EP 217: Pete Alonso, Tigers Bullpen + ADP Analysis

Episode Transcript
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(02:35):
Alright, welcome into the launchangle Pod.
I'm Rob D I'm here with Rob Silver.
We're about to get into some recent baseball news.
Go down some ADP. What's up Rob?
How you doing this morning? It's, it's like I'm living on
the fucking North Pole here. Rob Ho ho ho.
Merry Christmas. My, my son is in the high school
band and they had their Christmas concert yesterday.

(02:58):
And like any parent, it's like it's, it's a, it's a joy.
It warms your heart seeing your little little boy or girl up on
stage. He's in high school that plays a
saxophone and he's in both the junior concert band and the
junior jazz bands. And like every parent, and I
know I'm this is the the lamest,oldest rant there is His high
school and high school here goesfrom grade 9 to grade 12.

(03:21):
So it's four years has 10 different bands.
So it was like 3 hours of of just brilliance.
Every single band was better than the last band as long as
your kid was in that band. If your kid wasn't in that band,
it's like just let's get to the one my kids in being like I told

(03:41):
my son before the concert, like his his the junior concert band
was his first stop. Lead off, batting lead off.
You want to bat lead off. Yeah.
And then the junior jazz band was bet damn smacked in the
middle and like so like an hour in and then there was another
hour of bands that my kid is notin to go.

(04:04):
And I was like, buddy, what if Icome stay for like the junior
Contra bands bad and lead off can all wait.
I'm so friggin excited for it. Listen to the jazz band and then
bugger off and I'll come pick you up when it's over because I
understand you can't leave. He's like, well, like just just
stay dad, like don't you care? And like, and he gives me the

(04:26):
Jewish guilt trip that I'm not staying for his whole.
Anyways, I stayed for the whole thing.
It was brilliant. Merry Christmas.
Yeah, Merry Christmas, you filthy animal it.
Yeah, they, they, they would have made, they would have made
about $100 million if they were selling alcohol at the concert

(04:46):
yesterday. Because every single parent
like, it was, it was brilliant there.
The children are are are like Mozart combined with like, I
don't know, name your favorite famous jazz music, but it's just
a lot anyways. Just, I played in jazz and the
concert band and symphonic band when I was in high school and in

(05:07):
junior high as well. And it's, it's an experience.
That whole night is a big night for us.
But I know what you're saying because, you know, everyone
wants to know when you're gonna play.
When are you gonna? When's your Part 2 and what
song? When you I'm like I'm it's
always happening. Why?
Why didn't you have a solo in the jazz band this year, George?
Last year you had lots of solos.Anyways, it's a, it's a, it's a

(05:28):
pleasure. Yes, Major League Baseball
winner meetings dropped up. It was semi busy, not like super
busy in depth, but we had some big movement happen.
My Mets, he's moved on from PeteAlonso.
He goes to the Orioles. There are stacking bats over
there in Baltimore and the offense looks quite formidable

(05:50):
now if they end up keeping most of these pieces.
But what do you think about Big Pete over in Baltimore?
I think it's, I mean, look, PeteAlonso makes them a better team
for 2026. I think it's interesting that
they tried to get Kyle Schwarberfirst and Pete Alonso was
obvious. They reallocated the money
almost dollar for dollar on whatwas reported for them trying to

(06:12):
get Schwarber for Pete Alonso. I think that's interesting.
They do have enough lineup flexibility where signing a
first base versus versus, I mean, signing ADH only in Kyle
Schwarber or signing a first base who really is almost ADH
only in Pete Alonso. I understand why.

(06:32):
I understand why. It's like going into a roto
auction and saying I want to spend $30 on this player and if
he goes $35, I'll spend $30 on this.
You know, I want a Cunha, but ifI don't get a Cunha, I'll take
you know, I don't know, I'll take Tatis instead and I'll save
a couple of dollars. I totally get why that, but it's

(06:53):
a little bit interesting to me that that obviously if Schwar
Schwarber had accepted their money, Pete Alonzo is not in
Baltimore right now. True.
Yeah, that's and and probably wouldn't be on New York either,
considering it didn't seem like they had too much interest in
getting into the quote UN quote bidding war.
That was Pete Alonzo. Yeah, I mean, I don't I don't

(07:17):
want I don't want to like pour salts in the in the proverbial
wound. I think I think it must be.
I would imagine it's both frustrating because you have
this wealthier than God owner and you see with the day that he
takes over from the Will palms, it's like finally the tap.
We will be the biggest market and we will be the biggest

(07:37):
swinging Dick team. We will keep our guys.
We will sign new guys. We will do all the things and at
the same time, like locking up Pete Alonso for five, there
ultimately is a limit to every team.
And I make the comment like they're all billionaires.
They can spend whatever money they want.
But the reality is there is an opportunity cost with

(07:58):
everything. You sign one guy $30 million a
year, by definition, at a certain point you can only spend
so much money. I'm not sure as much as Pete
Alonso is an icon for the Mets that he is the best use of that
$30 million. So then the question is, as a
Met, if I'm a Mets fan, so how do they reallocate him and the
Edwin Diaz money instead? And that's a big fair question.

(08:21):
If I'm a Mets fan, the first who's going to play first base
this year, It may not be Pete Alonso, but you can get like 90%
Pete Alonso pretty easily. It's and, and, and Edwin Diaz
like like we'll, we'll talk about closers.
I'm sure like that. I don't think the Mets bullpen
is going to be their problem this year.
To the extent there's ball starting pitching, that's the

(08:42):
issue. So it'll, I, I think it's, it's
tough to judge the Mets at this second in time because the
offseason isn't over yet for them.
Yeah, it's definitely tough to judge them right now, and I'm
trying to remind myself of that every single second of the day
because this current iteration is makes me want to and just the

(09:02):
way it's gone down makes me wantto call up and resent my season
tickets. Don't.
Be that. Because I'm just I'm not being
that Met fans. I'm telling you what's going on
in my brain because Peter Londo is a big goof, but he's our big
goof and he produced every single day.
And I think what they've under calculated that wasn't accounted

(09:24):
for it any column of their fucking spreadsheet was how
fucking mad the Met fans will benext year in Citi Field.
So the do what you might call that little space of OK, we'll
bring the benefit of the doubt. We'll see what happens.
It's small, it's going to be small.
I don't care what they do. They can trade for Tatis.
They can sign fucking, you know,forever Valdez.

(09:46):
It doesn't matter. Like when they step into the
ballpark, it's going to be like this better be better than we
were with Pete, you know, because he brought it.
He brought it and top, you know,top 20 WRC plus in baseball in
2022, fourth in home runs. I know his defense sucked, but
it it sucks. It's it's it's.
And I know they could replace it.
Quote UN quote, you know? No, I I totally I get what

(10:09):
you're saying. I get, I get I totally get what
you're saying. Where does he rank in the
Patheon of all time Mets? I assume he's right up there
with like Daryl and Doc and Keith in terms of like all time,
like pick based on when your youth was kind of thing.
But he's right up there all time.
Yeah, yeah, 100% yeah. Because I think he you saw like

(10:32):
he left it out on the like, you saw everything Petalando was,
there was no mask of who is thisguy?
You knew everything. He left it all out in the field.
He he did so many good things inthe community.
I mean, he even got them to likewhere the first responders had
because Major League Baseball wasn't too fucking smart enough
to do it. So he was like, hey, the Mets

(10:52):
were the first team to like, youknow, get into that.
And Alando was the main driver of that.
I just think there's so many good things about Big Pete.
Yeah, but I put him in the top echelon, of course.
If I ask you the question without, without, without,
without, without, without quoting war, who is the greatest
man of all time? The greatest man of all time.
So I'm not, I'm not, I'm not looking for like this guy

(11:14):
produced 38.7 war versus 35 point.
Just if I ask if you're sitting at a sports bar in in in Queens
with me and I used to say who's your who's your best man of all
time? Who do you spit out?
Is it Tom Seaver or like, is that the lazy answer?
Or is it? Is it?
Is it like strawberry or? I think Seaver is lazy and, and

(11:35):
and also a little bit lame. I'll say.
I would say strawberry. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And I, and my guess is if you start digging in the case for
why Pete Alonzo is really, really, really close to
strawberry, if not better, is like if you actually start doing
more than just kind of vibes andmemories is probably pretty

(11:56):
strong actually all time home run leader, which you know, is
what it is. But anyways, it's an interesting
question. And and and I will say Jacob
degrom is very close because I think is good.
Like Pete degrom was like that Pedro esque dominant kind of
guy. And he was, you know, he
captured it in that small, smalltime.

(12:17):
He was there with the Mets just really good.
But yeah, so I don't know how the Mets fill this out currently
if they if they want to stick Jeff McNeil there.
That's been some rumors stickingJeff McNeil on a on a strong
side, but I think people don't realize he's like really good
versus lefties too. So that could be a possibility.
There's rumored to be trading for maybe Wilson Contreras, Ryan

(12:38):
O'hearn would be a good fit in my eyes, good defensively, kind
of in line with what they want to do.
But like you said, this team is far from done.
Robert Suarez to the Braves three years, $45 million.
They have said that Ricelle Glassy has will remain the
closer. I don't have a share of Suarez.
I haven't drafted him in a couple years.

(12:58):
I was just a little bit nervous that this might happen with him.
I'm shocked that it did though, because of the stole avenues for
him to become a closer elsewhere.
What do you? Think, I mean, I, I guess for
Suarez it's like this is his bigcontract.
So like close pitch to the 7th, 8th inning.
What is he? How old is he when he's this is
done? He's like 39 years old.

(13:19):
So maybe he's Fernando Rodney and it pisses him off.
But I I don't, I don't, I don't I I guess I get why for him.
It's like, give me the best contract in a city I want to
live in and I'm happy. The thing that here's the
question. So we know what this does for
Suarez's fantasy value. Does this make you like the
thing with Iglesias once he signed with Atlanta was they're

(13:43):
both he he's both a good enough pitcher that he can hold the job
all year. They've shown that they're an
organization that's not gonna play silly bugger.
So he keeps the job. Does this make, does this create
a tinge of uncertainty, and I'm not trying to overstate it, but
a tinge of uncertainty that if he happens to blow 2-3 games in

(14:04):
in a 10 day period, they now have a really good option just
sitting there in a way that theydidn't before.
So again, I'm not trying to shittalk the guy and saying I would
take him, you know, in the will vest category obviously.
But if I'm sitting at a draft table, this doesn't make me feel
better about Iglesias. Like what?
This is all based on one unnamedKen Rosenberg, a quote saying a

(14:30):
brave source says he will remainthe closer.
And then other people are just kind of running with it.
Now that makes intuitive sense. So I'm not saying that it's
wrong, but if I'm sitting at thedraft table, it does.
Like there's going to be a nagging little voice there for
me with Iglesias. If there's another guy on the
same tier still there. I don't know what you think of
that. I think that's fair because I

(14:52):
think you have to visualize lastseason right as as the season
start to unfold. And Ricel Iglesias through June
has a 546 ERA and A14 WHIP. And I know the underlying stuff
says he's been better, but, you know, having trouble giving up

(15:14):
runs, home runs. And over those 29 innings, I got
a wonder, you know, with Robert Suarez there and not Dylan Lee,
how that affects it, You know, So I think any, I think you're
totally right. I think any stretch of miss,
miss performance and, and just not being able to close it down,
I don't know how many would haveto be per SE 2 blown saves, 3 or

(15:39):
just struggles with a pitch per SE.
And I, you know, it could be a situation.
So it definitely puts a little bit of a little bit of doubt on
the glaciers. And I like how they they said
he's going to be the guy. But it's interesting.
I don't know. Can you explain to me how
they're essentially both the same age?
One guy gets three years, one guy gets one.

(16:00):
Yeah. It's, I guess, I mean, what's
that about? Is.
It's, it's, I, I mean, I, we, we, we all know what it is,
which is the, it's a market. There were lots of teams who
wanted Suarez as their closer. There were, there were, there
was there were less teams based on what we can deduce who wanted
Iglesias as closer. So I mean, that's what that

(16:22):
that's what you had to do if youwanted Suarez 'cause there were
obviously other teams who were shopping there.
But the difference between them is narrower than I think people
think. Or what the contract, as you
say, Rob would suggest that theyare.
They're much more similar. And the other thing, and again,
I'm not trying to shit on Iglesias is when you have a guy
like Suarez, it's a long frigginseason.

(16:44):
There is way less need to push Iglesias back-to-back day for
for saves. So I just like if I'm if I'm an
Iglesias owner, I'm not celebrating this news.
It's like I dodged a bullet maybe, but I'm not celebrating
this news in any way. It's not good news for Iglesias,
and it's obviously devastating news for Suarez from a fantasy
value for this year. Good good friend at a pod,

(17:08):
Robert Orr, he of the Seger creator a great tweet.
He said the AA stands for doubleARP and I had a good one about
that. Especially you know how I love
to quip at out the top the. Rays are so freaking weird, Rob.
I don't under. We don't talk.

(17:29):
I mean, we dwell on the discord so much about the Mets, about
the Blue Jays, about the Orioles, about the Reds, talks
about the Yankees like we shit on, we have a very narrow band
of teams we shit on. We don't spend a lot of time
talking about the Braves. It's like, on the one hand, the
Braves are like broke. We can't afford anybody.
And on the then they're handing out $45 million contracts for

(17:50):
their 7th, 8th inning guy. It's it's just a weird, I don't
understand, like the I don't understand the Braves.
Yeah, neither. Neither do I.
But where do you think this ultimately chips down Iglesias a
little bit in the draft and how far?
Do you? I think, I think it's a
tiebreaker, so I'm nitpicking, but I think that especially in

(18:14):
DC season when you're spending apretty good pick on relief
pitchers, you need to nitpick. So like, do I nitpick on Hoffman
because the Jays are clearly looking for somebody else?
Damn straight. I do.
And like his price has come down.
I don't think he gets a discount.
I think that I'm being like paranoid with what we're talking

(18:35):
about. I think Iglesias probably stays
roughly where he's been going from an AVP perspective.
OK, yeah. What?
What do you where would you put Suarez?
Like, why would you consider drafting Robert Suarez now if
you were like, really? This spot is pretty interesting.
Maybe I'll take a stab here. Really late.

(18:56):
Like, like, like what? I, I think that it is, as I put
it this way, if I were in Vegas right now and betting over under
on saves, I think Flanagan gets more saves for Detroit than
Suarez gets for Atlanta. Finnegan, Finnegan.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, why do I say Flanagan?
Finnegan gets more saves more saves for Detroit than than

(19:17):
Suarez does, so I think that Suarez is a better pitcher.
But I I if if all I care if I'm just whoring it out for saves.
I think Finnegan has both a realpath towards a third of the
saves. Yep, and it's not crazy to me
that he gets 2/3 and Vas gets 1/3 whereas weird shit has to
happen at this point for for Suarez to flip around.

(19:40):
Now he's an injury away from being a top five closer again in
baseball. But you can say that about a lot
of freaking guys. What about like when you pit him
against like the Griffin Jacks and you set this like, would you
rather have Suarez or one of those guys?
I I'd rather have jacks if I'm being honest Rob because Jax is

(20:01):
1 managerial comment away from being the guy, whereas we just
got a comment from, I assume themanager.
So let's assume that everything is sourced properly, which maybe
it's not. But if we assume that we
basically just a caught a comment saying this guy is not
the guy. So at this point if I'm if if

(20:23):
the cost was the same. At least there's like a
hypothetical if I'm coming out of a DC with Jax that I have
like a 90 percent, 80% closer share on a team.
There's no real scenario with that as of today for Suarez.
Right. Yeah.
I think ideally like what you'resaying, you'd probably see him

(20:44):
like 350 on where you kind of start to see the Estrada types,
you know, speculated on like somewhere in that range where I
where I actually don't think he'll fall through, you know,
no. That's the thing, just one of
those guys. If the main event were happening
today, I think Suarez gets takenin a lot of a main events late,
super late, but gets picked and I don't know that's right at

(21:06):
all. Like I think that our old friend
Jeff Zimmerman like writes a lotabout this.
You want to you want to find thehigh skill relief pitchers like
there's nothing wrong on a main event like in a fab leak having
a 15 team fab leak, having a high skilled arm to use when you
don't have starters you like butyou want them for free.
You don't want to use a pick on them.

(21:27):
Yeah, 100%. Edwin Diaz goes to the Dodgers
also, and this is pretty anotherdagger to the Mets heart.
But this completely just takes Tanner Scott off the draft list
for the most part. I think right until maybe.
I think it takes, I think it takes every single Dodgers
reliever. I think it's, it's just stops.

(21:50):
Just stop. Stop taking every Dodgers
reliever who's not named Diaz inyour DC's.
Like it's just don't do it. Don't do it.
Yeah, 100 percent, 100%. Because even even if Diaz
happened to get hurt or something, right, you know, he,
they they will still follow the,you know, committee approach if

(22:11):
it if it's not him. So you're just not going to pick
the right guy to back him up. You would think it'd be Tanner
Scott, but it could be Vestia tuge have been in it.
That's just the whole mess. And I I would think this kind of
firmly cement Diaz as top five believer, right?
Oh, I think, I think, I think if, if, if Mason Miller is off

(22:32):
the board, he's my next guy. I I think I would take pretty,
pretty comfortably. Yeah, I wouldn't think, I
wouldn't think twice about it. I pick in second in my current
DC. It came back to me in a second
round. I took Mason Miller ahead of
Diaz and then fellow meatball Leonard Ringle took Diaz right
after. But I was considering double S
happening. Double what do?

(22:55):
We What do we? It's not pocket aces because
that means the two starters, what do we call going double
elite closers? I get double ace closer, pocket
is closer. Yeah, double jokers.
I don't know what what they waitwe call it.
But I ended up getting Devin Williams in the fifth round.
Yeah, that's that's, that's pretty good.

(23:16):
I don't think, you know, I as much as I do think Diaz is the
number 2 after Miller. I don't really see that much of
a difference in two rounds for the two guys, so I'll take that.
I agree when when I like I, I answered the Diaz is my number,
my the RP 2 pretty quickly and confidently.
If you wanted to argue that someof those other guys are just

(23:37):
ahead of Edwin Diaz and start nitpicking on Edwin Diaz, I'm
I'm not going to I'm not going to yell at you like yeah,
there's but but I think Mason Miller, as long as you believe
in health. And if so, unless you want to
make a health argument for Miller, which you can,
obviously, given his history, I think he's clearly the number
one guy. There's six or seven guys you

(23:58):
can argue and throw them in a hat and pick them out.
I think Diaz is as good or and as reliable as any of them.
Yeah, Mason Miller is, I think he just entered that mid second
possibility, you know, or if you're feeling spicy, maybe even
the beginning of the second round.
It's just that good. Just gives you elite ratios,

(24:20):
100K's and most likely, you know, minimum.
You know what I'd I'd be. Curious of, and I guess if, if
this was a week that Phil was here, he could give us this
answer in in 13 1/2 minutes or 13 1/2 seconds probably.
He's probably automated a whole system that can answer this
question instantly. I'd be curious statistically
because it's not like this is a new approach taking like 2 of

(24:41):
the top five, call it closers byADP.
I'd want I'd be curious to see some actual data What percentage
of time for DC teams that do that money cash each year?
Like is it? I think on spreadsheet it works
really well. It means you don't have to waste
as many pics on late closers. If you hit on them and you

(25:03):
haven't used the pics. It means you have a longer bench
than everybody. I think that is part of the
argument for DC. I'd be curious if it's a plus EV
move or if it's not and I cuz I could see the counter argument
too that it's not a positive EV move. 100% I, I battled myself
too, and I try to take two of the top ones like I just did in

(25:24):
this current draft. And there was a lot of I had
about four or five teams last year where I had three in the
top 200 picks. And like Kenley Jansen with my
RP3 on those team. And I just didn't have to waste
three or four extra spots at, atthe back end of DCS where you
have to speculate and it's like I have my three guys and that's
it. That's what I'm rolling into
with. So if somebody has somebody has
fair spare time over the holidayseason and they want to write up

(25:47):
something that's interesting, pull every team that's done that
over the last year, 2 years, three years, whatever you want
to do so you have a big enough sample and see where their
average finish was compared to an average team.
I think that'll be interesting for a ton of people to read.
Absolutely. You mentioned Kyle Finnegan back
to Detroit. 2 Years 19,000,000. Not Flanagan.
You don't want to draft Kyle Flanagan.

(26:07):
He's not gonna have a Goodyear. Sorry.
Go ahead. Not Flanagan.
Over the last two months of the season, he had four saves.
Vest had 7 even if you wanted toextrapolate that you know, times
3 and say it's like a 20 and 1020 and 15 kind of thing.
But like you said, Finnegan is clear opportunity to get at
least 50% of this year was really good once they flipped

(26:29):
his, his pitch usage down the stretch and his his price is
already kind of gone up. And and and and this is
interesting because this is likeall like in draft contextual,
But the guy who picked Suarez inmy draft, in my current draft
pick, Finnegan at 1:45 because he had lost, you know, a closer.
So he he probably jumped it up more than you'd see it on, you

(26:52):
know, on the aggregate. But he's definitely going to fly
up from the 260. I thought like him invest
invested like 170. I think they'll probably meet in
the 200 like right in that range.
And and you'll just pick one or the other.
Yeah, I mean the other option Rob is picking neither of them
and I think that's probably the best option because it's going

(27:14):
to be it's going to be annoying whichever 1 you have.
So like if you already have one of them on your DCI think
they're both good pitchers, I think they're both going to put
up stats. The reality is both of them like
just the the Tigers are good, but they're not that good.
So there's also a lot of wins that they can get vultured.
So if you told me both of them get like, you know, seven wins

(27:36):
and 12 to 18 type saves, be like, those are both pretty good
pitchers, but especially for fableagues, it's like, which weeks
do you want to use them? Like it's just annoying.
And I think especially if you pick either of them going
forward, you have forfeited the right to bitch and complain
about the other guy every time he comes in.

(27:57):
Like it's just it's it's it's too much and I will lose my shit
on people who it's like, I I can't believe vest doesn't get
or or either of them. It doesn't matter which one.
It's like you know what you're paying for right now, which is a
pain in your ass and frustrationwith a possibility that one of
them gets gets the job and runs.Yeah, 100% I think it's going to

(28:20):
be very annoying. I I don't, you know, I don't
foresee again, maybe maybe this is one of my targets if I do
want to do that RP3, you know, early kind of move and you just
supplement let's just say minimum 12 saves and hopefully
you are the two guys get you like to the 80th percentile.
So they're not going to be anchors, but there will be

(28:42):
contributors for sure, you know,especially.
In yeah, but there's a different.
I think there's a different. I think the RP three thing is a
good thing, but I'd way rather have two months of full time
closer who loses his job as opposed to six months of two
saves a month kind of thing. Because at least if I have AI,

(29:04):
don't know if I figure out who Texas's closer is going to be.
But it turns out Texas's closer can only hold the closer's job
for two months. But in those two months, I got
10 saves. Then the next four months I get
to use somebody else, presumablya starting pitcher, because I've
fallen a little bit behind in strikeouts during those two
months when I used crappy Texas closures as a third closer.

(29:27):
Whereas with either of these Detroit guys, if you want the 12
saves, you have to use them 26 weeks and know that there are
lots of weeks you're getting sweet fuck all from them.
I think we need to see Phil's next year's Luke Jackson right
now. Right now, get him on, get him
on the phone, Rob, get him. Actually, we'll have a special
Christmas episode where we'll find out who's next year, the

(29:48):
Luke Jackson. Merry Christmas.
Phil will come down from the North Pole in in rural Quebec
and not rural Quebec. He's an urban Quebec.
But he'll, he'll give us who Luke Jackson is.
A special Christmas present to all the to all the Discord
subscribers. Absolutely, Rob Vaughn Grissom
has been freed. One of your guys.

(30:08):
Well, I, I had to bring him up. I know he's not one of the top
recent news acquisitions, but been traded to the Angels, which
you know, have a lot of opportunity there for him to
play. So what's your outlook on Vaughn
Grissom right now? How you feel about?
I know you took him like in round 49, which is. 4049 in my
CLQDC. What I'll say what I'll say

(30:28):
Yeah. I'm, I'm I, I don't know if I
was the first one to do a CLQDC this year, but I have to be 1 of
the one of the 1st 10. It's better than doing the day
before the season started. Which I did last year, No, last
year, the morning of, the morning of doing all three, all
three drafts on opening morning.What I'll say about Von Grissom

(30:50):
is like, anyways, he was the 49th rounds.
I, it's not that there were no guys.
It's in the 49th round. You're a, you're looking over
your roster. It's like, where do I still see
some vulnerabilities? And like where if I could find a
middle infielder that could be useful here.
And then it's like, which of these, like by by definition,

(31:12):
they've made it through like 700picks.
So by definition, they're not that good or they would have
gone in the first, let's call it680 picks.
And Vaughn Grissom at least was a good a well enough regarded
prospect at some point that somebody thought I'll trade you
Chris Sale for this guy and he'sout of options.

(31:34):
So they're going to lose him. And I they traded the Angels
being they traded a good enough prospect.
Like I don't know a lot about the prospect they traded to
Boston for Vaughn Grissom, but Ithink he was like the 24th, 25th
prospect in their system or something like a low, a low
level prospect, but still somebody.

(31:54):
You don't trade up a rated prospect for a guy with no
options if you don't see a plausible path towards a roster
spot. And the Angels are crappy enough
that if Von Grissom gets a roster spot that I think he'll
get a good one. 5200 plate appearance run to see if he can

(32:15):
do anything before they move on from him.
So I would not. If he's now going in the 30th
round, I think that's stupid. I don't think he's very good but
if he's going in the 45th round then I still think he's an
interesting player. Yeah, last three drafts using
Ryan Bloomfield's awesome ADP tracker you can find on their
Patreon, Bubba and the Bloom, 489-440-4482.

(32:37):
So now kind of moves them in like the area of Nick Gonzalez,
Zach Geloff, Katie Schmidt, there's.
Just a lot, No, there's So they're both too many because
where, where is what's his name?Seattle's stud 19 year old
shortstop, who's might be their opening third baseman host it.
Colt Emerson. Yeah, Colt Emerson.

(32:58):
Where's Colt Emerson going? He is going pick 4/21.
So that's the thing. So so like there are both Colt
Emerson like prospects who are like lottery tickets.
But if Colt Emerson actually got506 hundred plate appearances,
like he's a good player and there are guys who have shown

(33:19):
there's a really good chance they will survive the six month
grind. So in the DC world, it's like I
need a guy who's just going to be there.
So I don't know that Grissom is either of those things.
He's neither a top prospect likeHolt, Emerson or some of the
other like kids who goes, who still go around there, who have
middle infield eligibility and could get a corner infield

(33:42):
eligibility. Nor is he likely to just grind
out 400 plate appearances but beon the roster all year.
So I don't know that he's a great pick there.
Vaughn Grissom. Yeah, I kind of agree with that.
I think that's a little too richfor for my liking there.
One last move, let's talk about either Mike Yads or Wayne
Thomas. Do you have any interest in

(34:04):
their signings with it? Lane Thomas?
So I, I think I was joking last night, but Lane Thomas if if
Wayne, if I told you Rob that Wayne Thomas gets 100 like a he
is their center fielder. And unless, unless something has
changed, I didn't look at his stat cast data from last year.
He's a credible center fielder. Like he's not just a we have

(34:26):
nobody else center fielder. I think he can play a credible
center field. If he was their center fielder
and got let's say 500 and 75600 played appearances, it's not
that crazy that he goes like 1818 to 30 again, kind of thing.

(34:46):
Like in DC. He's a guy who should go up a
lot. Like he's, he's he's he really
could end up as a top 200 playerthis year without it being crazy
at all. That's that doesn't sound too
crazy at all. Like we, we forget with some of
us forget. I forget how recently, like Lane

(35:07):
Thomas was a guy a lot of you like you.
I, I correct me if I'm wrong, Rob was really excited about
like you would go into drafts 3 years ago and then two years ago
and Lane Thomas was a guy you wanted coming out of the draft.
Totally agree. Yeah he was.
He was always in a great spot ofADP to capture some stone bases.
Got a good pull lift profile to get them into his power and a

(35:31):
shit ton of bags. So so I think low key, that's
like potentially a really interesting signing.
My only concern is Kansas City really does seem to be stacking
just a lot of interchangeable like piece of shit outfielders.
And in real baseball terms, LaneThomas is a guy who any team

(35:52):
could have had free down the stretch.
Like he literally was. I don't know if he was like
checking people in at the local Walmart, but it like like I if
you had told me Lane Thomas is actually out of baseball, I
would have nodded along and said, oh, OK, Lane Thomas is out
of baseball. That sucks that that came out
fast. I hope he's I hope he has a nice
retirement. So like, I don't, I don't know

(36:14):
that I'd bet a lot on it, but inthe DCI think he's a really
interesting dart. Yeah, he's already flown up to
31038. 310 are you fucking drunk?
And that's not a. Gladiator either.
That's not a gladiator, so. There's weird habit in DC's I've
noticed because I never did DC'sthis early before that Whenever

(36:38):
there is a piece of news, it's like there's a rule somebody has
to take that player within 5 picks because it's like, oh,
this is like cheating. This is why you do the early
DC's. Everybody else is going to
regret it. It's like you're in the 20th
round, there are a lot of reallygood players still available in
the 20th round and oh this. We got to react to this Lane

(36:58):
Thomas news right now before anybody else hears about it.
I have something secret and happened to be on the clock when
the Lane Thomas signs. I better pounce before these
other idiots catch up on the news.
It's like you do not actually have to take a guy just cuz he's
in the news right now wherever you are in the draft.
Yeah, there is that like, Oh my God, I have this opportunity,

(37:20):
yeah, to to be the first one whomakes it's.
Almost like cheating. I'm almost cheating here right
right now. It's almost like I figured out
how to do an oopsie with my fab.Like you just have to ask and
they'll they'll unwind any of your trends.
It's like that and it's like, but it's not really Lane Thomas
and I pick 300. I mean, Lane Thomas couldn't.

(37:40):
If Lane Thomas could end up as a20th round pick by March if we
actually knew that he was like everyday center fielder.
But right now, that's not that. I don't think that's right.
Yeah, I, I, I don't, I don't think it is either.
That's a little too high for my liking, but I do get the
excitement to take him there. Kyle Lisbell, though, is a

(38:02):
really good defensive center fielder.
He's got up like 3-10, you know,10 out above average in the last
three years. And that's I think keeps him at
least for the most part strong side in center field because of
his value there. So, but either way, it's just
going to it's just going to be like in the next couple of days

(38:23):
or in the next month, they add, you know, some more fringy type
outfielders like they bring backAdam Frazier or they they add
another guy that you're like, Ohmy God, how did this going to
affect Lane Thomas, Which is kind of in the cards for them
because I think they're outfieldstill needs help.
Oh yeah, and they are one. They are one of the only teams
that could trade a pitcher like I think this.

(38:44):
The notion of them trading Cole Reagan's seems stupid unless
they think he's just can't stay healthy.
But they they have depth guys ina world where like guys who can
just throw 180 league average innings have a lot of value and
they are somebody who has those guys.
And I think you can get when your outfield is as bad as

(39:06):
Kansas City's outfield is, it's not that hard to improve on it.
That's the great thing is like they're they're bad enough that
you that Michael Walker might beable to get you a really good
outfielder to Kansas City. 100% or or like even a Brendan
Donovan to the place that right now field again kind of can
block them in in some sense. One last piece of news and this

(39:28):
one I had to throw in there, Rob, because we have our first
health update or not even healthupdate, but cow men's autos.
They had 14 lbs of muscle since the end of the season.
So you're a cross check guy, Rob, you're into this stuff.
How, how, what do you feel abouta 60 day, 14 LB, you know,

(39:51):
switch that. That seems a lot.
The thing The thing is Rob with with bulks or cuts, you can't
there's no such thing as adding 14 lbs of muscle.
If you add 14 lbs of muscle, almost every human being in the
world has also added 25 lbs of fat with 14 lbs of muscles.
So like if you can do like a DEXA scan and find out like

(40:14):
actually like this is how much muscle you have on your body,
but. But yeah, so if he actually
added 14 lbs of muscles, then headded £40 total to his body.
My guess is he's, he's just hitting the weights and he's
eating lots of Mama, mama's cooking and in good shape.

(40:36):
Was, was, was his thing before this offseason that he was too
weak? Like I, I, I read a lot of his
scouting reports. I didn't hear a lot of scouts
say like, if only he could get stronger, maybe one day like the
Chandler Simpson. Like boy if he suddenly was 220
lbs he'd have some power. I never heard that about

(40:56):
Manzardo. I never heard about it either.
The the quote was that they wanted him to work on getting
through the season, you know, better.
But I mean, his his second-half was pretty much the same as the
first half. He actually had a better batting
average and still provided a bunch of power.
So I don't I don't really see anything to that.
But I don't know, maybe they wanted to to increase his

(41:19):
IS13111 Max EV. But there's ways, you know, bat
speed, man, Bat speed. Bat speed gets gets gets a
driveline or sign with Washington because that's where
they all work now or Tampa wherethey are.
They all work everywhere now. It's amazing they are.
You get upset when I say that I'm all happy for them is it's
just a lot of people who used towork at Driveline in Major
League Baseball organizations. 100% it's, it's, it's really

(41:42):
been quite a takeover for sure. All right, we're going to get in
some ADP. Let's lead off with Jacob Marcy
of the Marlins. He's in about the 1:40-ish range
right now of ADP, depending on what, what format you're getting
into, as early as 124 in these last nine DCS.

(42:03):
What's your take on Mr. Marcy? I'm surprised he's not going a
lot higher. It's like his he he has the
ability to like just run away from an SGP perspective with
categories for you. And I think he's batting lead
off. There's never mind.

(42:24):
Is there no platoon split issues?
Like he has a weird reverse platoon split last year.
So let's just let's push that aside because that's probably
just noise. But if he's going to play every
day his last two years in the miners, he's he's what, 97 total
stolen bases with 26 home runs and the powers not I don't think

(42:49):
he's going to hit thirty home runs, but I think he's a legit
15 home run, 35 to 40 stolen base guys given and I I haven't
dug that deep into him. So I would have thought, given
his strikeout rate being really decent, that his batting average
should be higher given his speedand that his walk rate is good.

(43:10):
So like the steamer, as in for a232 batting average, he hit 292
with a high Babbitt, a 357 Babbitt last year.
If you split the difference, even call it 250 batting
average. I don't know, 153250 in the
tenth round seems like a really good deal to me.

(43:31):
So Rob, what am I missing? Why the why are people not hire
on Marcy other than the fact that he's done it in 250 innings
or innings played appearances inthe majors?
I, I, I guess it's limited sample.
I don't know if teams or, or or players looking at possible, you
know, reason that he wouldn't play every single day.

(43:53):
I mean, he hit really good versus lefties in that small
sample, 81 played appearances, he batted 3/24 with a 153 WRC
plus. So I don't I don't see that
happening soon. Lineup position, like you
mentioned, he didn't get to the top top so often 7 lead off
opportunities, but he's in that first, first, second, third part
of the lineup most of the time. Yeah, I don't know, I maybe

(44:16):
maybe everyone's really hinging on the projected batting average
for him where he's had some seasons in the minors where he
wasn't so great, but he also hadsome seasons where it was a
solid batting average. And like I think with the K
rate, with the league average, Seger a good approach, right?
Doesn't chase. He makes good contact in his
own. It's hard for me to see him
being a protected 230 hitter. So I yeah, I I kind of agree

(44:41):
with you. I'm surprised just given how he
ended the season, he hasn't continued to have more of a
helium type carry over into these drafts.
So I think Marty should be a really big target here if you've
missed out on some speed and andyou want to attack it.
Yeah, and the only, the only thing I can figure is he wasn't

(45:03):
a highly regarded prospect. And I look at his Van Grass
prospect report and it says purely from an eyeball scouting
standpoint, Marcy looks like he'll peak as a fourth
outfielder. His statistical case is much
stronger than that. And I'm like, yeah, we play a
fucking statistical game, so I'll take the stats.
Yep, yeah, 100% and he I mean hehe just had a really elite

(45:24):
ability to square up and sweet spot percentage EV90 was one O
4/6, which is really strong and he and and he can lift it.
So I like I like Marcy here pretty pretty solid target all
around. Let's hit Daniel Palencia of the
Cubs. He's going in the same area and
I think he's, you know, got to start off at least with the the

(45:47):
chance to be the the closer. Are you worried about either his
skills or them bringing in another guy?
This I mean, they did already with Maiton.
I don't know if they bring another guy in, but what's your
thoughts on Pluncia? Yeah, I mean, it's one of those
things if you just, if you were in a coma all winter and you
looked at last year and you looked at the roster right now,

(46:08):
you'd say this is a really nice value here because he's going
later than most of the closers and he should be able to run
with this. The thing that gives me pause is
all the reports that the Cubs wanted to bring in another
closer to supplant him. And they're A-Team, unlike the

(46:31):
Dodgers. The Dodgers, you could say,
well, there's only so many ways to improve this team.
Signing Diaz is one of the ways Dodgers sign them.
Cubs obviously have some more holes, especially if Tucker's is
gone for them. So them focusing on a high
leverage relief pitcher does raise some red flags.

(46:51):
And because I I do believe when teams tell you what they think
of guys, you should believe themthe same time as they haven't
got that guy. So I think he's a pretty nice
like risk reward RP2 where he's going right now where even if
you don't think that he can be the capital M man and hold the

(47:13):
job year, I think if he just replicates what he did last year
at this cost, I think that's pretty good.
I think so too. I he's really dominant in the
zone, gets whipped in the zone, does those strikes and just
performed really admirable. He had that shoulder issue, but
came back and had his highest velocity month in September, you

(47:34):
know, so I guess it was feeling good for him and overall, like
you said, 21% K miners walk to end the season at a three O 6S.
He's kind of in no man's land here with some of the RPS.
You know, the he's just like in this spot pretty much as
everyone's like all right, well,I guess Palencia is here and
I'll take him that that's at least what it seems like.

(47:55):
But he in essence right now I think should be a little bit
higher if if you're chasing saves.
But I think you'll see a guy like, you know, Abner Uribe was
given the news of McGill and everything probably search past
him. He already kind of is with these
recent news of McGill might be an on the move.
And I think I probably prefer Uribe at this point.

(48:17):
But maybe that's just me not really acknowledging Palencia's
skills that he performed last year.
So. Oh, I mean, I, I, I not to, not
to disagree with somebody on a podcast, Rob, if I'm drafting
today, I need the guy who has a full time job as opposed to a
guy who I think might get a fulltime job.
So I think Valencia is still easier.

(48:38):
Obviously, if McGill does get moved, that changes things.
But like until that happens, I think it's pretty easy for me to
keep keep going Valencia. 100% the one The one thing with
Valencia, I think a little bit of a bugaboo is like a 13% K
modest walk first left these with a 4th 3X50.
That's probably the only, you know, caution for concern and

(49:00):
mate, Tom can handle lefty. So it'll be a little bit of a
little bit there a little bit used to there.
What about Adley Ruchman Rob, Wegot him up next to talk about I
I'm out on Adley this year. I talked about it with Dusty
last night on the catcher pod, but.
So, so it's it's what's interesting about there's AI

(49:21):
mean there's a lot of interesting things about
Ruchman, but what's interesting to me is how close him and
Basalo now are going in ADP. Basalo's basically going at the
exact same cost as him. And I'd rather Basalo straight
up over Ruchman. And it's not, it's not a hard
choice for me. The thing about Adli Ruchman,

(49:42):
Adli Ruchman is obviously, you know, an elite to elite prospect
and a very good catcher. So, and if, if you're playing in
fantasy league that has pitch framing and catching as one of
your categories, then by all means you should bump up Ruchman
way over Basalo. I don't play in those leagues
and I, I, I acknowledge that Rushman's best season may still

(50:10):
be ahead of him, but it's like he needs almost 700 plate
appearances to get to 20 home runs.
And I don't know that he's ever getting 700 plate appearances
again or 680 or whatever it was.But like, if that's peak Adly
Ruchman offensively and last year, like last year was a weird

(50:34):
year for him. I just don't know that like 580
plate appearances and sixteen home runs from Adly Ruchman is
worth anything close to this. And I think Basalo as James
Anderson says, his ceiling like today is 30 home runs.
I don't know that Adley Ruchman has that in him.

(50:55):
Like there's nothing that we have seen from Adley Ruchman to
say other other than literally his name that says that's who
Adley Ruchman is. So I, I, I don't, I don't think
he should be owning anywhere near here.
I still think he they might trade him for the for their for
one of the pitchers. I know they say he will be their
starting catcher and I understand why.

(51:16):
You don't sell low on a guy likeAdly Ruchman and they would be
selling low on Adly Ruchman if Baltimore were to trade him.
But he is a much better like a lot of these Baltimore players.
He is a much better real life baseball player than he is
fantasy player. Like that is a theme with
Baltimore players. Yeah, I, I just can't get over
the fact and but I made this mistake last year with like Beau

(51:39):
Bichette. When I looked at his, his, his,
his last 646 plate appearances, Adly ruckman batting 2O9 with 13
home runs and a 626 OPS and a 5%Bowery.
That just doesn't excite me. And can we get back to the
levels we showed before? Of course, like you said, if he
gets full Max volume, he could definitely get to the 20 home
runs. But I just I'm just a little

(52:01):
concerned about the overall skill slippage and I don't
really see a any reason to get him when you can wait a little
bit and get Moreno or Francisco Alvarez or someone like that.
And totally agree with you. I'd rather have Pasalo straight
up. I think it's an easy upside
decision there for for catcher. How about you Rasmussen of the

(52:24):
Tampa Bay Rays? He's, it's interesting.
I feel like Rasmussen always hadgreat love within a community.
I think his ADP kind of reflectsthat.
But for a guy who like offers somuch ratio protection, is the
worry that his workload last year won't get him there again?
Is there too much concern for you there or do you think he

(52:47):
could just? Yeah, he's fine.
He ended the season healthy. He looked good.
He was monitored a little bit. Yeah, I, I, I do you.
Do you think he has a season better than last year?
Is last year his best year? It very well could be, you know,
I, I think that the like the swinging strike rate took a big

(53:09):
plummet for, from his previous, not not big, but you know,
enough to really worry about if the strikeouts will get back to
like a 2625 ish percent level versus last year's 21%.
He lost a little bit of effectiveness in the zone.

(53:31):
I don't know, it's just one of those pictures that seems OK to
plug in, but I don't know, I've,I had more concerns about him
there this year than in the pastwhen last year he kind of, you
know, squashed any concerns I had of him not being able to get
some volume. Yeah, I'm I'm fine with him.

(53:53):
I think though, the one thing, and I think we we said this with
Phil or somebody else, like everybody knows they're going
back to their old park. Just know like Steamer knows
that too. So don't like don't triple count
it because you say, well, you know, like I see what the
projection is, I see what he didlast year, but I need to also

(54:15):
adjust it for the new park so itcan be something awesome.
It's like, I think Rasmussen like you, you, you, you, you,
you, you say you're always so Horn That's what the the term
the kids are using, right? Rob Horn Am I pronouncing that
right? Yes.
You are. Horn for the strikeouts.

(54:38):
You, you, you're willing to, to,to make an exception for, for
like Rasmussen, because you buy that he's like an elite whip guy
and an elite ERA guy. I think so he he he's shown that
ability. I mean his career as a starter,
he's he's just got some really elite.
You know, it's 20/22. He had a 284 yard array, one O 4

(55:01):
whip last year, 276 and one O 2.So he's displayed that ability
and like you said, the park. I'm I guess I'm just can he
replicate the 1:50? I don't think he's going above
it. Steamer had them for 171.
I really don't believe that, butyou know, so that's the concern
for me is the volume and can he sustain.

(55:22):
He he's he's he's kind of alwaysgot injured after big workload
season. So that's that's.
A little bit. I, I I wouldn't be surprised if
if he's more the Sierra pitcher,the three nine pitcher from last
year, which is what steamer seeshim, the elite guy.
And I think that there's there'sone of his outcomes is the

(55:44):
volume is still there. He's just way more mediocre and
when that and when you combine that with the below average
strikeout rates, then he's not avery good pick here.
So I think there's a lot of waysthis pick actually could go
badly. Yeah, I, I, I, I agree there,
Luis Castillo. Yeah, I want to talk about Luis

(56:05):
Castillo. Can I ask something provocative
about Luis Castillo? So, so there are some players,
some hitters we draft in fantasythat for better or for worse,
when you draft them, you know there are going to be some
weekends where you can't really use them because they sit or
they suck against left-handed pitchers.

(56:25):
So you're like, look, over the course of the season, I think
this is a good pick. But I know that like forgetting
DC is like in a fab league, there's a bit of a pain in the
ass factor because I really can't use them or I shouldn't
use them. Then there's like Rockies
hitters, it's like they're awesome at home.
But I know when they go on the road, like most of them, I

(56:47):
really should have on the bench.But that becomes a pain in the
ass because sometimes I just have no choice.
I have to play this, I have to play Tovar on the road and it's
just, it's what it is. I know that he's not the same
guy, but it's it's a six month season and I believe that Tovar
is going to give me 6 months of good production.
Should we be starting Luis Castillo on the road?

(57:11):
Yeah, I mean the numbers say no.So what I don't know is so like
the last two years, the right answer is and assume that you
had the roster to do this. Every time Luis Castillo is
pitching at home, you start him by rule and every time Luis
Castillo is on the road you pitch middle reliever.
You would have ended up almost certainly and assume you had a

(57:33):
good high skill middle reliever,never mind a like a 9th starting
pitcher on your bench you could stream in.
So I'm gonna like take an extreme example.
You would have ended up better the last two full seasons.
And it's it's it's not a small sample size at this point.
Like it's a big set of innings. What I don't know is, and to be
fair, Luis Castillo, his whole career, other than like what 2

(57:55):
years has been like this. Before he was in Seattle, he was
like this. So what I don't know is if I
would have the balls if I draft Luis Castillo, to actually think
this is predictive and I'm goingto do it.
And I've never heard anybody actually say, yeah, no, I draft
Luis Castillo, but I only use them at home.

(58:17):
That doesn't mean there aren't NFB really sharp NFBC guys who
do this. But, and I don't know if this is
predictive. So like what?
I bet my life that that Luis Castillo doesn't like that this
is just random noise. Like me.
He just has flipped tails seven of the last nine years and like,
it's a it's a wild divergent between his home and road

(58:40):
numbers. It's possible and I can accept
that. But like, we it's weird that we
don't even talk about how like, you really should not be
starting Luis Castillo on the road until you know otherwise.
Yeah, last three seasons on the road from 2023362RA5425 and then
471 and came out its walk has has gone from 16 1/2 down to 13%

(59:05):
with X FIPS pretty much around 445 and also to last year really
didn't handle lefties that well either.
Yeah to to the tune of a 9% K minus walk in a 49X FIP.
So there there are question marks.
Despite that, though, he he a. 100%.

(59:27):
Yeah, right. That's the thing, and.
What The thing is, you can take what I just said.
So accept that as a faculty, there's a 4-5 ERA if you combine
the last two years on the road and his, his, his, his ERA on
the at home is very good. All his numbers at home are
excellent and you can work it both ways.
Rob is on the one hand you can say well geez, like, but he's

(59:49):
like that's not who I want to take in the 10th round as my
SP3. You could also say geez, this is
a totally untapped opportunity here where I can actually get
more value out of Luis Castillo if I start just taking his home
starts and can figure out a way or at least like get him out for
2/3 of his Rd. starts like anybody top half of the league

(01:00:12):
on the road. I'm going to sit him like you
may unlock more value by him. So I'm I, I just think it's
interesting that we don't like, I don't listen to all the
podcasts. I don't read all the stuff.
I don't hear people talking about how bad Luis Castillo has
been on the road. And I think he's the, I think
the numbers are are big enough number of innings that at least

(01:00:33):
it is worthy of conversation as much as any of the Rockies
hitters or anything else. Yep.
Yeah, No, I I think that's a very good point.
And like you said, maybe, maybe doesn't have to be all the vote
starts, but maybe he goes to Sacramento and you're like, Matt
not gonna do it. He goes to Houston.
You're like Matt, not gonna do it.
And, and, and you can start to, you know, try to play with those

(01:00:54):
numbers a little bit still though year end, you know, 354
ERA and a 118 WHIP is totally it'll, it'll still play.
And and that, and that is a fineanswer is it's six month long
season. Luis Castillo.
It has a long enough track record that I'm going to set him
and forget him and fuck you, Rob, like read some
sabermetrics. This is not predictive shit.

(01:01:14):
He's he's like, that's the you're you're buying into voodoo
crap here and you're smarter than that.
That's also a reasonable answer,and I my only response is I'm
not really that much smarter than that so like could move on.
Let's keep it on the pitching and let's go to Sandy Alcantara
finish the season really strong.And I think that might be kind

(01:01:36):
of another thing that's hasn't been mentioned much that I've
heard is how much better he got over the course of the season.
I don't think he's returning to the the stud Sandy Alcantara,
but I also think he's better than his rejection right now.
So I think that I, I totally agree.
I don't under I, I, I, I was never a Sandy Alcantara guy.

(01:02:00):
I always, I always, I always. And it wasn't just like the
average to below average strikeout rates.
It's he needs so much volume forhim to be able to compile.
He's like a shittier Logan Webb.And I I, Logan Webb I actually
think is a really good picture. I, I was never convinced that
Sandy Alcantara was that that good.

(01:02:22):
He like had pitch ninja type stuff that didn't translate, but
he threw a shit ton of volume and he had a couple of years
where voodoo magic kind of came together.
But that so that was when he waslike a first round pick, a
second round pick, like when he had to spend such a premium pick
to get him. It's like he's on his second

(01:02:43):
year after the surgery and he was excellent in the
second-half. And it's like the market just
refuses to accept both of those facts.
So I I agree, like I don't I don't think that he's going back
to like 202223 ERA Sandy Alcontera.

(01:03:06):
But if he if he goes to 2021, Sandy Alcontera, like a three 2
ERA, which was effectively who he was in the second-half of
last year, like below average strikeout rate, but not
horrendous and like a three two to three 5 ERA.
A really nice WHIP who's going to support your WHIP as long as
you have enough strikeouts from your first two starting

(01:03:28):
pitchers. Like he's I, I think I think
Sandy Alcantara, like I would take him over Luis Castillo like
you Savage goes like 10 picks ahead of these guys.
Assume both of them are on the board, then it's a really build
dependent in terms of how much risk, how much upside, how much

(01:03:48):
strikeout versus whip I need based on who I've already
drafted. But I think Sandy Alcantara
should be going 2 rounds earlierthan this.
I think the reality is if they end up trading him, he will
shoot up to three rounds. So I don't know if there's a
Miami discount if he's suddenly on Baltimore.
If they do like a Mayo for Alcantara trade, I know that's

(01:04:11):
not what people think the trade will be in terms of the might,
which pitcher Miami is likely togive up.
I think he showed enough in the second-half where if Miami had
traded him a year ago, they'd beselling really low.
I think there's enough teams that like saw.
I mean, I think, I think all teams saw what he did last year.
I think his value is recaptured.So I, I, I actually think they'd

(01:04:34):
get a really nice return for Sandy Alcantara if they trade
him. So if that could move his ADP
very quickly if he's on a betterteam.
Whether it's or. Shouldn't.
But if you told me he's on the Marlins the whole season, I
still really like him at this cost.
Yeah, absolutely too. I think the Marlins and Orioles
to just merge teams and to do and they always have a match for

(01:04:54):
trades. But yeah, last 10 starts, 17
1/2% came on its walk and the ball percentage was 30.4% after
his first 21 starts at 36%. And I think that's kind of
undersold. The fact that he went out and
made 31 starts, you know, 100%, yes, that's that's really,
really good. So again.
I mean, he was, he was struggling in the first half.
Oh yeah, terrible. Oh yeah, 17 1/2 came on its walk

(01:05:17):
over as last 10 start, which is right in that 2021 range that
you mentioned. So I, I I think that's still a
good, a good amount to like herefor Sandy, Ozzy, Alby's Rob.
Yeah, have you, have you recovered from?
The PSP on a Ozzy Alby's I have.Not, not to.

(01:05:38):
Not to play Internet doctor. I'm entirely out on Alby's
because of the injury. I think I thought there was
going to be a much bigger if he if he doesn't get hurt at the
end of the season with the exactsame injury he had as
previously, as I understand it, then I think that this is
probably the right range for himto be going tenth round ish

(01:06:01):
based on how his struggles last year.
But you know, young and talentedwhen you combine the struggles
and I don't give me like but yeah, but you know, this
three-week period he was better.He had a really bad year last
year in totality, but when you combine the injury with that,
there are just so many other middle infielders I'd still

(01:06:22):
rather that go now and later than Alby's that I just don't
know. The juice is even close to
worthless. Squeeze on him.
I totally agree. I think he's just an accumulator
that just not very sexy. Everything is going in the wrong
direction, especially the quality of contact and that
link, you know, that every year he's had a an issue or a

(01:06:44):
procedure with his hand, he's come back to at least struggle
to start the season. And I'm just I mean, you can get
this line and Marcus Simeon 100 picks later.
So can, you know, just just justwait if you like a 15 and 15
kind of guy. But yeah, not interested in Ozzy
Alby's. You want to do one more?
Sure. Bubba Chandler.

(01:07:07):
You go first time Bubba. I I mean, I think I'm a little
surprised. I guess I'm a little surprised
he's not being mentioned with all these other hype second year
guys. Could you hear a lot about your
Savage McClain? Rightfully so, you know, from

(01:07:29):
what how they ended the season. But Bubba Chandler ended the
season really fucking good too. And I think you just saw the,
the pure stuff that he was able to show, you know, and came up
into the majors and he looked really good, man.
He ended up with a 22% came on his walk over his seven games, K
per inning. And I think that's just starting
to to scratch the surface of of what he's capable of.

(01:07:52):
Yeah, I mean, the only that I think that people, people feel
burned because a lot of people held him all year last year,
waiting and waiting and waiting.The Pirates do have a lot of
starting pitching depth. They're like 6th through 9th.
Starting pitchers are arguably the best 6th like knots

(01:08:15):
currently in the rotation. Pitcher starting pitchers in
baseball, especially once Jones gets healthy like they have,
they have death, but I think they have no lineup.
So I think they're going to dealwith some of that death.
And it's it's a weird scenario. If Bubba's not in the rotation
for them in the majors on Opening Day, there's no

(01:08:36):
incentive for them to to hold them down.
Like it's just stupid. Yeah.
So I, I, I. I'd rather McClain you savage
than him but that doesn't. That's not an anti Bubba
comment. Yeah, no, I yeah, that's more
toward tilted to what you've seen from the other guys and you

(01:08:57):
feel better about it. It's just there's there's a
elite fastball here. His his his own missed
percentage is 24% and the leagueaverages 17 compared to Sandy
Alcatar who's 13, seven. I know they're not comp guys,
but I just have them up on my leaderboard now.
This he just said really strong pitch qualities and I just feel

(01:09:18):
like like I said, I think he just showed us what he was able
to do and the Major League level.
And I wouldn't be shocked if if if we see a kind of the top 25
kind of SP season from him just given the way he so let.
Me, let me let before, before wewrap up, because there is this
kind of bubble of young startingpitchers that lots of people

(01:09:38):
have talked about. I know James talked about it
with Eno. We've talked about it because
we're going through the ADP. How important is it to you to
leave a draft with an exposure to these young arms?
Or do you approach start building a starting rotation as
it's just fucking numbers? Like give me old, give me give

(01:10:00):
me Sunny Gray and Sandy Alcantara and Nate Givaldi and
they can all be 38 and quote UN quote boring, but I think
they'll put a better number. Like how much exposure do you
want? Do you want these upside guys?
Do you need these upside guys? Or could you give a shit if you
have exposure to them on a team?I'm not going to force it, but I

(01:10:25):
do want some exposure. Yeah.
I think the their ability for their upside versus grabbing
someone, you know who can you might be able to find that
profile later. Not to say Nathan of all that
you could find 100 picks later, but I do think there's a lot of
those veteran pitches around here that you can find similar

(01:10:45):
skill sets in terms of volume 100 like 75 picks to 100 picks
later. And I want to take a shot again,
it's it's maybe not in every draft, you know, could you might
get into a room where they startflying off the board a little
bit earlier than you want. But I do want I do want to have
a hand in some Chase Burns and some Nolan McLean and Treya

(01:11:06):
Savage and Bubba Chandler. I just think that they're those
those SP threes who can really evolve through if they can turn
out an SP1 to two type season, which they're very capable of.
And I think that's just a lot ofvalue and it's exciting.
I mean, it's fantasy baseball and I think that's part of it
too. You know, there's always an

(01:11:27):
attraction to these kind of pictures for a good reason.
And obviously there's bad reasontoo, like the traps in a lot of
them, but I, I'm, I'm interestedin them enough, especially with
the pitcher to go in this range too.
They're all those guys like you could say Nathan evolved that
you could pick apart and say, yeah, sure, I'd rather have
Nathan evolved. But when you get to like the
Robbie Rays and the Trevor Rogers and the even Pablo Lopez

(01:11:49):
and Gavin Williams are just in that range while we're playing
with ADP and just picking, you know, not getting too far to the
box and pushing them up. And Shane Bieber, who has
question mark. Matthew, I I don't mind having
these guys at all. Or targeting.
Yeah. I agree every year is different.
Last year was a great year to betargeting older starting

(01:12:09):
pitchers. We won't know obviously until
the end of the season what this year was a great one, but it
feels like in a lot of years it's like here is a list of 10
guys who could be called up and be stud starting pitchers up
from the Miners at some point between May 1st and September

(01:12:30):
1st this year. I think that waste not wasting
spending premium bench spots on starting pitcher, darts,
rookies, guys who are not opening in the majors is a
mistake. But if you want to pay up for
them, these are like it's it's as rich a list of guys who are
already in the majors, who we'vealready seen in the majors but

(01:12:52):
are very young as I can rememberin a long time.
Like this is a really good list.Some of them are going to get
hurts. I heard James podcast the other
day with doctor Dave and Chase Burns is right at the top of his
list of injury risks. I get I get the logic.
Some of them will not work out. Like if you told me Trey Savages
control disappears and he struggles control for like 5-7

(01:13:17):
game starts, I'd nod along and saying yeah, I could see that
happen. But some of them are also going
to strike out 200 guys this year.
So I think that it's a good yearto not be stupid about it, not
be like, I won't get them at anycost.
I'm gonna chase them up the draft board.
And if they're going in the fifth round by Vegas, that's
where I'm gonna be spending. It's like.

(01:13:39):
That's probably not the right answer, but there are some
really good pictures here. Yeah, without a doubt.
And and it's like real quick on my point of just waiting just a
little bit for that next like SP4.
So if you maybe incorporated oneof these young guys, you know,
after pick 200, you have like immediately four guys who struck
out 175 guys or more last year. That's Baz Gore, Flaherty and

(01:14:03):
Gallon as soon as you enter ADP200.
And then you have Aaron Nola, who's all these guys are kind of
capable of put in that 175 to 200 strikeout season with their
risk, of course, and they're andthey're semi risky profile.
But there's there's an opportunity to like grab one of
those young guys. And if you want to back it up
with a guy who's been consistently striking up guys,
you know, you can follow that uplater.

(01:14:23):
So. Yeah, we may, we may need, we
may need to make a wager if you're all over Jack Flaherty
this year, because I, I'm curious to hear all your
arguments on why you think Flaherty is going to be a stud
this year. I don't think he's going to be a
stud. I just I don't like the more.
That's what that's what Rob all maybe maybe my hearings going
this week. What all I heard was devise a

(01:14:46):
draft strategy built around around getting clarity after
pick 200. And I'm just saying like maybe
there should be a bit of a wagerhere.
If like if you're if you want tobe the Flaherty guy this year,
maybe we should. It's too early.
It's this is something to be done in February, But maybe
we'll have a discussion about a small wager, like a small we
could put a drink on it. Whatever, Whatever the bet is,

(01:15:07):
it's not about the the stakes. It's about your, your strong
belief in Flaherty skills. It's skills.
You're you're just typing a skill.
I'm just fucking with you. Yeah, I just do like the DADP
for him. That's it.
It's. IA wise man once said throw the
ADP out the window, it's meaningful.
Yeah, throw it out the fucking window.
Who cares? Stop stop playing chicken.

(01:15:28):
Just grab your guys and go. That's it.
Who cares? Don't I think there's too much
obsession over over the actual. I get it as a tool.
Trust me, I use it, but it I think they spent too much time
on that. Oh, this could be a dollar kind
of guy versus it's just how can pick the guy you want kids,
doesn't matter. It's like you're not jumping 100
picks. Just go wild, Rob.

(01:15:48):
You know, that's it. You only got one life to live.
I got AI got a 13 pick Max pick on this guy have to take him.
I have no choice. I don't like him at all but but
I have no I have no choice. Like if the room is telling me
this is his match pick, I have no choice, I have to take him.
Without a doubt that's that's how I'll leave you guys.
Go chase those followers in the ADP.

(01:16:11):
Good stuff, Rob, we'll catch you.
We'll get one more episode. We'll we'll find a time when we
have lots of time to give people, like a 2-3 hour to
listen to over the Christmas holidays. 1000% thanks for
tuning into the long tangle pod for Rob Silver.
I'm Rob D don't be a bag of shitplease.

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