SUPER BOWL!

Shaun Rainey breaks down his Super Bowl bets and shares his rainmaker boosts on Sports Bet Montana

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Do you rent that? Young? Nah? No, I own it.
That's how I feel about this weekend. Pay him paid that,
Me and his money joy it, while last gambling gods
fickle bunch, oh so easily offended. Welcome into the Make
It Raindy Podcast. I'm your host, Sean Raindy, sponsored by

(00:21):
Sports Bet Montana super Bowl Pod. Yes we have made it,
only one more game left. I kind of need a
break from football, to be honest. I know a lot
of people get sad that football is ending, but I
really I start getting excited for some for some baseball,
for some March madness, things like that, and you need
a little break, need to have the Sundays freed up
a little bit. There's really no great way to go

(00:45):
about the super Bowl Pod because I have, I don't know,
twenty picks, random props, random a whole bunch of other
stuff throughout the pod, and I don't want to just,
you know, fire one bet after another at you. I mean,
I guess they could do that, but I'll just kind
of go through my strategy as far as like how

(01:07):
I divvy up the funds and different ways where you're
kind of looking at the game script and how it
could go As far as the number goes on sports Bet,
it's bounced around from one and a half to two
and a half. It's kind of a more of a
two with Kansas City favored. I mean to me, this

(01:28):
is just the classic. Like I think Philly as the
better roster overall better team, but Kansas City has Mahomes
and read so are you gonna do you want to
bet against Mahomes? I don't particularly want to. I'm sitting
in a nice spot because I took the in October.
I put twenty bucks on the Dodgers to win the

(01:49):
World Series and the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl,
twenty to win three fifteen. So I'm just sitting on that.
But what I have done is I have paired Philly
plus seven and a half with as many college basketball
and NBA games as I have been able to over
the last week and a half. And that's my favorite play.

(02:11):
Like kinsas City wins, I still it's gonna be by
one score, I think. So if you can pair Philly
with up to seven and a half with either some
money lines or however you want to do it, I
think that's kind of a smart idea. As far as
our rain maker goes. I have two rain makers this year.

(02:32):
So last year we did pretty well. We hit one
of the two rain makers and we hit any non
quarterback to throw a touchdown twenty five to one odds.
That is the same odds this year. So you know,
I had to throw a little pizza bet on it,
put a little five bucks on it. Why not. There's
a lot of these, you know, there's a lot of
long shot bets that with the Super Bowl are fun

(02:53):
to take. But here are my rain makers. These are
the sides and the some of the props that I
like the most. Uh So there's obviously some like random props,
like the exotic ones that are just kind of random,
and then there's the player props and things like that.
So I did one. It's called rain Maker Exotics. So

(03:14):
first off, when you're going there's all the Super Bowl
bets that are in kind of different places on sports bet.
So if you go into where the games are and
you you know, you click on Philly Casey and then
you know all the player props are in that thing.
But if you click onto Football League NFL, there's a

(03:37):
whole bunch of player prop specials there. And then if
you go into Futures football. Then there's a bunch of
Super Bowl. There's a Super Bowl Specials tab, so there's
three different tabs to find all these bets. You can't
find any, just hit me up, I'll walk you through it.
But those were all the three different ones are at.

(03:59):
So this is what I'm going with. I think my
favorite bet of the game. And so what I like.
What I'll do is I will range, you know, three
units to a quarter of a unit based on how
I feel about a pet. So these individual ones are
three unit ones for me going pretty heavy. With over

(04:22):
two and a half fourth down conversions, I think this
number is shy. I just think it's short. There were
ten conversions on AFC Championship Weekend and NFC Championship Weekend
combined between the two games five so you know, averaging
five each. Now, I know Washington they go forward on

(04:43):
fourth down a lot more than any other team, but
so does Philly, and I think Kansas City will go
forward as well. I just think that teams are learning
to be more and more aggressive. I think they know
that kicking long field goals, they're better off going for it.
And I think both of these teams are not gonna
want the other to have it. And I just think
teams are more aggressive now than they ever were. And

(05:03):
I don't think this number, I don't think it's reflected
in the line over two and a half was plus
one ten. I really like that, and yes you do
have to go for it on fourth down and convert it.
But the Bills were three for six. They got this
by themselves against the Chiefs. I think the Eagles are
gonna get at least two on their own with the

(05:24):
Toush push, and we just got to get the three.
Like ah man, I just I really like that one.
So we're pairing that with under six and a half
total punts again. Another another one that I think when
you look up punts per game, a lot of this

(05:44):
stuff isn't available on sports bet, but I've listened to
a lot of podcasts throughout the years and like throughout
the year, and like six and a half seven, seven
and a half eight is like a standard, like punts
per game prop and I just I think it's I
think the number needs to be lower with these good teams.

(06:04):
And I really like this because with Kansas City and Philly,
you're getting two teams that are pretty methodical and like
to run a lot of time of possession. Kansas City
is not super explosive. They're gonna score by going down
the field. Little chunk, little chunk, Little chunk, Philly likes

(06:25):
to run the ball. So I think if we get
one or two possessions where either team can possess it
for six to eight minutes, that's gonna lower the possessions
in this game, lower the chances for punts we had.
There were three punts total on Championship weekend, three total,
and we're at six and a half for the game.

(06:46):
I just really like it. I really like under six
and a half punts. And my other one it's correlated
with the punts. It's any punt to result in a touchback. No,
So obviously if I'm taking under six have punts, that
means that they're I'm hoping for, you know, six, five, four,
three two one punt. And so if there's not a

(07:08):
lot of punts, we just need none of them to
result in a touchback. Guess this one's a little bit
more random. But my thought process here is I could
see some punts early maybe you know, like a first possession,
maybe you get one first down or three and out early,
you're feeling things out. I think the game's gonna open
up a little bit more in the second half. But

(07:29):
I don't think either of these teams there are gonna
be punting once they get cross across the fifty unless
it's a fourth and ten, fourth and super long. I
just think these teams are gonna be pretty aggressive once they
cross the fifty and so I don't think that there's
gonna be many opportunities to punt it and smash it
into the end zone. So we're just going no there.

(07:52):
I also bet that individually it was plus one seventy
it's now minus one eighteen, so that is obviously moved
in our favor, so we like that. That's so it's
those three over two and a half fourth down conversions,
under six and a half punts, no punt to be
a touchback plus five eighty. So that's a fun little
party that we put together. My other one, which is
more of your traditional sides and totals, we're going Eagles

(08:14):
plus seven and a half. So moving the Eagles up
to seven and a half, just have to lose by
a touchdown or less. The game total over forty three
and a half Hey Chiefs twenty four to twenty win.
Boom covers both. We're going DeAndre Hopkins under fourteen and
a half receiving yards. He has really not been a
part of this offense. And this was going against a

(08:38):
Bills team last week. He had one catch for eleven
yards where they were They're week on the outside and
at corner, and that was the way that they were
attacking Buffalo's defense. And he still land one catch for
eleven yards. Like they were really focusing on Worthy Hollywood,
Browns was getting way more targets and now and then

(09:02):
you have you know, you have Juju, you have Watson,
you got Kelsey, you got Gray. They throw to their
running backs on like Philly, and the way to attack
Philadelphia's defense is not on the outside. They have two
good outside corners. The way to try and attack them
is in the middle of the field. That's not where
Hopkins likes to live. So we're going under fourteen and

(09:22):
a half receiving yards for Hopkins. We're run over fifty
four and a half receiving yards for Dallas Goddard. Kiss
of City gives up a lot to tight ends and
I like this because Philly they only throw it to
the three guys. They throw it to A J. Smith
or DeVante Smith, AJ Brown and Dallas Goddard, and I
just like Goddard's been a go to guy. I like

(09:43):
AJ Brown in this one too, but decided to go
with Goddard. And then we're going Jalen Hurts one touchdown,
just anytime touchdown. So we just need Jalen Hurts one
rushing touchdown or could be receiving touchdown, and that is
plus eight point fifty. Hurts His has like seventeen He's
hitting seventeen games of this seventeen touchdowns on the year.
So I like Jalaler Hurts to get a touchdown here.

(10:06):
So those are the two rain makers that we're going with.
As far as I'm like random props things like that,
I mean, I've placed, oh, I don't know, twenty five
bets probably on the Super Bowl, ranging from So when
I say, you know, like three units, like, I don't listen, man,

(10:27):
I'm a local sports reporter. I don't. It's not like
I have a ton of money. So I'm putting a
lot of fifty like seventy five to fifty bucks on
some of the each individual three unit, two unit straight
up bets and then like any non quarterback to throw
a touchdown plus twenty five hundred, like I'm just throwing

(10:48):
five bucks on it for fun. There's also the you
know who's gonna lead in passing yards, receiving yards, and
rushing yards. It's like mahomes aj Brown, Saquon Barkley eleven
to one odds. I'll throw five bucks on that. Things
like that, and then the rest is just like I'll throw,

(11:09):
you know, ten bucks on each one. So here are
the ones I've just I throw ten bucks on each one.
We'll call it good, have some fun. No missfield goal
or extra point plus one seventy. This is also kind
of correlates with I just think that there's not gonna
be a ton of field goal attempts or indoors kickers
are pretty good now, and I thought this just to

(11:32):
be closer to even odds, so I'll take the plus
one seventy that there's no Missus Kansas City longest punt
plus one oh eight. They're punter averages a longer distance
then Philly, and this one's just kind of fun to have.
So that's what I did. Largest lead under thirteen and

(11:52):
a half. I think it's gonna be a pretty close game,
So I'm just don't think it's gonna go over two
touchdowns for either side. And then if you other some
other field goal ones, I'm going longest field goal over
forty seven and a half yards and shortest field goal
over twenty six and a half yards. I just don't
think anyone's gonna take a short field goal here. I
think once you get inside the ten, I think these

(12:12):
teams are going for I don't think anyone's gonna do
a chip shot field goal. So I like shortest field
goal over twenty six and a half yards. Kind of
correlated with any quarterback to throw a touchdown at twenty
five to one odds over two and a half players
to attempt to pass plus one ninety, So hey, you
can have a quarterback it hurt, you just need a
running back or a wide receiver to throw one and
plus one ninety is kind of fun. The other one

(12:35):
I like is which I thought about throwing in the
rain maker as a two point conversion attempt, Yes, plus
one ten and for them to convert the two point
is plus two forty. Yes. I like both of those.
I can just see both both teams going for it.
And if I'm going if I'm putting twenty bucks on

(12:57):
no missed field goal or extra point and that misses, well,
then there's a good chance that if an extra point
is missed that we're getting a two point conversion. So
it's kind of you know, and both things could happen too,
So I kind of like those. My other kind of
this is a random one, but first touchdown length, the
first touchdown of the game, I'm going under seven and
a half yards. I just think that both of these

(13:20):
defenses are not going to give up too many explosive plays.
Both these teams like to run the ball. They're both
kind of methodic, methodical, So I'm going under seven and
a half yards for the first touchdown of the game.
I have done a little and this this hit in
the last Super Bowl. Philly to win the first half,
kensas City to win the game plus five to eighty.
I think those are pretty good odds. I also like

(13:40):
Philly first half, Philly first half if the game's tied,
so plus half a point minus won twenty five. So
even if the game's tied, you win the Philly first
half bet. I think that one's kind of fun. As
far as first touchdown bets go, I always, I always
like tight ends and quarterbacks in first touchdown props. I

(14:02):
think the running backs and the star wide receivers their
numbers are just two boosted up to not really give
you good value. Like I don't want to take Saquanit
plus four hundred for first touchdown, Like that's just not
I'm gonna put ten bucks on it twin forty with
something that random. I'd rather take Dallas Goddard at seventeen
to one odds, Noah Gray twenty five to one odds,

(14:25):
Patrick Mahomes seventeen to one odds. The ball is gonna
be in the quarterback's hands, and they also like tight ends,
so that's where I'm going. I'm going Goddard, Gray, Mahomes.
I'll put five on each and hope that a tight
end or Mahomes gets a touchdown. As far as player props,
like I mentioned Goddard over fifty four and a half
over four and a half receptions, Hopkins under I do

(14:48):
like Xavier Worthy rushing yards over six and a half.
I think they're gonna be able to get him the
ball a couple of times. Philly's interior defensive line pretty good,
and I think they could give Kansas City some issues,
So I think they're gonna want to try and get
Worthy out on the edge. I do also like Xavier
Weather over twenty and a half longest reception. He's been

(15:09):
over this in three out the last four. And then
to me, I think that there's some value in Jalen
Hurts over twenty six and a half pass attempts and
over two hundred and fifty two and a half combo yards.
I think that there's a world in which Against City
tries to stop Saqua and it makes Jalen beat them
kind of like he did in two years ago and

(15:30):
he threw for over three hundred yards and threw the
ball a bunch, And so I like Hurts over twenty
six and a half pass attempts as well. The other
fun one I kind of second half more points in
the first half minus went oh five. I just think
the game is gonna start out a little slow, and
then I think it could open up in the second half.

(15:51):
That's kind of all the ones I had. There's you know,
there's always like the the other random ones, but I
I don't know. I just don't Kansas City spreads it
around so much that it's hard to really find ones
for For the Chiefs. I'm not going to touch the
Kelsey stuff. I know he had a good game against

(16:15):
the Texans, but he looks slow in the other ones.
And I know that Eagles give up a ton of
zech Ertz, but I I'd rather just take Noah Gray
over ten yards to be honest. Yeah. So that's that's
the long list that I'm doing. I will if there
are any ones that pop out between now and then
as I do more research, you know, do another pod.

(16:35):
Also do a Baseball one here pretty soon, because I
think that there's an opportunity to buy in on some
baseball teams now before everyone starts betting on these win totals,
like take the Brewers, not a huge fan of the Cubs,
take the Padres under things like that. So we'll come

(16:57):
up with a Baseball one cone up soon. But that's
what I got for Super Bowl Sunday. Hope it's a
good one. Hope the Eagles win over the Chiefs. Run
all right, See you next time.