2024 NFL Week 1!

NFL week 1 is here and after starting 7-1 to start the year Shaun Rainey is back giving out all picks and player props. Sponsored by Sports Bet Montana.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Do you rent that? Ya? Nah? No, I own it.
That's how I feel about this weekend. Yeah, pay him
paid that me and his money. Joy it wild last
gambling gods, fickle bunch. Oh yeah, so easily offended NFL
Week one. Welcome into the Make It Rainy Podcast. I'm

(00:21):
Sean Raindy sponsored by sports Bet Montana, and boy oh
do we have a fun one between Kansas City and
Baltimore to start. Even more so because we went five
and one on our picks for that game. Uh, you
gotta be sure that you're following me on social media
and on the podcast. We gave out Kansas City minus
two and a half, had a two unit play on

(00:42):
Isaiah Pacheco receiving yards. We had Xavier Worthy over twenty
and a half longest completion. We had Isaiah likely over
sixteen and a half yards, so you only beat that
by like one hundred. Unfortunately, we had Jay Flowers in
the rain Maker as the third leg fifty three yards
and man he had thirty nine. At halftime. We were

(01:05):
looking really good and came up just a little bit short.
So man, I apologize that the rain first rain Maker
of the Year did not hit. We do have one
for the Green Bay Philly game tonight, and then I'll
have two more. I'm gonna do like a sides one
and like a prop one, and I'm gonna try to
make the last leg of those. I'm gonna try to

(01:26):
make the last leg of those have a Sunday night
game and a Monday night game. That way, if the
first two hit, you can hedge out, especially if you're putting,
you know, anything more than like ten bucks on it,
if you're you know, fifteen twenty to win one hundred
and fifty tw hundred bucks something like that. If we
can hit those first two with the boost, it really
pays to be able to hedge out. So I have
a couple of those in mind. I have to submit

(01:50):
the rain makers for this weekend still, but we'll dive
into that as the as the podcast goes on, Okay,
I have We're gonna be a little bit all over
the place. So this is what we're gonna do. We're
gonna go game by game. I'm going to give a
forced pick on the side. I'm going to give out

(02:10):
my teaser legs. And when I mean teaser legs, I'm
saying about like minus two point fifty alternate spread and
you can parlay them together. So for instance, I already
told you guys in when we started out two and
zero on our first college pod, it was I really
like taking North Dakota State moving them up, and we

(02:33):
took Missouri State and moved them up against the Griz.
So this is what we're gonna do Green Bay. They're
two and a half point underdogs against the Eagles. We're
moving them up to eight and a half and pairing
it with five different things. One of them will be
North Dakota plus ten and a half, which will those

(02:53):
will be available soon in the alternate lines as we're
recording this Friday morning. They're not up as of right now,
but I was told that they would be up here
midday end of day, So drink real quick. I really,
I'm a real I'm a big teaser guy. I know
a lot of people don't. But when I like if,

(03:14):
I like I like Packers money line. So if I
can get them up to eight and a half and
pair it with some other things, and I just that's
how I like to bet, especially when I really like,
you know, the long teaser. A lot of people will
know what that is. But if I'm getting through through
a field goal, the key number of three through the
key number of seven. Like, look, I really like Kansas

(03:36):
City minus two and a half. You could have also,
I didn't last night, but you if you would have
pushed Baltimore up to eight and a half as well,
you impaired it with something, you could hit all of it.
And so I really like trying to middle a lot
of these games, especially like if you liked Eagles minus
two and a half, just if you think it's gonna

(03:58):
be a close game, there's just those opportun tunities are there.
So I'm gonna go by every game forced pick on
the side. If I like the total, I'll throw it
out there and then I'll give you every single prop
that I like out of those games. As far as
how I record my record for the whole season, it's
every single pick against the side, the totals I give
out and every prop, and we count those all as one.

(04:20):
And oh, if I give out a two unit one,
we count that as two wins. And if I give
out a ladder play, and what I mean by ladder
is like Isaiah, I gave out Pachecko yesterday. I liked
his receiving yards. And if I say mini ladder, that
means two three legs, so he was over under fourteen
and a half receiving yards. I said, I like it

(04:42):
for two units and a mini ladder. So what does
that mean. Let's say I have forty bucks that I
want to bet on Pachecko receiving yards. Okay, so I'll
put I'll put twenty five on him to go over
fourteen and a half yards, and then with that other fifteen,
I'll put ten bucks on him to go over twenty

(05:04):
five and five bucks for him to go over thirty five.
And all you have to do is hit the first
leg and you're gonna make money. And if you hit
the first two, you're gonna make a lot, and if
you hit all three, you're gonna be swimming in it.
Like if you would have done that with Isaiah Likely,
and this is when I say full ladder man. You
could have gone Likely all the way up to one

(05:25):
hundred yards and that would have that would have paid
like fifteen to one, which I liked the Likely over
sixteen and a half. But I just didn't ladder it,
which I mean obviously it would be would have been nice.
But when I say ladder two. It's just it's all
about finding. Like the reason I like Likely is because
he had really come on last year, but Mark Andrew's
coming back, so the books and people are unsure of

(05:46):
his usage, but he has the talent to do that.
But Checko p Ryan was slightly involved in the game
as the pass catching guy. But I had heard a
lot of reports about pa Checko trying to improve his
receiving and with the numbers so low, like that first
one he had, he got twenty yards on his first
catch and he dropped a pass along the sideline, he

(06:07):
would have been all the way up to fifty. So
I just especially I really like NFL Week one, not
necessarily for the sides, because these side bets have been
up for six months, so they're pretty tight and hard
to bet. But as far as the props goes, there's
just so many unknowns when it comes to rookies or
usage or new quarterbacks, new guys in new situations that

(06:27):
we don't know how they're gonna utilize them. And I
think you can really take advantage of that in certain things.
So we're gonna I'm gonna give out I don't know,
twenty something props that I like as we go along,
and we'll get into this kind of you know, rapid
fire as we go all right, So first off, I'm
just gonna name off all of the teaser legs that

(06:48):
I like, and I round robin all of these. So
I have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, seven
teaser sides I like, and then three totals that I
will also tease. Okay, So first off, then, and then
we'll go through each game. Green Bay plus eight and
a half, I just don't see them losing by more

(07:10):
than double digits. I think that they can win this
game outright, So we're gonna move that up and we're
just gonna pair them all. So instead of like putting
green Bay eight and a half and the Bills down
to money line and putting forty bucks on it, if
I'm gonna put forty dollars on green Bay plus eight
and a half, I'm just gonna put five on them
and pair it with the Colts, the Bills and all
of these different sides and just kind of have it

(07:32):
be a round robin. So green Bay eight and a half,
Colts up to eight and a half at home, this
line is Fishy plus two and a half. I think
they're gonna be able to run the ball. I don't
think they're gonna lose by more than one score at home,
just gonna drop the Bills down to a money line,
so all they have to do is win at home.
Tightens up to ten and a half. On the road
against the Bears, it's three and a half, four and

(07:54):
a half. Now, I like them up to ten and
a half. Panthers up to ten and a half against
the Saints, the Jets up to ten and a half
at the forty nine, Ers, North Dakota up to ten
and a half at home taking on the grizz And
then the three totals i'm gonna move down are the
Jags down to forty one and a half against the Dolphins,

(08:14):
the Packers Eagles game down to forty one and a half,
and Arizona Buffalo down to forty one and a half.
I think we see a lot of points in all
of those, and so those are ten different legs. I'm
gonna kind of just pick and choose. And what you
can do is, like I give you ten, maybe just
pick five or six that you like and just round
robin and bet those things all together, or you can

(08:36):
parlay even more. You could parlay however, many of those
together that you want to get a little bit better odds.
But I just like, I like all of those. All right,
let's dive into each game. We do have a rain
maker on the Packers Eagles game. Like I said, I like,
I'm going Packers plus two and a half. You can
also just take a money line if you if you like.
I also kind of like the over. But like I said,

(08:58):
we're just gonna bring that instead of forty nine and
a half just because man's that's one bad drive that
stalls in the red zone. It could be hard to
get to fifty points. I feel pretty comfortable they're gonna
get forty two. So I'm just gonna pull that down
to forty one and a half and pair it with
let's just say North Dakota plus ten and a half
at home against Montana. As far as props go, we
do have a rain maker, special rain maker with a

(09:20):
standalone We're going Jordan Love over two hundred and fifty
three and a half passing yards. We're gonna pair that
with Christian Watson over thirty nine and a half yards.
All reports say that his hamstring is healthy, he's looking
a lot better. I know that there's a lot of
pass catching options for green Bay, which is a little scary,
but I just think this number is really low and

(09:40):
he could get this in one big pass and then
we're gonna go with Saquon Barkley over sixty seven and
a half rushing yards. I think Philly is still gonna
run the ball a lot. They could play off of that.
They established the run. That's kind of how their offense
is set up, and I think they're gonna want to
show off the shiny new toy in Saquon, and the
green Bay rushing defense was not very good last year,

(10:03):
so I think that he can get to sixty eight
yards on the ground. So those are what we're rolling
with for that game. I also think you could go
say quantit anytime touchdown at plus one hundred and Luke
Musgrave over twenty six and a half yards the tight
end for green Bay as well. But we're just gonna
roll with the three that I gave you, all right,

(10:26):
rapid fire next up. Oh, and I do have some notes.
It's hard to do so much researcherout the week, so
I have a couple overarching things in Week one underdogs
the last ten years ninety and sixty seven against the spread,
and usually unders hit more than overs as well, so
ninety and sixty seven to underdogs. Okay, in the Green

(10:49):
Bay game. Here are a couple notes. The Packers twenty
two to ten as underdogs under Lafloor and ten and
three against the spread in the first three weeks of
the sea and so the Floor's teams come out ready
to roll. That's one of the reasons why I like them. Okay,
Titans at the Bears plus three and a half are
the Titans. We're gonna go. I'm gonna take the Titans

(11:12):
with the points. We all know the stat I mean,
rookie quarterbacks have really struggled. Rookie let's find to hear
rookie road quarterbacks especially not so hot but at home.
Let me find it. I got a bunch of notes here.
Road rookie quarterbacks, so this will apply are twelve and

(11:34):
thirteen against the spread in week one. As far as
Titans Bears, here's an interesting subset of numbers. And I
listen to a bunch of podcasts, I do a bunch
of research with articles. This is one of the reasons
why I do this podcast. Like, I'm not saying that
I'm the expert coming up with all of this information,
but I believe that I am very good at I

(11:59):
believe that I am very good at sor. I had
a little hiccup there with the recording at taking in
all this information and being able to one decipher it
and be know how to bet it in a portfolio.
And so I think that what a lot of people
struggle with is they have all this information, they have
all these bets. They like they have one hundred dollars.

(12:20):
They're just not sure how to deploy that one hundred dollars,
how to divvy it up among all their bets. They
want to do parlays, they want to do this, they
want to do that, and they're not sure how to
like distribute the funds. If you have questions with that,
please reach out to me. I love helping people. I
love going over this and it's because it's from trial
and error. Right Like with these ladder bets, I used
to put, you know, five bucks on the first one,

(12:42):
five on the second, five on the third, and distribute evenly.
And I would hit the first two and then I'm like,
dang it, I ended up like losing money or like
just be coming out even because I got Isaiah Pacheco
over fifteen and over twenty five, but then he was
two yards short of thirty five, and I also bet four,
and so I ended up losing or like breaking even

(13:03):
even though directionally it was the correct bet. But it's
just because I wasn't putting enough money on the first
two rungs of the ladder, and so you have to
put in I think, like seventy five percent of your
money on the on the lowest tier and then spread
it out. And then once you learn those things and
how to distribute that money, then that's when you actually
start making money. Here's an interesting stat So when it's

(13:27):
a non playoff team versus a non playoff team and
from the year before, and they're favored by three or more,
so the Bears didn't make the playoffs, the Titans didn't
make the playoffs, Bears are favored by three and more.
That favored is five and fourteen ats Okay, So it's
basically saying that, like, neither team was good last year,

(13:47):
We're not sure how good they are this year, but
they're favored by three and a half. Why is that
and then they end up not covering. I think that
the Bears could be good this year, but winning by
margin in the first game for Caleb Williams, I think
Chicago can win by three, and that's why I'm gonna
take Tennessee three and a half if I have to
pick a side. But like I said, I'm moving Tennessee

(14:08):
up to ten and a half. I really don't see
the Bears winning by double digits, so that's what we're
doing for that one. I don't think I had any
props in this one. Not sure about how the distribution
is going to be at the running back position for Tennessee. Actually,

(14:28):
let's go Levis over to earned thirty one passing yards.
I think that they're gonna pass the ball a lot
with the new new coordinator and the weapons. So I
did write down Levis over two earned thirty one passing yards.
All right, Panthers at Saints, We're taking Carolina plus three
and a half New Orleans is I just don't like
the coach quarterback combination. Here's a couple of stats for

(14:51):
you in this one. All right, The Saints are two
and eight in Week one against spread over the last
ten years, Derek Carr as a short favorite, so a
favorite by four points or less ten and twenty six
as a quarterback against the spread. That is awful. That
just shows whenever he's favored by a little bit and

(15:12):
they expect him to make the plays to do it,
he just can't get it done. So we're going Carolina
over three and a half. And for the prop for
this one, we are going Adam Thielen over thirty eight
and a half receiving yards. Him and Bryce Young really
had a rapport last year. The reason this number is
so down is well, one, nobody likes Adam Thlen he's older,
and they brought in Deontae Johnson who's going to be

(15:34):
the number one. But I still think that that rapport
with Adam Thielen and the fact that Jonathan Brooks, the
running back of Carolina, is hurt. Chuba Hubbard is going
to be in there, but he's not a dynamic runner.
I think that they're going to be able to throw
the ball in. They're not going to be like a
chunk yardage team, but I think they're gonna be a
short passing attack, kind of like what Dave knallis, who's

(15:56):
now the running the show over there did with Baker
Mayfield Tampa. So I think they're gonna do a lot
of short passes, and that's written Adam Deelen's wheelhouse. He's
good route learner and I think he's gonna get forty
yards in this one. Next up, we got the Pats
at the Bengals. I already said we're moving the Bengals
down to minus two and a half as one of
the Uh did I miss that one on here? Oh?

(16:18):
I must not have wrote that down. Okay, Bengals minus
two and a half in one of the teaser legs. Man,
I don't know how I did write that down. And
I'm gonna go minus eight and a half with the
Bengals if I had to pick a side, staying away
from that normally, but with my force pick that I'm
saying that we're having to do. That's what I'm gonna do. Obviously,

(16:39):
a lot of question marks who's playing for Cincinnati, So
I don't really have much on this game except for
I did take Cincinnati down to two and a half
and paired it with a bunch of things. One prop
that if you're you know, had to throw a prop
on this one. I think Jalen Polk over thirty one
receiving yards for the Patriots gonna be one of the starters.
He's had a really good camp and I just think

(17:02):
they're gonna be down and throwing it, and he can
get thirty one yards in garbage time if they're gonna
be down double digits. Next up, Vikings minus one and
a half. Favorites on the road taking on the New
York Giants. Give me the Giants plus one and a half.
Sam Donald going back to his old stomping grounds where
he has nightmares. I just don't think Sam donald'sould be

(17:24):
favored on the road. And we're going with Milik Neighbors
over sixty and a half receiving yards. I think Malik
Neighbors is the best receiver. I think he might be
better than Marvin Harrison. I think they are going to
feed him the rock. This might be worth laddering a
little bit. I think I could easily see him going
for one hundred yards in this game. And I think

(17:46):
they're gonna show off what he can do. And I
like Daniel Jones over two hundred and eleven and a
half passing yards. Minnesota's defense more susceptible to the pass
than the run. They like to blitz a lot with
Brian Flores leaving one on one situation. So I don't know.
I think Daniel Jones and they don't have Saquan anymore,
so I think everyone doesn't like Daniel Jones, so he
gets a bad rap, and so that number is super

(18:08):
super low. So I'm gonna take that. Jacksonville Jaguars taking
on the Miami Dolphins Jags three and a half point
underdogs over under forty nine and a half. I like
the over. We're gonna circle over forty nine and a half.
We already said that we're pulling it down as well.
I have some notes on this game. Let me find it.
The Dolphins fifteen and three against the spread when it's

(18:33):
seventy five degrees plus. Now a lot of people are
gonna be like, well, the Jags are a Florida team
as well, but they're gonna be it's notorious that Miami's
gonna be in the shade. The Jags are not. This
is why I kind of like the offenses. I think
the defense will get tired more than the offense. I
know a lot of I don't know. There's doing a

(18:53):
lot of listening. It sounds like a lot of people
are high on the Jags. I think they'll be better too,
but I still think Miami and they're down the Dolphins.
I just think Miami in the beginning of the year
is a train that I do not want to go
in the middle of. And I like quite a few
props in this one, because, like I said, I like
the offense. We're going devon a Chan over twenty two
receiving yards. I think they're gonna really use him a

(19:14):
lot with mostert and they're gonna be using him as
a receiver. There's no Odell Beckham. They have another rookie
who would be the slot receiver. They used a Chan
in the slot a lot, and man, he can get
one screen pass and take this to the house. Might
be worth a little mini ladder, kind of like the
Pacheco with his receiving yards. Really like Trevor Lawrence over
two hundred and fifty two and a half passing yards.
Probably gonna put this one in the rain maker prop.

(19:35):
I just think there's gonna be a lot of offense.
I think a lot of whispers coming out of Jags campus.
They're gonna throw the ball a lot, and I think
it's gonna be a lot of points. So I think
he's gonna be throwing a lot. And so with that,
Evan Ingram over forty four and a half receiving yards.
He's kind of the security blanket for Lawrence. I think
Brian Thomas might you know, be a fun bet as well,
but his number was around the same and it was

(19:57):
pretty high for one of the rookies, considering we haven't
seen it. So I stayed away from that, and we're
going moster at over forty five and a half rushing yards,
He's still gonna get a lot of carries, and I
think he can get over that number, all right. Moving on,
Arizona Cardinals six and a half point underdogs on the road,
taking on the Buffalo Bills. A lot of a lot

(20:17):
of Cardinals love lately. I'm kind of going contrarying. I'm
going with the Bills minus six and a half here.
I just I just think they could win by a touchdown.
I think a lot of people are down on the Bills,
and I think the Bills are gonna be just fine.
I am a little bit concerned though, This is why
I'm just taking the Bills money line. I'm taking the

(20:38):
six and a half down to just to win, and
I'm taking the over forty seven and a half, which
I like. I'm gonna circle over forty seven a half
as an official play, but I'm also pairing that over
forty one with like the Jags Dolphins over forty one,
but Buffalo eight and sixteen and one when Allen is
a big favorite, not great, and Murray is eleven and
five against the when they're six or more point underdogs.

(21:02):
So those trends obviously picked say that Arizona this could
be definitely a backdoor cover. But I'm just gonna be
a little contrarian and take the Bills minus six and
a half. As far as props in this one, write
any down. We have Cook over sixty four sixty three

(21:22):
and a half rushing yards, and I'm going Kyler over
two hundred and thirty and a half passing yards. I
just think that there's a chance that they're down and
they're gonna huck it, and they have the talent with
McBride and Harrison and company to do that. So that's
where we're going with their Pittsburgh Steelers three and a
half point underdogs on the road taking on the Atlanta Falcons.

(21:43):
I'm gonna take the Steelers. It's ugly with the three
and a half. This is just a classic, Like Steelers
are an organization that I just feel like they end
up on the right side of things more often, and
Atlanta always is an organization that ends up on the
wrong side of things more often than not. Right. So

(22:04):
if I'm getting a field goal plus the hook, just
give me the Steelers. I think their defensive units probably
the best unit out of all four that's gonna be
on the field. Don't love this one, but if I
had to force pick it would be that I had
two props in this one. George Pickens over fifty three
and a half yards. I just think he's gonna be

(22:25):
the go to guy. I think he's super talented. I
think he can get that, and we're going Darnell Mooney
over thirty five and a half receiving yards. Kind of
just like with Kyle Pitts a little bit. I mean,
he said he's fine, but I just think Mooney is
the opposite receiver of London's kind of forgotten, like he's
actually pretty good. He's just been on the Bears with
a bad quarterback for so long, so I think he
can get thirty seven yards. Next up, we got the

(22:47):
Houston Texans taking on the Indianapolis Colts. Texans favored by
minus two and a half. Okay, here's a little quick lesson, right.
The Texans are minus two and a half and it's
minus one thirty. The Colts are plus two and a
half at plus one oh two. Okay, so I'm not
so what I'm gonna do is just move it up
to Colts plus three and a half. I'd rather play

(23:08):
Colts plus three and a half at minus one thirty
minus one twenty five, then Texans minus two and a
half minus one thirty. Right, So you sports bet doesn't
have whole numbers, right, So they're never gonna be minus three.
It's always zero point five because they don't do pushes.
It's kind of weird, but that's what they do. So
I rather pay the juice for the Colts with three

(23:29):
and the hook at home, then pay for the juice
for the Texans to win by three on the road,
if that makes sense. Right. But how I'm gonna actually
bet this is just move the Colts up to eight
and a half. If I'm getting this is just a
fishy line, right. Everyone's on Houston, they're on the road,
and Houston's weakness on defense has been their rushing d
and that's what Indianapolis does. I think this is gonna be.

(23:52):
This has the potential to have a lot of points
as well. Wouldn't mind taking this down to forty two
and a half. Actually, let's do it. Let's just add
it into the two. We'll go Houston down to forty
one and a half. Always like to get under that
forty one and a half, get that extra, you know, point,
So let's do that. Let's just push it down and

(24:13):
add that in the total. As far as props go,
I kind of didn't really like. There was not a
lot of numbers in this one that I liked. The
numbers were all pretty high for Stroud and Company, and
Anthony Richardson is just who knows. We do have a Taylor. Richardson,
one of our reporters, big Colts guy. He said that

(24:34):
over seventy three and a half rushing yards for Jonathan
Taylor was a lock. He thinks he's gonna get a hundred,
So why don't we throw that in there for t
rich we'll go JT over seventy three and a half yards.
Other than that, the passing attack for Indy, I don't know.
It just kind of more of a wait and see approach. Okay,
Next up, Las Vegas Raiders taking on my Chargers. Chargers

(24:56):
three and a half point favorites. Here's another thing. The
Raiders are plus the three and a half minus one
thirty five, Chargers minus three and a half plus one
oh five. I'd rather give me the Chargers minus two
and a half at that minus one thirty five mark
in the alternate spread rather than the Raiders getting the
three in the hook revenge spot. The Raiders put up
a ton of points against Chargers. Obviously we got Hurt
Harbaugh coming in, so I'm gonna be on the Charger

(25:18):
side of this. I did kind of like a lot
of props in this one. I mean, obviously this is
my team, but we're going Herbert over two hundred and
twenty six and a half passing yards. It's just such
a low number. I know they're gonna want to run
the ball a lot, but it's Herbert Man, and I
think you can get two hundred and twenty eight passing yards.
I'm also gonna go Minshew over two hundred and seventeen
passing yards. Chargers defense the secondary not very good, and

(25:42):
I'm gonna go Dobbins JK Dobbins. So the Chargers said
they're gonna it's gonna be a fifty to fifty split
between Gus Edwards and JK. Dobbins, and then they're gonna
ride the hot hand from there. But Gus Edwards is
not gonna be the third down back. He's not a
receiving back. That's gonna be Dobbins. Herbert likes to throw
the running backs. They don't have a ton of options
with wide receivers. So I'm gonna go the combo. Instead

(26:04):
of taking Dobbins over thirty six and a half rushing yards,
We're gonna just take his combo over forty six and
a half. That way, if it's a pass or a run,
I don't care. I just want yards from Dobbins, and
he's been explosive in camp from all reports. So we're
going Dobbins over forty six and a half combination, and
we're going Lad mccaukey over thirty eight and a half
receiving yards. DJ Chark has not practiced this week with

(26:27):
a hip injury. I think mccaucky's the most explosive dynamic
receiver thirty nine yards. I think he could easily get that,
and it might be worth a little mini ladder sprinkle
as well. All Right, gonna try and speed this up here.
Broncos plus five and a half on the road taking
on the Seattle Seahawks. We're going Seattle. The Seahawks minus
five and a half. I just think at home, rookie

(26:48):
quarterback on the road. Give me Seattle props. Wise, I
didn't have much in this one. We're just gonna pass.
I just don't have a feel feel for these teams yet.
Dallas Cowboys plus two and a half on the road
against the Cleveland Browns. Give me the Browns minus two
and a half. I just think the the Browns at

(27:10):
home are different than the Browns on the road, and
the Cowboys on the road are different than the Cowboys
at home. Browns eight and one at home last year.
Dak owen seven against the spread the last seven games
as a dog. Wow, that's that's quite the trend. Give
me the Browns minus two and a half. Let's see
for props. Wise, I did write down Deshaun Watson over

(27:33):
twenty and a half rushing yards. They've had some injuries
on the O line. Dallas's D line gets after it,
so I think Watson could gonna have to scramble a
lot on this one and give me Tolbert over twenty
and a half receiving yards for Dallas. Lamb has been out.
I mean, obviously he's gonna play a lot, but Tolbert's
kind of emerged as kind of like the number two guy.

(27:53):
So I think you can get twenty one yards. All right,
Commanders on the road taking on the Bucks. The line
is three and a half in favorite of the Bucks,
and we are taking the Bucks minus three and a
half and going over forty two and a half. Let
me find this stat here. So new coach and new
quarterback and new offensive coordinator, when you have all three
of those on a team, which is what the cases

(28:15):
with Washington, those teams are four and eleven against the spread,
And when you have a new green dot on defense,
so the guy that has the communications in the helmet
and a new defensive coordinator, which is the case also
also with Washington, those teams are fourteen and twenty seven
against the spread. Over the last However, many you know

(28:37):
games that is and so, and rookie quarterbacks on the
road are under five hundred as well. I think people
are a little bit downer down on the Bucks, but
I think that they can win here at home against
a rookie quarterback. This gonna be fun to watch, though.
I'm good curious to see how Jayden Daniels does. But
give me Tampa Bay Rams on the road taking on
the Lions. This was three and a half. I bet

(28:58):
it at three and a half. It's now up to
four and half. But give me the Lions. I think
they're gonna blow them out. Just really like the Lions
this year, really high on them. Here's a couple. Give
me the Lions are gonna be their rush d is
gonna be really really good. They were like one of
the best in the league last year, and they add
a DJ Reader who's one of the best run stuffers
in the league. So give me Stafford over two hundred
and seventy three and a half passing yards because I

(29:19):
just don't think they're gonna be able to run the ball.
Give me Jamison Williams over forty one and a half
combined yards. We're doing this because many people remember this
is one of my legs that hit in the rain
maker last year against the Niners in the playoffs, his
receiving and rushing total. His receiving yardage was like thirty
nine and a half yards, and then his combo is

(29:40):
like forty one and a half and he took a
reverse for like forty yards for a touchdown to start
that game. He's fast. They like to get him a
carrier to a game, so might as well just take
the combined yards and give me DeMarcus Robinson over twenty
six receiving yards. He's really emerged as kind of like
the third guy in that offense, and Pookah's been a
little bit banged up, and I just think that they're

(30:02):
gonna have to throw it a lot, and that's twenty
six yards. It's nothing. I really like that one as well.
And the Lions minus four and a half. Last one,
Jets on the road taking on the Niners. Give me
the give me the Jets plus four and a half.
I think the Niners Super Bowl hangover. They've obviously yuk
was holding out Willing, he was holding out cmc is.
I just think they're catching them at the right time,

(30:23):
and I didn't like a lot of props in this one,
so stayed away from there, but like the Jets, and
I also of course moved the Jets up to plus
ten and a half as well. Okay, there you have it.
We have started out seven and one this year with
my picks podcast and social media wise, so make sure
you're giving me a follow. Man. I have really done

(30:44):
well in the NFL over the years. I'm gonna i'll
count my record for the all the teaser legs as well.
We've got like twelve, so I'm gonna round robin those.
We'll just mark them down per per leg because I
mean that's ends up being like fifty different comedy or whatever.
So good luck to everybody. If you have any questions,
please hit me up and be on the lookout for those.

(31:06):
A couple of rainmakers over the weekend.