NFL WEEK 2, GRIZ VS UND

Shaun Rainey breaks down week 2 of the NFL slate and the big matchup between Montana and North Dakota. Sponsored by Sports Bet Montana.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Do you rent that? Young Nah? No, I own it.
That's how I feel about this weekend. Pay him paid that,
Me and his money joy it, while last gambling gods
fickle bunch, oh so easily offend. Welcome into the Make
It Rainy Podcast sponsored by sports Bet Montana. I'm your host,

(00:22):
Sean Rady, recording this Friday about two o'clock. And uh,
you know we're gonna talk some cats and grids, but first,
uh let's let's talk some rain maker, right, Okay. So
I I will have a rain Maker special every week
on like sides and totals, and then one for props
and then one for the standalone games. And so far

(00:43):
we're off to a rough start. We're zero and five
on them, but we on three of them, have hit
three of the four legs. And I just want to
stress this again, Bet every single individual leg Okay, I'm
I'm putting in like four legs of this thing to
get it somewhere in the ten to one to like

(01:06):
eighteen to one odds and what you should be doing.
And I know a lot of people don't like doing this,
Like they just want to pull out a twenty and
put twenty on the whole thing to win twenty to
win two fifty ish and call it good. But that's
just not the way to do it. I like all
of these individual legs, and like last night, I had

(01:26):
Green Bay, I had the under. We had Tucker Craft
receiving yards and Debo combined rushing and receiving, and the
Craft one hit on the second drive of the game.
The Green Bay one was in control from the beginning,
and so was the under. And so what I would
do is put ten dollars on every leg and then

(01:49):
five on the parlay, or put twenty on each leg
and ten on the parlay, like that's how I would
divvy divvy up the money, right, and then if the
parlay hits, you're gonna win a lot. But if it doesn't,
like last night when the devot didn't come through, well
you had three bets that all hit, and so you

(02:10):
would have let's say you put ten bucks that you're
your plus thirty, down one plus twenty, and then down
five from the parlay, and so bam, you're up fifteen bucks,
you know, And so I feel like that's the way
that you need to do it, is double the bet
on each leg and then half of the bet on
the parlay. Okay, if not, that's fine, but just don't

(02:35):
expect it to to win every time, right, We just
got to hit one out of every eight or nine
to make a profit. And I like the ones this week.
We'll go over it, but I'm a little bummed that
we haven't hit one yet. That said, you know, if
people out there want ones that are more like plus

(02:56):
five hundred or you know, lower, like I can come
up with. There's definitely like moneyline parlays, or like taking
some underdogs, like I like the Jets this week at
like plus six and a half, Right, I can move
them up to plus ten and a half and pair
it with some other stuff and have it to be
a less payoff. But I think people enjoy parlays, and
I think they like the Raymaker for that reason, where

(03:17):
they could just put ten twenty bucks on it and
try and win big and if they lose the ten bucks,
they don't really care. But if you're in this to
make money, do it the way that I said. Also,
this weekend through Monday is gonna be the thirty percent
parlay boost. So if you put minimum ten dollars bet

(03:39):
on four legs, each leg has to be minus one
fifty or better, and it's kind of fun. And you
could do it with you know, any sport. You could
do props that kind of stuff, and it's pretty fun.
I kind of was rip roaring through a bunch of
bets last week and didn't like actually mark down official plays.
I will do that this week so we can kind
of keep track. But we hit pretty good with a

(04:02):
lot of the player props. There was a lot of
rookies that I said that I really liked because I
feel like they're gonna be way more involved than the
books can can adjust for, and almost all of them
went over. I love Tyler Warren, he was like my
favorite bet I said the latter it he was at
thirty seven yards and he had seventy seven or more

(04:23):
than that. That was an absolutely easy play. We liked
genty over carry it rush attempts that hit. We like
Teed McMillan, he went over yards. We went Agbuca he
went over yards. We liked Hunter Henry, he went over yards.
There's a lot of stuff that we liked, and we're
gonna kind of hit the well again with some of these,

(04:46):
and you know, we'll go through props and I'll go through,
you know, leans and plays. Okay, let's just get it going.
The Pats on the road taking on the Dolphins one
and a half point underdogs. Just give me the Patriot
money line. I just don't think the Dolphins are a
very good team, and if I'm getting the Patriots at
plus money worth a bet in my opinion, Hunter Henry

(05:10):
over thirty four and a half receiving yards is a play,
and it is one of my plays in The rain
Maker this week. The Jacksonville Jaguars on the road taking
on the Bengals Jags three and a half. If I
had to play it, I would take the Jags, but
I think it's more of a move the Jags up
to plus seven and a half. So I'm just gonna
write down a lot of these. We'll call them like

(05:32):
teaser legs. Basically, it's just like things that you're just
gonna pair with other stuff. Okay, So Jags up to
eight and a half is one of the things that
I like, and I like a lot of props in
this one. I'm taking Trevor Lawrence over two hundred and
thirty two and a half passing yards, and I like

(05:53):
Travis etn over fifteen and a half receiving yards and
Brenton Strange over thirty one and a half receiving yards
that's also in the maker. I think that the Bengals
are gonna score and the Jags are gonna have to
throw the ball, and they're gonna have success throwing here.
So I like all of those bets, and I think
that there's some if you go into some of the specials,
like there's some Trevor Lawrence like over three hundred paired

(06:15):
with some receiver stuff that I think could be enticing
Niner Saints. I just three and a half Niners. I
don't know, don't really want to touch it. With Mac Jones,
I do like Juwan Johnson over thirty two and a
half receiving yards and over four and a half receptions.
This guy was by far the main target here. I'm

(06:36):
a little worried that this number is so low because
he had so many targets and was so good that
the fact that it's at thirty two and it hasn't
been higher scares me a little bit. But I'm still
gonna take it just because of how low it is.
Bills and Jets Jets six and a half point underdogs.
I lean Jets in this one. I'd rather just move

(06:58):
it up to eight and a half and pair it
with some other things. I also really like the over
in this one. I already I betted at forty six
and a half and I pushed it down to over
forty one and a half and now it's starting to
creep up. It's at forty seven and a half. But
we have the Jets in the rain Maker up to
seven and a half. It's one of the legs with
the Patriots to three and a half. Instead of messing

(07:20):
around with money line with Patriots, I just did it
up to three and a half. It only cost us
just a little bit, and so we got I'll just
go over the Rainmakers now and they'll go through the picks.
We got New England up to plus three and a half,
Eagles money line, more on that in a bit, Jets
up to seven and a half, and Bucks minus two
and a half and it's at plus thirteen twenty five. Okay.

(07:40):
The player prop one Hunter Henry over thirty five and
a half receiving yards, Breton Strange over thirty three and
a half receiving yards, Breeze Hall over fifty two and
a half rush yards and Bjon Robinson over twenty five
and a half receiving yards. What you'll notice, especially when
it's a four leg thing, I will always have the
last leg be a Sunday night or Monday night football game,
because all we want to do is trying to hit
the first three. Because if you do, if you are

(08:01):
the kind of guy that puts twenty bucks on it,
twenty to win two fifty or three hundred bucks, if
all three first hit, it just gives you an option
to hedge, and you're just like, hey, I got twenty
to win two fifty. I want to make sure I
win at least fifty bucks. I could put fifty on
the other side and you win either way. Okay, where
we're both Bill's Jets give me justin fields over one

(08:21):
hundred and eighty eight and a half passing yards, and
I like haul over fifty seven and a half rushing yards.
I just think that this is going to be a
I think the Jets are gonna score points. And I'm
also pairing the over forty one and a half with
a bunch of stuff. So when I say Jags plus
eight and a half, you can kind of like just

(08:43):
round rob in these things like Jags up to eight
and a half paired with Jets over forty one and
a half. I think that this game is gonna be
a lot of points, and I think the the Jets
are gonna get a lot of yards in this one
against the Bills defense I think is pretty overrated. Rams
Titans don't have much in this one. I would take
lean Rams, but laying five and a half on the road,

(09:05):
I don't love it. Let's just go Rams in money
line parlay with all of these other legs that I
am announcing. I kind of do like Elk aumnor or whatever.
The Titans rookie he had like eight targets last week,
only connected once or twice, but he's at thirty two
and a half for steaming yards. That would be a

(09:26):
prop in this game that I would play Seattle Seahawks
on the road taking on the Steelers over under three
and a half. I was on the Seahawks initially, and
then now it seems like a lot of their secondary
might be out, which has me hesitant. JSN is at
sixty seven and a half yards. He was like targeted
on fifty seven percent of pass plays. The number seems low.

(09:48):
Probably just take it, and I'll probably take Kenneth Walker
under forty four and a half rushing yards with Lean Seattle.
But I'm not gonna put money on it because I
just don't trust it. I think I think it's gonna
be a super low scoring game. Cleveland Browns at the
Ravens numbers twelve and a half. I think you can

(10:08):
only lean Browns at twelve and a half. I just
that's a lot of points. Give me Joe Flacco over
two hundred and forty three and a half passing yards.
He's got a lot of options. I liked it last week.
I think they're gonna be down and I don't think
they can run the ball, so they're gonna have to
throw it. And they got a lot of guys that
throw too. But I'm not sure who to take in

(10:30):
the player prop as far as receiving goes, because that
Fan and Junior the tight end, the rookie tight end
adds another weapon, so you have him and then Djoku
and Tilman and Judy, and they threw it to Dylan
Samson nine times out of the backfield. I'd probably go
Samson receiving if any of those because I just don't
trust where the ball is gonna go. That's why I'm

(10:50):
just gonna take Flaco over two hundred and forty three
and a half passing yards. Giants on the road taking
on the Cowboys. Cowboys five and a half point favorites
Dallas money line is going to be another one of
my round robin bets. I really like them in this spot.
I'd bet at minus five and a half as well.
I think they're gonna smoke them. Dak has he's like

(11:10):
eight to o or something against the Giants or whatever.
Giants aren't very good. Lions minus six and a half
hosting the Bears, I'd probably just push the Bears up. Yeah,
let's do that. Let's just push the Bears up to
thirteen and a half and that could be one of

(11:32):
our other round robin legs. I think. I think the
head coach has intimate knowledge of Detroit. There neither team
looked great. Broncos on the road against the Colts. This
is the one I struggle with the most. I've been
very much anti Broncos hype, but getting them at this

(11:52):
light of a number on the road is enticing. Stay
away from me. I initially like Tyler Warren over forty
three and a half yards, but I'm not gonna make
it an official play because Denver does cover tight ends
very well. Carolina Panthers on the Road taken on the Cardinals.

(12:13):
Cardinals six and a half point favorites. We're throwing Arizona
into the money line into our round robin worth of bets.
I like Kyler over twenty six and a half rushing yards,
Trey Benson over thirty three and a half rushing yards.
I think the Cardinals are gonna run all over Carolina,
and I think they're gonna beat him. I would take

(12:34):
them at six and a half as well. Eagles on
the Road take on the Chiefs. Just give me the
Eagles all day in this one. I don't I know,
though Mahomes is a dog, but I just don't think
the Chiefs are that good and they're super banged up.
Even if worthy plays, I just don't think he's gonna
be a hundred percent. I just don't know how they
get big plays and move the football. Give me Jalen
Hurts over two hundred and seven and a half passing
yards over twenty five and a half passing attempts. I

(12:58):
do think Kansas City's were on defense is still pretty solid,
but I think their pasty is not. And I think
Philly will throw the ball in this one sneaky play.
Taekwon Thornton or whatever his name is over twenty eight
and a half receiving yards. Just keep an eye on
that to see what worthy status is if he's out.
Jump on Thornton really like the Eagles Falcons on the

(13:21):
road taking on the vikings. Three and a half is
the number. I'm on Atlanta here at plus three and
a half. I'd thought about having this as one of
the legs in the rain Maker decided to make it
bucks minus two and a half just to give us
an extra day to hedge out if you want. And
I really like Bijon over twenty five and a half

(13:42):
receiving yards. I just don't think Atlanta is in a
position on the offensive line to run the ball very well.
And Minnesota's gonna bring a lot of pressure. I think
it's gonna be a lot of dump dump off to Bijon,
who had one hundred yards receiving last week. I think
that kind of continues. Jordan Mason rushing yards over fifty
eight and a half something to look into as well.
Not gonna be an official, but I like Mason over
fifty eight and a half as well. And then we

(14:03):
got the Bucks Texans, I would take the Bucks. I
might just take a money line here. But what we're
gonna do is, since it's plus two and a half, uh,
we're just gonna take the Bucks up to seven and
a half and have that be one of our one
of our plays that we do the carousel with. As
far as the Chargers Chiefs game goes, a lot of
the props are not available in this one. I would

(14:25):
lean Chargers, especially if Brock Bowers is dinged up and
not playing. But give me both quarterbacks over they're both
at like two hundred and forty eight yards. I think
this is gonna be a lot of passing. Jacobe Myers
probably gonna be in the sixties something range that looks good.
Give me Ashton Gentsy under his rushing yards too. I
think both teams are gonna be chucking it. So a

(14:46):
lot of those props aren't available yet, but look into
those when they when they do. Okay, so a lot
of our are pairing right. We got Rams money line,
Jags up to eight and a half, Jets, bills over
forty one and a half, Dallas money line, bears up
to thirteen and a half, Arizona money line, and Bucks
up to seven and a half. You can throw all

(15:06):
of those in to the kiosk and put in like
sixty bucks in round robinam and it'll just make a
bunch of bets. And so if one two, if you know,
five out of the seven, four out of the seven hit,
you're you're gonna be sitting good. So that's what I'm
gonna do there, all right, Cats and Grizz. The Cats
are twenty eight and a half point favorites against San Diego.

(15:28):
They're owing two against the spread so far. But I
like them to win big here. I think they've had
two very good opponents and they've been grinded out games.
I think they're gonna get up. I think they're gonna
keep the gas pedal down because they won a nice,
feel good, just beat somebody down game, and I think
they're gonna win by thirty plus the Grizz game. Grizz
opened up as three and a half point favorites. That

(15:48):
has now moved to two and a half. As North
Dakota getting some love getting some money. It is a
stay away from me. I would lean to the over
fifty two and a half, but the total is off
the board right now, so it looks like that is
currently being adjusted. I don't know. I don't know, man.
I think that this is a coin flip game. I

(16:09):
think if you're a big Gris fan and you like
to do the whole head your happiness thing, I you know,
put put some money at North Dakota plus one twenty
and if you're Gris, if you're a Gris fan and
they lose, at least you, uh, your wallet wins. And
if you're the type of fan that can never bet
against your team, then either take the Grizz or just pass.
But I think that's a very tough, tough game because

(16:30):
we haven't really seen a lot from the Grizz yet,
and I want to see how they look first before
I put my well earned dollars on them. All Right,
that's gonna do it quick, easy to the point, just
trying to get you the picks. Please join our discord
channel if you listen to this podcast and earn in
the discord. I don't really know what you're doing, because

(16:52):
we have a lot of good conversation there as far
as what we like and things like that, so please
join that. Just search Sean Rainey sports Beat Montana on
Discord and hop along in there. All right, have a
great weekend, everybody. Let's wind some money