's a non zero
chance he breaks. Yeah.
I think I'd say there's a like awe'll go 5% right now.

(56:31):
You got to you got to keep it low just because 5% with a
chance to maybe go to like 15 to20% as we get into the
offseason. But yeah, he's good.
He's a very good pitcher. I'm in on him.
Good stuff. One more, one more thing.
What what did the community get wrong on prospects for redraft?
That that, that you think is thebiggest stake.
That's a tough one. I saw that one.
Somebody want to go to his. I don't know if I have a great

(56:52):
answer here. Prospects, redraft.
I think the I think The thing isprobably just giving up too
quick. I would say we saw with Taj,
there's probably other guys thatcome to mind as well.
We're just in a weird spot wherethe guys that are coming up on
the offensive side and you couldargue even on the pitching side,
right? Like I almost wish David Feston
didn't have that start at Wrigley that he pitched really
well in. I wish that he just got some

(57:12):
back down and sucked for the rest of the year.
Jack Leiter's another one. I don't mean to go back to the
Rangers, but like he was very bad and I really liked his stuff
And I kind of I kind of get myself on him on my list where I
pulled him way down. I think he's like, I think I had
him as like my 41. So he just missed, but I had him
like top 20 because I thought everything was great there.
I'm pretty sure he was tipping. And that's another one where

(57:33):
it's like, I don't think anyone's thought about Jack
Leiter in two months. And the stuff was pretty good
there. Like everything looked fine and
like everyone's pulled off. So like I think that there's
just too much market correction on guys from like a longer term
standpoint where it's like the guy comes up, looks terrible,
goes down. Kate Povich, you know, some of
these other guys where it's likeI I would defer back to like

(57:54):
what we all thought before the 1st sample of Major League
performance. I think that that holds a little
bit truer. So just just don't overreact, I
guess is the way to think about it in season.
I'm fine with it, right? Like you need performance on
your team. I'm down the stretch in a few
teams and my pitching is just really struggling.
Like I can't hold if if David Festa hadn't had a starter two

(58:15):
that were good. You know, I can't hold David
Festa and assume that he's goingto pitch well, you know, so like
I got to drop him and maybe go towards like a Miles Michaelis,
who I am pretty sure is just going to give me six with three
urns and a chance for a win. You know, it's like boring as
hell. But like, I don't know, I can't
get blown up because my ratios are really terrible.
So like, but when I'm thinking of next year, I'm looking at
these guys that came up and pitched terribly that have a
chance to break camp, who had like reasonable stuff, good

(58:37):
projection, good minor league statistics and maybe do
something interesting. I love it.
So I just, I just want to give up as quick on guys as everyone
seems to be. Man, you know, you got to go,
but it was a pleasure having you, bro.
And we'll talk again in the offseason in a couple times
because for sure, for sure, thathas a lot of stuff.
I mean, I can go on. Like we could talk for five
hours, yeah. You got a lot more on this list.
Yeah, it's a good questions in here.
Yeah. 100% but I appreciate it, Lance.

(58:58):
Thank you so much. Yeah, take it as you guys good
seeing you. Later, man.
All right, Jeff, you want to rundown a little bit of your recent
mining the news before we head out of here in this wonderful
day? Yeah.
The one other thing I will bringup now with with Lance all the
way is with the process this year, Tanner's not able to

(59:21):
contribute or if he is, it's going to be very little like
he's, he can't plan on it. He can't make anything with the
medical issues he's dealing withhis family.
So we're actually paying a decent amount compared to what
everyone else is. We are probably still looking
for like 3 or 4 contributors that willing to do a larger

(59:42):
research. If you guys just contact me via
Twitter or at Jeff W Zimmerman or if you're in the Pole Hitter
Patreon, just hit me up and we can see what's available.
Like I said, there's been some great people that have already
taken some work. Patrick Davits going to seems
like he's going to be taking a lot.
He kind of jumped in and was working on some.

(01:00:05):
Yeah. So like I said.
There's a lot I'm going to stilldo some, like the big one for me
is going to be the stuff one, like I'm just going to dive in
until I get every answer and if someone wants an answer, let's
just get it while we're in thereand then we can just move on
with our lives with it and look into other stuff.
But no, there's, there's been some great stuff Someone's
looking into how early, heavy spending early or late matters

(01:00:32):
in the NFPC and stuff like that,like I love.
That. So like I said, there's some
great topics and there's plenty more to go through.
So if you're interested, just hit me up and we'll I can go
through the details. You'll have a couple months this
offseason or you can even start now looking into some of the

(01:00:53):
things. So that's the funding I have now
and. Great, great opportunity there
to contribute to the, you know, the best offseason publication
that you could get to really further your your fantasy skill
set. I would help you, Jeff, but I
got something very ambitious. I'm trying to do be before first

(01:01:14):
pitch Arizona. So when the season starts, I'm
going to start start blurbing onprobably a top 20 in each
position. I want to have something ready
for first pitch for for everyoneto go through when I get there.
So I'm going to be busy crankingthose blurbs and maybe a little
bit of I never did rankings before and I might try that out.

(01:01:36):
But before we go there, so and but the key to that, Jeff, is
not to get into four slow draftsat once.
Otherwise you kill, otherwise you.
Start the first one. It starts Wednesday.
It's going to be the 21st of August.
We're starting on Meatball DC. We're going to do 11 rounds this
year versus 7. So we do 11 rounds live, fast

(01:02:00):
draft dial, no clock. We just, you know, go through
and pick and then we'll resume it once the NFPC switches over
the site and is able to transferour picks that we made now into
the, you know, into the draft room and make it functionable.
So sometime in October that willresume, but the 1st 11 round
will be in on Wednesday. So you'll get to see the 1st 165

(01:02:21):
picks of the NFPC draft championseason next Wednesday, which is
going to be fun. I drew a pick right in the
middle of the first round, so it's going to be interesting to
see how it plays out. I got to do some, I got to do
some research in the next coupleof days to really get some kind
of a loose attack. But it's going to be fun.
It's going to be fun. It's fun looking at eligibility.

(01:02:44):
That's that's what I'll say is the first thing I've went to.
And you'll be surprised how manypeople are not going to have
positions next year like deemingjust utility only.
And obviously the the like a guythat lost, you know, like wit
and gunner and Ellie losing, youknow, third base is, is, I know

(01:03:05):
it's just stupid, but you know, it's, it was a big fact, you
know, the big assets for those guys.
So I'm looking forward to that for sure.
All right, let's do a quick mindin the news and then I'm going
to get out of here. Zach Decenzo taking some
outfield refs. Jeff he he he didn't play the
last two games And I'm is that maybe just to focus on outfield

(01:03:28):
defense in the meantime? I mean, it looks like he was
taking full over first base. We see Chad McCormick, who made
four straight starts, first to the righty for the first time, I
think in a long time this season.
He went over four with four KS yesterday.
So they're probably in a rush toget some sort of help.
I know they tried their hand at Pedro Leon, but how are you
dealing with that send? I don't know if you had any

(01:03:49):
interest in him this weekend in Fab.
I did I I I tried to in a couplespots and got outbid.
The one issue was is I am still just as a whole kind of hurting
for pitching and since he was util only, he really wasn't a
backup anywhere. And I have quite a few utils

(01:04:11):
still on my team. We've got a couple of Zunas and
Otani's and it's like I really just couldn't have him and you
really don't know what's going to happen.
Like I don't mind taking a chance on a guy like this if at
least I can plug him in, but I'mnot going to plug him in for
Otani. Like he's just kind of a total
chance. I think once he gets the

(01:04:33):
eligibility, he's getting close probably.
Like I think he's at six games. I was looking at he should be
people should end up rostering him.
From what it sounds like the Astros are trying anything for
outfielders. Like I would not be surprised if
like, Oh my Ahmed Rosario through the I know there's some

(01:04:54):
order. I can't remember if if they have
to go through all the NL 1st andthen it starts in the AL There's
but I know some teams are going to.
I could use another outfielder and I'm pretty sure they're
going to end up paying for it. And that's Astros seem like one
that's perfect. Like, oh, we can get a backup
middle with actually a probably a better hitter than Devon and

(01:05:16):
they can add him. I can see someone like the
Royals. So I think that's going to be an
interesting one. I think someone's actually going
to claim him and, you know, and trade the Dodgers some AA
reliever for it. But yeah, the asteroids just
seem like they're really hurtingfor that, a final get
outfielder. And I'm kind of wonder if

(01:05:37):
they're a little bit mad that they didn't move at the trade
deadline with I cannot think of the guy, the guy that's like,
Shin's been hurt forever. Kyle Tucker.
Tucker Yeah. Like, I think they expected
Tucker to be back earlier and they should have made a move to
replace him, but they're still winning.
I mean, that's kind of the key. But I I think you want to,

(01:05:59):
you're not wanting to go in withthat outfield into the playoffs.
Absolutely. Joe Adele simplified his swing
getting into the leg kick drop down to K percentage, still got
the power intact. He's the 50th outfielder on the
play rate for the whole season Despite that 2O3 average.
And ever since I picked him up off a Fab, I mean, it was one of

(01:06:19):
my largest bids in a couple of leagues.
I mean, I mean, he he's just like an everyday player on me
right now. I know that power speed is just
really hard to come by in one package.
You know, you can't get all three a lot and get the batting
average. But he'd been really good.
I think. I think his fortunes have really
taken a turn for the better and his, you know, his future at

(01:06:42):
least looks a little better in fantasy.
Yeah, he got the hard. I actually kind of think like
his trying to find his ex batting average.
Yeah, it's pretty. It's a lot higher.
Like everything points to him. He's hitting the ball hard.
It's not a complete uppercut. He's getting there.
Like he really can't add too much more of an uppercut the.
Thing about him too, is he takesthe ball everywhere.

(01:07:03):
Like he hits the ball with authority, top the field with
like with the best of them. You know, he's just like the
velocity, the opposite and and, and center are strong.
Like he's got he's and he doesn't try to pull everything,
which I think is really key is expected batting average off the
bottom, it's 227. So it's like 2023.25 points
higher, which is, yeah. It's good.

(01:07:24):
So no, I think he he's turned into I don't know if it's I
think people were kind of hopinghe was a 30 home run guy, which
he made. I mean pro rating out this
season. That's where he's at.
Like I think he's going to be surprisingly God well rostered
like I the batting average. Like I said, I don't think could

(01:07:44):
be the slow. He's got the strikeout rate
down. He has been working on that.
There was some news that he was besides even simplifying the
swing, like not swinging at crapwas the basic the gist of it.
I mean, his swinging strike rates at a career low.
It's down a ton. I I think some people have just
it's one of those ones like he'smaking the changes.

(01:08:05):
It's taken him a while. He's 25 like judge didn't even
enter the league until this age.So I'm I I think he's going to
be kind of a nice sleeper. We'll see where he ends up
going. Yep.
Actually, if he goes in that first 165, I know I'm like you
guys don't. Take him, no one take him.

(01:08:27):
The goal is the good, yeah. The goal is to get everyone
drafted that we don't want to see with high ADP next.
Exactly. Like I would totally be like,
all right, who do I like? It'd be the draft.
I would draft everyone I hate, like let's put we're pushing
Trout up, we're pushing everyoneelse up.
It's like the Zach Plesac, like he just could not fall and

(01:08:47):
everyone's like, dude, he's horrible.
And it's like all right, we're just going to keep him up here.
He's a fifth round tower target.Zach Plesac, he started that way
and it was like, yeah, just everyone don't draft Adele.
So at least he's after that. No one's looking at him.
Just you guys need to all get together and I don't know how
much money you guys going to line, maybe someone's just going
to take that 500 bucks or whatever and roll with it.

(01:09:09):
I mean, this, this league, that league that we're going to do
will be part of the overall as it has been the last couple
years. So, you know, Jason DuPont, I
mean, which is pretty impressive, but his team is in
the Top 40 for starting a draft last August, which is mightily
impressive, but continues to be an impressive feat.
One last thing. Before we.
Yeah. One last thing, the Saint Louis

(01:09:31):
Cardinals, they've got up. Jordan Walker, it looks like
he's only going to be playing versus lefties.
But is do you have any lean versus, you know, with the fam
and the new bar and Gorman? Is there any of those guys that
you're like, yeah, hold on to for sure.
Or any of those guys you're like, yeah, I can't like APT
won't be big enough. Like in a 12 team.

(01:09:53):
It's almost like, I mean, I cut new bar and fam this weekend in
a 12. Are you know, I hold that I hold
on to fam in a 15 and new bar aswell, just in case I wanted to
see one more week of it. But in twelves I immediately
taught them. There was a fam I have and I
can't remember. I need to go look to see if I
didn't drop him or there in a 15.

(01:10:15):
I might have been to the point, like, OK, he's I put like four
guys on this listing. He's the fifth guy.
You know what I'm saying? It's not like he's hurt.
It's just there's nothing available.
But Alec Barolson's not been playing as much either.
That one's kind of been more painful for me.
Is he kind of sitting once or twice a week?
And it's kind of random, but it's nice for him to get the

(01:10:37):
first base. But with like everyone healthy,
it seems like they're trying to appease everyone well.
He has two he sat twice since August 1st and that was like
this first two sets and since like June.
So I guess maybe maybe he'll play like 70% of the time versus
lefties Burleson, you know, like, but it seems he he seems

(01:10:57):
to be still locked in. I know it was, I think it was on
a Monday or Friday, which kind of always annoys me.
It was it was the Monday right to lead off the week and I was a
little and that was the first game post Walker.
So I was like, oh boy, here we go.
You know, yeah, I know that could be that could be scary
going forward. But I mean, he's got like what,
the third best OPS on the team for the season or a second?

(01:11:17):
It's no way to consider him. I know the OPS versus Vitis,
it's horrible, but his production has been so good.
Yeah, I'm surprised Victor Scott's been.
Yes, playing too much. Coming up, like he's made some
changes, it made the adjustment.The Cardinals seem to love their
defense in center field, like they love that defense up the
middle with Wynn and Scott. And I think like in your draft,

(01:11:43):
I don't Scott's not draftable. I'm really don't think he's a
top 70 player, 170 or it'll be like 2090 hitters.
I don't know how what this what's going to be, but he's one
where it's like in any redraft league.
I'm plugging it. I'm going to be taking him if if
that's where he's going in like the 29th round, like we'll see

(01:12:03):
what happens. Like no matter if it's a 12 or a
15, wherever he's going, it's like Scott's going to be like,
we'll see what happens. If not, you just drop him like
right away. But I think that he'll have a
high ADP just for people to see what's going on.
And then if there's nothing there, then you drop him and
move on with your life. But.

(01:12:25):
That's it, just move on with your life.
That's that. And that's what we're going to
do too. I realize I'm pretty cutting it
close to a doctor's appointment.So we're going to get on out of
here. Jeff, thanks for getting back
the half the clan. Hopefully, Rob get back next
week, which will be sorely awesome for the whole crew here.
And thanks for everyone for listening to Lance joining us

(01:12:46):
this weekend and on the Launch Angle podcast.
And we'll see you next week. Peace.

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EP 204 | A Conversation w/ Guest Lance Brozdowski

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}EP 204 | A Conversation w/ Guest Lance Brozdowski