NFL Championship Weekend

Shaun Rainey breaks down NFL championship weekend as well as some advice for betting parlays and the Rainmaker

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Do you rent that? Young Nah? No, I own it.
That's how I feel about this weekend. Pay him, pay
that me and his money. Joy it wild, last gambling gods,
fickle bunch. Oh yeah, so easily offended. Welcome into the
Make It Rainy Podcast. I'm your host Sean Rainey, sponsored

(00:21):
by sports Bet Montana, where recording Thursday, January twenty third
NFL Championship Weekend on the Horizon. I just I have
to apologize because one we had the we had all
the holidays. I was in Frisco for the FCS National
Championship game, so the podcast has been a little sporadic

(00:42):
over the last month. Apologize for that. We we do
have the discord. It's the sports Bet Montana discord. If
you're not in it hopping, it's it's it's not you know.
The craziest thing is not super active. We're not posting
it all the time. But you know, when it comes
to some of the rain Maker things like that, it's
kind of fun because you know, we talk about the games,

(01:04):
break it down. People throw out their you know, prop
plays or this and leans, and we kind of you know,
break things down and then a lot of times before
I submit one of my same game parlays or a
parlay in general, I kind of just ask the room
see what they think, so feel free to to join
the discord. And then of course I've still all over
the place on social media when it comes to giving

(01:27):
out picks and my parlays and everything. Pretty fun coming
off a weekend where we hit a plus thirteen hundred
rain maker, which was pretty fun, I do want to
address those first, by the way. Number One, I get
a lot of my buddies that are like, I'm like, hey,

(01:48):
did you bet the rain maker this week? They're like, no, dude,
like those never hit, which I'll say this, they are
definitely not hitting at the same rate that we did
last year. Last year, though, I was only doing three
legs per parlay, so they were about plus five point
fifty plus nine hundred. We're kind of like the average

(02:09):
of the rain makers. Last year. I heard from a
lot of people that they wanted them to be higher payouts.
So we've been doing you know, four plus legs this year,
and I've been providing same game ones for Monday night Football,
Thursday night football, where it's trying to find you know,
four legs of a same game parlay to hit. So

(02:32):
there's been more rain makers and they're more challenging. Now
I want to say this because I've always said when
I have a rain maker and i'll we have two
for this weekend, I've always said, bet every individual leg
by itself with your full unit size, and then bet
a quarter of a unit on the parlay itself. Okay.

(02:56):
So if you normally, if your normal bet his twenty bucks,
and I have four player props, I would put twenty
on each and put ten or five bucks on the parlay, okay,
because then if if three of the four hit, you're
making money. And most of the time, like the other one,

(03:16):
I had two part I had two rain makers this weekend.
We went eight and one in the legs. So I
made a lot of money because I bet each individual leg.
I put about twenty five bucks on each individual leg,
and I put you know, twenty twenty five also on
the parlay because I'm up this year, so we're getting
a little aggressive with it, okay. And then in the

(03:38):
player prop one it came down to Sunday Night Football.
It was Dalton Kincaid was the last leg, and so
I put fifty bucks on his under and then he
ended up, you know, not going over, so the parlay
didn't hit, but I still made twenty five bucks because
I put fifty dollars on his under So it's about

(03:59):
money management and those if you're at a plus thirteen
hundred to plus seventeen hundred parlay, so plus thirteen hundred
is a little over seven percent odds of hitting that
that is the implied probability. The plus seventeen hundred is
five percent odds of hitting. So of course these are
not gonna hit all the time. We're gonna go five, six,

(04:21):
seven in a row not hitting. Okay, but we've hit
I think three or four since the Thanksgiving so I
have to go back and look at the exact numbers,
but I'm pretty sure it's we've hit four out of fifteen,
which is if you're putting ten dollars on each one
of them, you know we're up. So it's it's about

(04:42):
how you spend the money, and I know the recreational better.
They don't want to spend the time, and they don't
they don't bet that much money, right, so they don't
want to put twenty dollars on four legs and then
put you know, twenty on the parlay and that ends
up being you know, one hundred, one hundred and twenty dollars,
Like they just want to put twenty bucks on the

(05:03):
parlay and call it good. Well, that's that strategy by itself.
Of course, you're gonna get frustrated when they don't hit,
because then you feel like you're always losing, even if
you hit one out of five, one out of six,
one o seven, because it just feels like you're losing
every week. But that's just not the correct way to bet.
And so much about sports betting is just proper management

(05:25):
and building out a portfolio where you're just diving up
units and properly doing it. Everyone wants the everyone wants
the parlay. Everyone sees on social media the ten dollars
twelve fifteen leg parlay that cashes out ten grand, like
that's not you see those and those are damaging to

(05:45):
sports betting, okay, because that's not how you win long term,
especially if you like to bet, you know, multiple days
out of the week, or you bet a lot on
an NFL Sunday, like you just have to be diligent
with how you divy up your money. Okay, now that
we got that out of the way. Two other things
of note before we dive into the games. This is

(06:09):
the last weekend before the Super Bowl. Now, props for
this weekend were up on Monday. Props are gonna be
up very early for the Super Bowl. If you are
going to bet props, you have to have to have
to have to write them down. Now, know what Dunton
Kincaid's receiving line is for this game against Kansas City,

(06:32):
So then when they open up, if Buffalo were to win,
you know what his line or a general area of
what his line would be if they end up playing
the Commanders or the Eagles. Know what Travis Kelcey's receiving
prop has been throughout the year and how it's changed
in the playoffs. Be familiar. Do a little bit of
research now on these props, so when when they first

(06:54):
open for the super Bowl, you can bet them right
away because these will change ten times more for the
Super Bowl than they even have this week. And for example,
I bet Noah Gray over eleven and a half yards
at minus one eighteen on sports Bet. When I saw
it on it was either Monday or Tuesday, right away. Okay,

(07:16):
Buffalo has not been great against tight ends. Noah Gray
has got over this and you know, four of six
and I think it's a good matchup, and I bet this,
and now his number is at sixteen and a half
minus one twenty five and trending higher. So we've lost
five yards when it was eleven and a half. That's
that's that's huge. So we've lost five yards and are

(07:37):
paying more juice on if because by waiting on a
Thursday from a Monday, it's gonna be that and way
worse for the super Bowl, especially if you're betting all
of the overs. If you're betting an under and it's
a it's a well known player, you can wait because
people are gonna bet the over. Like if you want
Travis Kelcey under this week, just wait because that open

(08:00):
up at sixty eight and a half. It's already in
the low seventies. It could close mid seventies and then
you could bet the under. But if you're betting over
based on any of these matchups, you have to get
it early. And it pays to go in there and
look and know what everyone's prop is ahead of time,
what it's been throughout the year or the last few weeks,

(08:23):
and how it's gonna change for the Super Bowl, and
then you can bet it right away because those are
gonna move so so much throughout the two weeks of
the Super Bowl. The other thing, a lot of the
MLB futures just came out. Let me pop up on
sports bet and see what they're at right now. So

(08:45):
there's all of them are available, all the regular season
win totals, cy Young World Series, all that. If anyone
follows me on social media, they that I hate the
Dodgers and I've been going on a rant about baseball.
Do not bet the Dodgers plus two to fifty to

(09:06):
win the World Series plus two fifty for a baseball
team where your money has to be tied up for
like a year, It's just not a wise investment. Okay,
if you like some other teams, then go ahead and
have some fun with it. But you you just cannot
bet a plus two to fifty team if you want
to throw the Dodgers in a in a parlay, which

(09:27):
you know I have done, like I I did Dodgers, Bills, Celtics,
and Auburn to win the title, and I threw a
couple of you know, house State to win the National title.
Then that's fine just because you want to add a
plus two to fifty. And then because if I have

(09:49):
one where it's Ohio State Bills, Celtics Dodgers, and so
Ohio State already won, if the Bills win, and then
and then it it's really interesting because then I got
Celtics Dodgers, and then you could start hedging out because
some of those are like ten dollars to win eighteen hundred.
So I've sprinkled quite a few of those to juice

(10:10):
it up. But don't straight bet Dodgers plus two fifty.
That's just not good. And I'll go through I'll go
through a lot of these early baseball ones. Cy Young
regular season win, total strikeout leaders props. That's really kind
of in my wheelhouse. I do it. I'm a huge
fantasy baseball guy. I do a ton of baseball research,

(10:32):
and I hit schoobl Cy Young last year. That was awesome.
We got that at I'm pretty sure it was ten
to one odds on Schooble. That was so that was
a ton of fun. I just missed out. I had
a you know, a I think it was twenty five
to one on Jackson Merrill, rookie of the year, came

(10:57):
up just shy of second place, but was able to
hedge it out with Paul Skeins throughout the year, and
a couple of times where Meryl did awesome and then
and Skens was plus money at the time. So I'll
dive into that, all right, divisional picks. First off, I'll
go through the rain makers that I have. We got
two rain makers now, I submitted one of them pretty early.

(11:19):
We got Washington, moved him up to ten and a half,
took the game total over forty six and a half,
Jayden Daniels over two hundred and eighty combined yards, Austin
Eckler three plus receptions, Bill's money line, and under fifty
one and a half. After sitting on this, I'm a
little hesitant on the over forty six and a half
in the Washington game. I think this could be more

(11:44):
of a lower scoring game than I originally thought. So
what I have done I liked. I do like Jayden Daniels.
I think he's gonna run a lot. I think they're
gonna they're playing with house money, right, So the numbers
at six and a half, if I had to lean
one way or the other, I would kind of lean
towards Washington, except I am scared about the four road

(12:06):
games in four weeks, and I'm worried about it, you know,
late in the game. But I'm just from what I'm
seeing from Philly and and their offense, like they're banged
up and they're out of sync, and I think if
they just make Saquan uh just stack the box and
make Jalen Hurts beat them, I just think Washington has
some mojo going on right now. Now does it run

(12:28):
out and do they get completely beat up in the
trenches like that could happen. That's what I'm worried about.
But if Washington is able to cover this, you know,
I think it's you know, they have the fourth down variant.
They're gonna go for it on fourth down. I could
see this being a tighter, like, you know, ten to
seven game at half, and then it kind of opens
up in the second half, second half to be the

(12:50):
higher scoring half than the first minus one oh five.
I was surprised because that's how all of these two games,
the matchups prior the second half has gone off the rails.
Jayden Daniels has been way better in the fourth quarter
in the second half, and so of the Eagles. The
Eagles have been a slow starter in the first half,
and I think the Eagles, if they're gonna start scoring

(13:12):
and popping some of these big runs, it's going to
be in the second half. And then if they're doing
that and then Washington's having to trail, they're gonna be
aggressive with it. I just think that there's gonna be
a lot more scoring in the second half. So I
was very surprised that the second half was only minus
one to five to be the higher scoring half. So
I really do like that bet. As far as the
player prop rain maker, we're going Dallas Goddard over three
and a half receptions, Saquon Barkley over twelve and a

(13:35):
half receiving yards, Khalil Shakur over fifty five and a
half yards, and Patrick Mahomes's over four and a half
rush attempts. Okay, with the Washington game, I just think
that one Dallas Goddard has been the security blanket. He's
gone over this number five out of the last seven games,
three straight with four, they had one game with three catches,

(13:57):
one with five, one with seven. He's kind of just
been a go to guy and with Jalen Hurts been
a little bit banged up. His depth of target has
not been as high, so he's checking it down. I
think Goddard is gonna be a go to guy and
Saquon he's getting ninety percent of all the snaps. Like
he is not coming off the field. He's getting more
involved in the pass game. I just think he's on

(14:19):
the field so much that it just takes one reception
here and you know, we ran it last We won
on it last week, so we're running it back. Khalil
Shakra has been the go to guy for Josh Allen
and the way to beat Kansas City. I think he's
gonna be in the middle of the field. I still
think they're gonna be pretty consistent with James Cook in
the run game. I'm surprised that his rushing total opened

(14:43):
at fifty two and a half and over thirteen and
a half carries. Both of those have gone up since.
But I think the Dalton Kinkaid, who I'm also on,
and Shakir are going to be the guys in the
middle of the field that Buffalo is going to attack
and Mahomes rush attempts. It's just the playoffs. I think
He's gonna run and if they do happen to win,

(15:03):
which is kind of a hedge to the first Rainmaker
where we took Bill's money line. We're going with homes
over four and a half rush attempts in the Buffalo game.
I kind of like Buffalo. I'm a little worried about
some of the injuries in the secondary, but I just
feel like that this is their time, and I think

(15:26):
Josh Allen is gonna get it done. But I bet
Bill's money line in the rain Maker. But the main
thing that I've done is I paired Bills plus seven
and a half with pulling Ohio State down. I bet
Bills plus seven and a half with un d up
to fourteen and a half that leg already hit. So

(15:46):
I'm sitting on a Bill's seven and a half ticket.
And then I paired Bills seven and a half with
Washington ten and a half. I think you could also
pair Bills seven and a half with Philly money line
if you like Philly and not Washington in that game.
I just do not think that the Bills are gonna
lose by more than a touchdown in this game. I
would be shocked the way Kansas City has played everybody

(16:08):
so tight. I know everyone's gonna say, hey, Mahomes is
seven and zero in games in the playoffs where the
line is less than three true, in all seven of
those games, they have not won by more than seven points.
So I just really think Buffalo is gonna be able
to cover a seven and a half teaser leg. You
can pare it, you can cross sport tease it too.

(16:30):
You can move Bills up to seven and a half.
Pair it with like Griz money line versus the Cats
on Saturday, because they'll probably gonna be like a five
to six and a half, seven and a half point favorite,
and you could use that as a way to be
a teaser leg. All sorts of ways that you compare
Bills seven and a half. If you like the Buffalo side,
Let's see what else. First touchdown. First touchdown is always

(16:53):
kind of fun with these. I really like my rule
of thumb. I really love quarterbacks and tight ends when
it comes to first touchdown or backup running backs because
the value is just not there with starting quarterbacks. With
starting running backs in the star players like, I'm not
gonna bet Saquon Barkley plus three sixty first touchdown like,
give me Dallas Goddard at plus eighteen hundred or an

(17:18):
Austin Eckler at plus twenty one hundred to get first touchdown.
Dalton Kincaid plus twenty one mahomes eighteen to one, and
I did. Jeremy McNichols. So he got four goal line
carries for Washington last week and scored a touchdown. He's
sixty nine to one odds to be first touchdown. Yes,
it's probably not gonna happen, but yes, I'm gonna throw

(17:39):
five dollars on it. Twin three hundred and fifty. Like
if he's getting goal line carries, Like, what if they
get down there, what if Brian robbins because they're using
Brian Robinson and Austin Eckler a lot in two back sets,
Austin as the pass catching guy. What if they're using
two backs on the first drive, Robinson gets you know,
five six carries, Austin Eckler gets a catcher too, and

(18:00):
then they bring in McNichols to be the goal line
back and they score a touchdown sixty nine to one.
I just feel like that should be more like thirty
five to one, forty to one. So the fact that
it's a high. Why not, I'm gonna throw five bucks
on it. And then the other bet that I like
is I think that both of these games, I could
see Washington winning in the first half and then Philly

(18:21):
coming back and winning in the second, or vice versa
for Buffalo Kansas City. So I think the Buffalo lead
at half, Kansas City win the game. Those are, you know,
plus six hundred, and then some of them are like
plus twenty five hundred for it to be like a
tie and then Buffalo win or a tie at half
and Kansas City win. I think that game is gonna
be so close that those are also worth looking at.

(18:47):
That's all I got. I will have multiple Super Bowl pods.
I'll do an early one with all the early lines,
and then, like I said, we'll dive into baseball. We'll
get some NBA playoffs and things of that nature. But
good luck, let's cash a rainmaker and have a good weekend.