BRAWL BETS, NFL WEEK 12!

Shaun Rainey breaks down the Brawl of the Wild handing out his favorite bets as well as the week 12 NFL slate.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You rent that, young nah No, I own it. That's
how I feel about this weekend. Pay him, paid that,
me and his money. Joy it wild, last gambling gods,
fickle bunch, oh so easily offended. Welcome into the Make
It Rainy Podcast. I'm your host, Sean Rainey, sponsored by

(00:21):
sports Bet Montana and folks, It's brawl week. We are
almost there. We've been talking all week long. I was
gonna do a post earlier this week about going into everything,
but decided to wait until Friday, get all the information
and wait because I really wanted to wait for the

(00:42):
player props to come out for this game. So I'm
gonna dive into the brawls wild, go over my NFL
plays quickly and hopefully give you guys some winners. So
this game opened up cats minus one and a half
and then it quickly moved to two and a half
and it's kind of just at there surprisingly all week long.

(01:03):
It is kind of cool. Sports bet Montana has taken
down the juice and so you can bet this game
at two and a half minus one oh two both ways,
which is pretty interesting. Now, this is what I'm gonna
go and talk about here. First off, Montana State has
covered in seven straight games. They are eight and three

(01:28):
ats so far this season. They start out one and
three and they have covered seven straight by an average
of seven point five points per game, So they are
you know what that means is they're a seven. They're
seven points better on the year than expected. And the
Montana Grizzlies are five and six against the spread all

(01:48):
year minus one point five, so they are you know,
are negative against the the spread, but not by a
considerable margin. And then both teams are six and five
to the over so far this season. This one, this
game is hard for me because when I'm handicapping a game,

(02:12):
I always like to start which which team is better
in the trenches and which team has a better defense,
and that's Montana State. But it is in Missoula. So
it's like, man, I think Montana State is the slight
better team. I think getting them under a field goal
and backing the team that is better on the offensive line,
better on the defensive line, has the better defense. I mean,

(02:34):
everything that you handicap about football tells you that Montana
State is the right side. But it is the rivalry
and it is in Missoula, So how much does Washington
Rizzley factor into it, and all the emotions of everything.
That is something that is very hard to handicap. And
it's just gonna come down to ultimately your own gut
feeling in which side you want to go here. Also,

(02:55):
you know, because this is the rivalry, I think a
lot of people are just gonna bet this game based
on their emotions. Right, you are either gonna be the
type of better where you're a Cats or a grizz
fan and you can only bet on your team, and
you're gonna bet on that team regardless. And then there's
some that like to hedge their happiness that are gonna
bet on the other side regardless, just so if your
favorite team loses, at least you win some money. And

(03:16):
then there's maybe gonna be a small ten percent of
you that are just gonna bet this game based on
who you think is going to win. And so that's
the interesting diconomy that we have when it's such a
rivalry game like this. And like I said, I think
Montana State is slightly better. I think getting them under
a field goal is a good value play. The question

(03:37):
is Washington Grizzly Stadium. So I don't I'm not sure.
I think I would lean Cats, but I would not
be surprised if the Grizz won at all. So but
my official play and pick on the on the podcast
is we are gonna take Montana State minus two and
a half and I'm gonna take the under sixty and

(03:58):
a half. I think that Montana States strength on defense,
I think they're gonna be able to slow down the
Griz enough. And I think that both of these teams
are gonna buckle down in the red zone. And I
just don't see both teams getting to thirty. And while
we could have maybe one team getting in the high

(04:20):
thirties or forties, I just I don't know. I just
see this game being a thirty twenty eight, thirty twenty seven,
twenty eight, twenty four, twenty seven to twenty four type
of game and both teams getting over thirty and clearing
that hard for me to see. So I'm gonna take
the under sixty. I think my favorite bet of this though,

(04:42):
is Justin Lampson, Montana State quarterback over one hundred and
ninety passing yards. I was kind of a little shocked
by this number because won the weather's gonna be perfect
and two you know, Montana has the worst pass defense
of the Big SCI Conference. They're giving up about two
hundred and seventy passing yards a game. Lampson's averaging about

(05:03):
two hundred a game, but a lot of that is
because he's only averaging two hundred, but that's because they're
up by three four touchdowns in most of their Big
Sky Conference games, and then they're just kind of running
the football out like if this this game is, you know,
under a three point margin, so we're expecting a close,

(05:24):
competitive game. So lamps is gonna be forced to throw
all the way into the fourth quarter in this one
based on the spread, and I think he's gonna clear
one ninety easily. Three hundred passing yards plus nine hundred
we're at a sprinkle. I'm this is a ladder play
Lampson all the way up to three hundred yards. You
could also pair both quarterbacks to throw for two hundred
and fifty yards is plus five point fifty. I think

(05:46):
that's intriguing as well. But yeah, I mean lambson up
to three hundred. I mean, we've seen the Eastern Washing
true freshman making his very first career start in Washington,
Grizzley stadium through for four point fifty. The sack State
quarterback hadn't thrown for a lot. He threw for a
bunch like, Oh, we've seen all these teams rack up yardage.

(06:07):
And the thing about this bet too is you could
almost correlate this into a you know, Grizz win lamps
and over right, if the Grizz get up and they're
having to throw to try and come back, you know,
I almost kind of like that too. But I just
think that he's gonna clear one ninety either way. I

(06:27):
also think Taco dollar at sixty yards is intriguing. I
don't like a ton on the Griz side of things
because Eli Gellman and war of them are both well
over one hundred is their yardage total, and I just
that's just it's hard for me to bet anything over
one hundred yards. I do think if there's any Grizz props,

(06:48):
I think maybe an ayat anytime touchdown at minus one
twenty five is a good look, and and maybe iyat
first touchdown of the game at ten to one odds.
You know, the the first touchdown scores are always fun,
but these anytime touchdown numbers I would stay away from,
Like Adam Jones anytime touchdown minus five hundred. You like

(07:09):
Gillman minus six twenty five to score a touchdown. I
mean's he's minus one to eleven to score two touchdowns, Like, yeah,
it's just uh, those are tough. So the first touchdown
scores though, it was kind of fun and I think
iyattit ten to one odds is intriguing as far as
any of the If my if I had to do
one first touchdown bet that I think has decent value,

(07:30):
I'd go with Ayat there. And then defensively, I think
Peyton Wing six plus total tackles. It's been over this
in three out of the last four and two consecutive,
and with Montana State running the football, I expect Wing
to be in a lot, So I think Wing can
get six plus total tackles and that's solo an assistive,
and Montana likes to give a lot of assisted tackles

(07:53):
in their in their stat sheets. So I really like
that play as well. Okay, that is your Cat Griz
stuff gonna be exciting. Get I just hope that it's
a good competitive game into the fourth quarter because we
haven't had one for a while and that makes things
really really tough as far as u NFL goes. I

(08:16):
have three rain makers out this week. We hit on Monday,
we were close to hitting on Thursday night. I was
really mad because I we I take, I pick every
single game against the spread, and I took Texans plus
six and a half. And then in this in the
stupid rain maker, I was like, do I take Texans
and move them out to seven and a half or

(08:36):
Bills to two and a half, and I I was
dombin did Bills when I leaned to like, I took
Texans plus six and a half. I just need to
just stick with my conviction and just make gut at
plus seven and a half and just go with that
side of things. But I don't have a ton this week.
I'm I'm there's a lot of props that and just

(09:00):
games that I just don't there's a lot of guys
injured or the spreads are huge, and I don't like betting.
I don't like betting props when the spreads are so
huge because when these games get out of hand, the
game script just gets all wonky and it's hard to
predict props in my opinion. But we do have eight
or so that I really like, and so I'm just

(09:22):
gonna go through my favorite props of the week first
and those are in my rain Makers, and then we'll
go from there game by game. First one, I really
like Jonathan Taylor over two and a half receptions on
pace to shatter his receiving yards record this year. This
is how you can attack the Kansas City defense, and
I think they're gonna have to get Jonathan Taylor involved

(09:45):
in the passing game. So really like that one. Kenneth
Walker over fourteen and a half carries. I wanted Ken
Walker stuff because I think they're gonna be up big,
but I shied away from the yards, went with the
volume of the carries. Also like him anytime touchdown at
plus money, which is gonna be in I do have
a touchdown parlay as well. And then Hunter Henry over

(10:08):
three and a half receptions at plus money. The Bengals
are historically like the worst team against tight ends like ever,
and so I think Hunter Henry is gonna get involved
here and get He'll end up with like five catches
for sixty yards and clear his receptions and yardage prop.
Rain Maker number two t Higgins over sixty nine and
a half receiving yards. Pretty simple, No Jamar Chase, and

(10:33):
they're gonna find Higgins. He's averaging like one hundred yards
a game when Chase is out, and they're gonna be down,
I think in this game against the Pats, who are
gonna score some points, so even if it's in garbage time,
I think he clears this. And then Colston Loveland over
twenty eight and a half receiving yards. The Steelers thirtieth
in the league against tight ends, and the Bears have
been getting Loveland involved, and I think they're gonna have

(10:56):
to throw it a little bit more than they've been
running it as of late. I was Kelsey over fifty
one and a half receiving yards. Quietly, he has like
the second most receiving yards by any tight end in
the last month plus. And I think the Colts are
The Colts are pretty good on the outside with Sauce
Gardner and tarvarious award and stuff, So I think the

(11:19):
they're gonna work Kelsey over the middle. And this is
a you know, everyone always says like, hey, you want
to bet Kelsey in the playoffs and for the big
games and stuff, Well, this is a have to have
a game for Kansas City. So I like this Kelsey
bet a lot, and then uh oh, I think I
forgot the last leg of my Rainmaker number one. But
basically the last leg of Raymaker one and ray Maker

(11:41):
two are both Monday night football plays, and I love, love,
love Bryce Young over two hundred and six passing yards
against the Niners and Tenoro McMillan over sixty five and
a half receiving yards. Look, I think I don't think
the books are adjusting it this much. I gave you
guys Brisset last week and I laddered it and he
was at like two hundred and forty yards and he

(12:02):
threw for four fifty. The Niners defense bad, his real
their pass defense is really really bad, and it's going
to be a defense to attack, and they don't have
a pass rush to get to the passer either. And
so I think Bryce Young is gonna, you know, throw
for two to seventy five in this one and clear
two oh six easily. So I like him and McMillan
is the last legs of the rain Maker. And again,

(12:24):
if all three of these legs, these Rainmakers are like
thirteen to one, fourteen to one, if the three legs
hit and you're going into Monday night football, just head
you out of it. If you got ten to win
one hundred and thirty five bucks, like, just put and
you're sitting there, Just put twenty on the other side
and boom, you're guaranteed at least that you you know,
made ten bucks. Simple. So there you go. Those are

(12:48):
my props. I don't have a ton of sides this week.
I just I hate the board. I'm trying to think
if there's if there's any other props on here. I
do like Chase Brown over thirty and a half receiving yards,
but I decided to go with te Higgins instead. But
you can't run on the Patriots. And again, I think
Brown's gonna get a lot of dump off so I
like that. And then my touchdown parlay. We've got Ken Walker,

(13:12):
David Montgomery. I think he's gonna get one against the
Giants at home, Travis Kelcey and George Kittle, So there
you go. As far as any straight I don't really
like any straight plays this week. I do like the
Pats to win big, so I think we can money

(13:35):
line the Pats and pair them with I do think
that the Chiefs are gonna win at home, but I'm
gonna stay away from that one. Maybe go Packers. Packers
at home against the Vikings, although I do think that
game is gonna be a little bit closer. But I
just do not see JJ McCarthy going on the road.
That game is just and they give me the Lions
to cover. I think they're undefeated against the spread coming

(13:59):
off of a loss in the Dan I space it
on his name right now and their coach's tenures, so
Lion's very good off of a loss. So you know,
I think this is a you know, pairs of money
line type of games this week. Give me the Saints.

(14:20):
I think the Saints beat the Falcons at home. I
don't think the Falcons are very good, and I think
with Drake Lennon out, they are gonna be pretty pretty bad.
And then I kind of lean under in that the
Philly Dallas game, forty seven and a half, you can
move that up to forty eight and a half minus
one twenty. I would do that instead. I just think
the Eagles are going to be a straight under team
moving forward for a while. But yeah, no strong leans

(14:44):
and all these they're all there's thirteen fourteen and a
half's on the board. I just I just don't like it.
So those are the rain makers, those are the brawl
of the wild bets. I hope you everyone has a
great weekend win some squares has a good time and
h yeah, have a good way