May 21, 2023 • 41 mins
It's a dead reckoning when two rivals navigate mermaids, spider-verses, and transformers to predict the biggest box office hits of the summer movie season and meet their dial of destiny.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:02):
In a world where movies rely onmarketing more than ever to connect with audiences,
one podcast aims to make sense ofit all. This is movies and
marketing. Next Saturday Night where sendingyou back to the future. Go ahead,
make my day, have out goYou're crazy, Dutch bastard. What
(00:27):
we've got here is failure. You'llcommunicate tack on around time the press home
about where we might as well withtime. I am an FDA I agent.
All right, Dead Reckoning when tworivals navigate Mermaids, Spider Verses,
(00:49):
and Transformers to predict the biggest boxoffice hits of the summer movie season and
meet their dial of destiny. Destinyall that addicts crammed it all all in.
I love that it is a DeadReckoning. Dead Reckoning Part one.
Part two will be the follow up. I like that the twenty twenty three
(01:11):
summer movie draft. It's here theday I've waited for all year. Every
day I wake up and I likecarve, you know, I like scratch
a mark into the wall one daycloser into your cave wall. Yeah.
I like that. I like havea really long beard, like after the
end of last year. You know, my demise every day Now, I
(01:33):
just wake up. I'm counting thedays till I get my revenge. I
don't know why. This is whatI pictured when you said that, I
was picturing Tom Hanks in Castaway witha giant spear spearing fish. Yeah,
that's exactly what it's been like.So I'm happy to get away from that,
happy to get off that island,only to be defeated and return to
that island potentially. This is whatI think about the draft. Doesn't matter
(01:57):
how many times you win or lose. When it comes around, it fills
you with hope, hope for thefuture. It's kind of like playing the
lottery, you know. Yeah,that's exactly what it is. It's just
a fun event. At the timeyou do it, anything is possible.
Yeah, and then you know,as the summer goes on, the misery
(02:19):
creeps in. But for this oneday, you know, it just all
feels so good. So, incase you haven't grasped it quite yet,
on today's episode, we're talking aboutsummer movies. Why are we talking about
summer movies? Patrick, Why arewe doing it? Well, we started
this way back in twenty sixteen,which seems like ages ago. Yeah,
(02:40):
for you, our listeners, thismight be your first summer movie draft you're
experiencing. And let me just tellyou, this is a competition that Shad
and I have had. It reallydidn't start off as a competition. It
was more of just a fun,happy go lucky couple of guys talking about
what movies I thought would do wellduring the summer. And now let's turn
(03:01):
into a battle Royalo sorts. Yeah, I will kill you, I will
claw over you, I will doanything to win. Well, you said
it, it's a dead wreckoning.Yeah, you know exactly what it is.
Part one, Part one. Intwenty nineteen, we moved to a
draft format. You know, whenwe started off, we were just picking
(03:23):
which ones we thought would perform well, and we both could have the same
movies on our list, which wasfun, but it wasn't super challenging because
if we both had the same moviessometimes we were really pretty close. It's
more of a competition in the draftstyle. Yeah, so rather than just
trying to pick the top five moviesstraight up, we have a draft format
(03:44):
where we pick seven movies each andneither one of us can pick the same
movie. So where we at currently, Shad with the standings. Currently it's
becoming balanced. You know, therewas a while where it was it was
pretty balanced. Not so much anymore. Currently series is at two to four.
You've got the four, I've gotthe two, and I haven't won
(04:06):
in a while. Twenty sixteen andtwenty eighteen, I got it. You
took it in twenty seventeen, twentynineteen, twenty one, and twenty two,
so you're on a hot streak now. I will say, you know,
there was no challenge in twenty twentysummer movie season was canceled by COVID.
There wasn't enough we could really havea draft. You didn't even know
if movies were coming out when theywere coming out. Yea. And even
(04:29):
since then, a whole lot ofpeople are even questioning twenty twenty one,
twenty twenty two, do those draftseven count. I know a lot of
experts have weighed in and said theyprobably shouldn't. You should probably take those
numbers away. A lot of likeprominent professors in the field have said those
don't even really count. So inmany ways, it's still two two if
(04:54):
you want to look at it thatway. I would love the names of
these prominent professors. They don't wantto get in the mix. They don't
want to start a fight. Youknow, it's academic in a lot of
ways, so they're just going tokind of stay anonymous. But there's a
lot of them. It's all youneed to know. Well, I know
our listeners can't see us while you'relistening to the podcast, but whenever you
(05:16):
talk about the standings, you can'tsee my face. But there's a giant
grin on it, mainly because weboth know. I mean, anyone can
have, you know, a runof luck. It happens. The Giants
beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They weren't the best team, but
it happens. Yeah, I justchalk it up as sheer luck on my
(05:38):
side. Because I'm not a movieexpert. You'll see that in my picks.
I mean, I made some giganticmistakes. I do pride myself in
learning from my mistakes. For example, I brought this up in the past.
There was a whole ear where Ididn't pick kids movies, which bit
me. Bit me pretty hard thatyear. And obviously I've learned a lot
(05:58):
because I'm now King of the castle, and I never learned from my mistakes.
So that's why. I just liketo repeat them over and over year
in and year out and just choosenice, juicy bombs. I enjoy a
good bomb, so I'll see whichones I could pick this year. Let's
go through Before we get into theactual draft, let's go over the rules
of the game, because we havesome, you know, pretty unique rules
(06:21):
that you might be like, well, why aren't they picking this movie?
So let's get into the rules.Patrick, what is the number one rule
of the draft? The timeline.So the timeline is critical. A lot
of people ask us, or haveasked us in the past, what movies
are eligible. So any movie releasedin the US theaters from Memorial Day weekend
through Labor Day weekend is eligible.Every year it's slightly different dates, but
(06:45):
this year it's May twenty six throughSeptember fourth, and only theatrical releases.
So we have had, in thecase of past picks, things that have
moved. COVID did this to us, moved from theatrical releases to streaming releases,
and we've taken that into account andpass picks. But yeah, hopefully
that doesn't happen to anybody. Hopefullywe don't have to deal with that.
(07:08):
Hopefully we're past that notable though withthat timeline Guardians of the Galaxy three,
you're not going to see that moviethat's already out as we're recording that.
It's not summer people, it's thebeginning of May. It's not summer.
Yeah. Fast X also comes outin May, so you're not going to
see that movie. You're not goingto hear about that one Ineligible, which
(07:29):
cuts a lot of those big onesthat that's the rules we play by,
right, it's the game. Soas you mentioned Patrick, seven movies each
on each team. We'll go backand forth with our picks. But little
wrinkle this year last year's winner,which is you gets to make a choice
at the beginning. You get tochoose between taking the first pick in the
(07:50):
draft or getting consecutive picks two andthree. So you can go one and
then your next pick will be four, or you can pick two and three
in a row. So kind ofa strategic choice you need to make right
at the beginning of the draft.From there, after those beginning picks,
things will normalize. We'll just kindof go back and forth. Then we
(08:11):
also have two bonuses, some bonusrewards we're going to be giving out here
some kind of strategic plays we canmake within the draft Potentially, you know,
they could also just be luck.We'll see how they kind of play
out. One we're calling the minimizermaximizer, and this is a reward for
(08:31):
the lowest grossing movie on either ofour lists. So one person's going to
get this bonus. So how doesthis come into play strategically, Well,
it's a chance to pick, youknow, one of those kind of lower
tier movies, not essentially a blockbusterif you want to, or it could
also just end up being a bomb, the bomb of the list. You're
(08:52):
going to get a bonus for that. Somebody is the person who has the
lowest grossing movie is going to getten times with the movie grosses. So
it could be interesting how that oneplays out. The next reward we have,
we call the overachiever optimizer, abonus for the movie that relative to
where it is drafted. So withinthe draft order, we have fourteen draft
(09:16):
picks between the two of us.Where it finishes in the results is going
to get a bonus for the onethat moves up. You know, if
it's drafted number fourteen and it endsup finishing number eight, that could be
the movie that had the biggest jumpbetween its draft position and its finishing position.
So that movie is also going toget a bonus, and it's going
(09:37):
to get fifteen million dollars for eachspace it moves up. So two bonuses
out there, which could mean extramoney in the bank for one of us.
Those are exciting, and you know, you say, wrinkle. I
think these are ways we every yeartry to keep it kind of exciting,
you know, And it's one ofthe reasons why we moved to draft format.
And each year we've introduced something thatmakes it kind of interesting for us.
(10:00):
And this year, you know,we really wanted to start to build
a better opportunity for the people whohave not done so well in the past,
and so of those people, Ithink this does that, you know,
I think this does that. Ithink it just opens it up to
being like a little bit more unpredictable. We love unpredictable, you know what
I mean, because, like yousaid, when you're going through the summer
(10:22):
and you're watching your pick perform,your picks perform in the theaters, there
comes a point where you know there'sno return. And I think this helps
you still have hope even in thelater months, you know, when you
know what kind of what's happening,because the overachiever optimizer might push you over
the threshold and maybe even win it. Yeah. I like that. You
(10:43):
want these kind of wild cards thatkeep the game going. You want to
keep things interesting, and hopefully thesethings do it. Like I said,
interesting, unpredictable. You're not sureexactly what's going to happen here. Who
knows how things will turn out.And of course our final rule, smack
talk. Getting in your opponent's headalways encouraged, always seeing if you could
(11:05):
worm in there and try to tryto make them second guess something or you
know, throw them off a littlebit. In the draft, we always
enjoy that a little bit. Yeah, what game is not complete without a
little smack talk? Yeah, toywith your opponent, smash them around like
the Hulk in Avengers, you knowwhere he kind of grass Loki and throws
(11:26):
them back and forth. Yeah,now it's time to dive in. And
with that you have a big choiceto make, which I'm sure you've been
contemplating night and day for a longtime. Yeah. Being the winner so
many times and giving myself the abilityto pick first, right, Yeah,
(11:48):
I mean, it's just it's justnot fair. You know. There's a
little tiny voice in my head thatsays, if you didn't have the first
pick, if you didn't have thisfirst round draft pick, could you still
defeat Chad and would that give youeven better bragging rights? Let's say,
Yeah, it sounds like cockiness,like could I do this with my with
an arm tied behind my back?Yes, because it's not even up a
part of strategy. It's just moreof like could I So I think with
(12:13):
that, I'm gonna say, I'mgonna give you the first round draft pick,
and I'm gonna take number two andnumber three? All right? Did
you explain that? Honestly, Ihad no idea what you're gonna do here.
I thought you might have passed iton. And I think if I
were in your position, given thatthis year, I don't think there is
a clear cut number one, Iprobably would have passed it on. But
(12:33):
I'll take it. I'll grab it. I know what I want. I'll
just say this, Donna pressing thingsthings I can't explain. And I've come
to believe it's not so much whatyou believe, it's so hard you believe
(12:58):
it. Give me the Dial ofDestiny. I'm gonna take it. I'm
gonna take old old Indiana Jones inthe number one slot. I think it'll
get the old crowd. I thinkit'll get the young crowd. I think
it can play to all audiences.And I hope, I hope it's better
(13:18):
than The Crystal Skull. Kingdom ofthe Crystal Skull in two thousand and eight
did three hundred and seventeen million.And this is what's so fascinating me.
Raiders of the Lost Arc in nineteeneighty one did two hundred and forty eight
million dollars domestic. Yeah, that'sinsane. That is insane, especially you
like in just that for inflation.That movie has the potential, I hope.
(13:41):
So I'm gonna take Indiana Jones anda Dial of Destiny with the number
one pick. That's not what Ithought you were going to go with.
No, No, I didn't,but I think it's a good pick.
That movie has the potential. It'sdefinitely a good pick. Well, that
leaves you open. So my numberone's going to be The Little Mermaid Live
(14:03):
Action. You broke the rules.You went to the aboff world. A
man was drowning. I had tosave him. This obsession with humans,
yster's stop. I just want toknow more about them. Go on a
little marm and I'll tell you why. The Lion King from twenty nineteen maybe
five hundred and forty three million domestic. I believe I wanted for you that
(14:24):
year. That was the year Ipicked Toy Story four. You had the
Lion King. It was kind oflike those are the big family movies,
and Lion King had like one hundredmillion more. They both made a buttload
of money, and Lion King madea lot more. Yeah, I mean,
I know people want to see it. People are going crazy over this
(14:45):
movie for some reason. So we'llsee. We'll see what happens. Maybe
it'll be my maverick of the year. It has the best release date,
which is Memorial Day weekend. Peopletend to get excited for that first movie
of the summer. I think theyhave a good track record with the these
live action versions. In general,I think these movies did pretty well and
people are into them. So you'reup on your number three. Now,
(15:07):
this is where I'm gonna get anadvantage, Chad. Okay, I believe
this is my advantage opportunity right here. Yeah, I think it is.
My number two pick is Spider ManAcross the Spider Verse. Oh, okay,
(15:28):
we are supposed to be the goodguys we are? Was that on
your list? It's on my list. It was not what I was expecting
you to pick. Here, okay, and I'll tell you why. I
think this movie is going to dogreat. The last movie into the Spider
Verse in twenty eighteen did one hundredand ninety million. People loved that movie.
(15:50):
It was a surprise hit across theSpider Verse. You have the fan
base people loved the first one,and I think they're going to come out
to see the second one. Ithink there's going to be a lot of
that fandom coming out to see it. Yeah, this was a big one.
I really liked the first Spider Versea lot. I think a lot
of people caught up with this onNetflix too. A lot of people think
it's the best Spider Man movie.I don't know if it's my favorite of
(16:12):
the Spider Man movies, but Ilike it a lot. I'm like really
looking forward to seeing the second one. I think my kids are too.
It's a good pick. I didn'thave it quite that high. I don't
know how much bigger it's going togo beyond. Like with the first one,
which was kind of a surprise hit, I had a couple movies above
it, but it was one Iwanted to have on my list. It's
(16:33):
gonna make some money already. Mymovies aren't shaking out to be very different
than I have picked in the past. Because I have The Little Mermaid and
another animated movie right whereas you havethe more action Indiana Jones. Makes me
a little sad I don't have IndianaJones on my list, but you know,
yeah, yeah, it's always ahole between what you want and what
you know. I always look atmy list at the end, and there's
(16:56):
been some years where I'm like,I don't necessarily like all these movies you
to me, but trying to useyour brain versus your heart. The number
four pick, this is what Ithought you were gonna pick here. I
have some questions about it. Willit be good? But I feel like
something's happening. I feel like peopleare kind of into it. It's got
a June release date and that movieit's The Flash. Tell me something.
(17:22):
You can't go anywhere, another timeline, another universe, So what do you
want? To stay. I'd fightto save this one because this is the
little where my mom lives. I'mnot going to lose her again. Los
(17:45):
help here you are. Yeah,I'm bad man. I'm going with the
Flash. So surprising that you're pickingthat. I almost can't even believe it.
(18:06):
I can't even believe it either.It's kind of a wild card.
Is it going to be good forthe older audience? There's the Keaton Batman.
It has this kind of star whoseems like a little bit of a
train wreck, which gives me questionBut like surprised to hear the number of
people who are like kind of interestedin this movie. I'm super surprised,
mainly because you have a hard timepicking the superhero movies. Let me tell
(18:27):
you something that you may not knowand might surprise you. Shad Flash was
not even on my list. Really, not at all, not at all.
You think it's gonna bomb. Ihave loved the trailers. I want
to see this movie. I thinkMichael Keaton and it is going to be
amazing. I can't wait to seethat. But there is a part of
(18:47):
me this year is that I thinkpeople are a little burned out on superhero
movies. It's like Transformers, andthey keep doing worse and worse and worse
at the box office. That's whythe first one did three hundred twenty million
dollars and by the last one numbersix one hundred and twenty seven million.
And so I don't know. Imean, I think it's gonna do really
well. I'm not I'm not denyingthat you're gonna have a lot of the
nostalgia people too, like us goingto see it for Keaton, you know,
(19:11):
even if they don't know who theflash is. I'm shocked you here.
It wasn't even on your radar.Makes me say, wish I would
have picked it later. I didn'teven know you weren't even thinking about it.
I think superhero fatigue is a realthing. I don't think it's gonna
stop this movie from making hundreds ofmillions of dollars. Though. Yeah,
no, I agree. And Ijust wanted to throw that out there because
I knew that you'd be like Icould, I'll take it. I'll take
(19:33):
it with my seventh pick, Andthat would have been there's a bonus for
you, all right. I haveto know what you're picking here. Do
you go ahead? You know,I think I know, but I thought
I've known every time, So goahead, throw it out there. Let
me see if I actually I don'tthink you know what I'm gonna pick.
Maybe I don't. I have noidea what you're doing. Man, you're
a wild card. You're a wildcard this year I'm gonna do. I'm
(19:55):
gonna do Mission Impossible, Dead ReckoningPart one. You're fighting to save a
night deal that doesn't exist. Neverdid I need to pick a sign?
That's exactly what I thought you weregoing to pick. The first movie in
ninety six did one hundred and eightymillion, fall Out in twenty eighteen did
two hundred and twenty million, andjust consistently, I think, especially as
(20:19):
of the later ones, they've beendoing about two hundred million. You got
Tom Cruise. You just came offMaverick, and people love to watch Tom
Cruise do his own stunts, soI think it's going to do really well.
What do you think? I thinkthat's the logical next choice. I
wish you wouldn't have taken it soI could have grabbed it. A lot
of people even think it's gonna getthe Maverick like bump and do better.
(20:41):
I don't know, if I buythat the last movie was like the highest
grossing Mission Impossible movie in the USso far, and I think that made
a little over two hundred million,possibility could go even a little bit higher.
I think that's a good pick.That is the pick that to me,
the movies that have gone so farare the logical top five, and
(21:03):
I think after that there's almost likea clear step down and things get a
little more unclear to me. Well, here's the thing about this. You
know, we talk about this lotour strategies as we're playing the game.
You pick something, I picked something, You pick something, I pick something.
Sometimes you do on the fly adjustmentsto your draft. You have to
What's interesting is you knowing what Iwas going to pick made me realize,
(21:29):
I know what you think I evengonna pick next. So I knew you
thought I was going to pick MissionImpossible, in which case that was probably
going to be your next pick.Right. So the strategy of that is
that wasn't really my next pick,but it's on my list, and if
I'm going to grab it, Ihave to grab it now, right because
if I don't, you're gonna pickit next. That's the strategy of the
draft. I even would have thought, I'm like a cruise. I thought
(21:52):
coming off of Maverick, I eventhought you might have picked that one higher.
Now Here is where I feel likethose five movies were to me the
clear top five. After that,things in my book become more unpredictable.
So it's all kind of taken shotshere. I'm gonna go with somebody I
think is fairly reliable for throwing somethingout there that stirs some interest, even
(22:15):
though I have a lot of questionson whether this one will actually do it
given the content. I'm gonna gowith Oppenheimer ran the Race against the Nazis,
and I know what it means ifthe Nazis of a bomb. Christopher
(22:37):
Nolan's movie. He puts things onImax screens, He creates spectacles, he
gets people out there. I thinkthere's some money to be made there that
I think it will be kind ofan attraction. Yeah, that's interesting.
So people come out for his movies. Tenant I was not a fan of.
So Tenant's another thing that gives me, like pause. Interstellar, Man,
(22:59):
I love that movie. It's likeone of my favorite movies sci fi
movies of all time. Really,Oh my God, I love that movie.
I probably need to watch it again. I only saw it once.
It's a movie. I'd like tosee it in a movie theater. Fortunately,
this episode is not about Interstellar,so let's move on. Yeah,
all right, you're up on yournumber four pick. Well, my next
movie for number four, I'm pickingBarbie. Since the beginning of time,
(23:26):
since the first little girl ever existed, there have been dolls, but the
dolls were always and forever baby dolls. U two. I think this movie
(23:48):
is going to do fantastic. Ithink this is going to be the breakout.
It may be. This is whyI say in this stage, everything
is like, I don't know.Interestingly that Knappenheimer come the same day.
We'll have to see what opening weekendfor each of those two. Yeah,
they're very different movies. I expectBarbie would open higher, And you're right,
it could be a surprise hit andit could be like the big difference
(24:10):
maker for you. Maybe we'll haveto see my next pick, Teenage Mutant
Ninja Turtles It. Let's try thatagain, but with Ninja stars. Hey,
why do we pick a fruit shapedexactly like my head? Just stop
talking. You're ruining my concentration.You're fine show He's gonna die. You
(24:40):
see the animation to it, verySpider Verse esque, and it's got Seth
Rogan behind it. The teenage mutantNinja Turtles coming back once again to make
some money. A little sad aboutthat one because that's my next pick.
That was, Oh that was onyour radar, Okay, I didn't wasn't
really on my radar till I waslike looking at this list. I was
like, Oh, they're doing thisagain. I think this might be your
(25:02):
breakout hit right here. I thinkthis is going to really help your list
a ton. In my opinion isthis will be like getting Spider Verse,
but at a lower rate. Youmight get that jump Which one is that
the Overachiever Optimizer? That's the jumpone, the Overachiever Optimizer. Yeah,
yeah, so I could see thatone doing really, really, really well,
(25:22):
let's hope. So when I wasasking my you know, nine year
old son about movies, he wasmost excited for. This was kind of
on the top of his list.It's got that recognition, you know,
people know it, So there's kindof a little bit of nostalgia to it.
M All right, this words getsa little bit weird gets even creakier.
Right, This is where it's moreeven kind of making choices. So
I am going to go with transformers, Rise of the Beasts. You've never
(25:49):
faced anything. Let them come,Rise of the Beasts. I think it's
necessary to pick it because I'm sureit's probably going to do money. But
here's the thing about transformers. Imentioned first one did three hundred and twenty
million, the last one one hundredand twenty seven million. They've just been
(26:10):
going down. Yeah, so ifthis does, if this stays on the
same trajectory, I'm only looking atsomewhere around one hundred million. Is that
good? Is that not good?I think there's some other ones that have
potential to maybe do better. Yeah. I kind of had to slot it
in in the same position. Iwould have done the same thing. I
think, even though begrudgingly, weshould be done with Transformers, or at
(26:33):
least let's take a decade long breakor something. At least get it out
of our system. But I thinkit's good for one hundred million. Here's
what I will say it has goingfor it. It's not a Michael Bay
Transformers, so maybe it'll be better. Yeah. You know, people be
like this the best one. Imean, I'll say the last couple they
were auditory nightmares, like a barrageof like what it was just over stimulation
(27:00):
almost right visually and audibly. Soit does have that benefits. It's a
different director, which hopefully will makean impact. I don't know. We'll
see. So what do you got? Now? What do you got on
your list? I'm gonna go withElemental, the Pixar movie, which looks
decent. Meet the residence of ElementsCity Air usually has their head in the
(27:22):
cloud. Oh my new jacket.Earth can be a little seedy. Nothing
we're going on here, just alittle pruning. Water is always getting into
something and fire as ordered. Werun a little hot hoping you know,
(27:51):
there's like one hundred, one hundredand fifty million something to be juiced out
of that movie, or it turnsout to be really good and get some
family buds going. I don't know, though. It's hard to trust picks
are anymore, which is crazy.This is the brand of Wally of inside
out of all these like you know, it was like I can't miss for
like fifteen years, and now itmight be dead in the water and we'll
(28:11):
find out what elemental for sure.If it is, I'll agree with you.
It's really really low on my likealternate lists. This is where we're
getting down to like one hundred millionor less. Maybe, or you're looking
for that gem in the rough kindof what could potentially break out of a
pack. Maybe. Yeah. Sowe always talk about horror movies in the
(28:33):
summer. I'm gonna go with onethat's maybe not on everyone's list, but
does look pretty good. I didwatch the trailer. I'm gonna go with
the Boogeyman. Well, when thereare scary things we don't understand, our
minds try to fill in the blanks. Sometimes the best thing to do is
(28:56):
to face it. Okay, it'sfrom the mind of Stephen King. As
they say, I think it's gonnabe pretty good. We saw that trailer
for that before Something in the movietheater and it got pretty good reaction.
I thought it looked pretty good.It was based on a Stephen King short
story from the producers of Stranger Things. There's always a few horror movies in
(29:17):
the summer that do it that click. You know, people are like into
that. That could be a goodone. One thing I'll tell you is,
you know, looking at the listthis year. There are some where
I was like, if I hadeight or nine picks, I might pick
that, yeah, which is notusually how it goes. There was nothing,
you know, you got to midJuly and it was the summer was
over all, right, So thatbeing the case, my number six,
(29:41):
I think I'm going to go with. I think I know what you're gonna
pick? Do you probably? Ijust feel torn here. I like,
this is what I have, likesomething. I want to pick something I
and then I'm looking at some ofthe these other movies where I'm like,
hmmm, what will actually make money? So let's see what makes sense here.
(30:07):
I know I've got to get toit. Get to it. Take
your time, take your time.This is your opportunity, chat, This
is your opportunity to come back,show the world, show the listeners that
you have what it takes. Stayin this game. Yeah yeah, get
down with it. I can seeyou strategizing right now, and I'm thinking
to myself, talk a little intohis brain. God is a bullet.
(30:33):
God is a Bullet's looking pretty good? What do you think of asteroid City?
I want to see asteroid City.Yeah, I feel like Asteroid City.
I have trouble with. I'm like, it's probably not going to be
low enough to be the minimizer one, but also not going to be big
enough to be you know, valuable. That's kind of where I land on
(30:53):
it. But I want to seeit's a Wes Anderson movie, which I
typically like, Yeah, I thinkit'll be entertaining. His movies are art,
you know, every scene's like apicture. I'm gonna just go with
my gut. I'm gonna pick withwhat I want to pick and hope that
it breaks out. And that isI'm gonna go with the Jennifer Lawrence raunchy
comedy, no hard feelings. He'sjust been so worried about our son.
(31:17):
He's going to Princeton in the fall. I've heard of it. You know.
We tried everything to bring him outof his shell. He doesn't come
out of his room and he doesn'ttalk to girls drinks. So when you
say date him, do you meandate him or date him? Yes,
datum, datum hard, I'll dathis brains out. I think we could
be looking for something like that thissummer rather than pick one of these stupid
(31:40):
middle of the road, you know, more big studio movies that might flop,
audiences might be looking for like acomedy, kind of like a rom
com like this could end up just, you know, kind of fizzling.
But I'd rather take a shot onsomething like that. All Right. I
feel like it's a long shot andI like it. All right. Last
(32:00):
two, I am gonna go withsomething that I want to pick as well
as something that I think might surpriseus. It might surprise us. I'm
gonna go with the equalizer. Threenine seconds. That's what I'll give you
to decide your fate. Okay,I think Denzel Washington. You know,
(32:24):
the first couple did a round onehundred million. It's going to be in
that lower tier. But I thinkpeople want to see Denzel Washington. It's
going to bump out a trilogy ofthat series, which I think is really
important. The first two were reallygood. Have you ever watched the first
two of those? No, I'venever actually watched this. The first one
spectacular, second one was pretty good. And I will say, you know,
(32:45):
I know he's typecast a lot oftimes for whatever reason. He was
just great. He was a greatequalizer and maybe he will equalize my list.
Yeah, I think that's a goodpick and those movies have done solidly.
You know, it comes out thelast weekend of the summer, that's
Labor Day weekend, so we'll haveto see how that performs over time.
(33:07):
But it's kind of a clear runwayfor a little bit too. You know,
there's like nothing else at that time, so he's got a little bit
of space and people loved Denzel,So I think that's good for like at
least seventy five million. I thinkthat's a good pickup at the end.
Potential optimizer pick down there when youget it at the last pick Yeah,
(33:27):
since it is that last weekend,what is the rule? Do I have
the run while it's in the theaters? Right? I think what we did
previously because shang Chi, you know, in that year, opened that weekend.
I think we kept it open untillike the end of September. Okay,
I couldn't remember if we could justkept it while it was in the
US theaters because if it's like fouror five weeks, I figured, you
(33:49):
know, if it's still if it'sstill going, we'll keep it going.
I think, yeah, the generalrule was like keep it going to the
end of September because we hate tohave the show like too far out for
the summer. But all right,what's number seven? Dude? What do
you see? This is now wherestrategy comes into play, because I can
look at your list, I cansee what I think is going to be
the lowest one, which is probablywhen I look at it, maybe the
(34:10):
Boogeyman in terms of return, andI can go for the minimizer then,
but I also want to maximize thatminimum. Now, maybe we are talking
Asteroid City or something like that,or Strays, you know, one of
those movies which I want to makesure it doesn't make too much. You
know, I can bring something likethat in and try to if I can
(34:34):
get like a thirty million, getthat kind of bonus in there. That's
where strategy comes in. But again, you know, being careful to kind
of walk that line. Those arethe two movies I'm bouncing around, Asteroid
City or Strays. Which one doI think will make the most without going
over It's like prices, right,rules one dollar. So let's go with
(34:58):
in this last slot, Let's takeStrays. Let's put it in there.
Today is going to be the bestday ever. I love sunshine, I
love butterflies, but more than anything, I love done Okay, shut them
up. Sure, that's done.The best owner in the world. We're
(35:23):
playing this game called Fetch Fetch.He drops me off really far away and
drive home without me. Let's seewhat it does. Is that what you
thought I was gonna pick? Yes, yeah, okay, And you didn't
know what you're gonna pick. AndI still knew what you were going to
pick. I know you know mymind better than me. It's just we've
talked about in the past. Ourlists are a reflection of us, you
(35:45):
know, I mean, whether ornot we pick stuff we don't want to
pick sometimes, which happens. Westill have those movies where they're a reflection
of what we want to see orwhat we are excited to see, you
know, regardless if it's a goodmovie or not. Yeah, I think
you just gave me the opening forit. Like the Equalizer. If you
were to pick something smaller than that, the Equalizer I think will make good
(36:07):
money. If you were to picksomething smaller than that, then I would
have either tried to pick something smallor try to go on something bigger.
You know. There were a fewof these movies. They didn't end up
going on here, but there arethree of them. In particular where I'm
like, they'll probably make decent money, but I don't want to pick them.
Haunted Mansion, Blue Beetle, TheMeg two. Yeah, well,
(36:28):
you know, all I know isyou hurt my feelings. No, not,
you hurt my feeling Shad. I'mtalking about I hope the comedy with
Julia Louise Dreyfuss that you didn't pickabout My Father, the comedy with Robert
de Niro. What about Grand Treismo. I loved that video game when I
was younger, and it's from thedirector of District nine. District nine.
(36:50):
Yeah, I'm surprised you didn't gowith something that I know is near and
dear to your heart and past picks, even though you don't know a lot
about it. The Blumhouse horror movieInsidious. No they listen. Oh yeah,
I was thinking about Insidious, RedDorks that that's like good for like
sixty seventy five something like that.You know, we've talked about this in
the past, Blumhouse. You know, they tend to put movies that are
(37:14):
just track reformers. Yeah, honestly, we could have gone ten and had
pretty interesting list this year, whichlast year, there's no way we could
have got ten. So what doyou think? What do you think of
your list? You're happy with whatyou got. Seems like you got a
lot of the things you wanted.I feel sad I didn't get any Ina
Jones because I think that's going todo really well. I have really no
idea about these last picks and thestrategy behind the bonuses. I'll be honest,
(37:37):
I don't know how that will playout. So that's all just going
to be sure luck, which you'llprobably. I think you're better at those
kinds of things than I am.So getting the last pick, I think
I have the chance to get theminimizer one. The other one that one,
I have no idea where that one'sgoing to go. So you think
that last pick is going to beyour minimizer maximizer, I think so.
(38:00):
I think Strays when I look atthese movies, I think Strays, I
mean no hard feelings, could alsonot do very well. So I think
Strays is kind of going to bethe movie when I look at that's going
to do the least the lowest number. I think my top four make me
a shoe in for the winner.Potentially. The only thing that's a real
unknown for me is how those aregoing to hit up against Indiana Jones,
(38:22):
Because I think Indiana Jones, likeyou said, it does have the potential
of doing so well that it knockslike two of my top two out of
the list, you know what Imean, like evens them out. Yeah,
that's big five. I just don'tknow. I know they're gonna do
well like Indiana Jones, The Flash, Little Mermaid, Spider Verse, Mission
Impossible. They're all gonna do good. I don't know how good they're gonna
(38:43):
do, you know what I mean. I don't know if one's really going
to blow up or one's gonna likedisappoint slightly. By disappoint, I mean
making like two hundred million versus youknow, the two hundred versus the four
hundred or like something makes five hundred. That's a big difference. So that
could change things, Barbie. Ifeel like it's a real wild card.
How that does could like really determinethings. If that ends up being like,
(39:05):
you know, a two hundred andfifty million dollar movie, that could
really push things into your favor.So I don't know. I like when
I look at both these lists,I like them, you know what I
mean. Last year. It looksso thin at the end now that I
look at this and I'm like,oh, these is a good collection of
movies here. Yeah, it'll beinteresting to see is the summer wears on.
We're not even at the beginning yet, So now we haven't even started
(39:28):
yet. What do you think?What's your number one movie? Which movie
on these of all these movies areyou most excited to see? Probably most
excited to see Spider Man across theSpider Verse. It just was such a
visually beautiful animation the first time around, So I don't know, I'm just
kind of excited to see that,and I know my kids are too.
(39:50):
Yeah, it was so unique,That's what I'll say about the first one.
It was so different from anything elsethat I hope this one lives up
to it. I hope it's asgood. And first one definitely had that
a prize factor. Probably I'm probablyin the Indiana Jones camp, you know,
that's probably, And I hope IndianaJones just can finish strong, you
know what I mean. Yeah,I hope it has the surprise factor.
Honestly, I hope it like whenyou go into it and you're like,
(40:13):
you leave that movie and go Ifeel really good. Because I've said this
before, Crystal Skull, I didn'thave that feeling. I felt like,
oh, I felt a little bitof heartache more than anything. But Crystal
Skull, you also went in expectinglike this is gonna be amazing. Now
I'm going in expecting like, oh, I don't know. That's what I'm
(40:34):
hoping, that it'll be that surprisehit even you know where like people are
excited about it. Yeah, TransformersRise at the Beast. Will you be
there like opening weekend or you justgonna like second day? I don't know.
I mean, I always have tosupport my list, right, but
gotta we'll see see what I couldtalk my kids into seeing. You know,
like you're going You're going to seeTransformers Rise of the Past. No,
(40:57):
Daddy, please please don't take methis. See that, Like I
just now was able to sleep withmy lights off. I can't wait till
we get started, and then disappointmentand misery sets in. All right,
Well, tune into our follow upepisode in September when we crunch the numbers
and see whose team takes this year'ssummer box office trophy. That's it for
(41:20):
this episode of Movies and marketing untilnext time, Let's bade the Black.
I'll be back. It's not comingback.
In a world where movies rely onmarketing more than ever to connect with audiences,
one podcast aims to make sense ofit all. This is movies and
marketing. Next Saturday Night where sendingyou back to the future. Go ahead,
make my day, have out goYou're crazy, Dutch bastard. What
(00:27):
we've got here is failure. You'llcommunicate tack on around time the press home
about where we might as well withtime. I am an FDA I agent.
All right, Dead Reckoning when tworivals navigate Mermaids, Spider Verses,
(00:49):
and Transformers to predict the biggest boxoffice hits of the summer movie season and
meet their dial of destiny. Destinyall that addicts crammed it all all in.
I love that it is a DeadReckoning. Dead Reckoning Part one.
Part two will be the follow up. I like that the twenty twenty three
(01:11):
summer movie draft. It's here theday I've waited for all year. Every
day I wake up and I likecarve, you know, I like scratch
a mark into the wall one daycloser into your cave wall. Yeah.
I like that. I like havea really long beard, like after the
end of last year. You know, my demise every day Now, I
(01:33):
just wake up. I'm counting thedays till I get my revenge. I
don't know why. This is whatI pictured when you said that, I
was picturing Tom Hanks in Castaway witha giant spear spearing fish. Yeah,
that's exactly what it's been like.So I'm happy to get away from that,
happy to get off that island,only to be defeated and return to
that island potentially. This is whatI think about the draft. Doesn't matter
(01:57):
how many times you win or lose. When it comes around, it fills
you with hope, hope for thefuture. It's kind of like playing the
lottery, you know. Yeah,that's exactly what it is. It's just
a fun event. At the timeyou do it, anything is possible.
Yeah, and then you know,as the summer goes on, the misery
(02:19):
creeps in. But for this oneday, you know, it just all
feels so good. So, incase you haven't grasped it quite yet,
on today's episode, we're talking aboutsummer movies. Why are we talking about
summer movies? Patrick, Why arewe doing it? Well, we started
this way back in twenty sixteen,which seems like ages ago. Yeah,
(02:40):
for you, our listeners, thismight be your first summer movie draft you're
experiencing. And let me just tellyou, this is a competition that Shad
and I have had. It reallydidn't start off as a competition. It
was more of just a fun,happy go lucky couple of guys talking about
what movies I thought would do wellduring the summer. And now let's turn
(03:01):
into a battle Royalo sorts. Yeah, I will kill you, I will
claw over you, I will doanything to win. Well, you said
it, it's a dead wreckoning.Yeah, you know exactly what it is.
Part one, Part one. Intwenty nineteen, we moved to a
draft format. You know, whenwe started off, we were just picking
(03:23):
which ones we thought would perform well, and we both could have the same
movies on our list, which wasfun, but it wasn't super challenging because
if we both had the same moviessometimes we were really pretty close. It's
more of a competition in the draftstyle. Yeah, so rather than just
trying to pick the top five moviesstraight up, we have a draft format
(03:44):
where we pick seven movies each andneither one of us can pick the same
movie. So where we at currently, Shad with the standings. Currently it's
becoming balanced. You know, therewas a while where it was it was
pretty balanced. Not so much anymore. Currently series is at two to four.
You've got the four, I've gotthe two, and I haven't won
(04:06):
in a while. Twenty sixteen andtwenty eighteen, I got it. You
took it in twenty seventeen, twentynineteen, twenty one, and twenty two,
so you're on a hot streak now. I will say, you know,
there was no challenge in twenty twentysummer movie season was canceled by COVID.
There wasn't enough we could really havea draft. You didn't even know
if movies were coming out when theywere coming out. Yea. And even
(04:29):
since then, a whole lot ofpeople are even questioning twenty twenty one,
twenty twenty two, do those draftseven count. I know a lot of
experts have weighed in and said theyprobably shouldn't. You should probably take those
numbers away. A lot of likeprominent professors in the field have said those
don't even really count. So inmany ways, it's still two two if
(04:54):
you want to look at it thatway. I would love the names of
these prominent professors. They don't wantto get in the mix. They don't
want to start a fight. Youknow, it's academic in a lot of
ways, so they're just going tokind of stay anonymous. But there's a
lot of them. It's all youneed to know. Well, I know
our listeners can't see us while you'relistening to the podcast, but whenever you
(05:16):
talk about the standings, you can'tsee my face. But there's a giant
grin on it, mainly because weboth know. I mean, anyone can
have, you know, a runof luck. It happens. The Giants
beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They weren't the best team, but
it happens. Yeah, I justchalk it up as sheer luck on my
(05:38):
side. Because I'm not a movieexpert. You'll see that in my picks.
I mean, I made some giganticmistakes. I do pride myself in
learning from my mistakes. For example, I brought this up in the past.
There was a whole ear where Ididn't pick kids movies, which bit
me. Bit me pretty hard thatyear. And obviously I've learned a lot
(05:58):
because I'm now King of the castle, and I never learned from my mistakes.
So that's why. I just liketo repeat them over and over year
in and year out and just choosenice, juicy bombs. I enjoy a
good bomb, so I'll see whichones I could pick this year. Let's
go through Before we get into theactual draft, let's go over the rules
of the game, because we havesome, you know, pretty unique rules
(06:21):
that you might be like, well, why aren't they picking this movie?
So let's get into the rules.Patrick, what is the number one rule
of the draft? The timeline.So the timeline is critical. A lot
of people ask us, or haveasked us in the past, what movies
are eligible. So any movie releasedin the US theaters from Memorial Day weekend
through Labor Day weekend is eligible.Every year it's slightly different dates, but
(06:45):
this year it's May twenty six throughSeptember fourth, and only theatrical releases.
So we have had, in thecase of past picks, things that have
moved. COVID did this to us, moved from theatrical releases to streaming releases,
and we've taken that into account andpass picks. But yeah, hopefully
that doesn't happen to anybody. Hopefullywe don't have to deal with that.
(07:08):
Hopefully we're past that notable though withthat timeline Guardians of the Galaxy three,
you're not going to see that moviethat's already out as we're recording that.
It's not summer people, it's thebeginning of May. It's not summer.
Yeah. Fast X also comes outin May, so you're not going to
see that movie. You're not goingto hear about that one Ineligible, which
(07:29):
cuts a lot of those big onesthat that's the rules we play by,
right, it's the game. Soas you mentioned Patrick, seven movies each
on each team. We'll go backand forth with our picks. But little
wrinkle this year last year's winner,which is you gets to make a choice
at the beginning. You get tochoose between taking the first pick in the
(07:50):
draft or getting consecutive picks two andthree. So you can go one and
then your next pick will be four, or you can pick two and three
in a row. So kind ofa strategic choice you need to make right
at the beginning of the draft.From there, after those beginning picks,
things will normalize. We'll just kindof go back and forth. Then we
(08:11):
also have two bonuses, some bonusrewards we're going to be giving out here
some kind of strategic plays we canmake within the draft Potentially, you know,
they could also just be luck.We'll see how they kind of play
out. One we're calling the minimizermaximizer, and this is a reward for
(08:31):
the lowest grossing movie on either ofour lists. So one person's going to
get this bonus. So how doesthis come into play strategically, Well,
it's a chance to pick, youknow, one of those kind of lower
tier movies, not essentially a blockbusterif you want to, or it could
also just end up being a bomb, the bomb of the list. You're
(08:52):
going to get a bonus for that. Somebody is the person who has the
lowest grossing movie is going to getten times with the movie grosses. So
it could be interesting how that oneplays out. The next reward we have,
we call the overachiever optimizer, abonus for the movie that relative to
where it is drafted. So withinthe draft order, we have fourteen draft
(09:16):
picks between the two of us.Where it finishes in the results is going
to get a bonus for the onethat moves up. You know, if
it's drafted number fourteen and it endsup finishing number eight, that could be
the movie that had the biggest jumpbetween its draft position and its finishing position.
So that movie is also going toget a bonus, and it's going
(09:37):
to get fifteen million dollars for eachspace it moves up. So two bonuses
out there, which could mean extramoney in the bank for one of us.
Those are exciting, and you know, you say, wrinkle. I
think these are ways we every yeartry to keep it kind of exciting,
you know, And it's one ofthe reasons why we moved to draft format.
And each year we've introduced something thatmakes it kind of interesting for us.
(10:00):
And this year, you know,we really wanted to start to build
a better opportunity for the people whohave not done so well in the past,
and so of those people, Ithink this does that, you know,
I think this does that. Ithink it just opens it up to
being like a little bit more unpredictable. We love unpredictable, you know what
I mean, because, like yousaid, when you're going through the summer
(10:22):
and you're watching your pick perform,your picks perform in the theaters, there
comes a point where you know there'sno return. And I think this helps
you still have hope even in thelater months, you know, when you
know what kind of what's happening,because the overachiever optimizer might push you over
the threshold and maybe even win it. Yeah. I like that. You
(10:43):
want these kind of wild cards thatkeep the game going. You want to
keep things interesting, and hopefully thesethings do it. Like I said,
interesting, unpredictable. You're not sureexactly what's going to happen here. Who
knows how things will turn out.And of course our final rule, smack
talk. Getting in your opponent's headalways encouraged, always seeing if you could
(11:05):
worm in there and try to tryto make them second guess something or you
know, throw them off a littlebit. In the draft, we always
enjoy that a little bit. Yeah, what game is not complete without a
little smack talk? Yeah, toywith your opponent, smash them around like
the Hulk in Avengers, you knowwhere he kind of grass Loki and throws
(11:26):
them back and forth. Yeah,now it's time to dive in. And
with that you have a big choiceto make, which I'm sure you've been
contemplating night and day for a longtime. Yeah. Being the winner so
many times and giving myself the abilityto pick first, right, Yeah,
(11:48):
I mean, it's just it's justnot fair. You know. There's a
little tiny voice in my head thatsays, if you didn't have the first
pick, if you didn't have thisfirst round draft pick, could you still
defeat Chad and would that give youeven better bragging rights? Let's say,
Yeah, it sounds like cockiness,like could I do this with my with
an arm tied behind my back?Yes, because it's not even up a
part of strategy. It's just moreof like could I So I think with
(12:13):
that, I'm gonna say, I'mgonna give you the first round draft pick,
and I'm gonna take number two andnumber three? All right? Did
you explain that? Honestly, Ihad no idea what you're gonna do here.
I thought you might have passed iton. And I think if I
were in your position, given thatthis year, I don't think there is
a clear cut number one, Iprobably would have passed it on. But
(12:33):
I'll take it. I'll grab it. I know what I want. I'll
just say this, Donna pressing thingsthings I can't explain. And I've come
to believe it's not so much whatyou believe, it's so hard you believe
(12:58):
it. Give me the Dial ofDestiny. I'm gonna take it. I'm
gonna take old old Indiana Jones inthe number one slot. I think it'll
get the old crowd. I thinkit'll get the young crowd. I think
it can play to all audiences.And I hope, I hope it's better
(13:18):
than The Crystal Skull. Kingdom ofthe Crystal Skull in two thousand and eight
did three hundred and seventeen million.And this is what's so fascinating me.
Raiders of the Lost Arc in nineteeneighty one did two hundred and forty eight
million dollars domestic. Yeah, that'sinsane. That is insane, especially you
like in just that for inflation.That movie has the potential, I hope.
(13:41):
So I'm gonna take Indiana Jones anda Dial of Destiny with the number
one pick. That's not what Ithought you were going to go with.
No, No, I didn't,but I think it's a good pick.
That movie has the potential. It'sdefinitely a good pick. Well, that
leaves you open. So my numberone's going to be The Little Mermaid Live
(14:03):
Action. You broke the rules.You went to the aboff world. A
man was drowning. I had tosave him. This obsession with humans,
yster's stop. I just want toknow more about them. Go on a
little marm and I'll tell you why. The Lion King from twenty nineteen maybe
five hundred and forty three million domestic. I believe I wanted for you that
(14:24):
year. That was the year Ipicked Toy Story four. You had the
Lion King. It was kind oflike those are the big family movies,
and Lion King had like one hundredmillion more. They both made a buttload
of money, and Lion King madea lot more. Yeah, I mean,
I know people want to see it. People are going crazy over this
(14:45):
movie for some reason. So we'llsee. We'll see what happens. Maybe
it'll be my maverick of the year. It has the best release date,
which is Memorial Day weekend. Peopletend to get excited for that first movie
of the summer. I think theyhave a good track record with the these
live action versions. In general,I think these movies did pretty well and
people are into them. So you'reup on your number three. Now,
(15:07):
this is where I'm gonna get anadvantage, Chad. Okay, I believe
this is my advantage opportunity right here. Yeah, I think it is.
My number two pick is Spider ManAcross the Spider Verse. Oh, okay,
(15:28):
we are supposed to be the goodguys we are? Was that on
your list? It's on my list. It was not what I was expecting
you to pick. Here, okay, and I'll tell you why. I
think this movie is going to dogreat. The last movie into the Spider
Verse in twenty eighteen did one hundredand ninety million. People loved that movie.
(15:50):
It was a surprise hit across theSpider Verse. You have the fan
base people loved the first one,and I think they're going to come out
to see the second one. Ithink there's going to be a lot of
that fandom coming out to see it. Yeah, this was a big one.
I really liked the first Spider Versea lot. I think a lot
of people caught up with this onNetflix too. A lot of people think
it's the best Spider Man movie.I don't know if it's my favorite of
(16:12):
the Spider Man movies, but Ilike it a lot. I'm like really
looking forward to seeing the second one. I think my kids are too.
It's a good pick. I didn'thave it quite that high. I don't
know how much bigger it's going togo beyond. Like with the first one,
which was kind of a surprise hit, I had a couple movies above
it, but it was one Iwanted to have on my list. It's
(16:33):
gonna make some money already. Mymovies aren't shaking out to be very different
than I have picked in the past. Because I have The Little Mermaid and
another animated movie right whereas you havethe more action Indiana Jones. Makes me
a little sad I don't have IndianaJones on my list, but you know,
yeah, yeah, it's always ahole between what you want and what
you know. I always look atmy list at the end, and there's
(16:56):
been some years where I'm like,I don't necessarily like all these movies you
to me, but trying to useyour brain versus your heart. The number
four pick, this is what Ithought you were gonna pick here. I
have some questions about it. Willit be good? But I feel like
something's happening. I feel like peopleare kind of into it. It's got
a June release date and that movieit's The Flash. Tell me something.
(17:22):
You can't go anywhere, another timeline, another universe, So what do you
want? To stay. I'd fightto save this one because this is the
little where my mom lives. I'mnot going to lose her again. Los
(17:45):
help here you are. Yeah,I'm bad man. I'm going with the
Flash. So surprising that you're pickingthat. I almost can't even believe it.
(18:06):
I can't even believe it either.It's kind of a wild card.
Is it going to be good forthe older audience? There's the Keaton Batman.
It has this kind of star whoseems like a little bit of a
train wreck, which gives me questionBut like surprised to hear the number of
people who are like kind of interestedin this movie. I'm super surprised,
mainly because you have a hard timepicking the superhero movies. Let me tell
(18:27):
you something that you may not knowand might surprise you. Shad Flash was
not even on my list. Really, not at all, not at all.
You think it's gonna bomb. Ihave loved the trailers. I want
to see this movie. I thinkMichael Keaton and it is going to be
amazing. I can't wait to seethat. But there is a part of
(18:47):
me this year is that I thinkpeople are a little burned out on superhero
movies. It's like Transformers, andthey keep doing worse and worse and worse
at the box office. That's whythe first one did three hundred twenty million
dollars and by the last one numbersix one hundred and twenty seven million.
And so I don't know. Imean, I think it's gonna do really
well. I'm not I'm not denyingthat you're gonna have a lot of the
nostalgia people too, like us goingto see it for Keaton, you know,
(19:11):
even if they don't know who theflash is. I'm shocked you here.
It wasn't even on your radar.Makes me say, wish I would
have picked it later. I didn'teven know you weren't even thinking about it.
I think superhero fatigue is a realthing. I don't think it's gonna
stop this movie from making hundreds ofmillions of dollars. Though. Yeah,
no, I agree. And Ijust wanted to throw that out there because
I knew that you'd be like Icould, I'll take it. I'll take
(19:33):
it with my seventh pick, Andthat would have been there's a bonus for
you, all right. I haveto know what you're picking here. Do
you go ahead? You know,I think I know, but I thought
I've known every time, So goahead, throw it out there. Let
me see if I actually I don'tthink you know what I'm gonna pick.
Maybe I don't. I have noidea what you're doing. Man, you're
a wild card. You're a wildcard this year I'm gonna do. I'm
(19:55):
gonna do Mission Impossible, Dead ReckoningPart one. You're fighting to save a
night deal that doesn't exist. Neverdid I need to pick a sign?
That's exactly what I thought you weregoing to pick. The first movie in
ninety six did one hundred and eightymillion, fall Out in twenty eighteen did
two hundred and twenty million, andjust consistently, I think, especially as
(20:19):
of the later ones, they've beendoing about two hundred million. You got
Tom Cruise. You just came offMaverick, and people love to watch Tom
Cruise do his own stunts, soI think it's going to do really well.
What do you think? I thinkthat's the logical next choice. I
wish you wouldn't have taken it soI could have grabbed it. A lot
of people even think it's gonna getthe Maverick like bump and do better.
(20:41):
I don't know, if I buythat the last movie was like the highest
grossing Mission Impossible movie in the USso far, and I think that made
a little over two hundred million,possibility could go even a little bit higher.
I think that's a good pick.That is the pick that to me,
the movies that have gone so farare the logical top five, and
(21:03):
I think after that there's almost likea clear step down and things get a
little more unclear to me. Well, here's the thing about this. You
know, we talk about this lotour strategies as we're playing the game.
You pick something, I picked something, You pick something, I pick something.
Sometimes you do on the fly adjustmentsto your draft. You have to
What's interesting is you knowing what Iwas going to pick made me realize,
(21:29):
I know what you think I evengonna pick next. So I knew you
thought I was going to pick MissionImpossible, in which case that was probably
going to be your next pick.Right. So the strategy of that is
that wasn't really my next pick,but it's on my list, and if
I'm going to grab it, Ihave to grab it now, right because
if I don't, you're gonna pickit next. That's the strategy of the
draft. I even would have thought, I'm like a cruise. I thought
(21:52):
coming off of Maverick, I eventhought you might have picked that one higher.
Now Here is where I feel likethose five movies were to me the
clear top five. After that,things in my book become more unpredictable.
So it's all kind of taken shotshere. I'm gonna go with somebody I
think is fairly reliable for throwing somethingout there that stirs some interest, even
(22:15):
though I have a lot of questionson whether this one will actually do it
given the content. I'm gonna gowith Oppenheimer ran the Race against the Nazis,
and I know what it means ifthe Nazis of a bomb. Christopher
(22:37):
Nolan's movie. He puts things onImax screens, He creates spectacles, he
gets people out there. I thinkthere's some money to be made there that
I think it will be kind ofan attraction. Yeah, that's interesting.
So people come out for his movies. Tenant I was not a fan of.
So Tenant's another thing that gives me, like pause. Interstellar, Man,
(22:59):
I love that movie. It's likeone of my favorite movies sci fi
movies of all time. Really,Oh my God, I love that movie.
I probably need to watch it again. I only saw it once.
It's a movie. I'd like tosee it in a movie theater. Fortunately,
this episode is not about Interstellar,so let's move on. Yeah,
all right, you're up on yournumber four pick. Well, my next
movie for number four, I'm pickingBarbie. Since the beginning of time,
(23:26):
since the first little girl ever existed, there have been dolls, but the
dolls were always and forever baby dolls. U two. I think this movie
(23:48):
is going to do fantastic. Ithink this is going to be the breakout.
It may be. This is whyI say in this stage, everything
is like, I don't know.Interestingly that Knappenheimer come the same day.
We'll have to see what opening weekendfor each of those two. Yeah,
they're very different movies. I expectBarbie would open higher, And you're right,
it could be a surprise hit andit could be like the big difference
(24:10):
maker for you. Maybe we'll haveto see my next pick, Teenage Mutant
Ninja Turtles It. Let's try thatagain, but with Ninja stars. Hey,
why do we pick a fruit shapedexactly like my head? Just stop
talking. You're ruining my concentration.You're fine show He's gonna die. You
(24:40):
see the animation to it, verySpider Verse esque, and it's got Seth
Rogan behind it. The teenage mutantNinja Turtles coming back once again to make
some money. A little sad aboutthat one because that's my next pick.
That was, Oh that was onyour radar, Okay, I didn't wasn't
really on my radar till I waslike looking at this list. I was
like, Oh, they're doing thisagain. I think this might be your
(25:02):
breakout hit right here. I thinkthis is going to really help your list
a ton. In my opinion isthis will be like getting Spider Verse,
but at a lower rate. Youmight get that jump Which one is that
the Overachiever Optimizer? That's the jumpone, the Overachiever Optimizer. Yeah,
yeah, so I could see thatone doing really, really, really well,
(25:22):
let's hope. So when I wasasking my you know, nine year
old son about movies, he wasmost excited for. This was kind of
on the top of his list.It's got that recognition, you know,
people know it, So there's kindof a little bit of nostalgia to it.
M All right, this words getsa little bit weird gets even creakier.
Right, This is where it's moreeven kind of making choices. So
I am going to go with transformers, Rise of the Beasts. You've never
(25:49):
faced anything. Let them come,Rise of the Beasts. I think it's
necessary to pick it because I'm sureit's probably going to do money. But
here's the thing about transformers. Imentioned first one did three hundred and twenty
million, the last one one hundredand twenty seven million. They've just been
(26:10):
going down. Yeah, so ifthis does, if this stays on the
same trajectory, I'm only looking atsomewhere around one hundred million. Is that
good? Is that not good?I think there's some other ones that have
potential to maybe do better. Yeah. I kind of had to slot it
in in the same position. Iwould have done the same thing. I
think, even though begrudgingly, weshould be done with Transformers, or at
(26:33):
least let's take a decade long breakor something. At least get it out
of our system. But I thinkit's good for one hundred million. Here's
what I will say it has goingfor it. It's not a Michael Bay
Transformers, so maybe it'll be better. Yeah. You know, people be
like this the best one. Imean, I'll say the last couple they
were auditory nightmares, like a barrageof like what it was just over stimulation
(27:00):
almost right visually and audibly. Soit does have that benefits. It's a
different director, which hopefully will makean impact. I don't know. We'll
see. So what do you got? Now? What do you got on
your list? I'm gonna go withElemental, the Pixar movie, which looks
decent. Meet the residence of ElementsCity Air usually has their head in the
(27:22):
cloud. Oh my new jacket.Earth can be a little seedy. Nothing
we're going on here, just alittle pruning. Water is always getting into
something and fire as ordered. Werun a little hot hoping you know,
(27:51):
there's like one hundred, one hundredand fifty million something to be juiced out
of that movie, or it turnsout to be really good and get some
family buds going. I don't know, though. It's hard to trust picks
are anymore, which is crazy.This is the brand of Wally of inside
out of all these like you know, it was like I can't miss for
like fifteen years, and now itmight be dead in the water and we'll
(28:11):
find out what elemental for sure.If it is, I'll agree with you.
It's really really low on my likealternate lists. This is where we're
getting down to like one hundred millionor less. Maybe, or you're looking
for that gem in the rough kindof what could potentially break out of a
pack. Maybe. Yeah. Sowe always talk about horror movies in the
(28:33):
summer. I'm gonna go with onethat's maybe not on everyone's list, but
does look pretty good. I didwatch the trailer. I'm gonna go with
the Boogeyman. Well, when thereare scary things we don't understand, our
minds try to fill in the blanks. Sometimes the best thing to do is
(28:56):
to face it. Okay, it'sfrom the mind of Stephen King. As
they say, I think it's gonnabe pretty good. We saw that trailer
for that before Something in the movietheater and it got pretty good reaction.
I thought it looked pretty good.It was based on a Stephen King short
story from the producers of Stranger Things. There's always a few horror movies in
(29:17):
the summer that do it that click. You know, people are like into
that. That could be a goodone. One thing I'll tell you is,
you know, looking at the listthis year. There are some where
I was like, if I hadeight or nine picks, I might pick
that, yeah, which is notusually how it goes. There was nothing,
you know, you got to midJuly and it was the summer was
over all, right, So thatbeing the case, my number six,
(29:41):
I think I'm going to go with. I think I know what you're gonna
pick? Do you probably? Ijust feel torn here. I like,
this is what I have, likesomething. I want to pick something I
and then I'm looking at some ofthe these other movies where I'm like,
hmmm, what will actually make money? So let's see what makes sense here.
(30:07):
I know I've got to get toit. Get to it. Take
your time, take your time.This is your opportunity, chat, This
is your opportunity to come back,show the world, show the listeners that
you have what it takes. Stayin this game. Yeah yeah, get
down with it. I can seeyou strategizing right now, and I'm thinking
to myself, talk a little intohis brain. God is a bullet.
(30:33):
God is a Bullet's looking pretty good? What do you think of asteroid City?
I want to see asteroid City.Yeah, I feel like Asteroid City.
I have trouble with. I'm like, it's probably not going to be
low enough to be the minimizer one, but also not going to be big
enough to be you know, valuable. That's kind of where I land on
(30:53):
it. But I want to seeit's a Wes Anderson movie, which I
typically like, Yeah, I thinkit'll be entertaining. His movies are art,
you know, every scene's like apicture. I'm gonna just go with
my gut. I'm gonna pick withwhat I want to pick and hope that
it breaks out. And that isI'm gonna go with the Jennifer Lawrence raunchy
comedy, no hard feelings. He'sjust been so worried about our son.
(31:17):
He's going to Princeton in the fall. I've heard of it. You know.
We tried everything to bring him outof his shell. He doesn't come
out of his room and he doesn'ttalk to girls drinks. So when you
say date him, do you meandate him or date him? Yes,
datum, datum hard, I'll dathis brains out. I think we could
be looking for something like that thissummer rather than pick one of these stupid
(31:40):
middle of the road, you know, more big studio movies that might flop,
audiences might be looking for like acomedy, kind of like a rom
com like this could end up just, you know, kind of fizzling.
But I'd rather take a shot onsomething like that. All Right. I
feel like it's a long shot andI like it. All right. Last
(32:00):
two, I am gonna go withsomething that I want to pick as well
as something that I think might surpriseus. It might surprise us. I'm
gonna go with the equalizer. Threenine seconds. That's what I'll give you
to decide your fate. Okay,I think Denzel Washington. You know,
(32:24):
the first couple did a round onehundred million. It's going to be in
that lower tier. But I thinkpeople want to see Denzel Washington. It's
going to bump out a trilogy ofthat series, which I think is really
important. The first two were reallygood. Have you ever watched the first
two of those? No, I'venever actually watched this. The first one
spectacular, second one was pretty good. And I will say, you know,
(32:45):
I know he's typecast a lot oftimes for whatever reason. He was
just great. He was a greatequalizer and maybe he will equalize my list.
Yeah, I think that's a goodpick and those movies have done solidly.
You know, it comes out thelast weekend of the summer, that's
Labor Day weekend, so we'll haveto see how that performs over time.
(33:07):
But it's kind of a clear runwayfor a little bit too. You know,
there's like nothing else at that time, so he's got a little bit
of space and people loved Denzel,So I think that's good for like at
least seventy five million. I thinkthat's a good pickup at the end.
Potential optimizer pick down there when youget it at the last pick Yeah,
(33:27):
since it is that last weekend,what is the rule? Do I have
the run while it's in the theaters? Right? I think what we did
previously because shang Chi, you know, in that year, opened that weekend.
I think we kept it open untillike the end of September. Okay,
I couldn't remember if we could justkept it while it was in the
US theaters because if it's like fouror five weeks, I figured, you
(33:49):
know, if it's still if it'sstill going, we'll keep it going.
I think, yeah, the generalrule was like keep it going to the
end of September because we hate tohave the show like too far out for
the summer. But all right,what's number seven? Dude? What do
you see? This is now wherestrategy comes into play, because I can
look at your list, I cansee what I think is going to be
the lowest one, which is probablywhen I look at it, maybe the
(34:10):
Boogeyman in terms of return, andI can go for the minimizer then,
but I also want to maximize thatminimum. Now, maybe we are talking
Asteroid City or something like that,or Strays, you know, one of
those movies which I want to makesure it doesn't make too much. You
know, I can bring something likethat in and try to if I can
(34:34):
get like a thirty million, getthat kind of bonus in there. That's
where strategy comes in. But again, you know, being careful to kind
of walk that line. Those arethe two movies I'm bouncing around, Asteroid
City or Strays. Which one doI think will make the most without going
over It's like prices, right,rules one dollar. So let's go with
(34:58):
in this last slot, Let's takeStrays. Let's put it in there.
Today is going to be the bestday ever. I love sunshine, I
love butterflies, but more than anything, I love done Okay, shut them
up. Sure, that's done.The best owner in the world. We're
(35:23):
playing this game called Fetch Fetch.He drops me off really far away and
drive home without me. Let's seewhat it does. Is that what you
thought I was gonna pick? Yes, yeah, okay, And you didn't
know what you're gonna pick. AndI still knew what you were going to
pick. I know you know mymind better than me. It's just we've
talked about in the past. Ourlists are a reflection of us, you
(35:45):
know, I mean, whether ornot we pick stuff we don't want to
pick sometimes, which happens. Westill have those movies where they're a reflection
of what we want to see orwhat we are excited to see, you
know, regardless if it's a goodmovie or not. Yeah, I think
you just gave me the opening forit. Like the Equalizer. If you
were to pick something smaller than that, the Equalizer I think will make good
(36:07):
money. If you were to picksomething smaller than that, then I would
have either tried to pick something smallor try to go on something bigger.
You know. There were a fewof these movies. They didn't end up
going on here, but there arethree of them. In particular where I'm
like, they'll probably make decent money, but I don't want to pick them.
Haunted Mansion, Blue Beetle, TheMeg two. Yeah, well,
(36:28):
you know, all I know isyou hurt my feelings. No, not,
you hurt my feeling Shad. I'mtalking about I hope the comedy with
Julia Louise Dreyfuss that you didn't pickabout My Father, the comedy with Robert
de Niro. What about Grand Treismo. I loved that video game when I
was younger, and it's from thedirector of District nine. District nine.
(36:50):
Yeah, I'm surprised you didn't gowith something that I know is near and
dear to your heart and past picks, even though you don't know a lot
about it. The Blumhouse horror movieInsidious. No they listen. Oh yeah,
I was thinking about Insidious, RedDorks that that's like good for like
sixty seventy five something like that.You know, we've talked about this in
the past, Blumhouse. You know, they tend to put movies that are
(37:14):
just track reformers. Yeah, honestly, we could have gone ten and had
pretty interesting list this year, whichlast year, there's no way we could
have got ten. So what doyou think? What do you think of
your list? You're happy with whatyou got. Seems like you got a
lot of the things you wanted.I feel sad I didn't get any Ina
Jones because I think that's going todo really well. I have really no
idea about these last picks and thestrategy behind the bonuses. I'll be honest,
(37:37):
I don't know how that will playout. So that's all just going
to be sure luck, which you'llprobably. I think you're better at those
kinds of things than I am.So getting the last pick, I think
I have the chance to get theminimizer one. The other one that one,
I have no idea where that one'sgoing to go. So you think
that last pick is going to beyour minimizer maximizer, I think so.
(38:00):
I think Strays when I look atthese movies, I think Strays, I
mean no hard feelings, could alsonot do very well. So I think
Strays is kind of going to bethe movie when I look at that's going
to do the least the lowest number. I think my top four make me
a shoe in for the winner.Potentially. The only thing that's a real
unknown for me is how those aregoing to hit up against Indiana Jones,
(38:22):
Because I think Indiana Jones, likeyou said, it does have the potential
of doing so well that it knockslike two of my top two out of
the list, you know what Imean, like evens them out. Yeah,
that's big five. I just don'tknow. I know they're gonna do
well like Indiana Jones, The Flash, Little Mermaid, Spider Verse, Mission
Impossible. They're all gonna do good. I don't know how good they're gonna
(38:43):
do, you know what I mean. I don't know if one's really going
to blow up or one's gonna likedisappoint slightly. By disappoint, I mean
making like two hundred million versus youknow, the two hundred versus the four
hundred or like something makes five hundred. That's a big difference. So that
could change things, Barbie. Ifeel like it's a real wild card.
How that does could like really determinethings. If that ends up being like,
(39:05):
you know, a two hundred andfifty million dollar movie, that could
really push things into your favor.So I don't know. I like when
I look at both these lists,I like them, you know what I
mean. Last year. It looksso thin at the end now that I
look at this and I'm like,oh, these is a good collection of
movies here. Yeah, it'll beinteresting to see is the summer wears on.
We're not even at the beginning yet, So now we haven't even started
(39:28):
yet. What do you think?What's your number one movie? Which movie
on these of all these movies areyou most excited to see? Probably most
excited to see Spider Man across theSpider Verse. It just was such a
visually beautiful animation the first time around, So I don't know, I'm just
kind of excited to see that,and I know my kids are too.
(39:50):
Yeah, it was so unique,That's what I'll say about the first one.
It was so different from anything elsethat I hope this one lives up
to it. I hope it's asgood. And first one definitely had that
a prize factor. Probably I'm probablyin the Indiana Jones camp, you know,
that's probably, And I hope IndianaJones just can finish strong, you
know what I mean. Yeah,I hope it has the surprise factor.
Honestly, I hope it like whenyou go into it and you're like,
(40:13):
you leave that movie and go Ifeel really good. Because I've said this
before, Crystal Skull, I didn'thave that feeling. I felt like,
oh, I felt a little bitof heartache more than anything. But Crystal
Skull, you also went in expectinglike this is gonna be amazing. Now
I'm going in expecting like, oh, I don't know. That's what I'm
(40:34):
hoping, that it'll be that surprisehit even you know where like people are
excited about it. Yeah, TransformersRise at the Beast. Will you be
there like opening weekend or you justgonna like second day? I don't know.
I mean, I always have tosupport my list, right, but
gotta we'll see see what I couldtalk my kids into seeing. You know,
like you're going You're going to seeTransformers Rise of the Past. No,
(40:57):
Daddy, please please don't take methis. See that, Like I
just now was able to sleep withmy lights off. I can't wait till
we get started, and then disappointmentand misery sets in. All right,
Well, tune into our follow upepisode in September when we crunch the numbers
and see whose team takes this year'ssummer box office trophy. That's it for
(41:20):
this episode of Movies and marketing untilnext time, Let's bade the Black.
I'll be back. It's not comingback.
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