August 22, 2024 • 26 mins
Shaun Rainey breaks down the week 0 match up for Montana State vs New Mexico and a little bit of NDSU vs Colorado. Plus, NFL Futures bets he likes on Sports Bet Montana
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Do you rent that? Young Nah? No, I own it.
That's how I feel about this weekend. Pay him pay,
That's me and his money. Joy it wild, last gambling gods,
fickle bunch, oh so easily offended. And we are back.
Welcome to the Make It Rainy Podcast. I'm your host,
(00:21):
Sean Rainey, sponsored by sports Bet Montana and football folks.
It's finally here. We have Week zero Montana State taking
on New Mexico. I'm gonna be traveling down to Albuquerque
for the game. We're gonna be breaking that down as
well as go over some of the NFL futures that
stood out to me on sports Bet Montana. Not gonna
(00:42):
spend a ton of time diving into every single bet.
I mean, there are thousands of options that you can
go to as far as futures go, but I'll just
go and just list off some of the ones that
stood out to me. A few player props that I like,
a few teams that I like in a couple of
long shots. But first let's let's start with Week zero
Montana State taken on New Mexico. And this has been
(01:04):
kind of a fascinating thing to watch, so as of
right now, Montana State. They are thirteen and a half
point favorites. Thirteen and a half point favorites an FCS
team over an FBS team. Now, a couple things. Number one,
this is the most that a FCS team has ever
been favored over an FBS team in the history of
(01:26):
sports betting. So that's pretty interesting nugget right there. Another nugget.
In twenty eight games where an FCS opponent is a
three point dog or favored, they cover sixty five percent
of the time with an average four point per game
cover margin. And we're seeing all the money come in
on Montana State as this number. Originally when it was
(01:48):
posted a couple months ago, was Montana State minus four
and a half. It has moved and then it moved
to about eight and a half, and then it was
nine and a half, and in the last few days
it's gone from nine and a half to thirteen and
a half. I don't know if it's going to get
to that two touchdown mark. I would probably this is
(02:08):
how I'm thinking about it now. I think at the
eight and a half or lower, I was leading Montana State.
But now that it's ballooned all the way out to
thirteen and a half. I just don't. I just don't
know how you take Montana State at thirteen and a
half when it was at four and a half a
month ago, a month and a half ago. I can't.
I cannot endorse that when it's changed by nine points
(02:34):
over the course of fifty days. This was my sense.
I was in on Bronco menden Hall. He's the new
coach for New Mexico. I was listening in on the
zoom for his press conference. The sense that I got
so Bronco Mendenhall had a lot of success in fixing
(02:55):
up college football programs. He went to BUIU and the
Cougars were not very good. He turned them into a
perennially powerhouse in the Mountain West. And then he took
over Virginia, who was kind of struggling at the time,
and they were decent as well. So this is something
that he is used to going into a program that
has not been good. New Mexico is known for basketball,
(03:16):
not football. Their football program has been horrific. ESPN analytical
rankings have Montana State as the eighty fourth best team
in the country. New Mexico won seventy four. So I
think I mean, obviously Montana State being favored is correct.
I think Montana City is gonna win this game, But
now that we're all the way out to thirteen and
(03:37):
a half, I'm gonna have to side with New Mexico.
I just think that this is a This is like
a new era starter game for Bronco Mendenhall and that staff,
and I think that they are just gonna be really
juiced up and excited to play. Now, will they kind
(03:58):
of wear down and once they get into the meat
of a Mountain West schedule, will they you know, start
fast and maybe tail off throughout the season, Like who knows.
I don't know how they're gonna be throughout the year.
They're probably gonna still be pretty bad. But I think
that there's just so much anticipation this game. He talked about.
He knows that the fan base is kind of gonna
start judging them in this new staff and era off
(04:18):
of this first game. And the other thing like Montana
State center Justice Perkins, he got hurt in fall camp
and he was the most experienced offensive lineman on that team,
along with Marcus Ware who now will kick into right guard.
Colesine moves from guard to center, So you're having a
little bit of shuffling on the offensive line from Montana State,
(04:40):
and so I think that that's a significant injury. And
then the other part of this is Tommy Mollot. He
has been open with that. He used to always want
the home run. He was good every time he took off,
every time he was making a play, he was trying
to score a touchdown, taking hits, not running out of bounds,
that kind of thing. I think they know. I think
the cat know that the most important thing about their
(05:03):
entire season is his health. And he talked about running
out of bounds, maybe getting down, not taking hits and
things of that nature. And so I just think that
that's gonna change a little bit as far as offensively goes,
just because you're not gonna get all those little extra yards,
the big you know, things like that. And I think
that could play a part in a you know, a
(05:26):
point or two when it comes to the line. And
so I'm gonna take New Mexico plus thirteen and a half.
I might since it's moved so much, I might just
give it another day if I were you, and and
see if it gets out to that. Obviously, the key
number of fourteen and a half. That would be really nice.
Another thing I was looking into doing, Oh and the
over runners fifty four and a half. I'm kind of
(05:48):
leaning to the under fifty four and a half. So
this is what we're gonna do. As far as format
of the podcast this year, I'm gonna do the same thing.
I'm gonna go through all of my big sky Katz
and Griz picks NFL picks. I'm debating on. Obviously, Zach Kaplan,
who joined me the last couple of years, is gone.
I was debating on reaching out to him to see
if he wanted to zoom in and still do the pod,
(06:10):
or we have this producer's names Nick. He likes gambling,
but he knows nothing of what he's doing or talking about.
And I was almost going to use him as like
an example of kind of like your average Joe who
likes he wants to put five bucks down on a
parlane and win one hundred dollars, the things that you
aren't supposed to do as a gambler long term. And
(06:30):
he's also kind of entertaining, So it's debating on bringing
him on and kind of like it can be like
a live lesson as we go about it, because he's
going to think, like I think a lot of the
people that are listening might think, I think most of
you are smarter than he is. But there's a lot
of people out there that just want to bet small
(06:51):
to win big, and it could be a just like
a live lesson and he could be the person that
I can kind of learn and grow as we as
we go along. And so it's either that or I'm
just going to do them all by myself. So that
(07:12):
will be kind of the format moving forward. But we
will have a podcast every single week going through NFL
because that is kind of my specialty and with Big
Sky stuff, and we'll be tracking every single pick, all
all out in the open. And when I am I
do my record, we're talking about all picks that are
(07:32):
minus one twenty five are better. I We don't give
out minus won seventy picks and count him as a
one to zero record Like that is such bs. There's
a lot of people out there in the Twitter sphere
and social media that do that and it's just so
corrupt it drives me nuts. And so and of course
follow me on Twitter at Sean Rainey, and I will
(07:53):
be giving out a lot of you know, props and
plays and teasers and all that kind of stuff. So
I would wait a day on the on the New
Mexico line, see if it gets the fourteen and a half.
Otherwise I'm gonna take thirteen and a half and probably
the under fifty four and a half. The other thing
I was maybe looking to do. Since this number has
gotten all the way out to thirteen and a half,
(08:16):
I could get New Mexico at plus twenty and a half,
and I kind of want to pair it with North
Dakota State. There's another lit FCS taken on Colorado. They
are eight and a half point underdogs, and I can
move that all the way up to sixteen and a half.
(08:38):
So if you take New Mexico plus twenty and a
half North Dakota State plus sixteen and a half, that
gets you plus one oh seven and that's kind of fun.
Or you know, if you if you are a Montana
State fan and you will you don't want to bet
against the other team, then you can go into that
go into the alternate spread. Take Montana State minus six
(09:00):
and a half and that is minus two fifty and
then you click into the Every time you could just
click into the game on sports bet, whether it's a
kiosk or like what I like to do is I
like to go on the website at home and map
out my bets just to see what the odds are.
You could even print out the QR codes and then
(09:22):
kind of scan it when you get to the kiosk,
so you're not taking a bunch of time. But a
Montana State minus six and a half, North Dakota State
plus sixteen and a half is plus one oh three.
So I kind of like doing either one of those
bets where it's kind of hey, you're rooting for the
FCS versus the FBS, and you could either take New
(09:42):
Mexico and push them all the way up to plus
twenty and a half. I just kind of like prefer
that maybe more than the Montana State minus six and
a half, just because we're getting so many points now
at thirteen and a half, that just moving it up
another touchdown, Like New Mexico, we're really gonna lose by
three touchdowns at home. That's a lot of points. And
then you get North Coota State plus sixteen and a
(10:02):
half and see if they could hang in there with
Colorado and that'll be kind of a fun game to
root for. And then you can since this game is
the is a what time is this one at? Since
that North Dakota State game is five days later, you
(10:23):
could you could even pair if you wanted to Montana
State minus six and a half with North Dakota State
and New Mexico plus twenty and a half with North Dakota
State and then have two tickets and hope it lands
in the middle, and then you could hedge out. There's
all sorts of different ways that you could do it,
but I'm gonna I'm gonna take New Mexico plus twenty
and a half and pair it with North Dakota State
(10:43):
plus sixteen and a half at plus one oh seven,
and then if the if that first one hits, then
you could take Colorado at the minus minus nine and
a half and you have basically a ten to sixteen
six point win. Though that you could hit both if
you wanted to. So that's how I'm gonna play a
(11:04):
week zero in college football. All right, Now, let's talk
a little NFL. Let me bring up the futures thing. Now,
I went through every single one of these and I'm
gonna go through just the ones that kind of stood
out to me. Here's the thing about futures bets, right,
I I kind of like, if I'm gonna, if I'm
(11:25):
gonna tie up my money for five six months, I
kind of like just taking long shots and hoping that
they get off to good starts and that then you
know you're holding onto a you know, ten dollars ticket
to win fifty or one hundred or whatever it is,
rather than like even money bets like a lot of
(11:45):
like team total over unders like some of them. If
I if I think that there's a significant edge, that
I like doing it. But otherwise, if I'm gonna if
I'm gonna take one hundred dollars and place them in
place and make like, you know, five to ten bets
with that or how much you know, or two or
three or whatever, if I'm gonna tie up one hundred bucks,
I'd rather just have that hundred dollars in week one
(12:06):
because I can win it in week one and then
build it from there, rather than it just it just
sit there for six months. I don't know. That's just
kind of me personally. So if I'm gonna make a
future it's gonna be kind of a high payout one.
So well, a lot of these are gonna be more
kind of fun, like put a few bucks on it,
kind of high high payoff bets. And it starts with
Super Bowl. You always got Chiefs, Niners, Ravens at the top.
(12:30):
I have not placed any Super Bowl bets except for
the Houston Texans. I did it immediately when they traded
for Stefan Diggs. Now, this is the thing that about
sports bet Montana that you can take advantage of, Like
when breaking news happens, it takes a while for things
to adjust. If you're quick with it, you can you
(12:50):
can have a chance to make some money. So I
got the Houston Texans at plus twenty five hundred to
win the Super Bowl right when that trade happened. Now
they're plus sixteen fifty. So you're talking about a huge
difference right now. If I had to put ten bucks
down on any of these teams, I'm kind of looking
at the Lions at plus twelve fifty, the Jets at
(13:12):
plus sixteen hundred, and the Packers at plus nineteen hundred.
Those are kind of the three teams that are you know,
put in ten bucks, you're gonna win one hundred and
twenty five or more on each one of those that has,
you know, in my eyes, kind of a decent value.
All right, now, let's go down to some of the
division winners. Kind of go over that briefly. The AFC East,
(13:33):
you got the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Bill's, Jets, Dolphins,
all separated from you know, plus one eighty plus two hundred.
For me, this is a division I'm kind of staying
away from. If I had to put ten bucks on something,
it's probably the New York Jets. The two things that
I always look at when it comes to futures are
a couple things coach, quarterback, offensive line, and then how
(13:55):
did the team do last year and what's different about
it this year. The Jets obviously have had terrible quarterback
play atrocious quarterback play, and they've been a solid decent team.
So I just think that if Rogers can just be
in the ten to fifteen range of quarterback, that the
Jets have the ability to be a lot better. The Bills.
(14:15):
They're probably gonna be about the same as last year,
the Dolphins probably about the same as last year. So
if I had to bet on one team being different
than last year and having that high upside, it'd probably
be the New York Jets. AFC South. Give me the
Houston Texans at plus one oh five. I don't trust
Anthony Richardson enough with the Colts. The Jags are kind
(14:35):
of the Jags. I just think the Texans they're kind
of going all in with the rookie quarterback deal, making
moves to improve their defense, and I like Strauden company.
So at plus one oh five, I'm taking the Texans.
AFC West. It's the Chiefs of minus two thirty three.
I may that's kind of just free money. I don't
think the Chargers or the Raiders or anybody the Broncos
(14:57):
are gonna be able to contend, so I'm just gonna
take that. NFC East, I really like the Eagles minus
won twenty two. Dallas, I think they're gonna be I
think everyone's kind of off on them. I think they're
gonna be more solid then people realize. I think they'll
they're gonna be kind of like the Dolphins, right, They're
gonna be that good regular season team and then they're
not gonna be good later in the year, and that's
when you can fade them. But I still think they're
(15:19):
gonna be a solid regular season team, but I think
the Eagles are poised to make a big run and
play a lot better this year. You're going You're going
from a slow offense to one now where they're gonna
be more up tempo. They're gonna be throwing the ball.
I like the Dots and Johan Dotson trade. Now they
have three really good wide receivers, and I think they've
made the moves in the secondary to bolster that defense.
(15:42):
As far as the NFC North, this is gonna be
a really fun division. But give me the Lions at
plus one thirty five. I'm really high on the Lions
this year. They have a good schedule and I think
they're just building towards this. I think their offense is
gonna be just as good as it has been, and
then they've made a lot of moves to bolster the defense,
which was really bad last year, So I think their
(16:03):
offense is gonna be the same. I think their defense
can take a big step forward, and I just think
they're they're poised to be really good yet again, I
also really do like the Green Bay Packers, But to me,
with the Packers, I'm more taking their ceiling than anything.
I think, if they're really good, it means the defense
got a little bit better, and that Jordan Love and
(16:23):
all those young wide receivers took that next leap and
Jordan Love ascends into a top five quarterback, and if
that does happen, I'd rather just take their ceiling than
the division odds at plus two to twenty five NFC
South Atlanta Falcons minus one forty seven, I just don't
see any value in this division. Not gonna take it.
Same thing with the NFC West Niners minus one ninety two.
(16:46):
Don't really want to touch it, rams Seahawks. I think
both could be solid teams, but you're not sure what
you're gonna get. Cardinals will be better, but I just
don't really want to take the Niners at minus one
ninety two as far as MVP goes, No, No, I don't
really like the board all that much. You got obviously
Mahomes Alan CJ. Stroud. I mean you can maybe throw
(17:08):
a couple of bucks on Jordan Love at plus fourteen
fifty or Jalen Hurts at plus fourteen fifty. Those are
kind of the two that I would see being decent bets.
But I just don't. I'm just not super high on
really seeing any value on MVP, all right, And then
I just I'm not going to go down the list
here on sports bet. I'm just going to go down
the list that I have on my phone as far
(17:29):
as bets that I kind of liked and that I
have placed every single bet. That everything I go over
with with you guys are bets that I have personally made.
I don't I don't suggest anything that I'm not playing personally.
So I'm riding with you when I give these out. Okay,
I'm not a pro better. I never claim to be
a pro better, but I have one in the NFL
(17:52):
almost every single year that I've been doing this, especially
in the last four or five years when we've been
tracking every single bet. I started with two hundred I
like starting with cash, so I had I put in said,
I said aside two hundred dollars last year, keep it
in my drawer, and I use that week one and
try and build it up. And I ended up with
like thirteen hundred bucks at the end of the year. Which, listen,
(18:16):
I don't bet a lot. I'm a sports journalist. So
the bank account isn't all that high. I'm also kind
of a flat better, which means I usually bet between
ten and twenty dollars every single bet, and I don't
make like huge bets and I don't make little bets.
I kind of stay the same. I'm minute for the
long term, and I try and write it out. We'll
go through some of those tips and tricks a little
(18:36):
bit more in a different episode, but that's just kind
of my style. But being able to go from two
hundred bucks at thirteen, it's been that's I was very
proud of that, and that's it's hard to do. It
was a grind. Obviously, there was weeks where we did
not win, but overall we did win, and I will
have a bunch of rain Maker parlays and boosts throughout
the year. Last year we were plus twenty seven thousand
(18:56):
dollars to the public with those three t parlays that
are boosted on sports bet Montana. I'll have more details
about that. We're gonna probably have tu Per Week this
NFL season, so that'll be a lot of fun. Okay,
Offensive Player of the Year I wrote down two. I'm
kind of I'm just I'm high on Breeze Hall this year.
(19:18):
I think with having Aaron Rodgers in an actual passing
attack and a little bit better offensive line, I think
he could have a good season. So I have him
at plus fourteen fifty and I have Devon a Chan
at plus fifty four hundred. Look a Chan, He's got
the explosiveness. He could just go bananas. And at fifty
four to one, why not throw five bucks on it.
Coach of the Year, I got Mike McDonald with Seattle
(19:42):
plus fourteen to fifty. I like the change here. I
think defensively he's gonna be able to fix a lot
of what Seattle struggled with. And I like the new
offensive coordinator coming over from Washington. I think it fits
their style. I think it fits with their good at
that you have three good receivers. I think if they
(20:04):
go up tempo and or passing the ball more, I
think that could help them offensively. And I like that
first year coach. I also Dan Campbell at twenty two hundred.
I just think I think the Lions will have the
best record in the NFC this year, and so Dan
Campbell being the mix and at plus twenty two hundred,
let me take that offensive Rookie of the Year. Now,
(20:25):
with these markets, a lot of it is like how
am I divving up the money? Right? So let's say
I have one hundred bucks. Okay, I'm probably gonna put
half of it on Caleb Williams at plus one twenty five.
I know it's like even money, but I just think
that he has all the tools, and he's got the
(20:46):
wide receivers and the play to be really really good.
He's the quarterback, So a wide receiver is gonna have
to play out of their freaking minds to beat a
quarterback in Rookie of the Year. So I'm gonna go
with Cab Williams. The other couple that I like, I
think Marvin Harrison's gonna have a big year, But at
plus six twenty five, I just I think the numbers
(21:08):
should be a little bit bigger. I think Elite Neighbors
is an absolute stud. So I took a little bit
of him at plus twelve hundred, and this is gonna
be a Homer pick. But Lad mcconkeye at plus thirty
six hundred, I mean he's gonna be the number one
option for Justin Herbert, and so I could see him
easily being like that slock guy, and he could catch
(21:29):
a hundred balls and for twelve hundred and thirteen hundred yards.
So at thirty six one hundred thirty six to one,
I just put a couple couple bets there, Okay, to
make the playoffs, yes and nos. I have the Bears no.
At minus one eleven. This is more a I really
like the Lions and the Packers. And when you're looking
at the NFC six seven teams, you're looking Eagles, Cowboys,
(21:56):
potentially Niners, Bears, Packers, one from the South. I just
don't know if there's enough. I think the Seahawks of
the Rams, one of those two will be in the
mix and probably be better than the Bears. So if
I'm getting even money, I don't think I think the
Bears will be much improved. I think they're two years away.
So I had Bears no, and I have Browns and
(22:18):
Seahawks Yes at plus one forty five and plus one eighty.
Look the Browns, I don't everyone's kind of moving off
of them, and I just they had you know, this
is all about Deshaun Watson, but they had some bad
quarterback play before they went to Flacco last year. So
if I'm getting plus one forty five for them to
make the playoffs, I kind of like that. In Seattle
(22:39):
at plus one eighty, I think they could sneak in
there and get into the playoffs. Team total, I have
the Lions over ten and a half wins. I love
this bet. And I have the Lions plus eight hundred
to have the most wins in the NFL. Just high
the lines. I think they're gonna be really fun. All
right now. It's a bunch of props and random ones,
(23:01):
so I'm just gonna fly through these. I also got
to get out of here. Caleb Williams most rookie passing
yards minus won twenty five. I just I like it.
I think some of these other rookies could have good years,
but they're not gonna be passing the ball as much
as him. I really like this one longest field goal
over sixty two and a half yards. We've they've they've
already beat this in the preseason minus one of five.
(23:23):
I love it. B Jon Robinson over six and a
half touchdowns. I like that a lot. The offense is
gonna be better, he's gonna get more chances, and you
don't have a running quarterback in Desmond Ritter that stole
a few rushing touchdowns away from him last year. Jalen
Wattle over nine ninety nine and a half receiving yards.
He went over this last year, missed a lot of games.
(23:44):
He had a monster year two years ago. I just
think he's really good. I think he I like getting
these depressed numbers with guys that were banged up last year.
He's gonna go for over a thousand. I like Dalton
kincaid receptions and receiving yards. His receptions was seventy six
and a half in like seven hundred and something yards.
I like both of those. The last winless team, the
(24:06):
Patriots plus six hundred. Their schedule is brutal, and if
they don't beat the Seahawks at home in Week two,
which I think Seattle's much better, I really like that
at plus six hundred, most interceptions I took Will Levis
plus twelve fifty. I think he's gonna have the reins.
He's gonna be able to he's gonna play all season.
They're gonna be throwing the ball around a little bit,
and he's proven to like want to throw the ball
(24:28):
downfield to be a gunslinger. So give me Will Levis
most interceptions, most receiving yards. It's all the usual sub
suspects up top. So Marvin Harrison Junior at plus twenty
five hundred worth a couple bucks in my opinion. Most
rushing yards, I have Breece Hall plus eight hundred and
eighth Han at plus two thousand this one. I was
(24:49):
very confused by Daniel Jones over eight and a half interceptions.
I mean he might get that in the first month
of the season. I mean he's gonna play even if
he's bad. They're not. I don't think they're gonna go
to Devido right away. I don't understand why that number
is so low. C J. Stroud over forty one four
one hundred and fifty passing yards. He did this last
(25:12):
year and missed a handful of games. Gino Smith over
thirty four fifty passing yards, Nico Collins over one thousand
and fifty receiving yards, and Isaiah Pacheco over six and
a half touchdowns. I think he is gonna feast this
year and score a lot and be very very good.
(25:33):
So those are all the plays that I like. Oh. CJ.
Shoud over five thousand passing yards. Plus seven to fifty.
That one's kind of fun. I just think Ceedars Shroud's
in for a big year. Okay, I know I ran
through those really really fast. If you have any questions,
reach out to me on social media. We'll be doing
another one of these, probably each week leading up because
now we're in college football, so we'll touch on maybe
(25:55):
some more NFL stuff, go over some strategies and tips
and things like that before the NFL season while we
have college football for a couple weeks before we get going.
But have a great weekend, everybody, go Kats and Grizz.
I think it's gonna be a really fun year for
all the Treasure State fans out there. And listen, tell
people about the podcast. I don't really push the subscribing
and all that kind of crap. I'm like, if you
(26:16):
like it, you'll listen to it. If not, then you don't,
you know whatever. But I'm kind of the only person
in the state of Montana that's doing this, so all
the support is appreciated. See you guys,
Do you rent that? Young Nah? No, I own it.
That's how I feel about this weekend. Pay him pay,
That's me and his money. Joy it wild, last gambling gods,
fickle bunch, oh so easily offended. And we are back.
Welcome to the Make It Rainy Podcast. I'm your host,
(00:21):
Sean Rainey, sponsored by sports Bet Montana and football folks.
It's finally here. We have Week zero Montana State taking
on New Mexico. I'm gonna be traveling down to Albuquerque
for the game. We're gonna be breaking that down as
well as go over some of the NFL futures that
stood out to me on sports Bet Montana. Not gonna
(00:42):
spend a ton of time diving into every single bet.
I mean, there are thousands of options that you can
go to as far as futures go, but I'll just
go and just list off some of the ones that
stood out to me. A few player props that I like,
a few teams that I like in a couple of
long shots. But first let's let's start with Week zero
Montana State taken on New Mexico. And this has been
(01:04):
kind of a fascinating thing to watch, so as of
right now, Montana State. They are thirteen and a half
point favorites. Thirteen and a half point favorites an FCS
team over an FBS team. Now, a couple things. Number one,
this is the most that a FCS team has ever
been favored over an FBS team in the history of
(01:26):
sports betting. So that's pretty interesting nugget right there. Another nugget.
In twenty eight games where an FCS opponent is a
three point dog or favored, they cover sixty five percent
of the time with an average four point per game
cover margin. And we're seeing all the money come in
on Montana State as this number. Originally when it was
(01:48):
posted a couple months ago, was Montana State minus four
and a half. It has moved and then it moved
to about eight and a half, and then it was
nine and a half, and in the last few days
it's gone from nine and a half to thirteen and
a half. I don't know if it's going to get
to that two touchdown mark. I would probably this is
(02:08):
how I'm thinking about it now. I think at the
eight and a half or lower, I was leading Montana State.
But now that it's ballooned all the way out to
thirteen and a half. I just don't. I just don't
know how you take Montana State at thirteen and a
half when it was at four and a half a
month ago, a month and a half ago. I can't.
I cannot endorse that when it's changed by nine points
(02:34):
over the course of fifty days. This was my sense.
I was in on Bronco menden Hall. He's the new
coach for New Mexico. I was listening in on the
zoom for his press conference. The sense that I got
so Bronco Mendenhall had a lot of success in fixing
(02:55):
up college football programs. He went to BUIU and the
Cougars were not very good. He turned them into a
perennially powerhouse in the Mountain West. And then he took
over Virginia, who was kind of struggling at the time,
and they were decent as well. So this is something
that he is used to going into a program that
has not been good. New Mexico is known for basketball,
(03:16):
not football. Their football program has been horrific. ESPN analytical
rankings have Montana State as the eighty fourth best team
in the country. New Mexico won seventy four. So I
think I mean, obviously Montana State being favored is correct.
I think Montana City is gonna win this game, But
now that we're all the way out to thirteen and
(03:37):
a half, I'm gonna have to side with New Mexico.
I just think that this is a This is like
a new era starter game for Bronco Mendenhall and that staff,
and I think that they are just gonna be really
juiced up and excited to play. Now, will they kind
(03:58):
of wear down and once they get into the meat
of a Mountain West schedule, will they you know, start
fast and maybe tail off throughout the season, Like who knows.
I don't know how they're gonna be throughout the year.
They're probably gonna still be pretty bad. But I think
that there's just so much anticipation this game. He talked about.
He knows that the fan base is kind of gonna
start judging them in this new staff and era off
(04:18):
of this first game. And the other thing like Montana
State center Justice Perkins, he got hurt in fall camp
and he was the most experienced offensive lineman on that team,
along with Marcus Ware who now will kick into right guard.
Colesine moves from guard to center, So you're having a
little bit of shuffling on the offensive line from Montana State,
(04:40):
and so I think that that's a significant injury. And
then the other part of this is Tommy Mollot. He
has been open with that. He used to always want
the home run. He was good every time he took off,
every time he was making a play, he was trying
to score a touchdown, taking hits, not running out of bounds,
that kind of thing. I think they know. I think
the cat know that the most important thing about their
(05:03):
entire season is his health. And he talked about running
out of bounds, maybe getting down, not taking hits and
things of that nature. And so I just think that
that's gonna change a little bit as far as offensively goes,
just because you're not gonna get all those little extra yards,
the big you know, things like that. And I think
that could play a part in a you know, a
(05:26):
point or two when it comes to the line. And
so I'm gonna take New Mexico plus thirteen and a half.
I might since it's moved so much, I might just
give it another day if I were you, and and
see if it gets out to that. Obviously, the key
number of fourteen and a half. That would be really nice.
Another thing I was looking into doing, Oh and the
over runners fifty four and a half. I'm kind of
(05:48):
leaning to the under fifty four and a half. So
this is what we're gonna do. As far as format
of the podcast this year, I'm gonna do the same thing.
I'm gonna go through all of my big sky Katz
and Griz picks NFL picks. I'm debating on. Obviously, Zach Kaplan,
who joined me the last couple of years, is gone.
I was debating on reaching out to him to see
if he wanted to zoom in and still do the pod,
(06:10):
or we have this producer's names Nick. He likes gambling,
but he knows nothing of what he's doing or talking about.
And I was almost going to use him as like
an example of kind of like your average Joe who
likes he wants to put five bucks down on a
parlane and win one hundred dollars, the things that you
aren't supposed to do as a gambler long term. And
(06:30):
he's also kind of entertaining, So it's debating on bringing
him on and kind of like it can be like
a live lesson as we go about it, because he's
going to think, like I think a lot of the
people that are listening might think, I think most of
you are smarter than he is. But there's a lot
of people out there that just want to bet small
(06:51):
to win big, and it could be a just like
a live lesson and he could be the person that
I can kind of learn and grow as we as
we go along. And so it's either that or I'm
just going to do them all by myself. So that
(07:12):
will be kind of the format moving forward. But we
will have a podcast every single week going through NFL
because that is kind of my specialty and with Big
Sky stuff, and we'll be tracking every single pick, all
all out in the open. And when I am I
do my record, we're talking about all picks that are
(07:32):
minus one twenty five are better. I We don't give
out minus won seventy picks and count him as a
one to zero record Like that is such bs. There's
a lot of people out there in the Twitter sphere
and social media that do that and it's just so
corrupt it drives me nuts. And so and of course
follow me on Twitter at Sean Rainey, and I will
(07:53):
be giving out a lot of you know, props and
plays and teasers and all that kind of stuff. So
I would wait a day on the on the New
Mexico line, see if it gets the fourteen and a half.
Otherwise I'm gonna take thirteen and a half and probably
the under fifty four and a half. The other thing
I was maybe looking to do. Since this number has
gotten all the way out to thirteen and a half,
(08:16):
I could get New Mexico at plus twenty and a half,
and I kind of want to pair it with North
Dakota State. There's another lit FCS taken on Colorado. They
are eight and a half point underdogs, and I can
move that all the way up to sixteen and a half.
(08:38):
So if you take New Mexico plus twenty and a
half North Dakota State plus sixteen and a half, that
gets you plus one oh seven and that's kind of fun.
Or you know, if you if you are a Montana
State fan and you will you don't want to bet
against the other team, then you can go into that
go into the alternate spread. Take Montana State minus six
(09:00):
and a half and that is minus two fifty and
then you click into the Every time you could just
click into the game on sports bet, whether it's a
kiosk or like what I like to do is I
like to go on the website at home and map
out my bets just to see what the odds are.
You could even print out the QR codes and then
(09:22):
kind of scan it when you get to the kiosk,
so you're not taking a bunch of time. But a
Montana State minus six and a half, North Dakota State
plus sixteen and a half is plus one oh three.
So I kind of like doing either one of those
bets where it's kind of hey, you're rooting for the
FCS versus the FBS, and you could either take New
(09:42):
Mexico and push them all the way up to plus
twenty and a half. I just kind of like prefer
that maybe more than the Montana State minus six and
a half, just because we're getting so many points now
at thirteen and a half, that just moving it up
another touchdown, Like New Mexico, we're really gonna lose by
three touchdowns at home. That's a lot of points. And
then you get North Coota State plus sixteen and a
(10:02):
half and see if they could hang in there with
Colorado and that'll be kind of a fun game to
root for. And then you can since this game is
the is a what time is this one at? Since
that North Dakota State game is five days later, you
(10:23):
could you could even pair if you wanted to Montana
State minus six and a half with North Dakota State
and New Mexico plus twenty and a half with North Dakota
State and then have two tickets and hope it lands
in the middle, and then you could hedge out. There's
all sorts of different ways that you could do it,
but I'm gonna I'm gonna take New Mexico plus twenty
and a half and pair it with North Dakota State
(10:43):
plus sixteen and a half at plus one oh seven,
and then if the if that first one hits, then
you could take Colorado at the minus minus nine and
a half and you have basically a ten to sixteen
six point win. Though that you could hit both if
you wanted to. So that's how I'm gonna play a
(11:04):
week zero in college football. All right, Now, let's talk
a little NFL. Let me bring up the futures thing. Now,
I went through every single one of these and I'm
gonna go through just the ones that kind of stood
out to me. Here's the thing about futures bets, right,
I I kind of like, if I'm gonna, if I'm
(11:25):
gonna tie up my money for five six months, I
kind of like just taking long shots and hoping that
they get off to good starts and that then you
know you're holding onto a you know, ten dollars ticket
to win fifty or one hundred or whatever it is,
rather than like even money bets like a lot of
(11:45):
like team total over unders like some of them. If
I if I think that there's a significant edge, that
I like doing it. But otherwise, if I'm gonna if
I'm gonna take one hundred dollars and place them in
place and make like, you know, five to ten bets
with that or how much you know, or two or
three or whatever, if I'm gonna tie up one hundred bucks,
I'd rather just have that hundred dollars in week one
(12:06):
because I can win it in week one and then
build it from there, rather than it just it just
sit there for six months. I don't know. That's just
kind of me personally. So if I'm gonna make a
future it's gonna be kind of a high payout one.
So well, a lot of these are gonna be more
kind of fun, like put a few bucks on it,
kind of high high payoff bets. And it starts with
Super Bowl. You always got Chiefs, Niners, Ravens at the top.
(12:30):
I have not placed any Super Bowl bets except for
the Houston Texans. I did it immediately when they traded
for Stefan Diggs. Now, this is the thing that about
sports bet Montana that you can take advantage of, Like
when breaking news happens, it takes a while for things
to adjust. If you're quick with it, you can you
(12:50):
can have a chance to make some money. So I
got the Houston Texans at plus twenty five hundred to
win the Super Bowl right when that trade happened. Now
they're plus sixteen fifty. So you're talking about a huge
difference right now. If I had to put ten bucks
down on any of these teams, I'm kind of looking
at the Lions at plus twelve fifty, the Jets at
(13:12):
plus sixteen hundred, and the Packers at plus nineteen hundred.
Those are kind of the three teams that are you know,
put in ten bucks, you're gonna win one hundred and
twenty five or more on each one of those that has,
you know, in my eyes, kind of a decent value.
All right, now, let's go down to some of the
division winners. Kind of go over that briefly. The AFC East,
(13:33):
you got the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Bill's, Jets, Dolphins,
all separated from you know, plus one eighty plus two hundred.
For me, this is a division I'm kind of staying
away from. If I had to put ten bucks on something,
it's probably the New York Jets. The two things that
I always look at when it comes to futures are
a couple things coach, quarterback, offensive line, and then how
(13:55):
did the team do last year and what's different about
it this year. The Jets obviously have had terrible quarterback
play atrocious quarterback play, and they've been a solid decent team.
So I just think that if Rogers can just be
in the ten to fifteen range of quarterback, that the
Jets have the ability to be a lot better. The Bills.
(14:15):
They're probably gonna be about the same as last year,
the Dolphins probably about the same as last year. So
if I had to bet on one team being different
than last year and having that high upside, it'd probably
be the New York Jets. AFC South. Give me the
Houston Texans at plus one oh five. I don't trust
Anthony Richardson enough with the Colts. The Jags are kind
(14:35):
of the Jags. I just think the Texans they're kind
of going all in with the rookie quarterback deal, making
moves to improve their defense, and I like Strauden company.
So at plus one oh five, I'm taking the Texans.
AFC West. It's the Chiefs of minus two thirty three.
I may that's kind of just free money. I don't
think the Chargers or the Raiders or anybody the Broncos
(14:57):
are gonna be able to contend, so I'm just gonna
take that. NFC East, I really like the Eagles minus
won twenty two. Dallas, I think they're gonna be I
think everyone's kind of off on them. I think they're
gonna be more solid then people realize. I think they'll
they're gonna be kind of like the Dolphins, right, They're
gonna be that good regular season team and then they're
not gonna be good later in the year, and that's
when you can fade them. But I still think they're
(15:19):
gonna be a solid regular season team, but I think
the Eagles are poised to make a big run and
play a lot better this year. You're going You're going
from a slow offense to one now where they're gonna
be more up tempo. They're gonna be throwing the ball.
I like the Dots and Johan Dotson trade. Now they
have three really good wide receivers, and I think they've
made the moves in the secondary to bolster that defense.
(15:42):
As far as the NFC North, this is gonna be
a really fun division. But give me the Lions at
plus one thirty five. I'm really high on the Lions
this year. They have a good schedule and I think
they're just building towards this. I think their offense is
gonna be just as good as it has been, and
then they've made a lot of moves to bolster the defense,
which was really bad last year, So I think their
(16:03):
offense is gonna be the same. I think their defense
can take a big step forward, and I just think
they're they're poised to be really good yet again, I
also really do like the Green Bay Packers, But to me,
with the Packers, I'm more taking their ceiling than anything.
I think, if they're really good, it means the defense
got a little bit better, and that Jordan Love and
(16:23):
all those young wide receivers took that next leap and
Jordan Love ascends into a top five quarterback, and if
that does happen, I'd rather just take their ceiling than
the division odds at plus two to twenty five NFC
South Atlanta Falcons minus one forty seven, I just don't
see any value in this division. Not gonna take it.
Same thing with the NFC West Niners minus one ninety two.
(16:46):
Don't really want to touch it, rams Seahawks. I think
both could be solid teams, but you're not sure what
you're gonna get. Cardinals will be better, but I just
don't really want to take the Niners at minus one
ninety two as far as MVP goes, No, No, I don't
really like the board all that much. You got obviously
Mahomes Alan CJ. Stroud. I mean you can maybe throw
(17:08):
a couple of bucks on Jordan Love at plus fourteen
fifty or Jalen Hurts at plus fourteen fifty. Those are
kind of the two that I would see being decent bets.
But I just don't. I'm just not super high on
really seeing any value on MVP, all right, And then
I just I'm not going to go down the list
here on sports bet. I'm just going to go down
the list that I have on my phone as far
(17:29):
as bets that I kind of liked and that I
have placed every single bet. That everything I go over
with with you guys are bets that I have personally made.
I don't I don't suggest anything that I'm not playing personally.
So I'm riding with you when I give these out. Okay,
I'm not a pro better. I never claim to be
a pro better, but I have one in the NFL
(17:52):
almost every single year that I've been doing this, especially
in the last four or five years when we've been
tracking every single bet. I started with two hundred I
like starting with cash, so I had I put in said,
I said aside two hundred dollars last year, keep it
in my drawer, and I use that week one and
try and build it up. And I ended up with
like thirteen hundred bucks at the end of the year. Which, listen,
(18:16):
I don't bet a lot. I'm a sports journalist. So
the bank account isn't all that high. I'm also kind
of a flat better, which means I usually bet between
ten and twenty dollars every single bet, and I don't
make like huge bets and I don't make little bets.
I kind of stay the same. I'm minute for the
long term, and I try and write it out. We'll
go through some of those tips and tricks a little
(18:36):
bit more in a different episode, but that's just kind
of my style. But being able to go from two
hundred bucks at thirteen, it's been that's I was very
proud of that, and that's it's hard to do. It
was a grind. Obviously, there was weeks where we did
not win, but overall we did win, and I will
have a bunch of rain Maker parlays and boosts throughout
the year. Last year we were plus twenty seven thousand
(18:56):
dollars to the public with those three t parlays that
are boosted on sports bet Montana. I'll have more details
about that. We're gonna probably have tu Per Week this
NFL season, so that'll be a lot of fun. Okay,
Offensive Player of the Year I wrote down two. I'm
kind of I'm just I'm high on Breeze Hall this year.
(19:18):
I think with having Aaron Rodgers in an actual passing
attack and a little bit better offensive line, I think
he could have a good season. So I have him
at plus fourteen fifty and I have Devon a Chan
at plus fifty four hundred. Look a Chan, He's got
the explosiveness. He could just go bananas. And at fifty
four to one, why not throw five bucks on it.
Coach of the Year, I got Mike McDonald with Seattle
(19:42):
plus fourteen to fifty. I like the change here. I
think defensively he's gonna be able to fix a lot
of what Seattle struggled with. And I like the new
offensive coordinator coming over from Washington. I think it fits
their style. I think it fits with their good at
that you have three good receivers. I think if they
(20:04):
go up tempo and or passing the ball more, I
think that could help them offensively. And I like that
first year coach. I also Dan Campbell at twenty two hundred.
I just think I think the Lions will have the
best record in the NFC this year, and so Dan
Campbell being the mix and at plus twenty two hundred,
let me take that offensive Rookie of the Year. Now,
(20:25):
with these markets, a lot of it is like how
am I divving up the money? Right? So let's say
I have one hundred bucks. Okay, I'm probably gonna put
half of it on Caleb Williams at plus one twenty five.
I know it's like even money, but I just think
that he has all the tools, and he's got the
(20:46):
wide receivers and the play to be really really good.
He's the quarterback, So a wide receiver is gonna have
to play out of their freaking minds to beat a
quarterback in Rookie of the Year. So I'm gonna go
with Cab Williams. The other couple that I like, I
think Marvin Harrison's gonna have a big year, But at
plus six twenty five, I just I think the numbers
(21:08):
should be a little bit bigger. I think Elite Neighbors
is an absolute stud. So I took a little bit
of him at plus twelve hundred, and this is gonna
be a Homer pick. But Lad mcconkeye at plus thirty
six hundred, I mean he's gonna be the number one
option for Justin Herbert, and so I could see him
easily being like that slock guy, and he could catch
(21:29):
a hundred balls and for twelve hundred and thirteen hundred yards.
So at thirty six one hundred thirty six to one,
I just put a couple couple bets there, Okay, to
make the playoffs, yes and nos. I have the Bears no.
At minus one eleven. This is more a I really
like the Lions and the Packers. And when you're looking
at the NFC six seven teams, you're looking Eagles, Cowboys,
(21:56):
potentially Niners, Bears, Packers, one from the South. I just
don't know if there's enough. I think the Seahawks of
the Rams, one of those two will be in the
mix and probably be better than the Bears. So if
I'm getting even money, I don't think I think the
Bears will be much improved. I think they're two years away.
So I had Bears no, and I have Browns and
(22:18):
Seahawks Yes at plus one forty five and plus one eighty.
Look the Browns, I don't everyone's kind of moving off
of them, and I just they had you know, this
is all about Deshaun Watson, but they had some bad
quarterback play before they went to Flacco last year. So
if I'm getting plus one forty five for them to
make the playoffs, I kind of like that. In Seattle
(22:39):
at plus one eighty, I think they could sneak in
there and get into the playoffs. Team total, I have
the Lions over ten and a half wins. I love
this bet. And I have the Lions plus eight hundred
to have the most wins in the NFL. Just high
the lines. I think they're gonna be really fun. All
right now. It's a bunch of props and random ones,
(23:01):
so I'm just gonna fly through these. I also got
to get out of here. Caleb Williams most rookie passing
yards minus won twenty five. I just I like it.
I think some of these other rookies could have good years,
but they're not gonna be passing the ball as much
as him. I really like this one longest field goal
over sixty two and a half yards. We've they've they've
already beat this in the preseason minus one of five.
(23:23):
I love it. B Jon Robinson over six and a
half touchdowns. I like that a lot. The offense is
gonna be better, he's gonna get more chances, and you
don't have a running quarterback in Desmond Ritter that stole
a few rushing touchdowns away from him last year. Jalen
Wattle over nine ninety nine and a half receiving yards.
He went over this last year, missed a lot of games.
(23:44):
He had a monster year two years ago. I just
think he's really good. I think he I like getting
these depressed numbers with guys that were banged up last year.
He's gonna go for over a thousand. I like Dalton
kincaid receptions and receiving yards. His receptions was seventy six
and a half in like seven hundred and something yards.
I like both of those. The last winless team, the
(24:06):
Patriots plus six hundred. Their schedule is brutal, and if
they don't beat the Seahawks at home in Week two,
which I think Seattle's much better, I really like that
at plus six hundred, most interceptions I took Will Levis
plus twelve fifty. I think he's gonna have the reins.
He's gonna be able to he's gonna play all season.
They're gonna be throwing the ball around a little bit,
and he's proven to like want to throw the ball
(24:28):
downfield to be a gunslinger. So give me Will Levis
most interceptions, most receiving yards. It's all the usual sub
suspects up top. So Marvin Harrison Junior at plus twenty
five hundred worth a couple bucks in my opinion. Most
rushing yards, I have Breece Hall plus eight hundred and
eighth Han at plus two thousand this one. I was
(24:49):
very confused by Daniel Jones over eight and a half interceptions.
I mean he might get that in the first month
of the season. I mean he's gonna play even if
he's bad. They're not. I don't think they're gonna go
to Devido right away. I don't understand why that number
is so low. C J. Stroud over forty one four
one hundred and fifty passing yards. He did this last
(25:12):
year and missed a handful of games. Gino Smith over
thirty four fifty passing yards, Nico Collins over one thousand
and fifty receiving yards, and Isaiah Pacheco over six and
a half touchdowns. I think he is gonna feast this
year and score a lot and be very very good.
(25:33):
So those are all the plays that I like. Oh. CJ.
Shoud over five thousand passing yards. Plus seven to fifty.
That one's kind of fun. I just think Ceedars Shroud's
in for a big year. Okay, I know I ran
through those really really fast. If you have any questions,
reach out to me on social media. We'll be doing
another one of these, probably each week leading up because
now we're in college football, so we'll touch on maybe
(25:55):
some more NFL stuff, go over some strategies and tips
and things like that before the NFL season while we
have college football for a couple weeks before we get going.
But have a great weekend, everybody, go Kats and Grizz.
I think it's gonna be a really fun year for
all the Treasure State fans out there. And listen, tell
people about the podcast. I don't really push the subscribing
and all that kind of crap. I'm like, if you
(26:16):
like it, you'll listen to it. If not, then you don't,
you know whatever. But I'm kind of the only person
in the state of Montana that's doing this, so all
the support is appreciated. See you guys,
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