MLB Futures 2025!

Shaun Rainey breaks down some World series and MLB divisional bets with just over 40 games to go in the baseball regular season. Podcast sponsored by Sports Bet Montana

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Do you rent that young Nah? No, I own it.
That's how I feel about this weekend. Pay him, pay
that me and his money joy it. While last gambling
gods fickle bunch, oh so easily offended. Well, get him
into the Make It Rainy Podcast. I'm your host, Sean Raindy,

(00:21):
sponsored by sports Bet Montana. It's been a while. Welcome
back everyone. We're gearing up for football season. Exciting times.
Currently recording this at four o'clock Friday afternoon. They just
caught the Anaconda shooter, so things are a little crazy
in the newsroom. Figured i'd escape into the edit bay

(00:42):
and record a little podcast for you. A couple housekeeping notes. Okay,
So we're gonna be going once a week on the
pod for the next well through all the way through
football season into basketball season. As we have, you know,
partnered up again with sports bet Montana. We're going to
be having a lot of rain Maker boo and plays
like that. So very excited about the upcoming future as

(01:04):
far as that goes. Today, we're gonna talk a little
MLB futures, kind of that time of the year where
you know, about forty five games left in the regular season.
I think a good time to kind of look at
some World Series bets, maybe some Division odds, and I'm
kind of gonna break down the numbers as far as
that goes, and then we'll get some NFL and college futures.

(01:27):
We'll also talk some Cats and grizz football as well,
so that's gonna be kind of the format over the
next three weeks, and then of course we'll get into
our regularly scheduled once a week NFL picks, which have
been very good for us over the last oh man,
I think it's been five, six, seven, eight years on
the pod. It's been a while now, so we'll continue

(01:48):
doing that and having a good time. But I want
to talk some Major League Baseball futures. Now, Baseball and
football are kind of my in college basketball are my
main go to sports, and especially when it comes to betting,
and I just wanted to do a little exercise and

(02:12):
look up not only the World Series odds and totals,
but some of the division odds and totals and just
kind of look to see, like what numbers were good
but teams I liked as some long shot bets because
it's always kind of fun, especially in baseball, to throw
just a couple bucks on maybe a long shot baseball
future and toss it in with like a Super Bowl

(02:33):
bet or a Heisman Trophy bet or something like that,
and you put, you know, five bucks to win a
bunch of money and stuff, and it's always kind of
fun to follow along. So I'll have a couple, you know,
pizza bets, beer bets, just you know, two, three, four
or five buck bets that are kind of fun that
I think are of good value and will kind of
go down through the board. So what I did was
I looked at all the odds on sports bet Montana,

(02:56):
calculated the percentages based on those odds, and then I
like to use Fangraphs a lot for a lot of
my baseball research. They do, they have so much information
on there, but they break down their odds for each
team to win the World Series, each team to win
the division they're projected wins the rest of the year,
and I kind of just use that to compare it

(03:16):
to the odds on sports bet Montana. And I'm gonna
use the Dodgers as the first example here, and there's
gonna be kind of a lot of numbers I'm gonna
throw at you, but I'm gonna break it down slowly
with the Dodgers, so hopefully you can get an understanding
of what I'm talking about, and then we'll kind of
go quicker through the rest of the thing, and then
I'll just kind of pick out some of my favorite

(03:37):
bets or the ones that differentiate the most between sports
bet and Fangraphs. So the Dodgers right now, they are
plus two forty to win the World Series. Okay, what
as you know? Some people out there kind of know
what plus two forty is. Some people I still have
to explain it to some of my friends that have
dabbled in it a little bit. But so ten bucks

(03:57):
to win twenty four dollars plus two forty plus two
forty is implied probability that the Dodgers have a twenty
nine percent chance to win the World Series. That's what
you're paying for at those plus two forty odds. Okay,
does that are we falling along? Does that make sense here?
Because if they're plus one hundred odds, then they would be,

(04:21):
you know, fifty percent chance because you're betting fifty to fifty, right.
Fangraphs has the Dodgers at a nineteen point eight percent
chance to win the World Series. This I'm using this
example because this is kind of the widest example. That's
an almost ten percent odds difference. Right, So if FanGraph
says that the Dodgers have a nineteen point eight percent

(04:42):
chance to win the World Series, but you're paying two forty,
which is an implied probability of twenty nine percent, that's
ten percent odds of like attacks that you're paying on
the Dodgers. So it should be more of like a
plus three point fifty plus four hundred for the Dodgers
to win the World Series, not plus two forty. Thus,

(05:03):
plus two forty for the Dodgers is a bad bet
based on those numbers. Now, you can agree or disagree
with the Fangraft's number. I'm just using the Fangraphs percentage
number to show the difference and whether or not I
think it's kind of like a quality bets based on
the numbers, and then you could go from there and
make your own assumptions. Right, Okay, So let's now go

(05:28):
down kind of through the list on some of some
of these and I'll let you know if they're you know, good, bad, indifferent.
I'm gonna go let's stick in the NS. So my
San Diego Padres, I'm just gonna give out the three
my three favorite bets. The Padres are plus fourteen hundred
to win the World Series, and they are one, two, three, four, five, six, eleventh,

(05:52):
the eleventh highest or lowest to win the World Series,
which I think is kind of crazy. So plus fourteen
hundred implies six point six percent chance to win the
World Series. That's what the odds of placing a plus
fourteen hundred dollars bet equal. Okay, so you place a
plus fourteen hundred dollars bet, you're gonna hit that six

(06:15):
point six percent of the time. That's what it implies.
Fangrass has them at a six point four percent chance
to win the World Series. I think that's a little
bit light, but it shows you that what you're paying
for at the plus fourteen hundred is pretty much on
par with what the fangraphs has them as projected to
win the World Series. I think if it's within a

(06:36):
few percentage points, it's a good bet. I like taking
these the teams that are towards the bottom of the
list in baseball that have a very good chance to
go to the playoffs. The potters have a ninety two
point six percent chance to make the playoffs. So if
I'm getting a fourteen to one odds team that I
know is gonna make the playoffs, give me that. In baseball,

(07:00):
because the playoffs are such a crapshoot, we see it
every single year. You really never know once you get
into the playoffs. And there's three things that I look
for when I'm talking about a baseball team that I
think you need to win the World Series. One, you
need two or three good starting pitchers, because you can
really ride those three starting pitchers to a World Series.

(07:24):
We saw the Dodgers do it last year with two
guys and a bullpen. Okay, the Padres are getting Michael
King back this weekend, so they have Michael King, Nick Pavetta,
you darbish, Dylan Cees. So they got four guys that
they can kind of use throughout a deep playoff run.
And they have probably the best bullpen in baseball. And
their lineup is pretty deep too. They don't have necessarily

(07:45):
the power. I do like teams that have a little
bit more slug when it comes to the playoffs, because
you're not gonna be able to string together a bunch
of hits. That is my concern with the Padres is
they don't have like the three run homer potential as
much as some of these other teams. But adding O'Hearn, Loreano,
and Freddy for me, and that the deadline certainly did
help with that. But for me, I think the Padres

(08:07):
should be more in the sixth highest, not the eleventh
highest odds. And I think plus fourteen hundred is a
good bet ninety two percent chance to make the playoffs,
and your odds kind of aligned with fangrafts, so I
think that's a pretty good bet. The other two bets
that I have made as far as long shots go
are yes, I know that there's a lot of fans

(08:28):
here that are Seattle Mariners, fans that are used to
their team always disappointing them and sucking in the playoffs,
kind of like my Padres too. But the Mariners are
plus ten to fifty to win the World Series. That
is an eight point seven percent chance to win the
World Series based on a plus ten to fifty odds,
and their fangrafts is exactly eight point seven percent, so

(08:50):
you're getting equal value on your plus ten to fifty,
So that's a good bet, and they have an eighty
eight point nine percent chance making the playoffs. Okay, they
also have We'll get into division bets later, but I
like the Mariners. They have obviously the starting rotation. They

(09:10):
bolstered the lineup with Suarez and Naylor and now they
have a little bit of slug. They have a good bullpen,
and they have a good starting rotation. It's a team
that I would not want to face in the playoffs.
And now that you added Gino and Naylor, I mean
you have Gino, Randy cal and Julio as big power

(09:30):
dudes that with one or two big swings can change
a playoff game. And then you add their starting pitching
and their bullpen and they're going to be a very
dangerous team in the playoffs. So if I'm getting them
at better than ten to one odds, I like the
Mariners bet. Lastly, the Boston Red Sox plus eighteen hundred

(09:51):
that implies a five zero point two percent chance. Fanografts
has them at a three percent chance, So we're getting
outside of the two percent range here, but they're out
of seventy five percent chance to make the playoffs. And
if I'm getting them at seventy five percent chance to
make the playoffs. I think they're gonna make the playoffs.
They're surging, they're playing better than anyone in the American League,

(10:11):
and they probably have them and the Tigers. The best
pitcher in the American League. Garrett Crochet is an absolute ace,
a guy that's gonna go out there and he could
win every single playoff game that he starts. And if
he's your Game one starter, you got a good chance
to win Game one and get ahead in the in
the series. And then they're getting a few other guys

(10:32):
in their starting rotation that are pitching better. Lucas gi
Alito's pitching well, Brian Bao's pitching well, and they're gonna
kind of throw a lot of different guys at you.
The starting pitching depth is a little bit of a concern.
Their lineup is super deep. It is young. That is
a concern, But the back end of their bullpen has
been good enough. So if I'm getting plus eighteen hundred

(10:53):
on a team that's seventy five to eighty percent chance
to make the playoffs, I think it's a good little
flyer to have in your back pop. And then you know,
depending on how much you put on these. You know,
if you put twenty bucks on each like you can,
then if these all if all of these teams make
the playoffs, you just hope, you know, Mariners or Red
Sox don't play each other in the first round, and

(11:14):
then you can hope that they win the first round
and then hedge against it a little bit as long
as you put enough on it. So that's kind of
where I'm going here as far as World Series picks,
for me, give me the Padres fourteen to one, the
Red Sox eighteen to one, and the Mariners ten fifty
to one odds to win the Soup or the World Series.

(11:36):
Let's see what other bets are not great here, okay,
And it's usually gonna be the teams that are at
the highest odds. So the Tigers Tigers plus eight hundred
to win the World Series. That's an eleven percent implied probability.
Fangrass has them at seven percent, so it's an extra
four percent that you're paying tax on. I do not

(11:58):
like the Cubs. I don't think they have the pitching,
and their implied tax is another two percent off, so
I don't think that that is a good bet the
Blue Jays is rate along lines of a good bet.
They're ten to one to win the World Series nine percent,
and on Fangrafts has them as nine percent chance to win,

(12:20):
so that is technically a good bet. Let's see what
else here is a bad bet. There's some division bets
that are pretty bad that we'll get to in a second.
All right, let's just do that. Let's dive into the
divisions here, because there's three bets on. It's the same
three teams that I was talking about with the World
Series that I like for division bets. Okay, the Mariners

(12:43):
right now are plus one twenty to win the Al West. Okay,
there are one and a half games back of the Astros. Okay,
they have a forty five percent chance to win the
division based on Fangraphs, and plus one twenty equals forty
five percent probability odds. So we're right in line there
on the Mariners. So you're getting good value on the

(13:07):
Mariners for World Series and division bets. And I just
think that they're surging and playing pretty good right now.
As far as the Astros go, they are minus won
eighteen on sports bet Montana, which equals a fifty four
percent chance to win the division. Okay, fangrass has them
at a forty eight percent chance to win the division,

(13:27):
so we're off by six percent there. So you should
be paying a better value than minus one eighteen on
the Astros based on fangraphs projection. So you're paying a
little bit of a tax there. So not a look
that I would go. You're also with the Astros. I
think they're kind of overvaluing them. They're at plus nine

(13:48):
to fifty to win the World Series. That's a nine
point five percent in pride probability. Fangraphs has them as
a five percent chance to win the World Series. You're
paying you know, six and four percentage points tax on
the World Series and Division odds for the Astros. The
other one is, you know, the Red Sox, the Red
Sox Division. They are plus three fifty to win the

(14:12):
Division implies twenty two percent. Fangraphs does not have it
that high at all. But I think that the Red
Sox are surging and have a have a decent chance here.
What I don't like are any Yankees bets. Don't like
them at all. I don't think the Yankees are playing well.
They have a fourteen percent chance to win the division
based on Fangraphs. Their odds are plus three eighty, which

(14:34):
is implies a twenty one percent chance, So we're like
way off there. So that's I don't think a good
bet at all. I think I'd bet the Yankees to
miss the playoffs at plus two sixty more than I
would on any other thing. To go with the Yankees,
and then I'm gonna go Padres. They're plus three eighty

(14:54):
to win the division. I think between the Padres, Mariners
and Red Sox, if you put ten bucks on each
or a unit on each or however much you want
to do it, if you hit on the Padres or
the Red Sox, if one of those teams win the division,
you're gonna win money regardless. If you hit two out
of three, you're gonna be sitting really pretty. And then

(15:15):
if you hit all three, obviously you're you're swimming in it,
okay butt. With the Red Sox being plus three fifty
and the Padres being plus three eighty, you just need
to hit one of those if you put ten bucks
on each one, and you're covering, and you're gonna be
in the clear and making money. So I think if
you do all three of those, I think the chances
of one or two of those hitting is pretty decent.

(15:39):
As far as the awards ones go, there's not a
lot going on. A lot of things are kind of
already figured out. Like Aaron Judges minus five fifty six
to win the MVP. Big Dumpers kind of slowed down
as of late. He's at plus one seventy five. Don't
really see it there school bleus eight thirty three to

(16:01):
win the cy Young. I mean, if I were to
place anything, it, honestly, it might be Garrett Crochet at
plus three eighty or Nate Evaldi at plus two thousand.
You have, Aldi's been awesome. I just don't think he's
gonna have the innings. I do kind of like Paul
Skans at minus two seventy. It's not really fun placing
a minus two seventy bet. But what I like to

(16:22):
do with those is you could take Skeens minus two
seventy and just pair it with like some random, you know,
minus two hundred game and you know in NFL or
college football coming up and call it good Rookie of
the Year. Drake Baldwin a heavy favorite. There's just not
a lot as far as Rookie of the Year or

(16:45):
any of these that are kind of fun to bet,
so that I think is gonna do it for our
MLB Futures episode. I know it was a lot of numbers,
but I'm liking the Padres, Red Sox, and Mariners as
some long shot odds. I think that's the way that
I'm gonna go ahead and do it, and it could
be some pretty fun tickets to have in your back pocket.

(17:06):
We'll talk some NFL futures, some college football futures, and
talk some Cats and grizz as well in the next
couple of weeks, but for now, have a good weekend everyone,
and we'll see you next time.