October 11, 2024 • 23 mins
Shaun Rainey breaks down an emotional game 5 of the NLDS. Can the Griz improve their defense? Cats huge matchup with Idaho and NFL week 6 props and picks! 143-90 on the season.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You rent that, young Nah No, I own it. That's
how I feel about this weekend. Pay him paid that,
Me and his money.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Joy it, while last gambling gods, fickle bunch, oh so
easily offended. Welcome to the Make It Raindy Podcast. I'm
your host, Sean Raindy, sponsored by Sports Bet Montana, Recording
this Friday a little after one o'clock. And uh man,
there's a big day. There's a big day for your boy.
We got my San Diego Padres taking on the Dodgers
(00:32):
Game five. Been nervous all day. It's kind of funny.
So being like a sports reporter, I have, my fandom
for things has lessened just over the years, just because
it kind of comes with the job. Right, You cover
so many games, so you're not and you are not
emotionally invested in the games that you're covering as much
(00:55):
because that's not what you're supposed to be doing. So
you kind of just like kind of get numb to
riding the waves of fandom. And you know, I'm also
a Chargers fan, and the Chargers have just been so
you know, blah, And I hated that it like dictated
my my moods or I get high or low and
blah blah blah blah. So I just kind of stopped
(01:18):
being like that true fan that like, oh, gets super
high and gets super low and it's kind of just like, yeah,
I like following, you know, my teams and blah blah blah.
But with the Padres, I've really let myself become a fan,
and it's it's been you know, kind of fun living
and dying by every pitch and things like that, because
like you you feel that emotion. Because I was kind
(01:41):
of missing, I was like, man, I'm just like I
see all these fans and they're just they're so excited
and they get so upset and so sad, and I
was like, I'm just kind of like emotionless. I'm kind
of just you know, I have my teams that I
like to watch and root for, but I don't really
get super emotional about it. So I kind of told
myself I was like a couple of years ago, I
was like, I'm I'm going all in with the Padres.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
I'm not.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
I don't get emotional about the Chargers, like they just
kind of pissed me off. And you know, I like
watching like San Diego Aztec's basketball things like that, but
I don't get nervous or like ride the wave emotionally
all that much. But I told myself what the padres
I'm going to and so man, this is like my
stomach like has been kind of turning all day.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
To be honest, it's.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
Probably the biggest game in padres history. That said, I
did make a rain maker for today, So if you
do download this right away. First off, I bet Yamamoto
everything under his k's under three and a half, his
hits under four and a half. I think he could
(02:41):
see three batters and exit this game. He went three
innings last time, only got one strikeout. I don't think
he's gonna be allowed to pitch where he gives up
five hits. So I hammered those. I made a rain
maker with those. I also part parlaid that with the
Darvish under four and a half k's look. He went
seven innings, only had three k last time. He's not
gonna be a strikeout guy. He's gonna pitch to contact
(03:03):
and I think he's only gonna go five innings tops.
Because Game five, everyone is going to be very uh
you know, they're gonna go straight to all their their
high leverage guys, So I just I love those and
I took the Dodgers' money line with the under, just
because unders usually in elimination games are the way to go.
(03:26):
It's kind of moved though. I took under seven and
a half, moved up to eight and a half. Gonna
roll with it's plus twenty two hundred the rain Maker
on sports Bets. So as a Padres fan, I'm gonna
hope that doesn't hit because the Dodgers' money line doesn't hit.
But a little bit of hedging my happiness. And I'm
very nervous about the Padres trying to hit against a
bullpen game for the Dodgers. Okay, enough baseball, let's talk
(03:48):
a little college and NFL. Of course, so far on
the season, one hundred and forty three and ninety is
the record. We went three and one on Thursday Night football.
Absolutely devastated that Jordan Mason was seven yards short of
hitting the rain Maker last night. I mean he was
on his way to like one hundred and fifty and
we took Geno for his yards. He went one hundred
(04:08):
yards over that. We took Keth Walker for his receptions.
Speaker 1 (04:12):
He had eight.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
He went way over that. Man, it was all. It
was all a perfect handicap. We just had an injury,
so that was a bummer. I will give a forced
pick on every game, and then I'll also tell you
the ones that I have bet myself, and then of
course i'll go through all of the props. You know
which ones I'm lattering. There's a few that aren't out
(04:35):
yet because of injury news, and there's a few that
I haven't done based on waiting on some weather news.
And then I'll also go through some of the So
when you click on one of these games on sports
but Montana, they have the player Specials tab and I
usually go in there and I just put like five
bucks on ones that are you know, plus one thousand
(04:58):
or higher odds that I like that are Some of
them are correlated right where it's the team that you
think is gonna win. It's like their running back yards
versus the team that's losing, like their best wide receiver yards.
And I've hit at least one or two of those
every week the last like three weeks. They're not all
of them are available yet, but I'll just throw some
of those out there as well. As far as you know,
(05:20):
cats and Grizz go. The Grizz game has moved a lot.
They're still twelve and a half point favorites over NAU,
but the total has gone from sixty three to fifty five.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
A lot of that.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Because NAU starting their third string quarterback. So I think
a lot of people might have jumped on the twelve
and a half initially four NAU at plus twelve and
a half because why this Grizz team hasn't covered versus anybody. So,
but against a third string quarterback, you know, obviously it's
gonna lean in the Grizz favor I would I don't know.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Man.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
They used defense is pretty solid too, That's why I
think we're seeing the total go down. So I think
they're pretty sharp. Lines don't have a strong play either way.
I think it's probably emotionally, you know, if you like
betting against the Grids, if you want them to win
and take NAU. I don't know at this point if
(06:14):
the Grids defensive o's are fixable. I just don't think
they're very good, and I don't think the scheme fits
the personnel, and I don't know how much these coaches
can change the scheme to fit the personnel.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
If that makes sense.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
It's kind of like a lot of people are like,
is it the defense or is it the players. I
think it's a combination, right. I think in this defense,
they're not able to get as much pressure up front,
so you have to blitz. And when you have to blitz,
you're leaving guys on an island. And I just don't
think that they have the guys to be on an
(06:52):
island consistently without getting beat. I mean we're seeing it
every game. They're getting deep balls on corners, they're doing
the slot fade against the safe and it's one on
one and all you have to do is make make
one play and beat your guy and you get a
you know, fifty plus yard touchdown. And defensively, you just
cannot let guys teams score like that. You got to
make them earn it. And so when they're just getting
(07:14):
you know, we were State last week had what three
fifty yard plus touchdowns, Like you cannot allow that in
a college football game. You have to make them earn
it and then hope that you can get a strip
sack or there's a penalty, or there's this or that
that stalls out a drive. You can't just give them free,
huge explosive plays like it just can't happen. So you
have that and then you got the you know, the
(07:35):
kickoff or the touchdown, and that's just the recipe for
being a bad team. And offensively the Grids are good.
A lot of people are like, hey, just slow it down,
run it help the defense, Like, I don't know if
that's the case either. I think when they play up
tempo that that's why they're they're good offensively, and I
think if they slow it down and run the ball more,
they're not going to be as effective. And you have
the wide receivers and the weapons there, so the defense
(07:57):
needs to figure it out. And I think they need
to start playing a little bit more cover two and
get those guys those safeties back and making teams kind
of earn it down the field and kind of play
more of a bend but don't break defense and hope
that you can get some stops in the red zone.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
But the issue with that that I've.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Always had a criticism of about this Griz defense is
they play with five defensive backs and when teams get
in the red zone, they just are able to run
the ball because they don't go to heavier personnel. If
it was me, I'd run. You want to run your
three three five stack defense, that's fine. I'd play back
a little bit more so teams don't get those explosive plays.
(08:38):
And then when you get in the red zone, I'm
bringing in some bigger bodies, an extra linebacker, an extra
defensive lineman playing a four man front instead of the
three three five with the linebacker standing up on the edge.
Bring in an extra defensive linemen, take out one of
the corners or the third safety, just so you have
a little bit more beef and try to force some
(08:58):
field goals. I think that's the way the recipe that
this team is gonna have to to use moving forward.
As far as the Montana State Idaho game, man, this
is gonna be an awesome one. Katz opened up five
and a half point favorites. That's moved out to seven
and a half. I kind of agree with the move
I hopped on. I think, you know a lot of
people liked Montana State at five and a half. I
think if you're getting them at home under a touchdown,
(09:22):
that was the way to go. So I think at
seven and a half that's probably the correct move there.
And at that point, I think it would be a
lean Idaho or nothing else. Probably a pass now at
this point. But I think at the five and a half,
Montana State was looking good just because Idaho is just
not explosive enough offensively. I think this is gonna be
a pretty defensive battle in Bozeman. But that, man, that's
(09:45):
gonna be one heck of a game. Can't wait to
watch that. All right, let's dive into the picks. We're
gonna go wrapped fire here. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars
on the road taking on the Bears. Started out at
two and a half, that's kind of moving now to
one and a half. I kind of lean with the
Jags here. This is just kind of a feel thing.
(10:06):
And but when it's at like a two and a
half or one and a half, and I kind of
like that side to me, like I'm just gonna push
them up right, So we're gonna.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Make as I drop my pen one second.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
So we're gonna move the Jags up to eight and
a half, and we're gonna pair it with the Jets
up to eight and a half on Monday Night Football
as a teaser, a little parlay there so that's gonna
be how we're gonna play that. I do like some
props in this one. Trying to figure out which props
I want for the uh the rain Maker, but I
like quite a few here. Gimme Caleb Williams over two
(10:41):
hundred and thirty two and a half passing yards. The
Jags play a lot of Manda Man defense. They suck
in the secondary. I think Caleb's gonna get some work
in there. So give me Dj Moore over sixty and
a half receiving yards and Cole Comette over thirty three
and a half receiving yards. On the other end, I
really like Tank Bigsby over thirty six and a half
rushing yards. They're really starting to get him a lot
more carries. And ETN has been banged up. I saw
(11:05):
this this The Bigsby line was up two days ago
and then this morning it's it's gone. So I wonder
if it has to do with the ETN injury. But
let's see where that the Tank one ends up at.
And as far as the specials on this one, I
kind of like so Dj Moore one hundred and twenty
five yards and Tank seventy five yards is at plus
twenty six hundred. I mean, that's crazy, that's a really high.
And there's a world in which, you know, Tank rips
(11:26):
off another big run and the Jags it's up, you know,
either a back and forth game or a neutral script game,
and Dj Moore has a big game and Tank can
rip off a couple of runs. The Bears run defense
is definitely the weak part of their defense. And give
me Trevor Lawrence under two hundred and forty five passing
(11:47):
yards as well. I just think the way to attack
this Bear's defense is through the ground. Uh Timpa Bay
Buccaneers on the road taking on the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
You follow me on Twitter. I bet this.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
I bet the Bucks minus one thirty on the money
line before David Carr was officially Derek Carr was officially
ruled out. Now their minus won seventy five on the
money line. I would still lean with the Bucks. Here
with Spencer Ratler going curious, just I'm gonna wait and
see what the injury situation is for the Saints, Rashid
(12:22):
Shaheed has been questionable. Rattler came out and said that
he's going to feed Chris o'lave so rattler's propse, I
get like one to ninety or something like that, really low,
and how you beat the Bucks is through the air.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
So I think.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Once I see a lave, I'm hoping a lobby's prop
is like fifty or something like that, and then I
would probably hop on that and maybe think about the
rattler over to be honest, but give me some Chris
Godwin over sixty six and a half receiving yards. This
is the Mike Evans Marshaun Lattimore matchup, so those two
were gonna be going at it. Meanwhile, I think Godwin
in the slot is gonna feast Colts plus two and
(13:00):
a half on the road taking on the Titans. I
have bet this this is one of the rain Maker plays.
Give me the Titans minus two and a half. Colts
defense is atrocious. Looks like Anthony Richardson is going to
be playing. I just think the Titans here, this is
a good spot for them at home, and I think
they're a little bit better than their record indicates, and
I do not trust Indie defensively, and they're with also
(13:23):
probably gonna be about Pittman there without Jonathan Taylor. I
like some Titans props. I mean pretty much every everyone
going against the Colts is awful. So give me Tony
Pollard over sixty six and a half rushing yards, Calvin
Ridley over forty three and a half receiving yards. They
talked about kind of getting him the ball more, and
teams have really exploited the Colts. Secondary Arizona Cardinals taking
(13:47):
on the Green Bay Packers. Cardinals five and a half
point underdogs. Give me the Packers is five and a
half point favorites in this one. I think this is
a pretty good spot. Let me look up. I have
a few trends here from the Dream Preview podcast. So
I listened to you know, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten,
so many podcasts and kind of take all my notes
(14:10):
and things like that, and here's one of the trends.
So a team that's playing back to back road games
and that second game is at lambeau Field. Those teams
are seven and fifteen against the spread, so whatever, So
going to LAMBA the second game of a road trip
is not great. And then the teams that win outright
(14:32):
as a big dog, and then our dogs again the
next week are seventy three and one fifty six against
the spread. So Arizona knocked off San Francisco last week,
and then this suggests that they do not back it
up the next week. So give me the Packers. There
was a special that I marked down in this one
(14:57):
because I think that this could be an offensive game.
I was a little bit worried about some of the
props because they said that there was a chance of
some rain, so I'm gonna double check that. But let's
just say that the Packers are up in this one.
Harrison Junior to have one hundred and twenty five yards
and Josh Jacobs seventy five yards rushing. Both of those
are correlated and that's at fifteen to one odds, so
(15:20):
I kind of like that. And then Murray three hundred
yards passing, Harrison one hundred yards receiving is at twelve
to one. So I could just see the Packers getting
up and then maybe those things possibly happening. I would
look to Trey McBride props for Arizona as well, and
then maybe some Jordan Love stuff. But I want to
(15:40):
check on the weather and exactly who's playing Houston Texans
on the road. Six and a half point favorites taking
on the New England Patriots. Kind of like the Patriots
here plus six and a half. I also like the
under thirty seven and a half. I think that Houston
is not as good offensively without Nico Collins, obviously, but
(16:01):
when he went out, they just have not They've just
been struggling. I also think New England's going to struggle
with Drake May starting, So I would lean to the
Patriots at home getting the six and a half and
the under thirty seven and a half. Lock that under end.
(16:23):
Washington Commanders on the road take it on the Baltimore
Ravens Commanders six and a half point underdogs over under
fifty one and a half. Kind of lean Washington getting
the six and a half. So we're going back to
back six and a half point dogs. Give me Jane
Daniels over two hundred and twenty six and a half
passing yards and over two hundred and seventy nine and
a half combo yards. The way you beat this Baltimore
(16:47):
team is through the air. Brian Robinson Junior is questionable
with a knee injury. I don't think Washington's gonna be
able to run the ball at all. I think they'll
get down early and it'll be a lot of Daniels
kind of scrambling around trying to make some plays.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
So we're gonna go with those. And uh yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
I say Flowers receiving prop at fifty two yards. I
think that's a little enticing because Washington's kind of secondary
and that part of the secondary not very good. So
I could see Flowers having a good game, But don't
feel like super.
Speaker 1 (17:19):
Strong about that prop.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Cleveland Brown's on the road taking on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Brown's nine and a half point underdogs. I kind of
like Mari Cooper for over fifty one and a half
receiving yards. That's they're gonna be throwing it a lot,
and Cooper gets all the targets, and Eagles secondary is
not very good, and.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
So give me.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
Give me Cooper over fifty one and a half receiving
yards if you could stomach it. Deshaun Watson over one
hundred and ninety passing yards probably the lean I would
go too as well, But don't blame me if you
don't want to take that. But man, I would lean
with I just I would as far as a side here.
I I just don't think I could take the Browns.
Can't stomach it all right, my Chargers on the road
(18:04):
taking on the Broncos. Chargers are two and a half
point favorites, and we're going with the Chargers. Here's here's
a trend for you. I was and this is what
I'm doing. I'm moving the Broncos up to eight and
a half. So the Broncos are gonna be one of
my teaser legs because this is just gonna be a
low scoring game. So I don't think the Chargers is
(18:25):
gonna win by margin, but I like them under a
field goal here, So let me bring up this trend.
Speaker 1 (18:31):
This was absolutely pretty crazy.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
So a team off of a bye coming off a loss,
so the Chargers are off two straight losses then went
into a bye, Okay, when that team goes on the road,
versus a team coming off a win. So Denver won
last week against the Raiders, and the line is three
points are under Okay that road team. The Chargers are
(18:55):
thirty five and six against the spread. It's a pretty
pacific subset and a pretty startling number that is. That's
crazy and Road Division favorites after a buye thirty five
and fifteen. So I just think the Chargers know that
they need this game. I it sounds like both tackles
(19:16):
I think are gonna play. I think both defenses are
pretty solid. A little worried, you know, obviously about the
the Broncos really good defense at home.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
But I think that the Chargers are going to change
some things.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
Up after the buye and throw it around a little
bit more. So give me Herbert over one hundred and
eighty four passing yards. This is kind of a contrarian play.
There's a lot of people I'm seeing taking the under,
but I think I get the sense the Chargers are
gonna switch things up a little bit offensively and give
me Ladd McConkie over forty seven and.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
A half receiving yards.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
I think that Patzertan is gonna be guarding Josh Palmer
and Quintin Johnston more on the outside, and I think
Ladd is gonna be able to do his thing on
the inside. And I also think that they're just gonna
find more ways to get him the ball. I mean,
McConkie's really good. He's really good. And I think I
like rookies coming off a bye after they've had you know,
four or five games, especially when they've shown the ability
(20:11):
that they can play. I just think they have to
find ways to get.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
Him the football.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Herbert's a little bit healthier, the old line is getting
a little bit healthier. So those are the props I
like if from a Broncos side, I think maybe Camon
Sutton over forty six and a half receiving yards, it's
worth a look. Steelers on the road taking on the
Raiders the lines at three and a half, I could
only look to the to the Steelers here, it sounds
(20:37):
like Jacobe Myers might miss this game for the Raiders,
like they just have no weapons to throw to with
eight and O'Connell, like I had an ugly game pass
want nothing to do with it. Falcons on the road
five and a half point favorites at Carolina. I would
lead into Atlanta here. I also really like Tyler Algier
over thirty eight and a half rushing yards. Bijon has
been limited with a hamstring injury. They could be up
(20:59):
by multiple and if that's the case, Algier is gonna
get a lot of work and he's gonna fly by this.
We're gonna ladder it too. Kirk Cousins probably should have
a pretty good game here, depending on how much. Carolina
can score two fifty one and a half, pretty low number,
but I think I'm on the edge about pulling the
(21:21):
trigger on that one. And then Chewba Hubbard fifty nine
and a half rushing yards. That's that's what Carolina does.
So that's enticing as well. But I really like the
Lger one more than the other two. All Right, Detroit
on the road three and a half point favorites against
the Cowboys. Give me Detroit in this game, but a prop.
(21:42):
I mean, I love the props in this one. Give
me Dak over two hundred and eighty one and a
half passing yards. Look you, I've said it before, man,
there's all these teams are pass funnels or run funnels.
Detroit is a pass funnel and Dallas can't run the ball.
It's gonna be Dak all day. He's gonna throw for
three to fifty in this one. Gibbs and Montgomery both
(22:02):
at fifty eight and a half rushing yards, give me
Jamiir Gibbs. I kind of like both of them, but
give me Jamior Gibbs over fifty eight and a half,
and then give me Jalen Tolbert over forty three and
a half receiving yards and Turpin over twenty six and
a half receiving yards.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Look, they're gonna be thrown it all over.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
I think there's gonna be plenty of yardage to spread
the ball around. I wrote down a special on this one.
DAK three fifty and CD one fifty twelve to one
may be worth just a couple bucks. The Bengals minus
three and a half at the New York Giants. Uh,
this is gonna be a public Bengals side. Sharps on
(22:39):
the Giant side. But I think that I'm gonna go
with the Bengals here just because the spot. They're one
and four, absolutely need this game like blood the neighbors
is out again. They're coming off a big road wind.
Daniel Jones actually worse at home, and I think there's
more pressure at home on a time time game. I
(23:01):
don't like Cincinnati's defense, but I think it's a good matchup.
Not a lot for props in this game yet, because
there's a lot of injuries.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
On both sides.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Buffalo Bills two and a half point underdogs on the road,
taking on the Jets or favorites. I'm taking on the Jets.
Give me the Jets plus two and a half. It's
not as much as the dead cat bounce for the
fired coach. It's more just all the injuries for Buffalo
that have me on the Jets. But I do really
like Breese Hall over fifty four and a half rushing yards.
This is going to be a get right game. He's
(23:34):
not going to continue to be this bad. I hope
and great matchup versus Buffalo. I think they're really going
to get him involved. I will have more props and plays,
I promise. So be sure to follow me at Sean
Rainey on social media and best of luck.
You rent that, young Nah No, I own it. That's
how I feel about this weekend. Pay him paid that,
Me and his money.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Joy it, while last gambling gods, fickle bunch, oh so
easily offended. Welcome to the Make It Raindy Podcast. I'm
your host, Sean Raindy, sponsored by Sports Bet Montana, Recording
this Friday a little after one o'clock. And uh man,
there's a big day. There's a big day for your boy.
We got my San Diego Padres taking on the Dodgers
(00:32):
Game five. Been nervous all day. It's kind of funny.
So being like a sports reporter, I have, my fandom
for things has lessened just over the years, just because
it kind of comes with the job. Right, You cover
so many games, so you're not and you are not
emotionally invested in the games that you're covering as much
(00:55):
because that's not what you're supposed to be doing. So
you kind of just like kind of get numb to
riding the waves of fandom. And you know, I'm also
a Chargers fan, and the Chargers have just been so
you know, blah, And I hated that it like dictated
my my moods or I get high or low and
blah blah blah blah. So I just kind of stopped
(01:18):
being like that true fan that like, oh, gets super
high and gets super low and it's kind of just like, yeah,
I like following, you know, my teams and blah blah blah.
But with the Padres, I've really let myself become a fan,
and it's it's been you know, kind of fun living
and dying by every pitch and things like that, because
like you you feel that emotion. Because I was kind
(01:41):
of missing, I was like, man, I'm just like I
see all these fans and they're just they're so excited
and they get so upset and so sad, and I
was like, I'm just kind of like emotionless. I'm kind
of just you know, I have my teams that I
like to watch and root for, but I don't really
get super emotional about it. So I kind of told
myself I was like a couple of years ago, I
was like, I'm I'm going all in with the Padres.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
I'm not.
Speaker 2 (02:01):
I don't get emotional about the Chargers, like they just
kind of pissed me off. And you know, I like
watching like San Diego Aztec's basketball things like that, but
I don't get nervous or like ride the wave emotionally
all that much. But I told myself what the padres
I'm going to and so man, this is like my
stomach like has been kind of turning all day.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
To be honest, it's.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
Probably the biggest game in padres history. That said, I
did make a rain maker for today, So if you
do download this right away. First off, I bet Yamamoto
everything under his k's under three and a half, his
hits under four and a half. I think he could
(02:41):
see three batters and exit this game. He went three
innings last time, only got one strikeout. I don't think
he's gonna be allowed to pitch where he gives up
five hits. So I hammered those. I made a rain
maker with those. I also part parlaid that with the
Darvish under four and a half k's look. He went
seven innings, only had three k last time. He's not
gonna be a strikeout guy. He's gonna pitch to contact
(03:03):
and I think he's only gonna go five innings tops.
Because Game five, everyone is going to be very uh
you know, they're gonna go straight to all their their
high leverage guys, So I just I love those and
I took the Dodgers' money line with the under, just
because unders usually in elimination games are the way to go.
(03:26):
It's kind of moved though. I took under seven and
a half, moved up to eight and a half. Gonna
roll with it's plus twenty two hundred the rain Maker
on sports Bets. So as a Padres fan, I'm gonna
hope that doesn't hit because the Dodgers' money line doesn't hit.
But a little bit of hedging my happiness. And I'm
very nervous about the Padres trying to hit against a
bullpen game for the Dodgers. Okay, enough baseball, let's talk
(03:48):
a little college and NFL. Of course, so far on
the season, one hundred and forty three and ninety is
the record. We went three and one on Thursday Night football.
Absolutely devastated that Jordan Mason was seven yards short of
hitting the rain Maker last night. I mean he was
on his way to like one hundred and fifty and
we took Geno for his yards. He went one hundred
(04:08):
yards over that. We took Keth Walker for his receptions.
Speaker 1 (04:12):
He had eight.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
He went way over that. Man, it was all. It
was all a perfect handicap. We just had an injury,
so that was a bummer. I will give a forced
pick on every game, and then I'll also tell you
the ones that I have bet myself, and then of
course i'll go through all of the props. You know
which ones I'm lattering. There's a few that aren't out
(04:35):
yet because of injury news, and there's a few that
I haven't done based on waiting on some weather news.
And then I'll also go through some of the So
when you click on one of these games on sports
but Montana, they have the player Specials tab and I
usually go in there and I just put like five
bucks on ones that are you know, plus one thousand
(04:58):
or higher odds that I like that are Some of
them are correlated right where it's the team that you
think is gonna win. It's like their running back yards
versus the team that's losing, like their best wide receiver yards.
And I've hit at least one or two of those
every week the last like three weeks. They're not all
of them are available yet, but I'll just throw some
of those out there as well. As far as you know,
(05:20):
cats and Grizz go. The Grizz game has moved a lot.
They're still twelve and a half point favorites over NAU,
but the total has gone from sixty three to fifty five.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
A lot of that.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Because NAU starting their third string quarterback. So I think
a lot of people might have jumped on the twelve
and a half initially four NAU at plus twelve and
a half because why this Grizz team hasn't covered versus anybody. So,
but against a third string quarterback, you know, obviously it's
gonna lean in the Grizz favor I would I don't know.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Man.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
They used defense is pretty solid too, That's why I
think we're seeing the total go down. So I think
they're pretty sharp. Lines don't have a strong play either way.
I think it's probably emotionally, you know, if you like
betting against the Grids, if you want them to win
and take NAU. I don't know at this point if
(06:14):
the Grids defensive o's are fixable. I just don't think
they're very good, and I don't think the scheme fits
the personnel, and I don't know how much these coaches
can change the scheme to fit the personnel.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
If that makes sense.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
It's kind of like a lot of people are like,
is it the defense or is it the players. I
think it's a combination, right. I think in this defense,
they're not able to get as much pressure up front,
so you have to blitz. And when you have to blitz,
you're leaving guys on an island. And I just don't
think that they have the guys to be on an
(06:52):
island consistently without getting beat. I mean we're seeing it
every game. They're getting deep balls on corners, they're doing
the slot fade against the safe and it's one on
one and all you have to do is make make
one play and beat your guy and you get a
you know, fifty plus yard touchdown. And defensively, you just
cannot let guys teams score like that. You got to
make them earn it. And so when they're just getting
(07:14):
you know, we were State last week had what three
fifty yard plus touchdowns, Like you cannot allow that in
a college football game. You have to make them earn
it and then hope that you can get a strip
sack or there's a penalty, or there's this or that
that stalls out a drive. You can't just give them free,
huge explosive plays like it just can't happen. So you
have that and then you got the you know, the
(07:35):
kickoff or the touchdown, and that's just the recipe for
being a bad team. And offensively the Grids are good.
A lot of people are like, hey, just slow it down,
run it help the defense, Like, I don't know if
that's the case either. I think when they play up
tempo that that's why they're they're good offensively, and I
think if they slow it down and run the ball more,
they're not going to be as effective. And you have
the wide receivers and the weapons there, so the defense
(07:57):
needs to figure it out. And I think they need
to start playing a little bit more cover two and
get those guys those safeties back and making teams kind
of earn it down the field and kind of play
more of a bend but don't break defense and hope
that you can get some stops in the red zone.
Speaker 1 (08:14):
But the issue with that that I've.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
Always had a criticism of about this Griz defense is
they play with five defensive backs and when teams get
in the red zone, they just are able to run
the ball because they don't go to heavier personnel. If
it was me, I'd run. You want to run your
three three five stack defense, that's fine. I'd play back
a little bit more so teams don't get those explosive plays.
(08:38):
And then when you get in the red zone, I'm
bringing in some bigger bodies, an extra linebacker, an extra
defensive lineman playing a four man front instead of the
three three five with the linebacker standing up on the edge.
Bring in an extra defensive linemen, take out one of
the corners or the third safety, just so you have
a little bit more beef and try to force some
(08:58):
field goals. I think that's the way the recipe that
this team is gonna have to to use moving forward.
As far as the Montana State Idaho game, man, this
is gonna be an awesome one. Katz opened up five
and a half point favorites. That's moved out to seven
and a half. I kind of agree with the move
I hopped on. I think, you know a lot of
people liked Montana State at five and a half. I
think if you're getting them at home under a touchdown,
(09:22):
that was the way to go. So I think at
seven and a half that's probably the correct move there.
And at that point, I think it would be a
lean Idaho or nothing else. Probably a pass now at
this point. But I think at the five and a half,
Montana State was looking good just because Idaho is just
not explosive enough offensively. I think this is gonna be
a pretty defensive battle in Bozeman. But that, man, that's
(09:45):
gonna be one heck of a game. Can't wait to
watch that. All right, let's dive into the picks. We're
gonna go wrapped fire here. We've got the Jacksonville Jaguars
on the road taking on the Bears. Started out at
two and a half, that's kind of moving now to
one and a half. I kind of lean with the
Jags here. This is just kind of a feel thing.
(10:06):
And but when it's at like a two and a
half or one and a half, and I kind of
like that side to me, like I'm just gonna push
them up right, So we're gonna.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Make as I drop my pen one second.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
So we're gonna move the Jags up to eight and
a half, and we're gonna pair it with the Jets
up to eight and a half on Monday Night Football
as a teaser, a little parlay there so that's gonna
be how we're gonna play that. I do like some
props in this one. Trying to figure out which props
I want for the uh the rain Maker, but I
like quite a few here. Gimme Caleb Williams over two
(10:41):
hundred and thirty two and a half passing yards. The
Jags play a lot of Manda Man defense. They suck
in the secondary. I think Caleb's gonna get some work
in there. So give me Dj Moore over sixty and
a half receiving yards and Cole Comette over thirty three
and a half receiving yards. On the other end, I
really like Tank Bigsby over thirty six and a half
rushing yards. They're really starting to get him a lot
more carries. And ETN has been banged up. I saw
(11:05):
this this The Bigsby line was up two days ago
and then this morning it's it's gone. So I wonder
if it has to do with the ETN injury. But
let's see where that the Tank one ends up at.
And as far as the specials on this one, I
kind of like so Dj Moore one hundred and twenty
five yards and Tank seventy five yards is at plus
twenty six hundred. I mean, that's crazy, that's a really high.
And there's a world in which, you know, Tank rips
(11:26):
off another big run and the Jags it's up, you know,
either a back and forth game or a neutral script game,
and Dj Moore has a big game and Tank can
rip off a couple of runs. The Bears run defense
is definitely the weak part of their defense. And give
me Trevor Lawrence under two hundred and forty five passing
(11:47):
yards as well. I just think the way to attack
this Bear's defense is through the ground. Uh Timpa Bay
Buccaneers on the road taking on the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
You follow me on Twitter. I bet this.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
I bet the Bucks minus one thirty on the money
line before David Carr was officially Derek Carr was officially
ruled out. Now their minus won seventy five on the
money line. I would still lean with the Bucks. Here
with Spencer Ratler going curious, just I'm gonna wait and
see what the injury situation is for the Saints, Rashid
(12:22):
Shaheed has been questionable. Rattler came out and said that
he's going to feed Chris o'lave so rattler's propse, I
get like one to ninety or something like that, really low,
and how you beat the Bucks is through the air.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
So I think.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
Once I see a lave, I'm hoping a lobby's prop
is like fifty or something like that, and then I
would probably hop on that and maybe think about the
rattler over to be honest, but give me some Chris
Godwin over sixty six and a half receiving yards. This
is the Mike Evans Marshaun Lattimore matchup, so those two
were gonna be going at it. Meanwhile, I think Godwin
in the slot is gonna feast Colts plus two and
(13:00):
a half on the road taking on the Titans. I
have bet this this is one of the rain Maker plays.
Give me the Titans minus two and a half. Colts
defense is atrocious. Looks like Anthony Richardson is going to
be playing. I just think the Titans here, this is
a good spot for them at home, and I think
they're a little bit better than their record indicates, and
I do not trust Indie defensively, and they're with also
(13:23):
probably gonna be about Pittman there without Jonathan Taylor. I
like some Titans props. I mean pretty much every everyone
going against the Colts is awful. So give me Tony
Pollard over sixty six and a half rushing yards, Calvin
Ridley over forty three and a half receiving yards. They
talked about kind of getting him the ball more, and
teams have really exploited the Colts. Secondary Arizona Cardinals taking
(13:47):
on the Green Bay Packers. Cardinals five and a half
point underdogs. Give me the Packers is five and a
half point favorites in this one. I think this is
a pretty good spot. Let me look up. I have
a few trends here from the Dream Preview podcast. So
I listened to you know, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten,
so many podcasts and kind of take all my notes
(14:10):
and things like that, and here's one of the trends.
So a team that's playing back to back road games
and that second game is at lambeau Field. Those teams
are seven and fifteen against the spread, so whatever, So
going to LAMBA the second game of a road trip
is not great. And then the teams that win outright
(14:32):
as a big dog, and then our dogs again the
next week are seventy three and one fifty six against
the spread. So Arizona knocked off San Francisco last week,
and then this suggests that they do not back it
up the next week. So give me the Packers. There
was a special that I marked down in this one
(14:57):
because I think that this could be an offensive game.
I was a little bit worried about some of the
props because they said that there was a chance of
some rain, so I'm gonna double check that. But let's
just say that the Packers are up in this one.
Harrison Junior to have one hundred and twenty five yards
and Josh Jacobs seventy five yards rushing. Both of those
are correlated and that's at fifteen to one odds, so
(15:20):
I kind of like that. And then Murray three hundred
yards passing, Harrison one hundred yards receiving is at twelve
to one. So I could just see the Packers getting
up and then maybe those things possibly happening. I would
look to Trey McBride props for Arizona as well, and
then maybe some Jordan Love stuff. But I want to
(15:40):
check on the weather and exactly who's playing Houston Texans
on the road. Six and a half point favorites taking
on the New England Patriots. Kind of like the Patriots
here plus six and a half. I also like the
under thirty seven and a half. I think that Houston
is not as good offensively without Nico Collins, obviously, but
(16:01):
when he went out, they just have not They've just
been struggling. I also think New England's going to struggle
with Drake May starting, So I would lean to the
Patriots at home getting the six and a half and
the under thirty seven and a half. Lock that under end.
(16:23):
Washington Commanders on the road take it on the Baltimore
Ravens Commanders six and a half point underdogs over under
fifty one and a half. Kind of lean Washington getting
the six and a half. So we're going back to
back six and a half point dogs. Give me Jane
Daniels over two hundred and twenty six and a half
passing yards and over two hundred and seventy nine and
a half combo yards. The way you beat this Baltimore
(16:47):
team is through the air. Brian Robinson Junior is questionable
with a knee injury. I don't think Washington's gonna be
able to run the ball at all. I think they'll
get down early and it'll be a lot of Daniels
kind of scrambling around trying to make some plays.
Speaker 1 (17:00):
So we're gonna go with those. And uh yeah.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
I say Flowers receiving prop at fifty two yards. I
think that's a little enticing because Washington's kind of secondary
and that part of the secondary not very good. So
I could see Flowers having a good game, But don't
feel like super.
Speaker 1 (17:19):
Strong about that prop.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Cleveland Brown's on the road taking on the Philadelphia Eagles.
Brown's nine and a half point underdogs. I kind of
like Mari Cooper for over fifty one and a half
receiving yards. That's they're gonna be throwing it a lot,
and Cooper gets all the targets, and Eagles secondary is
not very good, and.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
So give me.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
Give me Cooper over fifty one and a half receiving
yards if you could stomach it. Deshaun Watson over one
hundred and ninety passing yards probably the lean I would
go too as well, But don't blame me if you
don't want to take that. But man, I would lean
with I just I would as far as a side here.
I I just don't think I could take the Browns.
Can't stomach it all right, my Chargers on the road
(18:04):
taking on the Broncos. Chargers are two and a half
point favorites, and we're going with the Chargers. Here's here's
a trend for you. I was and this is what
I'm doing. I'm moving the Broncos up to eight and
a half. So the Broncos are gonna be one of
my teaser legs because this is just gonna be a
low scoring game. So I don't think the Chargers is
(18:25):
gonna win by margin, but I like them under a
field goal here, So let me bring up this trend.
Speaker 1 (18:31):
This was absolutely pretty crazy.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
So a team off of a bye coming off a loss,
so the Chargers are off two straight losses then went
into a bye, Okay, when that team goes on the road,
versus a team coming off a win. So Denver won
last week against the Raiders, and the line is three
points are under Okay that road team. The Chargers are
(18:55):
thirty five and six against the spread. It's a pretty
pacific subset and a pretty startling number that is. That's
crazy and Road Division favorites after a buye thirty five
and fifteen. So I just think the Chargers know that
they need this game. I it sounds like both tackles
(19:16):
I think are gonna play. I think both defenses are
pretty solid. A little worried, you know, obviously about the
the Broncos really good defense at home.
Speaker 1 (19:25):
But I think that the Chargers are going to change
some things.
Speaker 2 (19:29):
Up after the buye and throw it around a little
bit more. So give me Herbert over one hundred and
eighty four passing yards. This is kind of a contrarian play.
There's a lot of people I'm seeing taking the under,
but I think I get the sense the Chargers are
gonna switch things up a little bit offensively and give
me Ladd McConkie over forty seven and.
Speaker 1 (19:46):
A half receiving yards.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
I think that Patzertan is gonna be guarding Josh Palmer
and Quintin Johnston more on the outside, and I think
Ladd is gonna be able to do his thing on
the inside. And I also think that they're just gonna
find more ways to get him the ball. I mean,
McConkie's really good. He's really good. And I think I
like rookies coming off a bye after they've had you know,
four or five games, especially when they've shown the ability
(20:11):
that they can play. I just think they have to
find ways to get.
Speaker 1 (20:14):
Him the football.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Herbert's a little bit healthier, the old line is getting
a little bit healthier. So those are the props I
like if from a Broncos side, I think maybe Camon
Sutton over forty six and a half receiving yards, it's
worth a look. Steelers on the road taking on the
Raiders the lines at three and a half, I could
only look to the to the Steelers here, it sounds
(20:37):
like Jacobe Myers might miss this game for the Raiders,
like they just have no weapons to throw to with
eight and O'Connell, like I had an ugly game pass
want nothing to do with it. Falcons on the road
five and a half point favorites at Carolina. I would
lead into Atlanta here. I also really like Tyler Algier
over thirty eight and a half rushing yards. Bijon has
been limited with a hamstring injury. They could be up
(20:59):
by multiple and if that's the case, Algier is gonna
get a lot of work and he's gonna fly by this.
We're gonna ladder it too. Kirk Cousins probably should have
a pretty good game here, depending on how much. Carolina
can score two fifty one and a half, pretty low number,
but I think I'm on the edge about pulling the
(21:21):
trigger on that one. And then Chewba Hubbard fifty nine
and a half rushing yards. That's that's what Carolina does.
So that's enticing as well. But I really like the
Lger one more than the other two. All Right, Detroit
on the road three and a half point favorites against
the Cowboys. Give me Detroit in this game, but a prop.
(21:42):
I mean, I love the props in this one. Give
me Dak over two hundred and eighty one and a
half passing yards. Look you, I've said it before, man,
there's all these teams are pass funnels or run funnels.
Detroit is a pass funnel and Dallas can't run the ball.
It's gonna be Dak all day. He's gonna throw for
three to fifty in this one. Gibbs and Montgomery both
(22:02):
at fifty eight and a half rushing yards, give me
Jamiir Gibbs. I kind of like both of them, but
give me Jamior Gibbs over fifty eight and a half,
and then give me Jalen Tolbert over forty three and
a half receiving yards and Turpin over twenty six and
a half receiving yards.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Look, they're gonna be thrown it all over.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
I think there's gonna be plenty of yardage to spread
the ball around. I wrote down a special on this one.
DAK three fifty and CD one fifty twelve to one
may be worth just a couple bucks. The Bengals minus
three and a half at the New York Giants. Uh,
this is gonna be a public Bengals side. Sharps on
(22:39):
the Giant side. But I think that I'm gonna go
with the Bengals here just because the spot. They're one
and four, absolutely need this game like blood the neighbors
is out again. They're coming off a big road wind.
Daniel Jones actually worse at home, and I think there's
more pressure at home on a time time game. I
(23:01):
don't like Cincinnati's defense, but I think it's a good matchup.
Not a lot for props in this game yet, because
there's a lot of injuries.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
On both sides.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
Buffalo Bills two and a half point underdogs on the road,
taking on the Jets or favorites. I'm taking on the Jets.
Give me the Jets plus two and a half. It's
not as much as the dead cat bounce for the
fired coach. It's more just all the injuries for Buffalo
that have me on the Jets. But I do really
like Breese Hall over fifty four and a half rushing yards.
This is going to be a get right game. He's
(23:34):
not going to continue to be this bad. I hope
and great matchup versus Buffalo. I think they're really going
to get him involved. I will have more props and plays,
I promise. So be sure to follow me at Sean
Rainey on social media and best of luck.
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