Lost Wanderer Podcast: 02/09/25

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:04):
I'm taking off my best weeping Earth be hide into
st to the center.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Reason.

Speaker 1 (00:14):
Percent rat on the space light to night with the stars, and.

Speaker 3 (00:25):
Me frandsome family.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
On this jos Man said, we.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
Ll not the center, mere rat on the space right
now with the stars, and.

Speaker 4 (01:29):
Time for this nation to take a clearly leading role
in space achievement, which in many ways may hold the
key to our future on Earth.

Speaker 5 (01:49):
If I'm paula man, simply.

Speaker 4 (02:04):
Today is a day from morning, and remember Nancy and
I are gained the core of the tragedy of the
Shuttle challenge. The following program may contain wolf language, adult.

Speaker 2 (02:15):
Teens, and bad attempts.

Speaker 4 (02:16):
Of human listener discretion.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
Is it vibe?

Speaker 6 (02:34):
What is President Trump's goal?

Speaker 2 (02:36):
What is his vision?

Speaker 6 (02:37):
He wants to put an American flag on Mars.

Speaker 4 (02:55):
Withthen anguality days.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
Here he ain't are landed.

Speaker 6 (03:00):
Oh good Sunday evening everyone. Thank you for tuning in tonight.
I know there's some other thing going on that we'll
talk about a little bit here and a little bit later,
but thank you for tuning in. I am your host,
je Doubleaff also known as a cosmic bard over on
X and this is the Lost Wonder Podcast. For February ninth,

(03:23):
twenty twenty five. So welcome aboard the ACS serenade. Thank
you for hopefully taking a break from the alleged big
game that's happening, and probably the amazing, wonderful halftime show
that's about the start that's starring really EP that that's
the real guy they're celebrating, Kendrick Lamar. Okay, I guess

(03:45):
it wasn't too difficult of a decision to tune into
this during the halftime break. Thank you. Well, during the
big game, they will be having the old tradition of
a presidential interview, so we thought here at the Lost Wonder,
we should start out the show with some stories coming

(04:06):
from the President that involves space and otherwise. During his
inauguration speech, President Donald Trump invoked the controversial doctrine originally
used to justify American territorial expansion, and a brief end
at his vision for the nation's space program, quote, as

(04:28):
we pursue our manifest destiny into the Stars, launching American
astronauts to plant the stars and stripes on the planet Mars.
With these words, Trumps linked America's space ambitions to a
concept steeped in history expansionism and maybe a little dose
of controversy. But what does this declaration actually mean for

(04:52):
the future of space exploration from the president who helped
already kick off the second generation. Well, the manifest Destiny,
of course, is a nineteenth century concept in the United
States of the divine right to expand across the North
American continent. Trump's reference of the doctrine follows other expansionist

(05:14):
rhetoric in recent weeks, and that's what it is. It's
rhetoric for the most part, including valves to take back
control of the Panama Canal and maybe a desire to
buy Greenland or Gaza or Canada or all the above.
That said, the phrase can be interpreted in different ways
depending on who the listener is, but Trump's speech was

(05:36):
far from the first time that manifest destiny has been
invoked when talking about space. It's something of a touchdown
for US exploration enthusiasts and many practitioners. References to the
Wild West and the US interior of the nineteenth century
are frequently used by companies, media and politicians when trying

(05:57):
to wax lyrical about outer space, particularly in regard to
a spirit of exploration and conquering new Lands. On the
implications of Manifest Destiny for NASA in the broader space
sector remains somewhat unclear. It is noted that Trump's specifically
mentioning Mars in the inauguration speech carries more weight in

(06:19):
terms of policy. It could potentially suggest a switch to
focus US human spaceflight on Mars as well as or
perhaps instead of the Moon, which NASA is still trying
to target via its Artamus program. More on that later
in the show. Now Elon Musk, who of course played
a very pivotal key role in Trump's presidential election campaign

(06:41):
and is close to the president, as a well documented
interest in putting humans on Mars. A new focus on Mars,
if confirmed and funding requests for our future policy statements,
would likely mean Musk SpaceX would be tasked with making
this reality, because, let's face it, only organization on the
base of this planet right now that could probably achieve it,

(07:05):
but that would have impacts for NASA's roles in the
centrality of SpaceX, which is of course a private company
to America's space endeavors. And though he did mention this
manifest destiny, Trump in head of doge Elon Musk may
have inadvertently hindered NASA a little maybe, for NASA has

(07:29):
ordered a pause on all work by key planetary and
astrophysics science committees due to a recent executive order by
President Donald Trump. When a series of memos sent from
NASA headquarters late Friday, January thirty first, the Space Agency
directed the leaders of at least ten planetary science assessments
and analysis groups that cover a variety of topics, from

(07:50):
the exploration of the Moon and Solar System planets to
ocean worlds like the icy moons of Saturn and Jupiter,
And according to Space News, NASA astrophilm assessment groups received
similar memos, all of which cited a need to ensure
the groups were in compliance with recent executive orders by Trump. Now,

(08:12):
the memos stated six Trump executive actions, but three of
them aimed at ending diversity, equity and inclusion programs at
the federal level, to other targeting so called gender ideology extremism,
and another referring to unleashing America energy that rollback climate

(08:36):
change related to executive orders that were done by the
Biden administration. So I'm not sure how any of those
six are actually going to hinder NASA unless NASA just
basically admit it to not having the best people on
only tokens in these committees and impacted by it. If

(08:57):
they're going to be hindered as much, maybe Frum was right,
and I try not to be political, but the pause
order from NASA headquarters has already led to the cancelation
of at least one planetary science meeting. The Mercury Expiration Group,
known by the ACRONYMMEXAG the schedule to hold its first

(09:19):
in person meeting this week from February fourth through February sixth,
but they no longer met quote. We are forced therefore
to cancel it. This turn of events is shocking and concerning,
and it's extra painful given the order comes four days
before their first in person meeting. Oops. The nearly three

(09:41):
day hybrid message was expected to include up to two
hundred scientists attending either in person or virtually, which still
could have been done but still might to judge all that,
and one scientist, ed Rivera Valentine, shared on the social
media site Blue Sky, so take that with whatever grain
of salt you want. It was expected to include a

(10:02):
number of researchers connected to the DEEPAI Columbo Mercury mission
run by Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and the European Space Agency.
This probe just made its six flyby of Mercury on
January eighth. On NASA's Assessment and Analysis Group meet regularly
to assess the latest discoveries and missions in their specific

(10:22):
fields and report them back to the Space agency internal
Planetary Science and Astrophysics divisions. While they provide key insight
into space science, the groups are not formal advisory committees
overseen by the Federal Advisory Committee Act. Many of the
planetary Science committees are overseen by the Lunaran Planetary Institute,
which itself is managed by the University Space Research Association.

(10:46):
Shores seem like a lot of hands in this pot,
doesn't it.

Speaker 5 (10:53):
On.

Speaker 6 (10:53):
NASA's Assessment Analysis Group has not said anything new in
the recent week how any of upcoming events may be impacted,
But if we find out anything here, I will definitely
let you know and probably make fun of them. Now,
we do have some good news coming from NASA. NASA's

(11:13):
Jet Propulsion Laboratory began resuming normal operations about two weeks
ago after the major wildfires that have caused widespread devastation
across southern California since early January forced its closure of JPL,
which runs many of NASA's high profile robotic missions. Is
located at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains just

(11:34):
north of LA and was shuttered today after the Eden
fire ignited near the Altadena community of January. January seventh,
the fire raged very close to the agency's campus. Firefighters
kept the deadly flames from reaching the historic lab, but
it remained closed except for a small number of essential personnel.
Hopefully DOGE doesn't find out who's essential and who's not

(11:55):
when it comes to them. That left the Mission control
center for the Deep Space Network empty for the first
time since it's opened in sixty years. The lab fully
opened to all employees again on January twenty seventh, following repairs,
clean up, and extensive safety monitoring. According to JPL. Now

(12:15):
for those that don't know, the La fires have killed
nearly thirty people and left tens of thousand more without homes,
including more than two hundred JPL employees who lived in Autodina. Quote.
Our immediate concerns are with our neighboring communities and our employees.
Over one hundred additional others, including JPL director Lori Leshen,

(12:38):
are displaced long term after their houses and neighborhoods were
reduced to rubble leush Than told EOS for people whose
houses are lost, we don't have lots of other places
to go. They can come to the lab. And I
have to tell you, I did that myself last week,
and being in a familiar environment really felt good. I
think there is something about being grounded in a routine

(13:00):
that has really helped at this time unquote. Now dedicated
team at JPO has been providing employees with support throughout,
including a disaster relief fund it started in partnership with
cal Tech, which ended up raising over two hundred million
dollars for staff and students affected by the fires. But

(13:20):
even if NASA is dwindling down, probably for the better
some programs, it has recently announced some awards to nine
different companies totaling around twenty four million. That's a million
with an M dollars. A bevy of space companies will
lend a hand to NASA's Moon goals under new contracts

(13:41):
centered around the agency's upcoming artemist missions. Nine companies in
seven states are now engaged under the next Space Technologies
or Exploration Partnerships appendix are contracts. These contracts awards are
the catalyst for developing critical capabilities for the Artemis missions
and everyday needs of ASH for long term exploration on

(14:01):
the lunar surface and Under the new contracts, the companies
will work on a range of tasks to tackle the
challenges that will arise in the Moon's environment as identified
in NASA's Moon to Mars Architecture, an overarching plan that
aims to address the quote elements needed for long term
human led scientific discoveries in deep space unquote. Now, the

(14:23):
total proposals, as I said, are worth twenty four million,
with an m in total, with each company receiving a
portion thereof of the funding for their work. The company's
name in the announcement are the following Blue Origin out
of Florida, Lados out of Virginia, Moonprint out of Delaware,
Pratt Miller Defense out of Michigan, Special Aerospace Services out

(14:46):
of Alabama, INTUITA Machines and MDA Space out of Texas,
and Lockheed Martin and Sierra Space out of Colorado. Now
most of the contracts involved logistics and strategies for dealing
with lunar surface cargo such as moving, staging, storing, tracking
and transferring gear and even something as often overlooked as

(15:07):
trash management. And it will be interesting to see what
they end up coming up with and how, if at
all possible, it can be applied to everyday life here
on the Moon and maybe even one day on Mars.

(15:28):
And that said, we do have one last special project
NASA is doing that we should mention regarding the miss
many Americans are gathering at watch parties and sports bars
to cheer on their favorite team or to just watch
the commercials, and they are helping to contribute to the

(15:49):
consumption of an estimate at one point four billion with
a be chicken wings being consumed and in general exercise
merriment for this occasion. That said, these watch parties don't
have to be limited to Earth, as NASA has provided

(16:13):
a live uplink to the Super Bowl to the International
Space Station should the astronauts on board choose to stay
up and watch it. Now, an astronauts day aboard the
ISS is not attuned to any real time zone in
the United States. The International and International Space Station means
the astronauts of multiple nationalities are normally working aboard the
space station together, and the need to coordinate with mission

(16:37):
control teams on opposite sides of the planet. Another reason
lies in the fact that as of right now, the
space station experiences a new sunrise every forty five minutes
in its orbit as it goes around the planet at
roughly seventeen thousand, five hundred miles per hour, so basing
your sleep cycle on what daylight peeps through the station's

(16:57):
windows would so it'd be chaotic. So the ISS operates
on Coordinated at Universal Time or UTC, also known as
for US oldies Duringwich meantime. This puts NASA astronauts aboard
the station typically five to six hours ahead of Mission
control in Houston, Texas, depending of course on daylight savings.

(17:19):
So for any of the NASA astronaut cohorts in orbit
that want to stay up and watch this game, kickoff
didn't start until their time eleven thirty PM. And there
are of course four NASA astronauts currently living aboard the ISS.
Expedition seventy two Commanders Sunny Williams and Flight engineered Butch
wilmar Or still stranded on there for day number two

(17:40):
forty seven as you can read the sign on the ship,
and as we know, their ten day mission turned into
so far nearly ten months after NASA decided to land
star Liner back on Earth n CREWD. They were joined
a few months later by astronauts Dampetite, who launched to
the space station aboard of Russian Soyu's spacecraft, and Nick
haig To launched on the space Crew nine Dragon Tesk

(18:02):
was returning Williams and Wilmore eventually along with Hagen his
crewmate Alexander Garbonov of Russia Space Agency ross Cosmos and
as of now, there are no on orbit messages or
content planned for the astronauts in relation to the super
Bowl itself, but any of the crew are free to
stay up and watch NASA's uplink. As for which the

(18:24):
teams the astronauts might be rooting for, NASO officials only
said they were unable to speculate, as none of the
astronauts replied to request for comments, meaning they, like probably
the majority of America, really don't care, and even some
probably would cheer for the mutual destruction of both teams

(18:44):
taking place on the field and having to cancel the game.
All in all, I know it was a little harsh,
but you know they're out there. You just re Twitter,
but you know there is someone who will not be
most likely watching the Big.

Speaker 7 (19:03):
Game, and now assholes in space, maybe maybe they might

(19:29):
watch it.

Speaker 6 (19:29):
I mean, the commercials are so so far ful and
I've seen the commercials have been a little bit better
except for that that Seal commercial. And I apologize for
not letting everyone know I was starring in the Dorito's commercial.
If you know, you know, But China isn't an interesting
position as we sit here and have our bread and

(19:51):
circus of a Super Bowl, and China is, you know,
working diligently to get to the moon and beyond themselves.
And I thought it'd be interesting to maybe take a
look back and take a look forward as to why

(20:12):
we need to pay attention. In the late nineteen fifty seven,
the US Navy' Vanguard rocket was prime to launch the
world's first artificial satellite, but in the morning of October fourth,
the Soviet Union struck first and lobbed a small metal
ball in the orbit that Moscow Radio called Sputnik. Now,

(20:35):
even in America, we all know that name Sputnik. I
don't know how many people actually know what Sputnik maidens.
In English, it means fellow traveler. I'm not gonna lie.
That's actually the first time I've heard that. I find
that kind of pretty cool that Sputnik moment. Moment had
a profound impact on the nascent space age, significantly escalating

(20:58):
the race between the US and the Soviet Union, prompting
soul searching to take place within the United States, and
during a national effort to promote science and math education.
America ultimately would win the race to the Moon, and
the benefits change the nation in the world. But now
the question that confronts US today is can and will

(21:21):
in the United States prevail again? Sixty seven years after
sputn inch space is the great strategic frontier, Yet the
US faces growing competition from countries won't mostly China and
it's still a little bit Russia, but mostly China, both
of which are targeting Western space assets with economy and

(21:44):
defense crippling weapons. Now at the same time, the space
economy is exploding as technological advances and reusability, avionics, and
artificial intelligence increasingly put lunar resources within reach. Then finally,
there is the geoplasolitical side. The renewed lunar push, initiated
under President Trump, is still seen as a geopolitical statement

(22:08):
and a symbol of national prestige. The outcome of this
lunar competition will have major ramifications today and well into
the future, and the next Button Moment will take place,
just as it did in the nineteen fifties, against the
backdrop of great power competition. This time the top compent
tenders are the US and China. The winner will not

(22:31):
only claim bragging rights, but will have first DIBs on
lunar resources, especially at the Moon's southern polar region, where
safe sunlit landing sites are scarce. Whoever gets there first
will hold the winning hand in setting norms of behavior
and rules of governance, which could limit who can access

(22:52):
valuable resources for decades to come on The United States
National Space Policy, released in December of twenty twenty, direct
NASA to land the next American man and the first
American woman on the Moon by twenty twenty four, followed
by a sustained presence by twenty twenty eight. Four years later,

(23:12):
both goals remain out of reach. NASA's first crude lunar
landing has slipped repeatedly, with no permanent presence planned in
the foreseeable future. In contrast, Beijing has voice plans to
land Chinese talkinnauts on the lunar surface before twenty thirty,
with the prospect of a heavy heavy lift launch vehicle,

(23:34):
crew capsule and lunar landing flight ready as early as
twenty twenty seven. With so much a stake, Beijing will
take great risk to land before the end of twenty
twenty nine, the eightieth anniversary of the founding of the
People's Republic of China, and as usual, China has taken
inspiration in most likely Pilford technology from the United States,

(23:59):
emulating the fast, inexpendable Apollo program designed with the sixties.
The assistant to the Director of the Chinese Space Agency,
Xi Kuiming told China State television for now the development
of primary spacecraft such as a long March ten rocket
Bngzhau cru spacecraft, the new lander and spacecrafts are finished.

(24:21):
If that is accurate, China leads the US and the
race for the next crude lunar landing. In contrast, NASA's
timeline for the Artemis program is woefully behind schedule. Artemis three,
the first planned landing mission has been slated for late
twenty twenty five, but was recently postponed to no earlier

(24:43):
than mid twenty twenty seven. This date is supported by
the wonderful people at the Government Accountability Office, stating that
Artemistry is unlikely to land before twenty twenty seven due
to the pace of lunar landing and space suit development.
NASA's own internal analysis tagged in early twenty eighteen landing

(25:05):
with an uninspiring seventy percent confidence level. In other words,
there's a seventy percent chance at NASA's lunar suit and
SpaceX's human landing system will be ready by that date.
I have a feeling space X will be ready by then. However,
it also remains there is a one in three chance
that the critical technology won't be flight ready until possibly

(25:29):
twenty twenty eight or even twenty twenty nine. The contrasting
commitment to deadlines is very telling. While China single mindedly
pursues a focused and coherence lunar program fortified by unified
political structure, the US lunar program is often swayed by
political wins and is struggling to deliver key elements on time. Furthermer.

(25:54):
Artemis is architecturally complex and faces regulatory delays. The FAA protracted.
It is protracted and has quite the byzantine process for
things as such as issuing starship launch license to SpaceX
critical for starship lunar lander development. Though recently improved, the

(26:15):
licensing process still needs dreamlining to the nth degree to
unleash American industry. Now the upshot, the US risk being
caught flat footed once again, as it was in the fifties.
Peter Garrettson, co director of the American Foreign Policy Council
Space Policy Initiative, likens the current situation to the classic

(26:37):
fable the tortoise and the hair, with America and the
role of overconfident hair. The combination of America's delay in
Chinese steady progress raises suspect that next humans on the
Moon will not unfurl the stars and stripes. It is
entirely possible that the first woman in person of collar

(27:00):
NASA's stated priority for a first lunar crew, we'll speak Mandarin,
not English. China and its partners have marched forward, notching
one success after another, writs Thomas or Brucken, NASA's former
head of science, He continued, there is no reason to

(27:20):
believe they will not be first to send a crude
mission to the lunar South Pole. Now that prospect should
set off alarm bells in Washington. A Chinese crewed landing
ahead of the United States, would, just as the original
Sputnik moment, impact the perception of global leadership, thereby reshaping

(27:41):
global power dynamics. You can pretend this won't be a
national humiliation, but it will be. It'll be sold by
the CCP as another demonstration of their successes in the
US failures resulting in PRC partnerships and treaties across South
America and Africa. Chinese boots on the moon would surely

(28:05):
have wide geopolitical significance, including critically broader space governance. Besides
reaping geopolitical rewards, China could use the prestige garnered by
an early human landing to codify regulations by international bodies
that would steiny space development, which the US right now
currently leads. Now, American launch providers, especially SpaceX and payload

(28:28):
delivery companies like Intuitive Machines, tower over global competitors for now,
unleashing the synergy of public and private American space power
can achieve extraordinary world leading results in record time. However,
American competitors face headwinds and regulatory hurdles that can trip

(28:49):
them up in this lunar competition. The US government needs
to balance these private hard chargers with NASA's programs to
speed a return to the Moon by American astronauts and
their international partners. Elon Musk has the layered that declared
that each launch of the Starship rocket requires quote multiple

(29:11):
FISH licenses in addition to lent the FAA safety reviews.
An open letter from his company, SpaceX called out patently
absurd regulatory delays the FAA. Snail Pace has also called
the eyes of members of Congress, including Senator Jerry Moran,
Republican of Kansas, a senior authorizer and appropriator who oversees

(29:36):
the space sector. These delays threatened to hobble Artemis as
China paces ahead. To avoid seeding ground and influence to
China and Russia here and on the Moon, the new
again Trump administration in Congress should immediately streamline and simplfly

(29:59):
light launch licensing, elevate the Office of Commercial Space Transportation
from the FAA to report directly to the Secretary of
Transportation would probably be a critical first step. It should
be led by a busney savvy professional appointed by an
accountable to the president, says professor author and space policy

(30:20):
expert Greg Altree. Almost said gene Autry. Sorry, angels fan,
it's always I hear Altry. It's always going to be Gene.
This would clear the regulatory and bureaucratic underbrush and is
the single most impactful and urgent step lawmakers could take
to accelerate Artemis. Currently, the SLS rocket and Crew Torion

(30:41):
capsule are the only available and funded technology to transport
astronauts to the lunar neighborhood, where both are obscenely costly
and years behind schedule for a crude launch. Some experts
predict SLS will ultimately be replaced because of cost and
delay as reusable for heavy lift vehicles like Starship and

(31:02):
New Glen Common Online instead of SOLS, slasher ryon the
human landing system configuration of Space Ex's Starship are possibly
blue origins. Blue Moon spacecraft could carry astronauts from Earth
to lunar orbit, refuel there, and then land on the
lunar surface. There is no reason these humanerated vehicles could

(31:24):
not transport crew from the Earth to the Moon. Alternatively,
it distributed architecture with space Separate launchers of a Falcon
Heavy and or New Glen rockets could boost Orion in
the upper stage in the low Earth orbit where they
would dock and perform a translunar injection burn. And there
is room for multiple providers and of course the side
benefit of competition they would bring in this lunar quest,

(31:50):
but that is a project for the longer term. For now,
the fastest path to the Moon is to augment the
Artemis program with more power, more energy, and increased speed.
As presumptive head of the National Space Council, Vice President
Jdevance can and should inject a sense of urgency and

(32:11):
energy to get American boots on the ground as soon
as possible and permanently inhabits the Moon by twenty thirty
through public private partnerships. Resting on past laurels, especially in
the new and high profile frontier space is a service

(32:32):
way to lose the future for a host of reasons,
national security, geo politics, economics, and cultural residents. Being the
first to return humans to the Moon matters. There will
be no metal for second place, as the world is watching.

Speaker 3 (33:05):
Alone three and the stars as a silver glow.

Speaker 8 (33:11):
I'll cast the planets, cast gravities whole through endless light.

Speaker 2 (33:15):
Through silence, and I let behind the world and new
tracing your tree.

Speaker 3 (33:20):
There are only few persuing now.

Speaker 9 (33:22):
A drifting the black tree on all time through galaxy
is strange on a journey, sublime cup of stars are
flying free through cosaxy, just space and me, a solitary
sold is just.

Speaker 3 (33:36):
So small, flying away where the galaxy is.

Speaker 8 (33:39):
Called leabulous bloom, like flowers and flame, each one whispers
a different.

Speaker 9 (33:50):
Name across like gears, and the age.

Speaker 3 (33:53):
Is gone, racing the light by journey on every planets.

Speaker 9 (33:57):
The story of forcing the dark a memory and inst
in a blowing spark. No no, no self, just distant
suns of forever, tis my voice begun the stocks.

Speaker 3 (34:10):
I'm flying free.

Speaker 9 (34:11):
Through come seas, justicing me, a solitary soul and a
ship so small lying aways when the galaxies.

Speaker 2 (34:19):
Call across the stars.

Speaker 8 (34:32):
I'm flying free through cosmic seas, just facing me, a
solitary soul and a shift so small, riding the waves
with the galaxies call.

Speaker 3 (34:54):
Of what sid of things? The stuns huns every fil drums.

Speaker 9 (35:01):
I'm part of the cosmos, down in the stream, a
sailor stars chasing the trees. Sometimes I wonder if I'll
ever return, or will I burn.

Speaker 6 (35:15):
Like a comic turn by turn?

Speaker 3 (35:17):
But the full, the journey, the great unknown. Just be
warm when I feel alone.

Speaker 9 (35:23):
I'm a wonder free, the fastest dance, dancing dal darkness,
a cosmic chance, with nothing.

Speaker 3 (35:29):
But stars ling my way. I'll keep you forward, jub
let me the stars.

Speaker 9 (35:36):
I'm flying free through cosmesis just spacing me.

Speaker 3 (35:40):
A solitary soul, and it's just so.

Speaker 9 (35:42):
Small, lying the waves where the galaxies call, the word
galaxy is called.

Speaker 3 (35:57):
There's a shrift further from olive known the universe.

Speaker 2 (36:01):
Whispers are never alone.

Speaker 9 (36:03):
A voyage is high, a soul unbound, lost in the
stars where my home is found.

Speaker 6 (36:11):
He welcome back. We're gonna start the second half of
the show with news from the Doom file. Dear Lord,
they're we're dumed, doomed, dum.

Speaker 2 (36:33):
Well.

Speaker 6 (36:33):
First, we'll start with a little d doom. Uncontrolled space
debris re entries are a big growing concern. The prospect
of leftovers from space hot footing into the Earth's atmosphere
can create a collision risk with aircraft and flight. But

(36:54):
while the probability of a strike is low, the consequences
could be catastrophic. And let me see how this works
for you, guys. I have set up I'm going to
lower the monitor here and on the screen and the
monitor you're going to see bits of Starship re entering

(37:18):
from an aircraft's point of view. While pretty you can
understand the possibility of danger.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
Now.

Speaker 6 (37:37):
Recently, the FAA required SpaceX to perform a MISHAF investigation
into the loss of their Starship vehicle during the private
firms launch operations on January sixteenth from the Texas based
star Based facility and during the Starships steven destructive event.
The FAA activated a debris response area and briefly slowed

(38:00):
aircraft outside the area where space vehicle debris was falling
or stopped aircraft at their departure location. Several aircraft requested
to divert to low fuel levels while holding outside impacted areas.
The incident underscores the output from a new study titled
Aerospace Closures due to re Entering Space Objects published in

(38:23):
Scientific Reports and Open Access Journal. The research points out
that the risk is rising due to increase in both
re entries and airline flights quote and response. National authorities
may choose to preemptively close airspace during re entry events,
some having already done so, I'm sure there is a
twenty six percent chance of an uncontrolled space debris re

(38:45):
entry in busy airspaces such as the northern northeastern United
States or northern Europe. Each year, there are over two thousand,
three hundred rocket bodies that are already in orbit and
will eventually recent a re enter in an uncontrolled manner.

(39:06):
So you don't like those odds, okay, let us move
on to the capital D doom segment. The odds of
the asteroid twenty twenty four y ARE four impacting Earth
in twenty thirty two have just been remodified and increased
to one in forty three. First reported on twenty twenty four.

(39:32):
Y R four the odds of impacting Earth when it
passed the planets in seven years for just one in
eighty three. So now it seems like the chances of
a strike have almost doubled. But because it is Sunday
and math is allowed, let's do it, shall we a
one in eighty three chance of an impact represented about

(39:52):
a one point two percent chance of an impact. That
meant there was a ninety eight point eight percent chance
that it would miss Earth completely. The new figure of
one in forty three represents a two point three percent
chance of a strike. No. It was explained that with
newly discovered asteroids like twenty twenty four yr four, certain

(40:15):
characteristics of their orbit are initially confirmed to a much
higher degree than others. We end up with a good
understanding of the plane in space that the asteroid is
orbiting on, and not exactly where along that plane it
will be. This manifests with some uncertainty along a confirmed
line called the line of variation or twenty twenty four
y four. The center of that distribution passes close to Earth,

(40:38):
so with every update the uncertainty will change. This has
the effect of slightly increasing the odds that will hit Earth,
even though the most likely outcome is a miss. Imagine
holding a stick that is a few feet long. If
you move the stick in your hand a fraction of
an inch, you hardly notice any movement on the other end.

(41:00):
Now imagine that stick is million and millions and millions
of miles long. Moving your hand a fraction of an
inch will cause dramatic changes. On the other side, it
was explaining that in the case of the asteroid, the
fraction of an inch movement and the tiny uncertainties is
the positional measurements of the asteroid from the telescope image
that can arise from small timing errors and minor positional errors. Quote.

(41:25):
It's not possible to get a perfect measurement of the
asteroid from any telescope, so all we can do then
is plot all of the possible orbits that fit the
given of observational arc at any time. This ends up
producing a normal distribution of orbits that are then possible
to determine a more accurate likelihood. So of course, with

(41:50):
things currently trending for the better, you can probably expect
to hear more about this in more doom scenarios in
the incoming months and years. Can't have us all feeling
all kind of sort of upty with good feelings, you know,
But as we are feeling good on this moment, and

(42:12):
because here at the Lost Wonder Podcast we really really
really hate in DT, I bring this next story the
ninety fifth anniversary of Pluto's official discovery by Clyde tomboll
At the low Observatory and Flagstaff Arizona is rapidly approaching

(42:34):
and the historic location is geary enough to host a
grand celebration on February thirteenth of the seventeenth with a
five day series of educational and social activities to mark
the occasion. Lowell's sixth annual I Heart Pluto Festival will
honor the remote icy world that has reclassified as a
dwarf planet in two thousand and six because Neil de

(42:54):
grass Tyson is an asshole and originally found it found
at the location on February eighteenth, nineteenth. This year is
also the tenth anniversary of NASA's New Horizons mission and
it's fly by a Pluto, the planet where it captured
close up images of unparalleled detail and beauty. To boldly
go beyond New Horizons is this year's theme and will

(43:17):
feature a Pluto pub crawl, exclusive book signings, and a
family friendly food and fun at the new Astronomy Discovery Center.
And attendance will be Adam niemoy son of of course,
Leonard nimoy. In addition, New Horizons Principal investigator Alan Stern

(43:39):
and common Hunting superstar David Levy will also join moderator
David Aiken or Iiker, editor in chief of Astronomy Magazine,
for an evening panel discussion at the Orpheum Theater on
February fifteenth, nimoy telspace dot com. I'm one of the
lay people in the planet on the panel with a
couple of distinguished astronomers and scientists who have more in

(44:02):
depth knowledge about all things space. I am coming as
a sort of a observer, a fan of astronomy and
science fiction. You talk a little bit about Star Trek
and Leonard and the connection to the Lowell Observatory. Percival Lowell,
the founder of the observatory, and the family that funded
the telescope are actually based in Boston. A Pluto has

(44:23):
always been a favorite upschool children of scientists not named
Neil de Grosse Heysen and amateur stargazers, and the allure
of this distant dwarf lanet has never been stronger To
credit Percival Lowe. It was Planet X, and he postulated
that there was another planet out there as the far

(44:45):
reaches of our Solar system. It was just one of
the mysteries of that time. It was another thirteen or
fourteen hundred years before the planet was actually discovered. This
idea that it takes like two hundred and fifty years
or Pluto to orbit the Sun. I think that's just bizarre.
Are also think also the fact that the planet has
been demystified by new horizons now. Nimoy would go and

(45:09):
tell them that space dot com that his father owned
a telescope and would use it to watch the skies.
He visited the Lowe Observatory, and he was at White
Sands Missile Base in the sixties and brought back all
these models of various satellites. Adam would go on to say,
I sent a picture of him with one of those models,
Vanguard one, to the people at Lowell to promote my
appearents there. He had a fascination with it. He would

(45:34):
go on funny. He'd talk to astrophysicists who would be
asking him detailed questions about their discoveries or their theorems
and projections and ask his opinion. He always though had
a stock answer, which was you're on the right track.
But it was over his head. But he definitely had
an interest in it. And here to think all this time,

(45:57):
I honestly thought Adam's greatest achievement was marrying Jadzea Dax, Yes,
look it up, but the fact that he might actually
be acknowledging that Pluto is still a planet that might uh,
that might be having sex with jed Zea ep which

(46:23):
thumbs up for the yeah, yeah, I'm I'm leading that
way to Okay, it's the second greatest thing after sleeping
with jad Zea Das.

Speaker 2 (46:30):
Okay.

Speaker 6 (46:35):
But as we're on this theme of dwarf planets, Paris
is in the news. Using AI to come through data
gathered by NASA's Dawn spacecrafts, I just have conducted a
detailed scan of the dwarf planet Saras to map reasons
rich and organic molecules to determine whether these building blocks

(46:56):
of life originated from within the planet or were delivered
by external sources. Now, Sarah's boasts a fascinating history. Located
in the asteroid belt between Jupiter and Mars, it was
once classified as an asteroid. However, its size where Sarah's
makes up twenty five percent of the asteroid belt's total mass,
and distinct characteristics set it apart from its rocky neighbors,

(47:18):
leading scientists to reclassified as a dwarf planet in two
thousand and six, because Neil the gross Tyson is an
asshole anyway. Sarah's is a cryovolcanic world where ice and
other volatile substances are expelled by volcanic activity instead of
molten rock. It is this volcanic activity that led scientists
to previously assume that the organic molecules on the dwarf

(47:40):
planet were generated and transported from the door's planet interior,
but this new AI powered study suggests a different explanation.
Of course, the first assumption was that Sarah's unique cryovolcanism
has triggered and transported the organic material from the interior
of the body to the surface. But a results now otherwise,

(48:01):
says Andreas. Not that from the Max Planck Institute for
Solar System Research in Germany, the planet known as HD
two seven. It's farther out from its star than Mars

(48:22):
is from the Sun and on the other end of
its orbit as close as venuses. Each orbit. The planet
begins begins out beyond the habitable zone, where it is
too cold for liquid water, before passing right through the
habitable zone. And I think I just messed up hu

(48:43):
oad Please Yeah, two pages stuck together. I am so
sorry on that. Hey, let's get back to Saras. That's
never happened before. Anyway, the AI was able to ascertain

(49:03):
certain things on Sarus, and it's just the organic molecules
could have been present on asteroids and comets in the
Outer Solar System early in its formation. So now let's go,
what I just jumped to another planet that is, oh,
I don't know, a little further out than Saras, a
little further out than planet Pluto, a little further out
past my home planet, and go, oh, I don't know,

(49:25):
let's pick a random number of late years nineteen point
seven or it is a super Earth planet that dips
in and out of its habitable zone, which I've kind
of already before mentioned. Now, the planet actually provides a
brilliant target for the next generation of telescopes to probe
its atmosphere and for scientists to test extreme limits of

(49:45):
planetary habitability once again. This planet known as HD two
zero seven ninety four D. It's luminosity and proximity make
it an ideal candidate for future telescopes whose mission will
be to observe the atmosphere of exoplan it's directly now.
This HD two O seven nine four D has a
mass six point six times greater than Earth and was

(50:07):
found by astronomers using the Espresso and Harps spectrographs on
the European Southern Observatory telescopes in Chile. These instruments measure
what's termed radial velocity, the amount by which a star
wobbles around the center of its mass that it shares
with its planets. In general, the larger the wobble, the
greater the mass. Gentlemen, know what I'm talking about. It's

(50:31):
the wobbling star that has betrayed the existence of the
HD two zero seven nine four D, where astronomers have
not actually directly observed, nor taken the picture of it,
or even seen it's transit yet. But the star in
question HD two O seven nine four are, also known
as AD two Eridani, is a yellow G six type

(50:51):
star that is slightly dimmer and less massive than our
own Sun. It's also relatively bright in our night sky,
shining at a magnitude of four point three, which is
bright enough to be seen with the unaided eye, and
the constellation of Aridanus the River. In contrast, many of
the stars hosting extra planets are too faint to be

(51:11):
seen with the naked eye, which actually marks out HD
two zero seven ninety four as something special because of
how close the system is to us. It has been
observed over the past twenty years and has a somewhat
mixed history when it comes to exoplanets. Now ninety four
d orbits at star with two other super Earth planets

(51:34):
designated B and C, which you're over at their star
every eighteen point three and eighty nine point six days, respectively.
These were discovered in twenty eleven by a team of
Geneva astronomers. At the same time, the team found evidence
for a third planet with an orbital period of forty days,
but this would be turned out to be false. Only

(51:55):
now has the real third planet actually become apparent in
the data. Michael Krettinger of the University of Oxford said,
we analyze the data for years, carefully eliminating sources of contamination,
and he developed an algorithm called Yarra to carefully search
the data and pick out exit planet's faint radio velocity

(52:16):
signal from background noise and improved vital and the effort
to confirm the number of the planets as being real.
That said, what is really most remarkable about this new
planet is its orbit. A Johannes Kepler taught us that

(52:38):
no planetary orbit is perfectly circular. Most do adhere to
an orbit that is pretty damn close to circle. Some worlds, however,
do have more elongated orbits. The degree of elongation, known
as scentiostasy, is measured on a scale of zero for
a perfect circle to one a hyperbole. Earth orbits is

(53:04):
rated at a point one seven Mars point oh five
to five in mercuries at two point two oh six. Now,
this planet's orbit is more elongated than in a planet
in our Solar system, with a rating of point four.
It's six hundred and forty seven day long orbit is

(53:25):
forty days shorter than Mars, giving you an idea of
where it is located in its planetary system. However, this
large escenticity means its orbit ranges from as far as
two astronomical units to as close as point seventy five
astronomical units. In the context of our Solar system, Mars
on the outer edge of our habitable zone, orbits are

(53:47):
Sun and an averagstance of about one point five while
Vinus on the inner edge of the habital zone or
orbits at about point seven to two on the climate
in such a world, world has to be beyond bizarre.
Winters would be very long and hard, and life might
struggle to survive on a planet that spends most of

(54:08):
its time frozen. Then spring would come melting the ice,
followed by a brief but intense summer, where oceans might
even begin to evaporate, only to precipipitate back out as
rain and autumn and snow in winter. Whether life could
survive on such an extreme world is unknown. Let me
tell you life finds a way now. On Earth, of course,

(54:31):
our seasons are driven by our planets twenty three point
four degree tilt. For instance, northern summers occur when our
planets northern hemisphere is tilted to the sun. But no
matter the tilt of this newly discovered planet, its seasons
are instead determined by how far it has progressed along
it's orbit. It is truly quite irremarktable planet and ones

(54:54):
and one. I think we really should keep our eyes on.
And with that thought now firmly plant it in your head.
It's having to go grab a drink on a seat
by the campfire and lose yourself in the stars. And
we start out with my executive producer's new favorite torture
device for me on this show. Because on February twelfth,

(55:22):
februaryst full moon will occur in the Americas. The moon
will appear full on both Tuesday and Wednesday evening. The
indigenous Joa and Shippewa people the Great Lakes region called
the February fool moon now Vinnie Gisis or suckerfish moon
or Mikwa Geese's the bear moon. For them, it signifies

(55:43):
a time just goa how to see beyond reality and
to communicate through energy rather than sound.

Speaker 2 (55:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (55:48):
Gonquin call it Wapa Communica come o melchem also known
as the ice and the River is Gone moon. The
Cree of North America call it kiss apism. The great moon,
a time when the animals remain hidden away and the
traps are empty. For Europeans, it is known as the

(56:10):
snow moon or hunger moon, while Europeans won now moons
during the winter moon's climb as high as midnight as
the summer noonday sun and actually cast similar shadows. February eighteenth,
the Bright Stars of mighty Oriyan the Hunter shine in

(56:30):
the southern sky on a mid February evening. The Sword
of Arion, which covers an area of one point five
by one degrees about the end of your thumb held
up at arm's length, descends from Orion's three starred belt.
The patch of light in the middle of the sword
is spectacular and bright nebula, known as the Ryan nebula

(56:51):
or mess A forty two and n g C nineteen
seventy six. While several binoculars will reveal the fuzzy natures
of the objects, medium to large aperture telescopes will show
a more complex pattern of veil like gas and dark
dust lanes, and the Trapezium cluster, a tight clup clump
of young stars that formed inside the nebula. Adding an

(57:14):
oxygen three or broadband nebula filter will reveal even more detail.
The nebuland stars forming within are approximately one three hundred
and fifty light years from the Sun than the Orion
arm of the Milky Way Galaxy. We do have some
upcoming launches. Tonight at nine point thirty a Starlink launch
from Vandenberg, China on the eleventh is launching a long

(57:38):
March A eight a demo flight, so olves having to
be listening over in China. They want to go into
hiding that day because it's a demo launch, just saying
better to be safe. Then we have three more Starlink
launches on the eleventh, the fourteenth, and the seventeenth, all

(57:59):
coming from Cape Canaveral. So that's it for tonight's show.
Thank you for putting up with me, and thank you
for tuning in when and however you do. Special thanks
as always to NASA, SpaceX, Space Dot Commerce Technica, NASA's
Spaceflight and more for the great information in the stories.
Normally I would be telling you to stay tuned for
Sunday Night with Alan Ray, but apparently his voice is

(58:21):
getting the better of him and not being able to
do a show tonight, so we'll miss you out catch
you next weekend. Thanks to my executive producer as always
for his help and his inspiration. I hope you have
enjoyed the show and maybe even learned a little and
had a laugh or two as well, even if it

(58:41):
was at me. It's okay, I'll take it. It's a
pretty big place.

Speaker 5 (58:49):
It's bigger than anything anyone who's ever dreamed of before.

Speaker 6 (58:56):
So if it's just us, like an awful waste of space.

Speaker 4 (59:03):
Right when I was.

Speaker 5 (59:09):
Young, it seemed that life was so wonderful, a miracle,
Oh it was beautiful, magical at the burt in the trees.
Would they be singing so happily, oh joyfully, oh playfully
watching me? But the Missabila to teacher.

Speaker 10 (59:32):
How to be sensible, logical, oh, responsible, practical?

Speaker 5 (59:39):
And then they show me word where.

Speaker 10 (59:41):
Recognize so deep beautiful or clinical and intellectual cynical?

Speaker 5 (59:51):
There are times, fellow world to see

Speaker 3 (59:57):
The questions told